Stda 1
Stda 1
Term: I
• VISUALIZATION
• NUMERICAL MEASURES
• CORRELATION/ REGRESSION
• TIMESERIES/ PROBABILITY
ASSESSMENT
• QUIZ 5 10 marks in 10 minutes → 40
• Attendance 5 marks
INTRODUCTION
Chapter 1 - Data and Statistics
• Statistics
• Applications in Business and Economics
• Data
• Data Sources
• Descriptive Statistics
• Statistical Inference
• Analytics
• Big Data and Data Mining
• Computers and Statistical Analysis
• Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice
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• E-commerce sites spend an average of Rs. 5000 to acquire each
customer.
• A survey of 1,179 adults 18 and over reported that 54% thought that
15 seconds was an acceptable online ad length before seeing free
content.
• Data are facts about the world and are constantly reported as numbers
by an ever increasing number of sources. SOCIAL MEDIA
• In today’s digital world ever increasing amounts of data are gathered, stored,
reported on, and available for further study.
• Storage → CLOUD
• They can count on other people’s summaries of data and hope they are
correct.
• They can develop their own capability and insight into data by learning
about statistics and its application to business.
Decision
making
Knowledge
Information
DATA
STATISTICS
COLLECTION
COMPILATION
CLASSIFICATION
PRESENTATION
ANALYSIS &
INTERPRETATION OF DATA
• Because we want:
- Competitive Edge
• e.g., for you and your business!
Why a Manager Needs to Know about Statistics
Accounting
• Public accounting firms use statistical sampling procedures when
conducting audits for their clients.
Economics
• Economists use statistical information in making forecasts about the future
of the economy or some aspect of it.
Finance
• Financial advisors use price-earnings ratios and dividend yields to guide
their investment advice.
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Applications in Business and Economics
Marketing
• Electronic point-of-sale scanners at retail checkout counters are used to
collect data for a variety of marketing research applications.
Production
• A variety of statistical quality control charts are used to monitor the output
of a production process.
Information Systems
• A variety of statistical information helps administrators assess the
performance of computer networks.
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APPLICATION OF STATISTICS
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Elements, Variables, and Observations
• Elements are the entities on which data are collected.
• A variable is a characteristic of interest for the elements.
• The set of measurements obtained for a particular element is called
an observation.
• A data set with n elements contains n observations.
• The total number of data values in a complete data set is the number
of elements multiplied by the number of variables.
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Data, Data Sets, Elements, Variables, and Observations
Variables
Company Stock Exchange Annual Sales ($M) Earnings per share ($)
Dataram NQ 73.10 0.86
EnergySouth N 74.00 1.67 Observation
Element Names Keystone N 365.70 0.86
LandCare NQ 111.40 0.33
Psychemedics N 17.60 0.13
Data Set
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How Many Variables?
• Univariate data set: One variable measured for each elementary unit
• e.g., Sales for the top 30 computer companies.
• Can do: Typical summary, diversity, special features
• Bivariate data set: Two variables
• e.g., Sales and # Employees for top 30 computer firms
• Can also do: relationship, prediction
• Multivariate data set: Three or more variables
• e.g., Sales, # Employees, Inventories, Profits, …
• Can also do: predict one from all other variables
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Scales of Measurement
Nominal scale
• Data are labels or names used to identify an attribute of the element.
• A nonnumeric label or numeric code may be used.
Example
Students of a university are classified by the school in which they are
enrolled using a nonnumeric label such as Business, Humanities, Education,
and so on.
Alternatively, a numeric code could be used for the school variable (e.g. 1
denotes Business, 2 denotes Humanities, 3 denotes Education, and so on).
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Scales of Measurement
Ordinal scale
• The data have the properties of nominal data and the order or rank of
the data is meaningful.
• A nonnumeric label or numeric code may be used.
Example
Students of a university are classified by their class standing using a
nonnumeric label such as Freshman, Sophomore, Junior, or Senior.
Alternatively, a numeric code could be used for the class standing
variable (e.g. 1 denotes Freshman, 2 denotes Sophomore, and so on).
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Scales of Measurement
Interval scale
• The data have the properties of ordinal data, and the interval between
observations is expressed in terms of a fixed unit of measure.
