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IEA - Renewables 2023
IEA - Renewables 2023
2023
Analysis and forecast to 2028
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY
AGENCY
The IEA examines the IEA member IEA association
full spectrum countries: countries:
of energy issues
including oil, gas and Australia Argentina
coal supply and Brazil
Austria
demand, renewable
Belgium China
energy technologies,
electricity markets, Canada Egypt
energy efficiency, Czech Republic India
access to energy, Denmark Indonesia
demand side Estonia Kenya
management and Finland Morocco
much more. Through France Senegal
its work, the IEA Germany Singapore
advocates policies that Greece South Africa
will enhance the Hungary Thailand
reliability, affordability Ireland Ukraine
and sustainability of
Italy
energy in its
31 member countries, Japan
13 association Korea
countries and beyond. Lithuania
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Spain
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to the name of any territory, The European
city or area. Commission also
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work of the IEA
Source: IEA.
International Energy Agency
Website: www.iea.org
Renewables 2023 Abstract
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Abstract
Renewables 2023 is the IEA’s primary analysis on the sector, based on current
policies and market developments. It forecasts the deployment of renewable
energy technologies in electricity, transport and heat to 2028 while also exploring
key challenges to the industry and identifying barriers to faster growth.
At the COP28 climate change conference in Dubai, more than 130 national
governments including the European Union agreed to work together to triple the
world’s installed renewable energy capacity to at least 11 000 GW by 2030.
Renewables 2023 provides detailed country-level analysis on the progress
towards the global tripling target. Alongside the report, an online dashboard is also
available, which maps all the relevant data to measure renewable energy
deployment through 2028.
In addition to its detailed market analysis and forecasts, Renewables 2023 also
examines key developments for the sector including policy trends driving
deployment; solar PV manufacturing; competitiveness of renewable technologies;
energy storage; renewable energy capacity for hydrogen production; the
prospects for renewable energy companies; system integration and a special
section on biogas and biomethane forecast.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 3
Renewables 2023 Acknowledgements
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Acknowledgements, contributors
and credits
This study was prepared by the Renewable Energy Division in the Directorate of
Energy Markets and Security. It was designed and directed by Heymi Bahar,
Senior Analyst.
The report benefited from analysis, drafting and input from multiple colleagues.
The lead authors of the report were, Yasmina Abdelilah, Ana Alcalde Báscones
Heymi Bahar, Piotr Bojek, François Briens, Trevor Criswell, Jeremy Moorhouse,
and Laura Mari Martinez, who was also responsible for data management. The
report also benefited from analysis and drafting from Kartik Veerakumar.
Other IEA colleagues who have made important contributions to this work include:
Nadim Abillama, Sylvia Beyer, Eren Cam, Hana Chambers, Chiara Delmastro,
Syrine El Abed, Pablo Hevia-Koch, Zoe, Hungerford, Luca Lorenzoni, Yannick
Monschauer, Taylor Morrison, Brian Motherway, Thomas Spencer, Brent Wanner,
Biqing Yang and Peter Zeniewski.
Timely data from the IEA Energy Data Centre were fundamental to the report, with
particular assistance provided by Pedro Carvalho, Luca Lorenzoni, Taylor
Morrison, Nick Johnstone, Julian Prime and Roberta Quadrelli.
This work benefited from extensive review and comments from the IEA Standing
Group on Long-Term Co-operation, IEA Renewable Energy Working Party,
members of the Renewable Industry Advisory Board (RIAB) and experts from IEA
partner countries and other international institutions. The work also benefited from
feedback by the IEA Committee on Energy Research and Technology, IEA
Technology Collaboration Programmes (IEA TCPs).
Many experts from outside of the IEA provided valuable input, commented and
reviewed this report. They include:
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 4
Renewables 2023 Acknowledgements
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Countries
Other Organisations
The authors would also like to thank Kristine Douaud for skilfully editing the
manuscript and the IEA Communication and Digital Office, in particular Jon
Custer, Astrid Dumond, Grace Gordon, Jethro Mullen, Isabelle Nonain-Semelin
Robert Stone, Sam Tarling, Clara Vallois, Lucile Wall and Therese Walsh for their
assistance. In addition, Ivo Letra from the Office of Management and
Administration supported data management.
Questions or comments?
PAGE | 5
Renewables 2023 Table of contents
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Table of contents
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 6
Renewables 2023 Executive summary
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Executive Summary
PAGE | 7
Renewables 2023 Executive summary
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Over the coming five years, several renewable energy milestones are expected to
be achieved:
In 2024, wind and solar PV together generate more electricity than hydropower.
In 2025, renewables surpass coal to become the largest source of electricity
generation.
Wind and solar PV each surpass nuclear electricity generation in 2025 and 2026
respectively.
In 2028, renewable energy sources account for over 42% of global electricity
generation, with the share of wind and solar PV doubling to 25%.
PAGE | 8
Renewables 2023 Executive summary
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
The US, the EU, India and Brazil remain bright spots for
onshore wind and solar PV growth
Solar PV and onshore wind additions through 2028 is expected to more than
double in the United States, the European Union, India and Brazil compared
with the last five years. Supportive policy environments and the improving
economic attractiveness of solar PV and onshore wind are the primary drivers
behind this acceleration. In the European Union and Brazil, growth in rooftop solar
PV is expected to outpace large-scale plants as residential and commercial
consumers seek to reduce their electricity bills amid higher prices. In the United
States, the Inflation Reduction Act has acted as a catalyst for accelerated
additions despite supply chain issues and trade concerns in the near term. In India,
an expedited auction schedule for utility-scale onshore wind and solar PV along
with improved financial health of distribution companies is expected to deliver
accelerated growth.
Renewable energy expansion also starts accelerating in other regions of the world,
notably the Middle East and North Africa, owing mostly to policy incentives that
take advantage of the cost-competitiveness of solar PV and onshore wind power.
Although renewable capacity growth picks up in sub-Saharan Africa, the region
still underperforms considering its resource potential and electrification needs.
PAGE | 9
Renewables 2023 Executive summary
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
become more cost-competitive during the forecast period. Despite the increasing
contribution needs for flexibility and reliability to integrate variable renewables, the
overall competitiveness of onshore wind and solar PV changes only slightly by
2028 in Europe, China, India and the United States.
PAGE | 10
Renewables 2023 Executive summary
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
PAGE | 11
Renewables 2023 Executive summary
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
PAGE | 12
Renewables 2023 Executive summary
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
However, the trends to 2028 are still largely insufficient to tackle the use of
fossil fuels for heat and put the world on track to meet Paris Agreement
goals. Without stronger policy action, the global heat sector alone between 2023
and 2028 could consume more than one-fifth of the remaining carbon budget for
a pathway aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Global renewable heat
consumption would have to rise 2.2 times as quickly and be combined with wide-
scale demand-side measures and much larger energy and material efficiency
improvements to align with the NZE Scenario.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 13
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Chapter 1. Electricity
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: CSP = concentrated solar power. Capacity additions refer to net additions. Historical and forecast solar PV capacity
may differ from previous editions of the renewable energy market report. This year, PV data for all countries have been
converted to DC (direct current), increasing capacity for countries reporting in AC (alternating current). Conversions are
based on an IEA survey of more than 80 countries and interviews with PV industry associations. Solar PV systems work by
capturing sunlight using photovoltaic cells and converting it into DC electricity. The DC electricity is then usually converted
using an inverter, as most electrical devices and power systems use AC. Until about 2010, AC and DC capacity in most PV
systems were similar, but with developments in PV system sizing, these two values may now differ by up to 40%, especially
in utility-scale installations. Solar PV and wind additions include capacity dedicated to hydrogen production.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 14
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Solar PV and wind additions are forecast to more than double by 2028 compared
with 2022, continuously breaking records over the forecast period to reach almost
710 GW. At the same time, hydropower and bioenergy capacity additions will be
lower than during the last five years as development in emerging economies
decelerates, especially in China.
45%
Solar PV
40%
35% Wind
30%
Variable
25% renewables
20% Hydropower
15%
Other
10% renewables
5% All renewables
0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Electricity generation from wind and solar PV indicate potential generation including current curtailment rates.
However, it does not project future curtailment of wind and solar PV, which may be significant in a few countries by 2028.
The Curtailment section below discusses some of these recent trends.
PAGE | 15
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
countries (see Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario tracking section in this
chapter).
While renewables are currently the largest energy source for electricity generation
in 57 countries, mostly thanks to hydropower, these countries represent just 14%
of global power demand. By 2028, 68 countries will have renewables as their main
power generation source but still only account for 17% of global demand.
1 000 200
500 100
0
0
China
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations. MENA = Middle East and North Africa. Capacity additions refer to
net additions.
Meanwhile, expansion accelerates in the United States and the European Union
thanks to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and country-level policy incentives
supporting EU decarbonisation and energy security targets. In India, progressive
policy improvements to remedy auction participation, financing and distributed
solar PV challenges pay off with faster renewable power growth through 2028. In
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 16
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Latin America, higher retail prices spur distributed solar PV system buildouts, and
supportive policies for utility-scale installations in Brazil boost renewable energy
growth to new highs.
Renewable energy expansion also accelerates in the Middle East and North
Africa, owing mostly to policy incentives that take advantage of the
cost-competitiveness of solar PV and onshore wind power. Although renewable
capacity increases more quickly in sub-Saharan Africa, the region still
underperforms considering its resource potential and electrification needs.
3 000
Revisions
75%
2 500
2 000 50%
1 500
25%
1 000
0%
500
Upward revisions Downward revisions
0 China Brazil Germany
Renewables Upward Downward Renewables
2022 revisons revisions 2023 India United States Others
forecast forecast Korea Spain Australia
Oman ASEAN
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Capacity additions refer to net additions. Comparison periods are
the forecasts for 2023 to 2027.
PAGE | 17
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
improvements for auction design and permitting, and a growing corporate PPA
market in Germany; positive impacts of IRA incentives in the United States; and
speedier streamlined renewable energy auctioning in India.
Conversely, we have revised down the forecast for Korea because the
government’s policy focus has shifted from renewables to nuclear energy,
reducing solar PV targets. We have also reined in forecast growth for other
markets compared with last year’s outlook: for Spain because renewable energy
auctions have been significantly undersubscribed; for Australia due to continued
policy uncertainty following early achievement of its Large-scale Renewable
Energy Target (LRET); for Oman because development time frames for large-
scale renewable energy projects have been longer than expected, including for
green hydrogen; and for multiple ASEAN countries as a result of sustained policy
uncertainty as well as overall power supply gluts limiting additional renewable
deployment in the short term.
Thus, even with the phaseout of subsidies, developers have been accelerating the
deployment of utility-scale and commercial solar PV applications to meet growing
power demand because it is more affordable than investing in new and existing
coal- and gas-fired generation. In addition, China’s government has clarified its
green certificate rules, providing additional revenues for renewable energy
projects. Similar policy improvements also support a higher wind forecast, but
longer project lead times, especially for the growing offshore wind market, limits
upward revision.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 18
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Global
All renewables
China
Others
Global
Solar PV
China
Others
Global
Wind
China
Others
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Capacity additions refer to net additions. Comparison periods are the forecasts for 2023 to 2027. Solar PV and wind
additions include capacity dedicated to hydrogen production.
Outside of China, onshore wind additions are not advancing considerably in other
large markets such as India and Australia, and the forecast has been revised down
for the ASEAN region, Africa and the Middle East due to slow project progress
and ongoing policy uncertainties. In the European Union, long permitting wait
times, supply chain challenges and higher equipment and financial costs also
reduce anticipated onshore wind deployment. However, costs for offshore wind
development have risen the most, causing us to revise this year’s forecast down
by 16% outside of China.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
components has been rising since early 2020 due to supply chain constraints and
inflation, leading to a more than 20% increase in offshore wind investment costs.
In addition, higher financing costs are putting additional pressure on developers
that signed power purchase agreements under low equipment and borrowing
costs before the global energy crisis hit.
Two of the largest countries for offshore wind additions outside of China – the
United States and the United Kingdom – are being acutely impacted by the
changing economic conditions. In the United States, over 10 GW of capacity
previously awarded in state tenders have been delayed or are at risk of being
delayed or cancelled, resulting in a downward revision of more than 60% to our
US offshore wind forecast. Project economics are the main factor, with developers
trying to renegotiate their contract prices because bids were awarded in an
economic context of low interest, inflation and commodity price rates.
Some developers who cancelled awarded projects are planning to bid for the
capacity again in future auctions, presumably at a higher price. Indeed, the state
of New York plans to hold new tenders to replace cancelled projects, with prices
indexed to inflation. Auction and tender participation have also been impacted,
with the latest tender in Rhode Island attracting only one bid, while a federal lease
auction in the Gulf of Mexico also resulted in only one bid, with two lease areas
receiving no bids at all.
Offshore wind capacity forecast revisions excluding China, and wind component
commodity price increases
60 800 000
GW
USD/MW
50 700 000
600 000
40
500 000
30 400 000
20 300 000
200 000
10
100 000
0 0
Renewables 2022 Renewables 2023 2020 price Q1 2023 price
UK US Chinese Taipei
Germany Netherlands Viet Nam Steel (US) Cast Iron Copper Aluminium
France Denmark Korea
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Rising offshore wind development costs have also affected the United Kingdom in
two ways. The first is low auction participation, with the most recent renewable
energy auction attracting no bids for the 4 GW of offshore wind capacity available
because the maximum bid price of GBP 44/MWh (in 2022 GBP) was not high
enough to cover the cost of building new capacity (GBP 53/MWh).
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 20
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
The second is project cancellation, with higher costs making it uneconomic to build
previously awarded capacity: for instance, Vattenfall cancelled the
Norfork Boreas 1.4-GW offshore wind project because costs have risen 40%.
While prices awarded in UK contract-for-difference (CfD) auctions do not adjust
for rising inflation between contract awarding and project commissioning, the
maximum price for auctions announced in November 2023 was increased 66%
(from GBP 44/MWh to GBP 73/MWh).
16 United 14
States
14 12
United
12 Kingdom 10
10 Eurozone
8
8
Brazil 6
6
4
4 China
2 2
0 India
0
-2
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Source: Bloomberg LP.
Since 2022, central bank base interest rates have increased from below 1% to
almost 5%, and annual inflation has reached around 10% in many advanced
economies in mid-2022. In 2023, new renewable energy capacity financed in
advanced economies was exposed to higher base interest rates than in China and
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 21
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
global average for the first time, mainly because the Chinese government decided
to cut interest rates rather than follow the global trend. In emerging markets and
developing economies (EMDEs), renewable developers have always exposed to
higher interested rates, resulting in higher costs hampering faster expansion of
renewable capacity. The lack of affordable financing remains the most important
challenge to renewable project development in most EMDEs, especially in
countries where renewable policy uncertainties also increase project risk
premiums.
Average central bank base interest rates weighted by renewable energy deployment,
2010-2023
10
%
9
Advanced economies
8
7
Emerging economies
6
5
4 China
3
2 World
1
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Weighted averages are based on renewable capacity deployed for each country/region. Countries with limited
information on official interest rates are excluded from this analysis.
1
Module costs have not declined worldwide. Countries with trade measures against Chinese cells and modules are not
experiencing price reductions.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 22
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
These challenges fall into four main categories. First are policy uncertainties and
delayed policy responses to the new macroeconomic environment, encompassing
inflexible auction design. During the energy crisis, governments intervened in
energy markets to protect consumers from high prices. While these interventions
were justified, they also created uncertainty for investors over the future
investment environment in the electricity sector. The macroeconomic changes
also drove up costs and contract prices for wind and solar PV projects, and a lack
of reference price adjustments and contract price indexation methodologies
reduced the bankability of projects, mostly in advanced economies.
The third challenge involves permitting. The amount of time required to obtain
permits can range from one to five years for ground-mounted solar PV projects,
two to nine years for onshore wind, and nine years on average for offshore wind
projects. Delays resulting from complex and lengthy authorisation procedures are
slowing project pipeline growth, limiting participation in renewable energy
2
Connection queue data based on publicly available information from the United States, Brazil, Colombia, Spain, France,
Italy, the United Kingdom, India, Japan, Chile, Germany, Australia and Mexico.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
auctions, raising project risks and costs, and ultimately weakening project
economics.
4 500 CSP
4 000 Geothermal
3 500
Bioenergy
3 000
Hydropower
2 500
PV and wind for H2
2 000
Offshore wind
1 500
Onshore wind
1 000
PV-distributed
500
PV-utility
0
2005-2010 2011-2016 2017-2022 2023-2028 2023-2028
Main case Acc case
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: CSP = concentrated solar power. Capacity additions refer to net additions.
Governments have multiple options to address these challenges in the short term
to unlock 21% more renewable capacity in the accelerated case, with almost
4 500 GW becoming operational in the next five years. In our accelerated case
forecast, governments can achieve important policy improvements by:
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
For distributed solar PV, although we have already revised our forecast upwards
to reflect policy improvements and higher retail prices for electricity, the pace of
consumer adoption is always a forecast uncertainty, especially in a high-interest-
rate environment. Our accelerated case therefore assumes faster adoption of
residential and commercial solar PV thanks to the prolongation of high retail
electricity prices and government support for low-cost financing.
PAGE | 25
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Renewable capacity growth from 2022 to 2030 and the gap to global tripling renewables
goal
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
In 2023, G20 countries collectively accounted for almost 90% of global cumulative
renewable power capacity. In September 2023, G20 leaders declared their
willingness to “…pursue and encourage efforts to triple renewable energy capacity
globally through existing targets and policies, […], in line with national
circumstances by 2030”. Accordingly, they have the potential to significantly
contribute to a global tripling of renewables, through full and faster implementation
of existing policies and targets. However, stronger policy efforts are needed in
many other countries. Renewable energy expansion in 2023 was heavily
concentrated in just ten countries, responsible for 80% of global annual additions.
To achieve a tripling of global renewable capacity, a much faster deployment rate
is necessary in numerous other nations. Moreover, many emerging and
developing economies rely primarily on hydropower. This implies that solar PV
and wind must grow significantly more than threefold by 2030 to meet the global
tripling goal. Achieving this will demand new policies tailored to the unique
circumstances and requirements of emerging and developing nations.
PAGE | 26
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Cumulative renewable electricity capacity in the accelerated case (2022-2028) and Net
Zero Scenario (2030)
12 000 12 000
10 000 10 000
8 000 8 000
6 000 6 000
4 000 4 000
2 000 2 000
0 0
2030 NZE
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030 NZE
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
PV Wind Hydropower Bioenergy Other renewables Rest of the world G20 G7
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: NZE = IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. G7 and G20 aggregates include all EU countries. Solar PV and wind
include capacity dedicated to hydrogen production.
Source: For the Net Zero Scenario, IEA (2023), World Energy Outlook 2023.
Gaps also vary significantly by technology. For solar PV, additions need to
increase just 35% in 2029 and 2030 while for wind they would need to double. For
hydropower and other renewables, annual additions need to triple compared with
2027 and 2028.
Average annual renewable electricity capacity additions and gap to IEA NZE Scenario
NZE gap
2029-2030
Solar PV
Average annual capacity additions
2027-2028
Wind
Accelerated case
2025-26
Hydropower
2023-24
Other
renewables
2021-2022
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: NZE = IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. Capacity additions refer to net additions. Solar PV and wind
additions include capacity dedicated to hydrogen production.
Source: IEA (2023), World Energy Outlook 2023.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
450
400
350 2 000
300
250 1 500
200
150 1 000
100
50
500
0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
0
Historical Main case Accelerated 2011-16 2017-22 2023-28 2023-28
case Main case Acc. case
Hydropower Bioenergy Wind onshore Wind offshore Utility-scale PV Distributed PV Other renewables Hydrogen
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Hydrogen refers to renewable capacity dedicated to hydrogen production. Other renewables refers geothermal and
CSP.
With several policy and market trends doubling China’s renewable capacity
expansion in the next five years, we have revised its renewable energy forecast
up 64% from last year. First, solar PV module costs have plummeted drastically
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 28
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
because of the growing supply glut while interest rates have been in decline since
January 2023, making solar PV power more competitive with coal-fired
generation.
Second, recent power market reforms and green certificate systems have allowed
some utility-scale solar PV and wind developers to tap into better prices than under
regulated contracts. Electricity prices are higher in several provinces where more
power is traded in local wholesale markets. In addition, the energy regulator has
clarified its rules for green energy certificates, for which demand is increasing, and
developers in resource-rich areas can gain additional revenues by selling green
power to other provinces.
Third, provincial financial support for small-scale residential solar PV systems and
rising retail prices this year in the industry sector have been stimulating faster
commercial and industrial deployment.
However, China’s rapid solar PV and onshore wind growth is expected to present
grid integration challenges for new utility-scale and distributed PV projects and
impact project economics in the medium term. In North and Northeast provinces,
curtailment is expected to increase and reduce project bankability, especially
given the large number of plants being deployed in these grid areas.
United States
While the Inflation Reduction Act spurs solar PV-led growth, the
offshore wind forecast is revised down
The United States is forecast to add nearly 340 GW of renewable energy capacity
over 2023-2028, almost all in solar PV and wind installations. While supply chain
issues and trade concerns still linger in the market in the near term, the Inflation
Reduction Act (IRA) has accelerated the pace of additions from last year’s
forecast. Growth is stronger especially for the later years of the forecast period,
as final credit guidance from the Internal Revenue Service doubles annual
investments in renewable electricity from five years ago. Nevertheless, the
offshore wind forecast has been revised down by more than 60% because project
developers are cancelling or delaying planned or contracted capacity due to
current macroeconomic conditions.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
For utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind, growth is driven by the IRA’s clean
energy tax credits available for both technologies beginning in 2024. Projects can
qualify for either the investment or the production tax credit, with additional credits
for domestic content; for siting a project in an energy community, a low-income
community or a qualifying low-income residential building project of economic
benefit; and for paying prevailing wages and using registered apprentices. Solar
PV leads additions, with utility-scale capacity increasing steadily throughout the
forecast period, though a contraction in residential growth is expected in 2024 due
to net-metering rule changes in California, the country’s largest residential market.
