The Climate System

Contents:
Lecture 1: Page 1
Lecture 2: Page 6
Lecture 3: Page 12
Lecture 4:
Lecture 5:
Lecture 6:
Lecture 7:
Lecture 8:
Lecture 9:

Lecture 1
Key Points:
• Appreciate the scientific robustness of climate science and how it has changed.
• Be able to define climate change and variability.
• Understand the role of the IPCC.
• Be aware of the impacts and challenges of climate change in Australia.

Definitions:
Climate: “The statistical properties of the atmosphere (Mean, Variance, Extremes)”

Climate Change: Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be
identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its
properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate
change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcing’s, OR to persistent
anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.”

Climate variability: Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other
statistics of the climate (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) on all
spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may be due
to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations
in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability).”

Appreciate the scientific robustness of climate science and how it has changed:
• First known establishment was in 1450. Med evil scholars and farmers predicted
climate. They would use a solar base calendar (seen as first climate model), and it
was designed to help with agricultural production.
• Climatology began as the observation and description of the weather on
subcontinental and continental scales.
• Explorers would look at similar continents latitude to estimate the climate Eg.
flipping and putting Australia over Africa to determine Australia’s climate. This led to
the creation of the Atlas (seen as second climate model).
• After these climatologists began making maps of the world. Before this it was mainly
observation and speculation prior to the scientific age (18-19 th Century)
 • Devices for measuring and studying weather were invented, which enabled
systematic climate records
• John Tindall, in 1861 conducted an experiment which showed that water vapour,
carbon dioxide and some other trace gases (greenhouse gases) where transparent to
light but didn’t absorb heat. This led to the coining of global warming and the
greenhouse effect. This old science was based on laboratory experiments and known
physics principles.

Types of climate variations:

Any human induced effect on climate will be superimposed on the background "noise" of
natural climate variability.

Assessments of observed parameter trends over time using statistical significance tests are
needed to detect change and to attribute the contribution of human related warming.

“Detection and attribution: Climate varies continually on all time scales.

Detection of climate change is the process of demonstrating that climate has changed in
some defined statistical sense, without providing a reason for that change.

Attribution of causes of climate change is the process of establishing the most likely causes
for the detected change with some defined level of confidence.”

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: IPCC

The role of the IPCC is to assess the scientific, technical, and socio-economic information
relevant for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change.

The IPCC has three working groups

• Working Group I assesses the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate
change.
• Working Group II addresses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems
to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change, and
options for adapting to it.
• Working Group III assesses options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and
otherwise mitigating climate change. The Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories oversees the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme

IPCC History: Evolution of Our Knowledge:

• FAR (1990): “The size of the warming is broadly consistent with predictions of
climate models, . . . but the unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse
effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more.”
• SAR (1996): “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on
climate.” TAR (2001): “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming
observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.”
• FAR (2007): “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the
mid-20th century is VERY LIKELY due to the observed increase in anthropogenic
greenhouse gas concentrations”
• 5AR (2013): “Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent
anthropogenic emissions of green-house gases are the highest in history. Recent
climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems.”

In the most recent report (AR6), released in September 2021 the urgency in language is
clear. Huge difference from beginning reports. It clear now that these changes were human
driven.
Impacts and challenges of climate change in Australia:
Climate variability and Human Influence on the Atmosphere during the Industrial Era:

State of the climate (2020) – Global:

• GHG highest on record
• Weak El Niño yet hottest on record
• Substantial variability across the planet in 2019
• Stratosphere unprecedented levels of aerosols
• Record heat content in Oceans
Adaptation: Initiatives to reduce the vulnerability of human and natural systems to expected
climate change effects

Mitigation: Implementing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance sinks of
greenhouse gases

Lecture 2
Key Points:
• Understand how long and short-wave radiation are generated in the climate system
and they are cycled in the climate system and can be explained by Planck’s law.
• Know the Stefan-Boltzmann relationship between emitted energy and temperature.
• Appreciate the spatial distribution of radiation and the consequence for weather and
climate.

The cycle of energy:

The Nature of Energy in the Climate system:

Energy is defined as the capacity for doing work
 • Radiant Energy is energy associated
with electromagnetic waves
propagating through space
• Thermal Energy is energy
associated with the ability of one
body or substance to raise the
temperature of a cooler one
• Potential Energy is energy due to
position, e.g. moisture in a cloud
about to fall as rain
• Kinetic Energy is energy due to
motion, e.g. air in motion

Modes of energy transmission:

• By Radiation of electromagnetic waves propagated through space
• By Conduction or the transfer of energy in a substance by means of molecular
excitation without any net external motion
• By Convection or the transfer of energy by mass motions within a fluid or gas,
resulting in actual transport of energy. Advection = horizontal motion.

