NAME : MANSI .S.

MINGWAL
CLASS : FYBBA
ROLL NO. : 38
SUBJECT : DEMOGRAPHY

1 ASSIGNMENT NO. – 1
Explain the method of assessing population growth in brief
also giving the latest data of all Indian states.

-Demography-
Method of
assessing
population growth
1. INTRODUCTION
After centuries of very slow and uneven growth, the world
population reached one billion in 1800. The modern
expansion of human numbers started then, rising at a slow
but more steady pace over the next 150 years to 2.5 billion
in 1950. During the second half of the twentieth century,
however, growth rates accelerated to historically
unprecedented levels. As a result, world population more
than doubled to 6.5 billion in 2005 (United Nations 1962,
1973, 2007). This population expansion is expected to
continue for several more decades before peaking near 10
billion later in the twenty-first century. Around 2070, the
world’s population will be 10 times larger than in 1800.

The recent period of very rapid demographic change in

most countries around the world is characteristic of the
central phases of a secular process called the demographic
transition. Over the course of this transition, declines in
birth rates followed by declines in death rates bring about
an era of rapid population growth. This transition usually
accompanies the development process that transforms an
agricultural society into an industrial one. Before the
transition’s onset, population growth (which equals the
difference between the birth and death rate in the
absence of migration) is near zero as high death rates
more or less offset the high birth rates typical of agrarian
societies before the industrial revolution. Population
 growth is again near zero after the completion of the
transition as birth and death rates both reach low levels in
the most developed societies.

 Methods of population estimation and projection

This section covers:

 Methods of population estimation and projections

 Population projections
 Population estimates

 Description
Whilst the Census is crucial for resource allocation and
planning, because it is carried out only every ten years, other
methods are required for planning in the intervening years.
Population estimates use census as a baseline, add births,
subtract deaths and make allowances for migration. They can
be used for national and local planning. Population estimates
are produced annually. In the UK, the Office for National
Statistics (ONS) estimates are also used as the basis for
capitation-based funding of local authorities and PCTs. Under-
estimation can therefore have severe effects on local services.
International migration is now the main driver of population
change in the UK. ONS estimates a net inflow of 318,000 in
2014.
Migration affects different local communities in different ways
and local responses need to be developed. It can affect the
makeup of the local population, the local economy, the nature
of the jobs that are filled, the speed of turnover and housing
occupancy. If families come with children, there are impacts on
the education and child health systems such as immunisation
programmers. Overall, migration cuts across many policy and
service areas and so is an important public health issue; for
example: employment, housing, education, child health, mental
health, access to services.
 Strengths
Crucial for local planning. Wider use locally for housing,
education and other planning.
 Weaknesses
Questionable accuracy with regard to internal migration.
Data on migration are difficult to obtain, particularly at local
level. Some migrant workers may only stay a few months and it
is hard to measure change. National estimates in some places
were shown to be out when the 2011 Census figures were
published.
 Population projections
Population projections aim to estimate characteristics and sizes
of populations in the future. They make assumptions on:
Mortality (not too difficult to estimate for today’s 25 – 45 year
olds)
Fertility (much harder to estimate; often a range of high, low
and medium fertility levels are used in the projections which
are then published as a series)
Migration (easy to misjudge as has happened in recent years)
In the UK, the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD)
produces ‘full’ population projections by age and sex for the
United Kingdom and constituent countries every two years[2].
Special projections can be undertaken in the intervening years,
such as estimates by marital status.

ONS uses the national figures to produce sub-national

population projections. Data are available, 2 or 3 times in each
decade, on the GAD website by age and sex for Government
Office Regions, counties, county districts, unitary authorities,
and London boroughs[3].
Household projections are undertaken by the Department for
Communities and Local Government (CLG).
For London, the Greater London Authority (GLA) creates
population projections, which are updated on a yearly basis,
both at population and at household levels. In addition to the
frequency, GLA projections can differ from ONS versions
because they adjust estimates at borough level when ONS mid-
year estimates have been found to be not robust.
 Population of India
Imagine a world without people. Impossible to think isn’t it?
Without people, there would be no society, economy or a
culture. The current population of India is at 132.42 crores (as
of 2016) and is the second highest in the world. Also, our
population is what contributes to our socio-economic structure
and the diverse cultural scenario.

