Electricity2024 Analysisandforecastto2026
Electricity2024 Analysisandforecastto2026
2024
Analysis and forecast to 2026
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY
AGENCY
The IEA examines the IEA member IEA association
full spectrum countries: countries:
of energy issues
including oil, gas and Australia Argentina
coal supply and Brazil
Austria
demand, renewable
Belgium China
energy technologies,
electricity markets, Canada Egypt
energy efficiency, Czech Republic India
access to energy, Denmark Indonesia
demand side Estonia Kenya
management and Finland Morocco
much more. Through France Senegal
its work, the IEA Germany Singapore
advocates policies that Greece South Africa
will enhance the Hungary Thailand
reliability, affordability Ireland Ukraine
and sustainability of
Italy
energy in its
31 member countries, Japan
13 association Korea
countries and beyond. Lithuania
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Republic of Türkiye
This publication and any United Kingdom
map included herein are United States
without prejudice to the
status of or sovereignty over
any territory, to the
delimitation of international
frontiers and boundaries and
to the name of any territory, The European
city or area. Commission also
participates in the
work of the IEA
Abstract
Given these trends, the International Energy Agency’s Electricity 2024 is essential
reading. It offers a deep and comprehensive analysis of recent policies and market
developments, and provides forecasts through 2026 for electricity demand, supply
and CO2 emissions. The IEA’s electricity sector report, which has been published
regularly since 2020, provides insight into the evolving generation mix. In addition,
this year’s report features in-depth analysis on the drivers of recent declines in
electricity demand in Europe; the data centre sector’s impact on electricity
consumption; and recent developments in the global nuclear power sector.
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Electricity 2024 Acknowledgements, contributors and credits
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Acknowledgements, contributors
and credits
This study was prepared by the Gas, Coal and Power Markets (GCP) Division of
the International Energy Agency (IEA). It was designed and directed by Eren Çam,
Energy Analyst for Electricity.
The main authors are: Eren Çam, Zoe Hungerford, Niklas Schoch, Francys Pinto
Miranda, Carlos David Yáñez de León.
Keisuke Sadamori, director of the IEA Energy Markets and Security (EMS)
Directorate and Dennis Hesseling, Head of GCP, provided expert guidance and
advice. Valuable comments and guidance were provided by other senior
management within the IEA, in particular, Laura Cozzi and Tim Gould. In addition,
expert guidance and valuable input of Carlos Fernández Álvarez, Senior Energy
Analyst, is greatly appreciated.
The report also benefited from analysis, data and input from Syrine El Abed,
Nadim Abillama, Jenny Birkeland, Javier Jorquera Copier, Keith Everhart, Carole
Etienne, Stavroula Evangelopoulou, Takeshi Furukawa, Astha Gupta, Craig Hart,
Julian Keutz, Jinpyung Kim, Tae-Yoon Kim, Pablo Hevia-Koch, Rena Kuwahata,
Arne Lilienkamp, Rita Madeira, Gergely Molnár, John Moloney, Yu Nagatomi,
Ranya Oualid, Camille Paillard, Isaac Portugal, Brendan Reidenbach, Uwe
Remme, Frederick Ritter, Max Schönfisch and Gianluca Tonolo.
IEA colleagues across the agency provided valuable input, comments and
feedback, in particular, Heymi Bahar, Alessandro Blasi, Toril Bosoni, Stéphanie
Bouckaert, Elizabeth Connelly, Gaia Guadagnini, Ciarán Healy, Paul Hugues,
Martin Küppers, Yannick Monschauer, Apostolos Petropoulos, Leonie Staas,
Anthony Vautrin, Brent Wanner and Jacques Warichet.
The authors would also like to thank Diane Munro for skilfully editing the
manuscript and the IEA Communication and Digital Office, in particular, Jethro
Mullen, Julia Horowitz and Astrid Dumond. We also thank Einar Einarsson for his
assistance on setting up the peer review.
Many experts from outside of the IEA reviewed the report and provided valuable
input and comments. They include:
Michel Berthélemy (NEA), Sarah Keay-Bright (ESO), Bram Claeys (RAP), Brent
Dixon (INL), Ganesh Doluweera (CER), Fernando Dominguez (EU DSO Entity),
Carlos Finat (KAEL), Peter Fraser (independent consultant), Rafael Muruais
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Electricity 2024 Acknowledgements, contributors and credits
Analysis and forecast to 2026
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PAGE | 5
Electricity 2024 Table of Contents
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Table of Contents
PAGE | 6
Electricity 2024 Table of Contents
Analysis and forecast to 2026
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Electricity 2024 Executive summary
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Executive summary
Global electricity demand is expected to rise at a faster rate over the next
three years, growing by an average of 3.4% annually through 2026. The gains
will be driven by an improving economic outlook, which will contribute to faster
electricity demand growth both in advanced and emerging economies. Particularly
in advanced economies and China, electricity demand will be supported by the
ongoing electrification of the residential and transport sectors, as well as a notable
expansion of the data centre sector. The share of electricity in final energy
consumption is estimated to have reached 20% in 2023, up from 18% in 2015.
While this is progress, electrification needs to accelerate rapidly to meet the
world’s decarbonisation targets. In the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050
Scenario, a pathway aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, electricity’s
share in final energy consumption nears 30% in 2030.
Electricity consumption from data centres, artificial intelligence (AI) and the
cryptocurrency sector could double by 2026. Data centres are significant
drivers of growth in electricity demand in many regions. After globally consuming
an estimated 460 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2022, data centres’ total electricity
consumption could reach more than 1 000 TWh in 2026. This demand is roughly
equivalent to the electricity consumption of Japan. Updated regulations and
technological improvements, including on efficiency, will be crucial to moderate
the surge in energy consumption from data centres.
PAGE | 8
Electricity 2024 Executive summary
Analysis and forecast to 2026
electricity demand rose by 6.4%, driven by the services and industrial sectors.
With the country’s economic growth expected to slow and become less reliant on
heavy industry, the pace of Chinese electricity demand growth eases to 5.1% in
2024, 4.9% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026 in our forecasts. Even so, the total increase
in China’s electricity demand through 2026 of about 1 400 TWh is more than half
of the European Union’s current annual electricity consumption. Electricity
consumption per capita in China already exceeded that of the European Union at
the end of 2022 and is set to rise further. The rapidly expanding production of solar
PV modules and electric vehicles, and the processing of related materials, will
support ongoing electricity demand growth in China while the structure of its
economy evolves.
While electricity use per capita in India and Southeast Asia is rapidly rising,
it has been effectively stagnant in Africa for more than three decades. Per
capita consumption in Africa even declined in recent years as the population grew
faster than electricity supply was made available, and we only expect it to recover
to its 2010-15 levels by the end of 2026 at the earliest. Thirty years ago, a person
in Africa consumed more electricity on average than someone living in India or
Southeast Asia. However, strong increases in electricity demand and supply in
India and Southeast Asia in recent decades – which have gone hand in hand with
a boom in economic development – have transformed these regions at a
spectacular pace. Meanwhile, Africa's per capita electricity consumption in 2023
was half that of India and 70% lower than in Southeast Asia. Our forecast for Africa
for the 2024-26 period anticipates average annual growth in total electricity
demand of 4%, double the mean growth rate observed between 2017 and 2023.
Two-thirds of this growth in demand is set to be met by expanding renewables,
with the remainder covered mostly by natural gas.
Electricity demand in the United States fell by 1.6% in 2023 after increasing
2.6% in 2022, but it is expected to recover in the 2024-26 outlook period. A
key reason for the decline was milder weather in 2023 compared with 2022,
though a slowdown in the manufacturing sector was also a factor. We forecast a
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Electricity 2024 Executive summary
Analysis and forecast to 2026
PAGE | 10
Electricity 2024 Executive summary
Analysis and forecast to 2026
PAGE | 11
Electricity 2024 Executive summary
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Asia remains the main driver of growth in nuclear power, with the region’s
share of global nuclear generation forecast to reach 30% in 2026. Asia is set
to surpass North America as the region with the largest installed nuclear capacity
by the end of 2026, with a large number of plants currently under construction
expected to be completed by then. More than half of new reactors expected to
become operational during the outlook period are in China and India. Nuclear
power has seen particularly strong growth in China over the past decade, with
capacity additions of about 37 gigawatts (GW), equivalent to almost two-thirds of
its current nuclear capacity. This resulted in China’s share in global nuclear
generation rising from 5% in 2014 to about 16% in 2023. China started the
commercial operation of its first fourth-generation reactor in December 2023,
further underscoring the country's nuclear power advances.
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Electricity 2024 Executive summary
Analysis and forecast to 2026
The CO2 intensity of global electricity generation is set to fall at twice the
rate recorded in the pre-pandemic period. The forecasted average decline of
4% in CO2 intensity between 2023 and 2026 is double the 2% observed in the
period between 2015 and 2019. The European Union is expected to record the
highest rate of progress in reducing emissions intensity, averaging an
improvement of 13% per year. This is followed by China, with annual
improvements forecast at 6%, and the United States at 5%. The decline in the CO2
intensity of electricity generation means that emissions savings via the
electrification of transport, heating and industry will become even more
substantial.
PAGE | 13
Electricity 2024 Executive summary
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Extreme weather events triggered major power outages in 2023 in the United
States and India. This underlined the need to boost resilience as weather impacts
on power systems increase, with both supply and demand becoming more
weather-dependent. Insufficient power capacity, fuel supply challenges and grid-
related technical issues also continued to cause significant power shortages in
many regions. The majority of these outages were observed in emerging
economies such as Pakistan, Kenya and Nigeria, which are particularly affected
by insufficient electricity supply, infrastructure problems and strained grids in the
face of rising power demand. Expanded, stronger grids would not only ensure
reliable electricity but also serve as a vital backbone for integrating renewables
into power systems. Improving data collection, digitalisation and greater data
transparency regarding outages is also essential to provide better insight into why
faults occurred and to help develop preventative measures.
Specific operating measures and new markets for ensuring the stability of
power systems are becoming more common. Countries with high shares of
variable renewable generation are implementing mechanisms to ensure a steady
power system frequency. Some regions are establishing minimum requirements
for system inertia, a property typically provided by conventional generators with
spinning rotors that helps enhance the power system’s resilience during
disturbances. Additionally, various countries including the United Kingdom, Ireland
and Australia have been introducing markets and measures such as fast
frequency response and similar services that stabilise the power system rapidly
after disruptions. Battery storage systems can provide such services for grid
stability while enhancing system flexibility, thus playing a crucial role in integrating
renewable energy sources.
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Global trends
15%
29 900
29 100
85%
28 300
27 500
26 700
2022 - + 2023 + 2026
China India Southeast Asia Rest of world Advanced economies
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Advanced economies grouping in this chart excludes Mexico and Türkiye.
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
About 85% of the additional electricity through 2026 is set to come from outside
advanced economies, mostly in People’s Republic of China (hereafter, “China”),
India and Southeast Asia. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) October 2023
outlook projects a gradual economic recovery for advanced economies, with the
2023 GDP growth rate of 1.5% followed by 1.4% in 2024 and an annual average
of 1.8% in 2025-2026. By contrast, for emerging economies, the IMF projects
sustained robust growth of an average annual 4%, or slightly higher at 4.1%,
during 2024-2026, in line with the estimated 4% in 2023.
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
PAGE | 16
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
PAGE | 17
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Total electricity demand (left), population (centre), and electricity consumption per
capita (right) in China, European Union, and the United States, 1990-2026
12 000 1 500 15 000
Million people
0 0 0
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
China European Union United States
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: The figures for 2024-2026 are forecast values. Historical data and forecast for population are from World Bank
(2022).
Electricity demand in the United States, the world’s second largest consumer
behind China, declined by 1.6% in 2023, after 2.6% growth in 2022. A major
contributor to the downturn was the milder weather in 2023 compared to 2022. A
slowdown in the manufacturing sector was also a factor, albeit with significantly
less impact than the weather. While record high summer temperatures in Texas
drove up cooling demand, overall summer weather was milder in 2023 compared
to last year. Similarly, winter months were also warmer, with the lowest number of
heating degree days recorded since 2012. We forecast a moderate rebound in
demand of 2.5% in 2024, assuming normal weather conditions, followed by an
average growth rate of 1% in 2025-2026 due to continued electrification and strong
growth in the data centre sector. We expect more than one-third of the additional
US electricity demand out to 2026 to come from the expanding data centres.
In the European Union, following a 3.1% decline in 2022, electricity demand fell
by a further 3.2% in 2023. We anticipate a return to growth in 2024 of 1.8%,
assuming a partial recovery in the industry sector given more moderate energy
prices and expanding electrification of the transportation and heating sectors. EU
electricity demand is forecast to grow on average by 2.5% annually during the
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Total electricity demand (left), population (centre), and electricity consumption per
capita (right) in Africa, Southeast Asia, and India, 1990-2026
2 000 2 000 2 500
Million people
0 0 0
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: The figures for 2024-2026 are forecast values. Historical data and forecast for population are from World Bank
(2022).
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
As of 2023, 600 million people, or more than 40% of the African population lacked
access to electricity, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa. A common solution to
electricity access in Africa has been off-grid gasoline or diesel generators as they
present low upfront costs in contrast to the cost of connection to the grid. However,
their operating costs have significantly increased, especially since 2021 after oil
prices soared. Additionally, since 2015 the adoption of decentralised modular
solar home systems (SHS) has steadily increased. Countries like Ghana and
Kenya increased their SHS capacity by more than twenty times from 2015 to 2019.
SHS providers have enabled the system implementation through financial
incentives such as a pay-as-you-go business model.
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
2 561
2 551
2 550 +12
-25 +29
+19
2 500 -55
+37
-22
2 450
+72
-56
2 393
2 400
2 350
2021 Demand Demand 2023 Demand 2026
decline decline recovery
2022 2023 2024-26
The six-month moving average for the EU wholesale electricity price was almost
45% lower in the second half of 2023 compared to the first half, stabilising around
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
EUR 100/MWh in the fourth quarter. Similarly, the year-on-year fall in total
electricity demand stopped from September onward and recovered slightly in
November and December, after declines compared to 2022 had been recorded in
every month up to that point.
250 350
USD/MWh
TWh
240 300
230 250
220 200
210 150
200 100
190 50
180 0
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
Jan
Jun
Feb
Jul
Apr
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Mar
May
2021
2022 weather-corrected demand EU wholesale electricity price (6MMA)
2023 weather-corrected demand US wholesale electricity price (6MMA)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: In the chart on the left, 2022 and 2023 demand is weather-corrected to the base year of 2021. This means what
demand would have been in 2022 and 2023 if the weather was the same as in 2021. The 2021 demand profile corresponds
to the realised net demand. In the chart on the right, the plotted average wholesale prices are 6-month moving averages
(6MMA).
Source: IEA analysis based on data from Eurostat (2023) and EIA (2023).
Assuming energy prices remain relatively moderate and the economic outlook
improves over the forecast period, we expect electricity demand in the industry
sector to start recovering gradually from 2024 onward. Nevertheless, some
permanent electricity demand destruction has already occurred, especially in
energy-intensive chemical and primary metal industries, and there is still
significant uncertainty about how much of the reductions of the last two years will
be temporary or permanent.
PAGE | 22
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
aluminium smelter can cost up to EUR 400 million (USD 394 million). Hence, it is
likely some of the temporary shutdowns to date will be followed by permanent
closures.
The chemical industry has been severely affected from elevated energy costs,
with the risks of permanent closures compounded by reduced competitiveness as
China dominates growth. Producers such as Yara, Dow, INEOS, Grupa Azoty,
among many others, curtailed production of chemical products such as
polyethylene, ammonia, urea, nitrates and NPK (nitrogen, phosphorus, and
potassium) fertilisers. Large chemical producers such as BASF shut down plants
in part due to high energy costs. This included the closure of caprolactam,
ammonia, cyclohexanol, cyclohexanone, soda ash, toluene diisocyanate and
precursor plants at its Ludwigshafen site, as well as fertiliser facilities. The site has
an annual electricity consumption of around 6 TWh, and has plans to reduce their
emissions by 5%. Assuming a similar 5% reduction in energy consumption, this
amounts to 0.3 TWh of permanent electricity demand reductions.
20 20%
TWh
15 15%
10 10%
5 5%
0 0%
-5 -5%
-10 -10%
-15 -15%
-20 -20%
Change in electricity consumption (left axis) Percent change in industrial output (right axis)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from Eurostat, Worldsteel, International Aluminium Institute and CEFIC.
The European primary metal industry was hit especially hard by soaring
electricity prices due to the energy-intensive nature of the production process. For
primary aluminium, for example, electricity costs generally make up about 40% of
the cost of production. Considering the ongoing curtailments and announced
shutdowns until end of 2023, our analysis shows the loss in EU annual electricity
demand, cumulating the closures since 2020, to be about 23 TWh in the
considered primary metal industries of aluminium, zinc, steel, and silicon.
