Britannica Mathematics in Context Data Analysis and Probability Great Predictions

Great
Predictions
Data Analysis and
Probability
Mathematics in Context is a comprehensive curriculum for the middle grades.
It was developed in 1991 through 1997 in collaboration with the Wisconsin Center
for Education Research, School of Education, University of Wisconsin-Madison and
the Freudenthal Institute at the University of Utrecht, The Netherlands, with the
support of the National Science Foundation Grant No. 9054928.
The revision of the curriculum was carried out in 2003 through 2005, with the
support of the National Science Foundation Grant No. ESI 0137414.
National Science Foundation

Opinions expressed are those of the authors
and not necessarily those of the Foundation.
Roodhardt, A., Wijers, M., Bakker, A., Cole, B. R., and Burrill, G. (2006). Great
Predictions. In Wisconsin Center for Education Research & Freudenthal Institute
(Eds.), Mathematics in context. Chicago: Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc.
Copyright © 2006 Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc.
All rights reserved.

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ISBN 0-03-038572-5
1 2 3 4 5 6 073 09 08 07 06 05
The Mathematics in Context Development Team
Development 1991–1997
The initial version of Great Expectations was developed by Anton Roodhardt and Monica Wijers.
It was adapted for use in American schools by Beth R. Cole and Gail Burrill.
Wisconsin Center for Education Freudenthal Institute Staff

Research Staff
Thomas A. Romberg Joan Daniels Pedro Jan de Lange
Director Assistant to the Director Director
Gail Burrill Margaret R. Meyer Els Feijs Martin van Reeuwijk
Coordinator Coordinator Coordinator Coordinator
Project Staff
Jonathan Brendefur Sherian Foster Mieke Abels Jansie Niehaus
Laura Brinker James A, Middleton Nina Boswinkel Nanda Querelle
James Browne Jasmina Milinkovic Frans van Galen Anton Roodhardt
Jack Burrill Margaret A. Pligge Koeno Gravemeijer Leen Streefland
Rose Byrd Mary C. Shafer Marja van den Heuvel-Panhuizen
Peter Christiansen Julia A. Shew Jan Auke de Jong Adri Treffers
Barbara Clarke Aaron N. Simon Vincent Jonker Monica Wijers
Doug Clarke Marvin Smith Ronald Keijzer Astrid de Wild
Beth R. Cole Stephanie Z. Smith Martin Kindt
Fae Dremock Mary S. Spence
Mary Ann Fix
Revision 2003–2005
The revised version of Great Predictions was developed Arthur Bakker and Monica Wijers.
It was adapted for use in American Schools by Gail Burrill.
Wisconsin Center for Education Freudenthal Institute Staff

Research Staff
Thomas A. Romberg David C. Webb Jan de Lange Truus Dekker
Director Coordinator Director Coordinator
Gail Burrill Margaret A. Pligge Mieke Abels Monica Wijers
Editorial Coordinator Editorial Coordinator Content Coordinator Content Coordinator
Project Staff
Sarah Ailts Margaret R. Meyer Arthur Bakker Nathalie Kuijpers
Beth R. Cole Anne Park Peter Boon Huub Nilwik
Erin Hazlett Bryna Rappaport Els Feijs Sonia Palha
Teri Hedges Kathleen A. Steele Dédé de Haan Nanda Querelle
Karen Hoiberg Ana C. Stephens Martin Kindt Martin van Reeuwijk
Carrie Johnson Candace Ulmer
Jean Krusi Jill Vettrus
Elaine McGrath
(c) 2006 Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc. Mathematics in Context
and the Mathematics in Context Logo are registered trademarks
of Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc.
Cover photo credits: (left, middle) © Getty Images; (right) © Comstock Images
Illustrations
8 Holly Cooper-Olds; 12 James Alexander; 17, 18, 24 Holly Cooper-Olds;
28, 29 James Alexander; 34, 36, 40 Christine McCabe/© Encyclopædia Britannica,
Inc.; 44 Holly Cooper-Olds
Photographs
1 Photodisc/Getty Images; 2 © Raymond Gehman/Corbis; 3 USDA Forest Service–
Region; 4 Archives, USDA Forest Service, www.forestryimages.org; 7 © Robert
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Alamy; 45 Dynamic Graphics Group/ Creatas/Alamy; 47 © Corbis
Contents
Letter to the Student vi
Section A Drawing Conclusions from Samples

Chance or Not? 1
Taking Samples 4
Populations and Sampling 8
Summary 10
Check Your Work 10
Section B Maybe There is a Connection

Opinion Poll 12
Insect Repellent 16
Ape Shapes 17
Glasses 18
Summary 20
Check Your Work 21
Section C Reasoning From Samples

Fish Farmer 24
Backpack Weight 28
Summary 30
Check Your Work 30
Section D Expectations
Carpooling 32
Advertising 34
Expected Life of a Mayfly 36
Free Throws 36
Summary 38
Check Your Work 38
Section E Combining Situations

Free Meal 40
Delayed Luggage 45
Summary 48
Check Your Work 49
Additional Practice 50
Answers to Check Your Work 55
Contents v
Dear Student,
Welcome to Great Predictions!
Surveys report that teens prefer

brand-name jeans over any other
jeans.
Do you think you can believe all the conclusions that are reported as
“survey results”? How can the results be true if they are based on
the responses of just a few people?
In this unit, you will investigate how statistics can help you study,
and answer, those questions. As you explore the activities in this
unit, watch for articles in newspapers and magazines about surveys.
Bring them to class and discuss how the ideas of this unit help you
interpret the surveys.
When you finish Great Predictions, you will appreciate how people
use statistics to interpret surveys and make decisions.
Sincerely,
The Mathematics in Context Development Team
vi Great Predictions
A
Drawing Conclusions
from Samples
Chance or Not?
How Do Television Networks Rate Their Programs?
People often complain about the number of commercials aired during

their favorite television program, but the money brought in by these
commercials pays the majority of the cost of producing the program.
The cost of airing a commercial during a television program largely
depends on the current rating of the program. Popular television
programs often charge top dollar for a one-minute commercial spot,
while less popular programs charge less money. Therefore, television
networks look closely at each program’s rating on a weekly basis.
The rating for a particular show is the percent of households with TVs
that watch the show. How do the major television networks determine
who is watching what program?
Section A: Drawing Conclusions from Samples 1

A Drawing Conclusions from Samples
At one time, independent survey companies asked a large sample of

people to complete a diary in which they listed all the programs they
watched each week. For example, in a city with 297,970 households
with TVs, the survey company might have 463 households keep diaries.
1. a. Why didn’t survey companies give a diary to every household?
b. How do you think survey results could be used to estimate the
overall popularity of television programs?
c. Suppose that 230 of the 463 surveyed households watched the
Super Bowl. How would you estimate the total number of
households in that city that watched the Super Bowl?
d. How reliable do you think the estimate would be?
A Forest at Risk
In a forested area near Snow Creek, an

average of 12 trees per 10 acres died from
severe weather conditions over the last
several years. But this year from January
to August, forest rangers reported about
42 dead or dying trees per 10 acres.
2. a. The forest near Snow Creek is
about 5,000 acres. How many
trees would you normally expect
to die from storms in the area?
b. Explain whether you think the
foresters should be concerned
about the health of the trees.
Many insects and diseases are an important part of creating healthy

and diverse patterns of vegetation in the forests, even though they
sometimes kill or stunt large patches of trees. In addition, trees are
often stressed by weather conditions (too much or too little water, for
example) and die.
In many areas of the Rocky Mountains, the forest rangers found
clusters of trees scattered throughout the forests that were dying.
They discovered that the trees were infested by a beetle that burrows
into the bark.
2 Great Predictions
Drawing Conclusions from Samples A
The mountain pine beetle is the most aggressive

and destructive insect affecting pine trees in
western North America. Pine beetles are part of
the natural cycle in forests. Recent evidence
indicates that in certain regions, mountain pine
beetle populations are on the rise.
In the Rocky Mountains, more trees were dying than was normally
expected.
3. a. Reflect The number of dead or dying trees seemed to be
different in certain areas, for example in Snow Creek and the
Rocky Mountains. What may have caused this difference?
b. What do you think foresters do to support their case that
the change in the number of damaged and dying trees is
something to watch?
There is a similarity between the two examples presented in questions

