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Creager and Francou-Rodier envelope curves for extreme floods in the Danube
River basin in Croatia

Conference Paper · November 2002

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Predictions in Ungauged Basins: PUB Kick-off (Proceedings of the PUB Kick-off meeting held in Brasilia, 221
20–22 November 2002). IAHS Publ. 309, 2007.

Creager and Francou-Rodier envelope curves for


extreme floods in the Danube River basin in
Croatia

DANKO BIONDIĆ1, DARKO BARBALIĆ1 & JOSIP PETRAŠ2


1 Croatian Waters, Ulica grada Vukovara 220, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
[email protected]
2 University of Zagreb, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Kačićeva 26, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia

Abstract This paper presents a comparison of Creager and Francou-Rodier


envelope curves for average maximum annual discharges, for the highest
observed discharges, and for maximum annual discharges of the 10-, 100- and
1000-year return periods in the Danube River basin in Croatia. They were
calculated on the basis of 99 available, sufficiently long and homogenous time
series of measured discharges.
Key words Creager’s method; Croatia; Danube River basin; envelope curves;
Francou-Rodier’s method; maximum discharges

INTRODUCTION

The Danube River basin is, after the Volga River basin, the second biggest basin in
Europe with a size of about 817 000 km2, with 18 riparian states and about 82 million
inhabitants.
In Croatia, the Danube River basin (Fig. 1) covers approximately 34 000 km2,
roughly 60% of the country’s land area, where approximately 65% of the total
population of the Republic of Croatia live. Major Croatian rivers, such as the Danube,
the Sava, the Drava, the Kupa, the Una and the Mura flow through this area. It is
located on the Pannonian plain and its rims, with the water divide separating it from
the Adriatic catchments running through the Dinaric karst.
The particular socio-economic significance of this area, not only for the Republic
of Croatia, but also for a greater region, emphasizes the importance of efficient flood
control. Although certain flood control activities in this area date from the 19th
century, systematic development of flood control systems did not begin until after the
catastrophic floods on the Sava, the Drava and their tributaries during the 1960s.
Gradual development of flood control systems in the last four decades has significantly
reduced potential damage, a fact proven by the successful reduction of numerous
recent floods. Most of the systems constructed are only partially completed, which
results in a continuing significant risk of flooding across large areas. Further
development of the flood and torrents control systems remains, therefore, one of the
strategic tasks of Croatian water management.
Basic information for further planning and design of flood control systems are
maximum discharges of required return periods in adequate locations along the water-
courses. These can be estimated by applying stochastic methods for sufficiently long
and homogenous time series of measured discharges at gauged locations, or by

Copyright © 2007 IAHS Press


222 Danko Biondić et al.

Fig. 1 Overview map of the locations of analysed gauging stations in the Danube
River basin in Croatia

deterministic methods at ungauged locations. Common hydrological practice also


recognizes the use of various methods for evaluation of reliability of such calculated
values. The aim of this paper is to compare two possible methods for evaluation of the
reliability of previously estimated values in the Danube catchment area in Croatia:
Creager’s and Francou-Rodier’s envelope curves for average maximum annual dis-
charges, for highest observed discharges, and for maximum annual discharges of the
10, 100 and 1000-year return periods in the Danube River basin in Croatia. Similar
investigations for large floods across the whole of Europe were performed by Stanescu
& Matreata, 1997.

THEORETICAL APPROACH AND INVESTIGATION PROCEDURE

Creager’s envelope curves of specific maximum discharges (Creager & Justin et al.,
1945) are formulated as follows:
Creager and Francou-Rodier envelope curves for extreme floods in the Danube River basin 223

c
q = aAbA
where q is specific maximum discharge (m3 s-1 km-2); A is catchment area (km2); and a,
b, c are regional parameters.
The Francou-Rodier envelope curves of maximum discharges (Francou & Rodier,
1967) are formulated as follows:
K
1
Q A 10
=
Q0 A0

