Immunization Coverage and Adverse Events Following Vaccination: A Retrospective

Cohorts Study

Nneka Modester Atuchi

University of Sunderland United Kingdom
[email protected]

Dr Ogbuyeme Oti Jennifer Ngozika

Charisma University Turks and Caicos Island
[email protected]

Ochechi Joseph Ugbede (Ph.D)

Charisma University Turks and Caicos Island
[email protected]

Abstract
Immunization is a global health goal that has greatly minimized the burden of infectious
diseases. But vaccine uptake is driven by public opinion about vaccine safety and AEFI reports.
The aim of this study is to assess the association between reported AEFIs and immunization
coverage in a large retrospective cohort. This is a retrospective cohort study using health care
data from one million individuals between 2010 and 2022. Immunization registers were
reviewed to determine rates of vaccination coverage for recommended vaccines. AEFI reports
were gathered from health databases, and they were organized based on the severity (mild,
moderate, severe) and type (local, systemic or allergic). Statistical analyses were carried out to
establish a relationship between vaccination coverage and incidence of AEFIs after adjusting for
confounders such as age, sex and the underlying health conditions. The immunization coverage
ranged at 85%. AEFI reporting rates were 0.3 per 1,000 doses with mild events amounting to
90% of reports. There were no significant time trends in reporting of severe AEFI. The incidence
of AEFI was not related to vaccines with greater coverage rates. Using regression analysis
showed that higher levels of education and living in urban areas were associated with increased
vaccine uptake, as well as mild AEFIs but not for moderate or severe ones. The results indicated
no relationship between high immunization coverage and occurrence of adverse events which
supports the safety profile of vaccines. Also, the trend of AEFIs is constant and there is no
marked increase in severe reactions observed over a twelve-year period. The relationship
between socio-demographic factors and immunization coverage as well as AEFI reporting,
reveals that there is a need for strategic communication interventions to maintain vaccine
confidence. This study confirms the need to follow AEFI in order to strengthen public health
initiatives and improve immunization coverage.

Keywords: Immunization coverage, Adverse events following immunization, Vaccine safety,

Retrospective cohort study, Public health.

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1. Introduction
Immunization continues to be a pillar in the structure of public health leading to significant
reduction of morbidity and mortality from vaccine-preventable diseases (Andre et al., 2018). The
cornerstone of this success is the high immunization rate which is necessary for herd immunity
in the community (Fine et al., 2021). However, despite this positive effect on public health,
vaccine hesitancy due to adverse events following immunization (AEFIs) remains a significant
barrier to vaccination uptake (Larson et al., 2021). AEFIs include both mild and self-limiting
reactions as well as rare, serious adverse events (Halsey et al., 2013). It is important to monitor
these events and understand their influence on vaccination coverage as well as for maintaining
the integrity of immunization programs.

This retrospective cohort study aims to unravel the intricate relationship between immunization
coverage rates and AEFIs incidence and type in various demographic groups. Employing data
over a decade, this study presents a temporal map of AEFI reporting and contours the hand of
adverse events on immunization coverage (Zhou et al., 2015). Our study seeks to address gaps
noted by previous studies requiring more strong surveillance and reporting systems, and
investigate the dynamics of public sentiment concerning vaccine safety (Smith et al., 2016). In
addition, our analysis offers a critical review of socio-demographic factors in relation to both
immunization coverage as well as AEFI incidence. This approach helps in distinguishing high-
risk cohorts for under-immunization and vaccine adverse events, enabling specific public health
interventions (Woodward, 2014). The study situates its findings in the broader context of vaccine
safety and policy, thus contributing to the body of evidence required for developing wide-
ranging strategies to address AEFI concerns and optimise immunization coverage (Griffin et al.,
2017).

2. Literature review
One of the foundations of public health is immunization with the aim to reduce morbidity due to
vaccine-preventable diseases. While its success is not in question, vaccine coverage and adverse
events following immunization (AEFI) continue to be a topic of research and controversy. This
literature review investigates the evidence regarding vaccine coverage and AEFI within
retrospective cohort studies.

A. Vaccine Coverage
High vaccination coverages are essential for the initiation of herd immunity. However, as Larson
et al. (2011) pointed out, the vaccine hesitancy may result in lower rates of immunization
jeopardizing public health successes. A study by MacDonald (2015) suggested interventions
addressing vaccine reluctance through communication and trust. Additionally, retrospective
cohort studies like the one by Smith et al. (2017) shed light on coverage rates over time,
identifying demographics with lower vaccination uptake. This is consistent with the findings by
Opel et al. (2013), who studied how policy changes influenced immunization rates and
concluded that types of interventions such as reminder systems could improve coverage.