2 and 3. In each case, an important question is being raised.
When is a difference from an expected outcome a coincidence (or due
to chance), and when could there be another explanation that needs
to be investigated?
Keep this question in mind throughout this section as you look at
other situations. For the example about Snow Creek, the high number
of death or dying trees seemed to be a coincidence, while there
seemed to be an explanation for the high rate of dying trees in the
Rocky Mountains.
For each of the following situations, the result may be due to chance
or perhaps there is another explanation. For each situation, give an
explanation other than chance. Then decide which cause you think is
more likely, your explanation or chance.
4. a. A basketball player made eleven free throws in a row.
b. Each of the last seven cars that drove past a school was red.
c. In your town, the sun has not been out for two weeks.
d. On the drive to school one morning, all the traffic lights were
green.
e. All of the winners of an elementary school raffle were
first-graders.
5. Reflect If something unusual happened in your life, how would

you decide whether it was due to chance or something else?
Give an example.
Taking Samples
Here are some terms that are helpful when you want to talk about
chance.
A population is the whole group in which you are interested.
A sample is a part of that population.
In a town of 400 people, 80 subscribe

to the local newspaper. This could be
represented in a diagram in which
80 out of 400 squares have been filled
in randomly. So the red squares
represent the subscribers.
A researcher wants to take a random sample of ten people from

the population in the town. You are going to simulate taking the
sample by using the diagram on Student Activity Sheet 1.
Close your eyes and hold your pencil over the diagram on
Student Activity Sheet 1. Let the tip of your pencil land lightly
on the diagram. Open your eyes and note where the tip landed.
Do this experiment a total of 10 times, keeping track of how many
times you land on a black square. The 10 squares that you land on
are a sample.
4 Great Predictions
6. a. Do you think that, in general, there is a better chance of

landing on a white square or on a black square?
b. What is the chance (probability) of landing on a black square?
How did you calculate the chance?
c. Organize the samples from the entire class in a chart like the
one shown.
d. Look carefully at the chart below and describe what this tells
you about the random samples. How well do the samples
reflect the overall population with respect to the subscribers
to the newspaper?
Number of Number of
Black Squares Students Who
in 10 Tries Get This Number
10

It can be difficult to draw a conclusion about a population from a

sample. Consider the following problem, in which members of a
population are represented by squares.
Each of the samples was taken from one of three different populations.
Population A has 200 red squares out of 1,000. Population B has 300
red squares out of 1,000, and Population C has 500 red squares out
of 1,000.
i ii iii iv
v vi vii viii
7. a. For each sample, decide whether you think it belongs to

Population A, Population B, or Population C. Explain why
you made each decision. What is the size of each sample?
b. Which samples do you find the most difficult to classify? Why
are these difficult?
c. What do you think is the problem with making a conclusion
based on a sample?
6 Great Predictions
Who Prefers Which Yogurt?

Tara is trying to determine whether students at her school prefer
vanilla, banana, or strawberry yogurt. She asks four friends and
records their preferences. Based on their preferences Tara decides
that half the school prefers strawberry, 25% prefer vanilla, and 25%
prefer banana.
Carla is interested in the same question. She stands at the door as
students are leaving school and asks 50 students which flavor they
prefer. She decides that 22% prefer strawberry, 26% prefer vanilla,
and 52% prefer banana.
8. a. How did Tara and Carla come up with the percentages?
b. Reflect If you were ordering the yogurt for the school picnic,
on whose results would you base your order, Tara’s or Carla’s?
Why?
Who’s Going to the Zoo?

Suppose you are the director of a zoo and you
are having students in the area attend the
grand opening of a new primate center.
There are five schools in your area, each with
300–500 students, but you know that not every
student will be able to attend. You randomly
choose 20 students from each school and ask
whether they would be interested in attending.
Your survey results suggest that 30 students
say that they will attend, and 70 students say
that they will not attend.
9. a. If 2,000 students live in the area, how

many would you expect to come to the
grand opening?
b. Reflect To plan the grand opening,
what else do you need to know?
In the zoo problem, you could not know the percent of students in the
population who would attend, so you needed a sample to estimate
the percent.
10. To answer problem 9a, you probably assumed that the sample and
the population had the same percentage of students who wanted
to attend the opening. How reasonable is this assumption?

Who Was in the House?

The illustration represents the U.S. House of Representatives during a
session. The House has 435 members. You can see from the empty
chairs that some members were missing.
11. a. Explain why the illustration represents a sample of the

members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
b. You may assume that this sample is randomly chosen. How
many members do you think attended the session?
Populations and Sampling

What Kind of Music Do You Like?
Natasha and David think that the school should play music in the
cafeteria during lunch. The principal agrees that it is a good idea and
tells David and Natasha to find out what kind of music the students
want. The two decide to survey the students in their next classes and
also to ask anyone else they happen to meet in the halls. Natasha
goes to band class, and David goes to his computer class. Natasha
and David present the results of their survey to the principal.
12. Write a brief note to the principal explaining why the results of
the survey of Natasha and David should not be used to make a
decision about what kind of music to play in the cafeteria.
8 Great Predictions
NEWS WATCH: DATA POINT;

For the Music Lover, Gray Hair Is No Barrier to White Earbuds
By MARK GLASSMAN
Published: February 17, 2005
digital music players. “I would think
Youthful silhouettes rocking out
that we’ll even have accelerating
may be the new fresh faces of portable
growth over the next year or two.” He
digital music, but—shh!— grown-ups
said more adults would probably buy
are listening, too.
the devices “as more players come
Roughly one in nine Americans 18 or
into the market; as the price point rolls
older has an iPod or an MP3 player,
down; as Apple itself rolls out new
according to survey results released this
products.”
week by the Pew Internet and American
The survey, drawing on responses
Life Project.
of 2,201 people by telephone, also
Younger adults were the most likely
revealed a small gender gap, with more
group to own the devices. Roughly one
men (14 percent) owning the devices
in five people 18 to 28 years old said
than women (9 percent). “Look at any
they had a music player. About 2 percent
technology deployment over the last
of those 69 and over reported owning
century and a half,” Mr. Rainie said.
one.
“Men tend to be dominant early on,
“It’s obviously just now reaching the
and women tend to catch up.”
tipping point as a technology,” Lee
Rainie, the project director, said of
Source: New York Times, February 17, 2005
13. a. What population was studied in the article?

b. Describe the sample taken: do you think this is a good sample?
Why or why not?
c. Do you think you can believe the claim made in the second
paragraph of the article: “Roughly one in nine Americans 18 or
older has an iPod or an MP3 player.” Explain your reasoning.
d. How do you think the results will be different if this study were
to be repeated 5 years from now?

Drawing conclusions from samples always involves uncertainty.
In the case of the television ratings, it would take too much time and
cost too much money to find the exact number of people who watch
a certain program. Instead, information from a random sample can
be used to deduce information about the whole group. By doing this,
you introduce uncertainty.
Information from a sample drawn from a population may or may not

be what you would expect about the population. If a sample seems
unusual, you have to think about whether there could be an explanation
or whether the difference is due to chance. In Snow Creek the higher
number of damaged trees seemed to be due to chance, but in the
Rocky Mountains the unusual high number of damaged trees could be
explained by the increasing numbers of mountain pine beetles.
Sample results can be affected by the way questions are asked and
the way the sample was selected.
When taking a sample, it is important to do so randomly so that every

different possible sample of the size you want from the population
has the same chance of being selected.
Bora Middle School has a total of 250 students. A survey about pets
was conducted at the school. Sixty percent of the students have one
or more pets.
1. How many students in Bora Middle School have one or more
pets?
10 Great Predictions
Claire asked 20 students in her sixth-grade science class if they have
any pets.
2. a. How many of the 20 students do you expect answered “yes”?
Explain.
b. It turned out that 16 out of the 20 students that Claire surveyed
have one or more pets. Does this result surprise you? Why or
why not?
c. Why do you think so many students in Claire’s science class
have pets?
3. a. If Claire had asked 200 students at Bora Middle School instead

of 20, how many would you expect to have pets?
b. Would you be surprised if Claire told you she found that 160
out of the 200 have pets? Explain your answer.
4. Suppose you want to know how many students in your school

have pets. You cannot take a survey or ask all students. In what
way would you select a sample to find out how many students
in your school have pets? Give reasons for your answer.
When sampling is done to rate television programs, the poll takers

do not take a random sample of the entire population. Instead they
divide the population into age groups. What are some of the reasons
why they might do this?

