The Complete Guide to

Sports Betting

The Six Key Betting Principles that

Professional Bettors use to ensure
Profit at the SportsBook

Kevin Dolan
Copyright © 2017, Kevin Dolan
 Contents

Foreword

Part One: The Necessary Tools

1. Understanding Motivation
2. Understanding EV
3. Understanding Betting Terms

Part Two: The Six Key Principles

4. Principle One: Understanding Money Management
5. Principle Two: Understanding Power Rankings
6. Principle Three: Understanding Trends
7. Principle Four: Understanding Situations
8. Principle Five: Understanding Line Moves
9. Principle Six: Understanding Consensus Data

Part Three: Specialization

10. Understanding Premium and Free Picks
11. Understanding NFL
12. Understanding MLB
13. Understanding NBA
14. Understanding NHL
15. Understanding College Sports

Summary
 Foreword

First, if you are reading this book, congratulations! You have taken a big
step in developing your overall handicapping know-how and ability, and by
doing so, have considerably improved your chances of profiting from sports
betting over the long-term. This book is designed to show you the various
methods and applications employed by sports betting professionals to help
give you the edge you need in order to succeed in the fast-paced world of
sports betting. The tips and strategies you will learn in this book will give
you all the necessary tools to become a successful sports bettor yourself.
This will enable you, if you so choose, to make either a nice secondary
income to supplement your full-time job or, with some serious
determination and money management, develop into a full-fledged “sharp”
sports bettor and handicapper to make a professional living from betting on
sports. Whatever the case may be, this is the book to get you started.
The purpose in writing this book came about because of the lack of
good articles and publications that explain in detail exactly HOW to
become a successful sports bettor. While there are numerous noteworthy
books pertaining to betting on sports in general, most are vague in their
approach about how to get started and unclear on information on
handicapping itself. Exceptions to this are Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford
Wong, Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao, and Mathletics
by Wayne L. Winston. These books are must-reads for any prospective
sports bettor or handicapper. I would actively encourage anyone interested
in sports betting to read these three as they are full of useful betting nuggets
and contain a lot of extremely valuable information to both beginners and
pros alike.
 However, while these books are highly useful for enhancing your
overall sports betting IQ, there is still the gap on how to actually get started
in the role of becoming a successful handicapper. This is a gap I intend to
fill with this book. For obvious and understandable reasons, most
professional and highly successful sports bettors and handicappers keep
their cards close to their chest when it comes to sharing the information
they know. For instance, if you had a treasure trove of successful
information at your disposal, would you be willing to share it with whoever
was asking for it? The difference here is that despite what you will read on
most sports betting sites about “inside information” and “locks of the
month,” the vast, vast majority of information that highly successful bettors
and syndicates use is readily available to EVERYONE online. In this highly
digitalized age, the average bettor has numerous worldwide and localized
news sources at their disposal, information that when utilized correctly will
lead to extremely informed decisions on where to put your money. The
main difficulty that people face in terms of all this information is that there
is so much sports talk “noise” out there that it is hard to whittle down
exactly what information is useful and what’s not. Which set of power
rankings are the most accurate? Which trends have the most impact on
games? What is the value of missing a half point on a game spread? Which
news sources are actually useful from a point spread angle? This book will
seek to not only answer these questions, but to disseminate all this
information accurately and in a way that gives you the maximum edge
when walking to the betting window.
On a personal note, the principles laid out in this book propelled me
not only to becoming a successful sports bettor and handicapper, but also to
winning the 2015 World Series of Handicapping Championship in Las
Vegas – an extremely proud moment I might add! Therefore, utilizing these
fundamental betting principles have been proven to work, and with the right
dedication and investment of time, can successfully work for you too.
*Note: The odds given throughout this book are for the most part in
the American format; for instance -200/+175, and so on. If you are from
Europe, Australia, UK or Ireland, or from a different part of the world
altogether and feel more comfortable using decimal or fractional odds, then
please check out the betting odds converter over at sportsbookreview.com
or one of the many other ones available online. It is encouraged, however, if
you have the time and the necessary willingness to learn, that you become
versed in using American odds at some point. While it is by no means
mandatory, as all of the approaches utilized in this book can be harnessed
towards all sports and odds formats, it will no doubt make your
handicapping and betting approach that much easier going forward as most
of what we cover here is geared towards US sports.
 Part One

The Necessary Tools

 1. Understanding Motivation

Before getting into some of the more detailed stuff, let’s talk about your
motivation in picking up this book. Are you looking to simply enhance your
recreational weekend bets for a bit of extra money or turn all this newfound
knowledge into something more serious and make the jump into becoming
a full-fledged sports bettor?
First, let’s talk about the discipline involved. There is no 9 to 5 in the
world of sports betting. There is only the world of 11/10. Adapt and react.
While this may seem like a bit of a cliché and an exaggeration, you simply
must react swiftly to any line move or injury report that develops in real
time if you want to ensure you always get the best possible betting line
available. Therefore, the application to time in this industry is of the highest
importance. Games finish in the evening times in most cases, especially if
you are betting the big four of major American sports, and lines for the
following day are usually posted immediately after the final whistle, though
even sometimes before. If you aspire to be a bettor at the top of his or her
game, you will need to focus on these opening lines and be aware of any
significant early line moves and possible mistakes on the book’s part. On a
personal note, I watch the games I bet on live less than five percent of the
time. This is for reasons two-fold.
One, because it removes any emotion from the event and allows me to
focus solely on analytical data. And two, simply because of the time
constraints involved. Watching live games is time that could be better spent
preparing for any upcoming games. While sometimes watching previous
games can gain you valuable insight into exactly how the game was played
out and give you tips that might be useful moving forward, for the most part
it is of little value to watch every game you wager on. A more productive
pursuit while the actual game is taking place is to rest, or as stated, to
prepare for the next day’s betting slate. Make no mistake, this is a real job!
Second, you must have at least a passing appreciation of basic math.
While being a statistical rocket scientist is not required to become a
successful sports bettor, it is a good idea to use your own basic spreadsheets
to work out the value of both spreads and totals and to keep a good account
of your own bankroll and money management. Even if you feel this in itself
might be too much work, using an Excel spreadsheet to keep basic track of
previous and pending bets is always a good idea in the long run. It pays to
be organized. There are however numerous websites and apps now
dedicated to helping you in this regard – keeping track of the betting picks
you make and giving you statistical graphs on both your betting
performance and bankroll management. Some noteworthy ones include
Pickmonitor, Cappertek and Vegas Sports. Do your own research and find
the one best suited for you.
Third, as stated briefly in the prior paragraph, it is always a good idea
to try and be emotionally unattached from the games you bet on. This is not
always easy. If you are using this guide to simply enhance your recreational
bets, then this aspect shouldn’t be too much of an issue. If, however, you
are taking this move to sports betting more seriously, then betting with
emotion does become a legitimate factor. There have been numerous times
on a personal basis when games have appeared done and I’m ready to cash
another winning ticket, only for some referee mistake, goal line fumble, or
other unlikely scenario to send my ticket to the shredder. The move from
cash to trash can unfortunately happen in an instant!
As an example, a few years ago there was an infamous MLB game
that had totals bettors in absolute meltdown! The over/under for the game
was set at seven runs and at the end of the ninth inning the game was tied
1–1. An easy win for people holding under tickets as you might imagine as
a single run would be enough in extra innings to clinch the game and the
money. No scores happened throughout the tenth and eleventhinnings, but
at the start of the twelfth inning the game suddenly exploded into life with
three runs being scored in the top of the inning and four in the bottom to
send the game over by a couple of runs. A disaster for those holding under
tickets and a perfect gift for those lucky enough to be on the over.
 While this is an extreme example of bad luck, other lesser but no less
easy to take losses happen all the time. Whether this comes as two last-
minute goals in regulation time hockey or a garbage time three pointer with
one second left on the clock to just fall inside the spread, these instances are
all that is needed to send your potential winning ticket up in smoke. These
occurrences, especially the really bad breaks are thankfully rare, but almost
every game played will have its share of bad calls or lucky bounces that
may be enough to swing a game one way or the other.
Your handicapping ability should be enough to overcome these
eventualities in the long run, but if they do go against you in the short-term,
the only thing you can do is dust yourself off, put it down to the unfortunate
circumstance it was, and get back in the saddle for the following day. If you
do however find these events overtly affecting your mood and composure,
then it is often better to skip watching the game entirely and check the
scores after the game is finished. Seeing Detroit lose 3–2 in a box score five
hours after the game has finished is often better than seeing them cough up
three late goals while watching the game live!
Regardless of whether you choose to watch the games live or not,
having these eventualities affect your composure and bankroll management
however is the absolute worst thing you can do in terms of being a
successful sports bettor, as it can cloud your judgment for future games.
This could be displayed by overcompensating your power rankings for the
teams involved in the game in question or over-betting and unduly risking
your bankroll on the next game in order to recoup your losses. Poker
players call this situation going “on tilt” and sports bettors are no less
susceptible to this phenomenon. The temptation to double up and chase a
bet after a tough loss is strong, but this, for obvious reasons, is never a good
idea. Better to trust in your logic and analysis and know that in the long run,
you will undoubtedly create a winning formula without the need to be
reckless.
Plus lucky bounces work both ways! While being a good handicapper
dictates you’ll always be a little more unlucky than lucky – this is because
having strong numbers and good information will always mean that it will
require more luck to lose a game than to win it – you will no doubt, over the
course of your handicapping career, benefit from situations that were
deemed fortunate at the time. While obviously unwise to rely on these
situations long-term, in the short-term take advantage of the win and move
on better prepared for the next game.
 2. Understanding EV

You’re probably wondering right about now, what exactly is EV? EV

translates as Expected Value. It is actually something very common and is
experienced as an everyday occurrence for almost everybody during day-to-
day to life. However, it is a much more determining factor in a professional
bettor’s everyday life. EV, in its simplest terms, is perception, what you
perceive the situation to be in relation to what the actual event is, whether
positive or negative. It is simple everyday choice. Do I see that show or this
one? Do I choose this brand or that one? Will I go to this party or that one?
For instance, if you choose a cheaper brand of coffee, you are making an
assumption based on an idea of positive EV – this coffee looks as good as
one of the more well-known premium brands but has saved me two dollars
in the process.
If you are correct, and it does taste as good as one of the more well-
known premium brands, then you have made a positive EV decision. If it
tastes pretty foul however, and is almost undrinkable, then you have made
an overall negative EV decision as the money saved does not make up for
the overpowering bad taste of the coffee. As simple as this example sounds,
it helps highlight how much impact EV has on our everyday lives. Most
people don’t give these decisions any serious thought on a day-to-day basis,
but for sports bettors it’s a much more important factor. Making positive or
negative EV decisions on a daily basis determines whether you’re part of
the minority of sports bettors who consistently profit and are financially
successful, or whether you’re part of the vast majority who lose betting on
teams, oblivious to line moves and positive EV expectation.
 EV can be based upon many factors, such as happiness, time and in
our case, money. EV is not a broad stroke, however, and even among the
so-called “sharp betting community,” rarely does everyone agree on what
constitutes a positive EV wager. Two bettors may make their bets
established on two different sets of power rankings. EV is based on
individual perception of the teams or players in question, so two different
bettors may often see two different approaches to their EV expectation for a
game; one positive, the other negative.
For example, one bettor may see the Dallas Cowboys getting +5.5 at
home as great value; another may see the New York Giants at -5.5 on the
road as a lock of the week type scenario depending on individual
perception. It is what your numbers and your betting acumen tell you about
the game. Sharp bettors do, and more often than you may think, disagree
with one another on any given game. Rarely is there a unilateral agreement
on the “right” side to a game and it often changes considerably as the line
moves. Those same sharp guys advocating a play on Dallas +5.5 may feel
very differently if the line drops to +4 negating any value, even in some
cases flipping to a position where the opposite side now holds all the value.
However, generally speaking, no matter what your power rankings or
team stats might suggest for a game, you’ll know whether or not you’re
betting on a positive or negative EV prop. You may like the Pittsburgh
Penguins for instance to win an NHL game moneyline. But knowing you
could have got them at -125 and they’re now priced at a steeper -145,
means your bet has lost a lot of positive EV and may be almost a no-play at
its current price, no matter how much you may have liked the Penguins
pregame. Getting the best of the number in this regard is paramount to
success in the sports betting industry. For example, dropping $145 instead
of the $125 you could have gotten the number at, if the Penguins were to
lose that affects your bottom line immensely.
Most bets that are listed at books are negative EV by association of
having the juice attached, those all-important extra five or ten cents.
Considering most posted lines are efficient (betting speak for the number
being more or less correct), the line given is the number most likely to
evenly split results over a large enough sample size. If the Florida Panthers
and Arizona Coyotes are both listed at -105 for a midweek NHL game, the
books are of the opinion that roughly speaking, if these two teams were to
play 100 times against each other, both teams would finish around the 50
wins each mark.
Similarly, if the Carolina Panthers are listed up as -7-point road
favorites over their divisional rivals, the Atlanta Falcons, this line tells us
the books estimate the Panthers to win the game roughly 75 percent of the
time to the Hawks 25 percent. In other words, in 20 games played between
the two teams, Carolina should win around 15 of them straight up. These
percentage figures are a great way on which to base your own projections.
If you give the Falcons a 35 to 40 percent chance to win in the scenario
above, then that would definitely be a potential positive EV wager.
However, you must be cautious. Your perceived EV must be based on
strong evidence. Books rarely make mistakes, so if you find yourself having
multiple instances of “positive EVphoria” then you may want to step back
and reevaluate your numbers. It is always better to rethink and recheck your
overall handicapping approach than to bet into an inefficient system.
However, before we get too negative on ourselves, books have and
consistently do make many small errors. There are literally thousands of
games and hundreds of thousands of props that must be handicapped by the
books on a daily basis, and the savvy bettor can take advantage of this.
Books cannot be 100 percent efficient on all of them and our greatest
strength as sports bettors is our ability to pick our strongest EV spots. After
all, three to five premium spots daily are all it takes to turn a significant
profit in this industry. Why bet marquee TV games where the books hold a
significant advantage when you can get paid the same amount on a mid-
afternoon Sun Belt game that is attracting little national attention? While
not always a given in these scenario’s, the chance of books posting softer
numbers in these smaller conference games occurs on a far more regular
basis than they do on big conference or nationally televised games.
This spot betting philosophy applies especially to “fringe” sports
where the books often have less experience than dedicated local guys on the
ground. If you happen to be particularly adept at a sport and have the raw
data to back it up, you may often know even more than the bookmaker
does. This is down to focused specialization.
 3. Understanding Betting Terms

There are many types of bets you can make at a sportsbook and a multitude
of different odds at which to bet them. This chapter will explain in detail the
most popular bets you can make at a sportsbook – the less popular prop bets
are generally pretty self-explanatory; for example, will Russell Wilson pass
for Over/Under 293.5 yards – and how useful all of these different types of
bets are to your betting portfolio.