Offshore wind growth is enabled by federal lease auctions and state-level tenders.
While the first major offshore wind project in the United States began delivering
power to the grid in 2023, additional projects that already received federal approval
create higher additions in the second half of the forecast period.
80 400
350
60
300
40 250
200
20
150
0 100
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
50
- 20
Historical Main case Accelerated 0
case - 50
2011-16 2017-22 2023-28 2023-28
Main case Acc. case
Hydropower Bioenergy Wind onshore Wind offshore Utility-scale PV Distributed PV Other renewables Hydrogen
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Hydrogen refers to renewable capacity dedicated to hydrogen production. Other renewables includes geothermal and
CSP. Negative net additions refer to retirements.
While the IRA provides long-term incentives for growth, some market challenges
persist. First are supply chain constraints, which have led to project delays for both
wind and solar PV. While logistical and pricing challenges have eased, the
compounding effects of previous delays are still being felt, especially in the short
term.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 30
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Second, grid constraints and connection queue backlogs are a growing concern.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Committee has therefore issued new rules to
reduce connection queues, and some regional TSOs have reconfigured their
project assessment policy to meet rising demand.
Two additional challenges for solar PV are the potential for modules to be delayed
at ports while customs officials verify compliance with trade regulations, and
consumer hesitancy to install distributed PV due to inflation and rising interest
rates. A similar challenge exists for offshore wind, with multiple projects being
cancelled, delayed or requesting contract price renegotiations because rising
costs and interest rates have changed the project economics.
Asia Pacific
Renewable capacity is expected to increase by almost 430 GW over 2023-2028 –
73% growth from 2022. Solar PV makes up over two-thirds of the expansion,
mostly from utility-scale applications. India will account for half of the region's
growth, with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) contributing
14% and Japan 11%. By 2028, annual Asia-Pacific renewable energy capacity
growth is expected to almost double from the 2022 level, but its contribution to
global expansion remains the same. Overall, our forecast is mostly unchanged
from last year, as downward revisions for Korea and Australia are offset by a more
positive outlook for India and Japan.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
GW
600 600 60%
-1.0%
500 500 50%
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Other includes geothermal and renewable capacity dedicated to hydrogen. APAC = Asia Pacific. IND = India. ASEAN
= Association of Southeast Asian Nations. JPN = Japan. AUS = Australia.
Conversely, we are revising Korea’s forecast down by over 40% and Australia’s
down by over 10%. In Korea, this revision results mainly from the government's
decision to lower the renewable energy target for 2030 from 30% to 22%. This
shift reflects a strategic decision to enlarge the role of nuclear power in the
country’s energy transition. In addition, auctions, which are the primary
mechanism to support renewable energy growth, continued to be significantly
undersubscribed in 2023.
In Australia, a lack of new federal incentives and rising investment costs have
delayed the development of new projects. Notably, the distributed PV segment,
which has been the primary source of growth in Australia in recent years, is
forecast to experience a faster-than-anticipated decline in installations due to
saturation of the power system and increasing grid integration challenges.
For the ASEAN region, our forecast is mostly unchanged from last year. In
Indonesia, the government issued a decree in 2022 to establish a policy
framework for a new auction-based renewable energy support system. However,
the detailed regulations necessary for procurement and project development were
still pending as of October 2023, which has delayed the expected positive impact
of the new policy.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
In Thailand, the continued absence of substantial policy support has limited the
pace of renewable energy growth, with only modest additions expected for the
distributed PV segment.
Upside potential for the ASEAN region is even more significant, close to 60% and
giving it one of the highest growth possibilities globally. However, realising this
potential will require more ambitious renewable energy targets and the swift
implementation of long-term, transparent and competitive support policies.
In the developed countries of the Asia Pacific region, i.e. Japan, Korea and
Australia, overcoming grid bottlenecks, streamlining lengthy permitting processes
and enhancing system flexibility should be prioritised to accelerate deployment.
The region also has a very young fossil fuel-fired fleet capable of meeting
electricity demand even in 2028, with more under development. Many of these
assets have entered fixed or take-or-pay contracts with utility companies to secure
financing. Utilities bound by legacy supply contracts for the next 10-15 years have
little financial incentive to contract new renewable power, as they are obligated to
compensate fossil fuel plant operators for any displaced generation. This would
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
create additional financial stress for multiple utilities in the region. Viet Nam
remains an exception, having dynamic demand growth that allows the public utility
to procure power from all sources, with cost being the primary criterion.
Share of VRE generation in the main case forecast, 2016-2028 (left), installed
dispatchable capacity and peak power demand, 2022 (right)
20% 90
GW
80
70
15%
60
50
10%
40
30
5% 20
10
0% 0
2016
2022
2028
2016
2022
2028
2016
2022
2028
2016
2022
2028
2016
2022
2028
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: VRE = variable renewable energy.
Considering the relatively low penetration of wind and solar PV systems in many
ASEAN economies, the upside potential in our accelerated case compared with
the main case is one of the largest of all regions. Until 2028, variable renewable
energy (VRE) generation in the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia is
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Existing dispatchable assets, primarily fossil fuel and hydropower plants, should
provide the flexibility necessary to accommodate PV and wind capacity, even in
the accelerated case. Nevertheless, to take advantage of this affordable and
relatively easy-to-integrate variable renewable energy, government support will be
required to address the challenges of conventional power plant overcapacity and
inflexible legacy contracts.
Viet Nam remains an exception in this regard because the country is already
experiencing system integration challenges following the solar PV boom in which
installations reached 20 GW in 2019 and 2020. This rapid expansion of solar PV
in such a short time in concentrated areas resulted in generation curtailment and
the need to enlarge investments in transmission and distribution infrastructure
quickly.
Europe
The pace of renewable capacity growth in Europe will more than double in
2023-2028 compared with the previous six years, with additions totalling 532 GW.
Solar PV accounts for over 70% of the expansion, led by distributed systems,
which is one-third more than utility-scale. Wind accounts for another 26% led by
onshore projects.
The main drivers for utility-scale growth are: 1) supportive policies, in the form of
government auctions to achieve long-term renewable energy targets; and 2)
attractive market conditions for unsubsidised projects through bilateral contracts
between IPPs and corporate consumers or utilities, in some cases supported by
revenues from the wholesale market. Owing to high retail electricity prices and
policies that remunerate excess generation, the business case for self-
consumption is a major attraction for distributed solar PV uptake.
While we have revised the forecast for Europe up by 12% from last year, this
reflects solely a more optimistic outlook for solar PV. Distributed solar PV
continues to be the main source of expansion, and the main reason for the upward
revision because high electricity prices and better policy support are making self-
consumption more economically attractive. Sixty percent of the additional
distributed PV capacity revision comes from Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the
United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium, where governments have
introduced new feed-in tariffs and tax exemptions and extended existing support
schemes in 2022 to accelerate distributed PV uptake. This resulted in record-
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
breaking growth in 2022 and in some markets, higher than expected growth in
2023, prompting our upward forecast revision.
Since the Renewables 2022 forecast, other European countries’ outlooks have
also been revised upwards as they continued to implement new policies in 2023.
For instance, Finland mandated net metering for all DSOs starting in January while
Ireland increased its size eligibility from 6 kW to 1 MW. In the first five months of
2023, Switzerland, Slovenia and Bulgaria introduced rebate schemes, while
funding for existing rebate schemes was increased in Czechia and Romania.
Romania also reduced its VAT for PV systems from 19% to 5% in January, while
Ireland slashed it to 0% in April and Austria followed suit in October.
Europe renewable capacity additions by technology, main and accelerated cases, 2011-
2028 (left) and forecast revisions (right)
800 80 80%
GW
GW
60 46% 60%
600
40 40%
400
20 5% 20%
200 0 0%
- 20 -7% -20%
0 -7%
2011-16 2017-22 2023-28 2023-28 -43%
- 40 -51% -40%
Main Acc.
case Case
- 60 -60%
Hydrogen Other renewables
Distrib. Utility- Wind Hydrogen Others Wind
Distributed PV Utility-scale PV PV scale PV offshore onshore
Wind offshore Wind onshore
Bioenergy Hydropower Revision Percent change
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Hydrogen refers to renewable capacity dedicated to hydrogen production. Other renewables refers geothermal and
CSP.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Contrary to solar PV, this year’s forecast is less optimistic about the growth of wind
and renewable capacity for hydrogen production compared with Renewables
2022. Onshore wind has the largest downward revision, 5.4 GW lower growth
(-7%) than in the previous forecast because deployment in some markets was
more sluggish than expected in 2022 (permitting and grid constraints led to
undersubscribed auctions and lengthy project development times).
Also in 2022, Spain, Italy and Greece awarded less capacity than they offered due
to developers’ inability to obtain permits and/or more attractive business cases
through other routes to market such as corporate PPAs or merchant tails.
Uncertainty over the introduction of new support in the Republic of Türkiye
(hereafter “Türkiye”) and extension of the SDE++ programme in the Netherlands
after 2022 have also led to lulls in the project pipeline.
The forecast for offshore wind has been revised down 7% because of persistently
long lead times and concerns over the economic attractiveness of future projects.
Postponements are expected for projects in Belgium and France after announced
commissioning dates were pushed back; in Poland due to funding delays for port
infrastructure; and in Sweden owing to a permitting denial. In the United Kingdom,
fewer projects are expected to be developed because developers are not finding
them bankable. No offshore wind capacity was awarded in the October 2023
auction because the ceilings were too low, while another developer has halted a
project due to rising costs.
Despite these downward revisions, in the main case the share of renewable
electricity generation in Europe increases from 41% in 2022 to 61% in 2028.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
However, it is uncertain for two reasons whether this pace will be fast enough to
meet 2030 ambitions. The first is that for EU countries, 2030 targets are in a state
of transition. In July 2023, the European Union formally decided to increase the
share of renewable energy in final energy consumption from 32% to 42.5% by
2030 to accelerate decarbonisation and reinforce energy security.
As a result, member states are now in the process of redesigning their National
Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), wherein they assess their contribution to the
new EU target and set new individual goals when necessary. At the time of writing,
only 21 of the 27 countries had submitted drafts, of which only 14 explicitly set
renewable electricity targets. Final targets for all countries will likely be known only
after the review process ends in June 2024.
European Union renewable energy share in electricity generation by country, 2022 and
2028, and NECP targets (2019 and 2023 draft)
100%
Share of renewable electricity (%)
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: NECP = National Energy and Climate Plan. Data for Luxembourg and Malta are unavailable.
Note by Türkiye: The information in this document with reference to « Cyprus » relates to the southern part of the Island.
There is no single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Türkiye recognises the Turkish
Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations,
Türkiye shall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”.
Note by all the European Union member states of the OECD and the European Union: The Republic of Cyprus is recognised
by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Türkiye. The information in this document relates to the area
under the effective control of the e Government of Government of the Republic of Cyprus.
Sources: IEA analysis based on NECP data from EMBER (2023), Live EU NECP Tracker.
The second source of uncertainty is the persistent obstacles that countries face to
accelerate renewable energy deployment: slow and complex permitting
procedures; grid congestion; and inadequate policy support in today’s economic
climate. The extent to which these obstacles affect each country varies: for some,
the impact is sizable enough that they risk not meeting their original 2030 targets
associated with the former EU target of 32% set in 2019 (i.e. France and the
Netherlands). Faster policy implementation would be needed to reach higher
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
NECP ambitions. While these impediments are also present in other countries,
the extent of their impact on progress towards meeting any new goals remains to
be seen when their new targets are defined in June 2024. Nonetheless, Europe’s
challenges are not insurmountable, governments can overcome them with prompt
policy actions as outlined below. Should countries act we could see growth
accelerate by 32%; higher (701 GW) by 2028.
Grid congestion and lengthy connection queues: Long grid queues due to
complex application processes and inadequate network capacity are increasing
project lead times in many countries and driving up costs for developers as they
await licensing. For example, developers in Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, and
Bulgaria have cited long grid connection queues as an issue, while grid operators
in Greece and Hungary have stopped accepting applications for large-scale
systems altogether.
Some countries have taken steps in the past year to shorten grid queues. For
example, some governments have published maps of available locations for
developers (e.g. Austria and Denmark), simplified grid connection requirements
for residential systems (e.g. Germany), and published guidelines to clarify
processes (e.g. Portugal). To address congestion, Spain has mandated that grid
operators include a minimum amount of distributed generation in their network
investment plans, while other countries have increased their budgets for
transmission investment. Incentivising storage by subsidising behind-the-meter
batteries and holding auctions for large-scale storage (Greece) are also being
used to increase system flexibility and accommodate more variable generation. In
addition, the EU Grid Action Plan released in November 2023 identifies actions
that key stakeholders can take to accelerate the pace of grid investment.
For instance, in Spain only 46 MW of the 3.3 GW of capacity available had been
awarded in the auction in November 2022, partly because the economics of
unsubsidised projects were more appealing, and in the United Kingdom none of
4 GW of offshore wind on offer in the UK technology-neutral auction was
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
contracted because bidders found maximum bid prices too low. Inadequate ceiling
prices have also been responsible for the awarding of low volumes in France,
Greece and Poland.
In some countries, the impact has been visible: in Germany, for instance, permits
for 6.6 GW of onshore wind were granted in the first eleven months of 2023 –
almost 70% than the 3.9 GW issued in 2022 – owing to regulatory reforms in 2022.
Meanwhile, Spain granted 25 GW of solar PV environmental assessments in
January 2023 to meet new deadlines to maintain grid connection permits. Yet in
other countries, translating legislation into action has been more challenging. In
the United Kingdom, the government announced plans to remove a de facto ban
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
on wind permits but has yet to make progress, while in Romania new permitting
reforms are being misinterpreted, resulting in the rejection of project applications.
Latin America
Capacity additions decline throughout the forecast period due to slower growth in
Brazil, the region’s largest market. Hydropower made up over half of additions in
2011-2016 but has since dropped significantly and will represent only 5% of all
additions in the forecast period.
80
GW
35
70
30
60
25
50
20
40
15
30
10 20
5 10
0 0
Brazil Chile Mexico Argentina Colombia Other Latin America and Caribbean
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: “Other” in right graph includes CSP, geothermal and capacity dedicated to hydrogen production.
Auctions are no longer the primary stimulant for utility-scale solar PV and wind
additions, as development in major markets such as Brazil, Chile, Argentina and
Mexico are now increasingly taking place outside of government-run auction
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
schemes. In Brazil, bilateral agreements in the free market enable over 85% of
utility-scale solar PV and wind additions in the forecast period. In Argentina up to
80% of additions are from corporate PPAs, while Chile’s majority of additions are
through corporate PPAs or merchant projects.
Corporations are contracting more capacity through PPAs for greater price
certainty and to reach corporate decarbonisation goals. However, smaller markets
such as Ecuador, Guatemala and Honduras have been using competitive auctions
to spur solar PV and wind deployment.
There are two reasons for continued distributed solar PV expansion in Brazil
despite lower incentives. The first is that residential electricity rates have been
rising since 2019 due to low hydropower output and increased demand. The
second is that system costs remain low. Thus, the combination of these factors
means that the payback period for residential systems has increased only
moderately, from an average of just under five years to around five and a half
years, helping drive growth.
GW
160
10
150
140 8
130
6
120
110 4
100
2
90
80 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Santa Catarina Minas Gerais
São Paulo (1) São Paulo (2)
Mato Grosso do Sul Bahia Brazil Chile Mexico Argentina Other LAM
Espírito Santo
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Sources: IEA analysis based on tariff adjustment data from Celesc, Cemig, CFPL Paulista, ENEL Sao Paulo, Neoenergia
Elektro, Neoenergia Coebla and EDP Brasil (left).
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
In the accelerated case, improving system integration, raising auction demand and
minimising macroeconomic risks could produce 14% higher additions for Latin
America. While auctions are no longer a primary growth driver in Brazil and Chile,
increased demand and adjusted pricing could lead to higher participation,
accelerating expansion in both countries. In Argentina, macroeconomic
challenges hamper growth.
Sub-Saharan Africa
Over nearly 64 GW of new renewable capacity is forecast for sub-Saharan Africa
from 2023 to 2028, more than doubling the region’s current installed capacity. The
forecast has been revised up nearly 20% because of strong expansion in South
Africa, which accounts for nearly 50% of additions in the region. Outside of South
Africa, hydropower drives over 6 GW of additions in Ethiopia, distributed solar PV
enables 5 GW of additions in Nigeria, and Angola and Kenya add over 2 GW of
new renewable capacity each.
While solar PV and wind make up nearly 80% of new additions across the market,
this mainly reflects additions in South Africa, which is responsible for the vast
majority. South Africa’s auction programme and the expansion of industrial and
residential solar PV applications remain the key regional growth drivers.
Thus, when South Africa is excluded, the regional forecast is revised down over
5% due to the lack of support programmes and limited project pipelines. Wind and
solar PV installations make up just 40% of additions, as many countries are heavily
reliant on large-scale hydropower. For instance, a single hydropower project in
Angola is responsible for nearly 90% of the country’s total renewable energy
expansion over the forecast period, while two projects in Ethiopia contribute nearly
85% and Tanzania’s renewable energy market expansion over the next five years
is 80% dependant on hydropower. While large-scale hydropower projects can
cost-effectively improve electricity access, they can take a decade or more to plan
and build. As a result, annual additions can fluctuate following hydropower
investment cycles.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
14 90%
80%
12
70%
10 60%
8 50%
6 40%
30%
4
20%
2 10%
0 0%
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Slow grid expansion in rural areas also creates opportunities for solar PV
expansion, with off-grid solar PV additions totalling over 1 GW in our forecast. In
many markets, rural electrification agencies are increasing the integration of these
systems. For example, Nigeria’s Rural Electrification Agency has leveraged both
the public and private sectors to build mini grids across the country, electrifying
communities, schools and hospitals with solar PV systems. International
development banks and foreign governments supplement national programmes,
providing additional financing and technical expertise. These combined efforts
help increase electrification, especially in areas not served by a national grid.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Smooth, swift policy transitions can also facilitate higher additions. For example,
Kenya is planning to transition from a system based on feed-in tariffs to an auction
scheme. While the initial auctions have yet to be announced, firm pricing
structures coupled with a reliable schedule would accelerate additions. In South
Africa, pending legislation could enable additional IPP projects, further increasing
investment.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Sub-Saharan Africa contract prices for solar PV installations, with and without DFI
support
0.14
USD/kWh
2017
0.12 USD/kWh
0.10
2023
0.08 2023
2019
0.06
2019 2019
0.04
0.02
0.00
Botswana Kenya Malawi* Senegal Zambia Zambia (Get
(Scaling Solar) FiT)
Without DFI support With DFI support
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
*Cost estimated based on publicly available information.
Note: DFI = development finance institution.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
expected to accelerate to more than three times the previous five-year period, with
solar PV making up over 85% of the increase. Onshore wind and concentrated
solar power also contribute. More than one-third of the growth will be in Saudi
Arabia alone, followed by the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Oman, Egypt,
Israel3 and Jordan. These seven countries account for over 90% of the region’s
growth.
Competitive auctions are the leading stimulus for renewable capacity expansion
in the region, accounting for 35% of growth. Almost all countries have
implemented government tenders to procure private investment for utility-scale
PV, onshore wind or CSP. Owing to the region’s rich solar resources, attractive
economies of scale for large projects and advantageous financing conditions, these
tenders have produced some of the lowest bid prices in the world for solar PV.
However, opening the auctions, qualifying bidders, selecting winners and signing
PPAs can sometimes take several years, impeding faster growth. As a result,
expansion through mechanisms other than competitive auctions (i.e. unsolicited
bilateral contracts with utilities, and corporate PPAs in the markets that allow them)
has been increasing.
Middle East and North Africa capacity additions, and primary drivers of utility-scale
growth by country
120 25
GW
GW
100
20
80
15
60
10
40
5
20
0 0
2011-16 2017-22 2023-28 2023-28 Saudi United Morocco Oman Egypt Israel* Jordan
Main case Acc. case Arabia Arab
Emirates
Hydrogen CSP Distributed PV Auctions Hydrogen Unsolicited Utilty- Corporate
Utility-scale PV Wind offshore Wind onshore bilateral owned PPA
Bioenergy Hydropower contracts
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
* Statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data
by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank
under the terms of international law.
Notes: Procurement refers to the mechanism by which electricity generation is bought and sold. This analysis only covers
procurement methods for the sale of electricity generation; it excludes any additional subsidies on capital costs, such as tax
credits, accelerated depreciation, rebates, grants, etc. Hydrogen refers to renewable capacity dedicated to hydrogen
production.
3
Statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data
by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank
under the terms of international law.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
source of growth in the region owing to large projects earmarked for export in
Saudi Arabia, Oman and the United Arab Emirates. In fact, hydrogen accounts for
more than 13% of the region’s renewable capacity growth thanks to government
policies to stimulate development for trade. Good solar resources, land availability
and existing port infrastructure create favourable conditions for economically
attractive renewable hydrogen to be shipped to demand centres in Europe and
Asia.
