International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (IJTSRD)

Volume 6 Issue 2, January-February 2022 Available Online: www.ijtsrd.com e-ISSN: 2456 – 6470

An Empirical Study of the Nature and Causes of Sugarcane

Growth and Instability in Uttar Pradesh Since 1991
Shoaib Ansari1, Dr. Saghir Ahmad Ansari2
1
Research Scholar, Department of Agricultural Economics & Business Management,
Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, Uttar Pradesh, India
2
Professor and Chairman, Department of Agricultural Economics & Business Management,
Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, Uttar Pradesh, India

ABSTRACT How to cite this paper: Shoaib Ansari |

The analysis assesses the area's growth and stability and sugarcane Dr. Saghir Ahmad Ansari "An Empirical
production and yields in Uttar Pradesh. The paper is based on Study of the Nature and Causes of
secondary data sugarcane area, production, and yields in Uttar Sugarcane Growth and Instability in
Pradesh, the state with the highest sugarcane production, from 1990- Uttar Pradesh Since 1991" Published in
International
91 to 2018-19. The information came from the government of India's
Journal of Trend in
or uttarpradesh website, the directorate of economics and statistics, Scientific Research
the ministry of agriculture, and farmers' welfare for the fiscal year and Development
2018-19. Compound growth rates, Cuddy-Della Valle instability (ijtsrd), ISSN:
indices, and other metrics Sugarcane production and yields rise at the 2456-6470,
state level over the research period. Similar research was conducted Volume-6 | Issue-2, IJTSRD49265
about sugarcane crop growth rates, which were excellent and February 2022,
motivating. As a consequence of state government measures, pp.531-535, URL:
sugarcane cultivation has become more profitable. Proper use of www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd49265.pdf
limited resources may raise production and profitability, achieving
the goal of double revenue and raising farmers' living standards. Copyright © 2022 by author (s) and
International Journal of Trend in
KEYWORDS: Sugarcane, Growth, Instability, Cuddy Della Vella, Scientific Research and Development
Compound Growth Rate Journal. This is an
Open Access article
distributed under the
terms of the Creative Commons
Attribution License (CC BY 4.0)
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)

INTRODUCTION
Low-income individuals who are malnourished face contributed to significant changes in India's
the burden of food supply variations. This is because agricultural landscape. Up to 2012, India's ultimate
a decrease in supply boosts costs, dramatically irrigation potential (UIP) increased 7.7 times, from
reducing the purchasing power of individuals with 19.5 to 139.90 million hectares (Water-related data,
limited income who have spent a substantial 2013), while food grain output increased from 50
percentage of their income on food. Of fact, new million tonnes to 252.22 million tonnes in 2015-16.
technologies that have expanded food production We have paid a high price in water table depletion
have benefitted the poor by increasing the overall and rapid shifts in climatic conditions, posing a
food supply and decreasing or moderating the upward significant challenge to sustainability. Without a
pressure on food costs induced by expanding doubt, India has achieved self-sufficiency in food
population and wealth. However, it appears that not grain production due to the Green Revolution.
only has food production volatility risen during the (Ahmad et al. 2018)Agriculture is still the essential
era of fast deployment of new food production market in India.
technologies compared to prior periods, but there may
The agricultural sector, in particular, represents 18%
be a causative link. This discovery does not dismiss
of the country's GDP and employs 50% of the
the most significant contribution of modern
workers. Sugarcane is India's most considerable
production technology. High-yielding crop types,
commercial crop, covering 2.57 % of the nation's
inconsistent fertilizer usage, and irrigation have
population cropped area. After only Brazil, India is

