Lecture 1 Understanding Complexity
Lecture 1 Understanding Complexity
Complexity
CCST9048 Simplifying Complexity
University of Hong Kong
Dr. Tim Wotherspoon
Overview
• In this lecture we will try to introduce the idea of complexity and give
some examples of complex systems and look at some common
features.
• In order to do so, we will first look at the idea of reductionism which
is a key part of the modern approach to science.
• The study of complex systems arises from understanding places
where reductionism fails to give the desired results.
• We can think of systems where reductionism works well as the anti-
complex systems. (the opposite of complex is simple but I want to
avoid that word here).
A Very Brief
History of Science
Aristotle (384-322 BCE)
Aristotle
“The phenomena of generation of the vole are most astonishing, both for the
number of the young and the rapidity of the recurrence in the births… Their
disappearance is unaccountable: in a few days not a mouse will be there to be seen.
And yet in the time before these few days men fail to keep down their numbers by
smoking them out and by unearthing them, or by regularly hunting them and
turning in swine upon them; for pigs turn up the vole-galleries by rooting with their
snouts. Foxes also hunt them, and in particular the ferocious ferrets, but they all
together make no way against the prolific qualities of the voles and the rapidity of
their breeding. When they are superabundant, nothing succeeds in thinning them
down except the rain; but after the heavy rains they disappear rapidly.”
http://xkcd.com/435/
Methodological Reductionism
Reductionism is the most natural
thing in the world to grasp. It’s
simply the belief that ”a whole can
be understood completely if you
understand its parts, and the
nature of their ‘sum.’” No one in
her left brain could reject
reductionism.
Methodological Reductionism
http://xkcd.com/793/
Methodological Reductionism
• Most students will come across • Assumptions:
the so-called Ideal Gas Law • Point particles
• 𝑃𝑉 = 𝑛𝑅𝑇 = 𝑁𝑘𝑇 • Elastic conditions with the
boundary
• This works well in many cases! • No interactions between particles
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/plectere
Definition
Mitchell 2011
Defining Complexity
• The above is only one possible definition for complexity, but others
may fit better to certain complex systems.
• Some authors distinguish between complex systems and complex adaptive
systems.
• A hurricane is not adaptive, but it fits other properties of a complex system
• An alternative definition:
• A system that exhibits nontrivial emergent and self-organizing behaviors.
Defining Complexity
Vitali S, Glattfelder JB, Battiston S (2011) The Network of Global Corporate Control. PLoS ONE 6(10): e25995.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0025995
http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0025995
Economies
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/facebook-maps-111-billion-
friendships-to-show-off-social-networks-global-reach-8839116.html
Social networks and the World Wide Web
http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2014/03/what-happens-when-you-throw-four-sharks-into-a-giant-school-of-fish/
Adaptation
“So far, data suggest wolves are contributing to decreased numbers of elk calves
surviving to adulthood and decreased survival of adult elk. Wolves may also be
affecting where and how elk use the habitat. Some of these effects were predictable
but were based on research in relatively simple systems of one to two predator and
prey species. Such is not the case in Yellowstone, where four other large predators
(black bears, grizzly bears, coyotes, and cougars) prey on elk—and people hunt the
elk outside the park. Thus, interactions of wolves with elk and other ungulates have
created a new degree of complexity that makes it difficult to project long-term
population trends.” (https://www.nps.gov/yell/learn/nature/wolf-restoration.htm)
Simplifying Complexity
Complexity and Reductionism: Two opposing
ideas.
• Reductionism
• To understand a complicated whole, understand its constituent parts.
• If those parts are difficult to understand, break them into smaller parts.
• Works well in systems where interactions between parts are few or are
unimportant.
• Complexity
• Reductionism fails at times because understanding the parts may do little for
understanding the whole.
• In these cases, we need to discover the rules of the interactions.
• Luckily, we will often see that the macroscopic behaviors and/or structures
might arise from very simple rules of interaction.
Simplifying Complexity