What Are Episodic Pivots and How To Find Them: Home Members Only MM Stockbee 50 Videos
What Are Episodic Pivots and How To Find Them: Home Members Only MM Stockbee 50 Videos
22, 20:49 Stockbee: What are Episodic Pivots and how to find them
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AZC 62 67 0 88 Buyout
nine other deciles. This is the most researched topic in financial field. Every year at least 50 new papers are
published on PEAD and is persistence.
Earnings are the most important criteria affecting stock prices both in short term as well as in the long term. Investors want to invest in
companies that are growing their earnings or are likely to grow their earnings in future. Wall Street is obsessed with earnings and
rightfully so. So any earnings related news has a potential to move stocks in either direction. Studies after studies have shown that
trading strategies based on post earnings announcement drift (PEAD) has consistently generated abnormal returns.
So when a company announces earnings and it is "surprisingly" good or bad it leads to a rally lasting 2 to 3 months. Earnings EP are
easiest to understand and act on. The market reaction tells you whether this earnings was "surprise" and "significant". The stock will
New Versio
immediately go up post such announcement and the move will be supported by high volume.
is Ready
Pre-Market Bu
You can create a scan captures such breakout. It should basically looks for a out-sized price move on high volume post earnings. One Historical Scan T
of the simple way to create a scan like this in Telechart is:
((C - C1) >= 5 AND V > 10000 AND C >= 62.50 AND V > V1) OR ((( 100 * (C - C1) / C1) >= 8 AND V > 3000 Color Bars by Cond
AND (100 * V / AVGV100) >= 300) AND C > 1)
So a stock appearing in such a scan has a volume surge and the price surge. We then investigate what caused this price and volume
surge or what was "the surprise" that caused such a big move and what is "the nature" of such surprise. Is this information likely to lead
to big move.
Market reaction tells you a lot about the likelihood of the future prospect of that stock. If volume is very high, you can assume move has Momentum burst is structural
legs. You will see that most earnings breakouts which go on to make really big (like say 100% plus kind of) moves in next 1 to 2 months
What to look for in a momentum
post an earnings, will have huge volume surge, typically of 10 times or more compared to average volume. In many cases the volume
on earnings day might be the highest volume in the history of the stock or multi year high volume. Swing trading using momentum
Stocks with no analyst coverage are typically smaller companies or companies which are out of favor. On such stocks a significant Right belief lead to profit
earnings acceleration compared to last year same quarter as well as quarter over quarter is what to look for. I like to look for companies
15 minute exercise to become b
which had earnings acceleration of 100% plus in such cases.
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12.02.22, 20:49 Stockbee: What are Episodic Pivots and how to find them
But once in a while such companies manage to significantly surprise the market and that results in a earnings breakout. Earnings How to organise your trading ef
breakout on companies with significant analyst coverage do not do as well as the first kinds. Genuine analyst surprises are rare and in
many cases company pre announce and manage earnings expectations to avoid significant surprise. Established companies also often
How to find good anticipation se
time secondaries and other capital raising events to time with such surprises and so often you find the EP on such stocks tend to have a How to get market monitor num
pullback.
Earnings Breakouts and low float Few good earnings trades can c
This is an ideal combination. In such situation you can have really explosive move. Float below 25 million is ideal for this. The best life
moves happen on float below 10 million. Earnings breakouts on companies with 100 million plus float tend to have pullbacks. Earnings
Swing Trading Process Flow
breakout on stock with 500 million plus float is something which I not really very enthusiastic about unless they are trading near their
historic lows or are in single digits. Hunt for good trading template
Earnings Other
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12.02.22, 20:49 Stockbee: What are Episodic Pivots and how to find them
If you are serious about your trading and want to build an enduring edge the Stockbee Member site might help you. How to develop trading expertis
Members tell me they have tried lot of things before coming to my site and it has offered them the most extensive and
How to find breakouts on stocks
detailed methods to swing and position trade. using Telechart
Unless you understand that no site, no service, and no mentoring is going to work. How to find shorts using Telech
Over the years thousands of traders have been members and those who benefited from the learning talk about the How to profit from a free email s
site to others or talk about the methods used and that is how new members learn about the site. How to scan for IBD 200 stocks
You will learn about Stockbee Episodic Pivots Breakout method which uses Post Earnings Announcement Drift Maths of swing trading
(PEAD) to find stocks that had a game changing earnings and that are likely to rally for 3 months to 12 months. New Traders and cognitive load
You will learn about Stockbee Market Monitor method for market timing using breadth. It allows you to avoid risky The hundred year old art of swi
periods in market and allows you to identify market turns. It is used for 401k allocation decisions. The Kirk Report Strategy Sessio
Think Methods
You will learn about Stockbee Night Time is Right Time method to find news catalyst based trade ideas for short term
Trading checklist for morning
day trade and swing trade.
