Lorentz-Spreen2020 Democracy Online
Lorentz-Spreen2020 Democracy Online
Lorentz-Spreen2020 Democracy Online
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0889-7
Public opinion is shaped in significant part by online content, spread via social media and curated algorithmically. The current
online ecosystem has been designed predominantly to capture user attention rather than to promote deliberate cognition and
autonomous choice; information overload, finely tuned personalization and distorted social cues, in turn, pave the way for
manipulation and the spread of false information. How can transparency and autonomy be promoted instead, thus fostering the
positive potential of the web? Effective web governance informed by behavioural research is critically needed to empower indi-
viduals online. We identify technologically available yet largely untapped cues that can be harnessed to indicate the epistemic
quality of online content, the factors underlying algorithmic decisions and the degree of consensus in online debates. We then
map out two classes of behavioural interventions—nudging and boosting— that enlist these cues to redesign online environ-
ments for informed and autonomous choice.
T
o the extent that a “wealth of information creates a poverty problems—from climate change to the coronavirus pandemic—
of attention” (p. 41)1, people have never been as cognitively require coordinated collective solutions, making a democratically
impoverished as they are today. Major web platforms such as interconnected world crucial30.
Google and Facebook serve as hubs, distributors and curators2; their
algorithms are indispensable for navigating the vast digital land- Why behavioural sciences are crucial for shaping the
scape and for enabling bottom-up participation in the production online ecosystem
and distribution of information. Technology companies exploit this More than any traditional media, online media permit and encour-
all-important role in pursuit of the most precious resource in the age active behaviours31 such as information search, interaction and
online marketplace: human attention. Employing algorithms that choice. These behaviours are highly contingent on environmental
learn people’s behavioural patterns3–6, such companies target their and social structures and cues32. Even seemingly minor aspects of
users with advertisements and design users’ information and choice the design of digital environments can shape individual actions and
environments7. The relationship between platforms and people is scale up to notable changes in collective behaviours. For instance,
profoundly asymmetric: platforms have deep knowledge of users’ curtailing the number of times a message can be forwarded on
behaviour, whereas users know little about how their data is col- WhatsApp (thereby slowing large cascades of messages) may have
lected, how it is exploited for commercial or political purposes, been a successful response to the spread of misinformation in Brazil
or how it and the data of others are used to shape their online and India33.
experience. To a substantial degree, social media and search engines have
These asymmetries in Big Tech’s business model have created an taken on a role as intermediary gatekeepers between readers and
opaque information ecology that undermines not only user auton- publishers. Today, more than half (55%) of global internet users
omy but also the transparent exchange on which democratic societ- turn to either social media or search engines to access news articles2.
ies are built8,9. Several problematic social phenomena pervade the One implication of this seismic shift is that a small number of global
internet, such as the spread of false information10–14—which includes corporations and Silicon Valley CEOs have significant responsibil-
disinformation (intentionally fabricated falsehoods) and misin- ity for curating the general population’s information34 and, by impli-
formation (falsehoods created without intent, for example, poorly cation, for interpreting discussions of major policy questions and
researched content or biased reporting)—or attitudinal and emo- protecting civic freedoms. Facebook’s recent decision to declare
tional polarization15,16 (for example, polarization of elites17, partisan politicians’ ads off-limits to their third-party fact checkers illustrates
sorting18 and polarization with respect to controversial topics19,20). how corporate decisions can affect citizens’ information ecology
Some disinformation and misinformation involve public health and and the interpretation of fundamental rights, such as freedom of
safety; some of it undermines processes of self-governance. speech. The current situation, in which political content and news
We argue that the behavioural sciences should play a key role diets are curated by opaque and largely unaccountable third par-
in informing and designing systematic responses to such threats. ties, is considered unacceptable by a majority of the public35,36, who
The role of behavioural science is not only to advance active sci- continue to be concerned about their ability to discern online what
entific debates on the causes and reach of false information21–25 is true and what is false2 and who rate accuracy as a very important
or on whether mass polarization is increasing26–28; it is also to attribute for social media sharing37.
find new ways to promote the Internet’s potential to bolster rather How can citizens and democratic governments be empow-
than undermine democratic societies29. Solutions to many global ered38 to create an ecosystem that “values and promotes truth”
Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany. 2School of Psychological Science and Cabot Institute,
1
University of Bristol, Bristol, UK. 3School of Psychological Science, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia. 4Harvard Law School, Cambridge, MA,
USA. ✉e-mail: [email protected]
(p. 1096)14? The answers must be informed by independent behav- cannot reliably distinguish between facts and opinions, nor can
ioural research, which can then form the basis both for improved they detect irony, humour or sarcasm56. They also have difficulty
self-regulation by the relevant companies and for government reg- differentiating between extremist content and counter-extremist
ulation39,40. Regulators in particular face three serious problems in messages57, because both types of messages tend to be tagged with
the online domain that underscore the importance of enlisting the similar keywords. A more general shortcoming of current endog-
behavioural sciences. The first problem is that online platforms can enous cues of epistemic quality is that their evaluation requires
leverage their proprietary knowledge of user behaviour to defang background knowledge of the issue in question, which often
regulations. An example comes from most of the current consent makes them non-transparent and potentially prone to abuse for
forms under the European Union (EU) General Data Protection censorship purposes.
