Packaged Food in Japan

Packaged Food in Japan
Euromonitor International
December 2020
PACKAGED FOOD IN JAPAN Passport i
LIST OF CONTENTS AND TABLES

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................. 1
COVID-19 impact on packaged food ........................................................................................ 1
COVID-19 country impact ......................................................................................................... 1
Company response................................................................................................................... 2
Retailing shift ............................................................................................................................ 3
Foodservice vs retail split ......................................................................................................... 3
What next for packaged food? .................................................................................................. 3
FOODSERVICE ........................................................................................................................... 4
Sales to Foodservice ................................................................................................................ 4
Consumer Foodservice............................................................................................................. 5
Category Data .......................................................................................................................... 7
Table 1 Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2015-
2020 ............................................................................................................. 7
Table 2 Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth
2015-2020 .................................................................................................... 7
Table 3 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume
2020-2025 .................................................................................................... 8
Table 4 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: %
Volume Growth 2020-2025 .......................................................................... 8
Chart 1 Packaged Food Value Sales Growth Scenarios: 2018-2025........................ 9
Chart 2 Packaged Food Impact of Drivers on Value Sales: 2017-2025 .................... 9
MARKET DATA .......................................................................................................................... 10
Table 5 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2015-2020 ........................ 10
Table 6 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Value 2015-2020 ........................... 11
Table 7 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020 ....... 11
Table 8 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020 .......... 12
Table 9 GBO Company Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2016-2020 ............... 12
Table 10 NBO Company Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2016-2020 ............... 13
Table 11 LBN Brand Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2017-2020 ...................... 14
Table 12 Penetration of Private Label by Category: % Value 2015-2020 ................. 15
Table 13 Distribution of Packaged Food by Format: % Value 2015-2020 ................. 15
Table 14 Distribution of Packaged Food by Format and Category: % Value
2020 ........................................................................................................... 16
Table 15 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2020-2025 ......... 18
Table 16 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Value 2020-2025 ............ 18
Table 17 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth
2020-2025 .................................................................................................. 19
Table 18 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Value Growth
2020-2025 .................................................................................................. 19
GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ........................................................................ 20
GLOBAL INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT ...................................................................................... 20
DISCLAIMER ............................................................................................................................. 21
DEFINITIONS............................................................................................................................. 21
SOURCES.................................................................................................................................. 21
Summary 1 Research Sources ...................................................................................... 21
© Euromonitor International
PACKAGED FOOD IN JAPAN Passport ii
PACKAGED FOOD IN JAPAN Passport 1
PACKAGED FOOD IN JAPAN

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
COVID-19 impact on packaged food

Prior to the pandemic, one of the most pertinent factors in exerting a negative impact on
potential volume growth of packaged food was the contraction of the Japanese population due
to a declining birth rate. This was encouraging manufacturers to focus on the development of
higher-value products, particularly in mature categories. Manufacturers were also focusing on
leveraging on key trends shaping consumer demand, particularly the growing influence of
health-consciousness and increasing emphasis on convenience. The popularity of low-carb
diets is a particularly prominent feature of the health and wellness trend, driving the
development of products such as low-carb bread and boosting demand for high-protein products
such as chilled processed chicken. The health trend was also reinvigorating demand for
traditional products such as tofu and brown rice. Greater constraints on consumers’ time was
also generating demand for products that reduce the time and effort required for preparation and
cooking, such as frozen foods and ready meals, while undermining sales of products that place
greater demands on consumers, such as rice. The convenience trend was also seen in the
growing demand for products and packaging compatible with on-the-go consumption.
While the majority of these trends remained pertinent during 2020, the onset of coronavirus
(COVID-19) temporarily altered the growth trajectory. Government-imposed measures put in
place to halt the transmission of coronavirus (COVID-19) included the closure of schools and
businesses for several months during 2020. As such, more people started preparing and eating
food at home and with greater frequency. This led to growth spikes of easy-to-prepare packaged
food products particularly frozen ready meals as they offer convenience and enable consumers
to prepare meals faster. These types of food were particularly well received by busy parents
who had to take care of their children. Many parents had to help with home schooling, while also
working from home, while convenient packaged food products were also popular among those
who had never cooked at home prior to the pandemic.
Even when restaurants were allowed to reopen there remained an increase in home cooking,
with people opting to stay at home to avoid exposure to COVID-19. Moreover, when open, many
restaurants have been subject to restrictions including reduced working hours and seating
capacities, leading to a shift towards maintaining sales through delivery services such as Uber
Eats.
In another trend, as the unprecedented health crisis unfolded, demand strengthened further
for health and wellness food in a bid to strengthen immune systems and to prevent COVID-19
infection. According to Euromonitor International’s Health and Nutrition Survey, over half of
Japanese respondents prefer to adopt natural or traditional solutions in the prevention of
disease, ranking Japan third in this regard among all countries that were surveyed. This
tendency is reflected in consumers’ eating habits and the desire to seek out food for medical
purposes rather than taking supplements or medicine. During 2020, the pandemic accelerated
this trend further particularly benefiting categories such as yoghurt, which saw a reversal of a
four-year downward trend to achieve record-high sales.
COVID-19 country impact

A state of emergency was imposed in seven major Japanese prefectures from 6 April and all
47 prefectures from 16 April. People were encouraged to stay home, avoid group events, avoid
stockpiling and to wash hands, with no penalties or mandatory requirements. Prefecture

