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Climate change influences on aviation: a literature review
Tim Ryley - Griffith Aviation, Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia

Stefan Baumeister - University of Jyväskylä, Finland and Griffith Aviation, Griffith University

Liese Coulter – University of Leeds, UK

Contact author:

Professor Tim Ryley

Head, Griffith Aviation
School of Engineering and Built Engineering, Nathan campus, Griffith University, 170 Kessels Road,
Brisbane, Queensland 4111, Australia
Telephone:- +61 (0)7 3735 5358
Email:- [email protected]

Abstract

While the aviation sector has long been referenced as contributing to the causes of climate change,
the need for aviation to adapt to the consequences of climate change has not been as well researched
or considered. The paper is a systematic quantitative literature review on climate change and aviation,
which aims to explicate significant issues affecting aviation in a changing climate and to identify the
aviation industry responses on climate change and adaptation. There are 46 references involved in
the detailed assessment, selected according to variables such as methodology, paper outcomes and
industry stakeholder. This emergent aviation and climate change adaptation literature could be
broadened to cover more disciplines and approaches, an increased range of aviation stakeholders and
go further beyond the larger airport case studies in developed countries. Further practical and policy
developments are needed, particularly surrounding adaptation planning in aviation and the social
justice implications of associated policies.

Keywords: Climate change, adaptation, aviation industry, literature review

1
1. Introduction
The growth in air travel has been accompanied by increasing concerns surrounding the associated
environmental implications, seen as externalities (Dessens et al., 2014; Kilic et al., 2019). As such, the
aviation sector is a major contributor to climate change, and the proportion attributed to aviation is
set to increase because it is one of the hardest sectors to achieve greenhouse gas emission reductions
(Andres and Padilla, 2018; Bows-Larkin et al., 2016; Schafer and Waitz, 2014). This is especially the
case when compared to other forms of energy consumption, such as industrial and domestic use
(Banister, 2019). Much of the research focus has been on greenhouse gas mitigation measures to
reduce the environmental impacts from aviation.

Climate change has started to impact aspects of human environmental interactions (IPCC, 2014a).
While the aviation sector has long been referenced as contributing to the causes of climate change
through greenhouse gas emissions, the need for aviation to adapt to the consequences of climate
change has not been well researched or considered (Burbidge, 2018; Thompson, 2016). Adaptation
considers how impacts and risks caused by climate change can be reduced and managed, while
emission reductions are designed to mitigate the causes of climate change (IPCC, 2014b). There are
high levels of natural variability in the climate system, evidenced by extreme weather events causing
heat waves, droughts and floods. According to Burbidge (2018), the projected climate impacts
affecting aviation most directly are changes in precipitation and temperature, sea-level rise, wind
changes and the impacts of more extreme weather events. In addition, climate change shifts the
parameters of the systems that underpin weather patterns, to provide new sets of impacts and risks
that will require different management strategies (Dilling et al., 2015).

The paper is a systematic quantitative literature review on climate change and aviation, with two
associated aims. Firstly, to explicate significant issues affecting aviation in a changing climate.
Secondly, to identify the aviation industry responses to climate change and adaptation. The focus is
on aviation actors and interests considering climate change implications and policies rather than the
chemistry, engineering and other physical drivers and constraints to accomplish a specific pathway to
adaptation.

The next section outlines the methodology behind our systematic review of climate change and
adaptation. Sections 3 and 4 discuss the review findings and present conclusions, respectively.

2. Methodology
The systematic quantitative literature review was conducted in October 2019. Three databases
(Scopus, Web of Science and ProQuest) were searched to capture peer-reviewed industry and
academic publications, using broad aviation and climate change search criteria. The search terms were
“air transportation”, “aviation” or “civil aviation” and “greenhouse gas”, “global warming” or “climate
change”. The search included title, abstract and keywords and was limited to works published within
the past 20 years. The search under these criteria in all three databases resulted in a total number of
6,222 publications.

2
In a second stage, all 6,222 publications were evaluated for their fit with our study. First, all duplicates
and non-climate records were removed. In terms of non-climate records publications were rejected:
where aviation was only related to remote sensing or data collection; where aviation was only related
to environmental goals or sustainability but not climate change causes or consequences; where
emissions related to pollution but not climate change, carbon dioxide or greenhouse gases; and where
alternative fuels and practices were sought for cost saving, health and other goals without
acknowledging climate change mitigation or adaptation issues. The relationship between aviation,
climate change and vector-borne disease risk was another emerging area of concern, however, no
records focused on the impacts these issues might have on aviation, so none were retained.

In a third stage, we removed all non-adaptation records. These could roughly be classified into three
groups. The first group focused on mitigation related to the contributions of aviation to climate change
through fuel emissions and contrails of frozen condensed water, or to the exploration of emission
reduction solutions through engineering and alternative fuel innovations. The second group focused
on trade and cost issues, especially on cost of emission reductions, or potential carbon trading or
taxations schemes which had not yet included aviation. The third group of publications that were
removed covered mainly passenger choices and behavioral change to achieve emissions reductions,
as well as carbon neutral programs and additional energy efficiency aims. Even though references
predominantly focused on mitigation measures were removed, some papers focusing on adaptation
that also contain mitigation aspects, remained in the sample.

In a fourth stage, we removed any remaining publications that were not related to climate change
influences on aviation. This left 92 records, which in a fifth stage underwent a full-text analysis that
yielded 46 publications suitable for our study. A flow diagram for the selection of articles is shown in
Figure 1. In a sixth stage, the 46 remaining publications were reviewed in more detail and classified
according to the background of the research, industry response and outcomes generated, as shown
in Table 1.