where Q is maximum discharge (m3 s-1); A is catchment area (km2); K is the Francou-
Rodier coefficient; Q0 = 106 m3 s-1; and A0 = 108 km2.
Creager’s and Francou-Rodier’s envelope curves for the Danube River basin in
Croatia are defined on the basis of available time series of daily discharges which are
stored in the hydrological database of the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological
Service (Plantić, 1996).
The theoretical approach described above can be applied only when the series are
sufficiently long, homogenous and when there are no significant trends. Analyses of
time series homogeneity and trends were performed only for the maximum annual
discharge series at all gauging stations on the Danube River basin in Croatia that have
observation periods longer than or equal to 25 years (108 stations).
The analyses of homogeneity were performed by application of the Wilcoxon test
in such a way that the available series was split into two sub-series, depending on the
time of replacement of hydrometric equipment at the stations (rods to limnigraphs) and
depending on the timing of construction of major hydrotechnical structures with
significant impacts on the water regime (reservoirs, main dykes and distribution
structures). The presence of trends in the time series of maximum annual observed
discharges was tested using Mann’s test. On the basis of the homogeneity and trend
analyses performed, 100 time series of maximum annual discharges were selected for
further analysis.
The next step was probabilistic analysis of selected time series of maximum
annual observed discharges. Maximum annual discharges of 10-year return period
were calculated by application of an empirical distribution, and maximum annual
discharges of 100 and 1000-year return periods were calculated by applications of the
normal distribution (6 stations), log-normal distribution (18 stations), Gamma two-
parameter distribution (9 stations), Gumbel distribution (11 stations), Pearson III
distribution (27 stations) and log-Pearson III distribution (29 stations). The goodness
of fit was tested using the Kolmogoroff-Smirnoff test. The results of the probability
analysis of the time series are shown in Table 1.
The last step was to calculate the regional parameters a, b and c of Creager’s
formula and K of Francou-Rodier’s formula for each envelope curve by means of
logarithmic and regression analyses. Because of unreliability of the observed and
calculated maximum discharges at Petrina gauging station (No. 59) on the Kupa River,
these data were excluded from calculations of the regional parameters.
224 Danko Biondić et al.