B
Maybe There Is a
Connection
Opinion Poll
Next month, the citizens of Milo will vote on the following referendum.
Question: Should the city of Milo construct a second bridge
between the east and west districts?
The local newspaper organized an opinion poll using a sample of

the city’s residents. The diagram on the next page shows the results.
Each square represents a person who took part in the poll and shows
approximately where he or she lives. A white square means that the
person plans to vote “no,” and a green square indicates that the
person plans to vote “yes.”
Maybe There is a Connection B
Bridge
River
West District: East District:

200 Citizens Polled 100 Citizens Polled
1. a. Do you think a majority of the citizens will vote for a new bridge?
Make an estimate from the diagram to support your answer.
b. Based on the sample, what is the chance that someone who
lives in the west district will vote “yes”?
You might wonder whether there is a connection between where

people live and how they plan to vote.
2. a. Count the actual responses to the bridge poll as shown in the
diagram. Use a two-way table like the one shown to organize
your numbers.
West East Total
Yes
No
Total 200 100 300
b. Which group of people, those in the east district or those in the

west district, seem to be more in favor of the bridge?
c. Do you think that there is a connection in the town of Milo
between where people live and how they plan to vote?
Explain your reasoning.
Section B: Maybe There is a Connection 13

B Maybe There is a Connection
Yes
West Vote
No
Population Place person lives
Yes
East Vote
No
You can separate the 300 members of the sample into two groups:
those who live in the west district and those who live in the east
district. You can subdivide each of the two groups into two more
groups: those who plan to vote “yes” and those who plan to vote
“no,” for a total of four groups. You can describe this situation
using a tree diagram.
Because it is not possible to draw a branch for each person in the
sample, branches are combined in such a way that you have two
branches, one for the people living in the west district and one for
the people in the east.
3. a. What number of people does the branch for people living in
the west district represent?
b. Redraw the tree-diagram, filling in each of the boxes with the
appropriate number from problem 2.
c. Reflect Which method—a two-way table or a tree diagram—
seems more helpful to you for finding out whether there is a
connection between where people live and how they will vote?
Give a reason for your choice.
There are two possibilities for voting on the Milo bridge.

i. There is no connection between where people live and how
they will vote. In other words, the two factors, or “events,” are
independent. Another way to think about this is that the chance
of a “yes” vote is the same for all citizens, no matter on which
side of the river they live.
ii. There is a connection. The two events are dependent. In this
case, how a person votes is affected by where the person lives.
4. For voting on the Milo bridge, which possibility seems more likely
to you, possibility i or ii? Give a reason for your choice.
If the events are dependent, sometimes you can explain the connection
by looking carefully at the situation.
5. Reflect What are some reasons that people on different sides of
the river might vote differently on the Milo bridge?
Now let’s suppose there is no connection between where people live

and how they will vote. In other words, those events are independent.
In the first column of the two-way table below, you can see how
people in the west district voted.
West East Total
Yes 120
No 80
Total 200 100 300
6. a. Assuming that the events “where a person lives” and “how

that person votes” are independent, how many people from
the east district have voted “yes” and how many have voted
“no”? Copy and complete the table. Explain how you got your
answer.
b. Reflect In general, how can you use the numbers in a table
or diagram to decide whether two events are dependent or
independent? Hint: Use the word ratio or percent in your
answer.

Insect Repellent
A new insect repellent was tested to see whether it prevents
mosquito bites. It was not feasible to test the repellent on the
entire U.S. population, so the researchers used a sample.
Because mosquitoes may be different in different parts of
the country, the researchers ran the test in four different
geographical regions. A sample of people was selected from
each region and divided into two groups. Each person received
a bottle of lotion. For one group, the lotion contained the new
repellent, and for the other group, the lotion had no repellent.
The people in each group did not know whether or not they
received the repellent.
7. Why do you think the test was designed in such a
complicated way?
The researchers ran the insect repellent test in four parts of the
country and summarized the results.
Region I Region II
R NR Totals R NR Totals
B 41 53 94 B 70 58 128
NB 79 27 106 NB 40 32 72
Totals 120 80 200 Totals 110 90 200
Region III Region IV

R NR Totals R NR Totals
KEY: 100 49 149 50 61 111
B B
R Repellent
NR No Repellent NB 30 21 51 NB 60 29 89
B Bitten
Totals 130 70 200 Totals 110 90 200
NB Not Bitten
8. a. How many people were used for the sample from Region I?
b. In Region I, explain what the numbers 120, 41, and 79 represent.
c. What is the chance that a randomly selected person from the
sample in Region 1 was bitten?
d. Would you change your answer to c, if you were told the person
had used repellent?
9. If you knew people living in each of the four parts of the country,
who would you encourage to use the repellent and who would
you discourage? Explain your advice; use chance in your
explanation.
Ape Shapes
Koko is an orangutan at the zoo. She is allowed to play with blocks
that come in three shapes—cylinders, cubes, and pyramids. They
also come in two colors—blue and orange. Here are 40 blocks that
Koko took out of a bucket full of blocks.
10. a. If Koko randomly chooses one of her 40 blocks, what is the

chance that it will be a cube?
b. What is the chance that the block Koko chooses will be blue?
The zookeepers wonder whether there is a connection between the

shape of a block and its color for the blocks Koko chose. In other
words, does Koko like blue cubes better than orange ones? Orange
cylinders better than blue ones? And so on.
The first step in answering this question is to organize the data.
Total 11. a. Copy the two-way table and record the

information about the 40 blocks Koko
Blue has chosen.
Orange b. Is there a connection between block
shape and color? How did you decide?
Total

Koko and the zookeeper play a game with some

zoo visitors. Koko picks up one of her 40 blocks
and shows it to the visitors. The zookeeper, who
is blindfolded, guesses the color.
The zookeeper guesses orange.
12. What is the chance that she is right?
During the game, one of the zoo visitors says that the shape Koko
chose is a cube.
Again, the zookeeper guesses orange.
13. What is the chance that she is right this time?
The information that the shape is a cube changes the situation

because now there are fewer possible blocks; in other words, it
changes the chance that the block is orange.
14. What shape can Koko choose that will give the zookeeper the
least help in guessing the color? Explain.
Glasses
In this two-way table, you see data on people
wearing glasses. The data are from a sample
of 130 people.
Men Women Total
Glasses 32 3 35
No Glasses 56 39 95
Total 88 42 130
A person from this sample is chosen at random.

15. a. What is the chance that the person wears glasses?
b. If you were told that the person is a woman, would you change
your answer for part a? How?
The data from the table can be used to make a tree diagram.
16. Copy and complete the tree diagram by filling in the correct
numbers in the boxes.
Glasses
Man No
68% Glasses
130
Woman Glasses
No
Glasses
You can make the tree diagram into a chance tree by listing the chance,
or probability, for each event. The chances are written next to the
arrows. For example, the chance that a person from the sample is a
man is 68%.
17. a. Explain how the 68% was calculated from the data in the table.
b. Fill in the chance for each event in your tree diagram.
c. Use the tree diagram to find the chance a randomly selected
person from this sample is a man wearing glasses.
18. a. Reflect Explain how you can use the chance tree to conclude
that wearing glasses is dependent on whether the person is a
man or a woman.
b. What would your chance tree look like if wearing glasses was
independent of being a man or a woman?
In this section, you studied methods to investigate whether two events

are dependent or independent. Two-way tables, tree diagrams, and
chance trees are three tools to help you make such decisions.
Men Women Total
Glasses 32 3 35
No Glasses 56 39 95
Total 88 42 130
Glasses
Man No
68% Glasses
130
Woman Glasses
No
Glasses
You can use each of these tools to decide whether members of

particular groups are more likely to have a certain property.
While tools like this can help you decide if two events are possibly
dependent, they cannot help you find out why a connection exists.
Garlic has been used in medicine for thousands of years by traditional
healers. Recent studies suggest that garlic has many health benefits,
such as lowering blood pressure.
The table shows results of a study with a sample of 200 people who
evaluated whether garlic actually lowers blood pressure. Not all cells
have been filled in.
No Change in Lower
Total
Blood Pressure Blood Pressure
Using Garlic 27 73
No Garlic 100
Total 87
1. a. Copy the table and fill in the missing numbers.

b. What is the chance that a randomly chosen person in the
study has a lower blood pressure?
c. What is this chance if you were told the person had used
garlic?
d. Show how you can use the data in the table to make clear that
a connection between using garlic and lower blood pressure
might exist.
2. Make up numbers that show no connection between garlic and

lower blood pressure. (Use a total of 200 people.)

Some people have problems driving in the dark. Researchers wonder

whether this is different for men and women.
3. a. Who would be interested in knowing whether there is a
difference between men and women and driving in the dark?
Researchers have studied the ability to drive in the dark for a sample
of 1,000 people, half of whom were women and half men. They found
that 34% of the men and 58% of the women had problems driving in
the dark. So they suspected that a connection exists.
b. Fill in the table with the correct numbers.
No Problem Driving Problems Driving

Total
in the Dark in the Dark
Men
Women
Total
c. Make a chance tree that would represent the situation in the

table.
d. What is the chance that a randomly chosen person from this
group has problems driving in the dark?
e. Did you use the table or the chance tree to find the chance in
part d? Give a reason for your choice.
4. At Tacoma Middle School, a survey was held to find how many

hours a week students spend at home on their school work.
These are the results.
Less Than 3 Hours 3 Hours a Week

Total
a Week or More
Grade 6 40 40 80
Grade 7 30 45 75
Grade 8 20 40 60
Total 90 125
a. Julie states, “There is no connection between hours spent on
school work at home and grade level, since in all grades about
40 students spend 3 hours a week or more.” Do you agree
with Julie? Why or why not?
b. Based on these results, do you think there is a connection
between grade level and hours spent on school work at home?
Explain your answer.
Explain what it means for two events to be independent. Give an

example different from the ones in this section to show what you
mean.