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
24
TWh
20
16
12
0
2021 2022 2023
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Estimates are based on announcements of permanent and indefinite plant closures, and production curtailments.
The numbers are to be interpreted as the structural demand destruction due to production losses compared to the
reference period 2020. Realised changes of demand in the year of closure can differ due to the exact timing of the closure
within that year. Silicon electricity demand considers silicon metals, silicon manganese, polysilicon and silicon-based
alloys.
Source: IEA analysis of company data, national statistics and news reports.
PAGE | 24
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
February 2022, doubling its aluminium recycling capacity with the addition of
350 kt. Romania’s Alro extended its aluminium recycling capacity following the
commissioning of its new recycling facility with an annual capacity of 60 kt in
September 2023.
Three zinc smelting factories shut down in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands,
equivalent to 580 kt of production capacity, and two in Belgium and France
reduced production by 50% each. These reductions in zinc production correspond
to an estimated yearly electricity demand loss of almost 4 TWh. Shutdowns and
production reductions in silicon and silicon-based alloys from the plants of
Ferroglobe in Spain and France are estimated to similarly account for a loss of
annual electricity demand of almost 2 TWh. The steel sector lost almost 4 Mt of
capacity, equivalent to an estimated 2 TWh of electricity demand, with Lech
steelworks shutting down completely in Germany and ArcelorMittal's blast
furnaces in France idling.
High energy costs for small and medium-sized companies are particularly
problematic if they are also facing international competition, as relatively higher
EU energy costs decrease their competitiveness. A survey conducted in 2023 by
the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce found that one-third of the
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
country’s companies that were considering investing abroad cited concerns about
high energy cost as a disadvantage. For example, the manufacturer of traditional
Christmas sweets Lambertz is considering withdrawing its production operations
in Germany, stating that its international customers are reportedly unable to accept
the rising prices. The glass manufacturer Heinz-Glass, which supplies bottles for
the international perfume industry, has recently indefinitely postponed its plans to
increase production capacities, citing concerns over high energy cost in the future.
Outside the energy-intensive sectors, some smaller businesses were also strongly
hit by soaring energy bills, often without the financial buffer that large companies
tend to have. Particularly affected, for example, are bakeries, where businesses
scrambled to adjust operations for energy saving or decided to file for insolvency
under the pressure of rising electricity prices. Many countries, such as France,
Germany, Poland and Spain, introduced measures to dampen the negative effect
on local businesses. On a European level, emergency interventions included a
revenue cap of inframarginal producers at EUR 180/MWh and redistribution of
excess profits in the oil, gas, coal and refinery sectors.
PAGE | 26
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
40% 200%
30% 150%
20% 100%
10% 50%
0% 0%
-10% -50%
-20% -100%
-30% -150%
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
PAGE | 27
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
150
120
90
60
30
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Russia Ukraine Brazil United States China India Other Europe Rest of world
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: The indirect electricity imports of selected energy-intensive goods include chemicals, primary aluminium, crude
steel, paper pulp and cement. Indirect electricity imports in the form of energy-intensive goods are estimated as the
electricity required to manufacture the imported product in the European Union based on the electricity intensity of
production values in the European Union. The 2023 values are estimated based on Q1-Q3 2023 data and analysis of latest
market trends.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from EU trade since 1999 by SITC and Eurostat (2023).
There have been also changes with respect to where these energy-intensive
products came from. For example, in order to substitute the loss of crude steel
imports from Ukraine following the Russian invasion, imports from China, Brazil,
India, and other countries increased in 2022.
Sanction-hit Russia has seen a sharp drop in exports to the European Union in
the energy-intensive industries. The share of Russia in the indirect electricity
imports from these energy-intensive goods is estimated to have decreased from
18% in 2019 and 14% in 2021, to 9% in 2023. As sanctions entered into force
gradually over the course of 2023, Russia was still one of the largest sources of
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
TWh
TWh
25 50
20 40
15 30
10 20
5 10
0 0
Rest of
world
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Indirect electricity imports in the form of energy-intensive goods are calculated as the electricity required to
manufacture the imported product in the European Union, based on the electricity intensity of EU production values.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from Eurostat (2023), EU trade since 1999 by SITC.
PAGE | 29
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
PAGE | 30
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Future trends of the data centre sector are complex to navigate, as technological
advancements and digital services evolve rapidly. Depending on the pace of
deployment, range of efficiency improvements as well as artificial intelligence and
cryptocurrency trends, we expect global electricity consumption of data centres,
cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence to range between 620-1 050 TWh in
2026, with our base case for demand at just over 800 TWh – up from 460 TWh in
2022. This corresponds to an additional 160 TWh up to 590 TWh of electricity
demand in 2026 compared to 2022, roughly equivalent to adding at least one
Sweden or at most one Germany.
Global electricity demand from data centres, AI, and cryptocurrencies, 2019-2026
1 200
TWh
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Includes traditional data centres, dedicated AI data centres, and cryptocurrency consumption; excludes demand
from data transmission networks. The base case scenario has been used in the overall forecast in this report. Low and high
case scenarios reflect the uncertainties in the pace of deployment and efficiency gains amid future technological
developments.
Sources: Joule (2023), de Vries, The growing energy footprint of AI; CCRI Indices (carbon-ratings.com); The Guardian,
Use of AI to reduce data centre energy use; Motors in data centres; The Royal Society, The future of computing beyond
Moore’s Law; Ireland Central Statistics Office, Data Centres electricity consumption 2022; and Danish Energy Agency,
Denmark’s energy and climate outlook 2018.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
China's State Grid Energy Research Institute expects electricity demand in the
country’s data centre sector to double to 400 TWh by 2030, compared to 2020.
We forecast electricity consumption from data centres in China to reach around
300 TWh by 2026. Regulations are being updated to promote sustainable
practices in current and future data centres to align them with decarbonisation
strategies. A major source of data centre growth is expected to come from the
rapid expansion of 5G networks and the Internet of Things (IoT).
PAGE | 32
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
The rapid expansion of the data centre sector and the elevated electricity demand
can pose challenges for the electricity system. To safeguard the system’s stability
and reliability, Ireland’s Commission for Regulation of Utilities published in late
2021 its decision on the new requirements applicable to new and ongoing data
centre grid connection applications with three assessment criteria to determine if
the connection offer can be made. First, the location of the data centre with respect
to whether they are within a constrained region of the electricity system. Second,
the ability of the data centre to bring onsite dispatchable generation and/or storage
equivalent, at least, to their demand. Third, the ability of the data centre to provide
flexibility in their demand by reducing it when requested by a system operator. For
the third clause, data centre operators that offer their servers for hire will have to
update their contracts to reflect the new regulations. These requirements
showcase the local government’s inclination to grant connections to those
operators that can make efficient use of the grid and incorporate renewable energy
sources with a view of decarbonisation targets.
Estimated data centre electricity consumption and its share in total electricity demand
in selected regions in 2022 and 2026
330 6% 18 42%
TWh
TWh
275 5% 15 35%
220 4% 12 28%
165 3% 9 21%
110 2% 6 14%
55 1% 3 7%
0 0% 0 0%
United States European China Denmark Ireland
Union
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Includes traditional data centres and dedicated AI data centres, excludes consumption from cryptocurrencies and
data transmission networks.
Sources: IEA, Data Centres and Data Transmission Networks; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United Stated Data
Center Energy Usage Report; Ireland Central Statistics Office, Data Centres Metered Electricity Consumption 2022; Danish
Energy Agency, Denmark’s Energy and Climate Outlook 2018; China’s State Council, Green data centres in focus;
European Commission, Energy-efficient Cloud Computing Technologies and Policies for an Eco-friendly Cloud Market;
Joule (2023), Alex de Vries, The growing energy footprint of artificial intelligence; and Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute,
Indices.
PAGE | 33
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
In the United States, the largest data centre hubs are located in California, Texas
and Virginia. In the case of Virginia, their economy was dominated in 2021 by the
data centre sector expansion, attracting 62% of all of the state’s new investments
and providing more than 5 000 new jobs. Northern Virginia is the largest data
centre market in the country, collecting USD 1 billion in local tax revenues per
year, with growth trending higher as companies, such as Amazon’s planned
USD 35 billion expansion by 2040, continue to increase their investment in the
state. New legislation is aimed at tightening regulations on data centre
developments, including zoning rules, mandatory environment and resource
impact assessments, as well as guidelines on water usage. In US northeastern
states, the regional transmission organisation PJM expects data centres to
increasingly drive electricity demand, forecasting a rise in summer peak load from
151 GW in 2024 to 178 GW by 2034.
PAGE | 34
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
95% market share. In 2023, NVIDIA shipped 100 000 units that consume an
average of 7.3 TWh of electricity annually. By 2026, the AI industry is expected to
have grown exponentially to consume at least ten times its demand in 2023.
Estimated electricity demand from traditional data centres, dedicated AI data centres
and cryptocurrencies, 2022 and 2026, base case
1 000
TWh
800
600
400
200
0
2022 2026
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Data centre electricity demand excludes consumption from data network centres.
Sources: IEA forecast based on data and projections from Data Centres and Data Transmission Networks; Joule (2023),
Alex de Vries, The growing energy footprint of artificial intelligence; Crypto Carbon Ratings Institute, Indices; Ireland
Central Statistics Office, Data Centres Metered Electricity Consumption 2022; and Danish Energy Agency, Denmark’s
Energy and Climate Outlook 2018.
PAGE | 35
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
In the United States, the Energy Act of 2020 requires the federal government to
conduct studies on the energy and water use of data centres, to create applicable
energy efficiency metrics and good practices that promote efficiency, along with
public reporting of historical data centre energy and water usage. The Department
of Energy (DOE) is supporting the local production of semiconductors and is
funding the development of more efficient semiconductors over the next two
decades. More efficient semiconductors reduce cooling requirements, thus
supporting the decarbonisation of the sector. At a state level, regulators in Virginia
and Oregon have already imposed requirements for better sustainability practices
and carbon emissions reductions.
Chinese regulators will require all data centres acquired by public organisations to
improve their energy efficiency and be entirely powered by renewable energy by
2032, starting with a 5% share mandate for renewables in 2023.
PAGE | 36
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
In the long term, replacing supercomputers with quantum computers could reduce
electricity demand of the sector if the transition is supported by efficient cooling
systems. Quantum computers deliver more and faster processing power than
supercomputers while consuming less energy, but they need to be cooled to
temperatures near absolute zero (-273°C) while supercomputers can operate at
21°C.
Data centres are evolving towards more sustainable and efficient operations,
including transitioning to Hyperscale Data Centres, which can run large-scale
operations without a significant increase in electricity consumption. This transition
is also financially attractive, with the global market for Hyperscale Data Centres
projected to double in size by 2026 compared to 2023, reaching a value of
USD 212 billion.
PAGE | 37
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
15 10%
TWh
12 8%
9 6%
6 4%
3 2%
0 0%
2019
2020
2021
2022
2019
2020
2021
2022
2019
2020
2021
2022
2019
2020
2021
2022
2019
2020
2021
2022
Germany Spain Italy Brazil Japan
Distributed PV self-consumption in TWh (left axis) Share in total demand (right axis)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Source: IEA estimates based on data and information from various sources; Federal Network Agency (Germany),
Bundesnetzagentur; Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection (Germany), BMWK; Strom-Report, Photovoltaic
in Germany; APPA (Spain), Self-consumption yearly report; IEA, Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme; Terna, (Italy);
EPE (Brazil), Brazilian distributed generation.
PAGE | 38
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
consumers. The new rules allow stakeholders to access historical smart meter
data from 2019 onwards, including near-real-time data.
Smart meters not only enable better and more detailed data collection, which can
be used for an improved assessment of self-consumption, among other things,
but can also enable considerable cost savings. For example, in 2018 alone, with
an installation cost of EUR 180-200, smart meters in the European Union have
reportedly allowed yearly savings of EUR 280 per metering point on average
among the member states, which are based on direct and indirect benefits for
consumers. Direct consumer benefits derive from an observed behavioural
change in energy consumption triggered by the awareness of the granular data
from smart meters. Additionally, timely information about dynamic tariffs motivates
consumers to shift their energy consumption to times when is most economically
convenient. Indirect benefits are enabled by an improvement on the utility’s
operations, for example, by remote management of the metering system.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 39
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
32 500
32 000
31 500
31 000
30 500
30 000
29 500
29 000
28 500
2022 - + 2023 - + 2026
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 40
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
2 000
TWh
1 500
1 000
500
- 500
-1 000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources. The figures for 2024-2026 are
forecast values.
Over the forecast period, coal’s share in global electricity generation is set to drop
to below one-third from 36% in 2023, marking another significant milestone. Coal-
fired generation is expected to have peaked in 2023, with 1.6% year-on-year
growth, after which it is set to post a decline of 3% in 2024, assuming a recovery
in hydropower generation from the drought-induced low levels of 2023. This is
forecast to be followed by a slow structural decline of around 1% on average in
2025-2026 under normal weather conditions. By contrast, following an increase of
0.5% in 2023, global gas-fired generation is expected to continue to rise at an
average annual growth rate of less than 1% out to 2026. This will be supported by
coal-to-gas switching in various regions, with additional LNG supply becoming
available from 2025 onward. As clean electricity supply continues to expand
rapidly, the share of fossil fuels in global generation is forecast to contract from
61% in 2023 to 54% in 2026. This is the first time fossil share in electricity
generation will dip below 60% and decline at a pace never seen before according
to the IEA records dating back more than five decades.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 41
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Evolution of the shares of low-emissions sources vs. fossil fuels in global electricity
generation (left), and the annual change of fossil fuel share (right), 1975-2026
100% 3%
90% 2%
80% 1%
70%
0%
60%
-1%
50%
-2%
40%
30% -3%
20% -4%
10% -5%
0% -6%
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
Share of renewables & nuclear Annual change of fossil fuel share
Share of fossil fuels Trend
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Given India’s rapid increase in demand for electricity, coal-fired power generation
is expected to rise by an average 2.5% annually in 2024-2026. At the same time,
renewable generation will accelerate, with an average annual growth rate of 13%
over the period.
Southeast Asia is another region with new coal-fired capacities coming online
amid significant demand growth. Coal-fired generation is set to increase each year
on average about 4% out to 2026. Renewables are expected to grow at a higher
average 7% rate and gas-fired output at about 5%
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 42
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
TWh
TWh
800 160
600 120
400 80
200 40
0 0
- 200 - 40
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 43
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
In 2022 and 2023 many countries placed the phasing in or expansion of nuclear
power at the centre of their strategies to reach climate policy objectives, sparking
a significant revival of global interest in nuclear energy. The IEA’s updated Net
Zero Roadmap shows nuclear energy more than doubling by 2050,
complementing renewable deployment, and easing the pressure on critical
mineral supply. With a minority of European countries currently planning to phase
out nuclear energy, many emerging and a number of advanced economies are
planning to phase in or expand nuclear energy generation. Based on the number
of nuclear power plants that are currently under construction and new ones that
are being planned, the growth in nuclear power is so far mainly in Asia.
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026
IEA. CC BY 4.0
Note: The 2026 forecast is based on projects currently under construction and expected to be operational by the end of the
period.
PAGE | 44
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
capacity to the current stock of 370 GW. The World Nuclear Association estimates
that, as of November 2023, 68 GW was under construction, with a further 109 GW
currently planned and 353 GW proposed. In addition to the reactors currently
under construction, even if all these planned and proposed projects are realised,
reaching the goal of the declaration would require an additional 210 GW to reach
the announced objective by 2050.
240
210
180
150
120
90
60
30
0
China India Russia European United Japan United Rest of
Union Kingdom States world
PAGE | 45
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Technology providers of currently operational reactors (left) and of reactors that are
currently under construction or in planning (right)
450 180
Number of reactors
400 160
350 140
300 120
250 100
200 80
150 60
100 40
50 20
0 0
Operational Under construction Planned
Japan is set to continue its revival of nuclear energy as public opinion starts to
favour the restart of nuclear reactors for the first time since the Fukushima
incident. The current plans indicate a steady increase in operating capacity
through 2024-2026, and the eventual goal for nuclear to account for 20% of the
energy mix by 2030. Specifically, the Shimane Unit 2 reactor is planned to restart
in August 2024, while the target to complete necessary safety adjustments at the
Onagawa Unit 2 is also set for 2024. Further restarts, such as Tokai 2 and Shika
2, scheduled for 2025 and 2026, have been delayed but remain on the agenda as
a central pillar of Japan’s strategy to meet its emission reduction targets.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 46
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
PAGE | 47
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
plant in Pomerania was granted in July 2023, and construction is set to start in
2026. The second reactor recently gained approval in November 2023, where two
units are expected to supply 22 TWh annually from 2035 onwards.
