Colorado River Upper Division State Representa�ves of

Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming

March 5, 2024

The Honorable Camille Touton

VIA ELECTRONIC MAIL

Dear Commissioner Touton:

The undersigned Governor Representatives for the Upper Division States (UDS) submit the
following Upper Division States’ Alternative (UDS Alternative). We request that the Bureau of
Reclamation (Reclamation) evaluate the UDS Alternative in conjunction with its June 16, 2023,
Notice of Intent to “Prepare an Environmental Impact Statement for Development of Post-2026
Operational Guidelines and Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead,” 88 FR 3945 (Notice), and
its October 20, 2023 Notice of Availability for the “Colorado River Reservoir Operations:
Development of Post-2026 Operational Guidelines and Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake
Mead,” 88 FR 72535 (Scoping Summary Report).
We submit this UDS Alternative as a set of modeling assumptions and operating parameters. This
is an effective alternative to sustain Lake Powell and Lake Mead into the future. We request that
this submittal be considered and evaluated as an alternative for the Post-2026 Operational
Guidelines (Post-2026 Operations) NEPA process. This UDS Alternative meets Reclamation’s
preliminary assessment of the purpose and need described in the Scoping Summary Report and
broadly aims to describe the coordinated operation of Lake Powell and Lake Mead in a manner
that: (1) Is consistent with the Law of the River; (2) Reduces the risks caused by depleted storage
in Lake Powell and Lake Mead; (3) Reflects the best available science and information including
impacts caused by climate change; (4) Addresses the existing imbalance between water supply and
demands in the Basin which depend on storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead; (5) Operates Lake
1
Powell and Lake Mead based on observed conditions instead of projected conditions; (6) Accounts
for hydrologic shortages in the Upper Basin. The UDS also acknowledge settled but undeveloped
Tribal water rights in the Upper Basin although those are not specifically described in the UDS
Alternative.
Modeling assumptions for the UDS Alternative include the following key parameters for
operations at Lakes Powell and Mead:

1) CRSS Model Version. The August release of CRSS v.6 with November 2023 initial
conditions has been used to develop the UDS Alternative. This version of CRSS
incorporates:
a. Upper Basin current and future water uses based on the Updated 2016 Upper
Division States Depletion Demand Schedule (June 2022) and estimated Upper
Basin hydrologic shortages; and
b. Lower Basin water uses as characterized in the model.

2) Combined Storage Trigger (Trigger). The purpose of the Trigger described in this section
is to determine reductions in modeled Lower Basin water use. The UDS Alternative
includes a calculation of a Combined Storage Trigger for Lake Powell and Lake Mead on
October 1. The Trigger is calculated using Lake Powell and Lake Mead’s Storage volume
(live storage below flood control elevations) by subtracting a threshold volume from the
total live storage. The threshold volume for Lake Powell is 4.2 MAF. The threshold volume
for Lake Mead is 4.5 MAF. The threshold volume for the two reservoirs combined is 8.7
MAF. The UDS Alternative does not explicitly protect any reservoir elevations and is
agnostic as to how modeled reductions are attributed below Lee Ferry. The calculation of
the Trigger is as follows:

𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 − 𝑇𝑇ℎ𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉

Lake Powell Operations

The UDS Alternative includes the Lake Powell release curve as described in the table below based
on observed conditions at the start of the Water Year beginning on October 1.

2
 Lake Powell Lake Powell Percent Lake Powell
Elevation (October 1) Full (live storage) Water Year Release

> 3,700’ 100% As required by dam safety regulations

3,670’ - 3,700’ 81% – 100% Linear Rule Curve - 8.1 - 9.0 MAFY

3,510’ - 3,670’ 20% – 81% Linear Rule Curve - 6.0 - 8.1 MAFY

< 3,510’ < 20% 6.0 MAFY

Lake Mead Operations

Lake Mead operations are adapted from a concept first proposed by the Lower Division States.
The reduction curve described below identifies water use reductions as a function of the Trigger.
All reductions are assumed to be applied to Lower Basin mainstem consumptive use of 7.5 MAFY,
defined as diversions from the mainstem minus return flows. The operating year reductions are
determined based on the October 1 Trigger each year. Based on the Trigger values below, this
reduction curve results in the following volumes being unavailable for release from Lake Mead or
for delivery in the Lower Basin.
Lower Basin
October 1 Trigger Reductions Description
> 90% 0 MAFY No Lower Basin Reductions
Lower Basin Reductions linearly increase up to
90% - 70% 0 – 1.5 MAFY a maximum of 1.5 MAFY
Lower Basin 1.5 MAFY Reduction remains
70% - 20% 1.5 MAFY static
In addition to the static 1.5 MAFY Reductions,
Lower Basin Reductions linearly increase up to
20% - 0% > 1.5 MAFY an additional 2.4 MAFY