Straight bets (Moneyline)

First, let’s talk about the most common type of bet, namely moneyline or
straight bets. No doubt you have come across multitudes of moneyline bets
during your visits to high street bookies or at online sportsbooks. They are
your typical straight up, “who will win” scenario bets, and are by far the
most common type of bets made by the average bettor. In any sport you will
have moneyline action. Federer v Djokovic, Detroit Pistons v Cleveland
Cavaliers, Real Madrid v Barcelona (or draw!), and all your job entails is to
pick the winner and bet accordingly. Of course this is usually easier said
than done!
Tennis and UFC/boxing are the main moneyline sports where the
pro’s usually have pure straight action. Finding them lay -220 on a baseball
team or -400 on an English Premier team is rare. In these instances, they
usually go the route of the runline (MLB) or Asian Handicap (soccer)
which will be explained later. This is because there are nearly always better
bets out there than a straight moneyline wager in these scenarios. Take for
example the 2015/2016 Super Bowl. Betting the favored Carolina Panthers
moneyline would have set you back a costly -240 (bet $240 to win $100). In
conjunction with this bet, however, Carolina’s quarterback, Cam Newton,
was a much more reasonable -120 (bet $120 to win $100) to win the Super
Bowl MVP award. Smart bettors knew that there was an extremely high
correlation between the Panthers winning the game outright and Cam
Newton being the man to get them there. Hence, laying -120 on him
becoming the Super Bowl MVP was a much more preferable bet than
having a Carolina Panthers moneyline ticket priced at a much steeper -240.
This was a much higher percentage positive EV bet in other words.
There are many other examples like this one where it often pays to
look at other more diverse markets than a simple straight moneyline bet.
However, while the vast majority of moneyline bets on favorites are purely
the domain of casual and weekend bettors, there are times when the pro’s
do jump in on them because there is so much positive EV attached. These
are usually on huge matchups, namely the CFP National Title game in
college football, the NFL Super Bowl, the soccer World Cup final or any
huge boxing or UFC event held in Las Vegas. This is because the public
loves to bet small to win big. It’s simply human nature. On huge televised
events, such as the ones listed above, the public will more often than not bet
on the underdog. This is because of the sweepstake mentality mentioned
above. While year-round with baseball, basketball, and other sports,
professional money generally heavily outweighs public money. In these
huge televised sporting events though, the opposite occurs and public
money dwarfs sharp money. The line then moves to a point of high return
for the professional bettors. Getting Floyd Mayweather at -300, knowing he
should be a -700 price or higher, means the sharps are getting the best of it
at that number and they will happily pounce all over the favorite.
Apart from these unique cases however, smart bettors usually stick
with moneyline underdogs or spread betting when betting on favorites.
Continually betting large moneyline favorites is unfortunately the road to
ruin for most bettors.

Handicap betting (The Spread)

For most professional sports bettors who operate on a day-to-day basis,
handicap betting, or spread betting, is the most common type of bet to
make. As we discussed previously, whereas the majority of the public likes
to bet moneyline and root strictly for the winner instead of having to worry
about covering a spread, the pro bettor will more times than not opt for
betting on the spread as it minimizes the potential risk while still preserving
their initial lean, provided of course the team can cover the points needed to
win. For those of you unaware or unsure of what a point spread is or how it
might work, it is the number of points allotted to a team, whether positive
or negative, that they must win by or not lose by in order for you to cash
your ticket. For example, in the NBA, the Portland Trailblazers are at home
against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The line (spread) set on the game is
Portland -8.5/Minnesota +8.5. That means a winning bet on Portland would
require them to win the game by 9 or more points. A winning ticket on
Minnesota however would require them not to lose by more than 8 points or
to win the game outright. Sometimes a line will be set at full numbers
instead of half numbers like -8.5/+8.5. These could be -15/+15, -2/+2, or
any other combination. The same rule obviously applies in these cases as it
does in the half point scenario above, apart from one important caveat.
If the game falls on the number, say the Boston Celtics win 108–106
on a -2 spread, then the game is considered a “push” and you get a full
refund on your initial wager. Shopping for the best number is paramount to
your success as a successful sports bettor. Getting in your bet at -2 instead
of -2.5 in the scenario above may seem like a small matter, but it can be the
difference between success and failure over the long-term. Websites such as
Oddschecker or Oddsportal are set up specifically for this reason, and you
should make full use of them whenever you are making a wager. If you
have any aspirations to become a professional bettor one day, then
acquainting yourself with how point spreads work is an absolute necessity,
especially when line hunting for the best point spreads available. Getting
those extra half-points can make a big difference to your yearly bottom line
.

Halftime bets
Halftime, or first quarter bets, employ exactly the same principle as
moneyline or spread betting explained above, only for a shorter duration.
Often if a game has a full game spread of -7, then the halftime spread will
be around -4 or a little over half. Moneyline is usually a similar price to the
full game line, but with a little extra juice attached. The difference in using
halftime betting opportunities over full game ones lies in your assessment
of the game. You may like Alabama to cover the -24 spread outright, but be
nervous of the fact that Nick Saban has in the past took his foot off the gas
late in games if he believes his team already won. A first-half wager on the
Crimson Tide allows you to stick with your initial lean while not being
susceptible to the infamous backdoor cover. This could also be reversed too
if you believe one team plays particularly better in the second half of a
game or if you think both teams in a Super Bowl will come out tentative
and it will be a low-scoring first quarter. Probably the most expansive use
of first half betting lies in baseball. Many professional bettors don’t like to
gamble on an unpredictable bullpen giving up a lead late in a game and so
more often just like to go with their chosen starting pitcher. Betting first
five innings as opposed to full game gives you this option and saves you
from any potential meltdowns late game, although the books will charge a
little extra juice for the starting pitcher-only privilege.
Bets like these first half wagers can often be more profitable than their
full game counterparts, so mix and match accordingly. If you feel you have
a decided edge in one particular half or quarter, or you don’t trust a shaky
bullpen to close out a late game lead, then don’t be afraid to back a halftime
wager instead of the full game.

Totals
Totals are an extremely popular bet that you will find at nearly every Vegas
odds counter and beyond. They relate to the total number of points scored
in a game or on a particular listed prop such as season win totals, player
performance, grand salamis (total runs or goals for that day), and so on. The
object is to correctly estimate whether or not the game or prop in question
will go over or under the posted total. In terms of single game events, it is
whether or not you believe the combined score of both teams added
together will go over or under the number listed. This could be in regards to
the full game, first half, first quarter, or any combination of the above. You
will usually see full game totals posted right beside the spread for most
games. For example, if the Chicago Cubs are at the Miami Marlins and the
total for the game is posted at 6.5 runs, and if the game should finish 8–2 to
the Cubs (10 runs in total), you would win with an over ticket and lose with
an under ticket.
There are a lot of professional sports bettors who specialize solely in
betting totals; totals are a good alternative to spread betting depending on
how you read the game and how much line movement has occurred in other
markets – for example, the Houston Rockets to blow out the New Orleans
Pelicans by 15 or more points. Hypothetically, the line moves from an
initial opener of Houston -9 to -11.5 by game time. Do you take the risk of
betting into a line knowing you’re getting the worst of the number or look
for alternative bets? Better, in this instance especially if you believe the
game to be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair, to bet over the total of 214.5,
which hypothetically moved minimally since the opening line. Often in
these cases, if you have a particular read on a game but are unsure as to
whether or not the team you favor is capable of covering the spread, or
simply the line has moved too much in the opposite direction as shown in
the scenario above, totals are a better way to approach a game. This is
because of betting correlation which will be explained further in the
following section.
As seen, totals are pretty self-explanatory as far as betting
terminology goes. It is worth noting, however, as with betting the spread,
that it is possible to get pushes when betting totals. So as in spread betting,
it is of paramount importance to get the best possible number before placing
a wager.

Correlated Bets
You’re stoked. It’s Super Bowl week and you really like the Denver
Broncos in this matchup. You’ve been talking to your buddies all week
about how you think that the books giving Denver +5.5 points is a mistake
and you believe that they not only cover this number, but win the game
outright. Usually an average bettor would simply be happy with this
assessment, bet the game, sit back and enjoy. However, the more savvy
bettors correlate their bets in accordance with how they see the game
playing out. In the 2015/2016 NFL season, Denver had the number one
defense in the league. Every game they won came down to them holding
the opposition to less than 24 points. The team as a whole endeavored to not
be involved in any “shootouts” as that would have been detrimental to their
chances of winning and gone against their defensive strengths. So, as in the
Super Bowl case above, if you were to like Denver +5.5, it would be the
next logical step to like the game to go under 46 total points also.
This is because in order to win the game they would need to shutdown
Carolina’s offense, and hence, likely keep the game from going over the
posted total. You could go further with this assessment, taking for example
the under per quarter and Cam Newton’s (Carolina’s QB) passing yards
under also, as it’s a fair assumption based off of your handicapping of the
game that the Denver defense would be capable of shutting down Carolina’s
read options and getting sacks on the QB as well. If all of your hypotheses
on the game hold true, then there are many more bets out there worth your
consideration too, rather than simply betting the game on the spread or
moneyline. Because of all this, correlated bets are some of the best EV bets
and are always a good wager; provided you can get them at the right price
and your numbers are accurate.

In-play (Live betting)

In-play, or live betting, is something that has been around for a number of
years but is a facet of sports betting that has seen massive growth over just
the last couple of years. In-play is offered by nearly every major bookmaker
and does exactly what the name implies – it offers you the chance to make a
wager on a game that is already in progress. Odds are updated live and
constantly shift and change depending on what is happening on the
field/court. With better technology, the bookmakers can react faster than
ever to on-field events, enabling up-to-the second odds to be updated at a
rapid rate. For a sports bettor, in-play betting is an extremely valuable tool
and enables you to either hedge out (a term used to describe backing the
other side of a bet to either minimize losses or gain profit) of an existing
pregame wager or to take advantage of public perception and get the best
possible number available. Generally speaking, both totals and slow-
starting favorites can be among the best spots to use in-play betting to your
own advantage – and every sport has unique opportunities to make
profitable use of live betting.
The NBA is ideally suited to in-play betting. Since tempo changes so
dramatically from quarter to quarter, bookmakers often have a hard time
predicting where the line should be. We will talk about the advantages of in-
play betting further in the NBA chapter and the best situations in which to
utilize live betting to maximum effect.

Parlays/Accumulators
Parlays, or accumulators, depending on where you are based, are a series of
bets made together with the potential of a huge payout at the end. Parlays
can come in any given number, from a two-team parlay, all the way up to a
twenty-team parlay and beyond. You will sometimes read in some local and
national newspapers about a person who “struck gold” when their 20 team
accumulator came in and they got paid a cool $300,000 for the cost of a $10
ticket! While these instances are great to read about, they are unfortunately
very rare. And if you were to examine the true expected value of the ticket
more closely, you would most likely find that the actual odds of all of these
events happening in succession would be much larger than what the regular
betting slip itself offers.
Parlay tickets are a chance for small bettors to win big, and as stated,
sometimes they do get lucky and payoff. However, in the long run, betting
large parlays or accumulators is always a negative EV proposition and
should, for all intents and purposes, be avoided. As always though, there are
exceptions to every rule. One of these is the two-team parlay.
Say for instance you like both the LA Kings -150 and the New York
Rangers -135 in hockey, but don’t feel overly enamored about laying the
heavy juice with each, (the “juice” or vigorish is the cut the bookmakers
attach to bets in order to make a profit). Parlaying them together for around
even money might be the smarter play. This is because if both lose on
separate wagers, you’ll lose nearly three units, -285 (a unit can be whatever
you designate as your desired betting amount, one unit=$10, one unit=$50,
or whatever you decide). If you split the games you’ll still be down almost a
half-unit with the heavy juice attached to each. The only way you cash is if
they both win and that can be risky. Parlaying them both together however
eliminates the risk of the heavy juice and the potential heavy loss while still
gaining you a full unit if they both win. Many sharp bettors operate this way
if their unwilling to bet on large single favorites. It can be a very profitable
action. However, while two-team parlays can be beneficial to your overall
betting portfolio, betting on a five-, six-, ten-, or even twenty-team parlay is
always negative EV in the long run and your odds of winning reflect this. If
you’re going to play accumulators and parlays, stick to the simple two-team
kind and leave the long shots to the lottery bettors.

Teasers
Teasers are a betting option that allow you to “tease” spreads down by six
or seven points. What this means in effect is that you get six or seven extra
points to play with on a game, thus enhancing your overall point spread or
total, teasing up a +8 spread to +14 for example, or teasing a -6 line down
to a “pick ’em” game. It gives you a much greater range in point spread
selection, therefore giving you a much greater chance of covering the game.
This however comes at the cost of having to win two games instead of the
normal one, with the payout only remaining the same. Teasers also usually
have more juice attached to them than single game events. This is in direct
correlation to the much higher winning percentage that you get in teased
games. Don’t let all these factors put you off however. Teasers can be a very
effective betting tool when used in the right circumstances.
Let’s say you like the Baltimore Ravens and the Denver Broncos
priced at -6.5 and +5 respectively, but aren’t sure whether either team can
fully cover the spread in their respective games. Teasing them both together
would be an effective way to get your bet down without having to sweat
about the closing line. Combining both teams into a popular six-point teaser
would get you Baltimore at pick (just to win the game straight up) and get
your Denver +5 bet through the key numbers of both seven and 10 for a
new adjusted point spread of Denver +11. Three, seven, and 10 are referred
to as key numbers in terms of NFL betting because these are the numbers
most games are commonly won or lost by. Three is the most common
number in the NFL, as nearly 15 percent of all games finish by exactly this
margin. Therefore, it is an extremely important number to tease through.
We will go into a little more detail on key numbers in the subsequent NFL
chapter.
The Ravens/Broncos tease explained above substitutes the potentially
two risky individual bets into a single teaser bet, which has a lot more room
for error when combined together. These extra points you get as part of a
teasing situation are usually all you need to turn a potentially losing bet into
a winning one. Like parlays however, you must remember that if just one
game loses, your ticket is a loss no matter what happens in the other game.
This is the risk you take for having the additional points attached to your
ticket.
On the whole though, teasers are a great way to make money provided
you choose your spots wisely. Betting teasers are applicable in a variety of
sports, however NFL teasers are by far the most popular, and also the best
spots to use them in. Divisional matchups for instance are a great way of
employing teasers as part of your betting portfolio, especially on defense-
orientated teams. Having a close fought divisional game like Baltimore at
Cleveland or Seattle at Arizona is usually a great opportunity to employ a
teaser play. Getting extra points in these scenarios is usually a great bet .
 Just as with point spreads, totals can also be a great way to tease a
game, provided you can tease through some key numbers: 37, 41, and so
on. As above, divisional matchups and defense-orientated games are the
best scenarios in which to do this. In a close fought game, only having to
get over 31 points instead of the normal 37, could be an excellent wager.
Try and find these matchups every week – usually there are at least two or
three good spots in which to employ a teaser play.
While NFL teasers can be very profitable if used correctly throughout
the season, other teaser props are less so. Using teaser plays in NBA or
college sports is unwise and overall negative EV, so generally should be
avoided. This is because the variance is simply too high. Getting an extra
six or seven points in NBA is a lot less important than it is in NFL, as the
scores are so much higher. The same goes for college sports, as not only are
totals higher, but blowouts are more common too.
Stick to NFL, and teasers can be an extremely profitable way for you
to make money during the NFL season.