governments could close schools, public facilities, entertainment centres and shops. From 5
March, border controls were applied to arrivals from areas in China and South Korea and from
27 April expanded to arrivals from 87 countries. With the government advice to refrain from
domestic travel, rail companies reduced bullet train operations, while major airlines JAL and
ANA reduced domestic flight capacity from 11 May. The government asked all non-essential
retail and foodservice outlets to close or shorten opening hours from 7 April in most large cities.
Grocery retailers, pharmacies and shopping centres either opened shorter hours or as usual,
while most non-grocery retailers were closed. Bars and pubs were asked to close with other
horeca outlets asked to operate only from 05.00-20.00hrs, with no alcohol served after 19.00hrs.
Delivery and takeaway services were permitted. All schools nationwide were asked to close
from 2 March to early April. Schools in some areas resumed classes on 6 April. Businesses
were requested to close or shorten their business hours, though this was not mandatory due to
constitutional barriers related to civil liberties. Businesses in some areas gradually reopened
after 6 May. A growing number of employers mandated or recommended home working for
staff. The government will make a single JPY100,000 payment (around USD940) to all citizens
to mitigate the economic fallout, with payment dates yet to be confirmed.
On 4 May, the government extended the state of emergency to the end of May. The
government then analysed regions by risk and removed the state of emergency for low-risk
prefectures. Iwate Prefecture, which had no cases, and other low-risk areas saw lockdowns end
first, while maintaining social distancing and hygiene measures. Rural/urban risk levels remain
significantly different and some prefectures, like Osaka Prefecture, may develop their own local
exit strategies. The Osaka Model exit strategy is based on the previous seven days in terms of
cases and pressure on the healthcare system.
On 30 August, Japan added 13 new locations to the list of countries and regions from which
entry was prohibited, bringing the total number to 159. Under the restrictions, anyone who was
not a Japanese citizen and had visited a listed country or region in the previous fortnight would
not be allowed into Japan. Mask-wearing is commonplace in Japan already so compliance is
high. School are open and teaching in person with social distancing measures in place, and
clear plastic screens round desks to protect students.
Company response
Declining numbers of tourists due to COVID-19 led to the cessation of packaged food sales to
inbound arrivals in 2020. This is having a significant impact on growth of some categories
among which tourists represent a key consumer base, such as cakes. In response, some
players, which mainly focus on selling souvenirs or gifts, started to expand their distribution
networks in order to attract a wider audience. For instance, Tokyo Banana, which is a soft
sponge cake filled with sweet banana custard, is one of the most popular souvenirs in Tokyo.
The product by Grapestone Co Ltd, was previously only available in Tokyo, but was expanded
to include 7-Eleven convenience stores nationwide during 2020 in order to attract demand from
those seeking snacks and to offset the dramatic loss in tourist demand for souvenirs.
Industry players with products offering immune-boosting properties are also recording strong
demand since the onset of COVID-19. For instance, Meiji enjoyed a large spike in sales of its R-
1 probiotic yoghurt containing R-1 lactic acid bacteria, which is said to improve the body's
immune function and reduce the risk of flu. The company also launched the brand in larger 336g
packaging in response to soaring demand in early 2020 and for use among families. Other
examples of new products with immune-boosting positioning include meat balls containing
Shield Lactic Acid Bacteria from NH Foods launched in late 2020. Varieties included Chicken
dango with lactic acid bacteria and ginger and Chicken dango with lactic acid bacteria and yam.
Retailing shift
Since the onset of the global pandemic, consumer shopping experience when visiting retailers
has been dramatically different, with shoppers having to wear masks and maintain social
distancing. In addition to the inconvenience caused, many people opted to avoid stores entirely
and chose e-commerce and home shopping channels, both of which witnessed a surge in
demand. As a result, grocery home delivery providers such as Oisix and Co-opdeli Consumers'
Co-operative Union enjoyed a strong sales increase. Products such as noodles, frozen
packaged food products and meal kits were among the categories to see the strongest spikes in
home deliveries.
Given the prolonged nature of the COVID-19 pandemic, supermarkets are also increasingly
offering more e-commerce options in response to demand from people staying at home and to
improve the services and variety of products available. For instance, Aeon, one of the largest
mass merchandisers in Japan, started a full-scale service in which customers are able to
receive items that they order online via a drive-through system. Others are operating shared
refrigerators.
Life Corp is also in the process of developing its food delivery service in tandem with Amazon
Japan GK. Since the pandemic, the company has accelerated its expansion to service Tokyo’s
23 wards and four cities in the capital as well as the city of Osaka. Thanks to its ability to ship
groceries alongside products ordered under Amazon’s services, Life can now reach areas that
would otherwise be unprofitable with many deliveries taking place in under two hours. Deliveries
also take place to stores providing consumers with the option of picking up products at their
convenience, providing this takes place during store opening hours.
Other developments and changes that were specifically stimulated by the pandemic included
those by Cookpad Inc. This company operates a recipe-sharing website and also enables
consumers to pick up products ordered online from shared refrigerators set up at railway
stations, drugstores and other locations. It can also deliver products ordered by up to 50 people
simultaneously. Its Cookpad Mart service is also popular for fresh food products and enables
consumers to drop by the refrigerators at their convenience, with the company receiving
requests to set up refrigerators in communal areas of condominiums.
Foodservice vs retail split

Eating occasions shifted from foodservice to at home during the pandemic with food bought
via retail. This was especially prolific during the state of emergency, which was initially
announced for Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba, Saitama, Osaka, Hyogo and Fukuoka due to a high
number of infections but which was then expanded to the rest of the prefectures as the number
of cases increased. Bars and pubs that mainly serve alcohol had to close while other
foodservice outlets in general were asked to operate under curfew hours only, between 5:00
and 20:00, with no alcoholic drinks served after 19:00 during the state of emergency.
Although the government decided to gradually relax some restrictions to resuscitate the
economy after 6 May, the negative impact on foodservice continued as consumers continued to
avoid dining out due to fear of infection or in order to save money. In response, from October
2020, the government started its Go To Eat campaign which offered diners discounts in an
attempt to encourage them to dine out.
What next for packaged food?

Japan’s business culture is traditional with most people working from offices or their places of
work with few opportunities to work from home. However, the onset of COVID-19 made it a new
option for millions of workers who may previously never have had the opportunity to do so.
Moreover, it is likely that working from home will gain more widespread acceptance in Japan
even when the threat of coronavirus diminishes. This combined with the “new-normal” lifestyle,
where more consumers may tend to stay at home, will positively impact the market and help it to
recover from this unprecedented health crisis in the forecast period. As consumer foodservice
and institutions reopen, some eating occasions which shifted into the home in 2020 will shift
back, though some consumers may prefer to stay at home and avoid foodservice either to save
money or because the pandemic stimulated a longer-term change to their lifestyles.
Japanese consumers were already typically health conscious prior to COVID-19. However,
the growth spike in food containing healthy bacteria, such as natto, Japanese fermented
soybeans and yoghurt that were perceived to help strengthen the immune system are expected
to remain in vogue even after the threat of COVID-19 diminishes, with COVID-19 having
increased awareness and demand further for food that offers preventative health benefits.
Moreover, with the country’s rapidly ageing population will mean that any products that can
support healthy ageing and protect against illness are likely to prove popular.
As lifestyles slowly return to normal and the country begins on its road to economic recovery,
increasingly busy lifestyles will once again boost demand for convenient products that help save
time, with industry players focusing more attention on convenient packaging and variety of pack
sizes to suit consumption occasions.
FOODSERVICE
Sales to Foodservice
Outlet closures stimulate a decline in volume sales of packaged food to foodservice in 2020
In 2019, packaged food sales to foodservice continued to be impacted by social and
demographic developments. The increasing number of single-person and dual-income
households and the rising participation of women in the paid workforce placed growing pressure
on consumers’ time and encouraged them to opt for the convenience of foodservice channels.
However, Japan’s shrinking and ageing population also placed constraints on the development
of foodservice. Nonetheless, as foodservice was adapting to evolving market conditions through
the development of evermore convenient options, including delivery services such as Uber Eats,
foodservice operators were expected to maintain significant demand for packaged food products
during the forecast period.
With Japan facing a major labour shortage, growing numbers of foodservice operators were
also looking to convenient, easily prepared packaged food products to remove the need to
prepare meals from scratch. In this way, not only were foodservice operators able to use a
smaller workforce, but one which is less skilled and, therefore, employable from a wider base.
Indeed, using convenient packaged food products enables even relatively unskilled part-time
workers to produce meals easily. Consequently, products that only require simple preparation,
such as frozen baked goods and frozen noodles, were seeing a significant increase in demand
in foodservice channels, while demand for products such as chilled noodles was declining.
However, during 2020, sales of packaged food to foodservice operators decreased
significantly due to store closures or shortened business hours during the state of emergency,
and also because more people refrained from eating out. This had a particularly negative impact
on products such as frozen baked goods and frozen noodles with the closure of foodservice
outlets during the state of emergency resulting in a hefty drop in volume sales of packaged food
to foodservice outlets.
Government programme assists dairy producers

