LEGAL MEMORANDUM
No. 315 | November 4, 2022
EDWIN MEESE III CENTER FOR LEGAL & JUDICIAL STUDIES

The Blue City Murder Problem

Charles D. Stimson, Zack Smith, and Kevin D. Dayaratna, PhD

F
acts are powerful and stubborn things.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Unfortunately, some on the Left have tried
to advance their arguments by using facts
The Left’s claim that America has a “red
about state murder rates that, while technically
state murder problem” is misleading and
true, are at best meaningless when taken out of
deflects from “progressive” soft-on-crime
policies that have wreaked havoc. context and at worst misleading and downright
dangerous when used as the basis for public
policy decisions.
New analysis of crime data shows that Enter the “Red State Murder Problem.” It sounds
high-crime counties are governed largely ominous, but it’s not. It is also highly misleading.
by Democrats, driving up the crime rates Those on the Left know that their soft-on-crime
in their otherwise red states.
policies have wreaked havoc in the cities where they
have implemented those policies. It is not hard to
Lowering America’s rising crime rates
understand why “reforms” such as ending cash bail,
requires that localities repudiate their defunding the police, refusing to prosecute entire cat-
pro-criminal, anti-victim policies that con- egories of crimes, letting thousands of convicted felons
tribute to lawlessness in blue counties. out of prison early, significantly cutting the prison
population, and other “progressive” ideas have led to

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LEGAL MEMORANDUM | No. 315
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massive spikes in crime—particularly violent crime, including murder—in

the communities where those on the Left have implemented them.
Left-wing politicians and their backers recognize that rising crime
rates and the lack of a general sense of safety that follows are a problem
for them and their chances for reelection. In fact, recent polls show that
voters care a lot about rising crime—an issue that is second only to rising,
rampant inflation and the lackluster economy. So the Left is engaging
in political traditions as old as time: obfuscation, finger pointing, and
blame shifting.
One liberal organization—The Third Way—even went so far as to publish
a “study” arguing that Republicans are actually to blame for the spike in
murders across the country. The not-so-subtle suggestion the study pushes
is that those on the Left are not responsible for rising crime rates because
crime is rising everywhere—especially in Republican-led states. Fighting
for their political survival, Left-wing politicians such as Gavin Newsom and
Larry Krasner have recently started to parrot the “results” of this study.1
But crime tends to be a hyper-localized phenomenon. State-level data
are generally meaningless—except as a tool with which to score political
points. More to the point, when the crime statistics from the deep-blue big
cities within these otherwise deep-red states are removed, what happens?
The state-level crime rates fall—in some cases, dramatically.

Crime Trends

Until recently, crime, including violent crime, has been declining across
the United States since the peak of the last crime wave in 1992.2 Not sur-
prisingly, since incarceration trails crime waves, incarceration rates have
also been falling dramatically since they last peaked in 2008.3
Unfortunately, however, the 25-plus year drop in crime since 1992 has
ended for many cities across the United States. The rise in crime, especially
violent crime, started taking place around 2015 after the confluence of a
series of events that took place over the course of a few years.
Those events include police-involved shootings of black community
members,4 the defund the police movement,5 the election of rogue prose-
cutors funded or inspired by George Soros and other elitist billionaires,6 and
the “Ferguson/Minneapolis Effect”7 by which unwarranted public scrutiny
of police resulted in police drastically reducing proactive policing. Crime
was rising in select cities across the country before the global COVID-19
pandemic struck in March 2020, but it rose even more significantly after
the death of George Floyd on May 25, 2020.
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The cumulative effect of these events contributed to and in large part set
the conditions for increased crime across much of the country, especially in
cities where the toxic trio of rogue prosecutors, defund the police zealotry,
and demonization/demoralization of the police existed. In those cities and
others with some mixture of this toxic trio crime has exploded across most
categories, including but not limited to murder.
As the old saying goes, the best defense is a good offense. So instead of
defending their calls to defund the police, the elections of pro-criminal
rogue prosecutors, or their pattern and practice of demonizing police,
some on the Left have decided to flip the narrative and argue that it is the
Republican states that have the real crime rate problem, especially when
it comes to murder.

The Red State Murder Herring

On March 15, 2022, a left-wing advocacy organization called The Third

Way published a 15-page study with the provocative title “The Red State
Murder Problem.”8 Written by Jim Kessler, a long-time Democratic policy
director to Representative/Senator Charles “Chuck” Schumer, and Kylie
Murdock, a former intern for Congresswoman Barbara Lee and volunteer
for Elizabeth Warren for President, the study states that “murder rates are
far higher in Trump-voting red states than Biden-voting blue states.”9 So
that the reader won’t miss the political drift, the authors add, “And some-
times, murder rates are highest in cities with Republican mayors.”10
The “crime rate” is the number of crimes reported to law enforcement
agencies for every 100,000 persons within a given population. It is calcu-
lated by dividing the number of reported crimes by the total population.
The result is then multiplied by 100,000.
Not surprisingly, dozens of media outlets, including The Washington
Post,11 The Hill,12 Inside Edition,13 Politifact,14 The Daily Beast,15 Los Angeles
Magazine,16 the San Francisco Examiner,17 NBC News18 and others, picked
up the “study” and breathlessly reported on its “findings.”19 Even Paul
Krugman, New York Times opinion columnist and economist, has joined
the echo chamber, albeit with an unconvincing and divorced-from-reality
opinion piece wherein he opines that “nobody knows for sure what caused
the surge.”20
We have a pretty good idea, and many voters apparently are starting to
figure it out as well.
The study’s authors and those reporting its results took advantage of the
fact that the average reader does not know much about crime trends, how
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crime rates are calculated, and at what level (city/county/state, etc.) these
statistics should be reviewed. Because of that, The Third Way’s study sounds
important and shocking to most readers who visit these “news” websites.
As noted earlier, however, most crime is hyperlocalized, so the funda-
mental flaw with the study and the reason it does not deserve any serious
consideration is that the “murder rate” in each state is largely a function
of the large number of murders in a state’s biggest city or cities.21 A super
majority of those cities, even in otherwise red states, are deep blue and run
by left-wing ideologues.
When you remove the crime-infested, homicide-riddled cities from the
state murder rate featured in the Third Way study, you dramatically lower
the murder rate for that state, upending their conclusions and exposing the
piece for what it really is: a straightforward attempt at political projection
dressed up as a “study.”
Said another way, Kessler and Murdock did their level best as political
operatives to blame their political opponents for the very thing—rising
crime—that leftist policies at the city and county levels have caused.
While a state’s murder rate is perhaps politically interesting, a more
accurate reflection of what is actually happening on the ground is gained
by reviewing localized murder rates, such as murder rates in a city or county.
What does this review show?
Table 1 lists the 30 cities with the highest murder rates in the United
States as of June 30, 2022.
Not surprisingly, of those 30 cities, 27 have Democratic mayors, the
exceptions being Lexington and Jacksonville, which have Republican
mayors, and Las Vegas, whose mayor is an Independent. And within those 30
cities there are at least 14 Soros-backed or Soros-inspired rogue prosecutors.
Those Soros bought-and-paid-for or inspired rogue prosecutors include:

l Jason Williams, New Orleans Parish District Attorney;

l Marilyn Mosby, Baltimore City State’s Attorney;22

l Kim Gardner, St. Louis Circuit Attorney;

l John T. Chisholm, Milwaukee County District Attorney;

l Larry Krasner, Philadelphia District Attorney;

l Kim Foxx, Cook County (Chicago) State’s Attorney;

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TABLE 1

Cities with Highest Homicide Rates, as of June 2022

Homicide Rate per

City Number of Homicides 100,000 Population
New orleans, LA 145 36.8
baltimore, mD 174 29.1
birmingham, AL 59 28.0
St Louis, mo 83 27.8
milwaukee, WI 112 19.0
Cleveland, oH 64 16.9
rochester, NY 34 16.6
Philadelphia, PA 240 15.1
Atlanta, GA 74 14.9
Kansas City, mo 73 14.6
Washington DC 104 14.6
richmond, vA 31 13.3
oakland, CA 54 12.3
Cincinnati, oH 36 11.8
Chicago, IL 304 11.2
Louisville, KY 73 10.8
Albuquerque, Nm 56 10
minneapolis, mN 43 9.9
Dallas, TX 122 9.0
Nashville, TN 55 8.0
Durham, NC 22 7.7
Lexington, KY 23 7.1
Jacksonville, FL 63 6.8
Greensboro, NC 19 6.3
Los Angeles, CA 176 4.4
Colorado Springs, Co 19 3.9
Las vegas, Nv 63 3.7
virginia beach, vA 13 2.9
San Francisco, CA 23 2.6
New York, NY 197 2.4

SOURCES: Datalytics, “YTD Murder Comparison,” https://www.ahdatalytics.com/dashboards/ytd-murder-

comparison/ (accessed November 3, 2022); Jeff Asher@Crimealytics, Twitter Post, July 1, 2022, 8:07 AM, https://
twitter.com/Crimealytics/ status/1542842217261408259?s=20&t=nqf7AzYJUIXufGX3UYj1BA (accessed November
3, 2022); Cameron McWhirter, “New Orleans Has America’s No. 1 Murder Rate. ‘We’re in a Crisis,’” The Wall Street
Journal, September 16, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/new- orleans-murder-rate-crime-11663338008
(accessed November 3, 2022).

Lm315 A heritage.org
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l Raul Torrez, Bernalillo County (Albuquerque) District Attorney;

l Mike Freeman, Hennepin County (Minneapolis) Attorney;

l John Creuzot, Dallas County District Attorney;

l Glenn R. Funk, Nashville District Attorney General;

l Santana Deberry, Durham District Attorney;

l George Gascon, Los Angeles County District Attorney;

l Chesa Boudin, San Francisco District Attorney;23 and

l Alvin Bragg, Manhattan District Attorney.

There were 2,554 homicides in those 30 cities through June 2022. In the
14 cities with Soros-backed rogue prosecutors, there were 1,752 homicides,
representing 68 percent of homicides in the 30 top homicide cities in the
United States.
Every Soros rogue prosecutor listed above is a Democrat.

A More Detailed Analysis

For a deeper dive into the numbers, we performed a more detailed anal-
ysis by examining how states’ homicide rates are influenced by particular
high-crime counties. Although the authors of the “The Red State Murder
Problem” provide the state-by-state data used in their study, they do not
directly provide the county-level data necessary to answer this question.24
County Health Rankings & Roadmaps (CHR&R), a program of the Uni-
versity of Wisconsin Population Health Institute, however, does provide
these comprehensive data.25 Specifically, CHR&R provides detailed data
on health care, education, economic, and demographic variables, including
homicide rates and overall state populations on a county-by-county basis
all across the country.
Table 2 provides homicide rate rankings across all 50 states based on
homicide data from 2014–2020.26
A closer examination of the local officials in the counties and cities listed
above reveals that the vast majority of them are Democrats.
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TABLE 2

