Jogmec-Trc Reservoir Engineering Course

JOGMEC-TRC
Reservoir Engineering Course

Lecture Notes
Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS)

CO2 Storage Resources Management System(SRMS)
March, 2022
Lecturer: Motoyoshi Naiki

Japan Oil Engineering Co., Ltd.
1
Petroleum Resources Management System
(PRMS)
2
Data from “THE END OF CHEAP OIL”
by Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère,
Scientific American, March 1998
3
Worldwide Look at Oil Reserves
Estimated Actual Qo
Country R/P 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001
Qo in 2017 in 2016
(Years) (1,000 B/D) Billion bbls
Saudi Arabia 73.1 9,965 10,420 266.2 266.5 266.6 265.8 265.9 265.4 264.5 260.1 259.9 264.2 264.3 259.8 264.3 259.4 259.4 259.3 259.3
Venezuela 411.7 2,010 2,240 302.3 300.9 300.0 298.4 297.7 297.6 211.2 211.2 99.4 99.4 87.0 80.0 79.7 77.2 77.8 77.8 77.7
Canada 119.7 3,900 3,689 170.5 169.7 170.9 172.5 173.2 173.1 173.6 175.2 175.2 178.1 178.6 179.2 178.8 178.8 178.9 180.0 5.2
Iran 113.4 3,797 3,551 157.2 158.4 157.5 157.8 157.3 154.6 151.2 137.0 137.6 136.2 138.4 136.3 132.5 125.8 125.8 89.7 89.7
Iraq 91.0 4,474 4,420 148.8 142.5 143.1 144.2 140.3 141.4 143.1 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 112.5 112.5
Kuwait 102.7 2,707 2,880 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 99.0 101.5 99.0 96.5 94.0 94.0
Abu Dhabi 91.3 2,934 3,050 97.8 97.8 97.8 97.8 92.2 92.2 92.2 92.2 92.2 92.2 92.2 92.2 92.2 92.2 92.2 92.2 92.2
Russia 19.9 11,001 10,924 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 48.6
Libya 174.2 760 391 48.4 48.4 48.4 48.4 48.5 48.0 47.1 46.4 44.3 43.7 41.5 41.5 39.1 39.0 36.0 29.5 29.5
Nigeria 67.5 1,520 1,470 37.5 37.1 37.1 37.1 37.1 37.2 37.2 37.2 37.2 36.2 36.2 36.2 35.9 35.3 25.0 24.0 24.0
Kazakhstan 47.6 1,725 1,595 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 5.4
Qatar 113.7 608 649 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.2
USA 10.5 9,230 8,857 35.4 35.3 39.9 37.9 31.8 20.7 20.7 19.1 19.1 21.3 21.0 21.8 21.4 21.9 22.7 22.4 22.0
China 18.1 3,877 4,003 25.6 25.6 25.1 24.6 24.4 25.6 20.4 20.4 20.4 16.0 16.0 16.0 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.3 24.0
Brazil 13.2 2,620 2,515 12.6 13.0 16.2 15.3 13.2 13.2 14.0 12.9 12.8 12.6 12.2 11.8 11.2 10.6 8.5 8.3 8.5
Algeria 31.6 1,058 1,111 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.3 11.4 11.8 11.3 9.2 9.2
Mexico 9.0 2,008 2,154 6.6 7.6 9.7 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.2 10.4 10.4 10.5 11.7 12.4 12.9 14.6 15.7 12.6 26.9
Total World 57.5 78,625 78,717 1651.8 1,645.9 1,656.2 1,655.9 1,647.4 1,637.9 1,523.2 1,469.6 1,354.2 1,342.2 1,331.7 1,317.4 1,292.5 1,277.7 1,265.8 1,212.9 1,031.6
Total OPEC 102.9 32,410 32,888 1217.9 1,212.2 1,206.0 1,206.2 1,200.8 1,204.7 1,112.9 1,064.8 951.3 944.0 927.5 902.3 901.7 885.2 869.5 819.0 818.8
UAE Data from OGJ
4
World Oil Reserves
- The problem of reliable data
 OGJ gets its data simply by asking the

governments of the country in question.
 British Petroleum (BP) said the numbers
provided by Norway or Great Britain are probably
accurate, but most Middle Eastern countries
regard oil reserve figures as state secrets and so
the government provided figures for these
countries are suspect.
5
Petroleum Resources Management
System (PRMS)
PRMS provides fundamental principles for the

evaluation and classification of petroleum
reserves and resources.
6
Resource Classification System by
SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE
Production Project Maturity
Commercial
←Increasing Chance of Commerciality

