2024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK –

SLOW GROWTH, HIGH UNCERTAINTY

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Introduction

This is an inaugural publication which we hope will help you and your stakeholders navigate the
many challenges and risks in the global economy in the year ahead. We intend to produce it annually
in the future and, hence, would greatly appreciate any thoughts or feedback you may have on it.

In an attempt to try and differentiate it somewhat from the the major risks. In Section 2, we highlight and discuss the key
many other outlook publications produced around this time risk events to watch, in a year packed full of elections around
of year, we include summaries of interviews with seven chief the globe. In Section 3, we highlight three key trends we will
financial officers (CFOs) from across the globe. They provided be closely following in the coming year: i) further backsliding
their bottom-up perspectives from the corporate level on how by governments on policies intended to achieve the green
they see the prospects for the world and their regions and transition; ii) rising geoeconomic fragmentation; and iii)
countries in 2024. In Section 1, we discuss the prospects for the developments with artificial intelligence (AI). Finally, in Section
global economy and key countries in 2024, as well as some of 4 we publish summaries of interviews with seven CFOs.

3
Executive summary

The global economy looks set to grow slowly once again in 2024, and downside risks remain.
The lagged impact of past monetary tightening could lead to an even more pronounced slowing in
growth, and geopolitical risks remain very heightened, while the busy political calendar adds
a sizeable extra degree of uncertainty and potential volatility.

U.S. growth is likely to slow from 2023, but the chances of the In addition to closely monitoring the usual ebb and flow of
Federal Reserve (Fed) pulling off a soft-landing look better economic and financial markets data throughout the year,
than even now. Growth will remain weak in the euro area and we will also be paying particularly close attention to three
UK amid restrictive monetary policy and tighter fiscal policy, key trends: i) further backsliding by governments on policies
but should still be moderately positive. The recovery in China intended to achieve the green transition; ii) rising geoeconomic
remains quite tentative, and policymakers will likely have fragmentation; and iii) developments with artificial intelligence
to materially step-up policy support in 2024 if they want to (AI). The first two could be particularly influenced by political
achieve growth similar to 2023. Meanwhile, growth in India is developments throughout the year. For the last, we will be on
set to remain robust, and it is likely to be the fastest-growing the lookout for any early signs that wider adoption could be
major economy once again in 2024. beginning to provide a much-needed boost to productivity
growth in global economies. In particular, as generative AI
This year has an extraordinarily busy political calendar. A key continues to develop, more accessible models could increase
focus for businesses and investors will be the U.S. election in the discovery of new and better applications.
November. In what is likely to be a very tight race, polls in key
swing states currently give former President Trump a slight To support our economic analysis, we also interviewed seven
advantage. A victory for the former president could have major CFOs from across the globe in various sectors, to gain a
implications for international trade, geopolitics and the green bottom-up perspective on how business leaders see the year
transition. There are also elections in other economically and ahead. In general, there was a feeling of caution about 2024,
geopolitically important countries. In India, Prime Minister amid the challenging global economic backdrop and given the
Modi looks set for another five-year term, while in the UK, geopolitical developments and elections in many countries.
the opposition centre-left Labour Party looks on course to Some businesses were naturally less impacted by cyclical
return to power. In Europe, far-right political parties look set economic developments, but a number were affected by, or
to perform well in European Parliamentary and German at risk from, structural changes related to trade, and supply
regional elections. In South Africa, the African National chain issues. Most were experimenting with AI and other
Congress (ANC) is highly likely to remain the largest party but technologies in their businesses, while some noted difficulty in
is at risk of losing its parliamentary majority for the first time attracting talent, given changing ways of working. One noted
since the end of Apartheid. how global warming had recently impacted his business.

4
Section 1:
Prospects for the Global economy in 2024
The global economy performed better than expected in 2023, avoiding the major downturn that
many observers feared.

It benefited from the sharp fall in commodity prices from their Headline inflation has fallen back sharply in most countries
2022 peaks and the continued recovery of global supply chains across the globe over the past 12 months, and core inflation
and normalisation of service sectors, while economies proved has also come down materially in many. Of the two major
more resilient than expected to the aggressive increases in advanced economies, headline inflation is currently 3.4% in the
central bank interest rates. This probably reflects the support U.S. and 2.9% in the euro area – well down from recent peaks
to consumer spending from excess savings built up during the of around 9% and 11% respectively. Nevertheless, amid the
pandemic, as well as the fact that many households and firms recent rises in headline inflation in both countries in December,
had previously locked in low interest rates. rather stubborn service sector inflation (see Chart 2), and an
elevated risk of supply shocks amid the current geopolitical
There was, nonetheless, still a divergence in performance backdrop, it could be risky for the central banks to declare
among the major economies. The U.S. and India performed imminent victory in their battles against inflation. Indeed,
strongly, the Chinese recovery was disappointing, while growth according to global accountants who responded to our GECS
was weak in the euro area. Overall, the global economy is still survey, concerns about costs remain elevated by historical
thought to have grown by well below its annual average of standards (ACCA/IMA, 2024). Without a more material easing
recent decades. The World Bank has estimated that in 2023 in job markets, there remains a significant risk that the last mile
there was an expansion of just 3% (see Table 1), similar to the for central banks in getting inflation sustainably back to their
OECD’s 2.9% estimate from November (OECD 2023). targets, could prove to be the hardest.
Business-related surveys typically pointed to slowing global
economic momentum as 2023 progressed. In our Global
Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) (ACCA/IMA, 2024), CHART 2: Service sector inflation
confidence among accountants and financial professionals
globally has fallen gradually for three successive quarters since
Q1 (see Chart 1), while the closely watched J.P. Morgan Global
Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has fallen quite
markedly since its peak in the spring, although it has improved
slightly in recent months (S&P Global 2024a). Across sectors,
the manufacturing PMI was in, or quite close to, contractionary
territory through much of 2023 (S&P Global 2024b), which is
reflected in the weakness in global trade growth, but it was the
slowing of the service sector PMI that drove most of the fall in
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
the Composite index. Despite the declines, the surveys are not
Source: ASR Ltd. / LSEG Datastream (2024)
indicative of a major global downturn at the present time.

