Seasonal Pro Weather Index

Matthew Howard

Patrick Minda

Ben Tomfohrde

Eric Zack

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 Table of Contents

Introduction……3
Our Product & Our Company…..3
Meteorological Figures & Facts…….6
Climate Change………………...18
Business Statistics………………22
Tailed Forecast Delivered By Email…28
Consulting Services Available……….28
The CWCC “Seasonal Pro” Weather Index... 29
Conclusion………….33
Contract………..34

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Introduction:
The Champion Weather Consulting Company (CWCC) team is composed of a group of
experienced professionals who possess educational and experiential credentials to provide
Home Depot with a superior weather index product to maximize your profits. We hold
Meteorology and Atmospheric Science degrees from the prestigious Pennsylvania State
University and have diverse backgrounds working in the forecasting industry. We chose the
name Champion for our firm because we believe in being the best at serving our clients. Our film
remains ahead of our rivals in the weather forecasting and consulting industry by using the most
up to date technology and working to continuously improve our accuracy through continued
education and professional development of our staff.

Matthew Howard is the manager of CWCC alongside three co-workers and capitalizes on
his experience leading shifts at Campus Weather Service. Ben Tomfohrde is the model developer
for our Seasonal Pro Index, which is critical to the success of our product. His experience
creating accurate forecasts for large-scale Hollywood film productions provides the perfect
background to create a weather index to meet Home Depot’s needs. Patrick Minda is the
business leader of the group; he plays a critical role in saving Home Depot money by
understanding what data is needed and the timeframes necessary to make profitable decisions.
Eric Zack is the meteorological expert regarding the climate and weather patterns across over
2000 Home Depot locations throughout the United States.

Our Product & Our Company:

At CWCC, we aim to provide Home Depot with the most up-to-date forecasting and
climate data. We incorporate not just our weather knowledge, but also analyze and utilize your
business data. Not only can we maximize Home Depot’s profits, but CWCC can also save Home
Depot money by eliminating unnecessary expenses due to unforeseen weather conditions. We
devised a seasonal index named Seasonal Pro to maintain and enhance Home Depot’s position
as the world’s largest home improvement store. Seasonal Pro has an index for winter, spring,
summer, and fall! This will make selling home improvement products more cost-efficient and
will satisfy customer needs. By implementing this product, we aim for Home Depot to achieve
its highest store and consumer ratings. Our team wants to go above and beyond to keep Home
Depot the #1 home improvement business in the country.

Through Seasonal Pro, CWCC considered all factors relating to extreme weather. We
want to ensure consumers receive satisfaction and remain loyal through Home Depot’s purchase
of our weather index and consulting products. While Home Depot faces competition from other
businesses, through our product Seasonal Pro, Home Depot will thrive. Extreme weather and
climate issues will not stop Home Depot from selling the most home improvement products in
the world. We also aim to cover all Home Depot locations, including those with lower
populations, so every site can prepare and rely on Seasonal Pro for their needs.

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 An issue many corporations face nationwide is countering the effect of changing climates
on business. Climate change has had a worldwide impact over the past 100 years, causing
extreme temperatures and extreme precipitation. In monitoring these climates, it is important
to focus on the inventory of how many products of a certain kind need to be manufactured and
distributed to local Home Depot stores. Various locations experience heavier effects of climate
change, which are highly considered for the index. With more extreme storms facing the nation,
Home Depot must prepare to supply stores earlier so customers can leave feeling satisfied, so
they do not feel the need to shop from competitors.

Home Depot owns over 2,000 stores in the United States with over 400,000 employees.
1
Though these statistics seem promising, Home Depot stores face competition with other home
improvement businesses, such as Lowe’s and Harbor Freight. Using Lowe’s 10K report, they
have 1,738 stores and over 125,000 part-time employees in the United States. 2 This makes it a
competitor with a mission and goals similar to Home Depot. Harbor Freight is another home
improvement company that provides for over 1400 different locations. 3 With these Home Depot
competitors alone, it can face trouble as many people will go to various stores or shop online to
buy their home improvement products.

Though Home Depot faces competition with other home improvement stores, the net
sales really tell the story. Lowe’s 2022 sales totaled $97.045 billion. 4 Home Depot’s total sales
are $157.403 billion, going unmatched against any home improvement company in the country.
5

Our product saves Home Depot money, as weather is one of the most important factors
in the business. The supply chain and consumer purchasing is critical because Home Depot
must have its products immediately available to meet customer demand. If products are not
readily available for purchase and delivery when needed, the customer may leave and become
loyal to a competitor. Using forecasts to be prepared is crucial in maintaining a supply chain,
our product can assist with that and save Home Depot money.

Seasonal Pro will enhance Home Depot’s business, using a general index based on the
seasons and weather. This index will help with the supply chain aspects so customers can buy
products and consumers find no shelf spaces empty due to sell outs of products that relate to
weather, seasons, or climate. CWCC is our business name and our #1 goal is that we want Home
Depot to sell the most. Making decisions while competing with other home improvement
companies is critical and vital to this business's success. We will assist Home Depot and respond
1 Home Depot’s 2022 Form 10-K Pages 6 & 23

2 Lowe’s 2022 Form 10-K Page 17

3 “Harbor Freight Store Directory.” Store Directory - Harbor Freight Tools. Accessed February 19, 2024.
http://www.harborfreight.com/storelocator/store-directory.

