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Zhang Et Al. 2022
Zhang Et Al. 2022
A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Accurately quantifying and assessing the flood risks is critical for flood hazard mitigation and prevention. This
Bottom-up hazard vulnerability study proposed a new integrated flood risk assessment framework to map flood risk, hazard and vulnerability by
Coupled hydrological-hydraulic model coupling the HEC-HMS hydrological model, the HEC-RAS 1D and 2D hydraulic models, and a bottom-up hazard
Flood frequency analysis
vulnerability analysis. The Old Brahmaputra River floodplain of Bangladesh, a flood-prone region, was chosen as
Flood risk assessment
Old Brahmaputra River floodplain
a case study. The coupled hydrological-hydraulic model shows a comparable robust performance in both cali
bration and validation periods with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient = 0.93 (0.81), coefficient of determi
nation = 0.95 (0.89), and percent bias = − 1.17% (2.40%) for the calibration (validation) period. Our results
indicate that the assessed risk levels are roughly consistent with the overall property distribution and flood-
hazard potential in the study area. The proposed framework and associated findings are valuable for devel
oping adaptation strategies and early-warning systems to reduce flood impacts in the future.
1. Introduction et al., 2014; Dewan, 2015; Halgamuge and Nirmalathas, 2017; Khaing
et al., 2019). The great devastating impacts of floods in South Asia and
As one of the most common natural disasters around the world, flood the other regions requires a deep understanding of the flood risks in
often destroys the physical environment and damages the local economy these regions.
and societal well-beings (Liu et al., 2016; Tingsanchali, 2012; Leskens Flood risk assessment is a key component of flood risk management
et al., 2014; Parvin et al., 2016; Petit-Boix et al., 2017; Chao et al., 2019; and aims to investigate the high-risk area of flood occurrence (Chen
Sun et al., 2020). Rapid population growth and land-use/land-cover et al., 2011; Yamanashi et al., 2016; Mojaddadi et al., 2017; Zeleňáková
change patterns have increased human vulnerability to floods all over et al., 2019; Rezende et al., 2020). A comprehensive flood risk assess
the world (Forzieri et al., 2020; Schwalm et al., 2013; Zang et al., 2021; ment requires a wide range of analyses such as technical, cost, problem,
Zhang et al., 2021). Floods can lead to mortality, displacement of policy, and loss analyses (Chen et al., 2011). Hence, comprehensive
community, and damage of crops and infrastructure (Parry et al., 2007; flood risk analysis by detecting hazardous and risky areas is an essential
Doocy et al., 2013; Wang et al., 2022; Zhang et al., 2016; Dolatabadi and part of estimating the extent of damages due to flooding (Meyer et al.,
Ahmadzadeh, 2019; Chao et al., 2020). Apparently, flooding is a global 2009; Mojaddadi et al., 2017; Chan et al., 2018; Basturk et al., 2021).
phenomenon; in particular, it has caused devastating consequences in Developing accurate flood risk assessment techniques and improving
South Asia, including Bangladesh, India, Myanmar and Nepal (Leskens our knowledge of flood vulnerability can assist law-makers and
* Corresponding author. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210098, China.
** Corresponding author. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210098, China.
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (K. Zhang), [email protected] (M.H. Shalehy).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105279
Received 5 August 2021; Received in revised form 13 November 2021; Accepted 7 December 2021
Available online 16 December 2021
1364-8152/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
K. Zhang et al. Environmental Modelling and Software 148 (2022) 105279
Fig. 1. (a) Geographical locations of the OBR Watershed, the administrative regions (Upazilas) within or around OBR, and hydrological stations, and (b) the
components of the OBR Watershed divided by the administrative regions.
