COMMENTARY Integrating Multiple Research Methods to Unravel the

10.1029/2021AV000473
Complexity of Human-Water Systems
Peer Review The peer review history Giuliano Di Baldassarre1 , Hannah Cloke1,2 , Sara Lindersson1 ,
for this article is available as a PDF in Maurizio Mazzoleni1 , Elena Mondino1 , Johanna Mård1 , Vincent Odongo1 ,
the Supporting Information.
Elena Raffetti1,3, Elena Ridolfi1 , Maria Rusca1 , Elisa Savelli1 , and Faranak Tootoonchi1
Key Points: 1
Department of Earth Sciences, Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden,
• A ccounting for both power relations 2
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, UK, 3Department of Public Health and
and cognitive heuristics is key to
unravel the interplay of floods,
Primary Care, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK
droughts and human societies
• Flood and drought predictions
are complicated by the increasing Abstract Predicting floods and droughts is essential to inform the development of policy in water
impact of human activities on the management, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Yet, hydrological predictions are
water cycle
• We propose the integration of
highly uncertain, while the frequency, severity and spatial distribution of extreme events are further
multiple research methods as a way complicated by the increasing impact of human activities on the water cycle. In this commentary, we
to cope with uncertainty and develop argue that four main aspects characterizing the complexity of human-water systems should be explicitly
policy-relevant science
addressed: feedbacks, scales, tradeoffs and inequalities. We propose the integration of multiple research
methods as a way to cope with complexity and develop policy-relevant science.
Supporting Information:
Supporting Information may be found Plain Language Summary Several governments today claim to be following the science
in the online version of this article.
in addressing crises caused by the occurrence of extreme events, such as floods and droughts, or the
emergence of global threats, such as climate change and COVID-19. In this commentary, we show that
Correspondence to: there are no universal answers to apparently simple questions such as: Do levees reduce flood risk? Do
G. Di Baldassarre,
reservoirs alleviate droughts? We argue that the best science we have consists of a plurality of legitimate
[email protected]
interpretations and a range of foresights, which can be enriched by integrating multiple disciplines and
research methods.
Citation:
Di Baldassarre, G., Cloke, H.,
Lindersson, S., Mazzoleni, M.,
Mondino, E., Mård, J., et al. (2021). 1. Premise
Integrating multiple research methods
to unravel the complexity of human- Scientific knowledge about floods and droughts, that is, hydrological extremes, provides essential input for
water systems. AGU Advances, policy and decision-making processes in water management, climate change adaptation and disaster risk
2, e2021AV000473. https://doi. reduction (AghaKouchak et al., 2021; Kundzewicz et al., 2014; Montanari et al., 2013; Takeuchi, 2004; Ward
org/10.1029/2021AV000473
et al., 2020). Hydrologists are often challenged by a range of policy-relevant questions in relation to floods
Received 26 APR 2021 and droughts, including: How are they affected by anthropogenic activities and/or global warming? What
Accepted 15 JUL 2021 will be their frequency, severity and spatial distribution in the coming decades? What are the best strategies
to reduce vulnerability and alleviate their negative impacts?
Author Contributions:
Writing – review & editing: Hannah
Hydrologists alone cannot address these questions. Thus, a very long history of collaboration has evolved
Cloke, Sara Lindersson, Maurizio across disciplines dealing with water-related issues. Scholars engaged in water resources systems, which
Mazzoleni, Elena Mondino, Johanna started with the Harvard Water Program in the 1960s, provided well-established examples of such inter-
Mård, Vincent Odongo, Elena Raffetti,
Elena Ridolfi, Maria Rusca, Elisa
disciplinary collaborations (Brown et al., 2015). Over the past decade, more and more hydrologists have
Savelli, Faranak Tootoonchi argued for further engagement with social scientists, including political ecologists and behavioral econo-
mists (Blair & Buytaert, 2016; Di Baldassarre et al., 2019; Liu et al., 2014; Montanari et al., 2013; Rusca &
Di Baldassarre, 2019; Sivapalan et al., 2012). Political ecology has uncovered the major role played by pol-
itics and power relations in shaping the complex dynamics of human-water systems (Swyngedouw, 1999).
Behavioral economists have demonstrated how cognitive heuristics and biases (Slovic, 1987; Tversky &
© 2021. The Authors. Kahneman, 1974) influence human behavior and attitude, as well as the way in which people and decision
This is an open access article under makers think about hydrological risks (Aerts et al., 2018). As such, accounting for both power relations and
the terms of the Creative Commons
Attribution License, which permits use,
cognitive heuristics is key to unravel the interplay of floods, droughts and human societies.
distribution and reproduction in any
medium, provided the original work is In this commentary, we first discuss the challenge of predicting floods and droughts in today's hu-
properly cited. man-dominated world, and then propose the integration of multiple research methods as a way to cope

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with complexity and develop policy-relevant science. In particular, we argue for the need to go beyond
what-can-be-quantified.