Nevertheless, growth could be 70% higher with three main improvements in the
region. The first is faster procurement of utility-scale capacity through competitive
auctions. Announcing future auctions with key dates for the selection process, and
implementing them in a timely manner, would accelerate project development as
well as increase investor confidence. Publishing long-term auction schedules
detailing planned volumes and dates would also provide longer-term visibility for
investors.
Over the forecast period, wind and solar PV costs are expected to continue
declining. In the second quarter of 2023, the price of PV modules from China was
almost 40% lower than in 2022 (see wind and solar PV manufacturing section),
and supply-demand dynamics indicate further drops in the next five years. For
wind, investment costs are expected to remain high in the short term due to supply
chain challenges and the weak financial health of major Western manufacturers.
However, this translates into only a 10-15% increase in generation costs for
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
onshore wind power plants and does not really change their competitiveness with
fossil fuel alternatives, as their costs have also risen.
Wind and solar PV systems will become more cost-competitive during the forecast
period. In fact, we estimate that by 2028 almost all wind and solar PV capacity
deployed will provide lower generation costs than coal and natural gas alternatives
for new plants. Current cost decline trends in China indicate that in the next five
years, new offshore wind plants could be more economically attractive than new
coal plants, helping China meet its official net zero goal.
Generation costs of new onshore wind and utility-scale solar PV are also
becoming increasingly lower compared with existing fossil fuel-fired plants. In
2023, three-quarters of newly installed solar PV and onshore wind capacity offered
cheaper power generation than existing fossil fuel facilities. In China, India and
the European Union, the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) from solar PV plants is
below the marginal cost of generating electricity from existing coal- and natural
gas-fired plants. It is estimated that by 2028, over 80% of newly installed variable
capacity will provide electricity more affordably than existing fossil fuel
alternatives.
Share of utility-scale wind and PV with lower levelised cost of energy than new coal
and natural gas power plants (left) and existing plants(right), 2022-2028
New PV and wind vs new fossil fuel plants New PV and wind vs existing fossil fuel plants
100% 100%
% of new wind and PV capacity
75% 75%
competitiveness
50% 50%
25% 25%
0% 0%
2023 2028 2023 2028
Wind and PV costs lower than fossil fuels Wind and PV costs higher than fossil fuels
Value-adjusted wind and PV costs lower than fossil fuels
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: The analysis in this figure represents around 85% of global renewable capacity additions in 2023 and 2028. The cost
comparison considers the World Energy Outlook’s STEPS scenario published in October 2023.
Source: IEA (2023), World Energy Outlook 2023.
However, assessing competitiveness based on generation costs for both new and
existing plants can be misleading for variable renewable energy technologies, as
they need to be accompanied by dispatchable and flexible power plants or coupled
with storage at higher penetration levels. While existing dispatchable capacity
(e.g. natural gas-fired and hydropower) already offer ample flexibility in many
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
The IEA uses the value-adjusted LCOE (VALCOE), which is a more complete
metric of competitiveness for power generation technologies than the LCOE
alone, as it combines a technology’s LCOE with the simulated value of three
system services: energy, flexibility and capacity. According to the IEA analysis,
the value of variable technologies will fall as their use becomes more widespread,
especially for solar PV. Accordingly, the VALCOE of utility-scale PV could be as
much as double the LCOE calculations depending on the country’s technology
mix and renewables penetration. A rising share of variable renewables leads to
higher cannibalisation effects, which tend to make variable renewables less
competitive than the LCOE alone would suggest. These effects are reflected in a
higher VALCOE for solar PV and wind (compared with the LCOE) and a lower or
stable VALCOE for dispatchable sources of electricity in the future. Even when
considering increasing flexibility and reliability requirements, new utility-scale solar
and onshore wind power plants’ in the United States, European Union, China and
India will still be lower than fossil fuel alternatives at the end of the forecast period.
Although VOLCOE is a fuller and more accurate measure of competitiveness, it is
not all encompassing: it does not yet account for network integration such as
transmission and distribution grid enhancements.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
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The analysis presented in this section is aimed at estimating the implied support
required by solar PV and wind power, calculated as a difference between
generation costs from these technologies and from fossil fuels 4. Global annual net
value of that support for all capacity installed since 2005 more than quintupled
between 2010 and 2020. It was a result of accelerating renewables deployment
and still high share of generation from older, more expensive installations.
However, global support levels declined from about USD 125 billion 5 in 2020 to
about USD 80 billion of savings in 2022 marking a change in the long-term trend.
There were two main reasons behind this: (1) the energy crisis caused by the
Russian Federation’s (hereafter “Russia”) invasion of Ukraine lead to an
unprecedented surge in natural gas and coal prices, especially in Europe; (2) a
step increase in low-cost VRE generation due to record capacity additions.
Global estimated net annual support for solar PV and wind electricity generation, 2010-
2028
150 120
USD/MWh
USD billion
125 100
100 80
75 60
50 40
25 20
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
- 25 -20
- 50 -40
- 75 -60
- 100 -80
Total support (LCOE) Total support (VALCOE)
Support per MWh (LCOE) Support per MWh (VALCOE)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: LCOE = levelized cost of electricity. VALCOE = value-adjusted LCOE.
Source: IEA analysis based on IRENA, EIA, Argus, Bloomberg LP, World Energy Outlook 2023.
4
Analysis presented in this section focuses on estimating the difference between average electricity generation costs from
wind and PV plants and from fossil fuel power plants. Analysis was conducted for China, the United States, European Union
member countries, United Kingdom and India, where average spot prices of hard coal, natural gas and CO2 emission
allowances were used to estimate the variable generation costs of displaced fossil fuel generation. These countries represent
about 77% of total VRE generation in 2023 and 81% in 2028.
Costs of energy from PV and wind were estimated in two ways. LCOE approach assumed that VRE generation costs are
equal to Levelized Costs of Electricity, therefore assuming simple replacement of one type of electricity with another. In
VALCOE approach, VRE costs were calculated based on Value-Adjusted LCOE, where a value of electricity to the power
system is considered. This approach has the highest impact on solar PV generation costs in the power systems with high
VRE penetration and a moderate impact on wind costs.
Conducted analysis is an estimate with multiple sensitivities. Following factors, which were not taken into account could have
resulted in overestimation of support value by assuming lower reference fossil fuel generation costs: (1) possible increased
demand for fossil fuels leading to higher prices in a scenario of lower VRE generation; (2) possible cases when VRE
expansion removes a need for deployment of new fossil fuel power plants; (3) subsidies received by fossil fuel mining industry
and generators; (4) prioritizing displacement of generation from the most expensive fossil fuel power plants following the
merit order.
5
All monetary values are expressed in 2022 USD.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
In 2023 fuel prices returned to pre-crisis levels in the United States, China and
India but remained elevated in the European Union. As a result, global net support
returned to positive value but only 30-40% of the 2020 level. In a scenario
assuming continuation of costs decline trend for new renewables and the price
environment for fossil fuels based on the second half of 2023, global support for
PV and wind power could turn into savings starting in 2027. Even in an analysis
approach considering the changing value of VRE for the power system (VALCOE
approach), the required global support will decline to around USD 50 billion by
2028, half of the estimated annual average over 2015-2020. This translates to
average costs difference between electricity generation from fossil fuel plants and
VRE decreasing from close to 70 USD/MWh in 2020 to -3 USD/MWh (savings) in
LCOE approach or about 10 USD/MWh in VALCOE approach by 2028.
Average global LCOE decreased from USD 105/MWh to USD 35/MWh for
onshore wind and from USD 450/MWh to USD 50/MWh for utility-scale PV
between 2010 and 2022. Starting from 2019, generation costs for new VRE plants
started to become cheaper than existing fossil fuel plants in many countries,
especially when fossil fuel generation costs increased drastically at the end of
2021 and in 2022. In the high fossil fuel price environment of 2022, in European
Union almost all installed wind capacity and most of utility-scale PV deployed since
2013 had provided cheaper electricity than coal and natural gas plants.
Net global support for solar PV and wind electricity generation, total (left) and per MWh
of renewable electricity generation (right), 2015-2028
USD/Mwh
60 450
400
40
350
20 300
250
0 200
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
150
-20
100
-40 50
0
-60
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
-50
-80 -100
PAGE | 52
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Over 2011-2020, onshore wind was responsible for about 40% of global net
support for VRE, mostly due to its large share in wind and PV electricity
generation. At the same time, onshore wind support per MWh of generated
electricity remained the lowest compared to solar PV. In 2022, onshore wind
provided over USD 70 billion of net savings globally, mostly in Europe.
Technology’s low generation costs and higher system value (compared with solar
PV) are expected to provide savings throughout the forecast period both in LCOE
and VALCOE analysis approach.
Share of global PV and wind electricity production by generation costs, LCOE (left) and
VALCOE (right) approach, 2010-2028
LCOE VALCOE
100% 200 100% 200
USd/MWh
USD/MWh
90% 180 90% 180
80% 160 80% 160
70% 140 70% 140
60% 120 60% 120
50% 100 50% 100
40% 80 40% 80
30% 60 30% 60
20% 40 20% 40
10% 20 10% 20
0% 0 0% 0
2010 2016 2022 2028 2010 2016 2022 2028
<40 USD/MWh 40-60 USD/MWh 60-80 USD/MWh 80-100 USD/MWh >100 USD/MWh Average cost
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: LCOE = levelized cost of electricity. VALCOE = value-adjusted LCOE.
Source: IEA analysis based on IRENA, World Energy Outlook 2023.
Renewable generation costs analysis described above includes all PV and wind
systems commissioned since 2005 and assumes that their generation costs
remain unchanged throughout plants’ lifetime. The trend of decreasing costs of
new wind and PV and accelerating capacity additions, leads to increasing share
of low-cost generation in total VRE mix. The average cost of VRE generation is
expected to decrease from about USD 155/MWh in 2010 to USD 60/MWh in case
of LCOE and USD 75/MWh when considering VALCOE in 2028.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
In 2022, about 20% of all wind and PV had generation costs below USD 40/MWh,
lower than variable generation cost of most hard coal and natural gas power plants
in Europe, China and India. This share is expected to reach 40% in 2028 with an
increasing number of VRE plants generating savings. However, the share declines
to about 15% when considering their value to the system.
Average cost of VRE and displaced fossil fuel generation (LCOE approach), total VRE
generation, 2015-2028
China
USA
350 4 000 350 1 400
GWh
Generation (GWh)
Cost (USD/MWh)
USD/MWh
300 3 500 300 1 200
3 000 250 1 000
250
2 500
200 200 800
2 000
150 150 600
1 500
100 100 400
1 000
50 500 50 200
0 0 0 2015 0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
EU and UK India
600 1 600 200 500
USD/MWh
GWh
US/MWh
GWh
1 400 450
500
400
1 200 150
400 350
1 000 300
300 800 100 250
600 200
200
150
400 50
100 100
200 50
0 0 0 0
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Until 2020, the European Union and the United Kingdom were responsible for over
half of total support for wind and PV generation, mostly due to early deployment
(especially small scale residential and commercial PV) at higher generation costs.
However, during the energy crisis in 2021-2022 VRE has allowed to achieve an
estimated USD 85 billion of savings, because of sharp increase in fossil fuel
prices. If fossil prices remain at levels observed in the second half of 2023,
onshore wind and solar PV are expected to provide savings even when their lower
value to the power system is considered.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
In China, record low wind and solar PV generation costs in recent years and the
expected continuation of accelerating capacity additions lead to significant
decrease in overall annual support over the forecast period. However, considering
it’s VALCOE, solar PV could need some support depending on provincial VRE
penetration levels.
Net global support for solar PV and wind electricity generation by country or region,
LCOE (left) and VALCOE (right) approach, 2010-2028
LCOE VALCOE
USD billion
0.15%
100 100
0.10%
50 50
0.05%
0 0 0.00%
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
-0.05%
-50 -50
-0.10%
-100 -100
-0.15%
Beyond the forecast period, the support required for wind and PV is likely to
decline, with many countries seeing savings driven by low cost renewables and
the replacement of older installations. This will drive the average cost of renewable
electricity down. At the same time, inclusion of greenhouse gas emissions in fossil
fuel generation costs planned in many countries is likely to further increase the
competitiveness of VRE.
PAGE | 55
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
The two most prominent policies have been administratively set tariffs for
remuneration (wherein the government offers developers a fixed tariff or premium)
and competitive auctions (wherein the government puts a set amount of capacity
up for bid and sets a limit on what it will pay for the contracted power). The leading
source of auction-driven growth are two-way fixed contracts for difference, entirely
driven by Europe where they account for more than one-third of the region’s utility-
scale renewables growth. Tax credits, a third policy option, raise the economic
attractiveness of a project significantly by reducing the developer’s tax liability.
Utility-owned projects in regulated markets are a fourth form of policy-based
deployment, as the investment decision is likely influenced by the regulatory
environment by default.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
The high global share of policy-driven deployment comes largely from China,
where policies underpin 95% of the country’s growth. For instance, China is
forecast to deploy around 1 285 GW of capacity almost entirely from
administratively set fixed tariffs for 15-20 years based on the provincial benchmark
electricity price, mostly defined by coal generation. Competitive auctions with a
budget cap at the national level were held in 2020 but have since been stopped
as the government phased out subsidies for utility-scale wind and solar PV.
However, market-based deployment, accounting for 5% of the expansion, is
expected to grow, thanks to the new green certificate regulations introduced in
both 2022 and 2023 to facilitate interprovincial trade and track progress in meeting
provincial renewable energy targets.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: GC = Green certificate. Primary drivers refer to the financial incentive or revenue stream by which the investment
decision is made. In some markets, projects can benefit from multiple financial incentives and/or stack different revenue
streams, but data in this analysis are classified based on assumptions of which incentive or revenue stream most affects the
business case for investment. For example, if a project is awarded through a government-held contract-for-difference (CfD)
auction, the entire project is assigned to that category regardless of it having other revenue streams such as a corporate
PPAs or merchant tail. Forecast refers to utility-scale projects for primary markets equivalent to 95% of global renewable
electricity capacity growth.
The high share of market-driven growth in the rest of the world is led by South
Africa’s corporate PPA market, owing in part to the need to reduce impacts of load
shedding, and unsolicited bilateral contracts in Saudi Arabia and Egypt also
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
contribute. Both countries have auction systems for solar PV and wind, but PPAs
are being signed more quickly through bilateral negotiations than through public
procurement processes.
100% 100%
Share of utility growth
75% 75%
50% 50%
25% 25%
0% 0%
Pumped
Offshore
Solar PV
Onshore
Geothermal
Hydropower
CSP
Bioenergy
storage
Pumped
Offshore
Solar PV
Onshore
Geothermal
Hydropower
CSP
Bioenergy
storage
wind
wind
wind
wind
Merchant and GCs Unsolicited bilateral contracts
Market-driven Policy-driven Corporate PPAs Utility-owned
Tax credits Feed-in tariffs/premiums
Auctions
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: CSP = concentrated solar power, GC = green certificate. Hydropower refers to conventional hydropower. Data
represent global market growth by procurement type excluding China.
Competitive auctions are also the dominant procurement method in Asia Pacific,
led by India, Viet Nam and Korea, while feed-in tariffs also boost expansion in
Japan and Chinese Taipei. Most market-driven growth in the Asia-Pacific region
comes from unsolicited contracts for hydropower projects in India and Pakistan,
and corporate PPAs in Australia for onshore wind and PV.
Excluding China, competitive auctions are the single largest catalyst of utility-scale
renewable capacity additions between 2023 and 2028. However, this is largely
due to their importance in solar and wind deployment, which account for 93% of
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
the utility-scale forecast. For other technologies, different policy and market
drivers are more important.
CSP and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) have the highest shares of policy-
driven growth in 2023-2028 due to the high upfront investments and challenging
business cases of both technologies. For CSP, growth comes entirely from
competitive auctions in Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and South Africa, most
of which have state-backed financing to improve project bankability. For pumped
storage, over 80% of the expansion is driven by state-owned utilities, mostly in
single-buyer markets because price signals in liberalised markets do not provide
a strong enough business case. Growth is led by India, Indonesia, Australia,
Viet Nam, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates because of their need to
increase storage capabilities and minimise overall system costs to integrate rising
shares of variable renewable energy.
Despite having similar flexibility needs, Europe and the United States account for
only 10% of PSH capacity growth. Securing investment in these markets is
challenging because revenues are limited due to shrinking arbitrage opportunities
and restricted access to capacity or ancillary service markets.
Although competitive auctions are the main catalyst of growth for variable
renewables, they play a larger role in offshore wind procurement than for onshore
wind and solar PV, which have slightly higher shares of market-driven growth.
Conversely, only a handful of offshore wind projects commissioned by 2028 are
expected to have most of their business model based on corporate PPAs or
merchant revenues – namely projects in the Netherlands and Viet Nam.
While offshore wind projects in other markets have announced that their business
models will be based on CPPAs and merchant revenues, it is likely they will also
rely on revenues from competitive auctions. However, CPPAs could become more
important in the offshore wind market as way to finance new projects awarded
through non-price criteria.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Meanwhile, just over half of bioenergy deployment results from policy stimulus,
mostly feed-in tariffs in Türkiye and Japan and competitive auctions in Germany
and the Netherlands. Market-based procurement is expected from unsolicited
bilateral contracts in India and Sweden, and some merchant projects in the United
Kingdom, Germany and Argentina.
Several factors explain the rise in market-driven procurement in Europe. The first
is increased demand for corporate PPAs from large consumers to lock in low-cost
power as a hedge against high, volatile power prices and to meet sustainability
goals. Retail electricity rates in Europe have increased 15-20% on average since
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, boosting corporate consumer appetite for renewable
energy.
In parallel, corporate PPA prices jumped 50% from EUR 72/MWh in February
2022 to EUR 108/MWh by September 2022. Although prices have fallen 50%
since their peak in September 2022 to EUR 52.2/MWh by November 2023, they
nevertheless remain higher than pre-war levels and are still well below wholesale
prices, thus they are expected to remain attractive to large consumers. In the first
nine months of 2023, over 7 GW of capacity were contracted, in line with 2021
and 2022, signalling sustained growth.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Germany 500
EUR/MWh
United Kingdom
Spain 400
Türkiye
300
France
Italy 200
Poland
Netherlands 100
Sweden
0
Denmark
Nov 2021
Nov 2022
Nov 2023
May 2021
Jul 2021
Sep 2021
May 2022
Jul 2022
Sep 2022
May 2023
Jul 2023
Sep 2023
Jan 2021
Mar 2021
Jan 2022
Mar 2022
Jan 2023
Mar 2023
Belgium
0 25 50 75 100
GW
Fixed tariffs and premiums Auctions
Utility-owned Corporate PPAs Wholesale PPA Auction ceiling
index (PV)
Unsolicited bilateral contracts Merchant and GCs
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: GC = Green certificates.
Source: For PPA index, Pexapark (2023), PPA Times.
The second reason for the increase in corporate and merchant activity is that, in
some markets, developers are finding the economics more attractive than
contracts offered in competitive auctions. Low ceiling prices and a lack of inflation-
indexed contracts have been linked to auction undersubscription in several
markets because developers were able to obtain higher prices with corporate
PPAs. For example, solar PV ceiling prices in Germany’s undersubscribed
auctions in 2022 were in the range of EUR 56-59/MWh, at least 26% below the
European average CPPA and one-fifth the average wholesale price. As soon as
the ceiling was raised to EUR 73/MWh in 2023, the auctions returned to full
subscription.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Auction trends
Awarded renewable capacity in competitive auctions in 2023 was the same level
as in 2022. In Asia-Pacific, Europe and Eurasia awarded auction volumes
increased offsetting lower contracted capacity in other regions. From a technology
perspective, the tendered offshore wind capacity dropped by more than one-third
worldwide following the record level achieved in 2022, the largest decline of all
renewable technologies. Awarded onshore wind capacity slightly increased by
2%, and utility-scale solar PV grew by 7%.
Global renewable energy auction results by region (left) and by technology (right)
GW
GW
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: For China, these graphs cover only centrally held competitive auctions; provincial auctions are excluded because
capacity and price data for them are limited. The region Asia-Pacific does not include China.
PAGE | 62
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Average auction prices by region for solar PV (left) and onshore wind (right)
180 180
USD/MWh
160 160
140 140
120 120
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Africa Asia Pacific China Eurasia Europe Latin America Middle East North America World
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Asia Pacific excludes China.
Globally, the overall subscription rate slightly improved in 2023 compared with
2022, with 77% of offered capacity being allocated. Auction success depends on:
Volumes offered: the amount of capacity, energy, or budget made available in the
auction, reflecting the country’s commitment and ambition to develop these
technologies or achieve specific targets.
Policy certainty: encompasses factors such as permitting times and the clarity of
participation requirements for tenders. Clear and predictable policies are crucial
to attract developers.
Price ceiling: the maximum price limit and its relationship to project costs. An
appropriate balance is necessary to ensure the economic feasibility of projects.
Indexation to inflation: reduces risk for developers by accounting for the potential
erosion of project returns over time.
Auction focus: can emphasise capacity, energy output, development of a specific
project, land or seabed allocation for project development, or budget allocation.
Several countries have set targets for renewable energy, and auctions are one
mechanism to achieve these goals. Successful auction designs therefore take into
consideration (in addition to the points raised above) a country’s renewable energy
targets, the specific characteristics of the technologies involved, and the current
macroeconomic environment.