Regulation: instead of obtaining genuinely informed consent, the dia- By contrast, exogenous cues are easier to harness as indicators
logue boxes influence people’s decision-making through self-serving of epistemic quality. They refer to the context of information rather
forms of choice architecture (for example, consent is assumed from than the content, are relatively easy to quantify and can be inter-
pre-ticked boxes or inactivity)41,42. This example highlights the need preted intuitively. A famous example of the use of exogenous cues is
for industry-independent behavioural research to ensure transpar- Google’s PageRank algorithm, which takes centrality as a key indi-
ency for the user and to avoid opportunistic responses by those cator of quality. Well-connected websites appear higher up in search
who are regulated. The second problem is that the speed and adapt- results, irrespective of their content. Exogenous cues can indicate
ability of technology and its users exceed that of regulation directly how well a piece of information is embedded in existing knowledge
targeting online content. If uninformed by behavioural science, or the public discourse.
any regulation that focuses only on the symptoms and not on the From here on we focus on exogenous cues and how they can be
actual human–platform interaction could be quickly circumvented. enlisted by nudging46 and boosting47. Let us emphasize that a single
The third problem is the risk of censorship inherent in regulations measure will not reach everyone in a heterogeneous population
that target content; behavioural sciences can reduce that risk as well. with diverse motives and behaviours. We therefore propose a range
Rather than deleting or flagging posts based on judgements about of measures that differ in their scope and in the level of user engage-
their content, we focus here on how to redesign digital environ- ment required. Nudging interventions shape behaviour primarily
ments so as to provide a better sense of context and to encourage through the design of choice architectures and typically require little
and empower people to make critical decisions for themselves43–45. active user engagement. Boosting interventions, in contrast, focus
Our aim is to enlist two streams of research that illustrate the on creating and promoting cognitive and motivational compe-
promise of behavioural sciences. The first examines the infor- tences, either by directly targeting competences as external tools or
mational cues that are available online31 and asks which can help indirectly by enlisting the choice environment. They require some
users gauge the epistemic quality of content or the trustworthiness level of user engagement and motivation. Both nudging and boost-
of the social context from which it originated. The second stream ing have been shown to be effective in various domains, including
concerns the use of meaningful and predictive cues in behavioural health58,59 and finances60. Recent empirical results from research
interventions. Interventions can take the form of nudging46, which on people’s ability to detect false news indicate that informational
alters the environment or choice architecture so as to draw users’ literacy can also be boosted61. Initial results on the effectiveness of
attention to these cues, or boosting47, which teaches users to search simple nudging interventions that remind people to think about
for them on their own, thereby helping them become more resistant accuracy before sharing content37 also suggest that such interven-
to false information and manipulation, especially but not only in tions can be effective in the online domain62. While empirical tests
the long run. and evidence are urgently needed, the first step is to outline the con-
ceptual space of possible interventions and make specific proposals.
Digital cues and behavioural interventions for Table 1 examines three online contexts: articles from newspapers
human-centred online environments or blogs, algorithmic curation systems that automatically suggest
The online world has the potential to provide digital cues that can products or information (for example, search engines or algorith-
help people assess the epistemic quality of content48–50—the poten- mic curation of news feeds), and social media that display infor-
tial of self-contained units of information (here we focus on online mation about the behaviour of others (for example, shared posts or
articles and social media posts) to contribute to true beliefs, knowl- social reactions such as comments or ‘likes’). Each is associated with
edge and understanding—and the public’s attitudes to societal a unique set of challenges, cues and potential interventions. Next,
issues51,52. We classify those cues as endogenous or exogenous53. we review the challenges and cues in Table 1 and detail some inter-
Endogenous cues refer to the content itself, like the plot or ventions in the subsequent sections.
