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Training2022 - VRE Utilization in Power Grids - Final
Training2022 - VRE Utilization in Power Grids - Final
WIJARN WANGDEE
Center of Excellence in Electrical Power Technology (CEPT)
Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University
March 2022
Course Content
Chapter 1: Renewable Energy (RE) Overview
RE Technologies
RE Portfolio in Germany vs. Thailand
Variable RE (VRE) Properties
Chapter 2: High VRE from Reliability Perspectives
Uncertainty in Power Grid
High VRE Required Probabilistic Analysis
Capacity Credit (Equivalent Firm Capacity) for VRE
Generation & Transmission Adequacy for VRE
Items Required for Value-Based Reliability Analysis
Chapter 3: Power Grid Flexibility for VRE
Impact of Variability & Uncertainty
Need for Grid Flexibility
Increase in Grid Flexibility
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Chapter 1
Chapter 1: Renewable Energy (RE) Overview
RE Technologies
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
RE Technologies
Relatively Firm
(except some marine)
Relatively Non-Firm
(Variable Renewable Energy)
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
RE Technologies : Solar Energy
Sun Radiation for Power Generation
There are two types of solar radiation:
Direct radiation: Solar radiation traveling on a straight
line from the sun down to the surface of the earth.
Diffuse radiation: Scattered radiation by molecules
and particles in the atmosphere but still reaches
earth's surface.
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Solar Dish
Fresnel Reflector
Parabolic Trough
Solar Tower
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Stand-Alone CSP
RE Technologies : PV
Timeline of Four Generations of
Solar PV Cells
1st Gen: based on crystalline silicon
technologies (mono- & poly-)
2nd Gen: amorphous silicon (a-Si), μc-
Si thin films, cadmium telluride (CdTe),
cadmium sulfide (CdS) and copper
indium gallium selenide (CIGS)
3rd Gen: based on new compounds
including nanocrystalline films, tandem or
stacked PV, organic (polymer)-based,
dyed-sensitized solar cells (DSSC)
4th Gen: known as “inorganics-in-
organics” combining the low cost/flexible
polymer thin films with the stability of
novel inorganic nanostructures or
organic-based nanomaterials such as
carbon nanotubes, graphene, etc.
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
RE Technologies : Solar PV
Crystalline Si takes 40 years to double its efficiency, while Perovskite takes 5 years to do so!!
In 2020,
SwiftSolar puts
perovskite
(attracting
blue light) on
the top of
standard Si cell
(attracting red
light) as a
multi‐layer PV
cell to improve
an efficiency
up to 28%.
(Source: https://www.ossila.com/pages/perovskites-and-perovskite-solar-cells-an-introduction)
Trending
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
RE Technologies : Solar PV
Widely Used Solar PV Cells
Thin Film Si
Thin Film Si
Mono c-Si
Mono c-Si
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
RE Technologies : Solar PV
Newer Types of Concentrating PV
(for direct sunlight)
Solar PV Cells
CIGS
17
(Source: Amornrat Limmanee, 2015)
RE Technologies : Solar PV
PV Cell Efficiency vs. Cost
18
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE NOTE: Old information (before 2015)
RE Technologies : Solar PV
Worldwide Solar Energy Costs Compared to Other Generation Sources
19
(Source: https://www.dw.com/en/desert-large-solar-plants-also-pay-off-in-countries-with-less-sun/a-58284114)
RE Technologies : Solar PV
Price Learning Curve
of Solar PV Module
2006 was the end of
628 GWp (2019 end)
2016 76 0.37
2017 105 0.35
2018 109 0.25
2019 105 0.23
2020 128 0.21 (Source: ITRPV, 2021)
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
RE Technologies : Solar PV
Trending Cost of Solar PV vs Battery (EV)
Falling battery prices (improving battery range) is
the biggest drivers of EV.
Cheap “Solar PV + Battery” : What does it mean?