4 Lowe’s 2022 Form 10-K Page 38

5 Home Depot’s 2022 Form 10-K Page 27

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to rapid weather changes, making those decisions easier to make. With climate change
becoming an increasing issue, we will respond to global shifts in the climate and will monitor
those trends.

Our weather index accounts for meteorological seasons, local climatology, average
temperature by the month and day, maximum and minimum temperatures by month, average
precipitation for a time frame, elevation, and based on the climatological patterns of El Niño and
La Niña. Weather can impact Home Depot's sales, as many people like to shop there based on
their seasonal needs. As weather experts, we understand that not everyone faces the full effect of
four seasons in the United States. We will ensure that Home Depot sells efficient products for
these seasons per location. While there are many factors we consider when making the index,
temperature and precipitation were ones we prioritized. Temperature is a significant factor, as
many home improvement projects cannot happen in low temperatures. Similarly, precipitation
can also hinder many types of improvement projects.

For our seasonal index, we went off of meteorological seasons. For winter, we covered
months from December to February. Spring is from March to May. Meteorological summer is
from June to August. The fall index is responsible for September to November. We used
meteorological seasons in these indices because they are more consistent than astronomical
seasons in aspects of temperatures and weather patterns. It also allows the meteorological data
to line up with monthly business reports. Our team used average temperature and amount/type
of precipitation in monthly data. This data would allow for a rough estimation of what these four
seasons would look like all across the country. Some useful sources include ACIS, National Snow
Analysis, NCDC, Sunrise/Sunset Data, Local Climate Summaries, COOP Data, and Weather
Observations.

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Meteorological Figures & Facts:

Figure 1: Advancements in Weather Forecasting 6

Our business has meteorological experts who study the current weather patterns. The x-
axis represents the years from 1975 to 2010, and the y-axis represents the accuracy percentage.
For example, D+3 on the right side of the y-axis indicates forecast accuracy for three days or 72
hours. It is also significant to note the model accuracy improvements after 2000 since the
incorporation of satellites. Forecasting equipment and techniques have improved dramatically
in terms of accuracy and precision. Long-range forecasts definitely notice the most dramatic
improvement from around 33% in 2000 to 45% around 2010. As models and technology
continue to advance and improve, it will allow our company to use Seasonal Pro efficiently and
provide the most accurate statistics. Though 2020 is not present in this graphic, our team
assumed that models are still improving based on consistent trends. 3-day forecasts from 1981
are 80% accurate, while in 2010, they are 45% reliable for 10-day forecasts. Not only have the
models improved, but there has been less variance in the data over time.

6 Hrisko, Joshua. Researcher Gate. Accessed February 19, 2024.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Classification-accuracy-with-varying-time-window-of-weather-
data-Each-cell-shows-the_fig2_335848662.

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Figure 2: National Hurricane Center Error Trends Image 7
In addition to growing confidence with computer modeling, hurricane forecasting has
improved dramatically throughout many different lead times to the storm. The x-axis represents
the years from 1990 - 2016, while the y-axis shows the forecast error in miles. 120-hour forecasts
have improved the most, with an average storm track variance of 200 miles. Even though our
weather index provides seasonal products, we do respond to increasingly dangerous situations
such as tropical cyclones. CWCC's meteorological experts will continue to study these yearly
trends, as changes are still in store with improving technology and satellites.

7 “Weather Underground.” Weather Underground. Accessed February 19, 2024.

http://www.wunderground.com/cat6/nhc-track-forecasts-best-ever-2017-no-improvement-intensity-
forecasts.

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Figure 3: Winter Storm Temperature Model Error Trends 8
Winter storm forecast temperature trends have improved dramatically in the past 40 to
50 years. The x-axis indicates the years from 1975-2015, while the y-axis represents the error in
degrees Fahrenheit. The right side of the axis shows how many days the forecast is. As indicated
by this figure, there was a large improvement in longer-range forecasts for winter storm
temperatures. All aspects of the forecast still improved even up to the one-day forecast.

8 Borenstein, Seth. “Science Says: Weather Forecasts Improve, under the Radar.” Colorado Springs
Gazette, March 16, 2019. https://gazette.com/weather/science-says-weather-forecasts-improve-under-
the-radar/article_f5f172e3-b792-5c5d-8d0c-dff2f0e199c1.html.

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Figure 4: El Nino Patterns 9
El Nino is a weather pattern that brings air from the Pacific, representing a zonal pattern with
storm systems moving more from west to east. Above-average precipitation is likely across the
southern regions, and above-average temperatures are likely for the Northwest and North
Central regions of the United States. This occurs when sea temperatures in the Central and
Tropical Pacific are above average, affecting regional weather patterns.

9 US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. What are El Nino
and La Nina?, March 26, 2009. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html.

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Figure 5: La Nina Patterns 10
La Nina occurs when temperatures are lower than average in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
The polar jet stream becomes more active in northern regions of the United States. Due to this
pattern, the Southeast US experiences drier conditions on average when these events occur.
Temperatures also are usually above average as well in these regions. Below-average
temperatures are likely across portions of the North Central and Northwest parts of the country.