Table 1 Basic characteristics of analysed gauging stations in the Danube catchment area in Croatia.
No. River Gauging station Catch- Observing period Discharges Q (m3 s-1)
ment (no. of years) Mean Average Max obs’d Maximum for return
area max (year of periods (years)
(km2) annual occurrence) 10 100 1000
DANUBE RIVER
1 Danube Batina 210250 1951–1989 (39) 2313 4841 8360 (1965) 6322 7860 9288
2 Danube Erdut 251593 1950–1989 (40) 2852 5443 9250 (1965) 7278 9580 11952
DRAVA RIVER BASIN
3 Drava Varaždin 15616 1951–1981 (31) 341 1286 2843 (1966) 1811 2776 3620
4 Drava Botovo 31038 1961–1998 (38) 514 1596 2652 (1972) 2369 3083 3936
5 Drava Terezino Polje 33916 1961–1998 (38) 526 1506 2889 (1972) 2382 3190 4420
6 Drava Donji Miholjac 37142 1926–1998 (71) 543 1360 2288 (1972) 1779 2269 2707
7 Drava Belišće 38500 1962–1993 (31) 556 1405 2232 (1972) 2021 2573 3242
8 Mura Mursko Središće 10891 1926–1998 (67) 171 732 1454 (1938) 1180 1651 2179
9 Mura Goričan 13148 1926–1998 (70) 161 642 1447 (1972) 996 1372 1713
10 Bednja Željeznica 308 1959–1998 (40) 4.04 59.9 112 (1959) 95.7 153 214
11 Bednja Ludbreg 547 1947–1998 (52) 7.29 80 179 (1972) 128 172 212
12 Trnava Jendrašiček 148 1956–1998 (42) 0.405 6.64 26.6 (1979) 14.1 24.4 34.1
13 Gliboki Potok Mlačine 84 1970–1998 (29) 0.731 19.2 34.2 (1986) 29.9 36.3 41.8
14 Koprivnica Koprivnica 122 1951–1998 (46) 0.645 23.5 55.9 (1963) 45.4 72.2 106
15 Komarnica Novigrad
Podravski 48 1958–1998 (40) 0.288 9.39 26.3 (1963) 19.1 35.7 59.1
16 Voćinka Mikleuš 173 1960–1998 (39) 2.18 54.5 107 (1972) 93 113 124
17 Vojlovica Čačinci 150 1968–1998 (28) 1.9 35.9 90 (1975) 61 90.1 115
SAVA RIVER BASIN
18 Sava Jesenice 10750 1964–1995 (32) 276 1846 3489 (1964) 2680 3745 4692
19 Sava Podsused 12316 1949–1995 (47) 306 1738 3332 (1990) 2571 3485 4747
20 Sava Zagreb 12450 1926–1995 (70) 314 1775 3126 (1964) 2348 3073 3633
21 Sava Rugvica 12712 1926–1995 (67) 312 1502 2357 (1990) 2069 2662 3327
22 Sava Crnac 22852 1955–1992 (38) 529 1935 2331 (1991) 2145 2360 2481
23 Sava Jasenovac 38958 1926–1991 (64) 784 1977 2716 (1970) 2291 2678 3052
24 Sava Stara Gradiška 40100 1937–1991 (54) 788 1899 2524 (1974) 2214 2588 2921
25 Sava Mačkovac 40838 1951–1990 (40) 823 2115 3018 (1974) 2519 3026 3438
26 Sava Davor 47200 1958–1993 (36) 931 2321 3130 (1974) 2697 3180 3560
27 Sava Slavonski Kobaš 49031 1926–1993 (65) 974 2411 3260 (1932) 2974 3379 3804
28 Sava Slavonski Brod 50858 1945–1993 (49) 944 2466 3476 (1974) 2891 3395 3751
29 Sava Županja 62891 1929–1998 (65) 1159 2942 4161 (1970) 3763 4393 5188
30 Bregana Bregana Remont 88.5 1970–1998 (29) 1.38 21.5 34.1 (1972) 31.1 41.2 51.8
31 Lipovačka Hamor
Gradna 19.11 1948–1998 (50) 0.381 4.26 7.4 (1989) 6.1 8.75 11.3
32 Rudarska Rudarska Draga
Gradna 15.6 1957–1994 (38) 0.255 4.49 8.79 (1962) 6.88 9.57 11.9
33 Vrapčak Gornje Vrapče 11.7 1970–1998 (29) 0.12 3.68 15.4 (1975) 6.79 16.1 34.9
34 Vrapčak Zagreb 15 1961–1998 (38) 0.168 4.73 17.4 (1975) 7.15 13.4 18.4
35 Črnomerec Fraterščica 7.37 1953–1998 (46) 0.084 2.18 8.42 (1954) 4.21 11.6 27.3
36 Kustošak Kustošija 6.08 1956–1998 (32) 0.054 2.58 10 (1961) 6.49 12.7 25.3
37 Medveščak Mihaljevac 14.15 1971–1998 (28) 0.135 3 11.6 (1989) 4.52 11 18.1
38 Bliznec Markuševac 4.97 1969–1998 (30) 0.076 1.51 5.08 (1995) 3.75 8.52 19
39 Štefanovec Dubrava 8.03 1961–1994 (30) 0.131 3.61 7.61 (1989) 5.85 8.41 11.2
40 Trnava Granešina 28.95 1954–1998 (44) 0.31 7.13 27.1 (1980) 12.6 28.2 52
41 Sunja Sunja 225 1965–1998 (31) 2.84 87.5 141 (1972) 134 177 208
42 Šumetlica Cernik 33.5 1972–1998 (27) 0.291 6.45 13.7 (1986) 9.8 15 19.9
43 Sutla Brezno 109 1946–1975 (30) 1.34 21.8 38.6 (1969) 31.4 40.3 49.8
44 Sutla Miljana 263 1947–1976 (30) 4.19 65.8 77 (1964) 70.9 76.1 80
45 Sutla Zelenjak 455 1958–1998 (41) 7.27 123 250 (1964) 184 246 310
46 Krapina Kupljenovo 1150 1964–1998 (35) 11.8 154 268 (1989) 207 274 329
47 Zelina Božjakovina 186 1957–1998 (38) 1.64 28.9 47.9 (1959) 44.8 64.9 86.5
48 Lonja Bisag 88.8 1952–1982 (31) 0.768 15.6 22.8 (1966) 18.9 21.5 22.9
49 Lonja Lonjica 326 1972–1998 (27) 1.88 21.8 52.7 (1976) 27.7 51.3 69.6
50 Česma Narta 881 1958–1998 (41) 5.43 51.1 104 (1993) 70.6 99.7 123
51 Česma Čazma 2877 1963–1998 (36) 15.1 98.3 171 (1993) 147 197 256
52 Ilova Veliko Vukovje 995 1945–1998 (52) 7.36 71.5 151 (1972) 89.6 139 169
53 Bijela Badljevina 170 1969–1998 (30) 1.61 23.6 36.7 (1980) 30.5 33.7 35.1
54 Orljava Pleternica 745 1970–1998 (29) 5.25 63.4 117 (1987) 98.2 120 139
55 Londža Pleternica 483 1973–1998 (25) 1.87 36.8 87.2 (1987) 64.3 101 138
56 Una Hrvatska Kostajnica 8876 1926–1991 (65) 228 1138 1808 (1955) 1392 1677 1823
Creager and Francou-Rodier envelope curves for extreme floods in the Danube River basin 225

