Amid Spasm of Violence, Israel's Far-Right Government Raises Risk of Escalation - The New York Times

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/28/world/middleeast/israelis-
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NEWS ANALYSIS
Amid Spasm of Violence, Israel’s Far-

Right Government Raises Risk of
Escalation
Israel and the West Bank were gripped by violence this
week. Its roots predate Israel’s new far-right government,
but the government’s ministers and goals are fueling
tensions.
By Patrick Kingsley
Reporting from Jerusalem.
Jan. 28, 2023
The new far-right government in Israel has been in power

for only a month, but on its watch, Israelis and
Palestinians have already experienced one of their
region’s most violent phases, outside a full-scale war, in
years.
Nine Palestinians were shot dead on Thursday morning,
in the deadliest Israeli raid in the West Bank for at least a
half-decade. Then, a Palestinian gunman killed seven
people on Friday night outside a synagogue in Jerusalem,
the deadliest attack on civilians in the city since 2008.
And on Saturday, an attacker who the police said was 13
years old shot and injured two Israelis near a settlement
in East Jerusalem.
These events were not unique to this government’s

tenure. But analysts fear that the policies and leaders of
the new Israeli administration — the most right-wing in
Israeli history — are likely to further inflame the
situation.
The new government is an alliance of settler activists,

hard-line nationalists and ultraconservatives helmed by
Benjamin Netanyahu, and its leaders variously seek to
annex the West Bank, further ease the Israeli Army’s
rules of engagement and entrench Israeli control over a
sacred site in Jerusalem. All of that has already provoked
a surge in Palestinian anger and made it harder for the
remaining moderate forces in the Israeli government to
defuse tensions.
Under the previous government, “Israeli policy was

designed to maintain the illusion of stability,” said Nimrod
Novik, a former senior Israeli official and an analyst at
the Israel Policy Forum.
Now, Mr. Novik added, “That cover has been taken away.”
In recent interviews, Mr. Netanyahu has frequently

dismissed such arguments as alarmist, and said that his
party, Likud, would take charge of maintaining stability.
On Saturday night in a televised speech, Mr. Netanyahu

called for a measured response and warned against
vigilantism, saying, “We are not seeking escalation, but
we are prepared for every scenario.”
To be sure, the government has inherited an unstable

dynamic from previous administrations.
The Jerusalem shooting drew comparisons with a wave

of five Palestinian attacks that killed 19 Israelis and
foreigners last spring, during the previous Israeli
government’s tenure.
Itamar Ben-Gvir, center left, and Benjamin Netanyahu, center right,
at the scene of the shooting on Friday in East Jerusalem. Atef
Safadi/EPA, via Shutterstock
The West Bank raid was simply the continuation of a 10-

month Israeli military campaign in the territory that the
previous government began in response to that wave of
violence last spring, and that led to the deaths of more
than 170 Palestinians in 2022, the highest annual toll in
the West Bank for more than a decade and a half. Thirty
Israelis and foreigners were killed last year by
Palestinians, the highest toll since 2014.
The long-term roots of this cycle — including Israel’s
occupation of the West Bank in 1967 and the
establishment of a two-tier legal system there for Israeli
settlers and Palestinians; the failure of peace
negotiations, which stalled in 2014; and Palestinian
rejection of Israel and violence against Israelis — also far
predate any contemporary Israeli government.
Nevertheless, extremists in the current government were

elected on promises that have already added fuel to
Palestinian anger. And they have proved emboldened, not
cowed, by the rise in tensions.
Itamar Ben-Gvir, the new minister in charge of the police,

won a record number of seats in the general election in
November after campaigning to take stronger action
against Palestinians he deems a terrorist threat and
playing off fears exacerbated by interethnic riots between
Arabs and Jews in 2021.
The attack in Jerusalem on Friday has already

heightened calls from his supporters to make good on his
promises.
“Itamar, deal with them, Itamar!” shouted one bystander,

after Mr. Ben-Gvir arrived at the scene of the attack. “We
elected you, Itamar.”
“The government needs to respond,” Mr. Ben-Gvir

replied. “With God’s help, I hope that that’s what
happens.”
Mr. Ben-Gvir did not give details, but his background has
made Palestinians particularly apprehensive of his next
steps. In the 1990s, he was barred from serving in the
Israeli Army because security officials deemed him too
extremist. Until 2020, he displayed a large portrait in his
home of a Jewish gunman who killed 29 Palestinians in a
West Bank mosque in 1994.
“There’s a major change here,” said Hani Masri, a

Ramallah-based political analyst. “We used to see this on
the fringes, not among ministers.”
“We are in a new stage,” he added.

