2 PR Sept. 13 2023
2 PR Sept. 13 2023
His lies will otherwise remain an effective political and legal tool
image: kal
The Economist Aug 2nd 2023
On reading the latest criminal indictment of Donald Trump, this one for trying to overthrow a duly elected
president, certain feelings return with renewed power, including that stomach-churning mix of wonder,
dismay and exhaustion at the volume and absurdity of his lies about the 2020 election. But a surprising new
sentiment stirs as well: nostalgia. American politics seemed so much healthier back then.
After all, in a political test without precedent since the civil war, the centre held. In fact, the right held. Mr
Trump’s vice-president, Mike Pence, stood up to him, as did others within the White House. Kevin McCarthy,
the Republican leader in the House, said Mr Trump “bears responsibility” for the attack on the Capitol by “mob
rioters”. That was a nice moment, in retrospect.
Even more inspiring, in states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania, unfamous Republican
officials honoured their own integrity, without recourse to any other authority, and rebuffed the pleas and
threats of a president they believed in. “Nobody wanted him to win more than me,” said Lee Chatfield, the
speaker of the House in Michigan, in a statement quoted in the indictment, handed down on August 1st. “But
I love our republic, too. I can’t fathom risking our norms, our traditions and institutions.” He added, “I fear we’d
lose our country forever.”
Three years on, Mr Trump is in a stronger position, with a plausible path back to the White House—not despite
his efforts to overturn the last election but because of them. He stuck to his lies, betting on his great gift for
preying on others’ baser qualities. Even before Jack Smith, the special counsel investigating Mr Trump, brought
the new charges, Mr McCarthy was trying to discredit them as an effort by Joe Biden to “weaponise
government”.
On news of the indictment, Tucker Carlson’s replacement at Fox News, Jesse Watters, tweeted, “This is all
politics and very well co-ordinated.” He was alleging a plot by Mr Biden to distract people from investigations
into his son Hunter, but he was more aptly describing a plot by Mr Trump, who made his talking-points clear:
that this prosecution is politically corrupt; that his claims were free speech protected by the Bill of Rights; and
that, in any event, he was not lying, because he believed the election was stolen—because, of course, as he
still insists, it was. He may need only to persuade one juror that he believes that, and he has sold plenty of
shoddy products before. He is already at work degrading faith in the law as he previously degraded faith in
the electoral system.
Mr Trump’s political strategy is his legal strategy, and vice versa. They reinforce each other by reinforcing
delusions about Mr Trump that most Republicans believe, according to polls, including that he is the victim of
conspirators out to protect their privileges from his insurgent politics. Mr Trump’s climb into his dominant
position in the Republican field began in late March after his first indictment, on business-fraud charges in
Manhattan.
The multiplying felony counts against him—78 so far, with more probably coming—are consuming his
campaign funds, and Democrats hope they will distract him from the campaign trail. This is wishful thinking. In
2024 the Trump trials will be the trail. They will focus attention on him and his message of fearless challenge in
the face of persecution.
What might break the spell? A conviction could shake even some Republican confidence that Mr Trump
deserves to hold office again. But, as has been the case since Mr Trump’s political rise began, the surest
protection against his return to the White House would be for other Republican leaders to tell the truth, as
those state officials did after the 2020 election.
Some of Mr Trump’s long-shot rivals for the Republican nomination said the indictment showed Mr Trump was
unfit for office. “Anyone who puts himself over the constitution should never be president of the United States,”
Mr Pence said. But others fell in line or tried to sidestep the substance of the charges. Ron DeSantis, the
governor of Florida, did the critical-race theorists proud by attacking the interlocking power structures
oppressing Mr Trump. “Washington DC is a ‘swamp’ and it is unfair to have to stand trial before a jury that is
reflective of the swamp mentality,” he wrote on Twitter. He called for systemic reform so Americans could
move cases from Washington to their “home districts”.
These Republicans are making the same mistake as many Democrats in hoping that the legal system will, in
the end, stop Mr Trump. After the attack on the Capitol, Mitch McConnell, then as now the Senate Republican
leader, held Mr Trump “practically and morally responsible”. But he voted to acquit Mr Trump on the
impeachment charge of inciting an insurrection, saying the matter was better left to the justice system. That
was a fateful choice. Outsourcing the problem of Donald Trump has simply exposed more American
institutions to his corrosive power.
Democrats have a tough duty to discharge, as well. They should be as zealous as Republicans in demanding
rigorous investigation of Hunter Biden’s business dealings. No evidence has surfaced suggesting President
Biden profited from his son’s trading on the family name, and there is no moral equivalence between the
younger Biden’s influence peddling, or illusion-of-influence peddling, and Mr Trump’s attempts to subvert
democracy. But excusing Hunter Biden’s ugly practices and minimising his lawbreaking serve Mr Trump’s
agenda by eroding faith in the impartial application of justice.
Mr Smith’s spare statement to the public on August 1st was a bracing reminder of all that was vulnerable on
January 6th, and of the bravery of the law-enforcement officials who protected it. “They defended the very
institutions and principles that define the United States,” he said. Now the rule of law is at stake, too, and it is
up to politics to come to the rescue. ■
Running for the American presidency is a full-time job. “There was essentially no day or night” from the first
presidential debate in September 1976 to election day, griped James Fallows, now a journalist, who worked
on Jimmy Carter’s campaign. Donald Trump, if he wins the Republican Party’s nomination, as seems likely, will
have to combine that gruelling endeavour with his role as a defendant in four criminal trials. In all he faces 91
felony charges, from falsifying business records to conspiring to defraud the country. His trials will all probably
be scheduled well before election day. So far, Mr Trump, who denies all the charges, has reconciled the roles
of defendant and candidate by making his campaign largely about the cases against him. He rallies
Republican support with his claims that he is the victim of a political witch-hunt. Whether most American voters
will agree should Mr Trump face off against President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is
uncertain. The revelations that emerge in court may well shape the race. These are the prosecutions that
await the former president.