Total Petroleum-Initially-In-Place (PIIP)
Reserves 1) On Production
Discovered PIIP
1P 2P 3P Approved for Development

Proved Provable
Possible
Justified for Development
Contingent Resources 2) Development Pending

Commercial
Sub-
Development Unclarified or on
1C 2C 3C Hold
Development not Viable
Unrecoverable 3)
PIIP
Undiscovered
Prospective Resources 4) Prospect

Low Best High Lead
Estimate Estimate Estimate
6 Play
)
Unrecoverable
 Range of Uncertainty 5)
From “Petroleum Resources Management System” by SPE
7
What is Reserves?
 Those quantities of petroleum anticipated to be

commercially recoverable by application of
development projects to known accumulations from a
given date forward under defined conditions.
8
What is known?
 The key requirement to consider an accumulation as

“known,” and hence containing Reserves or
Contingent Resources, is that it must have been
discovered,
 that is, penetrated by a well that has established
through testing, sampling, or logging the existence of
a significant quantity of recoverable hydrocarbons.
9
SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE
Commercial
←Increasing Chance of Commerciality (

Discovered PIIP

Proved Provable
Possible

Commercial
Sub-
1C 2C 3C Hold
Unrecoverable 3)
PIIP
Undiscovered

Low Best High Lead
6 Play
)
Unrecoverable
10
What is Contingent Resources?
 Those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a

given date, to be potentially recoverable from known
accumulations, but the applied project(s) are not yet
considered mature enough for commercial
development due to one or more contingencies.
11
SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE
Commercial

Discovered PIIP

Proved Provable
Possible

Commercial
Sub-
1C 2C 3C Hold
Unrecoverable 3)
PIIP
Undiscovered

Low Best High Lead
6 Play
)
Unrecoverable
12
What is Unrecoverable?
 A portion of Discovered or Undiscovered PIIP

quantities which is estimated, as of a given date, not
to be recoverable by future development projects.
 A portion of these quantities may become
recoverable in the future as commercial
circumstances change or technological
developments occur.
 The remaining portion may never be recovered due to
physical/chemical constraints represented by
subsurface interaction of fluids and reservoir rocks.
13
SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE
Commercial

Discovered PIIP

Proved Provable
Possible

Commercial
Sub-
1C 2C 3C Hold
Unrecoverable 3)
PIIP
Undiscovered

Low Best High Lead
6 Play
)
Unrecoverable
14
What is Prospective Resources?
 Those quantities of petroleum which are estimated,
on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from
undiscovered accumulations.
15
SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE
Commercial

Discovered PIIP

Proved Provable
Possible

Commercial
Sub-
1C 2C 3C Hold
Unrecoverable 3)
PIIP
Undiscovered

Low Best High Lead
6 Play
)
Unrecoverable
16
Why Technical Uncertainty exists?
1) How to estimate Oil in Place?

Oil in Place = Area x he x φ x (1-Sw) / Bo
2) What is source of information?
Gross Rock Volume <- Seismic
Net-to-Gross Ratio <- Well Logs
Porosity <- Well Logs and/or Cores
Saturation <- Well Logs
Formation Volume Factor <- PVT Test
17
Uncertainty of GRV from Seismic
 Elimination of noise from signal

 Conversion from Time to Depth
 Horizon and Faults Interpretation
18
2D Output from signal
How do you look at these figures (young lady or old lady)?

eye
Yes, she is young lady!
nose No, she is old lady!

nose
ear Totally different interpretations are possible.

eye
choker chain
mouth
From 1888 German postcard
19
Conversion from Time to Depth
20
Conversion from Time to Depth
21
Horizon and Faults Interpretation
22
Original Interpretation of Contour Map
23
After Re-processing and Re-Interpretation
24
SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE
Commercial

Discovered PIIP

Proved Provable
Possible

Commercial
Sub-
1C 2C 3C Hold
Unrecoverable 3)
PIIP
Undiscovered

Low Best High Lead
6 Play
)
Unrecoverable
25
How about Recovery?
 Fractional Flow Efficiency

