Chapter 2.1

THE GLOBAL ASSESSMENT REPORT ON BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
49
CHAPTER 2.1 STATUS AND TRENDS – DRIVERS OF CHANGE
2.1 Chapter 2.1

STATUS AND TRENDS
– DRIVERS OF CHANGE
50
IPBES GLOBAL ASSESSMENT REPORT ON BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

Copyright © 2019, Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3831881
Part of ISBN: 978-3-947851-20-1
Tessa Mazor (Australia), Paula Meli (Brazil), Sara Mingorria

COORDINATING LEAD AUTHORS: (Spain), Daniela Miteva (United States of America), Zsolt
Patricia Balvanera (Mexico), Alexander Pfaff (United States Molnar (Hungary), Francisco Mora (Mexico), Julia Naime
of America) (Mexico), Aidin Niamir (Germany), Jennifer Orgill (United
States of America), Victor Ortíz (Mexico), Diego Pacheco
LEAD AUTHORS: (Bolivia), Emily Pakhtigian (United States of America),
Andrés Viña (Colombia), Eduardo García Frapolli (Mexico), Hannes Palang (Estonia), Ayari Pasquier (Mexico),
Syed Ainul Hussain (India), Leticia Merino (Mexico), Peter Emily Pechar (United States of America), Alma Piñeyro
Akong Minang (Kenya), Nidhi Nagabhatla (India) Nelson (Mexico), Brian Prest (United States of America),
Susan Preston (Canada), Danielle Purifoy (United States of
FELLOWS: America), Navin Ramankutti (Canada), Janet Ranganathan
Anna Sidorovich (Belarus) (United States of America), Juan Carlos Rocha (Sweden/
Colombia), Vanesa Rodriguez Osuna (Germany), Isabel
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS: Ruiz-Mallen (Spain), James Salzman (United States
Marisol Aburto (Mexico), Hussain Al Shammasi (United of America), Florian Schwarzmueller (Australia), Tim
States of America), Luiza Andrade (Brazil), Yildiz Searchinger (United States of America), Hanno Seebens
Aumeeruddy-Thomas (Mauritius/France), Daniel Babai (Germany), Kalev Sepp (Estonia), Verena Seufert
(Hungary), Ruchi Badola (India), Xuemei Bai (Australia), (Germany), Steve Sexton (United States of America), Hilary
Karina Benessaiah (United States of America), Abigail Smith (United States of America), Stephanie Stefanski
Bennett (United States of America), Fernando Berron (United States of America), Alejandra Tauro (Mexico), Faraz
(Mexico), Pedro Brancalion (Brazil), Maria Carnovale (United Usmani (United States of America), Daniel Vennard (United
States of America), Robin Chazdon (United States of Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland), Bibiana
America), Luca Coscieme (Ireland), Helena Cotler (Mexico), Vilá (Argentina), Richard Waite (United States of America),
Sara Curran (United States of America), Fabrice DeClerck Fern Wickson (Norway), Julien Wolfersberger (France), Ali
(Belgium/France), Tariq Deen (Canada/UNU), Moreno Zeeshan (Australia)
Di Marco (Australia), Christopher Doropoulus (Australia),
Lalisa A. Duguma (Ethiopia), Patrice Dumas (France), REVIEW EDITORS:
Driss Ezzine de Blas (France), Katie Fiorella (United States Eric Lambin (Belgium/USA), Jayalaxshmi Mistry (United
of America), Divine Foundjem-Tita (Cameroon), Simon Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland)
Funge-Smith (Italy), Arne Geschke (Australia), Daniel W.
Gladish (Australia), Christopher Golden (United States of THIS CHAPTER SHOULD BE CITED AS:
America), Emmanuel González Ortega (Mexico), Louise Balvanera, P., Pfaff, A., Viña, A., García-Frapolli, E.,
Guibrunet (Mexico/France), Julian Gutt (Germany), Merino, L., Minang, P. A., Nagabhatla, N., Hussain, S. A.
Marwa W Halmy (Egypt), Farah Hegazi (United States of and A. A. Sidorovich (2019) Chapter 2.1. Status and
America), Samantha Hill (United Kingdom of Great Britain Trends – Drivers of Change. In: Global assessment report
and Northern Ireland), Emeline Hily (France), Lori Hunter of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on
(United States of America), Michelle Irengbam (India), Ute Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Brondízio, E. S.,
Jacob (Germany), Pam Jagger (United States of America), Settele, J., Díaz, S., Ngo, H. T. (eds). IPBES secretariat,
Willis Jenkins (United States of America), David Kaczan Bonn, Germany.
(United States of America), Saiful Karim (Australia), A. 152 pages DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.3831881
Justin Kirkpatrick (United States of America), Alfonso
Langle-Flores (Mexico), Wei Liu (China), Alejandro Lozano PHOTO CREDIT:
(United States of America), Ana Catarina Luz (Portugal), P. 49–50: Emilio Hernández Martinez - Art work by Jacobo
Serge P Madiefe (Cameroon), Virginie Maris (France), & Maria Ángeles, Oaxaca, México
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps used in the present report do not imply the
expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and
Ecosystem Services concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning
the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. These maps have been prepared for the sole purpose of facilitating the
assessment of the broad biogeographical areas represented therein.
51
Table of
Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
I. Indirect Drivers: The root causes of transformations – both pros and cons. . . . . . . 55
II. Direct Drivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
III. Development Pathways . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
2.1.1 INTRODUCTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
2.1.2 PAST TRAJECTORIES, THEIR TRADE-OFFS AND INEQUALITIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

2.1.2.1 Maintain nature or meet society’s many & diverse short-run goals? �� 67
2.1.2.2 Inequalities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
2.1.2.2.1 Poverty and inequalities with respect to basic needs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
2.1.2.2.2 Inequalities in Income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
2.1.2.2.3 Lifestyles and Inequalities in Consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
2.1.2.2.4 Inequalities in Environmental Footprints. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
2.1.2.2.5 Inequalities in Social, Environmental, and Historical Constraints. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
2.1.3 INDIRECT DRIVERS: VALUES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

2.1.3.1 Different social groups hold different values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
2.1.3.2 Values of nature are rapidly changing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
2.1.4 INDIRECT DRIVERS: DEMOGRAPHIC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

2.1.4.1 Population dynamics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
2.1.4.2 Migration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
2.1.4.3 Urbanization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
2.1.4.4 Human Capital. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
2.1.4.4.1 Less Agricultural Extension. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
2.1.4.4.2 Indigenous and Local Knowledge. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
2.1.4.4.3 Environmental Education. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
2.1.5 INDIRECT DRIVERS: TECHNOLOGICAL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

2.1.5.1 Traditional Technologies (Indigenous and Local Knowledge). . . . . . . . . . . 79
2.1.5.2 Technological changes in primary sectors (with direct uses of nature) �� 80
2.1.5.2.1 Significant Transitions in Agriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
2.1.5.2.2 Limited Transitions in Biomass Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
2.1.5.3 Technological changes, and trade-offs, within urbanization and industry �� 81
2.1.6 INDIRECT DRIVERS: ECONOMIC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

2.1.6.1 Structural Transition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
2.1.6.1.1 Economic Composition (shifts across sectors) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
2.1.6.1.2 Factors Supporting Sectoral Shifts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
2.1.6.1.3 Implications for nature of Sectoral Shifts (‘composition effects’). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
2.1.6.2 Concentrated Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

2.1.6.3 Trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
2.1.6.3.1 Goods & Materials Flows. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
2.1.6.3.2 Telecoupling and Spillovers: trade-offs embedded within the trading of goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
2.1.6.4 Financial Flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

2.1.6.4.1 Remittances. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
2.1.6.4.2 Financial Standards. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
2.1.6.4.3 Tax Havens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
2.1.7 INDIRECT DRIVERS: GOVERNANCE – MARKET INTERACTIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
2.1.8 INDIRECT DRIVERS: GOVERNANCE – LOCAL COMMUNITY COORDINATION. . . . 93
2.1.9 INDIRECT DRIVERS: GOVERNANCE – STATES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
52
2.1.9.1 Adjusting Development Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95

2.1.9.1.1 Property Rights & Resource-Use Rights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
2.1.9.1.2 Transportation Investments (by context) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
2.1.9.1.3 Subsidies to Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
2.1.9.2 Increasing Conservation Policies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97

2.1.9.2.1 Protected Areas and IPLC Lands/Participation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
2.1.9.2.2 Payments for Ecosystem Services and Other Incentives. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
2.1.9.2.3 Choosing Policy Instruments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
2.1.9.3 Equity Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

2.1.9.3.1 Wealth-based and Race-based Differences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
2.1.9.3.2 Policy Responses (rights, subsidies). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
2.1.9.3.3 Equity & Environmental/Energy Taxes (context dependence). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
2.1.10 INDIRECT DRIVERS: GOVERNANCE – GLOBAL COORDINATION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
2.1.11 INDIRECT-TO-DIRECT DRIVERS: ACTIONS THAT DIRECTLY AFFECT NATURE. . . 106

2.1.11.1 Fisheries, Aquaculture and Mariculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
2.1.11.2 Agriculture and grazing (crops, livestock, agroforestry) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
2.1.11.3 Forestry (logging for wood & biofuels) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
2.1.11.4 Harvesting (wild plants and animals from seascapes and landscapes) �� 110
2.1.11.5 Mining (minerals, metals, oils, fossil fuels) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
2.1.11.6 Infrastructure (dams, cities, roads) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
2.1.11.7 Tourism (intensive and nature-based) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
2.1.11.8 Relocations (of goods and people) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
2.1.11.9 Restoration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
2.1.11.10 Illegal activities with direct impacts on nature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
2.1.12 DIRECT DRIVERS OVERVIEW: AGGREGATING IMPACTS ACROSS SECTORS . . . 117
2.1.13 DIRECT DRIVERS: LAND/SEA-USE CHANGES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119

2.1.13.1 Expansion of agriculture and cities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
2.1.13.2 Fragmentation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
2.1.13.3 Landscape/seascape management intensification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
2.1.13.4 Land degradation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
2.1.14 DIRECT DRIVERS: RESOURCE EXTRACTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

2.1.14.1 Rates of extraction of living and nonliving materials from nature. . . . . . . 121
2.1.14.2 Freshwater withdrawals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
2.1.15 DIRECT DRIVERS: POLLUTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122

2.1.15.1 Emissions into the atmosphere. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
2.1.15.2 Contaminants dissolved in/carried by water. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
2.1.15.3 Disposal or deposition of solids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
2.1.16 DIRECT DRIVERS: INVASIVE ALIEN SPECIES (IAS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
2.1.17 DIRECT DRIVERS: CLIMATE CHANGE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126

2.1.17.1 Sea-Level Rise. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
2.1.17.2 Ocean Acidification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
2.1.18 PAST PATHWAYS: INCREASING CONNECTIVITY & FEEDBACKS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128

2.1.18.1 Illustrating interconnections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
2.1.18.2 Evolving economic and environmental interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
2.1.18.2.1 Growing globalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
2.1.18.2.2 Spreading spillovers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
2.1.18.2.3 Causing conflicts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
2.1.18.3 Evolving economic and environmental trade-offs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
2.1.18.4 Feedback loops and natural-social trajectories. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
2.1.18.4.1 Interactions, abrupt changes, and linked negative trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
2.1.18.4.2 Citizen feedback to governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
2.1.18.4.3 Scaling up and extending positive responses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
53
CHAPTER 2.1
STATUS AND TRENDS

– DRIVERS OF CHANGE
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY while education affects changes in populations and per-

person degradation − potentially at the cost of losses of
Global transformation involved key trade-offs, and the knowledge held by IPLCs {2.1.4}. Scarcities in nature’s
inequalities, as growing interactions drove economic contributions have driven innovations that shift trade-
growth but also degradation. offs, from the Green Revolution to massive hydroelectric
dams, with genetic engineering, fracking, wind power,
Accelerations in consumption and interconnection have had and other trends all to be fiercely debated {2.1.5}. The
trade-offs. diffusion of such innovations could lower total degradation,
while globalization has shifted degradation far away from
i. Meeting basic material needs, and rising hopes consumption {2.1.5, 2.1.6}. Local community governance
of growing populations has had trade-offs. Nature has organized more sustainable production {2.1.8} while
has been degraded by the aggregated impacts of nations, as ‘global community citizens’, have initiated a
myriad actions (well established). Today, humans range of governance agreements, which had a range of
extract more from the earth than ever before (~60 billion fates. Nations also have adopted domestic conservation
tons of renewable and nonrenewable resources) {2.1.2} policies and even adjusted economic policies for nature
with population doubling over 50 years {2.1.4} and the per {2.1.9, 2.1.10}. Supply chains are challenging national
person consumption of materials up 15% since 1980. Since governance yet also signaling citizens’ environmental
1970, global extraction of biomass, fossil fuels, minerals, preferences {2.1.7}.
and metals increased sixfold {2.1.6, 2.1.11, 2.1.14}.
Urban area doubled since 1992 and half of agricultural iii. Within and across countries, outcomes
expansion (1980–2000) was into tropical forests {2.1.13}. trajectories have been unequal – for nature, for
Fishing now covers over half the ocean {2.1.11}. Since basic individual human needs, and for aggregate
1980, greenhouse gas emissions doubled {2.1.11, 2.1.12}, economic growth rates (well established). Forest
raising average global temperature by at least 0.7 degrees cover stabilized in high income countries but since 1990
{2.1.12} and plastic pollution increased tenfold {2.1.15}. fell 30% in low income countries {2.1.11} as agricultural
Over 80% of global wastewater is discharged into the area fell in the former but rose in the latter {2.1.11,
environment without treatment, while 300–400 million tons 2.1.13}. Natural assets values fell 1% in low income
of heavy metals, solvents, toxic sludge, and other wastes countries, since 1995, yet rose 5% in middle and upper-
are dumped into the world’s waters each year {2.1.15}. middle income countries {2.1.2, 2.1.13}. While 860 million
Fertilizers enter coastal ecosystems, producing more than people face food insecurity in Africa and Asia, obesity is
400 hypoxic zones and affecting a total area of more than rising in high and middle income countries {2.1.2}. Per
245,000 km2 {2.1.15}. The number of recorded invasive capita demand for materials from nature is four times
alien species doubled over 50 years {2.1.16}. Today, a higher in high and low income countries {2.1.2}. Per
full 75% of the terrestrial environment, 40% of the marine capita consumption of animal protein rose by 50% during
environment, and 50% of streams manifest severe impacts 1960–2010, to ~55 g/capita/day within the US and the
of degradation {2.1.12}. EU, and ~30 g/capita/day in Latin America, but only
~15 g/capita/day in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa {2.1.2}.
ii. Accomplishments and shortfalls in the past − Contrasts are clear in the satisfaction of basic needs and
and the futures that we will shape − follow from the maintenance of nature and the two are linked, e.g.,
variations in values, demography, innovation, trade 40% of the globe’s population lacks access to clean and
and governance (well established). Over the last 50 safe drinking water and the highest gaps drive up child
years, utilitarian instrumental views framed nature chiefly mortality in Africa {2.1.2}. Environments-based health
as a source of inputs, although narrow views have been burdens (e.g., air or water pollution) are born by people
challenged by varied institutions {2.1.3}. Irrespective of with lower-income {2.1.2, 2.1.15}, while GDP per capita is
values, our increasing numbers drive degradation. Urban 34 times larger in developed than in developing countries
concentration shifts the trade-offs that we face {2.1.4}, and still it is rising faster within the former {2.1.2}.
54
I. Indirect Drivers: The root decreases, as developed countries have experienced in the
causes of transformations – both past {2.1.4}. That said, those decreases in fertility rates
result not from an automatic ‘demographic transition’,
pros and cons based upon economic development alone, but instead from
Values, demography, innovation, trade and conditions including women’s empowerment and their
governance drive outcomes access to family planning methods {2.1.3}.
I-A. INDIRECT DRIVERS − VALUES 3 Education causes and is caused by economic

growth – which in turn degrades, lowering human
1 The ways in which nature is conceived of and capital – yet education also can influence the rates of
valued have had enormous implications for different degradation (well established). Education has increased
consumption and production choices that influence globally, in particular for women, with implications for human
degradation (well established). Values differ across capital accumulation and, thereby, use of nature {2.1.4}.
people, and evolve over time, informed by cultures and Together, those capital assets form a large share of national
experiences {2.1.2.3}. Values toward nature may be wealth, in particular for lower-income countries, and support
grounded in ethical principles, and relationships, or an ongoing investment in education {2.1.4}. Environmental
predominantly utilitarian, focused on immediate preferences education can support lower degradation per unit of
or leaning toward consideration of the future {2.1.2.3}. economic growth, through shifts in both production and
Globalization, migration, urbanization, and climate change individual habits {2.1.4}. This has benefits for human capital,
are disruptors that can catalyse shifts in values towards as for example pollution lowers human productivity
nature {2.1.3}. Relational worldviews and values with strong {2.1.4, 2.1.13}.
ties to the land are central in many cultures around the
world, associated to self-imposed restriction based on 4 Appreciation of indigenous and local knowledge
norms {2.1.3}. Narrower utilitarian, instrumental views of (ILK) for managing nature is rising yet, at the same
nature as a source of economic inputs, though, underpinned time, these local knowledge systems continue to be
a variety of actions that promote resource extraction, degraded (well established). Indigenous and local
industrialization, urbanization, and global trade, which knowledge (ILK) generated within IPLCs increasingly is seen
continue to intensify {2.1.3}. Such views have been as relevant for sustainable production. It offers broadly
challenged in the last fifty years by calls for other ethics to applicable alternatives to centralized and technically oriented
mediate the interactions among and between humans and solutions, which often have not substantially improved
nature {2.1.3}. Examples of such narratives are the “living in prospects for smaller producers {2.1.4, 2.1.5, 2.1.11,
harmony with nature” principle of the Rio 1992 Summit of 2.1.13}. Yet, at the very same time, values and knowledge
The Earth conference, the Mother Earth emphasis within change with exposures including formal education, which
“the future we want” vision from Rio+20, and Pope Francis’ can erode local worldviews that prioritized nature
recent encyclical {2.1.3}. Such visions of well-being and {2.1.3, 2.1.4}.
links to nature clearly have evolved over time {2.1.3}. For
instance, if nature is degraded over time, while economies 5 Migration is both a cause and an effect of
grow, core values may shift from a narrower orientation nature’s degradation. Links in both directions are
toward economic development to an integration of other connected to patterns of vulnerability, in rural as well
dimensions such as varied capacities, justice, security and as urban areas (well established). Migration has
equity − all linking with nature in different ways {2.1.3}. Yet, increased greatly, with 264 million international migrants
stepping back, while all these views contributed to entering other countries since 1970: more to developed
conservation and restoration in some locations, at the global countries {2.1.4}. Environmental and economic factors
level degradation of nature has continued despite increasing contribute to this migration. Today, environmental migrants
high-level awareness of degradation and scarcity {2.1.3}. number several million {2.1.2, 2.1.4} given inequity across
regions in conditions for well-being and in provisioning and
I-B. INDIRECT DRIVERS − DEMOGRAPHY regulating contributions from nature that are among the
most important determinants {2.1.2, 2.1.4}. Immigrants are
2 For any values, population size is a big factor in often among the most vulnerable groups in society, with low
scales of degradation (well established). Human access to nature’s contributions to basic needs (water,
population has been growing, globally, doubling since 1970 sanitation and nutrition), yet they can have impacts on how
overall, and despite regional variations this growth is nature is managed, including due to differences in values
expected to continue − with implications for degradation {2.1.2, 2.1.4}.
{2.1.4, 2.1.13}. The largest current increases are in least
developed countries and in Africa, where the total 6 Urbanization has been rapid, with enormous
population doubled, yet countries are starting to experience consequences including spatial patterns of land use
55
that affect nature and NCP provision in urban and rural and used around the world {2.1.5}. More than in other
areas (well established). Today, close to 60% of the regions, households in sub-Saharan Africa and East Africa in
world’s population lives in cities, with the fastest increases in particular still depend on biomass for domestic energy
Asia and the Pacific (25% rise in urban share in 1980–2010) supply (and some high income countries are promoting
and Africa (37%). There are 2.8 billion people now in renewable woody biomass). By setting, this can adversely
megacities, with the fastest growth in low- (45% since 1980) affect human health and provision of contributions such as
and lower-middle income (39%) countries {2.1.4}. In the climate regulation and species habitats {2.1.5}. Information
developing world, many of those people live in slums, with a constraints, costs of capital, cultural preferences, and slow
low quality of environment and life {2.1.4}. Cities are sources development of market institutions inhibit adoptions of
of innovations in transport, industry and medicine, however, modern fuels (e.g., liquid petroleum gas or electricity) {2.1.5}.
their high densities affect spatial patterns of land use and, The resulting deforestation not only lowers multiple
thereby, nature {2.1.4}. Urban consumers have huge impacts contributions from nature but also threatens local supplies of
and thus the potential to drive global changes {2.1.4}. energy {2.1.5, 2.1.12}. Demands for energy are also
increasingly met by hydroelectric dams, with projected
I-C. INDIRECT DRIVERS − TECHNOLOGY expansions in Latin America, Africa and Asia − again
changing the production-degradation trade-offs {2.1.5}.
7 By region, IPLC practices are expanding in their
use or disappearing (well established). Much of the 10 Scarcity of nature’s contributions has motivated
globe’s population appropriates natural resources via rural or various adjustments (well established). Scarcities due to
primary management of terrestrial, marine and freshwater the degradation of nature have motivated shifts towards
ecosystems {2.1.2, 2.1.4, 2.1.5}. Related IPLCs practices methods of production with lower material or environmental
based on long-standing knowledge of complex local intensities {2.1.2.1}. For instance, households invest in
ecological systems are seen to be resilient in IPLCs and cleaner stoves when rising incomes raise food consumption
among small-holders who together are ~2 billion people with and thus also fuels consumption for cooking, such that
25% of land {2.1.5}. For instance, the agroforestry systems indoor air quality falls {2.1.5}. Information on water quality
in many tropical countries have common characteristics: motivates purification efforts from village infrastructures to
highly diversified, productive, complex, and using rotations in household filters and bottled water {2.1.5}. In irrigation,
agriculture – as well as grazing, hunting, and fishing {2.1.5}. scarcity of water quantity drives societal innovation like
Yet a combination of lifestyle change, adaptation to climate upstream-downstream allocation committees {2.1.5}. High
change, seasonal migration, enclosures, privatization, and prices for fossil fuels inspire novelties from rural extensions
degradation of resources is strongly affecting both the of electric grids to solar lamps and wind energy as well as
settlement patterns and the lifestyles of the peoples who batteries to store the output {2.1.5}. Positive effects of such
manage directly these diverse systems {2.1.5}. innovations include those from their diffusion {2.1.5}.
Broader use allows low income countries to avoid more
8 Technological advances in agriculture brought environmentally destructive stages of economic growth by
new benefits and costs (well established). The Green ‘leapfrogging ahead’ to more modern technologies of
Revolution brought opportunities and risks − exemplifying production with less degradation per unit of output {2.1.2.1}.
the need to consider both social and environmental Policy innovations may seek to spur such private innovation
trade-offs of innovations that benefit aggregate economic and adoption in light of critical degradations of nature
output {2.1.5}. Yields of rice, maize and wheat all increased, {2.1.5}. Concerns about climate change, for instance, have
steadily, through greater application of irrigation, fertilizers, led to proposals for carbon taxes, so that fuel and other
machinery, and seed varieties with higher yields and prices reflect degradation and spur innovation in both
resistance to disease {2.1.5}. Yet despite aggregate gains, mitigation and adaptation {2.1.5}.
there were losses for some groups and for the environment
(all raising possible trade-offs in agricultural genetic I-D. INDIRECT DRIVERS − ECONOMY
engineering) {2.1.5}. Food security may have fallen, for
some, as production shifted from subsistence approaches 11 Transitions across sectors greatly influence the
which had fed Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities degradation of nature (well established). As economies
to monocultures that offered lower nutrition and access to have grown, since 1950, many have shifted from agriculture
markets {2.1.2, 2.1.5}. Further, despite greater food toward both industry and services {2.1.6}, resulting in far
availability famine continued given institutional failures higher shares in agriculture for value added, and employment,
{2.1.2, 2.1.5}. for the low income countries {2.1.6}. This affects
management of nature, given that industrialized economies
9 Transitions from biomass to other energy are characterized by the lowest materials intensities {2.1.6}
sources have large impacts (well established). – although we must keep in mind that this is due in part to
Innovations have also greatly shifted how energy is produced their imports of agriculture (see below). At 0.5 tons of
56
domestic material consumption per US$1000 GDP, Europe as domestic degradation falls {2.1.6}. This all influences
and North America had the lowest 2013 intensities (down equity too, e.g., whether in current market institutions
from 0.8 and 1 in 1980, respectively) {2.1.6}, as influenced suppliers of resources get ‘equitable’ compensation {2.1.6}.
by the methods noted above as well as sectors Different trade-offs arise when forest in low income countries
characterized by lower material per unit of economic output is conserved by importing from high income countries,
{2.1.6}. Yet even material efficiency can be swamped by which can occur when efficient uses of capital lower the
rising production {2.1.6} and, while Asia’s intensity remained total areas in production – a phenomenon that may lower
relatively constant at ~2.5 tons per $1000 US GDP between local incomes in that sector or spur other local sectors
1980 and 1992, since 2003 intensity rose again, reaching {2.1.6, 2.1.13}.
3.1 tons in 2013 − with immense impact on average global
intensity {2.1.6}. African economies still have the highest I-E. INDIRECT DRIVERS − GOVERNANCE
intensities but gains over 3 0 years have been significant,
e.g., from 4.2 tons per $1000 US GDP in 1980 to 3.3 tons 14 Pro-environmental signaling from consumers has
in 2013 {2.1.6}. Evidence is mixed for time paths as grown, within multiple supply chains, yet the
economies grow, with the scale of consumption potentially documentation of significant impacts on nature has
offset by the mix of what is consumed and the way in which been limited (well established). Consumers at the ends
it is produced. Forests show reversals from degradation to of supply chains increasingly request information about the
recovery, while different pollution types have mixed paths, practices and the degradation linked with production. It can
including due to trade {2.1.6, 2.1.13}. be facilitated by civil society, even across borders, as third
parties collaborate with all of the private actors engaged in
12 Concentration of output and funds – sometimes varied exchanges {2.1.6, 2.1.7}. Sustainable production
associated with industrial innovation − influences certifications, terrestrial or marine, have risen greatly – for
what is produced and who benefits within and across practices both environmental and social – yet despite some
countries (well established). Today, a few corporations positive anecdotes, large impacts remain rare {2.1.6}.
and/or financiers often control large shares of the flows in
any market, as well as amounts of capital assets that rival 15 Community governance has reduced or reversed
total revenues for a vast majority of countries {2.1.6}. These degradation (well established). Local actors have often
concentrations and their locations can hamper nature conserved nature in common property systems − using local
governance efforts (see below) {2.1.6}. Related, increasing information, social norms, and abilities to impose cost
shares of relevant sectors (e.g., coffee, fruits & vegetables, {2.1.2, 2.1.8}. For centuries, IPLCs have contributed in this
textiles & apparel, furniture) are supplied through value way to regional economies. In recent decades, the share of
chains featuring considerable power at the retail ends resources such as forests governed by Indigenous Peoples
{2.1.6}. This affects bargaining in exchanges of labor, and and Local Communities has grown {2.1.8}. Governance of
goods made with natural resources, including in the shared resources can be facilitated by access to resources
agricultural, fisheries and forestry sectors {2.1.6}. The and information sharing; for instance, the unassessed
location of power additionally affects regulatory oversight, smaller fisheries have fared worse {2.1.8}. Lacking
with respect to environmental and social issues {2.1.6} – comprehensive global data, we have sufficient cases of both
e.g., infrastructure development is known for its murky successes and failures to have learned that community
oversight and for its impacts upon nature. Funding via tax governance can be effective, yet it is not always {2.1.8}, and
havens provided 68% of foreign capital for Amazonian soy successes may rely in part on the roles of formal
and beef production and supported 70% of the vessels that governments − e.g., without the public defense of local
are implicated in illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing rights to manage resource and to exclude others,
{2.1.6, 2.1.11}. community areas of terrestrial and aquatic resources can be
invaded and local efforts thus undermined {2.1.8}.
13 Expanding trade means consumption affects
degradation elsewhere (well established). Domestic 16 Public clarifications of rights influence
material consumption per capita is highest for the developed investments that affect nature (well established).
countries and rapidly increasing for developing countries Allocating private rights may generate conflicts concerning
{2.1.2, 2.1.6}. Net goods flows vary, with some countries fairness or equity − yet clear rights can improve the
exporting more and others importing more {6}. Generally, efficiency of both investment and management by, e.g.,
developed countries reduced agricultural outputs over the smallholders who are incentivized to monitor nature locally,
last 50 years {2.1.6, 2.1.12}, and domestic water footprints, as for terrestrial multiple-use protected areas {2.1.8, 2.1.9}.
while importing crops from low income countries {2.1.6}. Clear examples of the importance of rights also exist for
Environmental degradation from the production of those large- and small-scale fisheries which used rights-based
traded goods should be taken into account in assessing governance to maintain fish stocks {2.1.8}. Successes in
importing countries’ net impacts, as total impacts can rise management have been more frequent when such local
57
rights were established in ways that respected local pressures were confronted and if that included engaging
procedures. When government ignores local governance, with locals {2.1.9}. Impacts have been more common in
public interventions can be destructive {2.1.8, 2.1.9}. high income countries, although funding transfers support
interventions in low income countries that provide global
17 Public facilitation of sustainable land-use public goods (e.g., carbon storage and habitats) {2.1.9}.
practices − such as agroforestry, agroecology − Restrictions in low income countries can have positive local
shows promise and perhaps potential for upscaling outcomes if support is provided yet unless local actors are a
(well established). With appropriate support, both focus, economic costs can be higher than local benefits
financial and non-financial, sustainable agroecological {2.1.9}. Generally, equity considerations can shift the
practices have restored nature and its contributions. At choices and implementation of such policy. Policies’ benefits
varied scales, these have been observed in multiple and costs often are not equally distributed across either
locations across the globe from farmer-managed income levels or other dimensions, including race, though
regeneration in dry parkland forests in Africa to a variety of who bears the burden varies greatly with varied use
Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities forests which patterns. Rights allocations and subsidies affect disparities,
function under forestry certifications {2.1.8}. Yet there can in either direction − again varying by context.
also be spillovers from such intervention – e.g., raising
forest cover within a country may be facilitated by 21 Governments have coordinated to reduce some
degradation elsewhere, as forest clearing simply shifts (see types of degradation (well established). National
Asian examples) {2.1.8}. borders limit governance of transboundary resources. While
various global ‘commons’ are judged to be worth
18 Leading economic policies (e.g., roads, credit, conserving, including outside of national jurisdictions,
private rights) can be adjusted to lower degradation of accountability for failures of sustainable management there
nature and potentially at a low cost to affected has been, at the least, uneven {2.1.10}. Like individuals in
economies (well established). One way governments communities, nations can agree upon self-regulations that
stimulate economies is by investing in infrastructures for aid global ‘commons’ by mutually limiting degradation, even
transport {2.1.9}. An obvious option to reduce its when facing high costs of organizing restrictions, as well as
degradation is planning the routes for economic corridors threats to their stability based on nations’ political shifts over
{9}. With good local information, and processes, this can time {2.1.10}. For global coordination such as about
lower the costs of satisfying all stakeholder safeguards. biodiversity, the ozone layer, the climate system, the oceans,
Another core policy is establishing and enforcing clear and poles, the coordination of actors can be even more
tenure {2.1.8, 2.1.9}. Clarifying smallholder rights, including difficult than for local communities {2.1.10}. Still, even if
around customary tenure, can lower natural degradation some policies have not had short-run impact, efforts are
{2.1.8, 2.1.9}. Further, it can spur greater investment in ongoing. For example, a relatively recent endorsement by
productivity, including within sustainable approaches. 170 states of FAO’s Code of Conduct for Responsible
Fisheries (CCRF) in 1995, as well as a growing endorsement
19 Popular economic subsidies to degrading of The Agreement on Port State Measures to Prevent, Deter
behaviours can be adjusted (well established). and Eliminate Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing,
Subsidies to various forms of energy (gasoline, electricity, which came into force in June 2016 (now with 54 countries),
etc.) are common and popular {2.1.9}. Possible adjustments have contributed to a lowering of illegal, unreported, and
include maintaining income transfers while removing price unregulated fishing {2.1.10}.
distortions that have raised environmentally damaging
behaviours {2.1.9}. Alternatively, such credits, or transfers,
can be made conditional on environmental metrics (just as in II. Direct Drivers
conservation policies below) {2.1.9}.
Demands have led to varied actions with multiple
20 Public conservation policies like protected areas impacts upon nature
(PAs) and payments for ecosystem services (PES)
reduce degradation if pressure was confronted and II-A. DIRECT DRIVERS – SECTORS (actions that link
local actors engaged (well established). A growing set indirect drivers to aggregated impacts)
‘payments for ecosystem services’ (PES) compensate local
actors for restrictions on uses of nature {2.1.9}. States also 22 Fisheries have the largest footprint − with all of
directly restrict production or extraction as in protected industrial extraction, aquaculture and mariculture,
areas, the most extensive conservation measures, and and the small fisheries critical for the livelihoods of
undertaken costly actions to restore nature {2.1.9}. The millions (well established). Today, industrial fishing has a
gains for nature from such interventions have ranged from footprint four times larger than agriculture, in which more
none to quite significant, based on whether and how than the 70,000 reported industrial fishing vessels cover at
58
least 55% of the oceans − with hotspots for fishing in the although the areas of planted forests rose by 110 million ha
northeast Atlantic, northwest Pacific, and upwelling regions (51%) {2.1.11}. Industrial roundwood made up half of the
off South America and West Africa {2.1.11}. Smaller global harvest (3.9 billion m3 in 2017), with fuelwood the
fisheries account for over 90% of the commercial fishers other half {2.1.11}. Industrial harvest is falling in high income
(over 100 million people), as well as nearly half (46%) of the countries but rising in upper-middle and lower-middle
total global fish catch, yet the rest of global fish production income countries {2.1.11}. Global bioenergy uses almost
is quite concentrated, within a few countries and a few tripled, largely in Africa, although bioenergy fell as a share −
corporations. Knowledge of inland fisheries is limited, from 15% to 10% − with 30% of global fuelwood deemed
despite their societal and ecological significance unsustainable and over 200 million people facing rural
(accounting for up to 12% of global fisheries production). fuelwood scarcities, mostly in South Asia and East Africa
The contribution of aquaculture and mariculture to global {2.1.11}. Sustainable forestry has been tried in many
fish production is increasing (6–9% growth in 1990–2012), countries, over some time, including for forest certification,
with mixed effects upon coastal and marine ecosystems. with some positive impacts upon forest cover and
While nearly 75% of the major marine fish stocks are biodiversity, although mixed social impacts {2.1.11}.
currently depleted, or overexploited, since 1992 the global
fishery community has incrementally adopted sustainable 25 Harvesting wild plants and animals from land-
development principles created under the umbrella of and seascapes supports the livelihoods of a large
mainstreaming biodiversity in fisheries. share of the globe’s population, raising sustainability
concerns (well established). Over 350 million people −
23 Agriculture, including grazing, has immense mostly lower-income households in Africa, Asia, Latin
impacts upon terrestrial ecosystems, with important America − depend on non-timber forest products (NTFPs)
differences depending upon enterprise’s intensity and for subsistence and income. Over six million tons of
size (well established). Agricultural systems remain quite medium-to-large-sized mammals, birds, and reptiles are
varied, with plant- and animal-based systems, harvested in the tropics, annually, for bushmeat. Also,
monocultures and mixed farming, plus newly emerging ~6 million wild ungulates are harvested in the Northern
systems including organic, precision, and peri-urban Hemisphere every year, by game hunters {2.1.11}. Evidence
approaches to production. Today, over a third of the world’s on sustainability is sparse, yet a well-managed harvesting of
land surface and ~3/4 of freshwater resources are devoted resources with strong local involvement could benefit both
to agropastoral production {2.1.11}. Grazing occurs on livelihoods and conservation {2.1.11}.
~50% of agricultural lands and ~70% of drylands {2.1.11}.
About 25% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions come from 26 Mining has risen dramatically, with big impacts
land clearing, crop production, and fertilization, with on terrestrial biodiversity hotspots and global oceans,
animal-based food contributing 75% of it. Intensive mostly in developing areas with weaker regulation
agriculture has led to increases in food production at a cost (established but incomplete). Hundreds of mined
of multiple regulating and non-tangible contributions from products serve quite diverse purposes, globally, contributing
nature and even overall decreases in well-being in cases more than 60% of 2014 GDP for 81 countries, with 17,000
{2.1.11}. Small land holders (< 2 ha) contribute ~30% of large-scale sites in 171 countries. Most minerals are
global crop production and ~30% of the global food supply produced by large international corporations {2.1.11}. Still,
− using 24% of agricultural land and with the largest small-scale mining is important in the livelihoods of many
agrobiodiversity levels {2.1.11}. Their diverse agricultural rural poor in the developing world − where many
systems, developed over centuries, have reduced negative corporations have now located, given weaker environmental
impacts on nature, providing a wide range of material and and social regulations (Africa is estimated to have 40% of
regulating and non-material contributions, while generating global gold, 60% of cobalt, and 90% of platinum reserves)
the basis for sustainable agriculture intensification, soil {2.1.9, 2.1.11}. Such impacts of mining are a growing
management and integrated pest management {2.1.11}. concern, including per conflicts and illegality – although
Organic agriculture has developed rapidly, with variable systematic quantitative data are unavailable {2.1.9, 2.1.11,
outcomes: in general, it has contributed to higher 2.1.13}. Mining utilizes under 1% of global land but its
biodiversity, improved soil or water quality, and nutritional negative impact on biodiversity, availability and quality of
values, although often at the expense of lowering yields water, and human health may be larger than from agriculture
and/or raising consumer prices {2.1.11}. {2.1.11}. Gold mining is of particular concern, given the
rising demands and big impacts on biodiversity hotspots
24 Industrial roundwood harvests have risen, while (despite protected areas) {2.1.11}. Ocean mining has been
bioenergy use rose dramatically in the rural areas of increasing, with ~6,500 offshore oil and gas installations,
poorer regions, with some sustainable forest worldwide, in 53 countries (60% in the Gulf of Mexico) and
management (well established). Reductions in forest possible expansion in the Artic and Antarctic regions as ice
cover during 1990 to 2015 totaled 290 million ha (~6%), melts {2.1.11}.
59
27 Dams, roads, and cities have strong local this period, while the voyage lengths have also increased
negative impacts on nature, yet they also can have {2.1.11}. The transport of goods and people have direct,
positive spillovers associated to increased efficiency indirect, and cumulative impacts upon nature including
and innovation (well established). While new pollution (of air, water and soil), greenhouse gas emissions
infrastructure tends to have negative local consequences for (contributing 15% of the global CO2 emissions) and varied
nature, it can also have significant positive and negative durable consequences along trade routes including
spillovers {2.1.11}. The total number of dams has escalated introductions of invasive alien species {2.1.11}.
in 50 years, with ~50,000 large dams (> 15 m height), and
~17 million reservoirs (> 0.01 ha) holding ~8,070 km3 of 30 Restoration can offset current degradation levels,
water {2.1.11}. Urban area, while accounting less than 3% with varied intensities and outcomes, although global
of the total land area, is rising faster than urban population initiatives have focused mostly on our forests
and is associated with large effects beyond cities, which (established but incomplete). Restoration increasingly is
affect regional climates, hydrology and pollution {2.1.11}. Yet required, given the ongoing degradation of various
urban areas can excel in stewardship, e.g., raising flood ecosystem types. It offers direct and indirect benefits through
resilience, reducing emissions, and constructing biodiversity material, regulating and non-material NCP {2.1.11}.
friendly spaces {2.1.11}. New transport infrastructure tends Approaches range from passive to active − with distinct
to raise forest losses on frontiers, with direct negative costs, limitations, extents, and outcomes − though no global
impacts on biodiversity, plus exacerbate the environmental data are available on its current extent and outcomes
impacts of other developments, such as large mining {2.1.11}. One large-scale initiative is the Bonn Challenge
operations {2.1.11}. Yet within more developed settings, aiming to restore 350 M ha of degraded forestland worldwide
shifts in transport costs can help forests {2.1.11}. Increasing by 2030, yet no similar global challenges have been
human encroachment, land reclamation, and coastal proposed for any non-forest ecosystems {2.1.11}.
development have strong impacts on coastal environments
{2.1.11}. More and better planned infrastructure is found in 31 Illegal extraction – including fishing, forestry and
higher income countries while fast, ill-planned expansion of poaching – adds to unsustainability, yet is fostered by
infrastructure is found in rapidly growing urban and markets (local, global) and poor governance
peri-urban settlements, especially in Africa and South and (established but incomplete). Illegal, unreported or
East Asia {2.1.11}. unregulated (IUU) fishing made up 33% of the world’s total
catch in 2011, being highest off the coast of West Africa and
28 Tourism has risen dramatically with huge in the Southwest Atlantic {2.1.11}. Illegal forestry supplies
impacts on nature overall, higher impacts for the 10–15% of global timber, going up to 50% in some areas,
higher-end options, and mixed outcomes from worsening both revenues (for private or state owners) and
nature-based options (well established). Tourism grew livelihoods for poor rural inhabitants. Illegal pressures also
dramatically in the last 20 years both domestically and increase the costs of trying sustainable forest management
internationally, especially from high and upper-middle {2.1.11}. Illegal production of biofuels is large, especially for
income countries, with international travel levels tripling small, poor, informal actors in Africa {2.1.11}. Poaching is
{2.1.11}. During 2009–2013, tourism’s carbon footprint rose rising, pushing species (e.g., rhinos, tigers) toward extinction
40% to 4.5 Gt of carbon dioxide (8% of the total greenhouse despite considerable international efforts {2.1.11}. Illegality is
gas emissions involved in transport and food consumption incentivized by high prices of species in demand and, for the
related to tourism) {2.1.11}. Most of those emissions are in, low prices often received by the poor, driven by weak
or from, high income countries. The impacts of a trip vary regulation and enforcement, with corruption and poor
1000-fold in terms of energy use, being higher for luxury management {2.1.11}.
accommodations and selected transportation types for the
globally growing class of wealthy travelers {2.1.11}. The II-B. DIRECT DRIVERS − AGGREGATED IMPACTS OF
demand for nature-based or eco-tourism also has risen, ALL ACTIONS ON NATURE
with mixed effects on nature and societies {2.1.11}.
32 The largest transformations in the last 30 years
29 Both airborne and seaborne transportation of have been from increases in urban area, expansions
goods and people has risen dramatically, causing of the areas fished, and the transformations of
both increased pollution and a significant rise in tropical forests (well established). Today, 75 per cent of
invasive alien species (well established). Transport of the total land surface and 40 per cent of the ocean area are
goods and people has risen drastically over the last few severely altered {2.1.12}. The total area of cities has doubled
decades, with the number of air flights doubling globally from 1992 to 2015, with the most severe impacts in tropical
(1980–2010) and tripling for high income countries {2.1.11}. and subtropical savannas and grasslands {2.1.13}.
Seaborne carriage has doubled for oil, quadrupled for Agriculture area in the tropics expanded mostly at the
general cargo, and quintupled for grain and minerals over expense of tropical forests, with large expansions (~35
60
million ha) associated with cattle ranching in Latin America, densities but also large differences in detection capacities
linked to diets, and plantations, including for oil palm and ‘invasibility’ across alien species.
{2.1.13}. Land-cover changes have led to increasing
fragmentation of the remaining forest as well {2.1.13}. 36 Climate has changed since pre-industrial times
Technological advance in agriculture, fisheries and due to anthropogenic activities and has influenced
aquaculture, and forestry has yielded at times irreversible impacts, on nature and society, of many other critical
shifts in ecosystems and in nature’s contributions. These are drivers (well established). Anthropogenic activities − in
exacerbated by greater livestock densities, changes in fire particular those raising greenhouse gas emissions − are
regimes, and intensifications leading to accelerated pollution estimated to have caused approximately a 1.0°C warming
of soils and water {2.1.13}. Soil degradation − including by 2017, versus pre-industrial times, with ~0.2°C (±0.1°C)
erosion, acidification, and salinity − has increased globally, rises per decade. The fastest changes are observed in flat
although further systematic and reliable information will be landscapes at higher latitudes {2.1.17}. The frequency and
required {2.1.13}. the magnitude of extreme weather events both have
increased across the last five decades, while the global
33 Demands for materials for nature have escalated, average sea level rose at a rate of over 3 mm yr-1 over the
especially in developing countries and the Asia and last decades {2.1.12, 2.1.17}. Greenhouse gas emissions
the Pacific region, accounting for unprecedented per capita are highest for developed countries, though are
global impacts (well established). The total demands for decreasing there; they are followed by those in developing
living and nonliving materials increased sixfold from 1970 to countries where they have increased by 10% since 1970.
2010, while the demand for materials used in construction Decreases are associated to changes in behaviour, due to
and industry quadrupled during that time. The most drastic perceived threats, plus responses in governance and
increases in demands for construction materials – on the innovation – as well as some shifts in emissions to other
order of ten times − occurred within developing countries countries {2.1.17}.
and the Asia and the Pacific region. The extraction of living
biomass from agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting, and other
activities has nearly tripled, globally − with the rapidly III. Development Pathways
growing developing countries having the highest current
levels for the rates of extraction for all living and nonliving Dominant development dynamics involved complex
materials {2.1.12, 2.1.14}. interactions across countries and regions, leading to
inequalities in nature and trade-offs
34 Pollution has been increasing at least as fast as
total population, with key differences by region and by 37 Rising interactions via global trade shifted
type of pollution − with more monitoring needed consumption’s footprints (well established). The
(established but incomplete). While quantitative consumption footprint per capita of each country, measured
assessment of pollution is limited in terms of the amount as the amount of land needed to support consumption,
and quality of data in many countries, current data show rises with per capita income or per capita GDP. Thus, it is far
pollution rising at least as fast as is the human population. from equal. It rises even more rapidly for elements beyond
Untreated urban sewage, industrial and agriculture run-offs, the consuming country’s borders that can reflect stronger
as well as oil spills, and dumping of toxic compounds, have governance of nature within the consuming countries. That
had strong negative effects on freshwater and marine water affects nature more in low income countries with weaker
quality {2.1.15}. Non-greenhouse gas atmospheric pollution, governance {2.1.18}. Alternatively, production might shift to
such particulate matter, is highest in countries with low or no more efficient locations and reduce total degradation as
regulation standards and poor enforcement, often at lower efficient production lowers market incentives for supply.
income. Fertilizer use rose fourfold in only 13 years, in Asia Strategies in international governance also affect nature
and the Pacific, and doubled in developing countries beyond countries’ borders. For instance, protected areas
{2.1.11, 2.1.15}. can block inefficient production in forest habitats in low
income tropical countries that are highly prized, shifting
35 Alien species increasingly are recorded across production to less prized locations elsewhere. On net,
continents, although less in Africa, given variable though, trade-based degradation has flowed toward those
rates of species ‘invasibility’ and monitoring capacity countries with lower income.
(established but incomplete). Current cumulative records
of alien species are ~40 times larger in developed than in 38 The trade-offs between economic growth and
least developed countries. Though comparable across degradation have shifted (well established). Even for
Europe and Central Asia, the Americas and Asia and the higher-income countries, earlier economic development
Pacific, they are ~4 times lower in Africa {2.1.12, 2.1.16}. during the last 50 years mostly occurred at the expense of
This has resulted from increased trade and population local nature. When trade and governance increased imports
61
of nature from low income countries, economic aid (perhaps 41 Social-ecological dynamics yield balances and
compensating global public goods as above) could provide regime shifts (established but incomplete). Interactions
those countries with local net benefits {2.1.2, 2.1.18}. In among drivers can generate iterative dynamics that raise
contrast, concentrating power in global supply chains outcomes variability {2.1.18}. Some systems equilibrate,
lowers economic returns in lower-income countries from e.g., if scarcities are perceived then prices and governance
appropriations of nature – sometimes with net local initiatives may rise as responses, then recede {2.1.18}.
environmental and economic costs. These interactions Other systemic interactions have led to rapid changes and
helped high income countries to protect their nature while extreme outcomes including ‘regime shifts’ for ecosystem
continuing to have economic growth {2.1.2, 2.1.18}, functions: marine hypoxic zones; species invasions; or
although the relative rates of growth, based on such desertification {2.1.18}. Some collapses have arisen in high
exchanges, depend on the bargaining power. income settings, as challenges for rulemaking and
enforcement confounded local regulations, despite
39 Economic and environmental inequality evolved, capacities. Some dysfunctions have resulted in conflicts, in
across income levels (well established). Globally, GDP and across societies, which extend dysfunction: e.g., food
per capita has increased relatively steadily over time {2.1.2}. shortages due to climate shifts, and unequal access, have
Increases have been unequal over space, however. Globally, generated ‘food riots’ {2.1.18}. Serious conflicts and societal
economic inequalities have steadily increased (note that shifts have arisen within mining, water, biodiversity, and land
within countries, the evolutions of inequalities have been − sometimes financed by resource extraction and
uneven, averaging out to little change). That in turn can shift exacerbating environmental degradation {2.1.18}.
bargaining power, yielding unequal divisions of the gains
from interactions, though dynamics can include 42 Dynamics include (nonlinear) recoveries to good
convergence, with more rapid GDP growth in emerging balances (established but incomplete). Systemic
economies (more generally, developing countries are interactions have led some settings towards a positive
intermediate between the developed and least developed ‘equilibrium’, with a reduction of degradation or a restoration
countries’ pathways). Inequalities within and among of nature {2.1.18}. For example: policies that affect a fishery
countries can make collective actions (coordination, stock by shifting some behaviours may ‘tip’ the setting into
cooperation) that are needed for conserving and restoring sustainable harvesting, in which individual actors shift into
nature’s contributions even harder to achieve {2.1.2, 2.1.18}. making choices consistent with stock preservation; or,
conservation sometimes spreads if one group observes
40 Social instabilities linked to scarcities in nature benefits to earlier adopters and, so, chooses to mimic their
are part of current and future threats to nature based actions. Further, individual nations’ participation in some
upon economic, social, and geopolitical conflicts global collective agreements has spread when payoffs from
(established but incomplete). Conflicts result from joining rise with the participation of other countries – so
interactions concerning availability and control over nature’s leadership matters {2.1.18}.
contributions {2.1.18}. More than 2,500 conflicts over fossil
fuels, water, food and land are currently occurring. Lower-
income countries that tend to be rich in natural resources
have experienced more conflict − exacerbating
environmental degradation, lowering GDP growth, and
raising migration {2.1.18}. Communities expelled from lands
or threatened by degradation (e.g., deforestation, mining or
the expansion of industrial logging) have been associated
with related violence (e.g., ~1,000 activists and journalists
killed during 2002 to 2013) {2.1.11, 2.1.18}. Armed conflicts
have direct physical impacts on ecosystems, beyond their
destabilizing effects on resource uses and productivity
{2.1.18}. The ecosystems relatively untouched by human
activities can be particularly vulnerable to intrusions of this
type, because remote ecosystems with few humans have
harbored illegal activities {2.1.11, 2.1.18}.
62
2.1.1 INTRODUCTION choices. We next consider ‘demographic’ (population,

