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Joe Hall - CROCI A Real Value Investment Process - April 2015
Joe Hall - CROCI A Real Value Investment Process - April 2015
02 The CROCI valuation methodology: CROCI Economic P/E vs. accounting P/E
— There are two extreme approaches to equities: The speculator and the investor.
— Speculators focus on the return generated by changes in the price of the investment,
with little interest in why it happens.
— Investors are interested in the cash flow generated by the capital and the price
they pay.
— If you are an investor, you want to understand that in which you are investing—the full
price paid, the real profitability and the entire capital invested in the business.
“To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ,
unusual business insights, or inside information. What’s needed is a sound
intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions
from corroding that framework.”
— Warren Buffett, preface to fourth edition of The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, originally published in 1973
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Understanding CROCI valuation methodology
— In theory, P/E ratio should work as a valuation — Developed in 1996, CROCI is a systematic proprietary
methodology; in practice it doesn’t. equity valuation process that seeks to understand the
— There is great difficulty in comparing the valuation of real value of a company.
companies that are in different sectors or from — The central aim of CROCI is to ensure that the
different countries. valuations of all covered companies are
— That’s because varying accounting standards make comparable—regardless of their sector or geography.
consistent analysis and therefore valuation The team covers 800 companies with 60 professionals.
comparisons difficult.
How it works?
— CROCI converts financial-statement data into a set of economic inputs that are used to calculate a valuation metric called
Economic P/E, which is comparable across markets and sectors.
— These calculations include inflation adjustment, depreciation, the recognition of intangible assets and the inclusion of off-
balance-sheet items such as operating leases.
— Once the data has been adjusted, the real cash return that a company is generating for stockholders can be calculated and
compared to the real enterprise value and net capital invested.
— CROCI Economic P/E is used as the primary metric in building CROCI indices and investment strategies.
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CROCI history
A timeline
1990 1996 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management as of 6/30/14 unless otherwise noted. Performance is historical and does not guarantee future results. CROCI indices are
sponsored by DB AG London. Performance information for indices was not calculated by an independent calculation agent. Performance does not include any fees associated
with products on the index. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The CROCI strategy is supplied by the CROCI investment strategy and valuation group, a unit within
Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management, through a licensing agreement with the fund’s advisor. The CROCI valuation process is not managed or executed by Deutsche
Investment Management Americas, Inc (DIMA). The members of the CROCI team are not employees of DIMA nor do they provide investment advisory services on behalf
of DIMA.
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CROCI team structure
Head of CROCI
Francesco Curto (1998)
CROCI analysts
Mukarram Ali (2002) Gyanendra Jaiswal (2005) Mahesh Rathi (2005)
Subha Rathi (2009) Yogendar Khairari (2003) Bharat Shah (2002)
Venkat Bijjaram (2004) Mital Parekh (2002) Vikash Sonica (2006)
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The CROCI valuation methodology:
02 CROCI Economic P/E vs. accounting P/E
The CROCI valuation methodology
Going from accounting to economic data
Is historical-cost-accounted and ignores intangible Is adjusted for inflation, and also includes capitalized
economic assets, such as research and development and intangibles, such as research and development, and brand
brand advertising. advertising.
Only includes the value of the equity, ignoring debt and Includes financial debt and other liabilities, such as leases,
other calls on shareholders. warranties and pension underfunding.
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Converting accounting data into real economic data
Economic P/E correlations are much higher than for accounting P/E
Accounting inputs Economic inputs
P/BV EV/NCI
Accounting P/E = Economic P/E =
ROE CROCI
Accounting P/E: P/BV vs. ROE1 Economic P/E: EV/NCI vs. CROCI1
(1) P/BV vs. ROE and EV/NCI vs. CROCI is for CROCI global universe during 2012, using average share price where necessary. Companies with negative P/BVs have been
removed from both, along with three extreme outliers in the accounting chart.
Source: Deutsche Bank
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CROCI selection methodology
Overview of country, regional and global CROCI indices
CROCI Index
(equal-weighted, long-only, rebalanced monthly, no cash position)2
CROCI indices are rebalanced on a monthly basis and are equally weighted.2
— CROCI World and CROCI World ex Japan Indices are targeted to be region neutral to the MSCI World and MSCI Kokusai Indices
respectively.
— CROCI Sectors III Index selects the 10 stocks with the lowest economic P/E from each of the three global sectors with the lowest
median economic P/E.
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The CROCI valuation methodology:
What it does vs. what it doesn’t do
CROCI is based on the premise that stock performance is primarily driven by fundamentals. But this
is not always the case.