 Population Size and Distribution

The current population of India contributes to 17% of the global
population. Also, all these people are unevenly distributed
across 3.28 million square kilometers of our geographical area.

According to the 2001 Census, Uttar Pradesh is the highest

populated state in India with a total number of 166 million
people. While on the other hand, states like Sikkim and
Lakshadweep have the lowest population of 0.5 million in
Sikkim and only 60000 people in the island state of
Lakshadweep.
Furthermore, about half of the country’s population is
concentrated around five major states- Maharashtra, Uttar
Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh. Though
Rajasthan is the largest state in size, its population contributes
to only 5.5% of the total population of India.
This uneven distribution of the population is due to the varying
population density of the country. Population density = the
total number of people per unit of area. Also, population
density is largely dependent on the geographical location and
geological factors. Therefore, states like Assam, Himachal
Pradesh, and other hilly terrains have a lower density of
population. While the northern plains and coastal areas like
Kerala, West Bengal, and Maharashtra have very high
population density.

Browse more Topics under Population

Population in India
Learn more about the Size and Location of India.

 Population Growth and Processes of Population Change

Population growth is determined by the annual growth rate,
which is calculated in percent per annum. Like, if there is an
increase of two people per 100 people of the population, then
the annual growth rate would be 2%.
(Source: Wikipedia)
Another important aspect of population study is the change in
population. This is largely influenced by three main factors like
birth, death, and migration of people in a given year.
  Birth rate: The number of children born per 1000 people in
a year
 Death rate: The number of people died per 1000 people in
a year.
What is most noteworthy here that the birth rate in India is and
has always been higher than the death rate, which is a major
reason behind population growth.

The third and one of the most important factors of population

change is migration. Migration can be internal (between states)
and international (between countries). While internal migration
does not lead to population change, it does affect the
population density in the migrated areas.

 Characteristics of the Population of India

1. Age Composition
One of the most important characteristics of the population of
India, the age composition determines the country’s s social
and economic structure. The total population is broadly divided
into three age groups-

A. Children- below 15 years

B. Working-age- 15- 59 years
C. Aged (Senior)- 59 years and above
 2. Adolescent population
This is one of the most important and influential elements of
the age composition aspect of the population. Adolescents are
people between the age groups of 10-19 years and in our
country. Also, about one-fifth of the population comprise
adolescent individuals. They are especially relevant to the
future growth and are the most significant part of the
population of India.

3. Sex Ratio
The sex ratio of population is determined by the number of
females for every 1000 males. This helps in understanding the
equality of males and females in the society, which
consequently gives an idea of the nation’s culture. India’s sex
ratio has always been on the lower side, until recently. States
like Kerala and Union Territory of Pondicherry have higher sex
ratio than the major states.

4. Literacy Rate
This is yet another important characteristics of the population
because the literacy rate of a country determines its economic
structure and growth. Literacy, according to the 2001 Census, is
the ability of a person of 7 years and above to read and write in
any language. The census states the literacy rate of the
population of India is almost 74.04% (2016).
 5. Occupational Structure
The number of people in a population involved in different
economic activities helps assess the growth of the country’s
economy. The occupational structure is the distribution of the
population across different occupations. This is an important
element of the population of India. Also, our occupational
structure has three broad categories-

a. Primary occupation- agriculture, fishing, mining, animal

husbandry, forestry etc.
b. Secondary occupation- manufacturing, building,
construction work etc.
c. Tertiary occupation- communication, transportation,
administration etc.

 DRIVERS OF POPULATION GROWTH: FERTILITY AND

MORTALITY
The world’s population increases every year because the global
birth rate exceeds the death rate. For example, in 2000–2005
population size increased at a rate of 1.17 per cent per year,
which equals the difference between a birth rate of 2.03 per
cent and a death rate of 0.86 per cent. At the country level,
population growth is also affected by migration, but for the
regional aggregates of population used in this analysis,
migration is usually a minor factor, and it will therefore not be
discussed in detail.