Figure 1. A flow diagram for the selection of articles

3
Table 1 The study background and primary outcome from the 46 full-text papers

n Paper Study background Primary outcomes

1 Becken (2013) Literature review on Research linking climate impacts and tourism has increased to become a
tourism and climate knowledge domain in its’ own right. It now includes multiple dimensions (e.g.
change. climate impacts, adaptation, mitigation & policy), and studies have become
more integrative and critical.
2 Bows et al. Chapter within book on There are uncomfortable choices for governments. They will need to curb
(2008) aviation and climate aviation growth to ensure efficiency improvement rates stay akin to
change. passenger-km growth rates, while at the same time they will need to work on
adaptation to prepare for climate change impacts.
3 Buckley Investigation into whether It is suggested that a group of slow travellers will emerge, to supersede those
(2011) slow travel tourism trips taking short breaks, accompanied by a new group of tourism providers (e.g.
will supersede short breaks accommodation, food & communications).
under climate change.
4 Budd & Ryley Chapter examining the The aviation sector needs to identify the possible impacts of climate change
(2012) relationship between on air travel operations, both to aircraft in flight and to operations at airports.
aviation and climate A further challenge will be to devise adaptation plans that will address the
change. vulnerabilities and thus ensure safe aviation-related operations.
5 Burbidge Review of European Knowledge gaps are identified, which are raising awareness and promoting
(2016) airports adapting to climate collaboration as key steps in building climate change resilience for the
change. European and global aviation sector.
6 Burbidge Paper on climate change Further development of Burbidge (2006), paper 5, clarifying the expected
(2018) adaptation of aviation impacts for the aviation sector. Risk assessment is a key step for airport
sector. adaptation. Adaption actions to address most key risks can be identified,
though some, such as building resilience to cross-winds at an airport, may be
more challenging to address, whilst low-regrets actions and softer measures
such as training can be efficient and cost-effective.
7 Burbidge et Paper on potential Three key potential ATM climate change adaptation areas are
al. (2011) adaptation needs of air Identified: changes in the timing and location of traffic peaks and flows;
traffic management (ATM) flooding risk to airports leading to runway closures; and an increase in
to climate change. convective activity (storminess). Some impacts will not be experienced in the
short-term, but need to be considered in medium to long-term planning.
8 Butterworth- Review on forecasting the Climate change resilience is now high on the political agenda for European
Hayes (2013) effects involved with and North American governments.
climate change and
aviation.
9 Chen & Wang Review of the severe Based on data visualization and statistical analysis, the impacts of severe
(2019) weather vulnerability of weather events on HSR and aviation’s on-time performance vary spatially and
aviation and High Speed temporally. HSR is generally less vulnerable. Operations in the southeast
Rail (HSR) in China. region of China are affected more frequently by rain and thunderstorms,
central-eastern China is more vulnerable to snowstorms.
10 Coffel & Examination of climate Aircraft improvements may help the situation, but airports will generally need
Horton (2015) change and the impact of longer runways and space-constrained airports are projected to have many
extreme temperatures on more weight restriction days.
aviation.
11 Coffel et al. Examination of the impacts Medium/long-range aircraft and airports with short runways on high
(2017) of rising temperature on elevations are the most affected by rising temperatures.
aircraft take-off
performance.
12 Cooper et al. Examination of the Isostatic unloading of glaciers will trigger more volcanic activity, leading to
(2018) relationship between interruptions in aviation (e.g. from ash cloud).
climate change and
volcanism.
13 Debortoli et Analysis of the climate A climate change vulnerability index is developed using aviation and marine
al. (2019) change vulnerability of sectors to assess both biophysical and social components. Adaptation is
Arctic aviation and marine needed to ensure a service to communities that are dependent on aircraft
transportation. services.
14 Eijgelaar et al. Exploration of the paradox Operators increasingly take tourists to destinations threatened by climate
(2010) of climate ambassadorship change, with Antarctica and other polar regions as favourites and cruise ship
and ‘last chance tourism’. and aircraft as main transport modes. A survey found no evidence for the