C
Reasoning from Samples
Fish Farmer
A fish farmer raises a new species of fish he
calls GE. He claims that these fish are twice
as long as his original fish. One year after
releasing a bunch of original fish and a
smaller amount of the GE fish into a pond,
students were allowed to catch some fish to
check his claim. You are going to simulate
this situation.
Your teacher has a set of data cards. Each card represents a fish
from the pond.
The cards with the word original on them represent the original fish;
the cards with GE on them represent the GE fish. On each data card,
you see the length of a fish.
Every student in your class “catches” five “fish” from the “pond.”
1. a. Explain how catching the “fish” in the activity is taking

random samples.
b. Record the lengths of the 30 fish that were caught by you and
five other students from your class, keeping track of whether
the lengths belong to the original fish or the GE fish.
c. On Student Activity Sheet 2, make two different plots of the
lengths: one for the original fish and one for the GE fish.
Reasoning from Samples C
2. a. Write at least two observations about the lengths of the two

types of fish based on the plots you made with your group.
One observation should be about the mean length of the fish.
b. Compare your observations with the observations of another
group. What do you notice?
The fish farmer claimed that GE fish grew twice the size of the
original fish.
3. Based on your data about the length of fish in the plots, do you
agree or disagree with the fish farmer’s claim about the length of
the GE fish? Support your answer.
Add all the data points from every student in your class to the plots.
4. Now would you change your answer to problem 3?
5. What claim could you make about the lengths of the GE fish
compared to the original fish based on the graphs of the whole
class data? How would you justify your claim?
The fish farmer only wants to sell fish that are 17 centimeters (cm)
or longer.
6. a. Based on the results of the simulation activity from your class,
estimate the chance that a randomly caught GE fish is 17 cm
or longer.
b. Estimate the chance that a randomly caught original fish is
17 cm or longer.
c. Estimate the chance that a randomly caught fish is 17 cm or
longer. How did you arrive at your estimate?
Section C: Reasoning from Samples 25

C Reasoning from Samples
The fish farmer caught 343 fish from the pond and recorded the
lengths. He graphed the lengths and made these histograms. The
graphs are also on Student Activity Sheet 3.
Length of GE Fish
80
75
70
65
60
Number of Fish
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Length (in cm)
Length of Original Fish
80
75
70
65
60
Number of Fish
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Length (in cm)
7. a. If you caught an original fish at random, what length (roughly)

is most likely? Use the data in the histograms and give reasons
for your answer.
b. If you caught a GE fish, what length would be most likely?
Remember: The fish farmer only wants to sell fish that are 17 cm or
longer.
8. a. Based on the information in these graphs, estimate the chance

that a randomly caught original fish will be 17 cm or longer.
b. Estimate the chance that a randomly caught GE fish will be
17 cm or longer.
c. Estimate the chance of randomly catching a fish that is 17 cm
or longer.
9. a. Compare your answers to problems 6 and 8. Are they similar?

If they are very different, what might explain the difference?
b. Why is the answer to 8c closer to the answer to 8a than to the
answer for 8b?
You can use a two-way table to organize the lengths of the fish that
were caught.
Up to 17 cm 17 cm or Longer Total
Original
GE
Total 343
10. a. Copy the two-way table into your notebook and fill in the
correct numbers using the data from the histograms for the
total of 343 fish. You already have a few of those numbers.
b. What is the chance the fish farmer will catch a GE fish?
c. Reflect How can you calculate in an easy way the chance that
he will catch an original fish?
d. What is the chance that he catches an original fish that is
17 cm or longer?
e. Which type of fish do you advise the fish farmer to raise? Be
sure to give good reasons for your advice.

Backpack Weight
Too much weight in backpacks can cause shoulder pain or lower-back
pain. Doctors say that you should not carry more than 15% of your
own weight.
11. a. Randy weighs 40 kilograms. What weight can he carry based
on the doctors’ rule?
b. Choose two other weights for students and calculate the
maximum backpack weight for these weights.
Scientists decided to check the amount of weight students at an

elementary school carry in their backpacks.
The scientists made a number line plot of the weights carried by
a sample of students from grades 1 and 3.
Backpack Weights
Number of Students
6 x x
5 x x
4 x x x
3 x x x x x x x
2 x x x x x x x x x
1 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
0 5 10 15 20 25
Percentage of Student Weight
12. a. What do you think they concluded from this data set?
b. Reflect Based on the data from this sample, would it be sensible

to conclude that most students at the elementary school do
not carry too much weight in their backpacks? Give reasons to
support your answer.
The scientists wondered whether older students carried more weight

in their backpacks. They decided to collect data on students in some
of the upper grades as well.
Here are all their data from the sample of students in grades 1, 3, 5,
and 7.
The red markers represent the medians of the group from each grade.
Backpacks
Seventh
xxx x
xx x x xxxxxx xx x x x
Fifth
xx x x xx x
Grade
x x xxxxxxxxxxxx x x x
x
Third x
x xx xx
xxxxxxxxxx xxx
x
First xx
x xxxx
xxxxxxx xx
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Percentage of Student Weight
13. a. How would you characterize the differences in medians

between grades 1, 3, 5, and 7?
b. What does the median of a group tell you?
c. How does the spread of the percents compare for the four
grades? What does this mean about the weight students in
each sample carried in their backpacks?
d. What might you conclude about the amount of weight
students carry in their backpacks? Support your ideas
with arguments.

Small samples from the same population can be very different. Because
small samples can have so much variability, it is important that a sample
is large enough to get a sense of the distribution in the population.
It is also important that the sample is randomly chosen.
Based on data, you can estimate chances of particular events.
• For example, what is the chance of randomly catching a fish
that is 17 cm or longer? What is the chance that it is smaller than
17 cm?
• If the chance that a randomly caught fish is 17 cm or longer is
23%, then the chance of catching a fish with length up to 17 cm
is 1 0.23 0.77, or in percentages: 100% 23% 77%. We
say that these chances complement each other.
If you draw a conclusion from a sample, you have to be careful about
how the sample was taken and from what population.
• For example, if you just study grades 1 and 3 students and their
backpacks and find that their backpacks are not too heavy, you
cannot make any conclusions about the backpack weights for
students in general.
The police have set up a sign that shows

drivers how fast they are driving.
Students at the Bora Middle School are
still worried about speeding cars near
the school. Using the speed sign, they
decide to write down how fast cars go
during the hour before school.
These are the data values one student collected (in miles per hour):
24 28 27 26 31
And those of another student: 26 17 22 27 25
And of a third student: 25 27 28 32 32
1. Comment on the difference in the three sets of data they collected.
Here is the complete data set of speeds the students collected

(in miles per hour).
Speed (mi/hr)
24 32 29 29 28 17 26
28 28 28 29 24 22 28
27 25 25 29 31 27 32
26 30 23 22 27 24 32
31 30 32 30 26 25 27
18 29 21 21 32 28 24
24 22 19 27 28 32 26
26 30 30 33 25 26 27
25 36 23 25 26 27 19
2. Make a plot of these values. Then use the plot and any statistics
you would like to calculate to write a paragraph for the school
officials describing the speed of the traffic on the road before
school.
3. List some advantages and disadvantages of large samples.
Does using a graph of the data help you understand how to estimate
the chance of an event? Explain why or why not.

