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Contents
Preface ix
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
Chapter 2 Elements of the Sampling Problem 7

2.1 Introduction 7
2.2 Technical Terms 8
2.3 How to Select the Sample: The Design of the Sample Survey 10
2.4 Sources of Errors in Surveys 18
2.5 Designing a Questionnaire 29
2.6 Planning a Survey 37
2.7 Summary 38
Exercises 39
Critical Thinking with Real Data 45
Chapter 3 Some Basic Concepts of Statistics 48

3.0 Tools 48
3.1 Introduction 48
3.2 Summarizing Information in Populations and Samples:
The Infinite Population Case 49
3.3 Summarizing Information in Populations and Samples:
The Finite Population Case 53
3.4 Sampling Distributions 57
3.5 Covariance and Correlation 63
3.6 Estimation 65
3.7 Summary 67
Exercises 68
Chapter 4 Simple Random Sampling 75

4.0 Tools 76
4.1 Introduction 76
4.2 How to Draw a Simple Random Sample 78
vi Contents
4.3 Estimation of a Population Mean and Total 80

4.4 Selecting the Sample Size for Estimating Population Means and Totals 88
4.5 Estimation of a Population Proportion 90
4.6 Comparing Estimates 95
4.7 Summary 100
Exercises 102
Sampling from Real Populations 111
A Sampling Activity—Random Rectangles 112
Chapter 5 Stratified Random Sampling 115

5.0 Tools 115
5.1 Introduction 116
5.2 How to Draw a Stratified Random Sample 118
5.5 Allocation of the Sample 126
5.7 Selecting the Sample Size and Allocating the Sample
to Estimate Proportions 135
5.8 Additional Comments on Stratified Sampling 140
5.9 An Optimal Rule for Choosing Strata 144
5.10 Stratification after Selection of the Sample 145
5.11 Double Sampling for Stratification 148
5.12 Summary 150
Exercises 152
Chapter 6 Ratio, Regression, and Difference Estimation 168

6.0 Tools 169
6.2 Surveys that Require the Use of Ratio Estimators 170
6.3 Ratio Estimation Using Simple Random Sampling 172
6.4 Selecting the Sample Size 179
6.5 Ratio Estimation in Stratified Random Sampling 187
6.6 Regression Estimation 190
6.7 Difference Estimation 193
6.8 Relative Efficiency of Estimators 195
6.9 Summary 202
Exercises 204
Chapter 7 Systematic Sampling 217

7.0 Tools 218
7.2 How to Draw a Systematic Sample 220
Contents vii

7.5 Selecting the Sample Size 230
7.6 Repeated Systematic Sampling 232
7.7 Further Discussion of Variance Estimators 235
7.8 Summary 242
Exercises 243
Chapter 8 Cluster Sampling 251

8.0 Tools 251
8.2 How to Draw a Cluster Sample 253
8.4 Equal Cluster Sizes: Comparison to Simple Random Sampling 260
8.7 Selecting the Sample Size for Estimating Proportions 270
8.8 Cluster Sampling Combined with Stratification 271
8.9 Cluster Sampling with Probabilities Proportional
to Size 273
8.10 Summary 277
Exercises 278
Chapter 9 Two-Stage Cluster Sampling 289

9.0 Tools 289
9.2 How to Draw a Two-Stage Cluster Sample 291
9.3 Unbiased Estimation of a Population Mean and Total 292
9.4 Ratio Estimation of a Population Mean 295
9.6 Sampling Equal-Sized Clusters 299
9.7 Two-Stage Cluster Sampling with Probabilities Proportional to Size 303
9.8 Summary 305
Exercises 306
Sampling with Real Populations 311
Chapter 10 Estimating the Population Size 312

10.0 Tools 312
10.2 Estimation of a Population Size Using Direct Sampling 314
10.3 Estimation of a Population Size Using Inverse Sampling 316
10.4 Choosing Sample Sizes for Direct and Inverse Sampling 317
viii Contents
10.5 Estimating Population Density and Size from Quadrat Samples 319
10.6 Estimating Population Density and Size from Stocked Quadrats 323
10.7 Adaptive Sampling 325
10.8 Summary 327
Exercises 328
Chapter 11 Supplemental Topics 336

11.0 Tools 336
11.2 Interpenetrating Subsamples 337
11.3 Estimation of Means and Totals over Subpopulations 339
11.4 Random-Response Model 343
11.5 Use of Weights in Sample Surveys 347
11.6 Adjusting for Nonresponse 351
11.7 Imputation 356
11.8 Selecting the Number of Callbacks 358
11.9 The Bootstrap 360
11.10 Summary 363
Exercises 363
Chapter 12 Summary 368

12.1 Summary of the Designs and Methods 368
12.2 Comparisons among the Designs and Methods 370
Exercises 371
Appendix A
Bibliography, Tables, and Derivations 380
Appendix B
Macros for SAS 392
Appendix C
Data Sets 414
Selected Answers 429
Index 432
Preface
Purpose
Elementary Survey Sampling, Seventh Edition, is an introductory textbook on the de-
sign and analysis of sample surveys intended for students of business, the social sci-
ences, the health sciences, environmental studies, natural resource management, or
other areas that make extensive use of sampling. As such, we mean “survey” in the
broadest sense; applications include, for instance, measured data on selected sample
units, as well as responses from people to questionnaires. It is written to appeal to
students interested in the application of survey sampling, not the statistical theory
that underlies survey design and analysis; the only prerequisite is an elementary
course in statistics.
Approach
This book emphasizes the practical aspects of survey problems. It begins with brief
chapters on the role of sample surveys in the modern world. Thereafter, each chapter
introduces a sample survey design or estimation procedure followed by describing
the pertinent practical problem. These chapters are structured as follows:
• The methodology proposed for solving the problem is described, followed by de-
tails of the estimation procedure, including a compact presentation of the formulas
needed to complete the analysis. The formulas in each estimation procedure
have been programmed into an interactive Excel worksheet.
• In each instance, a practical example is worked out in complete detail. Each
worked example in the text is embedded in the relevant Excel worksheet, so the
student can study the material by both reading and seeing the formulas in action.
• Many exercises are provided at the end of each chapter to give students ample
opportunity to practice the techniques and stretch their grasp of ideas. All data
sets (excepting the very smallest) are available electronically on the accompa-
nying CD.
We have endeavored to avoid making this merely a cookbook. To justify many of
the formulas and to support the choice of particular sampling designs, we have
supplied explanations that appeal to students’ intuition. Simulations demonstrating
the properties of estimators are provided in a few places. Examples and exercises
have been selected from many fields of application. Answers given for some se-
lected exercises may be subject to small rounding errors because of the complexity
of some formulas.
ix
x Preface
Sampling from Real Populations

The “Sampling from Real Populations” sections found at the end of most chapters in-
clude suggestions on how the student can become involved with real sampling prob-
lems. These problems may be large or small projects; we have found such projects to
be valuable learning experiences for students taking a sampling course. Working on
a real project forces students to think about every aspect of the survey and causes
them to realize that some ideas that sound simple in the textbook are not so easily
carried out in practice.
Organization
After a brief introductory chapter, the book provides a description of terms pertinent to
survey sampling, along with a discussion of the design of questionnaires and methods
of data collection (Chapter 2). Then, some of the ideas of introductory statistics are
related to basic issues of sample survey design and analysis (Chapter 3). Chapters 4,
5, 7, and 8 present the four most common sample survey designs—namely, simple
random sampling, stratified random sampling, systematic sampling, and cluster sam-
pling, respectively. Chapter 6 brings in the notion of using an auxiliary variable
through ratio, regression, and difference estimation. The remaining chapters deal
with two-stage cluster sampling and other specialized problems that occur in survey
sampling.
Practical aspects of conducting survey samples are emphasized, with sections on
sources of errors in surveys, methods of data collection, designing questionnaires,
and guidelines for planning surveys. Sampling with probabilities proportional to size
is introduced in Chapter 3 and applied to cluster sampling in Chapters 8 and 9. Chap-
ter 10 examines methods for estimating the population size (the number of people,
animals, or plants) in a given circumstance. Brief introductions to a selection of sup-
plemental topics are presented in Chapter 11. (All chapters contain many examples
of how the sampling concepts are used in practice.)
Chapter 12 contains a review of the main sampling designs and a set of exercises
that may require some thought in the selection of appropriate analyses. Appendix A
includes the mathematical derivations of many of the main results in the book. The
understanding of many of these derivations requires a working knowledge of ele-
mentary probability theory. SAS macros to implement methods from the book are
described in Appendix B; certain extensive data sets are detailed in Appendix C.
New to the Seventh Edition

