Evolutionary Theorizing in Economics: Richard R. Nelson and Sidney G. Winter
Evolutionary Theorizing in Economics: Richard R. Nelson and Sidney G. Winter
textbooks and journals from prior to World War II with after, it is clear that while
economics before the war still contained many evolutionary strands and concepts,
these seemed to vanish in the early postwar period. What happened?
The central factor, we believe, was the increasing fixation of neoclassical
economic theory on equilibrium conditions (as contrasted with, for example,
Alfred Marshall’s considerable attention to economic dynamics) and the mathe-
matical formulation of that theory (Hicks and Allen, 1934; Samuelson, 1947). It
became the standard view that microeconomic theory was about equilibrium
conditions. That theory treated questions about economic progress awkwardly and
pushed them to the side.
A corollary of this shift was a subtle but important change in the connotations
of “profit maximization.” In earlier writings, the striving for profits was a standard
assumption about business motivation, but mathematically stated theories inter-
preted it as true optimization with a sharply defined opportunity set. No longer was
it legitimate to think of firms as gradually groping, innovating or evolving toward
more profitable ways of doing things. Similarly, no longer was equilibrium treated
in terms of where the economy was tending, but rather where it was actually
located. Analysis of deviations from equilibrium was considered difficult and un-
convincing, and such analysis tended to be repressed.
One consequence was that it became very difficult to theorize about compe-
tition as a dynamic process. The Schumpeterian notions of what competition was
about in technologically dynamic industries, which captured the attention of many
industrial organization economists in the early postwar era, had to be treated
outside the context of mainline microeconomic theory (for example, see the
treatment and references in Scherer, 1980). Another consequence was that when
the attention of economists again turned to economic growth, the apparently
natural way to formulate a growth theory was to build a simple dynamic into a
neoclassical formulation, preserving the assumptions that firms correctly maxi-
mized profits and that the economy as a whole was in continuing (moving)
equilibrium (Solow, 1956; 1957). This theoretical formulation was of course
sharply at odds with the arguments of Joseph Schumpeter that capitalist economic
growth had to be understood as a process involving disequilibrium in a fundamen-
tal way.
In recent years, evolutionary arguments have begun to come back into eco-
nomics, at least around the fringes of the field. This change is partly the result of
a growing awareness that standard neoclassical theory cannot deal adequately with
the disequilibrium dynamics involved in the kind of competition one observes in
industries like computers or pharmaceuticals or, more broadly, with the processes
of economic growth driven by technological change. These topics again have come
to the center of attention, and an evolutionary theory is a natural approach to
them. In some degree, the return of evolutionary arguments results from new
analytic tools that permit evolutionary theories to be determined with the rigor
economists have come to require.
In this review, we seek to suggest the appeal of an evolutionary approach to
Richard R. Nelson and Sidney G. Winter 25
As was noted by Koopmans (1957, p. 140), this statement leaves open the question
of why one would prefer a theory that conflicts with the “apparent immediate
determinant(s) of business behavior” if in fact it is possible to build a theory directly
upon what appear to be the actual determinants of business behavior, the condi-
tions for survival. But in practice, Friedman’s argument has served as an
26 Journal of Economic Perspectives
1998).1 Also, assuming constant entry raises the possibility of continuing entry of
inefficient firms, which could disrupt the tendency to neoclassical equilibrium.2
Moreover, assuming that entrants can display a wide range of high competencies is
very dubious if one believes, as evolutionary economists tend to, that the achieve-
ment of high competence depends on sustained learning from experience.
In short, if evolutionary processes are to lead to neoclassical results, the list of
conditions is demanding, the articulation of these conditions is often delicate and
the reassuring implications are narrow at best.
We do not, however, consider the analysis summarized above simply as an
effort to dispose of an error of overstatement. Instead, we follow the Koopmans
(1957) suggestion and accept Friedman’s (1953) defensive move as a valuable hint
at a positive research agenda. Mainstream neoclassical conclusions about the
virtues of market arrangements rest foursquare on the comprehensive rationality of
individual agents. Neoclassical economics discovers social virtue in human selfish-
ness, but not virtue that is robust against the human limitation of incompetence—
and the possible role of the market process in achieving that robustness is not
featured.3 However, if the conditions just stated do tend to hold, they form a major
piece of a persuasive account of how a market economy might be able to achieve
impressive results in spite of limitations on the rationality of individual agents.
