Discussion Paper

Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 6, 5553–5594, 2013

Geoscientific

Open Access
www.geosci-model-dev-discuss.net/6/5553/2013/
doi:10.5194/gmdd-6-5553-2013 Model Development GMDD
© Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Discussions
6, 5553–5594, 2013

This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Geoscientific Model
Monitoring
Development (GMD). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in GMD if available.
Euro-Mediterranean

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droughts
Suitability of modelled and remotely

Discussion Paper
C. Szczypta et al.
sensed essential climate variables for
monitoring Euro-Mediterranean droughts Title Page

Abstract Introduction
C. Szczypta1 , J.-C. Calvet1 , F. Maignan2 , W. Dorigo3 , F. Baret4 , and P. Ciais2

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Conclusions References

Discussion Paper
1
CNRM-GAME, Météo-France, UMR3589, CNRS, Toulouse, France
2 Tables Figures
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL,
CEA/CNRS/UVSQ-UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
3
Department of Geodesy and Geoinformation, Vienna University of Technology, J I
Vienna, Austria
4 J I
INRA, EMMAH-UMR1114, Avignon, France

Received: 2 October 2013 – Accepted: 25 October 2013 – Published: 6 November 2013 Back Close

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Correspondence to: J.-C. Calvet ([email protected])

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Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.
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Interactive Discussion

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 Discussion Paper
Abstract
GMDD
Two new remotely sensed Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Surface Soil Moisture (SSM)
satellite products are compared with two sets of simulations of the ORCHIDEE and 6, 5553–5594, 2013
ISBA-A-gs land surface models to investigate how recent droughts affected vegetation
5 over the Euro-Mediterranean area. We analyze the interannual variability over the pe- Monitoring
riod 1991–2008. The leaf onset and the Length of the vegetation Growing Period (LGP) Euro-Mediterranean

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are derived from the satellite-derived LAI and from the modelled LAI. The LGP values droughts

Discussion Paper
produced by the photosynthesis-driven phenology model of ISBA-A-gs are closer to
the satellite-derived LAI LGP than those produced by ORCHIDEE. In the latter, the C. Szczypta et al.
10 phenology is based on a growing degree-day model for leaf onset, and on both climatic
conditions and leaf life span for senescence. Further, the interannual variability of LAI
is better captured by ISBA-A-gs than by ORCHIDEE. The summer 2003 drought case Title Page

study shows a relatively good agreement of the modelled LAI anomalies with the ob- Abstract Introduction
servations, but the two models underestimate plant regrowth in the autumn. A better

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15 representation of the root-zone soil moisture profile could improve the simulations of Conclusions References

Discussion Paper
both models. The satellite-derived SSM is compared with SSM simulations of ISBA-A-
Tables Figures
gs, only, as ORCHIDEE has no explicit representation of SSM. Overall, the ISBA-A-gs
simulations of SSM agree well with the satellite-derived SSM and are used to detect re-
J I
gions where the satellite product could be improved. Finally, a correspondence is found
20 between the interannual variability of detrended SSM and LAI. The predictability of LAI J I
is less pronounced using remote sensing observations than using simulated variables.
However, consistent results are found in July for the croplands of Ukraine and southern Back Close

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Russia.

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1 Introduction Printer-friendly Version

Interactive Discussion
25 Long time series of terrestrial Essential Climate Variables (ECV) are needed to evalu-
ate the impact of climate change on environment and human activities. Over land, new
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ECV products are now available and they can be used to characterize extreme events,
such as droughts.
2 −2
GMDD
The Leaf Area Index (LAI) is expressed in m m and is defined as the total one-
6, 5553–5594, 2013
sided area of photosynthetic tissue per unit horizontal ground area. Monitoring LAI is
5 essential for assessing the vegetation trends in the climate change context, and for de-
veloping applications in agriculture, environment, carbon fluxes and climate monitoring. Monitoring
The LAI seasonal cycle can be monitored at a global scale using medium resolution Euro-Mediterranean

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optical satellite sensors (Myneni et al., 2002; Baret et al., 2007, 2013; Weiss et al., droughts

Discussion Paper
2007). Another way to provide LAI over large areas and over long periods of time is
C. Szczypta et al.
10 to use generic Land Surface Models (LSM), such as ISBA-A-gs (Calvet et al., 1998;
Gibelin et al., 2006) or ORCHIDEE (Krinner et al., 2005).
Soil moisture is a key ECV in hydrological and agricultural processes. It constrains
Title Page
plant transpiration and photosynthesis (Seneviratne et al., 2010) and is one of the limit-
ing factors of vegetation development and growth (Champagne et al., 2012), especially Abstract Introduction
15 in water-limited regions such as the Mediterranean zone, from Spring to Autumn. Mi-

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Conclusions References
crowave remote sensing observations can be related to surface soil moisture (SSM)

Discussion Paper
rather than to root-zone soil moisture, as the sensing depth is limited to the first cen- Tables Figures
timetres of the soil surface (Wagner et al., 1999; Kerr et al., 2007). LSMs are gen-
erally able to provide soil moisture simulations over multiple depths, depending upon J I
20 their structure, i.e. bucket models vs. more complex vertically discretized soil water
diffusion schemes (Dirmeyer et al., 1999; Georgakakos and Carpenter, 2006). Their J I
outputs are affected by uncertainties in the atmospheric forcing, model physics and
Back Close
parameters. However, Rüdiger et al. (2009) showed the usefulness of using simulated

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SSM as a benchmark to intercompare independent satellite-derived SSM estimates,

Discussion Paper
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25 and Albergel et al. (2013a) used hindcast SSM simulations to provide an independent
check on the quality of remotely sensed SSM over time. Conversely, remotely sensed Printer-friendly Version
SSM can be used to benchmark hindcast SSM simulations derived from two indepen-
dent modelling platforms (Albergel et al., 2013b). The direct validation of climate data Interactive Discussion

records, based on in situ observations, is not easy at a continental scale, as in situ

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 Discussion Paper
observations are limited in space and time. Therefore, indirect validation plays a key
role. The comparison of ECV products derived from satellite observations with ECV GMDD
products derived from LSM hindcast simulations is particularly useful. Inconsistencies
6, 5553–5594, 2013
between two independent products permit detecting shortcomings and improving the
5 next versions of the products.
The Mediterranean basin will probably be affected by climate change to a large ex- Monitoring
tent (Gibelin and Déqué, 2003; Planton et al., 2012). Over Europe and Mediterranean Euro-Mediterranean