4
n Paper Study background Primary outcomes
hypothesis that the trips develop greater environmental awareness, change
attitudes or encourage more sustainable future travel choices.
15 Gray (2008) Think-piece in response to Climate change impacts of airports at very low elevation are studied. Changes
previous article on aviation in humidity and flood patterns will affect low lying airports and aircraft
and climate from a performance.
meteorology perspective.
16 Gultepe et al. Review of high impact Even short duration weather extremes affect the take-off performance of
(2019) weather for aviation aircraft. Improvements are needed to the measurement of weather and
meteorology. modelling approaches associated with aviation forecasting.
17 Hane (2016) Comment on paper 10, Climate change and extreme temperature may have less economic impact
climate change and the than previously assessed.
impact of extreme
temperatures on aviation.
18 Hayhoe et al. Modelling paper of the A City of Chicago modelling framework enables quantitative estimates of the
(2009) climate change impacts on economic impacts of climate change. It is determined that energy and
urban energy and infrastructure impacts, including airport operations, and covering both costs
infrastructure: A Chicago and savings, are driven primarily by increases in mean annual temperature
case study. and secondarily by increases in the frequency of extreme-heat events and
decreases in cold days. Even partial success at reducing emissions could
produce a disproportionately large reduction in economic costs.
19 Hepburn & Article proposing an Given the nature and scale of the aviation greenhouse gas emissions
Muller (2010) adaptation levy. challenge, the paper outlines a proposal for an International Air Travel
Adaptation Levy (IATAL) to support developing countries.
20 Hu et al. Examination of the spatial Infrastructure exposure across energy, transport, and waste sectors is
(2016) exposure of Chinese system considered. Regions identified in China to be particularly affected by flooding
infrastructure to flooding covers around 103 million infrastructure users. Sub-sectors including rail,
and drought hazards. aviation, shipping, electricity and waste water will be particularly affected.
21 Jenamani et Assessment of the impact Data between 1995-2005 on thunderstorms and squalls is analysed, with
al. (2009) of thunderstorms and weather statistics generated (temperature, wind speed, humidity & sea level
squalls at New Delhi airport pressure). Overall, thunderstorms have increased 12% since 1950-1980, with
on the environment. a particularly high increase in June (51%) and May (26%).
22 Kim et al. North Atlantic oscillation The wind-optimal routes that minimize the total flight time by considering
(2016) impacts on transatlantic wind variations are modelled between New York and London. Consequently,
flight routes and clean-air eastbound wind-optimal routes are faster but have higher probabilities of
turbulence. encountering clear-air turbulence than westbound ones.
23 Kreuz et al. Report on consequences of Road traffic, freight transport on transport corridors and passenger flows in
(2012) extreme weather on large cities are particularly affected by delays. Aviation will suffer from
European transportation extreme weather events in the future due to increased wind gusts and to free
networks. capacity currently used as a buffer to weather events being occupied by
additional flights.
24 Lee et al. Examination of the wind Wind shear on the North Atlantic upper-level jet stream increased by 15%
(2019) shear increase in the North between 1979-2017. Results indicate climate change may be having a larger
Atlantic upper-level jet impact on the North Atlantic jet stream than previously thought. The effects
stream. of climate change and variability on the upper-level jet stream are being
partly obscured by the traditional focus on wind speed rather than wind
shear.
25 Lopez (2016) Methodology trialled to A vulnerability assessment method is presented, based on a climate change
assess climate change scenario that French airports might face by the year 2100. A risk matrix
vulnerability of airports in identifies strengths and weaknesses of the aerodrome. Airport operators can
France. identify where to focus their effort in order to increase their resilience.
26 Mäkelä et al Examination of the impact Cold-season thunderstorms are rare events, which increase their threat to
(2013) of cold-season aviation safety; both pilots and forecasters can be surprised when they occur.
thunderstorms in Finland Furthermore, especially at high latitudes, these thunderstorms occur often in
on aviation safety. the dark, which adds to their physiological effect on the pilots. Some of the
forecasting tools used in the warm season can also be used in the cold season.
27 Moriarty & Exploration of transport Major changes in transport technology and fuels are expected, in response to
Honnery technology and travel perceived constraints such as oil depletion and global warming. The inevitable
(2004) volumes out to the year uncertainty in long-term forecasting will be exacerbated by these constraints.
2050, mainly in A larger role for government is to reduce uncertainty and provide a more
industrialised countries. sustainable transport system.

5
n Paper Study background Primary outcomes
28 Nemeth et al. Analysis of the influence of The influence of climate change on selected aircraft types and consequently
(2018) climate change on air traffic flow management, environment, fuel consumption, emissions,
European aviation. delays and aviation safety. In particular, changes in temperatures and flight
altitudes leads to longer flight times and increased emissions
29 Neumann et Examination of climate From model outputs, the impacts of climate change in this sector could be
al. (2015) change risks to US large as sea-level rises, temperature increases, and precipitation patterns
infrastructure: roads, become more extreme and affect the sustainability of long-lived
bridges, coastal infrastructure. Economic impacts can be reduced by proactive and cost-
development and urban effective adaptation measures.
drainage.
30 Palin et al. Examination of seasonal Relationships examined between the observed and forecast North Atlantic
(2016) forecast of Winter Oscillation and a variety of UK winter impacts on transport in the road, rail,
disruption to the UK and aviation sectors. This includes weather-related delays to flights leaving
transport system. London Heathrow Airport.
31 Pejovic, An Impact analysis of a The system disruptions assessed are delays, flight rerouting or diversions to
Noland et al. short closure at London alternate airports, and flight cancellations. Estimates suggest values between
(2009) Heathrow Airport. €700,000 and €1,250,000 for a one-hour airport closure. Carbon costs
associated with the closure could add €230,000–340,000, while external cost
estimates can range up to €1,400,000.
32 Pejovic, Examination of factors A climate model has been developed for London Heathrow Airport over up to
Williams et al. affecting the frequency and the year 2050. It demonstrates that extreme weather (thunderstorm, snow &
(2009) severity of airport weather fog) increase the chance of weather-related delay by more than 25%, and an
delays. increase in wind speed of 1 knot above the mean increases the probability of
delay by 8%.
33 Pentelow & An impact analysis of Results from a tourism arrivals model indicate that under current climate
Scott (2011) international climate policy proposals, reductions in tourist arrivals from major European and North
policies on the Caribbean American markets would be negligible, given ‘business as usual’ growth
tourism industry. projections. Only the most stringent policy scenario shows a significant
decrease in tourist arrivals. An adaptation policy assessed could provide
economic benefits to the Caribbean region.
34 Prussi & Lonza A comparison of emission The study assessed the environmental impact of modal substitution of air
(2018) profiles on European transport with HSR, based on seven routes in the EU. The results indicate the
aviation and High Speed advantage of HSR in terms of direct carbon emissions per passenger km.
Rail (HSR) routes. Compared to a base-level scenario of an annual passenger increment of 3.5%,
a HSR substitution of around a quarter of passengers is estimated to generate
greenhouse gas emission savings of around 22%.
35 Pümpel A review of regulatory Climate change is likely to lead to a higher incidence of extreme weather
(2016) responses to the impacts of events and may change the regional distribution of those events. Aviation
intensifying weather events regulators may wish to take action to reduce exposure to extreme weather
on aviation safety. events, and to provide robust safety procedures when such exposures occur.
36 Ren et al. An Impacts study of climate Climate models are used to examine the impacts of high temperatures on
(2019) warming on maximum aircraft maximum take-off weight (MTOW) and payload. The most extreme
aviation payloads. changes are at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. This is a 5%
decrease in MTOW, or a reduction in payload of between 8.5% and 19%
(aircraft dependent). The global average change is about 1%.
37 Scott et al. A report on the Paris An overview of the key provisions of the Paris Agreement that are most
(2016) Climate Change Agreement relevant to tourism shows: much strengthened and world-wide participation
and its implications for in greenhouse gas emission reduction ambitions, an enduring framework for
tourism. increased ambitions over time, improved transparency in emissions reporting
and a greater emphasis on climate risk management through adaptation.
International air travel is discussed, and aviation industry ambitions are
broadly aligned with those in the tourism sector.
38 Storer et al. A study on the global Climate model simulations over 2050-2080 are used study the impact that
(2017) response to clear-air climate change could have on global clear-air turbulence, one of the largest
turbulence caused by causes of weather-related aviation incidents. Large relative increases in clear-
climate change. air turbulence are especially found in the midlatitudes in both hemispheres,
with some regions experiencing several hundred per cent more turbulence.
The largest increases are also experienced in the busiest international
airspace.
39 Storer, Gill et A modelling study to better This study applies multi-model ensemble forecasting to aviation turbulence
al. (2019) predict aviation turbulence. for the first time. A 12 month global trial yields an improvement in forecast