10 US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. What are El Nino
and La Nina?, March 26, 2009. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html.

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Figure 6: Annual Average Temperature: United States 11
This map displays the United States' average temperatures, with blue representing the
lowest temperatures and red as the highest. The northern US and areas in the Rocky Mountains
experience the lowest average temperatures year-round. The highest temperatures are in the
southern tip of the United States, in addition to the desert in the Southwest. Since there is a
wide variety of temperatures, product demand will differ in certain states and counties.
Temperatures played a high factor in our weather index, so it was definitely significant to
consider this for Home Depot.

Sample figures for the United States from 1991-2020 were used in developing the index,
especially because of the most up-to-date trends.

11 NOAA. Accessed February 19, 2024. https://www.climate.gov/data/Temperature--Monthly--Average-

Mean-for-1991-2020--CONUS/01-small/.

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Figure 7: Average temperatures of April 1991-2020 12
Temperatures gradually increase for the month of April as spring starts. These
temperature highs and lows are over similar areas of the country, as indicated by the yearly
average temperature figure. Due to this variance, it was heavily weighted for the spring season
on our index. It was not as heavily indicated during the winter and summer as conditions do not
change as rapidly for most locations. These maps were incorporated, as temperatures played
more of a significant factor for the Seasonal Pro Index. It is a critical factor for many home
improvement projects to take place.

12 NOAA. Accessed February 19, 2024. www.climate.gov/data/Temperature--Monthly--Average-Mean-

for-1991-2020--CONUS/01-small/Temperature--Monthly--Average-Mean-for-1991-2020--CONUS--
0000-04-00--small.png. .

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Figure 8: Average temperatures of October 1991-2020 13
Temperatures decrease in many places compared to summer out ahead of the autumn
season, with temperature peaks staying fairly consistent. A wider variability in temperatures is
also noted, and is a big part of the index.

13 NOAA. Accessed February 19, 2024. www.climate.gov/data/Temperature--Monthly--Average-Mean-

for-1991-2020--CONUS/01-small/Temperature--Monthly--Average-Mean-for-1991-2020--CONUS--
0000-10-00--small.png. .

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Figure 9: Average Precipitation for January (1991-2020 average) 14
This map, courtesy of NOAA, shows average precipitation across the United States.
Highest precipitation totals are in western portions of the United States, closest to the Rocky
and Sierra Nevada mountains. The southeast is also another place that receives heavier
precipitation. These areas will be focused highly for precipitation using our Seasonal Pro Index.

14 NOAA. Accessed February 19, 2024. www.climate.gov/data/Precipitation--Monthly--Average-for-

1991-2020--CONUS/01-small/Precipitation--Monthly--Average-for-1991-2020--CONUS--0000-01-00--
small.png. .

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Figure 10: Average Precipitation for July (1991-2020) 15
Precipitation patterns are notably different in July. There is no significant precipitation in
the northwest. However, there is much more precipitation due to the increased moisture and
humidity in the southeast.

15 NOAA. Accessed February 19, 2024. www.climate.gov/data/Precipitation--Monthly--Average-for-

1991-2020--CONUS/01-small/Precipitation--Monthly--Average-for-1991-2020--CONUS--0000-07-00--
small.png. .

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Figure 11: Average Annual Snowfall Map: United States 16
Highest snowfall totals occur in the highest elevations and the northern portions of the
United States. Although this is an average snowfall map, snowfall totals vary heavily in certain
locations and regions during different years. Snowfall was highly considered in the Seasonal Pro
Index for the winter.

Figure 12: Average Median Snowfall

Earliest snowfall dates in the United States are across northern and mountainous
regions, while later snowfall occurs further south. These dates were also taken into account into
our index, as locations and elevation vary heavily with snowfall amounts.

16 “US Annual Snowfall Map.” NYSkiBlog, December 6, 2023. https://nyskiblog.com/directory/weather-

data/us/annual-snowfall-map/.

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Figure 13: Relative Humidity 17
Humidity is a significant factor to consider for Home Depot. Humidity is the measure of
the amount of water vapor in the air. This can notably make the air feel more humid and
uncomfortable. Customers may be less inclined to purchase materials or use those materials
outdoors when it is muggy. It can also lead to damage to electronic equipment in extreme
circumstances.

Climate Change:
Climate change has been a growing issue over the past few decades. The potential effects
of climate change are far-reaching and impactful, especially for large businesses. One such
example is the precipitation map featured in Figure 7. A precipitation increase can impact a
business such as Home Depot in many ways, as flooding, winds, tornadoes, snowstorms, and
more weather events can disrupt a business.. Acquisition and transportation of goods is an
impact as more extreme weather events occur and impact transport routes, sourcing of
materials, and shift the market as more potential damage accrues. With these impacts in mind,
it is critical for Home Depot to be critically prepared and have a backup plan. There can be many
sources of damage from a single meteorological event, so employing tools such as the Seasonal
Pro will help with this preparation. We accounted for climatology as part of our index as the
weather changes yearly. Precipitation and temperatures increased over the past 30 years as an

17 United States yearly [annual] and monthly mean relative humidity. Accessed February 19, 2024.
https://eldoradoweather.com/climate/US%20Climate%20Maps/Lower%2048%20States/Other
%20Elements/Mean%20Relative%20Humidity/Gallery/mean-relative-humidity.html.