Amid the improving inflation backdrop, financial markets have

pivoted to pricing-in a material amount of interest rate cuts this
CHART 1: GECS global business confidence year in the major advanced economies, with some observers
even expecting cuts as early as the current quarter. At his
December press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted
a surprisingly dovish stance, and the Summary of Economic
Projections suggested that the committee expects three interest
rate cuts in 2024 (Federal Reserve Board, 2023), albeit still
around half the number currently expected by financial markets.
The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England
(BoE) adopted more hawkish postures in December, although
ECB President Christine Lagarde has subsequently suggested
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
that monetary easing could begin in the summer. Reflecting
Source: ACCA/IMA (2024)
the change in market expectations around central banks,
particularly the Fed, there has been quite a material easing in
global financial conditions since late October, with 10-year U.S.
Treasury yields falling sharply, the S&P500 rising strongly, and
the U.S. dollar weakening in broad trade weighted terms.

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2024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – SLOW GROWTH, HIGH UNCERTAINTY | SECTION 1: PROSPECTS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2024

Focusing on the prospects for 2024, global growth is likely

to come in materially below its average once again, with a
THE RISKS TO GLOBAL
broadly similar pace of expansion as last year. The World Bank GROWTH REMAIN TO THE
forecasts an increase of 2.9% in global gross domestic product DOWNSIDE THIS YEAR, AMID
(GDP) (see Table 1), while the OECD expects a slightly slower A WORLD CHARACTERISED BY
gain of 2.7% (OECD 2023). Growth is likely to be well below
its average in advanced economies as, despite the likelihood
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
of some monetary easing – probably beginning in the AND POTENTIAL VOLATILITY.
summer, central banks maintain restrictive monetary policies
to ensure victory in their battles against inflation. Meanwhile, The risks to global growth remain to the downside this year,
fiscal policies also look set to be contractionary in the major amid a world characterised by significant uncertainty and
advanced economies, while political uncertainty, amid major potential volatility. These include a major risk that the lagged
elections this year, as well as elevated geopolitical tensions, impact of global monetary tightening could lead to a harder
could weigh on confidence and spending. landing in the advanced economies, and/or major financial
stresses. This risk is perhaps not quite as heightened as
looked likely in late autumn, amid the subsequent somewhat
TABLE 1: World Bank economic forecasts loosening in global financial conditions, a rising chance of a
soft landing for the U.S. economy, and given what looks like
2022 2023E 2024E a pivot towards monetary easing by advanced economies’
World* 3.3 3 2.9 central banks this year. Nevertheless, if inflation remains
AEs 2.5 1.5 1.2 stubborn, forcing a major repricing of financial market
EMs 3.7 4 3.9 expectations for interest rates, then the magnitude of this risk
would increase again.
EMXC 4.2 3.2 3.5
China 3.0 5.2 4.5 Meanwhile, geopolitical risks have become even more elevated
U.S. 1.9 2.5 1.6 in recent months, with a rising risk of a broader escalation of
Euro area 3.4 0.4 0.7 the conflict in the Middle East. The attacks by Houthi rebels
have already fuelled a sharp decline in shipping through the
India** 7.2 6.3 6.4
Suez Canal (see Chart 3), and events in the Middle East clearly
Source: World Bank 2024 have the potential to cause a large increase in energy prices
*‘World’ is GDP growth based on Purchasing Power Parity calculation methodology.
AEs = Advanced Economies, EMs = Emerging market and developing economies, and global shipping costs. This would clearly be very damaging
EMXC = EMs excluding China
**The India numbers are based on fiscal years.
for business and consumer confidence, and would greatly
complicate central banks’ task of getting inflation sustainably
Similarly, growth in emerging economies is generally expected down to their targets. Elsewhere, the conflict between Russia
to be below its average, although a key factor behind this is and Ukraine continues to exacerbate the geopolitical situation.
the slower growth in the Chinese economy than the heady
pace of previous decades. Growth in emerging economies
excluding China is actually expected to improve modestly in CHART 3: Global shipping capacity passing through the
2024 from that of 2023, with the World Bank forecasting growth Suez Canal
of 3.5% in 2024 versus 3.2% in 2023. Clearly, a number of
emerging and developing countries will remain under pressure,
given slow growth in the advanced economies and tight global
financial conditions, but a number of important countries
are likely to register a pretty solid performance in 2024. For
example, the World Bank forecasts growth of 6.4%, 4.9%, 4.1%,
2.6% and 2.6% in India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Poland and
Mexico, respectively. The start of policy easing by the Fed
should prove helpful for emerging economies, as would any
further weakening in the U.S. dollar.
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: ASR Ltd. / LSEG Datastream / IMF PortWatch (2024)

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2024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – SLOW GROWTH, HIGH UNCERTAINTY | SECTION 1: PROSPECTS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2024

Political risk will also be particularly heightened in 2024 amid Philadelphia 2023), which is broadly similar to the World Bank
such an extremely busy year for elections (see Section 2: Key forecast (World Bank 2024). Despite the likelihood of a pivot
events in 2024 – a very political year). A key focus for the global to monetary easing by the Fed, monetary policy is likely to
economy and financial markets will be the U.S. election, with a remain restrictive amid elevated real interest rates. Fiscal policy
re-run of President Biden versus former President Trump also looks set to drag on growth this year (Brookings 2023).
seeming highly likely. The result will likely be very close, with Meanwhile, the dwindling of excess savings built up during
opinion polls in swing states currently suggesting that the former the pandemic and slowing jobs and wage growth should help
president has a slight advantage. A victory for Donald Trump to slow consumer spending. Nevertheless, it is now looking
could have major implications for global trade, geopolitics and like a better than even chance that the Fed may achieve a
the green transition. Upside risks to the global economy in 2024 soft landing for the economy, amid the easing in financial
could come from continuing rapid improvements in inflation, conditions in recent months (see Chart 5), the improvement
paving the way for quite an early and significant easing of in the inflation backdrop, and given the likelihood of some
monetary policy by central banks. Of course, that could also interest rate cuts.
risk sowing the seeds of higher inflation in 2025 and beyond.

