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Population System Control - 1988 - Mathematical and Computer Modelling
Population System Control - 1988 - Mathematical and Computer Modelling
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Perg‘lmonPressplc
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Jian Song+ Deyong Kong+ Jingyuon Yu
+State Science and Technology Commission of China
Abstract. In this paper the importance and urgency for population control
in China is exulained. The successful results gained in Dooulation control
are introduced'briefly. A brief introduction o‘i main propositions and
applications, such as mathematical modelling, projection, stability,
observability, controllability, target population, optimal control and the
theory of distributed parameter population systems are given here. The
paper concludes with that the study of population system control which
gives us the inspiration to develop a new discipline, Systematology, to
tackle the important issues which confront us in modern society.
II
China is the first country in the world to continuous model or a discrete model. The
carry out family planning and population deterministic continuous model of the
control, and in this she has achieved population system is described by partial
remarkable success. The total fertility rate* differential equations with boundary feedback
dropped from 7.5 in 1963 to 2.4 in 1982, and being considered as the distributed parameter
the natural growth rate from 33.3% in 1963 to system. The discrete model is described by
14.08% in 1986. The world population would difference equations being considered as a
have reached 5 billion two years ago and would bilinear system. these models can be
be more than 5.13 billion now if China had not described by formulas (1) and (2) as follows:
controlled its growth over the past decade.
China's successful family planning programme The continuous equations of the population
has proved that human beings can control process are
themselves by correct population policy and
planning.
m + ape = -p(a,t)p(a,t)
How to carry out the family planning programme
aa at
and control population growth are important
and interesting issues for scientists to p(a,O) = p,(a)
study. These issues are related to
a2
demography, economics, sociology, behavioral
science, psychology, medical science, and P(O,t) = b(t) = B(t) s k(a,t) h(a,t)
moreover, to modern natural science. In order a1
to work out and implement population policies p(a,t) da (1)
and plans, a theory of population system
control is needed. It is a theory of Here, a refers to age, and t stands for
quantitative analysis. time, p(a,t) is population density function,
p(a,t) is the death rate function, 4(t) is
From the viewpoint of cybernetics, the whole the birth rate function, p(t) is the total
population of the world is a system, which is fertility rate, k(a,t) is the women's sex
named population system. Many factors ratio function, h(a,t) is the women's
determine population changes in a society. fertility pattern.
Social institutions, environment, standard of
living, level of education, wars, natural The discrete equations of the population
disasters, migration, and so on can all affect system are
population development. But only fertility,
mortality, and migration are the direct causes x(t+l) = H(t)x(t) + P(t)B(t)x(t) + G(t)
of population changes. It is through these x(0) = (x1(O), x,(O), . x,(O))
three that all factors affecting
sociodemographic changes are manifested.
dhhere
In the early 1970's, several scholars such as
D.R. Falkenburg(l973), G.J. Olsder and
Strijobs (1975), Langhaar (1973), and H.
Kwakernack (1977), began applying the methods
and viewpoints of modern control theory to the
study of population problems, and we have
gained a good deal of enlightenment from their
work. Currently, a lot of natural scientists
in China are involved in this field and
achieved much.
The models mentioned above can be used either change would occur in 200 years. This shows
in the study of an invariant population system that population projection is very important
or a variant population system. The classical
solution and general solution of a variant The processing of population parameters has a
population system have been given by Chinese great influence on population projection. The
scientists Song and Chen (1982), providing a death rate p(a,t), women's fertility patterns
theoritical basis for the study of a variant h(a,t), women's sex ratio functions k(a,t),
population system. The classical Lotka's migration patterns and the initial population
equations can be deduced from continuous age structure, are population parameteres.
models. This illustrates that Lotka's model Some good demographic methods to smooth and
is only a special case of continuous model extrapolate these parameters exist already,
established above. Any demographic conclusion see Coale (1973). Parameter identification
obtained from Lotka's integral equations can technology have been applied to process these
be obtained from the control model, but the parameters.
converse of this statement is not true.
