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E Popu 202 0327
E Popu 202 0327
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What are the links between trends in family behaviour and changes
in the labour market? Economic fluctuations have a particularly important
impact on the beginning of the working life of young people at the time
when they may be starting a family. How will a young woman who is in a
childless couple react when she is confronted with a period of unemploy-
ment? Will she accelerate her maternity schedule in view of the “free”
time that is thus imposed on her? Or, on the contrary, will she temporarily
forego those plans in consideration of the uncertain future and the material
difficulties linked to the search for employment? Or are these two spheres
— family and occupation — independent of one another? With respect to
According to the INSEE surveys, the age at which half of the women had
become mothers was 26 years for those born in 1963-1966 and 28.2 years
for those born between 1968 and 1971 (Galland, 2000).
at first birth is thus all the more marked from one generation to the next as
women become increasingly educated.
Women’s labour force participation rates have grown considerably
since the beginning of the 1970s. In March 2001 nearly 80% of women
aged 25-49 were employed or were seeking employment (full time or part
time) whereas the corresponding figure in 1975 was less than 59% (Aerts
and Mercier, 2001). But the labour force participation rates of women are
all the lower as their parity is higher. In January 1999, 79% of women
aged 25-49 were in the labour force; this rate was 88% among childless
women in union, 83% for mothers of one child, 74% for those with two
children and 52% for women with at least three children. With the excep-
tion of a very recent decline due to the influence of the extension of the
parental educational allowance in July 1994 (Bonnet and Labbé, 1999),
the economic activity of mothers of two or more children has increased the
most.
Among younger women, inactivity (in the sense of not being in the
labour market) has become increasingly uncommon. In 1995, 8% of
women aged 15-29 were homemakers, whereas the corresponding figure in
1975 was 19% (Meron and Minni, 1995). Since 1995, however, some of
these changes have slowed down. The duration of formal education has
stopped increasing and the percentage of inactive women has stopped fall-
ing (Brunet and Minni, 2000).
The effect of women’s employment status has not been studied very
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(1) The year is the unit of time used in this analysis. Earlier work using the same method
showed that monthly dates add but little supplementary information (Kempeneers and Lelièvre,
1991).
UNEMPLOYMENT LEADS WOMEN TO POSTPONE THE BIRTH OF THEIR FIRST CHILD 307
27
Bac or higher
26
25
BEPC, CAP, BEP
24
No certificate or CEP
23
22
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989
Year
Figure 1.– Average age of mothers at the birth of their first child,
by level of education
Legend: see footnote 3 p. 312 for an explanation of the French educational categories.
Source: INSEE Family Survey, 1990.
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45
40 No certficate or CEP
35
30
25
BEPC, CAP, BEP
20
15 Bac
10
5 Higher education
0
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989
Year
(if neither of these events occurs) until the date of the survey. We limit the
period of observation to a maximum of eight years of union.
First, we consider here women aged 31 to 45 at time of survey (1997),
who reported retrospectively at least one date of union or marriage. We
eliminated those women who had a first birth before the year of union. We
will then study younger women (ages 24-29), to determine whether the
trends observed have continued among the more recent birth cohorts.
(2) This condition was verified for the first eight years of life together, but the graphs are
not presented here.
310 M. MERON, I. WIDMER
90
80 Cohort 1964-1966
70
60
Cohort 1961-1963
50
40
Cohort 1955-1957
30 Cohort 1958-1960
20 Cohort 1952-1954
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Duration of union (in years)
70
60 Bac + 2 yrs
50 CAP-BEP
Baccalaureat
40
30 BEPC
20
No certificate
10 or CEP
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Duration of union (in years)
TABLE 1.– TIME ELAPSED BETWEEN BEGINNING OF UNION AND BIRTH OF FIRST CHILD, BY COHORT AND LEVEL OF EDUCATION,
ACCORDING TO WOMAN’S ACTIVITY(1) IN THE INTERVENING PERIOD (MEDIAN DURATIONS IN YEARS)
In such an analysis, the curves can be inferred one from the other as a
function of a multiplicative factor, or relative risk. The relative risks,
which are interpreted in relation to a reference category that takes a value
of 1, are presented in the tables of results of the models. This analysis con-
firms that the differences due to each of the two variables (level of educa-
tion and cohort) remain significant when both variables are introduced
together in the model.