What is new in the seventh edition? In survey sampling, the formulas for estimation
(especially variances of estimators) and sample size calculations can be, at best, te-
dious. With this revision, we provide a suite of interactive Excel tools that facilitate
computation. These tools allow students to see the formulas “in action,” which can
bring deeper understanding of their properties. In addition, by freeing the student
Preface xi
from rote arithmetic, he or she can focus on the bigger picture of method selection,
properties of methods, and so on.
Beginning with Chapter 4, each chapter has an electronic section (a Word file),
which has links to the tools for all the formulas presented in that chapter. In addition,
all of the numerical examples for each chapter are built in to the relevant tools; the
reader can insert the data from the examples into the tool by a simple click on a but-
ton. In the text itself, an icon is displayed by relevant presentations of formulas and
by numerical examples to remind the reader of the availability of the tools.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to students of Gerow, whose enthusiastic use of and feedback on the
Excel tools inspired us. Particular thanks are due to Nancy Carter and her students
at the California State University at Chico, who used an early version of the toolkit
and contributed immensely to its advancement by their critical and thoughtful use of
the tools.
Survey sampling plays an increasingly important role in today’s information
society. We hope this book helps students design better surveys and understand the
subtleties of survey results presented to them. In short, our goal is to improve the flow
of knowledge from data.
Richard Scheaffer
Lyman Ott
Ken Gerow
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1
Introduction
“Twenty-two percent of Americans doubt that the Holocaust ever occurred,” blasted
a news statement in 1993. How could this be? How could so many doubt the occur-
rence of one of the most significant events of the twentieth century—and, perhaps, of
all time? The answer lies in the poll, or survey, itself and in the difficulty of commu-
nicating with language, which always produces some degree of imprecision. The
question actually asked by the Roper Organization was as follows:
Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Nazi extermination
of the Jews never happened?
Among the respondents, 22% said “it seemed possible” and another 12% said they
did not know. Only 65% said it was “impossible it never happened.” The double neg-
ative in the question, it seems, confused the respondents to the point that they were
not sure how to phrase their answers. Picking up on this point, the Gallup Organiza-
tion conducted a follow-up poll that asked the question in more detailed form:
The term Holocaust usually refers to the killing of millions of Jews in Nazi death
camps during World War II. In your opinion, did the Holocaust: definitely happen,
probably happen, probably not happen, or definitely not happen?
Among the respondents to this poll, 83% said the Holocaust definitely happened and
another 13% said it probably happened. Only 1% said it definitely did not happen.
Quite a difference! In a separate poll, Gallup asked the Roper question again and
found that 37% of the respondents said it seemed possible that it never happened.
Polls and surveys increasingly guide political, research, and business decisions,
but they can be highly volatile and are little understood. An excellent study of current
trends in collecting and using data is the book Tainted Truth: The Manipulation of
Fact in America by Cynthia Crossen (1994, p. 14), in which she points out that
We are skeptical about statistical and factual information, but not as skeptical as we
think. . . . we respect numbers and we cannot help believing them. Yet, more and
more of the information we use to buy, elect, advise, acquit and heal has been
created not to expand our knowledge but to sell a product or advance a cause.
That’s what surveys do, they basically manufacture news.
1
2 Chapter 1 Introduction
We depend on data to make intelligent decisions, yet the data we see are often
tainted. An old saying on the use and misuse of computers was “garbage in–garbage
out,” but this has become “garbage in–gospel out” as more and more people get into
the numbers game. So what can we do? Part of the answer lies in education. Con-
sumers and producers of data with the serious, unbiased objective to get at the “truth”
must be educated in how surveys work, how good surveys can be designed, and how
survey data can be properly analyzed. That education is the purpose of this book.
Introductory courses stress that modem statistics is a theory of information with
inference as its objective. The target of our curiosity is a set of measurements, a pop-
ulation, that exists in fact or may be generated by repeated experimentation. The
medium of inference is the sample, which is a subset of measurements selected from
the population. We wish to make an inference about the population on the basis of
characteristics of the sample—or, equivalently, the information contained in the sam-
ple. For example, suppose a chain of department stores maintains customer charge
accounts. The amount of money owed by the company will vary from day to day as
new charges are made and some accounts are paid. Indeed, the set of amounts due to
the company on a given day represents a population of measurements of considerable
interest to the management. The population characteristic of interest is the total of all
measurements in the population or, equivalently, the daily total credit load.
Keeping track of the daily total credit associated with charge accounts may seem
to be a simple task for an electronic computer. However, the data must be updated
daily, and updating takes time. A simpler method for determining the total credit load
associated with the charge accounts is to randomly sample the population of accounts
on a given day, estimate the average amount owed per account, and multiply by the
number of accounts. In other words, we employ a statistical estimator to make an in-
ference about the total population. Elementary statistics tells us that this estimate can
be made as accurate as we wish simply by increasing the sample size. The resulting
estimate either is accompanied by a bound on the error of estimation or is expressed
as a confidence interval. Thus, information in the sample is used to make an inference
about the population.
Information from sample surveys affects almost every facet of our daily lives.
Such information determines government policies on, for example, the control of the
economy and the promotion of social programs. Opinion polls are the basis of much
of the news reported by the various news media. Ratings of television shows deter-
mine which shows are to be available for viewing in the future.
We usually think of the U.S. Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov/) as attempting
to contact every household in the country in order to count the population. But the de-
cennial census collects far more than simple counts. In the 2000 census, the short-
form questionnaire that went to all households had questions covering only tenure
(whether a housing unit is owned or rented), name, sex, age, relationship to house-
holder, Hispanic origin, and race. The long-form questionnaire, which went to a sam-
ple of one in six households, had the short-form questions plus additional questions
(40 or so) on such topics as the social characteristics of the population, marital
status, place of birth, citizenship, educational attainment, ancestry, language spoken
at home, veteran status, occupation, income, and housing conditions. The resulting
information is used by the federal government in determining allocations of funds to
states and cities. It is used by business to forecast sales, to manage personnel, and to
Introduction 3
establish future site locations. It is used by urban and regional planners to plan land
use, transportation networks, and energy consumption. It is used by social scientists
to study economic conditions, racial balance, and other aspects of the quality of life.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (http://www.bls.gov/) routinely con-
ducts over 20 surveys. Some of the best known and most widely used are the surveys
that establish the consumer price index (CPI). The CPI is a measure of price change
for a fixed-market basket of goods and services over time. It is used as a measure of
inflation and serves as an economic indicator for government policies. Businesses
have wage rates and pension plans tied to the CPI. Federal health and welfare pro-
grams, as well as many state and local programs, tie their bases of eligibility to the
CPI. Escalator clauses in rents and mortgages are based on the CPI. So we can see
that this one index, determined on the basis of sample surveys, plays a fundamental
role in our society.
The CPI is based on a number of surveys. Consumer Expenditure Surveys pro-
vide information on the buying habits of American consumers, including data on
their expenditures, income, and consumer unit (families and single consumers) char-
acteristics. These are matched with prices for the goods and services found by way of
data collected in 87 urban areas throughout the country and from approximately
23,000 retail and service establishments. Data on rents are collected from approxi-
mately 50,000 landlords or tenants.
One of the most noticeable of the BLS data collection efforts is the Current Pop-
ulation Survey (CPS), a monthly survey of households that provides a comprehen-
sive body of data on the labor force, employment, unemployment, and people not in
the labor force. Each month the CPS collects information on the labor force status of
the civilian noninstitutional population 15 years of age and older, although labor
force estimates are reported only for those 16 and older, using a probability sample
of approximately 60,000 households. Respondents are assured that all information
obtained is completely confidential and is used only for the purpose of statistical
analysis.
The BLS conducts other surveys. The National Compensation Survey provides
comprehensive measures of occupational earnings, compensation cost trends, and
benefit incidence for the purpose of measuring changes in labor costs and average
hourly employer cost per employee. National Longitudinal Surveys are designed to
gather information at multiple points in time on the labor market activities and other
significant life events of several groups of men and women and to serve as an impor-
tant tool for economists, sociologists, and other researchers. The Establishment
Survey collects information on employment hours and earnings for nonagricultural
business establishments. The survey on Occupational Outlook provides information
on future employment opportunities for a variety of occupations, projecting to
approximately ten years ahead. Details of the sampling and related methodologies