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effect of the changing climate. Climate change is due to the greenhouse effect that absorbs CO2
into the atmosphere by human activity.
How does climate change affect the business? It affects the demand and supply of
specific home improvement products. This is a significant issue that has affected the current
state of the business and will affect the future as well. It has been stated by the Home Depot
corporations that they “strive to hold our suppliers and ourselves accountable to improve the
environmental impact of our supply chain." They also want to conserve natural resources,
manufacture in an environmentally friendly way, and encourage their customers to commit to
sustainable practices. 18

18 The Home Depot and the environment. Accessed February 19, 2024.
https://corporate.homedepot.com/sites/default/files/image_gallery/The Home Depot and the
Environment 2018.pdf.

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Figure 14: Change of Global Average Temperature
The average global temperature has been on the rise for the past few decades. A higher
temperature can mean a whole lot on a national and global scale, and cause a variety of
detrimental effects on the world that are capable of affecting businesses. High temperatures can
change ecosystems and affect supply, causing flooding via more water being in the air leading to
extreme rainfall, drinking water, and inland water scarcity, as well as wildfires and many other
events. Such events are capable of impacting business but are foreseeable. Our index can assist
with this matter, keeping your business prepared for our changing world.

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Figure 15: Average Precipitation Across United States 19
An increase in precipitation trends over the last 30 years is not a surprise for many
meteorological experts studying this phenomenon. The average annual precipitation has
increased drastically in the Central and Eastern United States due to more extreme weather
events. It can result in more flooding and damage. In the Western United States, precipitation
has trended drier overall, which can lead to longer periods of droughts.

19 Bhatia, Aatish, and Nadja Popovich. “These Maps Tell the Story of Two Americas: One Parched, One
Soaked.” The New York Times, August 24, 2021.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/08/24/climate/warmer-wetter-world.html.

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Business Statistics:

Figure 16: Home Depot Sales Per Retail Square Foot (Quarterly) 20
This graph shows the Home Depot Sales per square foot of retail. Each number is
representative of four different quarters. Quarter 1 runs through February through April. All
other quarters take place for three months following each quarter. Consistently, during the last
years it was busiest during the second quarter. This timeframe runs through the second half of
spring and most of summer. On average, it is the least busy during Quarter 4, during the winter
months of December through February. Seasonal Pro will respond to Home Depots needs using
these average statistics over the past years.

20 Shaikh, Niloofer. “The Home Depot in Charts: Comparable Sales Continue to Fall amid Shifting
Consumer Trends.” Seeking Alpha, November 14, 2023. https://seekingalpha.com/news/4036111-the-
home-depot-in-charts.

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Figure 17: Home Depot Top Selling Products (FourWeekMBA) 21
As noted in the previous figure, most of Home Depot's sales are in the late spring and
summer. Specifically, gardening is the highest-selling category next to appliances. Gardening
occurs during the late spring and summer in many locations that experience lower temperature
averages. Gardening can be an all-year-round activity in places with higher temperatures.
Appliances, electrical products, lumber, and plumbing are all the other top-selling categories
that don't vary with season quite as much.

The Home Depot, Inc. Financial Summary (figures in dollars) Column1 Column2

21 /entity/gennaro-Cuofano. “Home Depot Top Selling Categories.” FourWeekMBA, June 16, 2023.
https://fourweekmba.com/home-depot-top-selling-categories/.

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FY 2022 FIGURES, 10-K United States Per Store

Total Sales $136,049,879,800 $67,787,683

Total Customer Visits 1,505,643,372 750,196

Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) $90,431,686,980 $45,058,140

COGS: Shipping $4,521,584,349 $2,252,907

Gross Profit $45,618,194,810 $22,729,544

Operating Expenses(OE): Total $24,840,297,810 $12,376,830

OE: Part-Time Labor $7,164,911,727 $3,569,961

OE: Utilities $432,171,324 $215,332

OE: Advertising $937,810,890 $467,270

Inventory Value $21,509,992,400 $10,717,485

Inventory: Loss, Obsolete $33,709,572 $16,796

Savings

a. Potential Shipping Savings $22,607,931.78 $11,264.54

b. Potential Labor Savings $71,649,117.27 $35,699.61

c. Potential Utility Savings $2,160,856.62 $1,076.66

d. Potential Advertising Savings $93,781,008.72 $46,726.96

e. Potential Inventory Savings $168,547.86 $83.98

+++ +++ +++

TOTAL POTENTIAL SAVINGS $190,367,442.20 $94,851.74

Revenue

Potential Increase in Sales $13,605,453 $6,779

f. Potential Increase, Net Income $1,478,456.55 $736.65

TOTAL POTENTIAL SAVINGS $190,367,442.20 $94,841.74

NET INCOME INCREASE $1,478,456.55 $736.65

+++ +++ +++

INCREASED PROFIT POTENTIAL $191,845,898.80 $95,578.39

Figure 18: A 2022 financial summary of The Home Depot Inc.’s U.S. sales and per store sales
for the entire company. It shows the amount of business that they did in 2022 and the potential
amount of money that our company can save them. Store savings will decrease costs by 10%,
and sales increase by 0.01%. 22