What CROCI tries to do: What CROCI doesn’t do:
Identify and provide exposure to real, inflation-adjusted value in the market Identify the best performing stocks in the market
Avoid stocks with a high probability of multiple contraction in the future Use analyst forecasts, company predictions, or any
macro outlook
Avoid stocks that hurt performance, especially when markets are falling Include financial stocks, as the amount of leverage
used by banks makes them incomparable to stocks
in other sectors
CROCI may not add as much value in bullish markets as the entire market
tends to rise (“the rising tide floats all boats”)
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CROCI vs. traditional accounting value
Using accounting vs. CROCI data to select cheap stocks results in
markedly different portfolios
The overlap between accounting P/E and Economic P/E is relatively low1
100 stocks from MSCI World Index with lowest accounting 40 stocks from S&P 500 Index with lowest accounting P/E
P/E compared to 100 stocks with lowest Economic P/E compared to 40 stocks with lowest Economic P/E
— CROCI seeks to provide exposure to real value based on economically adjusted data.
— Low-Economic-P/E portfolios are qualitatively distinct from traditional value portfolios with superior operational and financial characteristics.2
(1) A comparison of the companies that are in more than one of the 100 global and 40 U.S. stock strategy baskets using data as of 4/3/14 and 3/25/14, respectively. U.S.
baskets are comprised of the 40 cheapest stocks as measured by Economic P/E and the 40 cheapest stocks as measured by accounting P/E. Global baskets are
comprised of the 100 cheapest stocks as measured by Economic P/E and the 100 cheapest stocks as measured by accounting P/E.
(2) Refers to supplement information section for a comparison between Economic P/E and traditional accounting–based value portfolios.
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Economic P/E baskets vs. accounting P/E baskets
Global operational exposures differ greatly
The Economic P/E basket has significantly different sector exposures with a larger tilt towards
more “growth” sectors than with the accounting P/E basket
Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, 2014. The Economic P/E basket constituents are compared to a basket of 100 stocks from MSCI World top 450 excluding Financials and
covered by CROCI selected based on lowest trailing 12 month Accounting P/E and Accounting Price/Book Value. These baskets are as of March 2014 and the comparisons
between them may not be consistent over a longer period of time either historically or in the future. Dark grey highlights growth sectors which the Economic P/E basket favors,
while the lighter grey highlights those it underweights.
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Economic P/E baskets vs. accounting P/E baskets
Global operational exposures differ greatly
— The Economic P/E basket has higher profitability, higher cash returns, less capital intensity and higher free cash flow than the
accounting P/E basket
— The Economic P/E basket has much lower financial risk (leverage)
— The Economic P/E basket has lower economic valuations than the Accounting P/E basket, resulting in greater exposure to real
value than a traditional value approach
Source: Deutsche Bank, Factset, 2014. The Economic P/E basket constituents are compared to a basket of 100 stocks from MSCI World top 450 excluding Financials and
covered by CROCI selected based on lowest trailing 12 month Accounting P/E and Accounting Price/Book Value. These baskets are as of March 2014 and the comparisons
between them may not be consistent over a longer period of time either historically or in the future.
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CROCI excludes financial stocks
Why?
0
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
MSCI World MSCI World ex. Financials
Source: MSCI. The MSCI World ex Financials Index is calculated and published by MSCI. The MSCI indices are the exclusive property of MSCI Inc. (MSCI) and may not be
reproduced or extracted and used for any other purpose without MSCI’s consent. The MSCI indices are provided without any warranties of any kind.
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03 CROCI adjustments: Examples
Approximating the replacement value of assets
Market cap (in million) $399,954 Enterprise value (in millions) $341,508
Book value (in million) $174,003 Net capital invested (in millions) $299,698
Source: Deutsche Bank and company data as of 12/31/13. For illustrative purposes only.
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Accounting for hidden liabilities
Source: Deutsche Bank and company data as of 12/31/13. For illustrative purposes only.
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Depreciating similar assets in the same manner
Example: Airlines
— For instance, Deutsche Lufthansa takes advantage of German tax benefits from accelerated depreciation which causes its book
value to appear unrealistically low. On the other hand, British Airways does not benefit from the same tax treatment and
therefore depreciates its fleet over a longer time period, which causes book value to be incomparable to Lufthansa’s.
— Given below are the estimated life based on company accounts and the residual value for different airline companies:
Source: Deutsche Bank and company data as of 12/31/13. For illustrative purposes only.
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Estimating the value of unreported assets
Example: Pfizer
— Pharmaceutical companies, such as Pfizer, make large investments into their pipelines which are not represented in their
assets, but reflected within their CROCI-adjusted assets.
