Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110874

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Ecological Indicators
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolind

Original Articles

Spatial-temporal variation characteristics and coupling coordination of the

“water resources – water environment – water ecology” carrying capacity in
the Three Gorges Reservoir Area
Feng Zhou a, Wanshun Zhang a, b, c, *, Anna Jiang a, Hong Peng d, Lin Li e, Langlang Deng a,
Yidian Sun a, Hao Wang a, f
a
School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
b
China Institute of Development Strategy and Planning, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
c
School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan
430072, China
d
School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
e
Zhejiang Dayu Information Technology Limited Company, Hangzhou 310002, China
f
China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The coordinated control and management of water resources, the water environment, and water ecology are
Water resources-water environment-water essential for optimizing the management of water resources, improving the water environment, rehabilitating
ecology carrying capacity water ecosystems, and achieving sustainable development. Most studies conducted to investigate the water
Coupling coordination indices
carrying capacity have focused primarily on water resources or water environment. However, it is challenging to
Influencing factors
conduct such research in areas where the interactions between water resources, the environment, and ecology
Three Gorges Reservoir Area
are intricate. In this study, an evaluation indicator system for the water resources - water environment - water
ecology carrying capacity (WCC) was constructed, and a coupling coordination model and GeoDetector were
employed to systematically analyze the coupling coordination indices (CCI) among the water resource carrying
capacity (WRECC), water environment carrying capacity (WENCC), and water ecology carrying capacity
(WECCC), as well as the main influencing factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) from 2005 to 2018.
The results showed that the numbers of counties and districts with a high CCI class gradually increased over this
period. The percentage of Class V fluctuated from 0% to 7.7%, and the stability of the water system steadily
increased. Spatially, the overall distribution pattern gradually increased from southwest to northeast, and both
the single and interactive effects of anthropogenic factors on water systems gradually increased. The CCI was
predominantly affected by factors such as the amount of surface water resources per capita, indices of water
conservation, forest coverage, discharge of domestic sewage per capita, and water replenishment of the
ecosystem. These results show that coordination between the WCC components should be strengthened to further
improve water use and domestic water treatment efficiency. To achieve superior-class, effective, and environ­
mentally friendly scientific governance, the productivity of water resources should be increased in areas where
the disparity between water availability and the demand for socioeconomic development is severe, and sewage
treatment processes should be closely regulated. It is also important to combine resource development and
utilization with water ecological protection and management.

1. Introduction consumption of natural resources and a surge in catastrophic environ­

mental events (Chen et al., 2022a). Sustainable Development Goal
In the past few decades, global population has expanded and eco­ (SDG) 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) indicates that countries are facing
nomic growth increased, which has resulted in the excessive increasingly severe water related challenges, including the water

* Corresponding author at: School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China.
E-mail address: [email protected] (W. Zhang).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110874
Received 11 May 2023; Received in revised form 17 August 2023; Accepted 22 August 2023
Available online 28 August 2023
1470-160X/© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-
nc-nd/4.0/).
F. Zhou et al. Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110874

