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2018-2027 Biselco PSPP
2018-2027 Biselco PSPP
2018-2027 Biselco PSPP
(BISELCO)
Mabintangen Road, Brgy. Pob. 6, Coron, Palawan
POWER SUPPLY
PROCUREMENT
PLAN (PSPP)
FY 2018
An Integral Part of BISELCO’s Distribution Development Plan (DDP)
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Contents
Introduction ________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1
Energy and Demand Forecast _____________________________________________________________________________ 3
Energy Demand and Forecast _____________________________________________________________________________ 4
LOAD PROFILE AND LOAD DURATION CURVE __________________________________________________________ 6
EXISTING POWER SUPPLY CONTRACTS _________________________________________________________________ 9
SUPPLY VS DEMAND ______________________________________________________________________________________11
DISTRIBUTION IMPACT STUDY__________________________________________________________________________12
SCHEDULE OF CSP ________________________________________________________________________________________13
TIMELINE OF CSP _________________________________________________________________________________________14
INTRODUCTION
Introduction
DU PROFILE
BISELCO Franchise covers the entire Calamian Group of Islands located on the northern Palawan. The
Calamian Group of Islands, also called the Calamianes, consist of over 80 islands and islets located 200
nautical miles southwest of Manila. Figure below shows the franchise map of BISELCO. Energized areas are
indicated by yellow color, they are connected to BISELCO’s grid, while green indicates areas currently
unenergized (mostly islands).
Busuanga Island is the largest island in the Calamian Group. Within the island are two neighboring
municipalities namely Coron and Busuanga. Coron is the major energy sales generating area on the three
islands. Busuanga Island covers two municipalities namely Coron and Busuanga.
Page 1
INTRODUCTION
The other two Islands are Culion and Linapacan Islands. Culion Island is two hours by pumpboat while
Linapacan Island is five hours. Coron town is the commercial business and transportation center on the
Calamianes Group where rapid commercialization is going on with the increasing volume of tourists flocking
each year especially during summer.
It was classified as Medium Electric Cooperative and was categorized by NEA as AAA electric cooperative
last 2017 due to its satisfactory performance indicated by the following:
Among sixty-one barangays covered by BISELCO sixteen are still unenergized mostly island barangays. With
the implementation of DOE’s PV mainstreaming, three thousand seven hundred eleven households mostly
on these island barangays are schedule to be energized this year 2018.
Page 2
ENERGY AND DEMAND FORECAST
There was also increase in energy consumption in the island of Culion when the NPC_SPUG started to
increase its operating hours for twelve (12) to 24 hours on the year 2015.
Meanwhile, there is no significant energy consumption growth in the island of Linapacan since the number
of operating hours in still twelve hours up to this date.
10-YEARS HISTORICAL
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Energy Purchased
6,515 8,100 9,531 9,668 10,889 12,088 14,954 20,169 24,135 29,855
(Mwhr)
Energy Sales
5,670 7,099 8,415 8,585 9,747 10,680 13,147 17,539 21,517 26,573
(Mwhr)
System's Loss
845 1,001 1,116 1,082 1,142 1,407 1,807 2,631 2,618 3,282
(Mwhr)
10-YEARS FORECAST
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Energy Purchased
35,147 38,855 44,848 49,042 53,804 58,607 63,795 69,385 75,387 81,813
(Mwhr)
Energy Sales
31,703 35,276 40,812 44,678 49,069 53,508 58,309 63,487 69,055 75,023
(Mwhr)
BISELCO considered an aggressive forecast on its projection on energy consumption due to increasing
commercial viability of area manifested by continuous construction of hotel buildings specially in the
island of Busuanga.
Page 3
ENERGY DEMAND AND FORECAST
PEAK DEMAND
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
BUSUANGA/
6.567 7.053 8.154 8.922 9.793 10.674 11.627 12.654 13.758 14.941
CORON (MW)
CULION (MW) 0.527 0.553 0.585 0.625 0.673 0.730 0.797 0.876 0.966 1.068
LINAPACAN (MW) 0.160 0.174 0.188 0.202 0.216 0.229 0.243 0.256 0.269 0.283
TOTAL 7.254 7.780 8.928 9.749 10.682 11.633 12.667 13.785 14.993 16.292
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028
Year
Page 4
ENERGY DEMAND AND FORECAST
1.00
Peak Demand (MW)
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028
Year
0.250
Peak Demand (MW)
0.200
0.150
0.100
0.050
-
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028
Year
BISELCO preferred to use Regression Analysis on its forecasting methodology. There were up to 130
polynomial equations used and among these models that passed the validity and accuracy tests, the best and
most realistic model was chosen. Because each Island Grid has different economic growth, forecast was done
separately for each of the islands.