decision-makers to minimize damages and mortalities (Nasiri et al., Dolatabadi, 2018; Dolatabadi et al., 2020). Flood occurs every year in
2016; Badakhshan et al., 2019). As a result, flood risk assessment serves Bangladesh with the recorded most devastating floods in 1974, 1984,
as an important tool for mitigation and prevention of the flood disasters. 1988, 1998, 2004, 2007, 2015, 2016 and 2017, which caused severe
Recently, remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system damages to people and properties (Dewan, 2013; Biswas et al., 2018;
(GIS) technologies have been used for flood prediction, preparation, Adnan et al., 2019). Old Brahmaputra River (OBR) is a left-bank dis
prevention, and risk assessment around the world (Tehrany et al., 2013; tributary of the Brahmaputra River, and the off-take of OBR is at
Zhang et al., 2019). Most studies applied hydrologic and hydraulic Bahadurabad point. Causes of flood risks in the OBR basin include
models to simulate flood runoff and runoff in low-lying and flood-prone geographic location, geological and geomorphological formation, and
areas (Anselmo et al., 1996; Smithers et al., 1997; Booij, 2005; Mon excessive rainfall during the monsoon, and river siltation. The
tanari et al., 2013; Ahmadisharaf and Kalyanapu, 2019; Nogherotto decreasing trend of the average annual discharge and gradual silting at
et al., 2019). Besides, flood risk can also be assessed with multi-criteria the mouth of OBR is obstructing smooth flow from the Brahmaputra to
analysis of inundation depth generated by hydraulic and hydrologic downstream reaches (Ali, 2010; Noor, 2013; Hossain and Meng, 2020).
models such as the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and multi-attribute Additionally, rapid urbanization of the flood plain has also contributed
utility theory (MAUT) methods (Zhang et al., 2002; Meyer et al., 2009; to the increased magnitude and frequency of floods in recent years. The
Chen et al., 2011). Recently, Ahmadisharaf and Kalyanapu (2019) dramatic change of land use reduces soil water storage capacity and
applied coupled a semi-distributed hydrologic model and a 2D unsteady increases direct surface runoff that can easily form flooding. Considering
hydraulic model to estimate the uncertainty of flood loss in the Swan the above-discussed factors, coupling hydrological model, hydraulic
nanoa River watershed, North Carolina, United States. Besides, Ahma model, and risk assessment model for flood risk assessment can provide
disharaf et al. (2018) represented a generic probabilistic framework that early warning and support the development of flood prevention system
couples a hydrological model with an unsteady hydraulic model to es to relief the impacts of possible flood events in the old Brahmaputra
timate the uncertainty of flood characteristics. Moreover, new advances River Watershed (Tehrany et al., 2013).
in the RS and GIS provide new data and ways to improve the simulation Many studies have been devoted to identifying the prime causes and
accuracy of the coupled hydrological-hydraulic modeling (Grimaldi impacts of floods in Bangladesh (Tingsanchali and Karim, 2005; Carrel
et al., 2016, 2018). Therefore, the coupled hydrological-hydraulic et al., 2010; Bhuiyan and Dutta, 2012; Haque and Jahan, 2015). How
modeling equipped with the RS and GIS provides us a new tool to ever, flood risk assessment using the coupled hydrological-hydraulic
conduct the flood risk assessment. modeling is still unavailable in the OBR basin area of Bangladesh. Be
Application of the HEC-RAS model is gaining popularity for flood sides, a vulnerability analysis by Bottom-up hazard in this region could
routing and flood level forecasting due to its capability to route simple provide guidelines to the decision-makers to estimate the damages
open water floods and produce water level forecasts simultaneously caused by floods each year. This study aims (a) to carry out a flood
(Hicks and Peacock, 2005). The HEC-HMS model is recently applied for frequency analysis of the flood discharge data using selected probability
analyzing flood frequency and flood warning system (Oleyiblo and Li, distributions models (Log-Normal, Log-Pearson Type III and Gumbel),
2010; Halwatura and Najim, 2013). Further, researchers have also (b) to assess flood risk using feature class normalization, and (c) to
started to use the coupled hydrological-hydraulic model for future flood prepare risk map using GIS-based coupled hydrologic-hydraulic (i.e., the
plain mapping as well as risk assessment in different parts of the world Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System
(Van Nguyen et al., 2016; Thakur et al., 2017; van Popering-Verkerk and (HEC-HMS) hydrological model and the Hydrologic Engineering
van Buuren, 2017; Ahmadisharaf et al., 2018; Abdessamed and Abder Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) 1D and 2D hydraulic models)
razak, 2019; Blöschl et al., 2019; Cowles et al., 2019). Clearly, the modeling system. This study provides an integrated framework to assess
coupled hydrological-hydraulic modeling also plays an important role the flood risk and hazard vulnerability analysis in the OBR floodplain
on flood risk assessment. region of Bangladesh.