used by the BLS can be found in their Handbook of Methods.
Opinion polls are constantly in the news, and the names Gallup and Harris have
become well known to everyone. These polls, or sample surveys, reflect the attitudes
and opinions of citizens on everything from politics and religion to sports and enter-
tainment. Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/) specializes in tracking the public’s atti-
tudes concerning virtually every political, social, and economic issue of the day, in-
cluding highly sensitive or controversial subjects. The organization prides itself in
the fact that these polls have always been carried out independently and objectively,
with no polls paid for by special interest groups. Best known for the Harris Poll®,
Harris Interactive® (www.harrisinteractive.com) is a worldwide market research and
consulting firm that has pioneered the use of the Internet for market research.
The Nielson Company (http://www.nielsen.com/) uses sampling in a variety of
interesting and important ways. ACNielsen provides market research, information,
and analysis to the consumer products and service industries. Nielsen Media Re-
search, the famous TV ratings company, provides television-audience measurement
and related media research services. Nielsen NetRatings provides Internet-audience
measurement and analysis, an increasingly important component in the modern age.
Numerous research centers at universities are known for their expertise in sam-
pling, among them the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University
of Chicago and the Survey Research Center (SRC) at the University of Michigan.
NORC (http://www.norc.uchicago.edu/) engages in a variety of studies for govern-
ment agencies, educational institutions, foundations, and private corporations (in-
cluding a study of the Florida voting fiasco of 2000) but is probably best known for
the General Social Survey (GSS). The GSS assesses social changes in contemporary
America through a standard core of demographic and attitudinal variables, plus top-
ics of special interest selected for rotation. The SRC (http://www.isr.umich.edu/src/)
specializes in interdisciplinary social science research involving the collection and
analysis of data from scientific sample surveys, with a good balance among basic re-
search, applied survey-based research, and the propagation of the scientific method
of survey research through teaching and training.
Businesses conduct sample surveys for their internal operations, in addition to
using government surveys for crucial management decisions. Auditors estimate ac-
count balances and check on compliance with operating rules by sampling accounts.
Quality control of manufacturing processes relies heavily on sampling techniques.
One particular area of business activity that depends on detailed sampling activ-
ities is marketing. Decisions on which products to market, where to market them, and
how to advertise them are often made on the basis of sample survey data. The data
may come from surveys conducted by the firm that manufactures the product or may
be purchased from survey firms that specialize in marketing data. The Market Re-
search Corporation of America, for example, provides many types of marketing data
through the use of surveys, but some of the more interesting results come from its
National Menu Census. This survey samples families and observes their eating pat-
terns for two weeks. As many as 4000 families may participate during a year. Data
are obtained on the number of times a particular food item is served, how it is served,
how many people eat the item, and many other details, including what happens to the
leftovers. Such details are important for product development and advertising.
Many interesting examples of the practical uses of statistics in general and sam-
pling in particular can be found in Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown (Tanur, 1989).
In this book, you might want to look at some of the methods and uses of opinion
polling discussed in the articles “Opinion Polling in a Democracy” by George Gallup
and “Election Night on Television” by R. F. Link. Those interested in wildlife
ecology should read “The Plight of the Whales” by D. G. Chapman. Find out how
interrailroad and interairline billing is handled economically through sampling by
reading “How Accountants Save Money by Sampling” by John Neter.
Introduction 5
Because the objective of modern statistics is inference, you may question what
particular aspect of statistics will be covered in a course on sample survey design.
The answer to this question is twofold. First, we focus on the economics of purchas-
ing a specific quantity of information. More specifically, how can we design sam-
pling procedures that reduce the cost of a fixed quantity of information? Although
introductory courses in statistics acknowledge the importance of this subject, they
place major emphasis on basic concepts and on how to make inferences in specific
situations after the data have been collected. The second distinguishing feature of our
topic is that it is aimed at the particular types of sampling situations and inferential
problems most frequently encountered in business, the social sciences, and natural
resource management (timber, wildlife, and recreation) rather than in the physical
sciences.
Even the terminology of the social scientist differs from that of the physical sci-
entist. Social scientists conduct surveys to collect a sample, whereas physical scien-
tists perform experiments. Thus, we acknowledge that differences exist from one
field of science to another in the nature of the populations and the manner in which a
sample can be drawn. For example, populations of voters, financial accounts, or an-
imals of a particular species may contain only a small number of elements. In con-
trast, the conceptual population of responses generated by measuring the yield of a
chemical process is very large indeed. (You may recall that the properties of estima-
tors and test statistics covered in most introductory courses assume that the popula-
tion of interest is large relative to the sample.) Limitations placed on the sampling
procedure also vary from one area of science to another. Sampling in the biological
and physical sciences can frequently be performed under controlled experimental
conditions. Such control is frequently impossible in the social sciences, business, and
natural resource management. For example, a medical researcher might compare the
growth of rats subjected to two different drugs. For this experiment, the initial
weights of the rats and the daily intake of food can be controlled to reduce unwanted
variation in the experiment. In contrast, very few variables can be controlled in com-
paring the effect of two different television advertisements on sales for a given prod-
uct; no control is possible when studying the effect of environmental conditions on
the number of seals in the North Pacific Ocean.
In summary, this book is concerned with the peculiarities of sampling and infer-
ence commonly encountered in business, the social sciences, and natural resource
management. Specifically, we consider methods for actually selecting the sample
from an existing population and ways of circumventing various difficulties that arise.
Methods for designing surveys that capitalize on characteristics of the population are
presented along with associated estimators to reduce the cost for acquiring an esti-
mate of specified accuracy.
Chapter 2 presents some of the basic terminology of sampling, as well as a dis-
cussion of problems arising in sample survey design. Chapter 3 reviews some of the
basic concepts encountered in introductory statistics, including the fundamental
role that probability plays in making inferences. Simple random sampling, familiar
to the beginning student, is carefully presented in Chapter 4; it includes physical
procedures for actually selecting the sample. Subsequent chapters cover economical
methods for selecting a sample and associated methods for estimating population
parameters.
In reading this book, keep in mind that the ultimate objective of each chapter is
inference. Identify the sampling procedure associated with each chapter, the popula-
tion parameters of interest, their estimators, and the associated bounds on the errors
of estimation. Develop an intuitive understanding of and appreciation for the benefits
to be derived from specialized sampling procedures. Focus on the broad concepts and
do not become hypnotized by the formulas for estimators and variances that some-
times are unavoidably complicated. In short, focus on the forest rather than the trees.
Work some exercises, and the details will fall into place.
2
Elements of the Sampling Problem
2.1
Introduction
The objective of sample surveys is to make inferences about a population from in-
formation contained in a sample selected from that population. The inference often
takes the form of estimating a population mean (such as mean income per household)
or proportion (such as proportion of voters favoring a certain issue), and these are the
two types of problems that are discussed most in this book. We begin by considering
the particular problem of sampling from a finite collection of measurements (popu-
lation), and then observe what happens as the population size gets larger. In most
cases, the inference is in the form of an estimate of a population parameter, such as a
mean, total, or proportion, with a bound on the error of estimation. For those more
interested in methodology than theory, intuitive arguments are given whenever pos-
sible to justify the use of estimators.
In the first part of our discussion of the sampling problem (Section 2.2), we
introduce certain technical terms common to sample surveys. Next, in Section 2.3
we discuss how to select a sample from the population.
Each observation, or item, taken from the population contains a certain amount
of information about the population parameter or parameters of interest. Because in-
formation costs money, the experimenter must determine how much information he
or she should buy. Too little information prevents the experimenter from making
good estimates, whereas too much of it results in a waste of money. The quantity of
information obtained in the sample depends on the number of items sampled and on
the amount of variation in the data. This latter factor can be controlled somewhat by
the method of selecting the sample, called the design of the sample survey. The de-
sign of the survey and the sample size determine the quantity of information in the
sample pertinent to a population parameter, provided that accurate measurements are
obtained on each sampled element. Several sample survey designs are introduced in
Section 2.3.
If accurate measurements are not obtained on each element of the survey, then
other errors are introduced. Sources of these errors are discussed in Section 2.4.
7
8 Chapter 2 Elements of the Sampling Problem
Accuracy of measurements can be enhanced by good questionnaire construction,