According to our 2023 Q4 Global Risks Survey (ACCA/IMA,

CHART 5: U.S. Weighted average lending rates
2024), economic-related risks remained firmly in first place
%
among risk priorities, although such concerns had eased
slightly from previous quarters (see Chart 4). Economic-related
risks were ranked in first place by 21% of respondents working
in financial services, and by 29% of those working in the
corporate sector. Overall, talent retention remained in second
place followed by regulatory change. Geopolitical risks have
risen significantly up the ranks of risk priorities since 2022 Q4.

Turning to the key countries, after expanding robustly in 2023,

the U.S. economy is likely to slow materially in 2024. According
to the latest Survey of Professional Forecasters, the U.S. is 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

expected to grow by 1.7% in 2024 (Federal Reserve Bank of Source: ASR Ltd. / LSEG Datastream (2024)

CHART 4: Top-ranked risk priorities in 2023, according to accountancy and financial professionals
% Q4 Q3 Q2
30

25

20

15

10

0
Economic inflation Talent scarcity / Regulatory / International Technology / Misconduct / Climate change / Currency, Logistics / Withdrawal of
/ recession / skills gaps / compliance / and geopolitical data / fraud / related regulation including crypto, supply chain fiscal measures /
interest rates employee legal instability cybersecurity reputational / its social and digital assets disruption / higher taxation
retention damage economic impacts and FX supply shortages

Source: ACCA/IMA (2024), ACCA/IMA Global Risks survey (2023) <https://www.accaglobal.com/gb/en/professional-insights/global-economics/GECS_q4_2023.html>

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2024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – SLOW GROWTH, HIGH UNCERTAINTY | SECTION 1: PROSPECTS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2024

In the euro area, the economic backdrop remains rather bleak, In the UK, the economy contracted by 0.1% in Q3, and another
with the economy contracting by 0.1% in Q3 and being flat soft reading seems likely in Q4. Growth is likely to be weak
in Q4. Tight monetary policy has weighed heavily on bank in 2024 amid tight monetary policy and contractionary fiscal
lending and housing markets, and the soft global economy policy, with the freeze in income tax and national insurance
has hurt exports. ECB estimates also suggest that fiscal policy thresholds. That said, with an election likely in the autumn, the
is likely to be meaningfully more contractionary in 2024. The government will use whatever room is available in its upcoming
locomotive for the region’s economy, Germany, is struggling, March Budget to try and reduce the magnitude of the fiscal
as the rise in energy costs since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drag somewhat. Further tax cuts seem highly likely. Growth
has weighed on its all-important manufacturing sector, as will likely be moderately positive in 2024, improving gradually
has the weak Chinese economic recovery and the growing as the year progresses amid positive real income growth and
competition from its ascendant electric vehicle industry. On a the likelihood of some monetary easing. In November 2023,
positive note, the region’s jobs market remains tight (see Chart the BoE and Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast
6), and real income growth has turned positive. This should growth of 0% and 0.7% respectively, in 2024 (BoE 2023; OBR
provide some support to the consumer, while the beginning of 2023) while the average of independent forecasts compiled by
monetary easing will also provide some relief to the economy. HM Treasury in January was 0.4% (HM Treasury 2024).
Growth overall in 2024 will be weak, but should be moderately
positive. According to the ECB’s latest Survey of Professional China’s recovery after exiting its Zero COVID policies was
Forecasters, economists expected an expansion of 0.6% in weaker than expected in 2023, as problems in the all-important
2024 (ECB 2024), slightly lower than the World Bank’s estimate housing market, depressed confidence and weak exports all
of 0.7% (World Bank 2024). weighed on the economy. The recent data has been quite
mixed, but the government still achieved its GDP growth target
of ‘around 5%’ for 2023 with an expansion of 5.2%. With the
recovery still quite tentative, problems with housing, rising
CHART 6: Euro area unemployment rate
%
fears of deflation and large external risks, further measures to
support housing, monetary easing and increased fiscal stimulus
seem likely in 2024. But the government still seems keen to
avoid the excessive stimulus that has typically occurred in the
past. With less-favourable base effects this year than last, it will
be difficult for the government to achieve past growth again.
In November, the OECD forecast 2024 growth of 4.7%, and
the World Bank expects an expansion of 4.5% (OECD 2023;
World Bank 2024). Developments in the housing market and
the spillovers from these to the wider economy and financial
markets remain a major downside risk.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Source: Eurostat
Finally, the Indian economy was the best performing of the
large economies in 2023 and is on course for another year of
strong growth in 20241. The National Statistical Office expects
ON A POSITIVE NOTE, THE growth of over 7% in fiscal year 2023-24, while the governor of
the Reserve Bank of India suggested that he sees growth of
REGION’S JOBS MARKET 7% in fiscal year 2024-25 – stronger than World Bank estimates
REMAINS TIGHT AND REAL (Shaktikanta Das 2024). Reflecting the bullish backdrop,
INCOME GROWTH HAS TURNED the stock market has surged close to record highs, and the
POSITIVE. THIS SHOULD purchasing manager’s surveys remain upbeat (S&P Global
PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT TO 2024c; 2024d). The economy is likely to continue to benefit
THE CONSUMER, WHILE THE from strong infrastructure spending by the government, solid
service sector exports, and the diversification of international
BEGINNING OF MONETARY supply chains. A Modi victory in the election could also reduce
EASING WILL ALSO PROVIDE uncertainty and spur some strengthening in private sector
SOME RELIEF TO THE ECONOMY. investment. Developments with domestic food prices, and
international energy prices, remain key risks, as always.

1 Note, forecasts for the Indian economy are usually made on a fiscal year basis. For example, an annual forecast for calendar year 2024, will be based on the fiscal year 2024/25. This will run from
the beginning of April 2024 to the end of March 2025.

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Section 2:
Key events in 2024 – a very political year
2024 is an extremely busy and important year on the political front, with the world’s four largest
democracies, India, the U.S., Indonesia and Pakistan, among others, going to the polls (see Chart 7).

