Global Ocean Monitoring Current-1 Copy 3
Global Ocean Monitoring Current-1 Copy 3
Global Ocean Monitoring Current-1 Copy 3
Prepared by
Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA
August 11, 2022
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/
This project, to deliver real-time ocean monitoring products, is implemented
by CPC in cooperation with NOAA’s Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program (GOMO)
Outline
• Overview
• Recent highlights
– Pacific
– Arctic Ocean
– Indian Ocean
– Atlantic Ocean
2
Overview
•Pacific Ocean
– La Niña condition persisted with negative subsurface temperature anomaly reemerging
in the central-eastern Pacific Ocean.
– The negative PDO strengthened in Jul 2022, with PDOI = -2.2 .
– Marine Heat Waves (MHWs) developed in the North central Pacific and western Bering
Sea.
•Arctic Ocean
– Averaged Arctic sea ice extent for July ranked the twelfth lowest in the satellite record.
•Indian Ocean
– Indian Dipole Mode Index increased substantially in Jul 2022 , with DMI = -0.9℃.
– All NMME models favor a negative IOD event during the northern hemisphere summer-
fall 2022.
•Atlantic Ocean
– Atlantic hurricane activity was quiet in July.
– NOAA updated Atlantic Season outlook on 4 Aug 2022 still expects above-normal
Atlantic Hurricane Season.
– A majority of NMME models predicted near normal SSTs to persist in the Hurricane
main development region through the whole 2022 hurricane season.
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Global Oceans
4
Global SST Anomaly (oC) and Anomaly Tendency
SSTAs (top) and SSTA tendency (bottom). Data are derived from the OISSTv2.1 SST analysis, and anomalies are departures
from the 1991-2020 base period means. 5
Global Monthly SST anomaly and Marine Heat Waves
(Left panel) Monthly SST anomaly (shaded) and locations experience Marine heat waves (hatched) by the date labelled in the plot.
(right panel) SST evolution at a specific location. Green line and blue line denote the seasonal 90th percentile and daily climatology,
respectively. Shaded area denotes the periods experiencing MHW. MHW is defined as a discrete prolonged warmer than 90th
6
percentile of daily SST for at least 14 days. Data is derived from NCEI OISSTv2.1 and the climatology reference period is 1991-2020
Longitude-Depth Temperature Anomaly and Anomaly Tendency in 2oS-2oN
- Negative temperature
anomalies reemerged along
the thermocline in the
central-eastern Pacific
Ocean.
- Large positive temperature
anomalies persisted in the
eastern equatorial Indian
Ocean.
- Positive temperature
anomalies dominated the
upper 100m of equatorial
Atlantic Ocean.
Equatorial depth-longitude section of ocean temperature anomalies (top) and anomaly tendency (bottom). Data is from the
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NCEP's GODAS. Anomalies are departures from the 1991-2020 base period means.
Tropical Pacific Ocean and ENSO
Conditions
8
Evolution of Pacific Niño SST Indices
SSTAs (top-left), SSTA tendency (top-right), Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) anomalies (middle-left), sum of net surface short- and long-
wave radiation, latent and sensible heat flux anomalies (middle-right; positive means heat into the ocean), 925-mb wind anomaly vector and its
amplitude (bottom-left), 200-mb wind anomaly vector and its amplitude (bottom-right). SST are derived from the OISSTv2.1 SST analysis, OLR
from the NOAA 18 AVHRR IR window channel measurements by NESDIS, winds and surface radiation and heat fluxes from the NCEP CDAS.
Anomalies are departures from the 1991-2020 base period means. 10
Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Salinity(SSS) Anomaly
Sea surface salinity (SSS) anomalies are derived from Blended Analysis of Surface Salinity (BASS) V0.Z (Xie et al. 2014). Since June 2015, the BASS
SSS is from in situ, SMOS and SMAP; before June 2015,The BASS SSS is from in situ, SMOS and Aquarius. Data is available at 11
ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/precip/BAS.
Multiple Ocean Reanalysis: Temperature anomaly at Equator
12
Equatorial Pacific SST (℃), D20 (m) and TAUX (dyne/cm 2) Anomalies
- Negative SSTA weakened in the eastern Pacific , while enhanced in the western-central Pacific in Jul 2022.