COVID-19 led to disruption of Japan’s food supply chain. The closure of consumer
foodservice outlets including restaurants during the state of emergency meant a temporary halt
to sales of some packaged foods. For instance, players in the local dairy industry suffered
declines in sales of fresh milk due to restaurant and school closures. The total absence of
tourists to dairy producing regions such as Hokkaido, also led to a significant decline in volume
sales in these regions.
In order to support producers and manufacturers suffering from declining sales to foodservice
and also to reduce food waste, products that were originally supposed to go to foodservice, had
been distributed to retail. For instance, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries started
a campaign called “the Plus One Project”, which requests that consumers buy an additional
carton of milk or container of yoghurt in order to offset the declining sales faced by dairy
farmers. Other initiatives included that of Oisix, a grocery food service provider, which tied up
with Kushikatsu Tanaka, izakaya restaurant, to offer fried cutlet skewers on its platform in order
to provide the latter with a wider audience.
State of emergency stimulates alteration in business models

In 2019, packaged food manufacturers and foodservice operators were developing their offers
in anticipation of the expansion and diversification of the tourist base, with a particular focus on
the 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games. These efforts included the introduction of new
products, such as the ume-flavoured dressing for foodservice launched by Ebarafoods. In
addition, while Japan lags behind other markets in terms of the development of plant-based
diets and lifestyles, it was seeing a gradual but notable increase in the emergence of plant-
based menus in foodservice. In order to meet the rising demand for plant-based foods at
foodservice outlets, which had the potential to be significantly boosted by rising inbound tourism,
manufacturers were putting efforts into developing vegan products. These included plant-based
versions of traditional Japanese food items, such as Fuji Oil’s vegan uni, which replaces sea
urchin with flavoured vegetable oils and soy-based ingredients, and Otafuku’s vegan
Okonomiyaki sauce.
However, since the onset of the global pandemic, foodservice operators have been required
to change their business models which stimulated manufacturers into altering their approach.
For instance, many hotels and restaurants stopped serving breakfast buffets and started to
serve it individually in order to maintain social distancing. This led TableMark Co Ltd to
strengthen its product line of individually packed baked goods, which only used to be offered for
institutional sales, but which has now has been expanded to foodservice. Many restaurants also
started to offer takeout menus. However, some found it difficult to replicate the quality and
flavour of restaurant food, leading Kikkoman Corp to market its seasonings towards restaurants
in order to help them maintain the flavour and quality of their meals.
Consumer Foodservice
Outlet closures and shorter working hours due to COVID-19 negatively impact consumer
foodservice in 2020
During 2019, already facing considerable challenges posed by a shrinking and ageing
population, a severe labour shortage and a consumer trend towards eating at home, the
Japanese consumer foodservice market was responding to an increase in the rate of VAT,
government efforts to promote cashless payment and the outbreak of a novel coronavirus. The
lack of available labour, contraction of the consumer base, intense competition and
cannibalisation within brands were already leading major players to reconsider their strategies,
particularly the convenience store operators that dominate the top of the rankings in consumer
foodservice. The shrinking of the consumer base and the recognition that ongoing network
expansion was unsustainable were forcing players to work to raise spending per consumer visit.
Efforts in this direction included the development of higher-value menu options targeting
prevailing demand trends and work to encourage consumers to spend more time in outlets by
enhancing the overall consumer experience. In addition, consumer foodservice players were
seeking to generate sales beyond outlets and tap into the growing demand for eating at home
amongst busy and elderly consumers by expanding their takeaway and delivery options, either
by partnering with third-party platforms or developing their own services.
In 2020, however, the consumer foodservice industry was particularly badly affected by the
state of emergency, as businesses were requested to close or shorten their business hours.
Consumer traffic to these outlets ground to a halt with past efforts to attract a wider audience to
outlets being temporarily but significantly disrupted. The negative impact was especially strong
in izakaya, Japanese-style pub restaurants, as they were asked to stop serving alcohol at
19.00hrs and close at 20.00hrs during that time. Moreover, some consumers continued to
refrain from drinking out even after the state of emergency was lifted over fears over virus
transmission. However, one exception was fast food chains which actually enjoyed sales growth
during the state of emergency due to growing demand for takeout options.
Foodservice players expand into delivery options and frozen food in order to offset decline in
outlet sales
Facing a decline in customer traffic, foodservice players began seeking ways to survive in the
COVID-19 era. For instance, more restaurants started to offer takeout and delivery options,
such as Denny’s, one of the major family restaurant chains in the country, which opened a
takeout and delivery-only store. This is designed to take advantage of the nesting trend with
consumers staying at home to avoid virus transmission. Other foodservice chains chose to enter
the retail packaged food business, such as Odoya Holdings, which is a Japanese-style set meal
restaurant chain, launching frozen packaged food. The company launched eight types of frozen
foods for sale via its 22 stores and includes chicken and vegetable black vinegar bean paste
and sedate salt grilled, as well as frozen food-only products such as demi-hamburger steak. The
company focuses on targeting older generations who are unable to visit stores frequently. With
these products, it aims to help consumers enjoy the taste of restaurant food at home. Even after
the pandemic recedes, the company is also looking to develop this new business model through
convenience stores and supermarkets.
Joint efforts to support ailing consumer foodservice industry after the onslaught of COVID-19
while menus focus more heavily on the healthy
Due to the strong negative impact of COVID-19 on consumer foodservice, the government,
support groups and manufacturers engaged in several efforts to support industry players. For
instance, the government started its Go To Eat campaign, which encourages people to dine out
by offering discounts. Moreover, Sakimeshi.com, a restaurant support project was launched in
early March. As part of the project, consumers were able to buy a pre-paid restaurant ticket for
some point in the future after the COVID-19 outbreak comes under control. Japan’s beverage
giant Suntory Holding, one of the largest beverage players, now also contributes funding to the
project and supports its marketing activities lending the project considerable gravitas.
As well as impacting retail sales of packaged food, the rise in consumer health-awareness is
exerting a strong influence on demand in consumer foodservice. Consumers are increasingly
questioning the nutritional value of the consumer foodservice offer and have become concerned
that dishes can be high in salt, sugar or fat. In response, consumer foodservice operators are
expected to increasingly focus on offering healthier dishes, particularly menus targeting the
booming interest in low-carb diets. For instance, with consumers having cited the lack of low-
carb options as a reason for not visiting its outlets, Yoshinoya introduced its Rizap Gyu Salad,
which is a beef bowl featuring vegetables instead of rice in collaboration with Rizap. The
company’s rivals, Matsuya and Sukiya, have also offered low-carb menus for some time and
succeeded in luring consumers away from Yoshinoya. The popularity of these menus is set to
grow further in the wake of the global pandemic with more such offerings being introduced over
the forecast period.
Category Data
Table 1 Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2015-2020
'000 tonnes
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Edible Oils 420.8 419.9 418.7 418.9 418.4 301.5