CHART 7: Key event calendar for 2024

FEBRUARY

8 February: Pakistan General Election

14 February: Indonesia Presidential Election

MARCH 1 March: Iran Legislative Election

5 March:
China National People’s Congress 6 March: UK Budget

10 March: Portugal Legislative Election 17 March: Russia Presidential Election

APRIL

10 April: Korea Legislative Election

likely April–May:
MAY
India General Election

JUNE
2 June: Mexico General Election
6–9 June: European Parliament Election
9 June: Belgium Federal Election

JULY between May–August: South Africa General Election

26 July–11 August: AUGUST likely 2024: China Third Plenum

Paris 2024 Olympic Games

September:
SEPTEMBER
Germany Regional Elections

between September–October: likely Autumn 2024:

OCTOBER
Sri Lanka Presidential Election UK General Election

NOVEMBER
5 November:
U.S. Presidential Election
11–24 November: 18–19 November:
COP 29, Baku, Azerbaijan G20 meeting, Brazil

DECEMBER

Source: National/International sources and Wikipedia

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2024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – SLOW GROWTH, HIGH UNCERTAINTY | SECTION 2: KEY EVENTS IN 2024 – A VERY POLITICAL YEAR

Since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008–9, populist politicians, Absolutely key from a global economic and financial market
parties and policies have generally been on the rise, particularly perspective will be the U.S. Presidential election on 5
in advanced economies, exemplified by the UK’s decision November. A re-run of 2020 with President Joe Biden pitted
to leave the EU and Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 U.S. against former President Trump looks highly likely. President
Presidential election. The first-place finish by far-right candidate Biden’s personal approval ratings are very low, and former
Geert Wilders in the recent Dutch general election suggests President Trump has small leads in both national polling
that voter concerns about the cost of living, immigration and averages and, importantly, in polls in most key swing states
international trade may provide a fertile ground for populist, (see Chart 8).
anti-establishment politicians over the coming year.

CHART 8: U.S. presidential election – polling averages

% Biden Trump
50

48

46

44

42

40

38

36
National Arizona Georgia Michigan Nevada Pennsylvania Wisconsin

Source: RealClear Polling (2024a)

National = RCP average 10th December-16th January, States = RCP average September-January. The numbers do not sum to 100 as polling for other candidates has been excluded.

ABSOLUTELY KEY FROM

A GLOBAL ECONOMIC
AND FINANCIAL MARKET
PERSPECTIVE WILL BE
THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION ON 5 NOVEMBER.

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2024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – SLOW GROWTH, HIGH UNCERTAINTY | SECTION 2: KEY EVENTS IN 2024 – A VERY POLITICAL YEAR

This would perhaps suggest that the former president is a In Africa, the continent’s second largest economy, South
slight favourite in a very tight race, although there is enormous Africa, will go to the polls sometime between May and
uncertainty about the result in a nation deeply divided August. The ANC’s popularity has been hit by prolonged
politically. Indeed, developments with the jobs market, high unemployment, regular power cuts and accusations of
inflation, gas prices and interest rates are also likely to be corruption. It is highly likely to remain the largest party, but
important determinants of President Biden’s chances, as well opinion polls suggest there is a significant risk that it will
as the situation in the Middle East. Indications suggest that a lose its parliamentary majority for the first time in the post-
second Trump term could lead to tougher policies on trade and Apartheid era (Wikipedia 2024). Hence, it may have to form
immigration, and some rowing back of policies to achieve the a coalition with another party to form the majority3.
green transition. There will also be significant uncertainty about
his support for Ukraine and existing alliances such as NATO2. In Asia, the Pakistani General election will take place on 8
February, closely followed by the Indonesian Presidential
Elections for the U.S. Congress will also be important, given election on 14 February. The latter will be closely followed
that Congress can act as an important check on the power of given that Indonesia is a large economy and an important
the Executive branch. The Democrats currently have a wafer- producer of commodities critical for the green transition.
thin majority in the Senate, as do the Republicans in the House The current president, Joko Widodo, is term limited and is
of Representatives. Current generic congressional vote polls not running again. Of the three candidates, current defence
show the Republicans with a very small advantage (RealClear minister, Prabowo Subianto, whose vice-presidential running
Polling 2024b). As with the presidency, the results are likely to mate is Widodo’s son, has a substantial lead in the polls, but
be very close, although the geographical split of seats being may not secure the 50% necessary to avoid a second-round
contested provides the Republicans with a good opportunity run-off in June (Lamb and Teresia 2024). Meanwhile, India
to capture the Senate. heads to the polls in April and May. Prime Minister Narendra
Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party performed strongly in recent
In Europe, the European Parliamentary elections are in June. regional elections, winning seats from the opposition Indian
The centre-right European People’s Party is projected to National Congress Party. With Modi’s personal popularity
remain the largest, although the main pro-European parties remaining very high and the economy performing strongly,
are expected to lose seats, with large losses projected for he looks well set to be elected for a third five-year term4.
the Greens, while strong gains are expected for the ‘Euro-
sceptic’ far-right groupings (Europe Elects 2024). Regional Aside from elections, an important focus will as usual be
elections in three eastern German states will also receive China’s annual National People’s Congress, beginning on 5
attention in September, ahead of national elections in 2025, March. The government will provide details of its GDP growth
with the far-right Alternative Fur Deutschland party currently and inflation targets for 2024 and the likely fiscal policy stance,
polling strongly in all three states (Chazan, 2024). In the UK, a as well as various other policies and priorities. The important
general election looks set for the second half of the year, with Third Plenum of China’s 20th Central Committee may also
sometime in the autumn most likely. The opposition centre-left be held this year, which will probably have a greater focus
Labour Party has maintained a commanding lead in the polls on longer-term economic policies and reforms. Finally, in
since the autumn of 2022 (Politico 2024), and indications point November, we will watch closely to see whether politicians
to its securing a majority of seats and assuming power for the can make additional progress on policies for achieving the
first time since 2010. The Russian Presidential election will green transition, at COP 29 in Baku, Azerbaijan.
also be closely watched in March, amid the war with Ukraine.
A victory for President Putin seems likely.

2 For a useful overview of his potential policies, see Curran and Cook 2024.
3 For a useful exposition of the political situation in South Africa, see Verwoerd (2023).
4 For a useful summary of elections in Asia, see Nikkei Asia 2023.