Mourners carrying the body of a Palestinian woman who was shot
and killed during a raid by Israeli soldiers on Thursday in the West
Bank. Majdi Mohammed/Associated Press
The new Israeli government has already prompted

greater focus on whether the two-state solution — the
term for a peace deal that would create a Palestinian
state alongside Israel — is not just unlikely, but
impossible. The government’s statement of guiding
principles began with a direct assertion of the Jewish
people’s exclusive right to both Israel and the occupied
West Bank.
Another coalition agreement promised to formally annex
the West Bank at a time of Mr. Netanyahu’s choice, and to
legalize dozens of unauthorized settlements in the
territory.
For now, Mr. Netanyahu has restrained some of his more

hard-line ministers from fully exerting their will in the
West Bank.
This month, he ignored demands from Bezalel Smotrich,

a far-right minister, to stop the army from evicting an
unauthorized Israeli settlement in the territory. But it is
unclear how long he can continue to deny his coalition
partner: He has promised to give Mr. Smotrich power
over the military department that oversees construction
and demolition in Israeli-administered parts of the
territory.
Through both public and private interventions, the United

States has also tried to avert some ministers’ more
drastic goals in the West Bank. Secretary of State Antony
J. Blinken is set to visit Jerusalem and Ramallah, in the
West Bank, on Monday and Tuesday, in a long-planned
visit.
But analysts doubt much can be achieved, given the high

emotions in both Israel and the West Bank after this past
week’s events.
The visit is “more likely to resemble an extended

condolence call than a productive diplomatic mission,”
said Aaron D. Miller, a former U.S. diplomat and a fellow
at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a
Washington-based research group.
“The blood is up on both sides,” he added.
Internal divisions within Palestinian society and its

leadership will also impede efforts to salve the situation.
The Palestinian Authority, the semiautonomous body that
has administered most Palestinian towns and cities in the
West Bank since the 1990s, is deeply unpopular among
ordinary Palestinians, many of whom accuse it of
collaboration with Israel for coordinating with Israeli
security forces.
Palestinians celebrating in Gaza City on Friday after the shooting in
East Jerusalem. Fatima Shbair/Associated Press
Since the authority’s establishment, its police and

intelligence officers have cooperated with Israeli
counterparts, sharing intelligence that officials say has
helped thwart attacks, retreating to their barracks during
Israeli raids, and sometimes arresting Palestinian
gunmen deemed a threat by Israel.
To supporters, the coordination is a trust-building

mechanism that helps stabilize relations with Israel and
sets the stage for a Palestinian state. To detractors,
including militant groups like Hamas, it is an act of
betrayal and acquiescence to Israel that brings
Palestinians little benefit, let alone sovereignty.
After the raid on Thursday, the authority announced the

suspension of security coordination. If fully established,
the move would cut off most contact between the Israeli
and Palestinian security services, making it easier for
both armed Palestinian groups and violent Israeli settlers
to act unimpeded.
Rising frustration and violence among young Palestinians

is also contributing to a combustible situation. The
number of deadly Palestinian attacks on Israelis rose last
year. So did the level of Palestinian resistance to Israeli
military raids, which in turn caused more deadly
gunfights between Palestinian armed groups and the
Israeli army in the heart of Palestinian cities.
All of this raises the likelihood of a conflagration, and

lessens the appeal of cooperation with Israel among the
Palestinian leadership and security apparatus.
Analysts and diplomats briefed on the suspension

decision believe that at least some level of cooperation
with Israel will continue in secret and could be quickly
reinstated in full — just as it was in 2017 and 2020.
But the current context may make it harder than in the

past for the authority to reverse its stance, said Ibrahim
Dalalsha, the director of the Horizon Center, a Palestinian
political research group.
Tensions with the Israeli government — members of

which have openly called for the authority’s collapse —
are unlikely to subside fast enough to allow the authority
to back down without losing face, Mr. Dalalsha said.
“There are no limits to how far this government can go,”

he said. “It’s a slippery slope.”
Israeli security forces blocking a road to prevent Palestinian
protesters from approaching the demolition of a house in the
occupied West Bank this month. Jaafar Ashtiyeh/Agence France-Presse
— Getty Images
Hiba Yazbek contributed reporting.

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https://www.nytimes.

Amid Spasm of Violence, Israel’s Far-

Jan. 28, 2023

The new far-right government in Israel has been in power

These events were not unique to this government’s

The new government is an alliance of settler activists,

Under the previous government, “Israeli policy was

In recent interviews, Mr. Netanyahu has frequently

On Saturday night in a televised speech, Mr. Netanyahu

To be sure, the government has inherited an unstable

The Jerusalem shooting drew comparisons with a wave

The West Bank raid was simply the continuation of a 10-

Nevertheless, extremists in the current government were

Itamar Ben-Gvir, the new minister in charge of the police,

The attack in Jerusalem on Friday has already

“Itamar, deal with them, Itamar!” shouted one bystander,

“The government needs to respond,” Mr. Ben-Gvir

“There’s a major change here,” said Hani Masri, a

“We are in a new stage,” he added.

The new Israeli government has already prompted

For now, Mr. Netanyahu has restrained some of his more

This month, he ignored demands from Bezalel Smotrich,

Through both public and private interventions, the United

But analysts doubt much can be achieved, given the high

The visit is “more likely to resemble an extended

“The blood is up on both sides,” he added.

Internal divisions within Palestinian society and its

Since the authority’s establishment, its police and

To supporters, the coordination is a trust-building

After the raid on Thursday, the authority announced the

Rising frustration and violence among young Palestinians

All of this raises the likelihood of a conflagration, and

Analysts and diplomats briefed on the suspension

But the current context may make it harder than in the

Tensions with the Israeli government — members of

“There are no limits to how far this government can go,”

Hiba Yazbek contributed reporting.

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