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areas, the annual mean temperature of the air is likely to increase more than the global droughts

Discussion Paper
mean (IPCC assessment, 2007). In most Mediterranean regions, this trend would be
C. Szczypta et al.
10 associated with a decrease in annual precipitation (Christensen et al., 2007). In this
context, it is important to build monitoring systems of the land surface variables over
this region, able to describe extreme climatic events such as droughts and to analyze
Title Page
their severity with respect to past droughts.
This study was performed in the framework of the HYMEX (Hydrological cycle in Abstract Introduction
15 the Mediterranean EXperiment) initiative (HYMEX, 2008; Drobinski et al., 2009a, b,

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Conclusions References
2010), with the aim of investigating the interannual variability of LAI and SSM ECV

Discussion Paper
products over the Euro-Mediterranean area. While an attempt was made in a previ- Tables Figures
ous work (Szczypta et al., 2012) to simulate the hydrological droughts over the Euro-
Mediterranean area, this study focuses on the monitoring of agricultural droughts. Us- J I
20 ing the modelling framework implemented by Szczypta et al. (2012) for ISBA-A-gs over
the 1991–2008 period, we compare ISBA-A-gs and ORCHIDEE simulations of LAI, J I
and we evaluate new homogenized remotely sensed LAI and SSM datasets. The lat-
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ter is compared with ISBA-A-gs simulations of SSM, as ORCHIDEE has no explicit

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representation of this quantity.

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25 The data, including the leaf onset and the Length of the vegetation Growing Period
(LGP) derived from the observed and simulated LAI are first described. Then, anoma- Printer-friendly Version
lies of the detrended LAI are compared over the 1991–2008 period with a focus on the
2003 western European drought (Rebetez et al., 2006; Vidal et al., 2010). Lastly, we Interactive Discussion

investigate to what extent SSM observations can be used to predict mean anomalous

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vegetation state conditions in the current growing season. The interannual SSM vari-
ability, resulting from satellite observations and LSM simulations, is used as an indicator GMDD
able to anticipate LAI anomalies during key periods.
6, 5553–5594, 2013

2 Data and methods Monitoring

Euro-Mediterranean
Several data sets were produced in this study or collected over the Euro-Mediterranean

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5
droughts
area (either model simulations, atmospheric variables, or satellite products). The ERA-

Discussion Paper
Interim atmospheric variables used to run the LSMs are available on a reduced Gaus- C. Szczypta et al.
◦ ◦ ◦ ◦
sian grid (of about 0.7 ×0.7 ) and projected to a 0.5 ×0.5 grid (Szczypta et al., 2012).
All the data sets are aggregated on the same 0.5◦ × 0.5◦ grid using linear interpolation
10 and averaging techniques. The 1991–2008 18 yr period is considered, as in Szczypta Title Page
et al. (2012). From 1991 onward, SSM observations from active (ERS-1/2, ASCAT) and
Abstract Introduction
passive (SSM/I, TMI, AMSR-E) microwave sensors are available.

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Conclusions References
2.1 Models

Discussion Paper
Tables Figures
Although the generic ISBA-A-gs and ORCHIDEE LSMs share the same general struc-
15 ture, based on the description of the main biophysical processes, they were developed J I
independently and differ in the way photosynthesis, transpiration, and phenology are
represented. The main differences between the two models are summarized in Ta- J I
ble 1. More details about the differences between the two models can be found in
Back Close
Lafont et al. (2012).

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Discussion Paper
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20 2.1.1 ORCHIDEE
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ORCHIDEE (Krinner et al., 2005) is a process-based terrestrial biosphere model de-
signed to simulate energy, water and carbon fluxes of ecosystems and is based Interactive Discussion
on three sub-modules: (1) SECHIBA (Schématisation des Echanges Hydriques à
l’Interface Biosphère-Atmosphère) is a land surface energy and water balance model
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(Ducoudré et al., 1993), (2) STOMATE (Saclay Toulouse Orsay Model for the Analysis
of Terrestrial Ecosystems) is a land carbon cycle model (Friedlingstein et al., 1999; GMDD
Ruimy et al., 1996; Botta et al., 2000), and (3) LPJ (Lund-Postdam-Jena) is a dy-
6, 5553–5594, 2013
namic model of long-term vegetation dynamics including competition and disturbances
5 (Sitch et al., 2003). ORCHIDEE uses a phenology model based on Growing Degree
Days (GDD) for leaf onset. The parameters of the GDD model were calibrated by Botta Monitoring
et al. (2000) using remotely sensed NDVI observations. The LAI cycle simulated by OR- Euro-Mediterranean

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CHIDEE is characterized by a dormancy phase, a sharp increase of LAI over a few days droughts

Discussion Paper
at the leaf onset, a more gradual growth governed by photosynthesis, until a predefined
C. Szczypta et al.
10 maximum LAI value has been reached (LAImax in Table 1). Note that the prescribed
LAImax is not necessarily reached in a simulation over a grid cell. The senescence
phase presents an exponential decline of LAI. The leaf offset depends on leaf life span
Title Page
and climatic parameters. The ORCHIDEE 1.9.5.1 tag was used to perform these sim-
ulations. Since the simple bucket soil hydrology version of this version of ORCHIDEE Abstract Introduction
15 has no explicit representation of SSM, only the ORCHIDEE LAI variable is used.

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Conclusions References

Discussion Paper
2.1.2 ISBA-A-gs
Tables Figures

ISBA-A-gs is a CO2 -responsive LSM (Calvet et al., 1998, 2004; Gibelin et al., 2006;
Calvet et al., 2008), simulating the diurnal cycle of carbon and water vapour fluxes, to- J I

gether with LAI and soil moisture evolution. The soil hydrology is represented by three J I
20 layers: a thin surface layer, a root-zone layer, and a deep soil layer (Boone et al., 1999)
contributing to evaporation through capillarity rises. Over the Euro-Mediterranean area, Back Close

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the rooting depth varies from 0.5–1.5 m for grasslands, to 2.0–2.5 m for broadleaf

