2-2-Aviation's Climate Impact
2-2-Aviation's Climate Impact
To cite this article: Maija Happonen, Lisa Rasmusson, Anna Elofsson & Anneli Kamb
(2023) Aviation’s climate impact allocated to inbound tourism: decision-making insights
for “climate-ambitious” destinations, Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 31:8, 1885-1901, DOI:
10.1080/09669582.2022.2080835
1 Introduction
International arrivals worldwide grew 5% per year in the 10 years prior to the COVID-19 pan-
demic, outpacing the growth in global GDP (UNWTO, 2020b). With half of all arrivals travelling
by air (UNWTO, 2020a), global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from aviation have also grown.
The total CO2 emissions from global aviation were 2.4% of total global CO2 emissions in 2018,
and the it total global warming effect could be twice as high if one includes the non-CO2 effects
of aviation (Lee et al., 2021). International air travel and its climate impact are projected to grow,
even given the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which temporarily halted this development in
2020 (IATA, 2016; ICAO, 2020; UNWTO & ITF, 2019). Now, air travel is rebounding (Hall et al.,
2020), and IATA projects that European air travel volumes will be back at pre-pandemic levels by
2024 (IATA, 2021). In a baseline scenario expected before the pandemic, aviation GHG emissions
would more than double by 2050 compared to 2018 levels (Cames et al., 2015). To be aligned
with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 C target, the IPCC has modelled that global GHG emissions must
halve by 2030 and reach net zero around by 2050 (IPCC, 2018).
International air travel’s climate impact is best regulated with international measures to
ensure consistency. However, the current policy landscape for international aviation is not
deemed to be aligned with the 1.5 C target (ICSA, 2019; IEA, 2020; Larsson et al., 2019). For
instance, ICAO’s new market-based instrument called the Carbon Offsetting Reduction Scheme
for International Aviation (CORSIA) is criticised for not being sufficient to achieve needed emis-
sions reductions (Graver, 2020; IEA, 2020). Also, how CORSIA will interact with the EU Emissions
Trading System (EU ETS) has not yet been decided, and using only CORSIA could undermine the
EU’s emissions reduction ambitions (European Environmental Agency et al., 2019; ICF Consulting
et al., 2020; Larsson et al., 2019). ICAO and the EU also advocate technological development to
deal with aviation’s climate impact, such as electric or hydrogenfuelled aircraft, yet these have lit-
tle potential to be commercialised widely within the next 10–20 years (Rondinelli et al., 2014;
Sch€afer et al., 2019). Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs), such as biofuels and electrofuels, show
more promise in the short to middle term, and are part of net-zero pathways for aviation
(European Environmental Agency et al., 2019; ICAO, 2019c; Wise et al., 2017). However, biofuels
constitute only 0.05% of current jet fuel consumption, at double the price in Europe, and electro-
fuels are four times more expensive than conventional fuel (Åkerman et al., 2021; Eurocontrol,
2021). Therefore, the potential of SAFs is, in the short-term, limited. Given the projected lack of
certainty as to whether current policies and technologies can deliver the needed reductions in
emissions in time, additional national policies to reduce emissions may be necessary, at least in
the short term (Larsson et al., 2019).
New climate policies or other measures are often rendered less effective because of the bene-
fits aviation offers: fast and affordable long-haul travel that enables global tourism. Tourism is a
major employer in many countries and contributed 10.3% to global GDP in 2019 (WTTC, 2020).
Nevertheless, in the tourism sector, air travel is the sole biggest contributor to climate change. It
contributed 20% of the direct and indirect carbon footprint from tourism in 2013 (Lenzen et al.,
2018). Seeking tourism growth while also wanting to limit aviation’s climate impact is a common
goal conflict for destinations (Elofsson et al., 2018).