migration, education) and then ‘technological’ (innovation)
factors. Next come the ‘economic’ factors: structural
The globe’s diverse citizens strive to achieve a good quality of transition, i.e., shifts across economic sectors such as
life, with diverse perspectives on what is needed to achieve agriculture, manufacturing, and services; concentrated
that, as a result of varied relationships with each other and production, i.e., shifts in output shares for big actors; and
with nature. Nature supports all these individual and collective trade as well as financial flows that continue to increase
pursuits, through contributions detailed in this volume (see within and across national borders.
chapter 2.3): provisioning or material contributions, such as
food and timber; regulating contributions, such as climate Finally, we consider ‘governance’, an overarching sub-category
regulation and protection of soils; and cultural and non- of indirect drivers that includes all types of governance.
material contributions, such as learning and inspiration. They respond to scarcities in nature’s capacity to generate
Meeting the individual and societal demands for nature contributions: scarcities increase the likelihoods of responses
has posed severe and heterogeneous challenges. Some although many other factors also determine them.
groups still do not have their basic needs met from nature’s
contributions yet increasing demands upon nature are Within governance, we distinguish different forms, while
exceeding rates at which contributions can be sustained emphasizing their many interactions. We start with efforts
(IPBES, 2018b, 2018e, 2018c, 2018d). At current trends, we by private actors within supply chains, e.g., the certification
risk drastic degradation, with drops in contributions critical for of production processes for environmentally beneficial
societies and uneven distributions of losses. features for which at least some consumers would pay.
Moving outside markets, we consider coordination at local
Basic needs and luxuries depend on nature, i.e., on land, levels within community governance. We then consider the
plants and animals, minerals, and water whose supplies governance by formal states, i.e. policies from local scale
depend upon myriad functions of ecosystems, such as to national scale, and their interaction with community
nutrient cycling and water purification. How nature is governance which can either enhance or worsen outcomes.
manipulated, including within markets, depends upon Finally, we consider coordination across governments –
socioeconomic factors: values, incomes, technologies and i.e., ‘global community governance’ – that must address
power (i.e., who determines which development ideas are challenges similar to those which face smaller-scale
implemented and how). Scarcities drive human responses, community governance.
including governance institutions, from norms to national
policies. Yet markets’ prices often fail to reflect scarcities in We then move to the direct drivers, i.e., direct human
nature, thus degradation remains invisible in local and global influences upon nature – in seven sections. The first section
economic systems, for rural and urban settings. Likewise, (2.1.11) covers human actions, e.g., farming, fishing,
individuals and society often fail to fully recognize and to logging, and mining, that respond to indirect drivers and
incorporate the value from nature’s contributions, despite their directly affect nature. Interventions often aim to shift such
immense importance for multiple dimensions of well-being. actions, based on theory and evidence about dominant
dynamics. Section 2.1.12 gives an overview of all the
For this global assessment of nature, and its contributions influences on nature from those actions for aggregate
to people, we are concerned with all of these pursuits. influences upon nature, which are detailed in the following
Every one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), sections These include land/seascape change (2.1.13),
for instance, is critical. Yet we focus on the consequences resource extraction (2.1.14), pollution (2.1.15), invasive alien
for nature from economic and social development species (2.1.16) and climate change (2.1.17). Both sections
trajectories, over the past 50 years, that centrally involve consider efforts to reduce degradation and recover nature,
interactions across local, national and global scales. Those i.e., restoration efforts and outcomes.
consequences, in turn, enable or constrain potential for
future development, sustainable or otherwise. Our focus Following chapter 1, our final section (2.1.18) “closes
in this chapter is on understanding the indirect and direct the loop”. Direct drivers feed processes in nature that, in
drivers affecting past and present, and influencing possible turn, feed into the process of co-production of all nature’s
trajectories for nature, and people, at different scales. contributions to people (NCP). In turn, NCP abundance
and scarcities affect the quality of life of everyone within
To broadly describe the interactions between society and a society and, thereby, spur shifts in indirect drivers such
nature that underpin trajectories within development, we as values, market prices and other institutions. Thus,
analyze the evolution of different categories of drivers that we can work through cases of drivers’ consequences
affect nature and its contributions to people. First, we coming around to shape drivers’ evolutions. We consider
cover indirect drivers, i.e., factors behind human choices the implications of such iterations for future (perhaps
that affect nature. This starts with values, as goals affect sustainable) development pathways.
63
Understanding development trajectories with individuals’ and societal choices. For instance, if one society
global interconnections. recovered certain capacities of nature after degrading them
(as is observed in various regions especially in the ‘Global
Intensified global interconnections have been a defining North’), how could that transition have occurred within
feature of the last 50 years. Any global perspective includes a world in which other societies did not choose or were
how regional, national, and subnational trajectories – for not able to reverse related negative trends within nature?
nature, economic development and governance − have Looking across 50 years, were the observed transitions
interacted at a global level. Figures below articulate how simply independent choices by heterogeneous societies to
as a consequence, the trajectories observed across the regulate more, or invest more in sustainability, or consume
last 50 years, while related to each other, have differed less? Or did recoveries rely upon degradation in other
considerably across space and time, e.g., as experienced countries? And, going forward, what are the implications of
by different groups of countries in terms of nature (Figure those interactions for trajectories?
2.1.1), economic growth, and environmental governance
(Figures 2.1.2-2.1.3). The figures aim to illustrate how least Next, we wish to consider whether multiple dynamics could
developed, developing, and developed countries followed generate each trajectory in Figure 2.1.1 because exactly
distinct but interconnected trajectories, given differing and how a country or region managed to stabilize or to improve
interacting bundles of indirect and direct drivers in and elements of nature affects not only the sustainability of those
across regions with cumulative and/or cascading effects changes but also the implied consequences for others. For
over time. In many cases, varied trajectories are present instance, some societies enjoyed greater initial endowments
in single countries. An example for forests, in Box 2.1.1, of particular natural resources − such as minerals, land,
illustrates how various interconnections of multiple drivers climate, and ecosystem productivity on many dimensions
across and within regions shaped forest landscapes. (Scheffer et al., 2017) − which in general could improve
those trajectories.
Observed historical trajectories for important elements of
nature can be summarized using a few possible steps: However, natural wealth alone has proven not to be
degradation to start, almost surely; then possibly also sufficient for ongoing positive trajectories, independent of
stabilization, and recovery (Figure 2.1.1). The trajectories society’s institutions and choices. In fact, many distinct
for different societies are not necessarily independent, evolutions of different bundles of indirect drivers could
however, and we explore how they could be the result of affect nature similarly − i.e., generate the same trajectories
interacting trajectories of indirect and direct drivers – due to in Figure 2.1.1 − yet differ greatly in trade, governance,
NATURE AND ITS CONTRIBUTIONS
3-Stabilization and recovery
2-Stabilization
1-Ongoing degradation
TIME (DECADES)
Figure 2 1 1 Illustrative trajectories along differing development pathways for ‘nature’, i.e.,
its productive stocks or its capacity to generate valued contributions, at the
time scale of decades.
The first trajectory is ongoing degradation, the second is stabilization after degradation, and the third is not only stabilization
but also a reversal or recovery. The vertical line is a point of transition, whose timing depends upon many factors, including
scarcities in nature.
64
Box 2 1 1 Multiple dynamics driving forest cover can underlie stabilization or recovery.
Forests provide examples for such dynamics (IPBES, 2018a). option which also aids biodiversity (Pagiola et al., 2016; Perfecto
Global forest cover has been close to stable in recent years, & Vandermeer, 2010). If adoption of any of the above alternatives
yet forest cover decreased in some regions while stabilizing or were to be universal, then forests might stabilize or even recover
even recovering in others. Existing theories about processes in all countries, while across-country inequality would depend
underlying such trajectories (Meyfroidt et al., 2018) propose upon biophysical and societal constraints on yield.
dynamics that have similar forest trajectories but differ on other
dimensions in Figure 2.1.2. Forest degradation often results Transition to manufacturing/services. A distinct dynamic
from agricultural expansion, for which there are many examples, is sectoral transition from agriculture to manufacturing and
including within the tropics, where that remains a significant services, within processes of both urban and industrial growth
phenomenon (Barlow et al., 2018; Curtis et al., 2018; Hansen – often along with rural depopulation and a spatial contraction
et al., 2013). This is common enough that it could explain initial of increasingly intensive agricultural production. This may raise
and continuing downward slopes within a version of Figure affluence and the demand for improving ecosystem health
2.1.1 for forest. and ensuing regulating and cultural contributions (e.g., Mather
& Needle, 1998; Rudel, 1998) that affect both governance
‘Forest transitions’ (Figure 2.1.1, Trajectory #2/#3) were and trade (see, e.g., Mather, 2007; Rudel et al., 2005; Viña et
observed in Western Europe and North America (Mather & al., 2016).
Needle, 1998; Rudel, 1998), then East and South Asia (Foster
& Rosenzweig, 2003; Kauppi et al., 2006), and parts of Latin Substitution by imports. Countries also have stabilized forest
America. Different dynamics underlying transitions have been cover by importing wood or food, grown at the expense of
highlighted in varied literatures (Caldas et al., 2007; Geist et al., forests elsewhere (Meyfroidt et al., 2010). In this dynamic,
2006; Gutman et al., 2004; Rindfuss et al., 2004). We consider recoveries rely on others’ degradation. Some countries follow
some below. Trajectory #1, as still occurs in the tropics. With increasing
global trade, sources of inequalities between countries include
Intensification. For a fixed area, outputs can rise via changing differences in who gained from these trades, given differences
knowledge and practices, inputs and tools to promote in power across firms and countries, including in abilities to
‘intensification’ − such as double cropping or higher-yield crop increase value in forest and agricultural products through
varieties (Thaler, 2017). Incorporating trees is an agropastoral transformation processes.
economic outputs, and various inequalities. Further, within between-country economic inequality rose – while falling
many of those dynamics, outcomes differ as a function of or rising in different countries – since scales of economic
countries’ development level (those additional dimensions activity differed. Output per unit of natural degradation also
plus broad differences across development levels motivate differed, as countries with higher income could combine
Figure 2.1.2). more physical, financial, educational and social capital with
their natural capital in production. They also could have had
Box 2.1.1 lists varied interconnections that shaped forest different past histories, e.g., longer periods of depending
landscapes, both illustrating Figure 2.1.1’s trajectories, and on nature beyond their borders, through colonization or
their interconnections at the global level, and illustrating that trade. Thus, many countries’ periods of early economic
there is a suite of different implications of the achievement development had similar impacts on nature but differed in
of Figure 2.1.1’s trajectories. In and beyond forest cover, economic trajectories, including in trade and in (relatively
these differing and interrelated possible trajectories for rare) governance of nature.
nature involve some countries being able to ‘transition’
from the degradation of nature to a stabilization or a Nonetheless, each trajectory involves particular trade-
recovery within their borders, while others incur the costs offs in meeting the society’s diverse needs, through
of degradation. In other settings, the stabilization or the both production and conservation. Yet, since countries’
recovery of nature in one country is not dependent on trajectories are not independent, given rising global
degradation elsewhere, so reversal is possible for all. interconnections, which mechanisms or settings facilitate or
drive transitions has significant implications for who reaps
Again, then, for forest cover, and beyond, the trajectories gains or bears the costs of degradation and recoveries.
of countries can be highly contrasting (motivating Figure Some possible inequalities in trade-offs between gains
2.1.2). In general, provisioning contributions from nature and losses in nature and economic output, looking both
raised gross domestic product (GDP), even in per capita within and across countries, are illustrated by contrasting
terms despite rising populations, during initial degradation trajectories in Figure 2.1.3.
of nature via transformations of ecosystems for agriculture
(i.e., to the left of Figure 2.1.2’s transition). Further,
65
A
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES OUTCOMES
GPD per Capita Imports of Nature

Self-Governance (embedded in
for Nature/NCP goods)
Within-Country
inequalty
(averaging across
all the countries)
Environmental
Quality Some of both
in forest
Renewable
Resources
Nonrenewable
Resources
TIMES OF TRANSITION STYLIZED TRAJECTORIES

(years differ by country) (years differ by country)
B
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES OUTCOMES
Governed by Others Exports of Nature

for Nature/NCP (embedded in
goods)
GPD per Capita Within-Country
inequalty
(averaging across
Environmental all the countries)
Quality
Renewable Some of both

Resources in forest
Nonrenewable
Resources
TIMES OF TRANSITION STYLIZED TRAJECTORIES

(years differ by country) (years differ by country)
Figure 2 1 2 Stylized sketches of average trajectories in developed countries outcomes A

and least developed countries outcomes B .
From bottom to top: quality of environment and natural resources (‘renewable’ like fish or trees, which regrow, or ‘non-
renewable’ like oil or ores); institutional features of economies (i.e., trade) and societies (i.e., governance); gross domestic
product (GDP) per capita; and inequality in GDP per capita. This figure builds upon Figure 2 .1 .1, with vertical lines indicating
times for transitions that, in reality, happen at different times in different countries.
Consider, for instance, the degradation of nature as well further, even to lower total ‘environmental footprint’ (e.g.,
as the other outcomes from expansion and intensification abandon activities and reforest); which can produce the
dynamics of economic activities. Regulations can limit the Self-Governing trajectory: recovery for nature, slower GDP
areas affected by those activities (e.g., agriculture), and a growth (Figure 2.1.3). Whether all this occurs depends on
country also can invest to raise its outputs per unit area and, whether the society places a sufficiently high value on forest.
66
MORE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Import Nature GDP starts higher and rises faster
Nature Governance on own terms
Self-Governing
GPD PER CAPITA
Export Nature
(higher prices)
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

GDP starts lower and rises slower
Nature Governance from outside
Globally Governed
Export Nature
(lower prices)
NATURE DEGRADATION
Figure 2 1 3 Stylized sketches of cross-country interactions in trajectories for material

contributions of nature.
y-axis = GDP per capita and capacity for future material, regulating and non-material contributions, x-axis = nature.
Imports and exports of nature are embodied in goods, e.g., water in food or trees in timber decrease for exporters and
increase for importers. As in Figures 2.1.1 and 2.1.2, a vertical line indicates a point of possible societal transitions.
Instead, developed countries may conserve nature (e.g.,

forest cover) by importing forest and agricultural goods
2.1.2 PAST TRAJECTORIES,
from least developed countries, albeit at the expense of THEIR TRADE-OFFS AND
nature for the exporters. For importers, an ‘Import Nature’
trajectory may be better than meeting needs by self-
INEQUALITIES
governing, though whether this occurs depends on whether
exporters put a sufficiently low value on forests. The trade-
2.1.2.1 Maintain nature or meet
offs depend on export prices, as illustrated in two Export
Nature trajectories (Figure 2.1.3).
society’s many and diverse short-
run goals?
Alternatively, developed countries may advocate – and
cover the costs of – nature governance in least developed Compared with pre-1980 realities, the world has changed
countries such as strict protected areas that make some rapidly (Figure 2.1.4). Population, urban areas and
local uses of forest illegal. That may provide global public international migration have risen greatly. Overall, quality of
goods − yet sometimes by imposing net costs on the local life has improved, in the senses of, e.g., lower child mortality,
actors. A rise in nature could raise welfare for developed or higher caloric intake, and varied summaries such as
countries, yet lower GDP for least developed countries, the Human Development Index. Economic development
if the latter cannot shift into other activities that support generally has advanced, in terms of per capita GDP and
economies (Globally Governed trajectory). This motivates a per capita consumption, while the value of merchandise
quest for actions to help nature and local economies. For being exported has also increased. Yet, these improvements
instance, forests might also increase if enforced protected have come at a real cost: increasing impact upon nature.
areas flanked new railway links that facilitated urban growth. Since 1980, food production systems have intensified and,
although the overall areas covered by cities and agriculture
have not drastically increased, more fertilizer and pesticides
are being used while total pollution (including greenhouse
gas emissions), the number of invasive alien species, and
temperature anomalies are increasing, and biodiversity
intactness is decreasing (see chapter 2.2 for more on
this variable) – despite increasing efforts to protect key
67
A B C
D E F
G H I
J K L
Figure 2 1 4 Trends in indirect drivers for countries with different development levels.
The data shown are trends, per country, averaged ( A , B , C , D , E , F , H , I , and K ) or totaled ( G , J ) for each of the
three UN development categories: developed, developing, and least developed. Panels shown are: A Child mortality rate:
Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births); B Human Development Index: a summary measure of average achievement in
key dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, being knowledgeable and have a decent standard of living;
C Calorie intake: Kilocalories consumed per person per day; D GDP per capita (gross domestic product divided by
midyear population) in constant 2010 U.S. dollars; E Globalization index: The KOF Globalization Index measures the
68
economic, social and political dimensions of globalization; F Domestic material consumption per capita: all materials
used by the economy, either extracted from the domestic territory or imported from other countries; G Merchandise
exports: value of goods provided to the rest of the world per country valued in current U.S. dollars; H Total population;
I Proportion of urban population: Proportion of the total population that is urban, which refers to people living in urban
areas; J International Migrant Stock: the number of people born in a country other than that in which they live (includes
refugees); K Absence of conflict as an indicator of political stability: Index that measures perceptions of the likelihood
that the government will be destabilized or overthrown by unconstitutional or violent means, including politically-motivated
violence as well as terrorism; L Protection of key biodiversity areas (KBA): measures progress towards protecting the
most important sites for biodiversity in % of such sites per country (including Alliance for Zero Extinction sites ).
Sources: BirdLife International (2018); FAO (2016a); KOF Swiss Economic Institute (2018); UNDP (2016b); UNEP-WCMC &
IUCN (2018); World Bank (2018l, 2018i, 2018q, 2018k, 2018n); WU & Dittrich (2014).
biodiversity areas (KBAs). These global patterns will be increasing but remains low within least developed countries.
described in detail in each of the sections of this chapter. Currently, despite average gains over time at the global level,
close to 860 million people still suffer severe food insecurity
The trends differ widely, though, across countries, global across the globe, of which 48% are in Africa (particularly in sub-
regions, and regions within countries. To highlight some Saharan Africa) and 45% in Latin America (Figure S3) (WFP,
differences, we use a typology that divides all countries into 2017). Conflicts, refugee crises, droughts, floods, pandemics,
three development level categories (Figure 2.1.4): developed, and inadequate social institutions all have contributed to
developing, and least developed, based on Gross Domestic shortfalls both in aggregate food production, or food availability,
Product (GDP)1. We also use the four World Bank categories and in the effective food supply, with 37 countries (28 in Africa)
of income: lower, lower-middle, upper-middle and high having received emergency food aid in 2016 (WFP, 2017).
income (World Bank, 2018r), that can be aggregated (lower-
middle and upper-middle into middle) or disaggregated (high In addition, while the child mortality rate – largely associated
income OECD and high income oil and high income other) with a lack of water sanitation and food deficiencies – has
as needed (Figure S2). Additionally, we refer to the IPBES decreased overall, this threat remains prevalent in low
regions (Figure S2): Africa, Americas, Europe and Central income countries, in which as many as 10% of the children
Asia, Asia and the Pacific (see Supplementary Materials: Table born alive die before age 5 (World Bank, 2018l). Regionally,
2 for a comparison of typologies). Africa and the Americas show highest mortality (Figure S3).
While access to improved water resources has increased, on
average, 40% of the world’s population still is lacking access
2.1.2.2 Inequalities to safe drinking water, most of them in least developed
countries, especially within sub-Saharan Africa (WHO &
2.1.2.2.1 Poverty and inequalities with UNICEF, 2017). Furthermore, almost all maternal deaths
respect to basic needs during childbirth (99%) occur in developing countries, over
half in sub-Saharan Africa (Wang et al., 2011), as a result of
There have been some marked advances in terms of water scarcity, poor management, and governance failures.
poverty reduction over the past few decades (Figure S5),
though many people around the world still remain in poverty. In terms of broader measures of well-being, the Human
Per the “international poverty line” established by the World Development Index (HDI) that includes income, health
Bank in 2008, equivalent to a daily income below $1.90 US (life expectancy at birth), and education (average number
dollars/person (in 2015 prices) (Ravallion et al., 2008), of years of schooling) (UN, 2016a) also illustrates great
~1.2 billion people still live in poverty (UN, 2016a). According contrasts across the planet. Least developed and
to the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), introduced developing countries have much lower HDI values than do
in 2010 in the Human Development Report (UNDP) using the developed countries (Figure 2.1.4; UNDP, 2016a). Africa
metrics for health, education, and standard of living, still has the lowest HDI values among IPBES regions, followed
~1.5 billion people are living in extreme poverty. by Asia (Figure S3). Across regions, Indigenous Peoples and
Local Communities (IPLCs) are among the poorest groups,
Further, even while overall income has risen on average to by income but also in access to basic needs, services, and
above the international poverty line, clearly many other basic opportunities (Hall & Patrinos, 2012).
needs have not been met, despite significant global stresses
on nature. Globally, food security (i.e., security in food supply, Countries differ in many other well-being metrics too
with elimination of caloric and nutritional deficiencies) has been (Figure 2.1.4, Figure S4), such as material conditions for
life – frequently assessed from an economic perspective
1. https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_
with economic indicators (see section 2.1.3). Higher-income
current/2014wesp_country_classification.pdf countries rank higher for indicators associated with societal
69
development and for sustainability (Figure S4) (Eira et al., “Green Revolution” boosted agricultural yields through
2013; Inuit Circumpolar Council, 2015; Raymond-Yakoubian the application of fertilizers, pesticides, fungicides and
& Angnaboogok, 2017), including for various indicators of herbicides, together with irrigation, all of which increased
the options citizens have, also called ‘freedoms’, that are energy demands (Dzioubinski & Chipman, 1999). Total
included in the World Happiness Index (WHI, 2017) (Figure energy use has doubled in the last 40 years (World
S4). These countries also have better conditions than Bank, 2018g) (Figure S6), while substantial transitions to
low income countries for access, equality, tolerance, and modern gridded clean fuels occurred between 1990 and
inclusion of minorities, as shown by the Social Progress 2010 (Pachauri et al., 2012), allowing ~1.7 billion people
Index (SPI, 2017) (Figure S4). With respect to metrics for access to electricity and about ~1.6 billion people access
the management of ecosystem services and environmental to non-solid fuels for household cooking. The greatest
policies such as Environmental Performance Index (EPI, increases have occurred in middle income countries, while
2018), low income countries rank lower. Yet they rank low income countries exhibited lower increases (Figure
higher in terms of indicators for diversity, environmental S6; World Bank, 2018a) with real variations in rates of
degradation, and ecological footprint, including consumption technological development and in the initial endowments of
of renewable water resources. Low income countries exhibit energy resources (Burke, 2010; Toman & Jemelkova, 2017).
higher rankings in the Environmental Component of the For instance, high income non-oil-producing countries
Social Sustainability Index (SSI.EV; Figure S4) which includes have been gradually reducing their use of fossil fuels and
linguistic diversity (Maffi, 2005), cultural identity, and the increasing the use of nuclear and other non-fossil-fuel
retention over time of indigenous ecological knowledge as sources (Figure S7). Among the highest energy consumers,
well as practices (Sterling et al., 2017). in total as well as per capita, are high income countries
where intensive agriculture is more prevalent (Figure S9).
2.1.2.2.2 Inequalities in Income
Global patterns of food consumption have also changed
Economic inequality across all countries has been rising over the past fifty years, with important differences by
since 1820 (Bourguignon & Morrisson, 2002; World Bank, country (Figure S6). As nations urbanize, urban dwellers
2018r), and also has escalated since 1980 (Figure 2.1.4; get wealthier, food supplies increase, and eating habits
Figure S2; Figure S3; Figure S5; World Bank, 2018o), with change. Diets are rising in refined carbohydrates, added
the highest-income countries increasing their incomes faster sugars, fats, and animal-based foods (e.g., meats, dairy) but
(OECD, 2015). In 2017, the GDP per capita was nearly four falling in pulses, vegetables, coarse grains, fruits, complex
times higher in developed than in developing countries and carbohydrates and fiber, in tandem with the diversity of
nearly 34 times higher than in least developed countries food sources (Keats & Wiggins, 2014; Khoury et al., 2014;
(Figure 2.1.4; World Bank, 2018i). In terms of growth, GDP Popkin et al., 2012; Tilman & Clark, 2014). Again, the
per capita is rising fastest for developed and developing variations across regions are significant. From 1970 to
countries, but slower in least developed countries, making 2015, global average caloric intake per capita rose by 15%
the gap among these particular groups larger every year. − yet developed countries have the highest levels (Figure
2.1.4), particularly in Europe (Figure S3), while the lowest
Within-country inequality also shifted over time in many levels are found in least developed countries (Figure 2.1.4),
countries. However, the changes went in both positive particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (Figure S3). Likewise, by
and negative directions, and so on average, within- 2009 while the average per capita consumption of protein
country inequality remained fairly constant (Bourguignon exceeded the average estimated daily requirements in all
& Morrisson, 2002; World Bank, 2018o). Still, quite a the regions of the globe, it is the highest in high income
few countries experienced rising within-country income countries (FAO, 2011b, 2016a; Paul, 1989; Walpole et
inequality, as expressed by metrics such as the Gini al., 2012).
coefficient (Figure S5) or the Palma ratio (Palma, 2006), with
cases in which lower incomes fell while higher incomes rose With those changes in diet, the number of obese and
− particularly in the Americas and Africa. overweight people has grown (Figure S6), to 2.1 billion in
2013 (Ng et al., 2014). This too differs by region, with six
2.1.2.2.3 Lifestyles and Inequalities in times more obese people in high income than low income
countries today (Figure S6). Furthermore, there are large
Consumption
variations across regions in the amount of fats (e.g., fats
Consumption too has been escalating, across the last in foods and oils) for human consumption. The lowest
few decades, albeit with differences among countries and quantities consumed are in Africa, while the highest are in
global regions. Energy consumption has been rising since parts of North America and Europe. Both the quantities
the industrial revolution. Wood and oil from whales were and qualities (animal-based versus vegetable oils) of fats
replaced in the early 1900s by coal, petroleum and natural are key features of the nutritional transitions in national diets
gas (Smil, 2004). By the middle of the 20th Century, the (Ranganathan et al., 2016). Fast-food options are rising in
70
low income countries, as exemplified by the higher numbers All of this has impacts upon ecosystems. Estimates of
of chain restaurants (e.g., McDonald’s restaurants2). ecological footprints, based on demands for both material
and regulating contributions to people from nature, suggest
New ‘needs’ have also emerged with economic sustained increases of footprints that are beyond the
development. For instance, after mobile phones first biological capacity to supply them (Borucke et al., 2013;
became accessible, their number quickly “exploded” to one Galli et al., 2016, 2014; Lazarus et al., 2015; Lin et al.,
for every five people in the world (Figure S6). In addition 2015; Wackernagel et al., 2014). This is especially true for
to providing useful services, phones cause important the developing countries that are growing fastest in people,
environmental impacts associated with mining of precious per capita demand, and globalization (Figure 2.1.4).
metals for components and with both the manufacture of
electronics and their careless disposal (Babu et al., 2007; Critically, environmental footprints of country consumption
Fehske et al., 2011; Wanger, 2011; Widmer et al., 2005). increasingly stretch beyond borders (as discussed in the
introduction, see Figures 2.1.2 and 2.1.3). The world
2.1.2.2.4 Inequalities in Environmental is ever more global, in economic, social, and political
terms (Figure S1). Globalization metrics are highest for
Footprints
developed countries and lowest for least developed
With changes in lifestyle, per capita demand for natural countries (Figure 2.1.4). Such indices of increased
resources has increased – unevenly (Figure 2.1.4, Figure resource flows include a 12-fold rise in the value of exports
S1). For instance, domestic material consumption (DMC) from 1970 to 2017, with fastest increases in developing
− the total amount of material directly used in an economy, countries (20-fold), followed by least developed ones (15-
including domestic extraction and imports (Wiedmann et al., fold) (Figure 2.1.4). Footprints associated with exports can
2015; WU, 2017) varies greatly. DMC per capita is ~5 times be larger than is indicated by these trade values, though,
larger in high income countries than low income. As DMC because the usage of resources is, on average, larger than
per capita rose by 15% globally since 1980 (18% since physical quantities of traded goods (Wiedmann et al., 2015).
1970), the largest increases are in developing countries
(73% since 1970), followed by least developed (18% since 2.1.2.2.5 Inequalities in Social,
1970; Figure 2.1.4). By IPBES region, since 1980, DMC
Environmental, and Historical Constraints
rose most in Asia and the Pacific (20%), followed by Africa
(18%), and rose least in Europe and Central Asia (7%) Differences in current conditions and trends among
(Figure S3). countries are associated partly with different natural
endowments. High income OECD countries and upper-
Such demands upon nature scale with both the total middle income countries have the largest fractions of
population and demand per person. As such, since 1970, renewable freshwater resources and agricultural lands, for
global material consumption has risen over 1.4 times faster instance, while oil-producing high income countries have
than has total population (Figure 2.1.4, Figure S1). With the smallest such fractions (Figure S7), although the largest
every 10% increase in GDP, the average material footprint of for nonrenewable resources (e.g., petroleum, natural gas).
nations – raw material extraction in the final demand of an Forest cover is similar for countries with rather different
economy – has risen by 6% (Wiedmann et al., 2015; WU, income levels, except for oil-producing countries that have
2017). Once again, growth rates for absolute and for per little (S7). Globally, natural assets represent about one
capita material consumption are unequal. For example, from tenth of total wealth, with produced capital three times and
1980 to 2008 they increased in all regions except Central Asia human capital six times as large. Yet for some countries with
(due to the collapse of the former Soviet Union) and most lower income levels, the natural capital constitutes most of
rapidly in Northeast Asia (Wiedmann et al., 2015; WU, 2017). their wealth (World Bank, 2018o). The contribution of natural
The global amount of material extraction was approximately capital to total wealth for high income countries is relatively
70 billion tons in 2008 (Wiedmann et al., 2015; WU, 2017). small, roughly half the magnitude of the shares for low
Asia has the highest material extraction of all the regions, income countries (Lange et al., 2018a). Thus, degradation of
while 2008’s per capita consumption in North America was nature should have the strongest detrimental impacts on low
ten times higher, at 30 to 35 tons of raw materials, than in income countries’ future economic development.
Central Africa (Figure S18). Total material extraction (living and
nonliving) in developing countries is rising the fastest, due to Beyond the roles natural conditions play in divergent
rapid increases in total population and GDP and DMC per development pathways among countries – which are
capita (Figure 2.1.12, Figure S17, Figure S18, Figure S25). debated (Diamond, 1997; Gallup et al., 1999) − countries
also differ in institutions, e.g., in governance, culture,
religion, philosophies, and past development. The colonial
2. https://stage-corporate.mcdonalds.com/content/dam/gwscorp/
investor-relations-content/supplemental-information/2016%20
period was characterized by natural resource flows
Restaurants%20by%20Country.pdf from the South to the North that often were linked with
71
ecological damage and social oppression (Goeminne