Futures
Some of the very best value you can find in the sports betting industry is in
the futures market. While this may seem somewhat counter intuitive as
futures odds are usually some of the worst value odds listed on the board,
the ability to “hedge out” of future positions gives your bets much greater
leverage. Let’s talk about this in greater detail.
First, the negative aspects of futures betting. The most common issue
with betting on any futures market, be it regular season win totals for a team
or who will win the Super Bowl, is that your money is tied up for months.
Think the Detroit Lions are a good bet at 40/1 to lift the Vince Lombardi
Trophy this year? Tying up a sizable chunk of your betting bankroll in
August for a six-month wait might not be the best idea, no matter how good
the initial value may be. Also, a side effect of betting on a team in the
futures market is that while not always the case, it can skew your views on
potentially important games that can happen down the line. Knowing you
have a 40/1 ticket on Detroit, and they’re playing Green Bay in a must-win
playoff game, might hamper your ability to objectively handicap that one
single game. Some professional bettors often steer clear of the futures
market for this very reason.
 The other reason why futures bets can often be overlooked is that, as
stated earlier, the odds offered are usually a lot less than what would be
offered if you simply rolled a moneyline bet over at the start of a playoff or
tournament. This “rollover” strategy is one that most professional sports
bettors use to get enhanced value rather than simply betting a straight future
prop.
Let’s say for example you get the Kansas Jayhawks at +700 to win the
NCAA men’s basketball tournament at the start of March Madness. This
would be a lot less than you would win if you simply bet Kansas moneyline
in every game they played right up to the final (avoiding the first round or
two when laying $7,500 to win $100, for example, is simply not worth the
risk). In almost all cases, rolling these wins over round by round
consecutively nets you much greater odds than the initial odds offered by
the sportsbooks. This strategy also has the added bonus of letting you opt
out of any particularly tough games. Don’t like their chances against a
rejuvenated Wisconsin Badgers team in the Final Four? You can skip the
game entirely or cash out right there, whereas in a futures bet your money is
already locked in. The ability to cash out or skip games at will, is a major
positive of the rollover strategy. Keep this highly effective betting strategy
in mind the next time you are planning on investing on a team in the futures
market.
However, while there are some major negatives to betting on futures,
there are also some major positives as well. The main one we will discuss
here is the ability to “leverage” your plays.
The majority of people assume that betting on a team to win a
particular conference or championship means that they have to win that title
outright in order to cash their betting ticket. However, this is simply not true
and smart bettors usually have their money made well in advance of the
deciding championship game in question even being played.
A few years ago I personally saw the Washington Wizards listed up at
+15000 (150/1) to win the NBA Championship. While, like most bettors, I
saw no chance of the Wizards actually winning the NBA title, with the
Eastern Conference being so weak there was a fair to good chance that the
Wizards would at least make the NBA Playoffs, so getting 150/1 on a
potential playoff team was outstanding value. As it happened, the Wizards
did make the playoffs that year and having a 150/1 ticket in my pocket gave
me enormous leverage to make money during the duration of the playoffs.
 This is because every team they played that year gave me a great
hedging opportunity. Knowing you have a ticket worth potentially $15,100
($100 x 150 plus initial $100 stake) allows you to bet on every opposing
team they play against for profit, knowing you’re covered in every
eventuality.
With proper money management, even in a worst-case scenario where
the Wizards win every series they play as huge underdogs, you’ll still win
your initial future of them winning the NBA title – and if you’ve been
betting smart, still walk away with a small to medium profit. That year the
Wizards beat the Bulls in the first series, but with my enormous ticket on
the Wizards, I could afford the initial loss on the Bulls and double down on
the Indiana Pacers in the next round, who eventually eliminated the Wizards
in six games and allowed me to cash out for a large profit. Steadily
increasing your wager percentage, as in this scenario, on every successive
series will allow you to cash out for a nice profit almost every time. This is
one of the best ways to bet in any capacity, futures or otherwise.

Prop Bets/Exotics
Prop bets, or exotics, are the wide array of options that cover a multitude of
betting opportunities in player and team markets. Far from the straight
betting, totals and team on team bets that are most common in the sports
betting industry, prop bets cover individual player props – Stephen Curry
over/under 26.5 points, for example – all the way up to the Super Bowl
pregame coin toss and everything in-between. Prop bets cover a variety of
specialist angles and every year they become more and more exotic and
available in ever greater numbers. Which will be higher, the Golden State
Warriors halftime score or the total in the Denver Broncos/New England
Patriots game? What color Gatorade will be dunked over the winning
coach’s head? What color dress will Lady Gaga wear for the singing of the
national anthem? And so on. There are literally tens of thousands of bets to
wager on at any one time and in hundreds of individual fields across a
broad spectrum of sports and entertainment markets. The choice nowadays
is simply astounding.
While most prop bets are negative EV, the Super Bowl coin toss being
a prime example (paying -105 (19/20) on either side of a 50/50 proposition
is ALWAYS a bad betting strategy). However, having expert knowledge on
a particular prop, C.J. Spiller over/under rushing yards for instance, might
not be, and may even be a solid long-term strategy for beating the
sportsbooks. As with most betting markets, utilizing your information as
early as possible before the bookmakers have time to adjust is paramount.
This is especially true in the age of social media. Today, knowledge never
remains secret for very long. So unless you’re quick to the betting window,
other sports bettors will no doubt have noticed the same value as you, and
move the line against you often negating any edge there may have been on
the prop in question. Use the sheer amount of exotic bets out there to your
advantage. As with so many markets on offer, the sportsbooks are often
stretched too thin. With just a little specialist knowledge you may have
more of an edge than you realize in gaining an advantage over the
sportsbooks.
Now that we have discussed the various types of bets on offer and
how they work, let’s look at the different types of odds available worldwide,
how to understand them, and give straight-forward examples for evaluating
the advantages and disadvantages of each .

Explanation of Odds
Depending on where on the globe you live, you might be more familiar
with seeing American, decimal, or even fractional odds quoted at casinos or
sportsbooks. While they all translate mathematically to the same amount,
understanding the value of each allows you a broader spectrum of bets and
lines to shop them internationally, hence becoming more aware of spotting
any potential value. Below is a brief explanation of each betting format.

American Odds
American odds, unsurprisingly, are the default odds most widely quoted in
the USA. These are the odds format you will see in the gambling mecca of
Las Vegas and at casinos across Nevada. American odds are listed in both
positive and negative fashion. Positive odds comprising of the underdog
and negative odds for the favorite. In American odds, everything revolves
around the number 100. Odds of +100/-100 are an even money prop (bet).
Odds listed at -150, a favorite, mean you must risk $150 of your own
money to win $100. Conversely, a +150 price, an underdog, means risking
$100 of your money to win $150. For example, let’s say Conor McGregor,
the UFC fighter, is listed as a -300 favorite over another UFC fighter. The
underdog in this scenario is listed at a market-wide underdog price of +270.
If you like McGregor, you would have to lay $300 to win $100, or $900 to
win $300, and so on. If you think the underdog has more of a chance than
the odds suggest, than betting $100 on him would win you $270, or $300
would win you $810, and so on.
Remember also when betting at any casino or bookie you always get
your original stake returned, so in the above scenario, betting $300 on
McGregor would get you back a total of $400 – $100 won plus your
original stake back. Conversely, $300 on the underdog would get you back
a total of $1,110 – $810 won plus your original stake of $300 back. This is
an important point to understand whenever you make a wager. As long as
you remember that positive stands for underdog and negative for favorite,
American odds are pretty straightforward to understand .

Decimal Odds
While American odds are most widely used in the USA, decimal odds are
primarily used in mainland Europe, Canada, and Australia. They are also
the most common format quoted on worldwide betting exchanges. The
reason for their frequency in the worldwide betting market is their general
ease of use. To work out your potential profit using decimal odds on any
given wager, simply take your initial bet amount and multiply it by the
decimal odds listed. For example, let’s use an English Premier League
match to highlight the use of decimal odds: Arsenal v Southampton.
Arsenal has listed odds of 1.76, the draw at 3.68; and Southampton has
listed odds of 4.91. If you were to put a $100 bet on Arsenal to win, your
total return would be $176 (100 x 1.76). Minus your initial wager amount,
this would leave you a potential profit of $76. Conversely, betting $100 on
Southampton would give you back a total of $591 (100 x 4.91 + initial
wager amount) for a total profit of $491. As stated, this is a very easy
method to work out any potential profit. In fact it’s almost essential to learn
for a sports bettor as the decimal format is the most common form of
betting odds listed worldwide.

Fractional Odds
Fractional odds, while marginalized somewhat over the past number of
years with the advent of online sportsbooks’ preference for using decimal
odds, are still the predominant odds system used in the UK and Ireland.
Any high street bookie in Dublin, Glasgow, or London will have them
displayed prominently. They are the oldest form of listed odds available
stemming from centuries of tradition in horse racing.
To breakdown fractional odds in a simple manner, first take the
number on your right. This is the amount you must bet. The number on the
left shows you what you will win in respect to this. For example, the
Brooklyn Nets are listed as 4/1 on the moneyline to win outright and the
Dallas Mavericks are posted up at a price of 2/11. Moneyline is specifically
highlighted here because spread betting is usually more common when
betting NBA. Using this format, a $100 wager on the Brooklyn Nets would
get you back a total of $500 ($400 profit plus your initial bet). A $100
wager on the Dallas Mavericks would get you back a little over $18 in
profit ($118 overall). In fractional terms, the favorite (larger number on the
right) is referred to as an “odds on” favorite. The underdog is generally
referred to as “odds against.” While fractional odds are a little harder to
calculate than using American or decimal odds, hence the decrease in their
global use, they are still relatively straightforward. Also, because of their
prevalence in the UK and Ireland, knowing how to calculate them while
there can be especially useful.
Though there are other smaller forms of betting odds, these three
cover about 99 percent of all odds listed internationally. Understanding
them will enhance your gambling acumen and give you a greater edge in
spotting any potential value.
 Part Two

The Six Key Principles

 Principle One
4. Understanding Money Management

It is no surprise that in sports betting, as in life, those that are more

judicious with their money will usually end up being more financially
successful than those who aren’t. Effective money management is one of
the key principles to becoming a successful sports bettor and winning
handicapper. While many people assume that picking consistent winners is
often all you need to succeed at sports betting – and it is a fairly important
part of it! – it isn’t ALL that is required in order to become successful. To
do that, and ensure you stay ahead of the competition, you need to
implement a stringent money management philosophy from day one. A
system that will endeavor to both maximize your profit, and limit your
losses through cold streaks which will inevitably happen during your career
as a sports bettor. These money management techniques and strategies can
take a variety of forms and we will detail some of the more successful and
well-known ones below.

The Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion, or Kelly Betting Formula in sports circles, has become
an increasingly popular betting strategy over the last number of years. It has
seen broad success across a number of industries, not just in sports betting
but also on Wall Street and other investment circles. With this growth, its
formula has attracted numerous sports investors to its method as well, and
also some detractors. Below we will look at exactly what the Kelly
Criterion is, how to use it accurately, and both the advantages and
disadvantages of using it as part of your sports betting portfolio.
The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal
percentage stake of a wager. Its determining outcome for this is based off of
probability theory and it tries to strike the most favorable balance of both
maximizing the potential winnings of any wager whilst never overextending
your bankroll too strenuously. This is done by taking your estimated
percentage chances of winning a wager, let’s say you favor the Minnesota
Timberwolves to cover the spread 60 percent of the time for example, and
then calculate this against its chances of failure and its listed odds. The
formula is laid out as follows (bp-q)/b where b is the listed odds -1, p is the
estimated probability of the bet succeeding, and q is the probability of
failure. Working with this formula, the above scenario of the Timberwolves
having a 60 percent chance of covering the spread at average decimal
spread odds of 1.9 would be as follows in three steps:

(Decimal odds -1 x est. probability – est. failure) / decimal odds -1

1. – (0.9x0.6–0.4)/0.9
2. – (0.54–0.4)/0.9
3. – 0.14/0.9 = 0.1555
Answer is 0.16 when rounded up.

Therefore, the Kelly Criterion would suggest putting an optimal 16 percent

stake of your betting bankroll on this wager to maximize expected value.
Because the Kelly Criterion relies on percentages for its wager amounts, it
never truly puts your bankroll at risk due to its downsizing of amounts if
bankroll shrinks. As a case in point, two guys walking into a casino looking
to wager on the above scenario using Kelly Criterion, but with different
betting bankrolls, will still only put at risk that which they can effectively
afford to lose. 16% of $1000 is $160 but 16% of $100 is only $16. Neither
guy is overextending himself using this system but both are maximizing
their chances of effective bankroll growth while using it .
The obvious downside to the Kelly Criterion system for use by sports
bettors is also one of its main components, namely p, or probability of bet
succeeding. In tests and studies where Kelly Criterion is given exact data to
work with, as in coin studies with pre-given hypothetical probability values
of heads turning up at exactly 52 percent, the Kelly Criterion formula is the
best at maximizing growth, whilst minimizing any potential losses. But in
sports betting there is no such thing as a definite fixed probability outcome
for sports events, and therein lies the fundamental problem in using the
Kelly Criterion on a day-to-day sports betting basis. How do you accurately
predict what kind of edge you have on a game before placing a wager?
Often gamblers perceive their edge in an upcoming sports matchup to be
much more than it actually is, and so Kelly Criterion becomes almost a
liability under these circumstances. If you use this system of money
management, be cautious in your evaluation of any positive EV edge you
may have going into a matchup, as overestimating your chances could do
more harm than good.

Flat Unit/Staggered Unit Betting

Another popular method of effective money management in sports betting
is the system most commonly referred to as flat betting, or staggered
betting. What this in effect means is assigning a unit value to each game,
whether this is the same for every game, one unit per game, or varying unit
sizes dependent on how strong a lean you have on the game, whether this is
one, two, three, or more units placed on an outcome. Both of these methods
are extremely popular amongst gamblers and sports bettors and have the
added advantage of being very straightforward and practical at the betting
window without having to pull out a calculator.
For most bettors, simple flat betting is the most convenient strategy –
betting $100 on each game (or whatever your unit value may be)
irrespective of how strongly you feel on that particular matchup. This
betting approach has the advantage of allowing you to not get carried away
with any pregame hype or false feelings and allows you to remain
consistent to your overall betting blueprint; betting each game in a steady,
efficient manner. The disadvantage to flat betting however is its inability to
maximize your potential EV on a bet. Usually, if you like a side in a
particular matchup, having the line move for or against you would warrant
further consideration on your part concerning exactly how much to wager.
If the line moves against you, then either waiting for a better line or
weakening your position would be the most effective measure to take. If the
line moves in your favor, however, coming off of a key NFL number like -3
to -2.5 for instance, then this would be a situation that would warrant a
stronger position than might have initially been thought. Flat betting
eliminates the risk to these situations somewhat, but also eliminates the
potential gain. If you find yourself in a position of strength on a particular
number, just like the Kelly Criterion advocates, it is often wise to take
maximum advantage of it and bet your percentages accordingly. Rarely will
you have two games you like equally, so flat betting can be a detriment if
you are an advantage player. However, if you are new to betting or are
somewhat risk-averse, flat betting is often the best method to go with as not
only is it simple to use, but also an efficient method for tracking your bets.
Staggered unit betting is very similar to flat betting apart from that
you grade your bets in ascending order, anything from one to three or one to
five units, depending on strength or other factors. A lot of professional
handicappers will often be stronger in some sports over others, so naturally
this staggered unit system gives them a wider scope in which to maximize
their bets in the sports that they are strong in, and limit exposure on those
sports where they are not as strong.
The main strength of staggered unit betting over more conventional
flat betting is in its versatility. Not all games are created equal and neither
are all betting opportunities. Staggered betting allows you to take advantage
of this. Do you believe your numbers suggest that the St. Louis Blues are
going to be too strong at home tonight against a weak Nashville Predators
team? A full unit bet sounds like the most optimal wager. Repeat the same
scenario as above but now imagine the line on the game has dropped
leading to even further value on the home favorite. Perhaps increasing your
wager to 1.5x or 2x that of your normal wager would be an optimal betting
strategy. Repeat the same original scenario as before but you now find out a
few hours before game time that the Blues starting goaltender is out and a
late replacement has been drafted in. A 0.5x unit wager or perhaps sitting
out the game entirely might be the best course of action under these
circumstances. Whatever situation arises within betting, using the staggered
unit system allows you some maneuverability to either increase or decrease
your initial wager amount in order to adapt to new information. When used
correctly, this adaptability can be extremely profitable to your overall
betting bankroll as you can increase advantage on wagers you feel more
strongly about and decrease exposure on those bets you deem more risky.
The main drawback to staggered betting, as in using Kelly Criterion as
well, is of course in how to accurately predict exactly what kind of edge
you have. Generally, the greater the variance in your core unit system, be it
one to three, one to five, one to seven, or whatever, the greater the error in
precisely determining what kind of edge you have. As a general rule of
thumb, keeping your core units within a tighter range is more beneficial
than using a wider range, as not only can you more accurately estimate your
advantage, but also it keeps your units in check. Rarely, if ever, is a single
game wager worth three or four times that of any other wager, no matter
how strong of an edge you believe you have. If you find your unit values
reflect this wide range in size, try and cut out the smaller plays and focus
more on the premium plays in order to take maximum advantage of any
edge you have. Remember, never force plays. Keeping your biggest plays to
two, or perhaps three times that of your normal wagers means you should
never find yourself too exposed on any particular bet.
Overall, it is prudent to use whatever money management system you
feel most comfortable with. Flat betting may be a good way to start if you
are initially unsure of how to calculate your projected edge on a game. But
if you want to try and maximize your winning percentage further, Kelly
Criterion or staggered betting may be the way to go. In conclusion, the main
thing to remember is to never overextend your liability on any one wager. A
lot of amateur bettors make the mistake of overestimating their edge on a
wager, and as a result overextend their bankrolls accordingly. The golden
rule is to never have any more than five to ten percent of your betting
bankroll in play at any one time, dependent on your risk tolerance, no
matter which system you decide to use.
 Principle Two
5. Understanding Power Rankings