No. River Gauging station Catch- Observing period Discharges Q (m3 s-1)
ment (no. of years) Mean Average Max obs’d Maximum for return
area max (year of periods (years)
(km2) annual occurrence) 10 100 1000
KUPA RIVER BASIN
57 Kupa Kupari 208 1951–1998 (48) 13.5 141 195 (1966) 170 199 222
58 Kupa Hrvatsko 370 1957–1998 (40) 20.5 287 419 (1966) 384 485 599
59 Kupa Petrina 528 1951–1992 (42) 26.6 455 1079 (1952) 641 898 1140
60 Kupa Radenci 1304 1951–1992 (42) 53.7 647 920 (1968) 809 945 1034
61 Kupa Pribanjci 1492 1949–1985 (37) 61.8 675 1021 (1966) 862 1028 1167
62 Kupa Ladešić Draga 1590 1956–1998 (42) 58.4 700 1010 (1966) 851 975 1049
63 Kupa Kamanje 2192 1957–1998 (40) 73.3 811 1145 (1966) 967 1139 1266
64 Kupa Brodarci 3405 1957–1998 (41) 110 944 1237 (1968) 1160 1305 1419
65 Kupa Rečica 5923 1948–1982 (35) 171 1137 1533 (1966) 1450 1667 1791
66 Kupa Jamnička Kiselica 6805 1948–1978 (31) 180 967 1581 (1953) 1416 1791 2351
67 Kupa Šišinec 7274 1950–1991 (41) 182 949 1259 (1974) 1114 1338 1503
68 Kupa Farkašić 8902 1965–1992 (26) 196 1048 1631 (1974) 1281 1593 1839
69 Kupa Brest 9021 1926–1974 (49) 206 1006 1523 (1974) 1204 1382 1481
70 Čabranka Zamost 103 1950–1998 (49) 3.72 76 128 (1984) 115 143 169
71 Kupica Brod na Kupi 291 1951–1998 (48) 13.7 146 357 (1993) 194 293 377
72 Kupčina Strmac 125 1959–1998 (40) 2.18 22.7 45.8 (1974) 38.7 57.4 88
73 Kupčina Lazina Brana 169 1973–1998 (26) 2.07 22.9 28.8 (1989) 27.7 30.8 32.4
74 Križ Potok CP Križ 5.4 1963–1998 (36) 0.312 14.3 28.3 (1982) 22.5 29.9 37.6
75 Vela Voda Crni Lug 3.7 1963–1998 (36) 0.208 7.98 12.7 (1965) 12 16.8 22.4
76 Bela Voda Crni Lug 1.8 1963–1998 (36) 0.106 5.42 9.78 (1963) 9.13 11.5 14.3
77 Leska Leska 0.25 1963–1998 (26) 0.015 0.603 1.31 (1963) 0.933 1.44 1.92
78 Klada Klada 0.33 1963–1998 (26) 0.018 0.443 1.2 (1963) 0.904 1.49 2.34
79 Gornja Dobra Luke 175 1947–1998 (51) 7.04 109 166 (1968) 135 161 179
80 Gornja Dobra Turkovići 296 1963–1998 (33) 10 118 154 (1998) 148 178 205
81 Vitunjčica Brestovac 34 1967–1998 (31) 3.28 31.3 40 (1998) 36.8 39.6 41.9
82 Donja Dobra Trošmarija 821 1960–1998 (39) 27.9 163 246 (1966) 194 226 246
83 Donja Dobra Donje Stative 1049 1960–1998 (39) 34.9 249 372 (1966) 309 393 451
84 Ribnjak Lučanjek 50 1948–1975 (27) 3.01 16.4 25.7 (1962) 22.8 28.5 33.8
85 Globornica Generalski Stol 32 1949–1975 (27) 1.02 18.8 31.4 (1966) 30.7 42.5 60.6
86 Mrežnica Juzbašići 683 1947–1998 (46) 12.4 92.4 166 (1989) 122 148 166
87 Mrežnica Mrzlo Polje 975 1947–1998 (52) 29.5 254 373 (1974) 329 390 445
88 Tounjčica Ožanići 118 1948–1975 (28) 10.4 70.1 95.6 (1952) 89.4 98.8 108
89 Munjavčica Josipdol 44.1 1948–1975 (27) 0.431 3 5.84 (1968) 4.85 6.78 9.06
90 Korana Korana 232 1952–1986 (35) 3.09 19.2 36.2 (1957) 28 37.4 50.5
91 Korana Slunj 614 1964–1998 (29) 11.1 137 271 (1973) 217 298 402
92 Korana Veljun 943 1949–1998 (44) 23 264 460 (1955) 363 438 495
93 Korana Velemerić 1297 1946–1997 (46) 28.8 327 571 (1948) 453 616 769
94 Plitvice – Kozjak Most
Kozjak 169 1953–1991 (33) 3.55 16.2 28.9 (1955) 24.2 33.2 40
Plitvice – Plitvički
95 Matica Ljeskovac 20.6 1952–1991 (37) 2.42 12 49.5 (1976) 14.3 23.4 29.7
96 Slunjčica Slunj 220 1949–1983 (35) 9.48 58.5 80 (1962) 72.6 80.6 86.5
97 Radonja Tušilović 224 1967–1998 (26) 3.32 27.5 40.7 (1987) 35.1 43.6 50.2
98 Glina Maljevac 183 1953–1986 (34) 3.37 38.5 90.6 (1959) 52.7 82.4 108
99 Glina Vranovina 889 1947–1998 (45) 14.1 146 344 (1974) 275 411 619
100 Glina Glina 1145 1952–1998 (40) 18.3 178 395 (1955) 290 438 607