D
Expectations
Carpooling
On one toll road in the city, each
motorist pays a toll of $2.50.
One day, the Department of
Transportation counted 1,400
cars that used the toll road
between 8:00 A.M. and 9:00 A.M.
1. During this time period,
how much money was
collected?
The Department of Transportation wants people to carpool in order to

reduce traffic on the toll road. The Department is considering creating
a “carpool only” lane for cars with three or more people. The toll for
cars in the carpool lane would be reduced to $1.00. At the same time,
the toll for cars in the regular lanes would be raised to $4.00.
The Department of Transportation takes a survey and estimates that
when the regulation goes into effect, 20% of the cars will use the
carpool lane.
2. If you see 100 cars enter the toll road, how many would you
expect to use the carpool lane?
From the survey, the department also believes

that on a typical morning between 8:00 A.M.
Low Toll
20% and 9:00 A.M., the number of cars using the toll
road will decrease from 1,400 to 1,000 due to
the carpooling efforts.
1,000 Cars
3. Copy and complete the chance tree that
displays the expected traffic after the
High Toll change.
Expectations D
4. a. How much money does the Department of Transportation

expect to collect between 8:00 A.M. and 9:00 A.M.?
b. What will be the average toll charge per car during this hour?
The department also wants to know how many people use the toll
road. To answer this question, some assumptions were made: A car
that uses the carpool lane has three occupants, and a car in one of the
regular lanes has only one occupant.
5. Using those assumptions, how many people will travel on the toll
road from 8:00 A.M. to 9:00 A.M. on a typical morning?
The Department of Transportation is trying to decide whether to carry

out the carpooling plan. It considers the change in the amount of toll
money collected, the change in the number of cars on the road, and
several other factors.
6. Do you think the department should carry out the carpooling plan?
Justify your answer.
In solving the carpool problem, you used a process that can be

represented as follows:
200 $1.00 $200

20% Cars for each car —%
——
1,000
Cars
800 $4.00 $3,200

80% —%
Cars for each car
——
$3,400 ——
The diagram on the right is a general version of the one on the left.
7. Explain the process shown in the diagrams.
Section D: Expectations 33
D Expectations
The amount $3,400 represents what you expect to happen; in this

case, it is the amount of money you expect to collect. Mathematicians
call this an expected value. Sometimes it is useful to calculate the
expected value as a rate. In this example, the rate would be the
expected toll charge per car.
Kathryn works for the Department of Transportation. She has looked
at a different survey and thinks that 30% of the cars will use the
carpool lane.
8. a. Using Kathryn’s results, make a tree diagram representing the
toll money collected for 1,000 cars.
b. How much money does Kathryn expect the department to
collect between 8:00 A.M. and 9:00 A.M.?
c. Under Kathryn’s plan, what is the expected value, that is, the
average amount that a car on the toll road would pay?
d. Reflect Who would be interested in this value and why?
Advertising
Ms. Lindsay is about to open a new store for teens. To reach her
potential customers, she decides to advertise in the local paper. There
are about 15,000 teens who read the paper. This is her “target group.”
Ms. Lindsay knows that not every teenage reader will read her
advertisement. She also realizes that not every reader of the
advertisement will become a customer. She estimates that 40%
of the readers of the paper will read the ad. Also, she expects only
10% of those who read the ad to become customers.
Expectations D
9. a. Copy the diagram and complete

15,000 Teen Readers
it to show the percent of teens in
% %
each category.
b. What is the chance that a teen
? ?
reader will become a customer?
Read the Ad Don’t Read
the Ad
% %
? ?
Become Don’t Become
Customers Customers
Another way to get more customers is to run the ad on two

consecutive days. The chance that a teen reader will see an ad on
the first day is 40%, and the chance that a teen reader will see an
ad on the second day is also 40%. In this situation, the chance tree
looks like this.
15,000
Teen Readers
? ?
Read Ad 1 Don’t
Read Ad 1
? ? ? ?
Read Ad 2 B C D
10. a. Copy the chance tree into your notebook and fill in the chance
for each of these events.
b. What are the meanings of boxes B, C, and D?
c. After two days of advertising, how many members of the
target group can be expected to have read the ad?
d. What is the chance that a member of the target group will
become a customer?
11. Reflect What other things would you need to know in order to
advise Ms. Lindsay about whether to run the ad twice?
D Expectations
Expected Life of a Mayfly

For a science project, a group of students hatched 1,000 mayflies
and carefully observed them. After six hours, all of the mayflies
were alive, but then 150 died in the next hour.
Hours 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Number Still Alive 1,000 850 600 250 100 20 0
12. Based on the data in the table, write two statements about
the life span of mayflies.
13 a. Based on these data, what is the chance that a mayfly

lives 8 hours or more?
b. Use the students’ data to determine the expected life
span of a randomly chosen mayfly. Explain how you
found your answer.
Think about how long people live.

14. a. Reflect Why would an expected value be useful?
b. How could sampling affect the expected value?
Free Throws
Mark is on a basketball team. He is a very
good free-throw shooter with an average
of 70%. This means that on average he will
make 70% of the free throws he takes. You
can also say that his chance of making a
free throw is 70%.
15. If Mark takes 50 free throws, how
many of these do you expect he
will miss?
Expectations D
Basketball games have different free-throw shooting situations. In a

one-and-one situation, a player can take the second free throw shot
only if the player made the first one. In the two-point free-throw
situation, the player can take two free throws regardless of whether
the first shot is made.
Mark is often in the two-point free throw situation. This means that
he can take two shots. Suppose during a series of games, he will be
in 100 two-point free-throw situations.
16. a. Copy the chance tree for Mark in the two-point free-throw
situation and complete it.
100 two-point
free throws
70% 30%
First shot
1st shot made 1st shot missed
70% 30% 70% 30%
Second
2nd shot made 2nd shot missed 2nd shot made 2nd shot missed shot
b. In how many of the 100 times Mark takes two-point free

throws do you expect he will score one point?
c. What is the chance that Mark will score two points in a
two-point free-throw situation?
17. a. Use the chance tree to calculate how many points Mark
is expected to score in 100 two-point free-throw situations.
b. What is his expected score per two-point free-throw situation?
The other free throw situation is the one-and-one situation. A player

can try one free throw. If the player makes this shot, the player gets to
try a second one. If the player misses the first shot, no second one is
allowed. In this situation, Mark still has a 70% free throw average.
18. a. Make a chance tree for Mark in a one-and-one free-throw
situation. Suppose again that he was going to shoot 100
one-and-one free throws.
b. What is the average score you expect Mark to make in a
one-and-one free-throw situation? Show how you found
your answer.
D Expectations
In this section, you investigated expected values.

To find the expected value of an event, you need to know the chance
associated with the possible outcomes.
A chance tree shows the chance for each outcome. Note that chance
can be expressed as a percent or as a fraction.
100 two-point
free throws
70% 30%
First shot
70% 30% 70% 30%
Second
2nd shot made 2nd shot missed 2nd shot made 2nd shot missed shot
You can use a chance tree to find expected values.
On a toll road around the city, 25% of the cars are expected to use the
carpool lane. The toll is $3.00 for a car in the regular lanes and $1 per car in
the carpool lane.
1. a. Make a chance tree for this situation. Use any number of cars you
like.
b. How much money would be collected in the situation you made for
part a?
c. What is the average toll charge per car on this toll road?
d. If you start your chance tree in part a with a different number of
cars, would your answer for part c change? Explain your thinking.
2. Brenda is a basketball player. She is
an 80% free-throw shooter.
a. Make a chance tree to show how
Brenda is expected to score in
100 two-point free-throw situations.
b. What is the chance Brenda will
score two points in a two-point
free-throw situation?
3. The table contains data on how long customers have to wait in

line for the bank teller. These data were collected from a sample
of 100 customers.
Waiting Time (in minutes) 0 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 10
Number of Customers 24 16 9 7 6 8 8 11 9 2
a. Based on the data, what is the chance a customer will have to

wait in line?
b. What is the chance that a customer must wait at least 6 minutes?
c. Use the data to calculate the expected waiting time per
customer.
d. Is knowing the “expected waiting time per customer” useful?
Why or why not?
Write an explanation of expected value for someone in your family.

Use examples to help the person understand what it is and how it
might be used.
E
Combining Situations
Free Meal
The eighth graders at Takadona Middle School are organizing a Fun
Night for all students in grades 7 and 8. There will be games, movies,
and food for the students to enjoy. Each student who comes to Fun
Night will receive one red coupon and one green coupon. Some of
the red coupons will have a star, which can be turned in for a free hot
dog. Similarly, some of the green coupons will have a star, which is
good for a free drink. If a coupon does not have a star, it is good for a
discount on a food or drink purchase.
The organizers want to give away enough coupons with stars on

them so that the chance that a student will get a free hot dog is 16 ,
and the chance a student will get a free drink is 12 .
1. Choose a number of coupons you would make. How many would
be red, green, with star, and without star to make these chances
happen?
Before the coupons are made, the mathematics teacher asks the class
to find the chance that a student will get both a free hot dog and a
free drink.
2. What do you think the chance of getting both will be?
Combining Situations E
It is possible to do a simulation to estimate the chance that a student

gets both a free hot dog and a free drink. Instead of actually making
coupons and handing them out, the class decides to use two different
colored number cubes: a red one and a green one.
Each roll of the number cubes generates a pair of numbers. The
outcome of the red number cube is for the red coupons; the outcome
of the green one is for the green coupons.
3. Describe how the outcomes of the number cubes can represent
the stars for a free meal and a free drink.
You are going to generate 100 pairs of numbers with the two number
cubes to simulate 100 students arriving at Fun Night.
4. Design a chart that will make it easy to record the results. The
chart should show clearly what each student gets: a free hot dog,
a free drink, both, or none.
Use the two different colored number cubes and the chart you
designed in problem 4.
Try a few rolls with the number cubes to make sure that your
chart works.
Generate 100 pairs of numbers with the number cubes and
record the results in your chart. Every possible pair of outcomes
on the number cubes should fall into one of the possibilities on
your chart.
5. Use your simulation results to estimate:

a. the chance that a student gets a free hot dog;
b. the chance that a student gets a free drink; and
c. the chance that a student gets a free hot dog and a free drink.
6. How close was your answer to problem 2 to the results of the

simulation?
Section E: Combining Situations 41

E Combining Situations
Dianne complains that the

120 Students simulation takes too long. She
suggests using a chance tree
1 5 like the one shown to repre-
6 6
sent the problem.
20 100
Free Hot Dog No Free Hot Dog
Suppose 120 students attend Fun Night. Then 20 students will get
free hot dogs, and 100 will not get free hot dogs.
7. Explain how you would find the numbers 20 and 100.
Each student who gets a free hot dog has a chance of 12 to get a free
drink as well.
120
Students
1 5
6 6
20 100
1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2
Free Drink No Free Drink Free Drink No Free Drink
8. a. Copy and complete the chance tree.