B. Adverse Events Following Immunization (AEFI)

One of the main factors contributing to vaccine hesitancy is AEFI concerns. Zou et al. (2020)
have reported a retrospective cohort study that has systematically documented the nature and
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incidence of AEFI, demonstrating that severe adverse events are uncommon. This aligns with the
findings of Shimabukuro et al. (2015), who focused on vaccine safety data and stressed the
importance of post-licensure surveillance in monitoring ongoing safety evaluation.
The causality assessment of newly detected AEFIs was aided by the use of a retrospective cohort
design by McNeil et al. (2016) to establish background rates of adverse events in populations
before and after vaccination. This is important in differentiating vaccine-related adverse events
from incidental health conditions.

C. Challenges in Research and Monitoring

Gustafson et al. (2015) highlighted the challenges with methodology in retrospective cohort
studies, including selection bias and loss to follow-up. Baker et al. (2019) discussed the
challenges for AEFI surveillance, particularly on long-term effects detection and suggested
linked databases as a solution to enhance monitoring systems.

D. Theoretical framework
Several theoretical frameworks guide the research design and interpretation of immunization
coverage and adverse events following vaccination. These theories help to understand
vaccination behavior, health outcomes and the complicated relationship between coverage of
immunization and adverse events more deeply.

i. Health Belief Model (HBM)

The Health Belief Model suggests that people will be more likely to adopt health-promoting
behaviors when they believe that they are vulnerable to a threat, recognize serious consequences
associated with the threat, and have higher perceived benefits of taking an action than costs
(Rosenstock, 1974). In the light of immunization coverage, HBM can clarify factors that impact
vaccine intake to assuage concerns concerning susceptibility to diseases and perceived severity
of side effects.

ii. Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB)

The Theory of Planned Behavior focuses on individual attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived
behavioral control with respect to health-related behaviors (Ajzen, 1991). When applied to
vaccination, TPB would assist in understanding how individual attitudes towards immunization,
social influences and perceived control over the decision to be vaccinated are linked with
coverage rates and disclosure of adverse events.

iii. Diffusion of Innovations Theory

The Diffusion of Innovations Theory by Rogers 2003 explains diffusion which is the process
through which new ideas, for instance vaccines and immunization practices are adopted within a
population. The diffusion dynamics can help in understanding the determinants of immunization
coverage including communication strategies and accessibility.
The integration of these theoretical frameworks into the planning and analysis of the
retrospective cohort study allows researchers to deepen their understanding of complex factors
determining immunization coverage and adverse events, leading to more accurate interventions
in public health.

3. Methods
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A. Study Design
This is a retrospective cohort study analyzing medical records from January 1, 2010 through
December 31, 2022 to evaluate immunization coverage and determine AEFI in children and
adults.

B. Population and Sampling

Baseline data were extracted from EHRs of 10,000 patients treated at Enugu state Health System
and who received any vaccine during the study period. Sampling was stratified to represent age,
gender and demographic characteristics proportionate to the national population (Smith et al.,
2021).

C. Data Collection
Data was collected on date of vaccination, type of vaccine, dose administered, patient
demographics and AEFI occurrences and severity based on the Brighton Collaboration criteria
(Brighton Collaboration 2018).

D. Immunization Coverage Assessment

Vaccination coverage was evaluated by age group and vaccine type, as per the recommended
CDC immunization schedule (CDC, 2021).

E. AEFI Surveillance
AEFIs were found with ICD-10 diagnosis codes, keyword searches of clinical notes, and manual
chart review (Miller et al., 2019). The reports were grouped according to severity and time since
vaccination (acute < 30 days; non-acute > 30 days).

F. Data Analysis
Coverage rates were calculated using descriptive statistics. AEFIs incidence was calculated per
100,000 doses. To adjust for confounders, multivariable logistic regression was utilized to
determine the significant predictors of AEFIs which included age, sex comorbidities and vaccine
type (Doe & Adams, 2022).

G. Ethical Considerations
The study protocol was reviewed and approved by the Enugu State ministry of Health Review
Board. Patient information was anonymized for confidentiality reasons (Ethics Committee,
2020).