Battery cost
Solar PV cost
RE Technologies : Solar PV
Different Grid-Connected PV Inverter Structures
a) Module
Inverter
b) String
Inverter
c) Multi-String
Inverter
d) Central
Inverter
22
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: O.E.K. Onwunta, 2014)
RE Technologies : Solar PV
Different Grid-Connected PV Inverter Structures
Structure Advantages Disadvantages
Module ⁻ Maximizing power production (no mismatch losses) ⁻ Low power ratings of PV modules
Inverter due to the use of single solar panel with its own ⁻ High cost per watt
inverter and MPPT control ⁻ Lifetime of an inverter smaller than a PV module
String ⁻ Individual MPPT for each string --> independent ⁻ Higher cost per watt compared to central inverter
Inverter ⁻ Improved system reliability (one inverter/string) structure
⁻ Flexible to build with different orientations & no. of
PV modules for each string
Multi-String ⁻ Combining the advantages of both string-inverters ⁻ Two-stage system composed by more than one
Inverter (high power due to individual MPPT control) and DC-DC stage
central-inverters (low cost). ⁻ Higher cost per watt compared to central inverter
⁻ Flexible solution due to individually controlled of structure
each PV string
Central ⁻ Typically, most widely use for large-scale PV. ⁻ Need for high DC-link voltage (550–850V) & very
Inverter ⁻ High efficiency (low losses in a conversion stage) long DC cables (between PV strings to inverter)
⁻ Low cost due to the use of only one inverter ⁻ Entire system reliability depends on only one
inverter
(Source: O.E.K. Onwunta, 2014) 23
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
RE Technologies : Solar PV
Solar PV Cell Interconnection
Case: identical PV cells
24
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: Raeey A. Regassa, 2017)
RE Technologies : Solar PV
Solar PV Cell Interconnection (Case: non-identical PV cells)
25
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: Raeey A. Regassa, 2017)
RE Technologies : Solar PV
Partial Shading Effect on V-I Curve
Case: without bypass diode
26
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: Raeey A. Regassa, 2017)
RE Technologies : Solar PV
V-I Characteristic Curve of a PV Panel
Effects of Ambient Temperature and Solar Irradiation
RE Technologies : Solar PV
Effect of Temperature on V-I Characteristic of Solar PV
Efficiency of solar PV reduces by 1% for every 2.5 °C increase in ambient temp. (vice versa)
(Source: K. Lappalainen, 2017)
NOTE: Rated values at 25 °C. The irradiance on the surface of the cell is 1000 W/m2.
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
RE Technologies : Solar PV
Power Output of a PV Panel with Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT)
Effects of Ambient Temperature and Solar Irradiation
RE Technologies : Solar PV
Power Output of a PV Panel with Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT)
Some more details about MPPT (Perturb & Observe Method)
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
RE Technologies : Solar PV
Power Output of a PV Panel with Single- and Dual-Axis Tracking Systems
(Source: https://jaizianenergy.com/products/)
31
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: http://apdico.net/solar_power)
RE Technologies : Solar PV
Solar PV Output Depends on:
Orientation
Tilt
Tracking
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
RE Technologies : Solar PV
(Source: O.E.K. Onwunta, 2014)
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: Ghaeth Fandi, 2017)
RE Technologies : Wind Power
Relationship between Wind
Turbine Output Power and
Respective Diameters
If a rotor diameter is doubled, a
swept area will increase by four
times (𝐴 𝜋𝑟 ).
Wind speed (𝑣) depends on the
height (H), i.e. 𝑣 𝑣 .
Power output:
Where:
α = terrain friction (≈1/7), ρ = air density
Cp = Coefficient performance (<0.59)
39
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: O.E.K. Onwunta, 2014)
42
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: M.G. Molina, 2011)
RE Technologies : Wind Power
Wind Turbine Type 3 : Doubly-Fed Induction Generator (DFIG)
This type is a variable speed wind turbine system with a DFIG. The power electronic
converter feeding the rotor winding has a power rating of approximately up to 30% of the
rated power; the stator winding of the DFIG is directly connected to the grid.
However, its main drawbacks are the use
of slip rings, which needs brushes and
maintenance, and the complex protection
schemes in the case of grid faults.
The greatest advantage of the DFIG is that it
offers the benefits of separate real and reactive
power control, much like a traditional synchronous
generator, while being able to run asynchronously.
Such control makes the rotor flux response fast
enough to remain stable during severe grid
disturbances.
43
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: M.G. Molina, 2011)
45
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-consumption-and-power-mix-charts)
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
RE Portfolio in Germany vs. Thailand
RE Geographical Development in Germany
47
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
RE Portfolio in Germany vs. Thailand
Renewable Energy Outlook: Thailand
(Source: กรมพัฒนาพลังงานทดแทนและอนุ รก
ั ษ์พลังงาน (พพ.) กระทรวงพลังงาน, https://www.dede.go.th/download/stat63/Fiscal_Year_renewabel_Energy_October_2564.pdf)
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
RE Portfolio in Germany vs. Thailand
Solar PV Comparison: Thailand vs. Germany
(Source: http://globalsolaratlas.info)
“Dynamics”
(Automation)
Resource Adequacy
Unit Commitment
Economic Dispatch
Frequency Regulation
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Variable RE (VRE) Properties
VRE Properties : Technical Challenges for VRE Integration
Non-synchronous: power electronics interfaced, which decouple their frequency and
voltage from the grid, and therefore lead to different dynamic response to disturbances, i.e.
inertial, short circuit current, etc.
Location: system constrained by the availability of VRE in the area. Modularity implies to
VRE being deployed at very small scales and rapidly in distribution grids.
Uncertainty: related to their generation, or the unexpected change in their power output
compared to forecasted values.
Variability: the expected change in power output due to variability in the available primary
resource (solar irradiation or wind speed) occurring over time.
