Sabiiti Banana Yields Climate Change

See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.
net/publication/299560304
Empirical Relationships between Banana Yields and Climate Variability over

Uganda
Article · April 2016
CITATIONS READS
21 1,862
9 authors, including:
Geoffrey Sabiiti Joseph Ininda

Igad Climate Prediction and Applications Centre University of Nairobi
17 PUBLICATIONS 117 CITATIONS 14 PUBLICATIONS 209 CITATIONS
SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE
Laban Ogalo Franklin J Opijah

University of Nairobi University of Nairobi
66 PUBLICATIONS 3,411 CITATIONS 27 PUBLICATIONS 123 CITATIONS
SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE
Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:
THE INFLUENCE OF RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY ON MAIZE PRODUCTION IN UASIN GISHU AND TRANS-NZOIA COUNTIES View project
Climate models evaluation View project
All content following this page was uploaded by Joseph Ininda on 10 July 2018.
The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

Sabiiti et al., 2016. 7:03-13. Journal of Environmental and Agricultural Sciences (ISSN: 2313-8629)
Research Article Open Access
Empirical Relationships between Banana Yields and

Climate Variability over Uganda
Geoffrey Sabiiti 1,3*, Joseph Mwalichi Ininda2, Laban Ogallo2,3, Franklin Opijah2, Alex Nimusiima1, George
Otieno2,3, Saul Daniel Ddumba1, Jamiat Nanteza1, Charles Basalirwa1
1
Department of Geography, Geo-informatics and Climatic Sciences, Makerere University, Uganda
2
Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Kenya
3
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), Kenya .
Article History Abstract: Variations in weather and climate have a significant impact on rain-fed banana yields in
Received East Africa. This study examined empirical linkages between banana yields and variations in rainfall
November 30, 2015 and temperature over Uganda for the historical period (1971-2009) using time series moments,
Published Online correlation and regression analysis. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Crop Water
March 31, 2016 Assessment Tool (CROPWAT) was used to estimate banana crop water requirements, soil moisture
deficits and their effects on banana yield levels under rain-fed conditions for different regions. The
Keywords: study observed high comparability in moment indices with some significant differences reflected in the
Empirical linkages,
Journal of Environmental & Agricultural Sciences (JEAS). Volume 7
values of the banana yields and rainfall and temperature moment indices. The cumulative effect of
Rainfall, rainfall and temperature variations on banana yields was discernible from strong correlation
Temperature,
coefficients of up to 78%. The CROPWAT simulations indicated up to 46% reductions in optimal
Soil moisture,
banana yields due to soil moisture deficits within banana plantations. In conclusion, the study observed
Banana yields
stronger linkages between banana yields and temperature variations than rainfall. In addition,
temperature manifests both direct and indirect effects on banana growth while rainfall exhibits
comparatively high intra-seasonal and intra-annual variability with lag effects on banana yields. The
study provides a strong scientific basis for the development of coping, adaptation and mitigation
strategies in the banana farming subsector in the region due to the anticipated shifts in rainfall and
temperature extremes and changes across Uganda and neighbouring regions.
*Corresponding authors: Geoffrey Sabiiti: [email protected]
Cite this article as: Sabiiti, G., J.M. Ininda, L. Ogallo, F. Opijah, A. Nimusiima, G. Otieno, S.D. Ddumba, J.
Nanteza and C. Basalirwa. 2016. Empirical relationship between banana yields and climate variability over
Uganda. Journal of Environmental & Agricultural Sciences. 7: 03-13.
This is an open access article distributed undethe terms of the Creative Commons
Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in
any medium provided the original author and source are properly cited and credited.
Copyright © Sabiiti et al., 2016
1. Introduction that yield decline over Uganda accelerated in the