Page 5
LOAD PROFILE AND LOAD DURATION CURVE
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
-
2200H
1300H
0400H
0100H
1600H
0700H
2200H
1300H
0400H
1900H
1000H
0100H
1600H
0700H
2200H
1300H
0400H
1900H
1000H
0100H
1600H
0700H
1900H
1000H
0100H
1600H
0700H
2200H
1300H
2017 Busuanga/Coron Load Duration Curve (MW)
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
LOAD (MW)
2,000
1,000
-
1
3235
5545
1387
1849
2311
2773
3697
4159
4621
5083
6007
6469
6931
7393
7855
8317
463
925
Page 6
Page 7
-
-
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.10
0.20
0.50
0.60
0.30
0.40
1 0100H
1600H
326
0700H
651 2200H
976 1300H
1301 0400H
1626 1900H
CULION & LINAPACAN
1951 1000H
2276 0100H
2601 1600H
0700H
2926
2200H
3251 1300H
3576 0400H
3901 1900H
4226 1000H
4551 0100H
4876 1600H
5201 0700H
2200H
5526
1300H
5851 0400H
6176 1900H
6501 1000H
6826 0100H
7151 1600H
2017 Culion Load Profile (MW)
7476 0700H
2200H
2017 Culion Load Duration Curve (MW)
7801
1300H
8126
0400H
8451 1900H
1000H
0100H
1600H
0700H
LOAD PROFILE AND LOAD DURATION CURVE
2200H
1300H
0400H
LOAD (MW)
LOAD PROFILE AND LOAD DURATION CURVE
0400H
1900H
1000H
0100H
0100H
1900H
1600H
1300H
1000H
0700H
0400H
0100H
2200H
1900H
1600H
1300H
1000H
0700H
0400H
0100H
2200H
1900H
1600H
1300H
1000H
0700H
0100H
2200H
1600H
1300H
0700H
0400H
2200H
1900H
1600H
1300H
LOAD (MW)
7801
8126
8451
1301
1626
1951
2276
2601
2926
3251
3576
3901
4226
4551
4876
5201
5526
5851
6176
6501
6826
7151
7476
326
651
976
With the pending application for 20-year term Power Supply Agreement between BISELCO and Culna
Renewable Energy Corporation (CREC), BISELCO for now assumes that the baseload and peaking
requirements for the island of Culion and Linapacan will be sufficient during the entire term of the PSA.
However, BISELCO believes that there is a big possibility that the load growth trend will be most probably be
transformer into an aggressive when a much reliable power supply is already established on these two
municipalities.
Page 8
EXISTING POWER SUPPLY CONTRACTS
Base/ Grid
Coron Power Station CIPC 0.85 20-Aug-14 20-Aug-29 6.334 NPP OPERATIONAL HFO 8.12 6.334
Peaking Connected
Grid
Busuanga Power Station CIPC 0.85 8-Dec-13 8-Dec-28 0.608 Peaking NPP OPERATIONAL LFO 0.7 0.608
Connected
Base/ Grid
Culion Diesel Power Plant NPC-SPUG 25-Dec-18 25-Dec-21 693 3,189 NPC OPERATIONAL LFO 0.63
Peaking Connected
Base/ Grid
Linapacan Diesel Power Plant NPC-SPUG 25-Dec-18 25-Dec-21 174 617 NPC OPERATIONAL LFO
Peaking Connected
BISELCO-CIPC PSA
After several Competitive Selection Process transactions and extensive negotiations, BISELCO and CIPC
entered a fifteen (15) – year PSA on August 8, 2011 as amended on December 20, 2011.
ERC Case No. 2012-05 RC or Petition for Approval of Power Supply Agreement and Amendatory Agreement
and NPP True Cost Generation Rate (NPP_TCGR) with Provisional Authority was jointly filed by BISELCO
and CIPC to the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) on January 16, 2012. The ERC issued its approval on
December 10, 2012.
The Agreements have term of Fifteen (15) years from the Commercial Operations Date
(COD). CIPC constructed two power stations each for the municipalities of Busuanga and
Coron. Busuanga Power Station COD is December 8, 2013; Coron Power Station (CPS) COD
is August 20, 2014).