Energy related units:

The S.I. system is used, base units of m, kg and s, along with the temperature unit K are used
in the unit

• force = mass x acceleration [Newton (N) = kg m s-2]

• pressure = force per unit area [Pascal (Pa) = 1 N m-2]
• energy = force x distance [N m = joule (J) = kg m 2 s-2]
• energy flux, or the rate at which energy is released [J s-1 = watt (W) = kg m 2 s-3]
• energy flux density, flux per unit area [W m-2 = kg s-3]

Electromagnetic radiation:
What emits e-m radiation?
• All bodies that possess energy [i.e. whose temperatures are > 0 Kelvin (-273.2 oC)]
emit radiation.
• Efficiency of emission is dependent on its emissivity (
• Where a body emits the maximum radiation for its temperature it is called a black
body. (Black bodies have an emissivity of 1)
• Less efficient radiators have  varying between 0 and 1 (i.e. road 0.95 and soils 0.95-
0.90).
• E-M radiation has a
continuum of wavelengths.

Spectrum of Electromagnetic
Radiation:
Planck’s Law:
• Is the general law that allows us to show the complete wavelength distribution of
radiant energy from black bodies at different temperatures.
• Shows that, irrespective of temperature, the spectral distribution of radiation is
given by a characteristic Planck’s curve, although the total energy emitted, and its
spectral (wavelength) composition may be very different.

Where Bλ is the energy per unit

wavelength (λ), T is the temperature of
the body (K), h is the Planck constant, c
is the speed of light and k is the
Boltzmann constant, e is the base
natural log.

• The lower the temperature, the longer the wavelengths are

• The total amount of energy is highest for the highest temperatures and as you get to
lower and lower temperatures, the total amount of energy (the peak energy) in
terms if Jules per wavelength is lower
• Hotter bodies give off more energy and have lower
frequencies

Stefan-Boltzmann’s Law:
• Total Energy emitted (E) by a black body is related to its
absolute (Kelvin) temperature (T) by:

E =   T4
 • Where  is the Stefan-Boltzmann proportionality constant (5.67 x 10-8) m 2 kg s-1). E
is in W m-2.
• For non-black bodies a value (between 0 - unity) for emissivity (  must be included
• This states that the amount of radiation emitted by a body is proportional to the
fourth power of its absolute temperature
• If we are to sum up all the energy under the curve, we have the total amount of
energy associated with that particular body.

Wien’s Displacement Law: States the hotter the object the shorter the peak wavelengths of
radiation.

Radiation:
• Radiation from the Sun (0.15 - 4 m) and from the Earth (4 - 100 m) are
conveniently distinct wavelengths
• Atmospheric scientists have therefore designated the radiation emitted by the sun to
be solar or short-wave radiation, and that emitted within the Earth-atmosphere
system to be terrestrial or long wave radiation

Annual net-radiative budgets of the Earth and atmosphere:

• Almost half of incoming solar radiation is

absorbed by the ground to heat the land

• Around 20% is absorbed by vapour, dust and 03

• Whilst around 30% is reflected back into the

atmosphere – this is called the planet albedo

Spectra:
• Consider the ideal black body spectra
• At the surface we see this has been modified by atmosphere
• Total absorption in part by water,
aerosols, GHG, etc.
• Used to derive atmospheric
composition

Annual energy budget of earth system:

• Warms the surface which radiates

energy at longer wavelengths
 • That long wave radiation balances the short-wave radiation at the top of the
atmosphere (around 69 units is being absorbed and released)
• Means that the planet is in radiative equilibrium.
• Therefore, energy gains = energy loses
• The atmosphere and the surface are NOT in radiative equilibrium.
• Internal cycling of longwave energy in the atmosphere

Radiative budget components:

• Balance of radiation Calculated as Net
radiation = Net shortwave + Net
longwave
• Surface surplus of 31 units of net
radiative energy (+46-115+100)
• Atmospheric deficit of 31 units of net
radiative energy (+23+106-100-60)

The re-distribution of energy:

• The earth and atmosphere can be bought into equilibrium through convection as a
means of transferring the energy surplus of the Earth upwards into the atmosphere.
• Earth and atmosphere brought into equilibrium by convection (sensible and latent
heat) of 31 units energy.

Sensible and latent heat:

Energy transported upward as heat by convection is of two kinds
• Sensible heat is heat as it is commonly known and measured by thermometer. This
heat is diluted upon mixing with cooler air aloft
• Latent heat is heat taken up or released on a phase change of water. Evaporated
water, when taken aloft by convection will give up energy when condensation occurs

Convective re-distribution of energy vertically:

• Averaged around the globe, 24 of the 31 units of excess surface
energy are diverted into latent heat flux
• 7 of the 31 units of excess energy are diverted into sensible heat
flux
• In this way the Earth and atmospheric subsystems come into
energetic equilibrium

Energy
equilibrium:
Atmosphere
and surface
not in radiative equilibrium but in
energy equilibrium
Spatial distribution of energy:
• Utilised satellite and spectral scanner
• Net radiation has been measured by satellites
• Over a period of time, the peak of radiation moves from North to South (summer to
winter)
• The amount of energy absorbed in the oceans is higher than it is on the land because
the water is darker than the land surface in general, therefore it tends to absorb
more energy (lower albedo)

