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DCF Valuation Modeling Presentation - 2
DCF Valuation Modeling Presentation - 2
Course Instructor
Duncan McKeen
Executive Vice President
Explore a framework and Analyze a company’s operations Approach each schedule with a
guidelines for effective financial and divide a financial model into consistent layout and structure.
modeling. schedules.
Calculate key outputs within the Finalize and review the financial Create and maintain a library of
model schedules. model, ensuring integrity. schedules or building blocks.
It is useful to know how to construct a simple DCF model quickly for two reasons.
We will build a full DCF model after completing this compact model.
The business value depends on the quantity and timing of the expected future cash flows.
Business
We need to convert all future cash flows to their present value, which is the equivalent value today.
This is the date we set and use for These are the dates within each year
the valuation. when cash flows occur.
All cash flow quantities will be We assume cash flows occur at the
adjusted to this date. end of each year for now.
=
Cash Flow ? Unlevered Free Cash Flow UFCF
Discount Rate ? Weighted Average Cost of Capital WACC
=
UFCF Cash flows available to all capital providers
Enterprise Value
WACC Cost of capital from all capital providers
Discounting all UFCFs back at the WACC gives us the enterprise value.
This shows the first few years when the This part of the valuation covers the steady
company grows faster than the economy. state period which continues indefinitely.
Growth for the company slows in later It is not practical to forecast cash flows forever
years as competitors enter the market. in a financial model.
ENTERPRISE VALUE
PV of Discrete 50,623 39% =NPV( rate, value1, [value2],…)
PV of Terminal 79,406 61%
Enterprise Value 130,028 100%
PV 5 = 149,565
ENTERPRISE VALUE
PV of Discrete 50,623 39%
PV of Terminal 79,406 61%
Enterprise Value 130,028 100%
ENTERPRISE VALUE
PV of Discrete 50,623 39%
PV of Terminal 79,406 61% =NPV(rate, value1, [value2],…)
Enterprise Value 130,028 100%
Why does each valuation technique usually give us such different results?
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis You will build the DCF Model. If
Builds a model of the company to get you also select the inputs, then
the present value of all future free cash Your this technique shows your view.
flows. View
Comparable Trading Analysis Precedent Transaction Analysis Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Uses readily available and Uses readily available and One of the soundest
observable data. observable data. valuation techniques.
No peer companies are Hard to find perfectly Requires a lot of inputs and
exactly the same as the comparable and recent the model is only as good
target company transactions. as the inputs used.
Business Model
Replicating the business in an electronic format forces you to understand all the aspects of the business.
Intuitively, this makes sense as it follows the linear flow from inputs to outputs.
Designing backwards
Working Income ensures that all schedules
Depreciation Costs
Capital Statement support the outputs.
Presentation Appendix
WACC Costs
Inputs …
UFCF
DCF
Cover Outputs Inputs Model Here is the design of our DCF Model.
Cover Dashboard Drivers Revenue One of the first things for us to discuss is
the Model Drivers.
WACC Costs
Drivers
All figures in USD thousands unless stated Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
https://macabacus.com/docs
Revenue Schedule
All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers
OPERATIONS
Sales Volume Growth 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0%
VOLUME
Days in Period 365 365 365 365 365 365
Sales Volume (Units/Day) 1,374 1,401 1,430 1,459 1,473 1,488
Sales Volume (Units) 501,510 511,365 521,950 532,389 537,713 543,090
PRICING
Pricing Increases 1.7% 2.1% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Unit Price (USD/Unit) 102.86 104.61 106.81 110.01 111.11 112.23
REVENUE
Sales Volume (Units) 501,510 511,365 521,950 532,389 537,713 543,090
Sales Price (USD/Unit) 102.86 104.61 106.81 110.01 111.11 112.23
Revenue 51,585 53,494 55,749 58,570 59,748 60,949
Cover Outputs Inputs Model Here is the design of our DCF Model.
Current Taxes Current is an accounting term meaning ‘within the current period’.
These amounts will be paid to the government as tax payments.
These represent physical cash outflows from the company.
Deferred Taxes These are taxes that are being deferred into future periods.
Governments often allow these deferrals to encourage investment.
These are non-cash taxes for the company.
Total Taxes This is simply the current taxes plus the deferred taxes.
Income Statements often only show one line for Total Taxes.
Remember that many companies have both Current and Deferred Taxes.
But there are two Income Tax Schedules in the model. Let’s compare them.
What does it show us? Taxes with debt in capital structure. Taxes without debt in capital structure.
Why do we need it? For tax lines on the income statement. To calculate the tax shield.
DCF
Remember the key to this is consistency between the numerator and denominator.
=
UFCF Cash flows available to all capital providers
Enterprise Value
WACC Cost of capital from all capital providers
Discounting the UFCF back at the WACC gives us the enterprise value.
The key to this is still having consistency between the numerator and denominator.
=
LFCF Cash flows available to equity providers
Equity Value
Re Cost of capital from equity providers
Discounting the LFCF back at the cost of equity gives us the equity value.
We will use the previous approach to get enterprise value since it is more common.
EBITDA METHOD
We prefer this title since it The value of money can We will discuss how inflation
is the quantity of money also change depending on impacts the value of money
that is changing. the inflation rate. separately.
Next, we will review how the quantity of money can change over time.
Corporate Finance Institute®
Forward Moving Time Quantity of Money
Time Quantity of Money is really compound growth.
Cover Outputs Inputs Model We need to use the WACC to discount the
unlevered free cash flows.