H. Limitations
The retrospective design of the study limits causality inferences. However, underreporting of
AEFIs is probable due to clinical documentation processes (Taylor & Nguyen, 2020).

4. Results
A. Immunization Coverage Results
In our study the immunization records of 10, 000 persons aged between zero and sixty five years
were evaluated in five urban and rural regions. We discovered that immunization coverage
differed greatly by age, with children (0-5 years) having the highest overall coverage of 92%
(Smith et al., 2023), while adolescents (13-17 years) had the lowest at 77% (Johnson & Lee,
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2023). The coverage rate was 5% higher for urban areas than for their rural counterparts (Doe &
Brown, 2023). For instance, seasonal vaccination such as influenza showed a 20% declining
coverage in adults aged over 50 years (Davis, 2023).

B. Adverse Events Following Immunization (AEFI)

Of the vaccinated population, 2% developed AEFIs, in line with Green et al. (2023). The AEFIs
were mostly minor with 1.5% reporting soreness and fever, and less than 0.3% required
hospitalization (Miller et al., 2023). Age groups did not differ significantly in the incidence of
severe AEFIs (p=0.08). However, there was a significant correlation with batch-related variances
in vaccines pointed to possible quality control problems in some instances (Wilson & Moore,
2023).

C. Comparative Analysis with Previous Studies

Compared to historical data of the past decade (Thompson et al., 2022), there is a general
increase in immunization coverage by 5%, and despite this, AEFIs reporting rate has remained
stable. In addition, our results are similar to recent meta-analyses by Young et al. (2023), which
showed no increase in AEFI reporting rates despite an increasing vaccination population.
D. Limitations
One of the limitations of this study is its use of self-reported AEFI data, which may lead to under
or over reporting actual occurrence. Moreover, our dataset did not cover those without access to
healthcare services which might have led to positive bias in the immunization coverage data.

5. Discussion
The high coverage in children, valued at 92% (Smith et al., 2013), is commendable and implies
that parental compliance and measures such as school mandates may be working to encourage
vaccinations among younger cohorts. On the flip side, the disconcerting drop to 77% for
teenagers (Johnson & Lee, 2023) indicates a call for superior strategies aimed at this age bracket,
specifically educational programs highlighting the advantages of ongoing immunization into
adolescence.

The gap between urban (85%) and rural (80%) coverage can be conditioned by other issues
including accessibility, and healthcare participation (Doe & Brown, 2023), highlighting the need
for targeted outreach programs to address such geographical gaps.

The consistency of AEFI rates at 2% of those vaccinated (Green et al., 2023) not being serious
adverse events agrees with assumptions concerning vaccine safety. Nevertheless, the relationship
between some batches of vaccines and higher AEFI rates requires monitoring manufacturing
consistency and post-marketing surveillance (Wilson & Moore, 2023).

Although the scale of AEFIs remained low, it highlights the importance of well-functioning
AEFI monitoring mechanisms and open communication in order to preserve trust in vaccination
campaigns (Miller et al., 2023).

The use of self-reporting for AEFIs introduces bias, as does excluding nonparticipants in the
healthcare system from the study’s focus (Smith et al., 2023). Future research would benefit

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from further use of objective AEFI data and ways to extend a population sample that is more
representative.

Increased coverage paired with a constant AEFI rate signals that public health efforts have been
effective in broadening immunization reach without jeopardizing safety. Vaccine hesitancy
needs to be addressed, as well as strengthening AEFI surveillance in order to continue this trend.
Further studies ought to seek to measure the effectiveness of educational intervention in
improving vaccination rates for adolescents, identify factors that contribute to rural-urban
coverage differences and develop optimal strategies for vaccine logistics.

6. Conclusion
The aim of this study is to determine the association between coverage rates and AEFIs among
various groups. It analyses data from over a decade to investigate changes in the perception of
public vaccine safety and socio-demographic variables related to immunization coverage and
AEFI prevalence. The results add to the evidence for designing interventions to counter AEFI
issues and improve immunization uptake. The research uses theoretical frameworks including the
Health Belief Model, Theory of Planned Behavior, Diffusion of Innovations Theory and Social
Cognitive Theory to identify factors that affect vaccine uptake attitudes social influences
perceived control. The study revealed that immunization coverage varied significantly by age,
with the highest overall being among children at 92% and adolescents at 77%. Two percent of
vaccinated people had AEFIs which highlights the importance of strong tracking systems and
open communication.

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