Given aviation’s climate impact and the lack of adequate international policies, air travel’s cli-
mate impact should not be overlooked by national tourism decision-makers, especially in coun-
tries with ambitions to reduce their climate impact. Currently, international aviation’s climate
impact can be reported voluntarily to the UN in addition to national inventories as the amount
of bunker fuels sold (UNFCCC, 2020). From a tourism perspective however, this may not be a fair
representation of the cause of emissions, as the climate impact associated with a traveller is not
necessarily tied to the country where the fuel is sold, due to transfers and transits, for example
The validity of bunker fuel as the allocation principle has been called into question before,
because for countries with large airport hubs, it does not fairly reflect the population’s GHG
emissions from outbound air travel (Larsson et al., 2018). Allocation principles based on inbound
and outbound travel would be more in line with international tourism patterns
Inbound travel is defined as travel to a country by non-residents, while outbound travel is
defined as travel outside a country by its residents (IRTS, 2008). The climate impact from out-
bound air travel has been quantified in several countries (see, e.g. Aamaas et al., 2013; Aamaas &
Peters, 2017; Christensen, 2016; Kamb & Larsson, 2019). However, existing studies of the climate
impact from air travel for international inbound tourism often have a broader focus. For example,
Go€ssling et al. (2015) looked at air travel emissions intensities based on the market composition
for inbound tourism, while other studies have looked at the total ecological or carbon footprints
from inbound tourism and travel (e.g. Peeters & Schouten, 2006; Sharp et al., 2016). A focus on
the climate impact from international inbound air travel in relation to a nation’s climate ambi-
tions is missing, however.
JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE TOURISM 1887
This article intends to fill this gap and provide insights on the climate impact from inter-
national air travel from a tourism perspective. The aim of the article is to quantify the climate
impact of international visitors’ inbound air travel, and present it together with the climate
impact of residents’ outbound air travel, to see whether this quantification can provide valuable
policy insights for tourism’s decision-makers. This will be done using a case study of Sweden,
where outbound air travel’s climate impact is already quantified and disclosed publicly by the
Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2021),
while outbound air travel has not been studied.
One of Sweden’s climate goals is to reach net-zero GHG emissions by 2045 (Swedish
Environmental Protection Agency, 2019), a goal the Swedish government has declared they will
work proactively to achieve (Sweden’s Ministry of Finance, 2019). Furthermore, Sweden has seen
an increase in both inbound and outbound tourism in the last decade (Swedish Agency for
Economic & Regional Growth, 2019), and Sweden aims to increase inbound tourism through
active marketing efforts in long-haul markets such as China (Government Offices of Sweden,
2019; Ministry of Enterprise & Energy & Communications, 2019; Swedish Tourism Industry
Association, n.d.). Inbound tourism to Sweden has also been shown to be dependent on aviation
(Naess-Schmidt et al., 2019). As such, Sweden is a case with a clear goal conflict, representing a
country with ambitious climate goals that is also aiming to grow its inbound tourism numbers
from long-haul markets, and is thus a case where important insights may be gained for tourism’s
decision-makers.
reduce negative local environmental or social impacts from tourism, or to optimise the tourism
demand mix through strategic marketing based on low carbon footprint and high economic
yield markets (Sun et al., 2020).) . As these push and pull factors are always part of why a person
travels to a specific place, both should be taken into account when making decisions concerning
tourism with the aim to reduce its climate impact.
Table 1. Table of the percentage of guest nights at commercial accommodation establishments allocated to air travel, data
adapted from Naess-Schmidt et al. (2019).
Country / Countries % of guest nights allocated to air travel
Norway 10 %
Denmark 30 %
Germany 50 %
Netherlands 70 %
United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, Switzerland, Austria, 90 %
Czech Republic, Poland, Lithuania, Finland, France
Other 100 %
and can be seen in Table 1. For the countries not included by Naess-Schmidt et al., arrivals were
assumed to be 100% by aviation. To get the average distance, the data was weighted by the
number of inbound tourists from the specific country and the distance to that country.
(GWP100) has been deemed appropriate (see for example Fuglestvedt et al., 2010). A recent
study provided an updated estimate (with reduced uncertainty for the GWP100 factor) for avi-
ation of 1.7, meaning that the total climate impact from aviation is 70% higher than from its
CO2 emissions alone (Lee et al., 2021). This figure is lower than the previous estimate of 1.9 (Lee
et al., 2010). Thus, the total CO2 emissions Etotal,CO2 were multiplied by an emissions weighting
factor of 1.7 to get the total CO2-equivalent emissions.