...but this does not depend on the age at which the union began
For women born between 1963 and 1966, the median age at start of
union ranges from 20.2 years for those who do not have even the CAP to
21.8 years for those with a CAP or BEP, 23.1 years for those with a bacca-
lauréat and 24.4 years for women with higher education (3). Yet the analy-
sis shows that age at beginning of union does not have a significant effect
on the time elapsed before first birth once cohort and educational attain-
ment have been controlled for (Table 2). This surprising result indicates
that these two variables, in summarising the characteristics of the past and
the social background of the young woman, are sufficient to explain the
age at beginning of union. Consequently, including this age in the analy-
sis, in addition to cohort and level of education, does not add anything.
In contrast, other variables that are known to influence fertility be-
haviour play a significant role here. For example, given the level of educa-
tion and the cohort, women from large families of origin become mothers
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(3) The lowest diploma in the French educational system is the CEP [Certificat d’études
primaires], the primary-school-leaving certificate. This is followed by the CAP [Certificat d’apti-
tude professionnelle], a lower-level vocational training certificate obtained in four years; the
BEPC [Brevet d’études du premier cycle] which is sat after four years of secondary education in a
collège: this is the “lower secondary diploma”; and the BEP [Brevet d’études professionnelles], a
higher-level vocational training diploma obtained in six years. The students who enter a lycée af-
ter the BEPC prepare (in three years) the baccalauréat (or “bac”), the secondary school diploma
that leads to higher education: this is the “upper secondary diploma”. “Bac + 2” means two years
of higher education, etc.
UNEMPLOYMENT LEADS WOMEN TO POSTPONE THE BIRTH OF THEIR FIRST CHILD 313
TABLE 2.– ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS AND RELATIVE RISKS OF HAVING A FIRST CHILD
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF UNION, BY COHORT, LEVEL OF EDUCATION, AND AGE AT THE
START OF THE UNION (SEMI-PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS) – SAMPLE OF WOMEN AGED 31-45
ment mixed with unemployment is most common among the youngest and
least educated women. The requirement in the survey that in order to be
counted as periods of unemployment there must be six continuous months
of job-hunting explains why this situation is relatively uncommon, even
though it affects nearly one woman out of ten. One woman in five pursues
her studies after the beginning of union, and this is observed mostly
among the best-educated women (more than one in three). A spell of at
least six months out of the labour force was reported by more than one in
fi ve o f t h e l e a s t e d u c a t e d w o m e n ( t h o s e w h o h a d n o t p a s s e d t h e
baccalauréat) (Appendix, Table B).
Compared with women of the same cohort and educational level,
those who had always been in the labour force delayed having a first child
longer after the start of union. But this prolongation of the period as a
childless couple is greater for the women who experienced intermittent pe-
riods of employment than for those who report only continuous employ-
ment. Continuous periods of unemployment postpone the arrival of a first
child the most (Table 1, figure 5).
314 M. MERON, I. WIDMER
90 90 Born in 1960s
80 Experienced unemployment 80 Born in 1950s
70 70
60 60
Experienced unemployment
50 50
40 40
Did not experience
30 30 Did not experience
unemployment
20 20 unemployment
10 10
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Long-term employment
Percentage Ined 311 02 Percentage Ined 311 02
100 100
90 90
80 80
70 70
Experienced long-term employment
60 60
Experienced long-term employment
50 50
40 40
30 30
90 90
Experienced studies
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60 60
50 50
40 40
Did not experience
30 studies 30
Did not experience
20 20
studies
10 10
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Inactivity
Percentage Ined 311 02 Percentage Ined 311 02
100 100
90 90
80 80
70 70
Did not experience
Did not experience inactivity
60 inactivity 60
Experienced
50 inactivity 50
40 40
30 30
20 20 Experienced
inactivity
10 10
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Duration of union (in years) Duration of union (in years)
Figure 5.– Proportion of childless women by duration of union and various work-
and education-related situations, for the birth cohorts of the 1950s
and the 1960s (survival function)
Source: INSEE Youth and Careers Survey, 1997.