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56
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: IRENA, 2017b)
Variable RE (VRE) Properties
Planning Solutions for VRE Integration (System Properties)
Planning for Firm Capacity: VRE makes the concept of "capacity credit", known as "firm
capacity". Essential for generation resource planning to have sufficient supplies to cover
periods when low amounts of VRE are available. The concept of Effective Load Carrying
Capability (ELCC) based on reliability analysis is widely used to estimate "capacity credit".
Planning for Flexibility: the higher VRE, the greater variability and uncertainly of supply.
Thus, the flexibility of a system becomes more important. High shares of VRE are likely to
require more investment in flexibility measures to maintain balance at all times.
Planning for Transmission Capacity: the availability of VRE resources depends on their
location, and new capacity may need to be planned to transmit power from VRE sources.
Planning for Stability: improving operational practices (frequency and voltage responses)
to maintain the capability to respond to contingency events.
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Firm
Capacity
Flexibility
Transmission
Capacity
Stability
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Chapter 2
Chapter 2: High VRE from Reliability Perspectives
Uncertainty in Power Grids
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Uncertainty in Power Grids
Reliability Study
Consideration
Hierarchical Level I (HL-I)
involves the total generation
to meet the total load.
Hierarchical Level II (HL-II)
involves the generation and
transmission facilities to deliver
power to supply points.
Hierarchical Level III (HL-III)
involves the complete system.
(In practice, HL-II and distribution
system are separately analyzed.)
Reliability
Adequacy Security
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Epistemic Uncertainty 64
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Uncertainty in Power Grids
Uncertainties in Power Grid for the Challenging New Days (Future)
Even higher aleatory uncertainty, but much more epistemic uncertainty
“Net” loads (DGs embedded) & high portion of variable RE cause more fluctuations.
Aleatory Uncertainty
Epistemic Uncertainty
+ Aleatory Uncertainty
Forecast
Center
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When variable generation (wind, solar, etc.) and DGs are greatly penetrated into
power systems, probabilistic methods becomes much more important for both
planning & operation applications to handle large variability and uncertainty factors.
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High VRE Required Probabilistic Analysis
Reliability Criteria Applied to Power Power Grids: Deterministic vs. Probabilistic
Examples of Deterministic Criteria:
A fixed percentage of reserve margin
in planning (i.e. 15%)
Spinning reserve = a largest online
generator capacity
N-1 criterion
n
LOLE pk tk (Loss of Load Expectation)
k 1
n
LOEE pk Ek (Loss of Energy Expectation)
k 1
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
High VRE Required Probabilistic Analysis
VRE Modelling: Solar PV and Wind Power Output “Duration Curves”
Non-chronological plot in descending order (from max to min)
Be Careful !!! that these plots CANNOT
directly use to subtract from the native
(original) “load duration curve” to obtain
the “net load” duration curve (due to non-
chronological characteristic).
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Wind Turbine
Power Curve
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
High VRE Required Probabilistic Analysis
VRE Modelling: Actual Wind Power Curve (A Wind Turbine & A Wind Farm)
Zone 1 is caused by shade effect. Zone 2 is abnormal working states (pitch control
misoperation). Zones 3 & 4 are affected by quality of data; sensor, commu. link, etc.
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
0.04
Probability
40
(km /h)
0.03 30
0.02 20
0.01 10
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 1 25 49 73 97 121 145
Wind Speed (m/s) Hour
Power Output
0.8 0.8
(p.u.)
(p.u.)
0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
0 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 0 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Wind Speed (m/s) Wind Speed (m/s)
(Source: Wijarn Wangdee, 2009)
40
Probability
0.15
30
(M W )
0.10
20
0.05 10
0.00 0
0
48
192
418
734
1077
1385
1551
1600
1 25 49 73 97 121 145
MW Time (hour)
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
High VRE Required Probabilistic Analysis
VRE Modelling: Diversity in Solar Power for Geographically Dispersed Locations
19 sites across Georgia State (>3 times smaller in size compared to Thailand)
Red curves = hourly data, while black curves = minute-resolution data
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
High VRE Required Probabilistic Analysis
Correlation of Solar Irradiances vs. Distance between Them (km)
Greater Geographical Diversity = Less Correlation (between sources) Better System Reliability
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
High VRE Required Probabilistic Analysis
VRE Modelling: Wind Speed Correlations (Geographical Diversity)
High correlation (less independent):
two wind farms are located very
close to each other. (Source: Wijarn Wangdee, 2006)
P(0) = 0.25 Mean= 9.59 MW Mean= 9.75 MW
Median= 4.58 MW Median= 5.36 MW
P(0)= 0.19
S.D.= 11.68 MW S.D.= 11.23 MW
P(0)= 0.14
Mean= 9.53 MW
P(0)= 0.12 Median= 6.00 MW
0.3 S.D.= 10.15 MW
P(0) = 0.10
0.25 Rxy = 0.94
Probability
0.2 Rxy = 0.75
2.5 0.8
LOLF (occ./yr.)