- Strong easterly surface wind prevailed over the western-central Pacific in July, consistent with the re-emergence
of negative D20 anomaly in the eastern Pacific Ocean. 13
MJO Activities
14
Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperature Pentad Mean Anomaly
TAO GODAS
- Weak negative
temperature anomaly
appeared near the
central Pacific
thermocline (160º E-
140ºW) in the middle of
Jul, and then
propagated eastward.
- Positive anomaly in the
eastern Pacific deceased
gradually in the last six
pentads.
- Subsurface cooling in
GODAS was stronger
than that in TAO.
15
Evolution of Equatorial Pacific Surface Zonal Current Anomaly (cm/s)
- Anomalous westward currents dominated in the equatorial Pacific both in OSCAR and GODAS since Feb 2022.
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- Anomalous westward currents enhanced rapidly in Jul 2022.
NINO3.4 Heat Budget
Huang, B., Y. Xue, X. Zhang, A. Kumar, and M. J. McPhaden, 2010 : The NCEP GODAS ocean analysis of the
17
tropical Pacific mixed layer heat budget on seasonal to interannual time scales, J. Climate., 23, 4901-4925.
North Pacific & Arctic Oceans
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Last 3- month North Pacific SST, OLR, and uv925 anomalies
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Weekly SST anomaly and MHWs in the North Pacific
- MHWs developed in
the north central Pacific
and the west of Bering
Sea in the late July.
- Considerable amount
of anomalously warm
waters persisted near
the coast of California.
(Left panel) Weekly SST anomaly (shaded) and locations experience Marine heat waves (hatched) by the date labelled in the plot.
(right panel) SST evolution at a specific location. Green line and blue line denote the seasonal 90th percentile and daily climatology,
respectively. Shaded area denotes the periods experiencing MHW. MHW is defined as a discrete prolonged warmer than 90th
20
percentile of daily SST for at least 14 days. Data is derived from NCEI OISSTv2.1 and the climatology reference period is 1991-2020
Subsurface Temperature Anomaly in the North-Central Pacific
- Positive subsurface
temperature anomaly
in the North central
Pacific has persisted
since 2018.
- Subsurface warming
in recent months is the
strongest event since
1979.
21
Two Oceanic PDO indices
SST-based PDO (Wen et al. 2014: GRL)
- The negative phase of PDO
has persisted since Jan 2020
with PDOI = -2.2 in Jul 2022.
SST-based PDO is defined as the 1st EOF of monthly ERSST v3b in the North Pacific for the period 1900-1993. PDO index is
the standardized projection of the monthly ERSSTv5 SST anomalies onto the 1st EOF pattern. H300-based Pacific Decadal
Oscillation is defined as the projection of monthly mean H300 anomalies from NCEP GODAS onto their first EOF vector in
the North Pacific. PDO indices are downloadable from 22
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing.shtml.
Arctic Sea Ice; NSIDC (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html)
- Average Arctic sea ice extent for July 2022 was 8.25 million square
kilometers, ranking twelfth lowest in the satellite record.
23
NCEP/CPC Arctic Sea Ice Extent Forecast
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/seaice_seasonal/index.html 24
Indian Ocean
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Evolution of Indian Ocean SST Indices
Indian Ocean region indices, calculated as the area-averaged monthly mean SSTA (OC) for the SETIO [90ºE-110ºE, 10ºS-0] and WTIO [50ºE-70ºE,
10ºS-10ºN] regions, and Dipole Mode Index, defined as differences between WTIO and SETIO. Data are derived from the OIv2.1 SST analysis, and 26
anomalies are departures from the 1991-2020 base period means.
Last 3-month Tropical Indian SST , OLR & uv925 anomalies
27
CPC Indian Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting Website
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/ocean_monitoring/IO
_monitoring_fcsts/io_index.shtml
29
Tropical and North Atlantic Ocean
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Evolution of Tropical Atlantic SST Indices
Tropical Atlantic Variability region indices, calculated as the area-averaged monthly mean SSTAs (OC) for the TNA [60OW-30OW, 5ºN-20ON], TSA
[30OW-10OE, 20OS-0] and ATL3 [20OW-0, 2.5OS-2.5ON] regions, and Meridional Gradient Index, defined as differences between TNA and TSA. Data 31
are derived from the OISSTv2.1 SST analysis, and anomalies are departures from the 1991-2020 base period means.