Homicide Rates by State, 2014–2020

Homicide Rate per Homicide Rate per
Rank State 100,000 Population Rank State 100,000 Population
1 District of Columbia 19.846 27 virginia 4.447
2 Louisiana 13.390 28 Kansas 4.324
3 mississippi 12.303 29 West virginia 4.202
4 Alabama 10.728 30 Colorado 3.943
5 missouri 9.363 31 New Jersey 3.828
6 South Carolina 9.237 32 Wisconsin 3.515
7 maryland 8.835 33 Washington 3.223
8 New mexico 8.403 34 New York 3.206
9 Tennessee 7.783 35 Connecticut 3.064
10 Illinois 7.746 36 montana 2.869
11 Arkansas 7.688 37 oregon 2.758
12 oklahoma 7.411 38 Hawaii 2.559
13 Georgia 7.264 39 South Dakota 2.464
14 Alaska 7.112 40 Nebraska 2.323
15 Nevada 6.564 41 Wyoming 2.232
16 Delaware 6.486 42 massachusetts 2.190
17 North Carolina 6.396 43 Utah 2.092
18 Indiana 6.321 44 minnesota 1.962
19 ohio 6.157 45 Iowa 1.928
20 Florida 6.064 46 rhode Island 1.892
21 michigan 5.980 47 Idaho 1.642
22 Arizona 5.808 48 vermont 1.444
23 Pennsylvania 5.781 49 North Dakota 1.437
24 Texas 5.565 50 New Hampshire 1.244
25 California 4.971 51 maine 0.741
26 Kentucky 4.936

NOTES: Homicide rate in Washington, DC, differs from rate in Table 1 because homicide rates for
Washington, DC, in Table 1 are based on data through June 2022. See Appendix for full methodology.
Homicide rate data cover homicides from 2014–2020.
SOURCE: Authors’ calculations based on most recent data from County Health Rankings & Roadmaps,
https://www.countyhealthrankings.org/ (accessed November 3, 2022). Lm315 A heritage.org

l In Orleans Parish, Louisiana (which encompasses New Orleans), Dis-

trict Attorney Jason Williams, Mayor LaToya Cantrell, and all seven
members of the City Council are Democrats.27
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TABLE 3

Homicide Rates Recalculated Upon Removing Counties with High Homicide Rates

... the ... the

overall recalculated ... which is a
In the homicide homicide rate homicide rate
state of ... rate is ... If you were to remove ... would be ... reduction of ...
Louisiana 13.390 orleans Parish 11.302 –15.59%
mississippi 12.303 Hinds County (encompassing Jackson) 10.735 –12.75%
Alabama 10.728 Jefferson County 9.001 –16.10%
montgomery County 10.220 –4.74%
both Jefferson and montgomery Counties 8.314 –22.51%
missouri 9.363 St. Louis City 7.482 –20.09%
St. Louis County 8.395 –10.34%
both St. Louis City and St. Louis County 6.070 –35.17%
South Carolina 9.237 richland and Lexington Counties 9.210 –0.29%
(encompassing Columbia)
New mexico 8.403 bernalillo County 7.511 –10.62%
Tennessee 7.783 Shelby County 5.327 –31.56%
Davidson County 7.299 –6.22%
both Shelby and Davidson Counties 4.432 –43.05%
Illinois 7.746 Cook County 3.476 –55.12%
Arkansas 7.688 Pulaski County 6.256 –18.63%
Georgia 7.264 Fulton and DeKalb counties 6.009 –17.28%
(encompassing Atlanta)

NOTE: See Appendix for methodology.

SOURCE: Authors’ calculations based on most recent data from County Health Rankings & Roadmaps,
https://www.countyhealthrankings.org/ (accessed November 3, 2022). Lm315 A heritage.org

l In Hinds County, Mississippi, District Attorney Jody E. Owens and all

five members of the Board of Supervisors are Democrats.28 In Jackson
County, Mississippi, District Attorney Angel Myers McIlrath is a Repub-
lican, as are four of the five members of the Board of Supervisors,29 but
the City of Jackson Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba is a Democrat.

l In Jefferson County, Alabama, the Board of Commissions consists of

three Republicans and two Democrats.30 District Attorney Danny Carr
is a Democrat, as is Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin.

l The Montgomery County, Alabama, Board of Commissions consists of

three Republicans and two Democrats.31 District Attorney Daryl Bailey
is a Democrat, as is Montgomery Mayor Steven Reed.
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l The elected officials in the City of Saint Louis, Missouri, are all Demo-
crats. The 28 members of the Board of Alderman are all Democrats, as
are Circuit Attorney (the equivalent of a local district attorney) Kim
Gardner and Mayor Tishaura Jones.

l Saint Louis County is equally lopsided with elected Democrats, includ-

ing five of the seven members of the County Council and District
Attorney Wesley Bell.32

l The City of Columbia, South Carolina, is unique in that it straddles

two counties, Richland and Lexington. Richland County Solicitor (the
equivalent of the local district attorney) Byron E. Gipson is a Demo-
crat, as are nine of the 11 members of the Richland County Council.33
Lexington County Solicitor Rick Hubbard is a Republican, as are all
nine members of the Lexington County Council.34

l In Bernalillo County, New Mexico (which includes Albuquerque), four

of the five members of the Board of Commissioners are Democrats, as
are Mayor Tim Keller and District Attorney Raul Torrez.35

l In Shelby County, Tennessee, nine of the 13 members of the Board of

Commissioners are Democrats, as are Memphis Mayor Jim Strickland
and Shelby County District Attorney Steve Mulroy.36

l In Davidson County, Tennessee, members of the Metropolitan Nash-

ville Council are all listed as nonpartisan. However, both District
Attorney Glenn Funk and Mayor John Cooper are Democrats.

l Fifteen of the 17 members of the Cook County, Illinois (which encom-

passes Chicago) Board of Commissioners are Democrats,37 as are Cook
County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx, the first Soros rogue prosecutor,
and Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot.

l Nine of the 14 members of the Pulaski County, Arkansas, Quorum

Court (the county government’s legislative body) are Democrats,38 as
are Mayor Frank Scott Jr. and Prosecuting Attorney Larry Jegley of
Pulaski County, which encompasses Little Rock.

l In Georgia, all seven members of the Dekalb County Board of Com-

missioners are Democrats, as are District Attorney Sherry Boston
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CHART 1

Homicide Rates in Alabama and the Impact of

Montgomery and Jefferson Counties
HOMICIDE RATE PER 100,000 POPULATION
12
10.73
10.22
10
9.00
8.31
8

0
Statewide Statewide minus Statewide minus Statewide minus
Montgomery County Jefferson County Montgomery and
Jefferson Counties

NOTE: See Appendix for methodology.