Ukraine continues its efforts to expand its nuclear capacity without reliance on
Russia. In June 2022, Ukrainian energy provider Energoatom signed an
agreement to extend the number of planned reactors provided by Westinghouse
from five to nine. Further, in January 2023, the Cabinet approved plans for
construction of two new reactors, Khmelnitsky 5 and 6, which are expected to be
connected to the grid by 2030 and 2032, respectively.
Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Czechia, Hungary, India, Belarus, Canada, Finland, France, Iran, Japan,
the Netherlands, Pakistan, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Switzerland
Slovenia, Korea, Sweden, UAE, Ukraine, United
Kingdom, Argentina
IEA. CC BY 4.0
Sources: World Nuclear Association and news reports.
PAGE | 48
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
The first reactor of the newest US nuclear power plant, Vogtle 3, went into
commercial operation in 2023, with the second Vogtle 4 unit expected to follow in
early 2024. The plant construction took twice as long as expected. After
construction commenced in 2009, the two units were initially scheduled to start
operations in 2016 and 2017. However, with Vogtle-3 only connected to the grid
in late 2023 and Vogtle-4 now scheduled for early 2024, the construction took
14 years to complete, double the initial time frame, resulting in a cost overshoot of
USD 17 billion of an initial budget of USD 14 billion.
France’s newest reactor in Flamanville, now scheduled to deliver its first electricity
in 2024, was initially planned to be finished in 2016, and based on the most recent
cost estimates it is now more than quadruple the initial budget. In Hinkley Point C,
a joint project between the French EDF and Chinese CGN, the Chinese firm
announced a freeze in payments in December 2023 after cost overruns reached
a level that allowed the Chinese firm to refuse participation in the additional cost.
EDF affirmed the project will be completed nonetheless, taking on the financial
burden.
Through cutting construction times and delays, and with the extensive experience
of the construction of multiple plants in recent years, China is able to build nuclear
power plants at significantly lower cost and with minimal delays compared to the
United States and the European Union.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 49
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Average planned vs. realized construction time of nuclear power projects with
construction starts after 2007 in selected regions
15
Years
10
0
China India Europe North America Other Asia Rest of world
The financing of nuclear projects involves high upfront capital costs, which
amortise over long-time periods. This means that the profitability of a project is
highly sensitive to construction risks and the cost of capital. With higher interest
rates, construction delays can become even more costly through the increased
value of time. The bulk of the risk is associated with the construction phase. Once
a nuclear power plant is commissioned, the steady sale of electricity and the low
share of fuel cost in total costs make it a low-risk asset, although some risks in
relation to technical issues and maintenance, and a stable fuel supply remain.
However, during the construction phase, technical issues, shortages of qualified
staff, supply-chain disruptions or complex interactions with regulators can
significantly lengthen construction times and escalate cost. Those instances could
particularly raise the risk of interim interest payments due during the construction
phase, which can jeopardize the financial viability of an ongoing project.
Reducing construction risk can significantly bring down the cost of capital, which
are a major cost factor for nuclear projects. While construction risk is inherent in
all capital-intensive projects, there are best practices for project owners to
minimise their exposure. Most importantly, complete and comprehensive design
and planning should be completed before any construction begins. Further, high
standards for documentation as well as integrated planning of interconnected
dependencies are essential. Structural factors, such as supply-chain disruptions
and skilled labour shortages need to be considered, and their potential impacts
planned for. Pooling demand in a consortium to ensure future revenue streams
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 50
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
In practice, financing issues have been addressed in various ways. One major
approach is through the involvement of state actors. Projects can be directly
funded through state financing, which is how a majority of nuclear projects are
financed, for instance, in China. India only recently considered allowing private
minority stakes in nuclear operations, with all operating plants financed through
government funds. Governments can also step in as guarantors to bring down
capital cost, which was the stated objective of the US government when providing
guarantees for the financing of Vogtle 3 and 4. Similarly, Sweden, in light of its
announcements to expand its nuclear capacity, has already offered loan
guarantees for the construction of the newly planned nuclear sites.
State actors interested in selling technology can also provide vendor financing, as
done by Russia for the construction of Rooppur nuclear reactor in Bangladesh or
the El-Dabaa plant in Egypt, where the country both sold its technology and
provided financing instruments. Public support by ratepayers and the British
government has recently been introduced in the United Kingdom, where the
Regulated Asset Base model, originally intended for other parts of infrastructure,
allows nuclear operators to reduce upfront capital requirements, which are divided
among the different steps and revenue is already generated during the
construction phase. This helps to cover parts of the capital requirement through
applying surcharges to electricity consumers upfront to fund planning and
construction phases in real time. An additional UK government support package
(GSP) would be triggered if construction cost overruns exceed a certain level.
By providing stable frameworks for the energy sector in general and electricity
market design in particular, governments can remove parts of the operating risk
exposure of nuclear power plants. While not removing the construction risk as the
largest source of uncertainty, instruments stabilising revenue expectations,
backed by state actors, can further help reduce cost of capital. Typical measures
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 51
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
include PPA, as implemented for the Akkuyu nuclear plant in Türkiye or CFDs
agreements with a set strike price for sold electricity, as agreed on for the new
Hinkley Point C reactor in the United Kingdom. Geopolitical energy strategies and
limited options to diversify risks on financial markets can justify government
interventions.
Dedicated institutions with focused expertise and pooled capital can also be
beneficial. Within this context, the International Bank for Nuclear Infrastructure
(IBNI) intends to provide a wide range of financial and advisory services for the
development of nuclear projects in its member states. According to its
representatives, they expect 20-30 countries to sign the joint declaration for the
establishment of the institution between December 2023 and the Nuclear Energy
Summit in Brussels in March 2024.
Green taxonomies can play a role in financing of nuclear energy but remain a
political discussion. In July 2023, following the United Kingdom, China and Korea,
the European parliament voted to include nuclear energy transitionally as a green
power source into its new sustainability taxonomy. However, more than half of the
world’s major private banks have excluded nuclear energy from their green
financing frameworks. In response, the declaration to triple nuclear energy by
2050, launched at the COP28, includes a statement urging financial institutions to
include nuclear energy into their energy lending policies.
There are a range of technologies with different use-cases being developed and
operated, ranging from microreactors with capacities below 10 MW and large
reactors of up to 400 MW. Currently, according to the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA), there are only two countries operating SMRs, China and Russia.
Whilst Russia is running an installation with 70 MW capacity, China recently
started commercial operations of the first unit at the Shidaowan site with a capacity
of 200 MW. The two countries combined currently have an additional 425 MW
under construction. In addition, Argentina is planning to connect its test reactor
Carem25 in 2027. The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) estimates global
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 52
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
The discontinuation of the NuScale SMR project set to deploy the first VOYGR
SMR in Idaho (US) was notable in 2023. After failing to meet target subscription
levels for future power output, and citing escalating cost, operator Utah Associated
Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS) and NuScale agreed to terminate the project,
scheduled to start operations in 2029. The project plan included six 77 MW
modules. Initially, the costs were estimated at USD 58/MWh in 2020, however by
2023 these projections had ballooned to USD 119/MWh due to increased material
and equipment cost. In December 2023, a lawsuit was filed against NuScale by
investors, accusing the company of actively withholding information about the
financial issues of the now cancelled project from its investors. The outcome and
influence on the financial viability of NuScale remains unclear at the time of writing
this report. This event underlined the difficulties and vulnerabilities of pilot SMR
projects, raising concerns about the future of them. However, NuScale has
affirmed its continual commitment to its design and stated that other projects in
the United States, as well as in Romania and Korea, are still being developed. As
of November 2023, NuScale holds the US-model SMR design approved by the
NRC.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding the pace of mass deployment, there is a wide
interest amongst numerous countries for the development of SMR as a
technology. In December 2023, Holtec International announced plans to add two
of its SMR-300 units to the existing Palisades site in Michigan, with commissioning
expected in the mid-2030s. Canada has also affirmed its plans to rely on SMR
technology as a central part of its energy strategy. Specifically, the province of
Ontario plans to deploy four units of the 300 MW Hitachi BWRX from GE Hitachi
Nuclear Energy at its Darlington site. Further, additional units have been proposed
by New Brunswick Power at Point Lepreau and public funding is provided to
prepare the deployment of Hitachi BWRX units in Saskatchewan. In addition, in
December 2023, Poland announced its intent to deploy 24 300 MW Hitachi BWRX
units at six locations.
In addition, there are currently over 85 designs and concepts being developed by
firms and operators in over 20 countries, including all major nuclear powers, such
as China, the United States and Russia. In addition, France has recently
announced the investment of USD 1 billion for the development of commercially
viable SMRs until 2030 as a central part of its re-enhanced nuclear strategy, and
in July 2023 confirmed co-operation with India to advance SMR technology. At the
summit of G7 leaders in May 2023, a consortium from Japan, Korea and the
United States announced the funding of an SMR for deployment in Romania.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 53
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
50 United
Kingdom
40 Canada
30 Japan
20 China
Russia
10
United States
0
In operation* Under construction Design ready Design phase
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: The IAEA counts Japan’s HTTR test-reactor in Ōarai as an additional SMR in operation. Based on newer definitions
on modularity, we exclude it from the statistic.
Source: IEA analysis based on own research and data from IAEA.
The largest players in developing new technologies are the United States, China
and Russia, accounting for more than half of projects in the design phase. In
Europe, there are currently 13 ongoing projects at varying stages of the design
process, including in the United Kingdom, France, Denmark, the Czech Republic,
Netherlands, Sweden and Italy.
For SMRs, cogeneration or high temperature steam for industrial use are also
being explored. All units currently operating or under construction have a capacity
between 30-300 MW. China is operating a gas-cooled SMR, and also has
water-cooled models under construction. Russia already runs a water-cooled unit
and in addition is currently building a Fast-Neutron Spectrum reactor of the type
Brest-OD-300 at the Seversk site. A considerable number of projects being
developed are micro-reactors. Those are easily transportable and flexible units,
and thus suited for use in remote areas, for the electrification of industrial
complexes, research stations or military sites. The United States and Russia run
more than half of the ongoing research projects for micro-reactors, with Japan’s
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries also announcing plans to have a micro-reactor with a
capacity of 0.5 MW commercialised by 2030.
Accommodating the need for flexibility in energy systems, new SMR models are
designed to provide more flexibility than current Generation III+ reactors. This
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 54
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Canada, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, India, Mexico, Türkiye, the United States,
and Viet Nam, among other countries, all experienced varying degrees of
reduction in hydropower generation. In some countries the reduced hydropower
output resulted in energy shortages, increased reliance on alternative sources
such as coal and thermal power, and concerns about electricity supply stability.
The consequences varied, including power shortages, the need for additional
thermal power procurement and higher CO2 emissions.
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
2023
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
2023
Notes: The analysis includes reservoir and run-of-river type hydropower plants; excludes pumped hydro storage plants.
PAGE | 55
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Hydropower output in the United States declined by 4.4% due to rapid spring
snowmelt, impacting around 50% of the country’s hydropower capacity. Canada,
where hydro accounts for over half of its electricity supply, similarly saw a 7%
reduction in hydropower due to a mild winter affecting snowmelt. Multi-year
droughts in Mexico led to a 40% decrease in hydropower generation in 2023,
prompting operational alerts. El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts threatened
Colombia's hydropower generation, which constitutes about 70% of the country’s
annual electricity production. The El Niño phenomenon led to similarly lower
hydropower output in Costa Rica in 2023, resulting in thermal generation
contributing more than 5% to the electricity mix.
The European Union recovered from the 20% drop in hydropower generation in
2022, as output increased by 16%. However, Türkiye experienced a 4.5% decline
in 2023 due to an extended drought, following a recovery in hydropower in 2022.
In the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2023, the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)
sees global installed capacity of gas-fired power plants in 2030 10% higher than
in 2022, equivalent to about 200 GW of capacity additions. This compares to
capacity additions of approximately 240 GW between 2015 and 2022 and shows
there will be continued demand for gas turbines worldwide, eventually expected
to be hydrogen-powered in the IEA’s NZE Scenario. For example, Germany,
aiming to largely rely on renewable generation for its energy transition, is planning
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 56
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
These companies also have production facilities outside their home base. For
example, in addition to its main US production facility in Greenville, North Carolina,
GE operates a manufacturing centre in Birr, Switzerland. Siemens, whilst
maintaining large manufacturing capabilities at its historic plant in Berlin, also
operates facilities in Finspång, Sweden, as well as North Carolina in the United
States. Notably, the company operates the largest manufacturing facility for gas
turbines in the Middle East at its Siemens Dammam Energy Hub in Saudi Arabia,
where the first “Made in KSA” gas turbine was assembled in 2016.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 57
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Rest of world
18
Canada
16
14 Singapore
12 China
10 France
8 Germany
6 Italy
4
United Kingdom
2
United States
0
Export Import
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: The analysis is based on export and import data from the Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations
internationales (CEPII), and considers the trade of gas turbines exceeding 5 MW, and aggregate by country.
Source: CEPII, BACI bilateral trade flow dataset.
The top six countries exporting gas turbines accounted for 70% of global exports
between 2019-2021 in terms of trade volume (USD billion), with the United States
the leader with a 30% share. The largest importer in terms of trade volume was
also the United States, with a share of 10%, followed by China with 6%. The
market concentration in importers is much lower, with the top six countries
accounting for 30% of global imports.
PAGE | 58
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
and cobalt were mined in the magnitude of 255 kt and 200 kt, respectively, and
rhenium mining amounted to only 58 t globally.
A study from the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE), estimates
the material requirements by 2050 for a 385 MW Siemens Gas Turbine include
precious metals of 247 kg/MW of high-alloy steel and 137 kg/MW of low-alloy
steel. Further, the turbine requires almost 900 g/MW of copper. This translates,
among others, into just under 45 kg/MW of chromite, 25 kg/MW of cobalt, around
2.5 kg/MW of nickel, 2.8 kg/MW of manganese, and about 1.7 kg/MW of
molybdenum.
Share of global mining by region for selected critical minerals essential to gas turbine
production, 2022
100%
Russia
Indonesia
75% Russia United
Kazakhstan United States
Australia Philippines
States
Poland
50% Türkiye
Gabon Chile
25%
South South
Congo China Indonesia Chile
Africa Africa
0%
Chromite Cobalt Manganese Molybdenum Nickel Rhenium
Largest producer Second-largest producer Third-largest producer Rest of world
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from United States Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center
PAGE | 59
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
“Congo”) produces 70% of the global cobalt supplies. The vast majority of
Congolese cobalt mines are owned and operated by Chinese firms. Chile alone
mines half of global rhenium. Two other major miners of rhenium are Poland and
the United States, each having a share of about 16% of total production.
Share of global processing by region for selected critical minerals essential to gas
turbine production, 2022
100%
Armenia
Canada
Chile
Finland Ukraine
75% Kazakhstan
India
Poland
Russia
South United
50% Africa China
States
25%
China China China China Indonesia Chile
0%
Chromite Cobalt Manganese Molybdenum Nickel Rhenium
Largest Processor Second-largest Processor Third-largest Processor Rest of world
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Sources: IEA analysis based on data from European Commission, Raw Materials Information System (RMIS), IEA Critical
Minerals Review 2023.
PAGE | 60
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
World China
14 000 5 600 1 400 2 100
India
12 000 4 800 1 200 1 800
10 000 4 000 1 000 1 500 US
8 000 3 200 800 1 200
Japan & Korea
6 000 2 400 600 900
Southeast Asia
4 000 1 600 400 600
2 000 800 200 300 EU
0 0 0 0
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 61
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Over the outlook period, growth in electricity sector emissions is expected to come
primarily from India, Southeast Asia, and other emerging economies. The
continued growth in coal-fired generation in India and Southeast Asia, combined
with rising gas-fired output in the Middle East, will put upward pressure on global
emissions. Nevertheless, these increases in emissions are not enough to offset
large decreases expected in China, the United States and the European Union.
Forecasted changes in global CO2 emissions from electricity generation, 2026 vs. 2023
13 750
Mt CO2
13 575
13 500 -162 -45
13 250 -167
13 111
+41
-237
13 000 -8 +114
12 750
12 500
12 250
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
The European Union is set to have the highest rate of relative decline out to 2026,
at an average 13% per year, in emission intensity among the major energy
consuming regions, followed by China (6%) and the United States (5%). By 2026,
CO2 intensity of power generation in China is expected to fall to US levels from
2014. Over the outlook period, India is also forecast to record a decline of 3% on
average annually as the share of low-carbon sources increases. By contrast,
emission intensity in Southeast Asia is expected to remain stable.