 Areal Sweep Efficiency
 Vertical Sweep Efficiency
 Economical Limit
26
Fractional Flow for 1-D Oil-Water System
The above typical 1-D Oil Water displacement system shows water breakthrough
occurs at RF=50% and WC increase rapidly after that, but ultimate RF is limited
(1-Sor-Swir)/(1-Swir), which is 75% even if WC becomes 99.999999%.
27
Experiment for Core flooding
From TRC/JOGMEC, Japan
28
Areal Sweep Efficiency
Can areal sweep efficiency be reached to more than 90%?
29
Vertical Sweep Efficiency
Can vertical sweep efficiency be reached to more than 90%?
30
Can vertical sweep efficiency be reached to more than 90%?
31
Let’s Calculate Recovery!
RF = Fractional Flow displacement x
Areal Sweep Efficiency x
What is most likely figure of each?

Fractional Flow displacement = 0.7
Areal Sweep Efficiency = 0.8
Vertical Sweep Efficiency = 0.8
 RF = 0.7 x 0.8 x 0.8 = 0.448
Yes, it is less than 50%.
32
Reserves Evaluation by Simulation
( Bottom-water drive type Sandstone reservoir)
Economical evaluation was conducted based on given data in 2007.
2P&3P
1P
Prediction upto 2052
History until Sep., 2001
OOIP is estimated as 7,600 MMbbl.

Oil Production was started in early 1961 and continued even now.
33
Economical Limit
Actual Production Profile in Offshore Asia field
200,000 1.0
Original Oil in Place = 160 MMSTB
180,000 0.9
160,000 0.8
140,000 0.7
120,000 0.6
Rate (BD)
100,000 0.5
80,000 0.4
60,000 0.3
40,000 0.2
20,000 0.1
0 0.0
1993/10
1994/4
1997/10
1998/10
1999/4
2002/10
2003/4
2003/10
1998/4
1994/10
1995/4
1995/10
1996/4
1996/10
1997/4
1999/10
2000/4
2000/10
2001/4
2001/10
2002/4
2004/4
2004/10
2005/4
2005/10
Year
Oil Rate Water Rate Water-cut Recovery
34
Why such field is still commercial?
Original Technical Data in 1990

Water depth ⇒ 150 m
Location ⇒ 200 km from shore
Original Estimated OIP ⇒ 120 MMSTB
Estimated Reserves ⇒ 30 MMSTB
Original Estimated Commercial Data in 1990

Oil Price ⇒ 20 US$/bbl
Total Income ⇒ 600 million US$
Exploration Cost ⇒ 100 million US$
Development Cost ⇒ 200 million US$
Operation Cost ⇒ 200 million US$
Gross Profit ⇒ 100 million US$
But, how much are Royalty, Tax, Interest and Abandoned Cost, etc.?
It looks very critical whether it’s commercial or not at that time.
35
Technical Data were revised

 Original OIP was revised from 120 MMSTB to 160 MMSTB
based on the actual drilled well data, which is 33% increased
from original estimation.
 Cumulative production (60 MMSTB) has already exceed the
original estimated reserves, which was 30 MMSTB.
Why can Reservoir produce oil even water-cut is more than

90 % and can Facilities handle such high water-cut oil?
36
Reservoir Drive Mechanisms
 Very strong Water Drive and well can flow naturally with
20-30% water-cut.
 Higher water-cut wells can be produced by ESP without
any technical problem.
37
Separation of Oil and Water
 Oil in water can easily be separated by Cyclone

Separator and water can be disposed to sea.
What is a normal process to separate

water/oil and disposal of water?
38
Typical separation water from oil

 Oil/Gas/Water separator ⇒ w-c down to 20%
 Dehydrator ⇒ w-c down to 0.2%

 Desalter ⇒ Salt content < 20 PTB(or 70 ppm)
Desalter is required if salinity of water is high!
Typical Treatment of waste water

