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  • All Models Are Wrong, Some Are Useful: Make Decisions

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    This document discusses how while all models of understanding the world are imperfect, some models can still be useful. It notes that British statistician George Box said "All models are wrong, some are useful," meaning we should focus on a model's practical application rather than endless debate over its complete accuracy. The document provides examples of models in physics, productivity, and decision-making that have proven useful despite not being perfectly accurate in all cases. It concludes that we must make decisions even with imperfect knowledge, so it is best to develop a range of "mental models" and focus on applying generally useful ones rather than waiting for complete answers.

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    This document discusses how while all models of understanding the world are imperfect, some models can still be useful. It notes that British statistician George Box said "All models are wrong, some are useful," meaning we should focus on a model's practical application rather than endless debate over its complete accuracy. The document provides examples of models in physics, productivity, and decision-making that have proven useful despite not being perfectly accurate in all cases. It concludes that we must make decisions even with imperfect knowledge, so it is best to develop a range of "mental models" and focus on applying generally useful ones rather than waiting for complete answers.

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    17 views3 pages

    All Models Are Wrong, Some Are Useful: Make Decisions

    Uploaded by

    bey lu
    This document discusses how while all models of understanding the world are imperfect, some models can still be useful. It notes that British statistician George Box said "All models are wrong, some are useful," meaning we should focus on a model's practical application rather than endless debate over its complete accuracy. The document provides examples of models in physics, productivity, and decision-making that have proven useful despite not being perfectly accurate in all cases. It concludes that we must make decisions even with imperfect knowledge, so it is best to develop a range of "mental models" and focus on applying generally useful ones rather than waiting for complete answers.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 3

    All Models Are Wrong, Some are Useful

    In 1976, a British statistician named George Box wrote the famous line, “All
    models are wrong, some are useful.” 

    His point was that we should focus more on whether something can be
    applied to everyday life in a useful manner rather than debating endlessly if
    an answer is correct in all cases. As historian Yuval Noah Harari puts it,
    “Scientists generally agree that no theory is 100 percent correct. Thus, the
    real test of knowledge is not truth, but utility. Science gives us power. The
    more useful that power, the better the science.”

    Even Einstein's work was not perfect in all cases, but it has been incredibly
    useful—not just for increasing our understanding of the world, but also for
    practical purposes. For example, the Global Positioning Systems (GPS) used
    in your phone and in your car must take the effects of relativity into account
    to deliver accurate directions. Without general relativity, our navigation
    systems wouldn’t be accurate.

    How to Make Decisions in an Imperfect World

    What steps can we take to make decisions, given that no single way of
    looking at the world is accurate in all situations?

    One approach is to develop a broad collection of frameworks for thinking


    about the world. Some experts refer to each framework as a “mental model.”
    Each mental model is a way of thinking about the world. The more mental
    models you have, the more tools you have in your thinking toolbox to make
    decisions.
    For example, here are three ways of thinking about productivity:

    1. The 2-Minute Rule: If something takes less than two minutes, do it


    now. The goal of this rule is to help you stop procrastinating and take
    action.

    2. The Ivy Lee Method: Create a to-do list by writing down the six most
    important things you need to accomplish tomorrow, prioritizing those
    items, and working on them in order. The goal of this method is to help
    you work on the most important things first.

    3. The Seinfeld Strategy: Pick a new habit and draw an X on the calendar
    for each day you stick with the behavior. The goal of this method is to
    help you maintain consistency and keep your streak of good behavior
    alive.

    Are any of these models perfect? Of course not. But if you combine them,
    then you have a strategy that can help you take action right now (The 2-
    Minute Rule), a strategy that can help you plan your day more effectively
    (The Ivy Lee Method), and a strategy that can help you maintain consistency
    in the long-run (The Seinfeld Strategy).

    You need a collection of mental models because no single framework can


    work in every situation.

    Doing the Best We Can With What We Have

    Accepting that all models are wrong in certain instances is not a license to
    ignore the facts. As a society, we should search for better answers, look for
    evidence, and strive to increase the accuracy of our knowledge.
    At the same time, there is a common peril on the other end of the spectrum.
    Too many people waste time debating if something is perfectly correct, when
    they should be focusing on if it is practically useful.

    We live in a world filled with uncertainty, but we still need to get things done
    and make decisions. It is our responsibility to develop a way of thinking
    about the world that generally fits the facts we have, but to not get so
    gummed up thinking about things that we never actually do anything. As
    Harvard professor Daniel Gilbert puts it, “The world doesn’t have the luxury
    of waiting for complete answers before it takes action.”

    Impartial answers are the best we have. Focus on what is practical and take
    action. All models are wrong under some circumstances, but the important
    thing is if they are generally useful.

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