The Banana is a major perennial multi-cycle food 1970s and 1980s.
crop that enhances food security in Uganda and Factors that may lead to the loss in yield have
sustains smallholder farmers’ incomes in Uganda due been studied by several authors, including the loss in
to its ability to provide continuous cycles of mature banana productivity associated with deteriorating soil
fruits all year round. Banana has a life cycle of 15 to fertility (Bekunda and Woomer, 1996; Gold et al.,
18 months from planting to harvesting; the 1999a; Zake et al., 2000; Nyombi, 2013), drought
plantations can last for several years depending on occurrences and inadequate soil moisture (Okech et
environmental and biological conditions, soil al., 2004; Van Asten et al., 2010; Nyombi, 2010; Van
characteristics and crop management practices et al., 2012; Umesh et al., 2015), banana weevils,
(Wairegi et al., 2010; Nyombi, 2013). Recent studies mainly Cosmopolites Sordidus (Gold et al., 1999),
(Van Asten et al., 2010; Wairegi et al., 2010) have banana parasitic nematodes including Radopholus
observed that banana productivity (production per similis and Helicotylenchus multicintus (Jeger et al.,
hectare or yield) has been declining in the recent 1996; Speijer et al., 1999b; Speijer and Kajumba,
years. Reports on the decline in banana yield in 2000), and banana plant diseases like Black
Uganda date back to the 1940s and 1950s (Masefield, Singatoka, Banana Streak Virus and Banana Wilt
1949; McMaster, 1962). Gold et al. (1999b) observed (Tushemereirwe, 2006). Besides a possible decline in
(3)
the banana productivity, several experimental studies observed variations in rainfall and temperature over
indicate that there exists a huge disparity between Uganda.
actual yields of 5 to 30 t.ha-1.yr-1 and on-farm and on- 2. Methodology
station trials attainable yields of 60 to 70 t.ha-1.yr-1 Banana data used in the study included
(Smithson et al., 2001; Tushemereirwe et al., 2001; information on banana production, area of banana
Van Asten et al., 2004). harvested and banana yields at the national and
Based on current observations, the future state of district level for the period 1971 to 2009, including
climate variations and extremes is likely to affect the data from the Uganda Census of Agriculture
banana productivity in Uganda. Wairegi et al. (2010) (UCA, 2008/09). Climate data consisted of insitu and
attributed the decline in banana yields in southwest gridded observations of rainfall and air temperature
Uganda to climate variations as they affect all records over Uganda. The insitu climate datasets were
ecosystems, including extreme rainfall (floods and obtained from the Uganda National Meteorology
droughts), hailstorms, and high surface air Authority (UNMA) and the IGAD Climate Prediction
temperatures. The effects of climatic factors on and Applications Centre (ICPAC) for the rainfall
banana crop and yields depends on the stage of the homogeneous zones over Uganda as shown in Fig.
crop at the time of occurrence of climate extremes, as 1(a) (Ogallo, 1980; 1988; Basalirwa, 1991; Indeje et
well as the overall cumulative effects depending on al., 2000; Komutunga, 2006).
the duration and frequency of the extreme climate Fig. 1(b) shows agro-climatic zones, the major
events within a given crop cycle (Van Asten et al., agricultural systems and representative climate
2010; Nyombi, 2010; Nyombi, 2013).
observational stations of Uganda. Banana is

Mainstreaming scientific climate information in predominantly grown over the western, southwestern,
banana farming for effective coping and adaptation central and eastern regions of Uganda. The study
mechanisms has the potential to promote banana therefore mainly focussed on zones labelled B and C
productivity, food security, farmers’ incomes and (Fig. 1b). Other regions were, however, included in
sustainable development in Uganda and neighbouring the simulation of crop water requirements for the
regions (Surendran et al., 2014; Ampaire et al., 2015). banana crop using the Food and Agriculture
The objective of this paper was to examine the Organization (FAO) Crop Water Tool (CROPWAT).
linkages between current banana yields and the
Fig. 1. Representative observational stations for different homogeneous zones (a) and Agro-climatic
zones and agricultural systems (b) (Adopted from Mwebaze, 1999) of Uganda.
(4)
annual rainfall and temperature stress has

significant effects on annual banana yields and
allows correlating annual rainfall and temperature
and banana yield. The method of correlation
analysis has been widely used (Shukla and Paolino,
1983; Ogallo, 1988; Ininda, 1994; Sabiiti, 2008;
Omondi, 2010; Otieno et al., 2014) to investigate
relationships between variables. Regression
analysis was undertaken for cases where correlation
coefficients were significant. The study used a
degree 2 polynomial regression model to determine
the threshold values of the climatic (independent)
Fig 2. FAO estimated trends in Uganda’s variables that would give optimal banana yield
standardized Banana area harvested (blue bars), (dependent) levels under different/contrasting non-
production (orange bars), and yield (black line) climatic factors. A test of the adequacy of the
during the period 1971 - 2009. model was done by computing R² (the multiple
coefficient of determination). For R² = 0, it implies
Before data was analysed using moments, lack of fit, while R² = 1 implies perfect fit. The
standardization was undertaken for easy adjusted R2 has been recommended as a better
comparison of moments. Several studies (Ogallo measure of variance explained and has been used in
and Nasib, 1984; Ininda, 1995; Kabanda and Jury, interpretation of results. The F-test based on the
1999; Sabiiti, 2008; Omondi 2010; Otieno, 2013) Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used to test
have used standardized indices of variables to for the significance of the coefficients of the
investigate relationships and linkages between polynomial regressions. The approach adopted in
variables. this study is based on the banana growth –
Empirical parameters were derived from the temperature curve.
first, second, third, and fourth moments of the The FAO Crop Water Assessment Tool (FAO-
specific time series represented by the mean, CROPWAT) was used to evaluate the current water
variance, skewness (extremes distributions), and stress (moisture deficits) and yield losses resulting
kurtosis (peakedness) respectively. For the first from observed rainfall variability over different
moment, the inter-annual trends of the individual parts of Uganda. Based on the FAO CROPWAT,
banana yields and rainfall and temperature time the study used the FAO Penman-Montieth method
series were examined. Parameters examined under to calculate reference evapotranspiration (ETo),
the second moment included recurrences of large banana crop water requirement (ETm), cumulative
positive/negative rainfall and temperature extremes. moisture deficit (MDH) at harvest and yield
The study period was subdivided into two parts; losses/reductions (YR) for various locations. Since
1971-1990 and 1991-2009. Means for standardized banana production in Uganda is predominantly
data were then computed and compared for rainfall, rain-fed, the CROPWAT model (FAO, 2003;
temperature and banana yields. Examining the Karanja, 2006) was run under rain-fed conditions.
changes in the third moment involved computing Using the soil moisture content and
skewness coefficients. Under the same principle, evapotranspiration rates, the model determined soil
the fourth moment represented by the Kurtosis (K) water balance on daily basis.
was computed for the two sub periods. The
usefulness of the moments of time series in data
analysis and comparing different series has been
demonstrated graphically in the IPCC, 2012 on
determining changes in extremes and changes in
symmetry in climate variables.
Other methods used to further examine the
existing linkages between banana yields and
rainfall and temperature variability included
correlation and regression. Under correlation
analysis, Pearson’s product-moment correlation
coefficient was used as a measure of the degree of Fig. 3: Annual banana production (%, blue) and
agreement between variables. The significance of area harvested (%, orange) for Central, Eastern,
the correlation coefficients was tested using the Western and Northern regions of Uganda.
statistical t-test. It was assumed that cumulative
(5)
2010), and occurrence of weather and climate