900
g CO2/kWh
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: The CO2 intensity is calculated as total CO2 emissions divided by total generation.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
CO2 intensity of electricity generation in the world, by selected countries and regions
(g CO2/kWh), 2014-2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
1 200
1 200 1 200 1 200 1 200 1 200 1 200
1 000
1 000 1 000 India 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 000
Australia Indonesia
800
800 China 800 800 800 800 800
Japan Korea
600 600 600 600 600 600
600
400 400 400 400 400 400
400
200 200 200 200 200 200
0
200 0 0 0 0 0
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
20142014
20162017
20182020
20202023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
0
2022
2024
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: The CO2 intensity is calculated as total CO2 emissions divided by total generation. The figures for 2024-2026 are
forecast values.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 64
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
375
300
225
150
75
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Continuous lines show historical data and dashed lines refer to forward prices. Prices for Australia and the United
States are calculated as the demand-weighted average of available prices in their regional markets. For the Nordics region,
the Nord Pool system price is used for historical prices and EEX Nordics futures are used for forward prices.
Sources: IEA analysis based on data from French transmission system operator RTE (France) accessed via the ENTSO-E
Transparency Platform; German regulator Bundesnetzagentur, SMARD.de; AEMO, Aggregated price and demand data;
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook January 2024; IEX, Area Prices; EEX, Power Futures; ASX, Electricity Futures © ASX
Limited ABN 98 008 624 691 (ASX) 2020. All rights reserved. This material is reproduced with the permission of ASX. This
material should not be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form whether in whole or in part
without the prior written permission of ASX. Latest update: 19 January 2024.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 66
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Number of hours with negative wholesale electricity prices and share of variable
renewable energy in total electricity generation in selected regions, 2019-2023
2 500 100%
Number of hours with negative prices
90%
2 000 80%
70%
1 500 60%
50%
1 000 40%
30%
500 20%
10%
0 0%
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Netherlands Germany California Japan South Australia
Number of hours with negative prices (left axis) Share of VRE in total generation (right axis)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Japan does not allow negative prices in the wholesale electricity market, the lowest possible price is limited to zero.
The number of hours shown here for Japan therefore represents the hours when prices were zero. The California prices
refer to wholesale prices from the electricity hub SP-15.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from ERCOT, CAISO, AEMO NEM, and ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.
In contrast to the United States and Australia, the 2023 average European price
at around EUR 105/MWh (USD115/MWh) was still about double the 2019 level of
EUR 54/MWh (USD 50/MWh). This was despite wholesale electricity prices in
Europe falling on average by more than 50% in 2023 from the record 2022 highs.
In the summer of 2023, the European electricity markets were characterised by
negative wholesale prices amid strong solar output against low electricity demand.
A similar episode of negative prices also occurred in late December when strong
wind generation accompanied low electricity demand during the holiday season.
In 2023, the number of hours with negative wholesale electricity prices more than
quadrupled in countries such as Germany and the Netherlands compared to the
previous year. In 2023, prices were below zero in Germany almost 3% of the time,
and in the Netherlands almost 4%.
Like many other European markets, the Nordics also saw record wholesale price
levels in 2022, as the cheaper hydropower-driven power exports to neighbouring
European markets added upward pressure on domestic wholesale prices. In line
with the moderation of European wholesale markets, prices in the Nordics fell by
60% in 2023, with the Nord Pool spot price averaging EUR 57/MWh
(USD 61/MWh). Futures for the Nordics market indicate similar price levels, which
makes it the only wholesale market in Europe to have comparable prices levels to
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
those in the United States and Australia. Nevertheless, regional differences within
the Nordics market exist, with southern Scandinavia generally facing higher prices
than the northern parts.
Prices for natural gas (left) and coal (right) in selected markets, 2019-2026
250 60
USD/MWh
USD/MWh
200 48
150 36
100 24
50 12
0 0
Sep-19
May-20
Sep-21
May-22
Sep-23
May-24
Sep-25
May-26
Jan-19
Jan-21
Jan-23
Jan-25
Sep-19
May-20
Sep-21
May-22
Sep-23
May-24
Sep-25
May-26
Jan-19
Jan-21
Jan-23
Jan-25
PAGE | 68
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
India remains the only market that did not post a substantial drop in wholesale
electricity prices in 2023. Prices fell 4% in 2023 to INR 5 540/MWh
(USD 68/MWh), but were still almost double those in 2019. The tight supply
situation due to strong demand growth kept prices elevated. The price cap of INR
10 000/MWh continued to be implemented to protect the interests of buyers.
Further, a high price segment was introduced to cover costly power generation
technologies (gas and imported coal), but has seen low and intermittent buyer
presence.
PAGE | 69
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
300
USD/MWh
250
200
150
100
50
0
Italy Germany France EU Norway United States China
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: The analysis considers electricity costs of industries with greater than 150 GWh of annual electricity consumption for
the European countries, based on Eurostat data. Electricity price compensation included for countries that participate in
EU-ETS. For the calculation of the maximum possible state aid for electricity price compensation in European countries,
the analysis assumes that the specific product has an electricity consumption benchmark of 0.8 and that the company in
question receives the maximum possible state aid once this benchmark is incorporated into the maximum aid calculation.
The prices for the US and China are indicative of the average reported prices; individual industries depending on their
energy consumption levels and where they are located can face different prices.
Sources: IEA analysis based on IEA end-use prices database; data from Eurostat (2023); Official Journal of the European
Union (2021), Southeastern U.S. Industrial Rate Survey; Brubaker & Associates (2023); Shanghai Metals Market (2023);
Intercontinental Exchange (2023), EUA Futures (Accessed November 2023).
In France, the amount of nuclear power sold by French state-owned utility EDF to
alternative suppliers at the regulated price of EUR 42/MWh under the ARENH law
decreased from 120 TWh in 2022 to 100 TWh in 2023, which added upward
pressure on prices. Expiring at the end of 2025, the ARENH scheme will be
succeeded by a new agreement between EDF and the French government. It
stipulates that all of EDF’s nuclear generation is targeted towards an intended
average price of EUR 70/MWh. The agreement aims to achieve this with a
mechanism to redistribute excess profits of EDF back to consumers, where 50%
of any additional revenue generated above EUR 78-80/MWh (with the exact price
still to be determined at the time of writing of this report) would be redistributed,
and 90% of all revenues exceeding a price of EUR 110/MWh. These thresholds
are regularly renegotiated. The agreement remains subject to approval by the
European Commission.
In China, prices were relatively stable in 2023 compared to 2022, although some
provinces within China rolled back or cancelled discounted electricity prices for
the industry. A reform of the electricity pricing systems further end the preferential
treatment of heavy industries, setting equal rates based on voltage levels for all
commercial and industry users. However, price increases can be expected in
2024, as the Chinese government announced steps to liberalise industry power
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
There are several factors that go into calculating the maximum state aid that a
plant may apply for each year, relating to the carbon price burden in electricity
consumption. The European Commission specifies the calculation of the implicit
carbon price burden through electricity use on a product-region level by multiplying
defined product-specific electricity consumption efficiency benchmarks, regional
carbon intensities of power production and the European Union Allowance (EUA)
forward price from the previous year. The efficiency benchmark per product is the
electricity consumption per tonne of output for a given product when using the
most electricity-efficient method of production. Every plant can apply for payable
aid based on its calculated implicit carbon price burden and realised production
volume. Since 2019, an aid intensity of 0.75 is specified, meaning the payable
support amounts to a maximum of 75% of the calculated price burden. All aid
schemes related to the mitigation of the carbon price burden on electricity must be
phased out by 2030, as specified on the most recent guidelines of the European
Commission on State aid measures in the context of the EU-ETS.
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
300 300
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
Final electricity price Compensation for indirect costs of EU ETS Recoverable taxes
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: The analysis considers electricity costs of industries with greater than 150 GWh of annual electricity consumption for
the considered European countries, based on Eurostat data. Electricity price compensation included for countries that
participate in EU ETS. For the calculation of the maximum possible state aid for electricity price compensation in European
countries, the analysis assumes that the specific product has an electricity consumption benchmark of 0.8 and that the
company in question receives the maximum possible state aid once this benchmark is incorporated into the maximum aid
calculation. The final US electricity price is based off the final electricity for industry in Texas. The final electricity price for
China is based off the final electricity for industry in Inner Mongolia.
Sources: IEA analysis based on data from Electricity prices components for non-household consumers; Eurostat (2023),
Communication from the Commission supplementing the Guidelines on certain State aid measures in the context of the
system for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading post-2021; Official Journal of the European Union (2021),
Southeastern U.S. Industrial Rate Survey; Brubaker & Associates (2023), Will the Cancellation of Preferential Power Tariff
in Inner Mongolia Impact New Energy Market?; Shanghai Metals Market.(2023). EUA Futures; Intercontinental Exchange
(2023).
However, later in November 2023, the German Supreme Court ruled that the extra
spending of the government in the energy crisis was inconsistent with the
constitutional cap on public debt, forcing the government to renegotiate its budget
for 2024, which includes the spending for the long-term support measures that
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
were agreed earlier in 2023. In response, the finance ministry has temporarily
halted the approval of any new commitments for the use of the funds dedicated in
part to the electricity price relief measures. As the payments for the price
guarantees for parts of the power and gas consumption of the energy-intensive
industry have been approved prior, they will continue to flow. However, they will
be phased out four months earlier than initially planned, at the beginning of 2024.
A reform of the electricity market with the goal to protect both businesses and
consumers against soaring prices within the European Union has been agreed
upon between the Council and the Parliament in December 2023. The proposal
now needs to be formally adopted by both parties to enter into force. One central
measure discussed is defining two-way contracts for difference as the central
allowed support measure for new installations using technologies included in the
green taxonomy. If the market price is above a pre-agreed strike price, the excess
revenues are distributed to consumers, while if the market prices are below a pre-
agreed strike price, then the difference is reimbursed to the generator. The aim is
to help increase the deployment of renewables by providing a guaranteed return
on investment as well as more predictable pricing. The underlying spot market
model is largely preserved, however capacity remuneration schemes are explicitly
mentioned as playing an integral role in the future electricity market. More detailed
information on additional content and negotiations process of the reform is
provided in the Europe Section of the Regional Focus part of this report.
PAGE | 73
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
ongoing European energy crisis, created the surge. By 2023, prices were reduced
by around NOK 1 000 compared to the previous year, nevertheless remaining
70% higher compared to 2019 levels.
500
400
300
200
100
0
Chile Korea Norway Türkiye United Kingdom United States
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Residential electricity prices include taxes and have been converted from local currencies to USD/MWh (PPP) using
PPP conversion rates provided by the IMF PPP database. 2023 value is the average of Q1-Q3 2023 for all the countries
except Chile, which is based on Q1-Q2 2023 average. The countries shown here are chosen due to data availability for
2023 as the time of publication of this report.
Sources: IEA electricity prices database, IMF, PPP database.
PAGE | 74
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
The recent EU market design reform aims to include multiple measures to tackle
soaring consumer prices in the longer term, without relying on strong market
interventions by governments except in exceptional circumstances.
Country level measures played a large role in shaping the final consumer price.
Measures throughout included exemptions from taxes and levies, direct support
payments and subsidies, price brakes and reductions in VAT. The magnitude of
support measures across EU countries in 2023 varied. In Poland, the government
introduced a Solidarity Shield that fixed electricity prices. As a consequence,
consumer costs were cut by about 60% in 2023. This was one of the most
substantial relief measures observed in the European Union, along with
Romania’s price caps by almost 50% in the same year. On the other hand, in
Finland, Belgium and Germany, the relief in power prices in 2023 through public
support measures only amounted to 4-5%.
500
400
300
200
100
0
Nov-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
May-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
May-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-23
Apr-22
Apr-23
Jun-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
Jun-23
Household price (excluding support schemes) Household price (including support schemes)
Average EU wholesale electricity price
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: The household price analysis focuses on general measures affecting typical consumers and selected capital cities
which have applied such measures during the period analysed. Household prices consider new tariff offers, which are
weighted by electricity demand. Average wholesale price is also demand-weighted for the same countries.
Source: Based on data and analysis provided by VaasaETT (2023), © 2023 VaasaETT Ltd.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
As electrification gathers pace and both the demand and supply of electricity
become increasingly weather-dependent, electricity security and reliability are
becoming more important than ever. Many power systems around the world
continue to face adequacy issues during heightened electricity demand in periods
of extreme cold or heat, alongside increasing weather-induced outages and
disruptions in power supply availabilities. Every year, extreme weather events
cause largescale power outages in many regions. Insufficient power capacity as
well as fuel supply issues due to elevated energy costs continue to plague a
significant number of emerging economies. In such a world, it is of paramount
importance to monitor the secure operation of electricity systems and keep track
of the measures implemented in this context. Against this backdrop, commencing
with this year’s Electricity 2024 report, we have included our monitoring and
tracking of the global developments in electricity security and reliability as a
dedicated chapter.
In this respect, some regions have started setting minimum requirements for
system inertia, typically provided by conventional generators with spinning rotors
that help the power system ride through disturbances such as faults. A number of
countries are also introducing markets for services like fast frequency response
(FFR) that help stabilise the power system rapidly after disturbances and may help
reduce inertia requirements. Such services like the FFR typically function within a
time frame of few seconds or less, making batteries an ideal technology choice
due to their fast response times.
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Continental Nordic Grid United Kingdom Ireland Australia NEM
Europe (excl. Tasmania)
In the Nordics, a fast frequency reserve was implemented in May 2020 to address
low-inertia scenarios. The required volume of fast frequency reserves is
contingent on the prevailing inertia within the power system and the scale of the
reference incident. Procurement of this fast frequency reserve by the TSOs occurs
in national markets, with market parameters varying among Nordic countries.
The United Kingdom mandates that the power system must maintain a minimum
inertia level, which has been reevaluated annually since 2021, and currently
stands at 120 GVAs. Dynamic Frequency Containment (DC) gained increasing
significance due to the imperative of counter rapid frequency fluctuations from low
inertia. This fast-acting post-fault service is designed to maintain the frequency
within the statutory range of +/-0.5 Hz in the event of sudden demand or loss of
generation.
PAGE | 77
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
substitute for inertia, Ireland has a dedicated service aimed at providing inertia
response. Its SIR (Synchronous Inertia Response) service is defined as the kinetic
energy of a centrally dispatched generating unit multiplied by the SIR factor. This
service has varying requirements depending on whether it is a synchronous
generator or a hybrid synchronous compensator-flywheel. The service provider
receives payment for each MW of SIR available volume for the providing unit in
each trading period when synchronised.
In the United States, since 2016 ERCOT’s control room has been monitoring
inertia levels, and operators have been taking actions to increase critical inertia
above 100 GWs when needed. In 2020, the North American Electric Reliability
Corporation (NERC) underscored the critical importance of faster frequency
response to address the decline in inertia, especially in smaller interconnections
within North America, such as Texas and Quebec interconnections. In October
2022, the ERCOT system underwent updates to implement changes associated
with the Fast Frequency Response Advancement Project.
In the United States an ice storm resulted in a major power outage for 400 000
consumers in late January. The Texan power public company, Austin Energy,
replaced the exposed 101 distribution poles and 52 transformers which were
under trees and ice. The gradual power restoration was delayed for ten days due
to the challenging weather conditions. One month later, Michigan saw one of its
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
worst ice storms, leaving 800 000 customers without power after electricity lines
were destroyed by fallen trees. More than half of the customers had their electricity
restored after one day but others had to wait a week. During April, an ice storm
left 1.3 million households without power in Quebec, Canada. Fallen trees took
down many power lines while gradual recovery of power required the replacement
of 50 km of power lines and 440 transformers over six days.
To prepare for future events, utilities identified the damaged infrastructure due to
fallen trees and heavy snow as the root cause of their recent outages and
developed action plans to address them. Shielding the assets against harsh ice
storms includes mainly burying power lines and tree trimming programmes.
Detroit-based utility DTE Energy reportedly spent USD 200 million replacing
electric equipment and line posts to recover from the ice storm and will invest
USD 9 billion on its 5-year weather-resilience plan. The investment cost is to be
reflected in consumers’ electricity bills linked to a rise of up to 3% of their current
expenses.
Western France and the UK’s southern region were hit by windstorm “Ciarán” in
November, leaving more than 1.2 million consumers without power for one day,
while approximately 36 000 households had their electricity reestablished after
one week. In France, distribution company Enedis is currently working on a
modernisation plan to improve their network’s climate resilience and adaptation to
low-carbon sources of electricity. The plan targets new underground networks,
replacement of exposed lines with tougher or underground cables, and new
substations by 2050.
The state of Gujarat in India was hit by Cyclone Biparjoy in June. The tropical
cyclone caused power outages and severe damages to the electricity network
valued at INR 10 billion in power lines, transformers and other equipment along
the transmission and distribution infrastructure. Power was gradually restored
after a week. A second cyclone, Michaung, hit India in December in the southeast
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
state of Andhra Pradesh. Several districts were flooded and power supply was
interrupted for a week in another case of damaged infrastructure. India’s
distribution system operator (DSO) BESCOM in the state of Karnataka scheduled
daily outages for maintenance work during December. Power cuts at an average
duration of six hours to carry out maintenance in an alternating routine affected
eight districts with a total of population of 20 million people.