The ever increasing population, ill-planned infrastructural develop The structure of our study is as follows: Section 2 describes the study
ment, and massive flood control interventions in a floodplain environ area and various datasets; Section 3 introduces the developed method
ment have led to flood disasters becoming more extensive and frequent ological framework, including the flood frequency analysis, the coupled
in recent years (Rahman and Salehin, 2013; Ahmadzadeh and hydrological-hydraulic modeling system, analysis methods for flood
2
K. Zhang et al. Environmental Modelling and Software 148 (2022) 105279
Table 1 of the study area has a length of 138 km, located in northeastern parts of
Summary of datasets used for this study. Bangladesh (Fig. 1(a)) and spans three districts of the Mymensingh Di
Data Type Data Source Location Period vision, i.e., Mymensingh, Jamalpur, and Sherpur, that are further
composed of 13 upazilas (Fig. 1(b)); upazila is a small administrative
Digital Shuttle Radar Bangladesh 2014
Elevation Topography Mission region or known as a sub-district in Bangladesh. OBR originates from the
Model (SRTM) left bank of the Brahmaputra River to the north of Bahadurabad and
(DEM) meets with the Meghna River at Bhairab Bazar. The width of OBR is
Cross-section Bangladesh Water Old Brahmaputra 2005 around 200 m with channel sinuosity of 1.24. Average bed slope of OBR
Bathymetry Development Board River
(BWDB)
is 6 cm/km, expanding to 5–6 m in breadth in many places. The common
Discharge Bangladesh Water Mymensingh 1988–2017 land use types in this region include agriculture land, fallow land, and
Development Board Sadar (instantaneous vegetation. As a distributary of the Brahmaputra River, OBR suffers
(BWDB) Bahadurabad data) seasonal riverine floods. The Jinjirum River, a tributary of OBR, flows
transit 2003–2017 (daily
from the Indo-Bangladesh border and acts as the primary source of dry
data)
Land use and Oak Ridge National Bangladesh 2015 season flow of OBR.
land cover Laboratory (ORNL), Precipitation has a strong seasonality in this watershed. Four
European Space prominent seasons are recognized in Bangladesh, i.e., pre-monsoon
Agency (ESA) (March to May), monsoon or rainy monsoon (June to September),
Water level Bangladesh Water Jamalpur, 1988–2017
Development Board Mymensingh
post-monsoon (October and November), and dry winter season
(BWDB) (December to February) (Ahasan et al., 2010; Mullick et al., 2019). In
Rainfall Bangladesh Mymensingh 2003–2017 Bangladesh, floods frequently occur in the monsoon season, while oc
Meteorological Region casionally excessive rainfall during the pre-monsoon season may also
Department (BMD)
cause flash floods. Inhabitants in this region are mainly dependent on
Pan Bangladesh Mymensingh 2003–2007
evaporation Meteorological Region conventional agricultural production and primarily live along the
Department (BMD) riverbank, increasing the risk of flooding.
Socio- Bangladesh Bureau Jamalpur, 2011 (population),
economic of Statistics (BBS) Sherpur, and 2008 (agriculture), 2.2. Data
indicators Mymensingh 2011 (district
reports)
Precipitation data used in this study were collected from the
Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) (http://datalibrary.bmd.
gov.bd/). Discharge and water level data of 30 years (1988–2017) were
collected from the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB)
(https://www.bwdb.gov.bd/en/). In Bangladesh, discharge data are
usually measured at daily, bi-weekly or monthly interval. The historical
record shows that streamflow at the OBR outlet is decreasing during the
recent years and maximum discharge is around 4290 m3/s that was
recorded in August of 1988. The river bathymetry data at 20 cross-
sections of the OBR were measured in 2005 by BWDB. The Digital
Elevation Model (DEM) data were from the Shuttle Radar Topography
Mission (SRTM) data provided by the United States Geological Survey
(USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/), which are further used to delineate
the river networks, subbasins, and other topographical information.