Conversely, where the conditions do not hold, they might help to explain why the
market economy may perform poorly.
In the context of such an affirmative research program, the meanings of the
four conditions mutate significantly; they become topics for investigation, not
theoretical assumptions. With regard to variety, for example, the question becomes
whether enough variety is generated to accomplish the effective exploration of new
technological and organizational territories. The postulate of behavioral continuity
is a keystone of the evolutionary program because its general plausibility is sup-
ported by much organizational research. But the details matter a great deal; below
we return to this subject and its connection to learning. The extent to which profits
induce growth in a “more of the same” sense is a key empirical question from an
evolutionary point of view, as is the issue of path dependence. How often does it
happen that significant innovations arise before their time, are squelched by a
hostile environment and then are lost or reappear only with great delay? Thus, all
four of the conditions present significant issues for evolutionary analysis.
1
For a striking application of behavioral decision research to economics involving the “optimism bias,”
see the experimental work on entry decisions by Dosi and Lovallo (1997) and Camerer and Lovallo
(1999).
2
There is a delicate analytical issue here; see Winter (1971) for one resolution.
3
We take note here of two adjacent literatures. There is a significant theoretical and empirical literature
on industry and firm dynamics with heterogeneous firms (exemplified by Jovanovic, 1982; Hopenhayn,
1992; Ericson and Pakes, 1995; Pakes and Ericson, 1998). This work is not concerned with “robustness
against incompetence,” nor with evolution considered as the unfolding of a fundamentally unknown
future. By contrast, the evolutionary games literature is quite compatible with ours on the question of
rationality and foresight, but mainly does not share the substantive focus on firms and industries. See
Dosi and Winter (2002) for some comments on connections to the evolutionary games literature.
Richard R. Nelson and Sidney G. Winter 29
4
In our experience, few economists are comfortable with the suggestion that the workings of their own
academic departments or universities might illustrate typical characteristics of organizational decision
making; they prefer to think that the locally available data in their nonprofit employers are somehow
special or anomalous. Organizational research does not, on the whole, support them in that view.
30 Journal of Economic Perspectives
competent when the comparison is against the standards of the past or in contexts
where competition is weak. By contrast, strong and up-to-date rivals highlight the
“bounded rationality” of the focal organization. Thus, the evolutionary response to
the competence puzzle focuses on the role of learning and practice and specifically
on the degree of correspondence between the current challenge and the earlier
contexts in which experience trained the actors.
This approach treats organizational and individual competence in similar
terms; we treat organizational routine as the organizational analogue of individual
skill. When rich and relevant information is available to guide action, organizations
often find routinized ways of exploiting it. The ice cream shop does not, after all,
yield to its cognitive limitations and follow the simple rule of stocking only vanilla.
In ice cream shops and elsewhere, technical and organizational innovations have
supported remarkable increases in the product variety that is handled routinely. In
this sense, evolutionary economics explains how behavior can be complex and
effective by pointing out that it is routinized.5
The concept of routines has multiple virtues as a foundation for evolutionary
economics. As just noted, routines provide a focal point for a learning-based answer
to the competence puzzle.6 Most fundamentally, routines are the basis of the
characterization of behavioral continuity in our evolutionary theory: “routines as
genes” is the catch phrase. Nelson and Winter (1982, p. 134) write: “As a first
approximation, therefore, firms may be expected to behave in the future according
to the routines they have employed in the past.”7
Of course, routines persist for a variety of reasons, including an irrational
resistance to change. But there are two reasons that are rational in a broad sense
and also conceptually significant. The first relates to the problem of storing and
accessing knowledge. The common neoclassical economic assumption is that all
techniques along a production function are equally and costlessly accessible today,
regardless of whether or when they have been practiced. Realistically, however,
learning or relearning routines has costs, which rise as the behavior leaves the
domain of recent practice—and this supports the tendency to adhere to prevailing
routines. Second, since every organization is a coalition of sorts, routines almost
necessarily include ways of coping with the occasions for conflict within an orga-
nization, whether between managers and shareholders, or managers and workers,
or managers and managers. Departures from established routines provoke height-
5
This argument about routines is subtly different than the claim, which advocates of a more behavioral
approach to economics often make, that real actors follow “simple rules” rather than performing the
complex calculations imputed to them by economic theory. This idea contains much truth, but it relates
primarily to handling uncertainty about the future and other domains where rich short-term feedback
is not available. It is also true that a routine can be “simple” relative to an infeasibly large optimization
calculation, while being far too complex by practical standards to be called a “simple rule.”
