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  • Lfof Polling Memo 06092023

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    Lfof Polling Memo 06092023

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    Lfof Polling Memo 06092023

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    6K views2 pages

    Lfof Polling Memo 06092023

    Uploaded by

    Washington Examiner
    Lfof Polling Memo 06092023

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 2

    Overview

    The battle for Ohio’s U.S. Senate seat has been acknowledged by many to be one of the top
    three Senate races in the country in 2024 as Republicans aim to take control of the upper
    chamber. Democrat incumbent Sherrod Brown is seeking re-election, and his history of electoral
    success and outperformance of other Democrats in Ohio makes him a formidable candidate in
    the General Election.

    Though Ohio has been trending more favorably toward Republicans over the past few cycles, it
    remains a state where voters are willing to “split the ticket” and support candidates from both
    parties. Brown was a beneJciary in 2018, winning his race for U.S. Senate while the GOP swept
    all statewide executive ofJces.

    The Republican candidate must be able to solidify the GOP base and appeal to moderate
    Independent and Swing voters if there is to be any chance of unseating Brown next November.

    Poll Results

    Causeway Solutions conducted a poll of 1639 registered voters between May 19-27 to better
    understand voter opinions regarding the upcoming Ohio U.S. Senate Primary and General
    Elections in 2024.

    The research shows Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose continues to hold a strong lead from
    previous polls and maintains the clear path forward for securing the nomination.

    Highlights of the poll include:

    • There is a solid divide between Republicans and Democrats on nearly every issue tested
    (ex. Border Security, Cost of Living, and Abortion), highlighting the hyper-partisanship of
    the electorate.

    • Independents reinforce their Swing Voter status as they tend to split the difference
    between Republicans and Democrats on most issues, though they side more with
    Republicans on parental involvement in schools and not engaging in overseas conflicts.

    • Joe Biden’s approval rating sits at 39%, and only 12% strongly approve. Forty-two (42%)
    percent strongly disapprove of his job performance.

    • Republicans hold a slight edge on the Generic Ballot (41%-39%)

    • Biden signiJcantly trails a generic Republican candidate (45%-33%)

    • Sherrod Brown has a small lead in the U.S. Senate race (39%-37%), including a four
    point lead among Independents (32%-28%)

    • Among Republican Primary voters only, Frank LaRose holds a double-digit lead
    over Matt Dolan and Bernie Moreno.
    LaRose 24%
    Dolan 11%
    Moreno 6%
    Someone Else 17%
    Undecided 42%

    Causeway Take

    LaRose has yet to announce whether he is running for the U.S. Senate, but Ohio voters seem to
    prefer him over the two already declared candidates.

    LaRose beneJts from his history of running, and winning, statewide four times (twice in the GOP
    Primary and twice in the General Election). Voters know him and like him, which is evidenced by
    his ability to build coalitions of supporters across the state. As NRSC Chairman Steve Daines
    recently said, Republicans need to appeal to voters “beyond the Republican base.” That skill will
    be necessary in a potential matchup with Brown, who already has a lead with Independent
    voters.

    There is no data to support the ability of Dolan or Moreno to win statewide, as Dolan lost the
    2022 GOP Primary for U.S. Senate to J.D. Vance and Moreno dropped out of the same race
    before voters could cast their ballots. Though Dolan and Moreno boast personal Jnancial
    resources and have indicated the willingness to spend their own money in the race, they will
    likely need to invest signiJcant amounts just to reach parity with LaRose in name identiJcation
    alone. Doing so would eliminate any perceived fundraising advantage and, in the end, leave few
    resources on hand heading into a General Election against a well-funded Sherrod Brown.

    One unknown factor in the Primary is the potential of a Trump endorsement. The former
    president continues to hold signiJcant influence within the Republican Party, and approximately
    half of GOP Primary Voters in Ohio say an endorsement would have at least some influence on
    their vote. Another quarter of the Primary electorate say a Trump endorsement would have a
    negative effect. A campaign strategy based solely on getting the Trump endorsement is not
    enough. The candidate who receives the endorsement, if one comes, will still need to build a
    coalition of voters, including those who have differing opinions on Donald Trump, to win the
    Primary.

    There are nine months to go before the Primary Election in Ohio and more than half of the
    Primary electorate remains undecided. Frank LaRose remains strongly positioned to earn the
    Republican nomination at such time as he chooses to enter the race.

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