b. How many students receive a “free meal” consisting of both a
free hot dog and a free drink?
c. From your chance tree, what is the chance of receiving a free
meal?
d. Reflect How does the chance that you found in part c compare
to the chance you found in problem 2 and the one that you
found using the simulation in problem 5?
e. Reflect If you started the chance tree about Fun Night with 300
students instead of 120, would your answers for c change? Why
or why not?
Kiesha wanted to use another model to find the chance. She thought
an area model might work. This is the series of drawings Kiesha made
for the situation on Fun Night.
i. ii. iii.
1 5 1 5
12 6 6 6 6
1
2
10
1
2
9. a. How many students does each diagram represent? Why do

you think this number is chosen?
b. What do grids ii and iii show in terms of the tickets for
Fun Night?
c. Copy grid iii into your notebook and shade the portion of the
diagram that represents the students who get a free meal.
d. How do the diagrams help you find the fractional part of the
students who get a free meal?
e. How does this help you find the chance of a free meal (hotdog
and drink)?
The organizers of Fun Night are worried about cost. They have decided
to change the number of tickets with stars so that the chance of getting
a free hot dog will be 1 1.
8 and the chance of a free drink will be
3
10. a. Draw an area model to represent this situation. Think about a
good number of small squares to use!
b. Use your area model to find the chance of getting both a free
hot dog and free drink in this new situation.

One of the events for Fun Night is a student volleyball tournament.

The Fun Night Committee plans to give the players on the winning
team shirts donated by the Takadona Sports Apparel Mart.
There will be both tank tops and

T-shirts.
Two-thirds ( 2 ) of all the shirts
3
will be T-shirts.
Logos will be applied randomly
to 1
4 of all shirts.
After the tournament, the winning captain

can pull one shirt out of the box.
11. What is the chance that the shirt will
be a T-shirt with a logo? Show the
method you used to find your answer.
One way to find the chance of an event is to list all the possible
results and count them, but this is often very time-consuming. Here
is a rule that seems to work: The chance for a combination of two
events to occur is the chance of the first event times the chance of
the second event. We can call this a multiplication rule for chance.
12. a. Does the rule work for problems 10 and 11?
b. Reflect How does this rule show up in the chance tree and the
area model?
Suppose the Takadona Sports Apparel Mart has discovered that the
logos do not fit very well on the tank tops. They realize that they can
only put logos on T-shirts. Two thirds of the shirts will still be T-shirts,
and 14– of all of the shirts will still have logos
13. a. Choose a total number of shirts. Make a diagram to show how
many of these are tank tops, how many are T-shirts, and how
many are T-shirts with logos.
b. If you select one of these shirts at random, what is the chance
that it will be a T-shirt with a logo?
c. Does this problem follow the multiplication rule? What makes
this situation different from the situation in problem 11?
Overall, if there is no connection between getting one outcome and

getting the other, then you can use the multiplication rule to find the
chance that both events will happen. Otherwise, you have to use
some other method to find the chance, like you did in problem 13.
Delayed Luggage
Vernon is planning a trip over winter break. He
is excited about traveling by plane, but he has
heard stories about people’s luggage being
delayed. He is wondering what the chances
are that he will fly to his vacation spot without
having his luggage delayed. Through a little
research, he found that about 1 out of every
200 pieces of luggage is delayed per flight.
14. What is the chance that a piece of luggage
will arrive on time on a one-way trip?

Vernon wants to find the chance that his

1,000 luggage will make it without any delay on a
Pieces of Luggage trip that has one layover. (During a layover,
people and luggage often change planes.)
He decides to use a tree diagram. He begins
by thinking about 1,000 pieces of luggage.
995 5 Vernon concludes that, in all, about 990
On Time Delayed pieces of luggage will make it without any
delay on a trip that has one layover.
15. Explain the numbers in the diagram.
Add chances to the branches.
990.025 4.975
On Time Delayed
Richard, one of Vernon’s friends, questions his calculations. He points

out that on the first flight, five pieces of luggage out of a 1,000 will be
delayed. And on the second flight, five pieces out of 1,000 should
also be delayed. This means that exactly ten pieces are delayed, so
990 pieces of luggage will arrive on time.
While Vernon’s and Richard’s answers are close, their calculations are
different.
16. Which method of calculation, Vernon’s or Richard’s, do you think
is correct?
17. a. To explore the two different methods, use both Vernon’s

and Richard’s methods to calculate the number of pieces of
luggage that are not delayed on a trip with one layover if 1 out
of every 5 pieces is delayed on every flight. Start your diagram
with 1,000 pieces of luggage.
b. Based on your results, which method do you think is correct?
18. Can you use the multiplication rule to solve Vernon’s problem?
Why or why not?
Math History
Christiaan Huygens
Christiaan Huygens (1629–1695) was a Dutch
scientist who made a major contribution to several
fields of science. He studied law and mathematics
at the University of Leiden. After writing several
math books, Huygens worked on lens grinding and
telescope construction. He found a better way of
grinding and polishing lenses. Using one of his own
lenses, Huygens detected the first moon of Saturn.
Since his work in astronomy required accurate time-
keeping, Huygens worked on making a clock. In 1656
he patented the first pendulum clock. This clock
greatly increased the accuracy of time measurement.
In 1655 Huygens visited Paris and learned about the
work on probability carried out in correspondence
between two other mathematicians, Pascal (1623–1662)
and Fermat (1601–1665).
On his return to Holland in 1656, Huygens wrote a book
on the calculations of chances. It was a small book of
about 15 pages and the first printed work on the
subject in 1655. It was translated into English in 1692.
The book, Of The Laws of Chance or A Method of
Calculation of the Hazards of Game..., contains theory
on probability calculations and 14 problems with
solutions and five problems to be solved by the
reader. Some of the chance problems that you have
seen in this unit are in this book.

In this section, you explored two-event probability problems.

Sometimes you can calculate the chance of a combined event
from the chances of the underlying events.
To find the chances for two combined events you can use several
methods:
• a chance tree 1,200
Students
1 5
6 6
200 1,000
1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2
• an area model 1 5
6 6
1
2
1
2
• the multiplication rule

For example: The chance of getting a T-shirt is 2 , and the chance
3
of getting a logo is 1
4 , so the chance of a T-shirt with a logo is
1 2 2 1
4
or
3 , which is 12 6.
Note that not all three methods can be used in all situations.
If the two events are independent and do not affect each other, such
as putting logos on all of the shirts and being a T-shirt or a tank top,
then the chances of each event can be multiplied to find the chance
that both events will occur.
If the two events are dependent, such as putting logos only on
T-shirts, then you cannot multiply the two chances but must find
another way to figure the chance that both events will occur.
The diagram illustrates all possible coupon combinations at Fun Night.
Free Hot Dog Free Hot Dog No Free Hot Dog No Free Hot Dog
and and and and
No
Free Meal Free Food Free Beverage
Free Refreshments
1. a. Using the original probabilities of 1 1

6 for a free hot dog and
2
for a free drink, find the chance of getting something free.
b. There are many ways to solve part a. Think of as many
different ways as possible to solve this problem.
2. Make up a problem in which you can multiply the chances of

two events happening and another problem in which you cannot.
Explain the difference between the two problems.
3. Will and Robin are practicing free throws. Will has a 50%
free-throw average, and Robin has a 70% average. They each
take one shot.
Use an area model to find the chance that both Will and Robin
will make their shots.
Describe the advantages and disadvantages of using an area model to

find the chance of two events. Of using a chance tree.

Additional Practice
Section A Drawing Conclusions from Samples

1. Describe at least three situations involving uncertainty in which it
is important to estimate the likelihood of an event’s occurrence.
2. Think back to the questions on television ratings in this section.