extremes that lead to droughts in banana growing
regions of Uganda (Van Asten et al., 2010; Van et
al. 2012; Surendran et al., 2014; Umesh et al.,
2015).
Fig. 3 shows the percentages of production and
area harvested from the different sub regions of
Uganda for the period 2008/09 following the
Uganda Census of Agriculture (UCA, 2008/09).
The results indicated that the central region
contributed about 20% of the total production with
Fig. 4: Banana production (metric tones) for 41% of total area harvested. Eastern region
district during 2008/2009. Census of Agriculture in contributed about 3% of total production with less
Uganda. than 3% of the total area harvested; the western and
southwestern regions combined contributed over
The output tables were then used for the 60% of total production with about 50% of the total
assessment of the resultant effects of area harvested. However, northern Uganda had the
water/moisture stress and efficiency of rainfall (ER) lowest production and area harvested of the banana
on banana yield for two banana crop cycles across crop. The western, southwestern and central
the Country. Uganda, therefore, are the major banana production
3.Results and Discussion zones with the highest banana productivity reported
This section presents the results and provides in southwestern Uganda followed by central parts
some discussion on observed banana statistics, of the country (Fig. 3).
analysis of moments, correlation and regression
analysis and the estimates of FAO CROPWAT
simulation.
3.1 Observed banana production
Fig. 2 depicts interannual anomalies of banana
area harvested, banana production and banana yield
for the period 1971-2009. The mean value for
analysis was computed for 1971-2000 period. The
study observed a decline in banana production
especially for the year 1973, while the year 1995
recorded the maximum in banana production.
Major causes of this variability in banana yield
figures have been attributed by many researchers to Fig. 5: Banana yields (metric tones ha-1 year-1) per
banana pests and disease outbreaks district for 2008/2009 Uganda Census of
Agriculture in Uganda.
(Tushemereirwe et al., 2004), a shift from banana
production to other crops by farmers (Wairegi et al.,
Table 1. Comparison of time series moments of normalized rainfall, air temperature (maximum,
minimum) and banana yields over western Uganda
Variables/moments/ periods Rainfall Maximum Minimum Banana Yields
Temperature Temperature
Mean 1971-2009 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1971-1990 -0.63 -0.06 -0.60 -0.76
1991-2009 0.60 0.06 0.56 0.72
Standard deviation 1971-2009 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
1971-1990 0.56 1.07 0.78 0.67
1991-2009 0.55 0.95 0.86 0.68
Skewness coefficient 1971-2009 -0.42 0.23 0.35 0.06
1971-1990 0.06 0.46 0.53 -1.42
1991-2009 -0.04 -0.01 0.45 1.77
Kurtosis coefficient 1971-2009 -0.31 0.15 -0.43 1.46
1971-1990 -0.99 1.34 -0.60 1.08
1991-2009 -0.77 0.92 -0.82 1.05
Bold values indicate agreement on the direction)
(6)
Figs. 4 and 5 show the production levels and