& Paredis, 2010; Nagendra, 2018). As a result, tropical
2.1.3 INDIRECT DRIVERS:
civilizations whose total wealth was closer to their European VALUES
counterparts in the precolonial era are now far poorer
(Acemoglu et al., 2005). Patterns of poverty in the tropics
2.1.3.1 Different social groups
have been linked to a variety of institutions, such as some
arrangements that enable inclusive economic growth that
hold different values
lowers poverty (Acemoglu et al., 2001; Easterly & Levine, The different values people hold concerning nature, nature’s
2003; Rodrik et al., 2004). The current patterns of poverty contributions to people, and their relationship to the quality
and the environmental conditions in the Americas, Asia of life affect people’s attitudes toward nature and, thus, the
and the Pacific, and Africa are still strongly influenced by policies, norms, and technologies which modulate people’s
the pervasive experience of past colonialism (16th to 19th interactions with nature. Values encompass principles or
centuries). Its continuing influences upon resource flows and moral judgments that can lead to responsibility concerning,
trade arrangements contribute to persistent social inequality and stewardship towards, nature. They also encompass
as well as weak governance institutions which perpetuate varied views about the importance or significance of
inequalities (IPBES, 2018b). something or a particular course of action. For instance,
as highlighted within ‘the water-diamond paradox’, even
For instance, most economic growth in the last 50 years though water is necessary for life, while diamonds clearly
occurred in countries not experiencing civil conflict and are not at all, the market prices for diamonds usually are
with strong state institutions. Additionally, 70% of today’s far higher due to (at times intentional) market scarcities
poor live in “fragile states” with cycles of violence, weak (Chan et al., 2016; IPBES, 2015; Pascual et al., 2017a; see
institutions, inequality, and low growth. All are obstacles chapter 1).
to overcoming poverty (Sachs, 2005; Smith, 2007; World
Bank, 2015a). Developed countries are more politically Values concerning nature can be relational, instrumental
stable (Figure 2.1.4), e.g., with European countries more or intrinsic (chapter 1). Individuals and social groups who
stable than African (Figure S3). hold in high regard their relationships with nature often
hold moral principles for living in harmony with nature.
All these inequalities have important societal and Such relational values are central for Indigenous cultures
environmental consequences – for instance, differential in many parts of the world. This is the case, for instance,
conservation practices, depending on governance contexts. of the Eeyouch of the Eastern Subarctic in Canada, who
Inequality is associated with less protected land for relatively traditionally view humans, other animals, plants, some
democratic countries, yet the reverse is true for relatively aspects of the natural world, and spiritual beings as all
undemocratic countries (Kashwan, 2017). Some suggest having conscious agency in a world that is dependent on
nonlinear linkages between inequality and both economic relationships and on an ethic of mutual respect (Berkes,
and environmental outcomes (Dorling, 2010, 2012; Holland 2012; Descola, 2013; Motte-Florac et al., 2012; Pascual et
et al., 2009; Mikkelson et al., 2007). Equality has generally al., 2017a). Also, some groups in the Tibetan plateau hold
facilitated collective efforts to protect natural resources that intangible and mythical creatures or deities inhabit
under common and public ownership or control (Baland & soils, water, air, rocks and mountains, and have different
Platteau, 1999, 2007; Bromley & Feeny, 1992; Colchester, qualities and identities with whom humans need to find a
1994; Dayton-Johnson & Bardhan, 2002; Itaya et al., 1997; balanced mode of interaction (Dorje, 2011). Aymara and
Ostrom, 2015; Ostrom et al., 1999; Scruggs, 1998; Templet, Quechua communities in the Andes, as groups elsewhere
1995). Inequality may yield social and environmental using this or other terms, conceptualize Mother Earth
vulnerabilities, including through the distribution of risk (Bolin as a self-regulatory organism representing the totality of
& Kurtz, 2018). Inequality may also lead to conflict and, if time and space and integrating the many relationships
both become self-sustaining by limiting opportunities and among all the living beings. Such conceptualization is
mobility − yielding hopelessness and a lack of a vision – used by many Indigenous organizations to re-establish
that can fundamentally undermine the motivation to invest cultural links to ancestral practices and to contest forms
in nature for sustainability (Stiglitz, 2013; Wilkinson & of environmental degradation that are imposed on them
Pickett, 2010). (Medina, 2006, 2010; Ogutu, 1992; Posey, 1999; Rist,
2002). Relational views such as these examples support
approaches to governance that reaffirm important points
of interconnection and virtues (e.g., respect, humility,
gratitude) and often lead to self-imposed restrictions on
use of nature (Mosha, 1999; Spiller et al., 2011; Verbos &
Humphries, 2014).
72
Instrumental values, in contrast, reflect the importance of satisfaction of protecting nature for future generations, for
an entity in terms of its contribution to an end, or its utility. instance, involving a principle of intergenerational equity.
Entities can provide instrumental value for consumptive (e.g., Insurance values pertain to resilience, in the face of change,
use of water, energy, biomass, food) and nonconsumptive while option values facing uncertainty focus on retaining
(e.g., nutrient cycling) uses. Utilitarian paradigms viewing the potential to access nature’s benefits in future (Gómez-
nature as a resource for economic development have Baggethun et al., 2014).
intensified over the last centuries, especially in industrialized
regions. In this anthropocentric, materialist worldview nature Access to food, water, shelter, health, education, good
is seen as a pool of material goods and energies to be social relationships, livelihoods, security, equality, identity,
mastered and employed (Merchant, 1980; Nash, 1989; prosperity, spirituality, as well as freedoms of choice,
Pepper, 1996; Plumwood, 1991), supporting the extraction action and participation, are valued in different ways by
of biodiversity and resources (Dietz & Engels, 2017) people in a society and across different societies (Díaz
and both substitutability and discounting perspectives. et al., 2015). Some of these values may be expressed
Substitutability implies that ecosystems or their functions through the use of a standard of exchange used by a
could be lost as long as their contributions to quality of life community, such as money. Monetary value is considered
are provided in other ways (Traeger, 2011). Discounting a proxy for how people may perceive the worth of an
gives less importance in decisions to future benefits or costs entity. Multiple considerations influence the estimation of
(Dobson, 1999; Padilla, 2002) – following the assumption an entity’s monetary value – or the amount that people
that future generations will be better off (much as current are willing to pay – which complicates the identification of
generations are better off than the past (above)). its full significance. Due to the diverse ways of conceiving
and experiencing the relationships between humans
In practice, values can be simultaneously instrumental and and the rest of nature, people also often value nature
relational. Many Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities and nature’s contributions to people, including many
in varied rural settings, for instance – indeed across the ecosystem services, in ways that are incompatible with the
IPBES regions – relate to nature with deep respect not only reasoning in monetary exchanges (Pascual et al., 2017b;
due to their conceptualizations of key relational values but UNEP, 2015).
also because their livelihoods depend upon the food and
other materials that nature provides.
2.1.3.2 Values of nature are
Intrinsic values are an inherent property of the entity (e.g., rapidly changing
an organism), not ascribed by external valuing agents
(such as human beings). Because of this independence The values at the core of individual and social priorities
from humans’ experiences, intrinsic values are beyond the and behaviours also can evolve over time, informed by
scope of anthropocentric valuation approaches (Díaz et al., awareness, experience, culture and society. Pressures
2015). Intrinsic values can be particularly relevant in nature associated with globalization, climate change, and
for non-human and even nonliving entities (Krebs, 1999). population migration over the last century have been
In the face of environmental degradation, environmental catalysts for social and cultural changes – including changes
movements in the 1970s advocated for the intrinsic in the human perceptions of and relationships with nature.
value of natural entities (Hay, 2002), regardless of their While urbanization may separate people from nature, there
usefulness to humans. These included sentient animals is a trend towards greater awareness of the importance of
(Singer, 1975), all living beings (Taylor, 1981) or ecosystems nature to human well-being in the scientific community and
with living and nonliving components (Devall & Sessions, across society.
1985). Intrinsic values have been presented as a basis for
laws and regulations or other governance to implement Long-standing values held by communities with strong
conservation agendas that minimize humans’ interactions ties to the land are increasingly disrupted, however, by
with nature (Purser & Park, 1995) while ensuring the well- economic globalization (Beng-Huat, 1998; Brosi et al., 2007;
being of future human generations by maintaining nature’s Jameson & Miyoshi, 1998). Varied global influences can
contributions to people (Mace, 2014). Some argue that the challenge local practices, including in the implementation
intrinsic value of non-human entities and its implications for of conservation. Local conceptualizations of conservation
biodiversity conservation could be considered as part of a may differ from external conservation paradigms (Miura,
wide instrumental perspective (Justus et al., 2009; Maguire 2005), although perhaps even more from consumptive
& Justus, 2008). views on exploiting remote ecosystems. Changes in values
and lifestyle include the abandonment of indigenous and
Nature is also valued today for its contributions into local knowledge, and traditional practices (Halmy, 2016),
the future (Faith, 2016; UNEP, 2015), from a number the erosion of traditional knowledge (Youn, 2009), and
of perspectives. Bequest values consider present-day changes in institutions and community organizations (Mburu
73
& Kaguna, 2016; Ole Kaunga, 2017), as documented by 2015), in the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD, 2014)
IPBES assessments (IPBES, 2018b). and in the United Nations Environment Assembly of the
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEA, 2014).
Migration, domestic and international, can disrupt
relationships between communities and lands if arriving More generally, Indigenous groups are actively trying to
attitudes are not adapted to local socioecological protect their rights while strengthening the recognition of
conditions. Migration (resulting from conflict, lack of the legitimacy of their relational worldviews and related
livelihood, urbanization, industrialization of agriculture, and governance practices in the face of economic, political,
changes in climate, among other reasons) can lead to local social and environmental pressures (Baer, 2014; Blaser et
and also global losses of local environmental knowledge, al., 2004). For instance, viewing nature as part of social
governance and management practices that sustained local life, not property to exploit, is suggested by the inclusion
livelihoods (Merino, 2012; Robson & Lichtenstein, 2013). of intrinsic rights of the natural world in the constitutions of
Significant numbers of people changing locations has Bolivia and Ecuador (Lalander, 2015). Yet placing the rights
driven changes in the worldviews, values, and practices of of nature on par with those of Indigenous communities
populations that migrate as well as those that receive them. may support or undermine indigenous control and raise
questions about how rights are linked with responsibilities.
Climate change itself can also lead to changes in practices In Bolivia, for instance, rights of nature have been given
and the values associated with them (beyond effects equal standing to the rights of ethnic groups, while in New
through migration). For instance, both farmers and Zealand, some native (Māori) communities have successfully
fishermen have been forced to shift daily and seasonal fought to gain political and legal power over land-use
practices that affect not only their livelihood outcomes planning (Menzies & Ruru, 2011) in ways that lead to new
but also their long-standing senses of place, community laws that recognize the spiritual connection of an Iwi (tribe)
structure, and cultural tradition (Breslow et al., 2014). to their ancestral place and the legal personality of national
parks and rivers (Salmond, 2014).
A new ethic regarding nature has been called ‘environmental
activism’ to explicitly challenge the dominance of the Views of what constitutes a good quality of life are
instrumental values (Callicott, 1989; Dunlap & Van Liere, also changing. A vision welfare based upon economic
1978; Guthrie, 1971; Leach et al., 1999; Leopold, 2014; development and material well-being prevailed in
Levins et al., 1998; Meadows et al., 1972; Naess, 1973). academic literature until the 1980s (Agarwala et al., 2014),
Recent examples include Pope Francis’ encyclical address yet concepts of well-being have integrated additional
(2015), reassessing Christianity’s vision of humanity’s relation dimensions and focused more on experiences of people
with Earth (Buck, 2016; Marshall, 2009). Relational values (Gasper, 2004; King et al., 2014; McGregor et al., 2015)
also enter into conservation dialogues (Chan et al., 2016; and include their capacities and connections with nature
Mace, 2014). More holistic approaches to sustainable (Sterling et al., 2017), together with education and health,
use of nature by humans inspired in part from indigenous knowledge and skills, happiness and satisfaction. Equity,
worldviews are stated in international agendas, e.g., living in justice, security and resilience lenses are also increasingly
harmony with nature is a principle of the Rio 1992 “Summit being integrated in definitions of well-being, alongside
of the Earth” (Mebratu, 1998; UN, 1992) and Rio 2012 the recognition of different types of knowledge about life
Conference on Sustainable Development (UN, 2012) and and cultural identities (Sterling et al., 2017). Evolutions of
the vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity up to values can have important consequences for nature and
2050. An International Day of Mother Earth is recognized in its contributions, modifying not only material consumption
the Rio+20 “The future we want” document, linked to rights patterns and but also governance.
of nature (UN, 2009, 2012). Recognition of Mother Earth
appears in recent climate change agreements (UNFCCC,
74
2.1.4 INDIRECT DRIVERS: – especially for young people – within the rapidly growing
urban areas of the developing world.
DEMOGRAPHIC
2.1.4.1 Population dynamics 2.1.4.2 Migration
The world’s population has doubled over the last 50 years The amount of people who migrate to a new country has
(Figure 2.1.4; Figure S1), and is still growing, although the more than tripled in the last five decades (Figure 2.1.4),
growth rate has peaked (Roser et al., 2017). There are over with about 240 million people living today within a country
7 billion humans today (PRB, 2014). Important reductions in where they were not born. The number of international
growth rates have been observed in developed countries, immigrants currently is largest for developed countries
while the fastest increases are in the least developed (Figure 2.1.4), as well as for Europe and Central Asia
countries (Figure 2.1.4), and in Asia and the Pacific (Figure (Figure S3). The number is increasing fastest, however,
S3). These differences in growth rates are consistent within developing countries (Figure 2.1.4), and also in
with a ‘demographic transition’: population growth rates Europe and Central Asia (Figure S3), where the number of
increase as child mortality decreases, leading to increased migrants has increased fourfold between 1980 to 2010, in
life expectancy; then fertility and growth decrease, leading both regions.
to falling population growth rates, as has already been
observed within some regions (Fogel, 1986; Hirschman, International and within-nation migration has multiple
1994; Thompson, 2003). The demographic transition drivers (Arango, 2017). Large contrasts in political stability,
occurred over centuries in Europe but more quickly in some satisfied basic needs, and larger incomes are among some
developing countries over the last few decades in a context of these key drivers, particularly within the Middle East,
of poverty and overexploited natural resources. South America and Asia. Migration may also be triggered
by environmental conditions, with estimates of several
Demographic patterns have been linked with urbanization million ‘environmental migrants’ today and with orders of
and with improvements in women’s education, rights, magnitude increases in that group expected in the future
and health that tend to reduce child mortality and to (Laczko & Aghazarm, 2009).
improve family planning (Caldwell, 2006; Galor, 2012).
Developed countries have lower growth rates than Scarcities of resources (Hunter, 2005; Hunter et al., 2005)
developing countries. While convergence is expected, and unfavourable conditions (Hunter, 2005) can shift
large differences may still remain for at least one century as populations (Lee, 1966; Todaro, 1969). Such degradation
some countries, mainly in Africa, may maintain high growth can interact with extreme events, such as those which
rates if current slow decreases in fertility continue (Clarke caused the severe dust storms that occurred in American
& Low, 2001; UN, 2004). Further, different ‘demographic and Canadian prairies during the 1930s (Cook et al.,
transitions’ have been suggested, relating to shifts in 2009), leading to the suggestion that migration could be
partnership formation (cohabiting instead of marriage), one adaptive strategy for households facing environmental
values associated with childbearing decisions (ethics, pressure. Rising temperatures have increased internal
politics, sex relations, education), and the postponement of migration strategies in Brazil, Uruguay and South Africa
parenthood. Their environmental impacts bear exploration (Mastrorillo et al., 2016; Thiede et al., 2016). Periods of low
(Lesthaeghe, 2014). rainfall drove both internal and international migration in
rural Mexico, particularly from municipalities with rain-fed
The world’s population is aging, with consequences for agriculture (Leyk et al., 2017). Crop failures driven by low
resource consumption and management. The number rainfall also have fueled migration in Bangladesh (Gray &
of seniors – 60 years and above – is growing fast, while Mueller, 2012b).
those above 80 are increasing even faster (McNicoll,
2002). Seniors are growing faster in urban than rural areas Complex social-ecological interactions also underpin
(McNicoll, 2002). Aging in rural areas has implications for migration across different contexts (Black et al., 2011).
the composition of rural labor forces and thus agricultural Villages and families with more resources (e.g., higher
production patterns, land tenure, social organization in rural agricultural production) are more likely to engage in costly
communities, and rural socioeconomic development. Such long-distance migration, as observed in rural Ecuador (Gray,
shifts over several decades in developed countries are now 2009a, 2010), and northeastern South Africa (Hunter et al.,
taking place in developing and least developed countries, 2014). The role of gender is context-dependent (Gray &
challenging generational replacement that has been central Mueller, 2012b), with: women’s marriage-related migration
for governance, environmental protection and sustainable falling by half during a recent drought in Ethiopia (Gray &
use in rural areas. Shifts also highlight poor environmental Mueller, 2012a); while rural-urban migration increased due
quality, plus limited access to employment and services to deforestation in Ghana’s central region particularly for
75
young men more likely to find urban employment (Carr, Meyerson et al., 2007). Migration may also hinder local
2005). Household characteristics are also important. In generational replacement, weakening local environmental
the Brazilian Amazon and in Southern Mexico, circular governance and resource management initiatives,
or iterative rural-urban migration is more likely for young particularly within the contexts in which global climate
adults, whose remittances often help to expand agricultural change poses strong local pressures upon natural resources
production (VanWey et al., 2007). Community characteristics (e.g., greater exposure of forests to pests and wildfires) that
also matter, in particular social networks. In the context require local protection capacities (Merino, 2012).
of Mexico-US migration, for instance, the impacts of
environmental and resource risks, such as droughts, on In areas receiving migrants, mixed effects on nature are
migration are different for communities with expanded social observed. For instance, migration to destinations with
networks due to migration histories (Hunter et al., 2013). high-value amenities can raise resource and environmental
degradation. In frontier mining, agriculture and ranching
While migration can be a strategy to reduce risks, much settlements, populations rise in ecologically sensitive
environmental migration is involuntary (Hunter et al., 2015). areas (Joppa et al., 2009; Wittemyer et al., 2008), e.g.,
Acute events, such as disasters (Fussell et al., 2014; Lu relocation of farm workers to cassava fields in Thailand
et al., 2016) and chronic events, such as regular droughts (Curran & Cooke, 2008) or settlements of displaced
(Bates, 2002; Hugo, 1996; Renaud et al., 2007), lead to individuals in northern Darfur, Sudan that are associated
involuntary migration. For instance, the disappearance of with lower vegetation due to the expansion of small
Lake Chad over the last few decades has been a crisis farming (Hagenlocher et al., 2012). Migration may also shift
unfolding over the long term that has both internally behaviour in receiving areas if individuals adopt attitudes
displaced people (IPCC, 2007) and generated migrations from migrants. Recent immigrants to the U.S. exhibited
to other countries (Fah, 2007). In Egypt, water pollution greater concern for environmental issues than longer-term
and desertification, with other resource scarcity, has driven immigrants or native-born citizens (Hunter, 2000). Yet it has
migration (UN, 2016b). also been found that immigrants’ perspectives about the
environment can be at odds with resource management
The degree to which migration aids household adaptation practices in receiving areas, as migrants are not very familiar
depends upon specific vulnerabilities, such as the sensitivity with local realities and practices (Merino, 2012; Robson &
of one’s livelihood to climate (Warner & Afifi, 2014). Poorest Berkes, 2011).
households may be trapped by environmental change,
lacking capital and increasingly unable to support even
the sending of a migrant to provide remittances (Black et 2.1.4.3 Urbanization
al., 2011). For Bangladesh in 1994–2010, for instance,
the poorest households were unable to use migration in Urbanization has been a significant trend in human
response to flooding (Gray & Mueller, 2012b). The poorer settlement and development (Figure 2.1.4, Figure S1,
also suffer higher exposures to environmental hazards Figure S3), driven by many factors and with significant
(including climate-related), with fewer alternatives for environmental impacts. Globally, urban population rose from
settling in safer places. Thus, they endure more severe ~200 million in 1900 to ~4 billion in 2014 (UN, 2014), at
and long-lasting consequences (Blaikie et al., 1994; Gray, which point over half of the world’s population was urban.
2009b; Gray & Mueller, 2012a; Gutmann & Field, 2010; That share is expected to reach two thirds by 2050, as
IPCC, 2007). another 2.5 billion are expected to join urban areas, most
in developing countries (CBD, 2012; Elmqvist et al., 2004;
Migration can have positive or negative environmental UN, 2014). While the percentage of urban population is the
implications for receiving or for sending areas (Adamo & highest in developed countries (~75%), it is growing the
Curran, 2012; Curran, 2002; Fussell et al., 2014; Unruh fastest in least developed and developing countries that
et al., 2004). In areas sending migrants, depopulation rose 2.3 and 1.4 times respectively, respectively, between
may improve environmental outcomes such as regrowth 1970 and 2017 (Figure 2.1.4). Europe and Central Asia,
of forests on abandoned land (Aide & Grau, 2004). and America have highest shares of urban population
Remittances back to sending areas may have positive (~ 65% in each) but shares are growing the fastest within
environmental effects, if they reduce resource dependence Africa (~40% between 1980 and 2010) and within Asia and
by substituting bought goods for local production. However, the Pacific (~25%) (Figure S3).
this often can increase food vulnerability for those who
remained. Alternatively, funds could have deleterious Megacities with populations over 10 million people continue
environmental effects, if used to expand investments in to arise and are projected to reach 41 by 2030. Small to
environmentally damaging practices, such as transformation medium-sized cities are growing the fastest and will be the
of agricultural lands into urban and peri-urban parcels home for the vast majority of future urban populations (UN,
for real estate development (de Sherbinin et al., 2008; 2014). On the other hand, there are 300–400 shrinking
76
cities in the world, about two-thirds in developed countries, share; while in the high income countries, human capital
in particular the United States, the United Kingdom and dominates (World Bank, 2018o). Within that human capital,
Germany (Kabisch & Haase, 2011; UN, 2014). Comparing the levels and types of education influence economic
IPBES regions, Africa, and Asia and the Pacific are development, including the scale of output, sectoral
urbanizing fastest, with future expansions in Asia and the mix, and techniques used. Yet the relation between
Pacific expected to occur mostly in China and India (CBD, education, economic performance, environmental attitudes
2012; Seto et al., 2011; Sui & Zeng, 2001). By 2050, up and sustainability is multifactorial − with factors such
to 3 billion people will be living in slum areas within cities, as economic and development policies, consumption
mostly in developing countries (Nagendra, 2018). patterns, and integration within the global economy playing
major roles.
Currently, urban areas cover under 3% of lands (Grimm et
al., 2008; McGranahan et al., 2005; Potere & Schneider, Human capital can be strongly affected, for instance, by
2007). Their extent is, however, expected to triple by 2030 the roles of women within a labor force. This societal factor
(Seto et al., 2012), rising faster than urban population. Much can have a strong influence not only on the use of natural
of the growth in urban extents has been observed in coastal capital but also on other forms of human capital (World
regions, with 11% of all urban land in low-elevation coastal Bank, 2018o), beyond yielding more total human capital.
zones (i.e., less than 10m above sea level), where people and Between 1995 and 2014, the estimated female share of
property are particularly vulnerable to floods and sea-level rise human capital, globally, rose to ~40% − albeit with regional
(Güneralp et al., 2015; McGranahan et al., 2007). In China, variations (from 18 to 44%; Credit Suisse, 2018).
over 44% of urban land use is within floodplains, contributing
to increasingly severe flood hazards (Du et al., 2018). Rapid 2.1.4.4.1 Less Agricultural Extension
urban expansion is driven by positive feedbacks between
urbanization and economic growth (Bai et al., 2012), which Meeting the world’s increasing demand for food while still
generate further socioeconomic disparities between the reducing agriculture’s environmental impacts is one of the
coastal and inland regions (Bai et al., 2012). defining challenges of our times. Agricultural extension
services constitute an important approach, as they
Urbanization is influenced by both ‘push’ and ‘pull’ factors may foster more productive uses of our limited natural
(Hare, 1999), with job opportunities and services ‘pulling’ resources, as in precision agriculture (Bongiovanni &
migrants while rural poverty, labor surplus, changing values Lowenberg-DeBoer, 2004). On the other hand, they can
(induced at times by the media and education), and civil catalyse degrading shifts in production systems that lead to
conflicts acting ‘pushing’ people out of rural areas. ‘Push’ many losses of diverse traditional farming systems (IPBES,
factors are often stronger, leading to many rural-urban 2018b), or widespread harmful removal of tree cover
migrants with poor employment and public services, (IPBES, 2018a).
including environmental. Poor neighborhoods in megacities
of developing countries typically have poor environmental During the 1960s and up to mid-1970s, rural support via
quality, with precarious access to safe drinking water agricultural extension was quite strong, particularly as
and sanitation (Nagendra et al 2018). Yet the drivers of associated with the Green Revolution. During the 1970s,
urbanization are quite variable (Bloom et al., 2008; Fay & extension was included explicitly within approaches to
Opal, 2000), with important roles of national policies (Bai integrated rural development. However, public-sector
et al., 2014). For instance, developed countries typically extension became more limited after the 1980s, with its
have higher levels of urbanization, with a strong correlation emphasis upon participatory approaches alongside drastic
to productivity and income (Cohen & Simet, 2018). This decreases in governmental expenditure on agricultural
forms a basis for some countries to promote urbanization as credits. In Latin America, between 1991 and 2007 such
part of a strategy for economic growth, but there are large extension expenditures were reduced to below 10%
regional disparities, as well as quite mixed results (Bai et al., (Figure S8). In addition, private support for such agricultural
2012; Bloom et al., 2008). extension also started to decline around the 1980s, leading
to underfinancing, staffing shortages, and the contraction of
extension services (FAO, 2017b).
2.1.4.4 Human Capital
2.1.4.4.2 Indigenous and Local Knowledge
Human capital − including education, knowledge, health,
capabilities and skills − is a significant component of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLCs)
development, one judged by many to be the largest share constitute a significant fraction of the world’s population
of the total wealth of all nations (World Bank, 2018o). and occupy a large fraction of the land area of the planet.
That share varies by income level: within the low income Between 1 and 1.5 billion people are considered as
countries, ‘produced and natural capital’ are the largest members of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities
77
(see chapter 1), whiles estimates about smallholders range local vs. formal) may result in multiple cultural identities
from 2 to 2.5 billion people (Zimmerer et al., 2015). IPLCs (Pearce et al., 2011). Yet, nonetheless, there are cases in
manage or have tenure rights within ~38 million km2, in which traditional knowledge and formal education have
87 countries (or politically distinct areas), on all inhabited been successfully integrated, e.g., using local language and
continents, covering over 25% of the land surface (Garnett culture in implementing education and by also motivating
et al., 2018; Oxfam et al., 2016). Their territories intersect traditional knowledge transmission (Barnnhardt & Kawagley,
with key areas for biodiversity conservation, including ~40% 2005; McCarter & Gavin, 2011; Michie, 2002; Ruiz-Mallén
of all terrestrial protected areas and ecologically intact et al., 2013).
landscapes (Bhagwat & Rutte, 2006; Foltz et al., 2003;
Sobrevila, 2008). Traditional occupations are a key source 2.1.4.4.3 Environmental Education
of livelihoods and income for many IPLCs, thus recognizing
their rights to land, benefit sharing, and the corresponding The patterns and relationships within human behaviours
local institutions are crucial for supporting local to global which are related to actions that affect nature started
biodiversity conservation goals (Garnett et al., 2018). to be more closely assessed in the 1970s and 1980s
(Hungerford & Volk, 1990). Results from systematic meta-
Today, indigenous and local knowledge (ILK) is increasingly analyses confirm that while environmental awareness is
seen as relevant for sustainable resource use, not only important, knowledge alone is not enough to motivate pro-
for IPLCs but also more broadly. This reflects a shift from environmental action (Bamberg & Möser, 2007; Klöckner,
centralized, technically oriented solutions, which have 2013). Also, pro-conservation and environmental attitudes
not substantially improved the livelihood prospects for tend to be insufficient for inspiring significant behaviours
many small farmers (even if helping others). While there (Ajzen & Fishbein, 1980; Monroe, 2003; Schwartz, 1977;
do exist multiple differences between indigenous and Stern, 2000). Instead, meaningful childhood experiences
modern/contemporary knowledge, they still have some regarding nature, in particular in the context of family
substantial overlaps, and ways to leverage the two sources members who model care for nature, have been linked
of knowledge − e.g., for optimizing agricultural systems to adult conservation behaviours (Children and Nature
around agroforestry, multiple tree-cropping systems, and Network, 2018; Clayton et al., 2012; Tanner, 1980).
soil management targeted at smallholders − are being
increasingly sought and further developed (Barrios & Trejo, While a childhood’s time in nature is clearly instrumental in
2003; Cash et al., 2003). developing a lifelong commitment to care for the Earth, a
positive and meaningful connection to nature can also be
Yet, the traditional practices stemming from ILK clearly are facilitated and enhanced throughout our lives, though, and
also declining at the very same time, and across multiple may start at any time. Nature-based activities have been
communities (Forest Peoples Programme, 2016; chapters shown to have instrumental influences on adult behaviour
2.3 and 3). For instance, changes in both values and (Chawla, 1998; Wells & Lekies, 2006). Opportunities to
knowledge can be driven by contemporary education, in cultivate that sense of connection can emerge within rural
which prestige and progress might be associated to the as well as in urban environments − not only promoting
replacement of traditional knowledge, which plays a key role environment-supporting behaviours but also leading to
in either the maintenance or the erosion of local worldviews increased health and well-being (Richardson et al., 2016).
and knowledge (Godoy et al., 2009; Reyes-García et al., Several studies have demonstrated a positive relationship
2007). More generally, schooling can loosen people’s direct between the level of involvement in nature-based activities
personal interactions with nature and lower traditional as diverse as fishing (Oh & Ditton, 2006, 2008), SCUBA
knowledge, while also potentially hindering the traditional diving (Thapa et al., 2006) and bird watching (Cheung et
transmission of knowledge based on direct learning from al., 2017; Hvenegaard, 2002; McFarlane & Boxall, 1996),
practice guided by local adults and elders. This occurs by and individuals’ concerns for the resources upon which
creating cross-generational language barriers and changing their activities depend. People also grow attached to the
cultural values (Godoy et al., 2009; Pearce et al., 2011; specific places where they interact with nature, where they
Reyes-García et al., 2014, 2007). For instance, formal are more likely to engage in conservation actions (Halpenny,
education can remove children from the everyday lives of 2010; Ramkissoon et al., 2013; Stedman, 2002; Tonge
families during the periods crucial for learning traditional et al., 2014; Vaske & Kobrin, 2001). For those already
knowledge (Ohmagari & Berkes, 1997; Ruiz-Mallén et positive toward the environment, regular time in nature
al., 2013), effective transmission of which relies upon may play an affirming role by keeping nature “top of mind”
observation, participation, and imitation in families and wider and increasing the likelihood of taking action to benefit the
local communities. As formal education focuses on abstract environment (Manfredo et al., 1992; Tarrant & Green, 1999;
and general knowledge, often alien to everyday life and local Thapa, 2010), all highlighting the importance of regular or
contexts, it may serve to overwrite elements of traditional even frequent experiences outdoors in nature (Kellert et
knowledge. Thus, different ways of learning (i.e., traditional/ al., 2017).
78
2.1.5 INDIRECT DRIVERS: abundant precipitation have extensive knowledge about

canals, dams, pools in hard rocks, and systems known
TECHNOLOGICAL as kul, naula, Khatri (Bansil, 2004). Indigenous Australians
have demonstrated detailed technical knowledge of fire
2.1.5.1 Traditional Technologies and have used it effectively to improve habitat for game
and assist with the hunt itself (Lewis, 1989). Indigenous
(Indigenous and Local Knowledge) fire management has been documented across the world
Both archaeological and contemporary evidence suggest for agricultural and pastoral use, hunting, gathering,
that humans have used and continue to use a wide fishing, vegetation growth and abundance, clearing
variety of deliberate means to manage species within vegetation, habitat protection, domestic use, medicine/
habitats rich in biotic resources (Hoffmann et al., 2016). healing and spiritual use (Mistry et al., 2016; Sletto &
Indigenous Peoples continue to interact with the planet’s Rodriguez, 2013). In Brazil, the practice of Mayú, a
ecosystems in many and varied ways: forest managers mutual cooperation in the elaboration of large-scale
in the tropical lowlands or in the mountains; pastoralists tasks within traditional farming, e.g., cutting of trees and
in savannas and other grasslands; and nomadic or burning the felled biomass, is one social institution which
semi-nomadic hunters and gatherers in forests, prairies has facilitated the formation and establishment of social
and deserts (Toledo, 2013). Large groups of Indigenous bonding as well as important intergenerational knowledge
Peoples are also just small-scale producers, not always transfer (Mistry et al., 2016).
easily distinguishable from the non-Indigenous Peoples
producing nearby. Within the Andean and Mesoamerican In tropical countries, IPLC agroforestry systems
countries of Latin America, the Indigenous Peoples are based on ancestral practices with common
farm much like surrounding small-scale farmers (Bellon characteristics. These systems are highly diversified,
et al., 2018), with technology and knowledge flowing productive and complex. Producers manipulate species
between the groups. Similarly, in India, distinctions but also vegetation and ecological processes (Toledo
between scheduled tribes and non-tribal peoples cannot & Barrera-Bassols, 2008). As within many regions of
be made solely upon the basis of productive activities. the world, in these countries the rotation of harvesting
In these and other many cases, non-indigenous and contributes to landscape heterogeneity − and while
indigenous producers plant crops using similar farming such rotation in agriculture is well known, less well
methods (Toledo, 2013), while also broadly contributing known is rotation for grazing and hunting and fishing.
to dissemination of technologies and knowledge, such as In semiarid regions such as the fringe of Sahel, for
in cases of agroforestry and other tree-cropping systems instance, seasonal patterns of rainfall drive migration
that are increasingly important within many regions by larger herbivores and by traditional herding peoples.
(Agrawal, 2014). Together, IPLCs and a wide range of This can allow for the recovery of grazed lands − which
smallholder producers contribute a significant share of can be disrupted by settlement. Throughout arid and
our global food production. semiarid Africa, traditional herders followed migratory
cycles, rotating grazing land seasonally and, in cases,
ILK and related practices are increasingly seen as rotating adjacent grazing areas within a season (Gadgil et
relevant for sustainable use. This is part of a shift from al., 1993).
centralized, technically-oriented resource management
solutions that, in many cases, adapt poorly or are even Yet, indigenous and local knowledge and practices are
harmful to local quality of life and environment. Beyond being lost, even as they come to the fore. One indication
ecological knowledge and production technologies, there is reduced linguistic diversity. The Ethnologue (Lewis,
is increasing appreciation for the importance of local 2009) identified 6,909 languages − of which half are at
institutions that underlie the local access to, use of, and risk of extinction. Linguistic diversity can be correlated
management of natural resources. with biological diversity in regions including Taiwan and
the Philippines, the Amazon Basin and Papua New
Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities’ practices Guinea and Eastern Indonesia, Northern and Central
usually are based on a broad knowledge of the complex Australia, Eastern Siberia, and Mesoamerica. Extinction
ecological systems in their own localities (Gadgil et risks for these elements of linguistic diversity are high
al., 1993). A wide range of outcomes emerge from in Australia, the Amazon and Eastern Siberia. In many
these relationships, with cases illustrating sustainable cases, these losses also correlate with the abandonment
resource and others with heavy ecosystem impacts or transformation of local production systems, with
via inappropriate management by local populations. implications for land cover change (involving reforestation
For example, water use within Indian communities has and/or deforestation), local food self-sufficiency, and the
proven to be highly efficient, for storage and distribution. loss of agrobiodiversity.
Communities located close to the mountains with
79
2.1.5.2 Technological changes in farming and agrobiodiversity. Looking globally, such

practices also can lower food security through greater
primary sectors (with direct uses
control of food systems by corporations upon whose inputs
of nature) small- and middle-scale producers become dependent
(Berlanga, 2017) and who may promote diets yielding poorer
2.1.5.2.1 Significant Transitions in nutrition. Some practices may be subsidized by national
Agriculture governments, in the favour of large firms (FAO, 2009a).
Also, despite food availability, famine has continued to come
Agriculture has expanded significantly, in response to about, given societal failures (Drèze & Sen, 1991).
increasing demands − a trend not likely to decline in the near
future, given the increases in livestock, human populations, For nature, a gain from yields can be ‘sparing’ of land,
and incomes. Yet such expansions can be either extensive, i.e., less need for land for a given output (Stevenson et al.,
via increased area, or intensive, via increased yield (output 2013). Yet, evidence of land sparing is mixed across scales
per unit area, often increased through increases in the (local, national and global), intensification types (technology-
levels of inputs). At a global scale, intensification can imply driven versus market driven) and contexts (governance).
greater shares of agriculture in some regions yet reductions Technology-driven increases in the outputs per unit area
elsewhere. Areas can fall while outputs hold steady, with can reduce the pressure on land (Byerlee & Deininger, 2013)
increases in yields, as in high income countries in Latin when intensification is far from frontier areas, so demands
America and the Caribbean (Figure S9). Illustrating regional pull labor away from frontier areas. It can increase pressure
variation, agricultural yields and areas rose concurrently by raising frontier productivity − increasing returns to lands
in middle income countries, as well as in low- and middle (ibid). The market dynamics matter (DeFries et al., 2013;
income sub-Saharan Africa. For instance, there was a rise Meyfroidt et al., 2013; Rudel et al., 2009b). For the IPBES
in both land area allocated to cereals and the cereals yield in regions, Africa responded to such increases in demands
sub-Saharan Africa, while other areas focused on raising yield by increasing areas, while Asia and the Pacific responded
without any significant increase in their farming areas. Most mainly by increasing yields, using investments in both
of the agricultural producers in this region are smallholders infrastructure and governance (IPBES, 2018b).
− including those farmers who practice slash-and-burn
agriculture, which in some areas has contributed significantly Potential adjustments to improve trajectories include applying
to the losses of forest ecosystems and biodiversity. IPLCs’ agroecological innovations. Additional potential
adjustments include various uses of biotechnology that, in
Historically, the Green Revolution brought important traditional forms, have contributed for millennia. Providing
changes with both opportunities and risks. During the foods and medicines via farmer selection and breeding of
1960s, 1970s and 1980s, yields of rice, maize and wheat all crops and animals has deep roots in local and traditional
increased steadily via the application of innovations in seed knowledge. Ongoing uses include a large number of plant
development, irrigation and fertilizer use. With billions added varieties (for agrobiodiversity) and livestock breeds adapted
to the world population, since these practices began, many to extremely varied soil, climate, disease, predation, and
believe that without gains in outputs, famine and malnutrition management contexts with specific qualities. These varieties
would have been much greater. A nutrition expert who and breeds constitute an asset to preserve for all of humanity,
led the FAO, Lord Boyd Orr, was awarded a Nobel Peace while modern agriculture has tended to homogenize the
Prize in 1949. The ‘father’ of the Green Revolution, Norman genetic diversity of crops and herds (see also chapter 2.2).
Borlaug, was also awarded a Nobel Peace Prize, in 1970,
for ‘providing bread’. Borlaug promoted the aggressive Further potential adjustments are genetically engineered
use of all advances in traditional methods − and then later seeds (genetically modified organisms -GMO)
championed genetic engineering − to develop varieties with commercialized in 1996 and planted on ~185 million ha,
greater yields, as well as resistance to diseases. across 26 countries, by 2016 (ISAAA, 2016) to increase
insect resistance (IR) and herbicide tolerance (HT) in maize,
Yet, the Green Revolution highlights both the immense soybean, cotton and rapeseed, thus lowering damages and
potential and significant trade-offs from innovations crop losses (Lichtenberg & Zilberman, 1986). Hundreds of
(Abramczyk et al., 2017). Chemicals uses caused studies of farm-level impacts of HT and IR including field
environment and health issues (Singh & Singh, 2000; WHO trials in many countries reveal substantial but not universal
& UNEP, 1989; WRI et al., 1992). Also, intensive fossil- yield gain (Carpenter, 2010; Finger et al., 2011; Qaim,
fuel agricultural practices have negatively affected the 2009). Yet by increasing cotton yields 34%, corn yields
water table in many regions. Food security fell for some, 12% and soybean yields 3% such seeds are estimated to
as production shifted out of the subsistence approaches have spared 13 million ha of land from agriculture in 2010
which had been feeding many peasants in India. Also, (Barrows et al., 2014b). Yield gains should be greatest in
monocultures have yielded poorer diets than traditional developing countries (Qaim & Zilberman, 2003), where
80
pest pressures are higher, but smaller where pest damage Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda use
is effectively controlled by conventional means (Carpenter, solid fuels to cook and to heat (GACC, 2017). Persistence
2010; National Research Council, 2016; Qaim, 2009). within such behaviours is due in part to societal values of
fuelwood, the slow development of markets for modern
Evidence about lower pesticide and herbicide use due to fuels (e.g., liquid petroleum gas) and clean cookstoves, with
such seeds is mixed. National Research Council (2000b) little information on personal or social benefits of switching
reported resistance in only three pest species in the first fuels and stoves (Masera et al., 2000; Schlag & Zuzarte,
14 years of commercial IR cropping, yet the cases have 2008). High capital costs and poor infrastructure have both
increased over time (Bennett et al., 2004). The NRC (National also further inhibited the household adoption of modern
Research Council, 2016) determined that damaging levels fuels and technologies (e.g., electricity). In western Uganda,
of resistance evolved in some insects targeted by IR crops fuelwood consumption has contributed to deforestation
where resistance-management practices were not followed. (Dovie et al., 2004; Ndangalasi et al., 2007; Nkambwe &
For instance, at least 10 species of weeds have evolved a Sekhwela, 2006)though small-scale agriculture and timber
resistance to glyphosate within the United States due to remain the primary drivers (Geist & Lambin, 2002; Jagger et
a nearly exclusive reliance on it for weed control (Duke & al., 2012; Mwavu & Witkowski, 2008). Outside parks, half
Powles, 2009). The situation may be improved by uses of of tropical forest on private land is degraded (Nsita, 2005) in
varied weed control mechanisms (Barrows et al., 2014a). part to gain de facto property rights (Jagger, 2010).
Overall, as for other innovations, trade-offs emerged for
genetically engineered seeds − including increasing costs, Land-use change has greatly lowered the standing biomass
though control costs can decline sufficiently to improve over quite a short period of time (e.g., 26% in 2003-11). This
farms’ margins (Carpenter, 2010). can induce the planting of trees, as a response to scarcity
of biomass. Yet it is only at small scale. Greater responses
Trade-offs for GMO seeds might also include environmental by rural households are in quantity and source of fuels −
concerns, such as impacts on crop genetic diversity, people’s with significant shifts away from fuelwood from the forests
health and farmers’ livelihoods. Gene flows across GMO and to fuelwood from non-forest areas, which are larger where
non-GMO seed can result from cross-pollination between significant conversions have lowered biomass (Jagger &
GMO and non-GMO plants from different fields, as confirmed Kittner, 2017). More use of crop residues is consistent with
for the case of some landraces of maize in Mexico by a board this sort of shift. Shifting fuel types and sources has at least
of scientists (Commission for Environmental Cooperation, two direct impacts, at the level of a household: an increase
2004), thus suggesting more attention is needed (National in the use of low quality fuels, which raising exposures to
Research Council, 2010). Genes can also be transferred household air pollution (Forouzanfar et al., 2015); and an
to wild plant species belonging to the same genus, which increase in the time required to collect fuel, with women
may have unpredictable effects. In terms of health, use of primarily bearing the cost (Jagger & Kittner, 2017).
the herbicide glyphosate has been linked to an increase in
cancer rates and teratogenesis in Argentina (Pengue, 2005)
and some data suggest accumulations within the animal 2.1.5.3 Technological changes,
and human food chains (Krüger et al., 2014) − yet the US and trade-offs, within
NRC did not find evidence that consumption of GMO foods
urbanization and industry
is riskier than non-GMO counterparts (FAO, 2000; National
Research Council, 2000a, 2000b; WHO, 2005). Economic Transport investment and other innovations facilitated
benefits and costs have been documented in varied contexts urbanization, generating both productivity − as economies
(Brookes & Barfoot, 2012; Kathage & Qaim, 2012; Qaim & diversified into manufacturing and services − and many
de Janvry, 2003; Qaim & De Janvry, 2005; Zambrano et al., other consequences. At the landscape level, transport
2009) yet there can exist concerns even about the economic investments also improved market access for peripheral
and political pressure upon such science itself. areas. Still, most gains may go to urban areas and the
linkages can further raise concentrations (Scott, 2009).
2.1.5.2.2 Limited Transitions in Biomass
Within cities, transport costs again are critical. Given
Energy
relatively fixed land areas, scale economies with high density
Innovation has also occurred in how energy is produced and eventually can be offset by congestion, i.e., traffic with time
used. More than in any other region, though, households in costs, so another urban investment has been in subways
sub-Saharan Africa still depend upon biomass for domestic (Scott, 2009, chapter 4). Densities also raise the challenges
energy supply – with effects on health and nature (Arnold et of disease (Scott, 2009, pp. 140–141). Innovations such
al., 2006; Bailis et al., 2015, 2005; Foley, 2001; Ramanathan as vaccines address many threats, including in low income
& Carmichael, 2008; Vlosky & Smithhart, 2011), particularly settings today, as do investments in sanitation that still affect
within East Africa. Approximately 95% of the people in choices of locations.
81
For direct uses of nature, scarcities have motivated nature (Popp et al., 2010) and motivate further investments
innovations, including reductions in material or pollution into research and development (Chuang, 1998; Golombek
intensities per unit production. Changes are due to both & Hoel, 2004). Broader use of such innovations could
purely private motivations or regulations (see governance avoid the most environmentally destructive elements of
below) and, as consumptions rises, are needed to meet economic development (Carson, 2009; Munasinghe, 1999),
basic needs without raising consequent degradation. As allowing ‘leapfrogging’ to modern technologies, e.g., grid
consumers and as citizens, people may be willing to incur or solar electricity, to furnish urban centers (Liu et al.,
costs for cleaner production. For instance, households 2016a). Such diffusion may require regulation (Popp et al.,
might on their own invest in stoves (Chaudhuri & Pfaff, 2010) or subsidies to flourish (Fu et al., 2011; Goldemberg,
2003; Pfaff et al., 2004a, 2004b; and many studies cited 1998; Murphy, 2001) yet in cases diffusion could even
in World Bank, 2007) to produce cooking, heating and facilitate economic development (Munasinghe, 1999; Popp
lighting services with far less pollution. This applies in rural et al., 2010) – including within fast-growing economies
areas but also has significant spillovers to ambient air quality (Jayanthakumaran et al., 2012).
within cities.
Yet, as for other innovations, there are trade-offs including
Scarcities of water quality and quantity clearly have for nature – e.g., fossil fuel emissions from cars to windmills
motivated innovations, e.g., to purify water (Jalan & that hit birds. Replacing fuelwood with hydropower clearly
Somanathan, 2004) or to find safer sources (Madajewicz aids forests and indoor air quality (Liu et al., 2016a) but
et al., 2007). Understanding risk is critical for investments shifts water flows and flooding, with negative effects on
in both piped water (Jalan & Ravallion, 2003) and bottled biodiversity and more (Bunn & Arthington, 2002). While
(Fetter et al., 2017). For water quantity, as for irrigation, at antibiotics have saved lives for over a century, and long
the local and community levels water shortages lead to been used in animal production, aquaculture, and high-
social innovations such as local upstream-downstream value fruits and vegetables (McManus et al., 2002) as well
groups to allocate water, as in Sri Lanka (Uphoff, 1996). as feeds (Holmstrom et al., 2003; Kumar et al., 2005),
Analogously, Ostrom (1990) documents a Spanish they enter the soils plus surface and ground water and
community’s innovations to make water-use reductions drain to coastal bodies of water where they do not readily
physically and socially feasible, despite outputs goals. degrade (Holmstrom et al., 2003). Their widespread
overuse also has led to a proliferation of antibiotic-resistant
Enormous shifts in energy efficiency are occurring, including bacteria (Holmstrom et al., 2003; Kumar et al., 2005;
in renewable energy. High prices for fossil fuels motivate McManus et al., 2002) to the point of being recognized by
such investments – just as recent lower prices for fossil fuels the World Health Organization as a major, global public-
reduced the intensities of both conservation and exploration. health problem.
Higher costs such as for extensions of electricity grids on
rural frontiers also motivate investments in substitutes, such
as solar, that degrade less. The diffusion or spreading of
such innovations during industrial development can help
82
2.1.6 INDIRECT DRIVERS: income and ~30% in middle income countries. Service
shares increased steadily as well, reaching ~50% in low
ECONOMIC income and 63% in middle income countries by 2016. For
high income countries, after fluctuating, they rose steadily
2.1.6.1 Structural Transition until stabilizing around 68%.
2.1.6.1.1 Economic Composition (shifts According to the Vienna University of Economics and
Business (WU, 2017), industrialized economies in Europe
across sectors)
and North America have lowest material intensities (at
Since 1950, economies have shifted out of agriculture and 0.5 tons of material consumption per US$1000 of GDP in
towards both industry and services, in varied mixes. It is clear 2013, down from 0.8 and 1 in 1980, respectively). While this
(Figure 2.1.5) that agriculture’s share of value added is higher can be driven by technology shifts mentioned above, and
for low- than for high income countries, while the opposite by increased trade mentioned below, it (Figure 2.1.6) is
ranking of shares holds in manufacturing and services. partially due to the shift towards services.
For low income countries, employment shares across Yet, scale still matters. Since 1950, world population
sectors were stable between 1990 to 2016 at ~65% in grew by a factor of 2.7 and global material consumption
agriculture, ~9% in industry and ~26% in services. Across by a factor of 3.7 (Schaffartzik et al., 2014). Furthermore,
the same time period, however, the share of employment resource use is unequal, linked to poverty. Western industrial
in agriculture fell 10% for all the middle income countries countries that shared 44% of global GDP and 15% of world
(down from ~46% in the lower-middle income and ~27% population in 2010 have been responsible for almost half of
in upper-middle income countries), while the employment the global material consumption. In recent decades, there
share in industry was relatively stable, rising about 4% has been a shift toward China (Muradian et al., 2012).
during this period. Thus, employment went into services,
which rose to ~37% in lower-middle and ~61% in upper- That shift in relative scales interacts with unequal intensities
middle income countries, while also rising about 10%, to (Figure 2.1.6) to modify global intensities. Expansion in Asia
73.1%, within high income countries. raised average material extraction intensity for the global
economy (Figure 2.1.6), although without ‘decoupling’ the
Shares of GDP had similar trends, with agriculture falling for degradation of nature from economic growth (WU, 2017):
all country groups − albeit earlier for the high income but while Asia’s material intensity remained relatively constant
more smoothly for the middle income countries, stabilizing for almost two decades after 1980 (at around 2.5 tons per
near 9% for upper-middle- and 16% for lower-middle $1000 US GDP), that measure rose (to 3.1 tons in 2013).
income countries. From the 1960s, industry shares of GDP African economies still have highest intensities but their
rose more steeply in high income countries, peaking at improvement since 1980 (from 4.2 to 3.3 tons) has also
about 50% in 1974 while stabilizing at around 20% in low been significant.
A Agriculture B Industry C Services

45 45 45
40
VALUE ADDED TO GDP (%)
40
35 40
35
30
35 30
25
20 25
30
15
20
10 25
15
5
0 20 10
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Global High Income Upper-middle income Lower-middle income Low income
Figure 2 1 5 Changes in economic composition: Value Added in Agriculture A versus Industry

B and Services C .
Values per country are averaged for World Bank income categories. Services sum service exports and imports then are divided
by GDP, all in current U.S. dollars. Sources: (World Bank, 2018a, 2018b, 2018c, 2018d, 2018e)
83
4.5
3.5
TONS PER CONSTANT 1000US$
Africa
3 Asia and the