In the telling of Fani Willis, the prosecutor, Mr Trump was the boss of a criminal “enterprise” with one job: to
change the result of the 2020 presidential election in Georgia, a state he lost. On August 14th this year Ms
Willis indicted Mr Trump on charges including racketeering. She used a statute designed to target the mafia to
tie the 19 co-defendants together.
Their alleged offences vary: some defendants, known as the “fake electors”, are said to have submitted false
paperwork to Congress claiming that Mr Trump had won Georgia. Others allegedly appealed to the state’s
officials, urging them to overturn Mr Biden’s victory. Yet others reputedly harassed election workers and stole
voting data. Ms Willis claims that Mr Trump unified and motivated their illegal acts. Central to the case will be
a phone call from January 2021: in it, the then-president urged Georgia’s secretary of state, Brad
Raffensperger, to “find 11,780 votes”—the exact number that he needed to win the state.
Election interference
Jack Smith’s indictment, alleging that Mr Trump tried to steal the 2020 presidential election, is the gravest
caseagainst the former president. Mr Smith, though appointed by Merrick Garland, America’s attorney-
general, is an independent special prosecutor. That status is supposed to ensure that he has no political
agenda, though of course Mr Trump’s supporters don’t accept that. On August 1st this year Mr Smith charged
Mr Trump with conspiring to defraud the United States, obstructing an official proceeding (Congress’s
certification of the electoral-college vote in favour of Mr Biden) and conspiring to deprive Americans of their
right to have their votes counted. The indictment accuses Mr Trump of pulling the strings of fake electors in
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; leaning on the Department
of Justice and the vice-president, Mike Pence, to carry out his “criminal scheme”; and exploiting the violence
at the Capitol on January 6th 2021 to encourage lawmakers to delay certifying the vote.
In challenging the allegations, Mr Trump’s lawyers will probably cite his First Amendment right to free speech.
The indictment opens by acknowledging that right, and Mr Trump’s right to formally contest the results of an
election. But his lies, it goes on to allege, created a foundation of mistrust upon which his criminal conspiracies
were built.
image: the economist
In March 2023 Alvin Bragg, Manhattan’s top prosecutor, brought the first-ever criminal indictment against a
former president. He charged Mr Trump with 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to cover up a
$130,000 payment to a porn star, Stormy Daniels. On the eve of the presidential election in 2016 she
threatened to go public about sleeping with Mr Trump. His lawyer, Michael Cohen, paid her off—and later
pleaded guilty to campaign-finance violations in connection with the payment. Mr Trump is accused of
covering up his reimbursements to Mr Cohen by describing them as payments for legal services.
Falsifying business records is not a felony unless it furthers another crime. Mr Bragg did not specify the
additional crime in his indictment, perhaps because the clearest contender—a federal election-law
violation—is not obviously within his power as a local district attorney to prosecute. So far Mr Trump’s lawyers
have failed in their efforts to move the case to a federal court.
They allege that the former president was aware that retaining and leaking secret papers was a serious crime;
that he stashed them in insecure places and refused an order to hand them over; and that he bragged about
their contents. The indictment claims that the documents were boxed up in various locations at Mar-a-Lago,
the private club in Florida where Mr Trump lives. These include a ballroom, a shower and a storage room that
the public could get to from the club’s pool patio.
There are civil trials, too. New York state is suing the Trump Organisation for fraud: Mr Trump and his two adult
sons are accused of inflating their net worth in statements to lenders and insurance companies. That trial is
due to start on October 2nd this year. In May a jury in Manhattan found Mr Trump liable for sexually abusing E.
Jean Carroll, an author, in the 1990s, and of later defaming her. On September 6th a judge ruled that Mr
Trump was liable in a second defamation trial, based in part on odious comments he made about Ms Carroll
in a town hall on cnn in May. A jury is set to decide damages on January 15th 2024. The first civil trial did little
to sway voters who favour Mr Trump. The full effects of the criminal ones remain to be seen. Thus far they have
bolstered his popularity among Republicans. ■
Cinq jours, deux pays et de la frustration. A son retour, mardi 12 septembre, d'un long périple en Inde et au
Vietnam, riche en annonces et en rencontres officielles censées illustrer sa vigueur au travail, Joe Biden a
retrouvé les tracas de Washington. Ses médias polarisés, peu intéressés par le sommet du
G20 ou le partenariat stratégique noué avec Hanoï. Sa Chambre des représentants, où une opposition
républicaine féroce est décidée à se venger des inculpations judiciaires qui ont frappé Donald Trump.
« Vous avez à peine vieilli d'un jour et je dirais même que vous avez encore meilleure mine qu'avant », avait
osé Nguyen Phu Trong, le secrétaire général du Parti communiste vietnamien, âgé lui-
même de 79 ans. Une politesse zélée en contraste avec l'impression laissée sur place
par Joe Biden lors d'une conférence de presse le 10 septembre. Après plusieurs échanges, le président
américain a été interrogé sur l'absence de consensus sur la crise climatique. Il a répondu par un long propos
décousu, peu cohérent sur la fin, évoquant un film de John Wayne et une histoire d'Indiens.
Avant de conclure, plus tard : « Je ne sais pas vous, mais moi, je vais aller me coucher. »
La question de l'état physique et mental de Joe Biden s'installe au cœur des préoccupations
démocrates. « Vous vivrez jusqu'à 90 ans ! », a lancé l'un des ouvriers de Philadelphie venus
l'écouter le 4 septembre. Le président a fait le signe de croix, avant de rétorquer : « Je fais ça depuis plus
longtemps que n'importe qui. Et vous savez quoi ? Je vais continuer à le faire avec votre aide. » A
80 ans, Joe Biden peine pourtant à convaincre en se réfugiant derrière son expérience. Il sait que chaque
pas mal assuré et chaque bafouillement sont étudiés comme un signe d'affaiblissement potentiel. Dans un
article fracassant mercredi dans le Washington Post, l'éditorialiste David Ignatius l'appelle à renoncer
à une candidature, tout en lui vouant de « l'admiration »pour son bilan. Selon deux sondages récents,
près de trois quarts des Américains jugent Joe Biden trop âgé pour exercer à nouveau la plus haute fonction.