Ready Meals 155.5 160.6 164.8 166.9 170.8 122.5
Sauces, Dressings and 912.2 910.4 907.9 903.5 899.8 631.2
Condiments
Soup 12.6 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.2 8.4
Sweet Spreads 15.0 14.6 14.7 14.9 14.6 10.4
Baby Food - - - - - -
Dairy 634.5 638.6 645.2 670.1 669.4 474.9
Confectionery 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4
Ice Cream and Frozen 111.5 112.0 112.1 112.3 111.6 77.9
Desserts
Savoury Snacks 36.2 36.0 35.8 35.7 35.5 24.5
Sweet Biscuits, Snack 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.1 7.2
Bars and Fruit Snacks
Baked Goods 512.4 509.6 507.3 505.4 504.9 355.0
Breakfast Cereals 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8
Processed Fruit and 661.3 675.5 683.0 692.1 694.3 495.4
Vegetables
Processed Meat and 2,059.2 2,074.6 2,094.7 2,086.0 2,095.7 1,488.7
Seafood
Rice, Pasta and Noodles 1,317.8 1,283.1 1,259.2 1,221.7 1,309.5 925.1
Packaged Food 6,860.9 6,859.5 6,867.8 6,851.5 6,948.7 4,923.8
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources
Table 2 Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-

2020
% volume growth
2019/20 2015-20 CAGR 2015/20 Total
Edible Oils -27.9 -6.5 -28.4

Ready Meals -28.3 -4.7 -21.2
Sauces, Dressings and Condiments -29.8 -7.1 -30.8
Soup -31.2 -7.7 -33.0
Sweet Spreads -28.8 -7.1 -30.8
Baby Food - - -
Dairy -29.0 -5.6 -25.1
Confectionery -29.5 -7.1 -30.6
Ice Cream and Frozen Desserts -30.2 -6.9 -30.2
Savoury Snacks -31.0 -7.5 -32.2
Sweet Biscuits, Snack Bars and Fruit -29.4 -7.1 -30.8
Snacks
Baked Goods -29.7 -7.1 -30.7
Breakfast Cereals -29.3 -6.9 -29.9
Processed Fruit and Vegetables -28.6 -5.6 -25.1
Processed Meat and Seafood -29.0 -6.3 -27.7
Rice, Pasta and Noodles -29.4 -6.8 -29.8
Packaged Food -29.1 -6.4 -28.2
Table 3 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2020-2025
'000 tonnes
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Edible Oils 301.5 361.4 365.0 368.2 371.2 373.8

Ready Meals 122.5 166.6 169.9 172.6 174.9 177.4
Condiments
Soup 8.4 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.3
Sweet Spreads 10.4 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.1
Baby Food - - - - - -
Dairy 474.9 594.9 641.7 644.6 647.3 650.2
Confectionery 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Desserts
Savoury Snacks 24.5 31.9 31.8 31.8 31.7 31.7
Baked Goods 355.0 453.5 487.4 487.9 488.3 488.7
Vegetables
Seafood
Rice, Pasta and Noodles 925.1 1,127.5 1,194.2 1,193.9 1,194.2 1,194.8
Packaged Food 4,923.8 6,215.3 6,571.1 6,591.6 6,612.5 6,634.0
Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources
Table 4 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth

2020-2025
% volume growth
2020/21 2020-25 CAGR 2020/25 Total
Edible Oils 19.9 4.4 24.0

Ready Meals 36.0 7.7 44.9
Sauces, Dressings and Condiments 31.5 5.3 29.4
Soup 37.6 6.1 34.7
Sweet Spreads 38.7 7.8 45.5
Baby Food - - -
Dairy 25.3 6.5 36.9
Confectionery 27.7 6.4 36.6
Ice Cream and Frozen Desserts 35.5 7.3 41.9
Savoury Snacks 30.2 5.3 29.2
Sweet Biscuits, Snack Bars and Fruit 32.8 6.9 39.8
Snacks
Baked Goods 27.8 6.6 37.7
Breakfast Cereals 26.3 4.7 25.9
Processed Fruit and Vegetables 26.6 6.8 39.1
Processed Meat and Seafood 26.3 6.7 38.6
Rice, Pasta and Noodles 21.9 5.2 29.2
Packaged Food 26.2 6.1 34.7
trade sources
Chart 1 Packaged Food Value Sales Growth Scenarios: 2018-2025
Source: Euromonitor International Industry Forecast Model

Note: C19 Pessimistic 1 represents a modelled scenario with an estimated probability of 25-35% over a 1-year
horizon, factoring in macro drivers including GDP, stock prices, business and consumer confidence rates
alongside infection rates, supply chain and labour supply disruption rates
Chart 2 Packaged Food Impact of Drivers on Value Sales: 2017-2025
Source: Euromonitor International Industry Forecast Model

Note: The above chart shows the growth decomposition split by macro drivers such as GDP per capita and
population alongside soft drivers listed as having a positive (+) or negative (-) impact on the total growth
rate
MARKET DATA
Table 5 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2015-2020
'000 tonnes
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Edible Oils 317.9 322.5 327.4 321.5 316.6 325.6