Power rankings are the fundamental building blocks for any handicapper.
Before trends, before line moves, before anything else, you should already
have a full set of power rankings up and running assessing the various
strengths and weaknesses of each team.
Power rankings are designed to show you, in a numeric format, where
each team stands from a point spread perspective. A multitude of different
data is used when constructing these power rankings: strength of schedule,
team depth, recent roster additions, home field advantage, recent vs.
historical rankings, neutral margins, the worth of “blowout” diminishing
returns, impact of weather, and many more.
There are many different methods for generating power rankings.
They range from the complex algorithms that originate from places such as
MIT and Stanford, to custom made power rankings that any part-time
handicapper with just a couple of hours a week in their spare time can
produce. A few of the more accessible methods are outlined below in order
to get you started.
Let’s say the New Orleans Pelicans are playing the Detroit Pistons in
the NBA with the line set at Detroit -5.5. Working out who will win this
contest will require you to calculate points totals for each team. One of the
more common systems for doing this is given below. Let’s start with the
away team.
 The first method to creating your own set of power rankings on a
game is to take the last five scores from each team, both for and against,
and from these scores come up with an average points scored/points
allowed number for both teams. Let’s say the Pelicans have scored 105, 94,
102, 121, and 115 in their last five games and gave up 91, 103, 105, 116,
and 82. To calculate points for; (105 + 94 + 102 + 121 + 115 = 537/5 =
107.4) and to calculate points against; (91 + 103 + 105 + 116 + 82 = 497/5
= 99.4. This gives the Pelicans a mean average points total of PF (points
for) 107.4 and PA (points against) 99.4 respectively.
When calculating these averages, feel free to use either mean or
modified median average for best results. To work out the modified median
average of the above scenario, simply take out both the highest and lowest
scores from the five given, in the example above these would be 121/94 and
116/82 respectively. Then calculate the mean average of the remaining three
scores as before. These would give you modified points totals of PF 107.3
and PA 99.7. As you can see, these points totals are almost identical to the
previous set of numbers, but a lot of handicappers nonetheless prefer this
modified median approach as it eliminates any blowout wins or losses over
the five game span and generally “tightens up” the power ranking numbers’
accuracy overall.
The next thing to do is to “weight” your power numbers to the two
most recent games played. What this means is putting more emphasis on the
teams most recent performances and how well they played. If these two
most recent scores were under the average points scored or allowed, then
downgrade them by a point. If above, upgrade them by a point. In the
Pelicans case above you would add a point to their PF rating to make a new
PF rating of 108.4. This is because the Pelicans have scored significantly
more points than usual in their last two games, but there would be no
change in their PA points total as they were both above and below the
median average. This weighting system gives added emphasis to form and
allows recognition of teams who are playing well, further modifying your
ratings for accuracy.
Now, let’s work out the power rating for each team heading into the
game. In the above scenario we gave New Orleans’ modified PF rating as
108.4 and their PA rating as 99.4. Let’s say the Detroit Pistons, following
the method outlined above, have a PF rating of 104.4 and a PA rating of
98.6. What you now need to do is add the Pelicans’ PF total with the
Pistons’ PA total to come up with the number of points New Orleans should
score in this matchup. The result would be a points total of 103.5 (108.4 +
98.6 / 2 = 103.5). This is the score our power rankings suggest New
Orleans’ likely averages for this game. Repeating the same method for
Detroit gives us a suggested point total of 101.9. Rounding these figures up,
our preliminary power ranking score for this matchup is New Orleans 104,
Detroit 102.
Once you have the power ranking matchup points totals for the game,
the last thing you need to calculate for is home field advantage (HFA), or in
the case of NBA, home court advantage. Home court advantage in the NBA
can be anywhere from two to six points, depending on a variety of different
factors including location, crowd noise and even referee bias. Let’s say the
Detroit Pistons are somewhere in the middle of this two to six point range
and so we give them a hypothetical HFA rating of 4 points. This gives us a
final power ranking game score of New Orleans 102, Detroit 104 (-2/+2 for
HFA). With the spread set at Detroit -5.5, this shows clear value on the New
Orleans Pelicans side of the play with our power rankings showing them
losing only by two.
As stated, the above method is one of the more common ones used in
the working out of teams’ power rankings and can be used in almost any
sport. However, it is by no means the only technique. Another very
straightforward method of acquiring accurate power rankings is the
universal approach. This method requires taking three to five different sets
of power rankings (there are an enormous amount out there, anywhere from
multi-sport covering ESPN to specialized individual sport data such as the
excellent Kenpom in college basketball) and then converting their power
ranking numbers to a common median. An absolutely indispensable website
for doing this is the excellent Thepredictiontracker.com , which carries a
large number of accurate and well-known power ranking systems on its
database. To follow the universal method, first add each individual power
ranking together (usually between three and five) and divide this number by
the total number of different power rankings you are using. And voila! You
now have a working set of extremely accurate power rankings for each
sport and team. Thepredictiontracker.com even gives you the current
rankings for each set of power rankings, so finding which ones to use by
sport is made even more effortless. While not the most detailed method of
creating power rankings ever created, this approach is still an extremely
valuable way of acquiring your own set of accurate power rankings in the
most efficient and simple way possible.
For totals handicapping, either of the methods outlined above will
work great, substituting last five points scored for last five totals and
examining total numbers instead of sides when evaluating online power
rankings.
Learning to tinker with whatever set of power rankings you decide to
go with is vital and will either ensure long-term success or going back to
the drawing board and adopting a different approach. Always weight your
numbers accordingly, placing more importance on more recent events,
rather than historic or out of season situations. Recent statistics always
contain more detailed analysis of a team’s performance than games played
weeks or months ago.
However, there are always exceptions. Be aware of when a game is
meaningful or not. When the San Antonio Spurs have locked up the second-
seed in the Western Conference and go on the road to lose to a twelfth-
placed Utah Jazz team at the end of the regular season, was this a
meaningful loss or not? How much emphasis should you place on this game
and how many points, if any, should you adjust your power rankings to
reflect this? Changing your power rankings drastically for these two teams
on what are effectively meaningless scores could lead your data to become
unbalanced and inaccurate over the long-term. Using the modified score
totals approach above (throwing out both the highest and lowest points
totals that the team has registered in their last five games) should help with
this but always be extra cautious approaching the playoffs or the inevitable
end-of-season tanking for poor teams looking for top draft picks. Scores
during these parts of the season often rely more heavily on other factors and
less on accurate power rankings.
Continually assessing and improving upon your own set of power
rankings however will give you a solid handicapping foundation and a
much greater ability in the long run to effectively handicap and predict
games.
 Principle Three
6. Understanding Trends

Trends have become an integral part of sports betting talk right across the
industry. Turn on any sports talk radio show and more than likely you will
hear everything from “The Dallas Mavericks have won just one game from
their last ten starts at home” to “The Washington Nationals are 4–1 in
Scherzer’s last five starts.” These trends have become synonymous with
sports media as they all seem to have a strong bearing on the outcome of the
upcoming game. But do they? And if so, which trends are worth following
closely and which simply aren’t worth your time? This chapter will
endeavor to examine which trends should be fundamental in your overall
handicapping approach and which ones are best to ignore.
So, to answer the first question, do trends have a strong bearing on the
outcome of an upcoming game? Well, yes and no. While a lot of trends you
read about are simply sound bytes designed to show off a particular angle
the media wants to talk about and will likely have no direct impact on a
game, there are times when strong historical trends do indeed have a direct
correlation on the game in question.
Let’s take for example the semi-final of the 2006 FIFA World Cup.
The heavy favorite and host Germany, was up against their main European
rivals, Italy, in the penultimate stage of the competition. Germany had
blown away everyone in their path up to this point, finishing top of their
qualifying group and registering solid victories over Sweden and an
excellent Argentina team playing with a lot of flair. With vociferous
German home support cheering on their every game, they seemed good
value for the low odds they were priced at to lift the World Cup Trophy.
Facing Germany in this high profile match was an Italian side that had
somehow limped their way to a semi-final spot. While they did finish top of
Group E, they failed to get maximum points, unlike the runaway Germans,
drawing with the US national team and looking frail in attack throughout.
Things didn’t get much better for Italy in the following knockout round
either. A ninety-fifth-minute penalty saw them finally see off a dogged
Australian side who were more than a match for the Italians for the majority
of the second round match. In the quarter-final match however, Italy finally
seemed to turn up at the tournament, bagging two important second half
goals to see off a decent Ukrainian side. Despite this good result however,
Italy looked ill-equipped to handle a high-octane German outfit that
possessed enormous talent and strong home field advantage. The scene was
set for what would become a massively important semi-final clash between
the two European soccer giants.
However, if you had paid attention to sports talk radio that morning,
you would have heard a very interesting trend in relation to these two sides.
Most notably, in over 80 years of international competition, Germany had
never beaten Italy in any major international soccer tournament. As trends
go, this was quite a notable one!
As far as the game itself went, Italy beat Germany 2–0 in extra time.
Whether the pressure of the semi-final got to Germany in front of their
raucous home country support, that imposing trend of never having beaten
Italy in any major competition overcame them on the night, or they simply
weren’t good enough, whatever the reason may have been, Germany looked
poor throughout and eventually crashed out via two-late-injury time goals.
This result came as a major shock to everyone involved in sports, except of
course trend bettors.
These types of meaningful overpowering trends are rare however and
even in the 2016 European Championship, Germany finally overcame their
Italian curse and won on penalties in the quarter final (although still not in
regulation time), knocking out their bitter rivals. So always be a little
cautious when trusting in trends completely.
Often in NHL or MLB you will see trends that show the Florida
Panthers are 12–74 when playing in Pittsburgh or the Colorado Rockies are
just 9–60 when playing the Giants in San Francisco off a two-game slide.
These trends are often significant, but only as far as putting you off playing
that side. The one thing to always remember is that, as you are aware the
Rockies are generally poor in San Francisco, so too are the bookies, and
therefore any advantage you may have had to begin with. Laying -220 on a
team just because of a strong trend bias is never enough of a reason to
simply blindly bet that team. Trends, while sometimes of significant value,
only show what has happened in the past, and thus are not always an
accurate predictor of the future.
This leads us into the first major disadvantage of trend analysis.
Namely, the weight you attach to historical significance. Imagine betting
the Chicago Cubs going into the 2015 season. Chances are any significant
trends you would have read would have been heavily stacked against the
Cubs. This was because of the Chicago Cubs relatively poor record going
into the 2015 season, not having clinched a playoff berth since 1998 for
instance. However, the Chicago Cubs shook things up going into the 2015
season. They brought in some big pitching changes to the rotation and
added other major roster additions too. They had a major coup as well in
recruiting proven coach Joe Maddon from the Tampa Bay Rays and things
were looking bright for the Chicago team from the North Side. Yet, from a
pure trend standpoint, a lot of games looked good value in opposing the
Cubs going into the season, owing to their previously poor record.
However, following this trend method through as a sports bettor,
would have led to a very tough year in the red, as the Cubs finished the
season 97–65, going all the way to the NLCS Championship Series. And
the Cubs even eclipsed this great season when they won the World Series in
2016!
This illustrates one of the major issues with trend betting. That things
inevitably change. Rosters never stay the same for long in professional
sports and coaches too are transient, so only looking at long-standing trends
in sports to give you an outlook for future performance is usually a
redundant issue. College sports are an even worse outlier for trend analysis
than professional sports, as good teams get gutted in the draft and new
freshmen are brought in as replacements the following year. Even systems
change. As a sports bettor you must constantly be evolving and remain up
to date on all transfers and acquisitions by teams in the leagues you are
wagering on. As a result, throwing out any plethoric or out of date
information regarding betting trends is essential, and keeps your current
trend analysis on point.
The second disadvantage of relying on trend betting, and perhaps the
more important one, is that sportsbooks react and adapt swiftly to any
significant trends. If a series of games has gone 11–2 to the over in the last
13 games played, the books will adjust and add additional points to the total
being posted. If a total keeps hitting under the posted line, expect that points
total to be shaved by at least a couple of points as the books look to redress
the balance. The strength of casinos and bookies throughout the years is that
they have always adapted. And fast. All that lush carpet and gold plating
you see in Las Vegas? That was paid for by gamblers and sports bettors
unwilling or unable to adapt. If a trend has too much back history and looks
to have gone on for an extended period of time, it is often worth avoiding,
as no doubt the books have caught up to it and already built that trend into
the line.
Overall, however, trends do play a part in sports handicapping and
often serve a useful purpose in any sharp bettor’s toolset. Short-term trends,
especially those referred to as “streaks”, are extremely useful in
handicapping particular sporting events. It is usually unwise to stand in
front of a notably strong short-term trend, the Brooklyn Nets going 9–0
ATS – against the spread – in their last nine games for example. No matter
how good your numbers may look from betting the opposing side, strong
streaks like the one above should give you some pause for thought as “hot”
teams can often overcome straightforward statistical data .
The other point about streaks is that if you are going to bet them, it is
nearly always better to bet ON a streak rather than against one. It is
common nature to assume a betting trend won’t continue indefinitely, a
concept often discussed as part of the “gambler’s fallacy” condition. While
this is somewhat true and streaks can’t continue without end, they CAN
continue for an extremely long period during which time your betting
bankroll may have evaporated if you had chosen to bet against said streak!
A few years ago, a friend famously told me that he was going to start fading
the Miami Heat’s 15–0 win streak as he didn’t believe it could continue. I
reminded him of the fallacy above but he remained undeterred assuring me
it was a sound betting strategy as the books had overvalued the Miami Heat,
especially since they were now such heavy favorites going into every game.
He rationalized he would be able to take advantage of the soft numbers
being offered up by the sportsbooks and make a handsome profit in the
process. While on the surface this strategy seemed sound and the posted
lines were indeed “soft” on the Heat’s opposition, it ended up costing him a
lot of his betting bankroll fading the Heat that year. The Miami Heat ended
up winning a further 12 games that season and finished their streak going
27–0, an amazing achievement overall. Needless to say, he was not one of
the people celebrating their incredible success that year! Always remember,
betting ON a streak only requires you to lose once to end it, whereas betting
AGAINST a streak you could lose multiple games before it finally ends.
In summary, trends can be a great utility that bettors can draw upon to
enhance their betting knowledge and their ability to handicap games.
However, they cannot be solely relied upon to predict winners and should
be used more as an auxiliary betting tool, rather than as a primary one.
 Principle Four
7. Understanding Situations