RESULTS

By applying the described methodology, Creager’s and Francou-Rodier’s envelope


curves of maximum specific discharges and maximum discharges were defined for
average maximum annual discharges, for the highest observed discharges and for
maximum annual discharges of the 10, 100 and 1000-year return periods. The results
obtained are shown in Figs 2, 3, 4 and 5.
The summary overview of the calculated regional parameters a, b, c of Creager’s
formula, and K of Francou-Rodier’s formula is shown in Table 2.
226 Danko Biondić et al.

10

77 76 74

78 75
95
59
36
33 70 7158
35 34 81
1 38 39 85
40 7957
37 88
606 1
q (m / s / km )
1716 41 62
2
32 15 80 45 63
84
14 98 91
92
93
31 42 13
304372 96 10 99
87
83
100 64
11 82 18
44 19
48 47 86 46 65 20
66
3

53 56
94 97
1273
90 49
55
54 52 69 213
6768
89 8
50 9
0.1 22
45
2528
23 2729
672426
51

12
MAXIMUM OBSERVED DISCHARGES
CREAGER'S ENVELOPE CURVE
FRANCOU - RODIER'S ENVELOPE CURVE
A (km 2 )
0.01
0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000

Fig. 2 Creager’s and Francou-Rodier’s envelope curves of maximum observed


specific discharges in the Danube River basin in Croatia.

