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XOM 3Q23 Earnings Deck - Final
XOM 3Q23 Earnings Deck - Final
Third-quarter
Differentiated execution
earnings driving strong results
10.27.23
Important information for investors and stockholders
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Cautionary statement
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. Statements of future events, conditions, expectations, plans, or ambitions in this presentation or the subsequent discussion period are forward-
looking statements. Similarly, discussions of future carbon capture, transportation, and storage, as well as biofuels, hydrogen, and other plans to reduce emissions of ExxonMobil, its
affiliates, or companies it is seeking to acquire, are dependent on future market factors, such as continued technological progress, policy support and timely rule-making and permitting,
and represent forward-looking statements. Actual future results, including financial and operating performance; potential earnings, cash flow, and rates of return; total capital expenditures
and mix, including allocations of capital to low carbon solutions; structural earnings improvement and structural cost reductions and efficiency gains, including the ability to offset
inflationary pressures; ambitions to reach Scope 1 and Scope 2 net zero from operated assets by 2050, plans to reach net zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions in Upstream Permian Basin
unconventional operated assets by 2030 and by 2035 for Pioneer assets, eliminating routine flaring in-line with World Bank Zero Routine Flaring, reaching near-zero methane emissions
from its operations, meeting ExxonMobil’s emission reduction plans and goals, divestment and start-up plans, and associated project plans as well as technology efforts; success in or
timing of future business markets like carbon capture, transportation and storage, hydrogen or biofuels; maintenance and turnaround activity; drilling and improvement programs; price and
margin recovery; shareholder distributions; planned integration benefits; resource recoveries and production rates; and product sales levels and mix could differ materially due to a number
of factors. These include global or regional changes in oil, gas, petrochemicals, or feedstock prices, differentials, seasonal fluctuations, or other market factors, economic conditions or
seasonal fluctuations affecting the oil, gas, and petrochemical industries and the demand for our products; government policies supporting lower carbon investment opportunities such as
the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act or policies limiting the attractiveness of investments such as European taxes on the energy sector; variable impacts of trading activities each quarter; policy
and consumer support for emission-reduction products and technology; the outcome of competitive bidding and project wins; regulatory actions targeting public companies in the oil and
gas industry; changes in local, national, or international laws, regulations, and policies affecting our business including with respect to the environment; taxes, trade sanctions, and actions
taken in response to pandemic concerns; the ability to realize efficiencies within and across our business lines and to maintain current cost reductions as efficiencies without impairing our
competitive positioning; the outcome and timing of exploration and development projects; decisions to invest in future reserves; reservoir performance, including variability in
unconventional projects; the level and outcome of exploration projects and decisions to invests in future resources; timely completion of construction projects; war, civil unrest, attacks
against the company or industry, and other political or security disturbances; expropriations, seizures, and capacity, insurance or shipping limitations by foreign governments or
international embargoes; changes in consumer preferences; opportunities for and regulatory approval of investments or divestments that may arise, such as the Denbury and Pioneer
acquisitions; the outcome of our or competitors’ research efforts and the ability to bring new technology to commercial scale on a cost-competitive basis; the development and
competitiveness of alternative energy and emission reduction technologies; unforeseen technical or operating difficulties including the need for unplanned maintenance; and other factors
discussed here and in Item 1A. Risk Factors of our Annual Report on Form 10-K and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” available through the Investors page of our
website at exxonmobil.com. All forward-looking statements are based on management’s knowledge and reasonable expectations at the time of this presentation and we assume no duty
to update these statements as of any future date. Neither future distribution of this material nor the continued availability of this material in archive form on our website should be deemed
to constitute an update or re-affirmation of these figures as of any future date. Any future update of these figures will be provided only through a public disclosure indicating that fact.
The Pioneer transaction (merger) referenced throughout this presentation is subject to customary regulatory reviews and approvals, and approval by Pioneer shareholders.
Reconciliations and definitions of non-GAAP and other terms are provided in the text or in the supplemental information accompanying these slides beginning on page 25.
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Meeting society's needs and growing shareholder value
Leading Performance | Essential Partner | Advantaged Portfolio | Innovative Solutions | Meaningful Development
• $9.1 billion of earnings driven by strong operational performance, structural earnings improvements, and favorable
market conditions
• Growing shareholder returns
- Declared 4Q dividend of $0.95 per share, a 4% increase; 41 st consecutive year of increased annual dividend payments
- On track to complete $17.5 billion of share repurchases in 2023
• Growing energy supply and essential product volumes to help meet society’s evolving needs
- Highest 3Q refinery throughput on record2
- Start-up of 750 Kta of additional performance chemicals production capacity in Baytown
1Expected to leverage Permian GHG reduction plans to accelerate Pioneer’s net-zero emissions plan to 2035 from 2050; plan to lower both companies’ Permian methane emissions through new technology application.
