FOREWORD

Emerging technologies are transforming societies, Our efforts are guided by four observations:
economies, and geopolitics. This moment brings
unparalleled promise and novel risks. In every era, 1. Policymakers need better resources to help
technological advances buoy nations that develop them understand technological develop-
and scale them—helping to save lives, win wars, ments faster, continuously, and more easily
foster greater prosperity, and advance the human
condition. At the same time, history is filled with Technology policy increasingly requires a more
examples where slow-moving governments stifled sophisticated understanding across a broad range
innovation in ways policymakers never intended, of fields and sectors. Indeed, policymakers today
and nefarious actors used technological advances in include an expanding array of decision makers,
ways that inventors never imagined. Technology is a from legislators and executive branch officials in
tool. It is not inherently good or bad. But its use can Washington to state and local governments, inves-
amplify human talent or degrade it, uplift societies tors, and corporate leaders. Too often, government
or repress them, solve vexing challenges or exacer- leaders lack technical expertise to understand sci-
bate them. These effects are sometimes deliberate entific developments, while technologists lack the
but often accidental. policy expertise to consider and build security,
safety, and other societal considerations into their
The stakes of technological developments today are products by design. Key takeaways of this report, for
especially high. Artificial intelligence (AI) is already example, include the following findings that may be
revolutionizing industries, from music to medicine to surprising and even counterintuitive to nonexperts:
the military, and its impact has been likened to the
invention of electricity. Yet AI is just one among many ° Artificial intelligence has received a great deal
technologies that are ushering in profound change. of media attention, but biotechnology could
Fields like synthetic biology, materials science, and ultimately be as transformational to society as
neuroscience hold potential to vastly improve health computing.
care, environmental sustainability, economic growth,
and more. We have experienced moments of major ° Space technologies are increasingly critical to
technological change before. But we have never everyday life, from GPS navigation to banking.
experienced the convergence of so many technol- But space is a planetary resource that is rapidly
ogies with the potential to change so much, so fast. becoming congested and contested—with thou-
sands of new commercial satellites and an esti-
The Stanford Emerging Technology Review (SETR ) mated million pieces of space debris that could
is the first product of a major new Stanford technol- threaten access to these global commons.
ogy education initiative for policymakers. Our goal
is to help both the public and private sectors better ° The most significant challenge to achieving
understand the technologies poised to transform sustainable energy is scale; simply providing
our world so that the United States can seize oppor- a 72-hour supply of backup energy worldwide
tunities, mitigate risks, and ensure that the American would take two hundred years of lithium-ion bat-
innovation ecosystem continues to thrive. tery production.

4
° Cryptocurrencies are not the most important American and Soviet nuclear scientists and policy-
issue in cryptography today, and they are not syn- makers worked together to reduce the risk of acci-
onymous with blockchain, which has widespread dental nuclear war through arms control agreements
applications. and safety measures. Today, China’s rise poses many
new challenges. Yet maintaining a robust global eco-
As these examples suggest, policymakers need system of scientific cooperation remains essential—
better, easy-access resources to help them under- and it does not happen by magic. It takes work,
stand technological basics and new discoveries leadership, and a fundamental commitment to free-
before crises emerge; to focus their attention on the dom to sustain the openness essential for scientific
most important issues; to better assess the policy discovery. Freedom is the fertile soil of innovation,
implications; and to see over the horizon to shape, and it takes many forms: the freedom to criticize a
accelerate, and guide future technological inno- government; to admit failure in a research program
vation and applications. We need a new model of as a step toward future progress; to share findings
technology education for nontechnical leaders. This openly with others; to collaborate across geograph-
report aims to be a first, important step. ical and technical borders with reciprocal access
to talent, knowledge, and resources; and to work
2. America’s global innovation leadership without fear of repression or persecution. In short, it
matters matters whether the innovation ecosystem is led by
democracies or autocracies. The United States has
American innovation leadership is not just impor­tant its flaws and challenges, but this country remains the
for the nation’s economy and security. It is the linch- best guarantor of scientific freedom in the world.
pin for maintaining a dynamic global technology
innovation ecosystem and securing its benefits. 3. Academia’s role in American innovation is
essential yet increasingly at risk
International scientific collaboration has long been
pivotal to fostering global peace, progress, and The US innovation ecosystem has three pillars: the
prosperity, even in times of intense geopolitical government, the private sector, and the academy.
competition. During the Cold War, for example, Success requires that all three remain robust and

The United States has its flaws and

challenges, but this country remains the best
guarantor of scientific freedom in the world.

