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Novita Salvia Octaviani - Exercise
Novita Salvia Octaviani - Exercise
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks to the media in the framework of a European Union
leaders summit amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Brussels, Belgium March 24, 2022.
REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein
(CNN)One year ago, Republicans were struggling to find a line of attack that stuck to
President Joe Biden, who enjoyed approval ratings in the mid-50s.
It would be an understatement to say much has changed since then. While there were
some signs the public's views of Biden were on the uptick following his State of the Union
address and initial response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, his job performance numbers
have still been mostly mired in the low 40s.
Now, new polling from Pew Research Center suggests Biden is not only broadly unpopular,
but emerging as a chief campaign villain for Republicans in this year's midterm elections.
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Pew's survey found that 71% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters said they think
of their vote for Congress this fall as being "against Biden." Among Democratic and
Democratic-leaning voters, just 46% said they view their vote as "for Biden." (Among all
registered voters, 36% said their vote would be "against Biden," 24% said "for Biden," and
38% said Biden would not be much of a factor.)
While that wide party split should be concerning for Democrats, it's not terribly surprising.
Historically, voters tend to deliver a rebuke to the party in power during the first midterm of a
president's tenure.
What's more surprising is that Biden -- who was seen by many as a middle-of-the-road
alternative to Trump in the 2020 election and immediately after -- is more of a motivating
factor for midterm voters of the opposing party than other recent. Presidents who were
initially seen as more polarizing.
Pew's polling found in June of 2018 that 61% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters
said their vote for Congress would be against then-President Donald Trump, who was
despised by liberals from the outset. In June of 2010, 54% of Republican and Republican-
leaning voters said their midterm vote would be against then-President Barack Obama, who
faced opposition from the Tea Party movement early on in his administration.
And in June of 2006, ahead of the second midterm election of George W. Bush's
presidency, 65% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters said their congressional vote
would be against him. At that point, Bush's popularity was in the tank for a variety of
reasons, including the Iraq War and his response to Hurricane Katrina.
In all three years, the president's party encountered a midterm "shellacking," as Obama
famously put it in his case. (In Bush's first midterm in 2002, the GOP bucked historical
trends and gained seats in Congress in the wake of the 9/11 attack.) And right now, Biden is
even more of a motivating factor for the rival party.
So, what's changed for Biden? The President's numbers may say less about him personally
than the increasingly polarizing nature of the country's politics.
Rather than landing on a single line of attack, Republicans have just attacked Biden on,
well, everything, ranging from the Afghanistan withdrawal, to the pandemic, to inflation, to
his Supreme Court pick. And they've done so relentlessly in ads, congressional floor
speeches and appearances on Fox.
That's not to say the criticism Biden has faced is unwarranted or that he hasn't had his fair
share of missteps. And his numbers among Democrats and independents have suffered
over the past 14 months too.
But the reality is there's likely very little the President could have done in an increasingly
divided and nationalized environment to avoid a stinging and widespread backlash from
Republicans (some of whom don't even believe Biden was duly elected in the first place).
Republicans know this and will look to take full advantage of it heading into November.
The Point: Biden's numbers in the Pew poll further underscore the uphill climb
Democrats face this fall -- and just how polarized the political climate has become.