yields for selected districts, respectively. Although
the banana production level in Mbale and Bududa
districts is still low (Fig. 4) due to a small area of
growing bananas, this region shows the highest
level of yield values (Fig. 5). The low production
levels of banana in the some cases can be attributed
to the cultural values of communities in these
districts that prefer other alternative crops as food
and cash crops (maize and millet) and limited
market for bananas. On the other hand, the high
yields (Fig. 5) of bananas in Mbale and Bududa
areas can be associated with high rainfall on the
windward side of Mt. Elgon that is evenly
distributed throughout the year in addition to fertile
soils down slope of mountain.
The results (Fig. 4) further indicated that
western districts (Bushenyi, Mbarara, Kabarole and
Ntungamo) of Uganda recorded higher production
figures than central districts (Masaka, Mubende,
Mpigi and Rakai). Fig. 5 on the other hand,

indicated relatively high banana yields over the
western districts than for both the central and
eastern districts. The high productivity of bananas
in the western region has been attributed to the
relatively cool temperatures (Van Asten et al., 2010;
Washington and Pearce, 2012; Nyombi, 2013;
Surendran et al., 2014).
Spatial patterns of harvested area (ha),
production (metric tones) and yields (metric
tones .ha-1) of banana for the year 2008/2009 (Fig.
6) showed that harvested area ranged from 1,529 –
23,627 ha (Central Region) to 46,953 ha
(Southwestern region). Fig. 6 (B) shows that the
production of banana is highest in the southwestern
sector and estimated at 290,891 – 552,075 metric
tones, that reduces towards central, eastern regions
with very little or no banana production in the
northern districts. On the other hand, Fig. 6 (C)
depicts the productivity (metric tones per hectare)
for the year 2008/09 over Uganda. The results in
Fig. 6 (C) indicated that highest banana
productivity is currently observable over
southwestern parts of the Country especially
Bushenyi, Mbarara and Ntugamo districts.
High to moderate productivity levels were
observed in the Central (around L. Victoria),
Eastern (areas around Mbale and Mt. Elgon), and
northwestern parts of Uganda particularly Arua
district. It is notable, however, that the production
levels in the eastern and northwestern regions are
still much lower compared to western and central
districts.
Fig. 6: Spatial patterns of banana area harvested
(ha) (A), production (metric tones) (B) and yields
(metric tones ha-1) (C) for 2008/2009 over Uganda
[based on GIS interpolation of banana data].
(7)
Table 2: Comparison of time series moments of normalized rainfall, maximum, minimum surface air
temperatures and banana yields (highlighted values indicate strong linkages) over central Uganda
Variables/moments/ periods Rainfall Maximum Minimum Banana
Temperature Temperature Yields
Mean 1971-2009 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
1971-1990 -0.83 -0.27 -0.79 -0.70
1991-2009 0.60 0.26 0.75 0.66
Standard 1971-2009 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
deviation 1971-1990 0.98 0.97 0.66 0.45
1991-2009 0.55 0.98 0.60 0.93
Skewness 1971-2009 -0.62 0.46 -0.04 0.95
coefficient 1971-1990 0.06 0.54 0.08 -0.18
1991-2009 -0.17 0.52 0.62 0.76
Kurtosis 1971-2009 -0.41 0.27 -0.54 1.02
coefficient 1971-1990 -0.87 0.92 -0.70 -1.09
1991-2009 -0.57 0.20 0.72 1.09
A
A
B
B
Fig. 7: Relationship between banana yield (metric Fig. 8. Relationship between banana yield (metric
tones ha-1) and minimum surface air temperature tones ha-1) and minimum surface air temperature
(oC) [A]; maximum surface air temperature ( oC) (oC) [A]; maximum surface air temperature ( oC)
[B] for the western region of Uganda. [B] for central region of Uganda.
There is limited banana production activity in 3.2 Analysis of Moments
the northern part of the Country with moderate Tables 1 and 2 show the results of the time
productivity levels over northwestern parts of the series moments for standardized climatic variables
Country. Despite high annual rainfall totals, the dry and banana yields over the western and central
spells longer than three months and high surface air parts of Uganda, respectively. The results show that
temperatures in the northern parts of the country there were some cases when the moment values for
have been a major limitation to banana production both rainfall and temperature and bananas were
in the region.
(8)
comparable indicating close linkages between Table 3. Correlation coefficients (coefficient of