The annual birth and death rates of populations are in turn

primarily determined by levels of fertility and mortality
experienced by individuals. The most widely used fertility
indicator is the total fertility rate (TFR), which equals the
number of births a woman would have by the end of her
reproductive years if she experienced the age-specific fertility
rates prevailing in a given year. Mortality is often measured by
the life expectancy (LE) at birth, which equals the average
number of years a newborn would live if subjected to age-
specific mortality rates observed in a given year.
(a) Fertility
The UN’s past estimates and future projections of fertility levels
by region for the period 1950–2050 are presented in figure 2. In
the 1950s, the TFR in the South was high and virtually stable at
around six births per woman on average. This high level of
fertility reflects a near absence of birth control, a condition that
has prevailed for centuries before the middle of the twentieth
century. In the late 1960s, a rapid decline in fertility started
nearly simultaneously in Asia and Latin America. In contrast,
Africa has experienced only limited reproductive change. As a
result of these divergent past trends, fertility levels in 2000–
2005 differed widely among regions from as high as 5 births per
woman (bpw) in Africa, to 2.5 bpw in Asia and Latin America.
Average fertility in the North was already low in the early 1950s
and has since declined to 2.0 bpw in Northern America and to
1.4 bpw in Europe. Figure 2.
The decline in the average fertility in the South from 6 to 3 bpw
over the past half century has been very rapid by historical
standards. This reproductive revolution is mainly due to two
factors. First, desired family size of parents has declined as the
cost of children rose and child survival increased. Second,
government intervention played a key role. In China this took
the form of a coercive and unpopular one-child policy, but most
other countries implemented voluntary family planning

programmes. The aim of these programmes is to provide

information about and access to contraceptives at subsidized
prices so that women who want to limit their childbearing can
more readily do so.

UN projections for the South assume that the TFR will

eventually reach and then fall slightly below the so-called
‘replacement’ level in all regions. Replacement fertility is just
above 2 bpw and it represents the level at which each
generation just replaces the previous one, thus leading to zero
population growth (in the absence of mortality change and
migration). Below-replacement fertility produces, in the long
run, population decline. As is evident from figure 2, the TFRs in
Asia and Latin America are expected to reach the replacement
level around 2020. Africa is assumed to be on a much slower
trajectory towards replacement fertility because of its lower
level of socio-economic development. High fertility therefore
remains a key cause of future population growth in this region.
In contrast, the already low fertility of the North is expected to
remain below replacement and is no longer driving population
growth.
(b) Mortality and life expectancy
Mortality levels have also changed rapidly over the past several
decades (figure 3). The South experienced exceptional
improvements in LE from an average of 41 years in 1950–1955
to 64 years in 2000–2005. By the early 2000, Latin America
reached mortality levels similar to those prevailing in the North
in the 1970s, and Asia was just a few years behind. Africa
experienced the highest mortality and improvements in LE
stalled in the 1990s due to the AIDS epidemic. As a result,
Africa’s LE, at 52 years in 2000–2005, was still substantially
below that of Asia (68) and Latin America (72). As expected,
Europe and Northern America already achieved relatively low
levels of mortality by 1950, but they have nevertheless seen
significant further improvements since then. Europe’s LE (74) is
now lower than North America’s (78) because of a rise in
mortality in Eastern Europe after the break-up of the Soviet
Union.
Projections of future Les by the UN assume continued
improvements over time in all regions. The North is expected to
reach 82 years in 2050 despite the increasing difficulty in
achieving increments as countries reach ever higher levels of
LE. Asia and Latin America are expected to continue to close the
gap with the North, and Africa will continue to lag, in part
because the continent remains affected by the AIDS epidemic.
It should be noted that the assumptions made by the UN about
future trends in fertility and mortality are not based on a firm
theoretical basis. Instead, the UN relies on empirical regularities
in past trends in countries that have completed their
transitions, mostly in the North, where fertility declined to
approximately the replacement level, and increases in LE
became smaller over time. This is a plausible approach that
unfortunately leaves room for potential inaccuracies in
projection results