Situations, or “spots,” are handicapping terms for a particular edge that may
occur in a game, outside of the usual power rankings, trends, and so on.
While they are related to trends in determining how a team performs in a
particular spot, they do differ somewhat as they are usually a lot more
specific to the situation in which the team currently finds itself in, as
opposed to any previous outcomes that may have happened.
Situational spots can cover a variety of angles. Famous ones, such as
fading the defending champs in the opening game of a new season have
been profitable in the past but are widely known now, leading to little, if
any, edge. “Must-win” games are another situational factor that that is often
overused by the public. Generating these kinds of situational spots for your
handicapping is often superfluous as nowadays every casual sports fan
around a water cooler is talking about them.
Big in-division rivalries also constitute a “spot” as the public often
believes teams like the New York Jets always play the New England
Patriots hard because of their long established in-division rivalry. On the
surface, this may seem as good of an incentive as any for the Jets to not
only cover the spread, but possibly win the game outright.
Yet another common situational angle is the infamous “revenge” spot.
This occurs when a team who was beaten by a rival previously entertains
that team for a second time in the season. In stronger revenge angles, the
first loss was usually by blowout and the return game is more than likely to
be in the loser’s backyard. Another prominent angle to examine is whether
or not it was the favorite that was beaten the first time around. Whatever the
details of the revenge spot in question, some of these games have been
shown to be profitable for sports bettors in the past. For example, a great
revenge situational angle happened during the 2015/2016 NFL Season in
the NFC South division.
In week 14 of the regular season, in-division rivals, the Atlanta
Falcons, travelled to the Bank of America Stadium to take on the NFC
leading Carolina Panthers. While the Panthers were strongly favored for the
game, being undefeated, it was expected to be reasonably close as both
teams had a fierce rivalry ensuing because of their in-division status and
playoff aspirations – being first and second in the division respectively.
However, the game was anything but close as the number one seeded
Panthers routed the Falcons 38–0 and cemented their claim as the best team
in the NFC. The return game was scheduled for just two weeks later at the
Georgia Dome in Atlanta and after such a quick turnaround, the public
expected a very similar result to the first game. This scenario set up a prime
situational angle for sports bettors.
Big in-division rivalry game. Check. Coming off a blowout loss.
Check. Returning home. Check. Even though power rankings and statistical
data suggested Carolina was clearly the better side in this matchup,
motivation and strong situational aspects clearly favored Atlanta in this
game. And that’s exactly the way the game played out. The Atlanta Falcons
got reprisal for their earlier defeat and ended the Carolina Panthers perfect
season with a 20–13 win in Atlanta. These types of revenge spot angle
games can be very profitable for sports bettors, but it must be noted that
they are a lot rarer than they would at first appear, and should only be used
in the strongest situations.
The main problem with the situational angles expressed above, and
why they are usually of questionable value, is that they are already built
into the line. The bookmakers know the added importance for team A over
team B. They know of the fierce rivalry between in-division opponents and
they also know of any and all revenge factors that might be motivating
either team. In short, you are getting little to no value off the strength of
these so-called situational spots based solely on their value alone. This is
not to say you shouldn’t play those revenge or spot angles you feel strongly
about. Just make sure to back up your situational opinions with other
relevant data that supports it also.
One situational angle that can be profitable long-term, however, if
used correctly, is scheduling spots. These are different from revenge spots
in that they happen at a variety of times during the regular season due to
various scheduling dynamics. Paying close attention to the upcoming
schedule in most sports can pay massive dividends to the astute sports
bettor.
The first scheduling situation is what is called the “returning home”
scheduling dynamic. This applies to MLB and NBA most strongly where
daily back-to-back games are common. If a team is coming off a successful
road trip, there is usually a “hangover” feel in the first game played after
returning home. This could be due to a number of factors. Travel fatigue,
short turnaround between games, or simply returning home to players’
families and loved ones (after all, these athletes are only human). Any of
these influences could have an impact on the game, and more importantly,
on the spread or run line. Playing the away underdog in these spots has been
shown over time to be an extremely positive EV play.
Another extremely good situational angle to play on is the “squeeze
spot.” Squeeze spots occur when a strong team is scheduled to play a
relatively weak team in-between two important games or two strong teams.
Let’s say for example the San Antonio Spurs are due to play the Minnesota
Timberwolves on a Wednesday in early April. After having just come off a
hard-fought win over the Golden State Warriors in the previous game, their
subsequent game after Minnesota is against the second seeded Oklahoma
City Thunder. This is a must-win game for San Antonio as they are
currently battling the Thunder for that coveted second seed in the Western
Conference. The question for bettors is how much focus will San Antonio
have going into the Minnesota game knowing OKC is up next? While they
are the much better team and will more than likely win the game outright,
will they have the necessary motivation to make it a blowout and cover the
high 13- or 14- point spread? The value answer is usually no. San Antonio’s
focus after beating Golden State, despite what they may say outwardly in
the media, will be firmly set on defeating their second seeded rivals, the
Oklahoma City Thunder, and they will likely just be going through the
motions in trying to get a routine win against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
This is a prime example of a situational squeeze spot. These types of
scheduling spots have been very profitable for sharp sports bettors over an
extended number of seasons and continue to be so. Utilizing these kinds of
situational approaches long-term can be very profitable to your overall
betting bankroll.
In conclusion, most situation spots are generally overrated as a rule,
especially in terms of home divisional underdogs and revenge angles, as the
bookmakers have already built these motivational factors into the line.
“Must-win games” are a prime example of this as the public usually buys
into the much advertised hype of these situational games and blindly backs
the team that needs to win outright. Yet, if the team in question was truly a
contender, they usually wouldn’t find themselves in a must-win spot to
begin with! Because of this you often get a much softer line on the team
who won previously or who are in a more comfortable position in the
rankings table. These media-hyped versions of situational angles, while not
always a bad play, are vastly overused and generally aren’t worth your
serious consideration as a sports bettor unless they are backed by other
significant factors too.
However, in a more positive light, there are edges to be gained in
terms of playing pinpoint scheduling spots, specifically both the returning
home and squeeze spots described above. These spots, if played correctly,
can give you a significant advantage over the more casual players who
simply see the better team and bet blindly, pushing up the line value on
these games. Knowing when to pull the trigger on these situation games
will see your win percentage increase exponentially.
 Principle Five
8. Understanding Line Moves

Line moves are the amount of cents (if using American odds) or points that
the line has moved over a period of time. This could either be on the spread,
the moneyline, or both. As an example, the Philadelphia Phillies may open
up (the opening line that the bookmakers set the game at) at -125. If either
the public or sharp bettors bet strongly on the Phillies, or against them, and
the line moves in either direction, this is called a line move. Line moves are
often the most important indicator in identifying if there is any potential
sharp action on a game.
Paying attention to and following line movements is a fundamental
aspect of becoming a successful sports bettor. If you are perceptive and alert
to sudden changes in line movement, and at what juncture, it can tell you
which teams sharp bettors and syndicates are wagering on and which they
are looking to fade. Alternatively, they can highlight aspects of your own
handicapping that you may have overlooked.
Let’s say hypothetically your power rankings have the Boston Red
Sox routing the Tampa Bay Rays in Boston tonight. Your numbers have
Boston winning by a fairly wide margin. After checking any corresponding
trends to back up your own initial power rankings, you discover that Rick
Porcello, the Red Sox pitcher is 8–1 in his last nine games at home and is
pitching lights out baseball. Compare this to Chris Archer of the Tampa Bay
Rays, who is just 2–12 when pitching at Boston’s Fenway Park and is
coming off a three game losing streak and everything is pointing to a
comprehensive Boston victory. Taking these factors into account, the
bookmakers open the line at Boston -155. Immediately the line gets bet
down to Boston -130. Why was this? All of your own power rankings and
trend research analysis shows you that Boston is the right side in this
matchup. Why then has Tampa Bay been bet on so strongly to win, and so
quickly, in what seems to be more than a simple false steam move (a false
line that sharp bettors originate in order to move a line in order to come
back later and get the best possible number on the opposing team)? It is
often wise in these instances to go back and re-check your data for any
inconsistencies or factors that you may have missed the first time around.
Maybe there was a late roster change you weren’t aware of, or the pitcher is
carrying a knock (injury). Whatever the reason, more than any other factor,
line movement can show you when NOT to bet a game, and is often more
useful as a warning system rather than as a straight bet on system. Using it
effectively will radically impact your overall chances of being successful
long-term and help keep you away from potential “trap” games.
These phenomenon known as “trap games” or “trap lines” are an
interesting addition to conversations about line movement. So-called trap
lines are when a posted line on a game looks almost too good to be true. For
example, in the NFL, a top power-ranked Arizona Cardinals team heading
into Buffalo to take on a dysfunctional 0–2 Buffalo Bills team and only
laying 4 points. Seems like easy money, right? Not so fast. Some sports
bettors believe wholeheartedly in trap lines, like the example above, often
hypothesizing that the bookmakers know something we the public don’t and
it’s an obvious “trap” to lure unwary bettors. Other sports bettors clash with
this argument, stating we all get the same information as the books do and
there is no such thing as a trap line. The truth is often a mixture of both.
While there are no such things as trap lines per se, there are lines that
highlight certain red flags on a game that could benefit from deeper analysis
on the part of the handicapper. If a game looks too good to be true, it is
often best to step back, re-evaluate, and look in greater detail at the game in
question. Whatever the reason may be for the perplexing line, however, if a
so-called trap game line makes you nervous and you can’t find a reason to
explain the line, it is always better to take a more cautious approach and
stay clear of the game entirely. Why risk money due to being unsure?
Ultimately, for every bettor who calls one of these trap games correctly and
looks like a genius, there are at least the same number of bettors who see
their home underdog pick get routed by 30+ points and their trap game
theory go up in smoke.
Like any other successful facet of handicapping and sports betting,
line movements can enhance your overall betting ability by indicating
where other sharp money has gone on a game. This line movement could
support your own conclusions and opinions on a game or go against them.
If the money goes against you, it is often best to step back and try to
analyze exactly why the line moved against you. Was it a genuine move or
a false steam position? Maybe there were other factors you overlooked.
Perhaps there was a significant situational angle you weren’t aware of
previously in your approach to handicapping the game. Maybe the starting
pitcher/goaltender plays particularly under par during early throw-in games
or they have a poor record coming off of a quality start in their last
appearance. Whatever the reason may be, reading the line movements on a
game that has moved against you effectively enables you to re-analyze the
game and make corrections as necessary to your previous judgment.
After all this, if you still believe you have the right side after
analyzing the line movement, then remember you are now getting extra
value on the side you like, something often hard to come by in the world of
sports betting. Alternatively, if after your already previous calculations on a
game, the line movement goes in the direction you perceive as the correct
side, then this reinforces your bet even further as the true “sharp” side of a
play. Either way, as we can see, line movement is incredibly useful in
determining whether or not you end up on a particular side of a game, or
whether you stay away from it entirely.
However, always be cautious when relying solely on line movements.
As highlighted previously, there are line movements known as “false
steam” which push the line in the opposite direction of where the sharps
ultimately intend on betting. With the advent of greater transparency in the
betting marketplace, many amateur and semi pro bettors follow online
sportsbook data and chase these steam movements in order to not only
follow the line movements, but bet sides who they believe the sharp bettors
are betting also. These bettors are often referred to as “steam chasers.”
These bettors look at online publicly available betting data boards (sports
insights for example provides a very good public betting analysis tool) and
see where any significant line movements have taken place on that days
slate of games. They will then piggyback this steam action and try to get
money down on the same side of a game as they believe the sharps are on.
To offset this strategy, and provide greater value for themselves and
their clients, sharp bettors often put some action on the opposite side of a
play they intend to bet on in order to get the line moving. Say, for example,
some sharp bettors like the Arizona Diamondbacks to beat the New York
Yankees. Oftentimes these sharps will bet the New York side of the play to
get the line moving initially in their favor, in which case steam chasers will
then follow that initial action and drive up the price on Arizona even higher.
This is because the steam chasers believe that the sharps like and are betting
on New York to win due to the initial line movement. The fact is however
that the sharps are simply waiting for enough betting action to come in on
New York that the price on Arizona becomes even greater value and they
can then come in and bet the other side strongly, taking the maximum
possible value from the play.
The sharps will usually come in just before game time when the line is
at its highest and bet the side they like, in this case Arizona, big, leaving no
time for the steam chasers to buy back or hedge out of their wager. This
strategy by the sharp bettors and syndicates, time and again, leads to a lot of
amateur and semi pro bettors getting exposed on their positions late,
inevitably leading them to lose their bankrolls long-term, as often they are
simply on the negative EV side of a play. While it is often difficult for
beginners and even semi pros to determine exactly which line is true steam
and which is false, trusting in your initial power rankings and trend analysis
will often help you distinguish the fact from the fiction when evaluating any
notable line movements.
Overall, line movements can be an incredibly useful tool to use in
your handicapping approach to betting on games, provided you use them
wisely. Always base everything off your own power rankings first and use
line movements as an additional tool to supplement this data. With your
own numbers combined, line movement analysis can be a powerful tool in
the arsenal of a successful handicapper.
 Principle Six
9. Understanding Consensus Data

Consensus data is a kind of poll that is a common tool for seeing who the
public likes in any particular matchup. Consensus data is primarily seen on
a variety of public sports sites such as ESPN, Yahoo Sports, and Covers,
among many others. These sites let you see who the public (at least users on
that specific site) favor to win a particular matchup. Usually the number of
people on these sites numbers in the thousands, however, the data is
presented in percentage terms. Opening up the Yahoo Sports app for
example and clicking on a baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals
and the Pittsburgh Pirates would allow you to see something along the lines
of STL-72 percent / PIT-28 percent. This is the percentage breakdown of all
the users who like either team to win that individual matchup straight up.
Where consensus data plays an important part in the role of sports
betting is the clear insight it gives into which way the public is leaning on a
particular game. Consensus data differs from line movement data in the fact
that there is very little subterfuge in terms of consensus data. While line
movements show how the public has actually bet, or what the percentage of
wagers have been on a particular team, they are at risk of manipulation by
syndicates and sharp bettors as discussed in the previous chapter .
Consensus data simply shows the thoughts and opinions of amateur
bettors, and indeed the general public, without any actual betting taking
place. Hence, there is no need for any market manipulation on the part of
the sharps. Consensus data can be an extremely useful tool for a sports
bettor because it allows you to see any prospective value there may be on a
side. More importantly, it also allows you to spot any potential trap games
and stale lines that may be on the board. For instance, if 82 percent of the
public believe the St. Louis Cardinals to be the right side of a game, why
then has the line on the game dropped from St. Louis -145 down to -125?
You can use consensus data like this to show you where discrepancies
have arisen between the bookmakers posted lines and public opinion, very
much like you can in line movement, and how to take advantage of them.
Consensus data simply gives you a crystal clear picture of general public
opinion. If Covers or Yahoo Sports show that 77 percent of people like the
Denver Broncos this week to win via a “pick ’em” game, then chances are
if you were to ask 100 random people on a busy San Francisco or New York
main street what their thoughts were on the game, it would be reasonable to
assume that around 75 to 80 of them would also pick the Denver Broncos to
win that game straight up. Consensus data at its core is simply a poll of
basic sports fans’ opinions.
Users who want to post their own thoughts on games can do so at any
of the above sites and this has been a common practice now for the last
number of years. This is especially true on sites like the aforementioned
Covers and Yahoo Sports, where the actual betting lines are posted as well
as simply a straight pick. This brings greater integration for the general
public to basic betting terminology and makes it easier for sports bettors to
interpret that percentage data and the general public’s thoughts on the game
also.
As stated, the positive aspects to consensus data over line movement
data is in its clarity on public opinion concerning sports games. No fake
moves or manipulations, just clear data. However, there are disadvantages
to using consensus data too. Its main disadvantage is in its propensity for
inaccuracy. Opinions change and consensus data has very little input from
sharp sports bettors who understand line movement or the value of points
on the spread. What consensus data ultimately consists of is somewhat
limited sports opinions from casual fans who know very little about the
nature of positive EV or overall betting value. This leaves consensus data
open to inconsistency as the vast majority of consensus data is derived from
non-sports bettors unaware of when a line has moved too far in one
direction or when the value on a side is simply gone. Laying -180 or -220 to
a casual fan is irrelevant. They believe Team A will win no matter what the
price is, which is (or at least should be!) a vastly different standpoint from
that of a professional handicapper and sports bettor.
The other major drawback of consensus data is of course fan opinions.
Heart rules head in the majority of public choice and if a local home town
team is playing a hated rival, then chances are most fans will opt for the
team they want to win, rather than looking at the game more objectively.
However, utilizing a more betting orientated sports site like Covers or
Vegas Insiders minimizes this risk somewhat, as these websites are geared
more toward actual sports bettors, both amateur and professional, rather
than fans. The consensus data on these sites therefore are more likely to be
comprised of more informed betting opinions concerning both value on a
game and any positive or negative EV. On these sites, in general, but not
always, consensus data and percentage line movement will mirror each
other relatively closely, as a lot of the same people who take part in
consensus data polls on these sites will also put actual money on the game
itself, hence also driving up the betting percentage line.
Overall, having access to consensus data, especially in conjunction
with line movement data, gives a sharp handicapper a greater edge in
determining where smart money is going on a particular game, and the
ability to adjust their position accordingly.
 Part Three