scarcity caused by climate change, contamination of freshwater sup­ environment, and the water ecology (Meng et al., 2020).
plies, and ecosystem degradation (United Nations, 2023). The interna­ Research on the carrying capacity of water systems from the
tional community is therefore contemplating and exploring ways to perspective of water resources, the water environment, and water
achieve coordinated development. The 14th Five-Year Plan for the ecology has explored the construction of an evaluation index system and
“Protection of the Water Ecology and the Environment in Key River its associated connotations (Motoshita et al., 2020). However, the co­
Basins in China” proposes a framework and pinpoints requirements for ordinated development of a water system’s carrying capacity needs to
achieving objectives in relation to the water environment, water re­ enables effective water supplies and ensure the productivity of the basin,
sources, and water ecology (National Development and Reform Com­ in addition to protecting life and the natural environmental within it.
mission, 2021), which are viewed as a connected system of watershed When regular functions (such as water purification) occur naturally, the
ecosystems components that organically support each other. All three water environment can be considered safe and capable of promoting
must be strengthened in conjunction, because a deficiency in any one economic and social sustainability, with the aim of achieving a water
would reduce the capacity of a water system to support sustainable ecology that can support the highest socioeconomic and population
economic and social growth (Xu et al., 2021). Current plans are there­ levels (Zhu, 2020). Therefore, the coordination between water re­
fore focused on the synergistic control and management of these three sources, the environment, and ecology is necessary for sustainable and
components. Determining the water system carrying capacity assists in healthy socioeconomic development. Water ecosystem protection in the
resolving conflicts between socioeconomic growth and water ecological new era should be based on preserving the integrity of the water system,
conservation, and also promotes the pursuit of sustainable socioeco­ developing a target index system, assessing issues, and proposing control
nomic development (Chen et al., 2022b; Świąder et al., 2020; Xia et al., directions and measures within the framework of water resources, water
2020a,2020b; Zhu, 2020). From a coordination and integration stand­ environment, and water ecology coordination, as this would realize the
point, the study of water resources - water environment - water ecology overall protection, methodical restoration, and thorough management
carrying capacity (WCC) of a water system are crucial for establishing a of a water system.
quantitative relationship between them, and for devising important The Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) is a focal point and crucial
tools for use in the general protection, system restoration, and component within the ecological barrier of the upper reaches of the
comprehensive management of the water system (Jia et al., 2019; Xia Yangtze River, and there is an intricate relationship between water re­
et al., 2020a, 2020b). sources, the water environment, and water ecology in the TGRA.
The focus of preliminary studies on the carrying capacity of water Therefore, the healthy development of the water system in the TGRA is
systems can be divided into three areas: the carrying capacity of water important for promoting regional and national development patterns
resources, the water environment, and the water ecology (Fan et al., (Xia et al., 2020a, 2020b). To achieve quality and sustainable develop­
2021; Ma et al., 2020). Studies on the carrying capacity of water re­ ment, this study aims to effectively identify issues affecting the coordi­
sources concentrate on maximizing water resource usage at the nation of water resources, the water environment, and water ecology in
maximum tolerable agricultural, industrial, urban, and population the TGRA. Specifically, an evaluation indicator system for WCC is con­
levels, and they are based on an understanding of the formation and structed based on the composite relationship of water resources, water
evolution of water resources in accordance with the principles of the environment and water ecology using the Three Gorges Reservoir areas
hydrological cycle and spatiotemporal variations (Mohammadi et al., as the research object. The entropy weight method, comprehensive
2023; Mohammadi et al., 2022). When optimal development occurs, index evaluation method, and GeoDetector are employed to quantita­
water resources can be naturally recycled and renewed without causing tively assess the carrying capacity of the water resources, water envi­
environmental degradation (Yang et al., 2019). In the water environ­ ronment, and water ecology subsystem in the TGRA and their coupling
ment carrying capacity research stage, the main focus is on the threshold and coordination status and characteristics. In this respect, key factors
value of different pollutants that a water body can accommodate under affecting the coupling and coordination of WCC are explored in 2005,
the assumption that it satisfies the function of providing water for 2010, 2015, and 2018. The results serve as a guide for developing a
human society and the ecological environment, while avoiding any strategic layout for ecological environmental conservation in the region,
detrimental shifts in its function (Jiang et al., 2020; Yang et al., 2021). and for the government to use in the development of water system
The main emphasis is on the capacity of a water body to carry pollutants. management policies, with the ultimate aim of enabling humans and the
Studies of the water ecological carrying capacity stage mainly focus on natural environment to peacefully cohabitate.
the threshold value of an ecological subsystem that can sustainably
support the scale of human socioeconomic development under the 2. Materials and methodology
premise of meeting the healthy development of water ecosystems and
water quality objectives of water ecological function areas. Many studies 2.1. Study area
focusing on water ecological carrying capacity assessments and water
environmental capacity accounting are now being conducted (Bu et al., The TGRA is situated at the junction of middle and lower reaches of
2020; Zhang et al., 2021a, 2021b), and research has mainly focused on the Yangtze River Plain and the Sichuan Basin, and it can generally be
water resources, the water environment, water ecology, and whether a divided into three parts (Fig. 1). The millions of people living along this
single system can support the population and economic development stretch of the Yangtze River depend on the water supply from the Three
thresholds (Hu et al., 2021). However, studies of the water system car­ Gorges Reservoir for their livelihoods. The reservoir also enables sus­
rying capacity are not comprehensive, and they do not consider the tainable socioeconomic development in the region. Within the TGRA,
coupling and coordination between water resources, water environ­ the average annual rainfall, surface water resources, transit water re­
ment, and water ecology subsystems, which results in a large water sources, and available water resources are 974–––1817 mm, 18.486
system carrying capacity and the maximum socio-economic develop­ billion m3, 413.4 billion m3, and 86.364 billion m3, and the per capita
ment scale and population scale that can be supported (Su et al., 2018; water resources consistently exceed 10,000 m3 per year (https://slj.cq.
Yang et al., 2016). In addition, these studies have not focused on the gov.cn, https://slt.hubei.gov.cn). According to China environmental
individual components (the water resources, environment, and ecology) quality standard for surface water (GB3838-02), the water quality in
of the water system carrying capacity. When examining the water sys­ nine sections of the Yangtze River’s main stream in the TGRA was better
tem carrying capacity, greater focus needs to be placed on sustainability, than III in 2016 (Ecological and environmental monitoring bulletin of
holistic thinking, and systemic approaches (Liu et al., 2015; Zhu, 2020). Yangtze River Three Gorges Project, 2016).
It is therefore of interest to investigate the water system carrying ca­
pacity based on the coordination between water resources, the water