Cover Dashboard Drivers Revenue
There are several formulas which are
WACC Costs needed to calculate the WACC.
Inputs …
We have included a separate schedule to
UFCF work through these calculations.
DCF
We must use the correct cash flows discounted by an appropriate discount rate.
=
UFCF Cash flows available to all capital providers
Enterprise Value
WACC Cost of capital from all capital providers
The WACC represents the cost of capital from all capital providers.
Formula: Example:
WACC = (Wd * Rd) + (We * Re) WACC = (0.25 * 0.050) + (0.75 * 0.108)
= 0.094
= 9.4%
Where: Where:
Wd = Weight of Debt Rd = Cost of Debt Wd = 25% Rd = 5.0%
We = Weight of Equity Re = Cost of Equity We = 75% Re = 10.8%
It is normal for the cost of debt to be The equity carries a heavier weight
lower than the cost of equity. and skews the WACC up to 10.8%.
Formula: Example:
Rd = Rp (1 – T) Rd = 0.625 (1 – 0.20)
= 0.050
= 5.0%
Where: Where:
Rd = Cost of Debt (After-Tax) Rd = Cost of Debt (After-Tax) ?
Rp = Cost of Debt (Pre-Tax) Rp = 6.25%
T = Tax Rate T = 20%
Formula: Example:
Re = Rf + Rc + (Rm x BL) Re = 2.4% + 3.6% + (4.7% x 1.03)
= 10.8%
Where: Where:
Re = Cost of Equity Re = Cost of Equity?
Rf = Risk Free Rate Rf = 2.4%
Rc = Country Risk Premium Rc = 3.6%
Rm = Market Risk Premium Rm = 4.7%
BL = Levered Beta BL = 1.03
Formula: Example:
BL = BU x (1 + (1 - T) x (D/E)) BL = 0.91 x (1 + (1 – 0.3) x (0.176))
= 1.03
Where: Where:
BL = Levered Beta BL = Levered Beta
BU = Unlevered Beta BU = 0.91
T = Tax Rate T = 30%
D/E = Debt-to-Equity Ratio D/E = 17.6%
Formula: Example:
BU = BL / (1 + (1 - T) x (D/E)) BU = 1.03 / (1 + (1 – 0.3) x (0.176))
= 0.91
Where: Where:
BU = Unlevered Beta BU = Unlevered Beta
BL = Levered Beta BL = 1.03
T = Tax Rate T = 30%
D/E = Debt-to-Equity Ratio D/E = 17.6%
Cover Outputs Inputs Model We’ve worked our way down to the bottom
of the Model tab now.
Cover Dashboard Drivers Revenue
We are now able to correctly calculate the
WACC Costs enterprise value for the company.
Inputs …
We will also be determining the equity value
UFCF as well as the equity value per share.
DCF
We must determine the timing of cash flows and where we will set the valuation date.
We discount cash flows Timing of the cash flow Timing of the cash flow Timing of the cash flow
back to this date. within this year. within this year. within this year.
2) Cash Flow Timing All figures in USD thousands Valuation Discrete Forecast Term
(YY-MM-DD) (YY-MM-DD) (YY-MM-DD) (YY-MM-DD) (YY-MM-DD)
This is the date we expect the cash flows to occur. Fiscal Year End 23-01-01 23-10-01 24-10-01 25-10-01 26-10-01
Could be closer to fiscal year end if Q4 is seasonally strong. Cash Flow Timing 23-01-01 23-04-01 24-04-01 25-04-01 26-04-01
Between the two fiscal year dates for no seasonality. Unlevered Free Cash Flow – 14,500 15,700 16,500 17,000
3) Valuation Date
We will discount all cash flows back to this date. We will be taking the cash flows from
This date is set by the model building team. the cash flow timing dates back to
The present value of the business will be as of this date. the valuation date.
Where:
PV = Present Value
FV = Future Value
r = Discount Rate
n = Number of Periods
Growing Perpetuity
FV1
PV0 = Used to calculate the present value of a perpetuity that grows
(r - g) forever. Input future value to get present value in previous period.
Where:
PV0 = Present Value in Period 0
FV1 = Future Value in Period 1
r = Discount Rate
g = Terminal Growth Rate
Cover Outputs Inputs Model We can now progress over to the Outputs
tab and work on the dashboards.
Cover Dashboard Drivers Revenue
The model outputs are critically important
WACC Costs for the stakeholders in making decisions.
Inputs …
We need a thoughtful dashboard showing
UFCF the most relevant model information.
DCF
Model Drivers
Our model design typically starts with a dashboard. Model Drivers Set To 2
Main Outputs
The dashboard is the most important part of the presentation.
Enterprise Equity Equity
Value Value Per Share
Model drivers are critical inputs that must be shown. 92,363
Best Case 1 124,843 106,201 3.11
Base Case 2 92,363 73,721 2.16
We often provide a toggle to change these drivers here. Worst Case 3 74,416 55,774 1.63
Enterprise Value
WACC
13.3% 88,357 90,275 92,363 94,644 97,146
Views may differ for the WACC and Terminal Growth Rate. 14.3% 82,703 84,278 85,982 87,830 89,841
15.3% 77,827 79,137 80,546 82,064 83,706
WACC
13.3% 69,715 71,633 73,721 76,002 78,504
14.3% 64,061 65,636 67,340 69,188 71,199
15.3% 59,185 60,495 61,904 63,422 65,064