Pacific
Latin America &
2.5 Caribbean
WORLD
2 West Asia
North America
1.5
Europe
0.5
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
YEAR
Figure 2 1 6 Trend of material intensity (domestic material consumption in tons per constant
2005 US$1000 of GDP) by world region (1980~2013).
Average values for six world regions and the world average for the tons of extracted materials necessary to produce economic
output (in 1000 constant US $). Source: UN Environment Programme International Resource Panel Global Material Flows
Database (https://www.resourcepanel.org/global-material-flows-database).
2.1.6.1.2 Factors Supporting Sectoral Beliefs about or perceptions of risk across sectors can
Shifts help to drive such economic transitions (Lubell et al., 2007;
Whitehead, 2006). It can be hard to ascertain environmental
Concerns about degradation are one motivation for quality, resulting in misaligned perceptions of safety and
individuals to put resources into transitions, such as incorrectly low demand for actions that support nature
across sectors. Such concerns or values are suggested (Orgill et al., 2013). Salient information about the lack of
when people take costly actions to maintain or to improve environmental quality can spur demands for adjustments
natural assets (e.g., Atkinson et al., 2012; Freeman et al., (Brown et al., 2015; Hamoudi et al., 2012; Madajewicz et
2013; Merino & Martínez, 2014; Smith, 1996), e.g., treat al., 2007). Within the provision of such information, one key
water or use improved cooking technologies (Alberini et issue is the multidimensionality of environmental amenities or,
al., 2010; Pattanayak & Pfaff, 2009), conserve ecosystems more generally, nature. For example, dimensions of drinking
(Ferraro et al., 2012; Kramer, 2007; Majuru et al., 2016) water that can affect behaviour include: price, convenience,
and forests (Merino & Martínez, 2014). Scarcity of nature reliability, taste, turbidity, and more (Farber & Griner, 2000;
shifts the value placed on nature, as in the ‘diamond-water Jeuland et al., 2016, 2014; Ma & Swinton, 2011). As a result,
paradox’ (Farber & Griner, 2000; Heal, 2000): water is offering information on water’s reliability alone may achieve
essential to sustain life yet, when perceived as plentiful, little if other features affect decision trends.
is used in non-conserving ways (Barnett & Morse, 1963;
Pratt & Zeckhauser, 1996). Willingness to incur costs to When markets perceive scarcities, price rises, providing
shift behaviours also depends upon the belief that costs incentives to invest, as in forests (Foster & Rosenzweig,
will be shared among interested parties and have positive 2003), while countries may respond with policy (Mather,
outcomes. For instance, if families perceive that others 2004; Mather & Fairbairn, 2000; Mather et al., 1999a);
free-ride on their actions, not engaging in contributions but for example, Bae et al. (2012) argue that South Korea’s
benefiting, they too might free ride (Graves, 2009; Matta forest transition was due in some measure to reforestation
& Alavalapati, 2006; Starrett, 2003). Still, given a chance policies. A different dynamic is a buildup of human capital
they may vote for rules that bind behaviours (Álvarez-Farizo that facilitates a switch to industry (Choumert et al., 2013;
et al., 2007; Starrett, 2003; Wilson & Howarth, 2002; Mather et al., 1999a). Hecht et al. (2015) highlight the roles
Wiser, 2007). of urbanization and remittances in behavioural shifts (e.g.,
84
farmers migrate to the cities), while if populations stabilize, result of international trade. Last is the ‘technique effect’
implying less growth in demands for crops, and in labor that can apply to any type of economic activity, in which for
supply for agriculture, that can result in reduced pressure private reasons and due to public policies innovations, as
for new deforestation (Angelsen, 2007; Wolfersberger et discussed above, there are lower damages per unit output
al., 2015). For instance, Rudel et al. (2000) found that for for any sector (Brunel, 2017; Grether et al., 2009; Shapiro &
Puerto Rico, non-farm jobs pulled labor out of agriculture; Walker, 2015). Some studies evaluate whether international
agricultural production could then become more intensive, trade induces such effects (Cherniwchan et al., 2017; after
which could reduce the pressures on forests, while some Antweiler et al., 2001; Cole & Elliott, 2003; Levinson, 2009;
agricultural lands could revert to forest (Rudel et al., 2005). and Managi et al., 2009).
This lower pressure on forests can also result from a
reduction of fuelwood collection (DeFries & Pandey, 2010). These three effects can sum up to reverse trends for nature.
One example of nonlinear and trend-reversing behaviour
2.1.6.1.3 Implications for Nature of during economic development has been forest cover, i.e.,
‘forest transitions’ (Mather, 1992). Various such sequences
Sectoral Shifts (‘composition effects’)
have been observed across the globe (Belay et al., 2015; He
Sectoral shifts affect nature. A substantial literature during the et al., 2014; Mather, 2007; Mather et al., 1999b; Meyfroidt
1990s found relationships between pollution concentrations & Lambin, 2011; Rudel, 1998; Rudel et al., 2002). While
and GDP per capita using data since World War II: as GDP these forest cases do differ, their commonality is that in each
per capita increases, pollution concentrations rise then fall case the trend in land use has been reversed (Barbier et
(Gale & Mendez, 1996; Grossman & Krueger, 1991, 1995; al., 2017) due to shifts in human choices, given changes in
Hilton & Levinson, 1998; Selden & Song, 1994; Shafik & decision conditions. Box 2.1.1 highlights the importance of
Bandyopadhyay, 1992). In general, however, it appears that understanding these dynamics well.
the specific relationships between pollution and economic
growth can be quite different across the many types of
pollutants, including in that they can be sensitive to the period 2.1.6.2 Concentrated Production
of study and the quality of the data (Carson, 2009; Harbaugh
et al., 2002; Stern, 2004; Stern et al., 1996). This speculative Corporations and financial agencies now control amounts
relationship was labeled the ‘Environmental Kuznets Curve’ of financial capital, which rival the revenues of the vast
(EKC, as a reference to Simon Kuznets’ ideas in the 1950s majority of countries. The top nine largest economies are
about patterns of economic inequality for economic growth). countries but at least one company on its own could be
the next largest, with larger revenues than the economies
Parsing such patterns, Copeland and Taylor (2013) of India, South Korea or Australia (Anderson & Cavanagh,
distinguish a few underlying changes that occur with the 2000). Another five corporations are, then, among the 22
growth of an economy. Thus, when considering policies largest ‘economies’ using these measures of size. One oil
to shift outcomes, one might focus on any of these company, for instance, has a larger ‘economy’ than Mexico,
dimensions. The ‘scale effect’ refers to effects of the amount India or Sweden. This size can affect the bargaining
of production. The ‘composition effect’ refers to a change over any number of exchanges, from contracts with
in the mix across types of economic activity – recalling that laborers to the exchanges of varied goods in which nature
such changes in the sectoral mix could occur in part as a is embedded.
Box 2 1 2 Examples of supply chain concentrations relevant for uses of natural resources.
Coffee Despite variations, coffee beans have long been viewed rents at the start of the supply chain (Fafchamps & Hill, 2008;
as an undistinguished commodity. Around 70% of coffee Fitter & Kaplinksy, 2001). A survey in Uganda in 2003 showed
is grown in farms under 5 ha (Fitter & Kaplinksy, 2001), so that the volatility of farm-gate prices did not reflect world prices,
market power is at the other end of the supply chain: 10 global consistent with local traders exploiting small farmers’ relative
importers control over 60% of global trade. In some countries, lack of information. Recently, though, the industry gives more
buyers collude to drive down prices. Similarly, roasters are attention to some of the characteristics of production locations.
highly consolidated, e.g., five European companies controlled That can shift some market power to producers changing local
over 58% of the market in 1998. This affects governance of the communities’ incentives to invest in nature and shifting the
chain and revenues by stage. Producers’ prices remained flat trade-offs from using it.
or fell slightly over time while consumer prices increased and, in
1995, only 40% of the price stayed in the producing country to Horticulture (fruits and vegetables) Similar results hold
be split between producers and traders, implying at best zero in horticulture – boosted by transportation and refrigeration
85
Box 2 1 2
technologies. Many developing countries with geographical chain downstream. Thus, cotton producers have shifted to trying
advantages in fruit and vegetables supply, including in Africa, cottonseed processing, where market power is not so menaced
try to reach European markets. Yet, European food retailing by international competition and shifting demands (Hutson et al.,
is extremely concentrated with the top 5 supermarket chains 2005). Generally, shifts in the power between retail, upstream,
serving approximately 50% of the market in 1996, with producing and intermediate actors are important for understanding growth
countries capturing only 40% of the value. Europeans’ demands implications for the newly industrialized economies (Conway &
for higher phytosanitary, social, and environmental standards Shah, 2011). Many developing countries are exporting textiles
− plus high predictability – helped out the larger exporters as given foreign requirements that could boost internal productivity.
well. In Kenya and Zimbabwe, for instance, few individuals and Yet, in terms of surpluses earned, this may raise in-country
companies had capital to export (Dolan & Humphrey, 2000) and surplus yet not help cotton per se. All of the dynamics are
such opportunities made them more productive and also more important determinants of the economic and environmental trade-
successful within their domestic markets (Pavcnik, 2002). For offs faced, an understanding of which in this case can greatly
flowers, recent technological innovations supported expansions inform policies focused upon water pollution.
by the traditional producers. Ecuador possesses advantages
with year-round supply and cheap labor – yet without producer Furniture (forests upstream) This chain has five main stages:
cooperation and differentiated products these advantages do forestry; sawmills; manufacturers; buyers and retailers. Demand
not yield market power. If flower producers are not aware of shifts and retailer innovations raised retail competitive pressures
final market conditions but informed by few importers, they get and buyer concentration (Kaplinsky et al., 2003). Traditionally
small profit shares. These dynamics affect the linkages from labor intensive, this chain has a trend of falling prices, driven
consumption to degradation and its local net benefits. by rising competition and global price convergence with global
sourcing (Kaplinsky & Readman, 2005). Buying is now done
Textiles and Apparel In the 1980s, Mexican producers of blue by a few actors who control higher-value-added activities such
jeans, for instance, moved from serving a small domestic demand as marketing, design and after-sales service. Manufacturing is
to serving the US by partnering with 4 major manufacturers (Bair heterogeneous. South African producers are traditionally large,
& Gereffi, 2001). By 2000, several top US retailers joined them, yet Kaplinsky et al. (2003) note declining prices due to the
expanding the market. However, the fairly homogeneous nature better competitive positions of buyers and suggested shifting
of their output and a reliance on external inputs was conducive to into a different value chain (Saligna wood), with varied uses that
only small rents, spurred an attempt at upgrading into marketing allow entry with higher unit prices. Ivarsson and Alvstam (2010)
and design via their own brands. Yet, as in African horticulture, examined firms’ subcontractors in China and South East Asia.
only the few most productive and capitalized firms could manage Over half sell over 60% of output to one firm, whose bargaining
this. That increased market power and concentrated rents for power implies a larger share of surplus, consistent with Gereffi
a domestic elite (Bair & Gereffi, 2001) – while pushing down et al. (2005) since the captive supplier is subject to the market
wages, which exacerbated domestic inequities. The textiles trade power of that ‘lead firm’ (see also taxonomy in Milberg, 2004).
used to be driven and governed by cotton producers. However, Which chains suppliers sell into greatly changes their incentives
consolidation of retailers shifted the governance of the supply for conservation of nature.
Large financial players also have emerged. Those include from production (Lenzen et al., 2012b). Over three
private equity investors, such as infrastructure investment decades, the global exports of food have risen 10-fold (UN
funds, or institutional investors, such as pension and mutual COMTRADE, 2013). Trade that crosses national borders
funds (particularly mandatory pension contributions), all affects 41% of materials extracted (Robertson & Swinton,
attracted by opportunities including the large infrastructure 2005; Wiedmann et al., 2015).
developments (Arezki et al., 2016). To some extent,
an increased role for private capital goes along with a Comparing regions, North-East Asia is by far the
reduced or altered role of governments within infrastructure biggest net importer of raw materials (Figure 2.1.7),
investments. In addition, complex instruments and funding with very high net imports of ferrous metals, petroleum
flows can make it hard to trace the lines of ownership, or and coal per China’s enormous demands for these raw
responsibility, affecting governance. materials within industry and infrastructure. The biggest
net exporters are Oceania (mainly Australia), Eastern
Europe (mainly Russia), South America (mainly Brazil)
2.1.6.3 Trade and Western Asia (mainly Saudi Arabia) – which export
based upon immense natural-resources endowments.
2.1.6.3.1 Goods & Materials Flows Australia has large deposits of metal ores and coal, for
instance, while for Russia oil and gas reserves have
Flows of goods and inputs rise as smaller shares of resource played important economic roles, yielding considerable
needs are satisfied domestically and separates consumption export revenues.
86
A PHYSICAL TRADE BALANCE, 1980 B PHYSICAL TRADE BALANCE, 2008
-1000 -750 -500 -250 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750
C
MAIN NET EXPORTERS OF MATERIALS
million tonnes million tonnes million tonnes
Saudi Arabia The Russian Federation Australia
MAIN NET IMPORTERS OF MATERIALS

million tonnes million tonnes million tonnes
United States of America Japan China
Other Metals Fossil fuels Minerals Biomass
Figure 2 1 7 The physical dimension of global trade. Physical Trade Balances, by IPBES regions,
A in 1980, and B in 2008 (millions of tons).
The regions in magenta are net exporters of materials, while regions in green are net importers. Underneath are the top three
countries in terms of both net imports and net exports, by material categories and physical trade balances. Source: own
elaboration with data from WU (2017) ( A , B ); Dittrich et al. (2012) C .
2.1.6.3.2 Telecoupling and Spillovers: Spillovers occur as a result of these telecouplings: effects
trade-offs embedded within the trading of (seemingly unrelated) events in one region clearly are
experienced in other regions.
of goods
Ecosystems are ever more shaped by distant interactions The growing trade of goods implies many displaced impacts
among countries or ‘telecouplings’ as the world is becoming upon nature − between one quarter and one half of the
more global. Telecouplings refer to socioeconomic and environmental impacts from consumption are felt in regions
environmental interactions over distances (Sun et al., 2017). other than where the consumption occurs: CO2 emissions,
87
chemical pollutants, biodiversity loss, and depletion of Thus, relocation of production and degradation affects
freshwater resources (IPBES, 2018a). For instance, 30% of evaluations of net impacts of governance. Regulations
threatened species (Lenzen et al., 2012b) and 32% of the on emissions may appear to be ‘effective’ in regulated
consumption of scarce water, i.e., water used within regions locations, even if degradation simply has shifted to other
with water scarcity (Lenzen et al., 2013), have been linked regions. For instance, since 1990 the UK had measured
with international trade. This illustrates spillover effects from reductions of up to 16% of domestic CO2 emissions
consumption of traded goods, in which environmental costs within its energy and water sectors, yet the CO2 emissions
from the production of goods to supply international markets embodied in imports in those sectors, i.e. those emissions
are being incurred far from where the consumption occurs. associated to the production of products that are imported,
rose 208% in the same time period (Kanemoto et al., 2014).
Displaced deforestation, pollution, water scarcity, soil loss,
and erosion all occur at the expense of ecosystems in other As to the motivations for such enormous increases over time
countries, in particular developing countries (Lenzen et al., in the global trade interconnections (and maybe for the lack of
2012a, 2013; Moran et al., 2013). Studies considering the interest in tracking them for governance), without a question
impacts on biodiversity. Chaudhary and Kastner (2016) national scarcities of nature’s contributions often have been
found that 83% of total species loss is due to agriculture for part of the drive underlying country interests in accessing
domestic consumption while 17% is due to the production the nature elsewhere, either directly or embedded in outputs
for export. Exports from Indonesia to the USA and China (Figure S11) (Galli et al., 2012; Verones et al., 2017). Exports
generate high impacts (20 species lost regionally for each). from the global South, for instance, often have been based
An estimated 485 species currently face high risks of on natural assets, including oil and gas (Muradian et al., 2012)
extinction in 174 countries, with about one third of those that were demanded by countries with growing economies
being a result of current land use patterns (Figure 2.1.8). but also growing scarcities of energy. Among the importers
Perhaps 12% of premature deaths in 2007 from air pollution of nature, Europe had highest trade flows balances which
were caused by pollutants generated by other regions, shifted nature’s degradation elsewhere (Dittrich & Bringezu,
with 22% arising from the exports of goods and services 2010), yet natural flows are a global phenomenon. In short, as
(Zhang et al., 2017). Exporters get economic returns and illustrated in Figure 2.1.8, exports can have significant costs
technological advancements (Daniels, 1999) but also host in local nature degradation.
negative environmental consequences (Schmitz et al.,
2012) − including from monocropping plantations, e.g., for Turning to potential socioeconomic trade-offs involved,
soybean in the Amazon and Chaco, avocados in Central which can vary with implementation as trade can occur on
Mexico or cotton, sugar, palm oil and biofuels elsewhere, positive or negative terms, the large trade flows sometimes
with health impacts (Lin et al., 2014; Zhao et al., 2015). have arisen under contracts with unbalanced sharing of
gains (Arduino et al., 2012) and such inequities can get
It is important to recall that sustainability in one country can institutionalized in intergovernmental agreements. Merme et
rely upon unsustainability in others. Meyfroidt and Lambin al. (2014) find different distributions of hydropower benefits
(2009) find a ‘forest transition’ in Vietnam involved displacing in the Mekong Basin under actual contracting than would be
extraction elsewhere (Dasgupta et al., 2002; Levinson & expected if all exchanges had occurred under transparent
Taylor, 2008; Stern, 2004; Suri & Chapman, 1998). In the contracting in which all parties were fully informed. Arduino
US, the New England region’s forests regrew as railroads et al. (2012) consider how many rentals of valuable lands
linked to the Midwest region that grew in exports due to occurred for low fees, evading Tanzanian laws (and resulting
high agricultural productivity (Pfaff & Walker, 2010). Along in water pollution). Houdret (2012) connect costly uses of
those lines, Kull et al. (2006), Meyfroidt et al. (2010), and water to the mismanagement of public-private partnerships
Meyfroidt and Lambin (2011) tracked trade to link with forest in Morocco. Transboundary rivers feature conflicts (Biswas,
transitions. Leblois et al. (2017) find that countries at the 2011), e.g. a lack of trust between India, Nepal, and
beginning of forest transitions deforest thanks to trade, while Bangladesh over the Mahakali River Treaty despite prior
those at the end reforest from trade. political processes (Khalid, 2010).
Trade redistributes emissions of greenhouse gases (Figure In such contexts, some refer to resource exchanges not as
2.1.8). Production for international markets links with 26% ‘trade’ but as ‘grabbing’ − in order to explicitly question the
(Peters et al., 2011) to 30% (Kanemoto et al., 2014) of adequacy of the levels of compensation involved (Dell’Angelo
global carbon emissions. However, such effects have been et al., 2018; Franco et al., 2013). The appropriate label is
neglected in the relevant international treaties, as carbon not always clear. Acquisitions without compensation, such
accounting was considered solely per country − without as water diversions or cross-border pollution (“e-waste”
including the shifting of emissions from importing to exporting in Awasthi et al., 2016), may clearly be ‘grabbing’. Yet,
nations (Kanemoto et al., 2014; Peters et al., 2011). These adequacy of compensation is “in the eyes of the beholder”.
spillovers in fact are larger than reductions in emissions. Trade can allow all countries to gain from others’ strengths,
88
but price is critical for equity – including when the global that effectively exports global public goods, such as carbon
South imports (potentially displacing production). ‘Grabbing’ storage or species habitat, through forest protection. This
parties may justify transactions by arguing that their may earn global funding transfers, also raising issues
investments raise the access to or the productivity of of adequate compensation. Overall impacts upon local
underutilized resources. That possible efficiency rationale for well-being depend on who gets paid, how much, in
the external inputs does not directly address the distributional which conditions.
consequences for vulnerable local populations.
Concerning lands, over 1000 deals have been recorded,
Nature-economy trade-offs also arise in the conservation globally, covering ~50 million hectares. Africa hosts over 400
of nature in lower-income and least developed countries for ~10 million hectares (Anseeuw et al., 2012; Nolte et al.,
7. Spain
A
5. UK
4. France
3. Germany
6. Italy
8. Russia
9. Canada
1. USA 2. Japan
8. South Korea
9. Cambodia
5. Philippines
10. Cameroon 6. Sri Lanka
1. Indonesia
7. Thailand
4. Malaysia
TOTAL EXPORTS TOTAL IMPORTS 2. Madagascar
3. Papua New Guinea

1,000
500
100
10
Fig. 4. Largest growing flows of embodied CO 2 to (rightward arrows) and from (leftward arrows) the USA (absolute growth 1990–2010, in tons of CO 2 ).
Figure 2 1 8 Global trade imports and flows measured as biodiversity and CO2 footprints.
A Biodiversity footprint showing top ten exporting countries associated with pressures on biodiversity in developing economies
and top ten importing countries with respect to pressures on biodiversity (developed and emerging economies); thicker arrows
indicate a larger number of threatened species associated with that bilateral trade flow. B Largest growing flows of embodied
CO2 (amount of CO2 emissions associated to the production of products that are imported to the USA (rightward arrows) and
from (leftward arrows), measured as absolute growth 1990-2010 in tons of CO2). Source: (IPBES, 2018a; Kanemoto et al., 2014;
Lenzen et al., 2012a).
89
2016). Rulli et al. (2013) estimate up to 1.75% of cultivable are high, ranging from one fifth to half of GDP). In 2014,
land has been ‘grabbed’. Many deals involve conversion of 250 million migrants sent 583 billion US dollars. As the
savannah or forest to crops or trees such as oil palm (Borras remittances raise disposable income, they can alter
Jr & Franco, 2012), using water from river basins (Borras Jr consumption patterns in communities. That can, in turn,
et al., 2011). In Africa, investors are largely firms, at times promote land-cover change due to growth of agricultural
in partnerships with national and local governments. Little activities that need land. In other cases, however, migration
evidence exists concerning free, prior, and informed local yields reductions in subsistence agriculture and, thus, the
consent. Instead, weak consultation is reported, yielding pressures on lands.
protests since customary ownership and custody, with
stewardship, coexists with legal state ownership that locally Nine out of the ten most biodiverse countries, globally, are
may not be seen as legitimate (Nolte, 2014; Nolte & Väth, characterized by large- and medium-sized diasporas plus
2015). Projected local benefits, e.g., productivity and thus medium to high dependence on remittances. The countries
job creation that often is used as justification, have been with the largest share of forest lands are not, however,
mixed (Kleemann & Thiele, 2015; Nolte & Väth, 2015). The high in migration or dependent upon remittances. Among
potential for such conflict must reflect the large shares of the top ten countries in the world in terms of highest
global lands held under customary or community-based deforestation rates from 2000 to 2012, only China and
local regimes (IUCN, 2008), including a significant share held the Democratic Republic of Congo have high migration −
or managed by Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities but even they have low and medium dependence upon
(see chapter 1) (USAID, 2012). remittances. None of those top ten have high remittances
per capita.
As to existing plans to address the world’s growing
agricultural demands, linked also with water, within 2.1.6.4.2 Financial Standards
sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, Eastern Europe and
Central Asia, the lands said to be “available” often also Private investments also are growing and can be very
are under formal public ownership and yet used by local influential. Yet financial returns often do not recognize
groups, including indigenous communities (RRI, 2014). nature’s contributions (World Bank, 2018o). For instance,
The same issues may arise, then, since regions may suffer for sub-Saharan Africa, despite substantial risks of natural
implicit “land grabbing” by the consuming countries, via depletion, in official assessments total wealth changes are
production of agricultural exports which can threaten not considered even for large investments. Thus, natural
local food security. The “available” lands also sometimes regrowth is not valued, while short-term income from the
coincide with areas of high biodiversity. Summing up, if and degradation of nature is counted (World Bank, 2018o).
when lands are converted, justice concerns potentially add
to costs in terms of losses of ecosystem services (Sayer et International institutions can set out environmental and
al., 2008). social standards for financial institutions and transactions
that borrowers should follow throughout project cycles.
‘Water grabbing’ raises all of the same issues as above, Standards can help in doing due diligence to assess risks
again including for agriculture, as noted, and for mining (EIB, 2014; IFC, 2012; The Equator Principles Association,
or hydropower generation or often for industry (Merme 2013; World Bank, 2017b). Considering environmental,
et al., 2014; Sosa & Zwarteveen, 2012). For the irrigation social and governance (ESG) factors in principles facilitate
of cultivable land, demands have been labeled “green” risk management (Sullivan et al., 2015; van Duuren et
– i.e., extracted by the plants – or “blue” – i.e., pumped al., 2016) that with appropriate counting raises the risk-
(Dell’Angelo et al., 2014; Rulli et al., 2013). adjusted, long-term returns from investments (WEF, 2013)
and affects assessments of firms’ performance (Delmas
& Blass, 2010) and financial portfolio (Vörösmarty et al.,
2.1.6.4 Financial Flows 2018). By 2016, $23 trillion of assets were managed with
‘responsible’ strategies that could be of this type – a rise
2.1.6.4.1 Remittances of 25% since 2014 (US SIF Foundation, 2016). Some
fund managers aim to track performance with regard to
Growing financial remittances after migration, i.e., transfers the Sustainable Development Goals, while others track
back to migrants’ places of origin, can significantly affect specific social or environmental objectives (Global Impact
important outcomes for nature within the sending regions. Investing Network, 2017; GRI et al., 2015; Polasky et al.,
From 1990 to 2015, such remittances rose over 5-fold 2015). Some ideas have been agreed for such guidelines
and were particularly important for poor households (e.g. The Natural Capital Declaration, GRI Standards for
in developing countries (e.g., China, India, Philippines, Environmental Reporting; SASB Sustainability Accounting
Mexico have the largest absolute inflows of remittances Standards) (GRI et al., 2015; NCFA, 2018; SASB, 2014) but
while, as fractions, Tajikistan, Nepal, Moldova and Haiti metrics remain a major challenge.
90
2.1.6.4.3 Tax Havens 2.1.7 INDIRECT DRIVERS:

The roles of tax havens in the global outcomes for nature
are only starting to be documented, given ever larger roles GOVERNANCE – MARKET
in the global economy. Recent evidence starts to identify INTERACTIONS
possible links between the use of such jurisdictions and the
environment (Galaz et al., 2018). Funding via tax havens Certification schemes aim to inform supply chain production
has been shown to have provided 68% of foreign capital for and consumption. Market-based schemes aim to signal
Amazonian soy and beef production and to have supported consumers’ values to provide incentives for producers
70% of the vessels implicated in illegal, unreported and to shift processes (Haufler, 2003; Mayer & Gereffi, 2010;
unregulated fishing. Raynolds et al., 2007). Environmental certification exists
A CUMULATIVE SUM OF FOREST STEWARDSHIP COUNCIL (FSC)

CERTIFIED FOREST AREA (1993~2016) LOESS span=0.5
(Not area−corrected)
2.0e+08
FSC CERTIFIED FOREST AREA (HA)
1.5e+08
INCOME
Global
1− High Income
OECD
1.0e+08
3− Other high
income
4− Upper-middle
income
5− Lower-middle
5.0e+07 income
6− Low income
Visuals prepared by the IPBES

Knowledge and Data TSU based
0.0e+00 on raw data provided by indicator
holders.
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
B FISHERIES CERTIFIED BY THE MARINE STEWARDSHIP COUNCIL (MSC)

(1999~2015) LOESS span=0.5
20
MSC CERTIFIED CATCH (%)
INCOME CATEGORY
15 1− High Income
OECD
2− High Income
Oil
3− Other high
10 income
4− Upper-middle
income
5− Lower-middle
income
5
6− Low income
Visuals prepared by the IPBES

Knowledge and Data TSU
based on raw data provided by
0 indicator holders.
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
Figure 2 1 9 Temporal trends in certifications.

Cumulative sum of FSC Certified Forest Area (1993~2016); B percentage of fisheries certified by Marine Stewardship
A
Council (1999~2015); this is the sum total of all green weight catch from all certified fisheries, or the weight of landed fish before
processing (catch of whales, seals and other aquatic mammals are not included when calculating global catch to compare to
MSC fisheries as they are out of scope for MSC certification). Trends show averages from country data, using the World Bank
income categories Source: (FSC, 2017).
91
for a wide range of products − including timber (Klooster, Another challenge is to balance rigor and transparency in
2005; Molnar et al., 2011) coffee and cocoa (Raynolds et al., rule-making process and accessibility (Bush et al., 2013).
2007; Tscharntke et al., 2015), fish (Constance & Bonanno, Legitimacy is often constructed through processes that are
2000), soybean and palm oil (Schouten et al., 2012), nuts open and democratic and incorporate inputs from a variety of
and other non-timber forest products (Shanley et al., 2002), actors, including industry stakeholders. That could, however,
horticulture (Hatanaka et al., 2005), floriculture (Hall et al., generate a concern about businesses asserting their
2010), biofuels (Selfa et al., 2014) and tourism (Font et al., interests to the detriment of others (Eden, 2009; Hatanaka
2007). Certified area for forests and marine schemes has et al., 2005; Havice & Iles, 2015; Klooster, 2010). Further, if
increased greatly since 2000 (Figure 2.1.9). schemes tend to expand, including in competition among
schemes, stringency of such standards could be driven down
Standards dictate the information included within ‘labels’, (McDermott, 2012; Mutersbaugh, 2005; Taylor, 2005). In
which inform actors along the supply chain. They might addition, there may be confusion induced by the presence of
stimulate a willingness to pay on the part of consumers who multiple such schemes, including industry-led schemes that
value particular practices, as well as firms concerned about compete for clients with third-party schemes (Cashore et al.,
their brand reputations as well as political responses (Bartley, 2007) and can generate situations in which the consumers
2007; Cashore, 2002; Gereffi et al., 2001; Hatanaka et al., may not fully understand what each certification label
2005; Potoski & Prakash, 2005). Most of the environmental indicates (Bear & Eden, 2008; Yiridoe et al., 2005).
certifications utilize third-party verification. Thereby, NGOs,
scientists and environmentalists design standards and Large-scale public standard setting may then help. For
practices alongside industry actors (Cashore et al., 2004; example, the US Lacey Act or the EU’s FLEGT (Forest
Cheyns, 2011; Gereffi et al., 2001; Hatanaka et al., 2005). Yet, Law Environment, Governance and Trade Mechanism) aim
challenges have existed for achieving large impacts, suggesting to prevent imports of illegally harvested forest products.
not only further care in program design and implementation but FLEGT’s Voluntary Partnership Agreements (VPAs) are
also a rigorous evaluation of whether impacts arose. one effort, that emphasizes independent monitoring, to
collaborate with partners in source countries. To improve
One challenge is that many standards consider production forest governance, they involve non-state actors such as civil
processes, i.e., what the producers did, rather than qualities society organizations and the private sector in processes
of outputs that result or specific impacts of the processes sometimes requiring reconciliation as well as consolidation of
such as on nature, creating issues of transparency conflicting laws (Bollen & Ozinga, 2013). Each VPA includes
(Dankers & Liu, 2003). Standards aim to assess things a system to identify legal products and to license them for
including sustainability, biodiversity, ecosystems, absence import to the EU − with capacity building to help partner
of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, quality management, countries set up the licensing scheme, enforce, and where
and sociopolitical attributes such as labor and indigenous necessary reform laws. Legal assurance systems (LAS) are
outcomes (Badgley et al., 2007; Bear & Eden, 2008; to distinguish illegally produced forest products, with five
Klooster, 2010). Yet, this may present difficulties in measuring elements: a definition of legal, in light of producing country
the outcomes, or associating them with certification. Many laws; a traceability system; a system to verify compliance
schemes also remain limited in spatial scope. These can with the legality definition and traceability system; a licensing
make it more difficult to link such schemes with observed scheme; and independent audit capacity.
differences in, for instance, regional forests and fisheries
(Ebeling & Yasué, 2009; Rametsteiner & Simula, 2003). Guidance for implementation was sought via consultation
with major wood-producing countries (Ghana, Cameroon,
One additional challenge is to avoid marginalization of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Central African
smaller producers. Standards developed for large-scale Forest Commission (COMIFAC), Malaysia, Indonesia and
producers or consumer preferences in ‘northern’ countries Vietnam) (Hajjar, 2015; Tegegne, 2016) and VPAs have been
may be difficult to apply within small-scale or developing signed with Ghana, Cameroon, Central African Republic,
contexts (Foley & McCay, 2014; González & Nigh, 2005). Republic of Congo, Liberia and Indonesia − while six
Complex standards may impose requirements that are more countries have been in negotiations (Côte D’Ivoire,
harder for small-scale producers (Selfa et al., 2014; Tovar the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Guyana,
et al., 2005), who may not participate in shaping them Honduras and Laos). Indonesia has done the most such
(Cheyns, 2014; Köhne, 2014; Vandergeest, 2007). There licensing and monitoring, licensing timber and wood-
may be costs that smaller-scale and developing country product shipments to the EU and applying standards to
producers with limited capital cannot cover (Clark & shipments to other countries. Some countries that have not
Martínez, 2016; Pérez-Ramírez et al., 2012). Their costs yet started such licensing have improved in transparency,
may even be higher (Blackman & Rivera, 2011; Lyngbaek et while acquiring significant skills, knowledge, and capacities
al., 2001; Oosterveer et al., 2014) yet in some cases, they in terms of these FLEGT systems for sharing information,
receive political or social support (Quaedvlieg et al., 2014). monitoring and traceability of timber.
92
If rights are not clear, respected, and enforced, certification’s

outcomes can look very different. Outcomes of the types
of certification we considered above appear to depend on GOVERNANCE –
effective rights. Forest certification, such as by the Forest
Stewardship Council (FSC), considers logging within
LOCAL COMMUNITY
concessions or communities with effective rights – such COORDINATION
as collective ejido tenure in Mexico − granted by the state
but not always strongly enforced). Studying FSC in Peru, Commons or collective property system arrangements
Rico et al. (2017) find that where concessions exhibit lower are present across the globe in spite of the historical
deforestation than surrounding areas, suggesting some challenges and pressures. Today, they often retain some of
effective enforcement, certification had a small positive their traditional meaning, as part of collective management
effect upon forest conditions. However, where concessions arrangement of common-pool resources, yet they have
had more forest loss than outside, certification has not responded to various changes. To an extent, awareness of
had significant effect. It also has none within Cameroon our dependence upon common-pool resources has brought
(Panlasigui et al., 2018), where PAs do not fare better than attention to the centrality of property regimes − and their
outside, suggesting significant limits on forest enforcement. overlaps − for issues including water governance, waste
From these examples, it seems that effective rights management, congestion, landscape management, and
enforcement complements certifications. climate change.
A LOW INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES
10% 6%
4% 18%
86% 76%
AREA DESIGNATED FOR INDIGENOUS AREA OWNED BY INDIGENOUS AREA OWNED BY GOVERNMENTS OR
PEOPLES AND LOCAL COMMUNITIES PEOPLES AND LOCAL COMMUNITIES PRIVATE INDIVIDUALS
B 71.4%
70%
61.3%
60%
50%
40%
30%
24.0%
20% 18.2%
10% 8.7%
6.1% 7.4%
3.0%
0% 2002 2013
Administered by Designated Owned by IPs Owned by Firms
Government for IPs & Communities & Individuals
& Communities
Figure 2 1 10 “Recent status and temporal change for a number of categories of common land
(versus other lands):
A area under communal tenure regimes for low and middle income countries (including lower-middle and upper-middle income
countries), and B % change in statutory forest land tenure in LMICs (low and middle income countries) from 2002 to 2013.
Categories shown: area designated for Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities, area owned by Indigenous Peoples and
Local Communities and the areas owned by governments or by private firms or individuals. Source: (RRI, 2014).
93
Historically, and currently in many regions of the world, Shivakoti, 2008) and merits additional understanding too.
rural land was owned and governed by local communities Further cases of common-pool resources suggest that −
− a significant share under varied customary-property- without privatization or nationalization − resource users
regime arrangements (see chapter 1 for area estimates). do engage in collective actions to create local institutions
State recognition of legal rights applies to only a to limit inefficient uses of natural resources, including
fraction of the lands (Wall, 2014). Without recognition of in Indigenous Communities (Acheson, 1988; Baland &
legal land rights, many Indigenous Peoples and Local Platteau, 1996; Berkes, 1986; McKean, 1986; McKean &
Communities are vulnerable to direct dispossessions Cox, 1982; Ostrom, 1990; Poteete & Ostrom, 2004; Tang,
and, thus, losses of livelihoods and culture. Customary 1992; Undargaa, 2017; Wade, 1988). Motivations for doing
property systems have often failed to stand up to external so can be clear when locals get direct resource benefits
pressures related to colonization settlement, expansion of and, thus, are vulnerable to any unsustainable trends
commodity production for agriculture, or forestry, mining, (Costanza et al., 1998; Eerkens, 1999; Kelbessa, 2013;
infrastructure extensions, government programs, and Ola-Adams, 1998; Shengji, 1993; Wade, 1988).
conservation programs.
Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities have an
Several international frameworks have tried to address advantage in designing local institutions, given knowledge
these issues, including the International Labor Organization of local ecological and social systems (Berkes et al., 1998;
Convention 169 (ILO, 1989), UN Declaration on the Rights Colding & Folke, 2001; Comberti et al., 2015; Gadgil et
of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP), and FAO Voluntary al., 1993; Nakashima et al., 2012; Ostrom, 1990; Tang,
Guidelines on the Responsible Governance of Tenure of 1994). Furthermore, as locals cross paths more frequently,
Land, Fisheries, and Forests (VGGT) (FAO, 2012b). Also, they can monitor and enforce at lower costs, while also
in many regions communities have gained rights to land communicating expectations (Berkes, 1986; Ostrom,
resources (Figure 2.1.10), especially within Latin America 1990) and imposing local social costs for violations of
(Agrawal et al., 2008; Sunderlin et al., 2008; White & Martin, agreements. Also, without local participation in the crafting
2002). Across developing countries, it has been estimated of such rules, constraints may lack legitimacy and credibility
that around 27% of the forests are owned or designated and, thereby, be inadequate for conservation (Costanza et
for management by local communities, with rights to over al., 1998).
200 million hectares transferred (or just recognized) since
1985. In 2008, globally 24% of forests were owned by Naturally, past governance institutions have not all been
communities; 6% owned by governments but used by successful, and that reveals the roles of information, values,
communities; 9% in private property; and 61% in public group size, boundaries, cultural and social homogeneity,
hands (Sunderlin et al., 2008). and leadership that lowers transaction costs for interactions
(Baland & Platteau, 1999; Ostrom, 1990; Wade, 1988).
Securing collective rights and institutions has been Learning across recent decades highlighted that critical
considered as a key underlying component in sustained contributions to nature, and livelihoods, have required
use and management, as communities change with shared norms, trust, and networks which can be developed
external and internal circumstances (Ostrom, 2000). through time and effort in reaching agreements (Agrawal,
There are no statistically representative global analyses of 2001; McKean, 1999; Meinzen-Dick, 2014; Pretty & Smith,
effects on nature of community governance, yet there are 2004; Schlager & Ostrom, 1992). These have been limited
observations from many case studies: e.g., using data from by biophysical features, such as size and mobility (Becker
80 cases of forest commons across Asia, Africa, and Latin & Ostrom, 1995; Schlager et al., 1994), and social features
America, Chhatre and Agrawal (2009) associated more like hierarchical heterogeneity and inequality, unless the
local rule-making autonomy with higher carbon storage well-endowed actors make substantial contributions
and livelihood benefits. This can occur because if the (Andersson & Agrawal, 2011; Baland & Platteau, 1999;
sustainability of a locally-relevant common-pool resource Blomquist, 1988; Dasgupta & Beard, 2007; Olson, 1965).
system is threatened, local resource users may invest to Growing global demands also generate challenges (Agrawal
create new institutions to better local governance. & Yadama, 1997; Chhatre & Agrawal, 2008) with new
markets establishing economic relationships lacking prior
The recognition that local resource users sometimes norms (Berkes et al., 2006; Nietschmann, 1972; Richards,
craft effective governance has contributed to increased 1997; Smith et al., 2010). For instance, historically, effective
enthusiasm for the devolution of responsibilities to local marine regimes were far from market centers (Cinner,
communities for the management of nature (seen within 2005; Cinner et al., 2007), yet some institutions have
Figure 2.1.10). Community-based management after responded to the payoffs from governance to confront even
decentralization also can be successful (Amede et al., higher external market pressures (Alcorn & Lynch, 1994;
2007; Gibson et al., 2005; Kearney et al., 2007; Kellert Aswani, 1999, 2002; Bauer & Giles, 2002). That included
et al., 2000; Leach et al., 1999; Ribot, 2004; Webb & state support of local collective rights which help to hold
94
off commercial interests (Dupar & Badenoch, 2002; Pfaff &

Robalino, 2017; Ribot, 2004; Richards, 1997) − while not
being a panacea (Hinojosa, 2013). GOVERNANCE – STATES
Contributions to nature and livelihoods depend upon
2.1.9.1 Adjusting Development
institutional details such as clarity of rights and congruence
between such rules and the characteristics of the resource
Policies
in question. Members of communities have responded
2.1.9.1.1 Property Rights & Resource-
better to such voluntary limitations when they have
participated in rule design and modification, as well as when
Use Rights
monitoring is linked to punishments. Sanctions have been Property and resource-use rights, which depend at least
better accepted when matching the seriousness of rule in part on the state, affect outcomes for nature in many
violations, and the context, with mechanisms for resolution ways (Fenske, 2011; Platteau, 2000). Such rights arise
of conflicts (Cox et al., 2010). State legitimization of the through both formal and informal institutions, with de jure
processes helped (Koppen et al., 2008) – but did not always official rights and de facto effective rights present in different
occur (Bowles & Gintis, 2002; Cudney-Bueno & Basurto, forms and combinations, and with varied impacts (Arnot et
2009; Sarin, 1993; Utting, 1993; Young, 2001). al., 2011; Robinson et al., 2018). Formal titling of land, for
instance, is not always sufficient to promote either private
Interactions between local and non-local institutions have investment or conservation (Holland et al., 2017; Sills et
also mattered, because the ecosystems cross social al., 2017). Evidence suggests that resource-tenure security
and ecological scales (Armitage et al., 2007; Berkes, is impacted by transport costs, for instance, and thus by
2008; Brown, 2003; Finkbeiner & Basurto, 2015; Hovik & distance: remote areas are harder to monitor and, hence,
Reitan, 2004; McKay, 2014). Fisheries provide examples are more open to unsustainable harvesting and illegal
of interactions between states and local institutions, invasion and harvesting (Albers & Robinson, 2013; Robinson
with innovations over time. From the 1960s into the et al., 2008). Understanding these apparent trends in past
1980s, small-scale fisheries were seen as failing to realize impact can guide uses of rights within conservation.
economic potential and food security (Berkes & Kislalioglu,
1989; Brainerd, 1989; Thompson, 1961), so governance Processes of establishing and defending rights are critical
should “rationalize this outdated sector” (Proude, 1973; to outcomes for nature and wellbeing. One key process
Rack, 1962) by moving away from the “inefficient traditional is decentralization, which is ongoing. Decentralization
practices”. That guided aid (Basurto et al., 2017) focused often transfers burdens of enforcing rights to local actors
on raising production via improved technologies and – agencies or users (Larson, 2002; Larson & Soto, 2008) −
infrastructure (World Bank, 2004). By the 1990s, after but sometimes also augments local property and resource-
some notable collapses, over-exploitation became use rights (Coleman & Fleischman, 2012). Like rights in
the focus for governance. Lack of rights (Campleman, general, decentralization’s net impact is specific to (quite
1973), mismanagement (Milich, 1999), destructive gear variable) contexts, e.g., in Indonesia a recent effort affected
(Christensen, 2018), poverty and overpopulation (Pauly, forests and livelihoods as a function of many characteristics
1997), urbanization, and globalization all were highlighted, of communities (Sills et al., 2017). In some settings,
alongside a lack of data. Large-scale offshore industrial collective rights for groups may work better for conservation
catches competed with small fishermen, as well as than do individual rights – although possibly overlapping with
governance aiming to restrict excess effort plus damaging them (Baland & Platteau, 1999). Relative impact depends
methods such as trawls that scrape seabeds, longlines on the fraction of households with use rights, the area and
that trap seabirds, and non-selective nets that catch fish profitability of forest, and species present (Alix-Garcia et al.,
not consumed and damage protected species (Basurto 2005; Baland & Platteau, 1996; Barsimantov, 2010; Baynes
et al., 2017). This new framing shifted investment towards et al., 2015; DiGiano et al., 2013; Griscom et al., 2009).
research on fish stocks (World Bank, 2014) and halted Policy interactions also matter. Other policies such as recent
direct lending to fisheries for over a decade, until the World agricultural subsidies and trade policy in Mexico, allowing
Bank re-entered with lending that was itself focused upon timber imports from China, undermined domestic forestry
improving organization and governance. profits and responses to collective rights (Ellis, 2014).
2.1.9.1.2 Transportation Investments (by