Discussion Paper
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forests. The model includes an original representation of the impact of drought on
photosynthesis (Calvet, 2000; Calvet et al., 2004). The version of the model used in
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25 this study corresponds to the “NIT” simulations performed by Szczypta et al. (2012).
This version interactively calculates the leaf biomass and LAI, using a plant growth Interactive Discussion
model (Calvet et al., 1998; Calvet and Soussana, 2001) driven by photosynthesis. In
contrast to ORCHIDEE, no GDD-based phenology model is used in ISBA-A-gs, as
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the vegetation growth and senescence are entirely driven by photosynthesis. The leaf
biomass is supplied with the carbon assimilated by photosynthesis, and decreased by GMDD
a turnover and a respiration term. Turnover is increased by a deficit in photosynthesis.
6, 5553–5594, 2013
The leaf onset is triggered by sufficient photosynthesis levels and a minimum LAI value
5 is prescribed (LAImin in Table 1). The maximum annual value of LAI is prognostic, i.e.
it is predicted by the model. Gibelin et al. (2006) and Brut et al. (2009) showed that Monitoring
ISBA-A-gs provides reasonable LAI values at regional and global scales under various Euro-Mediterranean

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environmental conditions. Calvet et al. (2012) showed that the model can be used to droughts

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assess the interannual variability of fodder and cereal crops production over regions of
C. Szczypta et al.
10 France. The ISBA-A-gs LSM is embedded into the SURFEX modelling platform (Mas-
son et al., 2013), and the simulations performed in this study correspond to SURFEX
version 6.2 runs.
Title Page

2.1.3 Design of the simulations Abstract Introduction

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In this study, the two models use the same spatial distribution of vegetation types, Conclusions References

Discussion Paper
15 based on the ECOCLIMAP-II (Faroux et al., 2013) database of ecosystems and model
◦ ◦ ◦ Tables Figures
parameters, over the area 11 W–62 E, 25–75 N (Fig. 1) covering the Mediterranean
basin, northern Europe, Scandinavia and part of Russia. Further, ISBA-A-gs and OR-
CHIDEE are driven by the same atmospheric forcing, the ERA-Interim global ECMWF J I
◦
atmospheric reanalysis (projected onto a 0.5 grid). Because the ERA-Interim precip- J I
20 itation is underestimated (Szczypta et al., 2011), the monthly Global Precipitation Cli-
matology Centre (GPCC) precipitation product is used to bias-correct the 3 hourly ERA- Back Close

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Interim estimates (Szczypta et al., 2012). Irrigation is not represented in this study.

Discussion Paper
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The two models are run at a spatial resolution of 0.5◦ , over the ECOCLIMAP-II Euro-
Mediterranean area, corresponding to:
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25 – 103 ecosystem classes used to map the fractional coverage of twelve plant func-
Interactive Discussion
tional types (PFT) (see Figs. 7 and 9 in Faroux et al., 2013, respectively);
– 8142 land grid cells.
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The fractional coverage of the various PFTs is provided by ECOCLIMAP-II at a spatial
resolution of 1 km, aggregated at a spatial resolution of 0.5◦ , and the two models ac- GMDD
count for the subgrid variability by simulating separate LAI values for each surface type
6, 5553–5594, 2013
present in the grid-cell. ISBA-A-gs simulates separate SSM values for each surface
5 type present in the grid-cell. Figure 2 shows the spatial distribution of the dominant
vegetation types over the studied domain. Monitoring
Euro-Mediterranean

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2.2 ESA-CCI surface soil moisture droughts

Discussion Paper
The European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI) project dedicated to C. Szczypta et al.
soil moisture has produced a global 32 yr SSM time series described in Liu et al. (2011,
10 2012). The daily data are available on a 0.25◦ grid and can be downloaded from
http://www.esa-soilmoisture-cci.org/. Several SSM products based on either active or Title Page
passive single satellite microwave sensors were combined to build a blended har-
Abstract Introduction
monized time series of SSM at the global scale from 1978 to 2010: scatterometer-

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based products from ERS-1/2 and ASCAT (July 1991–May 2006 and 2007–2010, re- Conclusions References

Discussion Paper
15 spectively), and radiometer-based products from SMMR, SSM/I, TMI, and AMSR-E
Tables Figures
(November 1978–August 1987, July 1987–2007, 1998–2008, July 2002–2010, respec-
tively). The method used to combine the different data sets is described in details in
Liu et al. (2011, 2012) and takes advantage of the assets of both passive and active J I

systems. In most of the Euro-Mediterranean area, active microwave products are used. J I
20 The passive microwave products mainly cover North Africa. In some parts of the area
(e.g. in Spain), the average of both active and passive microwave products is used (see Back Close

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Fig. 14 in Liu et al., 2012).

Discussion Paper
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The ESA-CCI dataset was used by Dorigo et al. (2012) to analyze trends in SSM,
while Muñoz et al. (2013) and Barichivich et al. (2013) showed its strong connectivity
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25 with vegetation development.
Interactive Discussion

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2.3 GEOV1 LAI
GMDD
The European Copernicus Global Land Service provides a global LAI product in near-
real-time called GEOV1 (Baret et al., 2013). This product was extensively validated and 6, 5553–5594, 2013
benchmarked with pre-existing satellite-derived LAI products using in situ LAI observa-
5 tions at 48 sites in Europe, Africa, and North America (Camacho et al., 2013). It was Monitoring
found that the GEOV1 LAI correlates very well with in situ observations (r 2 = 0.81), with Euro-Mediterranean
a root mean square error of 0.74 m2 m−2 . The GEOV1 scores are better than those

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droughts

Discussion Paper
obtained by other products. A 32 yr LAI time series based on the GEOV1 algorithm
was produced by the GEOLAND-2 project. Ten-daily data are available from 1981 to C. Szczypta et al.
10 present and can be downloaded on http://land.copernicus.eu/global/. For the period
before 1999, the AVHRR Long Term Data Record (LTDR) reflectances (Vermote et al.,
2009) are used to generate the LAI product at a spatial resolution of 5 km. From 1999 Title Page

onward, the SPOT-VGT reflectances are used to generate the LAI product at a spatial Abstract Introduction
resolution of 1 km. The harmonized time series is produced by neural networks trained

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15 to produce consistent estimates of LAI from the reflectance measured by different sen- Conclusions References

Discussion Paper
sors (Verger et al., 2008).
Tables Figures

2.4 Seasonal and interannual variability

J I
2.4.1 SSM
J I

In this study, we focus on the seasonal and interannual variability of SSM after remov- Back Close

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20 ing the trends from both satellite-derived and simulated time series. The detrended