100000 K = 5
K = 4
MAXIMUM OBSERVED DISCHARGES K = 3
FRANCU - RODIER'S ENVELOPE CURVE K = 2
CREAGER'S ENVELOPE CURVE K = 1
10000 12

18 29
19 28
25227
6
20 213 5 23
22 4 67
24
56
656 6 68
698 9
64 67
1000 59 62 63
Q (m 3 /s)

60 61
93
58 92100
71 87
9983
45 91 82 46
7957 80 1186
52 51
70 41
10 5450
100 881716
9896 55
44
95 14 47 49
81 72 97
85 3043 53 90
13
40 73
94
74 15
84 48 12
33 34 42
75 37
10 76 36
35 32
39 31
38 89

77 78 A (km 2)
1
0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
Fig. 3 Creager’s and Francou-Rodier’s envelope curves of maximum observed
discharges in the Danube catchment area in Croatia

10

1
q (m / s / km )
2
3

0.1
AVERAGE MAXIMUM ANNUAL SPECIFIC DISCHARGES
MAXIMUM OBSERVED SPECIFIC DISCHARGES
SPECIFIC MAXIMUM DISCHARGES 10 YEARS RETURN PERIOD
SPECIFIC MAXIMUM DISCHARGES 100 YEARS RETURN PERIOD
SPECIFIC MAXIMUM DISCHARGES 1000 YEARS RETURN PERIOD
2
A (km )
0.01
0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
Fig. 4 Creager’s envelope curves of maximum specific discharges in the Danube
River basin in Croatia.
Creager and Francou-Rodier envelope curves for extreme floods in the Danube River basin 227

100000 K = 5
K = 4
AVERAGE MAXIMUM ANNUAL DISCHARGES K = 3
MAXIMUM OBSERVED DISCHARGES K = 2
MAXIMUM DISCHARGES 10 YEARS RETURN PERIOD K = 1
MAXIMUM DISCHARGES 100 YEARS RETURN PERIOD
10000 MAXIMUM DISCHARGES 1000 YEARS RETURN PERIOD

1000 Q (m 3 /s)

100

10

A (km 2)
1
0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
Fig. 5 Francou-Rodier’s envelope curves of maximum discharges in the Danube River
basin in Croatia.

Table 2 Summary overview of calculated regional parameters.


Discharges Creager’s formula Francou–Rodier formula
a b c K
Average maximum annual 3.5 0.918 –0.034 3.478
Maximum observed 6.0 0.920 –0.033 3.808
Maximum of 10-year return period 5.5 0.894 –0.034 3.711
Maximum of 100-year return period 6.9 0.919 –0.035 3.899
Maximum of 1000-year return period 8.7 0.903 –0.032 4.132

CONCLUSION

The relationships presented in this paper were calculated on the basis of 99 available
and sufficiently long homogenous time series of observed discharges at gauging
stations on the Danube River basin in Croatia and can be used for evaluation of the
reliability of previously calculated maximum discharges for this area. Comparisons
between the calculated envelope curves show that the Francou-Rodier envelopes give
smaller values of maximum discharges than Creager’s envelopes for all catchment
areas except very small and very large ones.
Because of the climate, relief and geological diversity of the investigated area,
further studies of envelope curves of maximum discharges in the Danube River basin
in Croatia should be directed to sub-regionalization. Further regional studies of flood
characteristics in the Danube catchment area in Croatia should be also directed to
analysis of flood wave volumes and durations.

REFERENCES
Biondić, D., Barbalić, D. & Petraš, J. (2002) Envelope curves of maximum specific discharges in the Danube River
catchment area in Croatia. In: Proc. XXIst Conference of the Danube Countries on Hydrological Forecasting and
Hydrological Bases of Water Management (September 2002, Bucharest, Romania).
228 Danko Biondić et al.

Creager, W. P., Justin, J. D. & Hinds, J. (1945) Engineering for Dams, vol. 1. John Wiley, New York, USA.
Francou, J. & Rodier, J. A. (1967) Essai de classification des crues maximales observees dans le monde. In: Cah.
ORSTOM. ser. Hydrol, vol. IV(3).
Plantić, K. (1996) Hydrological data base for the Danube Catchment Area in Croatia. In: Proc. XVIIth Conference of the
Danube Countries on Hydrological Forecasting and Hydrological Bases of Water Management (September 1996,
Graz, Austria).
Stanescu, V. Al. & Matreata, M. (1997) Large floods in Europe. In: FRIEND – Flow Regimes from International
Experimental and Network Data, Third report: 1994–1997. Cemagref Editions, Antony, France.

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