context)
Economic development is influenced by the spatial pattern
of roads, which lower transport costs. Globally, transport
costs have fallen by ~40% across the last three decades,
95
yielding aggregate economic growth as well as the spatial roads affect wildlife and ecosystems (Forman & Alexander,
concentration of economic activity (World Bank, 2009). 1998; Laurance et al., 2009). Many authors warn that
Highways have raised economic growth (Banerjee et al., expected global investments, up to 25 million kilometers by
2012; Bird & Straub, 2014; Storeygard, 2016), as well as 2050, will surely exacerbate such ecosystem losses (Caro et
total employment (Michaels, 2008) and industrial efficiency al., 2014; Laurance et al., 2014, 2015).
(Datta, 2012; Ghani et al., 2016) – often, at least in part,
through their impacts upon cities. Yet the magnitudes and even the signs or directions of
transport investments’ impacts varied by: the types of
Some studies have focused upon past rural economic roads; the stage of prior economic development; and
impacts of transport investments. Those are important for economic activities involved (Mertens et al., 2002; Pfaff et al.,
trading off with ecological impacts, such as the impacts of 2016). While the stories that have dominated the literature
roads on forests, which often are higher at forest margins and consciousness, including studies of large tracts of
than in highly developed areas (Pfaff et al., 2018). Studies undisturbed forest with minimal property rights (Ferretti-
find economic gains in agricultural productivity (Fan & Gallon & Busch, 2014; Rudel et al., 2009a), on average
Zhang, 2004; Zhang & Fan, 2004), reduction in poverty, and suggest potential for high impacts, studies of actual variation
increased consumption (Asher & Novosad, 2016; Dercon et in past impacts show that with high prior development,
al., 2009; Gibson & Rozelle, 2003; Khandker et al., 2009) − road-induced deforestation is actually lower (Andersen et
plus labor shifts from agricultural to non-agricultural sectors al., 2002; Pfaff et al., 2007). These trends are suggestive
(Asher & Novosad, 2016; Gollin & Rogerson, 2010). Another of ways to limit deforestation by confining new transport
rural impact has been better access to credit and financial to existing developed areas (Laurance et al., 2014; Pfaff
services (Binswanger et al., 1993) – though we must allow et al., 2016). In extensively settled, non-frontier areas, for
that road placements often responded to other conditions, example in India and China, roads investments have even
so causally identifying impacts can be difficult (Banerjee et lowered deforestation, if roads encouraged the transition
al., 2012; van de Walle, 2009). That restricts the quality of from agricultural to urban sectors (Deng et al., 2011; Kaczan,
impacts evidence (Dulac, 2013; Khandker et al., 2009). 2016) and to plantations (Deng et al., 2011; Kaczan, 2016).
Yet the apparent trends suggest important heterogeneity 2.1.9.1.3 Subsidies to Fuels
within economic impacts from transport. Roads have
concentrated or dispersed economic activity, depending Subsidies to fossil fuels have been highly prevalent at least
on the economic conditions. Cities connected to ports, or across recent decades, featuring both frequency across
other cities, often benefitted more from trade and access to space and persistence over time, and all of that in spite of
markets, as have rural areas along transport corridors, while quite enormous costs. The International Monetary Fund
unconnected rural areas have lost activities (Bird & Straub, states a cost of US$5 trillion – including the externality cost
2014; Chandra & Thompson, 2000; Rephann & Isserman, of nature’s degradation − with coal accounting for 52%
1994). In addition, labor will concentrate to earn higher of post-tax subsidies, petroleum for 33% and natural gas
wages stemming from economies of scale to human capital for 10% (Coady et al., 2015). Davis (2016) estimates that
(World Bank, 2009). In Brazil, for instance, frontier roads there have been US$44 billion just in direct costs from
have promoted settlement in many rural areas (Fearnside, carbon dioxide emissions, alongside traffic congestion,
1987) yet, in those regions, urban population growth has local pollution and also accidents – while noting that the
been higher than rural rates. In India, given extensively subsidies have greatly reduced relevant actors’ incentives
settled rural areas new roads led people into cities (Asher for generating clean innovations. Davis (2014) estimates
& Novosad, 2016). When considering policy to balance additional large costs of ‘deadweight loss’ even without any
multiple SDGs, the varied trends by context are key. environmental costs.
Transport investments – and in particular roads investments, By all accounts, however, it has been significantly (and
which differ in impacts from rail − also, have driven large persistently) difficult to eliminate these policies that are
ecosystem losses. Early studies of road impacts mostly ‘lose-lose’ in the sense of a worse environment and worse
considered some economically less developed settings economic efficiency. That seems to be due to enormous
or “frontier” forests (Chomitz & Gray, 1996; Cropper et al., public opposition concerning the possibility of their removal,
2001; Nelson & Hellerstein, 1997; Pfaff, 1999). For that including by affected groups and those advocating on
broad context, roads expanded the areas where agriculture behalf of the poor. However, it was shown that putting
is profitable, causing further deforestation in the absence of into practice a classic adjustment from economics
institutional or policy constraints. Such study of deforestation textbooks could actually separate equity concerns from the
impacts is summarized in reviews (Angelsen & Kaimowitz, enormous efficiency losses: cash transfers to the poor can
1999; Ferretti-Gallon & Busch, 2014; Geist & Lambin, 2002; compensate for price rises within any reform to improve key
Rudel et al., 2009a). Others have summarized trends in how incentives (e.g., Salehi-Isfahani, 2016 on Iran).
96
2.1.9.2 Increasing Conservation locations and enforcement, can have more impact (Nelson
& Chomitz, 2011; Pfaff et al., 2014). If PA impacts are higher
Policies
under pressure, that suggests integration of protection with
regional development (Mora & Sale, 2011; Stoll-kleemann et
2.1.9.2.1 Protected Areas and IPLC
al., 2006), e.g., siting the PAs alongside new roads (Pfaff et
Lands/Participation al., 2015a, 2015b) and optimizing road siting with impacts
Governments have long created protected areas (PAs) to on nature and economies in mind (Andam et al., 2010). PAs
limit activities imperiling conservation. On the order of 15% often imply local cost but also can offer local tourism benefit
of terrestrial and freshwater environments and ~7% of the (Andam et al., 2010; Robalino & Villalobos, 2015).
marine realm are under some form of protection (UNEP-
WCMC & IUCN, 2016), making protection the leading Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities have long
strategy to date for conserving biodiversity and ecosystem protected, and currently conserve, many ecosystems
services. Protected areas were developed to preserve (see chapter 2.2) and indigenous lands have often had
wilderness areas (Ervin et al., 2010; Rodrigues et al., 2004). consequential impacts, sometimes more than nearby PAs.
However, the historically top-down approach to protection Many IPLC approaches to conservation have been scaled
has evolved towards more inclusive conservation approaches up, yet opportunities for participation in global and national
(Berkes, 2010) − with protection categories ranging from policy processes have been limited for IPLCs, although
strict (I–IV) to sustainable use (V–VI) (Dudley, 2008). The latter increasing in international organizations such as the CBD.
category includes “multiple-use” areas, which sometimes Participation in national biodiversity strategies and action
have bottom-up origins (Pfaff & Robalino, 2017). Recent plans (NBSAPs) has been limited to date, with country
decades saw considerable expansions, globally, in PA exceptions. Since 2004, numerous IPLCs have identified
numbers and area (UNEP-WCMC & IUCN, 2016). Category concrete actions for adding important principles into national
VI grew most and it is the largest at ~40% of total PA area, policies and programs for sustainable use of biological
though stricter top-down categories II and IV make up ~27% diversity (Forest Peoples Programme, 2011), e.g., the
and ~13% (Juffe-Bignoli et al., 2014), respectively. Also, the Plan of Action on Customary Sustainable Use (adopted in
distribution of protection is not equal across the regions of 2014). Many IPLCs are determined to play an active role in
the globe. For instance, one quarter of the terrestrial regions implementing this Plan through 2020 and well beyond. For
and over one half of marine regions are under 5% protected example, a global indigenous coalition from the Amazon,
(Butchart et al., 2012; UNEP-WCMC & IUCN, 2016). Central America, the Congo Basin and Indonesia pledged
to protect 400 million ha of forests (LPAA, 2014) and the
Challenges for very significant impacts from PAs, though, Palangka Raya Declaration on Deforestation and Rights
arise in both enforcement and siting. Deforestation does of Forest Peoples has concrete policy recommendations
occur within PAs, although usually at lower rates relative to to address habitat loss (Forest Peoples Programme,
the PAs’ surroundings, indicating imperfect enforcement 2014). Amazonian Kayapo people in Brazil are conserving
(at least for strict PAs), with losses of biodiversity and 105,000 km2 of forests in a frontier characterized by heavy
other services (Coad et al., 2015). Enforcement clearly is deforestation due to agriculture and pasture expansion,
critical. Also, it is not always better in strict PAs (Albers, illegal gold miners, logging and infrastructure. They also
2010; Ferraro et al., 2013; Fox et al., 2012; Laurance led (unsuccessful) pressures on the World Bank and other
et al., 2012; Nolte et al., 2013). Restrictive marine PAs, international financing institutions to stop loans for a mega-
which are managed by states, have been effective within dam on the Rio Xingu (Zimmerman, 2010). In Kapuas Hulu
countries which have stronger legal frameworks. Bottom- (West Kalimantan, Indonesia) indigenous Dayak peoples
up approaches can require community leadership to contribute to conserving forest, river and lake habitats that
succeed, plus support from NGOs and private entities are under threat from oil palm (Colchester et al., 2014;
(Jones et al., 2013). They may succeed in part due to lower Porter-Bolland et al., 2012).
monitoring costs.
Given this history, and mixed trends, policymakers and
Protected areas have had greater impacts when they scholars are reconsidering roles of local communities
effectively limited higher resource pressures. Where in the context of expansions of both resource use and
pressures are low, PA outcomes may be similar to their conservation. Communities’ rights have been shown to
surroundings, i.e., impacts can be low and even zero when generate incentives for local protection, monitoring, and
outcomes are undistinguishable from similar unprotected enforcement (Berkes et al., 2006). Empowered local
landscapes (Joppa & Pfaff, 2010; Nelson et al., 2010; Pfaff fishers have been seen to be more likely to comply with
et al., 2009). One clear reason PAs are in lower-pressure regulations (Bennett & Dearden, 2014). Indigenous and
sites is that local actors push back against protection, local knowledge, including from women (Agarwal, 2009),
as they see PAs as a source only of local costs. This is has aided conservation success (Brooks et al., 2012; Jones
less the case for multiple-use PAs which, depending on et al., 2013; Stoll-kleemann et al., 2006). Policies that
97
do not undermine local ownership but instead guarantee Yet, if a service is a priority, e.g., if drinking water or the
local involvement in all of design, implementation and electricity from hydropower are scarce (Brouwer et al.,
benefits (Bennett & Dearden, 2014) have contributed to 2010), then actors have targeted influential lands upstream
conservation, as peoples understand their livelihoods of dams or cities and utilized higher payments to overcome
depend on maintenance of the environment including via competing pressures. When a service such as clean water
strong organizational and technical capabilities within rural is an input to a good with economic importance (e.g.,
communities (Sim & Hilmi, 1987). Many forests and other soda or beer), again targeting and payment sometimes
biodiverse habitats are within IPLCs’ lands and territories are higher. Further, some designs could help states to
(FPP et al., 2016), overlapping areas of high biodiversity and reveal private opportunity cost (Ajayi et al., 2012; Ferraro,
biocultural diversity (Sobrevila, 2008; Toledo, 2013). Yet, 2008; Polasky et al., 2014 using auctions; Sheriff et al.,
there are still limited data about local farmers’ and livestock 2009 using observable data) and how resulting surpluses
keepers’ relations to genetic diversity, in particular for are shared is important, while some authors have shown
species with cultural or economic values, such as traditional that not differentiating payments between regions has
medicines or non-timber forest products (CBD, 2014). efficiency losses (Ezzine-de-Blas & Dutilly, 2017; Lewis &
Plantinga, 2007; Lewis et al., 2009, for instance consider
2.1.9.2.2 Payments for Ecosystem fragmentation). In China, while ‘PES’ were perhaps less
voluntary, as the state prioritized large areas per flood risks,
Services and Other Incentives
the compensation appeared to cover local opportunity costs
On private lands, payments for ecosystem services (Uchida et al., 2007). In some settings in Europe and in the
(PES) offer compensation for the voluntary acceptance of US, large PES seemed to align with private sector goals of
restrictions to reduce degradation, such as shifts in land transitions in production to ecologically friendly systems,
uses or polluting practices. PES are conditional on beneficial yet market actors may want assurance about permanence.
actions or outcomes. Thus, they generate incentives for Other challenges include the need to target only some
voluntary provision of ecosystem services by varied private participants, without triggering negative fairness reactions
actors (see also chapters 3 and 6). Payments are made (Alpízar & Cárdenas, 2016; Mercado et al., 2017).
by other private actors (Coase, 1960) or by states, as
representatives (Ferraro & Kiss, 2002), based on outcomes One way to raise the incentives for ecosystem services
like standing forests or related practices (Sattler & Matzdorf, suppliers is to allow multiple ecosystem services to be
2013). To date, most PES schemes have used action-based sold on the basis of a single shift in land use. In Bolivia, for
rather than result-based conditionality (Engel et al., 2008; instance, Acuerdos Reciprocos por El Agua yielded both
FAO, 2007), if they actually use conditions for payment at water and biodiversity outcomes (Wunder & Albán, 2008).
all (Ezzine-de-Blas et al., 2016). The payments approach Payment for one service does not, then, offer the socially
makes sense when the buyers’ willingness to pay is above efficient ‘price’ to align the incentives. Private actors should
sellers’ opportunity costs – else those providers would not face incentives based on all of the ecosystem-service gains
supply ES (Nelson et al., 2008; Perrot-Maître, 2006). These due to their acts. Thus ‘stacking’, or suppliers receiving a
payments aim to align private goals with social goals (Dobbs separate payment for each service, can be more socially
& Pretty, 2008; Muradian et al., 2010). Governments may efficient for PES programs − although not for all regulatory
use them alongside PAs to lower local costs and spillovers, structures (Pfaff & Robalino, 2017).
relative to pure mandates alone. For multiple-use PAs, that
could even involve providing PES inside PAs – which de Another challenge has been uncertainties, given variations
facto can yield additionality if restrictions alone were being in species or other ecosystem-service benefits across
rejected (see Tuanmu et al., 2016 for Wolong in China). locations. Planners may wish to target an ecosystem
service, yet monitoring could involve high costs. Hily &
To date, though, PES additional impacts beyond baseline Gégout (2016) study PES designs with unobserved costs
are not so encouraging. PES often have been implemented and benefits which could be considered for biodiversity
where opportunity costs are medium to low (Tacconi, 2012), conservation policy − alongside PAs plus regulations like
just as for PAs, albeit in this case driven more by private the Natura 2000 (N2K) policy that covers 18% of the EU’s
decisions about which lands to volunteer for inclusion. terrestrial surface (or, generally, “command-and-control”
Because information about opportunity costs is private, PES like the EU’s Habitats Directive and the US Endangered
designers face a challenge (Börner et al., 2016; Hejnowicz Species Act). Incentives-based contracts for biodiversity
et al., 2014; Sattler & Matzdorf, 2013), since actors with conservation in forests have been implemented in
low profits from clearing forests more frequently volunteer EU states including Denmark, Germany and Slovakia
to accept a payment for leaving lands in forest. Thus, (Anthon et al., 2010; Ecochard et al., 2017). Hanley et al.
payments for standing forest have had limited impacts. (2012) and de Vries and Hanley (2016) review studies of
Studies suggest low impacts of PES (Robalino & Pfaff, 2013 incentives for biodiversity with varied costs and benefits
for Costa Rica). Efficient impact may require targeting. from conservation, hidden information (asymmetric
98
across actors such as their private costs), and stochastic Collective contracting could face a challenge when sanctions
elements as well (Armsworth et al., 2012). Targeting are required to enforce compliance, as has become apparent
based on costs and benefits has been suggested for “non-point” emissions, where emissions cannot be linked
(Babcock et al., 1997; Duke et al., 2013; Naidoo et al., to people due to monitoring costs. While schemes exist if
2006). Experiences have showed that an understanding only aggregate pollution is measured (Alpízar et al., 2004;
that allows planning around such heterogeneity allows Cason & Gangadharan, 2013; Cochard et al., 2005; Poe et
gains (Bamière et al., 2013, for example, compare al., 2004; Segerson, 1988; Spraggon, 2002, 2004; Vossler
an auction to a uniform subsidy in order to reach a et al., 2007; Xepapadeas, 1991) in practice they are not
specific configuration of lands). Auctions have been adopted − partially due to a lack of fairness, as people are
investigated (Fooks et al., 2015; Schilizzi & Latacz- punished for others’ acts. Yet such an approach can work
Lohmann, 2007) that consider not only costs but also with strong collective function (Kaczan et al., 2017).
benefit-cost ratios (Che, 1993; Latacz-Lohmann & der
Hamsvoort, 1997). The efficiency from targeted auctions 2.1.9.2.3 Choosing Policy Instruments
depends on the relative variability of costs and benefits,
as well as their correlation (Ferraro, 2003), however, Many instruments have been used to either support or
and any implementation assumes states have accurate regulate activities that affect nature, both incentives and
knowledge, which may not hold for biodiversity. restrictions. For instance, current policy debates consider
a carbon tax (a “price”) which does not dictate a specific
For this domain, once again policies have considered process or technology, as well as restrictions on level of
collectives, or groups, attempting to apply lessons from output. When quantities have been restricted, sometimes
common property settings, as 27% of forests in developing “cap-and-trade” regulations have started with a limit – e.g.,
countries are under collective title and this percentage on total fish extracted or total emissions – that is broken up
may increase with devolution (Agrawal et al., 2008; Molnar into individual limits, which individual actors are allowed to
et al., 2011). Private rights and state enforcement have trade flexibly among each other. Firms that innovate need
not always succeeded (Dietz et al., 2003). Positive group fewer emissions permits and, thus, could sell permits to
examples exist for: forests (Pagdee et al., 2006); irrigation other firms – creating an incentive to innovate.
infrastructure (Wade, 1985); fisheries (Acheson, 1988;
Feeney et al., 1990); and pasture (Moritz et al., 2013). While the implementation of these kinds of policies has often
Communication and trust are key elements (Hackett et assumed ‘perfect information’, a fundamental challenge
al., 1994; Ostrom, 2000; Pretty, 2003). Inequality hinders arises with various types of uncertainty and other deficient
collaboration and participation, yet gains are lower for information. Weitzman (1974) considered uncertainty in
the socioeconomically disadvantaged (Agrawal & Gupta, regulations’ costs and benefits, finding that the best policies
2005; Kumar, 2002). In PES for collective titles and considered relative sensitivity of the costs and the benefits.
decision making (Hayes et al., 2017; Kerr et al., 2014), A cap policy allowed costs to vary, while a price policy (via a
i.e., when contracting with groups of relevant landholders, tax) allows amounts, e.g., emissions to vary. Thus, when the
responsibilities and rewards are collective and communities benefits of regulations are very sensitive at a threshold, it has
motivate members using internal governance to address been deemed better to be sure of quantities through caps
challenges such as free-riding. A limited literature suggests (using trading for cost flexibility). However, if regulations’
collective PES could help in rule setting (Hayes et al., 2015, costs were sensitive, as is the economy, it has been deemed
2017), attitudes towards rules (Sommerville et al., 2010), better to keep a handle on the costs, by using taxes. This
and, ultimately, sustainable resource use (Clements et al., has all been applied for different uncertainties (Fishelson,
2010) − especially when local actors are involved in the 1976; Stranlund & Ben-Haim, 2008; Yohe, 1978) and non-
designs of programs (Cavalcanti et al., 2010; Kaczan et al., linearities in costs and benefits (Kelly, 2005; Yohe, 1978).
2017; Walker et al., 2000).
Pre-existing collective arrangements have been important 2.1.9.3 Equity Considerations

in PES, leveraging members’ existing collective motivations
(Muradian, 2013; Muradian et al., 2010; Porras et al., 2008), 2.1.9.3.1 Wealth-based and Race-based
and facilitating the coordination with intermediaries (Jack et Differences
al., 2008). Collective contracts can help due to lower per-
participant costs, given economies of scale in monitoring Equity is an important, yet complex aspect of policy related
(Kaczan et al., 2017) and lower transactions costs with to economic development and nature. For regulations
fewer large contracts (Kerr et al., 2014). Also, in terms of like emissions limits, with permits trading for efficiency,
ecosystem-service benefits, contracts which cover larger distributional outcomes have varied greatly (Bento, 2013;
areas can of habitat can match needs of species (Swallow & OECD, 2006). For instance, regulations may unequally
Meinzen-Dick, 2009). burden low income laborers – who face additional effects if
99
firms shift into capital (Fullerton & Heutel, 2007; Fullerton & by citizens is hard to know, although the lower-income
Monti, 2013), or employment shifts sectors (Bento, 2013), households seem less willing to pay due to limited income.
such as in the US post-1970s due to the Clean Air Act Second, heterogeneous behavioural responses generated
(Greenstone, 2002; Walker, 2013). Political implications of heterogeneous impact from policies, e.g., changes in
policy costs draw increasing attention (Bento, 2013; Bento exposure risks, even if policy was “provided equally” (Bento,
et al., 2005; Fullerton, 2011; Kolstad, 2014; Parry et al., 2013; OECD, 2006).
2006; Pizer & Sexton, 2017). Looking ahead, based upon
past efforts, policy revenues from pollution taxes or auctions Trade-offs based on heterogeneities across actors also
of permits may invested in reducing other taxes (Bento & arise when a few small producers are more efficient, putting
Jacobsen, 2007; Dinan, 2012; Metcalf, 1999, 2008; Parry, efficiency and equity in tension (Birkenbach et al., 2017;
1995; “revenue recycling” in Poterba, 1991b) or in tax Brandt, 2005; Brinson & Thunberg, 2016; Da-Rocha &
credits or specific programs for lower-income households. Sempere, 2017; Grafton et al., 2000; Homans & Wilen,
2005; Olson, 2011). Transferable fishing quotas (ITQ) have
In evaluating equity implications of the environment policies offered examples, as efficiency may be high if a fleet has
put into place during past decades, challenges remain fewer vessels − avoiding ‘overcapitalization’ − yet that
for calculating benefits and costs. First, willingness to pay favours large industrial producers over artisans. Small-scale
Box 2 1 3 United States, examples of inequalities in exposures to environmental quality.
Scholars have illustrated equity issues concerning, for example, to face higher pollution, so as to lower their costs, given lower
chemical facilities’ toxic emissions (Ash & Fetter, 2004; Mohai incomes. Further, adding resource amenities or reducing
et al., 2009) and cumulative health risks from multiple pollutants environmental dis-amenities, which yields higher rents, could
(Morello-Frosch & Shenassa, 2006; Morello-Frosch et al., 2011; help local owners but hurt renters.
Sadd et al., 2011; Su et al., 2009), as well as for environmental
amenities, such as grocery stores and more healthful foods Unequal exposures over space and groups can be due to public
(Hilmers et al., 2012; Morland et al., 2002), parks (Boone et al., choices, for instance in the US for communities struggling against
2009; Sister et al., 2010), and overall tree cover (Heynen et al., hazardous waste incinerators and dumpsites (Bullard, 2000;
2006; Landry & Chakraborty, 2009; Schwarz et al., 2015). Cole & Foster, 2001) and solid waste facilities (Pellow, 2004).
Public zoning choices interact with immobility if the dis-amenities
There are debates over how best to document disparities, for drive out those who can afford to move (Silver, 2007; Taylor,
risks and amenities (Chakraborty et al., 2011; Mohai et al., 2014), although political inclusion in environmental decisions
2009; Mohai & Saha, 2006), yet race- and income- and wealth- is a core plank of environmental justice − indeed the definition
based disparities appear to have persisted in varied forms. of environmental justice for the USA Environmental Protection
Crowder & Downey (2010) found that, at neighborhood level, Agency (EPA) is: “fair treatment and meaningful involvement of all
black and Latino households were more likely to experience people, regardless of race, color, national origin, or income, with
high levels of proximate industrial pollution – and across respect to the development, implementation, and enforcement of
levels of income. Varied case studies document communities’ environmental laws, regulations, and policies” (US Environmental
struggles against lead smelters (Bullard, 2000), toxic chemical Protection Agency, 2016, 2018). However, in considering the past
facilities (Purifoy, 2013), concentrated animal feed operations trends in placements of dis-amenities, the EPA failed to issue a
(Wing et al., 2000), oil refineries (Lerner & Bullard, 2006) and single finding of racial discrimination in the permitting of hazardous
cumulative impacts from multiple polluters (Sze, 2007). facilities under the Civil Rights Act (US Environmental Protection
Agency, 2016). Thus, even explicit statements do not guarantee
As exposures are based on location, this raises locational political inclusion.
segregations by race as well as wealth and, thereby, the legacy
of racially-based housing (Katznelson, 2005; Lipsitz, 2006; Post the Civil-Rights-era, policies also advance “color-blind
Satter, 2009) and residential policies based on house type and racism” (Bonilla-Silva, 2010) using seemingly race-neutral terms
lot size (Meyers, 2003; Nelson, 1996). As race corresponds such as ‘multifamily’ or ‘subsidized’ (Morris, 1997). A California
with wealth, segregation is apparent, including as per report suggests those least likely to resist waste-to-energy
discriminatory residential steering practices within real-estate facilities: low income; high school or less education; and open
(Bullard et al., 2007; Ford, 1994). Some degree of immobility is to promises of economic benefits (Cerrell Associates & Powell,
central within exposure inequity, with race and wealth limiting 1984). This maintains disparities (Bonilla-Silva, 2010). It seems
options (Aiken, 1985; Jepson, 2012; Mills, 1997), since wealth such inequities may be shaped by broader mechanisms, e.g.,
disparities are a self-reinforcing feature that limits the mobility of those underlying mass incarcerations (Agnew, 2016; Brown et
minorities (Bullard, 2007; Darity et al., 2006; Oliver & Shapiro, al., 2016; Gilmore, 2007; McKittrick & Woods, 2007; Pellow,
2006). Poorer families might well, then, make rational choices 2016; Woods, 1998).
100
fishers or vessel owners may simply sell and exit, lowering give a specific harvester exclusive access to an area (Wilen
welfare in lower-income communities (Carothers et al., et al., 2012). Incentives issues and fairness issues still arise
2010; Olson, 2011; Stewart & Walshe, 2008). Fewer vessels (Abbott et al., 2010; Bromley, 2009; Grimm et al., 2012;
could also lower employment, although extended fishing Kristofersson & Rickertsen, 2009). Some may be addressed
seasons could increase the total hours worked, increasing by property rights for collectives, as found in small-scale
the overall wage bill. Consolidation of production within a fisheries (Acheson, 1988; Basurto et al., 2012; Feeney et
few larger firms also impacts many shore-side firms as well al., 1990; Leal, 1998), which produce half of the total global
as employment within the processing sector (Abbott et fish harvest (Jacquet & Pauly, 2008). One way or another,
al., 2010; Anderson et al., 2011; Birkenbach et al., 2017; though, all such decisions about rights allocations have
Brandt, 2005; Copes & Charles, 2004; Olson, 2011). To equity implications.
address this, states have in some cases restricted the
transfers of fish permits, reducing efficiency gain (Da-Rocha Another response to marine equity issues is subsidies,
& Sempere, 2017; Grafton et al., 2000; Kroetz et al., 2015). raising equity and efficiency issues just as for fossil fuels
(CWN’18/10). The Sunken Billions (FAO, 2009c) has
Moving to environmental quality and exposures, some estimated total global rents from marine fisheries and
example of outcomes have illustrated the issue of unequal found that overfishing lost US$51 billion in rents in 2004
distributions of environmental burden, one present in many (supported by Sumaila et al., 2012). An update found losses
parts of the world. of US$83 billion in 2012 (World Bank, 2017a) These figures
suggest that in some areas rents were negative, i.e., revenues
2.1.9.3.2 Policy Responses (rights, did not cover costs, necessitating subsidies for firms to
continue (World Bank, 2018o). Despite data limitations, such
subsidies)
results clearly suggest widespread overfishing and declining
In fisheries and forests, public restrictions on extraction fish stocks, i.e., huge inefficiencies likely to involve and lead to
have been shown to have the capacity to help efficiently inequities if limitations are then extended.
trade-off nature and individuals’ basic needs. Extending
to individual actors can further increase efficiency and Any limitation on communities’ extraction rights is a
address equity too. A lack of agreed rights and restrictions significant equity concern for the IPLCs, including in the
in, e.g., open-access fisheries, have been showed to context of trade that responds to national differences in the
be responsible for dissipation of economic rents and rights for resources (Chichilnisky, 1994; Krausmann et al.,
degradation of stocks (Caddy & Cochrane, 2001; Charles, 2009). Affluent ‘Global North’ industrialized countries import
1988; Gordon, 1954; Kronbak, 2014). On a global scale, from resource-rich countries in the ‘Global South’, where
those fisheries harvested by multiple countries are more stocks have fallen (Garmendia et al., 2016)but states often
likely to be degraded (McWhinnie, 2009), while exclusive capture little surplus. Martínez-Alier (2002) notes ‘ecological
economic zones to exclude foreign fishers are a response. debt’ to the South, referencing varied inequalities over time
Economic costs of misaligned incentives are over $80 billion within such exchanges relevant for nature (while here we
annually (Kelleher et al., 2009), including from misallocations focus upon the rights issues underlying inequities, this links
of labor and capital (Homans & Wilen, 2005; Kelleher et al., to ‘grabbing’ above).
2009; Manning et al., 2018; McElroy, 1991; Pauly et al.,
2002). Restricting effort or gear lowers inefficiencies − but Indigenous Peoples, in particular, have highlighted
all individuals must be limited or rents get dissipated and threats from petroleum and mining activities, which were
inequity arises (Homans & Wilen, 1997; Wilen, 2006). If authorized and incentivized by national governments, as
regulators close access after a fixed total harvest, instead of in Ecuador (Forest Peoples Programme, 2007). Mining’s
fixing individual rights, then fishers will race (Birkenbach et threats to the food security of Indigenous Peoples were
al., 2017) with costs (Grafton, 1996; Huang & Smith, 2014) seen in the Philippines (Working Group on Mining in the
and risks (Pfeiffer & Gratz, 2016). Philippines, 2009). Violent confrontations have occurred,
e.g., an incident occurred in 2009 in Peru after a lack of
Individual fishing quotas (IFQs) or catch shares reduced consent by Indigenous Peoples for petroleum firms to enter
costs of racing by offering more secure shares of total indigenous territories. Indigenous Peoples in Latin America,
allowable catch (TAC). Catch-share systems have grown Asia, and Africa are not categorically opposed to mining −
since the 1970s (Christy, 1973) in part because exclusive although they struggle to hold companies and governments
economic zones made it possible for regulators to restrict accountable for the negative local impacts (Herbertson et
access (Costello et al., 2010; Tveteras et al., 2011). Shares al., 2009; Richardson, 2007). Water contamination from
give fishers a stake in the health of a fishery and may lower mining, for instance, continues to stir up such heated
collapse (Costello et al., 2008; Essington et al., 2012; conflicts (Anaya, 2011; Van de Wauw et al., 2010; van der
Melnychuk et al., 2012). For a non-mobile fish species, one Sandt, 2009). In the Philippines alone, by one account,
variant is “Territorial Use Rights for Fisheries” (TURFs), which there were 800 extrajudicial killings. in the period 2001–
101
2006, associated with protests against mining (Doyle et Yet, energy and gasoline taxes tend not to be regressive
al., 2007). in poorer countries, as vehicle ownership rates as well as
commuting patterns matter greatly. Transportation-fuels
2.1.9.3.3 Equity & Environmental/Energy taxes are thought to be progressive in Brazil, China, Costa
Rica, Mexico, and Turkey, as well as in Chile and Hungary,
Taxes (context dependence)
where vehicle ownership differs across incomes by an order
Equity impacts of taxes have varied across contexts, of magnitude (Flues & Thomas, 2015; Pizer & Sexton, 2017).
including by the type of commodity plus the physical, In Ethiopia, modern transportation in any form is beyond the
social and climatic characteristics. Relevant characteristics reach of the poorest households and, thus, a transportation-
have included the transport infrastructure, housing stock, fuels tax is strongly progressive (Flues & Thomas, 2015;
diffusion of technology, incomes, and patterns of work Sterner, 2012). Indirect effects of taxes, however, still
(Cronin et al., 2017; Pizer & Sexton, 2017). In the UK, the sometimes have been regressive. For instance, diesel
share of households’ budgets spent on natural gas falls taxes raise the cost of public transport, which impacts the
with household total expenditure, since gas is used for expenditures of low income people (Flues & Thomas, 2015;
heating. In this case, natural gas taxes are regressive, i.e., Pizer & Sexton, 2017). Yet overall, low income households
their burden falls more heavily on the poor. Yet, the budget have been less affected by the indirect impacts of energy
shares for natural gas rise with household expenditure in taxes because they consume less (Hannon et al., 1978;
Mexico − where there is less need for heating overall and Herendeen et al., 1981). Mass transit systems lower private
less adoption of home-heating capital at lower incomes. vehicle use in Europe, where longer commutes in one’s own
Comparing the UK to the US, which has more similar vehicle are rare (Haghshenas & Vaziri, 2012; Stutzer & Frey,
incomes, due to climate the UK does less cooling − whereas 2008). In contrast, in the US, lower-income people are likely
air conditioning uses significant electricity in the US (less in to own automobiles and drive relatively long distances (Pizer
coastal areas which also exhibit higher incomes). Mexico is & Sexton, 2017). Gasoline taxes even have had significant
warmer but its electricity budget shares are lower, with low effects on economic growth (Hamilton, 2009; Kilian, 2008a,
air conditioning (Davis, 2014). In general, equity impacts 2008b) − plus upon housing markets (Sexton et al., 2012),
depend upon use. Another example is the gasoline tax − in terms of both home construction (Molloy & Shan, 2013)
which is progressive or neutral in the UK, yet regressive in and home price (Morris & Neill, 2014).
the US because of more use by the poor with less use of
public transit plus longer commutes. Finally, in terms of how such issues arise in official
measurements, perceived regressivity falls if considering
Electricity taxes’ direct effects have been regressive, for groups in terms of their consumption instead of
most settings, reflecting the importance of electricity. Much expenditures, which fluctuate less − most likely as they
as for food and water, the expenditure shares decline with track expected lifetime income (Poterba, 1991a). How one
the income level. US households with lowest expenditures ranks households matters so much that: if calculating using
devote nearly 7% of their total spending to electricity, over income, fuel taxes in Germany and Sweden have been
three times the budget share for the wealthiest decile regressive; while using expenditures, it is the opposite.
(Pizer & Sexton, 2017). In the UK, electricity budget shares A challenge for addressing equity issues, then, is that
decline from over 8% among the poorest households to expenditures can vary considerably across households
barely 1% for the wealthiest. Likewise in Mexico, to a lesser which have the same income.
degree (Pizer & Sexton, 2017). Flues & Thomas (2015) find
electricity taxes to be regressive in 21 OECD countries
based on expenditure shares.
102
2.1.10 INDIRECT DRIVERS: Philippines, Vietnam and the Americas they have been
extensively cleared and overall the world has lost 50% of
GOVERNANCE – GLOBAL wetlands since 1900. Davidson (2014) review 189 reports
COORDINATION of changes in wetlands, reporting average long-term losses

of natural wetlands near 50%, since 1700, and as high
as 87% − with rates of loss more than three times faster
“Global commons” often refers, loosely, to resources for inland wetlands. Facing such pressures, the Ramsar
domains in which many countries interact, indicating shared Convention on Wetlands of International Importance is
natural resources such as the oceans, the atmosphere, one intergovernmental mechanism concerning wetlands
outer space and the polar regions. According to the World protection globally. To date 169 countries participate, having
Conservation Strategy (IUCN, 1980), in this common form of designated over 2,200 wetlands of international importance
usage: “global commons includes those parts of the Earth’s (Ramsar Sites) which together cover an area of 215 million
beyond national jurisdictions … the open ocean and the hectares, an area that is equivalent to the size of Mexico. Yet
biodiversity it contains … or [parts] held in common, as the it remains uncertain whether these commitments by national
atmosphere and the Antarctica”. governments to the Ramsar Convention have actually had
impacts in significantly reducing rates of wetlands loss.
Global commons clearly merit attention, including
specifically those domains with common-pool resources, Other global agreements also concern water management,
which are rivalrous − i.e., one consumes at the expense of e.g., the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909 set up
others − and for which it is costly to exclude potential users, mechanisms to resolve disputes over waters between
e.g., when a resource is large and abundant, plus resource the US and Canada, while the Helsinki Rules on Uses
users are disconnected from each other. A leading challenge of the Waters of International Rivers of 1966 include
is the design of governance structures and management recommendations for regulations when rivers and
systems capable of addressing multiple public and private connected groundwater systems flow across national
interests given resources with those characteristics. Mutually boundaries. Approved and adopted by International Law
agreed mutual coercion is called for to avoid ‘tragedy of the Association (ILA), this still lacks any enforcement.
commons’ at any level (Hardin, 1968; Ostrom, 1990).
Among ‘global’ coordination actions, we consider regional
Conditions can make global collective management easier social systems and ecosystems, especially if they cross
or harder. For instance, resource scale, number of users, international boundaries. One example is the Johnston
absence of a shared culture for resource users, and more Agreement of 1955 concerning Israel, the West Bank, the
heterogeneity globally than for local management of Gaza Strip and Jordan, with conflict-resolution mechanisms
common-pool resources (Dietz et al., 2003) all matter. Social regarding water scarcity. The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960
learning about the resource dynamics and the implications addresses water distribution between Pakistan and India.
of diverse uses is critical too. Regulatory authority for three “eastern” rivers (Beas, Ravi,
Sutlej) was given to India, with the authority for three
Various global environmental protocols were deployed “western” rivers (Indus, Chenab and Jhelum) given to
in the last 50 years, especially after the 1972 Stockholm Pakistan and mechanisms for water sharing sketched
Intergovernmental Conference. The Montreal Protocol out for sectors such as irrigation, transport and power
to address the ‘ozone hole’, for instance, has become a generation. One global effort has been the Convention on
reference for linking governments and the private sector the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and
and contributing to promote economic, technological, and International Lakes − Water Convention – due to the United
behavioural changes. On the other hand, many legally binding Nations Economic Commission for Europe. This entered
protocols do not provide a full solution for global commons into force in 1996, with 40 states and the European Union
governance, since they are slow to be implemented, or lack as parties and mandates to: improve states’ efforts to shield
either monitoring or enforcement capacity and activities. and organize shared water systems and groundwater;
Patterns of adoption over time can be seen within Figure and promote cooperation with joint decisions including
2.1.11, by country income levels (also see Figure S16). governance with monitoring, research, consultations,
warning systems and knowledge exchange.
Some cooperation has involved aquatic ecosystems,
including wetlands that reduce impacts of floods, coastal Moving to the oceans, recognition of the International
storms and high temperatures as an alternative to ‘grey’ or Council for the Exploration of the Sea as an expert body
engineered solutions. Loss of wetlands to food production for the governance of marine resources occurred in 1928,
reduces flood protection and storm-water management, while in 1945 the FAO was founded to identify and address
a tradeoff. Yet, nonetheless, one third of global mangrove key challenges to revitalizing the fisheries sector in Europe.
ecosystems are depleted or severely degraded. In India, Challenges were over-fishing and over-capacity. Regional
103
A NUMBER OF PARTIES WITH ACTIVE NBSAPs DEVELOPED OR REVISED IN LIGHT B THE RAMSAR SITES
OF THE STRATEGIC PLAN FOR BIODIVERSITY 2011−2020
120 INCOME
Global
NUMBER OF PARTIES
100
1− High Income
OECD
80 2− High Income
Oil
60 3− Other high
income
4− Upper-middle High Income OECD
40 income
5− Lower-middle High Income Oil
20 income Other high income
6− Low income Upper-middle income
0
Visuals prepared by the IPBES Lower-middle income
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2008
Knowledge and Data TSU based on
raw data provided by indicator holders. Low income
C UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON D CONVENTION OF FISHING AND CONSERVATION OF

CLIMATE CHANGE THE LIVING RESOURCES OF THE HIGH SEAS
200
Number of participating
150 60
countries
countries
100 40
50 20
0 0
1990
1995
2001
2006
2012
2017
1952
1965
1979
1993
2006
2020
Date of entry Date of entry
E MONTREAL PROTOCOL F CONVENTION ON BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY

200
250
150 200
countries
countries
150
100
100
50
50
0 0
1987
1993
1998
2004
2009
2014
1990
2004
2017
G CONVENTION ON THE CONSERVATION OF ANTARTIC G NAGOYA PROTOCOL

MARINE LIVING RESOURCES
50
100
40
80
countries
countries
30 60
20 40
10 20
0 0
2010
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
1957
1971
1984
1998
2012
Figure 2 1 11 Temporal trends in number of parties joining global agreements:

A Parties with active National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs) as per the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity
2011-2020; B Ramsar sites area per category of countries; and the number of countries in C the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (1990~2017), D the Convention of Fishing and Conservation of the Living Resources of the
High Seas (1952~2034), E the Montreal Protocol (1987~2014), F the Convention on Biological Diversity (1990~2017), G the
Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (1957~2012), and H the Nagoya Protocol (2009~2017).
104
Average values per country using World Bank income categories for Figures A and B : High Income OECD (a:21, b:) High
Income Oil (a:3, b:), Other high income (a:16, b:), Upper-middle income (a:40, b:), Lower-middle income (a:34, b:), Low income
(a:27, b:) and Total (a:141, b:). Source: (Australian Government - Department of the Environment and Energy, 2017; CBD, 2018a,
2018b; UN, 1966; UN Secretariat to the Antarctic Treaty, 2018).
Fisheries Management Organizations (RFMOs) were if the treaty enters into force only after a specific number of
established to manage highly migratory stocks, such as countries has signed on, then no country loses and each
different tuna species. Around this time, global fishing effort country could gain from signing on after that number.
shifted to the Southern Hemisphere, as key fish stocks
in the Northern Hemisphere stocks were depleted. Latin Focusing on biodiversity in particular, CITES is an
American countries then began to claim jurisdiction over example of a form of global governance that is evolving in
the 200 miles extending from their coastlines. Expansion of implementation via interaction with its member states, in
global fishing fleets prompted the establishment of national light of species scarcity. CITES is an agreement between
sovereignty over coastal waters via the United Nations governments to ensure that international trade in specimens
Conference on the Law of the Sea convention (meetings of wild animals and plants does not threaten their survival.
1958 to 1982). Exclusive economic zones (EEZs) were Its implementation responds to changes in nature to
established, giving jurisdiction over 200 nautical miles from ensure that biodiversity is not compromised. UN member
national coasts. This allowed countries to manage fish states signed CITES, then established a mechanism to
stocks in their national waters using licensing systems to implement the agenda. For example, the government of
restrict or more generally manage both national and foreign India signed and ratified in 1976, then established a CITES
fishing vessels in those waters. Management Authority, coordinated by a Director in Wildlife
Preservation, alongside authorities including the Wildlife
Other key international agreements within this sector Crime Control Bureau.
include the UN Convention on Fishing and Conservation
of Living Resources of the High Seas, as well as the FAO Efforts to enforce CITES’ provisions have affected how
Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries that promotes species-based trade and illegal activities are regulated, with
a ‘precautionary approach’. In addition, the Convention provisions to reform national-level environmental legislation
on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources in conjunction with the CITES Secretariat (administered by
established an MPA and the closures of bottom-trawling UNEP in Geneva). For instance, India amended its Wild Life
fisheries to protect resources located outside of national (Protection) Act of 1972 to integrate CITES provisions, then
jurisdictions (Caddy & Cochrane, 2001; Wilen et al., 2012; took several initiatives to build capacity for implementation,
Wright et al., 2015). such as establishing a self-sustaining multilateral mechanism
(including China, Germany, India, Kenya, South Africa,
International cooperation on transboundary environmental Thailand, Uganda and United States) for funding a program
degradation (water, air, CO2) also has been studied (Barrett, to Monitor the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE) in Asia.
1999, 2001, 2013; Barrett & Stavins, 2003; Wood, 2011). Along these lines, Nigeria put in place guidelines for
Cooperation can be ‘strategic’, depending on beliefs wood-product vendors to require letters of support and
about the decisions of others, creating an obvious setting CITES permits. That may indicate a shift to sustainable
for spillovers from one country’s decisions. While getting harvesting, updated per species’ threats. Yet impacts
cooperation can be daunting if goals are insufficient or too remain unclear for these iterations between countries and
ambitious (Barrett et al., 2006; Vale, 2016), participation international instruments.
tipping points can be reached if enough countries join then
(Barrett & Dannenberg, 2015; Green, 2015).
Alternatively, agreements among smaller sets of countries

with common interest are highlighted. Though not global
solutions, they are superior to countries acting alone (Finus
et al., 2009; Tavoni, 2013). Multiple such small agreements,
each acceptable within like groups, could constitute
complementary elements in global political frameworks
for environmental governance (Falkner et al., 2010; Hale &
Roger, 2014). Technical innovations matter greatly. Barrett
et al. (2006) shows that technologies with increasing returns
can succeed where coordination by countries is possible:
105
2.1.11 INDIRECT-TO- with considerable ecological impacts (Alfaro-Shigueto et al.,