6
 n Paper Study background Primary outcomes
value at low cost/loss ratios. Using a multi-model approach is an effective way
to improve the forecast skill and provide pilots and flight planners with more
information about forecast confidence, allowing for more informed decisions
about required actions such as diverting around turbulence or requiring
passengers and crew to fasten their seatbelts.
40 Storer, A review of the dynamics of Turbulence will increase in frequency and strength with climate change, and
Williams et al. aviation turbulence, its therefore, turbulence forecasting may become more important. Current
(2019) response to climate change methods of forecasting are unable to predict every turbulence event, and
and current forecasting research is ongoing to find the best solution to this problem by combining
methods. turbulence predictors and using ensemble forecasts to increase skill.
41 Suhrbier Impact study of climate US Gulf Coast (Alabama to Texas) case study examines average and extreme
(2008) change and variability on temperatures and precipitation, along with changes in sea level, land
transport long-range subsidence, and the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. Transport planners
planning and investment. are shown to have little or no understanding of the complex climate change
issues and need to be increasingly multimodal and collaborative.
42 Thompson An overview of climate Sub-sectors such as airports, airlines, aircraft manufacturers, airspace safety
(2016) impacts on the commercial and navigation organizations will encounter different climate change effects.
air transport industry. Adaptation planning is perhaps most advanced for airports located in coastal
regions and concentrates on storm-water management and inundation
prevention. Other climate effects on aircraft performance and
flight/passenger safety are being investigated but are not yet part of the
adaptation-planning landscape.
43 Vorster et al. Development of 2050 Three meta-level scenarios are developed and described. Two undesirable
(2013) scenarios for long-haul scenarios are labelled “grim reaper” & “fallen angel”. In contrast, the desired
tourism under the evolving “green lantern” scenario represents a future where long-haul tourist
climate change regime. destinations heed early warning signals and contribute towards realising the
desired future. Scenarios show risks decrease if aviation-based tourism
hedges against risks, and seizes new opportunities
44 Williams A letter on transatlantic Changes in transatlantic flights between London and New York are examined
(2016) flight times and climate when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is doubled. A
change. modelled strengthening of the prevailing jet-stream winds causes eastbound
flights to significantly shorten and westbound flights to significantly lengthen
in all seasons. The extrapolation of results to all transatlantic traffic, assuming
no future growth, suggests that aircraft will collectively be airborne for an
extra 2,000 hours each year, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at
a cost of US$ 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg of carbon dioxide.
45 Yair (2018) A review of lightning Reviews trends to assess vulnerability to future lightning activity in different
hazards to human societies scenarios. Although it is hard to precisely predict what future lightning
in a changing climate. distributions will look like, the combination of large metropolitan areas,
increased population and a warmer climate almost guarantee an
intensification of the human exposure to lightning hazard. Aviation will be
increasingly affected by thunderstorms, lightning and related weather
phenomena, such as hail, heavy rain, turbulence and downbursts.
46 Zhou et al. An examination of The effects of climate change on the take-off performance of aircraft,
(2018) decreased take-off including take-off distance and climb rate, are examined and quantified.
performance of aircraft due Changes of temperature and pressure altitude under climate change will lead
to climate change. to longer take-off distances and lower climb rates. For example, the Boeing
737-800 aircraft results show it will require additional 3.5–168.7 metres take-
off distance in future summers.

The structure of the discussion of review findings has a logical flow. Initially there is a summary of the
sample and paper methodology (Section 3.1), before presenting adaptation as a concept for aviation
and climate change (Section 3.2). Sections 3.3 to 3.5 align with the first aim, to explicate significant
issues affecting aviation in a changing climate. Section 3.3 covers studies that examine aviation in the
wider context of transport and infrastructure. Sections 3.4 and 3.5 are methodological in nature,
covering the literature with policy and modelling approaches respectively. The final discussion section
(Section 3.6) aligns with the second aim, discussing the aviation industry responses on climate change
and adaptation.

7
3. Discussion of the review findings
3.1 Summary of the sample and methodologies

The 46 references date from 2004 onwards and, as expected, increase in annual numbers until the
search in October 2019. Most of the references are either review-based or have a quantitative
modelling approach. One concern expressed in the literature is that research tends to focus more on
developed than developing countries (Becken, 2013), which is also reflected within the 46 references.
Without making a precise definition of a developing country, we note that most references focused
on developed countries in North America and Europe. The four case study references outside these
areas are studies on: tourism in Caribbean island states (Pentelow and Scott, 2011), the impact of
weather at New Delhi airport (Jenamani et al., 2009), the exposure of Chinese infrastructure to
flooding and drought (Hu et al., 2016) and the weather vulnerability of aviation and High Speed Rail in
China (Chen and Wang, 2019).

