The essence of this essay is to find and identify an alternative that demographers can put into use

other than a census which is a key source of Data and one considered to be costly and expensive
in order to project the population considering the 2010 census findings that Zambia has had so as
to estimate the 2020 population.Special attention will be placed on the relevance of undertaking
a census in Zambia and at the same time addressing the many challenges that might be
encountered if reliance is put on the ‘so called’ population projections alone.

A census is imperatively seen as one of the main sources of social – demographic statistics that
are there today. Countries across the globe have had a census or so in recent times or dating back
to the 1990’s. According to the United Nations secretariat under the population division, about
184 countries and areas have had a census carried out during the period 1995 – 2004. This shows
how much it is of a subject matter.

A census is often times generally referred to and define but it occurs in two parts. There is what
is called a population census and the other one is called Housing census. A population census is
the total process of collecting, compiling, evaluating, analyzing and publishing or disseminating
demographic, economic, social data pertaining at a specific time, to all persons in a country or in
a well delimitated part of a county.This part of a census does not only cover a settled population
but also homeless persons and nomadic groups. It provides data in terms of geographic units,
regions of a country to individual small localities or city blocks.(UN; 2008).

Housing census on the other hand is the total process of collecting, compiling, evaluating,
analyzing and publication or otherwise disseminating statistical data pertaining at a specific time
to all living quarters and occupants therefore in well delimitated part of a country. It provides all
the information on the supply of housing units together with information on the structural
characteristics and facilities that have a bearing on maintenance of privacy, health and also
development of normal family living conditions. (ibid)

The whole process of a census involves mapping the entire country, mobilizing and training an
army of enumerators, conducting a massive public campaign, canvassing all households,
collecting individual information, compiling vast amounts of completed questionnaires and
analyzing sa well as disseminating Data.

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A census is held traditionally as seen in most cases and at regular intervals. Thou it gives time
for preparations to hold another one, especially when the period of undertaking is long, its not
easy to say resources are atleast spared.

Its clear to say that a census is so costly and expensive and so a lot of countries would rather
adopt another method of collecting data from the entire population and establish it.This is to cut
on the immense number of resources used to avoid incurring costs and everything including
time as a precious resources at the expense of a number of areas that lag behind in terms of
development. it is wise for demographers to use a method of just estimating and forecasting
future populations looking back at the findings that came up in the last census of 2010 to
estimate the future population of Zambia in the year 2020.

It is therefore imperative that a census can be undertaken in Zambia in that when information on
the size, distribution and characteristics of Zambia’s population is known, it becomes very easy
to describe and asses the economic and social demographic circumstances in Zambia. Sound
policies and programmes are created to foster the welfare of the country. This means census
information helps in policy – making, planning and administrative purposes. Census Data
importance can vividly be seen in administrative uses for instance demarcation of constituencies
and also allocation of representation on government bodies. A census needs to be carried out or
undertaken for purposes of research in various key sectors of development in Zambia. This
includes the business, industry and labour sectors. Various production sectors would need to
have accurate information on the size of the population in terms of consumption behavior which
is of key importance to Zambia’s economy because consumer demand for goods and services
drivers the production of commodities. Information on the distribution of population by age and
sex heavily influence demand for clothing, recreational facilities, housing, furnishing, food and
clothing. The supply of labour also depends on census statistics in terms of size and distribution
of the population for production and distribution of goods and services for the welfare of the
country. (Principles and Recommendations for population and housing Census; 2008).

The UN through revision two of the principles of recommendations for population and housing
also goes on to say that electoral boundary delimitation is also one of the reasons why zambia
would need a census.This helps the electoral commission of zambia to redraw electoral
constitutional bounderies with respect to election by looking at the way the population is

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distributed across the country. Census also are relevant in that they are sampling frames for
surveys if consideration is put on studying part of the country’s population in characterics such
as labour force, fertility and migration.(ibid)

In Zambia, there are many people and hence households as seen from the 2010 population of
13092666. It increase from 9885 591 in 2000. (central statistical office, 2010).A census is used
as a bench maric for housing statistics which is vital for which developing National housing and
human settlement programmes by housing bodies in the country.Census undertakings are vital in
that they help to formulate policies and programmes of housing across the country. Government
authorities use it for diagnosis of housing situation and analysis of housing situations across the
country. For instance, through a census, data on housing materials used show a reduction or
improvement in the welfare of the citizenry of Zambia. (UN nations publishing).

Zambia cannot rely on populations projection alone because they only provide an estimate of
what will be if certain components of population change namely fertility, mortality and migration
are kept constant. For this reason population projections lack both objectivity and an indication
of how likely they are to occur. (H Booth et al, 2003). Population projectors are also limited with
respect to the age pattern that are embodied in future age specific rates of mortality, fertility and
net migration. (ibid).They also do not take into account policy or development aims in local
authorities and are therefore not produced for experimental statistics. (Rowland D. T, 2003).
Reliance in population projects alone also does not work well because they do not account for
any future policy changes because of their assumptions which are demographically trend based.
They do not predict the impact of future government policies or changing economic
circumstances.

Projections are also unsuitable in countries like Zambia which are developing because they
mostly have less reliable data on correct population size, birth and death rates. Zambia has got
also young age groups and population projections and assumptions about fertility and mortality
have got a great effect at young and also old population ages. For longer periods than shorter
ones assumption are incorrect because over time they get so easily affected and locking at
Zambia, it takes a period of 10 years to have a census so in this way, there can be negative
impact of population projects in that they may not project the exact population that a census
would happen to count. (National Record of Scotland; 2017).

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Unreliable statistic that can obviously be attained through a projection alone may not ensure
available resources put into development are used as effective as possible. Statistics of data that
can be obtained through a population projection may cause damage on transparency and
accountability of policy making both of which are essential for good governance and for
electorates to judge the success of government policies and hold them accountable for their
policies. For instance, for public health spending to have the greatest possible impact on reducing
mortality and disability, information is required about which diseases have got the largest effects
on reducing the health status of population.In a situation where projection do not consider past
mortality issues that much, the health expenditure may be underspent or overspent which may
create problems and this precisely affects countries with the weakest information system. (role of
statistic in world development: 2007)

From a certain view point, census still remains the better key source of data locking at the broad
range of issues it covers unlike the population project which rest in mere assumptions about a
population. It is therefore, imperative that Zambia continues to grace census as a key source of
data for the benefit of the country’s development if the country is to reach higher heights by
investing so much into it. For now there can be no better alternative.