CPS is the principal generating facility with a Net Dependable Capacity of 6.334 MW Bunker
Fired engines and provides the full-service requirements of BISELCO (Baseload,
Intermediate and Peaking) as well as its related ancillary requirements (Back-up and
Spinning Reserves). It operates on 24/7 basis throughout the fifteen (15) – year term of the
PSA.
BPS will be the secondary generating facility with a Net Dependable Capacity of 0.608 MW
Diesel Engines and provides the peaking and voltage regulation requirements for the
Municipality of Busuanga. It is expected to operate during peak hours of each day
throughout the fifteen (15) -year term of PSA.
Page 9
EXISTING POWER SUPPLY CONTRACTS
The Agreements do not stipulate Minimum Energy Off-take (MEOT). However, a first
priority dispatch for CIPC is indicated therein, a Net Expected Energy (NEE) of 18,302,156
kWh per annum and Maximum Deliverable Energy (MDE) of 37,200,000 kWh per annum.
In the event that the actual downtime of the power stations exceeds the allowable
downtime and CIPC fails to deliver the NEE per annum, CIPC shall provide alternative power
and bear the positive difference between the generation cost of the alternative power
supplier/s and true cost of generation.
BISELCO-NPC-SPUG PSA
The existing PSA between BISELCO and NPC_SPUG for Culion and Linapacan Diesel Power Plants
expired last year-2017. Negotiations for 4-year PSA Renewal (2019-2022) for the island of Culion and
Linapacan is currently ongoing, anticipating the entry of NPP, the Calamian Islands Renewable Energy Corp.
(CREC). BISELCO-CREC 20-year term PSA is currently being applied to ERC for approval.
Currently approved SAGR for BISELCO is 4.024 Php/kWhr effective only last April 2018. BISELCO
is included on Other Luzon Group 1 Area of NPC-SPUG.
Page 10
SUPPLY VS DEMAND
SUPPLY VS DEMAND
Supply Demand ACTUAL FORECAST
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Peak Demand, MW 5.858 7.254 7.780 8.928 9.749 10.682 11.633 12.667 13.785 14.993 16.292
Supply Contracted, MW 7.692 6.942 6.942 6.942 6.942 6.942 6.942 6.942 6.942 6.942 6.942
Calamian Islands Power Corporation -
6.334 6.334 6.334 6.334 6.334 6.334 6.334 6.334 6.334 6.334 6.334
Coron Power Station
Calamian Islands Power Corporation -
0.608 0.608 0.608 0.608 0.608 0.608 0.608 0.608 0.608 0.608 0.608
Busuanga Power Station
0.63
NPC-SPUG Culion Diesel Power Plant
NPC-SPUG Linapacan Diesel Power
0.12
Plant
Supply for PSA Approval, MW - - - 2.953 2.953 2.953 2.953 2.953 2.953 2.953
CULNA Renewable Energy
2.415 2.415 2.415 2.415 2.415 2.415 2.415
Corporation (CREC) - Culion Power
CULNA Renewable Energy
0.538 0.538 0.538 0.538 0.538 0.538 0.538
Corporation (CREC) - Linapacan
Uncontracted Demand, MW - 0.312 0.838 1.986 - 0.787 1.738 2.772 3.890 5.098 6.397
Page 11
DISTRIBUTION IMPACT STUDY
Using the scenarios required by the Philippine Distribution Code (PDC) on the conducto of DIS, the
condition of the island’s distribution system was assessed based on thermal, voltage, and short circuit
performance as it conforms with the requirements of the PDC.
1.) By years 2018 and 2023, the grid with the power plants will not expirienace overloading and
over/undervoltages;
2.) By the year 2028, maximum loading of the lines during system peak will roughly be 80%. Low
voltages at the extreme ends of the lines are expected,
3.) To address the expected low voltage problems in year 2028, capacitors will need to be
installed. The generators will be able to regulate voltages during off-peak even with capacitors
installed.
4. BISELCO will need to upgrade its lines from Coron to Busuanga to minimize the real power
losses by 20 kW. This will be funded through Capital expenditure Projects (CAPEX).
5. Installation of Solar Plant will improve voltage regulation in the vicinity. No line improvement
will be needed for the connection of the Solar Plant at its proposed location.
Short circuit studies indicated that fault levels of the buses in the system will no increase beyond the
standard interrupting capacity of protection equipment.