LOLE (hrs./yr.)
2.0 0.6
0.0 0.0
0.94 0.75 0.48 0.25 0.05 0.94 0.75 0.48 0.25 0.05
Cross-correlation (Rxy) Cross-correlation (Rxy)
(Source: Wijarn Wangdee, 2006)
10028
10078
10128
10178
10228
10278
10328
10378
9878
9928
9978
Calculation:
To determine capacity 6.00
1.00
Peace Region wind power output (winter)
0.20
Capacity Factor = 0.33
0.00
Probability
0.15
0.10 ELCC = 321 MW
0.05
(Source: Wijarn Wangdee, 2009)
0.00
SI = Severity Index (system.minutes)
0
48
192
418
734
1077
1385
1551
1600
50% 50%
ELCC(LOLF) ELCC(LOLF)
installed WECS
installed WECS
40% 40%
ELCC in % of
ELCC(LOLE)
ELCC in % of
ELCC(LOLE)
30% 30%
20% 20%
10% 10%
Regina site Swift Current site
0% 0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Wind power penetration (%) Wind power penetration (%)
(Source: Wijarn Wangdee, 2006)
Production variability
Statistically, the possibility of low production during a peak load event reduces the
value of a resource.
Reliability target
Effective capacity does not have linear relationship with system LOLE.
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Capacity Credit (Equivalent Firm Capacity) for VRE
Example of ELCC Calculation for “High Load Weekday in August”
Within each bin, choose each (load, wind, and solar) daily profile randomly, and
independent of other daily profiles
89
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: Ame Olson, 2015)
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Capacity Credit (Equivalent Firm Capacity) for VRE
Example of ELCC Calculation for “High Load in August” & “Entire Year”
(Source: Ame Olson, 2015)
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Capacity Credit (Equivalent Firm Capacity) for VRE
Example of ELCC Calculation for “Seasons” & “Entire Year” (Source: Ame Olson, 2015)
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
addition of VRE
capacities (convention
generations and load are
kept the same for all
cases) would decrease
the LOLE of the system.
However, the lower
marginal decrease can
be clearly observed at
higher penetrations
(saturation effect).
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Capacity Credit (Equivalent Firm Capacity) for VRE
ELCC of PV Translated to Peak Load Reduction = Capacity Credit
Figure illustrates how PV can reduce the net load by generating electricity during the hours
of peak demand (typically 4 to 6 pm).
This results in a
capacity credit; the
ability of PV to
replace conventional
generation.
However, the figure
also shows how the
capacity credit of PV
can decrease as PV
penetration increases.
(Source: Paul Denholm, 2016)
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Capacity Credit (Equivalent Firm Capacity) for VRE
Wind Power Capacity Credit Reduces with Increase in Wind Power Penetration
Meaning that every
MW of new wind
plant will replace
less conventional
generation capacity.
Capacity credit is
quantified by
determining the
capacity of
conventional plants
displaced by wind
power while
maintaining the (Source: EWEA, 2010)
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Capacity Credit (Equivalent Firm Capacity) for VRE
Illustration of Reliability Values (ELCC) of Different Resources (ERCOT in US)
Reliability value (%) for different resources with factors considered in their reliability values.
321 321
Wind power installed capacity of 1600 MW is equivalent to ELCC of 321 MW (no storage consideration)
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Capacity Credit (Equivalent Firm Capacity) for VRE
Increase Capacity Credit (ELCC) of Solar PV by Adding Energy Storage
103
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: Andrew D. Mills, 2020)
104
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: Paul Denholm, 2018)
Capacity Credit (Equivalent Firm Capacity) for VRE
ELCC Captures Saturation Effects at Increasing Solar and Storage Penetrations
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Capacity Credit (Equivalent Firm Capacity) for VRE
Diversity Benefit (ELCC Increase) by Interactive Effect of “Solar + Storage”
107
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: Direct Testimony of Nick Schlag in Nevada Public Utilities Commission Docket 20-07023, 2020)
Capacity value of storage with increasing penetration Resource variability requires an improved forecasting
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Capacity Credit for VRE: Adequacy vs. Security
Security Constrained Adequacy Evaluation System Well-Being Analysis
“It is difficult if not impossible to determine where you want to go if you do not know where you have been.”
– Dr. Roy Billinton, Canada
110
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: Wijarn Wangdee, 2012)
Capacity Credit for VRE: Adequacy vs. Security
Security Constrained Adequacy Evaluation System Well-Being Analysis
(Source: Wijarn Wangdee, 2012)
RBTS
Security‐Based Contribution
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Capacity Credit for VRE: Adequacy vs. Security
“Adequacy-based ELCC” vs. “Security-based ELCC” for IEEE-RTS (large system)
Adequacy‐Based Contribution
Adequacy contribution dominates the
security contribution at low wind penetration.