2Highest third-quarter global refinery throughput (2000-2023) since Exxon and Mobil merger in 1999, based on current refinery circuit.
See page 8 and Supplemental information for definitions and reconciliations. 4
Global Projects: unmatched capability and scale
1Based on ExxonMobil analysis of projects funded since formation of Global Projects using historical benchmarking results from Independent Project Analysis (IPA).
See Supplemental information for definitions. 5
Record total liquids demand and low inventories
shaped favorable market conditions
Industry prices / margins
10-year annual range1 • Crude prices increased on strong demand and lower
inventory levels
$9.1 B
$1.2 billion higher than 2Q 2023
$9.0 B
vs. 2019; achieved our goal ahead
3.7 Moebd
consistent with full-year guidance
of schedule
$16.0
Increased cash balance by
B $18.6 B
Expect full year capex to be at top of
$0.95 per share
Distributed >$8 billion to
$3.4 billion $23-$25 billion guidance range shareholders
2Q23 GAAP Earnings / (Loss) $4.6 $2.3 $0.8 $0.7 ($0.5) $7.9
3Q23 Earnings / (Loss) ex. identified items (non-GAAP) $6.1 $2.5 $0.2 $0.6 ($0.4) $9.1
3Q23 GAAP Earnings / (Loss) $6.1 $2.4 $0.2 $0.6 ($0.4) $9.1
Upstream
Contributing factors to change in volumes • ~80 Koebd of growth from Permian, Guyana, and LNG
Koebd, net partially offset by base decline1
3,716 30 3,688
50
(150) 40 • 380 Kbd full-year gross production expected in Guyana
- 20 Kbd above prior projections on early start-up of
Payara and increased production from debottlenecking
60
$ 3,452 • Delivered record 3Q refinery throughput1
220
(160) (340)
• Expenses down on lower planned maintenance
1,040 (640)
$ 2,475
$ 2,292 • Other reflects absence of favorable inventory
adjustments following sale of Billings refinery in
prior quarter as well as unfavorable forex
2Q23 Margin Volume Expenses Other 3Q23 ex. Unsettled Price / 3Q23 • Rising crude prices also triggered trading
ex. ident. / mix derivative derivatives timing ex. ident.
items and price MTM items
related impacts that are largely non-cash and
timing will unwind over time
1Highest third-quarter global refinery throughput (2000-2023) since Exxon and Mobil merger in 1999, based on current refinery circuit.
See page 8 and Supplemental information for definitions and reconciliations. 11
Chemical Products: structural improvements underpin
earnings as industry feed costs increase globally
Chemical Products
Contributing factors to change in earnings • Generating positive earnings and cash flow despite
Million USD historically low industry market conditions
$ 828
• Margins compressed as supply continued to outpace
demand and industry feed costs increased globally
(30)
$ 249 • Expenses consistent with higher turnaround activity
150 (30)
$ 671
(60) 10 60 (60) $ 619 • Expenses down on disciplined cost control
(5.2) 0.9
• 17% debt-to-capital; 4% net debt-to-capital
16.0 (8.1)
$ 33.0 • $8.1 billion distributed to shareholders
(0.2)
$ 29.6
• Declared 4Q dividend of $0.95 per share, an increase of
$0.04 versus 3Q
1Includes PP&E additions of ($4.9) billion and net investments / advances of ($0.3) billion in third quarter 2023.
See Supplemental information for definitions and reconciliations. 14
4Q23 outlook
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Pioneer transaction transforms Upstream portfolio
Announced transaction presentation available on the Investors page of the company’s website at www.exxonmobil.com.
See Supplemental information for definitions. 16
Pre-tax synergies average ~$2 billion per year
over next decade
Spraberry/Wolfcamp Resource Density
• Pioneer’s Midland resource is the highest quality in the basin
Resource
Density
High - Notably better than ExxonMobil’s Midland acreage
• Average synergies of ~$2 billion per year over the next decade with
modest benefits in first 2 years increasing continuously over the period
- ~$1.3 billion per year from ~1 Boeb increase in total recoverable resource
- ~$0.7 billion per year from ~15% reduction in total development cost
cubes cubes - Cube development achieving 30-50% higher NPV vs. best-bench
development despite lower initial well production rates1
100%
15 100%
cubes - Industry, including Pioneer, now following similar approach
cubes 100%
cubes
Pioneer
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ExxonMobil • Across Midland basin, ExxonMobil’s cubes deliver similar recovery to
2020 2021 2022 Pioneer despite notably lower-quality acreage
Source: Enverus.