2010; McClanahan et al., 2009). Yet, SSF statistics are often
DIRECT DRIVERS: unreported (FAO, 2016b; Salas et al., 2007). FAO efforts to
ACTIONS THAT DIRECTLY elevate the profile of SSFs (FAO, 2014) have been improving
the reliability and the quality of SSF data (FAO, 2016b).
AFFECT NATURE
While three-quarters of major marine fish stocks are fully
Given the demands for a good quality of life, and or over-exploited or depleted —3% underexploited, 20%
characteristics of society including governance, individuals moderately, 52% fully, 17% overexploited, 7% depleted, 1%
and societies undertake actions with intentional and recovering from depletion (FAO, 2005, 2016b), efforts are being
unintentional impacts on nature. Each action can be undertaken to shift trends and increase sustainability. The
carried out in different ways, with different impacts on global fishery community is incrementally adopting sustainable
nature and on actors. Major trends for actions and impacts development principles since 1992, including under the
are shown in Figure 2.1.12 for groups of countries with umbrella of mainstreaming biodiversity (Friedman et al., 2018).
different development levels (https://www.un.org/en/ Cross-sectoral cooperation has also been particularly critical to
development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_current/2014wesp_ address disagreements, with approaches increasingly including
country_classification.pdf), revealing the global trends (see biodiversity considerations. Conservation increasingly adopts
Figure S17). Actions (economic sectors) and their direct more socially inclusive approaches. Efforts on sustainability
consequences on ecosystems are discussed below. relate to the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY; UN, 2017),
which sets harvesting standards. Also, ecologically sound
farming systems include aquaculture and integrated farming
2.1.11.1 Fisheries, Aquaculture systems. For instance, in December 2016, 296 fisheries
and Mariculture in 35 countries were certified as sustainable by the Marine
Stewardship Council Fisheries Standards aiming for healthy
Fisheries, aquaculture and mariculture play an increasing ecosystems and long-term sustainability of stocks. Marine
role in food security, livelihoods, and the global economy, spatial planning to reduce conflicts between large- and small-
yet fish stocks are being depleted. Fish provide ~20% of all scale fisheries as well as other sectors is increasing in many
animal protein globally (FAO, 2009b), and almost 60 million parts of the world (Douvere & Ehler, 2006). Such planning
people were engaged in fisheries and aquaculture in 2012, encompasses ecosystem-based management (FAO, 2003;
most in Asia (84%) and Africa (>10%) (FAO, 2014). Value see McLeod & Leslie, 2009), marine protected areas (FAO,
added in fisheries in 2011 was estimated to be over US$24 2011a), and an adaptative management perspective based
billion, i.e., 1.26% of the GDP of all the African countries. on participation of the diverse stakeholders (Ehler & Douvere,
2009; Levin et al., 2018).
Industrial fishing’s footprint is 4 times that of agriculture,
covering at least 55% of oceans’ areas. Data from a new In contrast, knowledge of inland fisheries is limited, despite
digital platform (Global Fishing Watch, 2018; Kroodsma et al., societal and ecological significance. Inland fisheries are in
2018; McCauley et al., 2016) allows for remote monitoring lakes, reservoirs, rivers, floodplains, wetlands, lagoons and
of vessels in the sea, providing new insights (Figure 2.1.13). estuaries. Their economic and food security contributions
They permit monitoring of the 2012–16 activities of more can be invisible (Lynch et al., 2016, 2017; Youn et al.,
than 70,000 industrial fishing vessels. As much as 85% of the 2014), with inaccurate or unavailable data (Bartley et al.,
fishing in remote parts of the oceans was by only five countries 2015). Currently, global estimates (FAO, 2016b) suggest a
(China, Spain, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea). Global production of about 11.9 million metric tons, over 12% of
fishing hot spots include the northeast Atlantic (Europe) and fisheries production. Over the past decade, the outputs from
northwest Pacific (China, Japan, and Russia), plus upwellings inland fisheries rose by over 30% despite threats from dam
off South America and West Africa (Figure 2.1.13). Lowest construction, water withdrawals, and pollution. For instance,
efforts were in the Southern Ocean, the northeast Pacific migratory Caspian sturgeons lost 90% of their habitats
and the central Atlantic, and in the exclusive economic zones (Barannik et al., 2004).
(EEZs) of many island states (Figure 2.1.13).
Global fish production is concentrated in a few countries and
Smal-scale or non-industrial fisheries (SSF) comprise a large firms. Overall, Asia accounted for 89% by volume and 79% by
share of global fisheries. SSFs account for over 90% of economic value in aquaculture (Bostock et al., 2010). Thirteen
commercial fishers (over 100 million people), and nearly half large corporations from seven countries control a significant
(46%) of the global fish catch (Basurto et al., 2017; Béné, fraction (11–16%) of global marine catch (9–13 million tons)
2008; World Bank, 2012). SSF practices entail less bycatch, and control the largest stocks, with the highest economic
less destructive gear, and less fuel consumption (Pauly, values (19–40%), while operating through an extensive global
2008), more sustainable than industrial fisheries, though network of subsidiaries (Österblom et al., 2015).
106
A B C
D E F
G H
Figure 2 1 12 Temporal trends for selected indicators of actions and direct drivers.
Data shown are trends, per country, averaged ( A , B , E , F , H ) or totaled ( C , D , G ) by development categories:
A Fertilizer use: Fertilizer consumption measures the quantity of plant nutrients (kg) used per unit of arable land per year;
B Fraction of cultivated and urban area: Proportion of total area of country with cultivated and urban land cover, based
on ESA CCI Global Land Cover v2.0.7; C Extraction of living biomass: Millions of tons per year extracted from agriculture,
forestry, fishing, hunting and other types of living biomass; D Extraction of nonliving materials: Millions of tons per year
extracted of fossil fuels, metal ores, and minerals for construction and industry; E Per capita greenhouse gases emissions:
107
metric tons of CO2 emitted per year; E Air Pollution: mean annual exposure to particles larger than 2.5 micrometer of
diameter in micrograms per cubic meter; G Alien species: Cumulative number of first records of alien species;
H Biodiversity intactness index: relative change in abundance of native species as compared to a pristine system.
Source: ESA (2017); FAO (2018b); Newbold et al. (2016); Ritchie & Roser (2018); Seebens et al. (2017); World Bank (2018c);
WU (2017).
Figure 2 1 13 Fishing and transportation impacts on the global oceans of all vessels detected
with Automatic Identification Systems (AIS).
A The spatial footprint of fishing. Effort (hours fished per square km (h km-2)) in 2016. B Global Network of Ship Movements
(data 2012). Daily records for each 0.2° x 0.2° grid cell. Colored scale shows the number of messages recorded over the year in
a cell. The boundaries, names and designations used do not imply any form of official endorsement or acceptance by the United
Nations. Source: (Kroodsma et al., 2018; UN, 2016d).
Material from the IMO publication Third IMO GHG Study 2014, is reproduced with the permission of the International Maritime Organization. The quoted material
may not be a complete and accurate version of the original publication and the original publication may have subsequently been amended.
The contribution of aquaculture to global fish production is expansion has incorporated an increasing list of species
increasing, with an average annual expansion rate of 9.5% with different regional and economic importance values
and 6.2% in 1990–2000 and 2000–2012, respectively (FAO, (FAO, 2014). The production of aquafeed has increased
2014). Yet its contribution to the total fish production has four times to 29.2 million tons by 2008 (UN, 2017) and it is
widely fluctuated, especially after 2000 (OECD, 2016). This contributing to national economies (US$6.4 billion in 2014),
108
particularly within developing countries. Fishmeal and fish Agricultural intensification has also increased, with mixed
oil are produced mainly from harvesting stocks of small, social and ecological outcomes. For instance, water
fast reproducing fish (e.g., anchovies, small sardines and withdrawals and pesticide use have doubled, fertilizer use
menhaden). Aquaculture is also emerging as an ecologically has tripled, chicken density has increased 10-fold, and cattle
friendly alternative (Cottier-Cook et al., 2016), although its density has risen by 20% (Figure S20). Between 1985 and
growth is having mixed effects upon coastal and marine 2005 crop production rose 47% as yields rose 28%, while
ecosystems (Figure S19). For instance, selective fish farming global crop and pasture lands rose 3%, largely in the tropics
for high-performance breeds affects species diversity (Zhou (Foley et al., 2011; Poore & Nemecek, 2018). Extensive
et al., 2010). Aquaculture also contributes to coastal habitat grazing occurs in 91% of lands, with intensive rising to 9%,
destruction via both wastes (nutrients, feces, antibiotics) largely for livestock production (IPBES, 2018a). An analysis
disposal and introduction of invasive alien species and of 60 cases found that agricultural intensification rarely leads
pathogens. Aquaculture also contributes to further to win–win social-ecological outcomes, often increasing food
depleting fish stocks, due to the large fish meal and fish or provisioning services with mixed outcomes for regulating
oil requirements (Naylor et al., 1998, 2000). These effects services, that support long-term productivity, and overall
are species dependent. For instance, shrimp and salmon well-being (Rasmussen et al., 2018).
farming have net negative effects, while carp and mollusk
farming have net positive effects on global fish supply and Livestock production uses a third of crop production for feed
food security (Naylor et al., 2000). and three quarters of land in total, with consequences for
nature as animal-based foods, and especially beef, require
more water and energy than plant-based foods (Ranganathan
2.1.11.2 Agriculture and grazing et al., 2016). This all translates into greenhouse gas emissions
(crops, livestock, agroforestry) as well (FAO, 2008). Substantial variation exists in conversion
efficiency (i.e., animal products divided by feed to produce
The wide range of agricultural systems includes plant and them), from 8–10% in Europe to only 1–2% in sub-Saharan
animal-based systems, mixed farming, and newly emerging Africa, Latin America and South Asia (Krausmann et al., 2008).
organic, precision, and peri-urban agricultural systems.
Agroecosystems cover close to 40% of lands and continue Diverse agricultural systems exist, though, with combinations
to expand as there is a need to provide food, fuel and of short-lived and perennial crops together with timber and
fiber for the 9–12 billion people expected by 2050 (Nyaga non-timber products developed over centuries in rural areas,
et al., 2015). More than 175 species constitute the most including by IPLCs. Varied agro-silvo-pastoral systems allow
frequently and extensively cultivated species, globally, maintenance of biodiversity, lower nature’s degradation
with large variations in agricultural yield (Monfreda et al., and provide a wide range of material, regulating and non-
2008). While agriculture’s inputs and its outputs constitute material contributions (Altieri et al., 2012; Balvanera et al.,
the bulk of world trade, most food produced today is 2014; González-Esquivel et al., 2015; Kanter et al., 2018;
consumed domestically. Moreno-Calles et al., 2015). Yet, the associated local and
indigenous ethnoecological knowledge is being eroded by
In 2000 there were 15.0 million km2 of cropland (12% of migration, urbanization, affected by extension programs, and
the Earth’s ice-free land surface) and 28.0 million km2 of by agricultural policies oriented to expand the areas under
pasture (22%) (Ramankutty et al., 2008). Impacts from intensive pesticide-based monocultures in support of the
agriculture are huge (HLPE, 2013; Pretty et al., 2006; international trade of agricultural commodities. For instance,
SDSN, 2013), e.g., 70–90% of withdrawals from rivers, a 70% decline in the cultivation of native plant varieties was
lakes, and aquifers (Foley et al., 2005) and 25% of global observed in the Asia and the Pacific region, with reductions
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land clearing, crop in genetic resources (IPBES, 2018b).
production, and fertilization (Burney et al., 2010). During
1980–2000, most new agricultural lands in the tropics Still, small landholders play crucial roles. It is estimated
came at the expense of intact or disturbed forests (Gibbs that small-scale (< 2ha) farms generate ~30% of crops
et al., 2010). In Africa, agricultural expansion is farming and food supply, using 24% of land, and with high
for subsistence (small plots for sorghum, maize, millet) agrobiodiversity (Ricciardi et al., 2018). They also play a key
but sugarcane and soybeans are responsible for most role in maintaining the genetic diversity of managed species
agricultural expansion in South America. Rice, wheat, (IPBES, 2018b). In Mexico, for example, small-holders
millet, and sorghum dominate South Asia, consistently over cultivating rainfed maize reach yields equal to 3 t/ha, and
time, though tree plantations increased from ~11 to ~17 can feed more than half of the country’s population while
million hectares between 1980 and 2000, with oil palm having a large genetic diversity (Bellon et al., 2018).
plantations responsible for over 80% of this expansion,
particularly since the 1990s (Gibbs et al., 2010; Ramankutty As pristine areas fall, the design and management of
et al., 2008). sustainable agroecosystems (Altieri, 1995) has been
109
applied in agroforestry, sustainable intense agriculture, and in energy supply declined (15% to 10%) over the same
integrated pest management (Barrios et al., 2018) with period (De Stercke, 2014). Global use of fuelwood peaked
gains for biodiversity and ecosystem services (Bawa, 2004; in the mid-1970s and has been falling since the 1980s.
Du Toit et al., 2004; IAASTD, 2009; Nyaga et al., 2015; Over a quarter of global fuelwood harvested in 2009 was
Pimentel et al., 1992; Schroth et al., 2004; Tscharntke et al., deemed unsustainable, with geographical variations. Over
2005; Vandermeer & Perfecto, 1995). Zomer et al. (2016) 250 million rural people live in fuelwood-scarcity “hotspots”,
find for 2010 that over 43% of agricultural lands had at least mostly in South Asia and East Africa (Masera et al., 2015).
10% tree cover (FAO forest definition). This can connect Of all wood in fuel, about 17% is converted to charcoal, of
forests, as is the case within the Mesoamerican Biological which production rose over 3-fold during 1961–2015 (FAO,
Corridor (MBC) launched in 1990 to link forests in northern 2016a) given the population growth, poverty, urbanization
Colombia with those of southern Mexico. and prices of alternatives (FAO, 2017a).
Organic agriculture has also developed rapidly in more Over decades, and centuries, the maintenance of forest
recent decades, including in larger-scale systems, with a cover and biodiversity has been possible, in cases at least,
focus on utilizing lower off-farm inputs and, where possible, alongside the harvesting of timber and non-timber forest
cultural, biological and mechanical pest management. products. Experiences from implementing sustainable
By 2006, such practices covered over 31 million ha in forestry in past decades shows that it can achieve higher
120 countries (Alexandros et al., 2012). With variable levels of success where attention is given to planning,
outcomes, they may improve biodiversity, soil and water establishing permits, and legal rights (MacDicken et al.,
quality and nutritional value, although not always providing 2015). As discussed above, forest certification standards
higher yields and lower consumer prices when compared to for sustainable harvest have been developed by several
large-scale monocropping (Seufert & Ramankutty, 2017). organizations, including the Forest Stewardship Council
(FSC, 2018) and the Programme for the Endorsement of
Forest Certification (PEFC, 2018). For tropical forests, such
2.1.11.3 Forestry (logging for wood certifications have, in cases, provided varied environmental
& biofuels) and social benefits for local communities, with lower short-
term profits (Burivalova et al., 2017).
Between 1990 and 2015, global forest area fell from
4.28 billion to 3.99 billion ha, while the area of planted Sustainable community forestry is found in Latin America
forests rose from 167.5 to 277.9 million ha (Payn et al., (Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Peru), Canada
2015). Forests currently cover one-third of terrestrial area and the US (Gilmour, 2016; Merino & Cendejas, 2017;
(FAO, 2012a), and a large fraction of people depend at Nagendra, 2007), while sustainable family forestry occurs in
least in part on forests (FAO, 2012a). A challenge has been Northern and Central Europe (Finland and Austria). Often,
to manage forests to sustain livelihoods and yet maintain community forest is managed within agroforestry systems
regenerative capacity to ensure long-run survival of forests such as for shade coffee and cacao. For instance, within
(MacDicken et al., 2015). the lands of IPLCs in Mexico and Central America, there is
evidence that community forestry is as efficient as protected
Global harvests of roundwood in 2017 were estimated to areas in preserving forests and conserving biodiversity
be 3.9 billion m3 of which 1.9 billion were industrial and (including both bird and mammal species) and reducing
1.9 billion were fuelwood (~50% respectively) (FAO, 2018c). rates of greenhouse gas emissions (Bray & Merino-Pérez,
Harvests of industrial roundwood are falling in high income 2004; Duran-Medina et al., 2005; Merino & Cendejas, 2017;
OECD countries but increasing in lower-middle and upper- Merino-Pérez, 2004). However, economic and environmental
middle income countries (Figure S22). Asia has the highest benefits of community management are still understudied
proportion of agricultural land (52%) and the lowest of forest and, in the case of tropical forests, its social impacts could
(19%). Temperate areas within East Asia, Europe, North be either positive or negative (Burivalova et al., 2017).
America, and Southern and Southeast Asia show the largest
increases in planted forests. Native species are found
within 80% of the planted forests, while introduced species 2.1.11.4 Harvesting (wild plants
dominate in South America, Oceania and Eastern and and animals from seascapes and
Southern Africa as a result of industrial forestry there. landscapes)
Much forest biomass generates energy, as solid, liquid and Harvesting and use of non-timber forest products (NTFPs)
gaseous fuels, accounting for 14% of the global energy is a core component of livelihoods for forest-dependent
mix in 2014 (IEA, 2017), while generating greenhouse gas communities around the world. About 350 million people in
emissions. Between 1960 and 2014, bioenergy use rose or adjacent to forests depend on NTFPs for subsistence and
2.7-fold, most in Africa (4.1-fold), yet the share of bioenergy income (World Bank, 2004). NTFPs include any biological
110
resources found in forests other than timber (e.g., seeds, with a mixed set of motivations (Bauer & Giles, 2002). Yet
oils, foliage, game animals, medicinal plants, spices, bark, hunters have declined in many parts of Europe and the
mushrooms, fuelwood). Poor rural populations heavily US. Game fishing targets larger members of many species,
depend on medicinal plants when healthcare is limited, with which tend to be the most fecund, yielding disproportionate
Africa being most dependent (IPBES, 2018b). impacts on biodiversity. A large number of species (85)
targeted by the International Game Fish association
Data are patchy, as consumption is often local, outside are considered ‘threatened’ by IUCN. In contrast, most
markets, and not within national statistics. A meta-analysis Arctic hunting and fishing is for local consumption − often
of 51 studies in 17 countries found that NTFPs represented, regulated separately (CAFF, 2013) − with nutritional and
on average, 22% of total income for sampled populations. cultural significance, especially for Indigenous Peoples.
They also play key roles as equalizers of local income
distributions (Vedeld et al., 2007) because the poor rely
more on them. A study (Belcher et al., 2005), of close to 2.1.11.5 Mining (minerals, metals,
100 cases across Africa, Asia and Latin America supports oils, fossil fuels)
that the households with lower incomes relied more on
NTFPs for their livelihoods − such that degradation and Mining activities directly and indirectly affect the livelihoods
overexploitation impact the rural poor more (Belcher et al., of most people around the world, via contributions to the
2007; Shackleton & Shackleton, 2004), especially the old production and use of minerals, metals, oils and fossil fuels.
and the young. Hundreds of mineral commodities have uses in energy,
construction, manufacture, and industrial processes. Mining
Some NTFPs have large markets. For instance, maple contributes a large fraction of the world’s GDP, particularly
syrup earned ~US$350 million in 2015, up 18% from among emerging economies, with over 60% of GDP for
2011. Canada produced 82% of it, followed by the US 81 countries in 2014, and more than 17,000 large-scale
(7.6%) and Germany (2.3%) (Barlow et al., 2015). Rattan sites in 171 countries (Matos et al., 2015). Oil, gas, coal and
from humid and sub-humid forests in Indonesia (80%) minerals (e.g., bauxite, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, nickel,
earned over US$70m (62,000 tons) in 2008, down 70% phosphate rock, silver, tin and zinc) are close to a quarter
from 2000 (Hirschberger, 2011). Empirical evidence is of natural capital globally, and close to 7% of total wealth
biased towards such traded NTFPs, which are a small (World Bank, 2006). Thus, this is an extremely important
fraction (Belcher et al., 2005). While commercialization may economic sector.
maintain and even improve livelihoods, market chains with
many intermediaries can lower local economic returns and Yet, it features imperfections in rights, markets and legal
increase overexploitation of the products (Buda Arango et structures. Valuable resources have had destructive
al., 2014; Marshall et al., 2006). consequences as well, such as in Africa’s ‘diamond wars’
(Gylfason, 2009), although systematic quantitative global
Bushmeat is an important source of protein and provides data on these issues largely are missing. As global gold
food security and livelihoods for many forest-dependent demand increased after the international financial crisis,
rural and urban populations in low- and lower-middle within the South American moist forest ecoregions more than
income countries. In the tropics, at least 6 million tons 90% of the deforestation linked with gold mining occurred
of large to medium size mammals, birds and reptiles are within four major hotspots: Guianan (41%), Southwest
harvested every year (Nasi et al., 2011), with 1 to 5 million Amazon (28%); Tapajós–Xingú watersheds (11%); and
tons within the Congo Basin alone (Fa et al., 2003; Wilkie Magdalena–Urabá along with Magdalena valley montane
& Carpenter, 1999). About a third is commercialized and forest (9%) (Alvarez-Berríos & Aide, 2015). Some of the more
reported in national statistics (Karp et al., 2015; Nasi et al., active zones for all this deforestation associated with gold
2011). Many species can survive high offtake but for slow- mining deforestation occurred in or within 10 kilometers of
breeding species even low offtake can be devastating (Van protected areas (Alvarez-Berríos & Aide, 2015).
Vliet et al., 2010, 2007). Some literature suggests that the
rare species are seldom targeted and are a small share of Mineral deposits of Al, Fe, Cu, Au, and Ag are concentrated
offtake (Abernethy & Ndong Obiang, 2010; Nasi et al., 2011; in the Andes, Rocky Mountains, North-East America,
Van Vliet et al., 2010), yet a large number of primate species Australia, South-eastern and Western Africa, Northern and
are threatened. Eastern Europe, and in Eastern and South-Pacific Asia.
Globally, bauxite and silver mines are within zones with
In high and middle income countries, hunting, and trophy intermediate to high biodiversity (Murguía et al., 2016).
hunting in particular, now are mostly recreational, aimed at Further, as the ice melts with climate change, new areas
large game species (bears, wolves, lynx, red deer, wild boar) are opening up to mining within the Arctic and the Antarctic
and at birds (ducks, geese, waders, doves, passerines). regions, including with important petroleum reserves in the
Around 6 million wild ungulates are harvested every year, Arctic (AMAP, 2018).
111
Surface mining is a driver of land-cover change, pollution largest human rights violations (Inter-American Court of
of surface and ground water, and air quality degradation, Human Rights and Bebbington & Bury, 2013; see sections
constituting a health hazard in many regions. Although it 2.1.6.3.2 and 2.1.9.1).
occupies under 1% of land area, it has negative effects upon
vast areas (Schueler et al., 2011; Sonter et al., 2014), locally
for biodiversity perhaps more than agricultural expansion 2.1.11.6 Infrastructure (dams,
(Deikumah et al., 2014). Severe landscape transformations cities, roads)
include not only deforestation but also the opening of pits,
vast amounts of waste, large quantities used of freshwater, While the development of infrastructure has negative direct
and chemical and physical pollutants released into air, consequences on the environment, it has both negative
land and water (Palmer et al., 2010). Coal and gold mining and positive indirect effects (see also sections 2.1.5.3,
(Epstein et al., 2011; Palmer et al., 2010) can severely 2.1.6.2, 2.1.9.1.2, 2.1.11.1). Rivers have been modified
modify a landscape, including via extensive destruction of for thousands of years to regulate floods and to ensure
forest and the corresponding loss of habitats (Asner et al., water supply for irrigation, industries and settlements,
2013; Swenson et al., 2011; Wickham et al., 2007). recreation, navigation and hydropower generation. Over
past decades, the numbers of dams and reservoirs, and
Subsequent processing also released carbon dioxide, their overall storing capacities, have greatly increased.
sulfur dioxide, methane, particulate matter, mercury and Currently, about 50,000 large dams (higher than 15 m), and
other heavy metals, generating acid rain and raising the an estimated 16.7 million reservoirs (larger than 0.01 ha)
bioavailability of mercury and other heavy metals (Epstein et hold approximately 8,070 km3 of water (Lehner et al., 2011).
al., 2011; Palmer et al., 2010). In the main gold production Close to 8% of the world’s rivers are affected by cumulative
region of Colombia, gold mining is responsible for the upstream reservoir capacities exceeding 2% of the annual
highest reported concentration of mercury in the air (a flow. Smaller reservoirs (> 0.5 km3) account for a small
thousand times above the WHO’s allowable level) (Cordy et fraction of the water stored, yet substantially affect rivers,
al., 2011), putting ~150,000 people at high risk of mercury increasing their spatial extent (Lehner et al., 2011). These
poisoning (Spiegel, 2012). Artisanal and small-scale gold changes have decreased the global annual sediment flux
mining is the leading source of anthropogenic mercury to the coastal zones by 3.7 billion tons, leading to river
emissions globally (UNEP, 2013). Mining also occurs in sediment starvation and thus coastal erosion in delta regions
oceans, in over 50 countries. While seabed mining is a and estuaries with negative consequences upon habitats,
currently relatively small, the growing demand for minerals while increasing coastal and estuarine turbidity, negatively
has led to 18 contracts granted in the last 4 years by the affecting biological systems. These estuaries and deltas are
International Seabed Authority (ISA), for ~1 million km2 in estimated to concentrate some of the largest population
the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans beyond any national density in the world, including a large share of coastal
jurisdiction (Wedding et al., 2015). mega-cities (UN, 2017).
While large companies produce most of the minerals traded Urbanization has multiple and complex linkages to the
internationally, small-scale mining is an important economic environment (Bai et al., 2017; Grimm et al., 2008). Currently,
activity, particularly in the developing world. Many poor rural urban areas account less than 3% of the total land area
people see it as a best livelihood option (Spiegel, 2012), (Grimm et al., 2008; McGranahan et al., 2005), although
yet they may not capture much economic surplus in the urban expansion is faster than urban population growth
value chain (Hilson, 2003; Hinton, 2005). Whole countries (UN, 2014), often driven by positive feedbacks between
rich in minerals have had limited long-term impacts on their urbanization and economic growth (Bai et al., 2012). From
economies from mining. Latin America has large deposits of 1970 to 2000, urban land use expanded by 58,000 km2
copper, iron, gold and silver. Chile, Bolivia and Peru are the (Bai et al., 2012; Seto et al., 2011). The expansion of
major mining countries of South America. Africa is estimated cities is linked to infrastructure to supply demands of
to have 40% of the world’s gold, 60% of cobalt, and 90% urban living (e.g., transportation of people, goods, energy,
of platinum. Yet, booming mining sectors in mineral-rich water), with effects in and beyond the boundaries of urban
countries may not have large gains in local communities, areas. Growing urban populations create more impervious
especially when also taking into account environment and surfaces, which reduce water infiltration, affecting regional
health impacts (Gordon & Webber, 2008). Many countries climates and hydrology (Chen et al., 2010a; Tayanc &
have been unable to use mining wealth to greatly boost Toros, 1997; Žganec, 2012). Infrastructure development
their economies (Auty, 2006; Sachs & Warner, 1995). projects designed to address the supply of natural
Furthering the potential for local net costs, the sector also resources may also displace people, take agricultural
has been linked to social and environmental conflicts, and land out of production, and alter ecosystems (Liu et al.,
illegal activities, with a few large multinational companies 2016c; Vitousek et al., 1997b; Zhang, 2009). Yet, urban
controlling large networks of exploration sites with the infrastructure attracts people from rural areas, potentially
112
lessening the land uses in fragile and/or low productivity more energy and telecommunications connections, as well
ecosystems, stimulating ecosystem recovery and improving as more extensive transport networks in locations with a
biodiversity conservation (Aide & Grau, 2004; Grau & Aide, higher density of population and industry. In contrast, while
2007; Grau et al., 2003). infrastructure has expanded tremendously in many rapidly
growing cities and peri-urban settlement in Africa and
Urbanization is also a major cause of losses of lakes and South and East Asia, it still lags the growth of population
wetlands in multiple countries (Davis & Froend, 1999; and service demands – leading to local environmental
Prasad et al., 2002; Wang et al., 2008). Production and degradation − while the inadequate design and maintenance
consumption in cities can exacerbate air and water pollution of that new infrastructure lead to its severe deterioration
− with negative health consequences (Guo et al., 2013; and significantly reduced lifespans. Urban growth within the
Liu et al., 2016b; McMichael, 2000; Zhu et al., 2012). less-developed countries also brings complex challenges,
Urban land expansion also reduces habitats, particularly as for increasing the provision of basic services, such as
in biodiversity hotspots (Elmqvist et al., 2013; Seto et al., clean water and sanitation (Cohen, 2004, 2006; Elmqvist
2012). Urbanization and urban activities shift spatial and et al., 2004; Hardoy et al., 2013; Seto et al., 2013; UN,
temporal patterns of rainfall (Shi et al., 2017), while physical 2014; World Bank, 2015b; Young et al., 2009), although
structures influence regional temperatures through heat such challenges have also offered opportunities for locally
islands (Giridharan et al., 2004; Sobstyl et al., 2018). On the developed solutions (Nagendra et al., 2018).
other hand, cities can also be champions of environmental
stewardship, for instance by building flood-resilient cities
and reducing varied emissions of greenhouse gases (Bai et 2.1.11.7 Tourism (intensive and
al., 2018; Solecki et al., 2018). Biodiversity friendly cities are nature-based)
also now found (Botzat et al., 2016).
Tourism has dramatically grown in the last 20 years. Total
Roads and transportation infrastructure have been international departures and arrivals tripled globally, with
associated with both increased pressures upon forests and greater increases from high income and upper-middle
habitats or, in contexts, relocation of pressures away from income countries (Figure S23). Much is domestic, e.g.:
nature (Benítez-López et al., 2010). New roads certainly 3,260 million versus 29 million international for China;
have led to losses of forest (Boakes et al., 2010; Laurance and 1,600 million domestic tourism trips versus 70 million
et al., 2015) but with highly varied impacts depending on international for the US (UN, 2017).
their contexts – from large losses to no net effects, across
tropical forests in Latin America, to even some positive Between 2009 and 2013, tourism’s global carbon footprint
effects in more highly populated and developed areas, rose from by 40%, from 3.9 to 4.5 GtCO2-eq, accounting
such as within India. The indirect effects of transportation for ~8% of global greenhouse gas emissions (Lenzen
investments through transport costs, and related responses, et al., 2018), with transport a big contributor. In 2010,
can be much bigger than the direct effects of projects tourism required 16,700 PJ of energy, 138 km3 of fresh
(Edwards et al., 2014; Weng et al., 2013). water, 62,000 km2 of land, and 39.4 Mt of food (Gössling
& Peeters, 2015). Yet impacts vary considerably: one-night
Increasing human encroachment, land reclamation, accommodations require 3.7 - 3,700 MJ of energy depending
and coastal development have big impacts on coastal on the luxury conditions of accommodations and transport.
environments (UN, 2017) including on nature, e.g., Largest increases have been observed for the most resource-
mangroves that help with resilience. To meet growing land demanding options for the growing global class of wealthy
demand for housing and recreation, industry, commerce, travelers (UN, 2017). Most of the footprint of tourism is
and agriculture, large-scale land reclamation projects are exerted by high income countries. These rapid increases
increasing along coasts, although coastal protection is also in demand are effectively outstripping decarbonizations of
increasing. Large-scale dredging has occurred in several tourism-related technology (Lenzen et al., 2018).
countries in Asia and the Middle East, beyond the near-
shore environments, for creation of airports, tourism facilities Demands for nature-based and eco-tourism also have risen.
and islands. Land reclamation is linked to the degradation While the latter aims for consistency with conservation by
of wetlands, seagrass beds and decreased coastal water operating at small spatial scales to minimize ecological and
quality, with negative impacts on regional groundwater social impacts, the former often operates at larger spatial
regimes discharges to the coasts. scales and promotes national development objectives
(Brandon, 1996). Their effects are, thus, quite different. The
Challenges posed by the growth of infrastructure vary number of visitors to 280 protected areas within 20 countries
by country (Bai et al., 2017; McGranahan et al., 2005), has been increasing over time in all countries, particularly in
typically with more and better infrastructure as income those with lower income levels − with the exception of the
rises (World Bank, 1994). High income countries have built United States and Japan (Balmford et al., 2009).
113
2.1.11.8 Relocations (of goods and 2012; Jones et al., 2018), they yield multiple direct and
indirect benefits for nature and people: increased material
people)
benefits from nature; climate regulation; and also spiritual
Transportation of goods and people has risen drastically in gains (Benayas & Bullock, 2012; Brancalion et al., 2014;
recent decades (see also 2.1.11.6). The number of air flights IPBES, 2018a). Restoring the structure and function of
has doubled, globally, and tripled for high income OECD degraded ecosystems contributes to longer-term ecosystem
countries (Figure S23), while seaborne carriage of oil has resilience (Kaiser-Bunbury et al., 2017; Suding, 2011) as
doubled, general cargo has quadrupled, and the carriage well as to short-term mitigation and adaptations to climate
of grain and minerals has nearly quintupled. Voyage lengths change (Locatelli et al., 2015). Restoration is an obvious
also have increased (UN, 2017). complement to conservation for biodiversity (Possingham
et al., 2015) and ecosystem services. Ultimately, its goals
Relocation of goods and people has direct, indirect and depend on the extent and nature of degradation and local
cumulative impacts on nature (Rodrigue et al., 2016). Noise needs and decision processes. Recovery of the prior “intact”
and toxic emissions – e.g., carbon monoxide – directly ecosystem may not be possible, or desirable, in some
cause harm. Catastrophic events involving ships (such as contexts (Hobbs et al., 2014).
collisions, fires, foundering, wrecks) produce serious direct
impact on marine ecosystems (UN, 2017). Indirect effects International conventions recognize the importance of
include chronic impact along frequent trade routes (Figure restoration at national and global scales. Restoration is a
2.1.13). Cumulative impacts include those upon the global key piece of Aichi Biodiversity Targets 14 and 15 established
climate, with 15% of the global CO2 emissions associated by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). Ecosystem-
with the transportation sector (Rodrigue et al., 2016), and landscape-scale restorations are also approaches of the
and more than 3.5% of climate forcing attributed to air UN Convention to Combat Desertification, UN Convention
transportation (Lee et al., 2010). on Climate Change, Ramsar Convention on wetlands,
Convention on Migratory Species, and Sustainable
Introduction of invasive alien species is linked to Development Goals. The Bonn Challenge to restore
transportation of goods and people. In both the 20th and 150 million hectares of forest 2020 was expanded by a
21st centuries, trade was one of the most important factors United Nations’ New York Declaration on Forests to restore
in the widespread distribution of invasive alien species in 350 million ha by 2030 (IUCN, 2015). This is not just to plant
both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems (Hulme, 2009; trees but also to use regenerated forest sustainably, manage
Seebens et al., 2016) (Early 2006). Accidental introductions tree plantations, agroforestry and agricultural systems, and
of invertebrates and algae had steep increases recently, protect wildlife reserves with ecological corridors or river or
as those species are difficult to regulate and are closely lakeside planting to protect water (IPBES, 2018a). No similar
associated with increasing human activity such as trade, global-scale challenge has yet been proposed for restoration
migration, and tourism (Hulme, 2009; Kowarik, 2011). of non-forest ecosystems.
Restoration is implemented by state agencies, local

2.1.11.9 Restoration communities, non-government organizations, and
the private sector. Approaches range from passive to
With degradation currently impacting the well-being of at active interventions, with distinct costs, limitations, and
least 3.2 billion people, with losses of more than 10% of outcomes. Passive approaches that rely on natural recovery
the annual global gross product (IPBES, 2018a), there is mechanisms have the highest rates and extent of recovery
an urgent need for restoration to avoid biodiversity loss, overall (Jones et al., 2018), particularly for tropical forests
mitigate climate change, and ensure continued global ‘life (Crouzeilles et al., 2017). Interventions can focus on specific
support’ (Aronson & Alexander, 2013; Navarro et al., 2017). habitats and ecosystems or at the scale of landscapes,
Sustainable land management practices, with restoration encompassing mosaics of different land uses, ecosystems
actions to avoid, reduce and reverse land degradation, have and land covers.
been shown to provide benefits that exceed their costs in
many places, though their overall effectiveness is context- Yet large gaps remain between restoration targets and
dependent (IPBES, 2018a). While financial costs are easy to achievements, reflecting gaps in capacity, finance, policy,
quantify and can seem high, assessing restoration’s short-, and enforcement (Stevens & Dixon, 2017). Restoration is
medium-, and long-term effects on nature’s contributions legally mandated in some countries (e.g., Brazil, China),
is challenging. They are not all perceived and valued particularly after certain activities (e.g., mining or wetland
(IPBES, 2018a). drainage or as related to required protections for rivers
and streams). Compensatory restoration, required in some
While recoveries due to restoration of ecosystems and countries, requires the party responsible for ecological
landscape may not be complete (Benayas & Bullock, damage to compensate the public for ecosystem services
114
loss (Rohr et al., 2018). In other cases, biodiversity offsets Fisheries (CCRF) in 1995 has contributed to lowering IUU
create a mechanism for off-site restoration to compensate fishing. While this is voluntary, Australia, Malaysia, Namibia,
for the biodiversity losses caused by development projects. Norway and South Africa, have incorporated provisions into
For example, to offset vegetation losses due to industrial national law. Recent improvements in vessel monitoring
development of oil palm during 1973–2013, the industry systems are available, for both larger- and small-scale
would need to restore natural vegetation across 8.7% of fishing vessels, providing geo-referenced descriptions
Kalimantan (Budiharta et al., 2018) in order to get to no net of fishing areas and at scales useful for policy (Global
loss (rather than, e.g., any net gain). Fishing Watch, 2018; Kroodsma et al., 2018; McCauley et
al., 2016).
Achieving restoration targets in international treaties and
conventions will require avoiding more degradation and Illegal forestry has important negative consequences on
conversion of ecosystems, plus effective and long-lasting forests, aggregate economic wellbeing, and livelihoods
restoration practices at national scales (Chazdon et al., of forest communities (Smith, 2004). Hoare (2015)
2017). With climate and biodiversity policies, this is a basis has estimated that 80 million m3 of timber was illegally
for progress on sustainable futures (Aronson & Alexander, produced in 2013 by the nine main producers in tropical
2013; Benayas & Bullock, 2012; Brancalion et al., 2014; countries. Overall illegal logging is estimated to be
Budiharta et al., 2018; Chazdon et al., 2017; Crouzeilles et 10–15% of global timber production (Brack & Hayman,
al., 2017; De Groot et al., 2013; Egoh et al., 2014; Hobbs et 2001; RIIA, 2017; SCA & WRI, 2004) though rates of
al., 2014; IUCN, 2015; Jones et al., 2018; Kaiser-Bunbury up to 50% are reported for several countries (Guertin,
et al., 2017; Locatelli et al., 2015; Navarro et al., 2017; 2003; Tacconi et al., 2003). In 2013, Indonesia (50%),
Possingham et al., 2015; Rohr et al., 2018; Stevens & Brazil (25%) and Malaysia (10%) accounted for most of
Dixon, 2017; Suding, 2011; Suding et al., 2015; Verdone & the illegal timber harvests worldwide, with large timber
Seidl, 2017). sectors (Hoare, 2015), while Ghana, Cameroon, DRC,
Laos, Papua New Guinea and Republic of Congo are
also large contributors, with much higher proportions of
2.1.11.10 Illegal activities with production being illegal (e.g., almost all DRC production)
direct impacts on nature (Hoare, 2015). In 2013, illegal logging emitted over 190
million tons of CO2, more than total emissions from
Illegal activities constitute major threats to nature and Denmark, Norway and Sweden (Hoare, 2015). Economic
livelihoods. In maritime regions, they add to depletion impacts are largely revenue losses for states and, in
of fish stocks. Coastal zones of developing countries some cases, private forest owners. These hurt livelihoods
are particularly susceptible to illegal, unreported or for forest-dependent people and displacements of
unregulated (IUU) fishing that peaked during the mid- people through corrupt land and forest acquisition
1990s. In 2011, IUU fishing was estimated at 26m or 33% practices (Pokorny et al., 2016; Tacconi, 2007b). Illegal
of global catch including fish and other marine fauna (UN, production of biofuel is large especially in Africa. Most
2017) and 20–32% by weight of wild-caught seafood wood pellets and fuelwood in Asia and the Pacific and
imported to the US (Pramod et al., 2014). Locally, IUU Latin America are produced legally at medium to large
fishing is highest off West Africa, estimated at ~40% of scale, yet in Africa a significant share is associated with
total catch, with 32% in the Southwest Atlantic and as small-scale, poor, informal actors (Mohammed et al.,
much as 1.5 million tons/year in Indonesia (Figure 2.1.14; 2015). Fuelwood harvesting has the most effects on dry
Agnew et al., 2009). Note that 70% of vessels known forest, grassland and savannas.
to be linked to IUU fishing are flagged under tax-haven
jurisdictions (Galaz et al., 2018). A number of factors have contributed to drive illegal
logging, beyond the costs and the returns from sustainable
IUU fishing is lucrative, due to high-value species plus no forest management (Pokorny & Pacheco, 2014),
taxes − as is permitted by weak governance (Fisheries including quite poor investment incentives for companies
and Oceans Canada, 2009). While efforts have improved (Contreras-Hermosilla, 2001), poor governance ranging
oceans governance over the last decade, not all regions from weak enforcement capacity (Ehara et al., 2018) and
are overseen by regional fishery management organizations over-regulation to corruption including infringements of
(RFMO) while not all RFMOs are effective in monitoring weak property rights (Alemagi & Kozak, 2010; Cerutti et
and controlling IUU fishing. The Agreement on Port al., 2013; Contreras-Hermosilla, 2001; Pokorny, 2013;
State Measures to Prevent, Deter and Eliminate Illegal, Pokorny et al., 2016; Smith et al., 2003; Tacconi, 2007a).
Unreported and Unregulated Fishing (PSMA), which came Most of the reported illegal logging is industrial logging in
into force in June 2016, has grown to 54 parties (with all developing countries, yet small scale (artisanal or chainsaw)
28 EU members counting as just one). Endorsement by and on-farm illegal logging has been reported as quite
170 states of the FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible significant in some cases (Cerutti et al., 2013; Hoare,
115
2015). Its growth is explained by two factors. First, it is the Poaching also greatly threatens biodiversity (Clarke &
increased timber sourcing from secondary forests, fallows Rolf, 2013) and is rising (Figure 2.1.14c) given increasing
and farms as natural forest concessions move further demands for bushmeat, traditional medicine, souvenirs, pets
away with corresponding increases in transport costs. and luxury goods (Hofer et al., 1996). Poaching has pushed
Second, it is the reduction in illegal industrial logging due to many species to the brink of extinction, even those in the
improvements in transparency. IUCN’s list of threatened species, e.g., rhinos and tigers.
A ILLEGAL FORESTRY
30
% OF ILLEGAL FORESTRY
PRODUCER COUNTRIES
(without Papua New Guinea)
20 PROCESSING COUNTRIES
CONSUMER COUNTRIES
10
2000 2004 2008 2012
YEAR
B ILLEGAL FISHERIES
40 ATLANTIC
% OF ILLEGAL FISHERIES
INDIAN
30 PACIFIC
ANTARTIC
20
10
1984 1989 1994 1999 2003
YEAR
C ANIMAL POACHING TIGER

NUMBER OF ANIMALS PER YEAR
1600
RHINO
ELEPHANTS
1200 LEOPARD
BEAR
800
400
2000 2005 2010 2015
YEAR
Figure 2 1 14 Trends in illegal extractions from nature.