• Interval data are always numeric.
Example
Melissa has an SAT score of 1985, while Kevin has an SAT score of 1880.
Melissa scored 105 points more than Kevin.
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Scales of Measurement
Ratio scale
• Data have all the properties of interval data and the ratio of two values is
meaningful.
• Ratio data are always numerical.
• Zero value is included in the scale.
Example:
Price of a book at a retail store is $ 200, while the price of the same book sold
online is $100. The ratio property shows that retail stores charge twice the
online price.
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Usage Potential of Various
Levels of Data
Ratio
Interval
Ordinal
Nominal
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Categorical Data
• Labels or names are used to identify an attribute of each element
• Often referred to as qualitative data
• Use either the nominal or ordinal scale of measurement
• Can be either numeric or nonnumeric
• Appropriate statistical analyses are rather limited
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Quantitative Data
• Quantitative data indicate how many or how much.
• Quantitative data are always numeric.
• Ordinary arithmetic operations are meaningful for quantitative data.
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Scales of Measurement
Data
Categorical Quantitative
Non-
Numeric Numeric
numeric
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Cross-Sectional Data
Cross-sectional data are collected at the same or approximately the
same point in time.
Example
Data detailing the number of building permits issued in November
2013 in each of the counties of Ohio.
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Time Series Data
Time series data are collected over several time periods.
Example
Data detailing the number of building permits issued in Lucas County,
Ohio in each of the last 36 months.
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Example
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Data Sources
Data Available From Internal Company Records
Record Some of the Data Available
Employee records Name, address, social security number
Production records Part number, quantity produced, direct labor cost, material cost
Inventory records Part number, quantity in stock, reorder level, economic order quantity
Sales records Product number, sales volume, sales volume by region
Credit records Customer name, credit limit, accounts receivable balance
Customer profile Age, gender, income, household size
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Data Sources
Data Available From Selected Government Agencies
Government Agency Web address Some of the Data Available
Census Bureau www.census.gov Population data, number of households, household income
Federal Reserve Board www.federalreserve.gov Data on money supply, exchange rates, discount rates
Office of Mgmt. & Budget www.whitehouse.gov/omb Data on revenue, expenditures, debt of federal government
Department of Commerce www.doc.gov Data on business activity, value of shipments, profit by industry
Bureau of Labor Statistics www.bls.gov Customer spending, unemployment rate, hourly earnings, safety
record
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Data Sources
Statistical Studies – Observational
• In observational (nonexperimental) studies no attempt is made to
control or influence the variables of interest.
• Example - Survey
• Studies of smokers and nonsmokers are observational studies
because researchers do not determine or control who will smoke and
who will not smoke.
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Data Sources
Statistical Studies – Experimental
• In experimental studies the variable of interest is first identified. Then
one or more other variables are identified and controlled so that data
can be obtained about how they influence the variable of interest.
• The largest experimental study ever conducted is believed to be the
1954 Public Health Service experiment for the Salk polio vaccine.
Nearly two million U.S. children (grades 1- 3) were selected.
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Data Acquisition Considerations
Time Requirement
• Searching for information can be time consuming.
• Information may no longer be useful by the time it is available.
Cost of Acquisition
• Organizations often charge for information even when it is not their
primary business activity.
Data Errors
• Using any data that happen to be available or were acquired with little
care can lead to misleading information.
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Descriptive Statistics
• Most of the statistical information in newspapers, magazines,
company reports, and other publications consists of data that are
summarized and presented in a form that is easy to understand.
• Such summaries of data, which may be tabular, graphical, or
numerical, are referred to as descriptive statistics.
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Descriptive Statistics
• Collect data
• e.g., Survey
• Present data
• e.g., Tables and graphs
• Characterize data
• e.g., Sample mean =
X i
n
Alliance University: Executive PGDM
Example
The manager of Hudson Auto would like to have a better understanding
of the cost of parts used in the engine tune-ups performed in her shop.
She examines 50 customer invoices for tune-ups. The costs of parts,
rounded to the nearest dollar, are listed on the next slide.