6
When an organization’s “routines” include higher-order routines that govern learning itself, the
evolution of behavior at the level of the organization becomes a complex matter in which the structure
of the problems faced, the structure of the organization and the historical path of the system are all
intertwined.
7
For an extended discussion of the successive approximations, see Winter (1986).
Evolutionary Theorizing in Economics 31
ened anxieties and often involve heightened stakes; conflict therefore tends to be
more intense—a contrast often noted in the context of labor-management strug-
gles over organizing a union as compared to renewal of a union contract. Because
conflict tends to be costly to all participants, there is reason to avoid it by sticking
with established routines.
While a few business firms, and other formal organizations, are very long lived,
analysis of economic development almost always is concerned with much longer
time periods than the life of particular organizations and also has a much broader
institutional scope. Yet the competence puzzle is there, perhaps in even more
striking form, when the question is about the determinants of long-run economic
development. The heart of the economic development puzzle is how the enor-
mously powerful technologies, and effective modes of organization, that character-
ize advanced modern economies could have come about, given the cognitive limits
of individual men and women, and organizations. Actually, Mandeville (1705
[1924]) asked this question almost three hundred years ago as he reflected on
the mighty warships of his day, and his answer is in the spirit of modern eco-
nomic evolutionary theory: it was the work of many minds operating over many
generations.
The general account we have given of how individual skills, organizational
routines, advanced technologies and modern institutions come into being has
stressed trial-and-error cumulative learning, partly by individuals, partly by organi-
zations, partly by society as a whole. We do not deny the vital role played in the
progress of all these variables by the body of knowledge—in modern days often
scientific knowledge—that humankind has accumulated, that directs its problem
solving and makes those efforts powerful. But then one can ask the same question
about the origins of that powerful body of knowledge: how did humans of such
bounded rationality manage to do that? Again, the answer we evolutionary theorists
would give is that it evolved.
8
“Skill memory” is also sometimes known as “procedural memory” or “nondeclarative memory.” See
Squire (1987) for a discussion of the substantive distinctions and the relevant terminology. Skill memory
can also be usefully compared with what Polanyi (1964) discussed as “tacit knowledge.”
9
Empirical evidence on routines and related organizational knowledge issues is gradually accumulating;
it is quite diverse in type and source. Space does not permit a review of this literature. We mention here
some studies that substantially share our theoretical perspective: Helfat (1994), Usselman (1993),
Zander and Kogut (1995), Narduzzo, Rocco and Warglien (2000), Szulanski (2000); the latter two are
among several relevant studies presented in Dosi, Nelson and Winter (2000).
10
We say “perhaps” and “presumably” here because, so far as we are aware, the extent to which there
are underlying physiological mechanisms linking skill memory and other cognitive functions remains
unknown.
Richard R. Nelson and Sidney G. Winter 33
the impact of inherited strategies. They studied the processes that led Polaroid to
stumble in its attempted transition to digital imaging. Beginning in the early 1980s,
Polaroid’s management made digital imaging technologies a strategic priority,
shifted the composition of its technical personnel and invested substantially in
research and development. Polaroid developed superior sensor technology and
had a prototype digital camera by 1992. However, Polaroid didn’t get a digital
camera to market until 1996 and seems to have mishandled the marketing and
distribution. By the late 1990s, Polaroid had dropped the digital camera and
divested the digital imaging system it had developed for the medical diagnostics
market.
Tripsas and Gavetti (2000) document the key role played in this story by the
“razor/razor blades business model.” In the past, Polaroid had sold cameras
cheaply to promote the highly profitable film. The (simple) idea that you don’t
make money on the camera turned out to have a tighter grip on the company than
the (complex) chemical film technology. As a result, Polaroid passed up the
opportunity to hasten its digital camera to market while it sought alternatives
compatible with its traditional business model. This was not a matter of mindless,
automatic response, but of systematically flawed calculation.