11
Section 3:
Three key trends we are watching in 2024
In addition to closely monitoring the usual ebb and flow of economic and financial markets data
throughout the year, we will be paying particularly close attention to three key trends: i) backsliding
by governments on policies intended to achieve the green transition; ii) rising geoeconomic
fragmentation; and iii) developments with AI. The first two could be heavily influenced by the
elections across the world.

i) Backsliding by governments on policies In our 2023 Q4 GECS, we asked global accountancy and
intended to achieve the green transition finance professionals, ‘Next year, what do you think will
Even though meeting the Paris climate goals remains a major happen to government policies designed to transition the
challenge for the world, last year saw the authorities in a country where you work into a greener economy?’ Among our
number of countries, eg, the UK, Germany and New Zealand, respondents, 13% expected policies would be weakened, 39%
dialling back on policies intended to achieve the green thought they would stay the same, 41% expected them to be
transition, amid cost-of-living stresses and various political strengthened, and 7% didn’t know (see Chart 9). There were,
pressures. Given the busy political calendar this year, there is however, some very interesting regional differences. Only 8%
clearly a significant risk of further backsliding by governments, and 9% of respondents in Asia-Pacific and Africa, respectively,
which could delay the transition and increase uncertainty expected policies to be weakened in their countries, versus
among firms. In the U.S., the world’s second-largest emitter, 14% and 20% in the U.S. and Western Europe respectively (for
Donald Trump, if victorious, could attempt to row back parts of the UK, the figure was 30%). Only 37% and 39% of respondents
President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and loosen restrictions in North America and Western Europe, respectively, expected
on fossil fuel production. He may also again withdraw the U.S. policies to be strengthened, compared with 49% in Asia-Pacific.
from the Paris Agreement.

CHART 9: 2023 Q4 survey of global accountancy professionals on the prospects for government policies designed to
achieve the green transition
% Decreased/weakened Stay the same Increased/strengthened Don’t know
100
13% 14% 8% 9%
20%
80
35%
39% 45%
47% 38%
60

40
49% 35%
41% 39%
20 37%

0
Global North America Asia-Pacific Western Europe Africa

Source: ACCA/IMA (2024)

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2024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – SLOW GROWTH, HIGH UNCERTAINTY | SECTION 3: THREE KEY TRENDS WE ARE WATCHING IN 2024

ii) Rising geoeconomic fragmentation It is not just the U.S. that has been implementing more restrictive
The IMF has noted that after decades of increasing global trade policies. The European Union’s Net Zero Industry Act has
integration, the world is facing the risk of fragmentation (Aiyar a protectionist bent and the bloc is also considering duties on
et al. 2023). It coined the term ‘geoeconomic fragmentation’, Chinese electrical vehicle imports. China has enacted restrictions
representing a policy-driven reversal of global economic on imports of products from some countries and placed
integration, which it suggests ‘encompasses reversals along restrictions on the export of certain technologies and materials.
any and all of the different channels whereby countries engage Some countries, such as India, have also enacted restrictions on
with each other economically, including through trade, capital the export of certain foods. According to the Global Trade Alert,
flows, the movement of workers across national boundaries, the number of harmful global trade measures has increased
international payments, and multilateral cooperation to sharply in recent years (see Chart 11). Meanwhile, Donald Trump
provide global public goods’ (Aiyar et al. 2023). has talked about raising a 10% tariff on imports from all countries
if he is elected President in November.
The rapid pace of globalisation ended with the Global
Financial Crisis of 2008–9, with the world subsequently
switching from a period of rapid globalisation to what has been CHART 11: Global trade measures implemented*
commonly referred to as ‘Slowbalisation’ (see Chart 10). Global
trade as a share of GDP is now only modestly higher than in
2008. Within this, goods trade as a share of GDP has been
largely flat, although services trade has continued to increase.

CHART 10: Global trade to GDP

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

*Reporting lag adjusted

Source: Global Trade Alert

With ‘onshoring’, ‘nearshoring’, ‘friendshoring’ and supply

chain resilience moving to the top of policymakers’ agendas in
advanced economies in recent years, and strained geopolitics
raising the risk that the world may split into competing blocs,
we will be watching closely for any signs that ‘slowbalisation’ is
Source: OECD 2023 switching more decisively to deglobalisation in 2024 and beyond.
We will also closely monitor other areas of geoeconomic
Global trade relations deteriorated significantly with the advent fragmentation, with increasingly restrictive immigration policies
of the Trump administration and the trade war with China, as in advanced economies being a major risk. According to the IMF
well as restrictive U.S. measures against other countries. The (Aiyar et al 2023), increased geoeconomic fragmentation could
Biden administration has largely continued with the Trump-era have significant negative impacts on global GDP and productivity,
trade policies, and has enacted blocks on the export of key with emerging and less developed economies the worst hit.
technological products to China, while programmes such as
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) (2022) and The CHIPS and
Science Act (2022) have provisions that favour production WE WILL ALSO CLOSELY
domestically or in North America Free Trade Agreement MONITOR OTHER AREAS OF
(NAFTA) countries. In general, evidence points to quite a GEOECONOMIC FRAGMENTATION,
material fall in the share of U.S. imports from China over WITH INCREASINGLY RESTRICTIVE
recent years, with a rise in the share coming from Mexico and IMMIGRATION POLICIES IN
South-East Asia. Of course, part of that simply reflects Chinese ADVANCED ECONOMIES BEING
companies’ setting up production facilities in those countries. A MAJOR RISK.

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2024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – SLOW GROWTH, HIGH UNCERTAINTY | SECTION 3: THREE KEY TRENDS WE ARE WATCHING IN 2024

iii) Developments with AI5 breakthroughs have been made by rapidly expanding the size
The excitement about AI reached new heights in 2023. While of large language models (LLMs), but the question remains as
applications are largely in the early stages of adoption, to whether the next breakthrough will come from super-sizing
development continues rapidly. AI remains on the threshold or shrinking models. Smaller models built for specific domains
of transforming the landscape of business operations, offering – such as accountancy – may be more interesting, for adopters,
potential benefits for operational efficiency, cost savings, than fine-tuning a general model. Hardware and cost constraints
business process optimisation and beyond. also make the latter appealing from an innovation perspective.