. Results
The results for each variable, which when combined yield the climate impact of inbound air
travel by non-residents to Sweden, are presented in this section. The results are presented using
the same approach for outbound trips by Swedish residents, calculated for 2000–2017 by Kamb
and Larsson (2019), with an extrapolation for outbound trips for 2018. These calculations were
also updated with the non-CO2 emissions weighting factor of 1.7 (see Section 2.3), instead of the
1.9 factor Kamb and Larsson used, yielding results that can be compared to the calculations for
inbound trips in this article. The comparison is presented to provide a comprehensive picture of
inbound and outbound air travel to and from Sweden.
Figure 1. Number of international round trips by non-residents and Swedish residents (data based on Kamb and Larsson
(2019) and from Transport Analysis (2020)).
JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE TOURISM 1891
Figure 2. Calculated average round trip distance by non-residents in kilometres, compared to outbound trips by Swedish resi-
dents with data based on Kamb and Larsson (2019).
inbound aviation trips to Sweden is thus growing faster than the total number of international
arrivals, via all transport modes, worldwide.
Figure 3. Calculated Swedish-adjusted global kg CO2 per pkm and kg CO2eq per pkm including the non-CO2 effects with an
EWF at 1.7 (Lee et al., 2021), adjusted for Sweden.
Figure 4. Calculated total climate impact in Mt CO2eq from inbound trips by non-residents, compared with outbound inter-
national trips by Swedish residents (data based on Kamb and Larsson (2019)).
Table 2. UNWTO data of total arrivals from air travel at establishments, and calculated total arrivals.
Year Results total arrivals UNWTO dataset total arrivals Unaccounted for trips % Unaccounted for
2014 5.11 million 3.56 million 1.54 million 30%
2015 5.44 million 4.46 million 0.97 million 18%
2016 6.14 million 4.74 million 1.41 million 23%
2017 6.81 million 5.02 million 1.79 million 26%
2018 7.09 million 5.38 million 1.70 million 24%
Table 3. Average one-way distance calculated from UNWTO arrival data (origin of tourists, UNWTO 2019) at establishments
compared to only using the direct arrival countries without transit data from Swedavia (Swedavia, 2020).
Year Direct arrivals data (km) UNWTO origin data (km) Difference % difference
2014 2 026 2 783 757 27%
2015 2 013 2 535 523 21%
2016 2 005 2 565 560 22%
2017 2 058 2 796 738 26%
2018 2 074 2 783 710 25%
many trips are unaccounted for in the UNWTO data in relation to the number of trips calculated
in Section 3.1. As can be seen, between 18 and 30% are missing. Some tourists could also be
duplicates, which would happen if they changed accommodation, and the difference could thus
be higher. These unaccounted for trips are most likely travellers staying with family and friends
or subletting through platforms such as Airbnb. The UNWTO dataset was also partly incomplete,
with 16% of the total arrivals in 2014 and up to 24% of the total arrivals in 2018 marked as
“other countries of the world.” These were omitted from the calculation of average distance as
no more information than this was provided. As almost all European countries were specified in
the dataset from UNWTO, it suggests that these other countries are further away. The average
distance travelled to Sweden may thus have increased more than the results imply.
Moreover, the UNWTO data only provides country-level origin data, not specific airports. The aver-
age distance could thus also be skewed due to the distance being calculated between the geograph-
ical mid-points in the tourist’s country of residence and in Sweden, and not between specific airports.
Also, although distances were calculated from the true origin, any extra detours arising from transits
were not included. However, the method still provides a better estimate than only looking at the last
leg of an inbound trip. This can be seen in Table 3, where our results are compared to Swedavia data
based on flights landing in Sweden – a 21–27% shorter distance.