Discussion Paper
time series at a given location and for a given 10-daily period of the year is obtained Full Screen / Esc
by subtracting the least-squares-fit straight line. The same 10-daily periods as for the
GEOV1 LAI product are used. Hereafter, this quantity is referred to as SSMd, for both Printer-friendly Version
satellite observations and model simulations.
Interactive Discussion
25 In order to characterize the day-to-day variability of SSMd, anomalies are calculated
using Eq. (6) in Albergel et al. (2009). For each SSMd estimate at day (j), a period F
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 is defined, with F = [j − 17d, j + 17d]. If at least five measurements are available in this

Discussion Paper
period of time, the average SSMd value and the standard deviation are first calculated. GMDD
Then, the scaled anomaly AnoSSM is computed:
6, 5553–5594, 2013
SSMd(j) − SSMd(F )
AnoSSM (j) = (1)
stdev(SSMd(F )) Monitoring
Euro-Mediterranean

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5 This procedure is applied to the ESA-CCI SSM observations and to the ISBA-A-gs droughts

Discussion Paper
SSM simulations.
C. Szczypta et al.
2.4.2 LAI

Three metrics are calculated to characterize the seasonal and interannual variability: Title Page
the leaf onset, the leaf offset, and the monthly (or 10-daily) scaled anomaly, for both
10 satellite observations and model simulations. The LGP is defined as the period of time Abstract Introduction

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between the leaf onset and the leaf offset of a given annual cycle. The leaf onset Conclusions References
(respectively, offset) is determined as the 10-daily period when the departure of LAI

Discussion Paper
from its minimum annual value becomes higher (respectively, lower) than 40 % of the Tables Figures
amplitude of the annual cycle (Gibelin et al., 2006; Brut et al., 2009). This method is
15 sufficiently robust to be applied to both deciduous and non-perennial vegetation, and J I
to evergreen vegetation presenting a sufficiently marked annual cycle of LAI.
J I
The interannual variability of LAI for various seasons is represented by monthly or
10-daily scaled anomalies defined as: Back Close

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DLAI(i, yr)

Discussion Paper
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AnoLAI (i, yr) = (2)
stdev(DLAI(i, :))
Printer-friendly Version
20 where DLAI(i, yr) represents the difference between LAI for a particular month (i rang-
ing from 1 to 12) or 10 day period (i ranging from 1 to 36) of year yr and its average Interactive Discussion
interannual value, and stdev(DLAI(i, :)) is the standard deviation of DLAI for a particular
month or 10 day period. This procedure is applied to the GEOV1 observations and to
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the ORCHIDEE and ISBA-A-gs LAI simulations. In the case of GEOV1, in order to cope
with shortcomings in the harmonization of satellite products, the calculation of DLAI is GMDD
made separately for the 1991–1998 AVHRR and for the 1999–2008 SPOT-VGT peri-
6, 5553–5594, 2013
ods. It was checked that the resulting time series have a zero mean and present no
5 trend.
Finally, the Annual Coefficient of Variation (ACV), is computed as the ratio of the Monitoring
standard deviation of the mean annual LAI to the long term mean annual LAI, over the Euro-Mediterranean

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1991–2008 period. ACV characterizes the relative interannual variability of LAI. droughts

Discussion Paper
C. Szczypta et al.
3 Results

10 3.1 Modelled vs. observed SSM Title Page

Figure 3 shows the absolute (original SSMd data) and anomaly (AnoSSM ) correlation Abstract Introduction
between the ISBA-A-gs SSM simulations and the ESA-CCI SSM product for the 1991–

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Conclusions References
2008 period. In general, good absolute positive correlations are observed over all the

Discussion Paper
sub-regions of Fig. 1. The best anomaly correlations are observed over the croplands Tables Figures
15 of Ukraine and southern Russia. However, negative correlations are observed in moun-
tainous areas of the Mediterranean basin, in southern Turkey (Taurus mountains) and J I
in western Iran (Zagros mountains). In order to understand the negative absolute cor-
J I
relations in Fig. 3, we plotted (Fig. 4) the same figure as Fig. 3, except for the 2003–
2008 period over which the AMSR-E product is available, using either the ESA-CCI Back Close

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20 blended (active/passive) product or the original AMSR-E product. While the results ob-

Discussion Paper
tained with the blended product are similar to Fig. 3 over the whole domain and those Full Screen / Esc
obtained with AMSR-E are similar to Fig. 3 over the Mediterranean basin, the negative
correlations are not observed in the AMSR-E product. Over Northern Europe and Rus- Printer-friendly Version
sia–Scandinavia, the correlations obtained for AMSR-E are lower than with the blended
Interactive Discussion
25 product. This shows that the blending technique used by Liu et al. (2012) is appropri-
ate, apart from mountainous areas in southern Turkey and in western Iran where the
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active product is used, whereas the passive product is more relevant in these regions.
Figure 5 compares the absolute and anomaly squared correlation coefficients (r 2 ) of GMDD
the blended product and AMSR-E over the 2003–2008 period. Higher values are gen-
6, 5553–5594, 2013
erally observed for the blended product. The AMSR-E product is more consistent than
5 the blended product with the ISBA-A-gs simulations over 24 % of the grid cells for the
absolute correlations, and over 17 % of the grid cells for the anomaly correlations. Monitoring
Euro-Mediterranean

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3.2 Simulated and observed phenology droughts

Discussion Paper
Figures 6 and 7 present leaf onset and LGP maps derived from the modelled LAI C. Szczypta et al.
and from the GEOV1 LAI. Consistent leaf onset features (Fig. 6) are observed across
10 satellite and model products: while the vegetation growing cycle may start at wintertime
in some areas of the Mediterranean basin (e.g. North Africa, southern Spain), the leaf Title Page
onset occurs later in northern Europe (from February to July) and even later in Russia–
Abstract Introduction
Scandinavia (from April to August). In contrast to leaf onset, results are quite different

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from one data set to another for LGP (Fig. 7). In general, the two models tend to Conclusions References

Discussion Paper
15 overestimate LGP. However, the LGP values produced by the photosynthesis-driven
Tables Figures
phenology model of ISBA-A-gs are closer to the satellite-derived LAI LGP than those
produced by ORCHIDEE. On average, ORCHIDEE gives relatively high LGP values
(6.1 ± 0.9 month), compared to ISBA-A-gs and GEOV1 (4.5 ± 1.1 month and 3.9 ± 1.1 J I

month, respectively). The largest LGP differences between GEOV1 and ISBA-A-gs J I
20 are obtained in the Iberian Peninsula and over Russia–Scandinavia, where GEOV1
observes longer and shorter vegetation cycles, respectively. Back Close