Son entourage veille, essaie de le préserver au maximum, rappelle que Donald Trump a tout demême 77 ans.
Mais ce dernier ne projette pas une telle fragilité.
Et puis, il y a le Congrès, dont Joe Biden connaît chaque ressort. A quatorze mois de l'élection présidentielle,
Kevin McCarthy a succombé à la pression des élus trumpistes. Mardi, le président de la Chambre des
représentants a annoncé qu'il donnait le feu vert à une procédure d'impeachment (destitution) contre Joe
Biden. Il a chargé trois commissions différentes d'enquêter sur des « allégations d'abus de pouvoir,
d'obstruction et de corruption ». La procédure n'a aucune chance de parvenir à son terme – Donald Trump
y a réchappé à deux reprises – mais elle offre des moyens inédits d'investigation aux républicains. Elle
surinfecte un contexte politique toxique, mais elle promet aussi des déchirements internes parmi eux.
De longue date, ces élus républicains accusent le président démocrate d'avoir facilité les affaires à
l'étranger de son fils Hunter Biden. Les faits remonteraient à l'époque où Joe Biden était le vice-
président de Barack Obama. Mais ces élus, malgré leur emphase, ont été incapables d'apporter les
preuves d'une implication pénalement répréhensible. Leur témoin clé, Gary Shapley, ancien agent des
services fiscaux (IRS), a affirmé que le ministère de la justice avait volontairement ralenti les
investigations sur Hunter Biden.
Malgré ce contexte pénible, les démocrates misent toujours sur leur talisman secret : Donald Trump, et le rejet
qu'il suscite dans une majorité de l'opinion. Les sondages très serrés entre Joe Biden et son prédécesseur n'ont
aucune valeur à ce stade, si ce n'est qu'ils dessinent pour chacun une course à handicaps
multiples. La Maison Blanche s'est préparée à l'offensive républicaine, renforçant son équipe juridique pour
faire face à l'« impeachment ». Le calcul del'entourage du président paraît simple : la vendetta du Grand
Old Party se transformera en automutilation politique. Ces dernières semaines, beaucoup d'élus du GOP ne
cachaient pas leur opposition à ce projet. C'est surtout vrai au Sénat, où Mitch McConnell (Kentucky) a
exprimé son scepticisme, au nom du groupe.
Le fait que Kevin McCarthy prenne une telle initiative sans vote préalable à la Chambre, contrairement à son
propre engagement récent, trahit sa propre vulnérabilité. Le speaker doit gérer une majorité étroite et des
rebelles décidés à lui faire subir un harcèlement, voire à le faire tomber du perchoir, s'il ne valide pas leurs
instincts vengeurs. « JoeBiden mérite l'impeachment pour avoir transformé la vice-présidence en
distributeur d'argent pour virtuellement sa famille entière. Nous le voyons tous, nous le savons tous », a
prétendu Matt Gaetz, élu de Floride. Sans preuves.
Matt Gaetz avait été un des opposants résolus à l'élection de Kevin McCarthy, en janvier. Mardi, il a dressé
un acte d'accusation contre le speaker, estimant qu'il n'avait pas respecté les termes de l'accord conclu à
l'époque avec les élus de son parti. Il lui a promis un vote quotidien de non-confiance s'il n'adoptait
pas une ligne intransigeante en matière budgétaire. Washington se prépare à un nouveau
psychodrame sur ce point. Les négociations se poursuivent pour éviter un shutdown le 30 septembre,
soit une interruption des activités fédérales non vitales, faute de financement. Matt Gaetz et la plupart des
membres du Freedom Caucus, la faction radicale républicaine, réclament des coupes drastiques dans tous
les programmes gouvernementaux. Leur extrémisme les transforme en alliés involontaires de Joe Biden.
“Bidenomics”, un nouveau deal payant pour Joe Biden? France Culture, août
2023
etats-unis-bidenomics-un-nouveau-deal-payant-pour-joe-biden-6059304
Joe Biden multiplie les discours et les déplacements pour promouvoir sa politique économique, comme ici à
Milwaukee (Wisconsin) en août. (Alex Wroblewski/Upi// SIPA)
Par Véronique Le Billon
LES ECHOS Publié le 11 sept. 2023
Nul n'est prophète en son pays : les réformes économiques poussées par Joe Biden depuis deux ans captivent
à l'étranger, mais elles laissent de marbre les Américains. Candidat à sa réélection en novembre 2024, le
président multiplie les discours et les déplacements pour vendre ses « Bidenomics » dans le pays, mais seuls 4
Américains sur dix (42 %) approuvent son bilan. Pire, l'écart entre les satisfaits et les mécontents est encore
plus important sur son action économique, selon l'agrégateur de sondages Real Clear Politics.
Les Américains ont les yeux rivés sur d'autres dossiers que la remise à niveau des infrastructures, la transition
énergétique ou la reconquête de souveraineté sur quelques secteurs stratégiques : l'inflation et l'immigration
sont les deux dossiers de la présidence Biden les plus durement notés par les électeurs.
S'ils reconnaissent à Joe Biden d'avoir su gérer la sortie de pandémie, ils voient surtout, à travers les plans de
soutien à la demande du début de sa présidence, l'origine et le carburant d'une inflation qui reste présente
dans leur quotidien. Et si le taux de chômage est rapidement revenu au plus bas, il était déjà au plancher
début 2019.
La crise persistante des opioïdes, les vagues de réfugiés qui arrivent désormais dans les grandes villes
démocrates ou la qualité de l'enseignement dans les écoles sont aussi devenus des sujets de préoccupation
pour les modérés, cet électorat qui sera clé à l'heure de l'élection.
Dans ces premiers mois de campagne, Joe Biden est ainsi plus fréquemment jugé honnête et aimable que
son prédécesseur, mais Donald Trump renvoie une image plus forte que son successeur pour défendre un
bilan ou offrir une vision de l'avenir, selon un récent sondage du « Wall Street Journal ».