Specialization
 10. Understanding Premium
and Free Picks

In today’s colossal worldwide betting industry, there are thousands upon

thousands of betting-orientated consulting services offering, what they
proclaim at least, to be extremely profitable sports selection services. In the
last number of years with the advent of social media, these pick services
have multiplied by an even greater number. Twitter especially has a large
number of “expert” sports services offering thousands of picks on an almost
daily basis. With all of this freely available information in circulation, how
is it possible to distinguish who can legitimately win you money from those
who are simply wasting your time?
First off, their overall record should tell you a lot. While seemingly a
pretty straight-forward stat in terms of distinguishing winning handicappers
from dart throwers, it can be difficult to differentiate between truthful
records and bogus ones with this stat alone. This is because sports betting
on the whole is challenging and people or groups that claim they are
making easy money doing it are usually scammers. Genuine sports
consulting services are operating in the 54 to 57 percent win range, which
over the long-term is significant. Fraudulent services often claim upwards
of 70 percent, and sometimes even higher. While it is possible in the short-
term to hit those kinds of percentages, long-term it is simply impossible. So
always pay close attention to what betting services are claiming their win
rate percentage is. It is worth noting also, however, that in the past decade
fraudulent sports consulting services are growing ever more aware of their
seemingly impossible win percentages and have “massaged” their numbers
back down to a much more reasonable 60 to 65 percent. This is in order to
give the appearance of being genuine. Always do due diligence when
verifying a handicapper’s record and be careful of choosing short-term
streaks over long-term consistency.
Secondly, check their authenticity. With the popularity of sports
betting in recent years, there are now numerous reputable websites that
track and verify sports bettors’ win/loss records. These include websites
such as Pickmonitor, CappedIn, and Cappertek, among many others.
Websites such as these show rankings based on handicapper performance
and are very easy to use for any prospective customer who is looking to buy
reliable sports pick information from a top handicapper. Picks on these sites
are always made before game time, and once chosen are locked in until
after the game has finished making it extremely difficult to falsify records.
Results are then displayed along with how profitable that handicapper has
been up to that point.
Achieving a high ranking on these websites gives a handicapper an
enormous advantage in the marketplace as they can openly show their
verified record to any prospective clients eager to share in their profitable
knowledge. On the other hand, if you were to use a social media site like
Twitter for example, it is far more likely you will see many more unverified
records being displayed. “We went 3–0 last night” or “We’re 19–4 in our
last 23 NBA games.” While this is not to say these records are always false,
it is nevertheless an easy claim to make without having to provide any
proof. Always be cautious at the end of the day as it is your money at risk.
Verified records are always a much safer bet than unverified ones and show
that handicappers who are willing to be recorded on these tracking sites are
confident of their win/loss record and their ability to make money for their
clients over the long-term.
These two factors should enable you to distinguish pretty accurately
those sports picks that are profitable from those that aren’t. Employ them
always when deciding whether to choose a particular handicapper or not .
The first option for anyone interested in getting sports picks from a
third party source is the premium subscription market. There are some very
profitable premium sports betting subscription services out there, along
with, as always, some less than stellar performers. As always, the onus is on
you as a customer to employ due diligence in vetting any prospective
handicapping company and minimize the risk to your betting bankroll.
Remember also that even if a handicapper is profitable over a prolonged
period, and has shown a good effective win ratio on their picks, it may still
prove to be a poor investment for you as a customer in the long-term. This
is because of two components.
First, you must be aware of the time of release for a handicapper’s
plays. They might release a game at 3 pm EST when the line on a game was
-121. You then log on later to check what posted plays they’ve put up and
the line may have moved to -145 or even higher. This could be due to either
a large number of followers also on the same play or new information being
available. Either way, you’ve lost an incredible amount of value on the
game, while the handicapper has it officially recorded as a -121 play. If the
pick were to lose, this is the value they would assign to it, not the higher
-145 value.
Second, and most importantly, you must factor in the monetary cost of
the handicapper’s picks (usually in the range of $750 to $1,000 per season
for an established handicapper’s plays). This pushes your breakeven point
even higher as you look to overcome the initial financial outlay of that
season’s picks, something the handicapper himself can afford to overlook in
his official profit/loss record. Most bettors simply don’t bet $500 to $1,000
per game and so this initial investment is an important consideration to
make from the start. Is your unit size large enough so that the investment
won’t interfere with the overall breakeven win percentage? If you find your
units per game are in the $20 to $50 amount, than paying $1,000 for a
season’s worth of picks may be a poor investment for you, even if the picks
themselves are actually profitable.
These two extremely significant factors when deciding whether or not
to purchase paid sports picks can push a normal breakeven point of 52.4
percent, all the way up to 56 percent or higher, depending on unit amount
and market reaction. This can lead to what initially seems like a good
investment to be an acutely substandard one.
The second option when choosing sports picks is the free pick market.
Everybody has opinions and for sports bettors these usually come across as
free picks or “leans.” Most premium sports handicapping sites offer free
picks on their websites in addition to their paid premium ones, so potential
clients can try their service for free before committing to an extended
season-long engagement. These freely available picks are useful also to see
how professional bettors think, as most picks are accompanied by a
breakdown of the game in question, enhancing your own betting acumen in
the process. Along with the more established handicapping companies,
many free picks can also be found on social media sites such as Twitter and
Facebook. There are many Facebook sports betting groups where both
amateur and professional sports bettors can discuss games and leans in an
open and friendly environment. These are especially useful to amateur
bettors who can bounce ideas off some of the more seasoned and
experienced bettors and gain some valuable insight. Twitter is similar, but
with the minimized word count in effect, picks aren’t usually accompanied
by a breakdown, but can still be useful in tracking a handicapper’s win/loss
record.
Both free picks and premium picks can be a profitable resource that
can be drawn upon to enhance a sports bettor’s bankroll, provided of course
that caution is utilized. Do your research and vet any prospective
handicappers thoroughly before subscribing and putting your own bankroll
at risk. While there are numerous solid handicappers who consistently turn
a profit for their clients, there are many more “scamdicappers” out there
who don’t deserve your attention, never mind your money. Trusting your
research and instincts should allow you to spot the fake handicappers from
the ones who can make you real money.
 11. Understanding NFL

Despite what popular culture and certain Kevin Costner movies may have
us believe, it is American football and not baseball that is America’s
favorite pastime. Current estimates suggest that in 2015 the NFL was worth
somewhere in the region of $63 billion. This is nearly double the figure of
what MLB and NBA are worth, at approximately $36 billion and $33
billion respectively, and a lot more than America’s fourth sport, NHL,
clocking in at a mere $15 billion. This NFL figure rises even further when
factoring in all the supplementary income NFL brings: NFL house and
tailgate parties (name one friend who throws a house party for a Monday
night MLB game for example), merchandising, licensing, and more
importantly for us, sports betting. On average, $95 billion is wagered on
American football in the USA each season, with the majority of that on
NFL. That is significantly more than what the NFL itself is worth as a
whole and is almost as much as the NFL and MLB combined net worth.
While gambling may currently be illegal in the vast majority of states, it
doesn’t seem to be stopping those people who want to bet from putting
down wagers on the NFL on a weekly basis. With all of this betting action
on NFL coming in from the public, it is prudent for a professional sports
bettor to understand how to maximize betting potential in this lucrative
market.
As we can see, NFL betting dwarfs every other type of betting by both
wager count and money in the United States, and this is valuable
information for sports bettors to know as NFL is generally the only sport
where public money outweighs sharp money by a significant margin. On
any daily NBA, MLB, or NHL game, lines move because of sharp money
being wagered, but NFL differs in this regard. When lines move in the NFL,
it is predominantly public money that is behind the move. Therefore,
handicapping NFL more than any other sport requires a fundamental
understanding of public perception. Teams seldom look either as good as
their last game, or as bad, but this reality rarely stops the public from
betting big on what they saw in the previous week. If one team looked like
world beaters and the other team looked abysmal, this perception will then
be factored into the next game by the general public. This overreaction
consequently shows up in lines like the Denver Broncos being -27.5 point
favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars a few seasons ago, an absolutely
enormous spread line for an NFL game. Massive overreactions like this as
to what happened in the previous week are ones professional bettors can
make sure to take full advantage of. Look for these types of situations in the
NFL where teams looked either particularly good the previous week or
particularly bad, as generally they won’t perform to that same level the
following week.
Another key factor to look for when betting NFL is exactly when the
lines move. Sharp bettors generally bet either early or very late, especially
if they expect the line to move in their favor due to public money. Lines that
move significantly on a Monday or early Tuesday are down largely due to
professional action. Targeting line movement like this, while there may still
be some early discrepancies in the posted numbers, can be very
advantageous to a perceptive bettor. Other early line moves in the week are
usually placed on favorites that the professional bettors expect the public to
come in on later in the week. This ensures the pros get the best possible
number before the line is driven up by day of game. However, be cautious
in following this approach as early sharp line movement doesn’t necessarily
mean that’s the side the pros like in the game. Often, it could just be an
insurance move or a wager made to possibly take advantage of a potential
“middle” situation. Professional sports bettors often look for insurance
moves or middling situations like these so they can simply get the best of
the number and possibly come back in on the other side later in the week. A
“middle” situation arises when a line has moved so much that the potential
exists for the final score to fall right in the middle of the opening line and
the current spread. This could potentially then win you both sides of the
wager if you were shrewd enough to catch both numbers.
 Say, for example, on Tuesday morning you saw the Denver Broncos at
-2 against the Baltimore Ravens. You bet this line early knowing the public
will come in strongly by game time on the Denver Broncos side of the play
and the line will most likely move up accordingly. Your assumptions prove
accurate and by kickoff the line is now Denver -5. Usually a bettor will just
be happy with the fact they got to the line early, thereby greatly enhancing
their overall positive EV and chance of winning the bet. However, if the
line has moved a great deal, as in the example above and ESPECIALLY
through the key number of three (check back in the teaser section of
Chapter 3 for further explanations of key numbers), then the pros often
middle the situation and end up taking Baltimore +5 at game time as well.
This is because a strong opportunity exists in this scenario to win both
sides of the play. For instance, if Denver wins by three or four points, a very
possible outcome in this case, then both tickets will cash. On top of this,
your risk is minimal as one of the two tickets has to cash regardless of what
happens. While not all early line movement is a potential middle situation
like the one above, mostly occurring due to professional bettors simply
looking for the best of the number, betting early overall should enhance
your long-term betting bottom line in the NFL. This is especially true if you
can find potentially lucrative middle situations like the one previously
discussed.
Another factor to consider in NFL betting is the value of injuries.
With NFL being America’s most popular sport, it is inevitable also that it
takes up the majority of airtime on national sports media during the course
of its season. Because of the amount of news coverage NFL garners, it is
often subject to mild sensationalism on the media’s part where they take an
otherwise regular news story and blow it up so it affects the betting market
also. Take for example a player like Calvin Johnson Jr., aka “Megatron,”
who was an unbridled superstar for his team, the Detroit Lions, for the
majority of his career. When he got injured a few seasons ago and major
sports outlets caught news of this, it was seen as if the Detroit Lions’ season
might also be over, as well as their talisman wide receiver’s. Talk was
abound in the media about the Detroit Lions’ diminishing playoff chances
because of the high profile injury and the lines being posted on their
upcoming games having to be adjusted significantly to reflect the loss of a
player of Johnson’s caliber.
 In reality however, as much as Calvin Johnson was a superstar and an
extremely gifted player, his injury was simply blown way out of proportion
by sports news outlets as it related to his team’s chances of a future playoff
spot, or any upcoming point spreads. Players outside of the quarterback
position are always overrated in terms of their impact to the point spread on
a game, and Johnson, as good as he was, likely only affected the point
spread by between 0.5 and 1 point max, depending on the relative capability
of the opposition’s rush defense. This is a far cry from what the media
foretold – that the Lions were basically half as good a team now without
their VIP player. Always be aware of situations like this as a handicapper,
especially in overvaluing prominent injuries, and take full advantage of any
lines where the public has overcompensated for a star player’s absence.
The final point about handicapping NFL successfully is the ability to
utilize teasers effectively. We have already discussed what a teaser is and
how to employ them productively back in Chapter 3 , so we will not retread
unnecessary ground here. Suffice it to say that while teasers are not unique
to NFL betting, being used in basketball and college football also, NFL
teasers are by far the most profitable form of the bet. Using them in select
spots as part of your overall NFL betting portfolio can be a very profitable
long-term betting strategy, along with all of the other angles we have
discussed here.
 12. Understanding MLB

