Problem On Monte Carlo Simulation

Problem: Based on Monte Carlo Simulations
Ramesh is a dentist who schedules all his patients for 30 minutes appointments. Some of the
patients take more or less than 30 minutes, depending on the type of dental work. The
following summary shows the various categories of works and the time needed to complete
the work
Category Time Requirements No. of Patients per Day
Filling 45 min 40
Crown 60 min 15
Cleaning 15 min 15
Extracting 45 min 10
Check Up 15 min 20
Now, Simulate the dentist clinic using Mont Carlo simulations for four hours and find out the
average waiting time for the patients and the idleness of the doctor. Assume that all the
patients show up at the clinic at exactly their scheduled time; let us consider the arrival time
for the first patient as 8.00 AM. You may use the following random numbers for handling the
above problem during the simulation [40, 82, 11, 34, 25, 66, 17, 79].
Solution:
Step 1:
In first step we have to find out the probabilities of all the events (sometimes Probability
distribution)
So, total number of patients per day is = Filling + Crown + Cleaning + Extracting + Check
Up
Total patients = 40 + 15 +15 + 10 + 20 = 100
40
Here, The event of filling probability = = 0.40, Similarly
100
15 15
Crown probability = = 0.15, Cleaning probability = = 0.15, Extracting probability =
100 100
10 20
= 0.10, Check Up probability = 0.20.
100 100
Step 2:
In the second step, we have to find out the Cumulative Probability Distribution of all the
events. So, for Filling the Cumulative Probability Distribution is = 0.40
For Crown the Cumulative Probability Distribution is = Filling + Crown = 0.40 + 0.15 =
0.55,
For Cleaning the Cumulative Probability Distribution is = 0.55 + 0.15 = 0.70,
For Extracting the Cumulative Probability Distribution is = 0.70 + 0.10 = 0.80,
For Check Up the Cumulative Probability Distribution is = 0.80 + 0.20 = 1
Category Time No. of Patients Probability Cumulative

Requirements per Day Probability
Filling 45 min 40 0.40 0.40
Crown 60 min 15 0.15 0.55
Cleaning 15 min 15 0.15 0.70
Extracting 45 min 10 0.10 0.80
Check Up 15 min 20 0.20 1
Step 3:
Setting random number intervals is the heart of the Monte Carlo simulations. How to define
the class intervals of random numbers? It will start from zero and need to check the
respective cumulative probability. Random numbers for that event must be in the range of
their respective cumulative probability value.
Category Time No. of Patients Cumulative Random
Requirements per Day Probability Numbers
Filling 45 min 40 0.40 00 – 39
Crown 60 min 15 0.55 40 – 54
Cleaning 15 min 15 0.70 55 – 69
Extracting 45 min 10 0.80 70 – 79
Check Up 15 min 20 1 80 – 99
Step 4:
Generating random numbers for the events is also an essential task in Monte Carlo
simulations. Sometimes the set of random numbers are given to the problem, which is based
on system design. On the other hand, if the random numbers are not given, then a table must
be given and using that table, we have to generate the random number sequences for the
Monte Carlo simulations. However, the random numbers are provided in the present problem
as [40, 82, 11, 34, 25, 66, 17, 79].
Step 5:
In the final step, here we simulate the all above and obtain the definitive answer. Now, the
first patient is arriving at exactly 8.00 AM. Each patient's average serving time is 30 minutes.
According to the problem, we have to simulate the situation for the next four hours, equal to
240 minutes. So, the doctor will serve the patient till 12.00 PM. The maximum number of
patients can be allotted for the service is 8. Kindly see the below table carefully
Patient Scheduled Random Category of Patient Service

Arrival Numbers using random time needed
numbers
1 8.00 AM 40 Crown 60 min
2 8.30 AM 82 Check Up 15 min
3 9.00 AM 11 Filling 45 min
6 10.30 AM 66 Cleaning 15 min
8 11.30 AM 79 Extracting 45 min
Patient Scheduled Service Service Service Waiting time Idle time

Arrival starts time duration Ends time for patient for doctor
1 8.00 AM 8.00 AM 60 min 9.00 AM 0 min 0 min
7 11.00 AM 11.45 AM 45 min 12.30 PM 45 min 0 min
8 11.30 AM 12.30 PM 45 min 1. 15 PM 60 min 0 min
Answer:
So, the average waiting time for the patient is = 33.625 min.
The idle time for the doctor is 0 min.
Ref: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3mmO7RlQ3M

Problem On Monte Carlo Simulation

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Problem: Based on Monte Carlo Simulations

Category Time No. of Patients Probability Cumulative

Patient Scheduled Random Category of Patient Service

Patient Scheduled Service Service Service Waiting time Idle time

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