SOURCE: Authors’ calculations based on most recent data from County Health Rankings & Roadmaps,
https://www.countyhealthrankings.org/ (accessed November 3, 2022).

LM315 A heritage.org

and Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens.39 DeKalb County encompasses the

eastern section of the City of Atlanta.

l Four of the seven members of the Board of Commissioners of Fulton

County, Georgia, which encompasses the rest of Atlanta, are Demo-
crats,40 as is District Attorney Fani Willis.

The authors of the Third Way “study” either intentionally neglected or

simply don’t understand that the “criminal justice system” within the 50
states is not a homogeneous nationwide system, but rather an amalgamation
of thousands of microcosms consisting of federal, state, county, and local
law enforcement agencies and prosecutors and unique approaches to the
enforcement of state law. There are, for example, 3,143 counties in this coun-
try. Violations of state law are prosecuted largely at the county or city level.
Your public safety as a resident is dramatically impacted by your district
attorney and whether he or she is a Soros rogue prosecutor or a law-and-
order prosecutor, by your police department, and by whether the local
politicians support and adequately fund the police and prosecutor’s offices.
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CHART 2

Homicide Rates in Missouri and the Impact of

St. Louis City and St. Louis County
HOMICIDE RATE PER 100,000 POPULATION
10 9.36
8.40
8 7.48

6.07
6

0
Statewide Statewide minus Statewide minus Statewide minus
St. Louis County St. Louis City St. Louis County and
St. Louis City

NOTE: See appendix for methodology.

SOURCE: Authors’ calculations based on most recent data from County Health Rankings & Roadmaps,
https://www.countyhealthrankings.org/ (accessed November 3, 2022).

LM315 A heritage.org

This is why the Soros rogue prosecutor movement has concentrated

its fire at identifying, recruiting, and funding candidates for local district
attorney races. By elevating pro-criminal, anti-victim zealots into office, the
rogue prosecutor movement destabilizes the safety of the community, treats
criminals as victims and the police as the criminals, and ignores real victims.
Whether a state as a whole voted for Donald Trump or Joe Biden has
nothing whatever to do with the homicide rates within its constituent parts.
The authors of the Third Way “study” are either oblivious to this fact or, as
we suspect, aware of this but nonetheless determined to flip the political
narrative. As we demonstrate, however, the high murder rate is almost
exclusively cabined in cities run by Democrats and with Democrat district
attorneys, many of whom are Soros bought-and-paid-for rogue prosecutors
or inspired by Soros, groups like the egregiously misnamed Fair and Just
Prosecution, and other battering rams of the movement.
As Table 2 illustrates, Washington, DC, has the nation’s highest homicide rate
at 19.846 homicides per 100,000 residents yet is completely neglected in “The
Red State Murder Problem.” Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi are also highly
ranked with homicide rates ranging from 13.390 to 10.728 per 100,000 residents).41
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CHART 3

Homicide Rates in Illinois and the Impact of

Cook County
HOMICIDE RATE PER 100,000 POPULATION

8 7.75

4 3.48

0
Statewide Statewide minus Cook County

NOTE: See Appendix for methodology.

SOURCE: Authors’ calculations based on most recent data from County Health Rankings & Roadmaps,
https://www.countyhealthrankings.org/ (accessed November 3, 2022).

LM315 A heritage.org

Louisiana’s homicide rate is heavily dependent on Orleans Parish, which

has a homicide rate of 36.126 homicides per 100,000 residents. Removing
this locality drops the state’s homicide rate from 13.390 to 11.302, a 15.59
percent reduction.
Alabama’s overall homicide rate is also heavily influenced by a few
localities. For example, removing Jefferson County drops the state’s
homicide rate from 10.728 to 9.001, a 16.10 percent reduction, and
removing Montgomery County drops the homicide rate to 10.220, a 4.74
percent reduction. Dropping both lowers the homicide rate to 8.314, a
22.51 percent reduction, and would lower the state’s ranking in Table
2 from fourth to eighth in the nation. These dramatic drops are illus-
trated in Chart 1.
Missouri’s overall homicide rate is marked by similar behavior. St.
Louis City and St. Louis County heavily influence the state’s homicide
rate, having 46.235 and 14.387 homicides per 100,000 residents, respec-
tively. Removing St. Louis City lowers the state’s homicide rate from 9.363
to 7.482 per 100,000 residents, a 20.09 percent reduction. Removing St.
Louis County lowers the homicide rate to 8.395 per 100,000 residents,)
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a 10.34 percent reduction, while dropping both counties reduces the