UNEMPLOYMENT LEADS WOMEN TO POSTPONE THE BIRTH OF THEIR FIRST CHILD 315
TABLE 3.– ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS AND RELATIVE RISKS OF HAVING A FIRST CHILD
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF UNION, BY COHORT, LEVEL OF EDUCATION, AND ACTIVITY
EXPERIENCES (SEMI-PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS). SAMPLE OF WOMEN AGED 31-45
Model A Model B
Coefficient Relative risk Coefficient Relative risk
Cohorts
1952-1954 0.11* 1.12 0.11** 1.12
1955-1960 Ref. 1.00 Ref. 1.00
1961-1966 – 0.12*** 0.89 – 0.12*** 0.88
Level of education:
More than two years higher educa-
tion – 0.55*** 0.58 – 0.50*** 0.61
Baccalauréat to bac + 2 – 0.22*** 0.81 – 0.22*** 0.80
BEPC, CAP, BEP(1) Ref. 1.00 Ref. 1.00
None or primary school certificate 0.13*** 1.14 0.19*** 1.21
Activity status(2)
Employment and unemployment – 1.16*** 0.32
Employment without unemploy-
ment – 0.55*** 0.58
No employment Ref. 1.00
Experienced unemployment – 0.41*** 0.67
Did not experience unemployment Ref. 1.00
Experienced inactivity 0.15*** 1.16
Did not experience inactivity Ref. 1.00
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more ambiguous when broken down by cohort and level of education and
the influence of further studies is compared with that of employment or
unemployment. Women born in the 1950s who pursued studies while they
lived in a union postponed the arrival of their first child less than those
who were unemployed. In contrast, students born during the 1960s delay
even longer than the members of the same cohorts who are in the labour
force (Table 1).
TABLE 4.– ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS AND RELATIVE RISKS OF HAVING A FIRST CHILD
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF UNION, BY COHORT, LEVEL OF EDUCATION, ACTIVITY STATUS(ES)
IN YEAR OF BEGINNING OF UNION (MODEL C), OR EXPOSURE TO UNEMPLOYMENT
BEFORE OR AFTER THE BEGINNING OF UNION (MODEL D) (SEMI-PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS)
SAMPLE OF WOMEN AGED 31-45 YEARS
Model C Model D
Coefficient Relative risk Coefficient Relative risk
Cohorts
1952-1954 0.13** 1.14 0.11* 1.12
1955-1957 0.02 1.02 Ref. 1.00
1958-1960 Ref. 1.00 0.01* 1.01
1961-1963 – 0.11* 0.90 – 0.11* 0.89
1964-1966 – 0.13* 0.88 – 0.13* 0.88
Level of education:
More than two years higher
education – 0.41*** 0.66 – 0.48*** 0.62
Two years higher education – 0.19*** 0.82 – 0.24*** 0.79
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90
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50
40
No baccalaureat,
30 born in 1971-1973
20
No baccalaureat,
10 born in 1968-1970
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Duration of union (in years)
beginning of the union, while this median is longer by two years for those
who did not experience this situation (Table 1, Figure 7).
The time spent in childless union is shorter when the woman has lit-
tle education and when she has withdrawn from the labour force. The ef-
fect of inactivity is especially notable for the women who were already
non-working homemakers during the year when the union began (Table 5,
model F). Other activity statuses during that year are not significant in the
models, despite the fact that the frequency of unemployment, studying,
and short employment spells is more important for the young women of
this sample than for their elders.