discussed in Section 2.5. Section 2.6 presents the main elements we should carefully
check when planning a survey.
2.2
Technical Terms
Technical terminology is kept to minimum in this book; however, certain common
terms must be defined. Let us introduce these terms by way of an example. In a cer-
tain community, an opinion poll was conducted to determine public sentiment toward
a bond issue in an upcoming election. The objective of the survey was to estimate the
proportion of voters in the community who favored the bond issue.
DEFINITION 2.1
An element is an object on which a measurement is taken. ■
In our example, an element is a registered voter in the community. The measure-

ment taken on an element is the voter’s preference on the bond issue. Because measure-
ments are usually considered to be numbers, the experimenter can obtain numerical data
by recording a 1 for a voter in favor of the bond issue and a 0 for a voter not in favor.
DEFINITION 2.2
A population is a collection of elements about which we wish to make an
inference. ■
The population in our example is the collection of voters in the community. The
characteristic (numerical measurement) of interest for each member of this popula-
tion is his or her preference on the bond issue.
An important task for the investigator is to carefully and completely define the
population before collecting a sample. The definition must include a description of
the elements to be included and a specification of the measurements to be taken be-
cause these two components are interrelated. For example, if the population in the
bond issue study consists of registered voters, then we may want to collect informa-
tion on whether or not each sampled person plans to vote in the upcoming election.
Sampling the desired target population is not always possible, and the investigator
may have to collect additional information so that answers can be provided for ques-
tions of interest. In our example, if the population available for sampling is a list of
residents of the community, then information about whether each sampled person is,
in fact, a registered voter should be collected.
DEFINITION 2.3
Sampling units are nonoverlapping collections of elements from the population that
cover the entire population. ■
2.2 Technical Terms 9
In the bond issue example, a sampling unit may be a registered voter in the com-
munity. However, a more efficient process may be to sample households, which are
collections of elements, in order to obtain information on voter preferences. If house-
holds are the sampling units, they must be defined so that no voter in the population
can be sampled more than once and so that each voter has a chance of being selected
in the sample.
As the definition states, sampling units should be nonoverlapping. However, sit-
uations do arise in which the nonoverlapping condition is virtually impossible to
achieve. Field plot samples taken, for example, in studies of animal habitats are often
circular. The circular pattern is a convenient one to lay out and has advantages in
terms of the amount of walking necessary to study the plot. Obviously, circular plots
cannot cover a field without some overlap. The intent here is to suggest that the over-
lap should be as small as possible for efficient sampling.
If each sampling unit contains one and only one element of the population, then
a sampling unit and an element from the population are identical. This situation
arises if we sample individual voters rather than households within the community.
DEFINITION 2.4
A frame is a list of sampling units. ■
If we specify the individual voter as the sampling unit, a list of all registered vot-
ers may serve as a frame for a public opinion poll. Note that this frame will not in-
clude all the elements in the population because updating the list daily is impossible.
If we take the household as the sampling unit, then a telephone directory, a city di-
rectory, or a list of household heads obtained from census data can serve as a frame.
All these frames have some inadequacies. The lists will not be up to date. They
will contain many names of unregistered household heads, and hence a sample
drawn from the lists will contain many units that are not in the population. Also,
some registered voters may not appear on any of these lists. It is hoped, however, that
the gap between the frame and the population is small enough to permit inferences to
be made about the population on the basis of a sample drawn from the frame.
Some sampling schemes may involve multiple frames. In sampling voters, we
could start by sampling city blocks, then sampling housing units within those blocks,
and finally sampling voters within the selected housing units. One frame, then, is a list
of city blocks, and the second frame is a list of housing units within those blocks. The
second frame may not be available until the blocks are selected and studied in some
detail. As another example, estimation of crop yields in a state may involve sampling
from a list of growers to be interviewed and a list of fields to be objectively measured.
A frame needn’t be a list only. A map of an Arctic island might represent a study
area, from which random locations will be selected for estimating the abundance of
nesting geese on the island. Any suitable representation of the population of interest
that allows random selection of units can serve as a frame.
DEFINITION 2.5
A sample is a collection of sampling units drawn from a single frame or from multi-
ple frames. ■
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of Cortés, that he had come of his own free-will, and at the intimation
of the gods, to stay awhile with his guests. He told them to calm the
people with this assurance, and to disperse the gathering.
FOOTNOTES
[490] They had now been four days in Mexico, without going farther than the
palace, says Bernal Diaz. A page named Orteguilla, who had already acquired a
smattering of Aztec, was sent with the interpreters to ask this favor. Hist. Verdad.,
69.
[491] Soldiers who had been in Rome and Constantinople declared that never had
they seen so large and orderly a market, with so large an attendance. Bernal Diaz
indicates the site of the plaza to have been where the church of Santiago de
Tlatelulco was erected, and this still remains under the same name, over a mile
north-west-by-north of the central plaza of Mexico. Hist. Verdad., 70-1. The old
maps of Mexico already spoken of give the same site, and Alaman’s investigations
point out correctly the street which led and leads to it, although he has failed to
notice the above authorities, which give the very site. Disert., ii. 282-5.
[492] It has been generally accepted that the temple in the centre of the city was
visited, but Bernal Diaz, who is the only narrator of this excursion, states distinctly,
in several places, that the pyramid ascended was situated in the Tlatelulco
market-place, ‘adonde está aora señor Santiago, que se dize el Tlatelulco.’ Hist.
Verdad., 70-1. The description of the temple court and interior is somewhat
confused, and evidently combines points which belong to the central temple.
[493] Hence the contradictions between descriptions and views furnished by

different chroniclers, which have so greatly puzzled modern writers.
[494] Bernal Diaz, Hist. Verdad., 70-1. Sigüenza y Góngora, the well-known
Mexican scholar of the seventeenth century, follows Bernal Diaz. Anotaciones
Crit., MS., 1-2.
[495] ‘No dexarian de quedar aprobechados ... y satisfacer a su necesidad,’ says