However, adequacy contribution declines
while the security contribution increases at
high wind penetration.
Security‐Based Contribution
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
0.04
(Wind Power Modelling Required)
Probability
0.03
0.02
Wind speed time series 0.01
0
Probability distribution of wind speed 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Wind Speed (m/s)
Power Output
0.8
(p.u.)
0.6
0.4
25 Mean(x) = 7.4 m/s, Mean(y) = 8.8 m/s, Cross Correlation in December = 0.64 0.2
Bear Mountain Area (x) 0.0
Wind Speed (m/s)
10
Peace Region wind power output (winter)
0.20
5 Capacity Factor = 0.33
Probability
0.15
0
0.10
Dec.01
Dec.02
Dec.03
Dec.05
Dec.06
Dec.08
Dec.09
Dec.11
Dec.12
Dec.13
Dec.15
Dec.16
Dec.18
Dec.19
Dec.21
Dec.22
Dec.24
Dec.25
Dec.26
Dec.28
Dec.29
Dec.31
0.05
48
192
418
734
1077
1385
1551
1600
(Source: Wijarn Wangdee, 2009)
MW 115
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
10078
10128
10178
10228
10278
10328
10378
9878
9928
9978
6.00
Severity Index (sys.mins)
10199 MW
5.00 Base Case (No Generation Addition)
4.00 Adding 1600 MW Wind Power
3.00
2.00 Specified reliability level
1.00
0.00
ELCC = 321 MW
116
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: Wijarn Wangdee, 2009)
Generation & Transmission Adequacy for VRE
Transmission Capacity Requirement : Transmission Adequacy
Using deterministic N-1 planning criterion, but augmented by a probabilistic method.
Using ELCC value (or higher) as an equivalent
conventional generation, and then gradually
increase transfer capability until the reliability
is no longer changed.
1.40
Severity Index (sys.mins)
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00 Base Case (no generation and load added)
0.90 Load plus ELCC, adding 1600 MW wind
0.80 Load plus ELCC, adding 340 MW hydro
0.70
0 340 680 1020 1600
Increased TC (MW)
117
INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: Wijarn Wangdee, 2009)
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: Wijarn Wangdee, 2009)
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Items Required for Value-Based Reliability Analysis
Reliability Database Management System (RDMS) @ BC Hydro
Control Room Operating Window (CROW):
feeding the outage information commented by
system operators, i.e. start/restored times,
no.of customers affected, causes of failure, etc.
Portal Data Warehouse (PDW): providing asset
information, i.e. name, type, vendor, ISD, etc.
E-meter and Plant Information (PI): providing
substation load curve (from SCADA/EMS).
Site Information System (SIS): providing single-
line diagrams for substations and networks.
Delivery Point (DP) model, equipment model,
and load curve model are needed for calculating
reliability indices. (Source: Wenyuan Li, 2007)
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Items Required for Value-Based Reliability Analysis
Analysis Tools: Reliability Software Integrated Package (RSIP) @ BC Hydro
MECORE – Bulk electric system (generation & transmission)
MCGSR – Generation system (load & resource balance)
SDREP – Station and Distribution systems
NETREL – Radial and parallel system
MEANLIFE – Equipment end-of-life
SPARE – Spare equipment
PLOSS – Network energy loss
RDMS
Reliability Decision
Management System
(Source: Wijarn Wangdee, 2013)
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Items Required for Value-Based Reliability Analysis
Analysis Tools: Framework for Operational Reliability Management Applications
RE Forecast
Center
Wind, Solar, DGs
EMS/SCADA
(Equipment status,
Automated
Main Engine Risk &
Gen outputs, loads) DIgSILENT
Script App.
PowerFactory
(Combine data, Cost
Create scenarios, Indices
RDMS (SE, OPF, ED,
Collect & combine
Reliability Database Unit Commitment,
results, Calculate Reporting
Management System Reliability indices)
additional indices)
(Gen & Load Models)
(Interruption Cost)
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Chapter 3
Chapter 3: Power Grid Flexibility for VRE
Impact of Variability & Uncertainty
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE
Impact of Variability & Uncertainty
Change in Daily Load Curve (Net Load) with High Solar PV Integration
Moreover, the
behind-the-meter
residential solar,
which today cannot
be dispatched or
even accurately
measured by the
system operator,
will increase the
ramping uncertainty.
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Impact of Variability & Uncertainty
Example of Variability and Uncertainty
Variability is the expected changes in VRE output.
Uncertainty is the change in VRE output that is unexpected.
The variability and uncertainty on systems is what causes the need for Operating Reserves.
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Impact of Variability & Uncertainty
Daily Load and Wind (Source: MIT, 2011)
Generation Profiles in
the California System
Compared to Average
Profiles
Challenges are that
wind power output can
change more rapidly
and over a wider range
than load, and its output
does not conform to
daily cyclic patterns
(unlike solar PV output).