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Figure 8 shows the simulated and observed average annual cycle of LAI for the three

Discussion Paper
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regions indicated in Fig. 1. It appears clearly that GEOV1 tends to produce shorter
growing seasons than the other products, apart from the Mediterranean basin where
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25 the GEOV1 and ISBA-A-gs annual cycles of LAI are similar. In Russia–Scandinavia,
the vegetation growth in ISBA-A-gs presents a delay of about one month. This delay in Interactive Discussion
the leaf onset is not visible in Fig. 6. This contradiction is related to very low LAI value
of ISBA-A-gs at wintertime. The prescribed minimum LAI value (LAImin in Table 1) is
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lower than the GEOV1 observations at wintertime and this bias has an impact on the
leaf onset calculation. If LAImin was unbiased, the calculated leaf onset would occur GMDD
later. On the other hand, the prescribed maximum LAI value in ORCHIDEE is higher
6, 5553–5594, 2013
than the observations, especially in the Mediterranean basin. On average, the prog-
5 nostic LAImin of ORCHIDEE is higher than for the other products. Figure 8 shows that
the ORCHIDEE delay in the leaf onset over northern Europe and Russia–Scandinavia Monitoring
is caused by minimum LAI values reached in March (one to two months after GEOV1) Euro-Mediterranean

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and maximum LAI values reached one month after GEOV1 (in July for northern Europe droughts

Discussion Paper
and in August for Russia–Scandinavia).
C. Szczypta et al.
10 3.3 Representation of the interannual variability of LAI

In order to assess the interannual variability across seasons, 10-daily AnoLAI values Title Page
were put end-to-end to constitute anomaly time series for each of the three LAI prod-
Abstract Introduction
ucts (GEOV1, ISBA-A-gs, ORCHIDEE). Figure 9 presents maps of the Pearson corre-

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lation coefficient between the simulated LAI anomalies and the observed ones. Overall, Conclusions References
ISBA-A-gs is better correlated with GEOV1 than ORCHIDEE (on average, r = 0.44 over

Discussion Paper
15
Tables Figures
the considered area, against r = 0.35 for ORCHIDEE) and slightly better scores are
obtained by the two models over croplands (r = 0.48 and 0.36, respectively). Similar
results are obtained considering either median or mean r values. The best correla- J I

tions (r > 0.6) are obtained over the Iberian Peninsula, North Africa, southern Russia, J I
20 and eastern Turkey. At high latitudes (northern Russia–Scandinavia), the year to year
changes in LAI are not represented well by the two models. In these areas, the vege- Back Close

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tation generally consists of evergreen forests presenting little seasonal and interannual

Discussion Paper
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variability in LAI. Moreover, up to 50 % of the remotely sensed reflectances are missing,
mainly due to the snow cover, clouds, high sun and view zenith angles.
Printer-friendly Version
25 Figure 10 presents the relative interannual variability of LAI, i.e. the ACV indicator
defined in Sect. 2.4.2. Figure 10 shows that ACV is generally higher for ISBA-A-gs than Interactive Discussion
for GEOV1, except for Scandinavia and northern Russia. Conversely, ACV is generally
lower for ORCHIDEE than for GEOV1, except for croplands of Ukraine and southern
5565

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Russia. In these areas the ORCHIDEE mean annual LAI is extremely variable (ACV
values close to 50 % are observed), and this variability is more pronounced than in the GMDD
GEOV1 observations (ACV values are generally below 25 %).
6, 5553–5594, 2013
3.4 The 2003 drought in western Europe
Monitoring
5 The 2003 year was marked, in Europe, by two climatic events which had a significant Euro-Mediterranean

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impact on the vegetation growth. The first one was a wintertime and springtime cold droughts
wave, which affected the growth of cereal crops in Ukraine and in southern Russia

Discussion Paper
(USDA, 2003; Vetter et al., 2008). The second one was a summertime heat wave fol- C. Szczypta et al.
lowing a long Spring drought, which triggered an agricultural drought over western and
10 central Europe (Ciais et al., 2005; Reichstein et al., 2006; Vetter et al., 2008; Vidal
et al., 2010). Figure 11 shows the observed and simulated monthly AnoLAI values from Title Page
May to October 2003. Negative values correspond to a LAI deficit. In May and June,
Abstract Introduction
the impact of the cold wave in eastern Europe is clearly visible in the GEOV1 satel-

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lite observations. In the same period, the impact of the heat wave appears in western Conclusions References

Discussion Paper
15 and central regions of France. At summertime, the impact of drought on LAI spreads
Tables Figures
towards southeastern France and central Europe and tends to gradually disappear in
October. The LSM LAI anomalies show patterns that match the two climatic anoma-
lies (drought in western and east-southern Europe; cold winter and spring in northern J I

European Russia) but tend to maintain the agricultural drought too long in comparison J I
20 to GEOV1. The AnoLAI values derived from the simulations of the two models remain
markedly negative in October 2003, while the observations show that a recovery of the Back Close

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vegetation LAI has occurred, especially in the Mediterranean basin area.

Discussion Paper
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Interactive Discussion

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4 Discussion
GMDD
4.1 Representation of soil moisture
6, 5553–5594, 2013
The difficulty in representing the modelled LAI interannual variability, as illustrated in
Sects. 3.3 and 3.4, can be partly explained by shortcomings in the phenology and leaf Monitoring
5 biomass parameterizations. Another factor is the inadequate simulation of root-zone Euro-Mediterranean

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soil moisture. The interannual variability of LAI is often driven by changes in the soil droughts
moisture availability, which for the soil models of the versions of ORCHIDEE and ISBA-

Discussion Paper
A-gs used in this study consist of rather simple parameterizations that are unable to C. Szczypta et al.
simulate detailed soil moisture profiles including the ability of different root layers in the
10 profile to take up water. For example, the difficulty in simulating the vegetation recovery
in the Mediterranean basin in October 2003 (Fig. 11) can be explained by shortcom- Title Page
ings in the representation of the soil moisture profile and by the fact that Mediterranean
Abstract Introduction
vegetation is rather well adapted to drought with mechanisms of “emergency” stomatal