PAGE | 80
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Power cuts occurred in Egypt during the summer and late 2023 due to a
combination of gas shortages and increased energy consumption amid high
temperature overloading the grid. A national daily load shedding strategy was in
place since July 2023, with scheduled power outages lasting up to two hours.
From November on, power outages have been reduced to one-hour duration.
A major blackout struck Brazil on 15 August 2023, lasting six hours and affecting
over 29 million people due to a voltage drop from a transmission line failure. The
blackout's primary cause was equipment malfunction in the state of Ceara, which
underperformed compared to predictions in mathematical models and simulations.
Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico (ONS) pointed out that the issue was not
related to the type of power source.
In Quebec, Canada 490 000 buildings lost electricity service for several hours in
April due to a maintenance incident deriving from a loss of production from a
turbine at a 5 GW hydropower plant. In southern France, a two-hour power outage
affected 260 000 households due to a system overload in October. RTE, the grid
operator, reported this overload as an exceptional technical failure without major
consequences.
Outages and routine power cut offs since 2022 have been occurring in major cities
and surrounding provinces of the interconnected countries of Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan due to grid imbalances, e.g. system overloads.
During 2023, controlled frequent black outs with a duration of up to five hours have
been in place in western Kazakhstan while regional authorities prepared a priority
power supply strategy. The oil and gas exporting Kazakhstan has been recently
seeking to modernise its ageing power grid infrastructure after gas exports have
been interrupted by domestic energy crises.
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Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Total number of days with load shedding and maximum evening peak demand per
month in Bangladesh between January 2020 and November 2023
35 21
Number of days
GW
30 18
25 15
20 12
15 9
10 6
5 3
0 0
Total number of days with load shedding Maximum evening peak demand (right axis)
IEA. CC BY 4.0
Source: Monthly Management Report, Power Grid Company of Bangladesh.
Sri Lanka had a national blackout in December 2023. Power disruptions persisted
for six hours on account of a systemic failure due to a lightning strike on a critical
transmission line in the country.
Several other countries have struggled with power supply challenges in 2023
without experiencing full-scale blackouts. Bangladesh faced increased power
cuts due to rising demand exacerbated by unpredictable weather patterns and fuel
shortages. India encountered power shortages driven by higher temperatures and
decreased hydroelectric output. Peak power demand reached 223 GW in June
amid soaring temperatures, with power outages observed in the northern states.
In Madagascar, rolling power cuts were implemented due to low water reservoirs,
reduced solar energy and fuel shortages during the winter months. Yemen had to
shut down power stations due to fuel shortages in August. South Africa continued
to have load shedding in 2023 due to supply challenges, with the total volume of
load shedding up to the end of September already being higher than the total
volume of load shedding in the previous eight years together.
PAGE | 82
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
the unique conditions and structure of their power grid. Power outages can be due
to a generation and demand imbalance (e.g. fuel shortages, power plant outages
or insufficient adequacy) or grid-related issues. Grid-related causes for power
outages can be categorised into three main groups: natural causes, human error
and technical/equipment-related issues. Human-related factors such as car
crashes involving poles and transformers, poor workmanship, errors during new
connections, vandalism and cyberattacks can lead to disruptions in the power
supply. In many regions, these factors are significant causes of power outages
and deserve more attention.
On the technical side, outages can stem from a diverse set of component and
equipment failures. In the example of Chile, our analysis of transmission-level
outages shows that the main causes of incidents are related to power lines, which
made up about half of the almost 400 reported outages in 2021. Outages arising
from power lines are often due to short-circuits stemming from weather, animal
and tree-related events. Short-circuits can arise due to branches touching power
lines or storms taking down trees. Consequently, electrical current surges trigger
the activation of protection mechanisms to de-energize the system. Other
equipment causing outages are the protection systems, bus bars, substations,
transformers, circuit breakers and point of connections.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 83
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Power outages at the transmission level in Chile in 2021 by cause (left) and associated
electrical equipment (right)
Nature
Line
Tree
160 Animal Protection system
Number of recorded incidents
IEA. CC BY 4.0
Note: The data is clustered by the IEA according to the reasons provided in the original source.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from Unavailability indices, Coordinador Electrico Nacional.
Other options to mitigate power outage incidences are increased staff training and
standardisation. Staff certification is a method to ensure a standardised and safe
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 84
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Our clustering and analysis of power outage data in Türkiye shows that of the
unplanned outages reported for 2021 at the distribution level, about 80% were
reported as technical/equipment-related, followed by natural causes and human
factors. Among human-caused incidents, issues during new connections were the
main cause in most of the reported outages. This is followed by third-person
involvement, where accidental damaging of equipment during construction works
but also vandalism are common. Mentioned at a smaller scale, poor workmanship
was also cited as a cause. According to the Turkish statistics, equipment
commonly associated with distribution-level outages includes power transformers,
instrument transformers and cables.
Human
120 000 600 000 Connection
Crash
80 000 400 000 Person
Poor workmanship
40 000 200 000 Construction
Theft
0 0
Nature Human Technical Technical
Fault
Fire
Unknown
IEA. CC BY 4.0
Note: The data is clustered by the IEA according to the reasons provided in the original source.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from Epiaş Seffaflık Platformu (2021), Outage Information.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 85
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
While physical attacks have captured headlines, the cyber threat is also a growing
concern. Between 2020 and 2022, the average number of cyberattacks against
utilities worldwide more than doubled. As power systems evolve in line with
digitalisation, protection against cyber threats will become increasingly more
important. Governments are developing regulations to safeguard the integrity of
information and communications technology (ICT) against any action that
compromise them.
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Vandalism Cyberattack
IEA. CC BY 4.0
Notes: Vandalism includes outages reported with the causes listed as physical attack, sabotage, and suspicious activity.
Cyberattack includes outages reported with the causes listed as cyberattack and cyber event.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from Electric Disturbance Events Annual Summaries, U.S. Department of Energy.
Between the period of July 2022 to June 2023, ICT in the European Union
underwent approximately 2 580 cyberattacks, mainly to ransomware (34%),
Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS), known for blocking a system to access
relevant data by overloading components of the network (28%), and data
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 86
Electricity 2024 Global trends
Analysis and forecast to 2026
The EU’s Network and Information Directive (NIS), adopted in 2016, identifies
critical entities – generators, retailers, TSOs and DSOs – and sets a series of
measures to maintain the reliability and security of the involved ICT as well as
setting co-operation platforms to further improve cybersecurity. In October 2023,
the NIS was modernised. The directive, NIS2, extends its predecessor’s scope
and is to be fully implemented by late 2024. In this update new entities are listed
as critical, such as recharging point operators and various electricity market
participants, as well as reinforcing cybersecurity requirements along their supply
chain. Additionally, in September 2023, the European Commission unveiled new
plans urging EU countries to enhance collaboration on cross-border threats and
strengthen co-operation with NATO.
PAGE | 87
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Regional focus
Asia Pacific
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
PAGE | 88
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
China
100 80
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Non-ferrous metals include copper, aluminium, lead, zinc, nickel, tin, antimony, mercury, magnesium, and titanium.
Sour ce: IEA an alysis based on dat a fro m N ation al Bur eau of Statistics of Chin a.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 89
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
1 000
TWh
800
600
400
200
- 200
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources. The figures for 2024-2026 are
forecast values.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 90
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Energy security remains a significant issue. Following power outages in 2021 and
2022, concerns emerged at the beginning of the summer of 2023 that the country
would struggle to keep the lights on amid record heat waves. Summer peak load
reached historic highs of 1 340 GW, up 50 GW compared to the previous year.
Droughts and higher than normal temperatures from winter 2022 to spring 2023
resulted in exceptionally low water reservoir levels. The government implemented
policies to boost domestic coal production and imports.
While the central government pledged to stop permitting coal plants solely for bulk
generation, provinces continue to approve new projects for economic stimulus
and, amid energy security concerns, to meet peak load and address a lack of
flexible generation and demand. Building coal power facilities near large wind and
solar bases in western China is also a strategy to ensure higher utilisation rates
on ultra-high-voltage (UHV) lines exporting power to eastern regions. More than
40 GW of thermal plants were commissioned during the first ten months of 2023,
surpassing installation rates observed over the past 13 years.
PAGE | 91
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
projects. The new capacity is equivalent to twice the combined solar additions of
the European Union and the United States in 2022. This capacity surge resulted
in a massive 29% increase in solar generation in 2023. Solar PV continues to
dominate renewable capacity expansion but it will still lag behind wind-generated
electricity to 2026. As of December 2023, grid-connected solar PV and wind
capacity was close to reaching the symbolic milestone of 1 000 GW at the end of
2023. This rapid installation pace will enable the country to meet the 14th Five-
Year Plan target of doubling annual wind and solar power generation from 2020
by as early as 2024.
However, grid integration challenges at the distribution level could limit the rate of
renewables capacity growth in some regions, as observed in eastern provinces
like Hebei, Shandong and Henan. Grid saturation has led some localities to limit
the approval of new distributed renewable projects until grid upgrades are
completed. Moreover, falling prices across the entire solar PV industry chain,
driven by fierce competition and manufacturing overcapacity, could also hinder
installation rates as some major solar companies are already reporting declining
profits. Similarly, top Chinese wind manufacturers have incurred losses amid
plummeting prices, despite the growth in newly installed capacity.
Ensuring adequate electricity supply during summer and winter demand peaks
remains a top priority for the government. The National Energy Administration
(NEA) has forecast a tight power supply and demand balance for the 2023/2024
winter period in some provinces, with an anticipated peak load 140 GW higher
than last year. Policies and pilot projects related to peak load management and
variable renewable energy (VRE) integration are being promoted, and a new
measure now requires demand-side response to cover 3-5% of the peak load of
each province by 2025.
PAGE | 92
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
India
200
TWh
150
100
50
0
- 50
- 100
- 150
- 200
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources. The figures for 2024-2026 are
forecast values.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 93
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
In a milestone for India, its largest domestically built nuclear power plant, the
700 MWe Kakrapar Unit 3 reactor, commenced operations in Gujarat in June
2023, and reached full capacity in August. Based on the country’s project timeline,
we expect nuclear power generation to increase rapidly during 2024-2026, with
new plants totalling an estimated 4 GW of capacity entering commercial operation
over the period. India currently has 23 operable nuclear reactors providing about
2% of the country’s electricity.
We expect India’s share of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation (wind and
solar PV) to reach 15% by 2026. In order to ensure secure electricity supply and
adequately utilise high shares of renewable energy, the government announced
several policy measures to promote and develop energy storage technologies.
The National Electricity Plan (NEP), released by the Central Electricity Authority
(CEA) in May 2023, estimates an energy storage requirement of 16.1 GW (7.5 GW
pumped storage hydropower and 8.7 GW of batteries) by 2026-2027. Related to
this, the Ministry of Power announced the preparation of a national framework for
the planning and establishment of energy storage systems. Following that, viability
gap funding (VGF) for 4 000 MWh of battery energy storage system (BESS)
projects was formalised. In a current tariff-based competitive bidding process, the
discovered cost for BESS is INR 10.18/kWh (USD 0.12/kWh). The VGF scheme
targets a reduction in the levelised cost of BESS ranging from INR 5.5/kWh to
INR 6.6/kWh (USD 0.066/kWh to USD 0.079/kWh) by 2030-2031. To enable local
development of long duration storage at a cheaper rate than BESS, the
government released new guidelines for pumped storage hydropower projects in
April this year, with interstate transmission charges being waived for pumped
storage construction awarded by June 2025.
Distributed renewable energy (DRE) is currently far behind set targets but is likely
to increase with dedicated Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPO) introduced
that require designated consumers to meet a minimum of 2.7% of their total
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
consumption from DRE by 2026-2027. Efforts are also underway to achieve higher
efficiencies and to reduce the carbon footprint of thermal power plants, with about
94 units of total capacity of 65 GW operating with supercritical and ultra-
supercritical technologies. While several measures were introduced in the past
that allowed replacing thermal power with renewables, in 2023 the government
introduced minimum Renewable Generation Obligations (RGO) for coal/lignite-
fired power plants of 6% by 2026 and 10% by 2028. This means that a designated
consumer which is a coal/lignite-based plant will be obligated to supplement its
fossil-fired generation with a minimum supply of renewable electricity to fulfil its
RGO. It can do that via either supplying the renewable electricity itself or procuring
renewable power, e.g. through a power purchase agreement (PPA).
In 2023, the new grid code came into force along with general access network
regulations. These initiatives provide for renewable energy grid integration,
reliability and adequacy of reserves, reactive power and inertia support, flexibility
for buyers to optimise their procurement cost, and several aspects of scheduling,
dispatch and performance monitoring.
PAGE | 95
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
separate market segment will enable utilising available power capacity with cost
of production higher than the price cap of INR 12/unit (introduced in 2022 to
rationalise prices for buyers at the exchange), with a ceiling price of INR 20/unit.
The HP-DAM could, for example, cater to gas-fired power plants, imported coal-
fired power plants, and battery energy storage systems. CERC also approved
power exchange platforms to launch the tertiary reserve ancillary service (TRAS)
market segment to help maintain grid frequency levels and accommodate higher
shares of VRE.
In June 2023, India announced its carbon credit trading scheme, which aims to
reduce greenhouse gas emission for obligated entities by pricing emission through
carbon credit certificates. The announcement includes a comprehensive overview
of the institutional structure for the scheme with details on roles and
responsibilities for each ministry and agency involved. In our forecast, we expect
India’s emission intensity to improve, declining by 2.7% annually during 2024-
2026. The carbon credit trading scheme could support India’s long-term targets
for reduction in emission intensity by 2030.
Japan
The spike in prices for energy commodities following Russia's invasion of Ukraine
prompted utilities to raise their rates. In June 2023, seven major utilities increased
their regulated household rates by around 30% from previous levels. In response
to the crisis, the Japanese government provided subsidies for electricity and gas
bills in December 2022, and later extended this support until the spring of 2024.
PAGE | 96
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
increasing the installation target, and also decided to expand support for
semiconductor factories under the GX (Green Transformation) programme,
formalised in February 2023.
Gas and coal accounted for two-thirds of Japan's total power generation mix in
2023. Nuclear generation increased by 54%, to reach 8% of the generation mix
as a result of more reactors coming back online following periodical inspections in
2022 while the Takahama Units 1 and 2 were restarted in August and October
2023, respectively. Renewables also continued to grow, up by 6% with a share of
24%. This combination of expanding low-carbon power generation and falling
electricity demand led to a significant 10.3% year-on-year reduction in total
emissions in 2023.
Higher nuclear generation, expected once the Onagawa Unit 2 and Shimane
Unit 2 reactors are restarted in 2024, and a steady increase in renewables of about
5% annually to 2026, will reduce coal- and gas-fired generation by around 3% and
2% per year respectively and see emissions intensity improve by 4% per year
during the forecast period. Additional reactors may be brought back online in the
coming years following a government announcement in August 2022 that the
restart of nuclear power plants will be accelerated. In December 2023, the
regulator lifted the operational ban on the TEPCO-owned Kashiwazaki-Kariwa
nuclear power plant following safety improvements. Approval from the local
governments is also required before a restart.
PAGE | 97
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
60
40
20
- 20
- 40
- 60
- 80
- 100
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Japan Korea Australia
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources. The figures for 2024-2026 are
forecast values.
Korea
In 2023, the country’s total power capacity increased by 7 GW. This included
nuclear (1.4 GW) as well as coal-fired (1.1 GW), gas-fired (2 GW), and renewable
energy (3.8 GW) capacity. In 2024, further capacity additions are expected for
nuclear (1.4 GW), coal-fired (1.1 GW), gas-fired (0.7 GW) and renewable energy
(4.1 GW).
Coal is the mainstay of Korea’s electricity system, accounting for about one-third
of the total generation in 2023. However, coal power plant capacity is expected to
gradually decrease to 2026, with plans to convert seven coal-fired power plants to
gas-fired plants, with a total capacity of 3.6 GW. Nuclear capacity is forecast to
increase from about 25 GW in 2022 to 29 GW in 2026, with no plans to retire any
nuclear power plants in the latest plan. The share of renewable energy and nuclear
power in the generation inches higher, while coal and LNG post marginal declines
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
over the forecast period. Coal’s share is expected to edge lower from 32% in 2023
to 29% in 2026 while the share of gas falls from 29% to around 26%. By contrast,
the share of renewable energy in power generation will remain comparatively
modest, though growing, rising from 8% in 2023 to 11% in 2026.
The year 2023 saw a wave of announcements on policies and plans for new
generation installations, major transmission lines and substation facilities, among
other initiations to improve and expand the electricity system as part of its 10th
Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand (BPLE), which was
released in January 2023. The 10th power transmission and substation facility
plan was unveiled in May. In addition, in October, the Special Act on Expansion of
the National Power Grid was proposed in the National Assembly, which aims to
reduce transmission lines construction time and support power grid expansion,
including the establishment of a new long-distance transmission network, which
are essential to ensure the competitiveness of high-tech industries. Reportedly,
there is a critical need for expanding the power grid to meet growing electricity
demand from semiconductor factories, as well as to integrate nuclear and
renewable energy sources in the power mix. This draft law aims to include Variable
Renewable Energies (VREs) in the process of deciding which power units to
operate, known as the “unit commitment procedure”. These VREs will be
dispatched based on their merit order, meaning they will be ranked and used
based on their efficiency and cost, along with other traditional energy resources.