Global temperature distribution:

• Spatial distribution of energy

being greatest at the equator
and lowest at the polar regions
• Therefore, there is a
temperature gradience: equator
is the hottest (more radiation)
and the poles are cool (less
radiation)

Re-distribution of energy latitudinally:

Net radiative budget of E-A system is in

deficit pole-ward of 40 degrees N and S

This sets up the General Circulation of

the atmosphere and oceans
Key Points:
• Contrast the natural and enhanced greenhouse effect
• Understand the earths energy balance and the physical basis for enhanced
greenhouse warming
• Describe the concept of radiative forcing and global warming potential
• Explain the different forcing factors on climate and whether they are positive or
negative

The Natural Greenhouse Effect:

• About one third of the solar radiation that enters the Earth is reflected back to
space.
• The remainder is mostly absorbed by the land and oceans. As a result the Earth's
surface becomes warm and emits infrared radiation.
• The greenhouse gases trap the infrared radiation, thus warming the atmosphere.
• Naturally occurring greenhouse gases (H 20 and CO 2) together create a natural
greenhouse effect.
• Human activities are causing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere to increase,
leading to enhanced greenhouse effect.

The Greenhouse Effect:

 The greenhouse effect is not well termed
 A greenhouse is opaque to longwave radiation and hence warms
 But it also precludes convection which is different from the atmosphere
 So not strictly a greenhouse effect but both result in higher temperatures

Life without Greenhouse:

• Without a greenhouse effect the Earth’s surface temperature would be –18 o C
• With greenhouse effect longwave radiation is trapped and the surface warms to 15 o
C
• The addition of human GHG induces further enhanced warming

The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect:

The enhanced greenhouse effect, sometimes referred to as climate change or global
warming, is the impact on the climate from the additional heat retained due to the
increased amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that humans have
released into the earth’s atmosphere since the industrial revolution.

Direct Forcing’s on the Climate System

 Atmospheric perturbation (i.e. doubling CO2).
 Stratosphere comes into equilibrium in days
 Troposphere comes into equilibrium in decades due to thermal capacity of oceans
  Radiative Forcing then from the tropopause down
 After some time radiative forcing results in cooling in stratosphere and warming in
troposphere

Radiative Forcing:
“The radiative forcing of the surface-troposphere system due to the perturbation in or the
introduction of an agent is the change in net downward radiative flux at the tropopause
AFTER allowing for stratospheric temperatures to readjust, but with the surface and
tropospheric temperatures and state held fixed at the unperturbed values”

Broad Causes of Climate Change:

External Factors of Climatic Change
• GHG (L6) and LULCC (L17)
• Solar luminosity (L5)
• The Milankovitch mechanisms (L12)
• Lithospheric movement and geometry (L12)
 • Volcanism and atmospheric aerosols (L16)

Internal Factors of Climatic Change

• Carbon dioxide and cloud
• Surface characteristics

Feedbacks (L8)
• Atmospheric water
• Ice/albedo
• Cloud
• Vegetation change through warming

Recent solar radiation changes:

• Sun is fundamental energy source
• Variations should affect earth system
• Sunspots are cooler and darker areas on the sun’s surface
• But the surrounding penumbra causes increased solar output.
• Up to 20-30 at once. The number changes over an 11-year sunspot cycle
• Over 20 years range is 0.08% or 1.1 Wm-2
• Proxy sunspots – calibrated against TSI - Max sunspots 1958, Maunder minimum.
• Changes in radiative forcing since 1850 = 0.2 Wm-2

Volcanic Forcing:
Mainly negative forcing in the short term due to aerosol release

Greenhouse Gas Forcing’s:

• Largest radiative forcing within the climate system
• Due to increase of greenhouse gasses mainly CO 2.
• Radiative forcing due to a doubling of CO 2 3.7 (range 2.96 to 4.44) Wm-2 .

Aerosols:
• Exerts a forcing on troposphere and stratosphere.
• Aerosol’s scatter and absorb long and shortwave radiation and directly impact
radiative balance
• Three main species: sulphates, biomass burning, fossil fuel carbon (soot)
• Also indirect effects with clouds have negative forcing
• Counteracting effects

Land use change (albedo):

• Land use change results in general in increased solar radiation reflected back to
space (albedo) and a negative radiative forcing
• Reduction of snow masking in deforested areas

Contrails:
• Condensation trails— or contrails—are straight lines of ice crystals that form in the
wake of jet liners
 • September 2001 temporarily halted U.S. commercial air traffic
• Track individual, persistent contrails from military aircraft
• Formation of cirrus clouds that covered more than 20,000 square kilometres
• During normal days, the area is crossed by thousands of jetliners

Anthropogenic impact on climate is 2.4 Watts per metre squared since 1750