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2023-306 Winter Storm Elliott After-Action Public Report-FNL2
2023-306 Winter Storm Elliott After-Action Public Report-FNL2
Action
Report Winter
Storm
Elliott
Winter Storm Elliott After-Action Report
Contents
1. Preface
2. TVA Background
3. Winter Storm Elliott Background
4. What Happened
5. What We Learned
6. What We Are Doing
7. Looking Forward
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Tennessee Valley Authority Winter Storm Elliott After-Action Report
Preface
Every day, businesses are confronted with challenges that test the operational abilities of an organization and
the fortitude of all involved. One of the hallmarks of successful organizations is the ability to learn from these
events … to adapt and improve.
Reliable and secure energy is essential for families and businesses. It’s what you expect and deserve. At TVA, we
take great pride in providing the 10 million people of the Tennessee Valley region with reliable energy 24/7.
We fell short of your expectations during Winter Storm Elliott. While we planned and prepared for this event, the
storm’s speed and intensity exceeded our efforts.
Immediately following the storm, we proactively initiated an After-Action Technical Team to conduct a thorough
review of what happened and why. This team included subject matter experts from areas across our organization.
We also asked employees to provide us with immediate recommendations based on the challenges they
encountered during the storm.
Working with our 153 local power companies (LPCs) across the seven-state region we serve, we formed a
Customer Engagement Team to provide ongoing feedback to our review process. And we engaged a
Blue Ribbon Commission to provide independent perspectives and insights.
We took these steps – first and foremost – because it’s the right thing to do. As a learning organization, we are
committed to understanding and sharing lessons learned and – more importantly – implementing actions to ensure
we are better prepared to manage significant events in the future.
This report highlights the findings from the events surrounding Winter Storm Elliott, recommendations for
improvement, and actions associated with each recommendation.
The strength and resilience of our system was tested during Winter Storm Elliott, and we will learn, adapt,
and improve.
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Tennessee Valley Authority Winter Storm Elliott After-Action Report
TVA
Background
Nine decades ago, TVA was created with a clear Today, TVA is the largest public power provider in
mission to benefit the public good. TVA was established the United States and is one of the nation’s largest
with the innovative concept of managing the vast electricity generators. TVA supplies the energy that
resources of the Tennessee Valley as an integrated approximately 10 million people and over 750,000
system across jurisdictional boundaries and to help businesses across the Tennessee Valley region rely
lift the seven-state Tennessee Valley region from the on every day.
depths of the Great Depression.
TVA is not doing this alone. The strength of partnership
Since day one, a hallmark of TVA has been innovation, cannot be overstated. We are leveraging expertise
as we built dams to control flooding and constructed and support from customer partnerships, industry
transmission infrastructure to bring the first electric partnerships, and stakeholder groups to help forge a
lights to rural communities and farms. path forward for the region that benefits all.
TVA’s unique, longstanding mission focuses on: Companies choose to locate to the Tennessee Valley
Energy: affordable, reliable, resilient and clean region because of the affordable, reliable, resilient, and
clean energy TVA and Local Power Companies (LPCs)
Environmental Stewardship: protecting and provide, and we want to ensure we can continue to
preserving public lands and water support those economic opportunities for our region.
Economic Development: attracting investment In FY 2022 TVA helped create 26,500 new jobs and
and creating jobs retain 40,000 jobs.
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Tennessee Valley Authority Winter Storm Elliott After-Action Report
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Tennessee Valley Authority Winter Storm Elliott After-Action Report
The National Weather Service referred to Winter Storm Elliott On Friday, Dec. 23, the morning
as a “once-in-a-generation storm,” which brought record- lows were Nashville 1F, Memphis
breaking cold temperatures and high winds to our region and 1F, Huntsville 3F, Knoxville 4F, and
across the nation. Chattanooga 7F.
The afternoon high was 11F for
Winter Storm Elliott did not take TVA by surprise. TVA the system average, falling to 8F
anticipated and prepared for this event, but the storm’s speed for most of Friday night and early
and intensity exceeded forecasts and TVA’s efforts. Saturday, Dec. 24.
There have not been back-to-
back mornings with system
temperature lows in the single
digits since February 1996.