Ready Meals 1,816.4 1,864.1 1,895.1 1,921.2 1,950.8 2,063.5
Sauces, Dressings and 2,390.5 2,352.1 2,304.0 2,260.3 2,248.8 2,382.4
Condiments
Soup 107.6 108.4 110.0 111.9 112.1 117.7
Sweet Spreads 67.9 72.0 68.7 68.9 66.9 72.9
Baby Food 42.5 43.4 43.0 43.7 45.6 47.5
Dairy 4,336.1 4,301.4 4,351.4 4,368.4 4,325.3 4,576.2
Confectionery 483.1 496.8 511.7 519.2 519.3 519.7
Desserts
Savoury Snacks 710.8 711.4 729.5 728.1 733.3 772.8
Baked Goods 2,319.4 2,330.0 2,339.7 2,275.2 2,267.0 2,277.0
Vegetables
Seafood
Rice, Pasta and Noodles 4,450.0 4,278.1 4,240.9 4,158.8 4,004.5 4,150.0
Packaged Food 21,359.9 21,205.2 21,249.3 21,070.7 20,845.4 21,695.6
Table 6 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Value 2015-2020
JPY billion
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Edible Oils 156.5 161.0 163.1 165.7 168.4 176.5

Ready Meals 2,110.3 2,179.2 2,238.1 2,283.0 2,342.4 2,474.6
Condiments
Soup 219.2 225.3 235.2 240.6 244.2 259.4
Sweet Spreads 105.0 116.6 110.8 110.8 108.2 119.0
Baby Food 105.6 108.0 105.4 105.7 109.2 112.4
Dairy 2,295.4 2,364.4 2,384.5 2,403.8 2,411.9 2,571.6
Confectionery 1,073.0 1,112.6 1,148.7 1,152.1 1,149.5 1,157.8
Desserts
Savoury Snacks 1,223.7 1,230.6 1,266.3 1,257.6 1,288.7 1,366.2
Baked Goods 2,240.2 2,273.0 2,274.6 2,239.7 2,229.8 2,232.9
Vegetables
Seafood
Packaged Food 19,855.4 20,109.5 20,252.0 20,314.7 20,375.0 21,297.6
Table 7 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020
% volume growth
2019/20 2015-20 CAGR 2015/20 Total

Sauces, Dressings and Condiments 5.9 -0.1 -0.3
Soup 4.9 1.8 9.4
Baby Food 4.2 2.3 11.9
Dairy 5.8 1.1 5.5
Snacks
Baked Goods 0.4 -0.4 -1.8
Processed Meat and Seafood 1.9 -0.2 -0.8
Rice, Pasta and Noodles 3.6 -1.4 -6.7
Table 8 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020
% current value growth

2019/20 2015-20 CAGR 2015/20 Total

Sauces, Dressings and Condiments 6.5 0.9 4.5
Soup 6.2 3.4 18.4
Baby Food 2.9 1.3 6.5
Dairy 6.6 2.3 12.0
Snacks
Baked Goods 0.1 -0.1 -0.3
Rice, Pasta and Noodles 6.6 0.9 4.5
Table 9 GBO Company Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2016-2020
% retail value rsp

Company 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Meiji Holdings Co Ltd 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2

Yamazaki Baking Co Ltd 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0
JA Group (Japan 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0
Agricultural
Cooperatives)
Nissin Foods Holdings 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0
Co Ltd
Megmilk Snow Brand Co Ltd 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Lotte Group 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Ezaki Glico Co Ltd 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Morinaga Milk Industry 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Co Ltd
Calbee Foods Co Ltd 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
Toyo Suisan Kaisha Ltd 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Morinaga & Co Ltd 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1
Ajinomoto Co Inc 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Kewpie Corp 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Yakult Honsha Co Ltd 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Shikishima Baking Co Ltd 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Fuji Baking Co Ltd 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
House Foods Corp 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Kikkoman Corp 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
NH Foods Ltd 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Bourbon Corp 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7

Kameda Seika Co Ltd 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Itoham Yonekyu Holdings 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
Inc
Asahi Group Holdings Ltd 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Nisshin Seifun Group Inc 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
S&B Foods Inc 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Maruha Nichiro Corp 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Hagoromo Foods Corp 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Nisshin Oillio Group Ltd 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Prima Meat Packers Ltd 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Japan Tobacco Inc 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Generics 16.4 16.1 16.0 16.1 15.7
Private Label 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.7
Artisanal 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5
Others 40.4 40.5 40.2 40.0 40.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Table 10 NBO Company Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2016-2020
% retail value rsp

Company 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Meiji Co Ltd 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2

Yamazaki Baking Co Ltd 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6
JA Group (Japan 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0
Agricultural
Cooperatives)
Megmilk Snow Brand Co Ltd 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Morinaga Milk Industry 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6
Co Ltd
Lotte Co Ltd 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.4
Ezaki Glico Co Ltd 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4
Nissin Food Products Co 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Ltd
Calbee Foods Co Ltd 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2
Toyo Suisan Kaisha Ltd 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Morinaga & Co Ltd 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1
Kewpie Corp 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Yakult Honsha Co Ltd 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Ajinomoto Co Inc 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Shikishima Baking Co Ltd 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
7-Eleven Japan Co Ltd 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Fuji Baking Co Ltd 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
House Foods Corp 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Bourbon Corp 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
NH Foods Ltd 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Kameda Seika Co Ltd 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Itoham Foods Inc 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
Nisshin Seifun Group Inc 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
FamilyMart Co Ltd 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
Kikkoman Corp 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Lawson Inc 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
S&B Foods Inc 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Ajinomoto Frozen Foods 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Co Inc
Asahi Group Foods Ltd 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4
Hagoromo Foods Corp 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Lotte Ice Cream Co Ltd 0.5 0.5 - - -
Generics 16.4 16.1 16.0 16.1 15.7
Other Private Label 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.9
Artisanal 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5
Others 42.5 42.7 42.7 42.5 43.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Table 11 LBN Brand Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2017-2020
% retail value rsp