A Producers, processers, and buyers of illegal wood: Percentage of total from 2000 to 2014, B Illegal fisheries: percentage
of total fisheries that is illegal by region from 1984 to 2003, C Animal poaching: total number of animals per year from 2000
to 2017. Sources: Illegal forestry: Hoare (2015); Illegal fisheries: Agnew et al. (2009); Illegal poaching: data from the Wildlife
Protection Society of India (http://www.wpsi-india.org/) for India only (Leopard/Tiger) and from http://www.poachingfacts.com/,
reporting for some countries only and considering only years with consistent presence of data (Rhino/Elephant/Bear).
116
Various international organizations (e.g., WWF, IUCN) and

agreements (e.g., CITES) include considerable efforts to
2.1.12 DIRECT DRIVERS
eliminate poaching and countries (Kenya, Tanzania, South OVERVIEW: AGGREGATING
Africa) have taken drastic measures to control it and punish
poachers, e.g., applying ‘shoot-on-site’ (Messer, 2010).
IMPACTS ACROSS
While some of these mechanisms have slightly decreased SECTORS
poaching in many countries, it is still difficult to bust the
invisible connections between the poachers and the Human actions to satisfy needs and goals − as above fisheries,
recipients or users of animal parts. agriculture, logging, harvesting, mining, infrastructure, tourism,
transport, restoration − clearly affect nature quite considerably.
Poaching has been promoted, to date, by several factors. Their aggregated impacts are classified in IPBES into five
Corruption, combined with different standards with respect categories of direct drivers: land-use / sea-use change;
to poaching bans, has greatly weakened law enforcement resource extraction; pollution; invasive and alien species; and
(Smith et al., 2003). There is a lack of detection of tons of climate change. Each of these are addressed in independent
animal parts, or live animals, crossing political boundaries sections below, with an introductory overview.
including international borders. Further, poor infrastructure,
together with poorly equipped personnel engaged in Overall temporal trends (Figure 2.1.12, maps in Figure
trying to control poaching in many of the countries where 2.1.15, Figure S18 for IPBES regions) for the 5 categories
it primarily takes place, reduces timely responses when of direct drivers show steady increases over the past
a poaching incident is reported. But even when policy five decades, across the planet, with differences across
instruments officially are in place and their implementation trends. Rates of land-use change are lower relative to
is in fact being actively attempted, the lucrative financial several decades ago although still accelerating in selected
gains for poaching driven by the high demand for animal countries, given urbanization, agriculture and grazing.
parts and live animals have pushed poachers to discover Extraction of living biomass has increased overall, yet
innovative means of evasion (Knapp, 2012; Lindsey et al., while some countries dramatically raised output, others
2013; Milner-Gulland & Leader-Williams, 1992; Warchol & did the opposite as they outsourced their demands.
Kapla, 2012). Pollution has diverse patterns. Total greenhouse gas
A LAND USE CHANGE 1992-2015

CHANGES IN THE PROPORTION OF URBAN AND
CULTIVATED AREAS
% yr-1
0.045
0.001
B RESOURCE EXTRACTION 1980-2013

CHANGES IN TOTAL RESOURCE EXTRACTION IN
MILLION TONS PER YEAR
Mi Tones yr-1
6000
-8000
C POLLUTION 1980-2015
CHANGES IN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN
TONS OF CO2 EQUIVALENT
Mi Tones yr-1
14000
-9000
D ALIEN SPECIES 1950-2000

RELATIVE CHANGES IN CUMULATIVE NUMBER OF
RECORDS OF ALIEN SPECIES
117
14000
C POLLUTION 1980-2015
CHANGES IN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN
TONS OF CO2 EQUIVALENT

Mi Tones yr-1
14000
-9000
D ALIEN SPECIES 1950-2000

RELATIVE CHANGES IN CUMULATIVE NUMBER OF
RECORDS OF ALIEN SPECIES
14000
-9000
E CLIMATE CHANGE 1950-2015

CHANGES IN MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE IN
DEGREE CELSIUM
1045
Figure 2 1 15 Temporal trends per country for direct drivers

A Land use change: changes in the proportion of urban and cultivated areas within each country calculated using country area
data and Global Cover data 1992-2015 (see Chapter 2.2 for further details); B Resource extraction: changes in total resource
extraction per year in million tons for 1980-2000, C Pollution: changes in greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs, HFCs,
PFCs, SF6, NF3) emissions in tons of CO2 equivalent for 1980-2015. D Invasive alien species: changes in cumulative number
of records of alien species for 1950-2005; E Climate change: changes in mean annual temperature in degree Celsius for 1950-
2000 using Chelsa Climate Data. Sources: Hijmans et al. (2005), OECD (2018a), Ritchie & Roser (2018), Seebens et al. (2018),
World Bank (2018p), WU (2015).
emission has doubled since 1980 (Figure S17, S27) while the appropriation), followed by forestry, the construction of
human-induced warming reached ~1°C (±0.2°C) above infrastructure, and human-induced fires (22%) (Krausmann
pre-industrial levels in 2017 (see section 2.1.17). While air et al., 2013). Several biodiversity hotspots have been shown
pollution is highest for least developed and lower income to present very small areas of no or low human footprint, as
countries, important decreases in the rates of emission of is the case of Western Australia, Tropical Andes, Northern
greenhouse gas emissions are observed in some of the Cerrado and Central Asian Mountains (Venter et al., 2016).
developed and higher-income countries, due to increased Lowest appropriation values (11–12%) are found in Central
awareness, as well as changes in policies linked to energy Asia, the Russian Federation, and Oceania (including
sources. Also, the increase is greatest for intermediate − Australia), while the highest ones are found in Southern Asia
but fastest growing − income levels, developing countries (63%), as well as Eastern and Southeastern Europe (52%).
(Figure 2.1.12), where population and income are
increasing sharply. Alien species are escalating, especially A global map of anthropogenic impact on marine ecosystems
for developed countries where the arrivals started earliest, (Halpern et al., 2008) revealed that by 2007, around 40% of
and populations are both dense and dynamic. Current the world’s ocean surface was affected by multiple drivers,
cumulative records of alien species are ~40 times larger such as changes in sea temperature, by-catch, habitat
in developed than in least developed countries. Though transformation, ocean acidification, and ocean pollution.
comparable across Europe and Central Asia, the Americas An evaluation of the changes between 2008 and 2013
and Asia and the Pacific, they are ~4 times lower in Africa (Halpern et al., 2015) revealed that more than 65% of the
(Figure S29). Finally, while climate change is of course a ocean experienced increases in cumulative impact during
global phenomenon, with global mixing of emissions, some that period. Globally, increases in climate change related
countries are particularly challenged by the fastest rates of stressors, including sea surface temperature anomalies,
changes (see below − and also trends by units of analysis in ocean acidification and ultraviolet radiation, drove most of
chapter 2.2 complement this section). the increase in cumulative impact. Yet, impacts from most
commercial fishing operations decreased in 70–80% of the
Humanity’s footprint has touched 75% of the terrestrial ocean (Halpern et al., 2015), confirming previous suggestions
world and much of the oceans (Venter et al., 2016). 25% of (Pauly et al., 2002; Worm et al., 2009) that global catch has
the world’s terrestrial potential primary productivity has been stabilized or is declining in most parts of the ocean, and that
appropriated largely through cropping and grazing (78% of well-managed fisheries are achieving sustainable yields.
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2.1.13 DIRECT DRIVERS: Other important drivers of the consequential expansion of

agriculture − and shift in landscapes − include ongoing shifts
LAND/SEA-USE CHANGES toward animal-based diets (Alexander et al., 2015; Rask
& Rask, 2011) as well as the collapse of the Soviet Union,
which triggered the abandonment of farms and, thereby,
2.1.13.1 Expansion of agriculture recoveries of prairies, woodlands and forests (Alcantara et
and cities al., 2012; Bauman et al., 2011; Hostert et al., 2011; Ioffe
et al., 2012; Kuemmerle et al., 2008), although some of the
Over half the Earth’s land surface is under cover types of latter shifts were followed by a more recent re-cultivation
anthropic origin, including agricultural lands, pasture and in Southern Russia, Ukraine and Northern Kazakhstan
range lands, and cities (Foley et al., 2005; Hooke et al., (Meyfroidt et al., 2013).
2012). Agricultural expansion is by far the most widespread
form of land cover change, with over one third of the Following all of this, the global extent of wetlands has
terrestrial land surface currently being used for cropping declined by 30% between 1970 and 2008 (Dixon et al.,
or animal husbandry at the expense of forests, wetlands, 2016), and total loss has been estimated to be as much as
prairies and many other natural land cover types (FAO, 87% (IPBES, 2018a). Losses were greatest in the tropics
2016a; Foley et al., 2005). Population growth (Nelson et and sub-tropics, where population growth and agricultural
al., 2010), followed by urbanization and raising incomes, expansion were also highest (UNEP, 2016c). In the last two
which are then linked to increasing per capita resource decades, peatland cover has reduced from 77% to 36%
consumption (Liu et al., 2003), clearly are major drivers of (Miettinen et al., 2012). Peatlands are largely found in South-
deforestation (Lambin & Meyfroidt, 2011). East Asia, which contains an estimated 56% of all of the
tropical peatlands by area (Page et al., 2011).
Over five decades, the largest per cent changes in land use
are associated with urban areas (Figure 2.1.12, Figure
2.1.15, Figure S24). City areas doubled in 1992–2015. The 2.1.13.2 Fragmentation
most severe increases were for tropical and subtropical
savannas and grasslands, deserts and xeric shrublands, Land-cover change has increasingly fragmented remaining
where the urban areas tripled. land cover (see chapter 2.2). Currently, about 20% of the
forest areas around the world are close (<100 m) to a forest
Agricultural area increased by over 100 million hectares edge, while 70% are within 1 km (Haddad et al., 2015).
between 1980 and 2000 across the tropics, half at the Only 20% of tropical areas hold forest areas larger than
expense of intact tropical forests (Gibbs et al., 2010). 500 km2 (Potapov et al., 2017). The global extent of such
Pasture for cattle contributed to the largest agricultural land areas decreased by 7.2% in the last decade (Potapov
expansion in Latin America, with an increase of ~35 million et al., 2017), as a result of industrial logging, agricultural
ha in South America and ~7 million ha in Central America expansion, fire, and mining/resource extraction. The
(Gibbs et al., 2010). In 1980–2000, cropland area increased certification of logging concessions under responsible
by half in East Africa and a quarter in West Africa, while management had negligible impact in terms of slowing this
falling in Central Africa (Gibbs et al., 2010). Africa lost fragmentation (Potapov et al., 2017).
the highest share of tropical forests in the 1980s, 1990s,
and early 2000s (IPBES, 2018b). In Southeast Asia tree
plantations occupy the largest share of agricultural land, 2.1.13.3 Landscape/seascape
which rose by 7 million ha in 1980–2000, while by the 1990s management intensification
oil palm was responsible for over 80% of the expansion
in tree plantations (Gibbs et al., 2010). Timber extraction Technological advances in agriculture, fisheries, aquaculture,
and fuelwood collection have also led to forest loss, while and forestry over the last 50 years (see 2.1.5) led to increases
opening land for agriculture (Haines-Young, 2009; Hooke et in extraction, yields, and investments (in machinery and
al., 2012). Yet, fuelwood collection is not a main driver, as it inputs), while often increasing the area of influence of
is based on collection of dry wood. these activities (farms or fishing grounds). The IPBES Land
Degradation Assessment showed that intensive land use can
Deforestation rates are generally falling, with varying patterns lead to progressive changes in ecosystem functions and, in
across countries. China has seen high afforestation (FAO, cases, irreversible changes then land abandonment (IPBES,
2015b), due to conservation and restoration over 30 years, 2018a).
in particular since 2000 (Viña et al., 2016). In contrast,
despite conservation policies in the 2000s (Macedo et Livestock density and herd management are the
al., 2012; Nepstad et al., 2014), Brazil continues to have main causes of rangeland degradation, which can be
significant deforestation (FAO, 2015b). exacerbated by changes in fire regimes and harvesting
119
(IPBES, 2018a). Asia has the most rapid grassland change including pastoralists and smallholder farmers tending lands
(Akiyama & Kawamura, 2007). Agricultural intensification disproportionately vulnerable to degradation (IPBES, 2018a).
in regions has been linked to the stabilization or even
reductions in agricultural land area, particularly for the sub- Soil degradation includes loss of soil as well as changes
Saharan African region (Ausubel et al., 2013; Brink & Eva, in its physical, chemical and biological properties (IPBES,
2009; Lambin & Meyfroidt, 2011; Ramankutty et al., 2006; 2018a). Erosion causes nutrient loss (Lal, 2014) and
van der Sluis et al., 2016; van Vliet et al., 2015; Wood et al., reduction of agricultural productivity, plus flooding, water
2004). When linked to subsistence agricultural production pollution and sedimentation of reservoirs (Munodawafa,
with low soil fertilities, low usage of agrochemicals, and low 2007; Rickson, 2014). Erosion may also negatively affect the
yields, this has led to reductions for natural land cover types global carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles (Chen et al.,
(Brink & Eva, 2009; Wood et al., 2004). Yet, agricultural 2010b; Quinton & Catt, 2007). Indeed, soil organic carbon,
intensifications have led to increases in yields that have has fallen globally from land conversion and unsustainable
come at the cost of an accelerated pollution of both soils land management practices (IPBES, 2018a). Reliable global
and water (IPBES, 2018a) estimates of the magnitude and extent of soil erosion
are unavailable but its occurrence in all countries can be
confirmed (IPBES, 2018a).
2.1.13.4 Land degradation
Soil acidification is associated with atmospheric deposition
Land degradation is the reduction or loss of biological or of strong acids (acid rain), as a result of emissions of sulfur
economic productivity and complexity (including soil erosion, dioxide and nitrogen oxides exacerbated by anthropogenic
deterioration in physical, chemical, biological or economic activities. Acid deposition on poor soils covered by
properties of soils and long-term loss of vegetation) of temperate forests (Driscoll et al., 2001; Greaver et al., 2012),
cropland, rangeland, pastureland forest and woodlands in forest and crop harvesting (especially if frequent) (Likens
arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas, that results from et al., 1998) and loss of nutrients due to rain and irrigation
land uses or form a combination of processes, including (leaching) (Lawrence et al., 1987) can all exacerbate
those arising from human activities and habitation patterns its effects.
(IPBES, 2018a). Degradation is occurring in all land cover,
land use and landscape types, in all countries (IPBES, Global soils in over 100 countries are affected by salinity,
2018a). Degradation is hard to measure (Herold et al., linked to climate change and increased use of irrigation for
2011; Houghton, 2012; IPBES, 2018a; Lambin, 1999), production of crops (Squires & Glenn, 2009). Salinity occurs
given a paucity of data and the absence of estimates, naturally, yet it is often exacerbated by irrigation at rates not
especially in the tropics (Houghton, 2012). Degradation adequate to exceed evapotranspiration rates (FAO & ITPS,
is driven by multiple drivers including land use change, 2015), by poor drainage or groundwater levels near the soil
intensification, pollution, and invasive alien species, many surface (< 2m), by the use of brackish water to irrigate, by
distant from where impacts are felt (IPBES, 2018a). Loss intrusion of seawater near coastal areas, and by shifts from
in forests, for example, are linked to uncontrolled logging deep rooted perennial vegetation to shallow rooted annual
(Tacconi, 2007b), fires, agricultural expansion (Lawrence, crops and pastures (FAO & ITPS, 2015).
2005; Van Vliet et al., 2012) and also charcoal (Ahrends et
al., 2010; Chidumayo & Gumbo, 2013). Most prominent
in Latin America and Asia is timber extraction while, in
Africa, it is fuelwood and charcoal (48%) (Hosonuma et
al., 2012; Kissinger et al., 2012). Desertification, i.e. land
degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas,
is particularly severe for 38% of the world’s population,
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2.1.14 DIRECT DRIVERS: 2.1.14.2 Freshwater withdrawals

RESOURCE EXTRACTION Freshwater resources are unevenly distributed. About one
third of the Earth’s land subsurface is underlain by relatively
homogenous aquifers (exclude the Antarctic), often in large
2.1.14.1 Rates of extraction of sedimentary basins with suitable conditions for groundwater
living and nonliving materials exploitation (WHYMAP & Margat, 2008). Asia (30.72%)
from nature harbors most of these aquifers, followed by Africa (28.48%),
Central/South America (17.64%), Europe (10.88%), North
Extraction of living biomass and nonliving materials is increasing America (6.78%) and Oceania (5.49%). Most of the largest
as both populations and per capita consumption (Figure global aquifer systems are found within Africa (35%),
2.1.4, Figure 2.1.12, Figure 2.1.15) increased sixfold followed by Asia (27%), the Americas (22%), Europe
from 1970 to 2010, while the demand for materials used in (11%) and Oceania (5%) (Richey et al., 2015; WHYMAP &
construction and industry quadrupled during that time.Materials Margat, 2008).
for construction and industry increased 4-fold, with the most
dramatic increases for lower-middle (7-fold) and upper-middle Global water withdrawals are hard to calculate, as their
income countries (11-fold) and the Asia and the Pacific region estimation depends upon reliable data at the local and
(10-fold for whole region) (Robinson & Bennett, 2004; Schandl country level, yet reliable data are limited to a few countries.
& Eisenmenger, 2006; Schandl et al., 2016) and, generally, Estimations by FAO suggest that water withdrawals
the growing economies (Figure S18, Figure S25, Figure S26). have risen from less than 600 km3/year in 1900 to nearly
The use of biomass, fossil fuels, metal ores and non-metallic 4,000 km3/year in 2010, faster than population growth
minerals doubled from 2005 (26.3 billion tons) to 2015 (46.4 (FAO, 2011c). The surface waters of key river basins such
billion tons), growing an annual rate of 6.1%. as the Colorado, the Huang-He (Yellow River), the Indus,
the Nile, the Syr Darya, and the Amu Darya are heavily used
Yet extraction rates varied widely by country, barely (WRI, 2000) and 21 of 37 aquifers have exceeded their
increasing in Africa since 1970 (Schandl et al., 2016). The ‘sustainability tipping points’ during 2003–2013 (Richey
global shares for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, et al., 2015). Increased groundwater extraction has been
and West Asia were relatively constant over four decades, attributed to agricultural use (69%), industrial use (19%) and
with all growing in total volume, while Europe and North direct human consumption (12%) (FAO, 2011c; Wada et
America fell sharply in terms of their global shares of al., 2014) with growing populations, industries and, more
direct extraction (Schandl et al., 2016). These differences generally, economies (Alcamo et al., 2003; FAO, 2011c;
may reflect sectoral shares (see above), as extraction for Mekonnen & Hoekstra, 2011).
agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting only doubled in 50 years
but construction and industry rose more (WU, 2015). Depletion of water resources interacts with many biophysical
and societal drivers to contribute to negative impacts on
Cascading effects of extraction can be manifested as nature and societies. Withdrawals, with climate change,
biodiversity losses and accelerated changes in climate lower mean annual run-off across river basins in Asia and
(Butchart et al., 2010), most prominently in tropical forests, America (Haddeland et al., 2014), as well as water quality
marine, coastal and polar ecosystems (Bradshaw et al., 2009; (Navarro-Ortega et al., 2015). Depletion threatens water
Geist & Lambin, 2002). Some types of extraction also result and food security, alters hydrological regimes (Arroita et
in land-use change, with consequences for biodiversity, soil al., 2017), induces land degradation (Dalin et al., 2015),
erosion and degradation, GHG emissions, and potential loss and conflicts (Richey et al., 2015). Threats from excessive
of an array ecosystem services (Geist & Lambin, 2002). extraction are pronounced in arid and semi-arid regions
(Haddeland et al., 2014). Irrigated agriculture leads to drastic
Extraction beyond sustainable levels has consequences for effects on wetlands and wildlife conservation (Lemly et
biological dynamics and ecosystem function. Yet assessing al., 2000).
what levels of extraction of resources are sustainable is
very complex, as species- and context-specific efforts are Facing scarcities, improved agricultural and water
needed. Impacts of overexploitation can be observed in life management practices have been developed to reduce
histories, genetic patterns of populations, and community water stress. Successful cases involving smallholder
and ecosystem functions (Ticktin, 2004). Wildlife extraction farmers have received considerable attention in recent
through hunting from tropical forests, for instance, is years. In those involving Indigenous Peoples, land and
estimated to be well above the sustainable rate (Bradshaw water management have been integrated (Critchley et al.,
et al., 2009) and for terrestrial species, exploitation (26%) is 2008) − suggesting that improvements are possible despite
the second most common threat preceded only by habitat decreasing aggregate resource availability at global scales
loss (50%) (WWF, 2016). (Pretty et al., 2000).
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2.1.15 DIRECT DRIVERS: for emissions, in some cases, to have fallen for higher
incomes while increasing for lower incomes.
POLLUTION
The reduction in GHG emissions in developed countries
Quantitative assessments of pollution are limited to a few is actually a transference of GHG to developing countries,
systematically monitored variables − with inconsistent referred to as “GHG leakage”, through international trade,
data quantity and quality across countries. The most which accounts for ~30% of CO2 emissions (see also
robust available data are from remote monitoring, 2.1.6.3.2) (Aichele & Felbermayr, 2015; Kanemoto et al.,
including greenhouse gas emissions and the presence 2014). In fact, higher-income countries did not actually
of aerosols (i.e., particulate matter). Country data on reduce emissions, but just shifted them. For instance,
access to improved sanitation (e.g., municipal waste or during the 1990–2011 period, developed countries
use of pesticides or fertilizers) is available (FAO, 2018a, reduced emissions by 1.59 Gt while developing countries
2018d; OECD, 2018b; Ritchie & Roser, 2018; World Bank, increased emissions by 13.7 Gt. However, after assessing
2018h), although again with varied data quantity and the CO2 leakage by assigning responsibility to consumers,
quality. Significant emissions into the atmosphere, water in 2011 developed countries transferred 2.95 Gt of CO2
bodies, and terrestrial systems from industrial activities and to developing countries through trade (Kanemoto et al.,
households remain unquantified. Yet, currently available data 2014). Developed countries shifted their non-CO2 GHGs
on related metrics suggest that the global pollution levels emissions to developing countries even more strongly than
have increased at rates at least comparable to the total they did for CO2.
population growth.
Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are associated with
roads transport, energy production, and many commercial,
2.1.15.1 Emissions into the institutional and household activities. NOx emissions
atmosphere contribute to acid deposition and eutrophication and have
drastically increased. Asia, including the Middle East,
Population growth, economic activity, energy consumption accounts for ~30% of the global emissions. NOx emission
and technology drive anthropogenic greenhouse gas levels have decreased in the US and in Western Europe,
(GHG) emissions − such as carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen while increasing in Africa over the last decade (Figure S28;
oxide (NOX), and sulphur dioxide (SO2) − that trap heat in EEA, 2014; UNEP, 2016b).
the atmosphere and contribute to global climate change.
Emissions from transportation contribute GHGs and Emissions of SO2 from the combustion and oxidation of
conventional air pollutants and particulates (UNEP, 2016e). fuels and other materials have risen due to industry and
Smaller particles (PM 2.5) are important threats to human shipping. Asia showed an increasing trend since 2000,
health (WHO, 2016). GHG emissions have risen consistently, contributing 41–52% of global emissions, while emissions
combining them with small particles, all countries show from North America and Europe declined from 38% to
increases in air pollution (Figure 2.1.12, Figure S27, Figure 25%. SO2 emission from industry increased from 32% to
S28). Largest increases are found in Northern Africa, Central 38%, while those from international shipping increased from
Asia, and East Asia − due to a lack of regulations as well as 9% to 25% over the last decade (Klimont et al., 2013) as
to geological and climatic factors. trade rose.
Some countries have sharply increased CO2 emissions Emissions of particles into the atmosphere (PM2.5 -particles
since 1980, while others reduced them (Figure S28). smaller than 2.5 micrometers) are highest in least developed
Europe and the Central Asian region reached peak CO2 countries (Figure 2.1.12) and in high income oil producing
emissions in 1990, steadily decreasing since then. The Asia countries (Figure S28). Northern Africa has highest PM2.5
and the Pacific region has surpassed Europe and America emissions (De Longueville et al., 2014; Van Donkelaar et
to become the largest emitter of CO2 since 2004. Major al., 2010). Emissions due to residential energy use, such
CO2 producing regions are the United States (15%), the as heating and cooking, are prevalent in India and China.
European Union (10%) and India (6.5%), which with China Those from traffic and power are high in the US (Lelieveld et
account for 61% of the total global emissions (Olivier et al., al., 2015).
2015). CO2 emissions increased on average (14%) in Latin
America and the Caribbean, from 2006 to 2011 (UNEP, Higher levels of exposure of human population to air
2016d; World Bank, 2017c). During 2000–2010, Africa, pollution within lower-income countries, especially in
Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and North America Northern Africa and Central Asia, can be attributed to
increased 15% in methane emissions (UNEP, 2016d). Thus, climatic / geological factors (arising from, e.g., dust and
while GHG emissions are driven by economic development, storms), predominant energy sources, and agricultural
displacement of production and extraction by trade allows emissions (Lelieveld et al., 2015). Additionally, another
122
important factor is the fact that dirtier phases of industrial About a quarter of the rivers in Latin America, 10–25%
processes are exported to lower income countries with in Africa and up to 50% in Asia have severe pathogen
reduced regulations and enforcement (see also 2.1.6.3.2). pollution, largely caused by untreated wastewater (UNEP,
2016a). More than 200 types of molecules derived from
Other airborne contaminants also have had major impacts pharmaceutical processes have been measured in natural
on nature and people. Mercury enters the atmosphere waters (Pal et al., 2010; Petrie et al., 2015), frequently
from volcanoes, and coal burning, then is transported to anti-inflammatory drugs, antiepileptic, contraceptives or
areas such as the Artic, with a 10-fold increase in upper- antibiotics. These impair organisms in rivers (Brodin et al.,
trophic-level mammals such as beluga whales, over the 2014) and in estuarine and marine waters (Guler & Ford,
past 150 years (AMAP, 2018). Global emissions of nitrogen 2010; Kidd et al., 2007; UNESCO & HELCOM, 2017).
from synthetic fertilizers and the expansion of nitrogen-fixing Human health and nature concerns also include chemicals
crops are several orders of magnitude larger than pre- like dissolved metals (zinc, copper, aluminum) or surfactants,
industrial levels (Vitousek et al., 1997a). whose risks to aquatic ecosystems remain high even within
higher-income countries (Johnson et al., 2017).
Noise’s effects on nature are increasingly observed.
Expansions of human populations, transport networks and Agriculture causes most soil erosion and nutrient run-off to
extraction have a range of impacts upon species, depending freshwaters (Quinton et al., 2010). Fertilizers used in crop
on auditory capacities (Shannon et al., 2016) and noise production are also drained into continental, coastal and
wavelengths (Todd et al., 2015). Underwater noises that are marine water bodies at accelerating rates (Figure S21),
due to shipping are significant marine pollutants (Williams et with nitrogen fluxes (mainly as nitrate) rising 4- to 20-fold
al., 2015). Behavioural changes for both individuals and entire in the last decade (Camargo & Alonso, 2006; Mekonnen
ecological communities have been observed in response to a et al., 2015). Nutrients from fertilizers in continental water
wide range of noise sources and exposure levels (Shannon et bodies flow into coastal waters, stimulating excessive plant
al., 2016; Todd et al., 2015; Williams et al., 2015). growth and, in extreme conditions, hypoxia or oxygen-
depleted “dead zones” plus harmful algal blooms that affect
primary and secondary productivity (Altieri et al., 2017).
2.1.15.2 Contaminants dissolved By 2008, 494 coastal dead zones were listed. Pesticides,
in/carried by water agricultural insecticides, and newer generation molecules
(like pyrethroids and neonicotinoids) (Stehle & Schulz, 2015)
Water quality has fallen over the last five decades, with key reduce macroinvertebrate richness in rivers by up to 40%
environmental and societal impacts. Major sources include (Beketov et al., 2013; Van Dijk et al., 2013), while urban
untreated urban sewage and industrial and agricultural run- and agricultural herbicides exert effects on non-target
off, erosion, airborne pollution, and salinization, as well as species like algae (Malaj et al., 2014; Moschet et al., 2014).
oil spills and dumping of substances into the oceans. It is Ecotoxic chemical micropollutants, including pesticides,
estimated that over 80% of urban and industrial wastewater pharmaceutical residues, plastics, and dissolved metals
is released to freshwater systems without adequate all exert chronic effects and have endocrine disruptive
treatment, a volume six times as large as that in all of the properties that affect freshwater biodiversity and jeopardize
world’s rivers, i.e., 300–400 million tons of contaminants the health of water ecosystems (Beketov et al., 2013; Malaj
(UN, 2003; UN-Water, 2015; WRI, 2017; WWAP, 2012). et al., 2014; Moschet et al., 2014; Stehle & Schulz, 2015;
Van Dijk et al., 2013).
One available indicator on water quality is that of access to
improved sanitation facilities which shows very contrasting Lower water quality has led to severe changes in the
patterns among countries with different income levels, ecohydrology of water systems (Carpenter et al., 2011).
as 60% of the population in low income countries do not In the past decade, the trend of deterioration has shifted
have access to such facilities (World Bank, 2018m). Over from developed to developing countries, with increasing
600 million people lack access to safe drinking water, nearly population and economic activity (UNEP, 2016a). The Water
half in Africa, followed by Asia, then Latin America and the Quality Index (WATQI), an index ranging from 0 (worst) to
Caribbean (WHO-WEDC, 2013). Large regional variance 100 (best) that combines five parameters (pH, dissolved
in wastewater treatment includes 70% in Europe but as oxygen, total phosphorus, nitrogen concentrations,
low as 20% in Latin America (Sato et al., 2013). Untreated electrical conductivity) was 69.21 in 2012, globally, with the
urban wastewaters dumped into the environment (Beketov highest values in Europe (80.38), then Oceania (79.19), the
et al., 2013; Malaj et al., 2014; Moschet et al., 2014; Americas (76.59), Asia (76.59) and Africa (57.74) (Srebotnjak
Stehle & Schulz, 2015; Van Dijk et al., 2013) contain fecal et al., 2012). Climate change, hydrologic flow modification,
coliforms, organic pollutants (UNEP, 2016b, 2016c, 2016d, land-use change, and aquatic invasive species interact
2016e, 2016f), heavy metals, and pharmaceutical residues with other drivers of water pollution (Carpenter et al., 2011;
(Cleuvers, 2004; Santos et al., 2010; Wilkinson et al., 2016). UNEP, 2016a) to help explain this significant spatial variation.
123
Marine water quality is strongly affected by oil spills and the mercury and cadmium), as well as “grey” lists (e.g. arsenic,
dumping of toxic compounds. Oil spills, toxic for marine lead, copper and zinc and their compounds, organosilicon
life and difficult to clean up, are a major contamination compounds, cyanides, fluorides and pesticides) (IMO,
source. In 1990, 1.1 million tons of oil was lost via spills. 1972). In 2003–2012, the total chemicals entering seas rose
As technologies and policies have improved, by 2015 the by 12%, down 60% in North America and Europe but up
magnitude was ~25,000 tons. Yet spills still contribute 50% in the Pacific (UN, 2017).
over 10% of oils entering the oceans (Anderson, 2013).
Marine pollution is also affected by dumping and dumping Emissions of NOx have acidified freshwater ecosystems
bans (UN, 2017). Authorities are paying more attention to (Skjelkvåle et al., 2001; Stoddard et al., 1999). Lakes and
“black” lists of substances that should not be dumped (toxic streams of eastern North America and Northern and Central
organohalogen compounds, carcinogenic substances, Europe are highly acidified, with pH values ranging from 4.5 to
A 25,000
Primary waste
generated 20,000
All waste discarded
MILLIONS METRIC TONS

All waste incinerated
All waste recycled 15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
MPW production
>10,000
1,000
100
10
0 tonnes per year
Plastic inputs from rivers
>20,000
>2,000
>200
>20
>2 tonnes per year
Figure 2 1 16 Plastic waste production and flow into global oceans.

A Trend of cumulative plastic waste generation and disposal (1950~2050); B Mass of river plastic flowing into oceans in tonnes
per year; river contributions are derived from individual watershed characteristics such as population density, mismanaged plastic
waste (MPW) production per country and monthly averaged run-off; the mode is calibrated against river plastic concentration
measurements from Europe, Asia, North, and South America. Source: Geyer et al. (2017), Lebreton et al. (2017).
124
5.8 (Doka et al., 2003; Skjelkvåle et al., 2001). Further, salinity while the top 122 polluting rivers contributed over 90% of
levels rose nearly one third in Asia, Africa and Latin America inputs − and are still largely in Asia, with a few in Africa, plus
between 1990 to 2010. Severe and moderate salinity levels South and Central America, and one in Europe (Lebreton
affect one in 10 rivers in these three continents, making it et al., 2017). Besides rivers, plastic wastes enter via
harder for poor farmers to irrigate their crops (UNEP, 2016a). mismanagement in coastal regions (Hoornweg & Bhada-
Tata, 2012; Jambeck et al., 2015).
2.1.15.3 Disposal or deposition of On average, every square kilometer of ocean has

solids 63,000 microplastic particles on its surface (Eriksen et
al., 2014; Isobe et al., 2015). Much of it is within the five
Solid wastes are increasing, globally, although it is uncertain sub-tropical ocean gyres, where ocean currents cycle and
by how much as systematic solid-waste accounting often gather marine debris. East Asian seas show concentrations
remains a challenge. Solid waste is mostly generated in 27 times the average, followed by the Caribbean and
and disposed of in cities. Waste is larger in urban areas, the Mediterranean (Law et al., 2010). Plastic is also
correlated with purchasing power (Hoornweg et al., 2013). accumulating along the shorelines (UNEP, 2016a). The ratio
Cities produce 1.3 billion tons of solid wastes, per year, for of plastic to fish by weight in the oceans was 1:5 in 2014
instance. Municipal waste per capita has doubled over the (Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2013).
last decade (Hoornweg & Bhada-Tata, 2012).
Plastic fragments are a particular concern, as they are
Solid wastes have impacts at different scales. For difficult to remove from the environment and can be
neighborhoods, ill-managed waste contributes to respiratory ingested (Barnes et al., 2009), affecting at least 267 species
ailments, diarrhea and dengue fever, sewage blockages and including 86% of all marine turtles, 44% of all seabird
therefore local floods (Hoornweg & Bhada-Tata, 2012). At species, and 43% of all marine mammals (Derraik, 2002;
the regional and global scales, solid waste emits methane, Laist, 1997). This can affect humans through food chains.
contributing to climate change, and produces leachates For instance, 25% of fish sold for human consumption in a
which contaminate the soils and aquifers. Every type of Californian market were found to have microplastics debris
disposal (incinerating, recycling, downcycling) produces (Rochman et al., 2015). Beyond macro- and micro-plastics,
adverse environmental impacts, e.g., all of them contribute plus persistent organic pollutants (POPs; Mato et al., 2001),
to GHG emissions in different ways. Solid waste disposal non-indigenous species (Barnes, 2002) and algae linked
accounts for almost 5% of the total global GHG emissions with red tides (Masó et al., 2003) are transported with
(Hoornweg & Bhada-Tata, 2012). plastics (Barnes et al., 2009), while concerns exist about
discarded fishing gear (Gilman et al., 2016).
Globally, the composition of waste is changing. Waste that
is environmentally and economically costly to dispose has
been increasing, while organic waste is decreasing. Yet,
regional variation is significant. For example, electronic
waste composed of both hazardous wastes and strategic
metals (rare earth materials), which have to be separated to
be properly disposed of or recycled, is the fastest growing
type (UNEP, 2012). Electronic waste management is poorly
regulated too, accumulating in landfills and often exported
to lower-income countries. Recycling by informal sectors
has had negative health effects (Ongondo et al., 2011;
UNEP, 2012).
Plastic pollution is escalating, and it is accumulating in

the oceans at alarming rates (Figure 2.1.16). Global
production of plastic resins and fibers rose at an annual
rate of 8.4% from 1950 to 2015, over twice as faster as
GDP (Geyer et al., 2017). Perhaps 5% ends up in oceans
due to inadequate waste management (Jambeck et al.,
2015). Globally, 1.15–2.41 million tons of plastic currently
flow from riverine systems into oceans every year (Jambeck
et al., 2015; Lebreton et al., 2017; UNEP, 2016a). The top
20 polluting rivers were mostly in Asia and accounted for
two thirds of global annual input (Lebreton et al., 2017),
125
2.1.16 DIRECT DRIVERS: 2.1.17 DIRECT DRIVERS:

INVASIVE ALIEN SPECIES CLIMATE CHANGE
(IAS)
Climate change is currently a major driver of change
Nearly one fifth of the Earth’s surface is at risk of plant and in nature, with strong direct global impacts, that also
animal invasions − including many biodiversity hotspots affect impacts of other drivers. Unprecedented rises in
(IPBES, 2018a). Alien species doubled in the last 50 years atmospheric concentrations of GHGs (namely carbon
(Figure 2.1.12, Figure 2.1.15, Figure S29; chapter 2.2; dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) across at least the
chapter 3) and threaten native species and ecosystem last 800,000 years (IPCC, 2014), are extremely likely to
services (Capinha et al., 2015; Simberloff et al., 2013; Vilà et have been the dominant cause of observed warming
al., 2010) as well as economies and human health (Kettunen trends worldwide (IPCC, 2014). Natural variations in global
et al., 2009; Pyšek & Richardson, 2010; Vilà et al., 2010). temperatures are considered to be low, as compared
to such human-induced warming. The latter is growing
The cumulative number of alien species that have been beyond a threshold that could not have been otherwise
recorded is ~40 times greater within the developed than exceeded through natural variation (Herring et al., 2016;
within least developed countries, due in part to trade and IPCC, 2014).
population but also to detection capacities (Figure 2.1.4,
Figure 2.1.6, Figure 2.1.9, Figure S29) (Seebens et al., Human-induced warming reached ~1°C (±0.2°C) above
2017, 2018). While the current recorded levels of alien pre-industrial levels in 2017, with rises of 0.2°C (±0.1°C)
species in Europe and Central Asia, the Americas, and per decade (IPCC, 2018). Impacts include thermal stress,
Asia and the Pacific are all similar, levels are lower in Africa. coral bleaching, and melting of sea and land ice (IPCC,
(Figure S29) (Seebens et al., 2017, 2018). The number of 2013). The highest velocities in temperature change are
alien species recorded is not equivalent to the number of found in flat landscapes and at higher latitudes (Loarie et
IAS, as no estimates of invasibility are available and that can al., 2009). Most land regions are warming faster than the
vary dramatically across alien species. average, most ocean regions slower (UNFCCC, 2015).
Evidence of long-term geophysical and biological changes
IAS hotspots are often in developed countries within North due to warming is now more clear in many parts of the
America, Europe and Australasia (Dawson et al., 2017). The world − such as in the retreat of mountain glaciers, the
number of established alien species, and also their rates earlier arrival of spring (Smit et al., 2001), and changes
of invasion, have risen during the last century (Aukema et in the phenological responses of vegetation (Root et al.,
al., 2010; Blackburn et al., 2015; Lambdon et al., 2008). 2003)and in primary productivity (Lucht et al., 2002).
In addition, the rate of emerging alien species – never Changes in precipitation have also occurred. Areas in
encountered before as aliens – is high, with one quarter of tropical regions have exhibited increased precipitation while
first records in 2000–2005. The rate of introduction of new areas in subtropical regions have exhibited decreased
IAS seems higher than ever before and with no signs of precipitation (Rummukainen, 2012). Precipitation has
slowing (Seebens et al., 2017, 2018). decreased more drastically in Northern and Central African
Countries and Western Asia (Hijmans et al., 2005).
Major drivers of invasions are expansions of trade networks,
higher human mobility, continuous habitat degradation and Climate models have assessed impacts of anthropogenic
climate change. The latter exacerbates nitrogen deposition forcing described above on increases in the frequencies
and increases fire frequency (Aukema et al., 2010; Early and intensities of extreme events (King et al., 2015) −
et al., 2016; IPBES, 2018a; Seebens et al., 2018). The e.g., heat waves, droughts, heavy rainfall, storms and
eradication of established IAS is very expensive (IPBES, coastal flooding (IPCC, 2018; McBean, 2004; Mitchell et
2018a; see more in chapter 2.2). al., 2006) (see chapter 4 for further details). These events
result from sporadic weather patterns (Luber & McGeehin,
2008) and they can be intensified by climate variability
(e.g., due to El Niño/Southern oscillation) (Cai et al., 2015;
L’Heureux et al., 2016; Newman et al., 2018; Weller et
al., 2016). The increase in the frequency and intensity
of such extreme events has been linked to considerable
effects on well-being, with losses of life, injuries, and also
other negative health effects, together with damages
to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision
and environmental resources (UN, 2016c). In particular,
important increases in the frequency and intensity of
126
devastating hurricanes have been projected (Bender et al., 2.1.17.2 Ocean Acidification
2010; Emanuel, 2017; Knutson et al., 2010; Ornes, 2018;
Risser & Wehner, 2017). Ocean acidification also drives loss in coastal and marine
ecosystem services. In most cases, it is generated by
The effects of all of these changes – temperature, anthropogenic CO2 emissions (Doney et al., 2009).
precipitation, and frequency and intensity of extreme Acidification results in biochemical alteration of salt water
weather events – can accumulate and interact for further ocean ecosystems (Doney et al., 2009). Current acidity
unexpected nonlinear change, with perhaps irreversible is estimated to be the highest since the extinction of
impacts on nature and nature’s contributions to people dinosaurs 65 million years ago, above levels experienced
and to society − including economic growth and food and at least over 800,000 years (Lüthi et al., 2008). Acidification
water security (Burke et al., 2015; Franzke, 2014; Friedrich is most critical for the shallow-water areas over-saturated
et al., 2016; Hegerl et al., 2011; Schneider, 2004). Climate- with calcium carbonate. The highest concentrations of
driven changes can interact with other direct drivers, at anthropogenic CO2 are in near-surface waters, as mixing
times exacerbating impacts on nature and society (IPBES, of these waters into the deeper oceans can take centuries.
2018b, 2018a). Interactions of climate with other factors About 30% of the anthropogenic CO2 is at depths
could also initiate nonlinear climate responses, yielding shallower than 200 m, while nearly 50% is at depths
more extreme and/or rapid effects of climate change shallower than 400 m (Feely et al., 2004). The pH has
(Mitchell et al., 2006). fallen more than 30% since the industrial revolution, with
a massive threat to marine biodiversity (Hoegh-Guldberg
& Bruno, 2010). Highest concentrations of anthropogenic
2.1.17.1 Sea-Level Rise carbon in the oceans are in the North Pacific (3.2 Pg
C) and the Indian Ocean (3 Pg C). If current rates of
From 1901 to 2010, the global sea level rose by 0.19m GHG emissions are not mitigated, oceans will be vastly
(0.17 to 0.21m), with an ongoing rate of rise of over 3 mm different places by the mid-to-late 21st century (Gattuso et
yr-1 across recent decades. This rate of sea-level rise (SLR) al., 2015).
is faster than that experienced across the previous two
millennia, and is likely to continue or accelerate (Alverson, Ocean acidification negatively affects marine organisms
2012; IPCC, 2014). The increase in global temperature and function, which in turn feedback to climate change.
has a direct linkage with SLR (Church et al., 2006), as SLR Acidification hinders the ability of calcifying organisms to
results from ocean thermal expansion, with reductions in build and maintain their calcium carbonate skeletons and
the glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets shells, along with creating changes in other fundamental
(Cazenave & Cozannet, 2014; IPCC, 2014). metabolic processes. Acidification also leads to increased
phytoplankton production of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) (Gypens
SLR is not homogeneous. In 1993–2012, the western & Borges, 2014; Six et al., 2013), which contributes to
Pacific Ocean exhibited a rate of SLR three times higher warming of the Earth’s temperature due to a reduction in the
than the global mean, while much of the west coast of the reflection of solar radiation. Coral bleaching may also result
Americas had a sea level reduction (Cazenave & Llovel, from ocean acidification, although complex impacts upon
2010; Stammer et al., 2013). SLR is, in turn, a contributor the multiple trophic layers are hard to evaluate and predict
to climate change acceleration (Galbraith et al., 2002; (Hattich et al., 2017; Kroeker et al., 2010).
Goodwin, 2008), and the increased severity of storm-surge
events (Church et al., 2008; Nicholls & Cazenave, 2010). Impacts of increasing CO2 upon the total Net Primary
Low-lying coastal areas, including many cities, beaches Production of marine systems and, thus, decreasing
and wetlands are the most vulnerable to flooding and land carbonate concentrations in the oceans and the atmosphere
loss from SLR (Nicholls & Cazenave, 2010; Sallenger et al., remain largely unknown. A global analysis reports that
2012), with the total threats being the highest in densely ~97% of reef areas exhibited warming trends, from 1985 to
populated areas (Stammer et al., 2013). For instance, most 2012. Coral bleaching incidents over the last two decades
countries in South, Southeast, and East Asia are highly have been more frequent and more severe (Heron et al.,
vulnerable to SLR because of the widespread occurrence 2016). Summarizing, ocean acidification has been affecting
within those regions of very densely populated deltas, fundamental physiological and ecological processes of
while a number of countries in Africa are highly threatened organisms (Hoegh-Guldberg & Bruno, 2010; Pörtner et
due to low levels of development combined with rapid al., 2014), leading to changes in the structure of marine
population growth rates in coastal areas (Nicholls & ecosystems that underpin risks and vulnerabilities to
Cazenave, 2010). food and income security (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2017).
Thus, the impacts of ocean acidification have a direct
consequence for societies, including changes in national
economies (Busch et al., 2015; Robinson et al., 2010).
127
2.1.18 PAST PATHWAYS: Functioning institutions and governance (e.g., protection of

key biodiversity areas, the absence of conflict) are correlated
INCREASING CONNECTIVITY with some indicators of direct drivers, nature and footprint,
AND FEEDBACKS though the processes involved are complex and cannot
easily be identified from these correlations. Differences across
IPBES regions are suggested for some direct drivers.
Over 50 years, societies and nature have dramatically
changed due to many complex interactions among the Looking at country variations in rates of change (1990–
indirect drivers, among the direct drivers, and between 2010, Figure 2.1.17b), instead of levels variations, again
the indirect and direct drivers. With a variety of impacts the direct drivers were quite correlated with demographic,
on nature, and nature’s contribution to people, these economic and lifestyle drivers, confirming the above
interactions shape well-being for societies, and its evolution, observed patterns, and additional suggestive correlations
including through governance motivations and choices. were also found. Rates of change in urban populations
were correlated with land-use changes, highlighting the
As a result of increasing global connections, local impacts indirect effects of urbanization. Human migration was
on nature and people are influenced by interactions at long correlated with increases in alien species, highlighting the
distances, in some cases with significant time lags and with roles of increased movements of people and goods on
cumulative effects. The social-ecological changes from these these non-native species. In addition, merchandise-export
accumulating interactions, from local to global levels, can values were correlated with amounts of resources extracted,
occur in highly unpredictable ways due to varied conditions confirming paramount roles of trade in extraction of living
characteristic of complex systems, including: nonlinear and nonliving materials from nature. These broad patterns
processes underlying the outcomes; interdependence support more detailed assertions above and pose future
between distant places; changes with cascading effects; research questions.
and both positive and negative feedback loops that can
exacerbate or reduce the impact of changes on nature and Related research is growing. Social–ecological literature
people. All of this greatly affects future trajectories. has seen an exponential development in the last 15 years
(Figure 2.1.18), with a great deal of research on some
Below, we consider a few of the interactions and iterations actions (e.g., agriculture) with direct impacts on nature, plus
that have such influences, starting with an illustration of how they link to climate change, land/sea-use change and
varied correlations among indirect and direct drivers. With economic and governance drivers. While such a map also
variations, by context, each indirect driver that we described cannot communicate causal links, as it does not reflect the
can have both immediate and more distant causal impacts content of the analyzed papers but rather the frequency of
upon any number of actions that directly affect nature and, occurrence of terms linked to any of the indirect and direct
thereby, influences upon direct drivers. drivers, it highlights research gaps. For instance, less was
found on invasive and alien species, values, or trade-offs
and inequalities.
2.1.18.1 Illustrating interconnections
Complex interactions and resulting interconnections between 2.1.18.2 Evolving economic and
indirect and direct drivers may be partially summarized using environmental interactions
statistical tools (Figure 2.1.17). This does not sort out causal
links involved, yet it does raise various questions about 2.1.18.2.1 Growing globalization
exactly how these specific correlations have come about.
The world is ever more global, leading the environmental
The direct drivers − land/seascape change, resource footprints of consuming nations to be spread ever farther from
extraction, pollution, invasive alien species (climate change where the consumption occurs. Networks across continents,
was not included as it operates at very different spatial and including flows of people, information, ideas, capital and
temporal scales) − strongly correlate with multiple indirect goods, have been growing in the last decades at similar rates
drivers, in terms of the current levels for the indicators for all countries, while being clearly higher for the high income
measured for each of the different countries (Figure 2.1.17a). countries (Figure 2.1.4). As a result, the footprint of nations
In particular, direct drivers correlate with total population, is also growing globally, i.e., fractions of the total land use
which also correlates with changes in nature (Biodiversity change, due to consumption, that occurred outside country
Intactness Index) and environmental footprint. Economic and boundaries have increased (Figure 2.1.19). While high income
lifestyle drivers (e.g., gross domestic product per capita, and countries were exporting a large fraction of their footprint even
domestic material consumption per capita) are also correlated before 1990, even the poorest countries now have a large
with most of the direct drivers, nature and footprint indicators. fraction of their footprints beyond their boundaries.
128
A CONDITIONS (2010)
Total Populaon
LANDUSE CHANGE
DEMOGRAPHIC
INDIRECT DRIVERS
Populaon Density % AGRICULTURAL

AND URBAN
Gross Domesc Product Per Capita ***
***
AREAS
ECONOMIC ***
& LIFESTYLE
Domesc Material Consumon Per Capita
% Key Biodiversity Areas Protected

INSTITUTIONS
& GOVERNANCE
Polical Stability EXTRACTION OF
RESOURCE EXTRACTION
*** *** ***
LIVING BIOMASS
***
***
IPBES Region GEOGRAPHIC ***
DIRECT DRIVERS
EXTRACTION
***
OF NONLIVING
*** *** ***
***
MATERIALS
***
BIODIVERSITY
***
BIODIVERSITY
NATURE & FOOTPRINT
*** *** *
INTACNESS INDEX
POLLUTION
***
*
*** * *
TOTAL
*** ***
***
GREEN HOUSE
***
***
*** GAS EMISSIONS
***
TOTAL LAND
***
FOOTPRINT ***
***
FOOTPRINT
***
***
ALIEN SPECIES
*** ***
% ABROAD ALIEN SPECIES
***
LANDUSE ***
***
FOOTPRINT
B TRENDS (1990-2010)
LANDUSE CHANGE
Gross Domesc Product Per Capita
ECONOMIC % AGRICULTURAL
INDIRECT DRIVERS
& LIFESTYLE AND URBAN

Domesc Material Consumon Per Capita
AREAS
Merchandise Export
Total Populaon
Populaon Density
DEMOGRAPHIC
% Urban Populaon
EXTRACTION OF
Internaonal Migran Stock LIVING BIOMASS
RESOURCE EXTRACTION
IPBES Region GEOGRAPHIC
DIRECT DRIVER ALIEN SPECIES
EXTRACTION DIRECT DRIVERS

OF NONLIVING
MATERIALS
BIODIVERSITY
BIODIVERSITY
NATURE & FOOTPRINT
INTACNESS INDEX
POLLUTION
TOTAL
GREEN HOUSE
GAS EMISSIONS
TOTAL LAND
FOOTPRINT
FOOTPRINT
ALIEN SPECIES
% ABROAD ALIEN SPECIES

LANDUSE
FOOTPRINT
CONDITIONS (2010): TRENDS (1990-2010):
Effect Size: Significance Level: Inial Condions (1990) Effect Size of Regression Rank:
**
Inial Condions
>0.05: - 0.001 - 0.01:
+ effect size 0.3-0.3 0-0.3
***
Rates of Change
*
0.6 - 1: 0.3 - 0.6: 0 - 0.3: N/A: <0.001:
0.1-0.05: None
Figure 2 1 17 Correlations between indirect drivers and direct drivers, as well as indicators of
nature and footprint.
A Correlations between current conditions of countries, (2010 ). B Correlations between trends of change in country values for
1990-2010. Multiple regression analysis was used as a way of summarizing correlations for current conditions, while regression
trees were used for the correlations of the trends. Data used for correlations are by country. Corresponding average trends for
development level categories are shown in Figures 2.1.4 and 2.1.12.
129
Figure 2 1 18 Current state of knowledge on interactions among drivers from a systematic

literature review.
The number of papers that address each of the topics (circles) and that address two of them of (lines) are depicted. The literature
surveyed was identified using keywords extracted from the Second Order Draft of this chapter, and using the bibliometrix R
package, following Mazor et al. (2018) Sources: www.webofknowledge.com; www.bibliometrix.org.
2.1.18.2.2 Spreading spillovers from these efforts, nearby or distant, are far from being
understood and seldom taken into account (Meyfroidt et
Spillovers from responses to environmental policies − al., 2018).
even across borders − can undermine net impacts of
governance efforts (see, for example, the case of palm Responses to governance efforts across space and over
oil, within Box 2.1.4 below). Understanding and taking time can hurt or help policies’ objectives − environmental
into account spillovers is important for evaluations, and and economic. PAs, for instance, might not change land-
for planning. Conservation efforts have expanded: legal use but just displace it (Hansen & DeFries, 2007), raising
limits, including protected areas and other restrictions; deforestation elsewhere (Robalino et al., 2017 for local
as well as positive incentives intended to discourage context and heterogeneous impact) while potentially also
the degradation of nature (Chape et al., 2005; Jenkins & lowering local wages (Robalino, 2007). Yet context matters:
Joppa, 2009), such as many programs using payments with tourism, wages may rise (Robalino & Villalobos, 2015);
as compensation for protecting and restoring ecosystems and in cases, PAs lower deforestation nearby (Herrera
(Albers & Grinspoon, 1997; Chen et al., 2009; Daily & Garcia, 2015) − including by dissuading local investments
Matson, 2008; Uphoff & Langholz, 1998). Yet spillovers in economic development (Herrera Garcia, 2015). That
130
GDP vs Footprint 1990 GDP vs Footprint 2013 Change in total vs change

in abroad footprint
1.5 1.5
Change in abroad footprint (2009-2013)

0.50
1.0 1.0
Footprint
0.25
0.5 0.5
0.0
0.0 0.0
0 5000 100000 150000 0 5000 100000 150000 -0.4 0.0 0.4

Gross domestic product (per capita) Gross domestic product (per capita) Change in total footprint (2009-2013)
INCOME REGIONS High income Upper-middle income Lower-middle income Low income
FOOTPRINT PER CAPITA Abroad Total
Figure 2 1 19 Increasing total footprint of nations and exports of footprint: 1990-2013.

