Korean Experience
Korean Experience
Observers of the Korean economy in the late 1950s did not expect it to
become one of the world's most dynamic. Quite the contrary, it was considered
something of a basket case. The economy had been sustained by large inflows
of foreign assistance, with annual inflows exceeding two-thirds of both imports
and investment. Moreover, its growth had been erratic, and the trend was
clearly downward. Because of its apparent inability to generate adequate levels
of exports and savings, the economy was expected to remain in a dependent
status over the foreseeable future. Policy makers behaved in ways that were
consistent with this view and helped to reinforce it. Their overriding concerns,
apart from controlling inflation, were to solicit foreign aid and to manage the
flow of imports. With respect to foreign trade, these concerns prompted
policies of substantial currency overvaluation, high tariff rates, and quantitative
import restrictions, policies that discouraged exports and encouraged import
substitution.
2
Mason et al. (1980) provide the most comprehensive review of Korea's economic development
through the mid-1970s. There is no comparable reference covering the last 15 years, though
Amsden (1989) and Corbo and Suh (forthcoming) provide notably insightful accounts of industrial
and macroeconomic development, respectively, over the period.
Larry E. Westphal 43
Since the early 1960s, Korean industrial policy has had two proximate
objectives: encouraging exports and promoting infant industries. Exports from
well-established industries have been encouraged using policies that are largely
neutral. Here and below, "neutral" refers to the absence of differential effects
on the allocation of resources among activities relative to the putative circum-
stances of perfectly free trade. Non-neutral policies have focused on promoting
infant industries. Insofar as government policies have affected economic out-
comes, Korea's outstanding development performance stems from the coordi-
nated use of both kinds of policy. Thus they are first described separately and
then considered jointly.
3
Luedde-Neurath (1986) provides the most detailed description of the protectionist policies that
remained in place after the reforms. However, his interpretive analysis is frequently overstated or
misguided. In turn, this paper's emphasis on export growth in the context of protectionist
measures should not be taken to imply that Korea has practiced openness only on the export side
of its balance of trade. In fact, Korea's pursuit of its dynamic comparative advantage has entailed
tremendous openness to imports of raw materials, intermediate inputs, and capital goods. Imports
have grown almost as rapidly as exports, so that Korea's balance of trade surplus is a relatively
recent phenomenon.
Industrial Policy in an Export-Propelled Economy: South Korea 45
content provisions were instituted for all major investment projects. Working in
a complementary direction, the government has sometimes nominated a lim-
ited number of medium scale firms for cultivation as suppliers of particular
inputs to designated final product manufacturers. Such intervention has been
focused on the machinery industries.
Private agents have not been exclusively relied upon to implement key
undertakings in Korea's industrial evolution. The first producers of fertilizer,
petrochemicals, and refined petroleum products, for instance, were public
enterprises. So was the first integrated steel mill, which is generally considered
to be one of the most efficient mills in the world. Decisions to use public
enterprises to launch new industries have been made pragmatically, on a
case-by-case basis, and appear to have been reached on several grounds,
including the absence of private parties willing to undertake the venture; the
desire to exercise direct control over the start-up and operation of an industry
with multiple linkages to other industries; and the expectation that a public
agent could achieve a far more favorable outcome in negotiations with foreign
suppliers of capital and technology. Like their private counterparts, pioneering
public enterprises have been expected to achieve international competitiveness
quickly. Moreover, like all public enterprises in the manufacturing sector, they
have been constrained to operate as market agents. They have been managed
as autonomous profit-seeking entities and have contributed materially to gov-
ernment revenues.
More generally, the share of public enterprises in Korea's nonagricultural
output has been comparatively high, similar to that in India. Many public
enterprises—mining and manufacturing firms as well as utilities—have been
established for a variety of reasons unrelated to the creation of new industries
(Jones, 1975). Some of them came into being as a transitional phase in
government actions to regenerate moribund firms. In a number of these cases,
some involving quite large firms (a producer of diesel engines, for example),
bankruptcy has led to public sector ownership as a consequence of government
debt-repayment guarantees. Typically, the firms have been quickly restruc-
tured and then sold to private interests, so the set of such enterprises has
undergone continual change.
Table 1
Effective Incentive Rates for Manufacturing Industries in 1968
(in percent)
the central tendencies of Korean industrial policy since the reforms in the early
1960s. I do not, for example, find any fundamental differences—relative to the
stylized facts being portrayed here—between them and the estimates for 1978
given in Nam (1981).