Joe Biden fait le pari que l'investissement des entreprises dans les énergies vertes ou la réfection des routes
créera au fil des mois un cercle vertueux dans l'opinion. Mais la séquence économique pourrait aussi se
dégrader : la remontée des cours du pétrole pourrait peser sur l'inflation, et les économistes sont encore
nombreux à anticiper une possible récession (de modeste amplitude) à partir de la fin de l'année. La Réserve
fédérale est d'ailleurs en quête d'une croissance inférieure à son potentiel, pour s'assurer de la solidité de son
resserrement monétaire.
Les réformes économiques menées par Joe Biden supposent en outre des transitions sociales difficiles,
notamment dans l'industrie automobile qui doit basculer vers l'électrique. De quoi crisper les syndicats,
jusqu'ici acquis à Joe Biden mais qui pourraient devenir plus défiants dans un contexte de campagne
électorale.
Le poids de l'âge
Surtout, quand Joe Biden parle de l'avenir, les électeurs voient son âge (81 ans dans deux mois), qui pèse
lourdement sur sa capacité à mobiliser les électeurs. Près de trois Américains sur quatre (73 %) le jugent trop
âgé pour briguer un nouveau mandat, selon le sondage du « Wall Street Journal ». Un jugement moins sévère
pour Donald Trump (47 %), même s'il n'a que trois ans de moins. Et Kamala Harris, qui prendrait les rênes en
cas de défaillance de Joe Biden, n'a jusqu'ici guère imprimé dans l'opinion publique.
Donald Trump est le meilleur ennemi de Joe Biden, qui pense avoir plus de chances de l'emporter dans un
duel face à l'ancien président. Si ce dernier sort vainqueur de la primaire à droite, comme les sondages le
pronostiquent aujourd'hui, Joe Biden devrait donc axer à nouveau sa campagne sur le choix de société qui
s'offrira aux Américains en novembre 2024.
Selon les statistiques officielles publiées mardi, malgré les bons chiffres de l’emploi, les Américains ont vu leurs
revenus après impôts reculer en moyenne de 8,8 % en 2022. Et le taux de pauvreté a bondi.
A un an de l’élection présidentielle, les statistiques économiques publiées mardi 12 septembre par le bureau
du recensement américain sont très mauvaises pour le président démocrate, Joe Biden : le salaire médian
avant impôts des Américains a reculé de 2,3 % en 2022 pour retomber à 74 580 dollars (69 301 euros). Par
rapport à 2019, dernière année « normale » du mandat de Donald Trump avant la crise liée au Covid-19 et
record historique, le recul atteint 4,7 %. Explication : en dépit d’une hausse de leurs salaires nominaux, les
Américains sont frappés par l’inflation, déclenchée par la pandémie et les plans de soutiens budgétaires et
monétaires. Depuis l’entrée en fonction de Joe Biden en janvier 2021, les prix ont
augmenté de 17 % aux Etats-Unis. « Le revenu des Américains baisse pour latroisième année de suite »,
titre le Wall Street Journal.
Le chiffre est encore plus catastrophique si l’on prend le revenu après impôts et crédits d’impôts, les aides
fiscales liées au Covid-19 ayant disparu : là, la chute de revenu a atteint, en moyenne, 8,8 % en 2022, pour
tomber à 64 240 dollars. Les subventions Covid, décidées à la fois sous Donald Trump et Joe Biden, avaient
créé un effet d’aubaine et conduit à une explosion provisoire du taux d’épargne des Américains.
Deuxième bombe, le taux de pauvreté après transferts et ajusté selon le coût de la vie dans les différentes
régions des Etats-Unis a explosé, passant de 7,8 % en 2021 à 12,4 % en 2022. Cette pauvreté, qui ne frappait
plus que 25,6 millions d’Américains, concerne désormais 40,9 millions de personnes et touche fortement les
enfants, avec un taux passé de 5,2 % à 12,4 %. De nouveau, la comparaison avec l’ère Trump est
douloureuse, puisque ce chiffre est supérieur aux 38,3 millions de pauvres estimés
en 2019. Le taux de pauvreté rebondit en raison de la fin desprogrammes d’aide exceptionnels mis en place
pendant la pandémie, mais aussi parce que le coût de la vie a fortement progressé.
Résultat, le seuil de la pauvreté a été revu à la hausse d’environ 10 % : une famille de quatre personnes
locataire deson logement était considérée comme pauvre si le revenu familial était inférieur à 34 518 dollars
en 2022, contre 31 453 en 2021. Le taux de pauvreté absolu et avant transferts d’impôts est stable à 11,5 %,
mais cette mesure ancienne est peu commentée, car, comme l’écrit le New York Times, elle est « largement
considérée comme obsolète car elle exclut bon nombre des programmes gouvernementaux de lutte
contre la pauvreté les plus importants ».
« Les nouveaux chiffres reflètent le rythme inégal avec lequel le gouvernement a mis fin à certaines formes
d’aides nées pendant la pandémie ainsi que les effets désastreux d’une inflation record sur les
finances des ménages », commente le Washington Post, qui estime que ces chiffres du bureau du
recensement « offrent le premier aperçu statistique de la façon dont la suppression de ces programmes a
commencé à remodeler le pays ».
Joe Biden, sans surprise, accuse les républicains d’avoir coupé dans ses programmes budgétaires.
« L’augmentation de la pauvreté infantile n’est pas un hasard : elle est le résultat d’un choix politique
délibéré que les républicains du Congrès ont fait pour bloquer l’aide aux familles avec enfants tout en
proposant des réductions d’impôts massives pour les entreprises les plus riches et les plus grandes. Aucun
enfant ne devrait grandir dans la pauvreté », accuse M. Biden, qui ne dit pas un mot du recul du pouvoir
d’achat.