2
F. Zhou et al. Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110874

Fig. 1. Location of Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

2.2. Data source This index system considers the internal interactions between water
resource endowment and utilization, water environment pollution
The primary data sources for 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2018 were the assimilation and purification, water habitats and biotic habitats (Fig. 2).
statistical yearbooks of Chongqing, Hubei, Yichang and Enshi (https://t The steps used to calculate the WCC, water resources carrying ca­
jj.cq.gov.cn, https://tjj.hubei.gov.cn, https://xxgk.yichang.gov.cn, pacity (WRECC), water environment carrying capacity (WENCC), water
https://www.enshi.gov.cn) and the water resources bulletins of ecological carrying capacity (WECCC) were as follows: 1) appropriate
Chongqing, Hubei, Yichang and Enshi (https://slj.cq.gov.cn, https://slt. items were selected and a hierarchical structure model was developed
hubei.gov.cn, https://shj.yichang.gov.cn, https://slj.enshi.gov. (Table 1); 2) the polar difference approach was used for normalization
cn/bmwj); statistical bulletins for the ecological environment of and the index’s positive and negative directionality was considered; 3)
Chongqing, Hubei, Yichang and Enshi (https://sthjj.cq.gov.cn, https:// the entropy weight method was used to calculate the weight of each
sthjt.hubei.gov.cn, https://hbj.yichang.gov.cn, https://hbj.enshi.gov. indicator; 4) the “modular addition” approach was used to calculate the
cn); and the national economic and social development bulletins for carrying capacities of water resources (f(eWRE )), the water environment
Chongqing, Hubei, Yichang and Enshi (https://www.cq.gov.cn, https (f(eWEN )), and water ecology (f(eWEC )). Please see the study of Zhou
://www.hubei.gov.cn, https://xxgk.yichang.gov.cn, https://www.es. et al., (2021) for specific steps.
gov.cn). The river network density, forest cover, and biodiversity of
each district and county were obtained by remote sensing interpretation; 2.3.2. Coupling coordination model
and the TN and TP water environment capacity were calculated using a Coupling occurs when multiple systems or forms of movement in­
watershed model (Li, 2021; Xia, 2021). fluence each other through various interactions, and it is prevalent in
complex systems (Jia et al., 2023). A water system is composed of water
2.3. Methodology resources, the water environment, and water ecology, and its develop­
mental level is largely related to the interaction between these three
2.3.1. WCC index components. To assess the level of the overall coupling coordination
The WCC comprehensive index system contains water resource, between the WRECC, WENCC, and WECCC, it is necessary to define the
water environment, and water ecology indicators. When determining interaction and synergy between or within system elements using the
the carrying capacity of water resources, it is important to consider the coupling coordination degree model (Fan et al., 2019). Based on the
ability of regional water resources to deliver water for household, in­ study of Chongbin Liao (Chen et al., 2018; Liao, 1999), a coupling de­
dustrial, and agricultural purposes, in addition to their water resource gree model for the interaction between the three systems (water re­
endowment and utilization. The water environment’s carrying capacity sources, the water environment, and water ecology) was developed
reflects the water environment’s ability to absorb pollution and purify it, (Chen et al., 2018).
and the extent to which the population, economy, and society are being ⎧ ⎫k
developed sustainably on the assumption that regional water environ­ ⎪
⎪
⎪
⎨f (e ) × f (e ) × f (e ) ⎪
⎪
⎪
⎬
ment functions can continue to be carried out normally under environ­ C=
WRE
[
WEN WEC
]3 (1)
mental quality requirements. The habitats and biological habitats of ⎪
⎪
⎪
⎩
f (eWRE )+f (eWEN )+f (eWEC )
3
⎪
⎪
⎪
⎭
water bodies are primarily reflected in their water ecology carrying
capacity. Water ecosystems need to be healthy to enable economic ac­ where, C is the coupling degree, f(eWRE ) is the water resources car­
tivity and to provide for the people they support. We compiled an rying capacity, f(eWEN ) is the water environment carrying capacity,
appropriate index system for the WCC in the TGRA based on relevant f(eWEC ) is the water ecological carrying capacity, and k is the adjustment
studies focusing on water resources, the water environment, and the coefficient, k ≥ 2, in this study, k = 2.
water ecology carrying capacity indicators (Xu et al., 2021; Zhu, 2020).

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F. Zhou et al. Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110874

Fig. 2. The internal interactions within a water system.

Table 1
WCC evaluation indexes.
Subsystem Symbol Direction Index Implication Wi

Water Resources D1 – Water consumption per ten thousand GDP Water resource demand for socio-economic development 0.010
D2 – Amount of water used per capita for domestic use Water resource demand for domestic life 0.008
D3 + Amount of surface water resources per capita Water resource endowment 0.240
D4 – Average acreage of water used for farmland irrigation Water resource demand for agricultural production 0.008
D5 – Water consumption per ten thousand industrial GDP Water resource demand for industrial production 0.009
Water D6 – Discharge of domestic sewage per capita Influence of residential domestic wastewater discharge on water 0.012
Environment environment
D7 + Compliance rate of industrial wastewater discharge Improvement of water environment by industrial wastewater 0.007
treatment
D8 – Fertilizer use per square kilometer Influence of fertilizer use in agricultural production on water 0.032
environment
D9 + Centralized treatment rate of urban domestic sewage Improvement of water environment by urban domestic sewage 0.117
treatment
D10 – Number of livestock per square kilometer Influence of livestock farming on the water environment 0.015
D11 – Wastewater emissions per ten thousand yuan Influence of socio-economic development on water environment 0.042
D12 – Wastewater emissions per ten thousand yuan of Influence of industrial production wastewater discharge on water 0.006
industrial GDP environment
D13 – TN emissions of ten thousand GDP Influence of socio-economic development on TN 0.009
D14 – TP emissions of ten thousand GDP Influence of socio-economic development on TP 0.012
D15 + Water environment capacity of TN Capacity of the water environment to accommodate TN 0.117
D16 + Water environment capacity of TP Capacity of the water environment to accommodate TP 0.116
Water Ecology D17 + Density of surface river network Degree of water aggregation 0.021
D18 + Forest coverage Protection of water ecology by forest 0.082
D19 – Water replenishment of the ecosystem Water resources to support the water ecosystem 0.019
D20 + Biodiversity Water habitats 0.039
D21 + Indices of water conservation Capacity of water conservation 0.081

Note: + indicates that the index has a positive influence within a certain range, and - indicates that the index has a negative impact within a certain range.