Tropical Atlantic Ocean: SSTA, SSTA Trend, TCHP,OLR,UV200,UV200-UV850, Heat Flux and RH Anomalies
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Monthly SST Anomaly in the Atlantic Ocean
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NMME Forecasts in the Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Main Development Region
(90ºW-12ºW, 9ºN-21.5ºN)
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-still-expects-above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season
- NOAA updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-
normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60%.
- Several atmospheric and oceanic conditions still favor an active hurricane season, including La
Nina conditions, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, an active west African Monsoon, and
likely above-normal SSTs.
- Uncertainty factor: SSTs have been varying on both sides of normal in hurricane main
development region during the past 2 months.
35
2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Activities
- No tropical storms
developed since July 3.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Atlantic
_hurricane_season
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NAO and SST Anomaly in North Atlantic
Monthly standardized NAO index (top) derived from monthly standardized 500-mb height anomalies obtained from the NCEP CDAS in 20ON-90ON.
Time-latitude section of SSTAs averaged between 80ºW and 20ºW (bottom). SST are derived from the OIv2.1 SST analysis, and anomalies are 37
departures from the 1991-2020 base period means.
ENSO and Global SST Predictions
38
CFSv2 and NMME SST predictions
CFSv2 IC:Aug for 2022 ASO NMME IC:Aug for 2022 ASO
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/
ts/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml 39
IRI/CPC Niño3.4 Forecast : July 2022
41
Oceanic ENSO Presursors: WWV & CTP
WWV
CTP
Warm water volume (WWV) is defined as an average of D20 anomaly across the equatorial Pacific (120o E – 80o W, 5o S-5o N)
(Meinen and McPhaden 2000). Central tropical Pacific (CTP) index is calculated as the averaged D20 anomaly in the central
tropical Pacific (160o W-110o W, 10o S-10o N) (Wen et al. 2014). The monthly D20 data is obtained from the Real-time Ocean
Reanalysis Intercomparison Project( https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/multiora93_body.html ). 42
Nino3.4 Index Evolution in two-year La Ninas since 1950 (MICHELLE L'HEUREUX)
Three-year history of sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific for 8 previous
double-dip La Niña events. The color of the line indicates the state of ENSO for the third winter (red: El
Niño, darker blue: La Niña, lighter blue: neutral). The black line shows the current event. Monthly Niño-3.4
index is from CPC using ERSSTv5.
43
Evolution of Monthly Mean TAUX & SST Anomaly across [5S-5N]
- Latest CFSv2
predicts the
negative phase
of PDO will
continue
through northern
hemisphere
Spring 2023.
CFS Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index predictions from the latest 9 initial months. Displayed are 40 forecast members (brown) made four times
per day initialized from the last 10 days of the initial month (labelled as IC=MonthYear) as well as ensemble mean (blue) and observations (black).
Anomalies were computed with respect to the 1991-2020 base period means. PDO is the first EOF of monthly ERSSTv3b anomaly in the region of
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[110oE-100oW, 20oN-60oN]. CFS PDO index is the standardized projection of CFS SST forecast anomalies onto the PDO EOF pattern.