In general, DIS suggests that a diesel-solar-battery plant could be connected to BISELCO’s distribution
system without violating the standard thermal, voltage and short circuit performance. Based on the
forecasted demand, the said diesel-solar-battery hybrid power plant could support the power requirements
of the island up to 2028.
Page 12
SCHEDULE OF CSP
SCHEDULE OF CSP
BUSUANG ISLAND GRID
Current NPP on Busuanga Island Grid has a total Net Dependable Capacity of 6.942 MW. This capacity is no
longer sufficient this year 2019 if N-1 reliability criteria is concerned. Without the largest unit, there will be
a 1.613 MW capacity deficit by 2019. This prompts BISELCO to conduct emergency power procurement in
order to maintain adequate reserve while waiting for a long term power supply.
Additional capacity is expected as early as 2021. For Coron & Busuanga BISELCO plans to have another CSP
by 2027 as indicated on the table below:
2029
(end of
Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 PSA with
existing
NPP)
Base 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800
Peaking 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640
Reserve 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400
Additional Capacity 1 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000
Additional Capacity 2 9,000 9,000 9,000
Peak Demand 6,567 7,053 8,154 8,922 9,793 10,674 11,627 12,654 13,758 14,941 15,799 16,600
SURPLUS (w/o N-1) 1,273 787 (314) 7,918 7,047 6,166 5,213 4,186 3,082 10,899 10,041 25,840
SURPLUS (w/ N-1) (1,127) (1,613) (2,714) 5,518 4,647 3,766 2,813 1,786 682 8,499 7,641 6,840
Expiration of contract on the existing NPP and N-1 reliability criteria is considered on the timing of capacity
additions.
Page 13
TIMELINE OF CSP
TIMELINE OF CSP
For CSP Proposed contract Proposed schedule (MM/YYYY)
Base /
Publicati Submissi
mid- Start End Pre-bid Joint
Demand Energy on of on and Bid PSA
merit / Month Month Conferen Awarding Applicati
(MW) (MWh) Invitation Opening Evaluation Signing
peaking and Year and Year ce on to ERC
to Bid of Bids
Base /
mid-merit 9,000 363,054 01/2020 01/2034 03/2019 04/2019 05/2019 05/2019 06/2019 07/2019 08/2019
/ peaking
Page 14
10-YEAR MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA
Page 15
10-YEAR MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA
2011
Jan 2.09 772 712
Feb 2.21 494 437
Mar 2.21 820 661
Apr 2.41 968 867
May 2.41 995 888
Jun 2.48 794 742
Jul 2.31 791 681
Aug 2.22 721 616
Sep 2.19 809 792
Oct 2.46 569 464
Nov 2.40 972 877
Dec 2.56 964.407 848.150
TOTAL 9,668 8,585
2012
Jan 2.39 967 900
Feb 2.53 893 763
Mar 2.53 893 794
Apr 2.75 1,000 917
May 2.75 940 833
Jun 2.83 879 777
Jul 2.64 771 724
Aug 2.54 764 650
Sep 2.51 874 801
Oct 2.81 913 797
Nov 2.74 1,024 898
Dec 2.93 970 893
TOTAL 10,889 9,747
2013
Jan 2.59 935 779
Feb 2.74 805 741
Mar 2.74 1,068 872
Apr 2.99 1,310 1,162
May 2.99 1,200 1,090
Jun 3.07 1,081 1,004
Jul 2.86 1,113 973
Aug 2.75 1,143 1,070
Sep 2.72 1,138 971
Oct 3.04 1,130 922
Nov 2.97 549 509
Dec 3.17 617 588