Do you think that the ratings computed are accurate enough to
be used to decide how much to charge for an advertisement?
Explain why or why not.
Suppose that a particular television station wants to know whether to

add another half-hour of news to its evening broadcast. During the
evening news for several nights, the announcers ask people to call a
toll-free number to say whether or not they want an extra half-hour of
news. The result of the poll was that a large majority voted in favor of
extending the evening news.
3. a. If you were in favor of the expansion, what argument would
you make?
b. If you were against the expansion, what argument would
you make?
In the small town of Arens (population 2,000), a journalist from the

local newspaper went to the park and surveyed 100 people about
building a recreation center on one side of town. Twenty-five people
said they would like the center. The next day the journalist wrote an
article about this issue with the headline:
A Large Majority of the People in Arens Do NOT Want a
Recreation Center.”
4. a. Is this headline a fair statement? Explain your answer.
A television reporter wanted to conduct her own survey. She

called a sample of 20 people, whose names she randomly
selected from the Arens telephone directory. Sixty percent said
they were in favor of the recreation center.
b. Is it reasonable to say that 60% of all the people in Arens are
in favor of the recreation center? Explain why or why not.
c. Describe how you would try to find out how many of the
people in Arens want a recreation center. Explain why you
think your method works.
Section B May be There is a Connection
Benjamin has a drawer in which he keeps his pens and pencils. They
come in different colors. He counts the pens and pencils and finds
that there are 40 pencils, 12 of which are black, 8 are red, and the rest
are blue. There are 20 pens. Eight pens are black, 2 are red, and the
rest are blue.
1. Organize the information in a table.
2. a. If Benjamin takes one item out of his drawer at random, what

is the chance that it is a pencil?
b. If Benjamin takes one item out of his drawer at random, what
is the chance that it is red? Show how you found your answer.
c. If Benjamin chose a pencil in part b, is your answer the same?
Section C Reasoning from Samples
Here is a histogram of the speed of 63 cars at a road close to the Bora

Middle School.
1. a. Estimate the chance that a car randomly chosen from this
sample is driving faster than 30 mi/h.
b. Based on your answer to a, how can you easily calculate the
chance that a car is driving 30 mi/h or slower?
The Speed of Cars

20
18
16
Number of Cars
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38
Speed (in mi/h)
Additional Practice
2. The table contains the results of a survey on the number of hours

a day that students in middle school play video games. Jorge
wants to know the chance that a student randomly chosen from
this group that was surveyed plays video games for two or more
hours a day.
Girls
Hours per Day 1 1.5 2 0 0 1 1.5 3 3.5 1.5 1 2 1 2.5 1 1.5 1 0
Boys
Hours per Day 1 1 2 2 2.5 1.5 3 3 4 3.5 4 4.5 4 6 3.5 3 0 0 4 3.5
a. Organize the data in a two-way table like the one below and
use the table to answer Jorge’s question.
Played Less Than Played 2 or More

Total
2 Hours Per Day Hours Per Day
Boys
Girls
Total
b. If a middle school student is chosen at random from this

group, what is the chance that it is a girl who plays less than
two hours of video games per day?
c. If you decide to choose a boy at random from the group,
what is the chance he will play less than 2 hours of video
games per day?
d. Jorge announced that the survey showed the chance that a
seventh grader played two or more than two hours a day was
about 53%. What do you think of his statement?
Additional Practice
One class did a survey and asked students what job they would like.
Students Future Jobs
Teacher X X X X X X X
Scientist X X
Job Pilot X X X X
Medical X X X X X X
Engineer X X X X X X
0 5
Count
3. Can they conclude that being a teacher is the favorite choice for a
career among students at their school?
A new dairy bar has opened on Baker Street. It serves only low-fat
milk and yogurt drinks. The milk drinks cost $1.00, and the yogurt
drinks cost $3.00. The owner does not yet know if his business will be
successful. On his first day, 100 people place orders at the bar, 80% of
whom order low-fat milk.
1. How much money did the dairy bar make on the first day of
business? Draw a tree diagram to help you answer the problem.
The owner thinks that he may have overpriced the yogurt drink
because most people are buying milk drinks. The second week, he
reduces the price of his yogurt drinks to $2.50, but he does not want
to lose money, so he raises the price of milk drinks to $1.50. He now
expects to sell only 70% milk drinks and the rest yogurt drinks.
2. a. How much money does the owner expect to make if 100
people come to the dairy bar? Use a tree diagram to help you
answer the problem.
b. Has he lost income compared to his opening day?
Additional Practice
The owner changes the prices so that the milk and yogurt drinks each
cost $2.00. He now expects to sell 40% yogurt drinks.
3. How much money does he expect to make with 100 customers?
How does this compare to his previous income?
On the third week, the shop begins selling bagels for $1.00. It turns
out that of the customers who buy milk drinks, 60% also buy a bagel.
For customers who buy yogurt drinks, only 50% also buy a bagel.
4. How much money does the owner expect to make now if he has
100 customers?
Monica buys a ticket for the movies. Of the 240 seats in the theater,
80 are in the balcony.
Each seat in the theater has a number. The number of odd seats is the
same as the number of even seats.
1. What is the chance that Monica will sit in the balcony?
2. a. What is the chance that Monica will sit in a seat with an even
number that is not in the balcony?
b. Explain whether or not you can use the multiplication rule for
chance to answer a.
Section A Drawing Conclusions From Samples
1. 150 students have one or more pets.
One solution is using the 10% strategy.
10% of 250 25
60% of 250 is 6 25 150
2. a. The expected number of students is 12. One possible

explanation: If the sample of 20 students is typical for the
whole school, then you might expect 60% of 20 students,
which is 12, to have one or more pets.
b. Different responses are possible: Sixteen out of 20 is not
surprising since it seems to be pretty close to the expected
number of 12. The four additional students having one or
more pets may be due to chance.
Sixteen out of 20 is surprising since this is 80% of the sample,

which seems a lot bigger than the 60% that was expected. But
you should remember that a sample of size 20 is fairly small.
Just a few people different from what you would expect will
change the percent quite a lot, so it is really hard to say that it
is not just chance.
c. Different responses are possible: Students from lower grades
may be more likely to have pets. Students who take biology
classes may be more likely to have pets. Perhaps Claire asked
only her friends who like pets.
3. a. The expected number is 120. You can use different strategies,

for example, a ratio table.
10 2 3
Percentage 100% 10% 20% 60%

Number of
200 20 40 120
Students
10 2 3

Answers to Check Your Work
b. Yes. You might have different explanations.

1st example: I would expect that a large sample of 200 people
would be more typical of the population. The number of
students who have pets should be close to the expected
number (120).
2nd example: Only 150 students in the whole school have
pets (see the answer to problem 1), so even if Claire asked
200 different students in the school, she could not have found
160 who had pets.
4. Different answers are possible. You may use the lists of students
from each grade level and randomly select a number of students
from each grade. This number must not be too small. During
lunch break, you might also ask every fifth student who leaves
the lunch room. You can think of other methods yourself! Be sure
your sample is taken at random—that means every student in
your school must have the same chance of being in the sample.
Section B Making Connections

1. a.
No Change in Lower
Blood Pressure Blood Pressure Total
Using Garlic 27 73 100
No Garlic 60 40 100
Total 87 113 200
b. The chance that a randomly chosen person in the study has a

lower blood pressure is 113 out of 200, which is 113
200 0.565 or
—–
about 57%.
c. The chance would be 73 out of 100 or 73%. You only look at
the 73 people of the 100 who used garlic.
d. The percentage of people with a lower blood pressure is larger
in the group that uses garlic; 73% of that group have a lower
blood pressure, while in the whole group about 57% have a
lower blood pressure, and in the group that uses no garlic only
40% have a lower blood pressure. So there seems to be a
connection. However, you cannot tell whether the garlic
caused the lower blood pressure. And of course the sample
must be chosen carefully!
2. You can use different numbers in the table. One example is

shown. If no connection exists, the percentage of people with
lower blood pressure would probably be about the same in both
the group that used garlic and the group that didn’t use garlic.
No Change in Lower
Blood Pressure Blood Pressure Total
Using Garlic 49 51 100
No Garlic 52 48 100
Total 101 99 200
3. a. Possible answer: The people in the traffic department might

want to know because of safety reasons; eye doctors might be
interested and try to prescribe glasses that will help; insurance
companies might be interested for assigning insurance rates.
b.
No Problem Driving Problems Driving
Total
in the Dark in the Dark
Men 330 (500 170) 170 (0.34 500) 500
Women 210 (500 290) 290 (0.58 500) 500
Total 540 (330 210) 460 (170 290) 1,000
First you fill in the column with the totals. Then you use the per-
centages to fill in the column for “problems driving in the dark.”
With the numbers from the last two columns, you can find the
numbers in the first column for men and women. The totals can
be found by adding up the numbers for men and women.