At its most basic, AI is about using the strengths of computers These developments could also tender some answers to the
to undertake tasks that previously required human intelligence. big question: how will AI impact work and productivity? AI is
Accelerated by the latest hardware, AI can identify patterns and likely to serve as a catalyst for innovation in the business world
underlying structures across vast datasets with minimal supervision, if opportunities are recognised and training is prioritised. But
lending itself to a wide array of applications and notionally there will be gaps in adoption. Many organisations suffer from
supporting any activity that requires spotting patterns or outliers poor-quality data or related infrastructure that must first be
in data, eg, fraud detection. But AI can also be instrumental brought up to date before they can leverage the benefits of AI.
for enhancing capacity. Intelligent automation, for example, is In use, the application of AI also requires effective governance,
reshaping knowledge work by minimising manual workloads, protection, and evaluation processes, especially when private
reducing time and resources spent on repetitive data tasks. or proprietary data is in play. These considerations will, in part,
determine the immediacy of AI’s impact.
Generative AI tools, eg, ChatGPT, offer additional capabilities.
Chatbots are among the early examples, having been In the accountancy profession, we think AI is unlikely to destroy
employed to help manage client queries and even provide significant numbers of jobs. The automation of data entry
advice. But new generative models – with the ability to analyse and routine processing tasks, for example, does not mean
and output multiple types of data including text, imagery that those roles become entirely redundant, but it does mean
and numeric – could form the basis of personal assistance on that the tasks will change. It also means that expectations will
creative, research, coding and other activities. change as AI helps improve the accuracy of processes and
frees up more time to infer insights from data. In other words,
Perhaps the greatest achievement of generative AI is its how we do the work will change; and this means that skill sets
simplicity and approachability. ChatGPT will have been the first will need to adapt as well.
time that many users have interacted directly with AI. No longer
the realm of programmers, the ability to use natural language From a broader macroeconomic perspective, the fundamental
to prompt outputs is a game changer for user experience. question is whether AI represents a general-purpose technology
OpenAI’s announcement of a GPT-store allowing users to train like electricity or the internet, with the potential to provide a
their own mini-model could help uncover new use cases by much needed, and potentially significant, boost to productivity
enabling individuals to experiment on their own tasks. growth in economies across the world. At this moment, the jury
is still out but 2024 could offer an indication of how things are
2024 could see both an open-source boom and much greater likely to progress and the extent to which there might be wider
variety in the types and capabilities of models. Recent economic benefits from the technology in the near-term.

5 This section has been provided by Alistair Brisbourne, Head of Technology at ACCA.

14
Section 4:
How do CFOs see the world in 2024?
In this section, we interview seven CFOs from various industries across the globe, garnering their
bottom-up views on how they see the prospects for the global economy and their companies in 20246.
We asked them three questions:
i) What are your thoughts on the prospects for the global economy in 2024, as well as your own region?
ii) How will this impact your company?
iii) What are the risks and other key challenges facing your company in 2024 and beyond?

CFO Interviewee 1: Dan Crociata, CMA

CFO of US-based Endries International, an industrial distributor of fasteners to manufacturers across a wide
array of sectors – https://www.endries.com/

What are your thoughts on the prospects for the global automation opportunities using advanced technologies,
economy in 2024, as well as your own region? We are but it is trying to balance finding solutions that are the right
cautiously optimistic about the U.S. economic outlook for price and that solve our business-specific issues. We have
2024, expecting a soft landing rather than a recession. Interest also started experimenting with AI in various applications
rates coming down will be helpful. Growth is likely to pick up such as pricing, inventory management and supply chain
after the first quarter, with some acceleration in the second management, but there is still a need to see its more
half of the year. Although currently happening slowly, the practical applications.
reshoring or onshoring of manufacturing to North America will
What are the risks and other key challenges facing your
benefit us, given that our business is primarily in this region.
company in 2024 and beyond? Supply chains remain a risk
We are diversifying our own purchases of fasteners away from
if there are major geopolitical issues, given that we source
China towards countries like Vietnam and India.
40% of our parts from overseas. The people side will remain
How will this impact your company? We should benefit a risk given the aging workforce. A significant portion of our
from interest rate loosening which boosts our end markets, warehouse workforce is over 50 years old and younger workers
amid increased residential housing construction and greater are not coming in behind them. The evolving dynamics of the
demand for products from homeowners (eg, home electricity jobs market, amid the gig economy and demands for remote
generators). Talent will be a major challenge, with the inability working arrangements, has significant implications for talent
to hire enough warehouse workers even after the sharp acquisition and retention. Automation might serve as a partial
increases in their wages in recent years. We are exploring solution but won’t fully solve the problem.

6 The views expressed in these interviews are the personal views of the interviewees and do not necessarily reflect the views of the company they represent or ACCA.
We are incredibly grateful to the CFOs for providing their time and expertise for the interviews.

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2024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – SLOW GROWTH, HIGH UNCERTAINTY | SECTION 4: HOW DO CFOs SEE THE WORLD IN 2024?

CFO Interviewee 2: Anonymous interviewee

China-based CFO of a U.S.-based company in the medical industry

What are your thoughts on the prospects for the global firm and the industry. Meanwhile, there is pressure to produce
economy in 2024, as well as your own region? Generally locally in China rather than import the finished products
speaking, professionals in the finance industry, especially from our North American factories. This is driving increased
accountants, tend to be a little bit pessimistic! I am not very investment in China by the medical industry. There have been
optimistic on the macro economy. Each major country or some signs of improvement in relations between the major
region has their own unique issues, and I do not see solutions countries recently, which would be important for our, and
to these if people can’t work together, given the current other, industries. We also face increased competition from
trends towards supply chain diversification and protectionism. local companies in China, whose quality has improved sharply
and caught up with that of multinationals.
How will this impact your company? We do not expect a
material impact from cyclical economic trends on our firm or What are the risks and other key challenges facing your
the medical industry as a whole, but structural trends related company in 2024 and beyond? R&D is an issue, getting the
to trade are important. In both China and the U.S., there new product pipeline and combining it with AI technology.
is growing pressure to develop and produce things locally. AI integration is crucial for accelerating R&D and enhancing
Hence, we might face challenges both on the purchase and product quality through more accurate and faster diagnoses
sales side. For our North American manufacturing plants, eg, diagnostic imaging. But AI technology is not yet mature,
we buy raw materials from China to produce the finished and there are significant ethical considerations, especially in
products, but we can’t source cheaper alternatives from terms of responsibility for false diagnoses. Thus, the challenge
elsewhere of the same quality, so we will need to pay higher is to balance the economic benefits, the ethical issues and
prices. This will lead to higher inflation and will impact the provide a better service to the patient.