The following equation can be used to design a suitable coupled and certain independent variable significantly influences a dependent vari­
coordinated development model because the coupling degree only il­ able, there should be spatial similarity in the distribution of both the
lustrates the strength of the interactions between the systems and not independent and dependent variables (Wang and Hu, 2012). The Geo­
their coordination. Detector statistical method can detect spatial differentiation and reveal
√̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅ the driving forces behind the phenomena, including differentiation and
H = C×T (2) factor detection, interaction detection, risk area detection, and ecolog­
ical detection (Wang and Xu, 2017). GeoDetector does not have many
T = αf (eWRE ) + βf (eWEN ) + γf (eWEC ) (3)
assumptions, and it can effectively overcome the limitations of tradi­
where H is the indices of coupling coordination (CCI), T is the tional statistical analysis methods that deal with categorical variables
outcome of an extensive evaluation of the water resources, water envi­ and have functional versatility (Wang and Xu, 2017). GeoDetector ex­
ronment, and water ecology that reflects the full advantages and levels cels in type data, however, discretization is necessary for sequential,
of the three subsystems, and α, β and γ are undetermined coefficients, ratio, and interval data. To obtain the spatial distribution of each
whose values are given equal weights. detection factor, we employed IBM SPSS Statistics software (version
The natural breakpoint method in ArcGIS 10.2 software was used to 25.0) to perform k-means clustering. Each subsystem indicator, Di, was
grade the WRECC, WENCC, WECCC, and CCI, and these were divided separated into five strata, and there was no correlation between the level
into Classes I, II, III, IV, and V. This results in a better analysis of the of the clustering category and the detection factors. We measured the
carrying capacity and coupling coordination indices of each subsystem. explanation of various indicators on the CCI of the WCC, and the
interaction detection of the interaction and superposition effects be­
2.3.3. GeoDetector method tween the factors, using the divergence and factor detection of
The core concept of GeoDetector is based on the assumption that if a GeoDetector.

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F. Zhou et al. Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110874

