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Chodas Day2 Briefing
Chodas Day2 Briefing
EXERCISE ONLY!!
Possible Impact Locations for 2017 PDC Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
Not visible during shaded times (AppMag > 26.8 or solar elongation < 45 deg) Telescope
Category:
1m
2m
4m
8m
HST
EXERCISE ONLY!!
Update on Physical Properties of 2017 PDC Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
• IAWN updated its size estimate for 2017 PDC based on NEOWISE
observations; the new size estimate is 200 to 280 meters
– Indicates a relatively low albedo of roughly 4% to 8%
EXERCISE ONLY!!
Impact Risk Assessment Summary
• Simulated 1000 impact cases for each swath point, sampling from
uncertainty distributions of size (diameter or H-mag/albedo), density,
and strength according to the given knowledge about the asteroid for
each inject option.
• Local population affected by blast overpressure and/or tsunami is
computed for each sampled impact case.
• For blast overpressure, different fractions of the population are counted as
affected depending on the blast overpressure level: 10% of people within the
1-2 psi zone, 30% within the 2-4 psi zone, 60% within the 4-10 psi zone, and
100% within the 10+ psi zone.
• For tsunami, fractions of the inundated population are counted as casualties
depending on flood depth (averaging to about 10% of the inundated
population).
• The maximum affected population from blast or tsunami is taken as the
affected population for each sampled impact case.
34
32
30
100 120 140 160 180
L. Wheeler, D. Mathias
EXERCISE ONLY!! Page 9
Mean Affected Population
EXERCISE ONLY!!
L. Wheeler, D. Mathias Page 10
Damage Level Probabilities
EXERCISE ONLY!!
L. Wheeler, D. Mathias Page 11
Space Mission Plans Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
• Over the last 18 months, the Space Missions Planning Advisory Group
(SMPAG) has been very active in advising for and coordinating an
international program of space missions to 2017 PDC
• Several types of space missions are under development:
– Early fast flyby characterization: launch in Oct. 2019, flyby May 2020
– Rendezvous characterization and observer spacecraft: launch in June 2020,
arrival in May 2023 (2 spacecraft)
– Kinetic Impactor Eastwards (KI-E): launch in March 2020, deflection Feb. 2024
(6 spacecraft)
– Kinetic Impactor Westwards (KI-W): launch in July 2023, deflection Feb. 2024
(6 spacecraft)
EXERCISE ONLY!!
CNEOS NEO Deflection App (NDA) Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/nda/nda.html
EXERCISE ONLY!!
Updated 2017 PDC Trajectory in B-Plane Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
East
West
EXERCISE ONLY!!
2017 PDC: B-Plane in NDA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
EXERCISE ONLY!!
Impact Footprint in the B-Plane Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
+
Easier direction
for Kinetic
Impactors
Difficult
direction for
Kinetic
Impactors
EXERCISE ONLY!!
Required vs. Achievable Deflection Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
3700 km
460 km
Delta-IVH,
Diameter: 270 m,
ρ = 1.5 g/cc, β=1
+
Deflect:
West: 2024-Jan-23
East: 2024-Feb-24
EXERCISE ONLY!!
Trajectory for Early Flyby Mission Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
EXERCISE ONLY!!
Trajectory for KI-Westwards Mission Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
EXERCISE ONLY!!
Trajectory for KI-Eastwards Mission Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
4
Launch: Mar. 28, 2020
2
Y (AU)
0
Depart:Earth
3/28/2020
Arrive: PDC2017
-1 2/24/2024
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
X (AU)
EXERCISE ONLY!!
Summary of Key Dates Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
LAUNCH ARRIVAL
Day 1 Day 2
Inject Inject