The literatures of management and business history report numerous similar
episodes, though few so carefully documented as this one. For example, a number
of commentators have noted the paradoxical fact that IBM—the leading informa-
tion technology company in the world—was strategically blindsided in the early
1990s by the emerging implications of a by then familiar technology, the micro-
processor (for example, Fransman, 1994).
The idea that the habits of management thought channel strategic choices is
not a radical new discovery of the evolutionist camp. The challenge, however, is to
build a theoretical structure that is capable of making effective use of that insight,
exploiting this aspect of behavioral continuity for purposes of explanation and
prediction in specific cases. We believe that evolutionary theory provides an ac-
commodating framework for such an effort, though most of the actual work
remains to be done.
But in the capitalist reality as distinguished from its textbook picture, it is not
that kind of [price] competition which counts, but the competition from the
new commodity, the new technology . . . . This kind of competition is as much
34 Journal of Economic Perspectives
analysis has come to join the one just described. This body of research explores the
historical evolution of industries, often by looking at the co-evolution of technology
and industry structure, with a focus on whether a natural industry “life cycle”
exists.11 The industry life cycle hypothesis was originally put forth by James Utter-
back and William Abernathy (1975; see also Abernathy and Utterback, 1978) in a
history of the American automobile industry. Their underlying theoretical story
goes this way. When a technology is new, there is uncertainty both about how the
technology can improve and about what the customers really want. Both kinds of
uncertainty make it hard to say which paths of development would be successful in
meeting the needs better. Different inventors and firms lay their bets in different
ways. New innovators and firms keep entering the industry, trying new things, and
innovators and companies that have tried and failed go broke and leave. With time
and accumulated efforts, one pathway or a set of pathways turns out to be effective,
and the products of the new technology begin to attract a significant market. A
“dominant design” gradually emerges. Firms whose products exemplify that dom-
inant design do well, and firms that are producing something else either have to
switch over, which is not easy to do, or they fail. With product design more
stabilized, it becomes profitable for research and development to focus on process
innovation. More firms in the business tend to become increasingly skillful, and
potential entrants are increasingly at a visible disadvantage. Entry slows down, while
exit remains at high levels for a while. The number of firms in the industry
diminishes, sometimes sharply, even as output growth accelerates. Typically, a
relatively small number of large firms come to dominate the scene.
While this account of the industry life cycle is clearly not universally applicable,
the validity of its principal generalizations has been documented for a number of
industries.12 Recent work by Steven Klepper and various collaborators has mapped
the general phenomenon (Klepper and Graddy, 1990; Klepper, 1997), elaborated
the theoretical logic (Klepper, 1996) and demonstrated its relevance for tires
(Klepper and Simons, 2000a), television sets (Klepper and Simons, 2000b) and
other industries.13 The recent volume edited by Mowery and Nelson (1999) con-
tains a number of detailed industry histories and explores, among other matters,
the extent to which the industry life cycle seems to fit. It does in several of the
industries studied.
Recently, Klepper has focused on the backgrounds of the entrants in various
industries (Klepper and Sleeper, 2000), strongly confirming the role of various
forms of prior exposure to the knowledge base relevant to the industry (Winter,
11
One of the problems with this literature is that the level of analysis is sometimes unclear. Sometimes
the analysis seems to shift among an industry life cycle, a product life cycle or a technology life cycle. This
fuzziness may reflect, in part, the fact that similar mechanisms are operating at different levels and on
different time scales.
12
Lasers are one example of a technology that does not display the typical patterns, probably because
of the fragmentation of the market for applications.
13
While Klepper’s theoretical view is close to our own, his account of firm behavior in the short run is
more in terms of myopic profit maximization than of observed behavioral regularities.
36 Journal of Economic Perspectives
1984). Not all entrants bring such knowledge advantages with them, but those who
do not tend to be at a disadvantage.
This account of the industry life cycle provides a useful and important
perspective on the points about variety and path dependence raised earlier. Variety
tends to be at a maximum in the early stages of an industry’s history, when major
issues of technology and design remain unresolved. The move toward a dominant
design exemplifies economic natural selection at work— destroying variety. Indus-
try dynamics include self-reinforcing mechanisms that create path dependence,
making it impossible for the system to return to earlier branch points and “recon-
sider.” Thus, an important part of the evolutionary testing of firm behaviors by the
marketplace is compressed into the early design stages of industry evolution. In a
mature industry, the evolutionary process may not have much variety to work with.