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Tennessee Valley Authority Winter Storm Elliott After-Action Report
What
Happened
A month prior to the storm, TVA developed and shared starting Thursday, Dec. 22, 2022, at 8 a.m. CDT through In addition, TVA employees worked
the Mid-Term forecast with the Transmission, Nuclear, Monday, Dec. 26, 2022, at 5 p.m. CDT. in extreme weather conditions to
Power Operations, and Facilities Management teams to keep generating units online and
complete the cold weather readiness actions and winter The high winds, heavy rain, and cold temperatures of restore units impacted during
readiness certification process. These certifications Winter Storm Elliott arrived in the TVA service territory the storm. This included placing
were used by generation leadership, planning and real- on December 22. These conditions increased energy additional temporary structures,
time operations to determine energy reserve positions demand beyond what had been forecast, resulting insulation, and heaters around
and inform short-term trading needs. in the highest 24-hour electricity demand supplied in equipment at impacted units. As a
TVA history on December 23 as the speed, intensity, result of their efforts, 14 of the 38
In mid-December, TVA Operations employees began scale and duration of Winter Storm Elliott exceeded the generating units lost were recovered
tracking Winter Storm Elliott, making initial observations design basis for some of TVA’s power plants. In total, 38 and returned to service within 48
a week before it impacted the Tennessee Valley of TVA’s 232 generating units were negatively impacted, hours.
region. Severe weather notifications were issued to mostly due to instrumentation that froze.
internal emergency management employees regularly TVA’s nuclear and hydro assets were
throughout the week leading up to the storm and TVA employees worked around the clock to increase not affected by the extreme weather
multiple business units engaged in preparedness generation to meet the demand, including dispatching due to their plant design and
activities. TVA committed a significant amount of units that had previously not been in service and operated without issue supporting
generation resources ahead of the event to meet executing day-ahead, real-time purchases and energy demand during the event.
predicted demand, and took additional measures emergency purchases.
such as: The storm also challenged
neighboring utilities, limiting power
TVA’s generation plants took extra steps to ensure availability, resulting in energy
readiness.
TVA set multiple energy demand demand exceeding supply being
records during Winter Storm Elliott generated and purchased. For the
TVA’s External Relations team began outreach to On Friday, Dec. 23, highest 24-hour first time in TVA’s 90-year history,
customers and stakeholders. electricity demand supplied in TVA history TVA was forced to implement
– 740 gigawatt-hours. emergency procedures directing
TVA Police & Emergency Management engaged with local power companies to reduce
TVA business units to remind them of the possibility Highest winter peak demand at 7 p.m. power demand that resulted in
of agency-level emergency coordination based on CDT on Friday, Dec. 23 – 33,425 megawatts localized interruptions in order to
storm impact. (third-highest peak demand in TVA history). keep the overall system stable.
On Saturday, Dec. 24, at 1 a.m. CDT,
On Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022, the TVA Reliability highest weekend peak demand in TVA
Coordinator issued a Cold Weather Alert and a history – 31,756 megawatts
Conservative Operations Alert for the entire TVA system
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Tennessee Valley Authority Winter Storm Elliott After-Action Report
Event Timeline
On Thursday, Dec. 22, the energy consumption forecast for the next day was 31,163 MW. To meet this demand,
TVA would need about 90% of TVA’s owned and contracted power production available.
On Friday, Dec. 23, between 1 a.m. – 6 a.m. CDT, temperatures were dropping rapidly as the BA monitored real
time electricity consumption, which resulted in a significant increase in the projected demand (beyond what was
SATURDAY, DEC. 24 SPECIFICS:
forecast). To meet that demand, the BA needed about 97% of TVA’s available owned and contracted power.
Following the peak electricity demand on Friday, Dec. At 4:51 a.m. CDT, because of continuing high
The rapid drop in temperature and other weather-related conditions also caused freezing issues at some power
23, the BA began preparing for Saturday, Dec. 24. energy demand and generation challenges, TVA
generating facilities, which resulted in the loss of approximately 20% of the available energy production. As a
Nineteen percent of the available TVA owned and directed local power companies to reduce energy
result, TVA needed about 17% more power than was available.
contracted power production remained out of service demand by 5%.
due to the freezing issues, and industrial customer
To maintain system stability and address the deficit, the BA acquired 3% market power, called on industrial
consumption remained reduced by 5%. The forecast At 5:12 a.m. CDT, this was increased to 10%. TVA
customers who participate in interruptibles programs interruptibles programs to reduce demand, resulting in
of energy consumption projected a need for 100% of also instructed its industrial customers and direct
5% reduction in consumption, and finally called on LPCs to reduce their load by 5%. After a little more than two
the available TVA owned and contracted power plus an serve customers to reduce demand.
hours, several affected power plants had recovered and returned to service and the BA ended the call for LPCs
extra 6%.
to reduce consumption.