Global Land Cover Map 2015 with a spatial resolution of 300 m from the
European Space Agency (ESA) (http://maps.elie.ucl.ac.be/CCI/viewer/
download.php) is used to derive the land cover/land use information.
The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Global Hydrologic Soil Map
(https://daac.ornl.gov) is used to derive the soil information. The
derived land use/land cover map is used to determine the Curve
Numbers (CN) for runoff calculation and hydrological analysis. Further,
relevant population census, social and economic data are collected from
the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) (http://www.bbs.gov.bd/) to
assess the socio-economic vulnerability to flooding in the study area.
The sources and other information of these datasets used in this study
Fig. 2. Flowchart of the developed coupled hydrological-hydraulic modeling are summarized in Table 1.
and flood risk assessment framework.
3. Methodology
risk, hazard and vulnerability, and the calibration and validation stra
tegies; Section 4 describes the results; Finally, summary of the main The framework to assess the flood risk developed in this study in
findings and conclusions are given in Section 5. volves several major procedures: pre-process of basic data such as hy
drometeorology, land use/land cover, and DEM data, watershed
2. Study area and data delineation, flood frequency analysis, hydrological-hydraulic modeling,
flood hazard and risk assessment (Fig. 2). Hydrometeorological data
2.1. Study area such as precipitation, discharge, and water level are directly used for
hydrological modeling and flood frequency analysis. Flood frequency
The study area, namely, the Old Brahmaputra River (OBR) Water analysis uses a long-term record of streamflow data to compute the flood
shed, geographically ranges between 24◦ 21′ 6"- 25◦ 40′ 9"N in latitude frequencies of historical flood events and determine a typical flood event
and between 89◦ 45′ 30"- 90◦ 30′ 10"E in longitude. The river main branch for further modeling and risk assessment. The coupled HEC-HMS and
3
K. Zhang et al. Environmental Modelling and Software 148 (2022) 105279
HEC-RAS 1D-2D modeling simulate the hydrological processes and HEC-GeoRAS software and ArcGIS. The monsoon seasons (June–Sep
inundation of the selected typical flood event. The outputs of the tember) of 2004 were selected as calibration periods and the monsoon
coupled HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS 1D-2D model, such as flood depth, season of 2007 as validation periods.
flood velocity, inundated area, and other socio-economic data, including In this study, the HEC-GeoHMS and ArcGIS platforms were used to
population density, educational status, economic conditions, and process the DEM to derive the topographic, land surface, river network,
housing and infrastructure, are used as input for the flood hazard- and geographical data required by the HEC-HMS model. The Soil Con
vulnerability and risk assessment analysis (Fig. 2). servation Service (SCS) Curve Number (CN), unit hydrograph, and
In this advanced integrated method, we coupled the United States Muskingum routing methods were selected for computing runoff gen
Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) HEC-HMS Version 4.3 (https://www. eration, hill-slope flow concentration, and channel routing, respectively.
hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-hms) with the USACE HEC-RAS To verify the reliability and robustness of the HEC-HMS model, we
Version 5.0.3 (https://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-ras) to further divided the simulation periods (2003–2017) into the calibration
do the simulation of the hydrological and hydraulic processes. The HEC- (2003–2006) and validation (2014–2017) periods. The input data for
RAS model is a hydraulic model/software that models the 1-dimensional the HEC-HMS model include the 3-hourly rainfall data and monthly
(1D) and 2-dimensional (2D) hydraulics of water flow through natural evapotranspiration data.