« Bidenomics »
Toutefois, à répéter qu’il est à l’origine de l’envolée de l’emploi – laquelle est due essentiellement au rebond
post-Covid –, M. Biden prend le risque d’être rendu responsable des autres maux de l’économie, à
commencer par l’inflation. Dans le détail, le prix de l’essence, qui était de 2,41 dollars le gallon (3,7 litres) en
janvier 2021, est aujourd’hui de 3,81 dollars et progresse avec la réduction de la production de brut
saoudien. Le prix médian d’une maison individuelle est passé sur la même période de 304 000 à
412 000 dollars, tandis que les taux hypothécaires ont doublé pour dépasser 7 %.
Bref, l’Amérique a du travail, mais elle se serre la ceinture. Le pire est sans doute passé du côté de l’inflation,
retombée de 9,1 % en juin 2022 à 3,2 % en juillet de cette année. Mais, à l’avenir, l’emploi devrait se
dégrader, pour frapper 4,5 % de la population en 2024, selon la réserve fédérale. D’après un sondage
du Wall Street Journal réalisé en août, 58 % des Américains estiment que la situation économique est pire
qu’il y a deux ans, tandis que seuls 28 % pensent qu’elle s’est améliorée.
Il existe cependant des nouvelles plutôt positives pour M. Biden. Si les chiffres de 2022 confirment les écarts
énormes de revenus avant impôts par origine ethnique (52 860 dollars pour les Noirs, 62 800 pour les
Hispaniques, 81 060 pour les Blancs et 108 700 pour les Asiatiques), les Noirs, grâce à une forte
reprise de l’emploi, voient leur revenu grimper de 1,5 %, pour atteindre un record absolu, tandis
que le revenu des Hispaniques connaît une progression de 0,5 %.
Autre donnée positive pour le président américain, les inégalités de revenus avant impôts ont
reculé, l’indice de Gini régressant de 1,2 centième à 0,488. Plus cet indice, qui
mesure la distribution des revenus, tend vers 1, plus les inégalités sont fortes. Cette tendance, la première
significative depuis 2007, est due à la hausse des bas salaires, en particulier des personnes qui ont
quitté le système scolaire avant la fin du lycée.
En période de pénurie de main-d’œuvre, notamment dans les services à la personne, les 10 % des salariés les
moins riches ont vu leur salaire progresser de 1,2 %, tandis que celui des autres catégories reculait (− 5,5 %
pour les 10 % dessalariés les plus riches, en période de chute de Wall Street). Un phénomène sans doute
durable, car on ne voit pas les très bas salaires repartir à la baisse. Reste que cette réduction des inégalités
est effacée par la perte des mesuresliées au Covid-19, qui font bondir de 0,430 à 0,444 le taux de Gini après
impôts et crédits d’impôts. A titre decomparaison, ce taux est de 0,30 % en Europe.
Dernière bonne nouvelle pour Biden, le nombre d’Américains sans couverture santé est tombé à un plus bas
historique de 7,9 % (contre 13,3 % avant la réforme Obama en 2013). Ce taux est de 1,1 % au-
delà de 65 ans, la prise en charge basculant alors dans le giron public par le biais du système Medicare. « Les
dernières années ont illustré d’une manière incroyable le pouvoir d’une intervention gouvernementale
efficace et (…) ont montré que la pauvreté est en grande partie un choix politique », a déclaré au New York
Times Arloc Sherman, vice-président du Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, un organisme de recherche
progressiste.
Certes, mais ce choix s’est fait au prix de l’inflation et de déficits publics. M. Biden a longtemps dit qu’il avait
été leprésident ayant le plus réduit le déficit budgétaire, mais toutes ses mesures ne font que l’augmenter.
Alors que l’économie connaît le plein-emploi, le déficit devrait passer de 5,5 % à 6,5 % du produit intérieur
brut (PIB), soit 1 700 milliards de dollars, pour l’exercice qui se terminera le 30 septembre, selon l’évaluation
indépendante du Congrès publiée début août. Cette tendance est jugée unanimement intenable, à terme.
S’ils veulent confirmer larelative « social-démocratisation » des années Covid et Biden, les Etats-Unis devront
augmenter fortement les impôts.
Is US democracy on trial? Five ‘stress tests’ to watch as Trump battles Biden and
the justice system
THE CONVERSATION, Sept. 11, 2023
Are former US president Donald Trump’s indictments putting American democracy on trial? Many certainly
seem to think so.
Depending on who you ask, it doesn’t much matter what the verdict will be. Trump ending up behind bars,
in the White House, or anywhere in between points to the same end game: America’s government in cinders.
As exemplified by the resilience of democratic institutions in the wake of the January 6 attack on the Capitol,
there’s reason to think such predictions are too dire.
Still, the fact that some critics are clamouring for Trump to be barred from running for president altogether —
as a result of section three of the 14th Amendment, which disqualifies candidates from holding public office
who “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” against the US — only adds to the high-stakes political drama.
Here are five “stress tests” to look out for over the coming months to see how the US democratic system is
coping.
To date, the public’s response has diverged along partisan lines. Approximately 80% of Republicans believe
the Georgia indictment over election-rigging is politically motivated, compared to about 20% of Democrats.
Numbers look similar for the two justice department cases, over the January 6 riot and the retention of
classified documents, as well as the New York City case in which Trump is charged with making illicit “hush
money” payments. Trump has denied all charges.
Americans currently assess the cases largely through the blinders of partisan media. Yet a sign of a healthy
democracy is that, as the hearings progress and the two sides advance their arguments, views should shift —
for or against Trump.
If nothing budges public opinion, it signals that Americans either aren’t paying attention, or they’re so
ensconced in partisan echo chambers that they’re inured to the facts. Either scenario — disengagement or
blind partisanship — doesn’t bode well for voters placing justice above politics.
So far, Biden has refused to weigh in on Trump’s indictments. Substantively, this is the right thing to do. It’s also
smart politics. Trump’s leverage relies on complaining that he’s the victim of a partisan vendetta by the “Biden
justice department”.
Even a hint of Biden leaning on US attorney general Merrick Garland — and, by extension, special counsel
Jack Smith — would give critics more fodder to say he’s trying to knock out his most likely opponent in 2024.