Brand (GBO) Company (NBO) 2017 2018 2019 2020
Yamazaki Yamazaki Baking Co Ltd 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Nissin (Nissin Nissin Food Products Co 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Foods Holdings Co Ltd
Ltd)
Maruchan Toyo Suisan Kaisha Ltd 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Yakult Yakult Honsha Co Ltd 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
7-Eleven (Private 7-Eleven Japan Co Ltd 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Label)
Calbee Calbee Foods Co Ltd 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
Fuji Fuji Baking Co Ltd 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Family Mart FamilyMart Co Ltd 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
(Private Label)
R-1 (Meiji Holdings Meiji Co Ltd 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Co Ltd)
Meiji (Meiji Meiji Co Ltd 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Holdings Co Ltd)
Bulgaria (Meiji Meiji Co Ltd 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Holdings Co Ltd)
Lawson (Private Lawson Inc 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Label)
Ajinomoto Ajinomoto Frozen Foods 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
(Ajinomoto Co Inc) Co Inc
Hagoromo Hagoromo Foods Corp 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Prima Ham Prima Meat Packers Ltd 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
TableMark (Japan TableMark Co Ltd 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Tobacco Inc)
Sapporo Ichiban Sanyo Foods Co Ltd 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4
Kewpie Kewpie Corp 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Kikkoman Kikkoman Corp 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Morinaga Morinaga Milk Industry 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4
Co Ltd
Nissui Nippon Suisan Kaisha Ltd 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Knorr (Unilever Ajinomoto Co Inc 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Group)
Shikishima Baking Shikishima Baking Co Ltd 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Kashipan
Snow Brand Megmilk Snow Brand Co Ltd 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Marudai Marudai Food Co Ltd 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Sagamiya Sagamiya Foods Co Ltd 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Nichirei Nichirei Corp 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Megmilk Megmilk Snow Brand Co Ltd 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Nisshin Oillio Nisshin Oillio Group Ltd 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Megumi Megmilk Snow Brand Co Ltd 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Generics Generics 16.1 16.0 16.1 15.7
Other Private Label Other Private Label 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.9
(Private Label)
Artisanal Artisanal 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5
Others Others 57.9 58.0 57.8 58.4
Total Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Table 12 Penetration of Private Label by Category: % Value 2015-2020
% retail value rsp

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Packaged Food 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.7

Confectionery 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6
Desserts
Savoury Snacks 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.6 9.6 9.7
Dairy 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3
Edible Oils 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1
Ready Meals 24.6 24.7 24.9 24.9 24.7 23.1
Condiments
Sweet Spreads 10.3 9.5 9.8 9.8 9.5 8.1
Soup 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.6 5.6
Baked Goods 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4
Vegetables
Processed Meat and 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3
Seafood
Rice, Pasta and Noodles 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.5 16.2 16.3
Table 13 Distribution of Packaged Food by Format: % Value 2015-2020
% retail value rsp

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Store-Based Retailing 95.1 95.0 94.9 94.8 94.8 94.2

- Grocery Retailers 57.1 57.7 57.7 57.9 58.1 57.5
-- Modern Grocery 53.2 53.9 54.0 54.2 54.5 54.0
Retailers
--- Convenience Stores 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.3 13.9
--- Discounters - - - - - -
--- Forecourt Retailers - - - - - -
--- Hypermarkets - - - - - -
--- Supermarkets 39.5 40.0 39.9 40.1 40.1 40.1
-- Traditional Grocery 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5
Retailers
--- Food/drink/tobacco 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3
specialists
--- Independent Small 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Grocers
--- Other Grocery 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Retailers
- Non-Grocery Specialists 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.6 7.8 8.0
-- Health and Beauty 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.6 7.8 8.0
Specialist Retailers
-- Other Foods Non- 0.0 - - - 0.0 0.0
Grocery Specialists
- Mixed Retailers 30.8 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.6
Non-Store Retailing 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.8
- Vending 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
- Homeshopping 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6
- E-Commerce 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.5
- Direct Selling 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Table 14 Distribution of Packaged Food by Format and Category: % Value 2020
% retail value rsp

EO RM SDC SOU SSP BF

-- Modern Grocery 50.7 64.3 50.4 51.7 50.1 22.1
Retailers
--- Discounters 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
--- Forecourt Retailers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
--- Hypermarkets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
--- Supermarkets 49.7 36.5 49.5 34.7 49.5 21.3
Retailers
specialists
Grocers
--- Other Grocery 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Retailers
-- Other Foods Non- 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Grocery Specialists
- Mixed Retailers 36.3 26.0 36.0 24.3 37.8 14.7
- Vending 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.0 0.0
- Homeshopping 2.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 1.9 6.0
- E-Commerce 3.6 3.0 2.8 3.6 2.4 4.6
- Direct Selling 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
DY CF ICF SS SSF BG

-- Modern Grocery 53.1 47.0 57.7 52.4 53.3 53.5
Retailers
--- Discounters 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

--- Forecourt Retailers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
--- Hypermarkets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
--- Supermarkets 43.4 27.9 39.3 38.3 34.7 24.0
Retailers
specialists
Grocers
--- Other Grocery 0.2 1.8 0.0 1.3 1.4 0.6
Retailers
-- Other Foods Non- 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Grocery Specialists
- Mixed Retailers 27.3 32.4 25.2 26.4 24.9 17.3
- Vending 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
- Homeshopping 3.4 2.4 1.8 2.4 2.6 1.6
- E-Commerce 1.7 3.8 2.1 2.2 2.2 1.7
- Direct Selling 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
BC PFV PMS RPN
Store-Based Retailing 93.3 95.6 95.3 92.1

- Grocery Retailers 48.3 54.6 54.0 57.1
-- Modern Grocery 47.8 54.0 53.3 55.2
Retailers
--- Convenience Stores 0.6 2.5 6.9 12.7
--- Discounters 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
--- Forecourt Retailers 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
--- Hypermarkets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
--- Supermarkets 47.2 51.6 46.4 42.5
-- Traditional Grocery 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.9
Retailers
--- Food/drink/tobacco 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
specialists
--- Independent Small 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9
Grocers
--- Other Grocery 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Retailers
- Non-Grocery Specialists 13.3 7.1 7.9 6.6
-- Health and Beauty 13.3 7.1 7.9 6.6
-- Other Foods Non- 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Grocery Specialists
- Mixed Retailers 31.7 33.9 33.3 28.5
Non-Store Retailing 6.7 4.4 4.7 7.9
- Vending 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
- Homeshopping 2.1 2.1 2.3 4.7
- E-Commerce 4.6 2.2 2.4 3.2
- Direct Selling 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Key: EO = edible oils; RM = ready meals; SDC = sauces, dressings and condiments; SOU = soup; SSP =
sweet spreads; BF = baby food; DY = dairy; CF = confectionery; ICF = ice cream and frozen desserts;
SS = savoury snacks; SSF = sweet biscuits, snack bars and fruit snacks; BG = baked goods; BC =
breakfast cereals; PFV = processed frozen vegetables; PMS = processed meat and seafood; RPN =
rice, pasta and noodles
Table 15 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2020-2025
'000 tonnes
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Edible Oils 325.6 316.5 297.6 292.5 287.8 283.3