At 10:30 a.m. CDT – 5 hours and 39 minutes later –
The BA acquired 20% market power to cover the emergency procedures to reduce energy demand
SPECIFICS:
forecast and provide some contingency. Early in the were lifted. Energy demand had been reduced by
morning of Saturday, Dec. 24, off-system purchases approximately 4,800 MW.
At 4:30 a.m. CDT, demand for power exceeded the forecast by nearly 1,500 MW while TVA lost generation
were cut off by other power systems because of
from multiple units (coal, gas, and independent power producers).
emergency conditions on their own systems. TVA was Winter Storm Elliott was challenging, not only to TVA
forced to direct local power companies to reduce power but to all the local power companies in the Valley region
At 4:48 a.m. CDT, TVA called on industries and interruptible contracts to reduce energy demand, resulting
consumption by 5% and then by 10%. as well as utilities around the eastern United States.
in a reduction of demand by 1,612 MW (approximately 5% of system demand).
Because of the active participation and collaboration
Five and a half hours later, the BA ended the call for of many, including TVA, industrial customers, and
By 9:00 a.m. CDT, TVA had lost 6,705 MW of generation from coal, combined cycle gas, and independent
LPCs to reduce consumption. residents, as well as decisive and deliberate actions by
power producers.
153 local power companies across seven states, the
grid remained stable and more serious consequences
At 9:31 a.m. CDT, TVA initiated emergency procedures, directing 153 local power companies to reduce
were avoided.
energy demand by 5%.
Figure 1 – TVA’s Emergency Load Curtailment Program (ELCP)
At 11:43 a.m. CDT, 2 hours and 12 minutes later – emergency procedures to reduce energy demand were
lifted. Energy demand had been reduced by approximately 2,900 MW. Preventative Reductions Firm Load Curtailment
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Tennessee Valley Authority Winter Storm Elliott After-Action Report
Immediately following Winter Storm Figure 2 – Dec. 22 Plan to Dec. 23 Peak Hour 9 a.m.
Elliott, TVA asked employees to
capture lessons learned. More than
250 actions were captured and
completed by the end of January.
Emergency Management
Processes and Procedures have
also been evaluated and updated
to improve internal coordination,
communication, and preparedness.
These updates are designed to
clarify triggering events and better
define roles and responsibilities.
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Tennessee Valley Authority Winter Storm Elliott After-Action Report
What We
Learned
Following Winter Storm Elliott, TVA immediately took Customer Engagement Team – A team engaging with The review looked at five main categories or activities across the agency and the response of each to the storm:
steps to understand what happened and why and to key customer leaders to gather input and feedback
draw lessons from the event through initiating a formal related to TVA actions taken before, during and after Energy Supply Emergency Protocols
After-Action Technical Review. As part of this effort, Winter Storm Elliott. Members include: Like most utilities, TVA has a generation plan to meet TVA, Tennessee Valley Public Power Association,
TVA engaged industry experts and customers for input Doug Peters, Tennessee Valley Public Power customer load requirements through a mixture of and local power companies maintain emergency
and feedback, incorporated independent oversight Association TVA-owned generation as well as market purchases. load curtailment procedures designed to ensure
and expertise, and committed to share findings and Rob Hoskins, Tennessee Valley Industrial Committee In the event TVA were to experience higher-than- the stability of the grid even in extreme events. In
progress as part of TVA’s commitment to transparency. John Bowers, Pickwick Electric Cooperative (TVPPA forecast demand, TVA could make up for that addition, several TVA business units may implement
Operations Coordination Advisory Group Chair) shortfall by buying energy and capacity from the Emergency Operations Centers (EOCs) to align key
TVA’s After-Action Reviews included: David Wade, EPB of Chattanooga energy markets. personnel to support a specific event. Depending
Doug McGowen and Alonzo Weaver, Memphis on the magnitude of the event, TVA’s enterprise
Blue Ribbon Commission – A panel of experts In addition, prior to the winter and summer seasons, leadership team also may direct the activation of the
Light, Gas and Water
charged with the comprehensive review of actions each generating plant must certify that it has Agency Coordination Center.