CROCI metrics
Accounting PE 14.4x Economic PE 14.3x
Return on equity 17.4% CROCI 19.5%
Gross assets components (USD millions) Accounting book value Adjustment (as %) Real capital
Gross tangible fixed assets $28,875 12% $32,219
Capitalized intangibles $0 100% $65,122
Others –$17,212 $11,835
Gross assets $11,663 836% $109,176
Source: Deutsche Bank and company data as of 12/31/13. For illustrative purposes only.
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Definitions of key terms and
04 team biographies
Definitions
CROCI Used as the economic version of an asset multiple, e.g. Price-to-Book Value. Over
EV/ NCI time, this ratio should converge to 1x, according to economic theory (Tobin)
CROCI Cash Return On Capital Invested, the economic version of Return on Equity.
A measure of cash earnings yield, standardised for all companies, regardless of
their business or location.
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Portfolio management
Di Kumble, CFA
Senior Portfolio Manager, DWS International Fund, and Head of Tax-
managed Equities
― Kumble joined the company in 2003 with seven years of industry experience.
― Prior to joining, she served as a portfolio manager at Graham Capital Management. Previously, she
worked as a quantitative strategist at ITG Inc and Morgan Stanley.
― Kumble received a PhD in chemistry from Princeton University.
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Research
― Curto joined Deutsche Bank in September 1998. In his time at Deutsche Bank, he has been a senior
European strategist and senior global strategist, and has been involved in all the major developments of
CROCI.
― He joined from Warwick Business School, where he was a research fellow.
― He holds a degree in business economics (economia aziendale) from "Universita' di Venezia" and a PhD
in strategic management from Warwick University.
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CROCI team biographies
Joe Hall
Head of CROCI Americas
― Before joining Deutsche Bank in October 2013 to develop and manage CROCI in the Americas, Hall worked at Deutsche Bank between 1995 and 2005, having been
initially recruited as part of the team which created the Deutsche Bank European equity platform from scratch. He was also head of European equity sales, based in
London and running a team of 180 salespeople globally. He was also responsible for global institutional client relationships.
― Hall moved to the United States in 2001 to oversee integration of DB Alex Brown within the global network.
― He holds bachelor's and master’s degrees in modern languages from Oxford University.
― Barth is responsible for the design, development, implementation and maintenance of all CROCI investment strategies and products.
― He joined Deutsche Bank in 2002 as an equity investment strategist for structured products, which led to development of CROCI in 2004.
― Prior to joining Deutsche Bank, Barth was head of international quantitative equity strategy at Merrill Lynch for nine years, before which he worked at JP Morgan
Investment Management for 10 years in fundamental and quantitative analysis and portfolio management.
― He received a Bachelor’s degree in business and economics from Lehigh University and a Master’s in Business Administration from LaSalle University.
Virginie Galas
Head of the CROCI database and team
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CROCI team biographies
Christopher Wane
Head of CROCI, Europe
― Wane joined Deutsche Bank in May 2000. After working with the CROCI® global and pan-European strategy team for a year, he changed focus to concentrate on
pan-European small- and mid-cap strategy, ultimately heading the team. He returned to global coverage in 2005, focusing initially on capital structure and from 2008
onward, additionally on CROCI.
― Prior to Deutsche Bank, Chris worked for Deloitte & Touche, qualifying as a chartered accountant.
― He holds an accountancy studies degree (first class) from the University of Exeter.
Colin McKenzie,
Director
― McKenzie helped to develop the CROCI investment strategy and valuation group, where he specializes in company and sector valuation.
― He joined the group in 2000, before which he worked in equity sales.
― McKenzie holds a degree in mathematics and philosophy from Oxford University.
― He also publishes regular reports on market and sector trends.
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Important risk information
The fund will be managed on the premise that stocks with lower CROCI® Economic P/E ratios may outperform stocks with higher
CROCI® Economic P/E ratios over time. This premise may not always be correct and prospective investors should evaluate this
assumption prior to investing in the fund. Investing in foreign securities presents certain risks, such as currency fluctuations, political
and economic changes and market risks. The fund may lend securities to approved institutions. Stocks may decline in value.
See the prospectus for details.
OBTAIN A PROSEPCTUS
To obtain a summary prospectus, if available, or prospectus, download one from www.dws-investments.com for more
information regarding the fund’s objectives, risks, charges and expenses.
Investment products offered through DWS Investments Distributors, Inc. Advisory services offered through Deutsche Investment
Management Americas, Inc.
Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management represents the asset management and wealth management activities conducted by
Deutsche Bank AG or any of its subsidiaries. Clients will be provided Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management products or services
by one or more legal entities that will be identified to clients pursuant to the contracts, agreements, offering materials or other
documentation relevant to such products or services.
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