Vetancurt, who knew the avarice of his countrymen too well to believe in denials.
Teatro, pt. iii. 131. Bernal Diaz says that Yañez, as the servant of Velazquez de
Leon and Lugo, revealed the discovery to them, and they told Cortés. The soldiers
all heard of it, and came quietly to gaze on the treasures, which rumor had already
located somewhere in the palace. ‘Being then a young man,’ says the old soldier,
‘and having never seen such wealth, I felt sure that there was not anything like it in
the world.’ Hist. Verdad., 72; Herrera, dec. ii. lib. viii. cap. ii. Tapia and Gomara
state that Cortés discovered the door-way as he was walking in his room one
evening, pondering on his plans for seizing Montezuma. ‘Cerro la puerta ... por no
escandalizar a Motecçuma, no se estoruasse por esso su prisiõ.’ Gomara, Hist.
Mex., 123; Tapia, Rel., in Icazbalceta, Col. Doc., ii. 579. Duran intimates that on
hearing of the existence of treasures in the palace, the Spaniards, including the
‘Santo Clérigo,’ occupied themselves more in searching for them than in
promoting the faith. They did not find them, however, till Montezuma revealed the
hiding-place, under the pressure of questions and, it seems, of hunger. Hist. Ind.,
MS., ii. 445-6.
[496] He refers to this promise in the second letter to the king, saying, ‘porque
certifiqué á V. A. que lo habria preso ó muerto ó súbdito.’ Cortés, Cartas, 52.
[497] ‘En la verdad era así é lo tinien acordado,’ affirms Tapia, Rel., in Icazbalceta,
Col. Doc., ii. 579. ‘Estas nueuas, falsas, o verdaderas,’ is the non-committing
phrase of Gomara. Hist. Mex., 123. Ixtlilxochitl takes firmer ground. ‘According to
an original letter in my possession, signed by the three heads of New Spain, and
written to his Majesty the emperor, our master, they exculpate Motecuhzoma and
the Mexicans of this and other charges, declaring them inventions of the
Tlascaltecs and of some Spaniards who feared that they would never see the hour
when they might leave the city and place in security the riches they had obtained.’
Hist. Chich., 296. Clavigero adopts the view that Cortés called for such testimony
from certain chiefs among his allies, whose dislike of the Mexicans would be sure
to prompt it. ‘Per giustificar vieppiù il suo attentato, e muovere i suoi Spagnuoli ad
eseguirlo, fece chiamar parecchie persone principali de’ suoi alleati (la cui
informazione dovrebbe sempre essergli sospettosa).’ Storia Mess., iii. 90-1.
Vetancurt has a story that, a drought prevailing at the time, the Spaniards induced
the heavens by means of masses and prayers to send rain. This made the priests
and idols jealous, and the emperor was prevailed on to rid himself of the
Spaniards. The Tlascaltecs learned of the plot and reported it. Teatro, pt. iii. 130.
[498] According to Bernal Diaz the members of this council suggested not only the
seizure but the reasons for it. Cortés responded that he had not been oblivious of
the danger, but saw not how the seizure could be effected. The captains proposed
to beguile the prince to their quarter and detain him. If Cortés hesitated they were
willing to undertake the task. The old soldier is evidently misled, as he was in the
scuttling affair, to assume too much credit for himself and his fellow-soldiers.
Cortés had no doubt adopted his common tactics, so frequently admitted by
Bernal Diaz himself, of inspiring his comrades to suggest what he had resolved
on. This is proved by the promise made to the emperor in his first letter, four
months before, to capture Montezuma.
[499] Bernal Diaz, Hist. Verdad., 73, followed by a number of other writers, states
that the letter was received at Mexico the morning after this meeting, but it has
been shown that he must be wrong. He mentions as one of the statements in the
letter that the Totonacs were in revolt, and it is probable that Cortés may have said
so to show the soldiers that retreat was cut off, and that seizure was the only
recourse.
[500] As both Peter Martyr and Gomara call it.
[501] The neglect of this less speedy plan does indicate that the rumors of danger
were credited to a great extent at least.
[502] Hist. Verdad., 74. Cortés in his quiet way writes to the king that, after
passing six days in the great city, and finding that for various reasons ‘it suited the
royal interest and our safety to have this lord in my power, and not wholly at liberty,
lest he change in the proposal and desire manifested to serve Y. H.... I resolved to
seize and place him in the quarter where I was.’ Cartas, 88-9.
[503] ‘Mandó que su gente dos á dos ó cuatro á cuatro se fuesen tras él ... é con
él entramos hasta treinta españoles é los demas quedaban á la puerta de la casa,
é en un patio della,’ says Tapia, who appears to have been one of those who
entered. Rel., in Icazbalceta, Col. Doc., ii. 579.
[504] ‘Cõ armas secretas,’ says Gomara, Hist. Mex., 123, and probably they did
bear extra weapons beneath their cloaks.
[505] ‘Y otras hijas de señores á algunos de mi compañía.’ Cortés, Cartas, 89. But
the customary mark of favor was to give them from his harem. See Native Races,
ii.
[506] ‘Per non dar disgusto al Re, e per avere occasione di farla Cristiana,’ is
Clavigero’s excuse for the acceptance. Storia Mess., iii. 93. Brasseur de
Bourbourg, and some other writers, assume that Cortés declined; but the original
authorities all say or intimate that he accepted. Even Cortés himself writes in his
letter to the emperor, ‘despues ... de haberme él dado algunas joyas de oro y una
hija suya,’ etc. Cartas, 89. ‘Le persuadió,’ says Ixtlilxochitl, Hist. Chich., 290.
Gomara is even more explicit, and Herrera says that Montezuma insisted, ‘porque
queria tener nietos de hombre tan valeroso.’ dec. ii. lib. viii. cap. ii. The affair is
perhaps less important in itself than as index to the character of Cortés, who could
accept so intimate an offer with one hand while he prepared a blow with the other.
It might also be made to indicate that Montezuma could have had no base designs
against him when he made the uncalled-for offer of intrusting a daughter (if such
she was) to his keeping. Still the imperial character would not have suffered had it
been shown that this was but an artifice to lull his intended victim into a false
security.
[507] Some authors, like Herrera and Torquemada, say that he denied all
knowledge of the occurrence, calling it an invention of enemies.
[508] Ixtlilxochitl, Hist. Chich., 297. ‘Q̄ tenia la figura de Vitzilopuchtli,’ Gomara,
123; and so says Bernal Diaz. Tapia states that Montezuma told Cortés to send
two Spaniards with the messengers; but he doubtless declined to risk two lives on
such a trip. Rel., in Icazbalceta, Col. Doc., ii. 583-4.
[509] ‘Ingrato rey!’ exclaims Gallo, in commenting upon this surrender of a devoted
officer. Hombres Ilust. Mex., i. 318.
[510] Bernal Diaz makes Cortés accuse the emperor of perfidy, and of having
instigated the Cholula massacre. Hist. Verdad., 74. But this he would hardly do,
since his purpose was clearly to persuade, not to arouse anger.
[511] ‘No querria començar guerra, ni destruir aquesta Ciudad ... que si alboroto, ò
vozes daua, que luego sereis muerto de aquestos mis Capitanes, que no los
traigo para otro efeto,’ is Bernal Diaz’ blunt version. Hist. Verdad., 74.
[512] ‘Auia tenido platica de su idolo Huichilobos ... que convenia para su salud, y
guardar su vida, estar con nosotros.’ Id., 75.
[513] ‘Estuuieron mas de media hora en estas platicas.’ Id., 74. Tapia and others
say four hours, which is unlikely.
[514] ‘Porque mas vale que desta vez asseguremos nuestras vidas, ò las
perdamos.’ Bernal Diaz, Hist. Verdad., 75.
[515] ‘Era, ó muy falto de ánimo, ó pusilánime, ó muy prudente.’ Oviedo, iii. 289.
‘En él se cumplió lo que de él se decia, que todo hombre cruel es cobarde,
aunque á la verdad, era ya llegada la voluntad de Dios.’ Ixtlilxochitl, Rel., 411.
[516] Bernal Diaz intimates clearly enough that no demonstration was made till
after his arrival. Hist. Verdad., 75. And so does Cortés. ‘Llorando lo tomaron en
ella [the litter] con mucho silencio, y así nos fuimos hasta el aposento donde
estaba, sin haber alboroto en la ciudad, aunque se comenzó á mover. Pero sabido
por el dicho Muteczuma, envió a mandar que no lo hubiese; y así, hubo toda
quietud.’ Cartas, 90. Ixtlilxochitl, however, allows Montezuma to stay long enough
in his palace, after ordering the litter, to enable the lords and nobles to come and
offer their services. A delay like this, which the Spaniards certainly never could
have permitted, might have given time for the tumultuous gathering which he
describes. Hist. Chich., 297. Prescott, in following this version, makes the emperor
so far overstep his usual dignity as to ‘call out’ to the people to disperse. ‘Tambien
detuvieron consigo á Itcuauhtzin, gobernador del Tlatilulco,’ says Sahagun, while
the leading nobles ‘cuando fue preso Mocthecuzoma le desampararon y se
escondieron.’ Hist. Conq., 25.
The seizure has, like the equally prominent episodes of the massacre at
Cholula, and the scuttling of the fleet, aroused no little comment in justification or
condemnation. ‘Now that I am old,’ says Bernal Diaz, ‘I stop to consider the heroic
deeds then performed, and I do say that our achievements were not effected by
ourselves, but were all brought about by God; for what men have existed in the
world who, less than 450 soldiers in number, dared to enter into so strong a city as
Mexico, larger than Venice, and so remote from Castile, to seize so great a lord?’
Hist. Verdad., 76. ‘Never Greek or Roman, nor of other nation, since kings exist,
performed a like deed, only Fernando Cortés, to seize Motecçuma, a king most
powerful, in his own house, in a place most strong, amid an infinity of people,
while possessing but 450 companions.’ Gomara, Hist. Mex., 124. Commenting on
this, Torquemada adds that ‘it was indeed a deed for daring never seen, and must
be attributed to God rather than to human heart.’ i. 458. Solis of course fails not to
extol the genius and daring of his hero, whose deed ‘appears rather in the light of
a fable’ than in consonance with simple history. Hist. Mex., i. 448. ‘A deed which
makes one tremble even to conceive, and much more to carry out. But God had
so determined it.’ Ixtlilxochitl, Hist. Chich., 296. ‘History contains nothing parallel to
this event, either with respect to the temerity of the attempt, or the success of the
execution,’ etc. Robertson’s Hist. Am., ii. 60. ‘An expedient, which none but the
most daring spirit, in the most desperate extremity, would have conceived.’
Prescott’s Mex., ii. 159. ‘An unparalleled transaction. There is nothing like it, I
believe, in the annals of the world.’ Helps’ Cortés, ii. 351. Clavigero is less carried
away by the incident, for he sees therein the hand of God. Nevertheless, he
sympathizes with Montezuma. Storia Mess., iii. 95, etc. Pizarro y Orellana finds
the deed eclipsed by the similar achievement, with a smaller force, under his
namesake Pizarro. Varones Ilvstres, 89-90. And later Mexican writers, like
Bustamante, see, naturally enough, nothing but what is detestable in the incident,
for according to the native records which form their gospel, Montezuma was
guiltless of any base intents. Unfortunately for them, these very records paint him
a blood-thirsty despot who punishes the slightest offence against himself, even
when merely suspected, with the most atrocious cruelty; one who is continually
seeking his aggrandizement at the expense of inoffensive, peace-loving tribes,
who oppresses not only conquered peoples, but his own subjects, with
extortionate taxes and levies to satisfy his inordinate appetite for pomp and for
new conquests. These records also admit that he had repeatedly sent sorcerers, if
not armies, to entrap and destroy the Spaniards. He who looked calmly on
hecatombs of his own subjects, slaughtered before his very eyes, would not
hesitate to condemn strangers for plotting against the throne which was dearer to
him than life itself. The Spaniards may have anticipated events considerably, but
there is no doubt that numerous personages, from Cuitlahuatzin downward, were
bitterly opposed to their enforced guests, and they would sooner or later have
realized the rumors which the allies began to circulate. Placed as he was, Cortés’
duty to himself, to the men intrusted to him, to his king, and to the cause of
religion, as then regarded, required him to give heed to such rumors, and, after
weighing their probability, to take the precautionary measure of seizing the
monarch, since retreat not only appeared fraught with disaster and dishonor, but
would be regarded as a neglect of opportunity and of duty. With Cortés, naught but
the first steps in assuming the conquest, and in usurping certain credit and means,
can be regarded as crimes, and the former of these was forced upon him by
circumstances of his age and surroundings. Every project, then, conceived by him
for the advancement of his great undertaking must redound to his genius as
soldier and leader. Of course, among these projects appear many which did not
advance the great object, and which must be condemned. But where do we find
greatness wholly free from stain?
CHAPTER XVIII.
DOUBLY REFINED DEALINGS.
1519-1520.
Hollow Homage to the Captive King—Montezuma has his Wives and