Of course, the “life cycle” of an industry is not an inexorable process of aging.
Renewal may come on the winds of the “perennial gale of creative destruction” that
Schumpeter celebrated. If the leaders cannot be challenged on the ground of the
cumulative technology they have built, more fundamental challenges may arise to
upend them, coming from outside the industry. Such episodes provide illustrations
of the logic of our science-based case; developments exogenous to the focal
industry have endowed some entrants with new competitive weapons that the
incumbents do not possess.
The technology and management literatures have given a lot of attention to
struggles between new firms and incumbents. A number of relevant causal factors
have been identified and persuasively argued to be critical in particular cases.
Incumbents are said to be more at risk when innovative change affects the “archi-
tecture” of the system, as opposed to its “components” (Henderson and Clark,
1990). Paralleling our distinction between the “science-based” and “cumulative”
cases, it has been argued that incumbents are not likely to be threatened when new
technology is “competence enhancing”— drawing on the skills and capabilities
developed previously— but they are when it is “competence destroying” (Tushman
and Anderson, 1986). When incumbents control key specialized assets that are
complementary to the new technology, they may be able to make advantageous
deals to access the technology or, at least, to gain time to build their own capabil-
ities (Teece, 1986; Tripsas, 1997; Henderson, Orsenigo and Pisano, 1999). Incum-
bents who focus too narrowly on prevailing applications of a basic technology may
leave niches open in which entrants can extend the technology and ultimately
mount a broader threat (Christensen and Rosenbloom, 1995; Christensen and
Bower, 1996; Christensen, 1997).
All of these studies are compatible with and illustrative of the evolutionary
perspective. None display a logic in which foresight plays a key role; in some, the
weakness of foresight is a featured consideration. All take for granted strong
elements of continuity in firm behavior, so that a firm’s fate is determined in the
first approximation by how the environment rewards its heritage of routines, and
only in the second approximation do abilities to adapt and to change enter the
story.
Richard R. Nelson and Sidney G. Winter 37
The theory, the empirics and the reality of Schumpeterian competition have
all evolved over the years. In his earlier work, specifically, The Theory of Economic
Development, Schumpeter (1911 [1934]) emphasizes the role of individual entre-
preneurs and new firms. His later work Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy (Schum-
peter, 1950) says that innovation has been “routinized” and now comes from the
R&D laboratories of the large corporations. Schumpeter’s two views of the role of
entrants provided the basis for an extension of the science-based/cumulative
contrast into the notion that industries differ in their “technological regimes”—
broadly, the conditions affecting the availability and advance of relevant knowledge
(Winter, 1984). Several authors have employed this concept in trying to account
empirically for the way innovative entry varies in importance across industries (for
example, Malerba and Orsenigo, 1990; Breschi, Malerba and Orsenigo, 2000;
Marsili, 2001; Shane, 2001). In the quarter century after World War II, most readers
of Schumpeter, ourselves included, believed that the regime supporting the large
corporate R&D lab was the modern regime, while the individual entrepreneur with
a new firm was largely a thing of the past. The history of the last few decades clearly
indicates that that judgment was premature. Today, a number of industries are
experiencing rapid technological advance where entrepreneurial start-ups whose
innovations are based largely on the work of one or a few individuals play a
prominent role and offer significant competitive threats to larger firms. In many of
these cases, the technology tends to be science based.
The analysis of science-based regimes involves a number of interesting ques-
tions, including the linked issues of the vertical scope of entrants and the possible
recombination of capabilities through mergers and acquisition. The early history of
biotech—the quintessential “science-based” case, but also a quintessential “comple-
mentary assets” case—is now available as a vivid illustration of how these various
themes can play out. This case has attracted the sustained attention of a number of
authors, who analyze it from an evolutionary perspective (Orsenigo, 1995; Mc-
Kelvey, 1996; Henderson, Orsenigo and Pisano, 1999).
sense that actors are not assumed to have accurate foresight (even probabilisti-
cally). At one extreme, the actors simply have a set of routines that determine their
actions that they stick to through thick or thin. Over time, competition winnows out
many of the actors from the ones that survive having routines that cope best with
the environment. Other evolutionary models treat the actors as operating with a
particular set of routines “in the short run,” but as having mechanisms that enable
them to improve routines or to learn about significantly better ones as time elapses
and they gain experience. In any case, the actors are not modeled as having the
capability to “see through” the context in which they are imbedded with sufficient
clarity to be able to determine the best thing to be doing or to understand the
causal structure of their experience. Indeed, most of the economic evolutionary
models are sufficiently complicated so that the modeler or anyone else would have
great difficulty in deducing optimizing strategies for all the actors. It is a basic
premise of economic evolutionary theory that this state of affairs accurately reflects
the problem facing real-world economic actors.