variations in banana yields and variability in determination (R2)) between climatic variables and
rainfall and temperature series. Significant banana yields for western and central regions of
differences were, however, noted in the values of Uganda.
rainfall and temperature and bananas moment Region Tmin Tmax Rainfall
values. This may partly be attributed to other non- Western 0.72 0.78 0.34
climatic factors that affect banana productivity (R2=52%) (R2=61%) (R2=12%)
including variations in soil fertility, pests and Central 0.41 0.53 0.51
diseases, management practices and policies among (R2=17%) (R2=28%) (R2=26%)
others as illustrated by different studies (Salami et
al., 2010; Washington and Pearce, 2012; Wiggins The variations in annual rainfall explain about
and Keats, 2013; Surendran et al., 2014; Ampaire et 14% (Fig. 9A) and 26% (Fig. 9B) of variation in
al., 2015). banana yields for central and western regions of
Uganda respectively. The results provide evidence
3.3 Correlation and Regression Analysis that the responsiveness of banana productivity to
The use of zero time lagged correlation variations in rainfall and temperature over the
coefficients and polynomial regressions were western region is higher than that observable over
employed to further investigate linkages between the central region. The Country’s current minimum
variations in banana yields and rainfall and and maximum temperature levels in western and
temperature variations. central Uganda still support favourable growth of
Table 3 shows results of correlation coefficients bananas. Any further increases in temperatures
between banana yields and climatic variables. The beyond the optimal values will adversely affect
results indicated close linkages between banana banana production in many parts of Uganda. It has
yields and surface air temperature variability with been noted in several other studies that warm
lower correlation values between banana yields and temperatures are associated with the high
rainfall anomalies for the two regions. The western population densities of banana nematodes and
region showed a stronger response of variation in weevils (Speijer et al., 1993) especially in the
banana yields for both minimum and maximum central region that tend to affect banana
surface air temperature than the central region. productivity.
Figs. 7 – 9 show the relationships between
variations in banana yield and climatic parameters. A
The increase in minimum and maximum air
temperatures is associated with an increase in
banana yields up to an optimal value of air
temperature beyond which any further increase in
temperatures would result into a drop in yields. The
results (Fig. 9) observed that an increase in rainfall
progressively increases banana yields up to the
optimal level beyond which the additional rainfall
would negatively affect yields. The optimal levels
for different locations vary across a location and
depend on the environmental and soil B
characteristics for the location.
The results observed that in the western region,
variations in minimum temperature explain about
52% of the variations in banana yields, variations in
maximum temperature explain about 61%
variations in banana yield and variations in annual
rainfall explain about 14% of the variation in
banana yields. The F-test based on the Analysis of
Variance (ANOVA) confirmed the significance of
the coefficients of the polynomial regressions. In
the central region (Fig. 8A), results indicated that Fig. 9: Relationship between banana yield (metric
variations in minimum temperature explained about tones ha-1) and rainfall (mm) for western [A] and
central [B] regions of Uganda.
17% of the variations in banana yields, variations in
maximum temperature explain about 28% of the
variations in banana yield (Fig. 8B).
(9)
Table 4. Banana crop water statistics and yield reductions (YR) from the CROPWAT model for two
crop cycles (highlighted values indicate cases of high yield losses).
First crop cycle Second crop cycle
AWU PWU MD ER YR AWU PWU MD ER YR
Location (mm) (mm) (mm) (%) (%) (mm) (mm) (mm) (%) (%)
Kabale 898.6 945.9 8.5 88.1 5 654.2 872 78 97.3 25
Mbarara 885.2 1065.8 50.2 89.6 16 678.7 995.4 88.6 98.9 31.8
Kasese 888.5 1243.7 71 94.5 28.6 685.5 1099.2 106.9 97.6 24.6
Kitgum 888.5 1650.8 65.2 64.9 46.2 960.2 1348.4 121.8 85.5 28.8
Lira 950.2 1502.8 50.2 64.6 36.8 1021.5 1206.4 117 86.7 15.3
Mbale 915.3 1374.8 43.9 78 33.4 811.9 1152.1 113.6 92.3 29.5
Hoima 1000.7 1124.8 39.7 67 11 918 1061.9 74.2 81.5 22.9
Moroto 699.2 1281 62.2 73.8 45.4 683.3 1093.7 118.6 93.3 37.5
Mubende 1016.3 1316.1 60.3 79.5 22.8 925.5 1139.4 102.3 98.2 18.8
Namulonge 1020.3 1190.3 11.3 83.9 14.3 816.7 1031.9 91.3 96.2 20.9
Soroti 931.1 1451.7 40.9 67.6 35.9 993.2 1230.7 115.6 90.8 19.3
Tororo 1090.7 1309.2 17.8 76.4 16.7 944.4 1107.5 99.9 90.5 14.7
Jinja 1050.9 1163.9 11.1 81.2 9.7 855.5 1027 87.8 95.5 16.7
Arua 888.4 1385.9 71.7 58.1 35.9 1014.9 1122 114.5 81.5 9.5
Gulu 901 1417.6 40.8 56.5 36.4 990.6 1149.9 118.6 74.2 13.9
AWU: actual water use; PWU: potential water use ; MD: moisture deficit; ER:rain efficiency ; YR: yield reduction.
3.4 Results from CROPWAT simulations minimize on the water shortages and hence promote
The results (Table 4) observed that notable yields.
differences in the water requirements and actual water 4. Conclusion
use by banana crop exist across the Country while This study focused on assessing the linkages
variations in related parameters are evident. For between banana yields and rainfall and temperature
example, in all banana growing regions, potential variability over Uganda. The data used included
water use by the crop is still higher than actual water banana yields, observed rainfall and air temperature
use implying that there is a moisture deficit and hence for the period 1979-2008. All the data was
yield reduction in most areas is inevitable. Moisture standardized to allow for visual comparisons between
deficits can either be reduced through irrigation or banana yields and climate parameters. The
mulching, the latter is commonly practiced in the relationship between banana yields and climate
southwestern region to improve crop yields at farm parameters was assessed using timeseries moments,
level (Nyombi, 2013). correlation and regression analyses. These analyses
The results further indicated that the first cycle of focussed on the central and westerns regions of
banana harvest is associated with higher yield Uganda. In addition, process based crop water
reductions (YR) and lower rain efficiency (ER) than assessment tool, FAO-CROPWAT was used to
the second cycle of crop harvest. This is attributable investigate the effects of intra-seasonal rainfall
the differences in crop canopy for the two crop cycles. variations on rain-fed banana yields over different
In addition the seasonal rainfall variations are parts of Uganda. The study found relatively strong
important. Regions that experience more than three linkages between banana yields and climate
months of rainfall shortages including Kitgum, Lira, parameters over various locations. High
Moroto and Gulu areas can hardly sustain rain-fed comparability indices for both banana yields and
banana production and have yield reductions greater climate parameters were noted from analysis of
than 35% of optimal yields. The results from this moment. Significant differences were, however,
study are consistent with findings of previous studies noted in the values of the rainfall and temperature and
(Van Asten et al., 2010; Nyombi, 2010; Van et al. bananas moment values. The cumulative effect of
2012; Nyombi, 2013; Umesh et al., 2015) among rainfall and temperature variations on banana yields
many others who reported that moisture stress in one be seen from correlation and regression results [0.78
of the major banana yield loss factors in many parts (R2=61%)].
of Uganda. Intensive mulching is necessary in the
plantations to promote moisture conservation and There are both direct and indirect effects of air
temperatures on banana yields which make air
temperature variations strongly linked to banana
(10)
yields. The weak linkage between rainfall and banana Division.