CFO Interviewee 3: Sandhya J, ACA

CFO of India-based healthcare provider, Narayana Health – https://www.narayanahealth.org/

What are your thoughts on the prospects for the global prospects. Pulling all this together, we are on the cusp of a
economy in 2024, as well as your own region? The global healthcare revolution. This is encouraging greater investments
inflation picture is improving. Interest rates are likely to in high quality infrastructure, digitisation, consumer focussed
remain stable, with cuts even possible, globally and in India. service offerings, and expansion into tier 2 and tier 3 cities.
Geopolitical issues are likely to be important amid elections All large healthcare companies are currently in a significant
in different countries. Meanwhile, India’s digital economy capital expenditure cycle. Our company is investing
will continue to attract investors and grow as a share of GDP. disproportionately in digitisation. We’ve also always worked
Given the huge population, technology-based solutions with a model where we want to be efficient and affordable.
are key to transforming people’s lives, governance, and Hence, a significant amount of our business expansion is
enterprise operations. occurring in cities where we already have capability and scale.

How will this impact your company? The key trends in What are the risks and other key challenges facing your
the Indian healthcare industry are services becoming more company in 2024 and beyond? For a country like India
phygital enabling holistic care, digitalisation (especially where tax receipts as a percentage of GDP are still very low, a
the strengthening of electronic medical records), and the universal healthcare system is not practical. The only solution
improving financial attractiveness of the sector. Digitalisation is to move eventually towards universal health insurance. One
of patient’s records will improve the quality of care, while of the problems with the growth of the healthcare industry
issues that previously may have been done physically can in India, has been the breakdown in the trust ecosystem.
be solved virtually. Electronic medical records are likely to Insurance companies don’t trust patients or hospitals, while
be a particular industry-disrupter in India, which will have patients don’t trust insurance companies or hospitals. We
the advantage of adopting more agile and fit for purpose believe that the only way to fix this issue is if we, a provider of
technologies which can more natively integrate advancements healthcare, also become a payer. We have been very recently
in AI and Cloud Computing. The industry’s attractiveness awarded a licence to start an insurance company. We want to
for investors has improved significantly, as higher incomes, focus on keeping our customers healthy. We will start small
a rising insured population, and other factors, boost its and build scale based on our learnings.

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2024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – SLOW GROWTH, HIGH UNCERTAINTY | SECTION 4: HOW DO CFOs SEE THE WORLD IN 2024?

CFO Interviewee 4: Fiona Nuwamanya, FCCA

ACCA Africa CFO of the year 2023, Co-founder, Director and CFO at Rocket Health, a Telemedicine company,
operating in East Africa – https://rockethealth.africa/

What are your thoughts on the prospects for the global of the slower growing market. As a company, one of our key
economy in 2024, as well as your own region? Global strategies this year will be to focus on partnerships that can
economic growth will be quite slow in 2024, dampened by drive business growth.
post-pandemic issues and the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine
What are the risks and other key challenges facing your
and the Middle East. Looking more specifically at Uganda,
company in 2024 and beyond? Digital technologies such as
over the last two to three years inflation has been coming
AI are changing the landscape including how patients receive
down compared to other regions and we have seen slight
healthcare and how employees deliver on tasks. This is an
growth in the economy. There is also a renewed expectation
area to keep an eye on in the next 12 months as this can be
of African economies performing better this year compared
a risk or a benefit to the business. In terms of challenges,
to last, with countries like Uganda benefitting from an easing
first, I would cite the increasing cost of finance. The cost of
in U.S. monetary policy, which will likely reduce domestic
R&D to drive growth in innovative businesses like ours, with
inflationary pressures and the cost of borrowing. But fiscal
a model that is still relatively new in the country or elsewhere
policy may be quite tight in Uganda as the government tries
in Africa, is an important factor, as it can be quite difficult to
to reduce its debt ratio.
convince traditional financing institutions or players to invest.
How will this impact your company? My expectations Second, the increasing cost of doing business. A significant
for 2024 are of course coloured by the industry I am in, share of the medications and supplies we use in providing
healthcare. The industry benefitted during the pandemic from services are imported, and these are occasionally impacted
increased financial investment and rising capital expenditure, by supply chain disruptions or rising import costs. Third is the
but this has since slowed, as has the willingness of consumers increasing cost of regulation and compliance, with the various
to prioritise healthcare spending. The latter has traditionally requirements changing and tightening in many instances. The
been an issue in Africa, with statistics showing about 56% increasing mobility of talent is also an issue, with younger
of Africans not being able to access healthcare services, workers wanting more job flexibility. Although medical
and one reason being affordability. The sector is also seeing workers have typically always worked in multiple places at the
a number of mergers and acquisitions between different same time, a new trend is emerging with non-medical staff
healthcare companies as they attempt to grab a larger share who are now seeking more flexibility as well.

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2024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – SLOW GROWTH, HIGH UNCERTAINTY | SECTION 4: HOW DO CFOs SEE THE WORLD IN 2024?