 Removal oil in water ⇒ o-c < 20 ppm
 Water is to be injected to formation.
Usually disposal of water to sea is not allowed

due to the environmental reason.
39
70.0
60.0
What is this?
US invasion to Iraq
50.0
OPEC & non OPEC cut oil output by 2.1 MMBPD 2011/9/11
40.0 ?
? ?
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
0 /4 10 /4 10 /4 10 /4 10 /4 10 /4 10 /4 10 /4 10 /4 10 /4 10 /4 10 /4 10
/1 94 4/ 95 5/ 96 6/ 97 7/ 98 8/ 99 9/ 00 0/ 01 1/ 02 2/ 03 3/ 04 4/ 05 5/
93 19 199 19 199 19 199 19 199 19 199 19 199 20 200 20 200 20 200 20 200 20 200 20 200
19
40
Rate (BD)
19
93
0
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
/1
0
19
94
19 /4
94
/1
0
19
95
19 /4
95
/1
0
19
96
19 /4
96
/1
0
19
97
19 /4
97
/1
0
19
98
19 /4
98
/1
0
19
99
Oil Rate
19 /4
99
/1
0
20
00
Year
20 /4
41
00
/1
0
Water Rate
20
01
20 /4
01
/1
0
20
02
Income
20 /4
02
/1
0
20
03
20 /4
03
/1
0
20
04
20 /4
04
/1
0
20
05
20 /4
05
/1
0
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1000 $
SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE
Commercial

Discovered PIIP

Proved Provable
Possible

Commercial
Sub-
1C 2C 3C Hold
Unrecoverable 3)
PIIP
Undiscovered

Low Best High Lead
6 Play
)
Unrecoverable
42
Proved Reserves
 Those quantities of petroleum, which, by analysis of

geoscience and engineering data, can be estimated with
reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable,
from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and
under defined economic conditions, operating methods,
and government regulations.
 If deterministic methods are used, the term reasonable

certainty is intended to express a high degree of
confidence that the quantities will be recovered.
 If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least

a 90% probability that the quantities actually recovered
will equal or exceed the estimate.
43
Probable Reserves
 Those additional Reserves which analysis of geoscience and
engineering data indicate are less likely to be recovered than
Proved Reserves but more certain to be recovered than
Possible Reserves.
 It is equally likely that actual remaining quantities recovered will

be greater than or less than the sum of the estimated Proved
plus Probable Reserves (2P).
 In this context, when probabilistic methods are used, there

should be at least a 50% probability that the actual quantities
recovered will equal or exceed the 2P estimate.
44
Possible Reserves
 Those additional reserves which analysis of geoscience and

engineering data suggest are less likely to be recoverable than
Probable Reserves.
 The total quantities ultimately recovered from the project have a

low probability to exceed the sum of Proved plus Probable plus
Possible (3P) Reserves, which is equivalent to the high estimate
scenario.
 In this context, when probabilistic methods are used, there

should be at least a 10% probability that the actual quantities
recovered will equal or exceed the 3P estimate
45
CO2 Storage Resources
Management System(SRMS)
46
CO2 Storage Resources
Management System(SRMS)
A CO2 storage resource is defined as the quantity (mass or

volume) of CO2 that can be stored in a geologic formation.
Resource assessments estimate total storable quantities in

known, yet-to-be-discovered (i.e., identified) geologic
formations; resource evaluations focus on those quantities
that potentially can be used for commercial storage.
CO2 SRMS is similar to PRMS.
47
Production Stored
Discovered Storage Resources

Commercial
Commercial
Reserves Capacity

Discovered PIIP
1P 2P 3P 1P 2P 3P
Total Storage Resources

Proved Provable Proved Provable
Possible Possible
Contingent Resources Contingent Storage Resources

Commercial
Sub-
Commercial
Sub-
1C 2C 3C 1C 2C 3C
Unrecoverable Inaccessible Storage Resources

PIIP
Undiscovered
Resources
Storage
Undiscovered
Prospective Resources Prospective Storage Resources
Low Best High
Estimate Estimate Estimate Low Best High
Unrecoverable Inaccessible Storage Resources
 Range of Uncertainty  Range of Uncertainty
From https://www.spe.org/industry/docs/Petroleum-Resources-Management-System-2007.pdf
https://www.spe.org/industry/docs/SRMS.pdf
48
What is Capacity?
 Those quantities of Total Storage Resources

anticipated to be commercially accessible in the
characterized geologic formation by application of
development projects from a given date forward under
defined conditions.
49
What is Contingent
Storage Resources?
 Those quantities of Total Storage Resources

estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially
accessible in known geologic formations, but the
applied project(s) are not yet considered mature
enough for commercial development, as a result of
one or more contingencies.
50
What is Inaccessible
Storage Resources?
 The estimated portion of Discovered or Undiscovered
Storage Resources, as of a given date (i.e., the time
of the evaluation), that are not usable by future
storage development projects.
 A portion of these Inaccessible Storage Resources
may be used for storage in the future as commercial
or regulatory circumstances change or technological
developments occur; the remaining portion may
never be used for storage resulting from
physical/societal constraints of the storage location,
both surface and subsurface.
51
What is Prospective
Storage Resources?
 The quantity of Undiscovered Storage Resources
estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially
accessible within undiscovered geologic formations
or uncharacterized parts of discovered geologic
formations by application of future
exploration/development projects.
52
Production Project Maturity Production Project Maturity
Discovered Storage Resources
Commercial
Commercial
On Injection
On Production

Approved for
Approved for Capacity
Discovered PIIP
Reserves Development
Development
Total Storage Resources

Justified for
Justified for Development Development
Development Pending
Sub-Commercial Undiscovered
Development Pending Development on Hold
Commercial
Sub-
Contingent Storage
Development Unclarified Development Unclarified
Contingent Resources Resources
or on Hold
Development not Viable Development not Viable
Unrecoverable Inaccessible
Resources
Storage
Prospect
d PIIP
Undiscovere
Prospect
Prospective Storage Lead
Prospective Resources Lead
Resources
Play Play
Unrecoverable Inaccessible
 Range of Uncertainty  Range of Uncertainty
From https://www.spe.org/industry/docs/Petroleum-Resources-Management-System-2007.pdf
53
More details, please down load booklet titled “CO2 Storage

Resources Management System” from
54
Thank you
55

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JOGMEC-TRC

Reservoir Engineering Course

Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS)

Lecturer: Motoyoshi Naiki

 OGJ gets its data simply by asking the

PRMS provides fundamental principles for the

←Increasing Chance of Commerciality

1P 2P 3P Approved for Development

Contingent Resources 2) Development Pending

Prospective Resources 4) Prospect

From “Petroleum Resources Management System” by SPE

 Those quantities of petroleum anticipated to be

 The key requirement to consider an accumulation as

←Increasing Chance of Commerciality (

1P 2P 3P Approved for Development

Contingent Resources 2) Development Pending

Prospective Resources 4) Prospect

From “Petroleum Resources Management System” by SPE

 Those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a

←Increasing Chance of Commerciality (

1P 2P 3P Approved for Development

Contingent Resources 2) Development Pending

Prospective Resources 4) Prospect

From “Petroleum Resources Management System” by SPE

 A portion of Discovered or Undiscovered PIIP

←Increasing Chance of Commerciality (

1P 2P 3P Approved for Development

Contingent Resources 2) Development Pending

Prospective Resources 4) Prospect

From “Petroleum Resources Management System” by SPE

←Increasing Chance of Commerciality (

1P 2P 3P Approved for Development

Contingent Resources 2) Development Pending

Prospective Resources 4) Prospect

From “Petroleum Resources Management System” by SPE

1) How to estimate Oil in Place?

 Elimination of noise from signal

How do you look at these figures (young lady or old lady)?

Yes, she is young lady!

nose No, she is old lady!

ear Totally different interpretations are possible.

←Increasing Chance of Commerciality (

1P 2P 3P Approved for Development

Contingent Resources 2) Development Pending

Prospective Resources 4) Prospect

From “Petroleum Resources Management System” by SPE

 Fractional Flow Efficiency

From TRC/JOGMEC, Japan

Can areal sweep efficiency be reached to more than 90%?

Can vertical sweep efficiency be reached to more than 90%?

Can vertical sweep efficiency be reached to more than 90%?

What is most likely figure of each?

Economical evaluation was conducted based on given data in 2007.

Prediction upto 2052

History until Sep., 2001

OOIP is estimated as 7,600 MMbbl.

Oil Rate Water Rate Water-cut Recovery

Original Technical Data in 1990

Original Estimated Commercial Data in 1990

It looks very critical whether it’s commercial or not at that time.

Technical Data were revised

Why can Reservoir produce oil even water-cut is more than