rivers and other channels. The relevant outputs of the HEC-HMS and To evaluate the capability of the model, a set of commonly used
HEC-RAS coupled system are then used as inputs of the Bottom-up goodness of fit indicator, i.e., the coefficient of determination (R2 ), the
Hazard-Vulnerability analysis to quantify flood risk and its components. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and the percentage of deviation from
observed streamflow (PBIAS) were calculated. The R2 metric is an in
3.1. Flood frequency analysis dicator of the strength of the relationship between the observed and
simulated values. When the R2 value is close to 0 or the NSE value is less
In this study, the purpose of the flood frequency analysis is to than or close to 0, the model prediction is considered unacceptable. The
determine the return period/exceedance probability of the historical value of R2 can be calculated by Equation (4):
typical flood events, so that we can conduct flood risk assessment based [∑n ( o )( )]2
on the typical flood events. To this end, three flood frequency proba Q − Qo Qsi − Qs
R2 = ∑n ( i i ) ∑n ( s ) (4)
bility distributions, including the log-normal (LN2), log-Pearson Type III o o 2 s 2
i Qi − Q i Qi − Q
(LP3), and Gumbel (GEV) distributions, were adopted to fit the
streamflow data. Flood frequency analysis was conducted using annual where Qoi is the ith observed value, Qsi is the corresponding ith simulated
maximum series of discharges data of 30 years (1988–2017). The value, Qo is the mean of observed data, Qs is the mean of the simulated
observed annual maximum streamflow discharge for each year of the data, and n is the total number of observations. The Nash-Sutcliffe ef
observation period is selected from a discharge time series to derive ficiency (NSE) value can be calculated by Equation (5):
flood events’ recurrence intervals. The recurrence intervals TR of a given
∑n ( s )2
streamflow discharge in the time series is obtained using the Weibull Q − Qs
formula (Chow et al., 1988; Ehiorobo and Izinyon, 2013): NSE = 1 − ∑ni=1( i )2 (5)
o o
i=1 Qi − Q
n+1
TR = (1) The NSE value ranges from - ∞ to 1, with NSE = 1 as the most op
m
timum value. The optimal value of Percent bias (PBIAS) is 0.0, with low-
where n is the number of years of the observation period, and m is the magnitude values indicating accurate model simulation. Positive values
rank of this given streamflow discharge, which is obtained by arranging indicate underestimation by model, while negative values indicate
the data series in the descending order and assigning the highest value overestimation by model (Gupta et al., 1999). The value of PBIAS can be
with a rank of 1 and the lowest value with a rank of n. calculated by Equation (6):
The corresponding design discharge (QT ) of a given recurrence in ∑n ( o )
Q − Qs ∗100
terval (T) can be computed by Equation (2) (Ghosh and Guchhait, 2016): PBIAS = i=1 ∑ni ( oi) (6)
i=1 Qi
QT = Q + K σ (2)
where PBIAS is the deviation of data being evaluated, expressed as a
where Q is the mean of the discharge data, K is the frequency factor percentage.
corresponding to each return period, and σ is the standard deviation for
the discharge data that is calculated as: 3.3. Flood risk, hazard and vulnerability analysis
√̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
∑
(Q − Q)2 The total risk of flood (Riski ) with a two-dimensional index (i.e.,
σ= (3)
n− 1 hazard and vulnerability) to a given location (i) is assessed by Equations
(7) and (8):
3.2. Coupled hydrological-hydraulic modeling Riski = Hi × Vi (7)
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K. Zhang et al. Environmental Modelling and Software 148 (2022) 105279
Table 2
Description of the parameters, indicators, and weights for vulnerability assess
ment used in this study.
Parameters Weights Indicators Weights
NSE R2
Table 4
Fig. 3. Schematic diagram of the 5x5 conversion matrix from hazard and Summary of frequency analysis of discharge fitted by different distributions (log-
vulnerability to risk level. Pearson type III, log-normal, and Gumbel).
Return Log- Log- Gumbel % Deviation % Deviation
Period TR Pearson normal (GEV) of LN2 from of LP3 form
(Years) Type-III (LN2) GEV GEV
(LP3)
5
K. Zhang et al. Environmental Modelling and Software 148 (2022) 105279
Fig. 6. Map of the predicted inundated extent across the OBR Watershed.
Dj = Wj1 × Di1 + Wj2 × Di2 + Wj3 × Di3 + ……Wjn × Din (11) that the calibrated parameter values of the upperstream subbasins rely
on the calibration results of the downstream subbasins. The third
where Dj is hazard or vulnerability of an individual upazila, Di1 to Din is strategy will make the calibration dependency in a random order.
the hazard or vulnerability indicator for an upazila (j), and W is the However, if all of the three strategies can lead to a similar preformance,
corresponding weight assigned to the individual indicator of that upa it will prove that the model calibration is location-independent.
zila (j).