state’s homicide rate by 35.17 percent to 6.070 homicides per 100,000
residents. These reductions are apparent in Chart 2. Looking at Table 2,
removing both counties drops Missouri’s homicide ranking from fifth to
20th in the nation.
New Mexico’s homicide rate is heavily dependent on Bernalillo County,
encompassing the City of Albuquerque. Bernalillo County is the state’s most
populous county and has a homicide rate of 10.241 homicides per 100,000
residents. Removing this county lowers the state’s homicide rate from 8.403
to 7.511 per 100,000 residents, a 10.62 percent reduction, and lowers the
county’s homicide rate from eighth to 11th in the nation.
Georgia’s homicide rate is heavily influenced by crime in Atlanta, encom-
passing Fulton and DeKalb Counties. Dropping these two counties (which
have homicide rates of 13.407 and 13.272 per 100,000 residents, respec-
tively) causes the state’s homicide rate to fall from 7.264 to 5.999, a 17.3
percent reduction, and the state’s ranking in Table 2 to fall from 13th to
21st in the nation.
Arkansas’ homicide rate is impacted by Pulaski County, which has 17.199
homicides per 100,000 residents. Removing this county drops the state’s
overall homicide rate from 7.688 to 6.256, a 18.63 percent reduction.
Tennessee is heavily influenced by crime in Memphis and Nashville.
Removing Shelby County (with a homicide rate of 23.424 per 100,000 res-
idents) surrounding Memphis results in a reduction from 7.783 to 5.327
(per 100,000 residents), a 31.56 percent change. Dropping Davidson County
(with a homicide rate of 12.074 per 100,000) surrounding Nashville results
in a reduction from 7.783 to 7.299 (per 100,000 residents), a 6.22 percent
change. Dropping both counties brings down the state’s homicide rate to
4.432 per 100,000 residents, a 43.05 percent reduction, and lowers the
state’s national ranking in Table 2 from ninth to 27th.
Finally, Cook County, Illinois, is another highly influential county. Home
to Chicago, Cook County boasts a homicide rate of 13.99 homicides per
100,000 residents, and dropping it from the state’s overall homicide rate
calculation lowers the state’s rate from 7.746 to 3.476, a 55.1 percent reduc-
tion. (See Chart 3.) This reduction causes the state’s ranking in Table 1 to
plummet from 10th to 32nd in the nation.
It is apparent that some states’ homicide rates are determined heavily by
crime in certain counties. It is thus naïve and nonsensical to make partisan
claims about states’ overall crime rates while completely neglecting how
various localities contribute to these rates.
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Policies, Not COVID

One of the Left’s talking points is that the COVID-19 caused or at least
contributed to the general rise in crime and that the rise in crime started
during the pandemic. There are no reputable studies that prove that crime
increased as a direct result of COVID lockdowns—which makes sense. Many
people across the country were locked down, including in the inner cities
where most crime takes place. What the data do show is that crime, includ-
ing violent crime, was rising in cities with the toxic trio prior to42 the onset
of the pandemic and that the death of George Floyd, which happened in
May 2020, led to a rise in murders and auto theft in key cities.43
But numbers themselves do not begin to tell the whole story of why
crime rates in these homicide hellholes have risen. Starting in 2016, with
the election of the first Soros rogue prosecutor, Kim Foxx, in Chicago, cities
with rogue prosecutors have imposed policies that all—each and every one
of them—inure to the benefit of criminals, as we have detailed in our schol-
arship for the past two years.
Those policies include but are not limited to:

l Refusing to prosecute entire categories of misdemeanor crimes,

including theft, drug possession, shoplifting, receiving stolen property,
breaking and entering, destruction of property, disturbing the peace,
disorderly conduct, resisting arrest, and more.

l Forbidding prosecutors from including sentencing enhancements or

allegations of prior convictions or special circumstances for egregious
crimes or actions.

l Forbidding prosecutors from seeking the death penalty in any case.

l Forbidding prosecutors from seeking life without parole sentences

for any crime.

l Refusing to prosecute violent teenagers in adult court for such crimes

as murder, child abuse, and rape.

l Requiring prosecutors to ask for the release of duly convicted violent

felons, whose appeals have been denied, after these felons have served
as least 15 years of a longer sentence.
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l Prohibiting or limiting prosecutors from asking for bail to ensure the

presence of the defendant at the next court hearing and/or taking into
consideration the defendant’s prior criminal record.

Conclusion

The foregoing policies—and dozens of other pro-criminal, anti-victim

policies—have contributed to the lawlessness across blue cities and the
steep rise in crime rates. To suggest now that Republican elected officials
who have followed different policies have contributed to crime increases
is at best laughable.

Charles D. Stimson is Deputy Director of the Edwin Meese III Center for Legal and Judicial
Studies and Senior Advisor to the President at The Heritage Foundation. He also is a
Senior Fellow and Manager of the National Security Law Program in the Meese Center.
Zack Smith is a Legal Fellow and Manager of the Supreme Court and Appellate Advocacy
Program in the Meese Center. Kevin D. Dayaratna, PhD, is Chief Statistician, Data Scientist,
and Senior Research Fellow in the Center for Data Analysis at The Heritage Foundation.
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Appendix