CFO Interviewee 5: Georgia Paphiti, FCCA

CFO for EMEA and UBS Europe SE, a major global financial services firm – https://www.ubs.com/global/en.html
What are your thoughts on the prospects for the global execute on integration plans at pace while planning for
economy in 2024, as well as your own region? The global the next milestones, and reinforce our balance sheet for all
economic landscape is complex. Over recent years, we have seasons including work towards cost base rightsizing.
experienced the pandemic, military conflicts, geopolitical
For our clients, UBS will focus on managing liquidity, investing
tensions, high inflation, rising interest rates, and surging
in quality assets, trading strategically in currencies and
government debts. 2024 feels like an extraordinary time in
commodities, hedging against market risks, and diversifying
history, and we should be cautious on the outlook for the
through alternative investments in line with our investor
year. High interest rates will put pressure on private sector
recommendations.
spending, while politics and geopolitics will play a very
important role. But on a more positive note, technology What are the risks and other key challenges facing your
and AI should continue to accelerate value creation across company in 2024 and beyond? The integration process with
many sectors. Turning to the Europe, Middle East and Africa Credit Suisse is a risk but at the same time offers a valuable
(EMEA) region, it is complex and diverse but at the same time opportunity for transformation and growth. We anticipate
dynamic. It will play an important role in future advances in the merger will streamline processes, optimize resources, and
technology and sustainability, and will benefit from lots of ultimately lead to enhanced client experiences and offerings.
strategic investment in the energy and technology areas. The new, combined service platform, unifying expertise in
strategic adaption and robust risk management, will solidify
How will this impact your company? The economic outlook
UBS’s position as a global financial leader.
for 2024, considering the various global factors and the
UBS specific situation, indicates a period of adaptation and In 2024 and beyond, UBS will navigate a landscape bringing
strategic manoeuvring for the bank. many opportunities and challenges. The uncertain interest
rate environment and monetary policy shifts present a unique
With central banks pausing interest rate hikes and
chance for UBS to showcase our adaptability and expertise
uncertainties regarding the optimal interest rate levels
in asset valuation, and market volatility management,
needed to achieve inflation targets, financial markets remain
potentially enhancing profitability and refining our investment
unpredictable. This environment will require UBS to navigate
strategies. Geopolitical developments, while challenging, also
cautiously, balancing the need for profitability with the risks of
provide us with an opportunity to strengthen our investment
a volatile interest rate landscape.
management and client advisory services to demonstrate the
In 2024, UBS aims to deliver underlying profitability, stay resilience and ability of strategic foresight in dynamic market
close to clients and help them navigate challenging markets, conditions UBS is known for.

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CFO Interviewee 6: William Tan Kwang Hwee, ACCA

CFO of Tiong Woon Corporation, a Singapore headquartered and listed heavy lift specialist and service provider
– https://www.tiongwoon.com/

What are your thoughts on the prospects for the global to seize opportunities despite the challenges. We maintain
economy in 2024, as well as your own region? The world a positive outlook for the business, expecting steady
is experiencing an extraordinary confluence of challenges. customer demand for our Heavy Lift and Haulage solutions
I see the global economy in 2024 being characterised by: in Singapore, as well as in key regional markets such as
(i) “higher-for-longer” interest rates, (ii) sluggish growth, India, Saudi Arabia, and Thailand. We believe there are other
and (iii) heightened volatility and uncertainty. Despite this opportunities in Saudi Arabia as the country embarks on its
rather sombre global picture, I see ASEAN as a relative modernisation plan to diversify away from the oil sector.
outperformer, continuing its positive trajectory over recent
What are the risks and other key challenges facing your
decades, and benefitting from the “China+1” strategies of
company in 2024 and beyond? We remain vigilant and
various companies. ASEAN is not homogeneous though,
mindful of risks, particularly in respect of contract, credit,
given country-specific idiosyncrasies. Singapore should be a
foreign exchange, geopolitical and other risks. It is also
stand-out performer in the bloc.
imperative that we continue to leverage technology, to
How will this impact your company? As with other provide better solutions to our customers, safely, efficiently
companies, we have had to contend with increasing cost and profitably. In terms of sustainability, we continue to
pressures, labour shortages and rising interest rates. Our make efforts to minimise our carbon footprint. One of our
industry is very capital intensive, and rising interest rates yards has turned “carbon-negative”, and we have acquired
increase refinancing costs for our customers, impact the electric pallet trucks and forklifts. We also adopted GRI
feasibility of new investments, and increase the pressure 2021 standards, and TCFD recommendations in terms of
from investors. Despite the challenging global backdrop, we governance, strategy, risk management, metrics and targets,
delivered robust revenue and profits growth in the previous in our recently released 2023 Sustainability Report, where
fiscal year, and continued to strengthen our balance sheet. we set out our ESG targets, as well as climate risks and
A strong balance sheet reduces borrowing costs, leads to opportunities. With respect to sustainability reporting, we are
better terms from our vendors, and leaves us well placed watching the rapidly evolving space closely.

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2024 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – SLOW GROWTH, HIGH UNCERTAINTY | SECTION 4: HOW DO CFOs SEE THE WORLD IN 2024?

CFO Interviewee 7: Jason Wang, FCCA, AICPA

Executive Director, CFO & COO of H&H Group, a Hong Kong headquartered and listed global health and
nutrition company – https://www.hh.global/#/Home

What are your thoughts on the prospects for the global How will this impact your company? In terms of people
economy in 2024, as well as your own region? Looking at resource management, we will invest a bit into the high growth
the markets where we operate, we see strong demand for markets such as Southeast Asia and the U.S. But overall, we
premium health and nutrition products in China, and expect will drive for operational efficiency improvement. For example,
continued growth driven by our adult and pet products. But we are harmonising the Enterprise Resource Planning systems
the declining birth rate is a challenge for our baby products. across most of our markets. We will also continue to push to
We are quite positive about the growth of the U.S. market boost the corporate culture, which we see as being important.
and feel quite confident that through product innovation
What are the risks and other key challenges facing your
and the expansion of our sales channels, we can outperform
company in 2024 and beyond? The number one risk is
the market. Turning to Australia and New Zealand, if global
demographics amid declining birth rates. Second is supply
demand for commodities is not that strong, the economic
chain risk given we operate in all these continents and have
recovery in Australia may not proceed as quickly as we would
a very complex global supply chain. Another challenge we
like. However, consumer demand for health products is very
have just encountered was due to global warming, the El Nino
strong and visitors are returning to Australia. Hence, we expect
effect, which has significantly reduced fish stocks and the
moderate growth in 2024. Regarding other markets, we expect
global fish oil supply. We have encountered double-digit cost
continued very strong expansion in Southeast Asia amid strong
increases for the fish oil we source. Meanwhile, an important
economic growth and improving living standards. We are also
future trend in the nutrition and wellness industry is expected
expanding in India and the Middle East, seeing quite strong
to be ‘Personalisation’, given different diets and DNAs.
demand there. Lastly, despite the economic challenges, we
Technologies including AI will help us develop personalised
expect our Europe business to be stable in 2024.
nutrition solutions.

20
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