However, as Biden kicks off his campaign Trump’s malfeasance will be a core part of his pitch to voters. Biden
has telegraphed that his 2024 message will be that democracy itself is “at stake”.
The question is how Biden will criticise Trump for taking an axe to democratic norms without seeming like he’s
speaking in coded language to prosecutors.
Increasingly, Trump’s legal and campaign strategies are morphing into one. Because he’s trying his cases in
the court of public opinion, Trump has, despite warnings, taken to social media to rail against what he claims
is a justice system that’s out to get him.
In August, for example, Trump unleashed on his platform, Truth Social: “IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING
AFTER YOU!”
Trump threatened Georgia lieutenant governor Geoff Duncan that he “shouldn’t” testify in his Georgia case.
Trump doesn’t lose his first amendment, constitutionally protected right to free speech just because he’s on
trial. But neither can he use his megaphone to taint potential jurists and to intimidate witnesses and judges.
The big question is not only how long a leash Trump will formally have to vent his views, but whether penalties
will actually be enforced if, and — more likely — when he continues to transgress the rules.
Trump’s detractors, including within the Republican party, say that US democracy can’t thrive when roughly
half its politicians deny overt wrongdoing.
At the first Republican presidential debate, for example, ex-New Jersey governor Chris Christie offered
this plea to his party: “Whether or not you believe that the criminal charges are right or wrong, [Trump’s]
conduct is beneath the office of President of the United States.”
A telling sign will be whether other Republican figures are willing to denounce Trump’s behaviour.
In Congress, for example, Rep. Don Bacon said, “We can’t just deny what President Trump did was wrong. It’s
clear as day wrong.” Sen. Lisa Murkowski labeled the indictment a “pretty comprehensive condemnation of
the president’s actions”.
Since then, criticism has mostly petered out, and even Trump’s presidential rivals have lined up to defend him.
Whether that pendulum swings back could determine if many right-leaning voters continue to view the Trump
indictments solely through a partisan lens.
Following the Capitol insurrection, polls showed worryingly high levels of support for political violence, with as
many as 30% of Republicans believing that taking up arms for a political cause could be justified.
Trump’s rhetoric has done nothing to tamp down these impulses. Even before his first indictment, for example,
Trump cautioned that a prosecution against him would usher in “potential death and destruction”.
Trump’s followers have also dialled up the menacing language.
Former Arizona governor candidate Kari Lake, for instance, declared: “If you want to get to President Trump,
you’re going to have to go through me and you’re going to have to go through 75 million Americans just like
me, and I’m going to tell you … most of us are card-carrying members of the NRA [National Rifle Association].”
One potentially reassuring sign is that, despite the extreme reaction that Trump supporters displayed to his first
indictment, protests have gone on with a whimper, not a bang. The question is whether their response will kick
into overdrive once more court dates are set.
Even if not on the scale of January 6, escalations in advocacy of political violence would prove the ultimate
stressor to US democracy.
McCarthy Is Under the Gun as the House Returns for a Spending Fight
Speaker Kevin McCarthy faces his biggest test since the debt ceiling showdown as right-wing Republicans
demand deep spending cuts and tougher border policies opposed by the White House and Senate.
Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s job is on the line as the House returns on Tuesday to confront a funding impasse
that could lead to a government shutdown or a challenge to the California Republican’s hold on the top
post in the House.
Far-right Republicans are refusing to back a measure to keep the federal government funded past Sept. 30
without substantial spending cuts and stringent new border policies that stand little chance of becoming law.
They are also threatening to depose Mr. McCarthy should he turn to Democrats for assistance in scrounging
together the votes he needs to avoid a shutdown.
Intensifying the pressure, Representative Matt Gaetz, a Florida Republican and frequent critic of the speaker,
planned to deliver a floor speech on Tuesday outlining the arch-conservative case against Mr. McCarthy,
laying the groundwork for a potential move to oust him. The criticism was to cover what Mr. Gaetz and others
see as Mr. McCarthy’s failure to live up to promises he made to win the speakership, including his handling of
the budget process and continuing investigations of President Biden and his family.
“Stay tuned,” Mr. Gaetz said on Monday night when reached for comment, though he declined to elaborate.
In a bid to hold off his detractors, allies of Mr. McCarthy said he would tell House Republicans this week that
he endorsed an impeachment inquiry into Mr. Biden, a plan reported earlier by Punchbowl News. The move
is intended to rally conservatives behind him, but it is unclear whether it would be sufficient to protect him
from a challenge should he cross the right wing in the spending negotiations.
Members of the ultraconservative Freedom Caucus were also planning a public event on Tuesday to vent
their discontent with the spending landscape.
“The American people expect us to actually fight for them,” Representative Chip Roy, Republican of Texas
and a member of the Freedom Caucus, told reporters at the Capitol on Monday. “And speaking as a Texan,
I can’t just sit here and rubber-stamp the status quo.”
With Mr. Roy and others railing against plans to temporarily extend funding while the House and the Senate
consider yearlong spending bills, Mr. McCarthy faces his most serious leadership test since May, when
opposition from the hard right forced him to turn to Democrats to suspend the federal debt ceiling and avoid
an economically calamitous default. Right-wing Republicans were irate at the bipartisan compromise, saying
the spending levels were far too high.
Mr. McCarthy, who made a series of major concessions to the right wing to win their support to become
speaker, faced a brief internal rebellion after the debt deal, but managed to hold on to his post. Now,
members of the same faction are warning that he may not survive if he resorts to the same tactics.
“I think there’s a perfect storm brewing in the House in the near future,” Representative Ken Buck, Republican
of Colorado, said Sunday on MSNBC.
On the eve of the House’s return, White House officials said on Monday that Mr. Biden would veto a Pentagon
spending measure the chamber is to consider this week. The veto threat assailed House Republicans for
proposing to cut spending below the levels agreed to in the Fiscal Responsibility Act negotiated this year
between the speaker and the president.