We utilized 2021 homicide data from County Health Rankings & Road-
maps (CHR&R), a program of the University of Wisconsin Population
Health Institute. CHR&R provides point and interval estimates for coun-
ty-level and state-level homicide rates from 2014–2020 and population
estimates from 2020.
We took point estimates of these rates and county-level population
statistics to compute the raw number of homicides in each county. These
estimates were rounded to the nearest integer to avoid fractional homicides
and subsequently summed to generate an overall pooled estimate of the
state’s raw number of homicides from 2014—2020, which were then divided
by the state’s population to determine an overall state-level homicide rate.
These state-level homicide rates differ slightly from the overall state
homicide rates reported in CHR&R, likely because the authors of the data-
set used a population figure that is different from what is available in the
dataset. Nevertheless, the alternative state rankings presented in Table 1
do not differ appreciably from these rankings using the dataset’s original
homicide rates. Furthermore, these alternative rankings are necessary
for an understanding of particular counties’ impact on overall state-level
homicide rates as examined in this report.
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Endnotes
1. Gavin Newsom@GavinNewsom, Twitter, October 18, 2022, 10:16 AM, https://twitter.com/gavinnewsom/status/1582375031278927872 (accessed
November 2, 2022); Snejana Farberov, “Lefty Philadelphia DA Larry Krasner Says Crime Is Worse in ‘Trump States’ in Fiery Interview,” New York Post,
September 30, 2022, https://nypost.com/2022/09/30/philly-da-larry-krasner-says-crime-worse-in-trump-states/ (accessed November 2, 2022).
2. See William P. Barr, “Rising Crime Rates Are a Policy Choice,” The Wall Street Journal, October 26, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/safe-streets​
-are-a-policy-choice-incapacitation-incarceration-state-federal-prison-violent-crime-1990s-reagan-bush-barr-obama-sentencing-bail-11666785403
(accessed November 2, 222).
3. See Barry Latzer, The Myth of Overpunishment: A Defense of the American Justice System and a Proposal to Reduce Incarceration While Protecting
the Public (New York: Republic Book Publishers, 2022), p. 88.
4. The Washington Post has a comprehensive database of every fatal shooting by an on-duty police officer in the United States since January 1, 2015.
Since its inception, there have been more than 5,000 such shootings (as of October 18, 2022), including 1,695 blacks, 1,135 Hispanics, 3,204 whites,
and 259 others. That represents 41 blacks per million, 29 Hispanics per million, 16 whites per million, and five per million for others. Over 95 percent of
people shot and killed are males, more than 50 percent of whom were between 20 and 40 years old. See The Washington Post, “Fatal Force,” https://​
www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/investigations/police-shootings-database/ (accessed November 2, 2022). Some of the names of those shot
and killed by the police have been household names and rallying cries in the so-called social justice movement in the United States, which started in
earnest in 2014 after the death of Eric Garner in July 2014. Subjected to a choke hold by NYPD Officer Daniel Pantaleo, Garner said “I can’t breathe”
numerous times and later died. His death was classified as a homicide, but the officer was not indicted, and an uproar followed across the country.
A month later, in Ferguson, Missouri, Officer Darren Wilson shot and killed Michael Brown after Brown had resisted arrest, fled, and then attacked
Officer Wilson. Wilson was not charged. After 2014, other blacks shot by police that rose to national attention and fueled racial strife and unrest across
the country included Freddie Gray in Baltimore in 2015; Breonna Taylor in Louisville, Kentucky, in 2020; and George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota,
also in 2020.
5. Democratic mayors, city council members, state legislators, and Democratic Members of Congress have all called for defunding the police in recent
years. The Republican Study Committee has compiled a list of Members of Congress who have called for defunding the police. See Republican Study
Committee, “Looking Back: Democrats Push to Defund the Police,” https://rsc-banks.house.gov/democrats-push-defund-police (accessed November
2, 2022). Eventually, calls to defund the police backfired on the Democrats as it became clear that cutting the size of police departments, especially
in high-crime areas, only harmed the residents of those cities and caused voters, including Democrats, to feel unsafe in their own cities. No doubt
realizing that calling for defunding the police was an albatross around the Democratic Party’s neck, President Joe Biden, during his March 2022 State
of the Union Address to the nation, said, “We should all agree: The answer is not to defund the police. The answer is to FUND the police with the
resources and training they need to protect our communities.” See “Remarks of President Joe Biden—State of the Union Address as Prepared for
Delivery,” The White House, March 1, 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/03/01/remarks-of-president-joe​
-biden-state-of-the-union-address-as-delivered/ (accessed November 2, 2022). Emphasis in original. Despite the President’s rhetoric and attempt at
damage control, the fact is that defunding of police department budgets and repeated calls to defund the police have become a political liability going
into the 2022 midterm elections.
6. See Charles D. Stimson and Zack Smith, “‘Progressive’ Prosecutors Sabotage the Rule of law, Raise Crime Rates, and Ignore Victims,” Heritage
Foundation Legal Memorandum No. 275, October 29, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2020-10/LM275.pdf.
7. See Cheng Cheng and Wei Long, “The Effect of Highly Publicized Police Killings on Policing: Evidence from Large U.S. Cities,” Journal of Public
Economics, Vol. 206 (February 2022), https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0047272721001936 (accessed November 2, 2022).
See also Deepak Premkumar, “Public Scrutiny, Police Behavior, and Crime Consequences: Evidence from High-Profile Police Killings,” April 26, 2022,