4. Results and discussions
In this study, the HEC-HMS model was run for a warming-up period
The rainfall-runoff HEC-HMS model was calibrated and validated
of six months prior the continuous simulation to limit the impacts of
using the observed discharge at the Mymensingh and Jamalpur stations
uncertainty in the manually assigned initial conditions. The HEC-HMS
of the OBR Watershed. The coupled hydrological-hydraulic model was
model was calibrated and validated using three different calibration
calibrated for 2004 and validated for 2007 for both of these stations. As
strategies. We chose the three different strategies to assess whether the
shown in Fig. 4, the simulated flows agree well with the observed values
optimized model parameters are location-dependent and to avoid the
for both calibration and validation periods at the Mymensingh outlet.
selection of the localized parameter values. The first strategy is to cali
Similarly, the simulated water level at the Jamalpur point also matches
brate the model parameters subbasin-wise from upstream to down
very well with the observations during both calibration and validation
stream. The second strategy is to calibrate the model parameters
periods (Fig. 5).
subbasin-wise from downstream to upstream. The third strategy is to
As mentioned above, the HEC-HMS model was calibrated using three
calibrate the model parameters subbasin-wise using a random order. In
calibration strategies. First, model shows trivial difference between the
theory, the first strategy will cause that the calibrated parameter values
results using the three calibration strategies indicated by the close NSE
of the downstream subbasins are dependent on the calibrated values of
values (0.795–0.798 and 0.665–0.674 for calibration and validation,
the upperstream subbasins. In constrast, the second strategy will lead to
6
K. Zhang et al. Environmental Modelling and Software 148 (2022) 105279
7
K. Zhang et al. Environmental Modelling and Software 148 (2022) 105279
Table 5
Summary of the scores and ranks of hazard and vulnerability, the risk value, and the risk level of different upazila within the Old Brahmaputra River Watershed.
Upazila Name Hazard Score Vulnerability Score Hazard Rank Vulnerab. Rank Risk Risk Level
univariate probability distribution functions are usually used to estimate joint probability among multiple physical processes, which will lead to
the occurrence probability or magnitude of the flood peak or volume in a underestimation of the associated occurring probability (Fiorentino
particular region in flood frequency analysis (Zhang et al., 2018). To et al., 2011; Brunner et al., 2016).
more accurately estimate the probability of flooding, one needs to know
not only the high and extreme values of each variable but also the 4.3. Risk and hazard analysis
likelihood of their coinciding (Brunner et al., 2017). The main issue of
the univariate models is their difficulties in capturing the underlying Based on our flood risk assessment, we derived the maps of hazard
8
K. Zhang et al. Environmental Modelling and Software 148 (2022) 105279
score, vulnerability score, and risk level for the whole region (Fig. 7). 5. Conclusions
Similar to the spatial pattern of the simulated inundation map (Fig. 6),
the hazard level generally increases from the upstream (northwest) to This study provides a framework for assessing flood risk based on the
the downstream (southeast) (Fig. 7(a)). The upazilas with higher hazard coupled hydrological-hydraulic modeling and bottom-up hazard-
levels are generally located in the lowland areas and along the OBR vulnerability analysis for the Old Brahmaputra River Watershed. Our
River (Fig. 7(a)). For the vulnerability, the upazilas that are most study finds that most of the flooding areas have a water depth greater
vulnerable to floods are also located in the downstream areas (Fig. 7(b)). than 0.30 m (Figs. 6 and 8). The area under cultivation has a flood depth
These observations are in good agreement with a previous study by Gain of more than 3.6 m, implying a significant impact on agriculture due to
et al. (2013), which also found that the lower part of the Brahmaputra the flooding and livelihood (Fig. 8). Approximately 46.48% of this re
river has a high flood vulnerability. This spatial pattern of hazard and gion will be under hazardous conditions given a flood event with a
vulnerability analyses is mainly related with the spatial distributions of recurrence interval of 15.50 years. Our results also indicate that the
population, economy, livelihood, and land use. estimation of flood discharges from the log-normal distribution is more