No Action Alternative

As of the date of this submittal, Reclamation has not disclosed the No Action Alternative for this
EIS. The No Action Alternative must acknowledge that, upon expiration of the 2007 Interim
Guidelines, the operating criteria for Lake Powell and Lake Mead will revert to the Long-Range
Operating Criteria (LROC) used to model baseline conditions in the Final Environmental Impact
Statement for the Interim Surplus Guidelines dated December 2000. However, details regarding
potential implementation of the LROC are unclear. We request that the Secretary consult with the
Basin States for input on the development of the No Action Alternative.

3
Term of Post-2026 Operations

The Post-2026 Operations must be interim in duration. In the Notice, Reclamation states that the
Post-2026 Operations will be approximately twenty years in duration. However, due to uncertain
future hydrologic conditions, and the uncertainty of future actions, the UDS assert that a shorter
interim period may be warranted.

Hydrologic Shortages

The water supply available to the UDS is uncertain every year due to hydrologic variability. UDS
water users are subject to hydrologic shortages each year which are involuntary reductions in
consumptive water use due to the lack of physical and legal availability of water. As the water
available is uncertain each year, the volume of water that can be derived from Parallel Activities
defined below is limited.

Parallel Activities

In the event that this UDS Alternative is adopted, the UDS will undertake parallel but separate
activities that are not a part of this federal action or part of the UDS Alternative. Parallel
activities refer to actions in the Upper Basin that are beyond the scope of the Post-2026 Operations,
but may complement those operations.

The UDS will take additional actions to help preserve the ability to release water from Lake Powell
including potential releases of water from CRSPA Upstream Initial Units (Flaming Gorge,
Aspinall, Navajo). Any releases from the CRSPA Upstream Initial Units to help maintain Lake
Powell releases must occur within existing authorities, will take place outside of this NEPA process
and will be subject to separate criteria.

The UDS will also pursue voluntary, temporary, and compensated reductions of consumptive use.
Conserved volumes will vary based on multiple factors, including hydrologic conditions.
Temporary conservation would occur without impairing the right to exercise existing water rights.
Conserved water would be credited to, and be available for, the benefit of the UDS, including
helping to maintain Lake Powell releases under certain conditions. These activities may also
provide benefits for environmental resources.

Continued Collaboration

Since Reclamation issued the Notice on June 16, 2023, the seven Basin States have consulted
among themselves and with Reclamation to explore potential Post-2026 Operations for Lake
Powell and Lake Mead, together with potential parallel activities. The UDS have also engaged
with Upper Basin Tribes, water users, and non-governmental organizations on these topics. While
we are submitting this UDS Alternative as four states, we recognize the value of Basin-wide
collaboration in order to achieve the flexibility and innovation needed in the face of an uncertain

4
future. Accordingly, we welcome future opportunities to explore a seven-state consensus
alternative.

Reservation of Rights

Operations proposed under this UDS Alternative do not represent interpretations of existing law
by the undersigned. The UDS expressly reserve their rights under applicable law, including, but
not limited to the Law of the River. Nothing in this submittal is intended, nor shall be construed,
to interpret, diminish, or modify the rights of the UDS or the Upper Colorado River Commission
(UCRC) under federal or state law or administrative rule, regulation, or guideline. This submittal
is not intended to be, and shall not be construed in any way as, a waiver of any such rights.
Moreover, we reserve the right to provide further comments, consult with the Secretary, take any
other necessary steps, and engage with Reclamation as it proceeds with subsequent phases of the
Post-2026 Operations NEPA process.

Conclusion

The UDS Alternative protects Lake Powell storage for the benefit of both the Upper and Lower
Basins, mitigates the risk of either Lake Powell or Lake Mead reaching dead pool, and is consistent
with the Law of the River.

We ask that Reclamation advance this UDS Alternative through the NEPA process and that
Reclamation model and evaluate the impacts of this Alternative in its Draft Environmental Impact
Statement for Post-2026 Operations. The UDS are willing to work with Reclamation to optimize
the UDS Alternative in order to facilitate Reclamation’s development of a preferred alternative.

Sincerely,

Rebecca Mitchell Gene Shawcroft

Estevan Lopez Brandon Gebhart