Much of the data incorporated in the references is secondary in nature. However, one paper reports
a survey to determine the level of environmental awareness amongst cruise passengers (Eijgelaar et
al., 2010). Another study interviews tourists (Buckley, 2011) to determine attitudes towards slow
travel for leisure travel short breaks. The review-based studies include book chapters (e.g. Bows et al.,
2008) or academic journal articles (e.g. Becken, 2013). Many of the references consider climate change
and aviation adaptation from a tourism perspective, either developing a review across the whole
discipline (e.g. Becken, 2013), or a tourism-focused case study, such as the paper by Pentelow and
Scott (2011) on some of the Caribbean island states. A more recent stream of literature focuses on
meteorological changes and how aviation should adapt to those (e.g. Gultepe et al., 2019).

3.2 Adaptation as a climate change concept for aviation

In 2016, an international agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions was brokered by the UN in
Paris. This regulatory instrument was originally agreed by 196 countries at the 21st Conference of the
Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (Scott et al.,
2016). As described by Scott et al. (2016), the Paris Agreement provides a significant and much
enhanced emphasis on adaptation and building climate resilience, in acknowledgement of the
consequences of climate change which had become unavoidable. As reported within the sample
publications, the adaptation concept for aviation can be categorized into three elements. Firstly, air
travel faces climate change disruptions at airports due to greater and more frequent temperature
extremes and changes in precipitation and wind, as well as rising sea levels (Burbidge, 2018; Chen and
Wang, 2019; Yair, 2018). Secondly, disruptions occur in the air due to changing atmospheric patterns
and less predictable extreme weather events (Cooper et al., 2018; Lee et al., 2019; Storer et al., 2019).
Thirdly, there are disruptions from changing patterns in passenger demand as holiday destinations are
affected by climate impacts which can make them less attractive and sometimes inaccessible
(Debortoli et al., 2019; Hu et al., 2016).

Burbidge (2018) discussed widely the impacts of climate change on various aviation industry
stakeholders and shows new pathways towards adaptation and climate change resilience. Based on
the outcomes of a EUROCONTROL (European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation) workshop,
Burbidge (2018) presented four key priorities for taking action: 1) understanding the problem, 2)
assessing the problem, 3) actions to adapt and 4) communication and collaboration.

8
3.3 References linking transport and infrastructure to climate change

Within aviation studies, such as Palin et al. (2016), disseminated findings are broadly relevant across
all Government and transport sectors. The sample also includes many references covering transport
and infrastructure aspects to be considered in relation to climate change impacts.

There are US-based studies that examine nation-wide infrastructure (roads, bridges, coastal
development and urban drainage) impacts (Neumann et al., 2015) or a more regional focus on
transport planning practice for four US Gulf Coast states (Suhrbier, 2008). A case study in the city of
Chicago (Hayhoe et al., 2010) addresses general weather impacts on energy and infrastructure
stakeholders, citing aviation as one affected city department, particularly vulnerable to temperature
and snowfall extremes. The goal of such papers is typically to quantify the economic impacts of future
climate change effects to inform adaptation decisions.

Two studies in Europe and China consider climate change vulnerability of aviation and high-speed rail
(HSR), focusing on the stability and reliability of the entire transportation system. The European study
found that HSR is expected to be less affected by climate change and recommends a modal shift on
routes where airlines currently compete with HSR, under a collaborative approach between air and
rail (Prussi and Lonza, 2018). In contrast, the Chinese study (Chen and Wang, 2019) found that aviation
and HSR are both affected by climate change, but in different ways, so interruptions might not appear
simultaneously. Therefore, the study recommends that when one travel mode is interrupted, a modal
shift should be made easier for passengers to switch their transport options.

A further Chinese study considers the spatial exposure of infrastructure to flooding and drought (Hu
et al., 2016). The spatial modelling links users and infrastructure assets, to inform analysis of climate
hot spots. Regions particularly affected by flooding and drought showed impacts on infrastructure
organizations, including aviation stakeholders.

The European EWENT (Extreme Weather Impacts on European Networks of Transport) project
considered the consequences of extreme weather across all transport modes (Kreuz et al., 2012). The
study had a three-stage quantitative approach to: 1) examine weather impacts on transport, 2)
identify corridors or hotspots, and 3) discuss cost implications. It determined that all transport modes
will be affected by delay, particularly on high-density routes. Aviation stakeholders responsible for
infrastructure, safety and operators will be particularly affected by more extreme weather events (an
increase in wind gusts is stressed), and lower airport capacity from increased demand may add further
stress to the system.

3.4 Policy and regulation responses within the literature

Several studies review aviation and climate change policy. As an extra-national sector, aviation was
not included in the Paris Climate Agreement. The role of implementation for aviation instruments is
the responsibility of International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). There has been a long-running
debate of economic appraisal for an international air travel adaptation levy (IATAL), which could be
international (now the ICAO example), regional (e.g. EU Emission Trading Scheme), or national
(Hepburn and Muller, 2010). In a proposal for an adaptation levy, conceptions of financial advantage
and social justice are employed to suggest that some profits from aviation generated through
greenhouse gas emissions should be leveraged to pay for adaptation among the disadvantaged
(Hepburn and Miller, 2010).

If aviation greenhouse gas emissions are counted similarly to national greenhouse gas emissions, it
would rank as a top ten emitter (Campos, 2016), making the threat of inclusion in regulation a more
immediate financial concern for aviation than adapting to the current effects of climate change on

9
operations. However, when attention is shifted to the tourism sector, a significant stakeholder in civil
aviation, the need to adapt to climate change impacts becomes more immediate. Almost all nations
are included in the Paris Agreement which includes provision for both mitigation and adaptation
through building climate resilience (Scott et al., 2016).

A policy response is also needed from a wide range of aviation stakeholders (Storer, Gill et al., 2019).
For example, aviation safety regulators will have to respond to the impacts of intensifying weather
events on flight safety, by developing more robust safety procedures and new meteorological services
(Pümpel, 2016; Storer, Gill et al., 2019).