In recent years, by means of the theory of
These two mathematical models have been population projection, some authors have made
checked against China's population statistics. some projections about professional workers,
The results showed that, the short term such as teachers and students, science and
accuracy is about 0.1% technology professionals, and so on. Others
have made .some projections concerning
biocommunity development.
The continuous model is suitable for
theoretical analysis, and the discrete model
3. Stability of The Population System
is suitable for calculation and simulation by
The population system is a dynamic system with
a computer.
positive feedback. There exists a stability
problem in the sense defined by Liapunov. For
Population conditions differ widely in
any invariant population system, there exists
different areas in a country as large as
a critical fertility rate @,r. It can be
China. A large scale system model of the
population can be established on the basis of proved by the theories of linear operator
the above mentioned models. Population spectrum and semigroup. It can be defined by
statistics, projections and controls in the following formulas:
different levels can be realized by means of For continuous population model
computers and communication networks. This is
population system engineering, see Song and Yu
(1984). When the population process is
treated as a stochastic process, a population k(a)h(=)=
-s; p(E)dtda
I-1
model of stochastic control can be set up.
There are two different types of stochastic For discrete population model
models, continuous and discrete, see Song and
Yu (1984). The evolution equations of
a2 -1
expectation, variance, and related functions
p,,= 1 kihi(l-+,o)(l-~o)...(l-~i_l)
are included in these models. Moreover, the 1
i=a
evolution equation of expertation is 1
consistent with that of deterministic model.
The results for population projection are Here, p. is the death rate of infant. It can
consistent, too. An accurate estimation for
be proved that P,, is the first order
the projection of expectation can be given by
stochastic model. Establishing the model and approximation ot fl,,, According to this
making a parameter estimation of the calculation and using the data of 1978
population system can be achieved by means of population census, China's critical fertility
the identification theory. rate is p,, = 2.16.
According to the projection of Song, eta1 (3). If B(t)=@,,, the population system is
(1980)s if we wish to change the current 1 stable but not asymptotically stable. The
billion population to 720 million that it was asymptotical state of the total population is
in 1964, it would take 75 years, even if every constant. This is the population process of
woman in the whole country in her fertile zero growth.
years would only bear one child from now on.
If every couple would have two children, this It can be seen from the above fact that, if a
country or an area is faced with the necessity
of decreasing its population, as in China, the and ecological equilibrium, the appropriate
total fertility rate @ must be controlled so target population for China is 700 million.
as to be less than the critical fertility rate
p,,. Otherwise, it is impossible. On the These studies are only the beginning and much
remains to be done.
contrary, if a population increase is desired,
it is necessary that the total fertility rate
6. Optimal control of the Population System
must be greater than the critical fertility
700 million is China's target population in
rate. If a constant population is to be But China's population already
the iong run.
maintained, the total fertility rate must be
exceeds 1 billion. How can we change from the
equal to the critical fertility rate.
present 1 billion to 700 million and stabilize
at that level, this is a question of
In the past 30 years, China's actual fertility The only way to
population transition.
rate has always been greater than the critical
realize this transition is through control of
fertility rate, so the population has
the total fertility rate 0. But how is this
increased steadily. But with the
regulation law determined? Applying the
population control programme of the past theory of optimal control to solve the
decade, the rate of increase has showed down,
transition problem of the population system is
For instance, according to the calculation of . .
a propositron that has not been solved before
the statistics of 1981, ,0(1981)=2.63, it is
in classical demography.
still bigger than the critical fertility rate.
So, controlling China's population is still an
arduous task. The optimal control of a population system can
be stated as follows: given a target
The stability of the variant population system population NV, find the optimal total
has been studied recently. A concept of an
upper and lower critical fertility rate is fertility rate p*(t), t E[O,T], P*(t)GJ
introduced. The stability of a large scale Under the control of ,9*(t), let the
population system has been studied on the population system change from the initial
basis of urban and rural subsystems. The state x0 to the ideal state XT(t). In the
stability affected by the migration between
process of control, the population state
urban and rural areas is discussed.
