Paper 6-2021
Paper 6-2021
* 0 3 5 8 1 3 5 9 0 2 *
1 hour 40 minutes
INSTRUCTIONS
● Answer both part A (Questions 1 to 5) and part B (Questions 6 to 9).
● Use a black or dark blue pen. You may use an HB pencil for any diagrams or graphs.
● Write your name, centre number and candidate number in the boxes at the top of the page.
● Write your answer to each question in the space provided.
● Do not use an erasable pen or correction fluid.
● Do not write on any bar codes.
● You should use a graphic display calculator where appropriate.
● You may use tracing paper.
● You must show all necessary working clearly, including sketches, to gain full marks for correct methods.
● In this paper you will be awarded marks for providing full reasons, examples and steps in your working
to communicate your mathematics clearly and precisely.
INFORMATION
● The total mark for this paper is 60.
● The number of marks for each question or part question is shown in brackets [ ].
DC (LK/CB) 207548/3
© UCLES 2021 [Turn over
2
A INVESTIGATION (QUESTIONS 1 TO 5)
This investigation is about the distances between points on square and triangular grids.
All points have integer coordinates.
–4 –3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3 4 x
–1
–2
–3
–4
1 The points which are next closest to (0, 0) are its 2nd nearest neighbours.
One of these points has coordinates (1, 1).
............................................................................................................................................................. [2]
Show that the distance from (0, 0) to (1, 1), a 2nd nearest neighbour, is 2.
[2]
3 The table shows information about the nth nearest neighbours to (0, 0) for values of n from 1 to 11.
d is the distance from (0, 0) to a nearest neighbour.
n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
d2 1 2 4 5 8 9 10 13 16 17 18
d 1 2 8 3 10 13 4 17 18
Number of nth
4 4 4 8 8 4 8 4
nearest neighbours
[2]
(c) The 12th nearest neighbours to (0, 0) are at a distance h, where h 2 = 20.
.....................................................................................................................................................
..................................................................................................................................................... [3]
© UCLES 2021 0607/62/M/J/21 [Turn over
4
–8 –7 –6 –5 –4 –3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 x
–1
–2
–3
–4
–5
The two 1st nearest neighbours to (0, 0) have circles around them.
The four 2nd nearest neighbours to (0, 0) have squares around them.
The four 3rd nearest neighbours to (0, 0) have triangles around them.
d2 1 4 5 9 13 16
[3]
© UCLES 2021 0607/62/M/J/21
5
y
4
(– 2, 3) (2, 3)
3
–3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3 4 x
–1
–2
–3
–4
The circles show the 1st and 2nd nearest neighbours to (0, 0).
The six 1st nearest neighbours to (0, 0) have coordinates (0, 1), (1, 0), (1, -1), (0, -1), (-1, 0) and
(-1, 1).
(a) Points are not always integer distances from (0, 0).
(i) Complete this table to show when a point is an integer distance from (0, 0).
Integer distance 3
................................................. [2]
A a b c
= =
sin A sin B sin C
c b
a 2 = b 2 + c 2 - 2bc cos A
B
a C
y
3
d
1
–4 –3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3 4 x
–1
–2
–3
............................................................................................................................................. [1]
................................................. [2]
(c) A point on a triangular grid has coordinates (a, b), where a and b are positive integers.
[2]
(d) Use the formula in part (c) to calculate the distance of a 6th nearest neighbour from (0, 0).
Give your answer as a square root.
O
x
................................................. [3]
© UCLES 2021 0607/62/M/J/21 [Turn over
8
(e) Use the formula d = a 2 + b 2 + ab to show that it is not possible for a nearest neighbour to
be a distance of 14 from (0, 0) on a triangular grid.
[4]
B MODELLING (QUESTIONS 6 TO 9)
Planners need to estimate the probability of extreme events such as high river flow.
To do this they use the return period, R years.
This is an estimate of the number of years before they expect another high river flow.
A model for R is
n+1
R=
h
where
n is the number of years for which there are river flow results,
h is the number of times that high river flow occurs during the n years.
1
The probability of high river flow occurring in any year is .
R
Example
On 3 occasions during a period of 65 years, a river flow was greater than
4000 cubic metres per second (m3/s).
So, the return period for a water flow greater than 4000 m3/s is
65 + 1 66
R= =
3 3
= 22 years.
This is not very likely in a year, but very likely in the lifetime of a bridge designed to last for 100 years.
1
The probability of a river flow greater than 4000 m3/s in any year is .
22
6 These are the maximum flows, in m3/s, each year for a small river.
30 119 13 30 9 64 19 83 71 64 37 61
55 33 131 91 78 59 32 29 121 7 56 65
(a) Calculate the return period, R, for a flow greater than 100 m3/s.
................................................. [2]
(b) Use your answer to part (a) to find the probability of a flow greater than 100 m3/s the next year.
................................................. [1]
(i) Write an expression, in terms of p, for the probability of the event not occurring in one year.
................................................. [1]
(ii) Find an expression, in terms of p, for the probability of the event not occurring for
10 consecutive years.
................................................. [1]
(iii) Explain why the probability of the event occurring at least once in 10 consecutive years is
1 - (1 - p) 10 .
............................................................................................................................................. [1]
(b) A model for the probability, y, of a flow greater than 130 m3/s occurring in the river in Question 6
at least once in x years is y = 1 - (1 - 0.04) x .
0 x
0 25
[3]
(ii) Find the number of years that pass before the probability of a flow greater than 130 m3/s first
becomes greater than 50%.
................................................. [2]
8 The table shows the probabilities of various river flows in a year at Waverly on the Missouri River in
the USA.
Use figures from the table to decide whether or not this is a reasonable model.
..................................................................................................................................................... [2]
Use figures from the table to decide whether or not this is a reasonable model.
..................................................................................................................................................... [2]
(c) Another model for the data is p = 0.0048F 2 - 0.1619F + 1.3281 for 2 G F G 22 .
The dashed line on the diagram shows the graph of this model.
(i) Plot the values from the table on the previous page onto the grid.
The first 7 points have been done for you.
p
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 F
– 0.1
[1]
(ii) Give the ranges of values of F for which p = 0.0048F 2 - 0.1619F + 1.3281 is a good
model and not a good model.
9 Engineers use this formula to model the probability of high river flows.
a
-f e o p
F
b
p=3
[2]
1
(b) Give a reason why 8 is the best integer estimate for b when p = .
3
Use part (a) and values from the table for the Missouri River on page 12 in your answer.
..................................................................................................................................................... [1]
a
-f e o p
F
b
(c) (i) On the axes below, sketch three graphs of p = 3 for 0 G F G 25.
Use b = 8 and
• a = 0.5,
• a = 1,
• a = 2.5 .
The graph with b = 8 and a = 10 is sketched for you.
0
25 F
[4]
............................................................................................................................................. [2]
(iii) Describe the effect on the graph when a increases and the flow is between 6000 m3/s and
8000 m3/s.
............................................................................................................................................. [1]
(iv) Which value of a gives the best model for the Missouri River data on page 12?
Give a reason for your answer.
............................................................................................................................................. [2]
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