Lowes Companies, Inc. Financial Summary(figures in dollars) Column1 Column2

22 Home Depot’s 10K Form Pages 6, 23, 27, 37, 46

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FY 2022 FIGURES, 10-K Entire Company Per Store

Total Sales $97.059 billion $55,845,224.40

Total Customer Visits N/A N/A

Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) $64.802 billion $37,285,385.50

COGS: Shipping $3,240,100,000 $1,864,269.28

Gross Profit $32.257 billion $18,559,838.90

Operating Expenses(OE): Total $22.098 billion $12,714,614.50

OE: Part-Time Labor $2,437,500,000 $1,402,474.11

OE: Utilities $389,312,000 $224,000

OE: Advertising $869,000,000 $500,000

Inventory Value $18.532 billion $10,662,830.84

Inventory: Loss, Obsolete $29,000,000 $16,685.85

Savings

a. Potential Shipping Savings $16,200,500 $9,321.35

b. Potential Labor Savings $24,375,000 $14,024.74

c. Potential Utility Savings $1,946,560 $1,120

d. Potential Advertising Savings $86,900,000 $50,000

e. Potential Inventory Savings $145,000 $83.43

+++ +++ +++

TOTAL POTENTIAL SAVINGS $129,567,060 $74,549.52

Revenue

Potential Increase in Sales $9,705,900 $5,584.52

f. Potential Increase, Net Income $643,700 $370.35

TOTAL POTENTIAL SAVINGS $129,567,060 $74,549.52

NET INCOME INCREASE $643,700 $370.35

+++ +++ +++

INCREASED PROFIT POTENTIAL $130,210,760 $74,919.87

Figure 19: A 2022 financial summary of Lowe’s Companies, Inc. It shows an in depth analysis
of the business that they did in 2022 and the potential amount of money our company can save
them. 23

23 Lowe’s 2022 10K Form Pages 16, 24, 38, 39

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Figure 20: An image taken from the 2022 Home Depot 10-k form. It shows the amount of
money and percentage of the net sales for different categories of products. 24

Our business will use our index to lead decisions about the likelihood of the number of
sales that occur throughout each season that coordinates with meteorological winter. This index
will help dictate each quarter of Home Depot’s fiscal year and will predict the amount of money
Home Depot will make during each quarter. We have studied various regions throughout the
United States to determine how to scale our index. Using our weather index map, we included
all areas of the United States. Home Depot will use the index to help increase sales.

During winter, production includes snow shovels, snow plows, ice scrapers, and salt
spreaders. Consumers expect to find items such as gardening supplies, lawn care, and outdoor
painting and cleaning supplies in the spring. Summer is a time for Home Depot shoppers to
purchase products to mow and maintain lawns, restain decks, and much more. Many outdoor
projects requiring Home Depot products may be underway during summer. Home Depot
customers might also seek to add a ceiling fan to make their home more comfortable or add a
new grill to enhance their outdoor space. Finally, Autumn is a perfect time for consumers to
finish summer projects and to prepare by stocking up on supplies for winter weather. As big
shopping days like Black Friday occur, Home Depot does not see as many people in the fall as
they see their peak business in the spring. Because of this, the company moved its Black Friday
sales in the spring.

All seasons present Home Depot customers with opportunities to use Home Depot’s
decor products to improve the interior of their homes by painting or changing flooring,

24 Home Depot’s 2022 10K Form Page 49

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carpeting, or fixtures. Interior home products are sold year-round, regarding furniture and even
kitchen appliances. These items are usually not affected to a great degree by seasonality.
However, some products, such as waterproof vinyl flooring to replace damaged carpet might
have huge spikes in sales due to storms and flooding.

Figure 21: Home Improvement & Storm Damage 25

Home improvement stores are very important when it comes to storm damage.
Furniture, fence posts, roofs, power, and just about any object can be destroyed by the power of
wind or flooding waters. We aim to provide Home Depot, so that many can recover if one
experiences damage from a natural disaster or storm.

Finally, It is also important to note that not every store location experiences these four
distinct seasons, due to geographic variations in the climate. Our product mainly addresses
seasonal products that need to be more heavily stocked and readily available at certain times of
the year and stocked heavily for certain events such as shovels in winter and specifically before a
storm arrives.

Non-meteorological data is really important as these products are transported from

distribution centers all across the country, serving approximately 2000 stores in the United
States. Specifically, there are around 90 Home Depot distribution centers. 26 The impact of labor
resources throughout these distribution centers is essential to get these products shipped to the

25 “10 Steps to Protect Your Home from Storm Damage.” Reinbrecht Homes, January 26, 2023.
https://www.reinbrechthomes.com/blog/10-steps-to-protect-your-home-from-storm-damage/.

26
local Home Depot stores to meet customers’ needs. If products are not created at a good speed,
then the supply chain can be affected at an impactful rate.