Nobles—He Rules his Kingdom through the Spaniards—The Playful
Page—Liberality of the Monarch—The Sacred Treasures—Cortés
Resents the Insults of the Guard—Diversions—Quauhpopoca, his Son
and Officers, Burned Alive—Plantations Formed—Villa Rica Affairs—
Vessels Built—Pleasure Excursions.
A pompous reception was accorded the imperial prisoner. With

no small ceremony was he conducted to apartments adjoining those
of Cortés, as selected by himself, and there surrounded by all
accustomed comforts and every show of greatness. At hand were
his favorite wives, his most devoted servants; he held court daily,
received ambassadors, issued orders, and with the aid of his learned
jurists administered justice. To outward appearance the monarch
was as absolute as ever; yet Montezuma knew that his glory had
departed, that the continued forms of greatness were hollow, and
that his power was but the power of a puppet. He was wise enough
to know that a strong man is not to be trusted who is officiously kind
to a weak one.
Henceforth the power of the nation, in the hands of these
insidious strangers, was to be directed against himself. It was a
cunning policy, craftily conceived and deftly executed.
Cortés took care that everything round the prisoner should move
smoothly, and that his presence in the Spanish quarters should
appear to the natives a voluntary rather than an enforced visit. To his
more intimate lords and subjects, however, who knew better his
condition, and who sometimes urged him to return to his palace, the
poor captive would say, “Ah, no! it is the will of the gods that I remain
with these men and be guided by their counsel.” But on no account
must the imperial influence be allowed for the present to decline
before the people. The deception must be continued, and the dignity
of the sovereign upheld by a deferential attention as profound as that
which was shown before his imprisonment. Daily, after prayers, the
Spanish general came to pay his respects, attended by several of his
captains, more frequently Alvarado, Velazquez, and Ordaz, and to
receive the imperial commands with respect to his comforts,
pleasures, and duties. On these occasions, and indeed whenever he
appeared before the emperor, says Bernal Diaz, Cortés set the
example to his followers by doffing his hat and bowing low, and
never did he presume to sit in the royal presence until requested to
do so.
Yet a most unpleasant reminder to the monarch of his
circumscribed authority was the ever present guard in and around
his apartments.[517] This was under the command of Juan Velazquez
de Leon, who enforced the strictest watch, particularly when it
became known that Montezuma’s courtiers lost no opportunity to
urge escape, and that he lent them a not unwilling ear, despite the
professed desire to remain with the Spaniards. Among the several
schemes with this object are mentioned bored walls, tunnels beneath
the palace, and an attempt by the emperor himself to leap from the
summit of the building into a safe receptacle prepared for him.[518]
Espionage was also established on the emperor in his
intercourse with courtiers, by placing in the apartment the page
Orteguilla, who had acquired a fair knowledge of Aztec. Of
prepossessing appearance, agreeable and sprightly in manner, the
youth became a favorite with the captive king. Among other things,
the little spy gave the monarch an insight into Spanish customs and
proceedings at home and abroad, into the power and grandeur of the
Castilian king, and into the mysteries of the faith. Being constantly
together they grew familiar, Montezuma delighting to play pranks on
the boy, throwing aloft his hat, and laughing at his efforts to regain it.
These tricks were always followed by a liberal reward.[519]
Montezuma was indeed most liberal with all who came in contact
with him, as became the character of a great and rich prince. Not
only jewels, robes, and curiosities, but male and female slaves, were
freely dispensed, partly no doubt with a view to secure good
treatment from the guard. A considerate thoughtfulness and gentle
manner added to his popularity, and “whenever he ordered,” says
the old soldier, “we flew to obey.” The inconsiderate pride and
selfishness of the independent monarch seems to have disappeared
in the prisoner, yet like the captive hawk he was submissive only to
his masters. Orteguilla kept him informed of the rank and character
of the men, and became the recognized medium for his favors. He
represented, for instance, that Bernal Diaz longed to be the master
of a pretty maiden, and Montezuma, having noticed the exceeding
deference of the soldier, called him, saying that he would bestow on
him a fine young woman, whom he must treat well, for she was the
daughter of a chief. He also gave him three quoits of gold and two
loads of robes.[520] The gift came from the emperor’s harem, from
which he frequently drew to please those whom he delighted to
honor. The vacancies thus created were filled from noble families,
who like those of more advanced countries regarded it an honor for a
daughter to occupy the position of royal concubine. After his
imprisonment Montezuma seems to have disposed of his wives quite
rapidly, a number of them falling to leading Spaniards.[521] To Cortés
he offered for the second time a daughter, prettier than the one given
him on the day of his capture, but in this instance the gift was
declined in favor of Olid, who accepted her, together with any
number of presents, and was henceforth treated as a relative by her
imperial father. Both she and the sister with Cortés were baptized.
[522]
The soldiers generally were by no means forgotten in the