The calculation formula is as follows: capita surface water resources were low and the industrial production
∑M 2
water consumption was high, and in Wanzhou District, Fuling District,
h=1 Nh σ h SSW Fengdu County and Yunyang County, which are located in the hinter­
P = 1− = 1− (4)
Nσ 2 SST land area of the TGRA. The regions in Classes III and IV were primarily
∑
M distributed in the head area of the TGRA, which is rich in surface water
SSW = Nh σ2h , SST = N σ2 (5) resources. The average water consumption for agricultural irrigation
h=1 was high, but the water demand for industrial production was low. Only
where P is the explanatory power of Di on the level of coupling co­ Wuxi County in the head area of the TGRA was classified as Class V, and
ordination indices of the WCC; h = 1, …, M is the strata of the subsystem the water resources in this county are two to ten times greater per person
indicators (that is, classification or partitioning) which was divided into than other districts and counties and less water is used for industrial
five strata in this study; Nh and N are the number of counties/districts in production and irrigating agricultural land.
layer h and the entire region, respectively, N = 26; and SSW and SST are
the variances of the CCI for layer h and the entire region, respectively. P 3.2. Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of WENCC
∈ [0,1], a larger P value of indicates that the subsystem indicators
explain the spatio-temporal divergence of the coupling coordination Figs. 5 and 6 show the spatial and temporal evolution of the WENCC
indices of WRECC, WENCC, and WECCC, and that the influence on the from 2005 to 2018, where an overall upward trend is evident that is,
coupling coordination indices is greater. Indicators with P > 0.5 were primarily a result of the growth of higher class counties and districts.
considered to be the main influences on the CCI. Interactions among From 2005 to 2018, the percentages of areas in Class I declined from
various subsystem indicators Di were identified using interaction 3.9% to 0%, those in Class II decreased from 80.8% to 3.9%, those in
detection. The steps involved calculating the P values, namely, P(x1) Class III fluctuated from 15.4% to 73.1%, those in Class IV fluctuated
and P(x2), for the two indicators x1 and x2 with respect to the CCI from 0% to 19.2%, those in Class V fluctuated from 0% to 3.9%; and
independently. The P value for their interaction, P(x1 ∩ x2), was then those in Class III to IV increased by 80.8%. Districts and counties where
computed, and a comparative analysis was conducted between P(x1), P there were relatively large increases in the WENCC were mainly
(x2), and P(x1 ∩ x2). The relationships between these two factors were concentrated in the core area of the Chongqing metropolitan areas
categorized as shown in (Table 2). We then analyze whether the effects located at the tail of the TGRA. From 2005 to 2015, there were upward
of the subsystem indicators (x1 and x2) of Di on the dependent variable trends in all districts and counties, and Yubei District showed the largest
CCI were independent of one another, or whether their combined effects increase of 0.26; this district has a high centralized sewage treatment
increased or reduced the explanatory power of the CCI (Wang and Xu, rate, low production wastewater discharge coefficient, and a high TP
2017). water environmental capacity. The WENCC in Wanzhou, Nanan, Sha­
pingba, Jiangbei and Banan districts increased by more than 0.17; in
3. Results these districts, there are comparatively fewer agricultural areas, a higher
fertilizer utilization efficiency, and centralized domestic sewage treat­
3.1. Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of WRECC ment facilities have been well constructed. However, most counties and
districts showed a modest decreasing trend in 2018 compared to 2015,
Figs. 3 and 4 show the spatial and temporal variations in the WRECC after attaining a higher class in 2015.
from 2005 to 2018, where general upward trend with a considerable The spatial distribution of the WENCC was opposite to that of the
increase occurred, mostly in low-level districts and counties. From 2005 WRECC, and the general spatial distribution pattern of the WENCC
to 2018, the percentage of Class I decreased from 11.5% to 38.5%, the gradually decreased from southwest to northeast (Fig. 6). Classes I and II
percentage of Class II fluctuated from 7.7% to 34.6%, the percentage of areas were primarily concentrated at the head of the TGRA, where
Class III remained unchanged at 19.2%, the percentage of Class IV agriculture accounts for a significant proportion of land use. However,
increased from 0% to 3.9%, and the percentage of Class V remained the sewage collection facilities in rural areas remain inadequate. Simi­
unchanged at 3.9%. From 2005 to 2010, the water use efficiency of larly, Class I and II areas were prevalent in the hinterland area of the
Xingshan and Zigui Counties (at the head of the TGRA) improved TGRA, excluding the Fuling and Wanzhou districts. However, only
significantly, and the WRECC increased by 0.05 and 0.02, respectively. Yubei District and Wanzhou District were classified as Class V and the
Badong County, Yiling District, Beibei District, Jiangbei District, centralized sewage treatment facilities are well constructed and the
Wanzhou District and Zhongxian County improved less. There were water environment is higher in these areas. Other districts and counties
slight downward trends in WRECC and upward trends in the amount of were mostly located in Classes III and IV, and these were mainly situated
domestic water use of the rest of the districts and counties. After 2010, at the tail and hinterland areas of the TGRA, where agricultural culti­
the WRECC of Fengjie, Shizhu, Wushan, Wuxi and Wulong counties vation covers a significant area of land. Due to the relatively advanced
improved significantly (exceeding 0.015), and this was, mainly because agricultural and industrial production technology levels, the fertilizer
of significant improvements in water use efficiency in this part of the usage (per km2) and the industrial production wastewater discharge (per
country. 10,000 yuan) are low.
There was a general increase in the spatial distribution of WRECC
from the southwest to the northeast (Fig. 4). The areas in Classes I and II 3.3. Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the WECCC
were mainly distributed in the tail area of the TGRA, where the per
Figs. 7 and 8 show the spatial and temporal evolution of the WECCC
from 2005 to 2018, where an overall slight upward trend is evident.
Table 2 From 2005 to 2018, the percentages of Class I increased from 3.9% to
Types of interaction between two covariates. 7.7%; Class II fluctuated from 34.6% to 38.5%; Class III dropped from
Criterion Interactive relationship 30.8% to 23.1%; Class IV fluctuated from 19.2% to 26.9%; Class V
dropped from 11.5% to 3.9%. Districts and counties with a high WECCC
P(x1 ∩ x2) < min [P(x1), P(x2)] Non-linear reduction
min [P(x1), P(x2)] < P(x1 ∩ x2) < max [P(x1), P Single-factor nonlinear were mainly clustered in the soil and water conservation ecological
(x2)] reduction function area in the TGRA, namely Xingshan County, Yiling District,
P(x1 ∩ x2) > max [P(x1), P(x2)] Two-factor enhancement Zigui County, Wushan County, within the head area of the TGRA. The
P(x1 ∩ x2) = P(x1) + P(x2) Independent greatest WECCC increase occurred in districts and counties distributed
P(x1 ∩ x2) > P(x1) + P(x2) Non-linear enhancement
in the tail of the TGRA.

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F. Zhou et al. Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110874

Fig. 3. Number of counties/districts and WRECC class distribution from 2005 to 2018.

Fig. 4. Spatial distribution of WRECC from 2005 to 2018.

The spatial distribution of the WECCC was similar to that of the 3.4. Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of WCC coupling
WRECC (Fig. 8). Most Class I and II areas were distributed in the tail area coordination indices
of the TGRA, where the ecological foundation is weak and population,
economic, and development intensity were concentrated in the higher Figs. 9 and 10 show the regional and temporal evolution of the WCC
class, as well as in the Wanzhou and Fuling districts in the hinterland coupling coordination from 2005 to 2018, which shows a general
area of the TGRA. Class V counties included Xingshan, Yiling, and Zigui, downward trend. However, there was a gradual increase in the number
and this was due to their improved ecological resources and ongoing of districts and counties belonging high CCI classes, a decrease in inter-
support for ecological protection. Most of the remaining counties and regional differences, and a gradual increase in stability. From 2005 to
districts belonged to Classes III and IV. 2018, the percentage of areas within the Class I category increased from
19.2% to 23.1%, those in Class II fluctuated and remained at 26.9% in
2018, those in Class III fell from 23.1% to 15.4%, and the percentages in
Classes IV and V varied from 3.9% to 26.9%, 0% to 7.7%, respectively.
From 2005 to 2018, there were fluctuating upward CCI trends in

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F. Zhou et al. Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110874

Fig. 5. Number of counties/districts and WENCC class distribution from 2005 to 2018.