The estimates shown in Table 1 are weighted averages (using value added
at world prices) derived from a disaggregation of the Korean manufacturing
sector into 150 industries. With two exceptions, they incorporate all of the
incentive policies operative in 1968, including currency overvaluation. The
exceptions—advance deposits on imports and special import privileges linked
to the penetration of new export markets—are known from other information
to have had relatively small effects. In the study from which these estimates
come, industries were classified as follows using 1968 data: "export," more than
10 percent of output was exported; "import competing," more than 10 percent
of domestic supply was imported; "export and import competing," both export
and import shares exceeded 10 percent; "non-import competing," neither
share exceeded 10 percent. Table 2 indicates the division of manufacturing
production among these industries in 1968. Industries in which Korea had a
well-established comparative advantage in 1968 are included among the export
and non-import competing industries. Industries that were infants as of 1968
are found primarily among industries that are either import competing or
export and import competing—industries which were being promoted with
varying levels of intensity.
In Table 1, the neutrality of Korean export incentives for well-established
industries is evident in the fact that the average effective incentive rate on
exports from export industries is only 0.8 percent. In turn, the impact of
selective export subsidies can be seen in the average effective incentive rate,
12.4 percent, for exports from import-competing industries. Average effective
incentive rates for exports from other industries are negative, but only moder-
ately so; in these industries, export incentives failed, on average, to offset the
impact of the policy regime on the prices of nontradeable inputs. Also impor-
Larry E. Westphal 51
Table 2
Percentage Shares in Manufacturing Value Added at World Prices in 1968
tant, but not shown in the table, is the fact that effective incentive rates on
exports for individual industries are very narrowly dispersed around the
overall average, particularly when compared with the dispersion of effective
incentive rates of non-export sales (Westphal and Kim, 1982, table 8.10).
Relative to free trade, then, export incentives are indeed largely neutral, except
among import-competing industries. However, the policy regime that is re-
flected in Table 1 can be characterized as having a pro-export bias insofar as
average effective incentive rates on exports exceed those on non-export sales
for well-established (export and non-import competing) industries.
The effects of selective intervention to foster new industries are apparent in
the average effective incentive rates on non-export sales. Well-established
industries have large negative rates owing primarily to import protection
granted to other industries, which in turn have high positive rates. Protection
of other industries has discriminated against established industries by increas-
ing their intermediate and capital input costs in producing for non-export sale.
Moreover, because of competition (and government price controls in some
cases) on the domestic market, established industries have not benefitted from
the import protection which they have formally enjoyed. In fact, on average,
tariff rates on competing imports in 1968 were no less for export and non-
import competing industries than for industries of the other two types. (The
weighted average, using protected sales valued at world prices, of tariff rates
across all manufacturing industries, was 68 percent.) But prices on the domestic
market were generally a good deal lower than world prices plus applicable
tariffs. Domestic prices of products produced by export and non-import com-
peting industries were on average considerably less than 10 percent above
world prices, while domestic prices of products produced by other industries
were on average more than 30 percent higher than world prices (Westphal and
Kim, 1982, pp. 220–8, 231).
Two additional important central tendencies of Korean industrial policy
are also represented in the tables. As can be inferred from the negative average
52 Journal of Economic Perspectives
significant margin for the operation of market forces not directly constrained
by government controls. Nonetheless, credit rationing has been associated with
sizable differentials between market-clearing interest rates on non-bank funds
and nonpreferential rates on bank credit.4
Government controls over the flow of funds to established industries do
not appear to have been selectively exercised. That is, controls have been
administered on something approximating a first-come, first-served basis using
market criteria. Thus, their impact on well-established industries has been the
result of the limit imposed on the supply of funds available to them relative to
their demand for funds on market clearing terms. Demand has undoubtedly
exceeded supply, more so in some periods than others, but the extent of the
discrepancy seems generally to have been rather small. Established industries
have typically not suffered low rates of capacity utilization, and there are good
reasons for believing that the marginal efficiency of investment would generally
have fallen rapidly in response to additional capacity creation. Here it is very
important to recall that selective intervention to promote infant industries has
been narrowly focused and to recognize that the Korean government has relied
very heavily on foreign capital inflows to finance the economy's development,
so much so that it is one of the biggest debtors in the Third World.