Alan Gates, Pennyrile Rural Electric Cooperative
taken before and after Winter Storm Elliott to provide completed the necessary checks and preventive
Marlin Williams, North East Mississippi Electric
independent perspectives to TVA leadership. maintenance activities to support cold or hot Customer and Stakeholder Engagement
Power Association (TVPPA Communications Advisory
Group Chair) weather operations. Nuclear plants have a similar Communication during an emergency event is
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Tennessee Valley Authority Winter Storm Elliott After-Action Report
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Tennessee Valley Authority Winter Storm Elliott After-Action Report
What We
Capacity
Recommendation 1: Establish documented attributes
Strategic Considerations
and guidelines for capacity related to external sources.
Are Doing
TVA’s After-Action Technical teams identified key
[Nearing Completion]
strategic considerations to inform decisions over
the long term, which cover potential changes to the
Recommendation 2: Define risks associated with non-
approach or execution of TVA’s strategy that could help
capacity products. [In Progress]
support an improved response to future hazards. These
were reviewed by TVA’s Enterprise Leadership Team,
Based on TVA’s review the team identified a number of near- and medium-term actions to address the drivers and EMERGENCY PROTOCOLS the Customer Engagement Team and the Blue-Ribbon
improvement opportunities. While TVA teams have already started addressing some of the actions, others are Commission. These Strategic Considerations include:
being planned to ensure completion in the coming months. Recommendation 1: Develop and update procedures
and documentation used to implement and execute Continue assessing risks in capacity planning.
Emergency Operations Centers and the Agency • Implications of extreme weather on capacity
ENERGY SUPPLY Energy Market Purchases Coordination Center, including triggers and checklists. planning and operational preparation
Recommendation 1: Establish process(es) to analyze [In Progress]
Site Resiliency and communicate market liquidity risks in seasonal and • Market purchase risks for long-term and short-
Recommendation 1: Conduct assessments and 10-day horizons. [In Progress] term capacity needs to support load growth
inspections to develop prioritized, site-specific Recommendation 2: Improve crisis management
(energy security and resiliency)
improvement plans to address gaps in design basis. technology, content, and emergency activation drills.
Recommendation 2: Redesign Power Supply Update [In Progress] • Fuel resiliency and redundancy
[In Progress] Report (PSUD) to better communicate market reliance
risks (capacity position, net system position, risk based • Qualities and criteria for generation resources to
Recommendation 2: Execute maintenance or Recommendation 3: Improve existing and develop be included as capacity in resource plans
on purchases). [Nearing Completion] new agency-wide emergency and crisis management
upgrades for existing assets, in-flight projects, and
training. [In Progress] • Implications of continued economic development,
new construction using the revised design basis and
electrification, and available energy efficiency
maintenance standards. [In Progress] REAL-TIME LOAD FORECASTING AND opportunities on load forecasts
Recommendation 4: Update Emergency Load
OPERATIONS
Recommendation 3: Revise maintenance standards Curtailment Program (ELCP) to incorporate lessons Expand power demand response and distribution
to sustain the implemented resiliency improvements. Load Forecasting Tools learned and feedback from LPCs. [Nearing Completion] system control.
[In Progress] Recommendation 1: Evaluate the prioritization and
• Volume of responsive load (demand response
timing of necessary software updates to Itron and Tesla
CUSTOMER AND STAKEHOLDER products)
Recommendation 4: Establish standardized triggers with TVA’s Technology & Information Business Unit.
[In Progress] ENGAGEMENT • Technology improvement for distribution system
and responses (e.g., stepped-up checklists, enhanced
governance, temporary event-based roles) to be automation and control
Recommendation 2: Evaluate options for data Recommendation 1: Develop coordinated response
implemented immediately prior to extreme weather Engage with customers, key stakeholders, and
analytics application to better understand real-time plan, process, and templates. [Nearing Completion]
events to improve cross-organization coordination and communities to identify opportunities to invest
communication. [In Progress] risks and uncertainty in load forecasting during extreme in emergency preparedness, resilience, and
events. [In Progress] Recommendation 2: Ensure training, education,
and maintenance of processes and information for communication technology improvements.
Recommendation 5: Assess existing fuel resiliency
Load Forecast Processes coordination and communication. [Nearing Completion] As TVA includes these considerations in decisions
strategy to identify areas where improvements can be
Recommendation 1: Develop formal process(es) to going forward, we will work closely with our
made to strengthen resiliency readiness model at TVA’s
improve coordination of load forecasting between real- Recommendation 3: Ensure centralized access to customers, stakeholders and policy makers to
sites and within its fuel strategies and capacities.
time operations and Enterprise Forecasting for extreme information, clearly defined roles, and execution of explore and support options that help support the
[In Progress]
events. [In Progress] process. [In Progress] energy needs of the future.