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Impact of Variability & Uncertainty
Variability of VRE : Aggregation of Solar Power
The lack of correlation in
changes solar over short time
scales means that the variability
of the aggregated multiple sites
is significantly smoother than the
variability of an individual site.
Five closest sites: 50 – 170 km
apart
All 23 sites: 20 – 440 km apart
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Impact of Variability & Uncertainty
Seasonal PV
Daily Output
Profile
Shows max,
min, median,
and middle
50% range
for a Georgia
Site (in US)
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Impact of Variability & Uncertainty
Categories for
Daily Variability
Conditions
Sandia’s
variability
index (VI)
and clearness
index (CI) to
classify days
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Impact of Variability & Uncertainty
Variability of VRE : Aggregation of Wind Power
Aggregation and geographic diversity reduces the variability of wind power.
(Approximately 8 hours)
(Source: Michael Milligan, 2016)
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Impact of Variability & Uncertainty
Major Differences between Wind and Solar PV
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Need for Grid Flexibility
What is Flexibility?
Flexibility is the ability of a power system to respond to change in demand and supply.
In other words, flexibility is the ability of a system to respond to a range of uncertain future
states by taking an alternative course of action within acceptable cost threshold and time
window.
Four key elements
Time
Action
Uncertainty
Cost
Serve as a basis for constructing measures of flexibility
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Need for Grid Flexibility : Assessment
Future Generation Planning Process Shall Include System Operation Impacts
2. Geo-Spatial
Planning
3. Dispatch
Simulation
4. Technical
Network
Studies
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: Asami Miketa, 2017)
Need for Grid Flexibility : Assessment
Key Transition Planning Steps and Time Horizon
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“Dynamics”
(Automation)
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INSTRUCTOR : WIJARN WANGDEE (Source: IRENA, 2018b)
Need for Grid Flexibility : Operating Reserve
Range of Relevant Time-Scales for Real-Time Operation of Power Grids
VRE such as wind and solar power are the source of operational challenges due to the fact
that the time-scales of their VRE output variability, i.e. seconds to hours, coincides with the
time-scales of generator dynamics as well as frequency and power control.
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Regulation
Load Following
Contingency Operations
Spinning Reserve
Non-Spinning Reserve
Replacement or
Supplemental Reserve
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Need for Grid Flexibility : Operating Reserve
Actual Example of Event Reserves
Event: The loss of a large power plant (1,200 MW) in France with the contingency reserve
activations.
Primary reserve:
all Europe
Secondary reserve:
all AGC in France
Tertiary reserve:
some units in/near
France
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Need for Grid Flexibility : Ramping Capability
Different Time Scales for Flexibility Requirements
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This requires
the ramping
capacity in
both speed
and quantity,
which is
dictated by
how fast and
how much
the VRE
patterns
change.
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Need for Grid Flexibility : Ramping Capability
Technical Comparison between Gas-Fired and Coal-Fired Power Technologies
175
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Increase in Grid Flexibility
Relative Economics of
Grid Flexibility Options
for High VRE Integration
Flexible solutions by
system operation and
service from VRE are
relatively cheaper than
infrastructure and
technological options
(i.e. load, flexible
conventional generation,
networks, and storage).
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Increase in Grid Flexibility : From Operator Side
Importance of Forecast: Wind Forecasting Method
The forecast process
uses information from
multiple systems,
which include:
Site geo-location,
Meteorological tower
geo-location
EMS (i.e. resource status,
telemetered site specific
meteorological data)
Outage Scheduler (i.e. derate
start/stop dates, derate values)
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Increase in Grid Flexibility : From Operator Side
Wind Forecast Performance
(Day-Ahead & Hour-Ahead)
Shorter time forecast (i.e. hour
ahead) can be more accurate
(less error).
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Increase in Grid Flexibility : From Operator Side
Importance of Forecast: Capacity Requirements Uncertainty Evaluation (CAISO)
The scheduling process for
real-time economic dispatch
(RTED), real-time unit
commitment (RTUC), day-
ahead market (DAM) utilizes
different forecasts depending
on different resolutions and
time horizons.
Therefore, these forecasts
have different accuracies,
statistical characteristics,
and uncertainty ranges
associated with them
Different shades of each
color indicate different (Source: P.V. Etingov, 2012)
levels of confidence.
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considers
day-ahead
uncertainty.
Others
considers
four-hour
ahead
uncertainty.
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Increase in Grid Flexibility : From Operator Side
Increase in Operating Reserve Requirement as More Wind Power Added
Reserve depends
on the time (Source: IEA, 2016)
horizon.
A 24 hour ahead
forecast requires
a larger reserve
increase than
that of a 4 hour
ahead forecast.
Small reserve
increase required
for an hour ahead
uncertainty.