Ready Meals 2,063.5 2,071.3 2,003.9 2,042.3 2,079.3 2,114.6
Condiments
Soup 117.7 117.7 115.3 115.9 116.4 117.0
Sweet Spreads 72.9 72.9 70.0 70.6 71.1 71.6
Baby Food 47.5 47.6 46.7 46.9 47.1 47.3
Dairy 4,576.2 4,543.7 4,379.2 4,380.8 4,381.6 4,379.4
Confectionery 519.7 513.7 514.7 516.1 517.5 518.7
Desserts
Savoury Snacks 772.8 738.0 737.6 737.8 738.2 738.6
Baked Goods 2,277.0 2,283.9 2,284.7 2,296.3 2,307.0 2,316.5
Vegetables
Seafood
Packaged Food 21,695.6 21,529.8 20,995.9 21,046.3 21,095.5 21,137.1
trade sources
Table 16 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Value 2020-2025
JPY billion
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Edible Oils 176.5 174.2 166.4 165.9 165.3 164.9

Ready Meals 2,474.6 2,497.7 2,437.8 2,470.7 2,501.8 2,531.6
Condiments
Soup 259.4 261.3 256.2 257.1 258.1 258.9
Sweet Spreads 119.0 118.7 113.8 114.5 115.2 115.8
Baby Food 112.4 111.6 108.9 108.8 108.7 108.8
Dairy 2,571.6 2,580.2 2,510.4 2,540.0 2,567.3 2,595.3
Confectionery 1,157.8 1,142.0 1,144.0 1,146.4 1,148.8 1,151.0
Desserts
Savoury Snacks 1,366.2 1,310.8 1,316.0 1,321.7 1,327.3 1,332.3
Baked Goods 2,232.9 2,248.5 2,270.0 2,284.9 2,298.6 2,310.9
Vegetables
Seafood
Packaged Food 21,297.6 21,224.3 20,920.5 21,061.6 21,192.6 21,315.4
trade sources
Table 17 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
% volume growth
2020/21 2020-25 CAGR 2020/25 Total
Edible Oils -2.8 -2.7 -13.0

Soup 0.0 -0.1 -0.6
Sweet Spreads 0.0 -0.4 -1.8
Baby Food 0.1 -0.1 -0.5
Dairy -0.7 -0.9 -4.3
Confectionery -1.2 0.0 -0.2
Ice Cream and Frozen Desserts -1.9 0.0 0.1
Sweet Biscuits, Snack Bars and Fruit -5.2 -0.2 -1.1
Snacks
Breakfast Cereals -0.8 -1.0 -5.0
Packaged Food -0.8 -0.5 -2.6
trade sources
Table 18 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025
% constant value growth

2020/2021 2020-25 CAGR 2020/25 Total
Edible Oils -1.3 -1.3 -6.6

Soup 0.7 0.0 -0.2
Sweet Spreads -0.3 -0.6 -2.7
Baby Food -0.8 -0.7 -3.3
Dairy 0.3 0.2 0.9
Confectionery -1.4 -0.1 -0.6
Ice Cream and Frozen Desserts -2.1 -0.1 -0.4
Sweet Biscuits, Snack Bars and Fruit -4.3 0.5 2.5
Snacks
Breakfast Cereals 0.3 -0.1 -0.7
Packaged Food -0.3 0.0 0.1
trade sources
GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

▪ The COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments to quarantine entire countries, disrupted
global supply chains, slashed business and consumer confidence and affected financial
markets. The effects on the global economy are already being felt, and will be substantial, but
the exact magnitude will depend on the length of COVID-19 restrictions.
▪ COVID-19 will severely impact both the supply and demand sides of the economy. At the
same time, monetary policy tools are almost exhausted due to the slow recovery from the
Global Financial Crisis. Interest rates have not recovered, so central banks have to resort to
Quantitative Easing programmes (QEs), but QEs have limited effect on labour markets,
consumer spending and other aspects of the real economy.
▪ Thus, countries have to turn to fiscal stimulus. However, the response to fiscal stimulus will be
limited too as long as people are quarantined in their homes. In the meantime, governments
are helping businesses and citizens by providing emergency loans to cover expenses and
lower the spill over effects through economies, but uncertainty surrounding the pandemic
limits economic activity.
GLOBAL INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT

▪ The COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge impact across packaged food. Shoppers in many
markets have reacted to quarantining by stockpiling, foodservice options have been shut
down, and eating occasions have shifted into the home. In addition, institutions such as
schools have closed, and some consumers believe that home-prepared food is safer, driving
growth of food through the retail channel.
▪ Many packaged food items have seen sales soar as consumers stock up, with some
categories (ie staples with long shelf life) proving primary choices. But beyond this initial
boost, the pandemic brings significant risks to packaged food value sales through damage to
the global economy; as spending power weakens, trading down will occur and premium
ranges will be in the firing line.
▪ There has been extreme growth in e-commerce grocery retailing as the virus spreads, with
governments pushing its use and consumers switching to comply with social
distancing/quarantine or in order to actually secure groceries not always available in store.
Retailers are betting that the change will hold once restrictions are lifted, with many expanding
their operations. Prior to the outbreak, e-commerce was the channel with the fastest growth
rate; this forced acceleration could result in a paradigm shift in some markets.
▪ Food supply is also being tested, with border closures and absence of workers both key
problems. In future, localism is likely to gain prominence as the ‘need’ for produce from
around the world comes into question, given COVID-19’s demonstration of how interlinked
and vulnerable different markets are.
▪ To better understand the impact of COVID-19 on the packaged food industry and what the
crisis could mean for near- and mid-term forecasts, please read the report, The Impact of
Coronavirus on Packaged and Fresh Food (April 2020), which serves as an early guide to
forecasting the crisis, with insights on current results, lessons from previous crises on key
categories, and scenarios for understanding the virus’ future impact on packaged food.
DISCLAIMER
Forecast closing date: 12 October 2020
Report closing date: 8 December 2020
Analysis and data in this report give full consideration to the impact of COVID-19 on
consumer behaviour and market performance in 2020 and beyond. However, the situation
continues to develop rapidly, and the influence and severity of the pandemic are constantly
evolving. For the very latest insight on COVID-19 and its impact on industries and consumers, at
both global and national level, readers can access strategic analysis and updates
on www.euromonitor.com and via the Passport system, where new content is being added on a
systematic basis.
DEFINITIONS
Explanations of words and/or terminology used in this report are as follows:
▪ Bento: Single portion takeaway or home-cooked meal;
▪ Insta-bae: Photo-genic on the social media site, Instagram – an influential factor in the
purchasing decisions of younger female consumers, in particular
▪ Izakaya: Traditional bars for casual after-work drinking and dining;
▪ Karai: hot/spicy
▪ Nakashoku: Ready-to-eat "middle meals" positioned between gai shoku (dining out) and nai
shoku (food cooked and eaten at home);
▪ Udon: Traditional thick noodles, often served in soup;
▪ Yakitori: Grilled chicken skewers;
▪ Yatai: Traditional mobile stall, typically selling food such as ramen (noodle soup)
SOURCES
Sources used during research include the following:
Summary 1 Research Sources