To summarize, the Korean government's industrial policies have been used
within the framework of a consistent strategy of industrialization, one that
treats specifically targeted industries very differently than it deals with other,
internationally competitive ones. The objective of the strategy has been to build
(or sometimes to rebuild) a comparative advantage in the former industries
while exploiting the comparative advantage of the latter. Non-neutral policies
have not been the sole instruments for implementing the strategy. They have
been used selectively in an environment where prices in actively functioning
segments of the capital market and in labor markets generally have appropri-
ately reflected relative factor scarcities. Market forces acting in response to
policies that have been largely neutral, but that have clearly favored exports (in
part due to import protection given to promoted industries), have been used to
allocate resources in internationally competitive industries. Thus, the Korean
government has not attempted either to make or directly to constrain most
4
Bank interest rates on nonpreferential loans were between 25 and 30 percent (per annum) in the
late 1960s, when the interest rate on time deposits was 30 percent. These interest rates have been
reduced over time, reaching the low teens in the mid-1980s. (Real rates fluctuated between positive
and negative values as the inflation rate varied.) Interest rates in the unregulated "curb" market
have also fallen, but appear to have generally been more than twice the highest nonpreferential
bank lending rate. However, the importance of the curb market as a source of non-bank funds has
declined greatly over time, as other non-bank forms of intermediation have emerged and rapidly
grown in significance. Interest rates to borrowers from these very loosely regulated sources have
typically been much lower than curb market interest rates. The preferential bank interest rate on
working capital loans to exporters was 6 percent in the late 1960s. The spread between it and the
highest nonpreferential rate was gradually reduced during the 1970s. Interest rate preferences for
exporters were abolished in 1982.
54 Journal of Economic Perspectives
Lessons
Korea's industrial performance owes much to the government's reliance on
free market institutions to provide for flexibility in resource allocation. It has
resulted in many highly profitable ventures (socially as well as privately) that
were either not foreseen or not actively promoted by the government. Included
among the successful outcomes are industries that were established by private
initiative and became quite significant as generators of income, employment,
and foreign exchange. For example, wig exports rose from nil in 1960 to about
12 percent of commodity exports in 1970. Moreover, some highly successful,
once-targeted industries—overseas construction, for example—were identified
by the government on the basis of their initial and profitable inception by
private agents.
But it is equally the case that Korea's industrial performance owes a great
deal to the government's promotional policies toward exports and to its initia-
tives in targeting industries for development. If nothing else, the policies
toward exports have created an atmosphere—rare in the Third World—in
which businessmen could be certain that the economic system would respond
to and adequately reward their efforts aimed at expanding and upgrading
exports. In turn, selective intervention has driven the fast-paced evolution of
Korea's industrial structure by fostering vertical integration at the national
level, promoting greater diversification of end-product mix, and the like. The
most visible result, but by no means the only one, has been the rapid develop-
Industrial Policy in an Export-Propelled Economy: South Korea 57
ment of Korea's heavy industry, which now accounts for more than half of its
exports.
One way to sort out the important characteristics of Korean success with
selective intervention is to look at what happened in the late 1970s, when the
success was least. Various mistakes, largely ones of implementation, were made
in developing the heavy engineering industries which produce such things as
plant equipment and construction vehicles, like steel furnaces and earth movers.
These mistakes were a primary cause of the dramatic deterioration in Korea's
industrial performance at the end of the 1970s. Moreover, their effects lingered
after the rapid overall recovery. Differences in how intervention was managed
in these and other industries suggest several principles for the conduct of
selective intervention to promote infant industries. The same principles can
also be found in cross-country comparative evidence.
First, the overriding objective of the intervention must be the achievement
of dynamic efficiency in the sense of attaining international competitiveness
within an explicit medium-term time horizon. In the case of the heavy engi-
neering industries, there was an additional goal of achieving a considerable
degree of self-sufficiency in military procurement (not an inherently unreason-
able objective in the geopolitical context of the time).
Second, information relevant to judging potential comparative advantage
must be sought continuously from every possible source. In the case of the
heavy engineering industries, the disparate views of many knowledgeable
individuals were not sought, nor was there adequate consultation with private
industry concerning the formulation of plans for their development.
Third, detailed industry-specific strategy should be reformulated as needed
to reflect the accumulation of pertinent information and experience acquired
during the course of implementation. Plans were rigidly pursued for lengthy
periods in the late 1970s without regard to the accumulating evidence of
problems that were being encountered.
Fourth, only a small number of industries should be targeted at any one
time, so as not to spread scarce and specialized technical and entrepreneurial
talent too thinly. The number of industries that was targeted in the mid-to-late
1970s was too large to permit the achievement of a critical mass of human
resources in most of them.
Fifth, the government's intervention should not overly constrain the ex-
ploitation of comparative advantage in well-established industries. These indus-
tries were excessively crowded out of markets for labor and capital in the late
1970s by the large demands of the targeted infant industries; the result was a
sharp decline in export growth.
Of course, no set of guidelines will rule out all mistakes. Given the
uncertainties associated with developing new industries, mistakes are to be
expected even under a highly effective strategy of selective intervention. But
what counts is the total (economic, or social) return on the entire portfolio of
government-directed investments.
58 Journal of Economic Perspectives
• I am grateful to the editors as well as to Pranab Bardhan, John Caskey, Steve Golub,
Mieko Nishimizu, Fred Pryor, Bernie Saffran, Mike Scherer, Robert Wade and especially
Howard Pack for valuable comments made in the course of my writing this paper.
Larry E. Westphal 59
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