15
• Anticipate optimized future development plan, including ExxonMobil’s
cube technology, will achieve additional ~1 Boeb in ultimate recovery
10 - ~$1.3 billion per year average synergies in first 10 years with cost-of-
Pioneer Peer 1 ExxonMobil supply under $35/bbl
Source: Enverus.
20 15
Pioneer
ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil
Industry: CVX, COP, DVN, EOG, OXY, FANG Industry: OXY, CVX, COP, Endeavor, FANG, OVV
10 10
2020 2021 2022 YTD 2023 2020 2021 2022 YTD 2023
Source: Kayrros satellite benchmarking data. Source: Kayrros satellite benchmarking data.
• ~$0.4 billion per year from application of ExxonMobil’s drilling capabilities and well design that reduce well costs by ~10%
• ~$0.2 billion per year from application of ExxonMobil’s success in drilling longer laterals that reduce number of wells
• ~$0.1 billion per year from general and administrative expense savings
See Supplemental information for definitions. 19
Key takeaways: differentiated execution driving
strong results
• Delivered strong operational performance in a favorable market environment
• Continued to leverage unmatched scale and integration; structural savings on track to exceed $9 billion by year-end
• Strong cash flows and balance sheet continue to support robust shareholder distributions
• Acquisition of Denbury creating value by accelerating profitable growth in Low Carbon Solutions
• Pioneer transaction expected to generate double-digit returns by recovering more resource, more efficiently, while
accelerating emissions reductions1
1Expected to leverage Permian GHG reduction plans to accelerate Pioneer’s net-zero emissions plan to 2035 from 2050; plan to lower both companies’ Permian methane emissions through new technology application.
See Supplemental information for definitions and reconciliations. 20
Q&A
10.27.23
Upcoming disclosures:
Corporate Plan Update on
Wednesday, December 6th, at 9:00 a.m. (CDT)
Chemical Products scheduled maintenance earnings impact2 Specialty Products scheduled maintenance earnings impact4
Million USD Million USD
300 60 55
~250 230 ~50 +15
+40 ~40
200 ~190
~170 ~40 ~30
~150 +20 210 +5 45
30
100
0 0
2022 quarterly 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 est. 2022 quarterly 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 est.
average average
See Supplemental information for footnotes. 22
Upstream: maintaining strong production levels
Upstream
Contributing factors to change in volumes
• Higher sequential production driven by lower scheduled
Koebd, net maintenance
ExxonMobil reported emissions, including reductions and avoidance performance data, are based on a combination of measured and estimated data. Calculations are based
on industry standards and best practices, including guidance from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and Ipieca. Emissions reported are estimates only, and performance
data depends on variations in processes and operations, the availability of sufficient data, the quality of those data and methodology used for measurement and estimation.
Emissions data is subject to change as methods, data quality, and technology improvements occur, and changes to performance data may be updated. Emissions, reductions
and avoidance estimates for non-ExxonMobil operated facilities are included in the equity data and similarly may be updated as changes in the performance data are
reported. ExxonMobil’s plans to reduce emissions are good faith efforts based on current relevant data and methodology, which could be changed or refined. ExxonMobil
works to continuously improve its approach to identifying, measuring and addressing emissions. ExxonMobil actively engages with industry, including API and Ipieca, to
improve emission factors and methodologies, including measurements and estimates.
All references to production rates, project capacity, resource size, and acreage are on a net basis, unless otherwise noted.
Actions needed to advance the Company’s 2030 greenhouse gas emission-reductions plans are incorporated into its medium-term business plans, which are updated
annually. Actions needed to advance ExxonMobil’s 2035 greenhouse gas emission-reduction plans for Pioneer assets will be incorporated into its medium-term business
plans in the normal course following closing. The reference case for planning beyond 2030 is based on the Company’s Energy Outlook research and publication. The Outlook
is reflective of the existing global policy environment. The Energy Outlook does not attempt to project the degree of required future policy and technology advancement and
deployment for the world, or ExxonMobil, to meet net zero by 2050. As future policies and technology advancements emerge, they will be incorporated into the Outlook,
and the Company’s business plans will be updated accordingly.
ExxonMobil has business relationships with thousands of customers, suppliers, governments, and others. For convenience and simplicity, words such as venture, joint
venture, partnership, co-venturer, operated by others, and partner are used to indicate business and other relationships involving common activities and interests, and those
words may not indicate precise legal relationships.
See the Cautionary Statement at the front of this presentation for additional information regarding forward-looking statements.