4 Discussion
The aim of this article was to see whether quantifying the climate impacts of inbound air travel
and present it together with the climate impact of outbound air travel can provide new insights
for tourism’s decision-makers. Looking at the case of Sweden, the quantification shows that the
climate impact from inbound air travel has increased 7.1% annually in the period 2014–2018,
while the climate impact of outbound air travel has remained stable. The annual growth of the
climate impact from inbound air travel to Sweden has grown at a faster rate than the global
average of 5% for aviation’s climate impact (Lee et al., 2021). This growth in the climate impact
cannot be seen as to be in line with Sweden’s ambitions to proactively work towards reaching
net-zero emissions. In this section, the methodology and results will be discussed, along with the
insights for tourism’s decision-makers.
the climate impact at passenger levels and using specific traveller data would be a more accur-
ate approach. But as such data is not easy to obtain, and sometimes nonexistent, the method in
this article calculated the impact in a way that decision-makers could action, so that it could be
advisory for national, regional or local aviation and tourism policies. While the simplicity of the
method used in this article could be questioned in terms of its accuracy, its simplicity is also one
of its strengths if it were used for continuous monitoring, since more complex methods might
be too demanding and thus not used at all (Ekvall, 2019). Other inbound air travel calculations
would result in more indicators (e.g. Becken & Shuker, 2019),or more detailed information about
the impact from inbound tourists, but would need more input data. These kinds of calculations
can be an additional step if the data is available and more insights are needed, while the
method used here gives a robust general overview of the impact with the option of comparing
the impact from inbound and outbound air travel.
The uncertainties in the UNWTO data that were used to calculate the average distance, along
with a lack of supplementary data, suggest a deficiency in the accessible tourism data for
Sweden, since the official data available (from Statistics Sweden & Swedish Agency for Economic
& Regional Growth 2019) are limited to guest nights at accommodation establishments. Detailed
data on the origins and destinations of travellers have been used in other studies (e.g.
Christensen, 2016; Kamb & Larsson, 2019), but it is not accessible to the general public. This is
probably a common issue for many countries, and are data that should be collected and made
available in order to enable accurate estimations. If this study is replicated, in order to reduce
uncertainty, the best data available should be used, preferably including the origin and destin-
ation airports and all transits for all arriving air passengers. All in all, however, the usage of the
UNWTO data was deemed sufficient for the scope and aim of this study.
perspective. It can also be argued that since there are active efforts to increase demand for a
destination, instructed by strategic growth incentives from the governmental level in Sweden for
example (Government Offices of Sweden, 2015), the responsibility for these emissions also falls
to the destination (inbound tourism) and is not solely the responsibility of the source market
nation (outbound tourism).
et al., 2021). For a country like Sweden, marketing to closer markets could mean a slower growth
in tourism numbers, as many closer markets are more mature and outbound tourism growth is
not as great as in China for example. China is the one of fastest growing tourism source markets
in the world (UNWTO, 2019a).
However, slowing down growth does not need to be an inherently bad thing. Destinations
could focus on optimising the demand mix to achieve a lower carbon intensity as discussed by
Sun et al. (2020) for example, while optimising for highvalue rather than high-volume tourism
growth. This means focusing on eco-efficiency in the tourism sector and changing the focus of
traditional destination management to achieve a lower carbon impact (Go €ssling & Higham,
2020). This could also help destinations avoid overtourism, which has been linked to tourism
strategies that focus solely on increasing visitor numbers (Seraphin et al., 2019). A slower growth
in inbound travellers could thus be beneficial from both an ecological and a social perspective.
Multiple studies have pointed out that counting on voluntary behaviour alone to reduce avi-
ation emissions is insufficient; and must be supplemented by government measures and decisive
policy instruments (Higham et al., 2016, 2019; McKercher et al., 2010). Some measures for destin-
ation-based carbon management, such as demarketing, do not have a pricing mechanism per se,
hence it is not certain that they will have mitigating effects. Therefore, it can also be important
to include supplementary measures. These could include policies mandating the use of
Sustainable Aviation Fuels or implementing passenger taxes. Sweden has decided to implement
its reduction obligation, which aims to reduce CO2 emissions by 27% per litre of fuel by 2030,
by for example blending in bio-jet fuels (Government Offices of Sweden, 2020). Short-term poli-
cies enable the diffusion of long-term innovative policy solutions to achieve the ultimate goal
for aviation of having net-zero climate impact, in line with international goals (Larsson
et al., 2019).