productivity is attributed to stronger inter- and intra- http://www.fao.org/ag/AGL/AGLW/climwat.stm.
seasonal and annual variations exhibited by rainfall Accessed 27 August 2012.
that are important to understand effects of rainfall Gold, C.S., N.D.T.M. Rukazambuga, E.B. Karamura, P.
variations on banana yields. In addition, the effect of Nemeye and G. Night. 1999. Recent advances in
rainfall on banana yields may be lagged. The results banana weevil biology, population dynamics and
have indicated varied levels of moisture deficits pest status with emphasis on East Africa.
across banana growing areas of Uganda. These Proceedings of a workshop on banana IPM held in
Nelspruit, South Africa, 23-28 November 1998. In:
moisture deficits have been associated with yield
E. A. Frison, C.S. Gold, E. B Karamura and R. A.
reductions of up to 46% of optimal banana yields.
Sikora (eds.) 59:171-180.
Current banana yields are affected by rainfall and Gold, C.S., E.B. Karamura, A. Kiggundu, F. Bagamba,
temperature variability and extremes over Uganda. and A.M.K. Abera. 1999a. Monograph on
The study recommends detailed experimental studies geographic shifts in highland cooking banana (Musa,
to provide field based baseline information to group AAA-EA) production in Uganda. J. Africa
characterise the relationships between banana yields Crop Science. 7:223–298.
and rainfall and temperature variations in addition to Gold, C.S., E.B. Karamura, A. Kiggundu, F. Bagamba
other factors that determine banana yields. The study and A.M.K. Abera. 1999b. Geographic shifts in
results offer potent information to banana farmers, highland cooking banana (Musa spp., group AAA-
EA) production in Uganda. International Journal of
regional agricultural institutions and the Government
Sustainable Agriculture and World Ecology 6:45-59.
of Uganda to adjust their farming practices to cope,