After using a feed-in-tariff programme for more than a decade, China terminated
its subsidies for utility-scale solar PV in 2020. Since then, a feed-in-tariff
programme still exists, but the renewable-specific rates no longer apply; instead,
renewable energy technologies are eligible to receive the coal-fired power price in
each market/province for 15-20 years.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
In India, in 2023 the government unveiled its ambitious objective to conduct annual
auctions for 50 GW of renewable energy capacity. In fact, the country’s tender
volume more than doubled from 2022 to 2023, with almost 90% of the offered
capacity being allocated, reflecting the government’s dedication to fostering solar
PV and wind technology growth. In contrast, other countries across the Asia-
Pacific region displayed the opposite trend. Policy uncertainties were prevalent in
multiple nations, resulting in undersubscription in Japan. Moreover, Chinese
Taipei and the Philippines did not initiate any new renewable energy auctions
during the year.
Meanwhile, two contrasting situations unfolded in Latin America. On the one hand,
the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Chile, did not conduct any capacity
auctions in 2023. Auctions in Brazil are open according to demand from
distribution companies, but in 2023 there was no need to open any public tenders
because higher amounts of demand were met through the free market. In Chile, a
new auction mechanism will be used in January 2024 because of
undersubscription in its 2022 auction. It aims to build a portfolio of projects that
could provide power in non-solar hours, includes new incentives for energy
storage and non-variable renewables in three geographical zones (north, central
and south) and introduces the possibility of transferring system integration costs
from the short-term market.
On the other hand, Argentina conducted its first auction since 2018 and allocated
the entire targeted volume. Ecuador and Guatemala also had successful
renewable energy auctions in 2023.
In the Middle East and North Africa region, several countries initiated competitive
auctions for renewable energy projects in 2023, including solar PV tenders in
Algeria, Israel and Morocco, and the United Arab Emirates increased capacity in
its existing projects. However, no auctions were concluded, with just one contract
awarded in Saudi Arabia, two years after initial bidding in 2021. Instead, most
contracts were signed through unsolicited bilateral agreements. Lengthy
processes to select bidders, determine winners and negotiate contracts were
common, contributing to project implementation delays.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
8 180
EUR/MWh
GW
7 160
6 140
120
5
100
4
80
3
60
2 40
1 20
0 0
2016
2018
2020
2022
2016
2018
2020
2022
2016
2018
2020
2022
2016
2018
2020
2022
2016
2018
2020
2022
2016
2018
2020
2022
2016
2018
2020
2022
2016
2018
2020
2022
Denmark UK Germany France Ireland Lithuania Netherlands Poland
Awareded capacity Awarded price Ceiling price
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Meanwhile, Ireland held its first offshore wind auction in 2023, awarding all the
3 GW on offer at an average winning bid price of EUR 86/MWh – close to half the
tender’s ceiling price. Conversely, the United Kingdom had zero bidders for its
offshore wind CfD auction following a very successful 2022 allocation, with
developers claiming the auction ceiling price was too low relative to cost increases.
In Europe, Germany emerged as the leader for all technologies, setting a record
by awarding 18 GW of renewable energy projects through tenders in 2023, almost
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 65
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
tripling 2022 results. At the beginning of the year, Germany increased its ceiling
prices by 25% for onshore wind and solar PV, and in the auctions held thereafter,
the first doubled and the second increased by almost 80%. The offshore wind
industry had a successful 7-GW tender, with another of 1.8 GW on the horizon.
20
15
10
0
2021
2022
2023
2021
2022
2023
2021
2022
2023
2021
2022
2023
2021
2022
2023
2021
2022
2023
2021
2022
2023
Germany UK France Spain Italy Poland Ireland
In contrast, the United Kingdom awarded only one-third of the previous year’s
capacity. While there was a slight decrease in PV volumes and a modest gain in
onshore wind, the combined total remained on par with 2022 for these two
technologies together. Notably, there was a significant absence of bidders for
offshore wind projects, as they found the maximum bid prices too low, resulting in
no capacity being awarded.
France’s first rounds of auctions in 2023 were also strongly under-awarded, with
winning projects amounting to only 10% of the more than 2 GW offered. There
was no clarity on the financial guarantees required for this procurement round, so
most of the bids were rejected. In addition, key material prices had risen in many
markets and the ceiling price was not announced. During the rest of the year new
tenders were held with various changes, including more clarity on participation
requirements and adjusted project indexation (in previous rounds, indexing started
on the construction date, and with the new scheme it begins from the award date).
These rounds totalling more than 4 GW were much more successful and allocated
all targeted onshore wind and utility-scale solar PV capacity (3.4 GW combined),
as well as more than 40% of the buildings-integrated solar PV capacity
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Spain and Greece had previously announced auctions for 2023, but there have
been no further updates or announcements regarding these auctions, which are
now expected for 2024.
1 600
1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Modules Cells Wafers Polysilicon Main case installations Main case demand Acc. case demand
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Acc. Case = accelerated case.
Sources: IEA analysis based on BNEF; IEA PVPS; SPV Market Research; RTS Corporation; PV InfoLink.
6
The least developed part of the supply chain, creating a production bottleneck.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
However, in 2023 polysilicon production capacity in China will be over three times
the 2021 level, putting the global capacity on par with other PV manufacturing
segments such as wafers, cells and modules. Wafer manufacturing is expected to
be the least developed part of the global supply chain in 2024, although shortages
are highly unlikely because capacity will still significantly outweigh expected
demand.
Remaining investments will be split among the United States, India and ASEAN
countries. Deployment outside of China is propelled mostly by various dedicated
policy measures supporting domestic manufacturing, with the exemption of the
ASEAN region, where Chinese companies invest to geographically diversify their
production.
Solar PV manufacturing capacity and annual installations in North America, India and
Europe, 2022-2028 (left), and China’s share in PV production and installations, 2022-
2028 (right)
80 100%
GW
70
80%
60
50 60%
40
40%
30
20
20%
10
0 0%
2022 2028 2022 2028 2022 2028
North America India Europe
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Sources: IEA analysis based on BNEF; IEA PVPS; SPV Market Research; RTS Corporation; PV InfoLink.
PAGE | 68
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
140
GW
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Sources: IEA analysis based on BNEF; IEA PVPS; SPV Market Research; RTS Corporation; PV InfoLink.
In the European Union in 2022 and 2023 and in the United States in 2023, PV
module imports rose significantly more than PV installations. In the European
Union, high PV capacity growth expectations and the possibility of import
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
restrictions in the short term have led to considerable stockpiling of modules from
China. Distributors are also building up stockpiles in the United States ahead of
June 2024, when circumvention tariffs go into effect.
Due to stockpiling in the United States and the European Union, global demand
for PV modules was higher than expected based on the deployment forecast, by
about 40 GW in 2022 and 80 GW in 2023. This allowed global PV manufacturers
to maintain 75% average capacity utilisation in 2022, even with an almost 200 GW
increase in nameplate manufacturing capacity.
In 2023, however, this additional demand will not to be enough to offset further
supply chain expansion, and the resulting global average utilisation rate likely fell
to about 60%. The ongoing oversupply in the solar PV market has also led to fierce
competition among manufacturers, resulting in a module spot price drop of roughly
50% between January and December 2023.
0.50 100%
USD/W
0.45 90%
0.40 80%
0.35 70%
0.30 60%
0.25 50%
0.20 40%
0.15 30%
0.10 20%
0.05 10%
0.00 0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Average module price (USD/W) World average (%) China average (%) RoW average (%)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: RoW = rest of world.
Sources: IEA analysis based on BNEF; IEA PVPS; SPV Market Research; RTS Corporation; PV InfoLink.
PAGE | 70
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
PV supply cost increases due to import displacement by domestic US, EU and Indian
manufacturing, 2023-2028
6 000 30 000
5 000 25 000
4 000 20 000
3 000 15 000
2 000 10 000
1 000 5 000
0 0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Sources: IEA analysis based on BNEF; IEA PVPS; SPV Market Research; RTS Corporation; PV InfoLink.
However, many governments, including those of the United States, the European
Union, Türkiye and India, have introduced direct subsidies, tax credits, local-
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Thus, the cost to replace Chinese PV imports with more expensive domestic
manufacturing over 2023-2028 is expected to reach USD 12 billion in the United
States, USD 8 billion in European Union and India. These estimates assume
capacity utilisation factors of over 70% for planned manufacturing plants across
these countries, which should allow them to operate efficiently. High investment
costs notwithstanding, local manufacturing benefits a country’s economy in
various ways (e.g. by creating employment, spurring innovation and strengthening
security of supply), which should also be taken into consideration in policy
planning.
PAGE | 72
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
80
80%
60
60%
40
40%
20
0 20%
'22 '25 '22 '25 '22 '25 '22 '25 '22 '25
China APAC North Europe RoW
America 0%
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: OEM = original equipment manufacturer. APAC = Asia Pacific. RoW = rest of world.
Sources: IEA analysis based on BNEF; Wood Mackenzie.
Prices of turbines from Chinese manufacturers first began to diverge from those
of Western competitors in 2020. First, logistical challenges resulting from
lockdowns and other disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic began to
inflate EU and US turbine manufacturer costs. Next, raw material and shipping
cost inflation in 2021-2022 exacerbated the situation, resulting in an average
turbine price increase of 20% per MW between the first halves of 2020 and 2023.
In the same period in China, prices decreased more than 50% thanks to local
supply chain concentration, dynamic market growth, access to attractively priced
raw materials, lower-cost financing and fierce competition among domestic
manufacturers.
While wind turbine manufacturers are developing new, larger turbines at a fast
pace to stay competitive, switching to a new product always entails increased risk,
making companies more cautious about investing. These developments are
making OEMs significantly less eager to expand their manufacturing base.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 73
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
However, the manufacturing outlook should improve in the longer term as future
wind demand growth becomes more certain, including because of the US Inflation
Reduction Act and the newly announced EU Wind Power Action Plan. Announced
by the European Commission in October 2023, the Wind Power Action Plan aims
to accelerate installation growth and support local manufacturers by streamlining
permitting, improving auction design, facilitating access to financing and
expanding workforce training programmes.
However, grid investment has not kept pace with renewable energy development:
outside of China and India, transmission and distribution investments have grown
just 1% per year since 2010. Thus, lower-than-needed grid investments, coupled
with low barriers to queue entry, have led to increases in both connection costs
and project lead times, putting economic pressure on developers and causing
project delays and cancellations.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 74
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Renewable energy capacity in connection queues by project stage (left), and advanced-
stage solar PV and wind projects by region (right)
1 000
GW
548
900
976 800
700
600
500
400
300
200
1 505
100
0
Solar PV Wind
Late stage (GW) Early stage/unlikely (GW)
Under review (GW) US Europe APAC LAM
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: APAC = Asia Pacific. LAM = Latin America. All capacity presented is sourced from publicly available country-level
connection queue information. US data from CAISO; ERCOT; MISO; PJM; NYISO; ISO-NE and SPP interconnections;
Appalachian Electric Cooperative; Arizona Public Service; Black Hills Colorado Electric; Bonneville Power District; Cheyenne
Light, Fuel & Power; City of Los Angeles Department of Water and Power; Duke Carolinas; Duke Florida; Duke Progress; El
Paso Electric; Florida Light and Power; Georgia Transmission Company; Imperial Irrigation District; Idaho Power;
Jacksonville Electric Department; Louisville Gas and Electric Company and Kentucky Utilities Company; NV Energy; Portland
General Electric; Public Service Company of New Mexico; Platte River Power Authority; Santee Cooper; Southern Electric
Corporation of Mississippi; Southern Company; Salt River Project; Tucson Electric Power; Tri-State Generation and
Transmission; Tennessee Valley Authority; and Western Power Administration. Spain data from Red Eléctrica de Espana.
Japan data from Hokkaido Electric Power Network, Grid connection status of renewable energy projects; Tohoku Electric
Power Network, Grid connection status of renewable energy projects; TEPCO Power Grid, Grid connection status of
renewable energy projects; Chubu Electric Power Grid, Grid connection status of renewable energy projects; Hokuriku
Electric Power Transmission & Distribution, Grid connection status of renewable energy projects; Kansai Transmission and
Distribution, Grid connection status of renewable energy projects; Chugoku Electric Power Transmission & Distribution, Grid
connection status of renewable energy projects; Shikoku Electric Power Transmission & Distribution, Grid connection status
of renewable energy projects; Kyushu Electric Power Transmission and Distribution, Grid connection status of renewable
energy projects; Okinawa Electric Power, Grid connection status of renewable energy projects. Brazil data from ANEEL. Italy
data from TERNA. UK data from Ofgem. Germany data from Bundesnetzagentur. Australia data from AEMO. Mexico data
from CENACE. Chile data from CEN. Colombia data from UPME. India data estimated based on CEA transmission buildout
planning. Solar PV values are a mix of AC and DC, depending on the source.
Since 2010, entries into interconnection queues across the United States have
increased by at least 20 times, while investment in transmission and distribution
grids has only doubled. In France, the amount of solar PV and onshore wind
capacity waiting for connection has nearly doubled since 2018, and new
applications for connection in the United Kingdom have risen 80% since 2022.
The increase in connection requests has lengthened project lead times. In the
United States, average queue lead times rose from three years in 2015 to five
years in 2022, while in the United Kingdom 120 GW of projects awaiting connection
have been offered connection in 2030 or later. Meanwhile, France’s backlog of
projects has led to connection delays of 22 months. In Brazil, increased
development of solar PV and onshore wind has increased grid connection queues
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
and project lead-times. Even projects nearing completion can still be subject to
delays: In Australia for instance, commissioning processes can be a year or longer.
United States connection queue growth and grid investment (left), and wind and solar
PV connection cost increases (right)
120
USD/kW
200 70
billion USD
180
100
GW
60
160
140 50 80
120 40
100 60
80 30
40
60 20
40 20
10
20
0 0 0
Study Study Study Study
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: “Study period 1” covers projects with completed interconnection studies from 2000-2016; “study period 2” covers
projects with completed interconnection studies from 2017-2022.
Sources: (left) IEA analysis and IEA (2023), World Energy Investment 2023; (right) IEA analysis based on Lawrence Berkeley
National Lab Interconnection Cost Analysis in the PJM Territory.
In addition to longer wait times, projects are also facing higher grid connection
costs. In the United States, for projects with completed interconnection studies in
the PJM interconnection region, costs for interconnection doubled from
USD 42/kW before 2020 to USD 84/kW after, and these potential costs are even
higher for onshore wind (USD 136/kW) and solar PV (USD 253/kW). In the NYISO
region, costs for interconnection have doubled since 2017, primarily due to the
need for network upgrades.
Long grid connection queues and inadequate investment could slow wind and
solar PV development growth. Investments in grids must double to over
USD 600 billion per year by 2030 to meet climate targets, while queues need to
be reformed to address long lead times and project speculation.
Policies are already being deployed to resolve both concerns. In 2023, Brazil held
auctions for six new transmission lines connecting resource-rich areas to demand
centres, while to shorten connection queue backlogs in the United States, the
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 76
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
The IEA categorises VRE integration into six phases based on the challenges
power systems face with increasing VRE shares. Currently, most power systems
fall into Phase 1, wherein VRE has no significant impact at the system level.
However, an increasing number of regions are entering higher phases, and
Denmark has reached Phase 5, with growing amounts of VRE surplus.
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Phase 5 - Growing amounts of VRE surplus (day or more) Phase 4 - VRE meets almost all demand in some periods
Phase 3 - VRE determines the operation pattern of the system Phase 2 - Minor to moderate impact on system operation
Phase 1 - No relevant impact on system
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Capacity additions refer to net additions.
By 2028, there will be more countries with VRE shares of 5-15% than below 5%
for the first time. As VRE starts to contribute at these higher shares, it is likely that
many of these countries will reach the phase-2 stage and begin to experience
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 77
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
In the next five years, around 30 countries are forecast to have VRE penetration
of 15-30%, not only in Europe and the United States but also in large emerging
economies, including China, Brazil, India and Türkiye. They will likely begin to
experience greater net load variability and changes in power flow patterns, with
VRE increasingly determining how the system operates. These countries may also
be subject to subregional challenges depending on their interconnection
capacities with other grid areas. For instance, accelerating wind and solar PV
deployment in China’s Northern and Northeastern regions could result in rising
curtailment through 2028 – despite recent investments in grid infrastructure – due
to the high concentration of VRE capacity in these grid areas.
100
Likely Phase 1
Number of countries
90
80
Likely Phase 2 and 3
70 2018
60
50
2023
40
30 Likely Phase 4 2028
20 Likely Phase 5 & 6
10
0
0%-5%
5%-10%
10%-15%
15%-20%
20%-30%
30%-40%
40%-50%
50%-70%
70%-100%
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Capacity additions refer to net additions.
PAGE | 78
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Shares of potential variable electricity generation for selected countries above global
average in 2028
World
Israel
USA
Turkey
China
Sweden
Italy 2018
Finland
Brazil
Poland 2018-23
Australia
Belgium
Greece
Netherlands 2023-28
UK
Spain
Ireland
Uk
Chile
Germany
Denmark
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
% of variable renewables in total generation
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Capacity additions refer to net additions.
Stationary batteries in Europe, the United States and Australia can tap into
balancing markets through arbitrage opportunities at peak hours. Over the
forecast period, rising VRE deployment is expected to accelerate the installation
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
of storage systems, with over 400 GW to be deployed between 2023 and 2028.
China, the United States, the European Union and India lead this expansion.
Europe
Long-term storage
2023-28
North America
Short-term storage
China
Long-term storage
2017-22
Asia Pacific
Short-term storage
Latin America
Long-term storage
2011-15
MENA
Short-term storage
Others
GW
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: MENA = Middle East and North Africa. Short-term storage refers to stationary batteries providing 1-4 hours of storage.
Long-term storage includes pumped-storage hydropower and concentrated solar plants with long-term storage capabilities.
Source: IEA (2023), World Energy Outlook 2023.
While existing long-term storage capabilities in Europe, the United States and
Japan will contribute to system integration, long-term storage needs are
increasing rapidly, so investment decisions must be made today for plants that will
be required 6-10 years from now. While long-term storage is considered a
strategic grid asset for electricity security in an increasing number of countries,
pumped-storage hydropower deployment is expected to take place mostly in
China, thanks to strong and consistent public support facilitating investment. .
PAGE | 80
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
of wind and solar PV generation going unused remains relatively low, typically
ranging from 1.5% to 4% in most major renewable energy markets.
Naturally, curtailment rates are higher in regions that need substantial grid
infrastructure expansion to connect renewable energy installations to consumption
centres. Effective system planning is thus crucial for well-integrated wind and solar
PV growth and should encompass considerations such as the regional distribution
of generation and the development of policies to encourage system flexibility.
Additionally, power markets must evolve beyond the traditional design and
regulation models to create a more accommodating environment for higher
renewable energy integration.
VRE generation shares and technical curtailment rates for selected counties
80% 16%
70% 14%
VRE generation share (%)
60% 12%
40% 8%
30% 6%
20% 4%
10% 2%
0% 0%
2017
2019
2021
2023
2028
2017
2019
2021
2023
2028
2017
2019
2021
2023
2028
2017
2019
2021
2023
2028
2017
2019
2021
2023
2028
2017
2019
2021
2023
2028
2017
2019
2021
2023
2028
2017
2019
2021
2023
2028
Australia Chile China Germany Ireland Italy Spain UK
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Data points represent officially reported curtailed or constrained energy and combine various schemes, depending on
the country. VRE refers to solar PV and wind unless otherwise specified. Italy includes only wind. Spain includes PV, wind,
CSP and biomass technologies. The United Kingdom includes only wind. “Technical curtailment” refers to the dispatch-down
of renewable energy for network or system reasons. Dispatched-down energy due to economic or market conditions is not
included.
Sources: IEA analysis based on Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), Quarterly Energy Dynamics (multiple releases);
Coordinador Eléctrico Nacional de Chile (CEN), Reducciones de energía eólica y solar en el SEN (multiple releases);
National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), China Energy Datasheet 2000-2021; Bundesnetzagentur, Monitoring Report
2022; Gestore Servizi Energetici (GSE), Rapporto attivita 2021; EirGrid, Renewable Dispatch-Down (Constraint and
Curtailment) reports (multiple releases); Hokkaido Electric Power Network, area supply and demand data (multiple releases);
Tohoku Electric Power Network, area supply and demand data (multiple releases); TEPCO Power Grid, area supply and
demand data (multiple releases); Chubu Electric Power Grid, area supply and demand data (multiple releases); Hokuriku
Electric Power Transmission & Distribution, area supply and demand data (multiple releases); Kansai Transmission and
Distribution, area supply and demand data (multiple releases); Chugoku Electric Power Transmission & Distribution, area
supply and demand data (multiple releases); Shikoku Electric Power Transmission & Distribution, area supply and demand
data (multiple releases); Kyushu Electric Power Transmission and Distribution, area supply and demand data (multiple
releases); Okinawa Electric Power, area supply and demand data (multiple releases; Red Eléctrica de España (REE), I3DIA
(multiple releases).
PAGE | 81
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Hourly generation profiles are a critical factor, especially in the absence of storage,
as energy production can sometimes surpass demand. From the perspective of
transmission system operators (TSOs), a system’s load profile is key and can be
influenced by a high penetration of distributed generation. Distributed PV in
particular has the potential to reduce demand during specific hours, thereby
intensifying the mismatch between generation and demand.
18% 18%
16% 16% 16%
14% 14% 14%
12% 12% 12%
10% 10% 10%
8% 8% 8%
6% 6% 6%
4% 4% 4%
2% 2% 2%
0% 0% 0%
2011 2015 2019 2023 2011 2015 2019 2023 2011 2015 2019 2023
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes : VRE = variable renewable energy. The 2023 curtailment rate for Chile in 2023 comprises the period from January to
September. Data points represent officially reported curtailed or constrained energy and combine various schemes,
depending on the country. VRE refers to solar PV and wind unless otherwise specified. “Technical curtailment” refers to the
dispatch-down of renewable energy for network or system reasons. Dispatched-down energy due to economic or market
conditions is not included.