Official Sources Fisheries Agency
Japan Finance Corp
Kanto Regional Agricultural Administration

Office
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries of

Japan (MAFF)
Ministry of Health, Labour & Welfare
Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs &

Communications
Trade Associations Agriculture & Livestock Industries Corp
All Japan Confectionery Associaton
All Japan Tsukemono Federation Cooperative
Californian Walnut Commision
Chocolate & Cocoa Association of Japan
Hokuren Nogyo Kyodo Kumiai Rengokai
Ice Cream Association, The
International Dairy Foods Association
JA Echigo Nagaoka
Japan Agricultural Cooperatives
Japan Baby Food Association
Japan Beekeeping Association
Japan Biscuit Association
Japan Canners Association
Japan Chewing Gum Association
Japan Chocolate & Cocoa Association
Japan Corn Grits Association
Japan Dairy Products Association
Japan Federation of Dry Noodle

Manufacturers
Japan Federation of Miso Manufacturers

Cooperatives
Japan Food Industry Centre (JFIC)
Japan Franchise Asscociation
Japan Frozen Food Association
Japan Frozen Noodle Association
Japan Ham & Sausage Processors

Cooperative Association
Japan Hamburg & Hamburger Association
Japan Health & Nutrition Food Association
Japan Honmirin Association
Japan Ice Cream Association
Japan Instant Noodle Association
Japan Jam Association
Japan Margarine Association
Japan Mayonnaise Association
Japan Meat Traders Association
Japan Nut Association
Japan Oilseed Processors Association
Japan Pasta Association
Japan Prepared-Mix Association
Japan Rice Asscociation
Japan Snack Cereal Foods Association
Japan Soup Association
Japan Soymilk Association
Japan Supermarket Association
Japanese Association of Fermented Milks &

Fermented Milk Drinks
Japanese Biscuit Association
National Association of Mayonnaise &

Dressing
Nihon Sauce Kogyokai
Nippon Pan Kogyokai
Raisin Association
Soysauce information center
Zenkoku Beikoku Hanbai Jigyo Kyosai Kyodo

Kumiai
Zenkoku Hoso Beihan Association
Zenkoku Kamaboko Rengoukai
Zenkoku Suisan Kakogyo Kyodo Kumiai

Rengokai
Zen-Noh
Zentoren
Trade Press Asahi Shimbun
Beverage & Food Statistics Monthly, The
Financial Times
Ice Cream Ryutsu Shinbun
Kenko Sangyo Shimbun
Mainichi Shinbun
Nihon Keizai Shimbun
Nihon Shokuryo Shimbun
Nikkan Keizai Tsushinsha
Nikkei Marketing Journal
Nikkei Press Release
Nikkei Trendy
Nikkei Weekly
Shokuhin Sangyo Shimbunsha Co Ltd
Syurui Shokuhin Tokei Geppo
Tokyo Shinbun
Yomiuri Shinbun
Source: Euromonitor International

Packaged Food in Japan

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Packaged Food in Japan

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Packaged Food in Japan

LIST OF CONTENTS AND TABLES

PACKAGED FOOD IN JAPAN

COVID-19 impact on packaged food

COVID-19 country impact

stockpiling and to wash hands, with no penalties or mandatory requirements. Prefecture

Foodservice vs retail split

What next for packaged food?

Government programme assists dairy producers

State of emergency stimulates alteration in business models

Table 1 Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2015-2020

Edible Oils 420.8 419.9 418.7 418.9 418.4 301.5

Table 2 Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-

Edible Oils -27.9 -6.5 -28.4

Table 3 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2020-2025

Edible Oils 301.5 361.4 365.0 368.2 371.2 373.8

Table 4 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth

Edible Oils 19.9 4.4 24.0

Chart 1 Packaged Food Value Sales Growth Scenarios: 2018-2025

Source: Euromonitor International Industry Forecast Model

Chart 2 Packaged Food Impact of Drivers on Value Sales: 2017-2025

Source: Euromonitor International Industry Forecast Model

Edible Oils 317.9 322.5 327.4 321.5 316.6 325.6

Table 6 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Value 2015-2020

Edible Oils 156.5 161.0 163.1 165.7 168.4 176.5

Table 7 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020

Edible Oils 2.9 0.5 2.4

Table 8 Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020

% current value growth

Edible Oils 4.8 2.4 12.8

Table 9 GBO Company Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2016-2020

% retail value rsp

Meiji Holdings Co Ltd 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2

Bourbon Corp 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7

Table 10 NBO Company Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2016-2020

% retail value rsp

Meiji Co Ltd 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2

Hagoromo Foods Corp 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Table 11 LBN Brand Shares of Packaged Food: % Value 2017-2020

% retail value rsp

Yamazaki Yamazaki Baking Co Ltd 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Table 12 Penetration of Private Label by Category: % Value 2015-2020

% retail value rsp

Packaged Food 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.7

Table 13 Distribution of Packaged Food by Format: % Value 2015-2020

% retail value rsp

Store-Based Retailing 95.1 95.0 94.9 94.8 94.8 94.2

--- Other Grocery 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Table 14 Distribution of Packaged Food by Format and Category: % Value 2020

% retail value rsp

Store-Based Retailing 93.6 95.0 95.0 88.4 95.7 89.4

Store-Based Retailing 89.7 93.8 95.8 95.4 95.1 96.6

--- Discounters 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

BC PFV PMS RPN

Store-Based Retailing 93.3 95.6 95.3 92.1

Table 15 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Volume 2020-2025

Edible Oils 325.6 316.5 297.6 292.5 287.8 283.3

Table 16 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: Value 2020-2025

Edible Oils 176.5 174.2 166.4 165.9 165.3 164.9

Table 17 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025

Edible Oils -2.8 -2.7 -13.0

Table 18 Forecast Sales of Packaged Food by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025

% constant value growth