Our product delivers critical weather data, disseminated through emails sent every
weekend. These will discuss the current weather patterns and forecasted conditions for each
region during every season. This allows Home Depot to have the products available to meet
customer demand seasonally. This will ensure Home Depot's supply chain is operating in such a
way that products arrive when needed for customer demand. It also helps with labor and other
issues described previously.

Tailored Forecasts Delivered by Email

A personal forecaster will reach out individually via email to client contacts designated
by Home Depot and present them with a map that looks similar to the one pictured. The map
will be accompanied by a summary write-up report, using our comprehensive weather index
detailing the business impacts of expected conditions shown on the map. CWCC Professionals
will take even the most complex meteorological data and create easy-to-understand, actionable
reports for recipients at Home Depot. These emailed documents will help managers quickly
make important business decisions to increase Home Depots profitability.

We have chosen to report our Seasonal Pro Weather Index findings to Home Depot via
email for several reasons. We found email offers the speed and instantaneous delivery of the
critical information our clients require to make critical decisions. Additionally, email offers ease
of access from multiple devices for the Home Depot recipient, whether the decision maker is at a
desk, in a meeting, or out on the floor during business operations. Email offers Home Depot
personnel the option of forwarding the report, allowing multiple employees to have timely
access to it and provide comments to make the best use of the Seasonal Pro Weather Index
reports. Based on our experience in the industry, CWCC professionals understand the types of
questions that may arise when our clients receive our reporting. Therefore, we have chosen real-
time “on-call” consulting services as the perfect supplement to these reports.

Consulting Services Available

At CWCC, we anticipate Home Depot's need for additional information and the ability to
ask questions about our comprehensive reports. When Home Depot personnel require tailored
information and real-time decision-making support, an “on-call” AMS Certified Consulting
Meteorologist (CCM) will be available to discuss the specific local impacts. CCM is the highest
bar in our industry set by the prestigious American Meteorological Society (AMS). Choosing
CWCC for your weather preparedness needs ensures you receive advice from meteorologists
who have met “the highest standards of technical competence, character, and experience for
certified consultants who provide advice in meteorology,” according to the AMS.
Consulting be offered free of charge during regular business hours for the first 4 hours of
on-call consulting. Additional hours are priced at $219 per hour, billed in 15-minute increments.

26 Because every square foot counts | The Home Depot. Accessed February 19, 2024.
https://corporate.homedepot.com/page/because-every-square-foot-counts.

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This dollar amount is 1% of the hourly increase in profit potential. We get this from the fact that
we can potentially increase their profits by $21,900.22 per hour. These prices give Home Depot
the competitive edge of having access to real-time weather information to make critical
decisions in a dynamic environment that could make the difference between profitability and
loss. This also grants Home Depot the ability to make rapid decisions while other competitors
may attempt to understand the forecast.
For phone calls, there is a phone number available to quickly access CWCC’s on-call
services. This number will ring to the CWCC CCM on duty on a rotating basis. Home Depot
personnel will not be concerned with determining who to call or how to reach them. One
consulting hotline number will meet all of Home Depots weather needs with quick access to
your dedicated on-call, AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist.

Since weekend and holiday operations are essential to Home Depot, we also offer 24/7
“on call” access to one of our four highly qualified CCMs on a rotating basis priced at $328.50
per hour billed in 15-minute increments. This hourly rate is time and a half off of the hourly
increase profit potential. Home Depot stores run every day of the year, except Thanksgiving and
Christmas. Our clients have found CWCC’s “on-call” consulting services to be the perfect
supplement to these reports.

The CWCC “Seasonal Pro” Weather Index

The CWCC “Seasonal Pro” Weather Index consists of four separate indices for outdoor
weather preparedness: Winter, Spring, Summer, and Fall, with a strong emphasis on Winter
and Summer. These indices serve as forecasts of the total profit margin expected from sales
throughout Home Depot stores in the Continental United States, as well as Alaska and Hawaii
during each season. However, our indices are the most volatile in the summer and winter
months. Indices are more extreme in these seasons due to peak weather patterns that occur in
the summer and winter months which can lead to extreme temperature departures from average
throughout the year. Additionally, the most powerful storms produce a risk to life and property.
These include events such as hurricanes, tornadoes, winter storms, and wildfires occur during
these months.
The Seasonal Pro Index is based on a points scale ranging from 0-100 points regarding
sales at Home Depot. The weight of each of the different variables is added together depending
on meteorological and general variables. The meteorological variables have significantly more
weight than the general variables, however, both values are summed up and result in a 100-
point maximum on our indices. There are five ranges established between 0-100 points that
forecast the amount of profit expected in a given region. If the added weight between all the
variables is between 0-20 points, sales are expected to result in extremely poor profit margins.
Values between 20-40 points highlight sales that will be extremely low in profitability. A weight
of 40-60 points dictates a season in which profit margins are around average. Values between
60-80 points will yield sales that are above average profitwise for Home Depot. Finally, 80-100
points indicate that sales are exceptionally high and well above the average profit margin for
Home Depot.
For our winter index, the meteorological variables chosen were Temperatures (10 pts),
Precipitation (20 pts), Snowfall (30 pts), ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation, 5 pts), and
Climatology (10 pts). Snowfall was weighted as the highest variable because of its impact on