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3715223 (accessed November 2, 2022), which found that after police killings that generate
significant public attention, officers reduce their efforts and crime increases; Heather Mac Donald, The War on Cops: How the New Attack on Law and
Order Makes Everyone Less Safe (New York: Encounter Books, 2016), wherein Mac Donald coins the phrase “Ferguson Effect” to describe how and why
police departments across the country withdrew from proactive policing in the aftermath of the death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, in 2014;
and Robert VerBruggen, “Yes, There’s a Ferguson Effect,” The American Conservative, May 23, 2016, https://www.theamericanconservative.com/yes​
-theres-a-ferguson-effect/ (accessed November 2, 2022).
8. See Kylie Murdock and Jim Kessler, “The Red State Murder Problem,” Third Way Report, March 15, 2022, http://thirdway.imgix.net/pdfs/the-red-state​
-murder-problem.pdf (accessed November 2, 2022).
9. Ibid., p. 2.
10. Ibid.
11. See Dana Milbank, “It’s Just Murder Living in a Red State,” The Washington Post, October 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022​
/10/11/republican-states-crime-rates-tuberville/ (accessed November 2, 2022).
12. See Jim Kessler, “We Have a Murder Problem in America—Especially in Red States,” The Hill, April 20, 2022 https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign​
/3274797-we-have-a-murder-problem-in-america-especially-in-red-states/ (accessed November 2, 2022).
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13. See Inside Edition Staff, “Red States Have Higher Murder Rates Than Blue States, According to New Study,” Inside Edition, April 6, 2022, https://www​
.insideedition.com/red-states-have-higher-murder-rates-than-blue-states-according-to-new-study-74227 (accessed November 2, 2022).
14. See Jill Terreri Ramos, “In Claim About Crime in Other States, Context Needed,” Poynter Institute, PolitiFact, April 16, 2022 https://www.politifact.com​
/factchecks/2022/apr/16/crystal-peoples-stokes/claim-about-crime-other-states-context-needed/ (accessed November 2, 2022).
15. See Michael Daly, “McCarthy Blames Crime on Dems While It Rages in His GOP-Led Hometown,” The Daily Beast, updated June 11, 2022, https://www​
.thedailybeast.com/kevin-mccarthy-blames-crime-on-dems-while-it-rages-in-his-gop-led-hometown (accessed November 2, 2022).
16. See Jason McGahan, “Why You’re Far More Likely to Be Murdered in Fresno or Bakersfield than San Francisco or L.A., Los Angeles Magazine, March 31,
2022, https://www.lamag.com/citythinkblog/why-youre-far-more-likely-to-be-murdered-in-fresno-or-bakersfield-than-san-fran-and-l-a/ (accessed
November 2, 2022).
17. See Gil Duran, “Let’s Obliterate the Myth that Republicans Are Solving Crime and Overdoses,” San Francisco Examiner, updated June 2, 2022 https://​
www.sfexaminer.com/our_sections/forum/opinion/let-s-obliterate-the-myth-that-republicans-are-solving-crime-and-overdoses/article_f34ecfac​
-5f70-5682-8a27-49d650a14405.html (accessed November 2, 2022).
18. See Sahil Kapur and Jon Schuppe, “‘Overall Crime Decreased in 2020 in the U.S.,’ Report Finds,” NBC News, September 12, 2021, https://www​
.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/overall-crime-decreased-2020-united-states-report-finds-n1278938 (accessed November 2, 2022).
19. See Cory Allen Heidelberger, “Trump States Have Higher Murder Rates; South Dakota Leads Region in Chance of Death at Neighbors’ Hands,” Dakota
Free Press, March 19, 2022, https://dakotafreepress.com/2022/03/19/trump-states-have-higher-murder-rates-south-dakota-leads-region-in​
-chance-of-death-at-neighbors-hands/ (accessed November 2, 2022). See also Jonathan Capehart, “The Real Story About Crime Republicans Won’t
Tell You,” The Washington Post, March 22, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/22/crime-murder-rates-republican-cities/
(accessed November 2, 2022); Joel Mathis, “Democrats Can’t Escape Reality. They Shouldn’t Try,” The Week, April 5, 2022, https://theweek.com/us​
/1012196/white-house-officials-and-left-wing-media-critics-convinced-themselves-that-the-media (accessed November 2, 2022); Steven Greenhut,
“Republicans Are Learning That Crime Data Isn’t So Simple,” Pasadena Star-News, September 18, 2022, https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/2022​
/09/18/republicans-are-learning-that-crime-data-isnt-so-simple/ (accessed November 2, 2022); Jeff Rouner, “Red States Have More Murders
Than Blue States,” Reform Austin, April 11, 2022, https://www.reformaustin.org/public-safety/red-states-have-more-murders-than-blue-states/
(accessed November 2, 2022); and Jacob Bliss, “Democrats Aim to Flip Crime Script, Issue Report Blaming Red States for Wave,” Breitbart, March 16,
2022, https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/03/16/democrats-aim-to-flip-crime-script-issue-report-blaming-red-states-for-wave/ (accessed
November 2, 2022).
20. See Paul Krugman, “Crime: Red Delusions About Purple Reality,” The New York Times, October 24, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/24​
/opinion/rising-crime-democrats.html (accessed November 2, 2022).
21. See Rafael A. Mangual, “Dems’ Shameless Ploy to Blame Crime Rise on ‘Red States,’” New York Post, October 11, 2022, https://nypost.com/2022​
/10/11/dems-shameless-ploy-to-blame-crime-rise-on-red-states/ (accessed November 2, 2022), and “Crime in American Cities, and Myth of ‘Red
State Murder Problem,’ with Rafael Mangual and Jennifer Castro,” The Megyn Kelly Show, Episode 410, October 12, 2022, https://player.fm/series/the​
-megyn-kelly-show/crime-in-american-cities-and-myth-of-red-state-murder-problem-with-rafael-mangual-and-jennifer-castro-ep-410 (accessed
November 2, 2022).
22. On July 22, 2022, Marilyn Mosby was defeated in the primary for the office of State’s Attorney for the City of Baltimore. She lost to former Assistant
State’s Attorney Ivan Bates but remains in office until the outcome of the general election is known and her successor is sworn into office.
23. San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin was recalled in a special election on June 8, 2022. San Francisco Mayor London Breed appointed
Assistant District Attorney Brooke Jenkins to serve as District Attorney for the remainder of Boudin’s term.