3.5 Modelling aviation adaptation to climate change

The modelling effort reported within the references ranges from initial calculations and statistical
analysis to in-depth and complex quantitative modelling. Initial research into climate impacts affecting
aviation were centred on traditional types of weather-related disruptions. These include increased
wind speeds as well as changing patterns of thunderstorms, lightning, snow, and fog (Pejovic,
Williams, Noland and Toumi, 2009; Yair, 2018). EUROCONTROL identified adaptation issues for air
traffic management, particularly through projected changes in passenger demand based on local
temperature changes, sea-level rise impacts on airport capacity and the effects of increased
storminess for on-route operations (Burbidge et al., 2011).

The focus is typically on direct weather impacts (from climate change) on the aviation system, but
some models can incorporate associated complications such as clear-air turbulence (e.g. Storer, Gill
et al., 2019), and generate a range of outcomes, such as safety as well as the standard cost
implications. To demonstrate the factors typically involved, Burbidge et al. (2011) model three aspects
related to the effects of climate change on air traffic management: 1) shifts in demand, 2) loss of
airport capacity, and 3) increase in extreme weather events.

Hane (2016) examines the impact of extreme temperatures on transatlantic aviation, calculating flight
times between New York LaGuardia and Los Angeles airports that incorporate data on take-off weight,
fuel, load, aircraft design and take-off power. Coffel et al. (2017) model rising temperatures on aircraft
take-off performance across five aircraft designs and nineteen major airports. It is estimated that on
average, 10%-30% of flights may require some weight restrictions, a non-trivial cost. Weight
restrictions will particularly affect mid-to-large aircraft and airports with short runways, high
temperatures and a high elevation. Similarly, Ren et al. (2019) found that an increase in extreme
temperatures may lead to a decrease in aircraft maximum takeoff weight by 5% and decreased
payload of 1% as a global average. Gultepe et al. (2019) findings further add, that as temperatures
increase, airlines might have to reschedule flights in the future to avoid the hottest times of the day.

Nemeth et al. (2018) found that weather changes caused by climate change will lead to longer flight
times, delays and increased emissions. By analyzing an actual flight in various conditions and flight
levels they show the importance of changes in flight operations to adapt to the new conditions.

A cluster of references consider climate impacts to aviation through changes in clear-air turbulence
(CAT). Storer, Gill et al. (2017) run climate model simulations 2050-2080 for CAT and show that under
a high warming scenario it will more than double in some areas, particularly at higher altitudes. Kim
et al. (2016) examine North Atlantic oscillation impacts on transatlantic flight routes, modelling the
route between John F. Kennedy International Airport, New York and London Heathrow Airport.
Climate change related weather impacts will cause deviations in flight speeds and pathways, affecting
long-haul strategic planning. Williams (2016) generates climate simulation models of flights between
London and New York to examine potential high-level impacts of climate change on transatlantic flight

10
times. The effect of doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide from pre-industrial levels would increase
flight times overall, although additional work is required to consider turbulence and contrails. Some
research identifies where impacts can already be attributed to climate change. According to Lee et al.
(2019) as an outcome of climate change, wind shears on the upper levels of the North Atlantic jet
stream have increased by 15% during the studied period of 1979-2017 causing more turbulences and
hazards for flights.

Coffel and Horton (2015) examine the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation using circulation
models and projections for one aircraft (Boeing 737-800) and four airports (Phoenix, Denver, New
York LaGuardia and Washington Reagan National). They demonstrate expected economic impacts
from climate change on the airline industry, including airports that may need longer runways. Zhou et
al. (2018) reported similar findings from takeoff performance data of a Boeing 737-800 at 30 major
airports from 1976 to 2100. With increasing temperatures, takeoff distances increase while the climb
rate decreases.

Mäkelä et al. (2013) statistically show the impact of cold-season thunderstorms in Southern Finland
on aviation safety, using 2011 data. The rare and unusual nature of these severe weather events
impede pilot training and cause knock-on effects for aviation safety and weather forecasting.

Modelling is also used to inform aviation scenario development. Moriarty and Honnery (2004)
performed an initial review that considers world transport forecasts to 2050. They grouped studies
into possible, preferred and probable transport futures to clarify different approaches to address
uncertainty in future scenarios. Vorster et al. (2013) built a suite of four scenarios focused on long-
haul tourism up to 2050, considering seven underlying drivers. These scenario storylines can be useful
for aviation stakeholders, particularly for decision making by global bodies and policymakers.

In summary, many of the modelling approaches provided indicative and exploratory studies. More
detailed quantitative approaches within a suite of models did not necessarily include methodological
details in the publication. Suggested modelling improvements include increased spatial resolution,
better data synthesis and clearly communicating uncertainty within forecasts (Thompson, 2016).

3.6 Aviation industry responses

This section discusses aviation industry responses within the same. There are 32 out of 46 papers
which state an aviation industry stakeholder, either specifically (e.g. name a particular airport) or
generically (e.g. as “airports”). The aviation industry has been categorised according to the main types
stated: airports, airlines and other stakeholders. Table 2 shows the aviation industry stakeholder
within these papers, together with the industry response (other current or needed), and these has
either been directly stated within the paper or implicitly implied.