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Tennessee Valley Authority Winter Storm Elliott After-Action Report
Looking
Forward
At TVA, we are committed to delivering energy that is Here’s our plan of how to help meet the region’s
affordable, reliable, resilient, and clean. As people’s growing capacity, with the goal of always providing the
reliance on electricity continues to grow, so does the energy security people can rely on:
critical role it plays in people’s lives.
Fiscal Year 2014 and 2022, TVA invested $18 billion in
Our region is a great place to live and work. Economic capacity expansion and base capital, including about
development, combined with overall population growth, $1 billion a year, to maintain existing assets.
is driving energy demand. After nearly a decade of flat
growth, our seven-state region is growing at six times Between 2023 and 2027, TVA will invest $12 billion
the national average – resulting in a nearly 3% increase for capacity expansion and base capital.
in power demand from 2019 to 2022.
We are building about 3,800 MW of new generation,
TVA is aggressively working to meet this challenge by including combustion turbines, solar projects,
investing in new generation and infrastructure. The combined-cycle natural gas, and energy storage.
region’s ability to continue to thrive – to attract new jobs
and investments – requires clean, sustainable energy. • 750 MWs: Simple cycle CTs at Colbert
(3 – 250 MWs) – Late 2023
By the end of the decade, TVA anticipates adding • 750 MWs: Simple cycle CTs at Paradise
10,000 to 14,000 megawatts of new generation to meet (3 – 250 MWs – Late 2023
that demand. Today, we are building 3,800 megawatts • 1,500 MWs: Combined cycle at Cumberland –
of new generation, including solar energy, energy Late 2026
storage, combustion turbines, and combined-cycle
• 500 MWs: Peaking aero-derivative CTs at
natural gas. We are also investing in infrastructure,
Johnsonville – Late 2024
enhancing our transmission system and building a We are investing in our current assets to ensure they As we work to address these challenges, the strength
state-of-the-art System Operations Center in Meigs • 200 MWs: Solar at Lawrence County – Late 2027
are running as effectively and efficiently as possible – of our partnerships cannot be overstated. Key partners
County, Tennessee. • 20 MWs: Battery at Vonore – Late 2023 that we’re getting every megawatt we can. include our 153 local power companies, direct serve
• 100 MWs: Shawnee Solar* – Late 2028 customers, elected officials, industry partners,
Communities and businesses alike benefit from *Pending environmental reviews We are evaluating responses to the 5,000 MW carbon- communities, and more. Working together, we will
affordable, reliable, resilient, and clean energy. free RFP and expect to make selections this summer. ensure our region continues to have energy security,
We are committed to delivering that energy today which includes sustainable energy solutions, and
and tomorrow. We have 1,000 MW of new supply contracts in place economic opportunities for generations to come.
since Winter Storm Elliott.
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Tennessee Valley Authority
Appendix
After Action Findings
Finding Type
Energy Supply
Rain followed by extreme cold weather and wind created an environment that was beyond design basis for
Driver
TVA generating sites, causing some units to trip offline creating a generation deficiency
Due to the regional nature of the weather event, energy market purchases were curtailed, contributing to the
Driver
generation deficiency
Gas pipeline communication, pressure alignment, and troubleshooting could be improved to enhance TVA’s Improvement
resiliency to future extreme weather events Opportunity
TVA’s principal carbon-free assets (nuclear and hydro units) were not negatively impacted by the Event
Strength
despite the extreme cold weather that impacted other generation technologies
Sites remained focused on employee safety during the Event and were able to successfully perform all duties
Strength
without incident during the Event
Real-Time Load Forecasting and Operations
Operational/real-time industry load forecasting tools did not accurately predict the load and potential risks Improvement
experienced during Winter Storm Elliott Opportunity
Strategic
Assess risks in capacity planning
Consideration
The Reserve Sharing Agreement with Louisville Gas & Electric/Kentucky Utilities functioned as designed Strength
Emergency Protocols
TVA’s Transmission and Operations Center executed the ELCP as designed Strength
Across the Agency, there were opportunities for better coordination and implementation of emergency Improvement
procedures and protocols Opportunity
Local Power Companies provided the needed load reductions when called upon to support grid reliability Strength
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400 W. Summit Hill Drive
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2023-306 0523