TABLE 5.– ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS AND RELATIVE RISKS OF HAVING A FIRST CHILD
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF UNION, BY COHORT, LEVEL OF EDUCATION,
ACTIVITY EXPERIENCES SINCE THE START OF THE UNION (MODEL E), OR ACTIVITY
STATUS(ES) IN YEAR OF BEGINNING THE UNION (MODEL F) (SEMI-PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS)
SAMPLE OF WOMEN AGED 24-29
Model E Model F
Coefficient Relative risk Coefficient Relative risk
Cohorts
1968-1970 Ref. 1.00 Ref. 1.00
1971-1973 – 0.19* 0.83 – 0.23** 0.80
Level of education
More than two years higher educa-
tion – 1.30*** 0.27 – 1.23*** 0.29
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90 90
80 80
Experienced unemployment Experienced unemployment
70 70
40 40
Did not experience
30 30
unemployment
20 20
10 10
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Long-term employment
Percentage Ined 321 02 Percentage Ined 322 02
100 100
90 90
40 40
Did not experience
30 30 long-term employment
20 20
10 10
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Studies
Percentage Ined 323 02 Percentage Ined 311 24
100 100
90 90
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60 60
50 50
Did not experience studies
40 40
20 20
10 10
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Inactivity
Percentage Ined 325 02 Percentage Ined 326 02
100 100
90 90
70 70
60 60
Did not experience inactivity
Experienced inactivity
50 50
40 40
Experienced inactivity
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Duration of union (in years) Duration of union (in years)
Thus we consider the time elapsed between the start of union (t 0=first year of
union) and the year of birth of the first child (t 1), if this birth takes place within 8
years of the start of union without separation of the partners. Beyond 8 years, the
proportional hazards model that we use is no longer applicable; these relatively
infrequent situations (fewer than 5%) cannot be studied in the same way.
Three groups are included in the analysis as “right-censored data”: women
who remained with their first partner but had no child during the first eight years of
life in union (t 1= t 0+8); women who separated from their first partner before having
a child and before eight years together in union with that partner (t 1= date of sepa-
ration); and women for whom the date of the survey intervened before a child was
born and before eight years in union (t 1= 1997).
Several activity statuses (employed, unemployed, student, inactive) may be
recorded during the same calendar year in the survey. All are taken into considera-
tion for the period under study. For the younger women, labour force data are more
detailed.
a) Women aged 31 to 45
Of the 6,256 women in the sample who were born between 1952 and 1966,
5,771 have lived in a couple. The others, representing about 12.4% of the younger
women (born 1964-1966) and 5.1% of the older ones (born 1952-1954) are
excluded from the sample.
Among the women who have lived in a union, 163 are eliminated because
they had a child before the start of the union. Another 102 are excluded because
their activity status was not recorded at the start of the union, and their status with
respect to studies and the labour market at that time cannot be determined.
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TABLE A.– STRUCTURE OF THE SAMPLES OF THE YOUTH AND CAREERS SURVEY
AND TIME ELAPSED BETWEEN THE START OF THE UNION AND THE BIRTH
OF THE FIRST CHILD (MEDIAN DURATION IN YEARS)
portion was close to 53% among the most educated women. Periods of short-term
employment and unemployment are especially prevalent among the youngest and
the least educated. Nearly three women in 10 experienced unemployment. Among
the most educated women, 56.7% continued with their studies after starting their
union; among those without a secondary education diploma, 16% experienced at
least one period of inactivity (Table B).
c) To weight or not to weight
The sample is representative of the total population and the weights take into
account the non-response rates (which were relatively low, around 7%) by sex, age,
type of activity, and size of urban area. The 5,506 women aged 31 to 45 in the sam-
ple are representative of approximately 5,660,000 women in that age range as of
March 1997, and the 1,565 younger women born between 1968 and 1973, of
1,695,000 women (Table A). Should the sample cases be weighted in the analyses?
In a cross-sectional analysis, each surveyed individual clearly represents a weight
in the sampling frame. In longitudinal analyses, the answer is not so clear. Since the
sample is representative as of the time of survey, it may also be assumed to be rep-
resentative of the past of the individuals covered by the survey. But this point is a
debatable one (Hoem, 1985). The condition for being able to use a non-weighted
sample is that it be non-informative. Unfortunately, this condition can never be per-
fectly verified. It is, however, indispensable to work also with non-weighted sam-
ples to test the significance of the results.