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 International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development @ www.ijtsrd.com eISSN: 2456-6470
the world's second-largest producer of sugarcane, sugarcane production instability. Sugar production in
accounting for about 25% of worldwide production. Uttar Pradesh fluctuated dramatically throughout time
In the fiscal year 2010-11, it worked approximately 5 as well. The fundamental cause of sugar production
percent of the country's local population in sugarcane insecurity is the unpredictability of raw material
growing, providing 10% of agricultural GDP availability, namely sugarcane, which has
(Solomon, 2016). After textiles, The sugar industry in experienced significant fluctuations. The current
India is the country's second-largest agro-based sector study examines the Uttar Pradesh area, production,
and. It has significantly aided the country's and sugarcane yield in terms of The Impact of
employment and economic growth. (Ahmed and Technology on Agricultural Production Growth and
Rahman, 2014). Six million farmers and their families Instability. Policymakers concerned in sugarcane and
have been supported by the sugar business as a whole related markets will consider the study beneficial
(Verma, 2015). Sugarcane is seen as a future crop due
Statement of the problem& Research Gap
to its contribution to manufacturing sugar, jaggery, The most difficult task for sugarcane farmers who are
khandsari, and other by-products like molasses. at the whim of nature is striking a balance between
Uttar Pradesh is the biggest sugarcane supplier, with input consumption and output, which affects the
145.39 million tonnes produced, representing 41.28 economics of their crop.
percent of all sugarcane produced in India. Sugarcane Another challenge for sugarcane producers is a lack
is grown on 2.17 million hectares in the state, of competent personnel. The price has risen to an
representing 43.79 percent of total sugarcane farming abnormally high level. Sugarcane growing generates
in India. inadequate revenue to meet input costs. As a result,
Sugarcane (Saccharumofficinarum L.) is the most most sugarcane growers want to transition to shorter-
important cash crop in India. Sugarcane farming is lived crops. Because of the high expenditure of
significantly less dangerous than other crops since it growing and maintaining the land over time, most
pays farmers consistently even when unfavorable sugarcane producers are not financially secure. They
weather (Raju and Kumar, 219). Sugarcane farming are unable to acquire or rent cutting-edge sugarcane
was common in all tropical and subtropical areas. machinery. Given this, it is critical to examine the
Sugarcane can be a lucrative resource for the sugar macro-level growth trends of such main crops.
industry and other associated industries. Sugarcane This research analyzes the An Empirical Study of the
has played an important part in the agricultural Nature and Causes of Sugarcane Growth and
community's food security, nutrition, and social Instability in Uttar Pradesh, Since 1991. The nature
growth (Rahman and Bee, 2019). Sugarcane is a and origins of increasing output and instability have
multipurpose crop that may produce food, fibre, been questioned since independence and the Green
fodder, fuel, and chemicals such as ethanol (Yadav et Revolution. An analysis has been made in this study
al., 2006). Sugarcane is an annual crop that matures to investigate the nature and sources of instability in
between 10 and 18 months. In India, sugarcane is the area, production, and yield of sugarcane in Uttar
grown in tropical states like Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Pradesh. with defined and easily understood
Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, objectives. This is done with a goal in mind, so what
and Tamil Nadu well as subtropical ones like Bihar, is expected is clear. Some goals are listed. To
Haryana, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh. After Brazil, ascertain the amount, yields, and sugarcane
India is the world's second-largest producer of sugar, production area in Uttar Pradesh.
with output expected to grow gradually, supported in
part by renewed government support for the sub- Resources and methods
sector (FAO, 2019). Approximately 20% of the Secondary data on sugarcane area production and
world's sugarcane was produced in India (Medar et yield in important sugarcane-growing states in Uttar
al., 2019).Understanding past trends in the area, Pradesh from 1990-91 to 2018-19 were used in the
production, and yields, both aggregated at the state current study. in the current study. For the 2018-19
level and disaggregated at the regional level, fiscal year, Directorate of Economics and Statistics,
facilitates the planner in evaluating the growth rate Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare,
for different regions as well as the state as a whole as Government of India.
well as formulating proper approaches such as the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
type and degree of incentives to be offered and Compound growth rates (CGRs) of sugarcane area,
growers to attain the desired growth rate. In addition production, and yield were computed for the state
to the growth rate, scientists and planners have using the following technique:
recently focused their attention on the issue of CGR= (antilog of b-1) ×100