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closure (Reichstein et al., 2003) that prevent leaf damage and cavitation. In addition, Conclusions References

Discussion Paper
15 many European tree and shrub species have deep roots and can access ground water
Tables Figures
to alleviate drought stress. The soil hydrology component of the ISBA-A-gs simulations
performed in this study is based on the force-restore model. The root zone is described
as a single thick soil layer with a uniform root profile. After the drought, this mois- J I

ture reservoir is empty, and the first precipitation events have little impact on the bulk J I
20 soil moisture stress function influencing photosynthesis and plant growth. In the real
world, the high root density at the top soil layer permits a more rapid response of the Back Close

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vegetation growth to rainfall events. The implementation of a soil multi-layer diffusion

Discussion Paper
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scheme in ISBA-A-gs (Boone et al., 2000; Decharme et al., 2011) is expected to im-
prove the simulation of vegetation regrowth. Similar developments are performed in the
Printer-friendly Version
25 ORCHIDEE model following de Rosnay and Polcher (1998) and d’Orgeval et al. (2008).
Moreover, LSM simulations are affected by large uncertainties in the Maximum Avail- Interactive Discussion
able Water Capacity (MaxAWC). The MaxAWC value depends on both soil (e.g. soil
density, soil depth) and vegetation (e.g. rooting depth, shape of the root profile, capacity
5567

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to extract water from the soil in dry conditions) characteristics. Calvet et al. (2012)
showed over France that MaxAWC drives to a large extent the interannual variability GMDD
of the cereal and forage biomass production simulated by ISBA-A-gs and that agri-
6, 5553–5594, 2013
cultural yield statistics can be used to retrieve these MaxAWC values. It is likely that
5 the correlation maps of Fig. 9 could be improved adjusting MaxAWC. In ISBA-A-gs,
LAImax is a prognostic quantity related to the annual biomass production, especially Monitoring
for crops. Therefore, LAImax values derived from the GEOV1 LAI data could be used Euro-Mediterranean

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to retrieve MaxAWC or at least better constrain this parameter together with additional droughts

Discussion Paper
soil characteristic information and a better soil model.
C. Szczypta et al.
10 4.2 Representation of LAI

Apart from indirectly adjusting MaxAWC (see above), the GEOV1 LAI could help im- Title Page
prove the phenology of the two models. Camacho et al. (2013) have shown that the
Abstract Introduction
neural network algorithm used to produce GEOV1 (Baret et al., 2013) was successful

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in reducing the saturation of optical signal for dense vegetation (i.e. at high LAI val- Conclusions References

Discussion Paper
15 ues). Since the saturation effect is the main obstacle to the derivation of LGP from LAI
Tables Figures
or other vegetation satellite products, it can be assumed that the GEOV1-derived LGP
values are reliable.
In ISBA-A-gs, the LAImin parameter could be easily adapted to better match the J I

observations before the leaf onset. In particular LAImin is mostly underestimated over J I
20 grasslands (not shown). Improving the whole plant growth cycle is not easy as the
ISBA-A-gs phenology is driven by photosynthesis and, therefore, depends on all the Back Close

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factors impacting photosynthesis, including the absorption of solar radiation by the veg-

Discussion Paper
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etation canopy. For example, preliminary tests using a new shortwave radiative transfer
within the vegetation canopy (Carrer et al., 2013) indicate that this new parameteriza-
Printer-friendly Version
25 tion tends to slightly reduce the LGP value (results not shown).
Regarding ORCHIDEE, this study revealed a number of shortcomings in the phenol- Interactive Discussion
ogy parameterization. The LGP values were generally overestimated (Fig. 7) and the
senescence model for grasses was deficient at northern latitudes, with a much too long
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 Discussion Paper
growing season ending at the beginning of the following year (Fig. 8). A new version is
being developed, in which the phenological parameters are optimized using both in situ GMDD
and satellite observations. The in situ data are derived from the FLUXNET data base
6, 5553–5594, 2013
(Baldocchi et al., 2008). For boreal and temperate PFTs, the leaf life span parameter is
5 systematically reduced, leading to a shorter LGP (see e.g. Kuppel et al., 2012). A new
phenological model for crop senescence involving a GDD threshold, described in Bon- Monitoring
deau et al. (2007) and evaluated in Maignan et al. (2011), results in much shorter LGP Euro-Mediterranean

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values for crops. Finally, a temperature threshold is activated in order to improve the droughts

Discussion Paper
simulation of the senescence of grasslands.
C. Szczypta et al.
10 4.3 Can LAI anomalies be anticipated using SSM?

The biomass accumulated at a given date is the result of past carbon uptake through Title Page
photosynthesis, and in water-limited regions it depends on past soil moisture condi-
Abstract Introduction
tions. For example, using the ISBA-A-gs model over the Puy-de-Dôme area in the

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centre of France, Calvet et al. (2012) found a very good coefficient of determination Conclusions References
(r 2 = 0.64) between the simulated root-zone soil moisture in May (July) and the sim-

Discussion Paper
15
Tables Figures
ulated annual cereal (managed grassland) biomass production. To some extent, SSM
can be used as a proxy for soil moisture available for plant transpiration and LAI can
be used as a proxy for biomass. In water-limited areas, the annual biomass production J I

of rainfed crops and natural vegetation depends on soil moisture (among other factors) J I
20 at critical periods on the year.
In order to assess to what extent SSMd anomalies could be used to predict LAI Back Close

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anomalies a few 10 day periods ahead, the Pearson correlation coefficient between 18

Discussion Paper
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SSMd values (one value per year over the 1991–2008 period) and 18 DLAI values was
calculated on a 10-daily basis. For each considered 10 day period, SSMd was com-
Printer-friendly Version
25 pared to DLAI values at the same period, and to hindcast DLAI values obtained 10
days, 20 days, 30 days, 40 days and 50 days later, from March to August. Preliminary Interactive Discussion
tests based on the satellite products showed that significant correlations were mainly
obtained over cropland areas. An explanation is that LAI is more representative of the
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 Discussion Paper
biomass production for annual crops than for managed grasslands or natural vegeta-
tion, or that natural vegetation in water-restricted areas is better adapted to changing GMDD
water variability than crops. Therefore, the correlation coefficients were computed for
6, 5553–5594, 2013
the grid cells with more than 50 % of croplands (according to the ECOCLIMAP-II land
5 cover data). The scores were calculated with hindcast SSMd and DLAI for 10-daily time
lags derived from either (1) the SSM and LAI simulated by the ISBA-A-gs LSM or (2) Monitoring
the ESA-CCI SSM and GEOV1 LAI products. Euro-Mediterranean