Neglecting the new non-responses introduced by the “poorly completed” life
histories, we recalculated a certain number of results by attributing to each individ-
ual her weight in the survey. These weighted results differ only slightly from the
non-weighted results, bearing witness to the quality of the initial sampling
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REFERENCES
A ERTS Anne-Thérèse, MERCIER Marie-Annick, 2001, “Enquête sur l’emploi de mars 2001 : la
forte hausse de l’emploi se poursuit”, Insee Première, no. 785, 5 p.
BARRÈRE-M AURISSON Marie-Agnès, MARCHAND Olivier, 2000, “Famille et marché du travail dans
les pays développés au seuil de l’an 2000”, Premières informations et premières syn-
thèses, no. 11.1, 8 p.
BAUDELOT Christian, ESTABLET Roger, 2000, Avoir 30 ans en 1968 et en 1998, Éditions du Seuil,
217 p.
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sance de leurs deux premiers enfants : l’impact de l’allocation parentale d’éducation”,
Études et résultats, no. 37, 7 p.
B RUNET François, M INNI Claude, 2000, “L’activité des 15-29 ans : stabilisation depuis 1995”,
Premières informations et premières synthèses, no. 08.3, 11 p.
UNEMPLOYMENT LEADS WOMEN TO POSTPONE THE BIRTH OF THEIR FIRST CHILD 329
COURGEAU Daniel, LELIÈVRE Éva, 1989, Analyse démographique des biographies, Paris, Ined,
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C OURGEAU Daniel, MERON Monique, 1996, “Mobilité résidentielle, activité et vie familiale des
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D ESPLANQUES Guy, S ABOULIN Michel de, 1986, “Mariage et premier enfant : un lien qui se dé-
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M ERON Monique, W IDMER Isabelle.– Unemployment Leads Women to Postpone the Birth
of Their First Child
Unemployment, more than other activity statuses, prompts childless young women in un-
ion to delay a prospective maternity. This result is established here for women born between
1952 and 1973, on the basis of data from the Youth and Careers Survey carried out by INSEE
in 1997. Young women confronted with a period of unemployment chose to forego their first
child for a while, rather than take advantage of the “free” time imposed on them. In contrast,
homemakers especially at the beginning of their union tend to have their first births much more
rapidly. This result confirms that a period of unemployment is not tantamount to a period of in-
activity. In matters of fertility, unemployed women are not homemakers.
Economic fluctuations have an especially important impact on the early working life of
the young, at the very time when they may be starting a family. The usual statistical analyses do
not make it possible to demonstrate a clear link between the growth of unemployment and the
increase in the age at first birth. Biographical analysis sheds light on the impact of female un-
employment on childbearing plans, by including the timing of life history events of individuals
among the variables that explain behaviour.
In a society where contraception makes it possible for women to master the timing of
their fertility and where female labour force participation has become the norm, these findings
show that the family building process and the couples’ decisions are now factoring in the work
experience and the career goals of both partners.
M ERON Monique, W IDMER Isabelle.– Las mujeres en paro posponen la llegada del pri-
mer hijo
El paro, más que otras situaciones laborales, incita a las mujeres jóvenes en pareja y
sin hijos a posponer los proyectos de maternidad. Este artículo confirma este postulado para
las mujeres nacidas entre 1952 y 1973 a través de los resultados de la encuesta Jóvenes y
Carreras llevado a cabo por el INSEE en 1997. Las mujeres jóvenes en paro renuncian tempo-
ralmente a tener un primer hijo en lugar de anticipar su llegada para aprovechar el tiempo
“libre” impuesto. La situación de ama de casa, en cambio, conlleva primeras maternidades
mucho más jóvenes, especialmente al inicio de la vida en pareja. Este resultado confirma que
un período de desempleo no es equiparable a un periodo de inactividad: en términos de fe-
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Monique MERON, Institut National d’Études Démographiques, 133 bd Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20,
France, tel. : 33 0(1) 56 06 21 53, fax : 33 0(1) 56 06 21 99, e-mail : [email protected]