The draft law also aims to create a real-time market, which would generate price
signals for all types of technologies every 15 minutes. The Korea Power Exchange
(KPX) intends to expand this new market design across the mainland by the end
of 2025.
Lastly, the Special Act on the Promotion of Distributed Energy was enacted in
June 2023. The government aims to reduce the existing centralised power
generation and raise the share of distributed power generation in the Korean
energy market up to 30% by 2040, with a set of measures that, in particular, would
promote the use of small renewable IPPs close to demand centres and enable
them to sell electricity generation directly to consumers.
PAGE | 99
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Australia
Most capacity additions in the coming years are anticipated to come from
renewable sources, with a small contribution from new gas-fired capacity. In 2023,
almost 6 GW of renewables capacity was installed, including over 4 GW of solar
PV and around 1.5 GW of wind. We expect a similar pace of installations to be
maintained over the forecast period. Coal capacity continued to decline, with the
Liddell coal power station closing its remaining three units (1 500 MW) in April
2023. Multiple large-scale battery projects were connected to the National
Electricity Market in 2023, bringing utility battery capacity close to 1.5 GW and
exceeding the capacity of pumped storage hydropower. Residential battery
systems have been estimated at almost 2 GW.
In 2023, total renewables generation reached 35% of the electricity mix, consisting
mainly of solar (15%), wind (12%) and hydropower (6%). The share of renewables
is expected to reach 43% in 2026, surpassing coal for the first time and driving a
steady decline in fossil fuel generation. Coal fell slightly from 49% of the mix in
2022 to 48% in 2023 and is expected to decline to 41% in 2026. The share of gas
fell to 16% in 2023 and is forecast to drop to around 15% by 2026. The regional
South Australian electricity market saw the share of VRE generation reaching 75%
in 2023, which rose from 71% the previous year, and up from about 50% in 2019.
Due to the rising contribution of renewables and declining coal share, in 2023
Australia continued to see reductions in both total emissions (-5%) and emissions
intensity (-4%). We expect emissions intensity to continue declining by around 5%
annually on average to 2026, while total power sector emissions fall 3% per year
on average.
In December 2023 Australia opened the first bids in its Capacity Investment
Scheme, which was established at the end of 2022 to encourage investment in
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 100
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Southeast Asia
100
TWh
80
60
40
20
0
- 20
- 40
- 60
- 80
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources. The figures for 2024-2026 are
forecast values.
PAGE | 101
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
7% through 2026, but their share in generation rises only slightly, from 26% in
2023 to 28% in 2026.
Indonesia
In the coming years, we expect that electricity demand will continue a steady rise
of about 6% for the 2024-2026 period, in line with the strong economic growth
forecast in the country. Growth in renewables is forecast at 8% per year in 2024-
2026. Coal and gas-fired generation increase by around 5% and 6%, respectively,
over the same period, and maintain a steady share in the electricity generation
mix.
PAGE | 102
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
40
30
20
10
- 10
- 20
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Indonesia Viet Nam Thailand
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources. The figures for 2024-2026 are
forecast values.
Viet Nam
New renewable capacity additions will bring the share of non-hydro renewable
electricity in total generation from 16% in 2023 to 19% in 2026, just shy of the
target. The share of gas in total generation is expected to increase from 9% to
11%, while coal averages around 43% in 2024-2026, down from 46% in 2023. To
meet demand growth, total generation from gas, coal and renewables are all
expected to rise until 2026.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Due to its high reliance on domestic hydropower and high gas prices, Vietnam had
to significantly ramp up coal-fired generation in 2023, increasing its average CO2
intensity of electricity generation by 11%. This level is expected to fall in 2024 by
6% on an assumed rebound in hydro availability as well as higher PV and wind
generation. Interconnection is seen as a key mechanism to smooth out these
variations.
During the power crisis, Northern Viet Nam suffered rolling blackouts and sudden
power outages, with an estimated peak demand and supply deficit of 1.8 GW and
cost of USD 1.4 billion. During this power crunch, Viet Nam received support from
China, which resumed cross-border electricity exports to the country for the first
time since 2016. Given the structure of the Vietnamese power grid, the exposure
of the northern region is particularly acute. According to the Ministry of Industry
and Trade, in 2024 Vietnam’s northern region is likely to face a power shortage of
up to 1.8 GW. Against a backdrop of a strong rise in annual power demand,
Northern Viet Nam may continue facing power shortages in the coming years.
In 2022, the state utility recorded a loss of VND 20.7 trillion (USD 874.5 million)
due to rising fuel production prices. In the first half of 2023, the losses rose to more
than VND 35.4 trillion (USD 1.46 billion), according to a report by the Ministry of
Planning and Investment.
Thailand
PAGE | 104
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
share of coal is expected to rise by two percentage points while gas decreases by
two percentage points, and renewables grow slightly. This corresponds to growth
in both emissions and intensity through the forecast period.
Thailand gets more than 60% of its electricity from natural gas and has been
increasing imports to meet demand. Recent increases in LNG prices have
triggered concerns of another gas and power crisis. Despite this, the cabinet
decided in September 2023 to reduce the electricity rate as a means to lower the
cost of living.
There is a call to expand reserves and production at domestic gas fields to boost
the country’s energy security. State-controlled PTT Exploration & Production plans
to double gas production at Erawan, its biggest field, to 800 million cubic feet per
day in early 2024. Imported LNG accounted for about 29% of the gas used in
power generation in 2022, more than double the share in 2018, according to data
from the Energy Regulatory Commission.
Additions to the 3.4 GW of solar PV and 1.5 GW of wind power were limited in
2022 while solar capacity increased around 400 MW in 2023. The largest source
of renewables in Thailand is bioenergy, with a more than 50% share of renewable
electricity generation. Achieving the national target for carbon neutrality requires
renewable electricity to reach 68% of power generation by 2040. Growth out to
2026 is expected to come predominantly from solar PV, with some wind.
Feed-in tariffs are offered for small power producers in specific parts of the
country, as well as PPAs for commercial scale projects, in order to reach a quota
for renewable electricity projects. However, the Thai Energy Regulatory
Commission has said that there is potential for faster growth of rooftop solar if the
government enacts policies to encourage private sector uptake.
Malaysia
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
semiconductor plants and data centre investments in 2024 are expected to boost
electricity demand in the following years. We forecast average annual electricity
demand growth of 3.4% through 2026.
The Malaysian government has set a new target of 70% renewable energy in the
power generation mix by 2050. Efforts to accelerate renewable energy investment
include increasing the green energy tariff, ten initiatives in the NETR and removing
barriers to renewable energy growth. In addition, the ban on renewable energy
exports was lifted in 2023 to encourage investment in local renewable resources.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
14
TWh
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Malaysia Philippines Singapore
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources. The figures for 2024-2026 are
forecast values.
Philippines
PAGE | 107
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Emission intensity decreases by 1.5% per year as the share of coal declines with
growing renewables and natural gas-fired generation.
The Philippines is targeting 35% renewables in its electricity mix by 2030. In 2023,
the share sat at around 23%, and it is forecast to grow by close to 8% per year on
average from 2024-2026, bringing its share in electricity to 25% in the same
period. This increase is mostly driven by solar and wind, whose share in the
electricity mix more than doubles from 3% in 2023 to 7% in 2026. Measures in
place to support growth in renewables include the Green Energy Option Program,
which enables consumers with sufficient load and metering to directly procure
renewables, and allowing 100% foreign ownership of renewable assets, since
December 2022.
Singapore
Natural gas made up around 93% of Singapore’s generation in 2023 and its share
is expected to decline to 92% in the coming years as clean sources increase,
despite average annual growth of gas-fired electricity around 1.5%. Renewable
generation is forecast to reach 6% of the generation mix in 2025, mainly from solar
PV and biomass. Solar PV generation sees nearly 15% annual average growth
for 2024-2026 due to ongoing capacity additions. New gas-fired capacity is also
coming online, with construction started in July 2023 on a 600 MW advanced
combined-cycle gas turbine power plant in Jurong Island, and expected to be
completed in the first half of 2026. The plant will initially run purely on natural gas
but is designed to co-fire with up to 30% hydrogen and can be converted to run
entirely on hydrogen.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 108
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Due to the high dependency on natural gas, electricity prices in Singapore have
experienced substantial volatility due to spikes in global fuel prices and gas supply
disruptions. In addition to measures including a standby LNG facility and a
temporary price cap, in October 2023 Singapore’s Minister for Trade and Industry
announced that an entity will be established to undertake centralised procurement
of gas for the power sector, which the EMA expects to set up in 2024.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Americas
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
PAGE | 110
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
United States
The IRA and BIL supported significant investments in the power sector, with
USD 110 billion for clean energy manufacturing projects, of which more than
USD 70 billion was for the electric vehicle (EV) supply chain as of August 2023. A
further USD 125 billion has been awarded for clean energy generation projects.
As of November 2023, the BIL awarded funding for 44 000 major infrastructure
projects across the 50 states, including spending on electricity grid reliability and
resilience. The IRA also launched the Energy Infrastructure Reinvestment (EIR)
Program (section 1706) that guarantees loans for projects that aim to retool,
repower, repurpose, or replace energy infrastructure or to improve the efficiency
of existing energy infrastructure.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
300
TWh
200
100
- 100
- 200
- 300
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources. The figures for 2024-2026 are
forecast values.
PAGE | 112
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Power generation share in the United States in July and August, 2021-2023
100%
Other
80% Solar
Wind Onshore
Share in power mix
60% Nuclear
26% 22% 19% Hydro
Coal
40%
Natural Gas
0%
2021 2022 2023
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Source: IEA analysis based on official data from country and national regulatory authorities.
PAGE | 113
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Canada
Hydropower, which contributes more than half of electricity supply in the country,
fell by almost 7% due to reduced supply from snowmelt as a result of the mild
winter. This in turn caused Canada to reduce electricity exports to the US by
around 15% from Quebec and 30% from British Columbia in the first half of the
year.
PAGE | 114
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
80
60
40
20
- 20
- 40
- 60
- 80
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Canada Mexico Brazil
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources. The figures for 2024-2026 are
forecast values.
Mexico
PAGE | 115
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
reducing costs and logistical setbacks. The impact of nearshoring will likely unfold
gradually in coming years, and steadily increase electricity demand in the forecast
period.
30
25 2018
2019
20
2020
15 2021
2022
10
2023
5
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from Sistema de Información de Mercado.
In 2023, the emissions intensity of the power sector rose by about 4% y-o-y,
reaching 446 g CO2/kWh due to lower hydropower generation. An increase in
natural gas, nuclear, solar and wind production combined to substitute for the loss
of hydropower. The growth of solar and wind in Mexico are expected to be limited
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Along with increased solar and wind power, gas-fired generation falls from 59% to
57% while coal’s share declines from 7% to 6%, which combined lead to a
reduction in power sector emissions intensity of almost 3% per year for 2024-2026.
Brazil
Capacity factors of hydropower in Brazil had fallen from an average 56% in 1990-
2021 to 42% in 2017-2020, and to a record low 38% in 2021 – its lowest level at
least since 1990. Severe droughts in 2021 had caused water shortages and power
cuts. In 2022, hydropower generation recovered, rising by 17% year-on-year, and
recording an average capacity factor of 44%. In 2023, hydro capacity factor was
again about 44%, with generation increasing by 1%. At the same time, gas-fired
generation declined by 10%, whereas coal-fired output increased by 10%.
Out to 2026, we expect most of new electricity demand in Brazil to be met by wind
and solar PV. In our forecast, combined wind and solar PV generation in 2026 will
be almost 50% more than that of 2022, reaching over 200 TWh, and achieving a
combined generation share of almost 30% (up from around 20% in 2023). With
this, total renewable generation in Brazil will account for about 95% of the
electricity mix in 2026. Considering the growing high share of renewables in the
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Other Americas
Electricity demand in Chile in 2023 rose by less than 1% year-on-year, mirroring
flat economic growth. A highlight in 2023 was the record share of more than 60%
of renewables in the electricity mix. Thanks to strong rainfall, hydropower output
was around 10% above the 2018-2022 average. Additionally, solar PV and wind
provided around one-third of generation in 2023, reaching hourly shares of over
70% in the national power system in more than 30 hours throughout 2023. For the
2024-2026 period, we expect an average growth in demand of 2.4% per year. The
corresponding rise in electricity demand will be more than met by increased solar
PV and wind generation, which combined are expected to rise by around 15% per
year on average, based on the current pipeline of projects. This would push both
gas and coal-fired generation down rapidly, to around one-third of the 2023 level
in 2026, bringing power generation emissions intensity below 100 g CO2/kWh.
Chile has a coal-power phase-out plan by 2040 at the latest.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
The public agenda of the Chilean power sector in 2023 was centred around
electricity tariffs and reforms to advance infrastructure development. The tariffs for
consumers were first frozen in 2019, to avoid price increases against a
background of social unrest. In 2023, the government abolished the “winter tariff”
for certain user segments. This means that a surcharge on the price will not be
applied anymore during autumn and winter months, aiming to reduce household
energy expenditure and to foster electrification of heat. On the other hand, in the
context of the high levels of VRE curtailment, the government proposed measures
to improve market conditions for renewable projects. These measures include
redistribution of congestion income for renewable projects affected by congestion,
a tender for additional battery storage capacity (more than 500 MW is under
construction), and updated transmission planning. These actions are part of the
“Initial Agenda for the Second Phase of the Energy Transition”, which is meant to
be implemented by 2024. Further, the 2 x 1.5 GW high-voltage direct current
(HVDC) transmission line project Kimal-Lo Aguirre, set to connect solar-rich areas
with large load centres, started the environmental permitting process, and is
expected to be operational before the end of this decade.
In June, the government published Decree 0929, which, among other aspects,
mandates the regulator to design market mechanisms for demand response, for
the remuneration of small-scale generation energy excess and for the update of
the wholesale price formation process. These measures aim to promote efficiency
and competition in the provision of power. Although the decree does not directly
modify the electricity tariff structure, it provides guidelines for the upcoming work
of the regulator. Further, after tariffs were frozen during the Covid-19 pandemic,
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
which has put financial pressure on several electricity suppliers, the government
enabled a COP 1 billion credit line (around USD 230 million). This is aimed at
guaranteeing that these companies can keep providing power to end users.
Costa Rica’s electricity demand rose more than 2% in 2023, in line with economic
growth. The impacts of El Niño led to lower hydropower output over the year,
resulting in thermal generation to account for more than 5% of the 2023 electricity
mix – moving Costa Rica’s power system away from its typical renewables share
close to 100%.
In 2023 the government of Costa Rica also focused on market and regulation
reforms. In October, a proposed law (project 23 414) seeks to increase
competition in the electricity market, harmonise the regulatory framework and
create an independent system operator, among other measures.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Europe
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
1
Note by the Republic of Türkiye
The information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no
single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Türkiye recognises the Turkish
Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United
Nations, Türkiye shall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”.
Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European Union The Republic of Cyprus is
recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Türkiye. The information in this document
relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 121
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
We expect electricity demand to grow by 2.4% per year on average over the 2024-
26 forecast period in Europe, supported by a gradual recovery in the industrial
activity, further electrification of the heating and transport sectors and the
expansion in the data centre sector.
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
European Union
200
TWh
150
100
50
0
- 50
- 100
- 150
- 200
- 250
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources. The figures for 2024-2026 are
forecast values.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
PAGE | 123
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
In June 2023, the Commission reported its review of the emergency interventions.
Accordingly, the binding target of 5% electricity demand reduction in peak hours
was adopted as proposed, however challenges emerged in many member states
in the implementation of the indicative target of reducing total monthly gross
electricity consumption by 10% (compared to the last five years). Reportedly, the
implementation of the revenue cap was problematic due to the short time frame
within which the measure had to be introduced and because of difficulties with
data collection and processing. Concerns were raised by various stakeholders that
the revenue cap may have impacted existing PPAs and other long-term contracts,
as well as discouraged them from the initiation of new agreements. A detailed
analysis of the introduced measures are provided in the 2023 Market Monitoring
Report by the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER).
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
On the supply side, the reform enables member states to introduce remuneration
schemes for providing back-up capacity and medium- to long-term secured supply
services more easily, and agrees that capacity remuneration mechanisms should
play an integral part in the future electricity market design. The requirement for net
zero emissions for these capacity services can be derogated until 2028. Member
countries are also granted the possibility to introduce support measures for
demand response and storage.