11
Table 2 The industry response from 32 full-text papers

Industry stakeholder
n Paper Airport Airline Other Stakeholders stated Industry response
4 Budd & Ryley Airlines testing for biofuels and Ways how the aviation industry
(2012) airports at risk of flooding are should adapt are discussed. This
listed (e.g. Schiphol, Amsterdam includes airports developing
and Louis Armstrong, New Orleans effective strategies in response to
  - are below mean seal level). adverse weather conditions, and
Governments implementing
vulnerability assessments for key
national operators, including
aviation stakeholders.
5 Burbidge EU airports are generically stated. The focus is on how European
(2016) The work is based on a survey of airports can adapt to climate
 -  35 EU stakeholders, mainly Air change.
Navigation Service Providers and
airport operators.
6 Burbidge This paper is a generic review A review of action points for
(2018) () () () across airports, airlines and other adaptation in the aviation industry.
stakeholders (e.g. Eurocontrol).
7 Burbidge et 34 European airports as stated as Various ways in which the ATM
al. (2011) being at flooding risk, from 3 part of the industry needs to adapt
 -  anonymous reviews. The role of air to the impacts of climate change.
traffic management (ATM)
operators is also discussed.
8 Butterworth- Many airports are mentioned with Provides an overview of key bodies
Hayes (2013) current climate proofing plans in the aviation industry with
such as LaGuardia and Schiphol adaptive response.
 - 
airports. Other stakeholder
responses include: Eurocontrol,
TRB, NATS, ICAO & ACI.
9 Chen & Wang Various generic mentions of Cover disruption to the HSR (High
(2019) () - () airports and railways in China. Speed Rail) and aviation industry.

10 Coffel & 4 airports examined: Phoenix, Airports may need to develop

Horton (2015) Denver, London Gatwick & Ronald longer runways and space-
 - -
Reagan Washington. constrained airports will face more
weight-constrained days.
11 Coffel et al. Performance models are Airports will need to adapt,
(2017) developed using data from 19 particularly those with short
 - -
airports around the world. runways and high temperatures,
or those at high elevations.
13 Debortoli et Airports are stated generically, but Airport infrastructure needs to be
al. (2019) () -  the main paper focus is on local adapted such as runway size,
communities as stakeholders. lighting, low visibility equipment.
14 Eijgelaar et al. The cruise industry is stated a The cruise industry needs a greater
(2010) stakeholder. consideration of climate change
- - 
adaptation.

15 Gray (2008) There is a useful summary of data Airports at very low-level

 - - from Denver & Phoenix airports. elevations need to adapt.

18 Hayhoe et al. City departments, including Extremes in temperature and

(2009) () -  Aviation stated in the paper, are snowfall will affect infrastructure
affected. costs, including airport operations.
19 Hepburn & Generically covers a range of As well as airport and airlines,
Muller (2010) aviation stakeholders, particularly national, regional (e.g. EU ETS) and
() () 
policymakers. international policymakers are
affected.

12
 Industry stakeholder
n Paper Airport Airline Other Stakeholders stated Industry response
20 Hu et al. Assesses Chinese airport (around Aviation industry in China is
(2016)  - - 140) assets, users and hazard risk. exposed to flooding hazards and
will need to adapt.
21 Jenamani et Case study of a specific airport Weather patterns are changing,
al. (2009)  - - (India Gandhi International airport, and the aviation industry needs to
New Delhi). adapt.
22 Kim et al. The modelling covers routes Industry needs to adapt in terms of
(2016) between 2 international airports: long-haul strategic flight planning.
 - -
John F. Kennedy, New York and
Heathrow Airport, London.
23 Kreuz et al. Case studies cover 25 major EU For the industry, flight operations
(2012) airports. Airlines mentioned will need to be modified and made
generically. General mention of more efficient in order to mitigate
 () ()
stakeholders across all modes - for longer flight times caused by
aviation it is infrastructure, safety weather changes.
& airport operators.
25 Lopez (2016) The work is by STAC (French Develops a risk matrix of climate
technical centre for civil aviation) impacts and adaptation options for
 - 
in association with French airports airports to use.
(not named).
26 Mäkelä et al The work is based in Southern Shows thunderstorm implications
(2013)  - - Finland and so there is reference for pilot training, aviation safety
to Helsinki-Vantaa airport. and weather forecasting.
28 Nemeth et al. The analysis covers 3 international Flight operations need to become
(2018)  - - airports: Moscow Vnukovo, Pisa more efficient in order to
and Koŝice. moderate longer flight times.
29 Neumann et Study looks at US infrastructure in Work remains to better
al. (2015) - -  general, including aviation ground understand impacts on air
operations. transportation systems.
30 Palin et al. Covers UK airports, particularly More skilful seasonal weather
(2016) London Heathrow Airport as the forecasts can now be used by the
 - - largest international airport. aviation industry to manage major
transport disruptions.
31 Pejovic, London Heathrow Airport case Airports need to prepare for more
Noland et al. study generates cost values severe weather events resulting in
(2009)  () - applicable to other airports; it is airport closures.
flight focused but specific airlines
are not named.
32 Pejovic, The London Heathrow Airport case Changes in weather should be
Williams et al. study is like many similar studies considered by the industry in
(2009)  () - (including paper 31 part of same future airport planning and
research project) is flight focused expansions.
but does not name specific airlines.
33 Pentelow & The modelling is based on travel The tourism and aviation industries
Scott (2011) from 8 major international need to prepare for possible
 - - airports. reduction in tourist arrivals due to
stricter emission reduction
policies.
34 Prussi & There are 6 international airports Airports in locations with High
Lonza (2018) in the comparison (London Speed Rail as a transport
Heathrow, Paris Charles de Gaulle. alternative need to be aware of
 -  Amsterdam Schiphol, Germany carbon emission comparisons and
Frankfurt, Rome Fiumicino and modal shift implications.
Milan Linate) as well as the railway
sector.
35 Pümpel Only generic mention of airports A broad array of aviation
(2016) and airlines. A range of aviation stakeholders, including
() () 
stakeholders are included (e.g. manufacturers, air traffic control
FAA, NOAA & ICAO). specialists, airport operators,