Fig. 6. Spatial distribution of WENCC from 2005 to 2018.

Badong, Xingshan, Yiling, Zigui, Wushan, and Wuxi counties in the head gradually increased from southwest to northeast (Fig. 10). The areas in
area of the TGRA, and in Shizhu County and Wulong District in the Classes I and II were mostly distributed in Wanzhou and Fuling districts,
hinterland area of the TGRA, and their WRECC and WRCCC had a decent and in the districts and counties within the tail area of the TGRA, where
base. In addition, due to the industry’s ecological makeup, less stress is there was a lack of harmony between the natural environment and
placed on the carrying capacity of the water environment because of its economic development. The districts and counties in Class V were
development, and the CCI continues to improve. The remaining districts Wulong County in the hinterland area of the TGRA, and Badong, Xing­
and counties exhibited fluctuating downward trends, and they had weak shan, and Wuxi counties in the head area of the TGRA, where the water
ecological foundations, insufficient water resources, and high interfer­ ecological foundation is significant. Most of the districts and counties
ence from human activity during development. The unevenness between within Classes III and IV were distributed in the hinterland area of the
the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the WCC and socio-economic TGRA.
development is prominent.
Similar to the distributions of WRECC and WECCC, CCI showed
significant spatial heterogeneity, and the general distribution pattern

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F. Zhou et al. Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110874

Fig. 7. Number of counties/districts and WECCC class distribution from 2005 to 2018.

Fig. 8. Spatial distribution of WECCC from 2005 to 2018.

4. Discussion D18, D19, D10, D2, D6, D9, D15, D16, D13, and D8 were the primary
impact indicators in 2018. From 2005 to 2018, there was a gradual in­
4.1. Principal factors affecting CCI crease in the number of variables that had a significant impact on the
CCI, and this reflected the increasing influence of anthropogenic activ­
4.1.1. Impact of factors ities on water systems (Schramm and Schramm, 2018). The importance
Fig. 11 shows the power level of influence of each indicator on the of variables D8, D9, D10, D15, and D16 became more apparent over
CCI from 2005 to 2018. D3, D18, D6, D21, and D19 were key factors time. The ranking of D4, D7, D9, D10, D12 and other water environment
affecting CCI; D3, D18, D6, D21, D19, D13, and D2 were the primary factors changed significantly, which indicated gradual improvements in
impact factors in 2005; D3, D21, D18, D6, D19, D13, D9, and D2 were the level of industrial and agricultural production, domestic water use,
the primary impact factors in 2010; D3, D18, D21, D6, D19, D9, D2, D8, and the building of sewage treatment facilities, and their influence on
D1, D15, and D16 were the primary impact factors in 2015; and D3, D21, WCC was varying and downward trending (Świąder et al., 2020).

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F. Zhou et al. Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110874

Fig. 9. Number of counties/districts and CCI class distribution from 2005 to 2018.

Fig. 10. Spatial distribution of WCC from 2005 to 2018.

4.1.2. Detecting interactions between factors being water ecology indicators of the river network density and water
According to the detection of interactions for each indicator from environment indicators of wastewater discharge to water environment
2005 to 2018 (Fig. 12), interactions between indicators significantly indicators of GDP water consumption and residential sewage discharge,
affected the geographical and temporal variance of the CCI. D3 measures under the premise of a water resources foundation guarantee. This
the quantity of available water resource, and other indicators combined, shows that with the continuous promotion of constructing sewage
and the P values of D3 were high in 2005. The driving factors of D18 and treatment facilities, ecological protection, and restoration measures,
D21, which reflect the water ecological condition and other combined there will be improvements in the coordination between the components
factors on the CCI, gradually emerged after 2005. Furthermore, D3, D18, of the WCC, which will further improve the efficiency of water resources
and D21 were the main factors affecting the CCI, and the main factors of utilization and domestic water treatment (Motoshita et al., 2020). This
WRECC and WECCC had a stronger influence on the CCI than WENCC also signifies that the impact of anthropogenic interactions on the water
(Su et al., 2018). Between 2005 and 2018, the interactive driving factor system gradually increases as the P-value of the inter-combination of the
values of all combinations of D3 and D1, D6, D17, D11, and D13 had an components gradually increases (Steinfeld et al., 2020).
impact greater than 0.96. The principal interactive effect changed from

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F. Zhou et al. Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110874

Fig. 11. (a) Explanatory power and (b) ranking of factors from 2005 to 2018.