Sources: IEA analysis based on Coordinador Eléctrico Nacional de Chile (CEN), Reducciones de energía eólica y solar
en el SEN (multiple releases); National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), China Energy Datasheet 2000-2021;
Bundesnetzagentur, Monitoring Report 2022.
Over the past ten years, wind energy has consistently constituted the largest
portion of curtailed VRE in China, accounting for 75-85% of total annual
curtailment. However, the curtailment rate for wind peaked at 17% in 2016 and it
has fallen steadily since then to around 3% in 2022. Solar PV expansion in China
has been rapid and is anticipated to continue. Its curtailment rates have been
lower than for wind-based generation, reaching a peak of 11% and subsequently
decreasing to less than 2%.
PAGE | 82
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
In Germany, VRE curtailment rose at the beginning of the last decade. While major
grid investment decisions to strengthen the north-south corridor are still pending,
Germany has implemented smaller-scale grid expansions that have stabilised the
trend from 2015. Wind is the most curtailed energy source, with onshore wind
accounting for 60% of curtailed energy, while solar PV makes up less than 5%
annually.
Onshore wind curtailment has been trending downwards since 2020, thanks to
network expansion projects in Schleswig-Holstein. However, offshore wind
curtailment has had both absolute increases, corresponding to new commissioned
capacity, and a rise in curtailment rates from negligible in 2015 to 8% in 2021, with
further increases expected for 2023. Meanwhile, repercussions of onshore wind
bottlenecks in northwestern Germany are also being felt in the offshore wind
sector, reflecting the interconnectedness of renewable energy challenges.
In Chile, high curtailment rates result from a rapid increase in VRE generation, a
geographical mismatch between renewable generation and energy demand, and
insufficient deployment of the transmission grid to keep pace with these
developments. The merger of Chile’s central and northern electricity systems in
2017 initially reduced curtailment from 14% to 2%, but this positive trend was not
sustained, causing VRE curtailment to rise to 6% in 2022. Solar PV plants were
primarily affected, with their curtailment reaching 13% in October 2022 and 14%
in November, coinciding with peak solar irradiation.
Anticipating record levels, Chile’s energy curtailment in the first three quarters of
2023 already matched the total for 2022. In the last quarter, which registered the
highest solar radiation and completion of the year’s capacity additions, curtailment
was equivalent to almost half of total curtailed generation in 2022. Comparing the
first three quarters of 2023 with the same period in 2022, wind curtailment had
increased 20%, with an average monthly curtailment rate of 5% – one point higher
than in 2022. Meanwhile, solar PV generation was curtailed at an even higher rate,
with 1 TWh dispatched down in the first three quarters of 2023, 2.4 times the
amount in the same period in 2022. Solar PV curtailment rates also rose to a 8%
monthly average in this period of 2023, peaking at 18% in September 2023.
Financial performance
PAGE | 83
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the renewable energy industry
(specifically solar, wind and renewable energy IPPs) had been outperforming in
most major market indices, and the broader energy sector in equity markets.
However, during the first half of 2020, wind turbine and solar PV equipment
manufacturers experienced negative EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes,
depreciation, and amortisation) due to temporary revenue declines caused by the
pandemic’s impact. Remarkably, renewable energy companies recovered rapidly
from the Covid-19 crisis and demonstrated financial resilience to the end of 2022.
Indexed stock market prices for global indices and traded energy companies, 2020-
2023
Global indices Industry indices
2.5 5
Weighted average industry stock index
2 4
1.5 3
1 2
0.5 1
0 0
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Oct-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-23
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Apr-23
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Oct-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-23
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Apr-23
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: RE IPP = renewable energy independent power producer.
Solar companies (17): Jinko Solar Holding Co Ltd; SunPower; First Solar Inc; Canadian Solar Inc; Xinyi Solar; Trina Solar;
JA Solar; LONGi Green Energy Technology; GCLSI; Risen Energy; Enphase Energy; Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente;
Daqo New Energy Corp; SolarEdge Technologies; Sunrun Inc; Vivint Solar; SMA Solar Technology.
Wind (10): Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy; Acciona; Vestas Wind Systems; Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology
Co Ltd; Suzlon Energy Ltd; China Longyuan Power Group Corp Ltd; Boralex; TransAlta Renewables Inc; Nordex SE; TPI
Composites.
RE IPPs (15): NextEra Energy Inc; Orsted; MVV Energie; Innergex Renewable Energy; Brookfield Renewable Energy
Partners LP; Adani Green Energy Ltd; Neoen SA; CPFL Energia; Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp; ERG SpA; Falck
Renewables; Terna Energy SA; BCPG PCL; Infigen Energy; Enlight Renewable Energy Ltd.
Utilities (16) : Enel SpA ; Iberdrola SA ; Electricite de France SA ; E.ON SE ; EDP ; Engie ; SSE PLC ; Drax Group PLC ;
ACS
Actividades de 84onstrucción y Servicios; Tata Power; RWE AG; AES Corporation; Duke Energy Corporation; Sempra
Energy; National Grid PLC; Xcel Energy Inc.
Source: IEA analysis based on Bloomberg LP (2023), Markets: Stocks (database).
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
During the second half of 2022, the IEA’s solar PV manufacturers and independent
renewable energy developers (RE IPP) index was outperforming major indices.
However, since the beginning of 2023, global equity markets have been picking
up while the opposite holds true for the renewable energy industry. For instance,
solar PV manufacturing companies lost more than half of their market value from
January to October 2023, while the stock market value of RE IPPs and wind
industry declined by over 25%. Wind and RE IPP indexes rebounded in
November, however still remained 5-10% below the January levels.
revenues from electricity prices. This also led many companies in this energy
subsector to secure higher profits in 2022 using hedging strategies and long-term
contracts.
In contrast, in 2023 the same companies faced challenges such as a higher cost
of debt, grid infrastructure inadequacy and integration difficulties, and longer lead
times. For these reasons, investors are increasingly limiting investments to mainly
low-risk projects that have secured either permitting or an interconnection
agreement. These overall conservative investor sentiments, high interest rates
and higher costs have caused sharp drops in the indices for RE IPPs. As for
utilities included in our categorisation, 2023 was a steady year following the trend
prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.
PAGE | 85
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Weighted average net margins of renewable energy companies, large utilities and oil
majors, 2022 and 2023 (Q1, Q2 and Q3)
30%
Utilities
Weighted average net margin
20%
Oil majors
10%
Polysilicon
0%
Solar PV integrated
-10%
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Wind manufg. = wind equipment manufacturing companies.
Source: IEA analysis based on companies’ annual and quarterly financial reports
As for the polysilicon industry, rising PV demand and limited polysilicon capacity
availability raised polysilicon prices significantly to USD 40/kg in November 2022,
which benefited both manufacturers and producers by increasing their net
margins, as their costs did not rise proportionally. This trend was transitory,
however, as global polysilicon capacity almost doubled in 2023 (to 800 GW) and
its price plummeted to USD 10/kg. Historically, such imbalances between supply
and demand have led to negative margins, signs of which were evident in
Q3 2023. This has caused many Chinese companies to either stall their plans for
new factories or even suspend operations due to losses from high production
costs.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 86
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
PAGE | 87
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
While good solar and wind resources, land availability and location along existing
shipping routes strengthen the business case for hydrogen production in these
countries, government support is also crucial to develop projects in these markets.
For example, Saudi Arabia’s 2-GW Neom electrolyser project is partially owned
by the state and has received funding from the National Development Fund and
Saudi Industrial Development Fund. In Oman, the government is offering land
leases at a reduced cost through auctions, while Australia is providing more than
AUS 500 million in grants to develop hydrogen hubs.
PAGE | 88
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
GW
65%
United States
EU 9% Rest 20 60%
11% Saudi Arabia 50%
of world
13% 46%
4%
15 45%
30%
Potential 10 25% 30%
export 19%
countries Australia
21% 3% 5 15%
Oman
3% 0 0%
United Arab 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
China
Emirates
55% Rest US EU Potential China Share of
2%
of world export non-China (%)
countries right axis
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: The forecast for renewable capacity dedicated for hydrogen production uses a similar method as the forecast for
renewable capacity dedicated for power. The forecast uses the IEA Hydrogen Projects Database as a primary input and
estimates a commissioning date of electrolyser projects depending on the stage of development and the overall market
environment. In addition, an assessment of the government’s support policies for renewable hydrogen are also used as input
to the forecast. An assumption for the installed renewable capacity needed for the electrolyser is made depending on whether
the final product is hydrogen or ammonia.
Global annual growth is initially driven by China, which accounts for more than
70% of net additions between 2023 and 2024. Early electrolyser deployment in
this country will be mostly from state-owned enterprises developing projects to
meet provincial and national hydrogen production targets, estimated to trigger
2 GW of renewable electricity capacity growth in 2023 and 4 GW in 2024. While
the pace of annual growth accelerates to over 6 GW by 2028, it is constrained by
the risk of uncertainty over hydrogen demand. Despite this uncertainty, however,
China is expected to remain the single largest market over the forecast period,
even though its share relative to the rest of the world decreases by 2028 as
projects from other markets begin to be commissioned.
PAGE | 89
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
produce hydrogen with offshore wind energy, commissioning would not occur until
after 2028 due to Europe’s long project development lead times.
25
15
20
15 10
10
5
5
0 0
China MENA Europe North Asia- Rest China Europe Asia- MENA Latin North Rest
America Pacific of Pacific America America of
world world
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: MENA = Middle East and North Africa.
While almost all regions are still expected to increase the amount of renewable
energy capacity dedicated to hydrogen production by 2028, the pace of growth is
now less optimistic than in Renewables 2022. In fact, this year’s forecast is 35%
lower than in 2022 due to downwards revisions for all regions except China. The
main reason is the slow pace of bringing planned projects to financial close due to
a lack of off-takers and the impact of inflation on production costs. Overall, the
amount of renewable energy capacity for hydrogen production growth represents
only an estimated 7% of announced project capacity.
According to the IEA Hydrogen Projects Database, there are over 360 GW of
electrolyser projects using dedicated to renewable electricity capacity with
announced start dates before 2030 in the development pipeline at various stages.
These range from early-stage announcements, to feasibility assessments, to later
stages wherein the project has reached financial close or is under construction.
However at the time of writing, only 3% (12 GW) of them had reached financial
close or started construction, a smaller amount than expected in our Renewables
2022 forecast.
PAGE | 90
Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
development of project pipelines in Chile and Brazil. The forecast is also less
optimistic for Asia-Pacific, mostly due to uncertainty in Australia over the future of
stalled projects. One project’s environmental permit had lapsed before it reached
financial close, and plans for projects in Bell Bay have been put on hold due to
high water and transmission congestion.
China is the only market where the pace of growth is likely to come within reach
of announced goals. In the main case, renewable energy capacity for hydrogen in
China exceeds 24 GW by 2028, far above the estimated 1 GW needed to produce
the central government’s announced target of 100 000-200 000 tonnes/year of
renewable hydrogen. The main case forecast is in line with China’s currently
announced provincial ambitions for 2025 and 2030, wherein a majority of growth
comes from state-owned enterprises building projects to meet provincial-level
targets and increase system flexibility.
Another major challenge is the lack of demand for hydrogen and hydrogen-based
fuels because of the cost barrier. Renewable hydrogen costs more than unabated
fossil fuels-based production currently meeting demand in existing uses (i.e.
ammonia production and refining), and other affordable technologies are available
for new uses (i.e. other industrial and transport uses). Therefore, government
support is still needed to make renewable hydrogen and its derivatives appealing
to end users. However, much of the existing policy support is focused on providing
support to developers who supply hydrogen rather than the consumers.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Global announced electrolyser projects with 2030 commissioning dates (left), and
renewable capacity dedicated to hydrogen production in the main and accelerated
cases (2023-2028) vs amounts needed to meet 2030 national targets for hydrogen and
electrolysers (right)
Electrolyser capacity (GW)
200
80
160
60
120
40
80
40 20
0 0
Concept Feasibility Construction/ EU United India Chile South Japan UAE OmanNamibiaChina
FID States Africa
China Europe & Eurasia
North America Latin America Acc. case Main case Estimate range
Asia-Pacific Middle East & Africa for target
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: FID = final investment decision. UAE = United Arab Emirates. For left graph, only projects with an announced start
year of 2030 or earlier are included. For right graph, the minimum range of renewable capacity needed for national
electrolyser targets was calculated assuming a 1:1 sizing ratio between electrolyser capacity and renewable technology,
and the maximum assumed an oversizing ratio of 1:2.5. National targets given in Mt H2/year were converted to an
electrolyser equivalent using production capacity assumptions for the different electrolyser technologies. For the minimum
electrolyser capacity range, assumed production capacity is based on solid oxide electrolysis cells (0.0038
MW/nm³ H₂/hour) and for maximum electrolyser capacity it is based on proton exchange membrane electrolysis (0.0052
MW/nm³ H₂/hour). For China, the national 2025 target is considered the lower bound for the 2030 target range, and the
sum of announced provincial targets is the upper bound. For the announced provinces without 2030 targets, 2025 targets
were assumed as a proxy for the purposes of benchmarking in this exercise.
Sources: (left) IEA (2023), Hydrogen Production and Infrastructure Projects (database); (right) IEA analysis based on
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2023), Hydrogen Strategy Tracker, accessed October 2023, and EnergyIceberg (2023),
Hydrogen Policy Navigator.
Also supporting EU accelerated case growth is the new mandatory target for non-
renewable fuels of non-biological origin in industry and transport. In July 2023, the
European Union passed the world’s first end-use mandatory target for hydrogen:
42% of hydrogen used must be made from renewable sources by 2030 (complying
with certain additional criteria on additionality, geographical correlation and
temporal correlation) and at least 1% of transport fuel. However, uncertainties still
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 1. Electricity
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
surround the potential for this regulation to spur new renewable capacity growth
before 2028, as each Member State is at liberty to decide which policy
instrument(s) it will employ (e.g. mandates, incentives, etc.).
In the United States, faster growth could happen if tax incentives under the IRA
make renewable hydrogen more economically attractive than its alternatives for
existing uses, and in Korea, additional projects could come online from its new
auctions for clean-hydrogen electricity.
In total, the accelerated case forecasts that renewable energy capacity dedicated
to hydrogen could reach 85 GW – almost twice as much as in the main case – if
government support can help bring planned projects to financial close. However,
this pace is still insufficient to achieve the growth needed to meet national 2030
low-emission hydrogen targets. More effort will be required to ensure that
adequate infrastructure to store and transport hydrogen is in place, to clarify
regulatory uncertainty, and to boost investment in R&D to improve technologies
for new and existing uses.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Most new biofuel demand comes from emerging economies, especially Brazil,
Indonesia and India. All three countries have robust biofuel policies, rising
transport fuel demand and abundant feedstock potential. Ethanol and biodiesel
use expand the most in these regions. Although advanced economies including
the European Union, the United States, Canada and Japan are also strengthening
their transport policies, volume growth is constrained by factors such as rising
electric vehicle adoption, vehicle efficiency improvements, high biofuel costs and
technical limitations. Renewable diesel and biojet fuel are the primary growth
segments in these regions.
In the accelerated case, demand growth is nearly triple the main case over the
forecast as existing policies are strengthened and biofuel demand expands in new
markets (see Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario tracking section in this
chapter).
Five-year biofuel demand growth by fuel (left) and economy type (right), main case,
2011-2028
40 30
Demand (billion litres per year)
Demand (billion litres per year)
35 25
30 20
25
15
20
10
15
5
10
5 0
Adv. Emer. Adv. Emer. Adv. Emer.
0 2011-16 2017-22 2023-28
2011-16 2017-22 2023-28
Ethanol Biodiesel Brazil Indonesia India Other emerging
Renewable diesel Biojet fuel United States Europe Other advanced
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Adv. = advanced economies. Emer. = emerging economies.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Renewable diesel and biojet fuel consumption expand 18 billion litres over the
forecast period, with the United States and Europe accounting for near 80% of this
increase. In the United States, key drivers include the Inflation Reduction Act
(IRA), state-level low-carbon fuel standards, and Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)
blending obligations. The United States also launched a Sustainable Aviation Fuel
Grand Challenge in 2021, targeting 11 billion litres of new sustainable aviation fuel
(SAF) production by 2030. While the goal is not binding, it has been accompanied
by funding, research and co-ordination efforts.
In Europe, the European Union has approved its latest Renewable Energy
Directive (RED III), which aims to double renewable energy shares by 2030.
Member states are required to align their domestic policies by 2025 with either a
29% renewable energy target or a 14.5% GHG emissions reduction target.
However, we forecast only modest growth in biofuel demand because of the
directive’s double-counting provision, declining transport fuel demand and
increases in electric vehicle and renewable electricity shares, which can count
towards the target.
Meanwhile, ethanol and biodiesel expand by 13% over the forecast period, with
growth in emerging economies offsetting declines in advanced ones. While Brazil
aims to increase maximum ethanol blending to 30% from 27.5% in 2023 in addition
to using pure ethanol in flex-fuel vehicles, India supports ethanol expansion
through a blending target of 20% by 2025/26, guaranteed ethanol blending and
financial support for new facilities.
Although European ethanol demand rises slightly over the forecast period, it is
more than offset by declines in the United States, where gasoline use is expected
to shrink and there has been little increase in ethanol blending shares above 10%.
PAGE | 95
Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Five-year biofuel demand growth (left) and road transport demand growth (right) in
emerging economies, main case, 2023-2028
Biofuel demand Road transport fuel demand
40 40 25%
Demand (billion litres per year)
25 25 15%
20 20
15 10%
15
10
10 5%
5
5
0 0%
0 Gasoline Diesel pool
Ethanol Biodiesel Biojet fuel Ethanol Biodiesel Biojet fuel pool
2017 to 2022 2023 to 2028 2023 to 2028
Brazil Indonesia India Malaysia Other emerging Percent growth
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
As demand for transport fuels surges, Brazil, Indonesia, India and Malaysia will
continue to rely on biofuels to help reduce oil import dependence. Across all four
countries, the gasoline pool (gasoline and ethanol) is expected to expand more
than 15% and the diesel pool (diesel and biodiesel) by nearly 20% over the
forecast period. While these countries will rely on imports to differing degrees to
satisfy rising demand (for instance, India relies near 90% on crude imports), all
four are strengthening existing mandates. Globally, transport fuel demand
expands only 2% by 2028.
Biofuels are, however, more expensive in all four countries, with average prices
15-80% higher than for fossil fuels on an energy basis over the last 10 years. Thus,
direct fuel subsidies accompany demand targets in Indonesia, Malaysia and India
to reduce the cost impact for private consumers and companies.
Indonesia has placed a levy on palm oil exports to cover the cost difference
between palm oil-based biodiesel and diesel, and Malaysia uses a similar
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
approach, but India has set guaranteed prices for individual ethanol feedstocks
and updates them regularly to reflect changing prices and has also modified its
ethanol tax rates. In Brazil, ethanol blending of up to 27.5% (climbing to 30% over
the forecast period) has been mandated, and the country also offers lower taxation
on ethanol and counts it towards carbon reduction credits. These initiatives help
keep ethanol prices competitive, although sugar, corn and gasoline prices also
play a role. Historically, all four countries have also subsidised gasoline and diesel
fuels.
Moreover, all four countries have ample domestic feedstocks, although the scale
of growth will command increasing shares. While biodiesel demand already
claimed 19% of palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia in 2022, in our main
case this share climbs to 30%, even with rising palm oil production. In Brazil, the
share of ethanol production derived from sugarcane is expected to remain near
50%, despite significant growth. Similarly, in India in the main case, ethanol
demand as a share of sugarcane production expands to 7% by 2028 from 5% in
2022. Existing and planned biofuel production capacity in all four countries is
sufficient to support domestic demand.
Both biofuels and renewable electricity help meet the targets of domestic transport
policies such as low-carbon fuel standards in the United States and the RED in
the European Union. Historically, biofuels have reduced oil demand the most, but
during the forecast period, electric vehicles claim a larger share of reductions in
the gasoline segment. Nevertheless, biofuels continue to be the dominant option
for reducing oil demand in the diesel and jet fuel segments.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Biofuels and renewable electricity in transport (left) and avoided oil demand (right),
main case, 2022-2028
6.0 2.5
Renewable energy (EJ)
0.0 0.0
Biofuels R-elec Biofuels R-elec 2022 2028 2022 2028 2022 2028
2022 2028 Gasoline Diesel Jet fuel
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: (Right) R-elec = renewable electricity used by electric vehicles. Electric vehicle renewable electricity use is consistent
with our main case renewable electricity forecast. Avoided oil demand for electric vehicles accounts for the higher energy
efficiency of electric vehicles compared with combustion vehicles. Electricity use for cars, trucks, vans and buses is included,
but rail transport is not. (Left) RoW = rest of world. Mboe/d = million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Oil displacement
estimates exclude biofuel use in each region and assume electric vehicles substitute for vehicles in the same class (i.e. an
electric SUV replaces an equivalent internal combustion vehicle or hybrid). The full methodology is available in the Global
EV Outlook.
Source: IEA (2023), Global EV Outlook 2023.
In the United States, Europe and China, renewable electricity use in transport is
forecast to expand eightfold over the forecast period, albeit from a small base. In
total, electric vehicles using renewable electricity will avoid 1.3 mboe/d of oil
consumption in 2028 in these regions, about the same as biofuels. In the United
States and Europe, large-scale electric vehicle growth contributes to declining
gasoline demand over the forecast period.
In much of the rest of the world, however, biofuels remain the primary
decarbonisation option, accounting for near 90% of avoided oil demand in 2028.