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Figure 12 presents the time lag for which the best correlation coefficient is obtained, droughts

Discussion Paper
for the second 10 day period of May, June, and July. For a large proportion of the
C. Szczypta et al.
10 cropland area (75 %, 92 %, 94 % in May, June, July, respectively) significant correlations
(p value < 0.01) are obtained with the model. A much lower proportion is obtained with
the satellite data (1 %, 5 %, 14 %, respectively). For the three months, the average time
Title Page
lag of the model ranges between 16 and 20 days, and the average time lag of satellite
products ranges between 18 and 34 days. In April (not shown) nearly no correlation Abstract Introduction
15 is found with the satellite data, while 45 % of the cropland area presents significant

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Conclusions References
correlation for the model, with an average time lag of 34 days.

Discussion Paper
These differences in predictability of LAI may be due to shortcomings in both ob- Tables Figures
servations and simulations. Significant correlations with the satellite data are only ob-
served in homogeneous cropland plains, such as in southern Russia, especially in July. J I
20 The accuracy of satellite-derived LAI and SSM products is affected by heterogeneities
and by topography. This may explain why the synergy between the two variables only J I
appears in rather uniform landscapes, while the modelled variables are more easily
Back Close
comparable in various conditions. The ISBA-A-gs simulations present weaknesses re-

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lated to the representation of the soil moisture profile (Sect. 4.1). In particular, the

Discussion Paper
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25 force-restore representation of SSM tends to enhance the coupling between SSM and
the root-zone soil moisture (end hence to LAI through the plant water stress). Par- Printer-friendly Version
rens et al. (2013) showed that the decoupling between the surface soil layers and the
deepest layers in dry conditions can be simulated using a multilayer soil model. Apart Interactive Discussion

from these uncertainties, the main reason of the differences in predictability of LAI is

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probably that the satellite-derived LAI and SSM are completely independent while de-
terministic interactions between the two variables are simulated by the model. GMDD
4.4 From benchmarking to data assimilation 6, 5553–5594, 2013

The direct validation of long time series of satellite-derived ECV products is not easy, Monitoring
5 as in situ observations are limited in space and time (Dorigo et al., 2013). Therefore, Euro-Mediterranean

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indirect validation based on the comparison with independent products (e.g. products droughts
derived from model simulations) has a key role to play (Albergel et al., 2013a). Hindcast

Discussion Paper
simulations can be used to validate satellite-derived ECV products and conversely, the C. Szczypta et al.
latter can be used to detect problems in the models (Sect. 4.2). In this study, the new
10 GEOV1 LAI product and the new ESA-CCI SSM product were compared with LSM
simulations. The most advanced indirect validation technique consists in integrating Title Page
the products into a LSM using a data assimilation scheme. The obtained reanalysis ac-
Abstract Introduction
counts for the synergies of the various upstream products and provides statistics which

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can be used to monitor the quality of the assimilated observations. Barbu et al. (2011, Conclusions References

Discussion Paper
15 2013) have developed a Land Data Assimilation System over France (LDAS-France)
Tables Figures
using the multi-patch ISBA-A-gs LSM and a simplified extended Kalman filter. The
LDAS-France assimilates GEOV1 data together with ASCAT SSM estimates and ac-
counts for the synergies of the two upstream products. While the main objective of J I

LDAS-France is to reduce the model uncertainties, the obtained reanalysis provides J I

20 statistics which can be used to monitor the quality of the assimilated observations.
The long-term LDAS statistics can be analyzed in order to detect possible drifts in the Back Close

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quality of the products: innovations (observations vs. model forecast), residuals (ob-

Discussion Paper
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servations vs. analysis), and increments (analysis vs. model forecast). This use of data
assimilation techniques is facilitated by the flexibility of the vegetation-growth model of
Printer-friendly Version
25 ISBA-A-gs, which is entirely photosynthesis-driven.
In contrast to ISBA-A-gs, ORCHIDEE uses phenological models for leaf onset and Interactive Discussion
leaf offset and the LAI cannot be easily updated with observations. Instead, Carbon
Cycle Data Assimilation System (CCDAS) can be used to retrieve model parameters
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(Kaminski et al., 2012; Kato et al., 2013). Using this technique, Kuppel et al. (2012)
have assimilated eddy-correlation flux measurements in ORCHIDEE at 12 temperate GMDD
deciduous broadleaf sites. Before the assimilation, the model systematically overesti-
6, 5553–5594, 2013
mates LGP (by up to one month). The model inversion produces new values of three
5 key parameters of the phenology model and shorter LGP values are obtained.
Monitoring
Euro-Mediterranean

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5 Conclusions droughts

Discussion Paper
For the first time, the variability in time and space of LAI and SSM derived from new C. Szczypta et al.
harmonized satellite products (GEOV1 and ESA-CCI soil moisture, respectively) was
analyzed over the Euro-Mediterranean area for a 18 yr period (1991–2008), using de-
10 trended time series. The explicit simulation of SSM by the ISBA-A-gs LSM permitted Title Page
evaluating the seasonal and the day-to-day variability of the ESA-CCI SSM. The com-
Abstract Introduction
parison generally showed a good agreement between the observed and the simulated

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SSM, and highlighted the regions where the ESA-CCI product can be improved. OR- Conclusions References
CHIDEE and ISBA-A-gs were used to assess the seasonal and interannual vegeta-

Discussion Paper
15 tion phenology derived from GEOV1. It appeared that the GEOV1 LAI product is not Tables Figures
affected much by saturation and was able to generate a realistic phenology. It was
shown that GEOV1 can be used to detect shortcomings in the LSMs. In general, the J I
ISBA-A-gs LAI agreed better with GEOV1 than the ORCHIDEE LAI, for a number of
J I
metrics considered in this study: LGP, 10-daily AnoLAI , ACV. In contrast to ORCHIDEE,
20 the ISBA-A-gs plant phenology is entirely driven by photosynthesis and no degree-day Back Close

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phenology model is used. The advantage is that all the atmospheric variables influence

Discussion Paper
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LAI through photosynthesis. Also, the regional differences between ISBA-A-gs and the
GEOV1 LAI can be handled through sequential data assimilation techniques able to
integrate satellite products into LSM simulations (Barbu et al., 2013). As shown in the Printer-friendly Version