the actors and their relations. Modern search engines use natu-
ral language-processing tools that analyse content54. Such tools Online articles: information overload and epistemic cues
have considerable virtues and promise, but current results rarely The capacity to transfer information online continues to increase
afford nuanced interpretations55. For example, these methods exponentially (average annual growth rate: 28%)63. Content can
a b
Opaque +
manipulative
Past
Recent
Co
lle
cti Direct
ve
d Indirect
rre Transparent +
Infe non-manipulative 4 vs. 2 Perceived
In 5 vs. 8 Global
div
idu d
vide
al Pro
Fig. 1 | Challenges in automatically curated environments and on social media platforms. a, Dimensions of knowledge that platforms can acquire with
information technology, which make their recommendations continuously opaque and manipulative. b, Perceived group sizes versus the actual global
sizes, from the viewpoint of one user (head icon in the centre) in a homophilic social network.
be distributed more rapidly and reaches an audience faster64. This up-to-date and engaging, algorithms can trade recency for impor-
increasing pace has consequences. In 2013, a hashtag on Twitter tance79 and, by optimizing on click rates, trade ‘clickbait’ for quality.
remained in the top 50 most popular hashtags worldwide for an Similarly, aggregated previous user selections make targeted
average of 17.5 h; by 2016, a hashtag’s time in the limelight had commercial nudging—and even manipulation—possible80,81. For
dropped to 11.9 h. The same declining half-life has been observed example, given just 300 Facebook likes from one person, a regres-
for Google queries and movie ticket sales65. This acceleration, sion model can better predict that person’s personality traits than
arguably driven by the finite limits of attention available for the friends and family82. There are at least three dimensions of knowl-
ever-increasing quantity of topics and content66 alongside an appar- edge where platforms can far exceed individual human capabilities
ent thirst for novelty, has significant but underappreciated psy- (Fig. 1a): data that reaches further back in time (for example, years
chological consequences. Information overload makes it harder of location history on Google Maps), information about behav-
for people to make good decisions about what to look at, spend iour on a collective rather than an individual level (for example,
time on, believe and share67,68. For instance, longer-term offline millions of Amazon customers with similar interests can be used
decisions such as choosing a newspaper subscription (which then to recommend further products to an individual) and knowledge
constrains one’s information diet) have evolved into a multitude of that is inferred from existing data using machine-learning methods
online microdecisions about which individual articles to read from (for example, food preferences inferred from movement patterns
a scattered array of numerous sources. The more sources crowd the between restaurants).
market, the less attention can be allocated to each piece of content Moving further along these dimensions, it becomes more diffi-
and the more difficult it becomes to assess the trustworthiness of cult for a user to comprehend the wealth and predictive potential
each—even more so given the demise and erosion of classic indica- of this knowledge. Automatic customization of online environ-
tors of quality69 (for example, name recognition, reputation, print ments that is based on this knowledge can therefore be opaque and
quality, price). For this reason, new cues for epistemic quality that manipulative (Fig. 1a). Recent surveys in the USA and Germany
are readily accessible even under information overload are neces- found that a majority of respondents consider such data-driven
sary. Exogenous cues can highlight the epistemic quality of individ- personalization of political content (61%), social media feeds (57%)
ual articles, in particular by showing how an article is embedded in and news diets (51%) unacceptable, whereas they are much more
the existing corpus of knowledge and public discourse. These cues accepting of it when it pertains to commercial content35,36. To rebal-
include, for instance, a newspaper article’s sources and citation net- ance the relationship between algorithmic and human decision
work (i.e., sources that cite the article or are cited by it), references making and to allow for heterogeneous preferences across differ-
to established concepts and topical empirical evidence, and even the ent domains, a two-step process is required. First, steps should be
objectivity of the language. taken toward the design and implementation of more transparent
algorithms. They should offer cues that clearly represent the data
Algorithmic curation: asymmetry of knowledge and types and the weighting that led to a system’s suggestions as well as
transparency offer information about the target audience. Second, users should
To help users navigate the overabundance of information, search be able to adapt these factors to their personal preferences in order
engines automatically order results70,71, and recommender systems72 to regain autonomy.
guide users to content they are likely to prefer73. But this conve-
nience exacts a price. Because user satisfaction is not necessarily in Social media: network effects and social cues
line with the goals of algorithms—to maximize user engagement More than two thirds of all internet users (around 3 billion people)
and screen time74—algorithmic curation often deprives users of actively use social media83. These platforms offer information about
autonomy. For instance, feedback loops are created that can arti- the behaviour of others (for example, likes and emoticons)84 and new
ficially reinforce preferences75–78, and recommender systems can opportunities for interaction (for example, follower relationships
eliminate context in order to avoid overburdening users. To stay and comment sections). However, these signals and interactions
Score: 8(recency)+2(likes)+7(refs.)+2(friends) = 19
Recent news, you need to read this! Total likes
Monica Smith @MonicaSmith - 13h
Today is a beautiful day to go for a walk, who will join?