For most professional sports bettors, MLB is the equivalent of the daily
nine to five grind. It’s the place where the majority of your revenue stream
comes from and the one sport you really need to be on top of if you want to
seriously consider making sports betting a full-time career. This is because
MLB is constant action throughout a large part of the calendar year. From
spring training in March, right through to the pennants and World Series in
October, MLB provides almost daily action for bettors with an inordinately
high number of games to choose from on any given day. Compare this with
the NFL which runs through September and curtails its action come
January, and the advantage for sports bettors in terms of betting MLB
becomes clear.
In general, MLB betting is a lot more statistical than its NFL
counterpart. Whereas scheduling and spot dynamics are an important
feature in determining your handicapping approach in regards to an NFL
game, even though they can be factored into MLB wagering also, they are
not as crucial to the overall handicapping of the game. What is crucial,
however, in handicapping MLB is knowing and understanding the varying
factors on how exactly baseball games are won and lost. Such terms as
ERA, WHIP, OBP, and K ratio are just some of the fundamental aspects of
handicapping MLB that you must become aware of if you intend to succeed
at becoming a professional MLB sports bettor.
A great place to start in understanding these terms further are websites
such as Fangraphs.com and Baseball-reference.com , both of which analyze
baseball analytics in great detail and are highly recommended. Spend some
time understanding this data and the sabermetrics behind it because this is
the fuel that baseball is driven on. For anyone who has ever seen the movie
Moneyball with Brad Pitt, you should get a clear idea of what we mean
here. While all of this information might initially appear daunting, once you
get to understand the terms themselves they become quite clear (for
instance, K ratio is used to work out how frequently a batter strikes out and
his ability to make contact). Easy! Below are some aspects of sabermetrics
that give an example of the kinds of factors to look for each day before
betting on MLB.
First and foremost in successfully handicapping MLB, you must look
at the two starting pitchers for each team. The most basic stat in
determining a pitcher’s relative quality is ERA. ERA stands for “earned
runs average” and shows how many runs a pitcher has given up, on average,
over the course of the season. A low ERA is good, a high ERA is bad. So
when evaluating a particular matchup, look at both pitchers respective
ERA’s and what that ERA is in both their last few games and against the
opposing team in question. A starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates for
example might have a career ERA of 3.53, which is pretty good. However,
looking closer might reveal in his last five games at home, his ERA goes up
to 5.65, or that against the St. Louis Cardinals, a team he has particularly
struggled with in the past, his ERA goes up to 6.94. These are additional
factors that you must look at closely and not simply go with the first initial
number of who has the better straight up ERA.
Another factor to consider when evaluating a pitcher’s relative merit
heading into a game is WHIP. WHIP is a much more accurate statistic for
gauging prospective pitchers against one another than simply using ERA.
However, combining WHIP and ERA gives you a much clearer picture
when evaluating a pitcher’s overall effectiveness. The acronym WHIP
stands for “walks plus hits per innings pitched” and is a very useful
sabermetric found on nearly every major sports website that covers
baseball. While ERA is a straightforward stat designed to show simply the
number of runs a pitcher gives up, WHIP delves deeper, disclosing in an
accurate number the amount of walks and hits the pitcher has allowed in
each inning they have been in action .
This stat more accurately reflects a pitcher’s overall capability than
simply using ERA on its own. The reason for this is a pitcher may throw 25
times plus in a single inning, giving up a multitude of hits and walks
leading to a bases loaded scenario, and yet still get a 0 ERA if his team
manages not to give up a run. This would not be the case in terms of his
WHIP statistic however. Every hit and walk that was given up to the
opposition would be recorded, unlike ERA. This is the reason WHIP is
more often used by handicappers than ERA is, however, using both stats
combined gives the clearest possible picture. As a general indicator, a
WHIP score in the low ones is considered excellent over the course of a
season and sub-one is fantastic. Remember to always compare recent
history (10 games or less) with season or career-long stats concerning ERA
and WHIP to give the clearest possible data when determining a pitcher’s
overall strengths.
These are the two most important sabermetrics to use when evaluating
pitchers from a handicappers point of view. Now, let’s focus on the second
most important aspect of handicapping baseball, the bullpen.
How often have you had a wager in MLB that looks like a surefire
winner for 90 percent of the game, only to blowup in your face in the
bottom of the ninth inning due to a shaky bullpen? Unfortunately, this is
quite common in baseball betting, whether it is the seventh, eighth, or ninth
inning that is the culprit. Once that starting pitcher goes out and the relief
and closing pitchers come in, it’s anybody’s game. Right? Well, not always.
While handicapping a team’s bullpen may be challenging, there are certain
factors you can look to in helping you eliminate some of the risk going into
the final few innings.
The first thing to look at is the overall depth of the bullpen. How
much cover has the team you are betting on got in terms of relief pitchers?
Teams with deeper rotations and an abundance of both left- and right-
handed pitchers tend to perform better in the closing innings than those with
weaker or smaller bullpens. Having the ability to manage both matchups
and fatigue with a strong bullpen gives teams a huge edge in closing out
tight games over those with shallower bullpens .
The next factor to consider in handicapping the bullpen is the
manager’s historic use of it. Some managers are more aggressive in their
use of the bullpen than others. Some managers keep faith with a starting
pitcher even when they’re looking shaky on the mound, while others will
switch out for the bullpen at the first sign of trouble. Finding out the
mentality of a particular manager who you’re either betting on or against
can be key to understanding how important the bullpen’s role will be in the
upcoming game.
 The final factor to consider when analyzing the strength of the bullpen
is recent form. This ties into our first two points about depth and
aggressiveness, and looks at how often the bullpen has been utilized in the
previous five to 10 games and how it fared in those situations. If they have
come up against a big-hitting team, the starting pitchers did some light
innings or the bullpen overall has struggled recently, then that bullpen may
be a liability going into the final stretch of the next game depending on the
team’s overall depth.
These three factors concerning the bullpen should enable you to get
that extra edge when determining how much value there is on a particular
baseball game, and also make you a bit more confident heading into the
final innings.
The next aspect to consider when evaluating which games to wager on
in MLB is the overall offensive structure of a team. Although this aspect is
far less important than evaluating starting pitching and a team’s bullpen, it
is still fairly significant as far as MLB handicapping goes. Hitting statistics,
like the ones discussed below, will help you in narrowing down the
selections you have already chosen from your earlier pitching and bullpen
handicapping assessment.
Hitting is an important factor in baseball for obvious reasons. The
more a team hits, the more likely it is that they score; hence the higher the
probability of them winning the game. However, more often than not, a
batters relevance to the outcome of a game is generally overrated, no matter
how much of a “star” they may be. As with high-profile NFL injuries, this
is due in part to talk radio and other media outlets glamorizing power hitters
who are more easily accessible as news stories than pitchers who can throw
a solid, low-scoring game. As stated, while not necessarily on the same
level in terms of handicapping importance as pitching is, batting statistics
are still a useful component to acquaint yourself with for your overall MLB
handicapping portfolio.
Primarily, the main things to look out for when evaluating a team’s
batting effectiveness are AVG (the player’s “batting average”) and OBP
(the player’s “on-base percentage”). These two fundamental offensive
statistics should be enough to tell you how capable a player is likely to be in
the upcoming game. Along with the aforementioned K ratio, these three
statistics should give you more than enough data to effectively evaluate any
batter’s strengths and weaknesses. Other aspects to also consider are SLG
(the player’s “slugging percentage”) and OPS (which is a combination of
both OBP and SLG percentages). While all of this statistical data may seem
a little overwhelming at first, all of it is readily available at any of the large
sports networks such as ESPN, among many others. Accustom yourself as
soon as possible to the various acronyms involved in handicapping the data,
and baseball-hitting statistics will become like second nature to you when
gauging a team’s offensive capabilities.
The final points to consider when handicapping baseball is exactly
what impact the stadium and weather conditions will have on the upcoming
game.
MLB stadiums have proven in the past to either favor hitters or
pitchers, either through sheer size or being more favorable to left-handed or
right-handed pitchers, or sometimes even more obscure factors than these.
While stadium factors themselves won’t heavily influence the outcome of a
game in general and aren’t to be solely relied upon, handicapping them may
still be enough to sway you either on to or off a game that you may have
liked previously. As an example of stadiums exhibiting particular trends,
hitter’s parks (high-scoring venues) include parks such as Coors Field in
Denver (its low air pressure and altitude tends to make balls travel farther)
and Fenway Park in Boston. In general, games in these venues tend to get
higher totals than other venues around the country. Pitcher’s parks (low-
scoring venues) include parks such as Petco Park in San Diego and PNC
Park in Pittsburgh. These parks generally favor pitchers and usually have
lower totals posted on them than those in other stadiums. Do your
homework concerning the relevant hit stats of various parks across the
country and softly weigh it into your overall MLB handicapping.
Weather can also play an important factor in handicapping baseball.
While many weather elements could potentially play a role in deciding the
outcome of a game, such as air pressure, humidity, and so on, only wind
direction and speed can seriously impact a game and so must be considered
carefully. Wind can adversely affect the outcome of a hit ball, anywhere
between 10 and 40 feet in extra distance depending on wind speed. And
while high winds usually concern totals betting rather than side, don’t be
too quick to overlook the betting potential of team betting during a high
speed wind game. A ground ball pitcher vs. a fly ball pitcher in this
scenario is just one matchup that effectively handicapping wind can lead
you to having an enormous advantage over the sportsbooks, so long as
you’ve done your research. Make sure and take full advantage of it!
These are just some of the strategies professional bettors use when
handicapping baseball for profit. Make them part of your repertoire as well
and baseball will soon become one of your favorite sports to handicap, not
just over the uneventful long summer months, but also over the course of
the calendar year as well.
 13. Understanding NBA

Like MLB, NBA constitutes a large portion of a serious sports bettor’s

yearly betting action. Starting in November and going right through the dog
days of summer at the end of June, NBA provides a multitude of betting
opportunities for over half the calendar year. In fact, by betting only MLB
and NBA you would almost have enough daily betting options to cover the
entire year without handicapping any other sport! Understanding both,
therefore, is imperative in terms of becoming a successful sports bettor.
Let’s now examine NBA in greater detail and the available betting
opportunities it presents.
First and foremost, let’s get the laborious information out of the way.
NBA for the betting masses is hard. While there are a small number of
handicappers and syndicates who excel at NBA, the vast majority find it a
tough sport to handicap, even some sharp bettors, as so many variables can
come into play in terms of the final score. Most professional handicappers
find focusing on NCAAB or NHL a better overall investment for their
bankroll than NBA as the variance isn’t as great, especially in NHL, while
the monetary rewards are the same. However, for those who do invest some
serious time in studying and handicapping NBA, the opportunities are
considerable and the rewards can be immense.
Now that the prohibitive advice is out of the way, the good news.
NBA can be beaten and there are multitudes of great betting opportunities
out there in which to do so! Let’s look at a few of the best ones.
First, betting totals. While side betting can be difficult in the NBA due
to the high variance in scoring (a double-digit deficit can be overturned
inside of just two minutes for example), total betting is generally a lot more
balanced (at least as balanced as betting on NBA can be). There are two
fundamental things you need to be aware of when handicapping NBA
totals – pace and offensive efficiency.
Pace, simply put, is how many possessions a team gets in an NBA
game. The higher the team’s pace value is, the more possessions that team
gets, hence the more up-tempo and high-scoring the game in question is
likely to be. When you have two such high-pace/ high-octane teams going
up against each other, say for example Golden State at Sacramento, then the
total posted by the books is likely to be high. A game involving San
Antonio and Dallas, however, two of the lowest ranked pace teams in the
league, would very likely be posted at a low total. While these pace
numbers do provide us with pieces of valuable information concerning a
team’s offensive capabilities, they don’t really help us to beat the posted
total at the sportsbook as the oddsmakers are sure to have already built that
information into the line. The games, however, that fall somewhere in-
between, for instance when a high-paced team like Washington comes up
against a low-paced team like Utah, are the kinds of matchups that can
often provide some solid value to the acute sports bettor. These are the
games where it is difficult to correctly predict how the game will go in
terms of which team will effectively control the pace, so the bookmakers
lines can often be a little wide, leading to some good betting opportunities.
Once you have your pace stats thoroughly analyzed and your potential
betting games circled, the next thing to look at when handicapping NBA
totals is OER – this stands for offensive efficiency rating. OER is tied into a
team’s pace numbers in that it shows how effective that team is in terms of
scoring during their time in possession. This is an extremely useful statistic
to use when handicapping NBA as it highlights wasted possessions in what
otherwise would appear initially to be a surefire “over” team. For example,
you may have a matchup between Philadelphia and Phoenix. From the
outset, both of these teams show a high-pace value, so an over the posted
total bet in this scenario would initially appear to be a positive EV play.
However, upon closer examination of the game, especially in terms of
offensive efficiency, both of these teams, while known for playing a high-
tempo game, waste a lot of their possessions and show extremely high
turnover numbers.
As of the 2016/2017 NBA season, both Philadelphia and Phoenix
show well above-average pace numbers, but also have some of the lowest
current OER rankings in the NBA. These offensive efficiency numbers are
extremely important as they show what a team can produce during their
time in possession. So use OER statistics to fine check any pace data you
already have on teams in terms of picking which NBA totals on the daily
slate you are going to wager on. Using both of these statistical angles will
allow you to have a significant edge over the more casual bettor.
Another great betting opportunity that takes place in NBA aside from
betting totals is in-play betting, or live betting. This is a strategy that
professional bettors use often, and is especially relevant to betting on NBA.
This is because of the bookmakers’ general tendency to correctly call a
game before tip-off and the overall speed and scoring efficiency of an
average NBA game.
Let’s take a look at some different sports to gage an idea of what we
mean by speed and scoring efficiency vs. pregame spread lines and how
they differ from NBA, for example, soccer and baseball.
Let’s say the bookmakers have Southampton in the English Premier
League priced up at -1.5 goals over Watford and the halftime score is 2–0 to
Watford, then it is more than likely the bookmakers have simply gotten this
match wrong, a rare error on their part. This is because Southampton, in
order to cover the spread, would have to score 4 or more goals in the second
half and concede none. A very tall order!
The same scenario would apply to baseball also. If the St. Louis
Cardinals are even money -1.5 on the run line favorites over the Milwaukee
Brewers, but find themselves 6–2 down in the bottom of the seventh inning,
then more often than not they will not be able to win the game, let alone
cover the run line, as they would need six runs in just two innings to cover
the spread, while again making sure to concede no runs of their own .
This is not the case in basketball however. In both NBA and NCAAB,
being down by a number of scores means a lot less than it does in other
sports. This is due to the high-paced nature of the game itself. If the Detroit
Pistons are +13 in a game against the Miami Heat and find themselves
down 102–80 with just four minutes left in the fourth quarter, there is still a
reasonable chance of them covering the spread. As stated earlier,
bookmakers usually have these numbers fairly accurate from tip-off, give or
take a few points, so value can often be found on the in-play line. As a case
in point, a few years ago the Oklahoma City Thunder were playing the
Houston Rockets on the road. OKC was favored by four points prior to tip-
off but the Rockets came out fired up to play. By the halftime break the
Thunder were staring into a 20 plus deficit and the full game line was
adjusted to OKC +14 to reflect the poor nature of their performance thus
far. Notice the dramatic change from a pregame spread of OKC -4 to OKC
+14 in a little over 24 minutes of play. A huge swing in market balancing
that rarely happens in other sports.
In-game wagering opportunities like this are abundant in the NBA,
and spots like the example above are usually some of the best. To highlight
the opportunity at OKC +14 on the live line, especially knowing OKC at
the time was a championship contender and all their starters were returning
for the second half, a play on OKC plus the points looked like a great
positive EV bet. Sure enough, by the final whistle OKC not only covered
the huge halftime spread, but ended up winning the game outright by two
points! An easy win and cover for anyone paying attention to pregame
spreads and roster lineups.
In-game opportunities like this often happen in totals too. How about
a low-scoring game at halftime that was slated pregame at an over/under of
217.5? Taking the over in the second half will often be the smarter EV bet
as the increased line value you are now getting will correlate nicely with the
pregame expectations of both teams’ offensive capabilities. NBA moves at
such a fast pace that taking these live line moves at the most opportune
times is often the best way to profit over the course of a season. Factor in
what the pre-line was and compare this to the existing line you are getting
at the time of play and at least some value should always become apparent,
whether on the side or total. However, never solely bet these opportunities
blindly. Taking the Philadelphia 76ers +24 at halftime when they were +17
at tip-off might seem like a similar circumstance to the ones described
above, but bad teams like this might, and often do, just mail it in. It is often
wise to avoid poor teams like this or non-playoff teams come the end of the
regular season as motivation can be a huge factor in determining whether or
not these teams can cover the spread. Notwithstanding these outlying bad
team scenarios, in-play betting can produce some of the most consistent
profit you’re likely to see over the course of an average NBA season.
Another popular angle you may have heard of in NBA betting circles
is the “zig-zag” theory that applies most suitably to the NBA playoffs. The
premise of the zig-zag theory is to bet on teams who lost against the spread
in their previous game and therefore against teams who covered their last
game easily. The theory holds that the losing team is better suited to bounce
back after a bad loss rather than continue to exhibit poor form, as the very
fact of them being in the playoffs shows that they are a good team. Let’s
examine this theory in action. Let’s say the Dallas Mavericks are +4 against
the Portland Timberwolves at home in game one of the opening series in the
Western Conference. After multiple turnovers and two 30+ point games by
Portland’s starters, the Mavericks get blown out in game one, 113–82. The
line for game two is adjusted by the books to reflect Portland’s dominance
in game one, and they move the new opening line to Dallas +7. The public
might consider this new spread for game two a cheap line considering the
blowout that just occurred a few days earlier in game one and expect a
similar result.
However, zig-zag theory would dictate that Dallas getting +7 is the
positive EV side of the play in this scenario, as it would be a perfect spot
for them to bounce back, especially getting those extra three points at home.
While on paper this all makes complete sense, what with market
overreaction, public bias, and other factors, zig-zag theory has nevertheless
become so well-known now in betting circles that the market has adjusted
accordingly and most perceived value on its application is all but gone.
While in the 1980’s and 1990’s zig-zag theory in NBA betting still held a
ton of value, in more recent years the perceived edge in betting on or
against the zig-zag theory has diminished greatly. Books today are much
more clued in to revenge angles of this nature and the market has become
very efficient in nullifying any edge that bettors may have had. Be that as it
may, as long as it’s not used blindly, and only in certain spots, zig-zag NBA
betting theory can still lend you an additional angle in your pursuit of
picking steady NBA playoff winners when used in conjunction with your
other handicapping approaches.
These are just a few of the successful angles used by professional
bettors in order to get an advantage over the sportsbooks when betting
NBA. See what works best for you. But always be aware of the high
variance in NBA and adjust your handicapping numbers accordingly.
 14. Understanding NHL