13
 Industry stakeholder
n Paper Airport Airline Other Stakeholders stated Industry response
regulators, and air carriers will
need to adapt their technologies as
the frequency, intensity, and
location of intense weather events
changes.
37 Scott et al. As from tourism stakeholders, Aviation is excluded from the
(2016) ICAO is covered in the review. agreement, but there should be a
- -  new emphasis on climate risk
management in industry
adaptation plans.
41 Suhrbier 3 airports along the US Gulf Coast Transport planning practices need
(2008) (Alabama to Texas) examined, to be further developed by the
particularly affected by climate industry. Adaptation can use
 -  change. Other transport planning existing transportation planning
stakeholders are also covered. process if it includes greater range
of impacts, institutional
arrangements and partnerships.
43 Vorster et al. Airports and airlines (national flag The scenarios discussed require
(2013) () () - carriers & low-cost airlines) are responses from the aviation
generically stated. industry.
44 Williams The paper covers East Coast US to The industry will need to consider
(2016) West EU flights. John F. Kennedy, trade-offs to plot transatlantic
New York and London Heathrow routes that minimise journey time
 () -
Airport are stated once; airlines but do not overly increase
are not specified but relevant. turbulence potential or climate
impact.
46 Zhou et al. 30 major international airports are Airports will need to consider that
(2018) under consideration. under climate impacts increased
 - - take-off distance and decreased
climb rate can improve flight
safety.
Note:  = specifically state a stakeholder; () = generically state a stakeholder

The most pertinent industry response in the references reviewed relates to airports, typically the
significant hubs. For example, London Heathrow Airport analysis that addressed British Airways delays
(Palin et al., 2016) and New Delhi Airport where weather impacts were studied (Jenamani et al., 2009).
While sustainability plans do not address climate change impacts and adaption, airports with good
practice climate-related components in such plans were reported by Thompson (2016) to be Atlanta,
New York and London Heathrow.

Even short duration severe weather events can trigger airport closures with extensive implications.
Based on a study of short closures at London Heathrow Airport, the resulting delays, cancellations,
flight rerouting and diversions to alternate airports both increased emissions through additional fuel
use and highlighted the need to adapt to increases in the frequency and severity of weather events
(Pejovic, Williams et al., 2009). Airports at very low-level elevations are likely to be more affected by
airport closure and aircraft performance (Gray, 2008) where Denver and Phoenix for example, will
need adaptation plans for impacts such as flooding, low clouds and higher temperatures, while others
will be exposed to sea level rise. As documented by Budd and Ryley (2012), many airports are only 10-
20ft above mean sea level (Cairns Airport, Australia; Nice Airport, France; John F. Kennedy Airport,
New York), with a few below mean sea level (Schiphol Airport, Amsterdam; Louis Armstrong
International Airport, New Orleans). In addition, episodes of severe weather and lighting hazards, as
discussed by Yair (2018), pose increased hazards to airport infrastructure, risking interruptions of flight
operations. It could be summarised, therefore, that airports are currently having to adapt to adverse
weather outcomes such as flooding, but most adaptation strategies presented in the literature focus
on future requirements.

14
Although levels of climate change hazard understanding vary among airport operators, a lack of
information and awareness are a barrier to action for airports (Burbidge, 2016). Some airports (e.g.
New York LaGuardia, Amsterdam Schiphol) have developed an initial adaptation response, as have
some aviation bodies (e.g. EUROCONTROL and ICAO), as documented by Butterworth-Hayes (2013).
Lopez (2016) presents a practical methodology and potentially a tool, for airports to assess their
vulnerability to climate change though identifying impacts, calculating probability of occurrence and
evaluating the risks. Application of the tool could become automatic for aerodrome operators.

In terms of the non-airport industry stakeholders within the literature, and as shown in Table 2, airlines
are only generically stated. It is typically harder for researchers to access data from airlines, given
business sensitivities, but it is also a reflection that climate change adaptation measures are more
urgently required at airports than airlines. A wide range of other aviation industry stakeholders are
stated in the references, including air traffic management organisations, various policymaking and
regulatory bodies, and wider transport planning and infrastructure departments.

4. Conclusions

Literature linking aviation and climate change is expanding as a response to the increasing occurrence
and prominence of climate change impacts. While the aviation sector has long been referenced as
contributing to the causes of climate change, the need for aviation to adapt to the consequences of
climate change has not been as well researched or considered by the industry.

The literature on climate change and adaptation in aviation typically covers divergent approaches for
social and physical issues. The social literature undertakes reviews of literature and policy-making, and
physical research focuses more on quantitative modelling of aviation and weather data. Of the
disciplines that align with aviation, tourism generates the most references linking aviation and climate
change adaptation. Understanding climate change adaptation options for aviation faces
methodological challenges associated with uncertainty in passenger behavior, policy constraints and
technological innovation as well as uncertainty in the physical evolution of climate impacts. Research
is hampered by the need for access to both aviation and weather data, and challenges from the
multidisciplinary nature of the approaches.

The various international case studies offered a range of initial findings. One pertinent theme is the
global reach but spatial context, such that aviation is locally situated in airports, represents regional
interests though national airlines and crosses geopolitical boundaries in its operations. These
extensive networks of responsibility and interest involve all levels of governance from city planning to
the International Civil Aviation Organization, and a range of actors from individual passengers to
multinational corporations and institutions.

Climate change impacts have policy implications for many aviation stakeholders. As in other sectors,
many players within the aviation industry do not have the funding or are too short-term focused in
their business, to invest in longer-term adaptation planning processes. Aviation industry stakeholders
represented within the climate change adaptation literature tend to be the larger airports within the
developed world. There is an increasing need for wider engagement within the aviation industry to
develop and implement adaptation plans to anticipate and manage climate change risks. Social justice
implications of aviation-related climate change policies will become more visible and urgent with
continued impacts.

Much of the research identified has been engineering and data driven, and so there is scope for further
research using more qualitative approaches from the social and behavioral sciences. As the growth in

15
climate change adaptation literature for aviation shows, the concepts of climate change mitigation
and adaptation are being reframed for the industry. Further research should also review, benchmark
and provide best practice practical recommendations for the implementation of adaptation plans
within the aviation industry.

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