Further, according to the market design agreement, public funding and support
schemes for renewable and nuclear projects should be increasingly built on two-
sided contracts for difference (CFDs). This has been a matter of dispute between
some EU member states, including Germany and France, when these reforms
were tabled. This dispute centred around the concern that with the new power
market reforms, France would receive substantial profits from their existing
nuclear power fleet. Some EU countries were concerned that France could then
use these excess profits, estimated in the range of EUR 7-20 billion to subsidise
its industry. This led Germany to request that CFDs not apply to existing nuclear
power plants. The compromise reached by EU countries proposes that while
CFDs are mandatory for support schemes for new investments in renewable and
low-carbon power generation, CFDs are optional for existing infrastructure. This
alleviated the concerns of some countries as the European Commission’s
competition authorities would ensure fair competition throughout the process.
Two-way CFDs distribute excess revenues to consumers if the market price is
above a pre-agreed strike price, while if the market prices are below a pre-agreed
strike price, then the difference is reimbursed to the generator. The aim is to help
increase the deployment of renewables by providing a guaranteed return on
investment as well as more predictable pricing. The proceeds of the CFD
instruments are supposed to be directed back to consumers, either directly or via
investments targeted to reduce energy prices.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
central element of the regulation are provisions to speed up the approval of new
renewable energy projects. Specifically, renewable energy projects will be defined
as of “overriding public interest”, reducing the legal options to object against them.
In the transport sector, member states commit to either reduce the emission
intensity by 14.5% or establish a binding share of 29% renewable energy by 2030.
There are also minimal requirements for various sources of biofuels introduced.
For industry, the goal is to increase the renewable energy share by 1.6% every
year, with an additional specific target to source 42% of hydrogen from renewable
sources by 2030 and 60% by 2035. In the building sector, a target of 49%
renewable energy by 2030 was agreed, with a minimum annual increase of 0.8%
until 2026, and subsequently 1.1% through 2030.
In its EU Action Plan for Grids, published in November 2023, the European
Commission reinforced its position concerning the central role of electricity grids
to support a more decentralised, digitalised and flexible electricity system. The
plan recognises the challenge of increased capacity needs and ageing
infrastructure. Various measures are proposed to enable the necessary
investments. These include the Implementation of Projects of Common Interest
plan, improve the incentives for investment through regulatory clarity, faster
permitting, and promoting funding programmes for smart grids and distribution
networks. The long-term planning of grids is proposed to be improved through
facilitating the communication and exchanges between TSOs, DSOs and
generators.
Germany
We anticipate a gradual but slow recovery in demand for electricity in the industrial
sector in 2024, given subdued energy prices. EV and heat pump sales are then
expected to result in electricity demand growth of 2.2% in 2024, followed by an
average 2.6% annually until 2026. At the same time, we forecast fossil generation
to continue its downward trajectory, with coal and gas plunging 20% and 8%,
respectively, per year. In 2024, we expect renewable generation to reach more
than 60% of total generation, and to have an average annual growth rate of 11.5%
over the 2024-2026 period.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
In the renewables segment, solar PV reached its expansion targets for 2023
already in October and is forecast to continue growing rapidly to reach 23% of
generation in 2026. In contrast to rapid solar development, wind deployments fell
short of installation targets in 2023, as permitting challenges hampered faster
deployment. Based on the current project pipeline, we expect growth of around
12% in wind generation during the forecast period, bringing its share to 35% in
generation in 2026.
60
40
20
0
- 20
- 40
- 60
- 80
- 100
- 120
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources.
In April 2023, the last three nuclear reactors were taken offline, marking the end
of Germany’s nuclear power generation. Against the backdrop of the completed
nuclear and planned coal phase out, the government announced in 2023 its so-
called Kraftwerksstrategie, which seeks to tender gas-fired power plants, and to
enable decarbonised generation from dispatchable units, which will complement
increasing shares of renewables. The tendered volume for the next years
aggregates to at least 10 GW of hydrogen-ready capacity by 2026, temporarily
running on natural gas, and another 4.4 GW of so-called hydrogen-fired sprinter
plants until 2028, running on hydrogen from commissioning, and 4.4 GW of hybrid
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
To address grid congestion between Germany's RES resource-rich north and the
demand centres in the west and south, following ACER’s decision, the TSOs are
currently examining four distinct configurations for German bidding zones from a
total of twelve potential options.
France
While the French government extended the electricity tariff shield put in place to
protect customers from the worst of 2022 power price highs to the end of 2023,
the regulated market price cap (which applies to households, small enterprises,
and local administrations under a certain size) was increased on two occasions.
The two price hikes – 15% in February and 10% in August – weighed on consumer
bills and electricity consumption habits, contributing to the year-on-year fall in
power demand, notably through the first three quarters of the year.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
40
2017-21 range
35 2017-21 average
30 2022
25 2023
20
15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from RTE, éCO2mix.
In March 2023, the French government passed its Renewable Acceleration Bill,
aimed at facilitating the deployment of renewable technologies, notably through
the acceleration of permitting procedures and garnering more civil society buy-in
through increased participation of local actors. Nevertheless, the bill was met with
a mixed reception from market and political actors and much of its impact is likely
to be felt only later in the decade.
Electricity demand is set to grow by an annual average of 2.6% over the outlook
period, recovering to pre-crisis levels only by 2026. Average annual total
generation growth of 4% should ensure a strengthening export margin for the
French market over the coming years.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Italy
Coal fell to 7% of the generation mix in 2023, a 3 percentage point reduction from
the year before. The decline was influenced by restrictions of coal-fired power
generation to a minimum, as the country scaled back emergency measures
implemented in 2022 due to risks of gas shortage. It was also a result of the
combined effects of lower demand and higher renewable generation and imports.
Despite a 20% year-on-year decline in 2023, natural gas remains a major fuel
source for power in Italy, with an estimated share of 43% in generation. However,
renewables surpassed gas in 2023 with a share of 45%. Out to 2026, we expect
gas-fired generation in Italy to decline by around 1.6% on average, its share falling
to 39% in 2026.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Spain
The decline in total generation (around 4.5%) was higher than the drop in demand,
as electricity exports decreased by roughly 30% following the surge that occurred
in 2022 due to high gas prices and the Iberian Exception mechanism. Most of the
drop was in combined-cycle generation, which is estimated to have decreased by
one-third. Coal power generation in Spain will come to an end during the forecast
period as the country’s last four coal plants operating (Aboño, Soto de Ribera, Los
Barrios, As Pontes and es Murterar) have announced conversion to gas,
alternative uses like hydrogen or closure. In the meantime, the Spanish Supreme
Court has authorised Naturgy to temporarily close ten combined-cycles after a
long judicial case. At the time of the writing of this report, the company had not yet
announced its final decision for the plants, with implications for the security of
supply and future regulation of capacity mechanisms.
The Iberian Exception mechanism was extended until the end of 2023, despite an
easing in the gas prices following the highs in 2022 that motivated its introduction.
In the coming years, successful integration of growing renewable generation
(particularly, solar PV), especially in months with weaker demand and strong
sunlight – typically April and May – will be important. The schedule of nuclear
closure is still foreseen to take place from 2027 to 2035.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
40
30
20
10
0
- 10
- 20
- 30
- 40
- 50
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Spain United Kingdom Türkiye
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources.
United Kingdom
A portion of the UK’s existing supply of electricity has been secured by EDF
extending the operating life of two nuclear power plants until March 2026, which
provide 5% of Britain’s current power supply. Coal-fired generation was necessary
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
to ensure electricity supply in 2023. National Grid ESO was forced to call upon
reserve coal power plants due to tight supply as a cold snap in March increased
demand for heating and a heatwave in June raised air conditioning demand.
Following these events the plants were decommissioned, in line with the UK’s
commitment to phase out coal-fired electricity generation by 2024.
In 2022, the United Kingdom became a net electricity exporter for the first time as
continental Europe bought cheaper UK electricity to compensate for nuclear plant
outages and reduced hydro output. This was reversed in 2023 when the UK’s net
imports amounted to about 25 TWh.
price trading at a lower price than the EU price. The CBAM is likely to lead to levies
on exports such as steel and aluminium to the European Union as a result of the
lower carbon pricing in the United Kingdom.
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero published their response to the
consultation for the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements. A wide range of
reforms were proposed to incentivise decarbonisation, increase security and
ensure affordable prices. One such proposed reform is to split the market into
renewable and non-renewable pools whereby cheaper, but more volatile prices,
could be accessed from a renewable power pool. Another proposed reform is to
switch to a zonal or nodal pricing system to use the network more efficiently and
avoid grid congestion. While the vast majority of those who participated in the
consultation agreed that power market reform is necessary, there is a lack of
consensus on the degree and speed at which the reforms should be implemented.
Ireland
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
solar, hydro and biomass power generation were outweighed by a decline in wind.
Ireland is in Phase 4 of the IEA’s phases of system integration, where variable
renewables meet almost all demand in some periods. This is mainly due to wind
power, which made up about 33% of total power generation in 2023.
In Ireland, data centres are estimated to have consumed about 5.3 TWh of
electricity in 2022, up by 31% compared to 2021. This accounts for 17% of
Ireland’s electricity demand, equivalent to the consumption of all urban dwellings.
Considering current projections and announced plans, we estimate that this could
reach around 12 TWh by 2026, when it will make up more than 30% of national
electricity demand. The state-owned TSO EirGrid has imposed a de facto
moratorium on data centres in Greater Dublin due to a rapid growth in data centre
stock, hence grid congestion especially in that area. The moratorium prohibits the
submission of data centre planning applications from late 2022 to 2028 but does
not impede contracts that are already in the pipeline. Some data centres have
instead connected to Dublin’s gas network to produce their own power as an
alternative to connecting to Ireland’s electricity network but this work-around was
also closed by the government.
PAGE | 134
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Denmark
Denmark is the country with the highest share of variable renewable energy (solar
PV and wind power) in the world at an estimated 63% of electricity generation in
2023. Denmark is in Phase 5 of system integration of renewables and maintaining
power system stability. This has been addressed so far through a combination of
electricity trade through interconnections, increasing power plant flexibility,
demand flexibility, as well as other measures.
Denmark has expanded its interconnection capacity with the completion of the
1 400 MW Viking Link Interconnector. The world’s longest land and subsea
interconnector connects Denmark to the United Kingdom in addition to existing
interconnections with Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands and Norway. This is key
for Denmark as it can export electricity during periods of surplus wind power
generation and import electricity under low wind conditions.
Denmark passed a bill to allow direct electricity lines, opening up the possibility of
Power-to-X projects which connect power producers to power consumers directly,
bypassing the power grid. This set the foundation for a world first Power-to-X
tender whereby state support would be provided for projects using abundant and
cheap electricity from wind for the electricity-intensive process of producing green
hydrogen. Denmark plans to utilise its offshore wind resources to develop energy
islands in the North Sea that will generate up to 10 GW of electricity when fully
expanded. A tender has thus far been delayed as consultation is currently ongoing
to make the project economically viable.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Türkiye
Following the recovery in 2022, hydropower output declined by 4.5% in 2023 due
to an extended drought. Wind generation remained at similar levels, while PV
generation increased by 24%. This year's investments in solar power achieved a
significant milestone, with the country reaching more than 10 GW of solar power
capacity. Overall, the share of renewables in total power generation remained
stable compared to 2022.
While renewable generation fell slightly in 2023 compared to 2022 due to a decline
in hydropower, we forecast an upswing this year driven by an assumed recovery
in hydropower and advancements in solar and bioenergy. By 2026, these factors
will contribute to renewables comprising 53% of the electricity mix, up from 42%
in 2023.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Ukraine
Around half of the high-voltage transformers on the Ukraine grid have been
damaged or destroyed, while power capacity has been reduced by nearly 50% of
its pre-2022 levels, from 37 GW to 19 GW. As a result, electricity demand in
Ukraine stayed roughly 20% below pre-2022 levels, despite increasing slightly in
2023. Nuclear remains the largest source of electricity generation at around 60%
of total output. Renewables supplied around 10%, mostly hydro (6%), followed by
solar PV (2%).
Forecasts for supply and demand are highly uncertain, but it is anticipated that
demand will increase slightly over the next three years. The most likely source of
supply increase would be from nuclear power, followed by renewables.
Ukraine synchronised its grid with the EU electricity grid in March 2022 and has
halted power exchanges with Russia and Belarus. Imports from Moldova have
increased while overall trade has decreased, leaving a balanced external position.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Eurasia
5% 100
4% 80
3% 60
2% 40
1% 20
0% 0
-1% - 20
-2% - 40
-3% - 60
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources.
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Russia
Kazakhstan
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Russia, which surged by 75% y-o-y in the first ten months of 2023. Domestic
power generation was largely supported by stronger wind power output, which
increased substantially by 35% y-o-y .
Power disruptions and scheduled cut offs have been ongoing in major cities and
adjacent regions of the interconnected nations of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and
Uzbekistan since 2022, primarily attributed to grid imbalances such as system
overloads. In 2023, Western Kazakhstan experienced frequent controlled power
outages lasting up to five hours while the regional authorities developed a strategy
to prioritize electricity supply. Kazakhstan has recently been making efforts to
modernize its outdated electricity grid infrastructure after gas exports were
interrupted by energy crises in the country.
Other Eurasia
Following the strong rebound in 2021 of 4%, electricity demand growth slowed in
other Eurasian markets to an average of 3% per year in 2022 and 2023.
In Uzbekistan, preliminary data indicates that the country’s electricity output rose
by 3% in the first eleven months of 2023 compared to the same period a year
before. Uzbekistan continued to expand its power generation capacities in 2023.
Gas-fired generation accounted for just over 80% of power generation. The Shirin
thermal power plant (1.5 GW) started operations in October 2023 and is expected
to ramp-up to full operations in Q1 2024. According to the Ministry of Energy, around
1.5 GW of wind and solar capacity was targeted to be installed in 2023. The
continued decline in natural gas production in Uzbekistan (down by 9.5% y-o-y in
the first eleven months of 2023) continues to weigh on electricity supply security.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
generation fell by 30%. Solar power generation rose by 30%. Overall, the share of
renewables in Azerbaijan’s power remained broadly stable at around 6%.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Middle East
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
by 2.3% to 552 g CO2/kWh in 2023, amid the rising share of nuclear generation
led by in the UAE. Over the 2024-2026 outlook period, CO2 intensity is forecast to
fall further, by an average annual 1.7% to 497 g CO2/kWh, as the share of nuclear
and renewables rise in the region’s electricity generation mix.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia aims to reach 50% of renewables in its generation mix by 2030. In
2023, the country shortlisted contractors for 1.5 GW of solar PV projects to be
2 While there is no clear desalination capacity target in the country, key actors such as the state-
owned Saline Water Conversion Corporation (SWCC), which is the country's largest operator by
capacity, made recent announcements saying that 8 of its 13 thermal desalination plants (94% of its
production from thermal desalination) are either being replaced with reverse osmosis or under
construction. In addition, SWCC aims for 30% of its production to come from renewable sources,
including solar PV, which signals an increase in power demand in the coming years.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
50
40
30
20
10
- 10
- 20
- 30
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Middle East Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources. The figures for 2024-2026 are
forecast values.
PAGE | 144
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
The total share of renewable energy in the generation mix increased significantly,
from 5% in 2022 to 8% in 2023. The Emirates Water and Electricity Company
(EWEC) intends to increase Abu Dhabi's total solar power capacity to 7 GW by
2030. Current total power demand is estimated at 7.7 GW. Moreover, Abu Dhabi
aims to produce 60% of power generation from nuclear and renewables combined
by 2035. At the federal level, this target reaches 50% by 2050. After final testing
in late 2023, the UAE is getting ready to bring online the fourth reactor of the
Barakah nuclear plant in early 2024. With this newest addition, the plant is
expected to meet over 25% of the country's power demand.
While nuclear generation grew by about 70% in 2023, the biggest share in
electricity generation remains gas, accounting for more than 70% of total supply.
The share of natural gas in the country's power mix, however, is expected to
decline to 64% by 2026 as nuclear generation rises and renewables deployment
accelerates. Due to the large increases in both renewable and nuclear generation,
power emissions fell by 11% in 2023. We expect a further sharp decrease of 9%
in 2024 as the fourth unit of the Barakah nuclear power plant becomes operational,
followed by a gradual increase as renewables only partially meets demand growth
to 2026. The renewable share in electricity generation is set to rise to 12% in 2026,
while the share of low-emissions sources (nuclear and renewables together)
reaches 36%.
On the demand side, the Abu Dhabi Distribution Company (ADDC) committed to
investing AED 20 million (around USD 5.4 million) in air-conditioning optimisation,
which would cover around 850 mosques in the Abu Dhabi, including the massive
Dhafra region that covers nearly two-thirds of the emirate. The company estimates
emissions savings to reach 26 GWh and 4 600 tonnes of CO2 annually. This
measure feeds into the country’s Demand Side Management (DSM) and Energy
Rationalisation Strategy, which aim to reduce overall electricity consumption by
22% and water consumption by 32% by 2030.