In Brazil, India and Indonesia, electric vehicles and efficiency improvements pose
little threat to liquid fuel demand, given the high growth prospects for overall
transport demand. These regions also mandate biofuel shares, avoiding direct
competition with electric vehicles.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Nevertheless, Brazil, Indonesia and India all have electric vehicle plans in place.
Indonesia launched purchase incentives in 2023, Brazil provides tax exemptions
for electric vehicle imports and India has a mixture of national and state-level
purchase and manufacturing incentives. These policies will help expand electric
vehicle sales but have little impact on oil demand over the forecast period, as total
vehicle stock will remain primarily combustion vehicles.
The United States, Europe and Japan are at the forefront of this growth, propelled
by strong policy support. Ongoing policy discussions in Brazil, India, Indonesia,
Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia and the United Kingdom, coupled
with significant capacity potential in the United States, could boost demand to
15 billion litres, or to 3.5% of global jet fuel demand in 2028 in our accelerated
case. However, realising this growth will hinge on policy implementation and
feedstock diversification.
Biojet fuel five-year growth in demand and capacity additions (left) and feedstocks
(right), main and accelerated cases, 2023-2028
20 20
Billion litres per year
Billion litres per year
15 15
10
10
5
5
0
Demand Capacity Demand Capacity 0
Main case Accelerated
Main case Accelerated case
case
North America Europe APAC Latin America RoW Vegetable oils Residue FOG Ethanol Other
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: APAC = Asia-Pacific region. RoW = rest of world. FOG = fats, oils and grease. Capacity potential is based on project
announcements. Main case potential capacity includes projects under construction, having obtained a final investment
decision or highly likely to be constructed. The accelerated case includes all proposed projects that have a planned production
date. “Vegetable oils” indicates soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil and corn oil; “Residue FOG” includes used cooking oil,
animal fats and palm oil mill effluent; and “Other” covers wood wastes, municipal solid waste and unknown feedstocks.
Sources: Capacity estimates adapted from Argus and S&P data, and company announcements.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
In the main case, incentives such as IRA credits, the Renewable Fuel Standard’s
Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), and Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)
credits help raise US biojet fuel demand to nearly 2 billion litres by 2028. These
credits, potentially worth near USD 1/litre, 1 narrow the price gap with fossil jet fuel.
Meanwhile, EU ReFuelEU Aviation legislation, which sets blending obligations of
2% for 2025 and 6% for 2030, is forecast to increase the biojet fuel share to 4%
of Europe’s jet fuel demand by 2028. In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan is the main
source of demand growth with its goal of 10% sustainable aviation fuel by 2030.
1
Assuming a GHG intensity of 18 gCO2/MJ for biojet fuel, an LCFS credit price of USD 60/tonne, a D4 RIN price of
USD 1/gallon and an IRA SAF tax credit of USD 0.41/litre.
2
Low-emissions e-fuels are fuels obtained from electrolytic hydrogen. Combining hydrogen with either nitrogen or CO₂
produces different fuel products such as e-kerosene, e-gasoline, e-diesel, e-methanol and e-ammonia. E-kerosene, e-
gasoline and e-diesel can be blended with fossil fuels relatively easily, but using e-ammonia and e-methanol for transport
fuel requires investments to adapt distribution infrastructure and end-use equipment.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
E-fuel demand and planned capacity additions to 2030 (left) and levelised cost ranges
(right)
3.0 90 140
Billion litres per year
Billion litres per year
Cost (USD/GJ)
Fossil fuels
80
2.5 120
70
2.0 60 100 Biofuels
50
1.5 80
40
1.0 30 60 E-fuels
20
0.5 40
10
0.0 0 Cost decline
20
Demand Planned Demand Planned Planned potential to
capacity capacity capacity 0 2030
(right
axis)
Aviation and road Marine
Demand Operational FID/construction
Feasibility Early stage
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: FID = final investment decision. Aviation and road demand estimates are based on offtake agreements for e-fuels and
EU policy commitments to 2030. Marine demand estimates are based on offtake agreements for e-ammonia and e-methanol
to 2030. Planned capacity is based on the IEA Hydrogen Project Database. Planned marine capacity includes methanol and
ammonia specifically for transportation purposes. Fuel cost estimates are based on the levelised cost of production for e-
fuels and biofuels. Fossil fuel prices are market averages.
Sources: For SAF offtake agreements and global hydrogen offtake agreements for green ammonia: Argus (2023), The Role
of Low-Emissions e-fuels in Decarbonising Transport.
In the aviation sector, e-fuel use is promoted primarily by the RefuelEU Aviation
programme (which requires an e-kerosene minimum of 0.7% and an average of
1.2% by 2030/31), RED III (a 1% sub-target for e-fuels by 2030) and Germany’s
SAF mandate (2% e-kerosene fuel by 2030). There is also some growth in the
road transport market to meet the RED III commitment, but it would likely be met
with e-gasoline produced as a byproduct during e-kerosene production.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
marine fuels come from net zero or nearly net zero sources by 2030, although new
policies to support this target are not expected until 2027. The European Union
has also approved ReFuelEU Maritime legislation, but e-fuel requirements are not
reflected in this analysis because they will not be introduced until 2034.
In addition, while the United States has no e-fuel mandate, the combined value of
IRA credits for hydrogen, SAF and carbon capture, in addition to RFS credits and
state-level LCFS credits, could reach USD 80/EJ depending on credit market
prices. However, these incentives have not yet secured firm project commitments
for e-kerosene fuel.
Forecast demand thus far exceeds firm project commitments to 2030. However,
since EU e-fuel mandates were just introduced in 2023, as were most offtake
agreements, we assume there will be more final investment decisions in upcoming
years. For aviation, the almost 2.5 billion litres of planned capacity additions would
directly supply e-kerosene to meet mandates and offtake agreements. However,
e-ammonia, which can be used in shipping, can also serve agricultural markets
and be used in power generation applications. Having access to multiple potential
markets helps reduce investment risks for this fuel and explains why there are
more firm and planned e-ammonia project commitments.
In the accelerated case, compound annual growth could reach over 8% over the
forecast period, more than double historical rates. Nearly half of this additional
growth, 29 billion litres of new demand, results from strengthened policies in
existing markets such as the United States, Europe and India (for ethanol), and
an additional 21 billion litres comes from new markets (biodiesel in India and
ethanol in Indonesia). Biojet fuel offers a third growth avenue, expanding to cover
nearly 3.5% of global aviation fuels – up from 1% in the main case. Each pillar
faces its own set of challenges, however.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Forecast vs Net Zero Scenario demand growth, 2017-2030 (left) and additional demand
growth in the accelerated case, 2023-2028 (right)
300 30
Demand (billion litres per year)
200 20
150 15
10
100
5
50
0
0 Ethanol Biodiesel Renewable Biojet fuel
2017-2022 2023-2028 2023-2028 2023-2030 diesel
United States Europe India Brazil
Historical Main case Accelerated case NZE Indonesia China Other
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: NZE = IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.
Source: IEA (2023), Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5°C Goal in Reach.
In the United States, Europe and India, expanding supply depends in part on
strengthening existing policies, promoting high-ethanol blends and diversifying
feedstock supplies. In the accelerated case, the European Union aims for a
stronger transport target of 32% by 2030, up from 29% in the main case. As most
new growth is expected to come from non-food/-feed crops, new feedstock
supplies and processing technologies will be needed.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
marginal land. In Africa as well, eight countries have biofuel blending targets at
various levels of development, which could raise the continent’s demand more
than 2 billion litres by 2028.
Biojet fuel use expands considerably in the accelerated case, climbing to 3.5% of
global aviation demand by 2028. Achieving this market share hinges primarily on
the United States – but also Europe and Japan – meeting their biojet fuel goals.
These regions will also need to employ new feedstock sources (e.g. vegetable oils
grown on marginal land) and processing technologies (such as alcohol-to-jet
conversion) to avoid feedstock limitations.
The accelerated case also includes biojet fuel development in Brazil, Indonesia,
China and India, assuming that existing policy plans are implemented. Initial
growth in Brazilian projects would likely focus on soybean oil and in Indonesia on
palm oil, while India and China would need to rely on advanced fuels. By 2028,
2% biojet fuel blending would result in airline ticket price increases of nearly 1.5%,
equivalent to an additional cost of USD 1 for a flight between New Delhi and
Chennai, for instance.
To align biofuel production with the IEA Net Zero Scenario, it will be necessary to
enter new markets; increase feedstock supplies; accelerate technology
deployment; and reduce GHG emissions intensity. In the Net Zero Scenario,
biofuels make up 8% of shipping fuel and 10% of aviation fuel by 2030, up from
nearly zero in 2022 and well above accelerated case projections.
As over 80% of biofuel demand is concentrated in just four markets – the United
States, Brazil, Europe and Indonesia – which account for only half of global
transport fuel demand, policy lessons from these markets can be used to expand
production in other regions. At the same time, conventional and waste-based
feedstock supplies will have to be enlarged through enhanced land productivity
and residue collection, underpinned by robust sustainability frameworks.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Country or
Main- and accelerated-case policies, assumptions and blending levels
region
Main case: Existing Renewable Fuel Standard commitments remain in place. IRA provisions
are implemented as presented in the act. Ethanol blending reaches 10.7% and exports climb
to 2018 record levels of 7 billion litres by 2028. Renewable diesel expands according to
planned capacity additions from projects in advanced development stages. Renewable diesel
blending reaches 9% in 2028. Biodiesel blending declines to 2.7% while biojet fuel supply
and demand expand to accommodate 2% blending for all jet use. Biojet fuel makes up almost
15% of renewable diesel production in 2028.
United
States Accelerated case: A strengthened version of the Renewable Fuel Standard boosts domestic
biofuel demand, combined with extended IRA credits, deployment of E15 blending pumps
and stronger state-level LCFSs. Combined, these policies help achieve blending rates of
13% for ethanol and 4% for biodiesel. Renewable diesel blending increases to 10%, requiring
additional production capacity beyond projects in advanced development stages. Biojet fuel
blending expands to 8%, nearly two-thirds of the way to achieving the SAF Grand Challenge
goal. Ethanol production increases to meet both domestic and net export demand using
existing ethanol manufacturing capacity.
Main case: Brazil increases mandatory ethanol blending to 30%, and hydrous ethanol
purchases expand so that total blending reaches 58% by 2028. The biodiesel grade reaches
B11 in 2023, climbing to B15 by 2025. There is a small amount of renewable diesel blending
(0.8%) by 2028 based on planned project additions. The forecast assumes soybean oil prices
decline from 2021/22 records but remain high compared with historical levels.
Accelerated case: Brazil achieves its B15 blending target as in the main case but also
Brazil accepts renewable diesel and co-processing so that additional renewable diesel growth
results in 3% blending in 2028. Ethanol blending expands marginally but more quickly, to
62% in 2028. Part of total ethanol blending is a continuation of blending requirements of 30%.
Hydrous ethanol sales (100% ethanol) make up the remainder of ethanol demand. The
proposed aviation GHG emissions reduction target is implemented, requiring 2% biojet fuel
blending by 2028. Enough ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel and biojet fuel are produced
to serve domestic consumption, and ethanol production increases further to meet export
demand.
Main case: India achieves 13% ethanol blending on average across the country by 2028 and
all fuel ethanol is produced domestically. E20 is available starting in 2023, although the
forecast assumes that vehicle incompatibility limits ethanol uptake. Biodiesel blending
remains around 0.25%.
Accelerated case: India achieves its 20% ethanol blending mandate in 2026 and advances
India towards its 5% biodiesel blending goal, reaching 4.5% by 2028, assuming it resolves vehicle
compatibility issues and establishes used cooking oil collection. It continues to support
domestic production and allows fuel ethanol imports of up to 20% of demand. India also
follows through on ambitions for biojet fuel blending, reaching 2% by 2028 for international
flights. This would require dedicated policy support and the development of new feedstock
pathways for residue fats, oils and greases; vegetable oils grown on marginal land/cover
crops; and alcohol-to-jet capacity.
Main case: No significant changes affect ethanol or biodiesel policies. Ethanol blending
remains near 2% and biodiesel at 0.5%. Ethanol imports hold steady around 2020/21 levels.
Biodiesel exports remain near 2022 levels and renewable diesel exports expand according to
planned project additions in advanced development stages.
China Accelerated case: China implements policies aligned with its bioeconomy plan, including
blending targets of 4.5% for ethanol, 3.5% for biodiesel and renewable diesel, and 1.3% for
SAFs in domestic aviation by 2028. It continues to allow ethanol imports of up to 10% of
demand from the United States and other countries. Exports continue for biodiesel but drop
to zero for renewable diesel and biojet fuel. Production of both fuels is used to satisfy
domestic demand following plans to scale up biofuel use in diesel vehicles and shipping.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Country or
Main- and accelerated-case policies, assumptions and blending levels
region
Main case: Biodiesel blending increases to 35% by 2028 for transport and nearly 35% for
non-transport uses. The main blending source is biodiesel at 34%, followed by renewable
diesel at 3%. Biodiesel use remains below 35% because of compatibility issues, and
renewable diesel is limited to planned projects. Ethanol demand expands to permit 0.8% for
blending, reflecting fuel distributor targets and Indonesia’s intention to blend more diesel.
Biojet fuel production and use climb based on planned projects, reaching 2% of jet fuel
Indonesia demand by 2028.
Accelerated case: Indonesia meets the B40 mandate for transport and non-transport fuel
consumption and aims for B45. This requires additional renewable diesel manufacturing
capacity. Indonesia also enforces SAF blending of 2% by 2025 and 4% by 2028. Exports
remain small, as most production is dedicated to domestic demand. Ethanol blending
reaches 10% by 2028.
Main case: EU member countries implement the Renewable Energy Directive III or their own
domestic targets if more stringent, and non-EU countries achieve domestic targets. Biojet fuel
use expands to meet the ReFuelEU 2%-by-2025 target and 6% by 2030, reaching 4% by
2028. As per the ReFuelEU proposal, feed/food crop-based fuels are not eligible, and fuels
must otherwise meet the requirements of RED II, Annex IX, Part A or Part B.
• Germany’s GHG emissions reduction target climbs to 18% by 2028, up from 7%.
Biodiesel and ethanol blending remain steady, while renewable diesel expands to 3.5%.
• France meets its 9% ethanol and 9.9% biodiesel blending targets (on an energy basis).
Ethanol blending increases to 15% assuming ongoing support for E85; biodiesel
blending remains flat; renewable diesel blending expands to 3.5%; and biojet fuel
reaches 4% by 2028.
• In Spain, ethanol blending climbs to 6% while biodiesel blending remains flat, but
renewable diesel blending expands to 6% and biojet fuel to 3.5%.
Europe • Finland, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom all achieve near-10% ethanol
blending. Sweden reduces its blending obligations from 58% to 8% by 2030 for
biodiesel/renewable diesel, and from 24% to 8% by 2028 for ethanol; it also reaches 3%
biojet fuel blending. Finland reduces its blending requirements to 22.5% by 2027, down
from a 34% target by 2030. In Italy, renewable diesel blending expands to 5%.
• The United Kingdom makes progress towards its target of 10% SAF blending by 2030,
with the mandate starting in 2025. Norway continues working towards its 0.5% SAF
target.
• Poland implements E10 reaching near 10% ethanol blending by 2028.
Accelerated case: Sweden and Finland reinstitute their GHG intensity and blending
requirements. The European Commission strengthens the RED to a 32% renewable energy
share for transport. The European Union maintains and strengthens sustainability
requirements for biofuels, which limits some imports. The United Kingdom establishes a
10%-by-2030 SAF target, reaching 6% blending by 2028.
Main case: Canada continues with its Clean Fuel Standard in 2023, and Malaysia’s B20
mandate is implemented. Thailand makes progress on its E20 target, reaching 15% blending
by 2028, while biodiesel use expands to 10% based on government support plans.
Singapore’s renewable diesel and biojet fuel production expand to fill domestic shortfalls in
the rest of the world. Argentina’s biodiesel blending climbs to 10% and ethanol to 12%.
Colombia reaches 10% ethanol blending by 2028, while biodiesel blending rises to 12% over
the forecast period. Japan pursues 10% SAF use by 2030.
Other
Accelerated case: Canada follows the United States in supporting SAFs. Malaysia expands
countries
biodiesel blending to 20% for the industry sector and supports an HVO/SAF refinery and
domestic biojet fuel use. Singapore pursues 5% SAFs by 2030 and the United Arab Emirates
achieves its 0.7-billion-litre SAF target, with 0.4 billion coming from biojet fuel. Brazil
implements its GHG emissions intensity target for aviation, achieving 2% biojet fuel blending
by 2028, while Colombia pursues 13% biodiesel blending. Thailand achieves 20% ethanol
blending by 2026 and allows 10% ethanol imports. Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria,
Mozambique, South Africa, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe all follow through on biofuel
mandates of up to 10% ethanol blending and 5% biodiesel blending through 2028.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Countries with cheaper biofuels, such as Brazil, achieve higher blending rates with
similar financial support. For instance, one litre of 34% ethanol-blended fuel (on an
energy basis) in Brazil has cost an extra 4 US cents per litre-eq on average over the
past 13 years. In the United States, a 6% blend (on an energy basis) has raised
prices by about 2 US cents per litre.
Implicit subsidy ranges for biofuel blends, and average blending shares on an energy
basis by fuel, 2010-2023
0.12
Average blending share 12%
USD/litre energy equivalent
0.10 34% 6%
0.08
5%
0.06
7% 3% 3%
0.04 6%
0.02
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol Biodiesel Biodiesel Ethanol
United States Brazil Europe Indonesia India
Ethanol price impact - gasoline Biodiesel price impact - diesel
Average price difference - gasoline Average price difference - diesel
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: The blended cost is the total value of the gasoline with ethanol, or the biodiesel/renewable diesel with conventional
diesel. Implicit subsidies are calculated by subtracting the gasoline or diesel price from the blended cost. The octane benefit
of ethanol is estimated at USD 0.02-0.05/litre depending on the year and country, and it is incorporated into ranges and
averages. Price differences are based on energy equivalents, not volumes, and ranges reflect annual averages between
2010 and 2023. Average blending shares indicate each region’s biofuel energy share in total transport energy demand. For
Brazil, anhydrous and hydrous costs were estimated separately and then combined for an average cost.
Sources: Pre-tax market prices for gasoline, diesel, ethanol, biodiesel and renewable diesel are from Argus and S&P Global.
Prices include production and distribution.
3
Note that all blending rates and cost estimates are quoted on a per-litre, energy-equivalent basis, not on a per-volume
basis. For instance, ethanol blending in the United States is nearly 10% on a volume basis, but on an energy basis it is
closer to 6%.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
The level of financial support needed for biofuels can change quickly, however. In
Indonesia, rising palm oil prices and higher biodiesel mandates pushed subsidy
costs from 1 US cent in 2019 to 10 US cents per litre-eq in 2021, leading to
subsidy adjustments and a halt in blending increases. Brazil faced a similar
situation, with the cost of blended diesel fuel rising from almost nothing to
4 US cents per litre-eq in 2021 due to higher soybean oil prices, prompting a
slowdown in biodiesel mandate increases. However, favourable conditions such
as high gasoline and low sugar prices have occasionally made ethanol blending
financially beneficial in Brazil.
While the cost gap for biodiesel blends widens over the
forecast period, ethanol remains steady
Biodiesel-blend fuel costs are forecast to rise with higher blending levels and
increasing feedstock prices, particularly in the United States and Indonesia.
Conversely, ethanol-blend fuel costs are likely to remain steady or even decline in
some regions thanks to stable or decreasing prices for dominant feedstocks such
as sugarcane and corn.
These estimates are indicative only, however, as they are based on macro-trends
such as global population growth, dietary patterns, planting rates and yield
improvements with impacts on global supply and demand. Agricultural commodity
prices can vary considerably year over year and are the primary determinant of
biofuel production costs.
Ethanol-blend fuel prices are likely to remain within historical bounds, as both
blending rate and feedstock price increases are expected to be moderate. In
Brazil, for instance, ethanol blending rates climb 10 percentage points over the
forecast period, but the cost difference with pure gasoline falls from 6 to 4 US
cents per litre. Costs decline because sugar and corn prices were near peak levels
in 2023 due to weather-related supply disruptions and ongoing upward pressure
on grain prices from supply risks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
In Europe and the United States, modest blending increases are anticipated, with
feedstock prices remaining around historical levels. In India, feedstock prices
remain flat, but increasing ethanol blending means blended-fuel costs increase to
near the upper historical range.
Forecast implicit subsidy ranges in the main case, and historical averages, 2010-2028
Ethanol blends Biodiesel blends
0.10 0.25
0.08 0.20
0.06
0.15
0.04
0.02 0.10
0.00
0.05
-0.02
-0.04 0.00
2023 2028 2023 2028 2023 2028 2023 2028 2023 2028 2023 2028 2023 2028 2023 2028
United Brazil Europe India United Brazil Europe Indonesia
States States
Blended-fuel cost/savings Blended-fuel cost/savings at USD 50/t carbon price Historical range
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: The blended cost is the total value of the gasoline with ethanol (left) and the biodiesel/renewable diesel with
conventional diesel (right). Implicit subsidies are calculated by subtracting the gasoline or diesel price from the blended cost.
Historical ranges are based on average annual maximum and minimum implicit subsidies between 2010 and 2023. Future
gasoline and diesel prices are equal to average prices between 2010 to 2023, whereas future biofuel prices are based on
estimated production costs using forecast feedstock prices from the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032.