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snow removal throughout much of our northern and mountainous coverage regions, which
boosts sales of equipment that Home Depot offers. General precipitation can affect the United
States, and products are essential to protect life and property during storms across the country,
making precipitation the second highest variable. Extreme temperatures and higher average
temperatures are most critical in the winter, according to Climate Central. 27 The index also
takes into account climatology and is also weighted the exact same, using figures.
Dangerous snow, ice, flooding, and severe thunderstorms all occur during the winter,
which was taken into account when creating this winter index. We also chose general variables
to account for such as Elevation (5 pts), Tourism/Population (10 pts), and Location (10 pts).
These variables are quite important, as there is frequent travel around the holidays in winter,
such as in southern states and in mountainous regions at ski resorts that require Home Depot
equipment for preparedness. Tourism and population affect the number of sales that occur
overall throughout the winter, which was coupled together. Location was weighted the same
amount as tourism. The population variable is also crucial because depending on where one
lives in the country, the sales for a specific season can be high or low.
CWCC considered a mix of variables for the Seasonal Pro index, including meteorological
and general variables. Meteorological variables we considered for the spring index were
Temperature (30 pts), Precipitation (20 pts), Snowfall (10 pts), ENSO (5 pts), and Climatology
(15 pts). Temperatures are a critical variable, especially for outdoor painting projects and
gardening. These two activities are temperature-dependent, and this is why Home Depot sells so
many products during that season. Snowfall can continue in mountainous terrain and northern
regions of the United States, meaning snow removal will continue but the variable decreases in
weight as the seasons change. Some general variables we used include the Elevation (5 pts),
Tourism/Population (10 pts), and Location (5 pts). These are also quite essential, as the
population can determine how many people will shop at stores in-person or online from the
same area. Elevation and location are not as critical as the tourism and population variables,
which peak during spring break in southern states. Though elevation is not as important as
some factors, it cannot be discounted because of elevation-dependent storms and locations in
the United States.
Our meteorological variables for the summer index were Temperatures (20 pts),
Humidity (15 pts), Precipitation (20 pts), ENSO (5 pts), and Climatology (10 pts). Maintaining
proper humidity in a home is significant for home improvement projects, as high humidity can
cause damage to furniture and many wooden structures. Temperature is also important for
certain appliances, such as air conditioning and heating. The general variables include
Tourism/Population (20 pts) and Location (10 pts). Since it is a busy travel season, tourism and
population are included highly, as some reside in summer homes and enjoy summer vacations.
The fall index uses meteorological variables such as Temperatures (30 pts), Humidity (10
pts), Precipitation (20 pts), Snowfall (5 pts), ENSO (5 pts), and Climatology (10 pts). Changing
temperatures in the fall is critical to complete outdoor projects, gardening, and lawn care. The
general variables include the Elevation (5 pts), Tourism/Population (5 pts), and Location (10
pts). Location is really crucial for the fall, as customer needs change dramatically from location
to location.

27 “Warmest Winter Days.” Warmest Winter Days | Climate Central. Accessed February 19, 2024.
https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/warmest-winter-days.

29
 This index features distinct zones that we have decided to focus on for each season based
on the following meteorological and general variables. Zone 1 consists of the Deep South,
extreme Southwest US, California, extreme Western Oregon and Hawaii. Zone 2 highlights the
Lower Plains, Northern portions of the Southeast and Southwest US and areas of the Pacific
Northwest. Zone 3 will feature the Mid-Atlantic region, the Ohio Valley, the Middle plains, the
greater Rocky Mountain region, the Northern Pacific Northwest, the southern Appalachians and
Alaska. Zone 4 identifies the Cascade Range, the Sierra Nevadas, the Wasatch Mountains, the
mountains of Western Colorado, a portion of the middle Appalachians, the Interior Northeast,
Great Lakes Region, High Plains and far Northern Rockies. Zone 5 is the Upper Midwest Region
and extreme northern portions of the Northeast. These zones are clearly identified in the
Seasonal Pro Weather Index legend, making it easier for Home Depot to differentiate the zones.
Our four Seasonal Pro Weather Indices follow the Winter Index example, shown below.
However, the sales will change by season due to different weather, climatological and additional
variables such as population and tourism. For example, below the green line, in the summer the
amount of sales would increase from 0-20 points to a higher value due to the meteorological
variables factored into the index, such as humidity, temperature and precipitation. Additionally,
increases in tourism throughout the summer also would be taken into account. The spring and
fall indices would largely mimic each other because of a lack of tourism and population change.
Additionally, these two seasons experience transitions. In the spring, temperatures are higher in
the winter. Additionally, in the fall, temperatures lower throughout the season. Using different
weights on all four seasons, many different factors will be taken into account in these zones.
To expand on this, our index will help Home Depots located across the entire county
determine how much inventory they need to have for a single season. Distributing weather
related seasonal products to stores on time is key to generating large amounts of profit from
higher sales.