2. The Complexity of Human-Water Systems

Flood and drought predictions are affected by several sources of uncertainty (Beven, 2016; Blöschl
et al., 2019; Parthasarathy, 2018). They range from the chaotic nature of weather to the complex propagation
of hydrological extremes, which is further complicated by the increasing influence of human activities in
the Anthropocene (AghaKouchak et al., 2015; Best, 2019; Brunner et al., 2021; Di Baldassarre et al., 2017;
Sivapalan et al., 2012; Van Loon et al., 2016; Vörösmarty et al., 2013). To cope with this uncertainty, we
argue that four main aspects characterizing the complexity of human-water systems should be considered.

First, feedbacks between social and physical processes can generate unintended consequences (Lan-
sing, 2003). Water infrastructure, such as levees or reservoirs, can help reduce the frequency of hydrological
extremes, but can also: (a) generate complacency or a false sense of security, that is, safe-development
paradox (Ferreira et al., 2013; Kates et al., 2006; Montz & Tobin, 2008); (b) fuel urbanization of floodplains
(Pinter et al., 2016; White, 1945); and (c) enable increasing water consumption (Di Baldassarre et al., 2018;
Gohari et al., 2013; Kallis, 2010). Research in sociohydrology (Sivapalan et al., 2012) has shown how large
water infrastructure can worsen the negative impacts of floods or droughts (Di Baldassarre et al., 2021;
Garcia et al., 2020; Viglione et al., 2014; Ward et al., 2020).

Second, scales matter (Brelsford et al., 2020) and what works at the smaller scale can fail at the larger scale
(and vice versa). The irrigation efficiency paradox (Grafton et al., 2018) is a typical example of how unde-
sirable outcomes at the large basin scale can result from supposedly efficient decisions at the farm scale
(Dumont et al., 2013). More specifically, a range of technologies is increasingly used to improve irrigation
efficiency with the goal of saving water at the farm scale (Grafton et al., 2018). Yet, saved water is often
reallocated to expand irrigating areas elsewhere thereby increasing water consumptions at the large basin
scale (Di Baldassarre et al., 2019).

Third, tradeoffs between competing interests are unavoidable (Chen & Olden, 2017; Reichstein et al., 2021).
As a matter of fact, human societies do not merely aim to reduce drought and flood risks (Ward et al., 2020).
Individuals, communities and institutions have multiple goals: eradicating poverty and hunger, promoting
health and well-being, and reducing inequalities to mention only some of the UN's Sustainable Develop-
ment Goals (SDGs, 2015). These tradeoffs cannot be neglected in developing policy-relevant science. For
example, research work on human-flood interactions should not only address how societies impact (and re-
spond to) flood events, but also explore the socioeconomic benefits of living in floodplain areas that offer de-
sirable conditions, for example, livelihood, cultural organization, trade, and transportation (Collins, 2009;
Ferdous et al., 2018).

Fourth, society is heterogeneous and some social groups have more influence than others on how water
resources are governed (Andrijevic et al., 2020; Parthasarathy, 2018; Savelli et al., 2021; Verchick, 2012). To
illustrate, the most powerful social groups have prevailing ideas on the development and operation of water
infrastructure (Savelli et al., 2021), which often results in uneven distribution of hydrological risk (Thaler
& Hartmann, 2016). Water security in Cape Town is emblematic of this. Water supply secured by massive
reservoirs has been disproportionally used by the upper class, which could also quickly recover from the
2015–2017 drought and the Day Zero water crisis (Savelli et al., 2021). Moreover, low-income groups and
minorities are often more severely affected by hydrological extremes (Carter et al., 2007; De Silva & Kawasa-
ki, 2020; Finch et al., 2010; Hallegatte et al., 2020; Tovar Reaños, 2021). New Orleans is a case in point: race,
class, age and gender played a role in the unequal consequences of the 2005 flooding following hurricane
Katrina (Elliott & Pais, 2006; Kates et al., 2006; Rusca et al., 2021).