Second, these models generally take the form of dynamic equations that
determine the time paths of firm characteristics and actions taken, as well as the con-
sequences of those actions. Many of them take the form of random walk (Markov)
processes, in high-dimensional state spaces, and often with some time-varying
parameters. Solution paths may include a steady state or a set of them. But the com-
mitment to the underlying behavioral assumptions—as appropriate to the problem—
does not depend on the achievement of a steady state. The modelers typically
sought to analyze behavior and phenomena under out-of-equilibrium conditions.
The models that have been developed fall roughly into two classes. Some are
designed to explore the time paths generated by particular model specifications
and the difference made by varying particular assumptions or parameter values.
Other models have been designed to explain, or to explore theories about, partic-
ular empirical phenomena.
Some examples of exploring model specifications are the evolutionary econ-
omists who have explored economic variants of R.A. Fisher’s “Fundamental Theo-
rem of Natural Selection,” to the effect that the rate of growth of average “fitness”
(profitability) in an industry or a firm is proportional at each point of time to the
share-weighted variance of profitability (Nelson and Winter, 1982; Metcalfe, 1998).
Others have considered the effects of cumulative learning by experience in an
evolutionary model (Silverberg, Dosi and Orsenigo, 1988; Chiaromonte and Dosi,
1993) or explored how the requirement that new technology needs to be embodied
in new capital affects the pattern of output growth (Silverberg and Lehnert, 1993).
Issues of path dependence and “lock-in” have been explored and modeled by
various authors, including Kwasnicki (1996) and Saviotti (1996), following in the
footsteps of Arthur (1989). While the particular aspects being studied are different,
in all of these models, the orientation is quite abstract, with the objective to
illuminate how a particular subprocess or aspect influences the course of an
economic evolutionary process.
An early example of an evolutionary model targeted a specific empirical
Richard R. Nelson and Sidney G. Winter 41
The view of firm behavior built into evolutionary economic theory fits well with
the view of firms contained in modern organization theory, especially the part that
shares our own debt to the “Carnegie school” (March and Simon, 1958; Cyert and
March, 1992). The emphasis on the accumulation of firm-specific capabilities has
appealed to business historians as a useful way to frame detailed historical analysis
of the competitive process (Chandler, 1992; Usselman, 1993; Raff, 2000). Similarly,
much research and writing in the field of business strategy feature distinctive
capabilities as the basis of competitive advantage and “dynamic capabilities” as the
key to lasting success in a rapidly changing economy (Teece, Pisano and Shuen,
1997). Indeed, the citations to our 1982 book suggest that the evolutionary ap-
proach has had broad appeal to a wide range of scholars from a variety of different
disciplines working on business organization and strategy.
We noted earlier that scholars in several different disciplines have come to the
proposition that technological advance needs to be understood as an evolutionary
process. Recently, John Ziman (2000) published a book of essays by scholars from
several different disciplines on Technological Innovation as an Evolutionary Process.
The concept of “innovation systems” also has broad cross-disciplinary appeal.
More generally, evolutionary economics offers great advantages in areas where
interdisciplinary dialogue is needed for progress. As stressed above, this is primarily
because the evolutionary view of firm and organizational behavior, which stresses
the bounds on rationality, is broadly consistent with prevailing views of firm
behavior outside economics. Evolutionary economics therefore has open frontiers,
lives with other disciplines in what is recognizably the same intellectual world and
has much to offer and to gain from trade.
y We are indebted to Brad De Long, Giovanni Dosi, Timothy Taylor and Michael Waldman
for extremely helpful comments and editorial suggestion; more than the usual absolution is
granted. We also acknowledge research support from the Reginald H. Jones Center of the
Wharton School.
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