The National Hockey League, or NHL for short, has grown immensely over
the last two decades. While still being the smallest of the “big four,” namely
the NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL, it continues to grow both in size and
popularity on a yearly basis. This has had the knock-on effect of a
resurgence in recent years of NHL wagering at the betting window for both
casual hockey fans and professional bettors.
Betting ice hockey is different from pretty much every other major
sport. And while the fundamentals of power rankings, trends, line
movements, and so on will always come into play, there are additional
factors you must be aware of before attempting to tackle handicapping the
NHL.
The first point to consider is understanding the importance of
goaltenders. A goalie in NHL is like a starting pitcher in MLB. Analyzing
the necessary strengths and weaknesses of a goalie is the building block to
successfully handicapping the NHL. As in MLB, it all starts with the stats.
The first stat to look at concerning a goaltenders strengths is what the
goalies overall GAA is. GAA stands for “goals against average,” and shows
how many goals that goaltender allows on average per game. This is an
intrinsic stat, just like a starting pitcher’s ERA, as it highlights the overall
effectiveness of a goalie. Tuukka Rask, for example, the starting goalie for
the Boston Bruins at time of this writing, has an incredible GAA of 1.49.
This shows how effective Rask is in the position of goaltender as he allows
on average just three goals for every two games he starts in nets. This GAA
is well above-average however, as most good goalies in the NHL have a
GAA stat of somewhere between 1.80 to 2.20. GAA should always be
among the first statistics analyzed when evaluating not only a goaltender’s
strengths, but the team’s strengths also, and hence their overall chances of
victory.
The second metric to analyze concerning a goalie’s overall
effectiveness is SV%, which stands for “save percentage.” SV% is a
statistic that shows how many shots in percentage terms that goalie saves on
average. This figure itself is given in decimal terms, so often you will see a
SV% stat next to a goalie of .914, or something relatively similar. A SV%
of .914 would mean that goaltender has saved on average 91.4% of all shots
against him on goal. SV% can range from anywhere between .890 to .950,
but is usually concentrated around the .925 mark for most goaltenders. This
stat is useful for showing how proficient that goalie is in front of the posts,
and when combined with GAA, gives a comprehensive breakdown of how
good a goalie is. Utilizing both of these stats together will give you a clear
indication of which team has the stronger goaltender heading into a
matchup, and so a much greater chance of successfully cashing those
hockey tickets also.
Remember also to compare your percentage goaltender strengths
against the current betting line. Seeing Pekka Rinne of the Nashville
Predators with a GAA of 1.18 and a .960 SV% might look tempting over a
goalie in Dallas posting a 3.81 GAA and .883 SV% for example, but if the
line is -210 on Nashville, then it is fair to assume that most of the line value
has already gone on this game and the relative goaltender stats have already
been built into the line. Instead, look for the spots where the stats and lines
differ and exploit any inefficiencies that you may find there.
While there is a variety of useful data for outfield players like S
(“shots on goal”), G (“goals”), A (“assists”), ATOI (“average time on ice”),
and so on, it is generally much less useful than analyzing a goaltender’s
strengths and weaknesses. Often, however, you can capitalize on this
statistical divide by fading a team with big non-goalie stars like Patrick
Kane and Sidney Crosby if the stats and lines allow it. Just like non-QB
positions in the NFL are often overvalued, so too are non-goaltender
positions in the NHL. So look to take advantage of this misperception at the
betting window .
The last thing to look at when handicapping NHL is trend analysis.
Trends are extremely important in NHL, far more so than they are in either
NFL, NBA, or MLB. Playing on strong multiple season-long trends in the
NHL has generally been a strong EV play over a number of seasons. The
posted lines in NHL generally factor in only recent trends that have
occurred over a team’s previous five or six game streak, and this holds true
for the majority of sports. Bookmakers tend to avoid historical data as it is
often too unreliable with frequent coaching and roster changes to be wholly
accurate.
But in the NHL, long running head-to-head trends usually trump more
recent trends concerning the teams in question, and the lines generally end
up being softer as a result. Take for example a game between the Detroit
Red Wings and the New York Rangers. The Rangers are priced at a healthy
-160, owing mostly to a seven-game winning streak at home and their star
goalie, Henrik Lundqvist, being on fire posting a 1.21 GAA and a .965
SV%. In contrast, the visiting Red Wings are just 4–14 in their last 18
games overall and are a dismal 2–9 on the road. -160 may seem like a
decent price to lay on the home favorites against an out-of-sorts Detroit
team in this scenario. But looking closer at the head-to-head trends, we can
see the Detroit Red Wings have a stellar record against the New York
Rangers going back a number of seasons. For example, in their last 65
games against each other, Detroit is 47–13–5, and when playing in New
York they are 24–7–1. These head-to-head trends can be extremely
important in NHL, and even if you are not necessarily playing on them,
they should often be enough to simply ward you off a game you might
otherwise have played.
While head-to-head trends in the NHL are important, this does not
apply to other more recent trends, or over/under trends for that matter,
between the two teams in question. So be careful. Stick only to the strong,
prominent long-standing trends that offer value in a head-to-head matchup.
Combining this with your handicapping of goaltender strengths should be
more than enough for you to consistently cash those NHL tickets at the
betting window.
 15. Understanding College Sports

Betting on college sports comprises two main areas, namely college football
(NCAAF) and college basketball (NCAAB). While opportunities do exist to
wager on collegiate level baseball and hockey, they are much less popular
than the high volume of bets that both college football and college
basketball attract over the course of a season. This is due to a multitude of
reasons, from TV rights to how complex the farming system is for each
sport. But for the purposes of this chapter we will only be looking at the
two major college sports of NCAAF and NCAAB as these are the college
sports that draw the majority of the betting action.
College football or NCAAF is a hugely popular sport for bettors from
all walks of life. It is the perfect accompaniment to the regular NFL as they
parallel each other’s seasons closely so football bettors have double the
normal action on the weekly slate. Betting on NCAAF not only corresponds
with NFL in terms of when the season takes place, but also in its betting
patterns. Things that work well in one, often work well in the other too. For
example, as we mentioned earlier in the chapter on NFL betting, public
perception is a valuable tool you can gauge to gain an edge. This is also true
in college football where oftentimes teams that are public favorites before
the start of a season can open up even as soon as week two with an 0–1
record, leading the public to lose all faith, somewhat prematurely it should
be stressed, in the team that only a week ago was attracting 75 to 80 percent
of the public betting action.
This is nearly always an overreaction on the public’s part on what was
only the first game of the season and some very profitable information can
be gleaned by this giant shift in perception. However, where public
perception analysis differs from that of the NFL is in the overall structure of
the season. Perception breakdown analysis works throughout most of the
NFL season where a team is either never as good as they looked in the
previous week, or as bad, at least until late in the season when their chances
of a playoff berth are completely gone.
This is different in college football as the seeding system and
committee selection process that picks the teams that will compete for the
four team FBS tournament means that any more than two losses and your
chances of attending the big four team championship tourney are effectively
over. This “left out” scenario can manifest itself in a variety of ways. If a
high-flying team such as Oklahoma or Tennessee before the start of the
season is highly touted, but loses two of its first three games, then it is
likely this will result in a kind of “implosion mentality” for that team.
Where before the season their sole focus was on being in that final four
tournament, now that chance is all but over. Teams like this often go into a
tailspin as they have little to play for in the grand scheme of things and are
often good teams to fade in spots over the course of the season.
Another scenario is at the end of the season where an undefeated team
like TCU or Temple doesn’t get the required number of votes from the
committee to compete at the final four stage, and a more established
program like Alabama or Auburn gets the nod ahead of them into the FBS
tournament, even after having a loss on their record. This can have a huge
psychological effect on the undefeated team in question going into any
subsequent bowl game as they can often feel severely deflated by their
exclusion from the tournament proper, due to no fault of their own. This can
see them often under-perform in smaller bowls that they feel may be
beneath the stature of the season they’ve just had and they are often good
teams to fade come this point of the season.
As an additional note, top-tier programs like Georgia or LSU can also
suffer from this “implosion mentality” if they miss out on the FBS
championship tournament through non-selection. Going into a relatively
meaningless bowl game against a smaller program is often an extremely
good fade, as the larger program has usually lost the majority of its
motivation heading into the game, while the smaller program is delighted
just to have reached a bowl game and will likely give it all they have. In
either scenario, remembering that these players are young and not as
seasoned as the professional players in the NFL when it comes to mindset
and overcoming disappointment should be a core feature of your
handicapping approach come bowl season. Motivation is a key factor in
handicapping NCAAF!
Whichever one of these scenarios applies, however, the results
invariably remain the same. A dream-shattering reality for the team in
question, but a very good situation to sports bettors who play on this kind of
spot angle motivation. Whereas pro teams and athletes usually respond well
to losses and overreaction to “bad teams” is a solid moneymaker in NFL, in
college, these teams with their relatively young athletes can, in the event of
missing out on the big tournament, often go into a whirlwind decline which
results in the opposite betting approach becoming true compared to the NFL
norm. Betting against these types of underachieving teams is usually one of
the most consistently profitable methods of betting college football.
Overall, being successful at betting college football requires most of
the same tools and approaches as it does for NFL. Namely, trust your power
rankings, evaluate noteworthy trends, and watch for any strong or
contrarian line movements, especially very early or very late ones. Aside
from these fundamentals of handicapping, to be truly profitable in college
football, it is paramount to specialize. What this means is focusing your
handicapping efforts exclusively on one or two conferences at most, as
spreading yourself too thin will inevitably lead you to overlook certain
factors or not put the required work in, and will be detrimental long-term to
your overall handicapping ability. Remember that while the NFL contains
only 32 teams, Division 1 NCAAF contains 128 teams, so specialization is
key, whether this is in the PAC-12, SEC, BIG Ten or whatever. Usually the
more local the conference is to your home location the better for news and
analysis purposes. Concentrating your efforts in this fashion will ensure
much more success than simply trying to bet the entire college football
board as a whole.
NCAAB, or college basketball, entails much the same handicapping
methodology as we have already discussed for college football, with a few
exceptions. The main thing to always keep in mind however when
handicapping either sport is to specialize, specialize, and, you guessed it,
specialize! This one fundamental principle of betting college sports cannot
be overemphasized enough. While 128 may seem like a large number of
teams in college football, college basketball dwarfs its football counterpart
with a total of 351 teams playing in NCAAB Men’s Division 1! While
choosing one of the more well-known conferences like the ACC or Big 12
may offer some big game excitement to your daily betting action, be aware
that these are also the conferences that the books are tuned in on too with
teams like North Carolina, Louisville, and Kansas all competing, so lines
will invariably be that much sharper. A better option may be to look at some
of the smaller conferences, such as Conference USA or the Metro Atlantic
Athletic Conference (MAAC for short), to gain a competitive edge over the
bookmakers. Lines on these conference matchups will generally be softer
than they would be in one of the larger conferences as the public’s attention
is focused elsewhere.
An extremely valuable source of NCAAB reference data and statistics
is available over at Kenpom.com , and one you should immediately become
aware of if you intend to bet college basketball regularly. Ken Pomeroy’s
website has built up a goldmine of data on college hoops for well over a
decade now and is one of the first places you should look when
handicapping a team’s relative strengths and weaknesses against the spread.
All of this profitable information containing power rankings, offensive and
defensive efficiency numbers, and strength of schedule adjustments are
offered for free over at Ken’s website. A nominal membership option is also
available that breaks down individual matchups in greater detail. All in all,
it is a fantastic handicapping tool to aid you in better breaking down college
basketball .
The last point to consider when betting college hoops is the inevitable
end of season tournament most commonly referred to as “March Madness.”
Most people who are even only casually aware of sports in the USA are
likely to have heard of the annual betting frenzy between March and April
that takes place in Las Vegas and nearly every other major metropolitan city
in America. Bettors and sports fans from all over the country tune in to
watch the 68 tournament teams battle it out in the opening rounds, through
to the Sweet Sixteen, then the Elite Eight and eventually on to the Final
Four, until only one team remains standing. March Madness alone is worth
an estimated $9 billion to the gaming industry, with most of the action
taking place in casual fans’ office pools and brackets, with Vegas, offshore,
and illicit bookmakers making up the remainder. This figure goes to show
the popularity of sports betting that exists within the general public and the
opportunities that can present themselves to experienced bettors who can
take advantage of it.
 As far as handicapping March Madness goes, stick with the numbers
that have gotten you through the season so far. Power rankings, trends, and
indicative line movements are all fundamental aspects of successful
handicapping you should be using for every approach to a game you intend
to wager on. Beyond that, March Madness has some additional factors that
you should be aware of going into the start of the tournament.
First, pay attention to underdogs in the first round of the tournament,
especially on opening day. There is no home field advantage for teams
heading into the first round of the draw, so an electrically-charged
atmosphere against the road underdog is less of a factor. Also,
championship-caliber teams generally tend to ease themselves into the
tournament. Remember, the tournament is almost a month-long, so
championship contenders rarely want to exert more effort than they need to
in disposing of weaker teams. The public, however, will generally love
these big favorites in the opening round, so look to the points and avoid the
chalk in what has proven to be a very successful strategy over a number of
seasons .
Second, remember to look at all the mitigating factors that have gotten
the team this far. Strength of schedule, turnover differential, coaching
angles, and so on. Look for discrepancies. As simple as it may seem,
determining these factors later in the tournament gives you a distinct
advantage over the more casual bettors at the betting window, as the
majority of bettors simply look to committee ranking in determining their
choice of victor. Dig a little deeper and discover which of the matchups will
give you that decided edge over the public.
Paying attention to these fundamental stats coupled with public
perception can reap huge financial rewards come March Madness.
Overall, betting college sports can be extremely profitable for an acute
sports bettor. Look for your spots, apply the knowledge detailed above,
specialize in one or two chosen conferences, and most of all don’t be afraid
to back underdogs!
 Summary

We have analyzed and discussed a variety of proven ways to help enhance

your betting knowledge and give you an improved edge when walking up to
the ticket betting counter ready to make a wager. Utilizing the principles
laid out in this book will allow you to maximize your handicapping and
betting potential and be much more profitable when making any
prospective wagers. While there are certainly no guarantees in any single
given wager, using these fundamental strategies will grant you a much
higher percentage of finding positive EV bets over the long-term than
someone simply relying solely on their “gut” or instinct.
In summary, stay the course. Work your theories through with the
information provided here and pick your spots carefully, be patient, and be
selective in the amount of wagers you bet on (remember, the more times
you go head-to-head with the bookmakers the more chance you have of
coming unstuck!). Employ rigorous money management when evaluating
your wager size. Pick a unit size and stick with it, with one unit being one
percent of your betting bankroll as standard.
Lastly, have fun! Contrary to popular belief, this business can be fun
and if you bring the right mentality to betting it can be a very enjoyable
pastime or even career! Just remember to let go and accept the bad calls.
Fumbles, last-minute Hail Mary’s, or any other number of events could
conspire against you, ruining your wager on that one single event. However,
that’s just part of the game. Stick to your numbers and your win percentage
should be more than enough to not only cover these eventualities, but see
you profit greatly over the long-term.
Best of luck and see you at the betting window !
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