3. Integrating Research Methods

This complexity of human-water systems requires methodological and conceptual innovations to cope with
uncertainty and develop policy-relevant science. Here, we argue for a combination of qualitative and quan-
titative approaches as well as an integration of models and observations (Figure 1).

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Figure 1. Integrating research methods to unravel the complexity of human-water systems and cope with uncertainty in sociohydrological predictions.

We posit that both qualitative and quantitative approaches are needed to advance scientific knowledge.
While quantitative assessments allow us to mathematically describe dynamics, qualitative analyses are key
to explain them (Rusca & Di Baldassarre, 2019). In the aforementioned example of Cape Town, quantitative
analyses of precipitation data and reservoir water levels (Garcia et al., 2020) allowed the study of drought
propagation (from meteorological to hydrological) and inequalities in water consumptions, but they could
not explain the role of power relations in determining this outcome. A qualitative analysis of policy docu-
ments and interviews revealed how the long history of social injustice and the legacy of the apartheid influ-
enced the uneven impacts of, and recovery from, the 2015–2017 drought (Savelli et al., 2021). Focusing only
on what-can-be-quantified, for example, would have prevented a critical understanding of fundamental
issues (the “why” question).

We also argue for a deeper integration of observations and models. In traditional hydrology, this integration
mostly consists of model calibration and validation (or data assimilation), as the basic science of hydrolog-
ical processes is rather solid. On the contrary, the interplay of water and society is globally recognized as
one of the unsolved problems in hydrological science (Blöschl et al., 2019), and it includes behavioral and
political aspects that cannot be quantified (Rangecroft et al., 2021). Thus, observations and models should
be integrated in a different way.

Sociohydrological models consist of a set of hypotheses about the human-water interactions generating
phenomena, crises and risks (Blair & Buytaert, 2016; Pande & Sivapalan, 2017; Sivapalan & Blöschl, 2015).
For instance, the model of human-flood interactions developed by Di Baldassarre et al. (2013) explained the
safe-development paradox (one of the empirically observed phenomena) as a result of the accumulation
and decay of collective flood memory. While being inspired by empirical observations, sociohydrological
models in turn inspire new types of data collections. The concept of collective flood memory, for example,
motivated empirical studies and the collection of historical data exploring changes over time in the way in
which people remember and perceive floods (Buarque et al., 2020; Mondino et al., 2020). New observations
can then help evaluate the explanatory value of the model(s), or stimulate the development of a new set of
hypotheses (Ridolfi et al., 2020) within iterative processes that ultimately produce new scientific knowledge.

Combining different approaches to researching hydrological extremes also helps derive many lines of evi-
dence giving more credibility to research outcomes, that is, triangulation (Munafò & Smith, 2018). In other
words, “if the results of different approaches all point to the same conclusion, this strengthens confidence
in the finding” (Lawlor et al., 2016). Thus, mixed research methods can contribute to test alternative hy-
potheses about the human-water interactions generating sociohydrological phenomena. Moreover, they can
help reveal whether hydrological risk dynamics observed in a specific place in the past might also happen
elsewhere in the future, which is an essential step to develop policy-relevant science (Rusca et al., 2021).
To this end, new opportunities are currently offered by the ongoing proliferation of global datasets and
worldwide archives allowing studies to go beyond the observation and modeling of specific case studies
(Lindersson et al., 2020; Mård et al., 2018; Mazzoleni et al., 2020).

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4. Follow the Science?

Several governments today claim to be “following the science” (Bacevic, 2020) in addressing crises caused
by the occurrence of extreme events, such as floods and droughts, or the emergence of global threats, such
as climate change and COVID-19. As scientists, we should celebrate this moment. However, as discussed,
there are no universal answers to apparently simple questions such as: Do levees reduce flood risk? Do res-
ervoirs alleviate droughts? Concurrently, decision makers have incentives to downplay the aforementioned
uncertainties and complexities (Pearce, 2020). Politicians can present “as scientific evidence” a specific
outcome, picked ad-hoc from a broader range of results, which is then used “as a sound justification” for
precise actions (Bacevic, 2020).

In this state of affairs, the need to cross methodological boundaries and go beyond what-can-be-quantified
is even more pressing. Embracing and integrating multiple research methods is not only a means to advance
policy-relevant science, but also the only way to keep our scientific integrity and honesty (Pielke, 2007). It
allows us to explicitly recognize (and communicate) that we can only be approximately right while offering
the best science we have, which consists of a plurality of legitimate interpretations and a range of foresights.

Conflict of Interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest relevant to this study.

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