“House Republicans had an opportunity to engage in a productive, bipartisan appropriations process,” the
White House veto statement said, “but instead, with less than a month before the end of the fiscal year, are
wasting time with partisan bills that cut domestic spending to levels well below the F.R.A. agreement and
endanger critical services for the American people.”
But the real threat to Mr. McCarthy in navigating the spending fight came not from the White House, but from
within his own ranks.
House Republicans are split on the level of spending for both the routine annual spending bills to fund the
government through the next year and a temporary measure to avert a shutdown while negotiations over
bills continue. In the Senate, Republicans have joined with Democrats in pushing a higher level of spending
than House Republicans want, potentially providing the Senate with significant leverage in future
negotiations.
Most Senate Republicans are also aligned with Democrats on the need for more financial aid for Ukraine in
its war with Russia and want it added to any temporary funding measure. House Republicans have shown
growing resistance to such aid.
At the same time, hard-right conservatives are insisting on policy changes such as eliminating funding for the
Justice Department’s prosecution of former President Donald J. Trump and new abortion restrictions that have
no chance of getting through the Senate or being signed into law by Mr. Biden. Mr. Trump has also urged
House Republicans to hold firm against spending without Democratic concessions, a message that resonates
with many of them.
“I agree with President Trump that Congress must use the September 30th government funding deadline to
cut off funding for Biden’s open border policies and SECURE THE BORDER!” Representative Mary Miller,
Republican of Illinois, said on X, formerly Twitter.
And with only four votes to spare on the best of days, Mr. McCarthy may have even less of a margin for error
in the coming weeks because of health absences.
While many conservatives dismiss the potential repercussions of a shutdown as minor, Mr. McCarthy has the
backing of a significant portion of House Republicans who want to avoid one because of the political
consequences as well as the detrimental impact on the public and federal agencies.
Appearing on CNN on Monday, Representative David Joyce, an Ohio Republican who sits on the
Appropriations Committee, said Republicans should expect to win only so much in spending talks considering
that Democrats control the Senate and the White House. He noted that past shutdowns had backfired on
Republicans.
“We have these shutdowns and they haven’t accomplished a hell of a lot,” Mr. Joyce said. “As far as making
our government function and making it work for the American people, it doesn’t make a lot of sense.”
But Mr. Roy and like-minded conservatives say the threat of a shutdown is what gives them power at the
moment, and he encouraged Mr. McCarthy to work with them to come to an agreement on the spending
bills.
“When Kevin works with us to sit down to achieve conservative ends and get 218 Republican votes, we’ve
been successful,” Mr. Roy said. “That’s my advice to him in September.”
Efforts to pass individual spending bills stalled in the House in July over internal Republican divisions on
spending and policy provisions. Mr. McCarthy hopes to restart the process this week by considering the
Pentagon spending bill, which typically draws broad bipartisan support. Democrats are opposing all the
House spending measures, however, because they break from the debt limit deal, and it is unclear if the
Pentagon legislation has sufficient Republican votes to pass.
In contrast to the House, the Senate on Tuesday was to take up its initial spending bills with debate possibly
stretching into next week.
On Monday, Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader, urged Mr. McCarthy
to rebuff the demands of the far right and advance bills on a bipartisan basis as the Senate is doing.
“I implore House Republicans to follow the Senate’s example, reject all-or-nothing tactics, reject unrealistic
extreme demands,” Mr. Schumer said. “Don’t let 30 people way out on the extreme dictate what the House
does.”
On a sweeping patio overlooking the golf course at his private club in Bedminster, N.J., former President
Donald J. Trump dined Sunday night with a close political ally, Marjorie Taylor Greene.
It was a chance for the former president to catch up with the hard-right Georgia congresswoman. But over
halibut and Diet Cokes, Ms. Greene brought up an issue of considerable interest to Mr. Trump — the push by
House Republicans to impeach his likely opponent in next year’s election.
“I did brief him on the strategy that I want to see laid out with impeachment,” Ms. Greene said in a brief
phone interview.
Mr. Trump’s dinner with Ms. Greene came just two nights before Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced his
decision on Tuesday to order the opening of an impeachment inquiry into President Biden, under intense
pressure from his right flank.
Over the past several months, Mr. Trump has kept a close watch on House Republicans’ momentum toward
impeaching Mr. Biden. Mr. Trump has talked regularly by phone with members of the ultraconservative House
Freedom Caucus and other congressional Republicans who pushed for impeachment, according to a person
close to Mr. Trump who was not authorized to publicly discuss the conversations. Mr. Trump has encouraged
the effort both privately and publicly.
Ms. Greene, who has introduced articles of impeachment against Mr. Biden, said she told Mr. Trump that she
wanted the impeachment inquiry to be “long and excruciatingly painful for Joe Biden.”
She would not say what Mr. Trump said in response, but she said her ultimate goal was to have a “long list of
names” — people whom she claimed were co-conspirators involved in Biden family crimes. She said she was
confident Mr. Trump would win back the White House in 2024 and that she wanted “to go after every single
one of them and use the Department of Justice to prosecute them.”
While Mr. Biden’s son Hunter was charged in June with two misdemeanor tax offenses and a felony firearm
offense, Republicans have not shown that Mr. Biden committed any crimes. House Republicans are
proceeding with the impeachment inquiry without proof that Mr. Biden took official actions as vice president
to benefit his son’s financial interests or that he directly profited from his son’s foreign deals.
Mr. Trump has also spoken weekly over the past month to Representative Elise Stefanik of New York, the third-
ranking House Republican, according to a person familiar with the conversations who was not authorized to
discuss them publicly. During those conversations, Ms. Stefanik also briefed Mr. Trump on the impeachment
inquiry strategy, this person said.
The former president thanked Ms. Stefanik for publicly backing the impeachment inquiry in July, the person
added. Ms. Stefanik, who talked to Mr. Trump again on Tuesday after Mr. McCarthy ordered the
impeachment inquiry, had been the first member of House Republican leadership to publicly call for taking
the first step in the process of impeaching Mr. Biden.