distribution of women and other gifts, and in course of time the
quarter became so crowded with male and female attendants that
Cortés found it necessary to issue an order reducing the number to
one female servant for each man. Informed of this, Montezuma
instructed his mayordomo to provide good accommodation and
sustenance for them elsewhere.[523]
Encouraged by this generosity, Cortés approached him one day
regarding the secreted treasures, which had been so long respected,
but which he desired to have in his possession. He regretted to say
that his graceless soldiers had come upon the treasure-chamber,
and regardless of his instructions had abstracted a number of jewels.
The emperor hastened to reassure him; perhaps he understood the
hint. The contents of the chamber belonged to the gods, he said; but
the gold and silver might freely be taken so long as the rest was left.
[524] He would give more, if required. Cortés did not scruple to avail
himself of the permission, by appropriating for himself and his
intimate friends a large share. So charged the discontented soldiers,
but the main portion appears to have been reserved for the general
distribution not long after. Although the most valuable part of this
collection had been freely surrendered, the soldiers hesitated not to
seize also upon other effects, such as liquid amber and several
hundred loads of cotton fabrics. Cortés wished to restore them, but
Montezuma declined, saying that he never received anything back.
[525]
On another occasion the Spaniards discovered the imperial
warehouse for cacao beans, the most common currency of the
country, and for some time made nightly raids on it with their Indian
carriers. Cortés proposed to mete out punishment for this, but finding
that Alvarado was a leading culprit, he dropped the matter with a
private reprimand.[526]
Montezuma’s good nature was imposed upon in more ways than
one, and with all his kindness he could not command consideration
from the rougher soldiers and sailors. One of the guard, after being
requested, with a gift, to discontinue certain unseemly acts, repeated
the offence in the hope of receiving another bribe; but Montezuma
now reported him to his captain, and he was removed. Cortés, who
was determined to enforce respect for the captive, inflicted severe
punishment on offenders in this respect. Tired of patrol duty, Pedro
Lopez said one day in the hearing of Montezuma, “Confusion on this
dog! By guarding him constantly, I am sick at stomach unto death!”
Told of this, the general had the man lashed in the soldiers’ hall, and
this regardless of his standing as a good soldier and an archer of
great skill. Another who showed insolence to the emperor was
ordered hanged, but escaped with a lashing at the intercession of
the captains and of Montezuma.[527] This strictness insured respect
not only for the emperor, but for Cortés, so that the quarter became
most exemplary for its good order.[528]
The Spaniards united heartily with the native courtiers to
entertain the captive and to remove so far as possible whatever
might remind him of his lost liberty. He found great delight in their
military exercises, which recalled the faded prowess of his youth and
exhibited the tactics which contributed so powerfully to Spanish
supremacy over native arms. He also enjoyed sports, and among
games the totoloque was his favorite. This consisted in throwing
small golden balls at pieces of the same metal set up as targets at a
certain distance. Five points won the stakes. Cortés often played it
with him, and Alvarado, who kept count for the general, usually
marked more points than he was entitled to. Montezuma playfully
protested against such marking, although what Cortés won he gave
to the Mexican attendants, while Montezuma presented his gains to
the Spanish guard.[529]
Montezuma was at times allowed to visit his palaces, and to
enjoy the hunting-field, but these trips were of rare occurrence,
owing to the danger of popular demonstrations.[530] On such
occasions, says Cortés, the escort of prominent Mexicans numbered
at least three thousand. The first time Montezuma requested this
privilege it was for the purpose of offering prayer and sacrifice at the
great temple, as required by his gods, he said; and although Cortés
did not like the arrangement, his prisoner convinced him that this
public demonstration was necessary, in order to show the people
that he was not kept in compulsory confinement, but remained with
the strangers at the order of the deity he was about to consult. Four
captains were appointed to escort him with a guard of one hundred
and fifty soldiers, and he was warned that any attack upon them, or
any attempt at rescue, would result in his own death. He was carried
in a rich litter, attended by a brilliant procession of nobles, and
preceded, according to custom, by a dignitary bearing the triple
wand which indicated that the emperor was approaching and
demanded loyal veneration.
On reaching the temple the imperial worshipper stepped forth,
leaning on the arms of his relatives, and was assisted to the summit.
Human sacrifices had been forbidden, and Father Olmedo came to
watch over the observance of the order; but it appears that four
captives had been offered during the night, and despite the
remonstrances of the friar the attendant rites went on.[531] The
captains thought it prudent not to exceed a protest, and
congratulated themselves when the ceremony was ended and the
emperor safely back in their quarters.
A fortnight after the seizure of Montezuma, Quauhpopoca
arrived in the capital, accompanied by his son and fifteen of his staff.
He made his entry with the pomp befitting a powerful governor and a
relative of the sovereign, and hastened to the palace. As was
customary with subjects who were about to appear in the imperial
presence, the rich robes were covered with a coarse cloak, in token
of humiliation. His master received him with a stern countenance,
and signified his displeasure at the proceedings which under pretext
of his authority had caused loss of Spanish life. No attention was
paid to explanations, and he was surrendered with his followers to
the Spaniards, to be dealt with as they thought fit.[532] Cortés held a
trial: he was a shrewd inquisitor, and his sentence was sure to
accord with his own interests. “Are you a vassal of Montezuma?” he
asked of Quauhpopoca. “What else could I be?” was the reply. “Did
you attack Spaniards by his order?” The prisoner was in a most
serious dilemma. At first he refused to implicate the emperor, but
finding that his fate was sealed he confessed having acted under his
orders.[533] This could not avail him, however, for in obeying his
master he had injured the subjects and outraged the laws and
majesty of the Spanish king, who was sovereign of all, and this
demanded punishment.
The fact was that Spanish prestige, on which so much
depended, had suffered through the machinations of the governor,
and it was considered necessary to restore it. Therefore it was
decreed that Quauhpopoca, with his son and officers, should be
burned alive in the plaza, before the palace. Cortés availed himself
of the opportunity to seize all the arms in the arsenals,[534] and
therewith build a pyre worthy such noted offenders.
When all was ready Cortés presented himself before the
emperor, and announced with a severe tone that the evidence of the
condemned showed their acts to have been authorized by him, and
as a life called for a life, according to Spanish laws, he deserved
death. Cortés, however, loved him—for himself, his generosity, and
services he loved him too dearly to let justice have its course, and
would take on himself to appease its demands by a nominal
punishment.[535] He then turned on his heel, while one of the
soldiers clasped a pair of shackles round the prisoner’s ankles, and
the mighty emperor of the Aztecs was ironed. For a moment
Montezuma stood rooted to the floor. Then he groaned with anguish
at this the greatest indignity ever offered his sacred person. He
trembled with apprehension at what might yet follow. His courtiers
were no less afflicted, and with tears in their eyes they knelt to
lessen the weight at least of the shameful bonds, and with bandages
to relieve the imperial limbs.[536]
Meanwhile the troops formed an imposing cordon in front of the
palace to prevent a rescue of the condemned as they were led out
and tied to the stake. Writhing with pain, yet mute as became brave
warriors, with the ascending smoke from Aztec shields and darts
they rendered up their anguished souls. It was rare strategy thus
with the offenders to destroy the means of offence. Supposing that
the execution was by imperial sanction, the populace tacitly
assented, gazing on the horrid spectacle with pallid faces and bated
breath. Though accustomed to scenes like this in connection with
their religious festivals, it appeared terrible when perpetrated by
foreigners, to the dreary sound of muffled drums.[537]
All being over, Cortés reëntered the apartments of Montezuma
with his captains, and kneeling down he himself took off the fetters,
declaring that he felt deeply grieved at the infliction, for he loved him
as a brother. The monarch became almost hysteric with joy at this
deliverance, and with falling tears he expressed himself in abject
terms of gratitude, like the dog licking the hand which has chastised
it. Every fresh incident reveals some new trait in the character of this
unhappy man which calls for pity or contempt. “Yet further,”
continued Cortés, “to show my deep regard and confidence, you are
now at full liberty to return to your own house.” But Montezuma
understood well enough that these were but words, an empty offer;
indeed he had been informed by the well prompted page that,
although the general might wish to release him, the Spanish captains
would never permit it.[538] He accordingly expressed his thanks, and
said that he preferred to remain with him, giving as a reason that,
were he free, the importunities of his relatives and nobles to attack
the Spaniards might prevail over his friendship for them and their
king, and this would entail not only loss of life on both sides, but the
ruin of the city. Thereupon Cortés embraced him with every
appearance of deep devotion, and said, “Next to my king you shall
be king; vast as are your possessions, I will make you ruler of more
and greater provinces.”[539]
We can imagine the words by which the Spaniards might justify
to themselves the death of Quauhpopoca, but we cannot understand
the object in degrading the emperor in the eyes of his subjects—an
act which they had hitherto been so careful to avoid—unless it was
to lift themselves in their own esteem and that of the natives, far
above the highest American princes and powers, and to impress the
sacredness of their persons on the minds of the Indians. Further
than this, they seemed to think some punishment of the emperor
necessary, either because he had authorized the Nautla outrage, or
because he had countenanced it by neglecting to reprimand the
perpetrators. At all events, the effect was salutary, so much so that
Spaniards were to be seen wandering singly about the country
without fear of molestation.[540]
This effect, which extended also to adjoining independent
provinces, enabled Cortés to carry out the long-cherished project of
gathering information on the condition of the country, particularly its
political feeling and its mineral resources. Montezuma readily gave
the aid requested by providing maps and officials to guide the
exploring parties. The first investigations were directed to the upper
parts of Rio Zacatula and to Miztecapan, some eighty leagues south
of the capital, and to the northern branches of the Papaloapan,
whence most of the gold was said to come.[541] The Zacatula party
was headed by Pilot Gonzalo de Umbría, in compensation perhaps
for the loss of his feet at Villa Rica. He returned before the other
parties, within the forty days allowed for the trip, and brought about
three hundred pesos’ worth of gold dust, washed out in dishes from
three rivers, by order of the cacique. Two chiefs accompanied him,
bearing gold presents of nearly the same value as the dust, and
offering allegiance to the Spaniards in the name of their caciques.
[542] Small as was the treasure, it afforded a substantial proof of the
glowing report of Umbría. He had passed through three beautiful and
fertile provinces, filled with towns containing buildings equal to any in
Spain. He described a fortress finer in appearance and stronger than
the castle of Búrgos, and the people of Tamazulapan as most
superior in dress and intelligence.[543]
Another party, under one Pizarro,[544] proceeded south-