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 International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development @ www.ijtsrd.com eISSN: 2456-6470
Instability index sevenfold increased to 179698 thousand tonnes in
The deviation from the pattern is characterized as 2018-19. Sugarcane output climbed at a significant
instability. Investigators use the coefficient of pace of 1.15 percent between 1990 and 2019.
variation (CV percent) to measure instability in the According to the sub-period growth trend study, the
literature. The level of instability in sugarcane area, growth rate was positive in all sub-periods.
production, and yield for the states. under In 1990-91, Uttar Pradesh's sugarcane yield was
consideration and the state as a whole was 558.10 hect., but it has more than tripled to 808.07
investigated to use an instability index. Since CV hect. in 2018-19. Sugarcane yield rose at a significant
alone does not explain the appropriate trend rate of 1.17 percent between 1990 and 2019.
component present in the time series data, the According to the sub-period growth trend study, the
instability index was calculated using the Cuddy- growth rate was positive in all sub-periods.
Della Valle index The following is the computing
formula: Table 2.0 Compound Annual Growth Rates of
Area Production and Yield of Sugarcane in
Instability index CV× Uttar Pradesh
Particular Periods1 Periods 11 Overall
CV= × 100
Area 0.49 0.77 0.06
Production 0.58 4.40 1.15
If the regression equation's estimated coefficient is
Yields 0.08 3.59 1.17
insignificant, the CV is used as the instability index.
Where CV stands for coefficient of variation and R2 Compound Annual Growth Rates of Area
stands for coefficient of determination from a time Production and Sugarcane Yield in Uttar Pradesh,
series trend regression with the number of degrees of Period by Period Discussion
freedom adjusted.
Area
Result & Discussion Discuss the compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
Trends of Area Production & Yields in Sugarcane Area from 1990 to 2011, i.e., following the reform.
in Uttar Pradesh So we received 0.49 growth, i.e., not much but not
Table 1.0 that much since technology was not that sophisticated
Particular at the time, but we still got to see good growth rate
year 000 000 Average now if you look at Periods 2 2011 to 2019, we got
Area Production Yields 1.14 growth but is this Period higher than 1.
1990-91 1858 103562 558.10 Whenever we look at entire periods from 1990 to
1995-96 1994 12102 606.91 2019, they are less than two, but they are also less
2000-01 1938 106068 549.19 than one if we look at the entire state of Uttar
2005-06 2070.58 120960.64 584.19 Pradesh. 0.06 in a growth region
2010-11 2058.70 116877.56 567.72 Production
2014-15 2215.55 145831.10 658.21 Discuss the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
2015-16 2168.88 145384.79 670.32 production from 1990 to 2011, i.e., after the reform.
2016-17 2159.84 156948.67 726.67 So we received 0.58 growth, i.e., not much but not
2017-18 2234.28 177056.41 792.45 that much since technology was not that advanced at
2018-19 2223.80 179698.15 808.07 the time, but we still got to see strong growth rate
(Area in thousands Hect. Production thousand now if you look at Periods 2 2011 to 2019, we got
M.T.& Average Yield in QTLs / Hect) 4.40 growth but is this Period greater than 1. When
Source: Directorate of Economics And Statistics we look at full periods from 1990 to 2019, they are
Government Of Uttar Pradesh less than two, but they are also less than one when we
look at the entire state of Uttar Pradesh. 1.15 in a
CAGR explanation in terms of area production
growing production
and yield
The total area under sugarcane in Uttar Pradesh Yields
increased from 1858 thousand hectares to 2223 Examine the Yield compound annual growth rate
thousand hectares between 1990-1991 and 2018-19. (CAGR) from 1990 to 2011, i.e., following the
The entire growth trend shows a significant annual reform. So we got 0.08 growth, which is not much but
growth rate of 0.06 percent. not that much since technology was not that
sophisticated at the time, but we still got to witness a
Uttar Pradesh's sugarcane production was 103562
good growth rate now if you look at Periods 2 2011 to
thousand tonnes in 1990-91, but it has more than

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2019, we got 3.59 growth but is this Period bigger technology adoption, due to the integration of the new
than 1? They are less than two when we look at whole technology into the previously established input
periods from 1990 to 2019, but they are also fewer control regime. In other words, if the technology can
than one when we look at the entire state of Uttar overcome the investment lumpiness while assuming
Pradesh. 1.17 in an increasing yield no need for management or skill upgradation, it will
be accessible to a large number of farmers, lowering
Table 3.0 Sugarcane Area, Production &
instability. The research recommends making modern
Average Yields, of instability in Uttar Pradesh
technologies more inexpensive and available to a
Periods Periods Overall
Particulars larger number of farmers in order to achieve rapid
1 11 all
growth with stability. This is significant given the
Mean 1983.85 2176.84 2092.16
dominance of the small-scale manufacturing sector
SD 88.27 65.28 130.39
Area and the lack of institutional mechanisms such as loan
CV% 4.44 2.99 6.23 delivery. The study have previously discussed how a
CDV 2.66 2.35 2.64 well-designed buffer stock. programme may be
Mean 91914.04 153632.78 126448.93 utilised to stabilise prices and farm incomes while
SD 45201.91 23319.11 48530.87 also promoting agricultural growth. Buffer stock must
Production
CV% 49.17 15.17 38.37 not be utilised to be functional and economically
CDV 56.91 3.39 10.85 useful to smooth out variations caused by controllable
Mean 573 703.90 652.18 causes. Even then, one should acknowledge that
Average SD 22.86 90.52 96.12 buffer stock is an expensive unproductive investment
Yields CV% 22.89 12.85 14.73 that is, of course, required to address future
CDV 4.59 2.89 5.51 contingencies that may develop owing to natural
Cuddy Della Vella Index of Area Production and calamities. A more prudent plan would probably be to
Sugarcane Yield Instability in Uttar Pradesh, progressively redirect monies for stabilisation from
Period by Period Discussion buffer stocks to land infrastructure development
programmes such as drainage and irrigation, water
Area collection, and so on. These programmes may not
CDVI is an acronym that stands for cuddy Della vela stabilize production in a year or two, but they can
instability. In area 2.64, there is clear instability, significantly lessen the degree of production swings
although in its sub period one 2.66, and in the second over time. Furthermore, they enable vertical extension
2.35, respectively. of area for crop production, increased productivity,
Production and improved agricultural job possibilities.
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