Due to the impacts from COVID-19 on tourism in 2020, CO2 emissions from the aviation sec-
tor are currently historically low. Some argue the current disruption provides an opportunity to
regrow a more sustainable tourism sector (Go €ssling et al., 2021). Considering that there is public
support for more stringent aviation climate policies – provided that they are fair, effective and
target the aviation industry rather than individuals (Kantenbacher et al., 2018; Larsson et al.,
2020) – decision-makers could thus grasp this regrowth opportunity to introduce such poli-
cies now.
5 Conclusion
The climate impact from inbound air travel in Sweden increased by 31% in the period
2014–2018 and has exhibited a higher annual growth rate than the global average for aviation.
The climate impact from outbound air travel is also growing in Sweden, but not at the same
rate. Thus, Sweden’s tourism sector cannot be seen as aligned with the trajectory needed to
achieve the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 C goal. Hence, its climate impact needs to be reduced.
Tourism strategies and policies ought to shift to promote low-carbon tourism, increasing the
eco-efficiency of the tourism demand mix. They should aim to retain the positive effects from
tourism, while limiting its negative impacts, especially the climate impact from air travel. While
waiting for international policies to take shape, national policies should be used. To start with,
destination-based carbon management through demarketing in faraway markets could provide
such an opportunity, redirecting the resources to increase tourism from nearby or domestic mar-
kets. Supplemented by other policies, such as policies to mandate the use of Sustainable
Aviation Fuels, it would provide a comprehensive policy package to reduce the climate impact
of inbound and outbound air travel in a harmonised way.
The approach of allocating air travel’s climate impact to inbound travellers as well as out-
bound travellers provides an indication of whether a country’s tourism sector is on a sustainable
JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE TOURISM 1897
path, or if the country needs to act to better align the sector with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 C
goal. In nations where both tourism growth and ambitious climate goals exist, this quantification
can be useful in providing a broader perspective on the tourism sector’s climate impact. It is an
easily accessible method, uses available statistics, and can be useful for getting a full picture of
international tourism’s climate impact as input when designing tourism policies. To conclude,
the allocation approach is a useful measure to consider for achieving ambitious climate goals
and designing relevant policies to create a sustainable tourism and aviation sector for the future.
Note
1. greatcircledistance ¼ Rarccos[sin(lat1)sin(lat2) þ cos(lat1)cos(lat2)cos(lon1 lon2), finding the distance between
(lat1, lon1) and (lat2, lon2), where R ¼ 6371,01 km, the mean radius of Earth
Acknowledgments
We want to thank Katherine Stuart for proof-reading the article.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflicts of interest were reported by the authors.
Funding
This work was supported by VINNOVA under Grant number 2019-03233; and MISTRA (the Swedish Foundation for
Strategic Environmental Research) under Grant number 2016/3 (Mistra Sustainable Consumption programme).
Notes on contributors
Maija Happonen have a MSc in Industrial ecology and have researched aviation’s climate impact in master thesis
settings. Part of research cluster for sustainable long-distance tourism travel.
Lisa Rasmusson have a MSc in Industrial ecology and have researched aviation’s climate impact in master thesis
settings. Part of research cluster for sustainable long-distance tourism travel.
1898 M. HAPPONEN ET AL.
Anna Elofsson have a licentiate degree in climate policy instruments for aviation. Participates in the research cluster
“Mistra Sustainable Consumption” and in projects on sustainable long-distance travel. Has previously worked as an
investigative secretary in the investigation of biofuels for aviation and five years for the city of Zurich as program
manager strategic innovation projects to achieve the city’s energy and climate goals. Currently also a senior analyst
at Swedish Climate Policy Council.
Anneli Kamb is a PhD student with research focused on making long-distance travel sustainable, with particular
emphasis on lowering greenhouse gas emissions from air travel. Have prior years of research in the area and publi-
cations around the climate impact from outbound air travel from the Swedish population. Part of research cluster
for sustainable long- distance tourism travel.
ORCID
Anna Elofsson http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9527-2137
Anneli Kamb http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3111-1718
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