Kuwait’s peak electricity load hit a new all-time high of 17.6 GW in August 2023,
up almost 5% on the previous year’s high. The severity of the situation has led to
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
power shortages. With no new capacity set to come online before summer 2025,
the Ministry of Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy launched in May 2023 a
national awareness campaign to save electricity and water (Weffir campaign).
Plans for renewables received a boost when the Ministry of Energy announced on
10 September 2023 that ongoing grid modernisation plans would add 2 GW of
renewables from wind and solar to the grid, although no timetable was provided.
We see renewable generation rising to 23% of the mix by 2026, mostly coming
from solar PV. Gas-fired generation also increases by around 6% per year, while
coal declines sharply, leading to annual emission reductions of around 10% out to
2026.
Prior to the opening of Qatar's first major solar power plant, the 2 TWh/year
Al Kharsaah, in October 2022, all power capacity was based on fossil fuels, mainly
from gas. The Qatar National Vision 2030 aims to generate 20% of electricity from
renewable energy sources by 2030, with a focus on solar PV to meet that goal.
Two new solar plants in the Mesaieed and Ras Laffan industrial cities are expected
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
to be operational by the end of 2024. This will double the country’s renewable
energy output once completed and bring renewables to 5% of the power mix in
2025-2026.
In September 2023, QatarEnergy, the world's largest Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
producer, announced that it was expanding its targets for installing photovoltaic
power capacity from 4 GW to 5 GW by 2035, to liquefy natural gas using
renewable electricity. The company has a major expansion project under
construction that will lead to a 64% increase in Qatar’s LNG production from 2021
to 2030.
Oman has only one operating utility-scale solar facility, the 500 MW Ibri II solar PV
plant, which came online in 2021, and one 50 MW wind farm. Two additional solar
photovoltaic power plants, Manah I and II, with a combined capacity of 1 000 MW,
are due to start operations in 2025, which would nearly triple the existing capacity
from renewables. We expect renewables to reach nearly 8% of the generation mix
in 2026, while gas-fired electricity falls from 93% currently to 88%.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Africa
Our forecast for Africa anticipates much faster growth for the 2024-2026 period,
with average annual electricity demand rising by more than 4%. The higher growth
rates also reflect a rebound in South African power demand following the restart
of shut-in capacity. We expect per capita electricity consumption in Africa to
recover to its 2010-2015 levels by the end of 2026 at the earliest. In our forecast,
two-thirds of additional demand growth in Africa is expected to be met by
expanding renewables, with natural gas supplying most of the rest. Emission
intensity of electricity generation is expected to fall from 520 g CO2/kWh in 2023
to 490 g CO2/kWh in 2026.
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
2020
2022
2024
2026
PAGE | 148
Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
South Africa
Meanwhile, the timely procurement of new power capacity through auctions since
the Covid-19 pandemic has proven largely unsuccessful due to a number of
issues. Escalating costs as a result of inflation have prevented successful projects
from reaching financial close.
days
16 320
14 280
12 240
10 200
8 160
6 120
4 80
2 40
0 0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Source: Eskom (2023), Eskom Data Portal.
As a result of these challenges, 2023 will be the worst year to date for load
shedding, with the total volume of load shedding up until the end of September
already exceeding the total in the previous eight years combined.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
The latest renewable auction has fared no better. During evaluation of the bids it
emerged that the grid hosting capacity in the Eastern and Western Cape (where
all wind bids had been received) had been reduced to zero and so only 860 MW
of solar capacity (out of 5 200 MW renewables tendered) was procured. This will
further hamper the success of the latest plans for procurement. The government
of South Africa announced several new auctions in December 2023 for a suite of
technologies, including 5 000 MW of wind and solar PV capacity, 2 000 MW of
gas-fired projects and 615 MW of battery storage capacity. The latter comes after
the successful procurement of around 500 MW of battery storage capacity last
year, the first auction of its kind in South Africa. In addition, the government
announced plans to procure 2 500 MW of nuclear capacity. In an attempt to solve
the ongoing power crisis, also approved an updated integrated resource plan,
although this is yet to be released for public comment.
Despite these critical issues around power capacity, demand is expected to grow
by 5%. on average over the forecast period. This is a sharp reversal of the -2%
average for the 2018-2023 timeframe. This is based on the return to service of
nuclear generation and damaged units at the Kusile coal-power plant. Additionally,
we expect renewable capacity to continue to come online from previous auctions
through direct procurement via PPAs in the private sector. This will result in the
emission intensity of the system decreasing by around 2% y-o-y on average over
the forecast period, reaching just under 800 g CO2/kWh in 2026.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
number of applications
MW
4 000
3 500 375
3 000
2 500
250
2 000
1 500
1 000 125
500
0 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Source: National Energy Regulator of South Africa (2023), Registered Generation Facilities (06/11/2023)
The increase in private generation projects may soon be equally aided by a new
regulation that allows for the wheeling of power from private projects to multiple
customers via power purchase agreements (PPAs). This will be further enabled
through the development of a new digital platform by Eskom that can circumvent
structural constraints around billing and allow for the wheeling of power from
private generators to direct offtakers at the distribution level. The so-called Virtual
Wheeling Platform has recently passed from concept to implementation as
Vodacom, the largest telecommunications provider in South Africa, signed an
agreement with Eskom whereby they will be able to purchase power from
renewable energy projects directly to power their operations through the platform.
Up until now, private projects for wheeling have been relatively slow to reach
financial closure, and so the speed at which they can contribute to the generation
mix may be quite limited.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
20
15
10
-5
- 10
- 15
- 20
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
South Africa Egypt Algeria Morocco
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources. The figures for 2024-2026 are
forecast values.
Egypt
Since 2018, the Egyptian government has taken significant steps to support the
electricity sector, attract foreign investments and expand the infrastructure for
electricity transmission and distribution. As a result, the sector has become more
competitive, with numerous international companies competing for market share
and substantially raised investment in the country.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Launched in 2023, the Red Sea Wind Energy project, supported by the European
Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), will contribute to Egypt’s
green transition with the development of a 500 MW onshore wind farm in the Gulf
of Suez region.
Algeria
Algeria's installed power power capacity is currently around 25 GW. The power
mix is heavily dominated by natural gas, representing 99% of generation in 2023.
The government is taking steps to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy
sources to meet its target of 22 GW of renewables by 2030. Following a tender
launched in December 2021 for 1 GW solar PV that did not result in any contracts,
in August 2023 the government issued a new tender aiming for a total solar PV
capacity of 2 000 MW. Of over 100 bids, 73 from both international and local
applicants were accepted as meeting the requirements. Two additional tenders
took place in the following months, the first for 1 GW – reopening the original
tender from 2021 – and a second for 3 GW.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
However, by the end of 2023 no winners had been announced nor private
contracts signed for any of the tenders. In the absence of a late-stage
development project pipeline, the forecast is conservative regarding the amount
of utility-scale projects that will be commissioned by 2026 and therefore we expect
gas will continue to account for the majority of generation (99%). This would result
in power sector emissions growth of around 4.5% CAGR during 2024-2026 amid
increasing power demand.
Morocco
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Additionally, in August 2023, following the successful call for tender for the
construction of a 400 MW solar PV plant with two hours of battery storage, a new
call for tender was issued for an additional 400 MW solar PV plant with one hour
of battery storage. This highlights not only the acceleration towards the power
capacity target but also in flexibility to support the integration of these new
resources. This is equally demonstrated by the recent MoU concluded between
Morocco and China's telecommunications company Huawei, with the aim of
harnessing innovative electricity storage technologies for the system integration
of renewable generation. Morocco also adopted legislation in October 2023 that,
when implemented into its regulatory framework, will both permit and encourage
the broader deployment of decentralised generation.
While the focus of growth on the supply-side has been in renewables, Morocco
also signed an LNG supply agreement with Shell for 0.5 bcm of LNG until 2035,
which the METSD has stated would be in line with its decarbonisation goals. This
would look to replace the loss of gas supply from Algeria.
Nigeria
The country’s largest thermal power plant was announced, a 1 900 MW expansion
of Egbin Power Plc (commercial operation by 2025). The 1 350 MW gas-fired
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Nigeria Kenya Senegal
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Other non-renewables includes oil, waste and other non-renewable energy sources. The figures for 2024-2026 are
forecast values.
Natural gas accounted for around 75% of electricity generated on the main grid in
2023. Natural gas is expected to continue to play an important role in energy
supply and grid stabilisation for Nigeria’s power sector until 2030, and decline by
2050, according to the country’s Energy Transition Plan (ETP).
Renewables are also forecast to increase over the 2024-2026 period, at a CAGR
of around 8%, and a positive spillover in terms of GHG emission reduction (-1.8%).
Hydropower accounts for most of the renewables generation during 2024-2026,
largely due to the completion of the Zungeru project, with an estimated generation
of 2.6 TWh per year. Hydropower is forecast to rise further in the future, thanks to
the completion of the 1 650 MW Makurdi Hydropower Plant.
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Solar PV is expected to grow rapidly, with an average rate of above 50% per year
over the next three years, although remaining at around 1% of generation in 2025.
The off-grid space (including mini-grids, solar home systems and solar lights)
represents a significant portion of solar PV electricity supply in the country, which
is estimated to have reached 93 MW of installed capacity in 2021, and could drive
much of the growth in the coming years. In May 2023, President Bola Tinubu
announced the end of Nigeria’s fossil fuel subsidies. This decision could jump-
start the use of solar-based solutions to replace expensive diesel generators.
The Nigerian Rural Electrification Agency (REA) is responsible for promoting and
co-ordinating rural electrification programmes and has implemented the
Energizing Economies Initiative, which aims to support the rapid deployment of
off-grid electricity solutions in economic clusters through private sector
developers. Strong growth of off-grid solutions in Nigeria is the driver of a broader
growth trend in West Africa.
In June 2023, Nigeria adopted a new Electricity Act 2023, which aims to provide
a comprehensive legal and institutional framework for a privatised contract and
rule-based competitive electricity market, with a view to attracting private sector
investments across the power sector. While the act strengthens the role of
regulatory bodies, as it introduces consumer protection measures and provides
for a transparent tariff-setting process, it also opens up the possibility of multiple
licensing regimes by enabling regulation at state level. Although regulation at the
federal level remains the rule where no state regulation is specified, careful
co-ordination and streamlining of regulatory approaches across states would be
required to minimise the uncertainty of different regimes.
Other Africa
In Kenya, over 700 000 new customers were connected to the national grid in
2022 and 75% of the population had access to electricity (both national grid and
off-grid solutions), a substantial growth compared to 47% in 2015. Electricity
demand is estimated to have increased by around 4.5% in 2023, and we expect
annual demand growth of 5.7% on average from 2024 to 2026. Kenya has a total
installed capacity of about 3.3 GW and generated about 13 TWh, of which more
than 90% was from renewable sources. The Kenyan government has an ambition
of reaching a 100% share of renewables in electricity generation by 2030.
We estimate that in 2023 more than 44% of generation in Kenya came from
geothermal, with the remainder of renewables coming mainly from hydropower
and wind. Kenya’s Lake Turkana Wind Farm is Africa’s largest, with 365 turbines
at 850 kWh capacity each. We anticipate the country’s renewable generation to
grow by around 7% per year in 2024-2026. The largest growth is anticipated in PV
and wind, with 25% and 13% annual average growth, respectively. The
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Electricity 2024 Regional focus
Analysis and forecast to 2026
The Kenyan grid is interconnected with the Ethiopian grid through a 1 058 km line
energised in 2023. The Kenya Power and Lighting Company (KPLC) started
importing electricity at lower tariffs last year under a 27-year power-sharing
agreement signed by the two governments. Further regional interconnections will
be achieved through an interconnector with Tanzania, which is under construction,
and a second line with Uganda, which is under implementation. These projects
will eventually facilitate the creation of a regional power market.
A new electricity code (Law no. 2021-31) approved in 2021 is paving the way for
the unbundling of the power sector. Under this new framework, the government of
Senegal is developing an Integrated Low-Cost Plan (PIMC) to enhance planning
in the sector. In 2023, Senegal entered a Just Energy Transition Partnership
(JETP) with France, Germany, the European Union, the United Kingdom and
Canada. Under the JETP, the international partners are undertaking to mobilise
up to EUR 2.5 billion to support the country in accelerating clean energy
deployment for sustainable development. Senegal increased its renewable energy
targets to 40% of installed capacity by 2030.
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Electricity 2024 Annexes
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Annexes
Summary tables
Regional breakdown of electricity demand, 2021-2026
Growth Growth CAAGR 2024-
rate rate 2026
TWh 2021 2022 2023 2026
2021- 2022-
2022 2023
Africa 753 765 780 887 1.6% 1.9% 4.4%
of which
4 170 4 277 4 208 4 404 2.6% -1.6% 1.5%
United States
of which
2 736 2 651 2 568 2 749 -3.1% -3.2% 2.3%
European Union
Notes: Data for 2023 are preliminary; 2024-2026 are forecasts. Differences in totals are due to rounding. CAAGR =
Compounded average annual growth rate. For the CAAGR 2024-2026 reported, end of 2023 data is taken as base year for
the calculation. For the entire period European Union data is for the 27 member states.
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Electricity 2024 Annexes
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Other non-
852 857 782 705 0.6% -8.8% -3.4%
renewables
Other non-
203 198 155 126 -2.2% -21.9% -6.7%
renewables
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Electricity 2024 Annexes
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Other non-
206 205 200 179 -0.4% -2.8% -3.6%
renewables
Other non-
86 95 89 67 10.1% -6.3% -9.1%
renewables
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Electricity 2024 Annexes
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Other non-
18 12 12 14 -33.6% -0.7% 5.3%
renewables
Other non-
284 278 261 256 -1.8% -6.1% -0.7%
renewables
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Electricity 2024 Annexes
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Other non-
56 69 66 63 22.7% -4.4% -1.2%
renewables
Growth Growth
rate rate CAAGR 2023-
Mt CO2 2021 2022 2023 2026
2021- 2022- 2026
2022 2023
Total emissions 473 479 471 493 1.3% -1.6% 1.5%
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Electricity 2024 Annexes
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Central and South America – Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa
Rica, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala,
Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname,
Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela and other Latin American countries
and territories.5
PAGE | 164
Electricity 2024 Annexes
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Middle East – Bahrain, Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Israel8, Jordan, Kuwait,
Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syrian Arab Republic, United Arab
Emirates and Yemen.
1
Individual data are not available and are estimated in aggregate for: Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cape Verde, Central African
Republic, Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali,
Mauritania, Reunion, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Eswatini and Uganda.
2
Including Hong Kong.
3
Individual data are not available and are estimated in aggregate for: Afghanistan, Bhutan, Macau (China), Maldives and
Timor-Leste.
4
Individual data are not available and are estimated in aggregate for: Afghanistan, Bhutan, Cook Islands, Fiji, French
Polynesia, Kiribati, Macau (China), Maldives, New Caledonia, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-
Leste, Tonga and Vanuatu.
5
Individual data are not available and are estimated in aggregate for: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas,
Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Dominica, Falkland Islands (Malvinas), Grenada,
Guyana, Montserrat, Saba, Saint Eustatius, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Saint Vincent and
the Grenadines, Sint Maarten, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
6
Note by the Republic of Türkiye
The information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no
single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Türkiye recognises the Turkish
Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United
Nations, Türkiye shall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”.
Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European Union The Republic of Cyprus is
recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Türkiye. The information in this document
relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.
7
The designation is without prejudice to positions on status and is in line with the United Nations Security Council Resolution
1244/99 and the Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice on Kosovo’s declaration of Independence.
8
The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such
data by the OECD and/or the IEA is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli
settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.
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Electricity 2024 Annexes
Analysis and forecast to 2026
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Electricity 2024 Annexes
Analysis and forecast to 2026
I EA. CC BY 4.0.
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Electricity 2024 Annexes
Analysis and forecast to 2026
Units of measure
bbl barrel
bbl/d barrels per day
bcm billion cubic metres
bcm/yr billion cubic metres per year
cm/s centimetres per second
g CO2 gramme of carbon dioxide
g CO2/KWh grammes of carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour
GJ gigajoule
Gt/yr gigatonnes per year
GW gigawatt
kt kilo tonnes
MW megawatt
MWh megawatt-hour
Mt million tonnes
Mt CO2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide
Mt CO2/yr million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year
GW gigawatt
GWh gigawatt hour
TWh terawatt-hour
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International Energy Agency (IEA)
This work reflects the views of the IEA Secretariat but does not
necessarily reflect those of the IEA’s individual member countries or of
any particular funder or collaborator. The work does not constitute
professional advice on any specific issue or situation. The IEA makes
no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect of the
work’s contents (including its completeness or accuracy) and shall not
be responsible for any use of, or reliance on, the work.
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the
status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of
international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,
city or area.
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International Energy Agency
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