25 latter study, though the main purpose of data assimilation is to improve the model sim- Interactive Discussion
ulations, the difference between the simulated and the observed LAI and SSM can be
used as a metric to monitor the quality of the observed time series. On the other hand,
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ISBA-A-gs is very sensitive to errors in the atmospheric variables, and bias-corrected
atmospheric variables must be used (Szczypta et al., 2011). GMDD
Finally, the use of SSM to predict LAI 10 to 30 days ahead was evaluated over
6, 5553–5594, 2013
cropland areas. Under certain conditions, the harmonized LAI and SSM observations
5 used in this study present consistent results over croplands, and SSM anomalies can
be used to some extent to predict LAI anomalies over uniform cropland regions. The Monitoring
combined use of satellite products and models could help improve the characterisation Euro-Mediterranean

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of agricultural droughts. droughts

Discussion Paper
Acknowledgements. This work is a contribution to the GEOLAND2 research project co-funded C. Szczypta et al.
10 by the European Commission within FP7 (under grant agreement No. 218795), and to the
French REMEMBER project (ANR 2012 SOC&ENV 001) within the HYMEX initiative. The
work of C. Szczypta was supported by Région Midi-Pyrénées, by Météo-France, and by Title Page
GEOLAND2. The contribution of W. Dorigo was supported by ESA’s Climate Change Initiative
for Soil Moisture (Contract No. 4000104814/11/I-NB). Abstract Introduction
15

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Conclusions References

Discussion Paper
The publication of this article is Tables Figures
financed by CNRS-INSU.
J I

J I

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Table 1. Summary of the characteristics of the ORCHIDEE 1.9.5.1 tag and ISBA-A-gs SUR-
GMDD
FEXv6.2 configurations used in this study. 6, 5553–5594, 2013
Biogeophysical process ORCHIDEE ISBA-A-gs
Monitoring
Photosynthesis – Farquhar et al. (1980) for C3 Goudriaan et al. (1985), modified by Ja-
plants, cobs et al. (1996); same model for both Euro-Mediterranean

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– Collatz et al. (1992) for C4 plants C3 and C4 plants but specific parameter droughts
values

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Main parameter of photosyn- Maximum carboxylation rate Mesophyll conductance (gm )
C. Szczypta et al.
thesis (Vc,max)

Impact of drought on photosyn- Linear response of Vc,max (Mc- – Log response of gm

thesis parameters (response to Murtrie et al., 1990) – Linear response of the maximun sat- Title Page
root-zone soil moisture) uration deficit for herbaceous vegetation
(Calvet, 2000) Abstract Introduction
– Linear response of the scaled maxi-

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mum intercellular CO2 concentration for
woody vegetation (Calvet et al., 2004) Conclusions References

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– Drought-avoiding response for C3
crops, needleleaf forests Tables Figures
– Drought-tolerant response for C4
crops, grasslands, broadleaf forests

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Soil moisture profile No explicit representation of SSM; Explicit representation of SSM (0–1 cm
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the layers evolves through time in model (Boone et al., 1999; Deardoff, J I
response to “top-to-bottom” filling 1977, 1978)
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(Leaf onset model was trained us- and mortality
ing satellite NDVI data, Botta et al., Interactive Discussion
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Fig. 1. The Euro-Mediterranean area (11◦ W–62◦ E, 25–75◦ N) considered in this study and the
three subregions: Mediterranean basin, northern Europe, and Russia–Scandinavia. Interactive Discussion

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cells (0.5◦ × 0.5◦ ) considered in this study, derived from the 1 km ECOCLIMAP-II data base.

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Fig. 3. Comparison between the detrended ESA-CCI SSM and the detrended SSM simulated
by ISBA-A-gs over the 1991–2008 period: Pearson correlation coefficient for (left) absolute J I
values, (right) scaled anomalies (Eq. 1).
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Fig. 4. Same as Fig. 3, except for the 2003–2008 period and (top) ESA-CCI vs. ISBA-A-gs,
(bottom) AMSR-E vs. ISBA-A-gs.
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Fig. 5. Detrended SSM ESA-CCI vs. AMSR-E, (left panel) absolute and (right panel) anomaly J I
2
squared correlation coefficients (r ) with the detrended ISBA-A-gs SSM, over the 2003–2008
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period. Note that r 2 values are plotted for grid cells corresponding to positive r values, only.

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Fig. 6. Mean simulated leaf onset values derived from the (top) ORCHIDEE LAI and (middle) Printer-friendly Version
ISBA-A-gs LAI, and the observed leaf onset values derived from the (bottom) GEOV1 LAI
satellite product. The period used to produced the mean vegetation annual cycle is 1991–2008 Interactive Discussion
for the three data sets.

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Fig. 7. Same as Fig. 6, except for LGP values.

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Fig. 8. Mean monthly values of the ISBA-A-gs and ORCHIDEE LAI simulations, and GEOV1 J I
LAI observations, for the three sub-regions of Fig. 1 (from left to right: Mediterranean basin,
northern Europe, and Russia–Scandinavia). J I

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Fig. 9. Pearson correlation coefficient (r ) between the scaled LAI 10-daily anomalies derived
from detrended simulations (left, ISBA-A-gs; right, ORCHIDEE) and detrended GEOV1 satellite
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observations, over the 1991–2008 period, at grid cells presenting significant positive correla-
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Fig. 10. Annual Coefficient of Variation (ACV) of LAI over the 1991–2008 period (left, GEOV1; J I
middle, ISBA-A-gs; right, ORCHIDEE).
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Fig. 11. Scaled LAI monthly anomalies from May to October 2003. From top to bottom: GEOV1
satellite observations, detrended ISBA-A-gs and ORCHIDEE simulations. Units are dimension- J I
less and correspond to standard deviations.
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Fig. 12. Predictability of LAI 10-daily differences from SSM over croplands from May to July,
based on detrended (top) ISBA-A-gs simulations and (bottom) satellite products (GEOV1 LAI J I
and ESA-CCI SSM). The colour dots correspond to four time lags providing the highest squared
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coefficient correlation (r 2 ) for the predicted LAI anomaly over the 1991–2008 period. The results

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are given for the second 10 day period of each month at grid cells presenting significant LAI

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anomaly estimates (p value < 0.01).
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