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Supplemental information
26
Supplemental information
27
Supplemental information
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Supplemental information
CALCULATION OF STRUCTURAL COST SAVINGS 2019 2022 YTD 3Q22 YTD 3Q23
Components of operating costs
From ExxonMobil’s Consolidated statement of income (U.S. GAAP)
Production and manufacturing expenses 36.8 42.6 32.2 27.0
Selling, general and administrative expenses 11.4 10.1 7.3 7.3
Depreciation and depletion (includes impairments) 19.0 24.0 19.0 12.9
Exploration expenses, including dry holes 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.6
Non-service pension and postretirement benefit expense 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.5
Subtotal 69.7 78.2 59.5 48.3
ExxonMobil’s share of equity company expenses (Non-GAAP) 9.1 13.0 9.0 7.4
Total adjusted operating costs (Non-GAAP) 78.8 91.2 68.5 55.7
Less:
Depreciation and depletion (includes impairments) 19.0 24.0 19.0 12.9
Non-service pension and postretirement benefit expense 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.5
Other adjustments (includes equity company depreciation and depletion) 3.6 3.5 2.3 2.3
Total cash operating expenses (cash opex) (Non-GAAP) 55.0 63.2 46.8 40.0
Energy and production taxes (Non-GAAP) 11.0 23.8 17.7 11.0
Total cash operating expenses (cash opex) excluding energy and production taxes (Non-GAAP) 44.0 39.4 29.1 29.0
vs. 2019 vs. 2022 Cumulative
Change: -4.6 -0.1
Market +2.7 +0.7
Activity/Other +0.1 +0.8
Structural savings -7.4 -1.6 -9.0
Cash flow from operations excluding working capital is net cash provided by operating activities less changes in operational working capital, excluding cash and debt. This measure is
useful when evaluating cash available for investment in the business and financing activities as operational working capital, excluding cash and debt can vary quarter-to-quarter due to
volatility and changing needs of the corporation. Cash flow from operations excluding working capital is not meant to be viewed in isolation or as a substitute for net cash provided by
operating activities.
Cash capital expenditures (Cash Capex). Sum of Additions to property, plant and equipment, Additional investments and advances, and Other investing activities including collection of
advances from the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows. This measure is useful for investors to understand the current period cash impact of investments in the business.
Free cash flow is the sum of net cash provided by operating activities and net cash flow used in investing activities. This measure is useful when evaluating cash available for financing
activities, including shareholder distributions, after investment in the business. Free cash flow is not meant to be viewed in isolation or as a substitute for net cash provided by operating
activities. For information concerning the calculation and reconciliation of free cash flow for historical periods, please see the Frequently Used Terms available on the Investors page of the
company's website at www.exxonmobil.com under the heading Resources.
Slide 6 Slide 22
1. 10-year range includes 2010-2019, a representative 10-year business cycle which avoids 1. Estimate based on October prices.
the extreme outliers in both directions that the market experienced in the past three years. 2. Estimate based on operating expenses related to turnaround and planned maintenance
2. Source: S&P Global Platts. activities.
3. Source: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). 70%/30% weighting of Henry Hub and TTF price 3. Estimate based on September margins and operating expenses related to turnaround and
based on the proportion of the reported ICE trade volumes. planned maintenance activities.
4. Source: S&P Global Platts and ExxonMobil analysis. Net margin calculated by industry 4. Estimate based on operating expenses related to turnaround and planned maintenance
capacity weighting of North America (U.S. Gulf Coast Maya – Coking, WTI - Cracking), activities.
Northwest Europe (Brent – Catalytic Cracking), and Singapore (Dubai – Catalytic Cracking)
netted for industry average Opex, energy, and renewable identification numbers (RINS).
5. Source: IHS Markit, Platts, and company estimates. Overall, chemical margin based on Slide 24
industry capacity weighting of polyethylene, polypropylene, and paraxylene. Polyethylene 1. Represents ExxonMobil analysis of earnings potential contribution from strategic projects
margin based on industry capacity weighting by region, grouped by feedstock (North based on 10-year average Energy, Chemical, and Specialty Product margins (2010-2019)
America + Middle East, Europe, Asia Pacific). Polypropylene margin based on industry except for the following projects: Strathcona Renewable Diesel, Advanced Recycling, Next
capacity weighting by region, grouped by feedstock (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific + Renewable Fuels, Proxxima where the project economic margin basis was used. Project list
Middle East). includes projects that may not yet been fully funded but are included in the corporate plan.
Earnings exclude identified items.
Slide 18
1. Comparison of ExxonMobil cube development approach versus a leading competitor in
Martin County, Texas. ExxonMobil analysis at 10 percent discount rate and $60/bbl Brent
crude price and $3/mbtu Henry Hub gas prices. Prices are adjusted for inflation from 2023.
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