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    11 views5 pages

    Forecast Study Problems

    Uploaded by

    emirdurmaz200131

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 5

    Forecasting Chapter Study Problems

    a) and b)

    et
    Forecast Period Actual

    (86 + 75)/2 = 80.5 3 72 +8.5


    (75 + 72)/2 = 73.5 4 83 -9.5
    etc 77.5 5 132 -54.5
    107.5 6 65 42.5
    98.5 7 110 -11.5
    87.5 8 90 -2.5
    100.0 9 67 +33.0
    78.5 10 92 -13.5
    79.5 11 98 -18.5
    95.0 12 73 +22.0

    c) MAD = (216)/10 = 21.6


    MSE = (7175)/10 = 717.5

    MAPE = 100 1 ei  = 25.61


    
    n
     D 
    i
    Ft = Dt-1 + (1-)Ft-1

    a) FFeb = (.15)(23.3) + (.85)(25) = 24.745

    FMarch = (.15)(72.3) + (.85)(24.745) = 31.88

    FApr = (.15)(30.3) + (.85)(31.88) = 31.64

    FMay = (.15)(15.5) + (.85)(31.63) = 29.22

    b) FFeb = (.40)(23.3) + (.60)(25) = 24.32

    FMarch = 43.47

    FApr = 38.20

    FMay = 29.12

    c) Compute MSE for February through April:

    Month Error (a) Error (b)


    ( = .15) ( = .40)

    Feb 47.45 47.88


    Mar 1.56 13.17
    Apr 16.13 22.70
    MSE = 838.04 993.74

     = .15 gave a better forecast

    a) Week MA(3) Forecast

    4 17.67
    5 20.33
    6 28.67
    7 22.67
    8 21.67

    b) and c

    Week ES(.15) Demand MA(3) |err| |err|

    4 17.67 22 17.67 4.33 4.33


    5 18.32 34 20.33 15.68 13.67
    6 20.67 12 28.67 8.67 16.67
    7 19.37 19 22.67 0.37 3.67
    8 19.32 23 21.67 3.68 1.33

    6.547540 7.934
    MAD-ES MAD-MA

    Based on these results, ES(.15) had a lower MAD over the five weeks

    d) It is the same as the exponential smoothing forecast made in week 6 for the demand in
    week 7, which is 19.37 from part c).
    c) Predict the demand for the first quarter of year- 4 by using MA-6.

    a)

    Period (quarter) Demand


    1 12 0.268657 S1 0.313433
    2 25 0.559701 S2 0.761194
    3 76 1.701493 S3 1.723881
    4 52 1.164179 S4 1.201493
    5 16 0.358209
    6 32 0.716418
    7 71 1.589552
    8 62 1.38806
    9 14 0.313433
    10 45 1.007463
    11 84 1.880597
    12 47 1.052239

    Average= 44.66667
    b)

    Period
    (quarter) Demand Desasonal
    1 12 38.285714
    2 25 32.843137
    3 76 44.08658
    4 52 43.279503
    5 16 51.047619
    6 32 42.039216
    7 71 41.186147
    8 62 51.602484
    9 14 44.666667
    10 45 59.117647
    11 84 48.727273
    12 47 39.118012

    c)

    Period
    (quarter) Desasonal
    1 38.28571
    2 32.84314
    3 44.08658
    4 43.2795
    5 51.04762
    6 42.03922
    7 41.18615
    8 51.60248
    9 44.66667
    10 59.11765
    11 48.72727
    12 39.11801

    13 47.40304

    Demand = (47,403) x 0,3134 =14,85

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