c. A chance tree:
1,000 People
50% 50%
500 Men 500 Women
66% 34% 42% 58%
330 No Problems 170 Problems 210 No Problems 290 Problems

Driving in Dark Driving in Dark Driving in Dark Driving in Dark
d. The chance that a randomly chosen person has problems

driving in the dark is 460 out of 1,000, which is 46%. Be sure to
tell which method you used to find your answer and give a
reason like maybe the table is easier to read. You might not
like the chance tree because all of the chances are figured out
on the tree. Note that the separate chances for men and
women are not the overall chances, but instead are chances
for both genders and problems driving in the dark.
4. a. You might agree with Julie, but she is wrong. She is looking
only at the numbers in the middle column. She should also
take into account how many students are in each grade level
and then compare the percentages. In grade 6 half (50%) of the
students spend 3 hours a week or more and in grade 8, 40 out
of 60 or 23 of the students spend 3 hours or more on homework.
b. Yes, there seems to be a connection. The higher the grade level,
the more likely a student is to spend 3 hours or more per week
on homework, although the percents are pretty close for
grades 7 and 8.
Grade 6: 40 out of 80 is 50%.
Section C Reasoning from Samples

1. The samples are very small and give very different impressions
of how fast the cars are going. In the first and third samples, four
out of five cars drive faster than 25 mi/h, but in the second
sample, only two do so. The second sample does not give much
reason to worry about speeding cars, but the other two samples
are more alarming.
One similarity is that the median in all three is around 27 mi/h.
2. Your paragraph can have different plots and descriptions. You can
make a histogram, a number line plot or a box plot, or any other
graph that you think will work. The examples below show a
number line plot and a histogram. The red marker represents the
median.
Speed of Cars on Road before School in the Morning
X X X
X X X X X
5 X X X X X X X X
Count
X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
0
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36
Speed (in mi/h)
Speed of Cars on Road before School in the Morning
5
Count
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36
Speed (in mi/h)

Be sure that you use the numbers to tell a story about speeding.
Here are some examples.
I think that speeding is a problem. The number line plot of a sample
of the speeds of 63 cars as they go past the school in the morning
shows that over half of the cars are going as fast or faster than 27 mi/h,
which is speeding. Most of the speeds were right around the speed
limit between 24 and 28 mi/h, but about two thirds of them were
going faster than the 25 mi/h speed limit. Four cars were going less
than 20 mi/h., but one was 11 mi/h over the limit.
I do not think speeding is a problem. Half of the cars were going just a
little bit over the 25 mi/h speed limit. You can tell from the plot that
just a few cars were going faster than 30 mi/h, and only one car was
really speeding at 36 mi/h. Most of the rest, about 75% of them, were
within 5 miles of the speed limit, which shows that they were really
not going too fast.
3. An advantage of large samples, provided they are randomly

selected, is that you can get a fairly good estimate of the center
and spread of the distribution.
A disadvantage of large samples is that they can be expensive and
time-consuming to conduct. You might think of other advantages
and disadvantages.
1. a The chance tree you made for this situation may look like this.
High toll
75% 750 cars
1000 cars
Low toll 250 cars

25%
Since you could choose a number of cars at the start, you may
have chosen another number. Your percentages should be the
same because they do not depend on the number of cars but
only on the fraction.
b. In the situation for part a, 750 $3.00 250 $1.00 $2,500,

so $2,500 in tolls is collected. If you used different numbers,
your toll will be different as well.
c. The average amount that a car on this toll road pays is

$2,500
——— $2.50 per car. If you used a different number of cars,
1000
this amount will be the same.
d. No, the answer for part c will not change if the number of cars is
different. For example, if there were 500 cars, the toll collected
would be 375 $3 125 $1 $1,250. This is $1,250
——— $2.50
500
per car. The average toll per car will always be the same
because the toll per car depends on the percentage of cars for
each option, which stays the same.
2. a See chance tree.
100
two-point free-throw
situations
80% 20%
First shot 80 20
80% 20% 80% 20%
Second shot 64 made 16 missed 32 made 4 missed
b. The chance Brenda will score two points in a two-point

free-throw situation is 64 out of 100, which is 64%.

3. a. To compute the chance a customer will have to wait in line,

the number of customers who have to wait in line longer than
0 minutes will be 100 24 or 76 customers, which is a
76% chance.
b. The chance that a customer must wait at least 6 minutes is
(8 8 11 9 2)/100, which is 38%.
c. All 100 customers together waited 16 1 2 9 3 7 4
6 6 8 7 8 8 11 9 9 10 2 372 minutes.
This is 3.72 minutes expected waiting time per customer.
d. Knowing the “expected waiting time per customer” can be
useful if you want to have a one-number indication of how
long people must wait. Bank managers are interested in
serving their customers by trying to reduce waiting time but
do not want tellers with nothing to do. It might be more useful
in combination with measures of spread that would give
an indication of how the wait time might vary for different
customers. The shortest and longest waiting time might
also be useful information.

7 . You might
1. a and b. The chance of getting something free is 12
—
answer this problem in lots of ways. You may set up a diagram
like the following.
120 Students
1 5
6 6
20 100
1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2
10 10 50 50
The number of students who will get something free is

70 .
20 50 70, so the chance of getting something free is 120
—–
A clever way to find the answer is to think that the chance of

getting something free is the complement of getting nothing
free; out of 120 people, 50 will get nothing free, so there will be
120 – 50 or 70 out of 120 people who will get something free.
You might think of other ways as well.
2. You can make up many different problems. Be sure that the

two events in the problem using the multiplication rule are
independent, that is, not connected. Share your problems
with a classmate.
Here is one example.
You could find the chance of getting two heads when you toss
two coins by multiplying the chance of getting a head on the
first toss (12) times the chance of getting a head on the second
toss (12) for a chance of 14 . The outcome of the first coin toss is
not connected to the outcome of the second.
The two events in the problem where you cannot use the
multiplication rule must be connected or overlap. For example,
a class of 30 students is half girls, and one third of the class has
blonde hair. So 15 of the class are girls and 10 in the class have
blonde hair. If you multiplied the chances of choosing a blonde
haired girl, it would be is 12 13 , or 16 or 5 out of 30. But you
cannot tell how many of the blondes are girls—all ten of the
blondes could be girls. You need some more information to
find the chance of choosing a blonde girl.
3. In the vertical direction 70% (70 out of 100) is shaded to show

Robin’s chance of scoring. Of that part the upper half is shaded to
show Will’s 50% of scoring. This means that the chance both will
score is 35 out of 100, or 35%.
Robin’s Scores
Will’s Scores

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Wisconsin Center for Education Freudenthal Institute Staff

Wisconsin Center for Education Freudenthal Institute Staff

Section A Drawing Conclusions from Samples

Section B Maybe There is a Connection

Section C Reasoning From Samples

Section E Combining Situations

Answers to Check Your Work 55

Welcome to Great Predictions!

Surveys report that teens prefer

The Mathematics in Context Development Team

How Do Television Networks Rate Their Programs?

People often complain about the number of commercials aired during

Section A: Drawing Conclusions from Samples 1

At one time, independent survey companies asked a large sample of

In a forested area near Snow Creek, an

Many insects and diseases are an important part of creating healthy

The mountain pine beetle is the most aggressive

There is a similarity between the two examples presented in questions

5. Reflect If something unusual happened in your life, how would

In a town of 400 people, 80 subscribe

A researcher wants to take a random sample of ten people from

6. a. Do you think that, in general, there is a better chance of

Section A: Drawing Conclusions from Samples 5

It can be difficult to draw a conclusion about a population from a

7. a. For each sample, decide whether you think it belongs to

Who Prefers Which Yogurt?

Who’s Going to the Zoo?

9. a. If 2,000 students live in the area, how

Section A: Drawing Conclusions from Samples 7

Who Was in the House?

11. a. Explain why the illustration represents a sample of the

Populations and Sampling

NEWS WATCH: DATA POINT;

Source: New York Times, February 17, 2005

13. a. What population was studied in the article?

Section A: Drawing Conclusions from Samples 9

Drawing conclusions from samples always involves uncertainty.

Information from a sample drawn from a population may or may not

When taking a sample, it is important to do so randomly so that every

3. a. If Claire had asked 200 students at Bora Middle School instead

4. Suppose you want to know how many students in your school

When sampling is done to rate television programs, the poll takers

Section A: Drawing Conclusions from Samples 11

The local newspaper organized an opinion poll using a sample of

West District: East District:

You might wonder whether there is a connection between where

West East Total

Total 200 100 300

b. Which group of people, those in the east district or those in the

Section B: Maybe There is a Connection 13

Population Place person lives

There are two possibilities for voting on the Milo bridge.

Now let’s suppose there is no connection between where people live

West East Total

Total 200 100 300

6. a. Assuming that the events “where a person lives” and “how