eastward, through Tochtepec and Malinaltepec, both of which
yielded them gold dust to the value of about three hundred pesos.
Descending along the northern fork of Papaloapan, they reached the
country of the Chinantecs, hostile to the Aztecs who had taken some
of the border towns. Their independence had not otherwise been
affected, owing to their mountain fastnesses, their warlike spirit, and
their formidable weapons, which were pikes about twenty feet in
length. They invited the Spaniards to enter, but would not allow the
Mexican escort to cross the boundary. The guides warned Pizarro
not to trust himself to what they termed a treacherous people, but
after a brief hesitation he advanced and received a hearty reception.
Aid was given to search for gold, of which seven hundred pesos’
worth was obtained from several rivers, most of it in rough grains.
[545]On his return he brought two chiefs, who bore presents of gold
from their chief cacique Cohuatlicamac, and tendered his allegiance
on condition that the Aztecs should not be allowed to enter the
country. Finding the inhabitants so friendly and the province rich in
resources, Pizarro left four of his small party behind to establish
cacao and maize plantations and to search for more gold.[546]
The project appears to have found favor with Cortés, who

besought Montezuma to form plantations for the king also in his
adjoining province of Malinaltepec. This was at once attended to,
and within two months four substantial houses and a vast reservoir
had been constructed, and a large tract of land brought under
cultivation, the improvements being valued at twenty thousand pesos
de oro.[547]
Another important object was to find a better harbor than Villa
Rica, and the emperor being consulted, he at once ordered a map to
be made, which showed very accurately not only the rivers and inlets
already known to the Spaniards, between Pánuco and Tabasco, but
the yet unknown Rio Goazacoalco, beyond the Mexican border. This
being said to have a large and deep entrance, Cortés availed himself
of Ordaz’ offer to examine it. Ten men, chiefly sailors and pilots, and
some guides, accompanied him, and authority was given to take
escorts from the frontier garrisons. He proceeded to
Chalchiuhcuecan or San Juan de Ulua, and thence followed the
coast examining the inlets.
On reaching the frontier complaints became numerous against
the native garrisons by reason of raids and outrages, and supported
by the chiefs who attended him he reprimanded the commanders,
threatening them with the fate of Quauhpopoca unless they
restrained the troops. They used to extend their raids into the
Goazacoalco province, but were at present somewhat guarded,
owing to a repulse wherein a number of comrades had perished.[548]
Ordaz’ proceedings served him well, for Tuchintlec, the cacique
of this province, sent a deputation of leading men to extend a
welcome, and furnished canoes and men to aid in sounding the river.
The bar was found to be at least two fathoms and a half deep at low
water, and above this, for twelve leagues, the soundings showed
fully five fathoms, with a prospect of an equal depth for some
distance, whereupon the pilots expressed the opinion that the
channel might be a strait leading to the southern sea.[549] Ordaz
received not only presents of gold and pretty women for himself, but
brought with him messengers bearing jewels, tiger-skins, feathers,
and precious stones for Cortés, together with an offer of allegiance
and tribute similar to those already tendered by the neighbors of
Tabasco. His report, which extolled the agricultural resources as well
as the port, induced the general to send with the returning
messengers another party to examine these features more
thoroughly and to test the disposition of the inhabitants. They again
sounded the river, selected a town site, and reported in favor of a
settlement. The cacique also expressed himself eager to receive
settlers, and offered to begin at once the construction of houses.
This decided Cortés to establish a colony on the river, and in April
Juan Velazquez and Rodrigo Rangel set out with one hundred and
fifty men to carry out the project. This, however, was not destined to
be so speedily accomplished.[550]
Meanwhile Villa Rica had been a source of no small anxiety to
Cortés. He had appointed Alonso de Grado to fill the vacant place of
Escalante, as commander of the fortress, and as his lieutenant in the
district. Grado was a man of agreeable presence and conversation,
and with some fame among his comrades as a writer and musician,
but more of a braggart than a soldier, with decided sympathies in
favor of Velazquez. Indeed, Bernal Diaz charges him with having
been the ringleader of the mutinous demonstration at Tlascala.
Cortés was well acquainted with the character of the man; but his
glib tongue had evidently overcome the prudence of the general, or
else he preferred a less bold spirit than Escalante’s at this post.
“Now, Señor Grado,” said he in handing him his commission, “here is
the fulfilment of your long felt desire of going to Villa Rica. Take care
of the fort, treat the Indians well, and do not undertake any
expeditions like that of Escalante, or you may meet his fate.” “In
saying this,” adds Bernal Diaz, “he gave us soldiers a wink, which we
readily enjoyed, knowing well enough that Grado would not venture
to do so, even under penalty of disgrace.” The office of alguacil
mayor, held by the former commander, was not included in the
present commission, but was given to Sandoval, and when Grado
remonstrated he was promised compensation in due time.
On reaching Villa Rica the evil nature of the man came to the
front. He assumed pompous demeanor, and expected the settlers to
serve him as a great lord, while the Totonacs were pressed for gold
and female slaves. The fort and the duties connected with it were
neglected, and the commander spent his time in gormandizing and
gambling, not to mention the secret efforts to undermine his
general’s influence and to gain adherents for Velazquez. This soon
reached the ears of Cortés, who felt not a little annoyed at having
trusted such a fellow. He recognized the necessity of intrusting this
district to one thoroughly devoted to himself, since a fleet from Cuba
might at any moment arrive and create mischief. Therefore he sent
Sandoval, who was brave and prudent, as well as loyal, and with him
Pedro de Ircio, a former equerry, of insinuating manners and
gossiping tongue, whom Sandoval elevated to a commanding
position.[551]
Grado was immediately sent up to Mexico under a native guard,
and when he arrived, with hands tied and a noose round his neck,
the soldiers derided him, while Cortés felt half inclined to hang the
fellow. After a few days’ exposure in the stocks he was released, and
soon his smooth persuasion paved once more a way to the favor of
his general, with whom he became so reconciled as to obtain the
office of contador not long afterward.
Among the instructions to Sandoval was one to send to Mexico
two shipwrights with ship-building implements, also chains, iron,
sails, rope, compass, and everything needful to fit out four vessels
which had been placed on the stocks shortly after the seizure of the
emperor.[552] The object was to afford a means for the ready
movement of troops and for escape in case of an uprising, when the
bridges would doubtless be raised. In asking Montezuma for aid to

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(eBook PDF) Elementary Survey

Sampling 7th Edition

Chapter 2 Elements of the Sampling Problem 7

Chapter 3 Some Basic Concepts of Statistics 48

Chapter 4 Simple Random Sampling 75

4.3 Estimation of a Population Mean and Total 80

Chapter 5 Stratified Random Sampling 115

Chapter 6 Ratio, Regression, and Difference Estimation 168

Chapter 7 Systematic Sampling 217

7.3 Estimation of a Population Mean and Total 221

Chapter 8 Cluster Sampling 251

Chapter 9 Two-Stage Cluster Sampling 289

Chapter 10 Estimating the Population Size 312

Chapter 11 Supplemental Topics 336

Chapter 12 Summary 368

Selected Answers 429

Sampling from Real Populations

New to the Seventh Edition

Accuracy of measurements can be enhanced by good questionnaire construction,

In our example, an element is a registered voter in the community. The measure-

[493] Hence the contradictions between descriptions and views furnished by

[495] ‘No dexarian de quedar aprobechados ... y satisfacer a su necesidad,’ says

[500] As both Peter Martyr and Gomara call it.

Hollow Homage to the Captive King—Montezuma has his Wives and

A pompous reception was accorded the imperial prisoner. With

The soldiers generally were by no means forgotten in the

Another party, under one Pizarro,[544] proceeded south-

The project appears to have found favor with Cortés, who

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