Regarding the resultant flood risk, no upazila in the study area is reliable for the design and operation of vital infrastructures, flood risk
under severe risky conditions with respect to the 2004 flood event (Fig. 7 management, and flood hazard mapping. Besides, the computed risk
(c)). The upazilas with the highest risks are Jamalpur S, Mymensingh S, levels were reasonably consistent with the overall property distribution
and Ishwarganj (Fig. 7(c) and Table 5). Although the three upazilas have and flood-hazard potential in the study area. The findings of this study
a similar level of risk, they have different compositions of hazard and are in good agreement with previous studies but provide a better un
vulnerability scores. For example, Ishwarganj upazila has a low derstanding about the integrated flood risk and vulnerability assess
vulnerability to flood but has a very high hazard score (Table 5 and ment. The outcomes of this study would help minimize the impacts of
Fig. 8). In contrast, Phulpur is highly vulnerable to flood but has a very flooding and assist in an early warning of future flooding in the context
low flood danger (Table 5 and Fig. 8). Among the thirteen upazila of Bangladesh. The developed coupling strategy also provides a valuable
alongside the OBR, Jamalpur Sadar and Mymensingh Sadar are the most tool for flood mapping and risk assessment in the South Asian regions.
risky to floods with a risk level of 3. This study also predicts that Sherpur
Sadar falls under the upper limit of moderate risk condition (i.e., level 2) CRediT authorship contribution statement
due to the medium level of hazard and vulnerability. On the other hand,
Dewanganj and Sreebardi are relatively safe and classified as regions Ke Zhang: Conceptualization, Data curation, Investigation, Soft
with a risk level of 1, since the two upazilas have both low levels of flood ware, Methodology, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing,
danger and vulnerability (Fig. 8 and Table 5). The remaining seven Funding acquisition. Md Halim Shalehy: Data curation, Investigation,
upazilas face a relatively moderate risk condition (i.e., risk level of 2). Software, Methodology, Writing – original draft, Writing – review &
Details of the hazard score and rank, vulnerability score and rank, and editing, Visualization. Gazi Tawfiq Ezaz: Data curation, Investigation,
risk level of the OBR upazilas are summarized in Table 5. Methodology, Writing – review & editing, Visualization. Arup Chak
Based on the flood risk map, corresponding to the 2004 flood event, raborty: Data curation, Visualization. Kazi Mushfique Mohib: Data
with flood depth and risk level overlapping the buildings, communities, curation, Visualization. Linxin Liu: Data curation, Visualization.
and infrastructures (Fig. 8), our results show that 46.48% of the study
area will be inundated if flood depth is greater than 0.30 m and less than Declaration of competing interest
3.60 m. As a result, many important places and points at risk, including
approximately 55,609 built-ups such as residential buildings, factories, The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
hospitals, and markets, 46 dwellings such as villages and towns, and 144 interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
important locations such as educational institutes, cyclone shelters, and the work reported in this paper.
other infrastructures. This study also shows that the population of major
cities and municipalities is much higher than that of the highland area, Acknowledgements
which makes these area most vulnerable and at the highest risk (Fig. 8).
The above results are also supported by the previous studies by Bhuiyan This study was supported by the National Natural Science Founda
and Al Baky (2014) and Adnan et al. (2019) in the context of flood tion of China (51879067), Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu
susceptibility zoning, mapping of flood hazard and vulnerability in Province (BK20180022), Fundamental Research Funds for the Central
Bangladesh. Our results clear implicate that further urban planning in Universities in China (B200204038), Hydraulic Science and Technology
this region or any other region should pay more attention to the po Plan Foundation of Shaanxi Province (2019slkj-B1), Hydraulic Science
tential flood hazard risk to achieve a sustainable urban planning, and Technology Plan Foundation of Jiangsu Province (2018055), and
although availability of natural resources and transportation conve Six Talent Peaks Project in Jiangsu Province (NY-004).
nience are key limiting factors for the urban planning.
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