This article cites two sources: Friends Number of references cited
Score: 6(recency)+2(likes)+0(refs.)+9(friends) = 17
https://www.website.com/section/news/2019/article_1
https://www.othernews/recent/jun/title_2 Super-sports @sportsbrand - Sep 9 Friends’ engagement
Follow your dream and reach new goals with our products.
Ad
First posted 12/05/2018 Sponsored
Add more criteria: +
Posted 874 times
Promoted elsewhere by 14 accounts John @JoeyYourFriend - Aug 21
What a great weekend I had, awesome time!
Friends
Score: 1(recency)+5(likes)+0(refs.)+9(friends) = 15
seen by 125,000 people
1,657 comments Breaking News Now @BNN_breakingnews - 14h
Shared 125 times News
Southern coast is hit by 5.4 magnitude earthquake, read
more: website.com/article/new
456 likes
Score: 7(recency)+0(likes)+4(refs.)+0(friends) = 11
Fig. 2 | Nudging interventions that modify online environments. a, Examples of exogenous cues and how they could appear alongside a social media post.
b, Example of a transparently organized news feed on social media. Types of content are clearly distinguished, sorting criteria and their values are shown
with every post, and users can adjust weightings.
a b
⨯
Are hyperlinks to
Unreliable external references
Yesterday
Yesterday Yesterday provided?
Wednesday 2h, 3h ago 2h, 3h ago
Yes No
Depth
⨯
Do these links lead to
relevant articles from Unreliable
reputable sources?
3h ago 2h ago 2h ago
No Yes
You Yes No
✓ ⨯
Reliable Unreliable
Breadth
Multiple Reliable
reposts article
Fig. 3 | Illustrations of boosting interventions as they could appear within an online environment or as external tools. a, Visualization of a sharing
cascade. Alongside metrics, like the depth or the breadth of a cascades, a pop-up window on social media can provide a simple visualization of a sharing
cascade that shows who (if the profile is public) and when others have shared content before it reached the user. b, A fast-and-frugal decision tree as an
example of a boosting intervention. A pop-up or an external tool can show a fast-and-frugal decision tree alongside an online article that helps a reader
check criteria to evaluate the article’s reliability, where the criteria were adapted from professional fact checkers and primarily point to checking external
information90.
are often one-dimensional, represent only a user’s immediate online an individual’s neighbourhood leads people wrongly to believe it
neighbourhood and do not distinguish between different types of reflects the actual majority opinion; Fig. 1b). When people associate
connections85. These limitations can have drastic effects, such as with like-minded others from a globally dispersed online commu-
dramatically changing a user’s perception of group sizes86,87 and nity, their self-selected social surroundings (known as a homo-
giving rise to false-consensus effects (i.e., the majority opinion in philic social network) and the low visibility of the global state of the
network88,89 can create the illusion of broad support90 and reinforce alongside additional information about which of the above cues
opinions or even make them more extreme91,92. For instance, even if are missing or have critical values.
only a tiny fraction (for example, one in a million) of the more than Another type of nudge targets how content is arranged in brows-
two billion Facebook users believe that the Earth is flat, they could ers. The way a social media news feed sorts content is crucial in shap-
still form an online community of thousands, thereby creating a ing how much attention is devoted to particular posts. Indeed, news
shield of like-minded people against corrective efforts93–96. feeds have become one of the most sophisticated algorithmically
Although large social media platforms routinely aggregate driven choice architectures of online platforms7,108. Transparent sort-
information that would foster a realistic assessment of societal ing algorithms for news feeds (such as the algorithm used by Reddit)
attitudes, they currently do not provide a well-calibrated impres- that show the factors that determine how posts are sorted can help
sion of the degree of public consensus97. Instead, they show reac- people understand why they see certain content; at the very least this
tions from others as asymmetrically positive—there typically is nudging intervention would make the design of the feed’s architec-
no ‘dislike’ button—or biased toward narrow groups or highly ture more transparent. Relatedly, platforms that clearly differentiate
active users98 to maximize user engagement. This need not be the between types of content (for example, ads, news, or posts by friends)
case. The interactive nature of social media could be harnessed to can make news feeds more transparent and clearer (Fig. 2b).