4.2. Analysis of spatial and temporal differentiation of CCI urbanized than the other areas, has a relatively low carrying capacity.
This area has a high population density, and therefore a high demand for
There is clear spatial heterogeneity in the CCI due to disparities be­ water used in socio-economic development, and it is necessary to
tween the WRECC, WENCC, and WECCC of each district and county in improve the productivity of water resources under the premise that basic
the TGRA. Water resources are the foundation of human existence, water resources are limited.
economic growth, and environmental health. Mechanical advances Further emphasis should be placed on fostering technological inno­
could result in decreased water consumption while maintaining the vation for use in home water facilities, agricultural output, and indus­
same irrigation and industrial output requirements, which would trial production, and on strengthening the technical efficacy of water
improve water resource carrying capacity (Mosavi et al., 2020; Steinfeld resource usage. This would contribute to supporting progress towards
et al., 2020). With increasing regional urbanization, a greater proportion achieving SDG Indicator 6.4, which relates to substantially increasing
of water resources are used for both production and consumption pur­ the water-use efficiency across all sectors by 2030 (United Nations,
poses (Liu et al., 2022). As the WRECC is primarily affected by the 2023). For example, synergy arises when enhancing the water-use effi­
quantity of water resources, the tail area of the TGRA, which is more ciency for food production (SDG Target 2.4), and this would mitigate

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F. Zhou et al. Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110874

Fig. 12. Results of interactions between factors from 2005 to 2018.

water scarcity (SDG Target 6.4), and ensure an equitable water supply. and phosphorus loads. However, inadequate rural sewage collection and
Efforts should also focus on extending the positive effects of these ini­ treatment facilities, as well as non-compliance with environmental
tiatives to other areas of the TGRA, with the aim of increasing the regulations, also contribute to the low WENCC. Additionally, because
benefits of improved water management practices over a wider region the area is primarily mountainous terrain, the mountainous ecosystems
(Zhang et al., 2021a, 2021b). Although the WRECC was marginally and hydrological processes respond more dramatically to environmental
higher in the hinterland and head areas than that in the tail of the TGRA, changes than those in flat regions. This phenomenon exacerbates soil
their level of technological development in the head areas is lower than erosion and agricultural non-point source pollution, posing a significant
that in the tail area of the TGRA, which means that further advance­ challenge to the water environment (Zhong et al., 2020). The technology
ments in water resource management and restoration strategies are and approaches used to manage agricultural surface source pollution
required in the former area. with agricultural production in hilly mountainous areas need to be
The water environment carrying capacity primarily relates to the advanced and strengthened, owing to the relatively slow economic and
pollution carrying capacity of the water system. Economic adjustments, scientific development and the lack of technical support for the water
wastewater treatment design and construction, and technological im­ environment management system. However, regional economic growth
provements have led to a reduction in discharge volume, which in turn is comparatively sluggish and adequate funding for environmental
has increased the WENCC (Wang et al., 2019a, 2019b). The tail area of management and cutting-edge wastewater treatment facilities is lack­
the TGRA has comparatively more sophisticated wastewater treatment ing. In addition, the resilience capacity could be increased by actively
facilities, a higher water reuse effectiveness, and widespread water adapting to natural features and changes. This indicates that we could
development and consumption. Significant improvements have been reduce the impact on the environment by investing in infrastructure,
made in sewage treatment plant treatment capacity, industrial waste­ modernizing our industrial structure, and optimizing spatial patterns.
water discharge compliance rate, and sewage treatment rate. The Strengthening the construction of rural sewage treatment facilities in the
administration of water systems is steadily becoming scientific and tail area of the TGRA is urgently required, especially in the hilly
optimized. mountains (Wang et al., 2021). These provide a means of monitoring
The water environment at the tail of the TGRA has a high carrying progress towards achieving SDG Target 6.3, with the aim of improving
capacity. However, the industrial base at the head area of the TGRA is water quality (United Nations, 2023). The pattern of economic expan­
weak owing to the region’s geological features and geographic location, sion needs to be altered. In addition, a circular economic model adopted,
traffic patterns, and infrastructure level, and the agricultural economy of which would enable the conservation of water, the full utilization po­
the region is dominant. Continuous improvements in the supply capacity tential of the water environment, and the active promotion of economic
of agricultural products, characterized by high livestock output and growth, optimizing the advantages of water environmental protection
increased fertilization of farmlands, have resulted in increased nitrogen and economic development (Zhou et al., 2019).

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F. Zhou et al. Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110874