A person familiar with Mr. Trump’s thinking said that despite his eagerness to see an inquiry move forward, the
former president has not been twisting Mr. McCarthy’s arm. Mr. Trump has been far more aggressive in pushing
several members to wipe his own impeachment record clean, the person said, potentially by getting
Congress to take the unprecedented step of expunging his two impeachments from the House record.
Mr. Trump has not been expressing concern about the possibility that the McCarthy impeachment effort might
backfire and benefit Mr. Biden, according to two people with direct knowledge of his private statements over
several months. Instead, he wondered to an ally why there had been no movement on impeaching Mr. Biden
once he learned that the House was back in session.
A spokesman for Mr. McCarthy did not respond to a question about his interactions with the former president
regarding impeachment.
When asked for comment, Mr. Trump’s communications director, Steven Cheung, pointed to Mr. Trump’s
public statements about impeaching Mr. Biden.
The former president’s public commentary on the possibility of a Biden impeachment has escalated from
wistful musings about the Justice Department’s supposed inaction to explicit demands.
“They persecuted us and yet Joe Biden is a stone-cold criminal, caught dead to right, and nothing happens
to him. Forget the family. Nothing happens to him,” the former president said at a rally in March.
In a June town hall with the Fox News host Sean Hannity, Mr. Trump lamented what happened after authorities
found boxes of classified documents in both Mar-a-Lago and the Bidens’ Delaware residence.
“It is a dual system of government,” Mr. Trump said. “You talk about law and order. You can’t have law and
order in a country where you have such corruption.”
That same month, after Mr. Trump was arraigned on charges that he had improperly retained sensitive
national security documents and obstructed investigators, he declared that if re-elected he would appoint
a special prosecutor to “go after” Mr. Biden and his family.
By July, Mr. Trump had begun suggesting that Republicans should impeach the president, and as the summer
wore on, he conveyed his desire with greater urgency.
“So, they impeach me over a ‘perfect’ phone call, and they don’t impeach Biden for being the most corrupt
president in the history of the United States???” Mr. Trump wrote in all caps on his website, Truth Social.
In yet another nearly all-cap Truth Social post in late August, the former president wrote, referring to
congressional Republicans: “Either impeach the bum, or fade into oblivion. They did it to us!”
Former president Donald Trump pointed to sympathetic comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin early
Wednesday to try to bolster his case that he is being treated unfairly by prosecutors in the United States.
Trump, who is facing 91 charges in four separate criminal cases and who has accused prosecutors of
targeting him to hamper his political future, posted on his social media platform just after midnight that Putin
essentially agrees with him. Trump leads a large field of candidates for the 2024 Republican presidential
nomination.
Putin, who has a history of persecuting his political opponents, claimed Tuesday that the criminal cases
against Trump were part of “the persecution of a political rival for political reasons.” He predicted that the
proceedings against Trump would diminish America’s global standing, to Russia’s benefit.
“As for the prosecution of Trump, for us what is happening in today’s conditions, in my opinion, is good
because it shows the rottenness of the American political system, which cannot pretend to teach others
democracy,” Putin said at an economic forum in eastern Russia.
The comments reflected the largely warm relationship between the two leaders during Trump’s presidency,
which included a 2018 summit at which Trump refused to support the collective conclusion of U.S. intelligence
agencies that Russia had interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
Trump has continued to maintain that he and Putin are on good terms, despite the isolation of Putin by the
West for his invasion of Ukraine — which Trump once described as “genius” and “savvy.”
Trump’s Republican primary rivals quickly seized on Putin’s latest remarks. In a statement, former vice
president Mike Pence said Putin’s opinion has no value in the United States.
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“America’s founding principles will always stand the test of time,” Pence said. “Putin should be more
concerned about how quickly his military went from being the second most powerful in the world to the
second most powerful in Ukraine.”
Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, one of the most vocal Trump critics in the GOP field, called Putin
a “brutal, mass-murdering, KGB hitman” and said that Trump needs new role models.
“Get it straight. Trump is under indictment because of his conduct. He played with fire and is getting burned.
And now his best buddy is coming to his defense,” Christie wrote in a social media post. “If you are on the
same side as Putin, you might want to rethink your position.”
Former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, also a longtime critic of Trump, noted that Trump and Putin are
using the same talking points and said Trump’s actions are “giving comfort to our enemies.” Former Wyoming
congresswoman Liz Cheney (R), who has not ruled out a presidential run if it would keep Trump from serving
a second term, also blasted both Putin and pro-Trump Republicans.
“Putin has now officially endorsed the Putin-wing of the Republican Party,” Cheney wrote. “Putin Republicans
& their enablers will end up on the ash heap of history. Patriotic Americans in both parties who believe in the
values of liberal democracy will make sure of it.”
In Russia, Putin and his allies have cracked down on dissent, most recently against many who have protested
the country’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was convicted last month on “extremism” charges and sentenced
to 19 years in a special regime prison colony, on top of an existing 11-year sentence. The special regime prison
colony, the harshest in Russia’s penal system, keeps prisoners in cells with the lights constantly on, barred from
speaking, and Navalny will be prohibited from receiving family visits or letters for 10 years.
Russian-British human rights activist Vladimir Kara-Murza, a contributor to The Washington Post, was sentenced
to 25 years in prison in April on treason and other charges for criticizing Russia’s war on Ukraine.
“Such is the price for speaking up in Russia today,” Kara-Murza said in his last court statement.
In the United States, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has divided GOP lawmakers over whether Washington
should continue to support Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself. Trump and some congressional Republicans have
called for ending or slowing aid to Ukraine, while others, notably Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-
Ky.), have steadfastly supported Ukraine.
Soon after making his comments in eastern Russia, Putin met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, another
autocrat widely shunned by the global community. Trump praised the North Korean dictator during his
presidency, noting that Kim wrote him “beautiful letters.”
Putin and Kim toured a Russian spaceport, the Vostochny Cosmodrome, and affirmed their commitment to
strengthening their ties. Kim also expressed his total support for Russia as it faces sanctions and isolation over
its invasion of Ukraine.
“I hope that we will always stand together in the fight against imperialism,” Kim said.