promote diverse democratic dialogue and foster collective intel-
ligence. To achieve this goal, social media needs to offer more Boosting interventions to foster user competences
meaningful, higher-dimensional cues that carry information Boosting seeks to empower people in the longer term by helping
about the broader state of the network rather than just the user’s them build the competences they need to navigate situations auton-
direct neighbourhood, which can mitigate biased perceptions omously (for a conceptual map of boosting interventions online,
caused by the network structure99. For instance, social media plat- see also ref. 109). These interventions can be integrated directly into
forms could provide a transparent crowd-sourced voting system100 the environment itself or be available in an app or browser add-on.
or display informative metrics about the behaviour and reactions Unlike some nudging interventions, boosting interventions will
of others (for example, including passive behaviour, like the total ideally remain effective even when they are no longer present in
number of people who scrolled over a post), which might counter the environment, because they have become routinized and have
false-consensus effects. We note that some platforms have taken instilled a lasting competence in the user.
steps in the directions we suggest. The competence of acting as one’s own choice architect, or
self-nudging, can be boosted110. For instance, when users can cus-
Nudging interventions to shape online environments tomize how their news feed is designed and sorted (Fig. 2b), they
Nudging interventions can alter choice architectures to promote can become their own choice architects and regain some informa-
the epistemic quality of information and its spread. One type of tional autonomy. For instance, users could be enabled or encour-
nudge, educative nudging, integrates epistemic cues into the choice aged to design information ecologies for themselves that are tailored
environment primarily to inform behaviour (as opposed to actively toward high epistemic quality, making sources of low epistemic
steering it). For instance, highlighting when content stems from few quality less accessible. Such boosting interventions would require
or anonymous sources (as used by Wikipedia) can remind people to changes to the online environment (for example, transparent sort-
scrutinize content more thoroughly101,102 and simultaneously create ing algorithms or clear layouts; see previous section and Fig. 2b) and
an incentive structure for content producers to meet the required the provision of epistemic cues.
criteria. Such outlets can be made more transparent, for example Another competence that could be boosted to help users deal
by disclosing the identity of their confirmed owners. Similarly, more expertly with information they encounter online is the ability
pages that are run by state-controlled media might be labelled as to make inferences about the reliability of information based on the
such103. Going a step further, adding prominent hyperlinks to vetted social context from which it originates111. The structure and details of
reference sources for important concepts in a text could encourage the entire cascade of individuals who have previously shared an arti-
a reader to gain context by perusing multiple sources—a strategy cle on social media has been shown to serve as proxies for epistemic
used by professional fact checkers104. quality112. More specifically, the sharing cascade contains metrics
Nudges can also communicate additional information about such as the depth and breadth of dissemination by others, with deep
what others are doing, thereby invoking the steering power of and narrow cascades indicating extreme or niche topics and breadth
descriptive social norms105: For instance, contextualizing the num- indicating widely discussed issues113. A boosting intervention could
ber of likes by expressing them against the absolute frequency of provide this information (Fig. 3a) to display the full history of a post,
total readers (for example, ‘4,287 of 1.5 million readers liked this including the original source, the friends and public users who dis-
article’) might counteract false-consensus effects that a number seminated it, and the timing of the process (showing, for example, if
presented without context (‘4,287 people liked this article’) may the information is old news that has been repeatedly and artificially
otherwise engender. Transparent numerical formats have already amplified). Cascade statistics teaches concepts that may take some
been shown to improve statistical literacy in the medical domain106. practice to read and interpret, and one may need to experience a
Similarly, displaying the total number of readers and their average number of cascades to learn to recognize informative patterns.
reading time in relation to the potential total readership could help Yet another competence required for distinguishing between
users evaluate the content’s epistemic quality: if only a tiny portion sources of high and low quality is the ability to read laterally104.
of the potential readership has actually read an article, whereas the Lateral reading is a skill developed by professional fact checkers
majority spent just a few seconds on it, it might be clickbait. The that entails looking for information on sites other than the informa-
presentation of many other cues, including ones that reach into the tion source in order to evaluate its credibility (for example, ‘who is
history of a piece of content, could be used to promote epistemic behind this website?’ and ‘what is the evidence for its claims?’) rather
value on social media. Figure 2a shows a nudging intervention that than evaluating a website’s credibility by using the information pro-
integrates several exogenous cues into a social media news feed. vided there. This competence can be boosted with simple decision
Similarly, users could be discouraged from sharing low-quality aids such as fast-and-frugal decision trees114,115. Employed in a wide
information without resorting to censorship by introducing range of areas (for example, medicine, finance, law, management),
‘sludge’ or ‘friction’—for instance, by making the act of sharing fast-and-frugal decision trees can guide the user to scrutinize rel-
slightly more effortful107. In this case, sharing low-quality content evant cues. For example, users can respond to prompts in a pop-up
may require a further mouse click in a pop-up warning message, window (for example, ‘are references provided?’), with each answer