The structural integrity, functional stability, diversity and hetero­ foundation for achieving the SDGs. To address the issue of the uncoor­
geneity of water ecology characterize the health and sustainability of dinated carrying capacity of water resources, the water environment,
water ecosystems (Chang et al., 2020). The ecological function of the and water ecology in the TGRA, we must first resolve the conflict be­
TGRA is becoming increasingly disturbed by human activities. The tween the amount of available water resources and regional develop­
ecological and environmental management and comprehensive man­ ment. It is necessary to boost innovation in domestic water facilities,
agement of watersheds have been gradually promoted and the impor­ industrial and agricultural production, and the technical efficiency of
tant tributaries identified in a pilot “one river, one policy” water resource utilization. In underdeveloped regions, particularly hilly
comprehensive remediation program and ecological restoration project. and mountainous areas where agricultural land is widespread but scat­
In this respect, the trend of ecological function degradation has been tered, it is necessary to improve water environment management and
curbed, and the water ecological environment health improvement has wastewater treatment facilities. Therefore, to strengthen the integrated
been positive for the local area. However, ecological restoration and management of the watershed, it is necessary to ensure water ecological
environmental system management measures are insufficient because of protection, to achieve long-term effectiveness and sustainability of the
the exceptional spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the natural envi­ water system carrying capacity coordination.
ronment and the different economic development levels in the TGRA, in
addition to the negative effects of the accumulation of the ecological 5. Conclusions
environment (Liu et al., 2020). There is scope for development of the
density of the river network, biodiversity, and the water content indices. This study was conducted to assess the spatial and temporal het­
The transition from quantitative to qualitative improvements in water erogeneity of water resources, the water environment, the water ecology
environmental and ecological health has not yet reached the inflection carrying capacity and their coupling coordination indices within the
point, and the enhancement of water ecological carrying capacity con­ TGRA from 2005 to 2018. The key influencing factors contributing to
tinues to progress gradually. variations in the CCI were identified and analyzed. The number of
The water ecological balance is under significant pressure owing to counties and districts with a high CCI increased gradually from 2005 to
the complicated geographic conditions and the high ecological fragility 2018. In addition, the spatial distribution of the CCI exhibited a gradual
within the mountainous area. Tradeoffs can occur when the water de­ increase from the southwest to the northeast due to the pronounced
mand for sanitation and hygiene systems (SDG Target 6.2) competes spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the natural environment and uneven­
with that for agriculture (SDG Target 2.3). Therefore, densely populated ness in economic development. The individual and interactive effects of
regions in the tail and hinterland of the TGRA experience water scarcity, anthropogenic factors on water systems have gradually increased over
leading to significant pressure on the water ecological balance (Wang time. It is necessary to increase the productivity of water resources in
et al., 2019a, 2019b). It is important to reduce river encroachment and areas where the disparity between water availability and the demand for
obstructions, minimize disturbances and harm to the water ecosystem, socioeconomic development is severe. It is also important to continue to
implement strategies to improve connectedness of water flow, and in­ improve industrial energy efficiency and reduce emissions, encourage
crease the water storage capacity. Although the ecological substrate of the development of new technologies and production methods, increase
the head area of the TGRA is superior to that of other areas, the sur­ the rate at which industrial water is reused, increase public awareness of
rounding anthropogenic activities are causing fragile and sensitive areas water conservation, and enhance mechanisms for monitoring and
of high ecological quality, and there is a lack of means and measures to managing water resources. However, the discharge of sewage and
build firm water ecological results. In multi-factor development and wastewater presents a challenge for better coordination and coupling of
utilization situations, it is necessary to continue practicing the ecological WCC. Sewage treatment processes must be regulated to treat sewage and
path of “vegetation restoration - vegetation restoration industrialization wastewater effectively. To achieve high-class, effective, and environ­
- industrial ecology - ecological landscape - landscape industrialization - mentally friendly scientific governance, the benefits of water ecology
industrial integration development”, to realize the ecological product restoration and economic benefits should also be emphasized. In the
value, improve the long-term mechanism, and increase the protection future, exploring the interactive mechanisms between water services
capacity. and human societal activities will be paramount. Furthermore, inte­
Each indicator of WCC ultimately has an impact on water avail­ grated and holistic governance that considers water resources, water
ability, the water quality, and habitat health, leading to uneven and environment, and water ecology must be improved to achieve compre­
uncoordinated issues with the carrying capacity for water resources, the hensive and sustainable management.
water environment, and the water ecosystem. Urbanization is accom­
panied by an increase in resource and energy consumption, and the CRediT authorship contribution statement
gradual increase in urban water consumption, industrial production
water consumption, and an increase in the demand for water resources Feng Zhou: Methodology, Investigation, Writing – review & editing,
further exacerbates the imbalance of water resources. Water scarcity can Formal analysis, Writing – original draft, Visualization, Data curation.
exert pressures on both water management and ecological water usage. Wanshun Zhang: Conceptualization, Methodology, Funding acquisi­
A sizable proportion of the population lives in rural areas, where eco­ tion, Supervision. Anna Jiang: Conceptualization, Writing – review &
nomic and technological development lag behind other areas, manage­ editing. Hong Peng: Supervision, Writing – review & editing. Lin Li:
ment systems lack technical support, the construction of sewage Conceptualization, Data curation. Langlang Deng: Methodology,
treatment facilities is insufficient, and there are evident imbalances in Writing – review & editing. Yidian Sun: Methodology, Writing – review
the water environment. & editing. Hao Wang: Conceptualization, Supervision.
Most targets for achieving SDG 6 emphasize the need for effective
nutrient pollution control measures. Consequently, a potential reduction Declaration of Competing Interest
in threats to biodiversity can be achieved through a decrease in water
pollution caused by nutrients, which may also indirectly benefit liveli­ The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
hoods by improving the water environmental quality and providing interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
healthier water resources. Due to the accumulation of negative impacts the work reported in this paper.
on ecosystems, inadequate ecological water, and a lack of resources and
initiatives to create solid water ecological achievements, the balance of Data availability
water ecological system is under stress. A healthy water ecological
environment and stable ecosystem services provide an important Data will be made available on request.

12
F. Zhou et al. Ecological Indicators 154 (2023) 110874

Acknowledgment of China [grant number 41877531].

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation

Appendix A

Table 1 List of acronyms, symbols, and abbreviations.

Abbreviations Indicator

TGRA Three Gorges Reservoir Area

WCC water resources - water environment - water ecology carrying capacity
WRECC water resources carrying capacity
WENCC water environment carrying capacity
WECCC water ecological carrying capacity
CCI coupling coordination indices

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