Trading psychology issues to th
You will learn about Investor's Business Daily’s IBD 200 list and how it can be used to find swing trading candidates for Two Types of Traders
explosive moves.
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12.02.22, 20:49 Stockbee: What are Episodic Pivots and how to find them
You will learn about Telechart 2000 and how to use it effectively to scan for swing and position trade ideas and to set
You will learn about Jesse Livermore Range Breakout, Darvas Box setup, and many other member shared methods.
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You will learn how to set up your own scans, select right kind of stocks, how to set up stops, when to enter , when to
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exit, how much to risk, how to track your trades and all other details about trading. You will learn about developing
your own methods and not relying on others for trade ideas.
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developing the methods and share actively their research and finding. A collaborative spirit allows you to get input
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The site gives you opportunity to interact with some of the most successful traders and learn from them about their
trading methods. It is a vibrant community with members from different background and experience willing to help Pradeep Bonde
each other. The emphasis is on continuous learning and up gradation of market knowledge and setup knowledge. The [email protected]
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20 sectors
Why do post bankruptcy p
By
Pradeep Bonde
at
February 12, 2010
do well ?
25 stocks with momentum
I recently discovered your site through the Kirk Report, and was especially interested in your EP scan How to become good at tr
for Telechart.
Episodic Pivots
KCP: Kenneth Cole Produ
earnings breakout
I tried to reproduce the scan using Amibroker, and using its built-in backtester, didn't find the result
ecouraging (about 6% CAR). However, when I modified the scan to also detect the subsequent flag 20 stocks with momentum
after the breakout, as described in the Earnings Flag pattern on p893 of Bulkowski's book, which you The little secret to trading
also referred to, the results for the period 2000 to the present were about 50% CAR.
success
The Kirk Report Strategy
This scan is a purely mechanical buy/sell backtested system, so I would expect better results in real- Session
life.
22 stocks with momentum
GPRE: earnings breakout
Thanks for building this site. I intend to subscribe.
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12.02.22, 20:49 Stockbee: What are Episodic Pivots and how to find them
I buy less than 1% stocks from that scan. Tere are additional criteria like eps growth, sales growth, ►
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extent of neglect, nature of catalyst which are used to narrow the scan candidates further. So it is not ►
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a pure mechanical method.
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ANS
said...
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Pradeep,
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Why do you use 8% and not 6, 10 or some other number? What's the reasoning behind the selection ►
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criteria being a rise of 8%. ►
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PEAD basically says that a company with earnings surprises will good stock price appreciation in
next few quarters, so it's possible that a company with good earnings surprise may not have ►
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immediate price action and hence may get missed in the scan. ►
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Thanks for all the info.
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Pradeep Bonde
said...
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Going by past experience and research typically a stock which makes 85 plus kind of move on
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earnings tend to do well.
I also use a monthly EP scan to find stocks that breakout later after earnings. Besides that i also use ►
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a screen for stocks which had 50% plus earnings surprise last quarter. So there are many ways in ►
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which this concept is traded. ►
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Sep 30, 2010, 3:11:00 PM ►
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ANS
said...
I tried finding in the articles on Episodic Pivots about setting stops, however could not find anything.
The entry criteria are pretty well definied, such as running the scan and looking at what news item
caused the move as well as what was the chart action prior to the move. However, I could not find
anything about a stop.
What sort of exit strategy should one follow if trying to trade the EP method?
Sep 30, 2010, 3:31:00 PM
Pradeep Bonde
said...
Because we track earnings daily most of the time we enter these kind of trades in pre market or at
open. In such cases the stop is the low of last 2 days before entry. The exits are in 4 parts with profit
target of 20% plus.
Sep 30, 2010, 3:36:00 PM
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