24. Murdock and Kessler, “The Red State Murder Problem,”
25. County Health Rankings & Roadmaps, https://www.countyhealthrankings.org/ (accessed November 2, 2022).
26. For full details of our methodology, see Appendix, infra.
27. The members of the New Orleans City Council include Helena Moreno, Jean Paul Morell, Joe Giarrusso, Lesli Harris, Freddie King III, Eugene Green and
Oliver Thomas.
28. The members of the Hinds County Board of Supervisors include Robert Graham, David L. Archie, Credell Calhoun, Vern O. Gavin, and Bobby McGowan.
29. The members of the Jackson County Board of Supervisors include Barry Cumbest (R); Ennit Morris (D); Ken Taylor (R); Troy Ross (R); and Randy
Bosarge (R).
30. The members of the Jefferson County Board of Commissioners include Lashunda Scales (D); Sheila Tyson (D); James A. Stephens (R); Joe Knight (R);
and Steve Ammons (R).
31. The members of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners include Daniel Harris, Jr. (D); Carmen Moore-Zeigler (R); Ronda M. Walker (R);
Isaiah Sankley (D); and Doug Singleton (R).
32. The members of the Saint Louis County Council include Rita Heard Days (D); Kelli Dunaway (D); Tim Fitch (R); Shalonda D. Webb (D); Lisa Clancy (D);
Ernie Trakas (R); and Mark Harder (R).
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33. The Democrat members of the Richland County Council are Derrek Pugh, Yvonne McBride, Paul Livingston, Allison Terracio, Gretchen Barron, Overture
Walker, Jesica Mackey, Cheryl D. English, and Chakisse Newton. The two Republicans are Bill Malinowski and Joe Walker III.
34. The members of the Lexington County Council include Scotty Whetstone, Paul Lawrence Brigham, Jr., Darrell Hudson, Debra A. Summers, Gene Jones,
Charlene Wessinger, Beth A. Carrigg, Glen M. Conwell, and M. Todd Cullum.
35. The members of the Bernalillo County Board of Commissioners include Debbie O’Malley (D); Steven Michael Quezada (D); Adriann Barboa (D); Walt
Benson (R); and Charlene Pyskoty (D).
36. The members of the Shelby County Board of Commissioners include Amber Mills (R); David C. Bradford Jr. (R); Mick Wright (R); Brandon C. Morrison
(R); Charlie A. Caswell, Jr. (D); Henri E. Brooks (D); Mickell M. Lowery (D); Dr. Edmund Ford Jr. (D); Britney Thornton (D); Miska Clay-Bibbs (D); Erika
Sugarmon (D); and Michael Whaley (D).
37. The members of the Cook County Board of Commissioners include Democrats Brandon Johnson, Dennis Deer, Bill Lowry, Stanley Moore, Deborah
Simms, Donna Miller, Alma E. Anaya, Luis Arroyo Jr., Bridget Gainer, John P. Daley, Bridget Degnen, Larry Suffredin, Scott R. Britton, Kevin B. Morrison,
and Frank J. Aguilar. The two Republicans are Peter N. Silvestri and Sean M. Morrison.
38. The Pulaski County Quorum Court includes Democrats Tyler Denton, Kathy Lewison, Julie Blackwood, Lillie McMullen, Donna Massey, Teresa Coney,
Curtis Keith, Judy Green, and Staci Medlock. Republican members include Doug Reed, Aaron Robinson, Luke McCoy, Phil Stowers, and Paul Eliot. The
seat in District 10 is currently vacant.
39. The members of the DeKalb County Board of Commissioners include Robert Patrick, Jeff Rader, Larry Johnson, Steve Bradshaw, Mereda Davis Johnson,
Ted Terry, and Lorraine Cochran-Johnson. All are Democrats.
40. Democrat members of the Fulton County Board of Commissioners include Democrats Robb Pitts, Natalie Hall, Marvin S. Arrington, Jr., and Khadijah
Abdur-Rahman. Republican members include Liz Hausmann, Bob Ellis, and Lee Morris.
41. While we recognize that the District of Columbia is not a state, for the sake of simplicity and clarity and because of the District’s unique constitutional
status and the ongoing debate about whether it should be a state, we include it here. Neither we nor The Heritage Foundation endorse the District of
Columbia’s becoming a state, especially by a simple act of Congress. See Zack Smith, “Does D.C. Statehood Require a Constitutional Amendment?: You
Better Believe It,” Ohio State Law Journal Online, Vol. 83 (2022), pp. 17–28, https://kb.osu.edu/bitstream/handle/1811/101092/OSLJ_Online_V83_017​
.pdf?sequence=1 (accessed November 2, 2022).
42. See Stimson and Smith, “‘Progressive’ Prosecutors Sabotage the Rule of Law, Raise Crime Rates, and Ignore Victims.” See also The Heritage
Foundation’s Daily Signal series on rogue prosecutors (The Heritage Foundation, “Rogue Prosecutors,” https://www.heritage.org/rogue-prosecutors),
which outlines the rising crime rates for each rogue prosecutor immediately after the elections and imposition of that prosecutor’s pro-criminal, anti-
victim policies.
43. See Mikaela Meyer, Ahmed Hassafy, Gina Lewis, Prasun Shrestha, Amelia M. Haviland, and Daniel S. Nagin, “Changes in Crime Rates During the
COVID-19 Pandemic,” Statistics and Public Policy, Vol. 9, No. 1 (2022), pp. 97–109, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/2330443X.2022​
.2071369?needAccess=true (accessed November 2, 2022). Also, around the world, urban crime fell by over a third during the COVID-19 shutdowns,
as evidenced by a University of Cambridge study. Significantly, the study found that theft and robbery almost halved on average in 27 cities across
23 countries in Europe, the Americas, Asia, and the Middle East. See Amy E. Nivette, Renee Zahnow, Raul Aguilar, Andri Ahven, Shai Amram, Barak
Ariel, María José Arosemena Burbano, Roberta Astolfi, Dirk Baier, Hyung-Min Bark, Joris E. H. Beijers, Marcelo Bergman, Gregory Breetzke, I. Alberto
Concha-Eastman, Sophie Curtis-Ham, Ryan Davenport, Carlos Díaz, Diego Fleitas, Manne Gerell, Kwang-Ho Jang, Juha Kääriäinen, Tapio Lappi-
Seppälä, Woon-Sik Lim, Rosa Loureiro Revilla, Lorraine Mazerolle, Gorazd Meško, Noemí Pereda, Maria F. T. Peres, Rubén Poblete-Cazenave, Simon
Rose, Robert Svensson, Nico Trajtenberg, Tanja van der Lippe, Joran Veldkamp, Carlos J. Vilalta Perdomo , and Manuel P. Eisner, “A Global Analysis of
the Impact of COVID-19 Stay-at-Home Restrictions on Crime,” Nature Human Behaviour, Vol. 5 (July 2021), pp. 868–877, https://www.nature.com​
/articles/s41562-021-01139-z (accessed November 2, 2022) . See also Heather Mac Donald, “A New Crime Wave—and What to Do About It,” City
Journal, Special Issue: New York City: Reborn, 2021, https://www.city-journal.org/new-york-city-violence-surging (accessed November 2, 2022).