TOTAL 12,088 10,680
Page 16
10-YEAR MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA
2014
Jan 3.43 975 737
Feb 3.63 969 935
Mar 3.63 1,038 899
Apr 3.95 1,310 1,111
May 3.95 1,330 1,197
Jun 4.07 1,272 1,196
Jul 3.79 1,081 999
Aug 3.64 1,307 1,051
Sep 3.60 1,299 1,144
Oct 4.03 1,385 1,248
Nov 3.94 1,505 1,305
Dec 4.20 1,483 1,325
TOTAL 14,954 13,147
2015
Jan 3.68 1,457 1,277
Feb 3.89 1,468 1,264
Mar 3.89 1,401 1,299
Apr 4.23 1,731 1,582
May 4.24 1,832 1,546
Jun 4.36 1,850 1,627
Jul 4.06 1,581 1,325
Aug 3.90 1,693 1,459
Sep 3.86 1,762 1,585
Oct 4.32 1,691 1,544
Nov 4.22 1,881 1,630
Dec 4.50 1,821 1,401
TOTAL 20,169 17,539
2016
Jan 3.95 1,886 1,748
Feb 4.18 1,891 1,663
Mar 4.18 1,893 1,681
Apr 4.55 2,166 1,888
May 4.55 2,229 1,975
Jun 4.68 2,160 1,924
Jul 4.36 1,901 1,726
Aug 4.19 1,891 1,750
Sep 4.14 2,006 1,791
Oct 4.64 1,884 1,696
Nov 4.53 2,155 1,896
Dec 4.84 2,072 1,779
TOTAL 24,135 21,517
Page 17
10-YEAR MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA
2017
Jan 4.95 2,266 2,073
Feb 4.94 2,284 1,992
Mar 5.11 2,151 1,942
Apr 5.15 2,619 2,253
May 5.31 2,711 2,382
Jun 5.23 2,699 2,445
Jul 4.899 2,312 2,083
Aug 5.092 2,476 2,212
Sep 5.018 2,514 2,262
Oct 5.416 2,434 2,183
Nov 5.789 2,741 2,401
Dec 5.858 2,646 2,347
TOTAL 29,855 26,573
Page 18
10-YEAR MONTHLY FORECAST DATA
Page 19
10-YEAR MONTHLY FORECAST DATA
2021
Jan 9.05 3,216.00
Feb 8.74 3,089.61
Mar 9.01 3,011.10
Apr 9.05 3,495.29
May 9.35 3,696.02
Jun 9.21 3,794.23
Jul 8.58 3,230.52
Aug 9.01 3,432.80
Sep 8.87 3,510.39
Oct 9.36 3,387.80
Nov 9.58 3,727.38
Dec 9.75 3,643.16
2022
Jan 9.91 3,538.40
Feb 9.58 3,399.33
Mar 9.87 3,312.96
Apr 9.92 3,845.69
May 10.24 4,066.53
Jun 10.10 4,174.60
Jul 9.41 3,554.37
Aug 9.87 3,776.93
Sep 9.72 3,862.30
Oct 10.25 3,727.42
Nov 10.50 4,101.05
Dec 10.68 4,008.38
2023
Jan 10.80 3,861.20
Feb 10.43 3,709.44
Mar 10.75 3,615.19
Apr 10.80 4,196.51
May 11.15 4,437.51
Jun 10.99 4,555.43
Jul 10.24 3,878.63
Aug 10.75 4,121.49
Sep 10.58 4,214.64
Oct 11.17 4,067.46
Nov 11.43 4,475.17
Dec 11.63 4,374.05
Page 20
10-YEAR MONTHLY FORECAST DATA
2024
Jan 11.75 4,208.60
Feb 11.36 4,043.19
Mar 11.71 3,940.45
Apr 11.76 4,574.08
May 12.14 4,836.76
Jun 11.97 4,965.29
Jul 11.15 4,227.59
Aug 11.71 4,492.30
Sep 11.52 4,593.84
Oct 12.16 4,433.42
Nov 12.45 4,877.81
Dec 12.67 4,767.59
2025
Jan 12.79 4,581.41
Feb 12.36 4,401.35
Mar 12.74 4,289.51
Apr 12.80 4,979.27
May 13.22 5,265.22
Jun 13.03 5,405.14
Jul 12.14 4,602.09
Aug 12.74 4,890.25
Sep 12.54 5,000.78
Oct 13.23 4,826.15
Nov 13.55 5,309.91
Dec 13.79 5,189.92
Page 21
10-YEAR MONTHLY FORECAST DATA
2026
Jan 13.91 4,980.26
Feb 13.44 4,784.52
Mar 13.86 4,662.95
Apr 13.92 5,412.75
May 14.37 5,723.60
Jun 14.17 5,875.70
Jul 13.20 5,002.73
Aug 13.86 5,315.98
Sep 13.64 5,436.13
Oct 14.39 5,246.30
Nov 14.74 5,772.17
Dec 14.99 5,641.74
2027
Jan 15.12 5,405.61
Feb 14.61 5,193.16
Mar 15.06 5,061.20
Apr 15.13 5,875.05
May 15.62 6,212.44
Jun 15.40 6,377.53
Jul 14.34 5,430.01
Aug 15.06 5,770.01
Sep 14.82 5,900.42
Oct 15.64 5,694.37
Nov 16.01 6,265.16
Dec 16.29 6,123.59
Page 22