Data Sources (climatology is for 1991-2020)
Ø NCEP Weekly Optimal Interpolation SST (OI SST) version 2 (Reynolds et al. 2002, historical
Monthly Ocean Briefing achieves ,Ocean briefing and GODAS web pages prior July 2022)
Ø Staring July 2022, NCEI Daily OISSTv2.1(Huang et al. 2021) replaced NCEP Weekly OISST
data in the Monthly Ocean Briefing PPT , Ocean Briefing and GODAS web pages)
Ø Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST) v5 (Huang et al. 2017)
Blended Analysis of Surface Salinity (BASS) (Xie et al. 2014)
Ø CMORPH precipitation (Xie et al. 2017)
Ø CFSR evaporation adjusted to OAFlux (Xie and Ren 2018)
Ø NCEP CDAS winds, surface radiation and heat fluxes (Kalnay et al. 1996)
Ø NCDP/DOE Reanalysis II (R2) winds and heat fluxes ( Kanamitsu et al. 2002)
Ø NESDIS Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (Liebmann and Smith 1996)
Ø NCEP’s GODAS temperature, heat content, currents (Behringer and Xue 2004)
Ø Aviso altimetry sea surface height from CMEMS
Ø Ocean Surface Current Analyses – Realtime (OSCAR)
Ø In situ data objective analyses (IPRC, Scripps, EN4.2.1, PMEL TAO)
Ø Operational Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/multiora_body.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/multiora93_body.html
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Acknowledgement
❖ Dr. Wanqiu Wang provides the sea ice forecasts and maintains
the CFSv2 forecast archive
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Evolution of Pacific Niño SST Indices
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indic
es/RONI.ascii.txt
50
Last three months SST, OLR and uv925 anomalies
SSTAs (top-left), SSTA tendency (top-right), Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) anomalies (middle-left), sum of net surface short- and long-
wave radiation, latent and sensible heat flux anomalies (middle-right; positive means heat into the ocean), 925-mb wind anomaly vector and its
amplitude (bottom-left), 200-mb wind anomaly vector and its amplitude (bottom-right). SST are derived from the OISSTv2.1 SST analysis, OLR
from the NOAA 18 AVHRR IR window channel measurements by NESDIS, winds and surface radiation and heat fluxes from the NCEP CDAS.
Anomalies are departures from the 1991-2020 base period means. 51
Equatorial Pacific SST (℃), HC300 (℃), u850 (m/s) Anomalies
- Negative SSTA weakened in the eastern Pacific , while enhanced in the western-central Pacific in Jul 2022.
- Strong easterly surface wind prevailed in the western-central Pacific in July, consistent with the negative H300
anomaly re-emergence in the central-eastern Pacific Ocean. 52
Tropical Indian: SSTA, SSTA Tend., OLR, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx, 925-mb & 200-mb Wind Anom.
- Westerly wind
anomaly prevailed
over the eastern
Indian Ocean,
favoring further
warming in the
southeastern Indian
Ocean.
- SSTA tendencies
were generally
consistent with the
net heat flux
anomalies.
SSTAs (top-left), SSTA tendency (top-right), OLR anomalies (middle-left), sum of net surface short- and long-wave radiation, latent and sensible heat
flux anomalies (middle-right), 925-mb wind anomaly vector and its amplitude (bottom-left), 200-mb wind anomaly vector and its amplitude
(bottom-right). SST are derived from the OISSTv2.1 SST analysis, OLR from the NOAA 18 AVHRR IR window channel measurements by NESDIS, winds 53
and surface radiation and heat fluxes from the NCEP CDAS. Anomalies are departures from the 1991-2020 base period means.
North America Western Coastal Upwelling
- Both anomalous
coastal downwelling
and upwelling were
observed since mid-
Apr 2022.
(top) Total and (bottom) anomalous upwelling indices at the 15 standard locations for the western coast of North America. Derived from the vertical
velocity of the NCEP’s GODAS and are calculated as integrated vertical volume transport at 50-meter depth from each location to its nearest coast
point (m3/s/100m coastline). Anomalies are departures from the 1991-2020 base period pentad means.
- Area below (above) black line indicates climatological upwelling (downwelling) season. 54
- Climatologically upwelling season progresses from March to July along the west coast of North America from 36ºN to 57ºN.
NMME forecasts from different initial conditions
55
Global Sea Surface Salinity (SSS): Anomaly for July 2022
56
Global Sea Surface Salinity (SSS): Tendency for July 2022
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Monthly SSS Anomaly Evolution over Equatorial Pacific
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Pentad SSS Anomaly Evolution over Equatorial Pacific
Figure caption:
Hovemoller diagram for
equatorial (5!S-5!N) 5-
day mean SSS, SST and
precipitation anomalies.
The climatology for SSS
is Levitus 1994
climatology. The SST
data used here is the
OISST V2 AVHRR only
daily dataset with its
climatology being
calculated from 1985 to
2010. The precipitation
data used here is the
adjusted CMORPH
dataset with its
climatology being
calculated from 1999 to
2013.
59