PAGE | 109
Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
However, the share of vegetable oils used in biofuel production is expected to rise
from 19% in 2022 to 24% in 2028, putting pressure on global supplies. The use of
residue fats, oils and greases, such as used cooking oil and animal fats, expands
the most in the United States and Europe, where they receive preferential policy
treatment. Meanwhile, agricultural and forestry residues and municipal wastes
used to produce ethanol, renewable diesel and biojet more than double by 2028.
Biofuel feedstock demand growth by fuel and region, main case, 2023-2028
70 9 4.5
Feedstock demand (Mt/yr)
8 4.0
60
7 3.5
50 6 3.0
40 5 2.5
30 4 2.0
3 1.5
20 2 1.0
10 1 0.5
0 0
0.0
- 10 -0.5
Sugars Starches Vegetable oils UCO and animal fats Other residues Ethanol
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: RoW = rest of world. UCO = used cooking oil. Forecast feedstock demand is based on the production forecast,
planned capacity additions (with stated feedstock preferences) and policy-imposed feedstock limits.
Crops, primarily sugarcane and corn, support more than 95% of new ethanol
production over the forecast period. Globally, the portion of sugars and starches
designated for biofuel production climbs just one percentage point to 14% of global
production. Even in Brazil, the share of sugarcane dedicated to ethanol remains
flat despite a 40% increase in ethanol production, thanks to an expansion in sugar
supplies and growing corn-based ethanol production. In the United States, corn
demand for ethanol is down slightly due to a marginal decline in ethanol production
over the forecast period. Other regions show minimal new demand for ethanol
feedstocks.
The United States accounts for over half of new demand for renewable diesel
feedstocks, primarily vegetable oils and residue fats, oils and greases. Globally,
vegetable oil demand expands more than 40% by 2028, driving increased
vegetable oil production in the United States and Canada. Nevertheless, biofuel
demand increases more quickly than vegetable oil production, putting pressure on
supplies.
Although tax credits and loan programmes are supporting feedstock expansion
through several projects to convert wood wastes into renewable diesel, planned
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
volumes remain small. In Europe, the RED and national policies are steering
production towards wastes and residues, but elsewhere, palm oil in Indonesia and
soybean oil in Brazil feed most additional production.
Wastes and residues are anticipated to account for about 60% of biojet fuel growth
over the forecast period. In the United States, grant and loan programmes such
as the Fuelling Aviation’s Sustainable Transition loan programme support new
production pathways, and a dedicated tax credit for biojet fuel rewards lower-
GHG-emissions-intensity fuels. In the European Union, ReFuelEU Aviation
legislation excludes food and feed crops, directing biojet fuel producers towards
used cooking oil, animal fats and other residue oils. As with the United States, a
few projects relying on woody wastes and other residues will likely be
commissioned.
Low-carbon fuel standard credits per tonne of reduced GHG emissions have been
worth up to USD 0.50/litre, although average credit prices are closer to
USD 0.20/litre for biofuels substituting for diesel or jet fuel. Cleaner fuels are also
allocated a higher value, with one litre of low-GHG-intensity renewable diesel
(15 g CO2-eq/MJ) earning USD 0.20/litre, double the credit of higher-intensity
(50 g CO2-eq/MJ) fuel.
The United States, Canada and the European Union will implement policies that
directly incentivise GHG emissions reductions over the forecast period, adding to
existing initiatives such as Brazil’s RenovaBio and various state and provincial
policies in the United States and Canada. Each proposed policy has its own
unique design, but they generally establish a GHG emissions reduction target,
lifecycle emission factors, a credit trading market and rules for fuel eligibility. The
value of these credits can vary significantly across regions and over time. Credits
in California, for instance, have climbed to more than USD 200/t CO2 but they
traded at an average of just under USD 75/t CO2 in 2023. In Brazil, RenovaBio
credits traded at USD 23/t CO2 in 2023, near peak levels.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
The United States offers a different approach with the IRA, linking tax credits to
GHG emissions performance and thereby retaining incentives for incremental
improvements. For instance, the clean fuel production tax credit for SAF offers
USD 0.33/litre for SAF that has a 50% lower GHG intensity than fossil fuels.
However, an additional USD 0.13/litre is available for fuels that beat the minimum.
This credit can also be combined with low-carbon fuel standard credits in the
states that have them, and potentially other IRA credits for clean hydrogen
production. It does not, however, regulate a final GHG emission intensity for the
aviation sector, or other fuel uses. The International Maritime Organization is also
considering introducing a low-carbon fuel standard and a carbon price for
international marine fuels, but details have not been published so it is not
considered in our forecast.
Value of low-carbon fuel standard-type policies based on carbon intensity, credit value
and fuel type (left), and carbon credit value based on existing carbon intensity policies
(right)
200 USD/tonne CO2 Share fuel cost IRA - SEC 45V RenovaBio
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: LCFS = low-carbon fuel standard. IRA = Inflation Reduction Act. Credit values in the left graph are based on the
difference between the example biofuel lifecycle carbon intensities (-15, 15 and 50 g CO2/MJ) and default lifecycle carbon
intensities for gasoline (85 g CO2/MJ), diesel (89 g CO2-eq/MJ) and jet fuel (89 g CO2/MJ). “Share of fuel cost” is the value
of the carbon credit relative to the estimated levelised cost of production for ethanol, renewable diesel and biojet fuel in 2023.
US biojet credits in the right graph are based on an LCFS credit value of USD 75/t CO2 and the value of Sec. 40B –
sustainable aviation fuel credit – beyond the minimum threshold and IRA Sec. 45V for hydrogen with a carbon intensity below
0.45 kg CO2-eq/kg H2. Biojet fuel in the United States is also eligible for the RINS under the RFS (estimated at USD 0.48/litre)
and the base Sec. 40B value of USD 0.33/litre. Fuel share is based on the levelised cost of producing biojet fuel using low-
GHG-intensity hydrogen and used cooking oil. Brazil’s ethanol value is based on the average 2023 RenovaBio credit value
of USD 23/t CO2 and the value per litre of ethanol at different lifecycle GHG intensity values. The share of fuel cost of these
credits is based on the estimated levelised production cost for sugarcane ethanol in Brazil for 2023.
PAGE | 112
Renewables 2023 Chapter 2. Transport biofuels
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Implementation
Region Policy name Target Price range
date (s)
Up to
USD 0.46/litre
Inflation Reduction
United States No target 2022 depending on
Act
GHG emissions
intensity
California - 20%
reduction by 2030 California -
California, Oregon Oregon - 20% USD 22-
State-level low- California - 2011
and Washington low- reduction by 2030 206/t CO2
carbon fuel Oregon - 2016
carbon fuel Washington - Oregon -
standards Washington - 2023
standards 20% reduction by USD 47-
2034 165/t CO2
95 million carbon
Brazil RenovaBio reduction credits 2020 USD 7-40/t CO2
by 2031
Clean Fuel 13% reduction by
Canada 2023 TBD
Regulations 2030
Greenhouse Gas
Provincial-level Reduction
30% reduction by USD 15-
low-carbon fuel (Renewable & Low- 2013
2030 360/t CO2
standards Carbon Fuel
Requirements) Act
14.5% reduction
Renewable Energy by 2030; optional
European Union 2025 TBD
Directive 29% renewable
energy share
25% reduction by USD 125-515/t
Germany 2016
2030 CO2
Previously 66%
reduction for Maximum USD
diesel use and 670/t CO2 former
Sweden 2018
28% reduction for
gasoline use by penalty rate
2030
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 113
Renewables 2023 Chapter 3. Heat
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Chapter 3. Heat
Industry sector renewable heat use increased the most in India over the last six
years, owing chiefly to expansion of the sugar and ethanol industry that uses
biomass residues, and – to a lesser extent – to the development of biomass
briquette use in industrial boilers. The next-largest increases were in the European
Union, thanks mainly to greater municipal waste and biomass use, and in China,
with increasing reliance on electricity (a growing part of which is renewables-
based) for process heat.
1
For the first time, the renewable heat outlook in this edition of the IEA renewable energy market report series includes
regional estimates of ambient heat harnessed by heat pumps in the building sector. However, ambient heat from heat pumps
in the industry sector is still not accounted for, due to limited data availability. Data presented in this report differ from the IEA
World Energy Outlook 2023 dataset only by the inclusion of ambient heat estimates. Renewable heat consumption therefore
includes the direct use of bioenergy and solar thermal and geothermal heat; ambient heat harnessed by heat pumps; the
indirect use of power sector renewable energy through electricity used for heat generation; and the indirect use of renewable
energy sources through district heat consumption. Heat pump contributions to renewable heat consumption are split into the
renewable fraction of electricity they consume, and the ambient heat they transfer.
2
In this report, heat consumption in the buildings sector covers space heating, water heating and cooking applications.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 3. Heat
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Renewable energy consumption and shares of heat demand in selected regions, 2022
(left), and global increases in renewable energy consumption, 2017-2028 (right)
6 60% 7 28%
EJ
EJ
5 50%
6 24%
4 40%
3 30% 5 20%
2 20% 4 16%
1 10%
3 12%
0 0%
China
United States
United States
China
India
EU
Rest of world
Brazil
EU
Canada
Rest of World
2 8%
1 4%
0 0%
2017-22 2023-28 2017-22 2023-28
Buildings Industry Buidings Industry
Ambient heat Renewable district heat
Geothermal (direct use) Solar thermal
Modern use of bioenergy Renewable electricity
Share of modern renewables at period end (right axis)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: EU=European Union. Ambient heat from heat pumps used in the industry sector is not accounted for due to limited
data availability
Sources: IEA (2023), World Energy Outlook 2023; IEA (2023), Global Energy and Climate Model.
3
This calculation is based on the IPCC estimate for the remaining carbon budget of 500 Gt CO2 from the beginning of 2020
until the time of net zero global emissions, considering cumulative global CO2 emissions of 112 Gt CO2 over 2020-2022.
Please note that the remaining carbon budget values depend on non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies and
are subject to uncertainty.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 115
Renewables 2023 Chapter 3. Heat
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Global changes in heat consumption in the buildings and industry sectors, and shares
of renewables in heat demand, 2017-2028
20 30%
EJ
5 15%
Modern renewable heat
0 10%
Share of traditional use of biomass in
heat at period end (right axis)
-5 5%
Share of modern renewables in heat
- 10 0% at period end (right axis)
2017-2022 2023-2028 2017-2022 2023-2028
Buildings Industry
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: ambient heat from heat pumps used in the industry sector is not accounted for due to limited data availability.
Sources: IEA (2023), World Energy Outlook 2023; IEA (2023), Global Energy and Climate Model.
Industry
This growing reliance on electricity for process heat (from 4% of global industrial
heat consumption in 2022 to almost 11% in 2028) comes mostly from non-energy-
intensive industries, with industrial heat pumps increasingly meeting temperature
needs of up to 200°C, and from scrap metal recycling and aluminium industries,
which use electric arc furnaces. China leads this trend, enlarging its use of
renewable electricity for process heat more than fivefold over the outlook period,
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 3. Heat
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
representing almost half of global growth while the European Union, the United
States and Japan together account for one-third of it.
2023-28
2017-22
2023-28
2017-22
2023-28
2017-22
2023-28
2017-22
2023-28
2017-22
2023-28
2017-22
2023-28
Share of renewables at
period end (right axis)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: EU=European Union. Ambient heat from heat pumps used in the industry sector is not accounted for due to limited
data availability.
Source: IEA (2023), World Energy Outlook 2023.
Remaining industry sector growth in renewable heat use comes essentially from
rising bioenergy consumption (+1.8 EJ/+15%), which remains the largest
renewable energy source globally, meeting around 10% of global industrial heat
demand over the outlook period. More than 60% of this projected growth takes
place in India, with Brazil, China, sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and the European
Union responsible for most of the remainder. However, global bioenergy
developments essentially reflect expanding industrial activity – mostly in non-
energy-intensive and non-metallic-mineral industries (e.g. cement) – rather than
fuel switching, so the share of bioenergy in industrial heat consumption actually
remains flat during the outlook period.
Meanwhile, higher consumption is expected for solar thermal heat (up more than
160%/+35 PJ) and geothermal heat (up nearly 60%/+14 PJ) in industrial
processes. The global solar industrial heat market maintained its dynamism in
2022, with at least 30 MW of new projects starting operation, mostly in Europe,
China and the United States, leading to total cumulative global capacity of more
than 850 MW. Furthermore, more than 300 MW of additional capacity are
expected to start operation during 2023-2026.
Yet, the combined projected solar thermal and geothermal contribution remains
marginal overall, representing less than 1% of industry sector growth in renewable
heat consumption. The strong potential of these technologies to decarbonise low-
and medium-temperature processes, commonly found in the food and beverage,
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 3. Heat
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
textile, chemical and mining industries, for instance, remains massively untapped
in this outlook due to low awareness and a lack of local expertise and policy
support. Energy service companies (ESCOs) are expected to play an increasingly
important role in projected developments, especially for large industrial process
heat projects.
PJ
4 500
50
4 000
3 500 40
3 000 30
2 500
2 000 20
1 500 10
1 000
0
500
0 - 10
2017-22 2023-28 2017-22 2023-28 2017-22 2023-28 2017-22 2023-28 2017-22 2023-28
Renewable Bioenergy Solar thermal Geothermal Renewable district
electricity (direct use) heat
China India European Union United States Japan Brazil Rest of world
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Ambient heat from heat pumps used in the industry sector is not accounted for due to limited data availability.
Source: IEA (2023), World Energy Outlook 2023.
Buildings
4
The progressive erosion of some energy conservation measures individuals and enterprises adopted during the energy
crisis is also expected to raise buildings sector heat demand in Europe.
5
Heat consumption corresponds mostly to water heating and cooking in India, Indonesia, sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast
Asia, while space heating represents a major part of demand in other regions.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 118
Renewables 2023 Chapter 3. Heat
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Buildings sector increases in renewable heat consumption and shares of modern and
traditional uses of renewables in heat demand, selected regions, 2017-2028
2 100 70% Renewable district heat
PJ
1 800 60%
1 500 50% Geothermal (direct use)
1 200 40%
Solar thermal
900 30%
600 20% Modern use of bioenergy
300 10%
Ambient heat
0 0%
- 300 -10%
Renewable electricity
2017-22
2023-28
2017-22
2023-28
2017-22
2023-28
2017-22
2023-28
2017-22
2023-28
2017-22
2023-28
2017-22
2023-28
Share of modern
renewables in heat
China EU United India Sub- Middle Rest of
States Saharan East world Share of traditional use
Africa of biomass
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: EU=European Union
Sources: IEA (2023), World Energy Outlook 2023; IEA (2023), Global Energy and Climate Model.
Boosted by strong policy support in the context of high energy prices, global heat
pump sales rose 11% in 2022. The European market experienced record 39%
growth with 3 million new units installed, while in the United States heat pump
purchases exceeded those of gas furnaces. The Chinese market – the world’s
largest heat pump market – remained stable, however, due to the global economic
slowdown.
Heat pumps typically use three to five times less electricity than conventional
resistive electric heaters and boilers for a given heat output. While heat pumps
consumed less than 15% of the electricity used for heat in buildings globally in
2022, their deployment accounts for one-third of the global increase in electricity
use over 2023-2028, and nearly one-quarter of the growth in renewable electricity
use.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 3. Heat
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Furthermore, heat pumps participate in renewable heat uptake not only by using
electricity but by harnessing ambient heat, which represents one-quarter of global
growth in renewable heat consumption in buildings during 2023-2028 – the
second-largest increase (+1.4 EJ) after renewable electricity. This expanding
ambient heat contribution comes primarily from China, followed by the European
Union and the United States, owing to strong policy support (investment grants,
fiscal incentives and loans) introduced in 2021.
Since announcement of the REPowerEU plan’s heat pump targets, the heat pump
industry has been preparing to scale up, with nearly EUR 5 billion of investments
in EU manufacturing capacity and logistics announced for 2023-2026.
Sustained sales of wood chip and pellet stoves and boilers in the European Union,
especially in Italy, France and Germany, contribute slightly (+0.07 EJ) to the
bioenergy outlook. However, high investment costs for automated systems, rising
biomass fuel prices, technical requirements (e.g. space for fuel storage) and
supply chain tensions hinder faster deployment. In 2022, the United States and
Europe – the world’s largest wood pellet consumer – were already facing a supply
crunch for wood pellets as demand surged.
PAGE | 120
Renewables 2023 Chapter 3. Heat
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Buildings sector increases in renewable heat consumption and shares in heat demand
by source, selected regions, 2017-2028
6%
2 000 Middle East
5%
1 500 4% Sub-Saharan Africa
1 000 3%
India
2%
500 United States
1%
0 0%
European Union
2017-22
2023-28
2017-22
2023-28
2017-22
2023-28
2017-22
2023-28
2017-22
2023-28
China
Renewable Ambient Bioenergy Solar Geothermal
electricity heat thermal (direct use) Share of buildings heat demand at
period end (right axis)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Sources: IEA (2023), World Energy Outlook 2023; IEA (2023), Global Energy and Climate Model.
PAGE | 121
Renewables 2023 Chapter 3. Heat
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
To align with IEA Net Zero Scenario targets, global renewable heat consumption
would have to advance 2.2 times more quickly, while wide-scale sufficiency-
oriented behavioural and social change, 6 and much larger energy and material
efficiency improvements, would be required to reduce global heat demand by
more than 2% during 2023-2028.
14 90
12 30% 80
70
10
60
8 20%
50
6 40
4 10% 30
2 20
0 0% 10
2017-22 2023-28 2023-28 2017-22 2023-28 2023-28 0
Outlook NZE Outlook NZE Outlook NZE
Industry Buildings
Industry
Renewable district heat Geothermal
Solar thermal Modern use of bioenergy Buildings
Ambient heat Renewable electricity Agriculture
Share of modern renewables at period end (right axis)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: NZE = IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. Ambient heat from heat pumps used in the industry sector is not
accounted for due to limited data availability. Heat-related cumulative CO2 emissions over 2023-2028 in the outlook and Net
Zero Scenario correspond respectively to approximately 22% and 20% of the remaining carbon budget (RCB) from the
beginning of 2023 for a 50% likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C. This calculation is based on the IPCC RCB estimate of
500 Gt CO2 from the beginning of 2020 until the time of net zero global emissions, considering cumulative global CO2
emissions of 112 Gt CO2 over 2020-2022. Please note that these values depend on non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation
strategies and are subject to uncertainty.
Sources: IEA (2023), World Energy Outlook 2023; IEA (2023), Global Energy and Climate Model.
6
Sufficiency corresponds to the tailoring and scaling of infrastructure, technology choices and behaviours to fundamental
needs while selectively avoiding nonessential resource-intensive services and consumption patterns to avoid demand for
energy, materials, land and water. Energy sufficiency policies and actions aim to allow affordable access to energy to meet
everyone’s needs and fair access to meet their energy wants, while keeping the impacts of energy use within planetary
boundaries.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 3. Heat
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
In the IEA Net Zero Scenario, industrial consumption of bioenergy and renewable
electricity for heat both increase 2.3 times faster than in our outlook, resulting in
the largest discrepancy in absolute value between the two trajectories. Meanwhile,
solar thermal and geothermal heat consumption in industry in the Net Zero
Scenario expands almost 20 times faster than currently projected.
For the buildings sector, the Net Zero Scenario outlines a substantial 21%
reduction in heat demand during 2023-2028 and relies on much stronger
(4.4 times faster) modern bioenergy development, mostly to replace the traditional
use of biomass, which is assumed to decline 70% (-17 EJ). Faster heat pump
deployment in the Net Zero Scenario also prompts renewable electricity use and
ambient heat consumption to increase more than 40% more quickly than in our
outlook. Meeting the scenario’s trajectory would require that heat pumps make up
nearly 40% of global heating equipment sales by 2028 – more than double our
current outlook amount, and four times more than in 2022.
Overall, the share of renewables in heat consumption rises to 22% in industry and
34% in buildings by 2028 in the Net Zero Scenario, while cumulative heat-related
CO2 emissions over 2023-2028 are 8% lower than in our outlook.
PAGE | 123
Renewables 2023 Chapter 3. Heat
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
of 45%. Targets for heating and cooling have been revised upwards with binding
renewable share increases of at least 0.8 percentage points per year at the
national level until 2026 and 1.1% from 2026 to 2030, complemented by indicative
country-specific top-up rates to reach an average annual increase of
1.8 percentage points at the EU level.
The revised directive also includes indicative targets of at least 49% renewable
energy in the buildings sector by 2030 as well as 1.6-percentage-point average
annual increases in the share of renewables in the industry sector for 2021-2025
and 2026-2030, and 2.2-percentage-point average annual increases during 2021-
2030 for district heating and cooling. In addition, member states agreed that 42%
of the hydrogen used in industry should come from renewable fuels of
nonbiological origin by 2030.
Furthermore, RED III strengthens the sustainability criteria for using biomass for
energy in line with the principle of cascading use of biomass, with a focus on
adapting support schemes to limit the use of primary wood for energy. Member
countries are expected to submit their draft action plans to conform with the
updated directive by June 2024.
The European Union also strengthened its Energy Efficiency Directive in 2023,
adding a new binding target to reduce final energy consumption by at least 11.7%
compared with the reference scenario by 2030. Accordingly, member countries
will be required to achieve average annual energy savings of 1.49% from 2024 to
2030, up from the 2021-2023 requirement of 0.8%. 7 Additionally, the revised
Energy Efficiency Directive extends the annual 3% building renovation obligation
to all public buildings, with these energy saving targets and renovation obligations
also expected to stimulate heat pump deployment.