Example: Hudson Auto Repair
Sample of Parts Cost ($) for 50 Tune-ups
91 78 93 57 75 52 99 80 97 62
71 69 72 89 66 75 79 75 72 76
85 97 88 68 83 68 71 69 67 74
62 82 98 101 79 105 79 69 62 73
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Tabular Summary: Frequency and Percent
Frequency
Parts Cost ($) Frequency Percent Frequency
50-59 2 4%
60-69 13 26%
70-79 16 32%
80-89 7 14%
90-99 7 14%
100-109 5 10%
TOTAL 50 100%
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Graphical Summary: Histogram
Example: Hudson Auto Tune-up Parts Cost
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16
14
12
Frequency
10
0
50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99
Parts Cost ($)
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Numerical Descriptive Statistics
• The most common numerical descriptive statistic is the mean (or
average).
• The mean demonstrates a measure of the central tendency, or central
location of the data for a variable.
• Hudson’s mean cost of parts, based on the 50 tune-ups studied is $79
(found by summing up the 50 cost values and then dividing by 50).
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Statistical Inference
Population: The set of all elements of interest in a particular study.
Sample: A subset of the population.
Statistical inference: The process of using data obtained from a sample
to make estimates and test hypotheses about the characteristics of a
population.
Census: Collecting data for the entire population.
Sample survey: Collecting data for a sample.
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Process of Statistical Inference
Example: Hudson Auto
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Statistical Inference
Statistical inference is the process of making an estimate, prediction, or decision about a population
based on a sample.
Population
Sample
Inference
Statistic
Parameter
• Business analytics
• Use SM to analyze and explore data to uncover unforeseen relationships.
• Use MS methods to develop optimization models that impact an organization’s
strategy, planning, and operations
• Big data
• Collections of data that cannot be easily browsed or analyzed using traditional
methods.
• Use information systems’ methods to collect and process data sets of all sizes,
including very large data sets that would otherwise be hard to examine
efficiently
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Data warehousing
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Data Mining
• Methods for developing useful decision-making information from
large databases.
• Using a combination of procedures from statistics, mathematics, and
computer science, analysts “mine the data” to convert it into useful
information.
• The most effective data mining systems use automated procedures to
discover relationships in the data and predict future outcomes
prompted by general and even vague queries by the user.
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Data Mining Applications
• The major applications of data mining have been made by companies
with a strong consumer focus such as retail, financial, and
communication firms.
• Data mining is used to identify related products that customers who
have already purchased a specific product are also likely to purchase
(and then pop-ups are used to draw attention to those related
products).
• Data mining is also used to identify customers who should receive
special discount offers based on their past purchasing volumes.
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Data Mining Requirements
• Statistical methodology such as multiple regression, logistic
regression, and correlation are heavily used.
• Also needed are computer science technologies involving artificial
intelligence and machine learning.
• A significant investment in time and money is required as well.
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Data Mining Model Reliability
• Finding a statistical model that works well for a particular sample of
data does not necessarily mean that it can be reliably applied to other
data.
• With the enormous amount of data available, the data set can be
partitioned into a training set (for model development) and a test set
(for validating the model).
• There is, however, a danger of overfitting the model to the point that
misleading associations and conclusions appear to exist.
• Careful interpretation of results and extensive testing is important.
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ETHICAL ISSUES
Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice
• In a statistical study, unethical behavior can take a variety of forms
including:
• Improper sampling
• Inappropriate analysis of the data
• Development of misleading graphs
• Use of inappropriate summary statistics
• Biased interpretation of the statistical results
• One should strive to be fair, thorough, objective, and neutral as you
collect, analyze, and present data.
• As a consumer of statistics, one should also be aware of the
possibility of unethical behavior by others.
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Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice
• The American Statistical Association developed the report “Ethical
Guidelines for Statistical Practice”.
• It contains 67 guidelines organized into 8 topic areas:
• Professionalism
• Responsibilities to Funders, Clients, Employers
• Responsibilities in Publications and Testimony
• Responsibilities to Research Subjects
• Responsibilities to Research Team Colleagues
• Responsibilities to Other Statisticians/Practitioners
• Responsibilities Regarding Allegations of Misconduct
• Responsibilities of Employers Including Organizations, Individuals, Attorneys, or
Other Clients
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Statistical software
• MS- EXCEL
• Minitab
• SAS
• SPSS
• StatTools