X(t)EQ(t) and the control /9*(t) will
4. Observability and Controllability of the minimize the performance index J. Then, the
Population System
B*(t) is called the optimal control of the
All indices in the population system model can
population system. Here, Q(t) is the whole
be considered as observations. If the
collection of population states that satisfy
population state in certain year can be
the following constraints:
decided solely by the observations obtained
from statistics, then the system is said to be
(1). The peak value of the total population
observable. It can be proved that, if the N (t) should not exceed a given value No.
total population N(t) is considered as an max
observation, the system is observable (Hu,
eta1 (1983)). (2). In the process of transition toward the
ideal population, the social dependency ratio
The controllability of the population system p(t) should not be larger than some prescribed
is defined as follows: value pg.
On the space of population states RE, for any (3). Similarly, attention must also be paid
to ageing. To prevent the population from
two population state vectors
and XX if
0 T' becoming too old in the process of control,
within a limited period of time (such as n the ageing index w(t) should be excessively
years), population control P(t), t=l, 2,...n, larger than a given value wo.
within its permissible constrains can transfer
the population system from X0 to XT, we say
U is a set of admissible controls, p(t) can
that the population system is completely only take values within U. l%+)<BclG1.
controllable on the space of population states
U=[P,~B,l
Ri. It has been proved that for discrete
model, if B(t) is taken values for [fl,, &I, The selection of performance index J is not
then the necessary and sufficient conditions _
unique. natural selection is that
T-l
of controllability of population system is
J - ,;, ( x(t)-x*(t) )T ( X(t)-X*(t) )
that BL< Bcl< B,. Here, 8,, is the critical
fertility rate of discrete system.
The existence of optimal control and its
5. China's Target Population conditions having to be satisfied has been
The short-term target of China's population is proved, by Song (1980). The calculation shows
no more than 1.2 billion at the end of this that about 100 years is needed from now to
century. What will be our population realize the 700 million target population.
development in the next century? It must be
planned from now on, because of the large time 7. Accurate Calculations of Population
constant of the population system, and in Indices
order to leave a rational population structure Population indices, such as, birth rate, death
and a good environment for our descendants. rate, life expectancy, length between two
How many people can China's 9.6 million square female generations, women's pure reproduction
kilometers of land and natural resources rate and so on reflect quantitatively the
support? This is a question of China's target social characters of a population development
population. On the basis of the quantitative prOCSSS. These indices can be obtained from
studies of natural resources, the level of the statistics of census and sampling, or from
socioeconomic development, living standards, formulas. Each index of a certain year can be
obtained, only if the population state of this
Proc. 6th Int. ConJ. on Mathematical Modelling 15
year is known. From the viewpoint of analysis has ulayed an important role in
mathematics, any item of population indices is social science studies. It is an inexorable
a functional (linear or nonlinear) of the trend that precise scientific methods help to
population state. On the basis of this idea, develop modern science. This kind of
the accurate formulas for the population scientific method has permitted various
indices, such as average life expectancy, fields, such as economics, military science,
length between two female generations and management science and psychology, etc. This
women's pure reproduction rate of invariant trend not only shows the great progress of
population system are given. These results scientific thought, but also shows that the
are extended to the variant population system. development of science now makes possible the
Meanwhile, it has been proved that the integration of the natural and social
formulas in demography are only the first sciences. Recently, professor Qian Xuesen
order approximation of these accurate advocated a new discipline, Systematology,
formulas. Moreover, some new population which is a science to study the general law of
indices are defined, for instance, the time system structures, and their evolution,
constant of population system etc, interested coordination and control on the basis of those
readers please see Song and Yu (1984). theories, such as the Dissipative Structure
Theory, Synergetics, Catastrophe theory, etc.
8. Theory of Distributed Parameter Population It will surely be a positive step, if the
system natural and social sciences integrate to
In recent years, on the basis of above work, tackle the important issues facing our modern
the dynamic process of the population system society.
has been studied further, and the theory of
distributed parameter population system has
been shown to be rather primitive. Starting REFERENCE
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