Data shown is the footprint of individual countries, which is the sum of all land uses that occurs around the world to ultimately
serve that specific nation’s consumption. This land use footprint usually has a portion that occurs within the nation’s own
border (domestic), and a portion that occurs in within the borders of other countries (triangles), and the sum of these two
components form the total footprint (circles). Countries are colored using World Bank’s income categories. (Source: own
calculations using Eora database, https://worldmrio.com/). The population and GDP data that were used for normalising the
results were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO, 2016a; Wiedmann et al., 2015).
may involve deforestation in other regions, if there exist conservation of nature yields neighboring conservation via
broader spatial spillovers (DeFries et al., 2010; Lambin & local incentives to keep forest (Robalino et al., 2017).
Meyfroidt, 2011; Rudel et al., 2009b; Viña et al., 2016; Zhu
& Feng, 2003). Moving to natural resources, many middle income countries
possess stocks of oil and for some non-OECD high income
Understanding spillovers is essential to formulate policies. countries, fossil fuels constitute a large share of their wealth.
While there are studies of displacing land use (Lambin In such settings, discoveries can have spillovers through
& Meyfroidt, 2011; Meyfroidt & Lambin, 2009; Pfaff & local incomes (Lange et al., 2018b, p. 98) and prices. They
Walker, 2010) and deforestation (DeFries et al., 2010; Liu can also bring ‘the resource curse’ (Barma et al., 2012; van
et al., 2012; Meyfroidt & Lambin, 2009; Verburg et al., der Ploeg, 2011): although some resource-rich countries
2002; Wassenaar et al., 2007), in policy formulation the benefit from their natural wealth, in other countries it has
consideration of human-nature interactions across spaces been associated with bad macroeconomic performance and
often is lacking. That could involve global scales, if prices growing inequality among its citizens, with negative effects
rise in distant markets when one country lowers logging on other sectors of the economy due to concentrated
effort (Sedjo & Sohngen, 2000). Alternatively, it could be growth. Further, as fossil fuels are nonrenewable, their
local, e.g., reduced motivations to conserve, for those who extraction has effects upon the future.
conserved voluntarily, if external interventions are perceived
as a public overreach (Cardenas et al., 2000). Spillovers also imply gains from integration in the planning
of development and conservation, for instance as related
Different spillover mechanisms yield different outcomes (Pfaff to transport investments. Consider a leading development
& Robalino, 2017). If PES for afforestation leads neighbors policy, roads, and a leading conservation policy, protected
to learn that afforestation raises private profits, then others areas. Roads increase profits in agriculture and, thereby,
might start such practices in other locations − while those pressures for deforestation. That raises the impacts from
now receiving PES may continue practices after PES well-implemented PAs (Pfaff et al., 2016, 2009). Successful
(Pagiola et al., 2016 for Latin America). Such spatial and protection, in which PAs block the pressures, can in turn
temporal spillovers benefit nature. Another potential spillover have positive spillovers through both agencies’ interactions
mechanism is that private or public conservation actions and private responses, as strong PA signals may lower
change the relative net benefits of conservation nearby. While expectations about economic prospects within any region.
Robalino & Pfaff (2012) find deforestation yields more private That has yielded reduced roads investments and in-
deforestation by neighbors, with tourism this can imply that migration (Herrera Garcia, 2015). Optimal policies could
131
Box 2 1 4 Palm oil illustrates multiple forms of interaction across national borders.
Palm oil production doubled in 2006-2016 to a global In response to this, the EU voted to ban palm oil-based biofuels
economic value of USD 65.7 billion in 2015. Demands in food by 2021, while the Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO)
(frying and cooking oils, baking fats, margarines, animal feed, platform of principles, criteria, indicators and certification is
confectionery filling, coffee whiteners, ice creams), oleo- followed voluntarily in Indonesia and Malaysia. RSPO has
chemicals (soaps, detergents, greases, lubricants and candle), certified ~12 million metric tons (19% of output) with members
fatty acids (to produce pharmaceuticals, water-treatment in 91 countries and Indonesia proposed a Peatland Restoration
products and bactericides), and energy (biodiesel) fueled this Agency for 2 million ha, froze concessions, and started to work
increase, all encouraged by international capital (Borras Jr et closely with large consumers.
al., 2016) as well as the World Bank (Deininger et al., 2011)
and UNEP (Segura-Moran, 2011). States involved envision jobs Yet major plantation companies are shifting investments to
and revenues to help mitigate high unemployment and to help Africa, where local values, nutrition, culture and markets
supplement declining revenues, given falling commodity prices. in Congo Basin countries are disrupted as doubled prices
fuel investment in medium-sized (5-50 ha) plantations in
About 80% of production is in Indonesia and Malaysia − with forested areas (Yemefack et al., 2005). This growth has been
the rest across Latin America and West Africa, e.g., growing linked to ‘land grabbing’ − both there and in the Guinea
in Cameroon (Hoyle & Levang, 2012) and Gabon (FAO, forest ecosystem, where several land acquisition deals by
2016a) − and consumption is highest in India, Indonesia, EU, multinationals are reported (see www.landmatrix.org).
China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Thailand, Bangladesh and USA. This
generates tropical deforestation (Borras Jr et al., 2011; Gibbs Consciously managing for multiple objectives, is important.
et al., 2010), reduces soil fertility, raises water and air pollution One option is further agroecology. Agroforestry has potential
(through fires) and biodiversity loss, pollutes with pesticides, for increasing productivity (and profit) and maintaining or
and blocks communities from soil and water for livelihoods enhancing ecosystem services. This requires multiple forms
(Edwards et al., 2010; Koh et al., 2011; Temper et al., 2015), of support, including monetary incentives, technical training
while increasing human infections and premature deaths and other investment (Minang, 2018) to enhance the ability to
(Burrows, 2016; Fornace et al., 2016). manage land.
build from such non-cooperative interactions to pursue the While violent conflict may be decreasing (Lacina &
coordination of roads and protection. Gleditsch, 2005), conflicts that destabilize social systems
can have adverse environmental impacts, which in turn
Similarly, concessions are a leading development policy in may cause or affect conflicts. Resource scarcities and/or
forests, awarding extraction rights. That alone can create unequal appropriations have triggered conflicts over fossil
incentives for private firms to defend forest assets from fuels, water, food, and land. Those conflicts undermine
illegal invasions. Further, such a strong defense of rights governance, in turn generating further shifts in threats to
may be a necessary condition for adding conservation ecosystems in a harmful social-ecosystem feedback loop.
influences of global consumer preferences as expressed
through certifications (Rico et al., 2017). Thus, further Links between resource scarcity and conflicts are not clearly
coordination across agencies could optimally locate established (Bernauer et al., 2012; Koubi et al., 2013), but
concessions and protections. Protection also interacts with clear examples, such as the role played by water scarcity
investment in hydropower, which has led to eliminations of in triggering violence in Syria, are available today. Water
PAs (‘PADDD’) but could be better coordinated to achieve scarcity is exacerbated by contamination of local sources,
multiple objectives (Tesfaw et al., 2018). the appropriation of water by agriculture, changes within land
rights, food insecurity, unemployment, and political instability
2.1.18.2.3 Causing conflicts (Gleick, 2014). Civil conflicts in areas where valuable natural
resources are found have tended to last longer, as the
Social instability is at the heart of environmental, social, access to natural resources creates an economic incentive
economic or geopolitical threats (World Economic Forum, for armed groups (Lujala, 2010). The control of natural
2017, 2018) (see Figures S31–33). More than 2,500 resources (timber, gems or oil) and the revenues from
conflicts over fossil fuels, water, food and land are currently resources finance and motivate conflicts (Le Billon, 2001).
occurring across the planet (including at least 1,000
environmental activists and journalists killed between 2002 Disputes over use rights relevant for nature can trigger
and 2013. A report by the NGO Global Witness argues violence and destruction, particularly with weak governance
that 913 citizens were killed in their attempt to protect the (Brown & Keating, 2015). Violent conflict further disrupts
environment between 2002 and 2013; and that the rate of institutions, causing insecurities and distrust (Miteva et al.,
such killing has been increasing (Global Witness, 2014). 2017). For centuries, resources have been linked to warfare
132
(Feldt, 2007). Matthew et al. (2009) suggest that 40–60% off their lands or threatened by the degradation of their
of civil wars in the past 60 years were triggered, funded or natural resources (Schoenberger & Beban, 2018). Violence
sustained by natural resources. Renner (2002) highlights that might also be used to discourage resistance to large-scale
legal or illegal resource exploitation helped trigger, exacerbate degradation (Blake & Barney, 2018). More generally, conflict
or finance ongoing violent conflicts about the control of sites can be one symptom of an unequal distribution (Downey et
rich in valuable commodities or the points they pass through al., 2010) and can affect conservation as more untouched
going to markets. Schaffartzik et al. (2016)) document ecosystems harbor groups targeted by military operations
that growing metals demand has generated incentives (DeWeerdt, 2008). Looking out over time, armed conflict
for countries to seek revenue through exploiting natural can lead to the withdrawal of financial aid, which is rarely
resources and exporting primary commodities, with the reinstated after a conflict (Glew & Hudson, 2007).
expansion of extraction frontiers generating conflicts. Billions
of dollars can then go to unscrupulous actors. In Indonesia ~20 million people have been affected
by forest conflicts (Dhiaulhaq et al., 2015) and the
Controlling natural resources is part of state-based and civil Environmental Justice Organizations, Liabilities and Trade
conflicts and an element within the repression of riots and (or EJOLT, www.ejolt.org) documents almost 2000 active
even assassination of activists (Global Witness, 2014). Food environmental conflicts (see Figure 2.1.20) − most related
riots also rise if food prices rise from physical or constructed to land, minerals, water access and dams (Giordano et
scarcities (Lagi et al., 2011). Such violence − including al., 2005; Martinez-Alier et al., 2016; Seter et al., 2016) –
assassinations − can occur if communities are pushed while the Latin American Observatory of Mining Conflicts
Figure 2 1 20 Global map of environmental conflicts.

The environmental justice atlas documents and catalogues social conflict around environmental issues, collecting the struggles
of world communities to defend their land, air, water, forests and their livelihoods from damaging projects and extractive
activities with heavy environmental and social impacts from around the world. Source: https://ejatlas.org/.
133
(www.conflictosmineros.net) notes over 150 active mining disproportionate pollution and other environmental stressors
conflicts, most started in the 2000s after investments (Demaria, 2010; Parajuli, 1996). Tribal affiliation often counts
in mining in the 1990s (Urkidi & Walter, 2011; Walter, in struggles against resource extraction processes, as in
2017). Butterman & Amey III (2005) suggest underlying the case of Nigeria and other countries in which companies
international policy spillovers, i.e., that investment shifted have shifted social and environmental costs of oil extraction
due to environmental and labor regulations in Canada, onto Indigenous and poor local communities (Martinez-Alier
and in the US, as well as due to political instabilities within et al., 2014).
the former Soviet Union, Asia and Africa. Some of the
complex interactions involved in many such conflicts can be These inequalities have serious health consequences. A
illustrated using the Nile Basin’s example (Box 2.1.5). quarter of deaths and years of life lost are attributed to
environmental degradation (Figure S31), with the highest
fraction in low and middle income countries (WHO, 2016)
2.1.18.3 Evolving economic and given chemical or biological pollution of air, water and soil via
environmental trade-offs agriculture, irrigation, and sanitation. Poor, rural communities
are disproportionately affected (WRI, 2017). Negative
Across the globe, gains and burdens from nature are effects of extreme events affect vulnerable communities
unequal for different sectors of society − and the trade-offs in developing countries, who are least able to cope with
have evolved for all parties. For example, while a few firms the risks (Smit & Wandel, 2006), including of climate
are responsible for much of the fish harvesting around the change (Mirza, 2003) and a likely multitude of primary and
globe (Österblom et al., 2015), and a few countries are secondary effects (Adger, 2003).
responsible for most of the carbon emissions (IPCC, 2013;
Peters et al., 2015), those who are most impacted by the Climate change, e.g., a 3°C warming with a 3% loss of
consequences often are other groups that can include GDP, will likely exacerbate inequalities (Mendelsohn et al.,
orders of magnitude more people with considerably less 2000; Nordhaus & Boyer, 2000; Tol, 2002). Countries with
influence. In fisheries, FAO reports that 34 million people higher initial temperatures, greater climate change levels,
derive their livelihoods through fishing, while over 3 billion and lower levels of development, which often implies greater
people get at least 15% of their protein intake from fish, dependence on climate-sensitive sectors and in particular
especially in poor nations (FAO, 2014). Major ecological agriculture, are expected to bear the highest levels of
collapses have impacts upon international seafood market impacts (Golden et al., 2016, 2017; Marlier et al., 2015;
prices in markets (Smith et al., 2017), but also upon the Myers et al., 2014; Vittor et al., 2006; Whitmee et al., 2015).
many small fish farmers and many consumers.
More generally, losses of natural capital are unequally
Environmental quality studies (Bowen et al., 1995; Morello- distributed across countries and regions (Figure 2.1.21,
Frosch et al., 2001; Pastor et al., 2002) find inequities can Lange et al., 2018a). Further, these inequalities arise
result from race and class barriers (e.g., Box 2.1.3 above within countries as well, including along gender-based
as well as Box 2.1.6 above for including gender). In India, and race-based and income-based dimensions within
for instance, castes generate an important element of developed countries.
Box 2 1 5 Nile basin’s water allocation conflicts, with equity and efficiency considerations.
The Nile basin provides examples of conflicts concerning water has created conflict with Egypt. Egypt says that the dam will
allocation at the national scale, i.e., between nations, within reduce the flows to the lower Nile and that it will lose almost
an enormous region. This basin covers over 3 million km2 3 billion m3 to evaporation. Ethiopia responds that Egypt is
with an annual discharge of 84 billion m3 which supports over losing 12 billion m3 via the Aswan Dam, which is in Egypt (Di
200 million people within 10 countries: Burundi, Democratic Nunzio, 2013).
Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania,
South Sudan, The Sudan and Uganda. About 86% of the water The region is rising in population and is modifying agroecosystems
from the Blue Nile originates from Lake Tana, which is within to meet needs for food, fuel and fiber. Given rising demand and
Ethiopia. Yet downstream 97% of the water needs in Egypt are its impacts on biodiversity, water resources and ecosystems,
fulfilled by the Nile, setting up potential tensions concerning the in order to work out rights structures for both sustainable
management of agroecosystems upstream. management and fair utilization the Nile Basin Initiative was
established in 1999 with support from each of the ten related
Thus, not surprisingly, the decision by Ethiopia to build the countries. Only coordination can ensure sustainability for so
Grand Renaissance Dam, which is now under construction, many people and ecosystems (Swain, 2002).
134
Box 2 1 6 Scale, gender, and ecosystem-based differences for trade-offs within fisheries.
At the turn of the century, industrial fisheries and small-scale comprehensive ecosystem management – including of zones
fisheries (SSFs) (Vásquez-León & McGuire, 1993) disagreed important for juvenile fish (e.g., seagrass beds, mangroves) –
about inequitable relations including competition (Lawson, 1977; requires understanding all SSF practices (Kleiber et al., 2015).
Vásquez-León & McGuire, 1993), preferential treatment by the Further, as women are often excluded from representing their
state of the industrial fisheries (Panayotou, 1980; Pauly, 1997), concerns in the dominant fisheries governance processes
access to specific fishing grounds (Begossi, 1995) and gear (FAO, 2006; Okali & Holvoet, 2007; Porter, 2006), they are more
(Sunderlin & Gorospe, 1997). Conflict arose between fisheries, vulnerable to tenure insecurity, marginalization and poverty
conservation and tourism (White & Palaganas, 1991) as well. (Harper et al., 2013). Alternative SSF definitions are emerging.
SSFs were seen at odds with nonconsumptive uses of marine FAO’s Voluntary Guidelines for Securing Sustainable Small-Scale
resources (Basurto et al., 2017; Newman et al., 2018). Agencies Fisheries in the Context of Food Security and Poverty Eradication
adopting mandates of conservation and protection were seen as (SSF-Guidelines) defines SSFs with all activities along the relevant
against SSFs (Breton et al., 1996). The conflicts were especially value chains – e.g., “pre-harvest, harvest and post-harvest” by
salient around endangered species and charismatic megafauna men or by women (FAO, 2015a). Its implementation will shift
(Kalland, 1993). Jobs were said to be replaced in tourism and SSF futures.
‘green’ services yet fishers were skeptical (Young, 1999).
Challenges differ for inland fisheries facing agricultural runoff,
The literature has relied on technology to differentiate SSFs, often introduced exotic species, and human uses (Youn et al., 2014)
with unintended consequences (Basurto et al., 2017). Definitions such as hydropower, flood control, and irrigation (Baran et al.,
stress technical capacities, e.g., boat lengths, horsepower, 2007). In many developed countries, commercial fisheries have
and gear (Chuenpagdee et al., 2006; FAO, 2009c; Smith et al., diminished in favor of alternative uses of freshwater, including
2017), excluding some SSF activities. To start, catching fish at recreational fishing, and scale again matters. Inland fisheries
sea is a predominately male activity (FAO, 2016b), while women often feature small-scale harvesting (Bartley et al., 2015) but
play large roles in shore-side SSF efforts such as procuring large-scale, commercialized fisheries have large vessels and
ice, bait, food and fuel, accounting, managing, financing, fish highly mechanized gear − e.g., the kilka fishery in the Caspian
processing, trading and marketing (Harper et al., 2013; Thorpe Sea (FAO, 1999), mechanized operations on lakes in Finland
et al., 2014). These are labeled as supporting activities (Gereva & and the United States or estuaries in the Brazilian Amazon
Vuki, 2010; Kleiber et al., 2015; Tindall & Holvoet, 2008) or, when (Carolsfield, 2003; GLMRIS, 2012; Salmi & Sipponen, 2017)
women are fishers (Béné et al., 2009) in intertidal and shallow and long bag nets in the Tonle Sap Great Lake in Cambodia
zones it is labeled as collection and gleaning and gathering (Lamberts, 2001). Such operations may be more easily
(FAO, 2015a; Pálsson, 1989; Worldfish Center, 2010). Gender monitored and governed than dispersed fishers. Trade-offs
bias has implications for science, management, and the access between revenues and food security (Abila, 2003) arise for high-
to key resources. Most data measure only men’s effort at sea value exports (Lake Victoria Nile perch generated 250 million
from interviewing men (Kleiber et al., 2015; Smith et al., 2017), USD in 2012 (IOC, 2015)), given vulnerable stocks (Ermolin &
underestimating aggregate SSF economic contributions. Also, Svolkinas, 2016).
A
450
400
ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS (BN 2011 USD)
350
NET GHS EMISSIONS/

300 REMOVALS FROM LAND USE
GLOBAL
250 DAMAGES
GHS EMISSIONS FROM
200 FOSSIL FUELS
150
FOREST TIMBER DEPLETION
100
LOCAL
DAMAGES
50
ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH
COSTS
0
1995 2013
B AVERAGE ANNUAL CHANGE IN C 40%
NATURAL CAPITAL PER CAPITA,

20%
135 1995-2014
0%
ATH
)
ENVIRONMENT
150
FOREST TIMBER DEPLETION
100
LOCAL
CHAPTER 2.1 STATUS AND TRENDS – DAMAGES
DRIVERS OF CHANGE
50
ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH
COSTS
0
1995 2013
B AVERAGE ANNUAL CHANGE IN C 40%
NATURAL CAPITAL PER CAPITA,

20%
1995-2014
0%
CHANGE IN TOTAL WEATH

5%
AVERAGE ANNUAL CHANGE (%)
-20%
4% -40%
3% -60%
2% -80%
1% -100%
0% -120%
-1% -140%
Low income Lower-middle Upper-middle
income income INCOME
Low income Lower-middle income Upper-middle income High income
Figure 2 1 21 Unequal gains and losses from changes in nature 1995-2014.

A Increase in local and global environmental and societal costs, both global and local in billions of 2011 USD. B Average
annual change in natural capital per capita for countries with contrasting levels of income, in average annual change in per
cent. C Average annual changes in total wealth relative to changes in income per country; colors are used to distinguish
countries of different income levels, using World Bank categories. Source: Lange et al. (2018a), see The Hidden Dimensions of
Poverty (https://slideplayer.com/slide/11877123/).
2.1.18.4 Feedback loops and loops relevant for nature. First, we consider changes in
natural-social trajectories trajectories, including abrupt changes, with feedback
towards environmental degradation. Second, as part of
Growing literature on social-ecological dynamics has largely responses to such trends, we consider individuals’ and
explored actions (e.g. agriculture, fisheries, forestry, mining groups’ feedback to governance responses. Finally, we
sectors) and the economic (e.g. trade, income, economic scale upwards for possible feedback loops that lead in more
composition), and governance indirect drivers − alongside desirable directions for nature.
some work on positive and negative feedback loops, in a
complex-systems sense of exacerbating or diminishing the 2.1.18.4.1 Interactions, abrupt changes,
forces going in a given direction.
and linked negative trends
Here we consider interactions and feedbacks that lead Dramatic changes in nature can result from feedback
toward more or less desirable natural and social outcomes. that emerges from complex interactions between indirect
This brings us full circle back to the trajectories highlighted in and direct drivers − which can exacerbate the rates of
the Introduction. degradation of nature. Regime shifts, for instance, are large,
abrupt and persistent changes in the function and structure
The dynamics underlying development pathways described of systems (Scheffer & Carpenter, 2003). They occur at
in the Introduction include feedback. Thus, as noted, initial different spatial and temporal scales in marine and terrestrial
conditions for the many consequential indirect drivers can systems (Rocha et al., 2015). A ‘regime shifts data base’
lead to actions, aggregated impacts, changes in nature, documents over 30 different types of these abrupt changes
shifts in NCP abundance or scarcity and, thus, changes (Figure S34) with >300 case studies based on a literature
in indirect drivers including values, prices, governance review of over 1000 scientific papers (Biggs et al., 2015).
institutions, and more. Such feedback loops can push
towards balancing or, instead, towards more extreme Regime shifts are increasingly observed. While they can
outcomes, both natural and social. occur naturally, under current trends of environmental
forcing they might be more frequent and severe than
Below, we consider some relevant pieces of such feedback observed. Climate change and food production have large
loops, although much remains to be studied concerning forcing impacts (DeClerck et al., 2016; Foley et al., 2005;
136
Gordon et al., 2008; Rocha et al., 2015) and such shifts 2006; Sunstein & Reisch, 2014), including ‘learning’ via
are expected to occur widely, but particularly in the Arctic comparisons to neighbors (Allcott, 2011; Ayres et al., 2013).
(AMAP, 2012; Ford et al., 2015; IPCC, 2013; Peterson & In Ireland, real-time information affected behaviour (Gans
Rocha, 2016) where climate impact is felt relatively quickly. et al., 2013), although effects may decay without sustained
Another example of a regime shift is hypoxia in coastal information (Allcott & Rogers, 2014). ‘Moral persuasion’
systems, where oxygen levels fall low enough to produce (Ito et al., 2018; Reiss & White, 2008) had effects only in
‘dead zones’ whose frequency and extent has risen across the short-run, rising with income but lower for political
recent decades (Diaz & Rosenberg, 2008) and are more conservatives (Costa & Kahn, 2013). Social identities
pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere, given common matter (Bartels, 2002; Cassino & Lodge, 2007; Greene,
use of fertilizers. In the US only, more than 500 such ‘lifeless’ 1999; Hillygus & Shields, 2014; Huddy, 2001; Kahneman &
zones have been reported (Figure S35). Tversky, 1979; Krosnick, 1991; Quattrone & Tversky, 1988).
While values and identities may override (Kahan et al., 2011;
Shifts within the Arctic region have led communities to self- Layzer, 2006), so too do prior exposures and interactions
organize and to promote adaptive capacity (Huitric et al., (Brody et al., 2008; Egan & Mullin, 2012). Framing around
2016), yet Arctic communities are, on their own, of course health (Myers et al., 2012) and victims (Hart & Nisbet, 2012)
often limited in influencing the drivers of the regime shifts can activate concerns and voting. Uncertain perceptions
(Peterson & Rocha, 2016). Policies to manage many of the and a growing polarization and segmentation of media limits
shifts that affect those communities require coordinated information (Hollander et al., 2008).
actions over scales which address the diversity of drivers
(Rocha et al., 2014). Activists, firms, scientists and experts all inform both citizens
and states (Keck & Sikkink, 1998), with influence via ideas
Feedbacks between health and nature can arise when health and information, including from monitoring and connecting
and nature’s status affect each other. The uses of antibiotics actors and setting agendas (Betsill & Corell, 2001; Wapner,
by humans (including over-use or mis-uses), for example, 1995). Over time some NGOs have acquired roles in
build resistance in nature (Laxminarayan et al., 2013), environmental regimes − nationally and internationally
thus contributing to negative impacts of nature on people. (Wapner, 1995). Some focus on facts: ‘epistemic
Chronic and infectious diseases and epidemic outbreaks communities’ (Sebenius, 1992) influence choice given
shape household uses of nature, driving land management uncertainties about social and physical processes (Adler &
and dictating investments and policy. An E. coli outbreak Haas, 1992) by developing knowledge or solutions, plus
changed landscape management in the US, for instance, lobbying (Gough & Shackley, 2002). International learning
as farmers eliminated hedgerows to avoid contamination can facilitate improved policies (Adler & Haas, 1992).
by small mammal feces (Martin, 2006). In East Africa, poor
health contributes to destructive and illegal fishing practices Free flow of information, civil liberties and regime
(Fiorella et al., 2017), while sustainable agricultural practice receptiveness to citizen demands all suggest better
is more common with improved access to anti-retroviral environmental quality for democracies (Payne, 1995). Yet
therapy (Damon et al., 2015). Illnesses shift management India – the largest democracy − faces severe environmental
of landscapes, e.g., malaria risk shapes tropical wetlands quality issues while Singapore ranks high alongside Norway
management (Malan et al., 2009) while Zika control efforts and Sweden (EPI, 2018). Citizens can be aware of issues
include widespread insecticide use in the Americas and regardless of state-provided information, as they live
Pacific region (Blinder, 2016; Petersen et al., 2016). Illness with the problems (Arvin & Lew, 2011; O’Rourke, 2004;
burdens – staggering globally and in sub-Saharan Africa and Winslow, 2005). Further, less democratic regimes do not
South Asia in particular – have implications for allocating restrict all information (King et al., 2013 on censorship
budgets toward concerns deemed more immediate than within China), even if any information that could galvanize
nature. These kinds of interactions allow for unfortunate and collective action might be restricted. Participation
linked trends in nature and human health. modes for environmental actors have included protests
in Vietnam and Myanmar to demand less degradation
2.1.18.4.2 Citizen feedback to (Doyle & Simpson, 2006; O’Rourke, 2004). While that is
not always effective, not all environmental participation is
governance
effective in democracies. Pavlinek & Pickles (2004) note
Well-informed citizens vote for representatives who share the prioritization of the economy instead of environment
their views on the use of nature, in a democratic ideal. Yet, in post-Soviet Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), yet
the fraction who vote has been well below 100%, globally. Midlarsky (1998) sees “no uniform relationship between
Voting may be irrational (Downs, 1957) and uninformed democracy and the environment” while Pellegrini and
(Campbell et al., 1960; Converse, 1964; Fiorina, 1981; Gerlagh (2006) and Pellegrini (2011) suggest effects of
Zaller, 1992), Studies find biases(Shogren & Taylor, 2008) democracy in decreasing degradation are overstated and
and assess “nudges” around energy (Gillingham et al., that corruption could undermine all.
137
Leaders’ incentives have mattered (Congleton, 1992; Ward with diverse stakeholder groups given two key objectives:
et al., 2014), e.g., private income gains from polluting improve the quality of the water resource; and advocate
and extracting (Deacon, 1999; McGuire & Olson, 1996; freshwater use in an efficient and equitable way, coherent
Olson, 1993). If the elites lose rents in stringent regulatory with the social, economic and environmental needs of
regimes, while the benefits of conservation are diffuse, present and future generations.
leaders may not strengthen nature (Bernauer & Koubi,
2009; Cao & Ward, 2015). The time horizons matter 2.1.18.4.3 Scaling up and extending
too. Lasting institutions include legislatures (Gandhi,
positive responses
2008; Gandhi & Przeworski, 2007; Svolik, 2012) and
political parties (Brownlee, 2007), which can extend the Multiple existing initiatives have both a positive potential
temporal perspective. and some potential to be scaled up for moderating
negative impacts on nature and good quality of life, toward
In the 1970s, state policies were often varied command more sustainable futures. One compilation is the “Seeds
and control limits on pollution through output or technology of Good Anthropocenes” initiative3 that aims to explore
requirements (Coglianese & Lazer, 2003). While relatively and articulate positive futures (Bennett et al., 2016). Up
easy to implement, these have inefficiencies due to to 500 initiatives which demonstrate elements of positive
inflexibility (Jaffe et al., 1995) and the distrust and adversarial futures have been identified (Figure 2.1.22), towards testing
legalism that often results. As Kagan (1991) describes, legal theories about how desirable transformative pathways
rules and adversarial procedures for resolving disputes often can supported (Pereira et al., 2018). They include social
lead to costly winner-takes-all judicial battles with both cost movements, ways of living or doing things, technologies
and delays. This can result from a closed-door approach in and designs, and governance. For example, Yachay City
which agencies ignore firm and local knowledge, lowering of Knowledge is a “New City” under development in rural
‘buy-in’ (Beierle & Konisky, 2001; Coglianese & Lazer, Ecuador, conceptualized to be a technological research
2003). This can create opportunities for ‘capture’ by interest and innovation hub containing research facilities, a working
groups (Oates & Portney, 2003) that have influence in university, and bio-tech companies. “Tribal parks” are an
traditional regulatory processes – often reflecting the power example of Aboriginal people being recognized as co-
of concentrated production and finance. Recently, greater managers of national parks in Canada4. The Foundation for
attention has been given to collaborative governance by Ecological Security is an Indian NGO which is working to
public and private actors (Fiorino, 2006): “agencies directly reduce poverty by helping communities organize to restore
engage non-state stakeholders in a collective decision- their ecosystems while also enhancing their livelihoods in
making process that is formal, consensus-oriented, and over 8,000 village institutions in 31 districts across 8 states,
deliberative” (Ansell & Gash, 2008). Walker et al (2015) having already supported some form of restoration of over
describe such approaches: first, the state informs and 1 million ha while training 350,000 people in both ecological
educates citizens via public meetings and notifications; restoration and management of village institutions5.
second, regulating entities request public input on policies,
as through comments, though technical complexity requires Quite broadly, many voices have called for alternatives to
the agency to do more policy formulation; and third, current global development pathways (see also chapters 5
more complete collaboration where agencies and private and 6). There are calls for ‘degrowth’, with changes in social
stakeholders equally construct new policies. and political priorities (Odum & Odum, 2006). Ecological
sustainability and social justice are called out, e.g., “an
Water management provides some examples, from across equitable downscaling of production and consumption
the globe, of significant variation in such processes. that increases human well-being and enhances ecological
In Singapore, a Public Utilities Board (PUB) manages conditions at the local and global level” (Schneider et al.,
electricity, gas and water supply plus legislation to address 2010). Whether this will be widely embraced or scaled up as
sewerage, effluents, drinking water quality and more (Luan, a goal remains to be seen.
2010). After focusing on construction and maintenance,
it now also does ‘demand management’ to encourage Consumer-driven initiatives to demand sustainable land-use
citizens to conserve. India’s National Water Policy is management and the restoration of degraded lands have
coordinated by the Ministry of Water Resources as a arisen in recent decades (IPBES, 2018a). Companies have
tool for planning and development of water resources. responded by committing to reduce impacts upon nature
Adopted in 1987, this legislative pact was relaunched in and the rights of local communities, including taking steps
2012 to emphasize water as an ‘economic good’ and, to, e.g., eliminate deforestation due to supply chains by
thus, promotes efficient use and conservation. Beyond
potable water access, a recent addition is flow in water 3. https://goodanthropocenes.net/
channels to meet ecological needs. Canada also adopted a 4. http://www.tribalparks.ca
Federal Water Policy in 1987, noting intensive consultation 5. http://fes.org.in
138
Implemented
Long-lasting or thriving
Prototype or start-up
Figure 2 1 22 Seeds of Good Anthropocenes.

The Bright Spots team used an international participatory process to identify over 500 initiative globally, and gathered data on
how they are established, grow, spread, or inspire positive change elsewhere.
Sources: Future Earth (2017), Pereira et al. (2018).
2020. State and civil-society groups have committed to payoffs from resource use and environmental degradation
restore hundreds of millions of hectares of degraded lands. drive private choices, in many settings even commendable
Following all this, the finance sector is starting to make private responses have come up far short of social
explicit commitments to reduce its environmental impacts. sensibility. The simple, obvious and pervasive reason for
this is that private actors often have not taken into account
Other alternatives to global development pathways have how other people would lose (or gain) from those actors’
emphasized how nature’s contributions are valued and choices concerning degradation. Sometimes actors did
currently marketed − versus how they could or should not know about effects on others, which suggests potential
be. These have highlighted incentives and the potential from initiatives such as efforts to communicate with relevant
from clear ownership and use rights, with private-market actors, e.g., via certifications of production processes. Yet
interactions that facilitate price feedbacks to address often people simply have not in their daily decisions given
scarcities. For example, when an earthquake shuts equal attention to effects on others − even though, clearly,
down copper mines, the futures market quickly lowers there exists both altruism and various private provisions
expectations of supply, through higher prices, that in turn of public goods. Thus, even if fully informed about effects
shifted any number of private plans, from computer wiring on others, private actors were not bound to incur costs to
through kitchen redesign. Most generally, following signals benefit others, and often did not, raising questions about
of natural scarcities, relevant decisions have adjusted public roles concerning those affected.
to help.
When people affected by others’ behaviours had the
Industrial ecologists note that responses to environmental publicly defended right to clean air, or water, producers
quality and natural resource scarcities have been degrading others’ environment and resources were forced
considerably more complex, even if guided by a simple to get consent and, at times, compensate the affected. That
pursuit of profits. Paraphrasing Frosch & Gallopoulos shifts private costs and benefits and, thus, plans. Given
(1989), the wastes from one industry can be the inputs for appropriate public frameworks, those signals of the need
others, reducing the total usage of all raw materials as well to adjust were stronger as scarcities in nature rose, shifting
as the generation of pollution into the environment. This further the trade-offs for degrading production. Yet such
has occurred in residences, too, with ‘gray water’ from frameworks often were lacking.
apartments feeding urban roof gardens. While all of that
requires coordination, in principle it is motivated by private When rights were clear, and incentives aligned, actors
costs or profits alone. gained in their own management decisions from information
due to assessments − even by others. It appears as though
Limits on such useful feedback processes have included: larger fisheries, which tend to be more systematically
information; rights; and transaction costs. Since the private assessed, are doing better in maintaining fish stocks,
139
on average, than small, formally unassessed fisheries Notwithstanding the many types of past contributions to
(Costello et al., 2012). Even so, there can exist multiple support nature, by many private actors, many outcomes
stable points of equilibria within such fully informed social- in private contexts often have indicated a need for public
ecological systems, given social and natural sources of responses to scarcities. Public actors with overarching
feedback. Fishing effort responds often to the state of mandates have not only set up appropriate frameworks to
the fish stock, which is in turn affected by fishing-effort address trade-offs − leading to quantity and price policies
levels. If sustainability-oriented decision rules imply that − but also lowered solutions’ transaction costs. For
the fishing effort falls as the scarcity of the fish rises, then instance, states have required information, e.g., labeling
they can stabilize stocks as can regulations informed by with energy use for refrigeration or, more involved,
ecological and human response models (Yun et al., 2017) certifications of legal sourcing for forest products, under
(Figure 2.1.23). which public rejections of illegally harvested timber
A
1.4
1.2
B/BMSY
1.0
Small Unassessed
Large Unassessed
0.8
Small Assessed
Large Assessed
0.6
1979 1989 1999 2009
YEAR
3000
STOCK BIOMASS (1,000T)
2000
Cod
Herring
Sprat
1000
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
YEAR
Figure 2 1 23 Fisheries can show positive trends into the future when adequately managed
and governed.
A The ratio of observed biomass to the biomass that would provide maximum sustainable yield (B/Bmsy) has stabilized for small
and large fisheries that are being constantly monitored (assessed). B Fisheries can stabilize at different equilibria level when
managed for single-species (dashed lines), and under ecosystem-based management (dot-dash lines).
Sources: Costello et al. (2012), Yun et al. (2017).
140
have occurred (e.g., under the EU’s FLEGT or the U.S. institutional challenges. Just as private collective action to
Lacey Act). form institutions was not always successful – given multiple
determinants of such coordination – public processes will
Further, many crucial incentives and empowerments of not always effectively address environmental and resource
private actors involved the creation or the enforcement of scarcity. Some actors do not wish to do so. This suggests
some form of right, such as indigenous lands or smallholder considerable attention is needed to environmental politics,
land tenure or firms’ concessions for timber harvesting or alongside policy design.
the right to clean air as implied by limitations on emissions.
Like private choices, establishment of such limitations or
rights has tended to respond to scarcity.
Stepping back, while in the past a large set of such

institutions have generated social efficiency, as well as
equity when attention has been given to that critical
outcome as well, in practice there exist considerable
141
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THE GLOBAL ASSESSMENT REPORT ON BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

2.1 Chapter 2.1

IPBES GLOBAL ASSESSMENT REPORT ON BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

Tessa Mazor (Australia), Paula Meli (Brazil), Sara Mingorria

2.1.2 PAST TRAJECTORIES, THEIR TRADE-OFFS AND INEQUALITIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

2.1.3 INDIRECT DRIVERS: VALUES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

2.1.4 INDIRECT DRIVERS: DEMOGRAPHIC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

2.1.5 INDIRECT DRIVERS: TECHNOLOGICAL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

2.1.6 INDIRECT DRIVERS: ECONOMIC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

2.1.6.2 Concentrated Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

2.1.6.4 Financial Flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

2.1.7 INDIRECT DRIVERS: GOVERNANCE – MARKET INTERACTIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

2.1.8 INDIRECT DRIVERS: GOVERNANCE – LOCAL COMMUNITY COORDINATION. . . . 93

2.1.9 INDIRECT DRIVERS: GOVERNANCE – STATES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95

2.1.9.1 Adjusting Development Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95

2.1.9.2 Increasing Conservation Policies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97

2.1.9.3 Equity Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

2.1.10 INDIRECT DRIVERS: GOVERNANCE – GLOBAL COORDINATION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103

2.1.11 INDIRECT-TO-DIRECT DRIVERS: ACTIONS THAT DIRECTLY AFFECT NATURE. . . 106

2.1.12 DIRECT DRIVERS OVERVIEW: AGGREGATING IMPACTS ACROSS SECTORS . . . 117

2.1.13 DIRECT DRIVERS: LAND/SEA-USE CHANGES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119

2.1.14 DIRECT DRIVERS: RESOURCE EXTRACTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

2.1.15 DIRECT DRIVERS: POLLUTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122

2.1.16 DIRECT DRIVERS: INVASIVE ALIEN SPECIES (IAS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126

2.1.17 DIRECT DRIVERS: CLIMATE CHANGE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126

2.1.18 PAST PATHWAYS: INCREASING CONNECTIVITY & FEEDBACKS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128

STATUS AND TRENDS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY while education affects changes in populations and per-

I-A. INDIRECT DRIVERS − VALUES 3 Education causes and is caused by economic

2.1.1 INTRODUCTION choices. We next consider ‘demographic’ (population,

3-Stabilization and recovery

GPD per Capita Imports of Nature

TIMES OF TRANSITION STYLIZED TRAJECTORIES

Governed by Others Exports of Nature

Renewable Some of both

TIMES OF TRANSITION STYLIZED TRAJECTORIES

Figure 2 1 2 Stylized sketches of average trajectories in developed countries outcomes A

MORE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Figure 2 1 3 Stylized sketches of cross-country interactions in trajectories for material

Instead, developed countries may conserve nature (e.g.,

ecological damage and social oppression (Goeminne

2.1.5 INDIRECT DRIVERS: abundant precipitation have extensive knowledge about

2.1.5.2 Technological changes in farming and agrobiodiversity. Looking globally, such

A Agriculture B Industry C Services

Global High Income Upper-middle income Lower-middle income Low income

Figure 2 1 5 Changes in economic composition: Value Added in Agriculture A versus Industry

3 Asia and the

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

A PHYSICAL TRADE BALANCE, 1980 B PHYSICAL TRADE BALANCE, 2008

Saudi Arabia The Russian Federation Australia

MAIN NET IMPORTERS OF MATERIALS

United States of America Japan China

Other Metals Fossil fuels Minerals Biomass

10. Cameroon 6. Sri Lanka

3. Papua New Guinea

2.1.6.4.3 Tax Havens 2.1.7 INDIRECT DRIVERS:

A CUMULATIVE SUM OF FOREST STEWARDSHIP COUNCIL (FSC)

Visuals prepared by the IPBES

B FISHERIES CERTIFIED BY THE MARINE STEWARDSHIP COUNCIL (MSC)

Visuals prepared by the IPBES

Figure 2 1 9 Temporal trends in certifications.

If rights are not clear, respected, and enforced, certification’s