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Increase in Grid Flexibility : From Operator Side
Probabilistic Operating Reserve Assessment Associated with VRE
Example of Generator Outage Statistics*
All Generating Unit Types, 2002-2006 Statistics Fossil Units – Coal, 2002-2006 Statistics
Failure Rate Repair Time Year of Failure Rate Repair Time
Unit Type FOR (%) FOR (%)
(λ in f/yr) (r in hrs) Service (λ in f/yr) (r in hrs)
Hydro Unit 1.97 2.30 42.22 6th – 10th 2.00 6.23 25.97
Fossil Unit 7.32 10.36 52.64 11th – 15th 2.06 6.71 24.91
Nuclear Unit 7.64 2.24 229.33 16th – 20th 3.76 8.24 37.26
CTU (Gas Turbine) 29.78 10.82 141.44 21st – 25th 4.26 9.36 37.51
Note: 26th – 30th 6.61 10.32 47.89
FOR = Forced Outage Rate (i.e. Unavailability) 31st – 35th 9.26 13.97 48.70
Definition of FOR used by CEA is not equal to . 36th – 40th 12.90 16.03 56.86
41st – 45th 12.69 11.85 67.12
*Source: Canadian Electricity Association (CEA) : ERIS – Generation Equipment Status Report 2006
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Case 1: Without forecast error on the net load, the risk (probability) = 0.001826
Case 2: With forecast error on the net load (normal distribution, SD of 8%), the risk = 0.008508
Case 3: To reduce the risk by committing another generator shown below (now 7+1 = 8 units),
with forecast error on the net load (normal distribution, SD of 8%), the risk = 0.001279
Type Size No. of λ ORR for 2-hour Total online generation = 200+15 = 215 MW
(MW) Units (f/yr) lead time (λt/8760) (increase in the operating reserve as a result
Hydro 15 1 2 0.000457 of VRE uncertainty)
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Increase in Grid Flexibility : From Operator Side
Ramping Requirements vs. System Capability (Ramping Cap. Adequacy)
Figure on the Right: A comparison of system ramping capability (blue curve) against
ramping requirements (red curve) for some operating hours.
An area with insufficient system ramping
capability is highlighted in red. In other
words, there is certain probability that the
generation fleet does not have sufficient
ramping up capability to meet the demand.
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Increase in Grid Flexibility : From Operator Side
Response Risk : Evaluation Technique
The evaluation of response risk is similar to the evaluation of the risk in any generating
system. The problem is to evaluate the probability of achieving within the required response
time, the various possible output states of the units held in reserve.
The evaluation should include the effect of the response rate of a unit and the probability
that the responding unit fail during the response period and therefore cannot contribute to
the required response.
The evaluation method is best described by numerical example by evaluating the response
risk of the system with 7 committed units described in this example at various dispatch
patterns. Let the system load be 140 MW and assume the required response time of 5
minutes. The failure probability and response rate data are as follows:
Size No. of λ Probability of Failure in 5 minutes Response Rate
Type
(MW) Units (f/yr) (ORR = λt/8760 = λ×(5/60)/8760) (MW/minute)
Thermal 10 2 3 0.0000285 1
Thermal 20 3 3 0.0000285 1
Thermal 60 2 4 0.0000381 1
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Dispatch E (Effect of using hydro and thermal units for spinning reserve):
Element Unit #1 Unit #2 Unit #3 Unit #4 Unit #5 Unit #6 Unit #7 Total
G 10 10 20 20 20 60 (Therm) 60 (Hydro) 200
L 10 10 20 20 20 30 30 140
R 0 0 0 0 0 5 30 35
Response Risk of Dispatch D: Response Risk of Dispatch E:
Response (MW) Cumulative Risk Response (MW) Cumulative Risk
Hydro unit can respond to
60 1.0000000 35 1.0000000
change very rapid and
0 0.0000095 30 0.0000476 therefore is useful as
A greater response can be achieved using Dispatch D, 5 0.0000095 spinning reserve unit.
but one hydro unit carries all spinning reserve shall
not be used as the risk of failing is high.
0 0.0000000 208
Increase in Grid Flexibility : From VRE Services
Solar Power Plant Evolution (Three Grid Phases)
Basic Solar (Grid 1.0): this works as long as solar penetration is low of solar in a region.
Grid Flexible Solar (Grid 2.0): high penetration of solar requires solar plants to contribute to grid
flexibility and reliability services.
Firm Dispatchable Solar
(Grid 3.0):
combination of
solar with
stationary
batteries,
becoming
Swiss army
knife of the grid.
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Increase in Grid Flexibility : From Energy Storage
Energy Storage Application Time Scales
Energy storages have different time-scale targets that serve for different purposes. The
spectrum of time scales for different storage applications is shown in the figure.