National Council for Science and Technology
adapt and mitigate the thrilling effects of rainfall and (UNCST) in Collaboration with Program for
temperature variability on the yields of bananas and Biosafety Systems (PBS), July 2007.
other crops over Uganda and neighbouring regions. Indeje, M., F.H.M., Semazzi, and L.J. Ogallo. 2000.
Acknowledgements: This work was jointly funded by ENSO signals in East African rainfall seasons. Int. J.
the Makerere University, IGAD Climate Prediction and Climatol., 20:19-46.
Applications Centre (ICPAC) and Department for Ininda, J.M. 1994. Numerical Simulation of the
International Development (DfID) of UK government. influence of sea surface temperature anomalies on
Data/materials were sourced from the Uganda National the East African seasonal rainfall PhD. Thesis,
Meteorological Authority (UNMA), Ministry of University of Nairobi. Kenya.
Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF), Ininda, J.M. 1995. Simulation of the impact of sea
and International Institute for Tropical Agriculture surface temperature anomalies on the short rains
(IITA). Authors wish to thank the staff of these over East Africa. J. African Meteor. Soc. 3(1):127-
institutions for the support to accomplish this work. 140.
Kabanda, T.A., and M.R Jury. 1999. Inter-annual
Competing Interests: The authors declare that there variability of short rains over northern Tanzania.
is no potential conflict of interest. Climate Res. 13:231-241.
References Karanja, F. K. K. (2006). CROPWAT model analysis of
Ampaire, E. L., Happy, P., Van Asten, P., Radeny, M. crop water use in six districts in Kenya, CEEPA
2015. The role of policy in facilitating adoption of Discussion Paper No. 35, CEEPA, University of
climate-smart agriculture in Uganda. CGIAR Pretoria.
Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture Komutunga, T.E. 2006. Optimum cropping calendars
and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, derived for rain-fed agriculture of Uganda from
Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org rainfall data. PhD Thesis, Department of
Basalirwa, C. 1991. Rain gauge network designs for Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Kenya.
Uganda. PhD. Thesis, Department of Meteorology, Masefield, G.B. 1949. The Uganda Farmer. Longman,
University of Nairobi, Kenya. London.
Bekunda, M., and P.L. Woomer. 1996. Organic resource McMaster, D.N. 1962. A Subsistence Crop Geography
management in banana based cropping systems of of Uganda. The world land use survey. Occasional
the Lake Victoria basin, Uganda. Agric. Ecosyst. papers no. 2. Geographical Publications Limited.
Environ. 59:171−180. Bude, Cornwall, England, 111.
FAO. (2003). Water Resources, Development and Nyombi, K. 2010. Understanding growth of East Africa
Management Service. CLIMWAT: A climatic highland banana: experiments and simulation. PhD
database for CROPWAT. (Food and Agriculture Thesis, Wageningen University, Netherlands.
Organisation), FAO Land and Water Development
(11)
Nyombi, K. 2013. Towards sustainable highland banana production D.R. Vuylsteke, eds.). 14-18 October, 1996.
in Uganda: opportunities and challenges. African Journal Kampala, Uganda. ActaHorticulturae. 540:453-459.
for Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development, Speijer, P.R., C. Kajumba, and F. Sango. 1999b. East
13:7544–61. African Highland banana production as influenced
Ogallo, L.A. 1980. Time series analysis of rainfall in by nematodes and crop management in Uganda. Int.
East Africa: PhD. Thesis, Department of J. Pest Manage. 45:41–49.
Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Kenya. Speijer, P.R., W.J. Buchenberg, and R.A. Sikora. 1993.
Ogallo, L.A. 1988. Relationship between seasonal Relationship between nematodes, weevils, bananas
rainfall in East Africa and Southern Oscillation, J. and plantains cultivars and damage. Ann. App. Biol.
Clim. 8:34-43. 123:517-525.
Ogallo, L.A. and I.R. Nassib. 1984. Drought patterns Surendran, A., K.R., Ashok, S.N. Kulshreshtha, I.
and famines in East Africa during 1922-1983: The Vellangany, and R. Govindasamy. 2014. Does
second WMO symposium on meteorological aspects Climate Variability Influence Crop Yield? - A Case
of Tropical droughts, 1984, 41-44. Study of Major Crops in Tamil Nadu. Agricultural
Okech, S.H., P.J.A. Van Asten, C.S. Gold, and H. Ssali. Economics Research Review. 27(1):61-71.
2004. Effects of potassium deficiency, drought and Tushemereirwe, W.K. 2006. Experiences with banana
weevils on banana yield and economic performance bacterial wilts: the national strategy for the
in Mbarara, Uganda. Uganda J. Agric. Sci. 9:511– management of BXW in Uganda. In: Karamura, E.B.,
519. Osiru, M., Blomme, G., Lusty, C., Picq, C. (Eds.),
Omondi, A.P. 2010. The teleconnections between Proceedings of the Banana Xanthomonas Wilt
decadal rainfall variability and global sea surface Regional Preparedness and Strategy Development
temperatures and simulation of future climate Workshop. Kampala, Uganda, 14–18 February 2005.
scenarios over East Africa. PhD thesis, University of International Plant Genetic Resources Institute,
Nairobi. Montpellier, 13–16.
Otieno, G.L., F.J. Opijah, J.N. Mutemi, L.A. Ogallo, Tushemereirwe, W.K., I. Kashaija, W. Tinzaara, C.
R.O. Anyah, V.O. Ongoma, and G. Sabiiti. 2014. Nankinga, and S. New. 2001. A guide to successful
Seasonal rainfall forecasting using multimodel banana production in Uganda. Banana Production
ensemble technique over Greater Horn of Africa, Int. Manual, first ed. NARO, Kampala.
J. Phys. Sci, 2(6):096-104. Tushemereirwe, W.K, A. Kangire J. Kubiriba, M.
Otieno, G. 2013. Assessing the Skill of the Seasonal Nakyanzi, and C.S. Gold. 2004. Diseases threatening
Rainfall Prediction over the Greater Horn of Africa banana biodiversity in Uganda. J. Afr. Crop Sci. 12
Using Global Models as Multi-model Ensemble. (1):19-26.
MSc thesis, University of Nairobi. Umesh, A., A.P. Nejadhashemi, and S.A. Woznicki.
Sabiiti, G. 2008. Simulation of climate scenarios using 2015. Climate change and eastern Africa: A review
the PRECIS Regional Climate Model over the Lake of impact on major crops. Food and Ener. Sec.
Victoria basin: MSc. Dissertation, Department of 4(2):110-132.
Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Kenya. Van Asten, P.J., A.M. Fermont and G. Taulya. 2010.
Salami, A., A.B. Kamara, and Z. Brixiova. 2010. Drought is a major yield loss factor for rain-fed East
Smallholder agriculture in east Africa: Trends, African highland banana. Agricultural Water
constraints and opportunities. Working Papers Series Management, 98:541–552.
No. 105. African Development Bank, Tunis, Tunisia. Van den B.I., J. Ramirez, C. Staver, D.W. Turner, A.
Shukla, J. and D.A. Paolino. 1983. The Southern Jarvis and D. Brown. 2012. Climate Change in the
Oscillation and the long-range Forecasting of the Subtropics: The Impacts of Projected Averages and
Summer Monsoon Rainfall over India. Mon. Wea. Variability on Banana Productivity. Acta Hortic.
Rev. 111:1830-1837. 928:89-99.
Smithson, P.C., B.D. McIntyre, C.S. Gold, H. Ssali, I.N. Wairegi, L.W.I., P.J. Van Asten, A. Tenywa and M.
Kashaija. 2001. Nitrogen and potassium fertilizer vs. Bekunda. 2010. Abiotic constraints override biotic
nematode and weevil effects on yield and foliar constraints in East African highland banana systems.
nutrient status of banana in Uganda. Nutr. Cycl. Field Crops Res. 117:146–153.
Agroecosyst. 59:239–250. Washington, R. and H. Pearce. 2012. Climate Change in
Speijer, P.R. and C. Kajumba. 2000. Yield loss from East African Agriculture: Recent Trends, Current
plant parasitic nematodes in East African highland Projections, Crop-climate Suitability, and Prospects
banana (Musa spp. AAA) in Proceedings of the First for Improved Climate Model Information. CGIAR
International Conference on Banana and Plantain for Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture
Africa. (K. Craenen, K. R. Ortiz, B.E. Karamura, and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen,
Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org.
(12)
Wiggins, S., and S. Keats. 2013. Leaping and learning: Zake, Y.K., D.P. Bwamiki and C.N. Kwiine. 2000. Soil
linking smallholders to markets in Africa. management requirements for banana production on
Agriculture for Impact, Imperial College and the heavy soils around Lake Victoria in Uganda.
Overseas Development Institute London. Acta Hort. 540:285−292.
INVITATION TO SUBMIT ARTICLES:

Journal of Environmental and Agricultural Sciences (JEAS) (ISSN: 2313-8629) is an Open Access, Peer
Reviewed online Journal, which publishes Research articles, Short Communications, Review articles,
Methodology articles, Technical Reports in all areas of Biology, Plant, Animal, Environmental and
Agricultural Sciences. For information contact editor JEAS at [email protected].
Follow JEAS at Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/journal.environmental.agricultural.sciences
Join LinkedIn Group: https://www.linkedin.com/groups/8388694
(13)
View publication stats

Sabiiti Banana Yields Climate Change

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Sabiiti Banana Yields Climate Change

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.

Empirical Relationships between Banana Yields and Climate Variability over

Article · April 2016

Geoffrey Sabiiti Joseph Ininda

SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE

Laban Ogalo Franklin J Opijah

SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE

Climate models evaluation View project

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

Research Article Open Access

Empirical Relationships between Banana Yields and

1. Introduction that yield decline over Uganda accelerated in the

observational stations of Uganda. Banana is

annual rainfall and temperature stress has

2010), and occurrence of weather and climate

Figs. 4 and 5 show the production levels and

Mpigi and Rakai). Fig. 5 on the other hand,

comparable indicating close linkages between Table 3. Correlation coefficients (coefficient of

yields. The weak linkage between rainfall and banana Division.

of Uganda to adjust their farming practices to cope,

INVITATION TO SUBMIT ARTICLES:

View publication stats

You might also like