China also implemented new targets in 2022 with enforcement of its 14th Five-
Year Plan for Building Energy Conservation and Green Building Development,
which introduces the country’s first binding national energy-efficiency standard.
The plan, which applies to new buildings, stipulates that onsite renewables meet
8% of energy demand in buildings in urban areas, and that the share of electricity
in buildings sector energy demand exceed 55% by 2025. It also aims for
geothermal heat to cover 100 million square metres of floor space. In addition, the
country’s 2022 Work Plan on Energy Saving and Environment Protection in
Government and Public Buildings requires that new heat pump installations meet
the heating needs of 2 million square metres of public building floor space.
7
Annual energy savings requirements for member states will increase gradually to 1.3% over 2024-2025, 1.5% over 2026-
2027 and 1.9% for 2028 onwards, resulting in 1.49% average annual energy savings from 2024 to 2030.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 3. Heat
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
80% 35
70% 30
60%
25
demand
10% 5
0% 0
Grants Income tax Low-interest VAT rebate
rebates loans
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Source: IEA (2023), The Future of Heat Pumps.
Since the beginning of 2023, subsidy levels for heat pumps and renewables-based
heating systems have been increased in Austria, Ireland, Poland and the United
States. In Europe, with sales totalling nearly 3 million units in 2022, the heat pump
sector benefited from more than EUR 9 billion in policy support through subsidies,
tax credits and reduced VAT, in addition to specific loan schemes. 8 Assuming
support schemes remain unchanged, and considering projected heat pump
deployment, this value could more than double by 2028.
8
This estimate does not account for policy support provided for building retrofits and the replacement of radiators and heat
distribution systems, although such upgrades also benefit the heat pump sector indirectly by improving building compatibility
with this technology.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 3. Heat
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
support by building trust with end users, helping them select the most appropriate
renewable heat technology and design for their purpose, financing the installation
and ensuring its quality.
Estimated government support in the form of subsidies and fiscal incentives for heat
pumps in selected European countries, 2022
7
Billion EUR
Finland
5
United Kingdom
4
Poland
3
Germany
2
France
1
Italy
0
Investment grants VAT reductions Tax rebates/credits
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: “Other European countries” includes Austria, Belgium, Switzerland, Czechia, Spain, Hungary, Ireland, Lithuania, the
Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden and Slovakia. Government spending estimates are based on national heat pump
sales in 2022 by technology and segment (as per EHPA) and the design of available national support schemes, assuming
typical investment costs when necessary. Although not accounted for here, various countries also offer support in the form
of low-interest loans (e.g. the Netherlands, Poland).
Regulatory measures such as renewable heat obligations and fossil fuel bans are
also developing in the buildings sector, predominantly in Europe and North
America. In fact, 17 European countries had implemented or announced bans on
fossil fuel-fired boiler installations by the end of 2022. Some bans target
installations in new buildings only, while others also cover replacements in existing
buildings.
For instance, France’s new building code introduced a national ban on gas boilers
in new single-family homes starting in 2022 and in new multifamily buildings from
2025, while a recent decree limiting the CO2 intensity of heating systems implicitly
banned the installation of oil- and coal-fired boilers in both new and existing
buildings as of 2022. In 2023, Germany announced a 65% renewable heat
obligation for new buildings in new housing development areas from 2024,
effectively ruling out the use of standalone fossil fuel-based boilers in those areas.
Fossil fuel boiler bans are also gaining momentum in the United States and
Canada, although they are being passed at only the regional, state or municipal
level (e.g. New York State, Boston, San Francisco, Montreal). Such explicit or de-
facto fossil fuel bans and renewable heat obligations in the buildings and industry
sectors are pivotal to accelerate the conversion to renewable heat while limiting
public spending by mobilising end-user funds.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 3. Heat
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
In December 2022, India amended its Energy Conservation Act to provide for a
carbon credit trading scheme. It also empowered the central government to
require designated consumers (e.g. the mining, steel, cement, textile and chemical
industries) to source a minimum share of their energy consumption from non-fossil
fuels.
In November 2022, for instance, the United States announced a USD 250-million
investment to boost domestic electric heat pump manufacturing, funded by the
Inflation Reduction Act and leveraging the Defense Production Act. More recently,
following the launch of the Green Deal Industrial Plan in February 2023, the
European Commission proposed the Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA) in March to
increase European manufacturing capacity by facilitating investment and
developing dedicated training programmes for low-carbon technologies, including
heat pumps 9 and geothermal and solar thermal technologies.
9
The NZIA targets 31 GW of annual EU heat pump manufacturing capacity by 2030, up from an estimated 22 GW in 2022.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 3. Heat
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
As PV-based water heating systems are still relatively new to the market, research
is ongoing to assess the environmental, social and economic benefits associated
with their deployment. As commercial solutions have similar investment costs as
traditional solar thermal water heaters in some markets, very low operating and
maintenance costs, and a relatively long lifetime, PV-based water heating has the
potential to become cost-competitive with existing sanitary hot water technologies
(including heat pumps and gas boilers) in many regions. For new PV-based
systems, installation makes up a large portion of the total cost, but this expense
could be reduced through equipment standardisation and the development of
plug-in solutions.
10
Solar power diverters are sometimes also referred to as solar PV optimisers, immersion diverters, or immersion
optimisers. Their cost is typically in the range of EUR 300-500, and they can be added to existing solar PV installations.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 3. Heat
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Levelised cost of heat for small sanitary hot water systems in selected countries, 2022
500
LCOH (EUR/MWh)
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
Italy
France
Germany
Italy
Italy
(estimate)
France
Germany
Italy
France
Germany
France
Germany
Solar thermal water Electric heat pump Condensing gas boiler Electric resistance PV-based water
heater with electric water heater (standalone) water heater heating with
heater backup (standalone) (standalone) electric boiler
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: LCOH = levelised cost of heat. Calculations are based on national average household gas and electricity prices for
2022. Insolation values are for capital cities (Paris, Rome, Berlin and London). Investment costs correspond to household
systems for 3-4 people, based on typical market prices and excluding policy support. For both solar thermal and solar PV-
based systems, the solar fraction is assumed to cover 50% of annual sanitary hot water demand. The solar PV collector area
is assumed to be sized accordingly (2 to 4 modules of 400 Wp depending on the country). The calculation assumes a
seasonal performance factor of 2.8 for heat pump water heaters. The levelised cost of heating is calculated based on national
average household hot water demand over the assumed lifetime of each technology (17-30 years for solar thermal water
heaters; 20-26 years for PV2heat systems, assuming replacement of the backup electric boiler and power diverter after 12
years; 14-20 years for standalone heat pump water heaters; 12-17 years for standalone condensing gas boilers; and 9-14
years for standalone electric water heaters). A discount rate of 2% is applied. For the sake of simplicity, this calculation
assumes neither net metering nor remuneration for excess solar PV generation, although such schemes could significantly
improve the economic case of solar PV-based systems. The LCOH range calculated for solar PV-based systems reflects a
preliminary theoretical estimate for the four countries shown in the figure. Actual values can be significantly influenced by hot
water consumption profiles, water storage capacity and, when they are used, by the control and optimisation strategies of
solar diverters.
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Renewables 2023 Chapter 3. Heat
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
in the European Union was estimated at roughly 9 GWh – less than the usable
heat stored in just one million medium-sized hot water tanks. 11
The cost of using hot water tanks for storage is an order of magnitude below that
of lithium batteries, and the critical mineral requirements are low in comparison.
Such distributed thermal storage units, already installed in many dwellings, could
also be deployed more widely with new water heating systems to facilitate VRE
integration considerably.
11
Assuming the tanks have a capacity of 180 litres, and considering the energy required to raise the water temperature from
15°C to 60°C. For comparison, there were 198 million households in the European Union in 2022.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 130
Renewables 2023 Special section: Biogas and biomethane
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Introduction
For the first time in the IEA’s renewable energy market report series, we are
dedicating a special section to biogas. Biogas production began to grow in the
1990s and has been rising since then, but policy support has surged strongly in
the last two years owing to a combination of factors. First, with energy security
concerns caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy
crisis, biogas is now regarded as a domestic energy source that can reduce
dependency on natural gas imports and support energy security in many
countries.
Second, in view of the urgent need to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C,
countries have begun to view biogas as a ready-to-use technology that can help
accelerate decarbonisation in the short term, and they are therefore developing
specific policies that include biogas as a key component in their energy transition
strategies.
Along with targeted policies, market conditions are stimulating biogas use. While
combined heat and power units generally run on biogas, other gas demand
markets (e.g. gas utilities, and the industry and transport sectors) will require the
use of biomethane, a purified biogas with high concentrations of methane, similar
in quality to natural gas and thus interchangeable with it. Biomethane is also
known as renewable natural gas (RNG) in the United States and Canada, bio-
compressed natural gas or compressed biogas (bio-CNG or CBG) in India and
bio-natural gas (BNG) in China.
Apart from being a clean domestic energy source, biogases (biogas and
biomethane) provide other benefits. For instance, biomethane can be used to
decarbonise hard-to-electrify sectors such as transport and industry. Both biogas
and biomethane use reduces not only CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion
but also, when correctly managed, methane emissions from the waste and
agriculture/livestock sectors (responsible for 60% of anthropogenic global
methane emissions). This advantage aligns well with the emissions reduction
objectives of the Global Methane Pledge launched in 2021 and signed by 155
countries (as of January 2024).
Thus, using biogas and biomethane helps build a circular economy around residue
and waste valorisation, contributes to rural economic development and creates
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Renewables 2023 Special section: Biogas and biomethane
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Biogas today
Combined global biogas and biomethane production reached more than 1.6 EJ in
2022 – a 17% increase from 2017. Almost half of the production is based in
Europe, with Germany alone meeting almost 20% of global consumption. Another
21% is produced in China, followed by the United States (12%) and India (9%).
However, regional and country variations can be significant. Depending on the
characteristics of each energy system, biogas/biomethane development is
supported differently by different governments to complement the rest of their
energy matrix.
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
European Union China United States and India Others
and United Kingdom Canada
Residential, commercial and public service use Biogas injected into natural gas grid
Industry use Agriculture/forestry use
Road transport Electricity and heat
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
More recently, since 2019 the Chinese government has been steering a biogas
industry transition, investing in large-scale (>10 mcm/year) bio-natural gas (BNG,
biomethane) projects. These plants would use rural and urban waste feedstocks
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Renewables 2023 Special section: Biogas and biomethane
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
in an integrated manner to produce electricity and gas to inject into the grid. The
Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Industrialisation of BNG from 2019 set
ambitious targets (10 bcm by 2025 and 20 bcm by 2030). Although production
expanded more slowly than planned during 2010-2020, new regulations
supporting biogas deployment have come into force in the last two years.
For instance, China’s 14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development
(2021-2025) focuses on large-scale projects for grid injection to diversify
applications, with subsidies still under discussion. A new national standard for
plant construction was released in 2022. While most of China’s
biogas/biomethane is produced from manure, there is growing interest in using
large rural facilities to also incorporate urban organic waste as feedstock.
Meanwhile, other schemes such as the 2022 National Biogas Programme cover
the use of biogas for power and thermal energy generation. This policy provide
financial aid, fixed feed-in tariffs and tax exemptions for bioCNG, taking into
account the particularities of rural and remote areas. India has great feedstock
potential, in the form of agricultural residues, manure, municipal organic waste
and sewage sludge. However, feedstock supply chains (e.g. for waste collection
or urban wastewater treatment) will require further development.
On the other hand, Europe has a mature biogas and biomethane industry with
growing markets. In European countries with a developed industry, governments
are seeking to encourage cost reductions and more competitive business models
that rely less on public support and more on market revenues, for instance clean
energy certificate trading or Guarantee of Origin schemes.
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Renewables 2023 Special section: Biogas and biomethane
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Traditionally, biogas has been promoted for power generation at combined heat
and power plants. However, with access to competitive renewable electricity
growing, governments are exploring ways to apply biomethane flexibility to
industrial and transport uses, either directly or through gas grid injection. While
the German government still provides support for biogas-fired electricity
production, as biogas is considered critical to balance electricity networks in the
south of the country, the United Kingdom incentivises both electricity generation
and grid injection. France, which has a more decarbonised electricity generation
mix, has long experience (since 2001) in supporting grid injection of biomethane
even from small, rural farm-sized plants – through, among other means, planning
and facilitating grid connections under the 2019 Right to Injection decree.
TSOs/DSOs partly subsidise grid connections in Germany (75%) and France
(60%).
Meanwhile, biomethane use as a vehicle fuel still claims only a small share of
biomethane production (20% in 2021), but growth is accelerating in many
European states. Many countries already have large compressed natural gas
(CNG) and liquified natural gas (LNG) vehicle fleets, and the number of CNG/LNG-
specific filling stations in the beginning of 2023 was considerable in Italy
(over 1 500), Germany (over 760), Sweden, France and Czechia (over 200), and
is growing quickly. Currently, biomethane makes up around 20% of gas consumed
by gas-fuelled vehicles.
At the same time, many countries are producing less biomethane from landfill gas
(UK production dropped from 84% in 2010 to 38% in 2022), due partially to the
2018/850 EU Landfill Waste Directive and the Waste and Resources Strategy for
England that ban organic material in municipal solid waste going to landfills by
2030. However, the organic fraction of municipal solid waste that contributes to
landfill gas, when collected separately, is still a valid feedstock source for biogas
plants. Additionally, EU Directive 2018/851 mandates the separate collection of
biowaste starting in 2024. Moreover, the new proposed EU Urban Wastewater
Treatment Directive will push for treatment plants to become energy-neutral, and
a good way to achieve this is to produce biogas from sewage sludge.
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PAGE | 134
Renewables 2023 Special section: Biogas and biomethane
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Combined biogas and biomethane feedstock shares (left) and final end-use shares
(right) in selected European countries, 2021
100% 100%
% energy basis
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: MSW = municipal solid waste. CHP = combined heat and power. “Agricultural feedstocks” includes crop and plant
residues, animal manure, sequential crops and energy crops.
Sources: IEA analysis based on EBA and IEA data
In the United States, biomethane development has historically been driven by the
transport sector and support schemes such as the Renewable Fuel Standard
(RFS) and California’s Low Carbon Fuels Standard (LCFS) applicable to fuels sold
in California. The recent RFS Set Rule, released in June 2023, established specific
annual volume obligations for RNG for three years (2023-2025) that have to be
fulfilled by fuel retailers by either producing renewable fuels or buying tradable
Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) from producers. RIN credit values vary
in the market, and there are specific volume obligations for each renewable fuel
category, with biomethane being included in the D5 (advanced biofuel) or D3
(cellulosic biofuel) categories. The inclusion of a new pathway for biogas-based
electricity used in electric vehicles is under discussion.
In addition to California, other states have developed their own support schemes,
such as Washington’s Clean Fuel Standard and Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program,
to offer additional sources of income for RNG sold in the state. The United States
is currently the world’s largest user of biomethane for transportation (almost
1.4 bcm in 2021), with a 48% share of biomethane in gaseous transport fuels (98%
in California).
New policies such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed in August 2022,
provide extensive federal support for different applications, for instance through
production tax credits for new biomass gas and landfill gas facilities producing
renewable electricity; investment tax credits for biogas upgrading equipment and
qualified biogas property; and a hydrogen tax credit that includes biogas as a
feedstock for hydrogen production. Another programme that supports non-
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Special section: Biogas and biomethane
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
In the United States, the primary feedstock for biogas and biomethane production
has been landfill gas (72% of biomethane production in 2021), the lowest-cost
source for biogas. In the country with the lowest natural gas costs, other
feedstocks have traditionally been expensive. Nevertheless, new facilities are now
using mostly agricultural and animal wastes owing to strong incentives to use
farm-based feedstocks, especially in California. In fact, California is now allocating
ultra-low carbon intensity status to dairy industry projects because of their much
lower livestock methane emissions, and to swine farms as well. The share of
animal manure in RNG production in California evolved from 18% in Q1 2021 to
50% in Q2 2023.
Although biomethane production costs are usually higher than for natural gas, it
is not subject to the price volatility that natural gas suffers from, and during the
energy crisis it was valued at a lower price in Europe and Asia. Monetising climate
benefits through a carbon tax on fossil fuels can help close the price gap between
biomethane and natural gas.
60
50
Biomethane
40 cost range
30
20
10
Henry Hub - United States TTF - Europe JKM - Asia LNG spot price
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Sources: IEA analysis based on Cedigaz.and IEA data.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 136
Renewables 2023 Special section: Biogas and biomethane
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Forecast
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
European Union and United Kingdom United States China India Rest of world
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
In Europe, electricity generation has been the main impetus for biogas expansion
for the last two decades, but recent policies promote diversification of biogas uses,
utilising biomethane. Thus, the majority of growth in biogases in Europe over the
forecast period is expected to come from biomethane, from both new plants and
upgraded existing biogas plants.
In some major markets such as Germany, transport is the end use that provides
the most revenue for biomethane producers who benefit from clean-fuel
certificates for renewable fuel quotas. It is also a strong growth driver in countries
that already have gas vehicle fleets and filling stations. In addition, the European
Union has initiated the inclusion of biogas and biomethane in its Guarantee of
Origin system that industry can use to comply with the EU ETS or private
companies can utilise to achieve their own emissions reduction targets.
The RED II regulates biogas Guarantees of Origin. So far, some countries are
already keeping count with national registries and bilateral agreements that enable
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Renewables 2023 Special section: Biogas and biomethane
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Some countries are switching from fixed feed-in tariffs to tendering systems for
gas (France) or changing the conditions for electricity tenders (Germany). The
latest auctions for electricity production from biomethane in Germany in 2023 did
not received any bids. Meanwhile, France’s new auctions for gas injection have
been delayed since 2022. In Italy, however, the first auction in the new tender
scheme for injected biomethane for transport and other uses in 2023 was 45%
allocated just three months after its release, providing good prospects for 2023-
2028. In several European countries, new policies reducing remuneration remain
a forecast uncertainty as new conditions can reduce the economic attractiveness
and weaken investor confidence for biogas projects.
In its 2022 REPowerEU plan, the European Union set a non-binding target of
35 bcm of biomethane by 2030, but growth will need to accelerate to achieve this
target. Although some countries already have high shares of biomethane in their
grids (Denmark achieved a remarkable 37.9% in November 2023), others are at
earlier development stages (Belgium, Spain and Poland).
800 Denmark
France
600
Italy
400
Germany
200
EU biogas and
biomethane
0 EU target
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Part of the biomethane production increase is expected to come from the upgrade of existing biogas facilities.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 138
Renewables 2023 Special section: Biogas and biomethane
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
Current, forecast and targeted biomethane production for selected European countries,
2022-2030
250
PJ/y
200
150
100
50
The United States has further accelerated its production growth for biomethane
in the last years, prompted by new federal and state-level policy support. The new
RFS Set Rule aims to double biomethane supplies in the next three years. Given
the obligation volumes proposed, the pipeline of projects under development and
California’s targets for injected biomethane, biogas and RNG supplies combined
are expected to expand 2.1-fold in the next five years. Generous financial support
from various programmes that permit additionality provide a very favourable
framework for the accelerated growth.
In China, the government actively developed new policies in 2022 with its 14th
Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development. Although the biogas targets
of previous five-year plans for renewable energy were not achieved, revitalisation
of the sector is expected for three reasons: national and international energy
companies (PetroChina, China Three Gorges Corporation, China General Nuclear
Power Group, French company Air Liquide and German company EnviTec Biogas
AG) are beginning to invest in biogas; policy support has been strengthened; and
grid access has been improved. Nevertheless, our forecast expansion of 20% over
2023-2028 is low compared with China’s ambitious national target of 20 bcm by
2030.
India’s government has also set very ambitious targets for several biogas end
uses, including in transport, with extensive policy development to support them:
the SATAT scheme for transport and industrial fuel; the 2022 Waste to Energy
Programme to finance the recovery of urban, industrial and agricultural waste; and
the 2022 National Biogas Programme for rural and semi-urban areas.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 139
Renewables 2023 Special section: Biogas and biomethane
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
China, US and India historical and forecast production of biogases, and China’s 2030
target
1 200 000
TJ/y
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
As a drop-in substitute for natural gas, biomethane can be used employing the
same pipeline and storage infrastructure, and it can provide all the energy services
currently met by natural gas, including in hard-to-abate sectors such as heavy
industry (e.g. chemical and fertiliser production). Plus, the cost of producing
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 140
Renewables 2023 Special section: Biogas and biomethane
Analysis and forecasts to 2028
All countries thus need to make major efforts to surpass forecast biogas
production and achieve the Net Zero trajectory. China and India would have to
accelerate the development of feedstock supply chains in the agriculture, livestock
and city waste sectors and offer more attractive incentives to make biogas
production economically attractive. The development pace of critical gas grid
infrastructure and associated end-use facilities will also dictate growth.
European countries will need to intensify their efforts to ensure that incentives for
investors are still attractive in the new tendering systems, in view of incomplete
allocations in some recent auctions. Other regions with strong biogas potential,
such as Latin America and Southeast Asia, could make significant contributions
to global growth if enough public support is obtained to launch development of the
sector.
Global historical and forecast production of biogases and Net Zero Emissions Scenario
target for 2030
7 000 000
TJ/y
6 000 000
5 000 000
4 000 000
3 000 000
2 000 000
1 000 000
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: NZE = IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 141
International Energy Agency (IEA)
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necessarily reflect those of the IEA’s individual member countries or of
any particular funder or collaborator. The work does not constitute
professional advice on any specific issue or situation. The IEA makes
no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect of the
work’s contents (including its completeness or accuracy) and shall not
be responsible for any use of, or reliance on, the work.
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the
status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of
international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,
city or area.
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