FOREWORD 5
 actively engaged. Throughout history, America’s commercialized in the foreseeable future. Research
research universities have generated transforma- universities, by contrast, operate on much longer
tional scientific discoveries, from the invention of time horizons without regard for profit, engaging in
the polio vaccine to rocket fuel. Universities have fundamental research at the frontiers of knowledge
also been the seedbeds of policy innovations, from that has little if any foreseeable commercial benefit.
nuclear deterrence theory to behavioral economics. This fundamental research is the foundation for future
And they have played a vital role in training the next applications that may take years, even decades,
generation. to emerge. The “overnight success” of the COVID
mRNA vaccine in 2021, for example, was the result
Today, however, innovations are increasingly emerg- of thirty years of university research. Similarly, it took
ing from the private sector, often alongside aca- decades of research in number theory—a branch of
demia. The funding sources for innovation have pure mathematics—to develop the modern cryptog-
shifted, too—in deeply worrying ways. The US raphy that is widely used to protect data.
government is the only funder capable of making
large and risky investments in the basic science con- Today, technology and talent are migrating from aca-
ducted at universities (and national laboratories) demia to the private sector, accelerating the devel-
that is essential for future applications. Yet federal opment of commercial products while eroding the
research and development (R&D) funding has plum- foundation for the future. We are already reaching
meted since the 1960s, from 1.86 percent of GDP in a tipping point in AI. In 2020, two-thirds of students
1964 to just 0.66 percent of GDP in 2016.1 Although who received PhDs in artificial intelligence at US uni-
private sector investment in technology companies versities took industry jobs, leaving fewer faculty to
and associated university research has increased teach the next generation (see figure F.1).3 Only a
substantially, it is no substitute; federal funding of handful of the world’s largest companies have both
university research leads universities to study dif- the talent and the enormous compute power nec-
ferent technological challenges and opportunities essary for developing sophisticated large language
than industry funding does. As a Council on Foreign models like GPT-4. No university comes close.
Relations innovation task force report concluded:
These trends have several concerning implications.4
U.S. leadership in science and technology is Among them: Research in the field is likely to be
at risk because of a decades-long stagnation skewed to applications driven by commercial rather
in federal support and funding for research than public interests. The ability for universities—or
and development. Private-sector invest- anyone outside of the leading AI companies—to
ment has risen, but it is not a substitute for conduct independent analysis of the weaknesses,
federally funded R&D directed at national risks, and vulnerabilities of AI (especially large lan-
economic, strategic, and social concerns.2 guage models recently in the news) will become
more important and simultaneously more difficult.
To be sure, the rising influence of private industry in Further, the more that industry offers unparalleled
innovation brings significant benefits. But it is also talent concentrations, computing power, training
generating serious and more hidden risks to the data, and the most sophisticated models, the more
health of the entire American innovation ecosys- likely it is that future generations of the best AI
tem. Universities and companies are not the same. minds will continue to flock there (see figure F.1)—
Companies must answer to investors and sharehold- hollowing out university faculty and eroding the
ers who expect returns on their capital investments, nation’s ability to conduct broad-ranging founda-
so they tend to focus on technologies that can be tional research in the field.

6 STANFORD EMERGING TECHNOLOGY REVIEW

 FIGURE F.1 Percentage of AI PhDs hired by industry
70
65.7

60
57.0
51.0
50

40

30

21.0
20
1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

Source: Nur Ahmed, Muntasir Wahed, and Neil C. Thompson, “The Growing Influence of Industry in AI
Research,” Science 379, no. 6635 (March 2023): 884–86.

4. The view from Stanford is unique, important— government as well as institutional initiatives that
and needed now more than ever bring together policymakers and researchers to
tackle the world’s toughest policy problems. But in
Stanford University has a unique vantage point this moment of rapid technological change, we must
when it comes to technological innovation. It is not do more. We are delighted to launch this unprec-
an accident that Silicon Valley surrounds Stanford; edented collaboration between Stanford’s Hoover
the university lies at the heart of the innovation eco- Institution, the School of Engineering, and the
system. Stanford faculty, researchers, and former Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence
students have founded Alphabet, Cisco Systems, to bring policy analysis, social science, science, med-
Hewlett-Packard, Instagram, LinkedIn, Nvidia, Sun icine, and engineering together.
Microsystems, Yahoo!, and many other companies,
together generating more annual revenues than The Stanford Emerging Technology Review origi-
most of the world’s economies. Start-ups take flight nated from conversations we had last year with senior
in our dorm rooms, classrooms, laboratories, and US government officials who came to campus and
kitchens. Technological innovation is lived every asked, “What do we need to know about emerg-
day and up close on our campus—with all its ben- ing technologies at Stanford?” No one person had
efits and downsides. This ecosystem and its culture, a good answer, so we convened leading scholars
ideas, and perspectives often seem a world apart across fields for briefings. The impact of that day was
from the needs and norms of Washington, DC. powerful and revealing: it was a one-off event, and it
Bridging the divide between the locus of American was not enough. We also discovered that many of our
policy and the heart of American technological inno- leading faculty in different science and engineering
vation has never been more important. fields did not know one another. Together we realized
that although Stanford is one of the world’s leading
Stanford has a rich history of policy engagement, research universities, we did not know what we knew.
with individuals who serve at the highest levels of And fragmentation was hindering our policy impact.