30
 Seasonal Pro Weather Index (Winter)

Figure 22: Seasonal Pro Weather Index Winter Sample Map

Index Legend:
Zone 1: Boxed Green, Below Green Line, Value = 0-20 pts, Sales will be extremely poor
Zone 2: Below Yellow Line, Value = 20-40 pts, Sales will be slightly below average
Zone 3: Boxed Orange, Below Orange Line, Value = 40-60 pts, Sales will be near average
Zone 4: Boxed Red, Below Red Line, Value = 60-80 pts, Sales will be above average
Zone 5: Above Red Lines, Value = 80-100 pts, Sales will be exceptionally above average

If a winter storm or significant system is expected to arrive, tweaks may be needed by

individual Home Depot locations based on the severity of any impacts to their specific regions. A
personal forecaster will reach out individually to clients and present them with a map that looks
similar to the one pictured above. This will help the recipients of our data products quickly make
important business decisions that will increase Home Depot’s profitability. Our weather index,
Seasonal Pro, considers many factors across different parts of the United States. We accounted
for both meteorological and general variables in our weather index because even though the
weather is very important to Home Depot in delivering products, certain factors such as
population definitely play a role in doing business for Home Depot.

31
 Population and tourism are important non-meteorological factors, as many people flock
to certain places, such as Florida and California during the break season or the summer months.
Temperatures and precipitation are the two most important factors, as they would be essential
to predict future need for products. Immediate demand for items such as Home Depot's heating
and air conditioning systems may depend on upcoming temperatures. Precipitation is a crucial
variable as flooding can cause extensive damage and power outages, which may send consumers
looking for products to mitigate those issues.
Snowfall influences consumer purchases during the winter months in the United States, as snow
shovels, snow plows, and salt spreaders prove very important, especially in places further north
and in higher elevations. For locations that do not experience a high annual snowfall, we will
respond accordingly to winter storm events. Changing climatology is one last critical factor in
our index, as many places across the country are experiencing various effects and differences
throughout time. As part of Seasonal Pro, we study the impacts of climate change and look at
changing 30-year averages, which may impact Home Depot.

Conclusion:
Seasonal Pro is only a valid product for the Home Depot. Using this product, we aim to
increase revenue and allow for savings throughout the company. Our product uses
meteorological seasons, as weather conditions change throughout the year. We here at CWCC
are experts in our fields and have a strong meteorology background. We hope Home Depot
relies on us, and makes use of our index. This can help the company to think critically and make
effective decisions. The average seasonal impacts are very notable, but taking advantage of our
forecast consulting will allow Home Depot to prepare for natural disasters. With the growing
effects of climate change, extreme weather is more likely to occur.

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Contract:

Champion Weather Consulting Company

CWCC is the superior weather consulting company that provides seasonal weather indexes for
retail companies. We also provide 24/7 weather consulting with an hourly fee.

Services will be provided by: Matthew Howard, Patrick Minda, Ben Tomfohrde, Eric Zack or
other equally qualified Meteorologists. Company has the right to change personnel assigned to
Home Depot as long as new personnel have similar credentials. Home Depot will be notified in
writing of any changes.

Client name: Home Depot

Client business: The world's largest home improvement retailer.

Option 1: Two Seasonal Indices

With option 1 CWCC requires payment of 1% of the increased profit with a base of 25% of the
total increased profit potential. The information used to make these calculations was gathered
from Figure 18.

Percent of Total Increased Profit Potential 1% of Column 1 in Dollar Amounts

25%(Base) $479,614.75

37.50% $719,422.12

50% $959,229.49

62.50% $1,199,036.87

75% $1,438,844.24

87.50% $1,678,651.62

100% $1,918,458.99

Option 2: Four Seasonal Indices

With option 2 CWCC requires payment of 1.5% of the increased profit with a base of 25% of the
total increased profit potential. The information used to make these calculations was gathered
from Figure 18.

33
Percent of Total Increased Profit Potential 1.5% of Column 1 in Dollar Amounts

25%(Base) $719,422.12

37.50% $1,079,133.18

50% $1,438,844.24

62.50% $1,798,555.30

75% $2,158,266.36

87.50% $2,517,977.42

100% $2,877,688.48

24 hours of free consulting is provided at the original price.

Any consulting over the 24 hours costs an additional $219 per hour billed in 15 minute
increments. Consulting during overtime/holidays is paid at time and a half with an hourly rate
of $328.50 billed in 15 minute increments.

Term of Agreement:

Exclusivity: meteorology services will not be provided to any other business that competes with
Home Depot.

Non-disclosure: all information about Home Depot will remain confidential and not shared with
any other parties outside of this contract

Billing Arrangements: The base price will be billed to the company at the signing of the contract.
If CWCC increases The Home Depot Inc.’s profit by over 25% it will be compensated with either
1% or 1.5% of the increase in profit billed at the end of the fiscal year.

Signature_________________________

References & Resources

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Alex. “Snowiest Places in the United States Mapped.” Vivid Maps, 26 Jan. 2021,
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Bhatia, Aatish, and Nadja Popovich. “These Maps Tell the Story of Two Americas: One Parched,
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Fontinelle, Eric. “7 Ways Climate Change Affects Companies.” Investopedia, Investopedia,

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NOAA, www.climate.gov/data/Precipitation--Monthly--Average-for-1991-2020--CONUS/01-
small/Precipitation--Monthly--Average-for-1991-2020--CONUS--0000-01-00--small.png.
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