Months: seasonal energy storage 15-30 minutes: up- and down-regulation
4-8 hours: demand shifting Seconds to minutes: solar & wind output smoothing
2 hours: supplemental energy dispatch Sub-milliseconds: power quality adjustment
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Increase in Grid Flexibility : From Energy Storage
Energy Storage Technology Capabilities (in Time Scales)
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Increase in Grid Flexibility : From Energy Storage
Examples of Suitable Storage Technologies for Power System Applications
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Increase in Grid Flexibility : From Energy Storage
Energy Storage System Applications : Renewables Firming
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Increase in Grid Flexibility : From Energy Storage
Ancillary Service Comparison: Pumped Hydropower Storage vs. Battery Storage
(Source: Ingela Tietze, 2017)
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Increase in Grid Flexibility : From Energy Storage
Ancillary Service Comparison: Pumped Hydropower Storage vs. Battery Storage
Batteries are particularly well suited to fast response short term balancing requirements.
Larger storage capacities for longer term services are not currently common.
On the other hand, Pumped hydropower energy stores tend to hold large volumes, have far
higher energy-to-power ratios and thus are able to provide longer term services, even
bridging prolonged periods of low VRE output.
With high VRE penetration, the longer term services of energy storage are more critical.
On the one hand, modern batteries will last longer if charging and discharging is done
incrementally, avoiding maximum charge and depletion.
On the other hand, if pumped hydropower power is running on partial load, its efficiency is
being compromised.
However, any storage technology will have to weigh up their technically preferred running
mode against grid requirements and related economic impacts.
Thus a trade-off has to be made between maximum operating hours and optimum operational
loads.
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Increase in Grid Flexibility : From Energy Storage
Enhanced Flexibility Can Increase PV Capacity Credit (More Firm)
Impact of high PV generation on net load shape may make it easier for load-shifting
technologies by "DR and storage" to provide firm capacity.
The net load shape (with high
PV) has the narrowing of the
peak period, meaning the no.
of peak load hours is shorter.
Instead of relying on pumped
hydro storage for carrying
many hours of peak load,
narrowing of the peak
demand period could allow
shorter-duration batteries to
provide the same level of (Source: Paul Denholm, 2016)
service under high PV
penetration. 225
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Methanation
Efficiency of
Power-to-Gas
Technologies
(Source: Michael Sterner, 2021)
226
Flex by Storage
Hydrogen Economy
(Power-to-Gas)
Note:
PtG = Power-to-Gas
PtH = Power-to-Hydrogen
PtM = Power-to-Methan
(Source: Michael Sterner, 2021)
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Charging eff. =
Discharging eff. =
Typical Performance Parameters and Investment Costs of Different Storage Technologies (Source: WWF Poland, 2019) 229
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Training Course on “High Penetration of Renewable Energy and Impacts
on Power Grid Operation”
References :
16. IRENA (2017a), “Renewable Energy Outlook: Thailand”, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, 2017.
17. IEA (2018a), “Thailand Grid Renewable Integration Assessment: Final Report 2018”, International Energy Agency.
18. IRENA (2018a), "Transforming Small-Island Power Systems: Technical Planning Studies for the Integration of Variable Renewables", International Renewable Energy
Agency, 2018.
19. Andreas Ulbig (2014a), "Operational Flexibility in Electric Power Systems", Doctoral Thesis, ETH Zurich, 2014.
20. PIER (2007), "Intermittency Analysis Project: Final Report", Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program for California Energy Commission, July 2007.
21. IRENA (2017b), "Planning for the renewable future: Long-term modelling and tools to expand variable renewable power in emerging economies", International
Renewable Energy Agency, 2017.
22. IRENA (2017c), "Grid codes as enablers of the energy transition: Scaling up Variable Renewable Power", World Future Energy Summit, 2017.
23. Wijarn Wangdee (2017), “Distributed Generation Systems”, Textbook Publishing Center KMUTNB, 2017. ISBN: 978-616-455-208-1.
24. Lion Hirth et al. (2013), “Control Power and Variable Renewables: A Glimpse at German Data”, SSRN Electronic Journal, January 2013.
25. Falko Ueckerdt et al. (2015), "Analyzing major challenges of wind and solar variability in power systems", Renewable Energy, Vol.81, 2015, pp.1-10.
26. Wolf-Peter Schill (2013), “Residual Load, Renewable Surplus Generation and Storage Requirements in Germany”, Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW
Berlin), 2013.
27. Simon Müller (2015), “Flexible Power Systems to Integrate Large Shares of Renewables: The Value of Interconnections”, IEA-SGCC Dialogue on Global Energy
Interconnection, 21-22 July 2015, Beijing, China.
28. Arne Olson et al. (2015), “Capacity Contribution of Dispatch-Limited Resources”, Portland General Electric IRP Public Meeting #3, August 13, 2015.
29. Jaeseok Choi (2014), “Web Based Online Adequacy Reliability Information System for Power Systems Including Intermittent Resource Generators”, IEEE PES General
Meeting, July 27-31, 2014.
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