FOREWORD 7
 So we founded the Stanford Emerging Technology semiconductors, space technologies, and sustain-
Review (SETR), an enduring initiative to harness the able energy technologies. While this is nowhere
latest insights from leading scholars in ten of the most near an exhaustive list of technology research areas
important fields today, bring these scholars together at Stanford, these ten fields are rapidly shaping
to share their research with colleagues across disci- American society today and promise to gain impor-
plines, and work collaboratively to enhance policy tance in the coming years. Our reviews of each tech-
education and impact for the nation. nology field were led by world-renowned Stanford
tenured faculty members who also delivered lectures
We selected these ten areas as a starting point, covering their fields in SETR seminars (their bios can
not an end point. We wanted to begin by leverag- be found in the Contributors section on page 151).
ing areas of deep expertise at Stanford and cover- The SETR team also included eighteen postdoctoral
ing technologies widely recognized as essential for scholars and eleven undergraduate research assis-
expanding American economic prosperity, advanc- tants who spent the last year interviewing leading
ing democratic values, and protecting the security faculty across Stanford in different subfields, con-
of the nation. But science is always moving, and we ducting research, and drafting background materi-
expect that future reports may focus on different als. Overall, they conducted seventy-five interviews
areas or divide fields in different ways. spanning faculty from thirty departments on the key
developments, barriers, bottlenecks, needs, oppor-
Today, technology policy and education efforts are tunities, and implications in their respective fields.
often led by policy experts with limited technolog-
ical expertise. The Stanford Emerging Technology Each technology chapter begins with an overview of
Review flips the script, enlisting ten of the brightest the basics—the major technical subfields, concepts,
scientific and engineering minds at the university to and terms needed to understand how a technology
share their knowledge of their respective fields by works and could affect society. Next, we outline key
working alongside social scientists to translate their developments and advances in the field. Finally,
work to nonexpert audiences. We start with science each chapter concludes by offering an “over-the-
and technology, not policy. And we go from there horizon” outlook that covers crucial considerations
to emphasize the important interaction between sci- for policymakers over the next few years. The report
ence and all aspects of policy. ends with two chapters that look across the ten tech-
nologies, offering analysis of common trends, key
differences, and implications for economic growth,
national security, environmental and energy sustain-
ability, human health, and civil society.
How to Use This Report:
One-Stop Shopping but Three points bear noting. First, we offer no spe-
cific policy recommendations. That is by design.
Not a One-Time Product Washington is littered with reports offering policy rec-
ommendations that were long forgotten, overtaken
This report is intended to be a useful “one-stop by events, or both. We want to provide a reference
shopping” primer that covers ten key emerging tech- resource that endures—a report that is updated and
nology areas: artificial intelligence, biotechnology issued annually, a guide that can inform successive
and synthetic biology, cryptography, materials sci- generations of policymakers about evolving techno-
ence, neuroscience, nuclear technologies, robotics, logical fields and their implications.

8 STANFORD EMERGING TECHNOLOGY REVIEW

Second, SETR offers a view from Stanford, not NOTES
the view from Stanford. There is no single view of
1. Council on Foreign Relations, Innovation and National Secu-
anything in a university. Individual faculty members
rity: Keeping Our Edge, Independent Task Force Report No. 77,
involved in this report may not agree with everything James Manyika and William H. McRaven, chairs, 2019, 10, https://
in it. Other members of their departments would www.cfr.org/keeping-our-edge/pdf/TFR_Innovation_Strategy.pdf.
2. Council on Foreign Relations, Innovation and National Security, 21.
probably offer a different lay of the technology
3. Nur Ahmed, Muntasir Wahed, and Neil C. Thompson, “The
landscape with varying assessments about impor­ Growing Influence of Industry in AI Research,” Science 379, no. 6635
tant developments and over-the-horizon issues. The (March 2023): 884–86, https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126
/science.ade2420.
report is intended to reflect the best collective judg-
4. Roman Jurowetzki, Daniel Hain, Juan Mateos-Garcia, and
ment about the state of these ten fields—guided by Konstantinos Stathoulopoulos, “The Privatization of AI Research(-ers):
leading experts in those fields. Causes and Potential Consequences—From University-Industry
Interaction to Public Research Brain-Drain?,” arXiv (2021), https://
arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2102/2102.01648.pdf.
Third, this report is just the beginning. In the
months ahead, SETR will be producing additional
articles and reports, holding briefings in California
and Washington, DC, and launching multimedia
educational products. Our goal is ambitious: devel-
oping a new model to help policymakers understand
tech issues in a more real-time, continuous, rigorous,
and user-friendly way.

Ensuring American leadership in science and tech-

nology requires all of us—academia, industry,
government—to keep listening, learning, and
working together. We hope the Stanford Emerging
Technology Review starts meaningful and lasting
conversations about how an innovation ecosystem
benefits us all. The promise of emerging technology
is boundless if we have the foresight to understand it
and the fortitude to embrace the challenges.

Condoleezza Rice
John B. Taylor
Jennifer Widom
Amy Zegart
Co-chairs, Stanford Emerging Technology Review

FOREWORD 9